Lanmar
Lanmar
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avatarLanmar
2022-09-28

US Dollar Index: Long Term Cyclical Forecast Possibility

DXY is now at the 161.8 fib extension which is a very big level to pay attention to.The measured move is 119 which would be the next big resistance if price gets comfortably above 113.50 - 114. If price gets tight in the coming weeks around this level it probably signals the move isn't over. My guess is there a lot more left in the tank but we could see a pause here which can be good for risk assets short term (equities, crypto). Short term could be a week or a few days - difficult to gauge.For now take each set-up on its own merit and best not to make any assumptions.Jul 2, 2017, this is an update to m yDXY analysis from August 2015. Nothing has really changed much from that analysis except a potential top in January of 2017.Time cycles change all the time, so I have no int
US Dollar Index: Long Term Cyclical Forecast Possibility
avatarLanmar
2022-09-14

Big Tech MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMD- Head & Shoulder Pattern Galore

Big Tech - Head & Shoulder Pattern GaloreThese four big tech stocks are on thin ice.A break of these necklines suggests more downside. These levels likely indicate around 11,900 on the Nasdaq as the line in the sand.Question is, does this lead to capitulation or a longer duration downtrend.TBD...Nasdaq 11,900 level = red line$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ https://www.tradingview
Big Tech MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMD- Head & Shoulder Pattern Galore
avatarLanmar
2022-10-26

Bitcoin: Trendlines to find structure in the chaos

First off, I'll always look at horizontal levels over trendlines.Trendline scan be subjective, have a high failure rate when used in real-time trading tactics, and easily adjusted based on markets morphing over time. Another issue is the overhead supply not being visible usingtrendlines, a big reason why steeptrendlinesare prone to failures/false breakouts even when price clears thosetrendlines(you want a low degree slope in consolidation periods - this meansvolatilityis compressed).Where I do like using them is when I see many touchpoints that help visualize structure on a longer term chaotic consolidation - exactly what we're seeing withBitcoinfrom Jan 2021 - present.The chart above shows the closesttrendlinesto price where we're seeing resistance and support. Price is now
Bitcoin: Trendlines to find structure in the chaos
avatarLanmar
2023-01-14

XBI - Starting the year strong with a minor breakout

$Spdr S&P Biotech Etf(XBI)$ XBI - Starting the year strong with a minor breakoutBiotech stocks have been my focus as many are showing significantrelative strengthand posting new 52 week highs. I got long XBI yesterday on the break of $85.Something to consider - stocks well below theirall-timehighs have a lot of supply to contend with, so the probability of a smooth trend out of a base tends to be lower and raises the probability of failure. The larger degree consolidation could look like this if the selling isn't absorbed by enough buyers at resistance:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBI/fSO4xesR-XBI-Starting-the-year-strong-with-a-minor-breakout/
XBI - Starting the year strong with a minor breakout
avatarLanmar
2023-01-04

Potential monster stock (long term) - SNDX

Potential monster stock (long term) - SNDXSNDX$Syndax Pharmaceuticals(SNDX)$ is probably my favorite set-up going into 2023. Bigger picture want to see that 50 day MA hold. Looks like it could be ready to start the year strong.SNDX shows signs of strong accumulation longer term. Overall really strong base on base action and getting close to a potential breakout.Caution with all breakouts in this market -volatilityhas been significant aroundpivotareas, so the risk is much higher and probability is lower on shorter time frames.While major indices are down 25-30%, this stock is near its all time highs and within a multi-year base - exactly what you want to see in this environment.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SNDX/l9QZ2iGo-Potential-monster
Potential monster stock (long term) - SNDX
avatarLanmar
2022-09-21

Big Tech - Head & Shoulder Pattern Galore

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $AMD(AMD)$ These four big tech stocks are on thin ice.A break of these necklines suggests more downside. These levels likely indicate around 11,900 on the Nasdaq$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ as the line in the sand.Question is, does this lead to capitulation or a longer duration downtrend.TBD...Nasdaq 11,900 level = red lineComment: MSFT potential magnet and buy zone:GOOGL:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GOOGL/P0WTJ44r-Big-Tech-Head-Shoulder-Pattern-Galore/
Big Tech - Head & Shoulder Pattern Galore
avatarLanmar
2022-11-10

Bitcoin: Trendlines to find structure in the chaos

I drew a concern that the market may need a short term pump into the 21-22k spot to get the energy to breakdown. This was a classic example of a false breakout/fake move that sucked in buyers and stopped out early shorts.The next trendline (potential) support levels are 15900, followed by 14200.Volume is VERY thin until 11k, something to keep in mind..https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDTPERP/q3zgLjQc-Bitcoin-Trendlines-to-find-structure-in-the-chaos/
Bitcoin: Trendlines to find structure in the chaos
avatarLanmar
2022-10-25

ETH holding key levels: I am long

 Think a lot of crypto traders are under-positioned on the long side. *Medium term* downtrend remains intact, but think we see a rip higher off these levels at least into next key resistance. The lower risk play is to wait for more confirmation on highvolume. I am long here.ETH Monthly - Looking at ETH from a bird's eye view it's still holding firm above the weekly closing highs of 2018 and the 50 month sma:ETHBTC - I have a preference for ETH as long as it's above this level:MARA$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ is potentially front running crypto:COIN$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ setting up for a failedH&S/squeeze (still in a very strong downtrend but if it theH&Sfails we could see a
ETH holding key levels: I am long
avatarLanmar
2022-10-14

S&P 500: Buy Zone, I'm not a buyer here

SPX$S&P 500(.SPX)$ at the 50% retrace today and q4 2020 resistance which should provide support.I'm not a buyer here today but not looking to short either. See how it closes out the week. Remains a needle in a haystack environmentThe buy zone labeled in the chart is my level of interest to get long.- It's the approximate measured target for the weeklyH&Ssetup-50% retracementfrom the covid low to the all time high (3550)- 200 week moving average (see chart below)- Horizontal support from September - October 2020200 week moving average history since 1978:In 2001 and 2008 price was not able to reclaim the 200 week moving average until after it dropped 35-45% below it. It's possible we see something similar in 2022-2023, so this isn't an obvio
S&P 500: Buy Zone, I'm not a buyer here
avatarLanmar
2022-11-08

BTU - weekly bull flag, still very bullish

$Peabody Energy Corp(BTU)$ BTU - weekly bull flag, still very bullishBTU remains one of the best looking charts on my radar as it continues to tighten in this 8+ month bull flag. Getting above 29.9 would clear out a lot of supply and has potential for an explosive move. I think this could be a multi-bagger assuming a multi-year time horizon. Invalidation occurs on a breach of the 200dma or 50wma.Think in the next 3-5 years we're going to see energy/commodity type names outperform a lot of tech -BTU has been a beast in the coal sector and for now my favorite stock in the industry. As long as that 50 week MA holds, it's likely to continue consolidating and eventually break new 52 week highs maybe all time highs next year.https://www.trading
BTU - weekly bull flag, still very bullish
avatarLanmar
2023-01-14

DDL - Small cap China name potential major bottom

$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$ DDL - Small cap China name potential major bottomDDL is a small cap China name with a well defined bottoming base.If entering early in anticipation of the break of 6.42, the stop could either be tight (below the breakout line) or wide below the 50dma (under 4.50) as a fake-out is in the cards prior to a bigger move: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DDL/drSKPV2e-DDL-Small-cap-China-name-potential-major-bottom/
DDL - Small cap China name potential major bottom
avatarLanmar
2022-07-08

VIVO - Long term monster stock potential

$Meridian Bioscience(VIVO)$ VIVO - Long term monster stock potentialThis stock is a textbook example of long term basing followed by breaking out and historically delivering returns.1987 - 1991 it consolidated then followed with a 550%+ return from breakout to peak1996 - 2004: 450%+ return from breakout to peakAfter 15 years we're seeing similar action seen in its previous major basing periods.The stock is now revisiting former all time highs set in 2007 after developing a massivecup and handlebasing structure, all while the major indices are down -20 - 30%+Good example of a multi-year hold (assuming no violations).
VIVO - Long term monster stock potential
avatarLanmar
02-23

Nasdaq 2024 Guide

Nasdaq 2024 GuideBeen a long time since I posted! Firing it up with my bigger-picture view of the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ .Longer timeframe: Multi-year cup and handle - bullish into year-endShorter timeframe: Rising wedge - potential window of weakness around the corner (end of Feb?)What's actionable about this chart?- If actively trading watch for a short-term sell signal - close below the wedge/below the prior day/week low depending on your time frame- Sell/trim into strength around 18k (top of the rising wedge)- If there's a retest of the multi-year breakout that is a great r/r add/buy spot into year-end- Fib extension from the 2022 low to the 2021 high measures to 20,650- A break below 16k w
Nasdaq 2024 Guide

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