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2022-10-20

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Truss Resigns as UK Premier After Tax-Cut Plan Backfires

2022-09-22

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She said the Conservative Party aims to choose her successor within a week, and that she will stay on as premier until then.</p><p>Candidates to replace her are likely to include former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak -- runner-up to Truss in this summer’s leadership contest. Other contenders then are also likely to be in the fray, including Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Kemi Badenoch. Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who was sacked on Oct. 19, may also be in the running. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is also often touted, though he has downplayed his interest.</p><p>But new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, promoted from the back benches after Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng in a bid to restore calm in the markets, ruled himself out, according to his spokeswoman.</p><p>Truss came to power in early September promising an all-out push for growth, but her program proved unpalatable to financial markets as both the pound and gilts tanked amid concerns about how she’d pay for her economic plans.</p><p>Her departure leaves the ruling Conservative Party badly damaged, languishing more than 30 points behind Labour inthe pollsafter 12 1/2 years in power. Her successor will become the party’s fifth premier in less than seven years since the 2016 Brexit referendum ushered in a period of unprecedented chaos in British politics.</p><p>Whoever it is will face a formidable task in repairing the Tory party’s reputation and the economy in time for a general election which must take place in January 2025. Truss’s tenure has all but guaranteed post-Brexit Britain’s immediate future is one of higher borrowing costs, weak growth, tax hikes and spending cuts.</p><p>“It’s a shambles and a disgrace,” veteran Tory MP Charles Walker told the BBC on Oct. 19. “The damage they have done to our party is extraordinary.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44667704a5311e8a60ce926ecefab1e3\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Truss’s undoing was ultimately a lack of political instinct and awareness of economic reality.</p><p>After narrowly winning the leadership without the backing of most MPs, she set out to govern as if she had secured an overwhelming mandate with a barrage of radical measures. Inheriting a divided party, she appointed loyalists to key jobs rather than reaching out to her opponents. And when, at the last, she tried to stamp her authority on the party, she only provoked its anger.</p><p>The central mistake of Truss’s term was a massive £45 billion ($50 billion) package of tax cuts, amid the strongest inflation in four decades, that she drew up with Kwarteng and unveiled without any independent analysis of how it would be funded.</p><p>The latest in global politicsGet insight from reporters around the world in the Balance of Power newsletter.Sign up to this newsletter</p><p>The biggest tax giveaway in half a century went further and faster than Truss had signaled during the leadership contest, and the markets reacted violently amid fears it would hamper the battle against inflation and destabilize the public finances. The pound’s tumble to an all-time low against the dollar and the imminent threat of a rout in gilts forced the Bank of England to intervene to prevent a key part of the pensions industry from collapsing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2461bf95e6c4f2853566b6c30f815768\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Truss and Kwarteng tried to repair the damage by firstreversingan unpopular move to abolish the 45% rate of income tax on the UK’s highest earners. Then on Oct. 14 TrusssackedKwarteng and scrapped their plan to freeze corporation tax next year. Huntunpickedmost of what remained of the economic strategy three days later, leaving the premier’s credibility shot.</p><p>The final humiliation came on Wednesday evening as the desperate prime minister tried to corral her angry MPs into the voting lobbies in the House of Commons for a make-or-break ballot that she had no reason to take on. Braverman’s dismissal earlier in the evening for a security breach that in normal times might have earned her a mere reprimand had already alienated a swathe of the right of the party.</p><p>Truss won the vote, but in the bitter aftermath she lost her struggle to stay in power.</p><h2>Liz Truss’s speech in full:</h2><blockquote>“I came into office at a time of great economic and international instability. Families and businesses were worried about how to pay their bills. Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine threatens the security of our whole continent. And our country has been held back for too long by low economic growth.</blockquote><blockquote>“I was elected by the Conservative Party with a mandate to change this. We delivered on energy bills and on cutting national insurance. And we set out a vision for a low tax high growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit.I recognize though given the situation I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party. I have therefore spoken to His Majesty the King to notify him that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party.</blockquote><blockquote>“This morning I met the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady. We’ve agreed that there will be a leadership election to be completed within the next week. This will ensure that we remain on a path to deliver our fiscal plans and maintain our country’s economic stability and national security. I will remain as Prime Minister until a successor has been chosen. Thank you.”</blockquote></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Truss Resigns as UK Premier After Tax-Cut Plan Backfires</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTruss Resigns as UK Premier After Tax-Cut Plan Backfires\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-20 20:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-to-announce-resignation-sky-news><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stint in office characterized by market rout and U-TurnsTruss becomes UK’s shortest-ruling premier in historyLiz Truss quit as UK prime minister after a brief and chaotic tenure that saw her announce ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-to-announce-resignation-sky-news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-to-announce-resignation-sky-news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198288029","content_text":"Stint in office characterized by market rout and U-TurnsTruss becomes UK’s shortest-ruling premier in historyLiz Truss quit as UK prime minister after a brief and chaotic tenure that saw her announce a massive package of tax cuts before unwinding most of it in the face of a market rout.Truss, 47, said she was resigning after just 44 days in office, and is set to become the shortest-ruling prime minister in British history. She said the Conservative Party aims to choose her successor within a week, and that she will stay on as premier until then.Candidates to replace her are likely to include former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak -- runner-up to Truss in this summer’s leadership contest. Other contenders then are also likely to be in the fray, including Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Kemi Badenoch. Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who was sacked on Oct. 19, may also be in the running. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is also often touted, though he has downplayed his interest.But new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, promoted from the back benches after Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng in a bid to restore calm in the markets, ruled himself out, according to his spokeswoman.Truss came to power in early September promising an all-out push for growth, but her program proved unpalatable to financial markets as both the pound and gilts tanked amid concerns about how she’d pay for her economic plans.Her departure leaves the ruling Conservative Party badly damaged, languishing more than 30 points behind Labour inthe pollsafter 12 1/2 years in power. Her successor will become the party’s fifth premier in less than seven years since the 2016 Brexit referendum ushered in a period of unprecedented chaos in British politics.Whoever it is will face a formidable task in repairing the Tory party’s reputation and the economy in time for a general election which must take place in January 2025. Truss’s tenure has all but guaranteed post-Brexit Britain’s immediate future is one of higher borrowing costs, weak growth, tax hikes and spending cuts.“It’s a shambles and a disgrace,” veteran Tory MP Charles Walker told the BBC on Oct. 19. “The damage they have done to our party is extraordinary.”Truss’s undoing was ultimately a lack of political instinct and awareness of economic reality.After narrowly winning the leadership without the backing of most MPs, she set out to govern as if she had secured an overwhelming mandate with a barrage of radical measures. Inheriting a divided party, she appointed loyalists to key jobs rather than reaching out to her opponents. And when, at the last, she tried to stamp her authority on the party, she only provoked its anger.The central mistake of Truss’s term was a massive £45 billion ($50 billion) package of tax cuts, amid the strongest inflation in four decades, that she drew up with Kwarteng and unveiled without any independent analysis of how it would be funded.The latest in global politicsGet insight from reporters around the world in the Balance of Power newsletter.Sign up to this newsletterThe biggest tax giveaway in half a century went further and faster than Truss had signaled during the leadership contest, and the markets reacted violently amid fears it would hamper the battle against inflation and destabilize the public finances. The pound’s tumble to an all-time low against the dollar and the imminent threat of a rout in gilts forced the Bank of England to intervene to prevent a key part of the pensions industry from collapsing.Truss and Kwarteng tried to repair the damage by firstreversingan unpopular move to abolish the 45% rate of income tax on the UK’s highest earners. Then on Oct. 14 TrusssackedKwarteng and scrapped their plan to freeze corporation tax next year. Huntunpickedmost of what remained of the economic strategy three days later, leaving the premier’s credibility shot.The final humiliation came on Wednesday evening as the desperate prime minister tried to corral her angry MPs into the voting lobbies in the House of Commons for a make-or-break ballot that she had no reason to take on. Braverman’s dismissal earlier in the evening for a security breach that in normal times might have earned her a mere reprimand had already alienated a swathe of the right of the party.Truss won the vote, but in the bitter aftermath she lost her struggle to stay in power.Liz Truss’s speech in full:“I came into office at a time of great economic and international instability. Families and businesses were worried about how to pay their bills. Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine threatens the security of our whole continent. And our country has been held back for too long by low economic growth.“I was elected by the Conservative Party with a mandate to change this. We delivered on energy bills and on cutting national insurance. And we set out a vision for a low tax high growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit.I recognize though given the situation I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party. I have therefore spoken to His Majesty the King to notify him that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party.“This morning I met the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady. We’ve agreed that there will be a leadership election to be completed within the next week. This will ensure that we remain on a path to deliver our fiscal plans and maintain our country’s economic stability and national security. I will remain as Prime Minister until a successor has been chosen. Thank you.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":661874998,"gmtCreate":1663854461715,"gmtModify":1676537350077,"author":{"id":"4121129507697870","authorId":"4121129507697870","name":"9a8032a","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/661874998","repostId":"1148338012","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148338012","pubTimestamp":1663851840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148338012?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-22 21:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148338012","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySBUX's financial performance over the next three quarters will be critical to its stock valua","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>SBUX&#39;s financial performance over the next three quarters will be critical to its stock valuations, given the historic winter with potentially sky-high electricity bills.</li><li>Combined with the record high oil/gas and elevated food prices thus far, we expect to see a moderate pull-back in consumer discretionary spending through Q1&#39;23.</li><li>It also remains to be seen how the new CEO would perform over the tough quarters ahead, since we already see signs of sales deceleration post reopening cadence.</li><li>Nothing burns like the cold. We shall see.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>Despite Starbucks&#39; (NASDAQ:SBUX) optimistic guidance from its Investor Day presentation in early September, it remains to be seen if the company could survive the coming winter. The Feds have proved to be very concerned about the relatively elevatedAugust CPI levels of 8.3%, leading to a 75 basis point hike on 21 September 2022. The future seems murky as well, with the persistent hawkish tone in the Feds commentaries potentially leading to another 75 basis points hike in November 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f808933b881892262a34f1048ea289\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Though SBUX may have reported decentFQ3&#39;22 earnings with robust consumer spending trends, we may see a quick turnabout soon, since food and gas prices remain inflated for now compared to pre-pandemic levels. Its revenue growth is already showing signs of deceleration QoQ and YoY, pointing to the expected normalization from the hyper-growth experienced during the reopening cadence in 2021.</p><p>Furthermore, SBUX may finally experience a short-term pullback in consumer discretionary spending over the next three quarters, significantly worsened by the elevated electricity bills over the coming winter. It would be interesting ( to say the least ) how this giant plans to survive the stormy weather, with the new CEO at its helm and the supposed &#34;final exit&#34; of its long-term CEO. We shall see.</p><p><b>SBUX&#39;s Financial Health Remains Relatively Stable Thus Far</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef29774b9857375a11daf0ada357090\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>In its recent Investor Day presentation, SBUX guided massive expansion plans ahead, with capital expenditures of up to $3B for the next three years, including $450M for existing store upgrades. In addition, the company plans to build up to 2K new locations within the US, with a total of 9K stores in China and 2K in Japan by 2025. Therefore, we expect to see a moderate increase in its debt leveraging ahead from the $13.93B reported in the last quarter. Nonetheless, investors have nothing to worry about, since only $1.75B will be maturing by the end of 2023. Thereby, moderately ensuring SBUX&#39;s liquidity ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4001ce737a5003c31c2c8b591869c624\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Furthermore, SBUX seemed well poised for its aggressive expansion, given the robust Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $3.04B and an FCF margin of 9.5% in the LTM. Though these numbers are still shy of their pre-pandemic levels by -6.17% and -2.7 percentage points, respectively, we must also highlight the company&#39;s relatively stronger cash and equivalents of $3.18B on its balance sheet in the latest quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026be14c8616abbf7b0ee8b03ae53ae6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>For now, SBUX investors seem upbeat as well, due to the company&#39;s planned $20B of capital return over the next three years, in the form of dividend hikes and share buybacks. The management has guided an average of 2% dividend yield at the same time, representing notable improvements from the previous 4Y average of 1.88%. Combined with the consistent dividend hikes of 36.11% and $6.03B in share buybacks contributing to the moderation in its share count by -5.73% since FY2019, it is no wonder that the stock has performed decently, with a 5Y Total Price Return of 78% and 10Y Return of 313.1%.</p><p>Mr. Market&#39;s Faith Has Been Restored - For Now<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f36b4a74894be4e8bfa4a648dd6174b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Over the next four years, SBUX is expected to report revenue and net income growth at an exemplary CAGR of 12.62% and 5.13%, in comparison to the 2Y pandemic CAGR of 5.73% and 8.03%, respectively. It is also evident that Mr. Market is relatively confident about the company&#39;s forward profitability, given the growth in its adj. net income margins from 9.4% in FY2019, to 10.1% in FY2021, and finally to 11.68% by FY2025.</p><p>In the meantime, SBUX is expected to report revenues of $32.15B and net incomes of $3.33B for FY2022, representing an increase of 10.63% though a decline of -20.52% YoY, respectively. This indicates FQ4&#39;22 revenues of $8.32B and net incomes of $926.7M, representing YoY growth of 2.2% though a decline of -47.47%, respectively. Otherwise, an excellent increase of 2.95% YoY in its net income after adjusting for the sale of its assets then. Impressive indeed, given the tougher YoY comparison due to the hyper revenue growth of 31.3% and net income of 229.21% experienced in FQ4&#39;21.</p><p>It is also remarkable that SBUX has optimistically guided a remarkable annual growth in its adjusted EPS by up to 20% through FY2025, despite the short-term worsening macroeconomics due to the rising inflation and the Fed&#39;s continuous hike in interest rates through CY2023. Furthermore, the company sees an impressive annual global comparable sales growth of up to 9% at the same time, contributing to its global revenue growth of up to 12% over the next three years.</p><p>Therefore, it is no wonder that the SBUX stock had rallied by 5.53% post investor day on 13 September 2022, though most of those gains are also digested by now due to the Fed&#39;s hawkish commentary on 21 September 2022. Naturally, the S&amp;P 500 Index has also been decimated with a -20.99% plunge YTD.</p><p><b>So, Is SBUX Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?SBUX 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72d1628852f3e36a1d9867fdd057ba78\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>SBUX is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 3.51x and NTM P/E of 28.27x, lower than its 5Y mean of 3.95x and 30.21x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $88.60, down -24.78% from its 52 weeks high of $117.80, though at a premium of 29.55% from its 52 weeks low of $68.39.</p><p><b>SBUX 5Y Stock Price</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdb7cfd1e8ecdd9e70b42176fbcd17a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Consensus estimates remain bullish about SBUX&#39;s prospects, given their price target of $100.31 and a 13.22% upside from current prices. However, since the stock is trading above its 50 and 100-day moving average of $85.31 and $80.39, respectively, we would like to recommend some patience instead due to the minimal margin of safety.</p><p>Winter may be coming for SBUX. We shall also await its FQ4&#39;22 performance and forward guidance in November. That would provide the key indicator of consumer demand for their ever-popular lattes and Frappuccinos.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-22 21:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542450-starbucks-winter-coming?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A7><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySBUX's financial performance over the next three quarters will be critical to its stock valuations, given the historic winter with potentially sky-high electricity bills.Combined with the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542450-starbucks-winter-coming?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A7\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542450-starbucks-winter-coming?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148338012","content_text":"SummarySBUX's financial performance over the next three quarters will be critical to its stock valuations, given the historic winter with potentially sky-high electricity bills.Combined with the record high oil/gas and elevated food prices thus far, we expect to see a moderate pull-back in consumer discretionary spending through Q1'23.It also remains to be seen how the new CEO would perform over the tough quarters ahead, since we already see signs of sales deceleration post reopening cadence.Nothing burns like the cold. We shall see.Investment ThesisDespite Starbucks' (NASDAQ:SBUX) optimistic guidance from its Investor Day presentation in early September, it remains to be seen if the company could survive the coming winter. The Feds have proved to be very concerned about the relatively elevatedAugust CPI levels of 8.3%, leading to a 75 basis point hike on 21 September 2022. The future seems murky as well, with the persistent hawkish tone in the Feds commentaries potentially leading to another 75 basis points hike in November 2022.S&P Capital IQThough SBUX may have reported decentFQ3'22 earnings with robust consumer spending trends, we may see a quick turnabout soon, since food and gas prices remain inflated for now compared to pre-pandemic levels. Its revenue growth is already showing signs of deceleration QoQ and YoY, pointing to the expected normalization from the hyper-growth experienced during the reopening cadence in 2021.Furthermore, SBUX may finally experience a short-term pullback in consumer discretionary spending over the next three quarters, significantly worsened by the elevated electricity bills over the coming winter. It would be interesting ( to say the least ) how this giant plans to survive the stormy weather, with the new CEO at its helm and the supposed \"final exit\" of its long-term CEO. We shall see.SBUX's Financial Health Remains Relatively Stable Thus FarS&P Capital IQIn its recent Investor Day presentation, SBUX guided massive expansion plans ahead, with capital expenditures of up to $3B for the next three years, including $450M for existing store upgrades. In addition, the company plans to build up to 2K new locations within the US, with a total of 9K stores in China and 2K in Japan by 2025. Therefore, we expect to see a moderate increase in its debt leveraging ahead from the $13.93B reported in the last quarter. Nonetheless, investors have nothing to worry about, since only $1.75B will be maturing by the end of 2023. Thereby, moderately ensuring SBUX's liquidity ahead.S&P Capital IQFurthermore, SBUX seemed well poised for its aggressive expansion, given the robust Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $3.04B and an FCF margin of 9.5% in the LTM. Though these numbers are still shy of their pre-pandemic levels by -6.17% and -2.7 percentage points, respectively, we must also highlight the company's relatively stronger cash and equivalents of $3.18B on its balance sheet in the latest quarter.S&P Capital IQFor now, SBUX investors seem upbeat as well, due to the company's planned $20B of capital return over the next three years, in the form of dividend hikes and share buybacks. The management has guided an average of 2% dividend yield at the same time, representing notable improvements from the previous 4Y average of 1.88%. Combined with the consistent dividend hikes of 36.11% and $6.03B in share buybacks contributing to the moderation in its share count by -5.73% since FY2019, it is no wonder that the stock has performed decently, with a 5Y Total Price Return of 78% and 10Y Return of 313.1%.Mr. Market's Faith Has Been Restored - For NowS&P Capital IQOver the next four years, SBUX is expected to report revenue and net income growth at an exemplary CAGR of 12.62% and 5.13%, in comparison to the 2Y pandemic CAGR of 5.73% and 8.03%, respectively. It is also evident that Mr. Market is relatively confident about the company's forward profitability, given the growth in its adj. net income margins from 9.4% in FY2019, to 10.1% in FY2021, and finally to 11.68% by FY2025.In the meantime, SBUX is expected to report revenues of $32.15B and net incomes of $3.33B for FY2022, representing an increase of 10.63% though a decline of -20.52% YoY, respectively. This indicates FQ4'22 revenues of $8.32B and net incomes of $926.7M, representing YoY growth of 2.2% though a decline of -47.47%, respectively. Otherwise, an excellent increase of 2.95% YoY in its net income after adjusting for the sale of its assets then. Impressive indeed, given the tougher YoY comparison due to the hyper revenue growth of 31.3% and net income of 229.21% experienced in FQ4'21.It is also remarkable that SBUX has optimistically guided a remarkable annual growth in its adjusted EPS by up to 20% through FY2025, despite the short-term worsening macroeconomics due to the rising inflation and the Fed's continuous hike in interest rates through CY2023. Furthermore, the company sees an impressive annual global comparable sales growth of up to 9% at the same time, contributing to its global revenue growth of up to 12% over the next three years.Therefore, it is no wonder that the SBUX stock had rallied by 5.53% post investor day on 13 September 2022, though most of those gains are also digested by now due to the Fed's hawkish commentary on 21 September 2022. Naturally, the S&P 500 Index has also been decimated with a -20.99% plunge YTD.So, Is SBUX Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?SBUX 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQSBUX is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 3.51x and NTM P/E of 28.27x, lower than its 5Y mean of 3.95x and 30.21x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $88.60, down -24.78% from its 52 weeks high of $117.80, though at a premium of 29.55% from its 52 weeks low of $68.39.SBUX 5Y Stock PriceSeeking AlphaConsensus estimates remain bullish about SBUX's prospects, given their price target of $100.31 and a 13.22% upside from current prices. However, since the stock is trading above its 50 and 100-day moving average of $85.31 and $80.39, respectively, we would like to recommend some patience instead due to the minimal margin of safety.Winter may be coming for SBUX. We shall also await its FQ4'22 performance and forward guidance in November. That would provide the key indicator of consumer demand for their ever-popular lattes and Frappuccinos.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}