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LeonKoh

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2023-03-22

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2022-11-22

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Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett

2022-11-04

Okay thanks

Reminder: US Trading Schedule Change Due to Daylight Saving Time

2022-10-09

Ok

Morgan Stanley-Led Banks Face $500 Million Loss on Twitter Debt

2022-10-09

Ok

Why Stock-Market Bulls Keep Falling for Fed "Pivot" Feints -- and What It Will Take to Put in a Bottom

2022-10-09

Interest

Elon Musk: "Aren’t You Entertained?"

2022-10-08

Crazy

Rivian Is Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles

2022-10-07

Ridiculous

Twitter Lawsuit Halted so Elon Musk Can Close Deal By Oct. 28

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‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943207598","repostId":"2320695595","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968974726,"gmtCreate":1669118094665,"gmtModify":1676538154418,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968974726","repostId":"2285386886","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2285386886","pubTimestamp":1669104486,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2285386886?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-22 16:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285386886","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>As a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.</li><li>But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent position in Taiwan Semiconductor is a notable example.</li><li>The choice is even more puzzling when viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple.</li><li>There are certainly positives with Taiwan Semiconductor, that is, even when compared to Apple.</li><li>However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them, which produces mutual but asymmetric damage.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511f126f81b7dac4ef1687fe1d622bbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Jamie McCarthy</span></p><h2>The investment thesis</h2><p>As a long-time Buffett cultist, I feel comfortable saying that I understand most of his investment choices. But occasionally, the grandmaster still manages to make a move that surprises me such as his recent position in TaiwanSemiconductor (NYSE:TSM). To wit, the recent 13F disclosure showed that Buffett opened a sizable position in TSM for the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) equity portfolio. As you can see from the following chart, his BRK portfolio now holds more than 60.06M shares of TSM with a total worth of over $4.11B. The TSM position is currently the 10thlargest position in the BRK portfolio.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79878ff126c58641fbbd5a5aa3c0b334\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Dataroma.com</span></p><p>The surprise comes in several ways. And the more obvious ways (like Buffett’s allergy to tech businesses) have already been discussed by several other SA authors and I won’t further add to it anymore. Here, I want to explore an angle that is less discussed so far. I want to explain why it feels more puzzling to me, that is besides the fact that Buffett added another tech name to his BRK portfolio, when the TSM position is viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). There are certainly positives with TSM, that is, even when compared to AAPL. As we will detail in the next section, it is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space and an R&amp;D yield that is even better than AAPL.</p><p>However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them and also the ongoing deglobalization mega-trend. According to a recentnews report, TSM’s scheduled price raises in 2023 were rejected by AAPL, by far its largest customer. AAPL currently outsources almost all of its processor manufacturing to factories in Taiwan. However, with the U.S. strategic initiatives to push to develop domestic semiconductor foundry capabilities, AAPL (and other U.S. chip players such Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) too) would be very likely to diversify its chip manufacturing away from TSM. And the damage will be mutual but asymmetric. It is easier for AAPL to find other foundry services to manufacture its chips, and a lot harder for TSM to find such large clients as AAPL.</p><p>The full impact of such tension and diversification will take time to fully manifest. And TSM’s role as the dominating high-end chipmaker in the world won’t change in the near term. But I see these recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of the price raises and the recent passing of the CHIPS act) as the turning point. Taking a broader view, I see these events as a logical step, or even an inevitable step, in the deglobalization process – a mega force that has been unfolding for over 10 years as shown in the chart below. The chart illustrates how globalization, measured as the percentage of total exports out of global GDP, has been in decline since its peak in 2008. The percentage has declined from 61% in 2008 to the to 51.6% in 2020. And since 2020, the China-U.S. trade tension, the COVID, and the Russian/Ukraine war have further quickened its pace.</p><p>In the remainder of this article, I will further analyze the details of these above considerations in more detail.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9d37af226f63d9047697f699ffa010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: The World Bank</span></p><h2>TSM’s valuation advantage</h2><p>First, as mentioned above, there are definitely many positives with TSM even when compared to AAPL. And valuation is an obvious place to start with. As a global leader in the foundry space, it is for sale at a fraction of the overall market and AAPL’s valuation as seen in the chart below.</p><p>To cite a few examples, TSM’s FY1 PE of 12.8x is almost only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Its TTM PE of 13.08x is also about only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Considering that these stocks have different leverages and enterprise values (“EV”), let&#39;s compare their multiples with leverages adjusted too. As you can see, TSM’s discount is even more dramatic in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples. TSM’s FW EV/EBITDA ratio sits at 7.64x only, less than ½ of AAPL’s 18.18x.</p><p>Yes, as you will see in the next section, TSM is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space, further bolstered by its consistent R&amp;D investments and also superb R&amp;D yield that even surpasses AAPL.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9101b641f06753dca5fee60c5e18ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>TSM’s more consistent and aggressive R&amp;D</h2><p>As detailed in our earlier articles:</p><blockquote><i>We do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we feel more comfortable betting on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&amp;D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&amp;D PROCESS. So correspondingly, in the long run, I feel comfortable as long as a tech business can A) sustainably support new R&amp;D expenditures, and B) has demonstrated a consistent R&amp;D yield. I do not feel the need to particularly bet on any one of the new products to be a hit (or a complete failure).</i></blockquote><p>And both TSM and AAPL can sustainably fund their new R&amp;D efforts with no problem in the long term, as illustrated in the next chart. It shows their R&amp;D expenses over the past 10 years as a percentage of their total sales. A few key observations:</p><ul><li>TSM has been investing very consistently in R&amp;D efforts, on average about 8.0% of its total sales.</li><li>AAPL&#39;s R&amp;D expenses have been climbing since Tim Cook took over the company from Jobs. Jobs believed that innovation is not about money and it &#34;has nothing to do with how much R&amp;D money” a business put in. Then Cook gradually increased the R&amp;D investments to the current level of around 6.1% since 2018.</li><li>So even at AAPL’s current R&amp;D level, TSM is still outspending AAPL by about 200 basis points. And also note TSM’s consistency: the R&amp;D expenses only fluctuated in a very narrow range over the past 10 years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ba62925d409c0646d95b62223ef4b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author</span></p><p>More impressively, TSM’s yield on the R&amp;D investment is also superior to AAPL, which is already at a remarkable level by itself as shown in the next chart. The chart used Buffett’s $1 test on R&amp;D expenses. More specifically, the chart quantifies the R&amp;D yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&amp;D expenditures. Thus, the results show how many dollars of profit are generated per $1 of R&amp;D expenses. In particular, in this chart, my analysis used the operating cash flow (“OPC”) as the profit and also took a 3-year moving average on the OPC to approximate a 3-year R&amp;D cycle. And the key observations are:</p><ul><li>The R&amp;D yield is also consistent for TSM, with an average of $6.75 since 2014.</li><li>AAPL’s picture is a bit more colorful. Its R&amp;D yield has been astronomical ($10+ in 2013 and $8+ in 2014 and 2015) thanks to its almost monopoly status in key market segments in those days. Its R&amp;D yield has gradually declined to around ~$4.0 in recent years. And its long-term average was about $5.3.</li><li>To provide a broader view, the FAAMG group features an average R&amp;D yield of ~$2.5 in recent years.</li><li>Thus, both AAPL and TSM boast superb R&amp;D yields even when compared to the overachievers in the FAAMG pack, and TSM’s yield is even higher than AAPL by a large gap.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e8c1b1427c0babf39d38ec60269d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Both enjoy high ROCE too, but AAPL is in its own category</h2><p>To me, ROCE (return on capital employed) is the most fundamental profitability metric as detailed in my blog article (with differences compared to ROE and Q&amp;A on the most frequently received questions from our readers). One key reason for its fundamental importance is that the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and reinvestment rate (“RR”) in the following simple way:</p><p>Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * RR</p><p>The ROCE of TSM and AAPL are shown below for the past 10 years. As you can see, TSM has been maintaining a high ROCE with remarkable consistency here. Its average ROCE has been about 42%. And I cannot overemphasize the consistency – which is a strong indicator of its stable moat. However, AAPL certainly has the upper hand here. Its ROCE is simply a category of its own. It has been hovering around an average of 125% since 2018 after its “declines” from an astronomical (and also unsustainable level in my view) of 200%+ earlier in the decade.</p><p>In terms of RR, both companies have sustainable capital allocation flexibility thanks to their strong cash generation. All told, my analysis shows that TSM has been maintaining an RR in the range between 7.5% to 10% in recent years, and AAPL about 5% to 7.5%.</p><p>So even without the trade tensions and deglobalization process aforementioned, I would project AAPL to have a much better perpetual growth curve ahead than TSM. I projected AAPL’s LT growth rate to be up to 10% (7.5% RR * 125% ROCE ~ 10% annual growth rate). And TSM’s growth rate, on the hand, would be limited to be in the mid-single digit range (say 4% = 10% RR * 42% ROCE).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b3ddd710705df7ba8e09cb93f9b81a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Risks and final thought</h2><p>But to reiterate, I do see the developing tension between TSM and AAPL and the deglobalization process as the overarching forces here. And I only see the differences in terms of valuation, R&amp;D yields, and profitability to be secondary forces in the years to come. The deglobalization mega-trend has been unfolding since 2008. And I see a series of recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of TSM’s price raises, the CHIPS act, the ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions, and also the Russian/Ukraine war) to further exacerbate and accelerate the trend. Under such a mega-trend, I see it as inevitable that key chip clients (such as AAPL, AMD, and NVDA) diversify their manufacturing needs away from TSM.</p><p>And the bottom line is that damage will be mutual but asymmetric the way I see things. It is easier for AAPL to find replacement foundry services but a lot harder for TSM to find replacement clients at the scale of AAPL.</p><p><i>This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-22 16:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285386886","content_text":"SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent position in Taiwan Semiconductor is a notable example.The choice is even more puzzling when viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple.There are certainly positives with Taiwan Semiconductor, that is, even when compared to Apple.However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them, which produces mutual but asymmetric damage.Jamie McCarthyThe investment thesisAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I feel comfortable saying that I understand most of his investment choices. But occasionally, the grandmaster still manages to make a move that surprises me such as his recent position in TaiwanSemiconductor (NYSE:TSM). To wit, the recent 13F disclosure showed that Buffett opened a sizable position in TSM for the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) equity portfolio. As you can see from the following chart, his BRK portfolio now holds more than 60.06M shares of TSM with a total worth of over $4.11B. The TSM position is currently the 10thlargest position in the BRK portfolio.Source: Dataroma.comThe surprise comes in several ways. And the more obvious ways (like Buffett’s allergy to tech businesses) have already been discussed by several other SA authors and I won’t further add to it anymore. Here, I want to explore an angle that is less discussed so far. I want to explain why it feels more puzzling to me, that is besides the fact that Buffett added another tech name to his BRK portfolio, when the TSM position is viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). There are certainly positives with TSM, that is, even when compared to AAPL. As we will detail in the next section, it is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space and an R&D yield that is even better than AAPL.However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them and also the ongoing deglobalization mega-trend. According to a recentnews report, TSM’s scheduled price raises in 2023 were rejected by AAPL, by far its largest customer. AAPL currently outsources almost all of its processor manufacturing to factories in Taiwan. However, with the U.S. strategic initiatives to push to develop domestic semiconductor foundry capabilities, AAPL (and other U.S. chip players such Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) too) would be very likely to diversify its chip manufacturing away from TSM. And the damage will be mutual but asymmetric. It is easier for AAPL to find other foundry services to manufacture its chips, and a lot harder for TSM to find such large clients as AAPL.The full impact of such tension and diversification will take time to fully manifest. And TSM’s role as the dominating high-end chipmaker in the world won’t change in the near term. But I see these recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of the price raises and the recent passing of the CHIPS act) as the turning point. Taking a broader view, I see these events as a logical step, or even an inevitable step, in the deglobalization process – a mega force that has been unfolding for over 10 years as shown in the chart below. The chart illustrates how globalization, measured as the percentage of total exports out of global GDP, has been in decline since its peak in 2008. The percentage has declined from 61% in 2008 to the to 51.6% in 2020. And since 2020, the China-U.S. trade tension, the COVID, and the Russian/Ukraine war have further quickened its pace.In the remainder of this article, I will further analyze the details of these above considerations in more detail.Source: The World BankTSM’s valuation advantageFirst, as mentioned above, there are definitely many positives with TSM even when compared to AAPL. And valuation is an obvious place to start with. As a global leader in the foundry space, it is for sale at a fraction of the overall market and AAPL’s valuation as seen in the chart below.To cite a few examples, TSM’s FY1 PE of 12.8x is almost only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Its TTM PE of 13.08x is also about only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Considering that these stocks have different leverages and enterprise values (“EV”), let's compare their multiples with leverages adjusted too. As you can see, TSM’s discount is even more dramatic in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples. TSM’s FW EV/EBITDA ratio sits at 7.64x only, less than ½ of AAPL’s 18.18x.Yes, as you will see in the next section, TSM is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space, further bolstered by its consistent R&D investments and also superb R&D yield that even surpasses AAPL.Source: Seeking Alpha dataTSM’s more consistent and aggressive R&DAs detailed in our earlier articles:We do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we feel more comfortable betting on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D PROCESS. So correspondingly, in the long run, I feel comfortable as long as a tech business can A) sustainably support new R&D expenditures, and B) has demonstrated a consistent R&D yield. I do not feel the need to particularly bet on any one of the new products to be a hit (or a complete failure).And both TSM and AAPL can sustainably fund their new R&D efforts with no problem in the long term, as illustrated in the next chart. It shows their R&D expenses over the past 10 years as a percentage of their total sales. A few key observations:TSM has been investing very consistently in R&D efforts, on average about 8.0% of its total sales.AAPL's R&D expenses have been climbing since Tim Cook took over the company from Jobs. Jobs believed that innovation is not about money and it \"has nothing to do with how much R&D money” a business put in. Then Cook gradually increased the R&D investments to the current level of around 6.1% since 2018.So even at AAPL’s current R&D level, TSM is still outspending AAPL by about 200 basis points. And also note TSM’s consistency: the R&D expenses only fluctuated in a very narrow range over the past 10 years.Source: AuthorMore impressively, TSM’s yield on the R&D investment is also superior to AAPL, which is already at a remarkable level by itself as shown in the next chart. The chart used Buffett’s $1 test on R&D expenses. More specifically, the chart quantifies the R&D yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. Thus, the results show how many dollars of profit are generated per $1 of R&D expenses. In particular, in this chart, my analysis used the operating cash flow (“OPC”) as the profit and also took a 3-year moving average on the OPC to approximate a 3-year R&D cycle. And the key observations are:The R&D yield is also consistent for TSM, with an average of $6.75 since 2014.AAPL’s picture is a bit more colorful. Its R&D yield has been astronomical ($10+ in 2013 and $8+ in 2014 and 2015) thanks to its almost monopoly status in key market segments in those days. Its R&D yield has gradually declined to around ~$4.0 in recent years. And its long-term average was about $5.3.To provide a broader view, the FAAMG group features an average R&D yield of ~$2.5 in recent years.Thus, both AAPL and TSM boast superb R&D yields even when compared to the overachievers in the FAAMG pack, and TSM’s yield is even higher than AAPL by a large gap.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataBoth enjoy high ROCE too, but AAPL is in its own categoryTo me, ROCE (return on capital employed) is the most fundamental profitability metric as detailed in my blog article (with differences compared to ROE and Q&A on the most frequently received questions from our readers). One key reason for its fundamental importance is that the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and reinvestment rate (“RR”) in the following simple way:Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * RRThe ROCE of TSM and AAPL are shown below for the past 10 years. As you can see, TSM has been maintaining a high ROCE with remarkable consistency here. Its average ROCE has been about 42%. And I cannot overemphasize the consistency – which is a strong indicator of its stable moat. However, AAPL certainly has the upper hand here. Its ROCE is simply a category of its own. It has been hovering around an average of 125% since 2018 after its “declines” from an astronomical (and also unsustainable level in my view) of 200%+ earlier in the decade.In terms of RR, both companies have sustainable capital allocation flexibility thanks to their strong cash generation. All told, my analysis shows that TSM has been maintaining an RR in the range between 7.5% to 10% in recent years, and AAPL about 5% to 7.5%.So even without the trade tensions and deglobalization process aforementioned, I would project AAPL to have a much better perpetual growth curve ahead than TSM. I projected AAPL’s LT growth rate to be up to 10% (7.5% RR * 125% ROCE ~ 10% annual growth rate). And TSM’s growth rate, on the hand, would be limited to be in the mid-single digit range (say 4% = 10% RR * 42% ROCE).Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtBut to reiterate, I do see the developing tension between TSM and AAPL and the deglobalization process as the overarching forces here. And I only see the differences in terms of valuation, R&D yields, and profitability to be secondary forces in the years to come. The deglobalization mega-trend has been unfolding since 2008. And I see a series of recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of TSM’s price raises, the CHIPS act, the ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions, and also the Russian/Ukraine war) to further exacerbate and accelerate the trend. Under such a mega-trend, I see it as inevitable that key chip clients (such as AAPL, AMD, and NVDA) diversify their manufacturing needs away from TSM.And the bottom line is that damage will be mutual but asymmetric the way I see things. It is easier for AAPL to find replacement foundry services but a lot harder for TSM to find replacement clients at the scale of AAPL.This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984352818,"gmtCreate":1667543105034,"gmtModify":1676537935168,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Okay thanks&nbsp;","text":"Okay thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984352818","repostId":"1191661208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191661208","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667540248,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191661208?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-04 13:37","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Reminder: US Trading Schedule Change Due to Daylight Saving Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191661208","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Please be informed that the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) will end from 6 November 2022, Sunday 3:","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Please be informed that the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) will end from 6 November 2022, Sunday 3:00 am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) to 12 March 2023, Sunday 2:00 am EST (Eastern Standard Time). The time will be moved an hour backward.</p><h2>For investors in Singapore:</h2><p>Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 10:30 pm SGT[Singapore Standard Time] - 5:00 am (the next day)SGT[Singapore Standard Time].</p><h2>For investors in Australia:</h2><p>Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 1:30 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time] - 8:00 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time].</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67860c57965ec57d43055e2dc420cbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US Trading Schedule Change Due to Daylight Saving Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US Trading Schedule Change Due to Daylight Saving Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-04 13:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Please be informed that the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) will end from 6 November 2022, Sunday 3:00 am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) to 12 March 2023, Sunday 2:00 am EST (Eastern Standard Time). The time will be moved an hour backward.</p><h2>For investors in Singapore:</h2><p>Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 10:30 pm SGT[Singapore Standard Time] - 5:00 am (the next day)SGT[Singapore Standard Time].</p><h2>For investors in Australia:</h2><p>Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 1:30 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time] - 8:00 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time].</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67860c57965ec57d43055e2dc420cbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191661208","content_text":"Please be informed that the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) will end from 6 November 2022, Sunday 3:00 am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) to 12 March 2023, Sunday 2:00 am EST (Eastern Standard Time). The time will be moved an hour backward.For investors in Singapore:Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 10:30 pm SGT[Singapore Standard Time] - 5:00 am (the next day)SGT[Singapore Standard Time].For investors in Australia:Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 1:30 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time] - 8:00 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time].","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914230709,"gmtCreate":1665283362001,"gmtModify":1676537582024,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914230709","repostId":"2273397323","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273397323","pubTimestamp":1665197064,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2273397323?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-08 10:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley-Led Banks Face $500 Million Loss on Twitter Debt","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273397323","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Banks are on the hook to provide financing, lawyers sayPotential losses could be even higher as debt","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Banks are on the hook to provide financing, lawyers say</li><li>Potential losses could be even higher as debt markets sour</li></ul><p>When banks led by Morgan Stanley agreed in April to help finance Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter Inc., they were eager to aid an important client, the richest person in the world. Now neither Musk nor the banks have an obvious way to wriggle out of it.</p><p>Lenders that also include Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. committed to provide $13 billion of debt financing for the deal. Their losses would amount to $500 million or more if the debt were to be sold now, according to Bloomberg calculations. They agreed to fund the purchase whether or not they were able to offload the debt to outside investors, according to public documents and lawyers who have looked at them.</p><p>“I think that those banks would like to get out of it, I think the deal makes less sense for them now, and that the debt will be harder to syndicate to investors,” said Howard Fischer, partner at law firm Moses Singer. But Fischer, a former senior trial counsel at the Securities and Exchange Commission who isn’t involved in Twitter, said there’s no legal basis for them to back out.</p><p>Junk bond and leveraged loan yields have surged since April, meaning that banks will lose money from having agreed to provide financing at lower yields than the market will accept now. Any pain the banks bear from this deal comes as lenders have already sustained billions of dollars of writedowns and losses this year after central banks worldwide have started hiking rates to tame inflation.</p><p>Even if the banks could find buyers for Twitter debt in the market now, which is far from certain, selling bonds and loans tied to the deal probably wouldn’t be possible before the buyout closes.</p><p>Banks have a pipeline of around $50 billion of debt financings they’ve committed to provide in the coming months, according to Deutsche Bank AG estimates. While usually banks would sell bonds and loans to fund those deals, investors are less eager to buy now than they were toward the beginning of the year, and offloading this debt will be hard.</p><p>That’s forcing banks to provide the financing themselves on a number of deals, a strain on their earnings and capital requirements. For example, lenders including Bank of America and Barclays expect to have to fund $8.35 billion of debt for the leveraged buyout of Nielsen Holdings next week, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.</p><p>Representatives for Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Barclays, MUFG and Twitter declined to comment. A representative for Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><h2>Way Out?</h2><p>Banks may not be able to back out of the Twitter deal, but Musk has been trying to. Twitter said on Thursday that it’s dubious of the billionaire’s promises to close on the transaction. The company said that a banker involved in the debt financing testified earlier Thursday that Musk had yet to send them a borrowing notice, and had otherwise not communicated to them that he intended to close the deal.</p><p>The lack of a borrowing notice on its own isn’t necessarily a problem. Usually that document comes toward the end of the process of closing on a purchase, said David Wicklund, a partner at Vinson &amp; Elkins who focuses on complex acquisition and leveraged financings. It’s often submitted to banks two or three days before closing, making it one of the last items to be finished.</p><p>But leading up to the closing of a big acquisition typically involves a blizzard of paperwork that has to be negotiated between both parties. There may be 50 to 80 documents that get discussed, Wicklund said.</p><p>A Delaware judge said on Thursday that if the transaction isn’t done by October 28, she will set new dates in November for the lawsuit between Twitter and Musk. That date comes from a filing from Musk’s team that said the banks needed until then to provide the debt funding.</p><p>On Monday, Musk sent Twitter a letter saying he would go through with his acquisition “pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing.” That made it seem like there was some doubt as to whether the banks would provide their promised financing, which became a sticking point in negotiations between the company and the billionaire.</p><p>But in a court document on Thursday, Musk’s team said that counsel for the banks “has advised that each of their clients is prepared to honor its obligations.”</p><h2>Bonds, Loans</h2><p>The banking group originally planned to sell $6.5 billion of leveraged loans to investors, along with $6 billion of junk bonds split evenly between secured and unsecured notes. They are also providing $500 million of a type of loan called a revolving credit facility that they would typically plan to hold themselves.</p><p>Of the more than $500 million of losses that the banks are estimated to have on the Twitter debt, up to about $400 million stems from the riskiest portion, the unsecured bonds, which have a maximum interest rate for the company of about 11.75%, Bloomberg reported earlier this year. The losses exclude fees the banks would usually earn on the transaction.</p><p>The rest of the losses are estimated based on where the maximum interest rates would have been determined for the loan and secured bond when compared to the unsecured portion. The expected loss could ultimately be higher or lower.</p><p>The banking group is expected to give the cash to Twitter and become a lender to the soon-to-be highly indebted social media giant.</p><p>Morgan Stanley would hold onto the most at about $3.5 billion of debt, based on the debt commitment letter:</p><p>The banks will have to mark down the debt based on where it would trade in the secondary market, which would likely be at steep discounts to face value, especially for the riskiest portions. BNP Paribas, Mizuho and Societe Generale SA declined to comment. The banks can then wait until better market conditions and try to sell the debt to investors at a later date, likely at a discount to face value.</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley-Led Banks Face $500 Million Loss on Twitter Debt</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley-Led Banks Face $500 Million Loss on Twitter Debt\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-08 10:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-led-banks-face-215352792.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Banks are on the hook to provide financing, lawyers sayPotential losses could be even higher as debt markets sourWhen banks led by Morgan Stanley agreed in April to help finance Elon Musk’s purchase ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-led-banks-face-215352792.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BARC.UK":"巴克莱银行","TWTR":"Twitter","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BAC":"美国银行","BK4508":"社交媒体","MS":"摩根士丹利","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-led-banks-face-215352792.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2273397323","content_text":"Banks are on the hook to provide financing, lawyers sayPotential losses could be even higher as debt markets sourWhen banks led by Morgan Stanley agreed in April to help finance Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter Inc., they were eager to aid an important client, the richest person in the world. Now neither Musk nor the banks have an obvious way to wriggle out of it.Lenders that also include Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. committed to provide $13 billion of debt financing for the deal. Their losses would amount to $500 million or more if the debt were to be sold now, according to Bloomberg calculations. They agreed to fund the purchase whether or not they were able to offload the debt to outside investors, according to public documents and lawyers who have looked at them.“I think that those banks would like to get out of it, I think the deal makes less sense for them now, and that the debt will be harder to syndicate to investors,” said Howard Fischer, partner at law firm Moses Singer. But Fischer, a former senior trial counsel at the Securities and Exchange Commission who isn’t involved in Twitter, said there’s no legal basis for them to back out.Junk bond and leveraged loan yields have surged since April, meaning that banks will lose money from having agreed to provide financing at lower yields than the market will accept now. Any pain the banks bear from this deal comes as lenders have already sustained billions of dollars of writedowns and losses this year after central banks worldwide have started hiking rates to tame inflation.Even if the banks could find buyers for Twitter debt in the market now, which is far from certain, selling bonds and loans tied to the deal probably wouldn’t be possible before the buyout closes.Banks have a pipeline of around $50 billion of debt financings they’ve committed to provide in the coming months, according to Deutsche Bank AG estimates. While usually banks would sell bonds and loans to fund those deals, investors are less eager to buy now than they were toward the beginning of the year, and offloading this debt will be hard.That’s forcing banks to provide the financing themselves on a number of deals, a strain on their earnings and capital requirements. For example, lenders including Bank of America and Barclays expect to have to fund $8.35 billion of debt for the leveraged buyout of Nielsen Holdings next week, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.Representatives for Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Barclays, MUFG and Twitter declined to comment. A representative for Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Way Out?Banks may not be able to back out of the Twitter deal, but Musk has been trying to. Twitter said on Thursday that it’s dubious of the billionaire’s promises to close on the transaction. The company said that a banker involved in the debt financing testified earlier Thursday that Musk had yet to send them a borrowing notice, and had otherwise not communicated to them that he intended to close the deal.The lack of a borrowing notice on its own isn’t necessarily a problem. Usually that document comes toward the end of the process of closing on a purchase, said David Wicklund, a partner at Vinson & Elkins who focuses on complex acquisition and leveraged financings. It’s often submitted to banks two or three days before closing, making it one of the last items to be finished.But leading up to the closing of a big acquisition typically involves a blizzard of paperwork that has to be negotiated between both parties. There may be 50 to 80 documents that get discussed, Wicklund said.A Delaware judge said on Thursday that if the transaction isn’t done by October 28, she will set new dates in November for the lawsuit between Twitter and Musk. That date comes from a filing from Musk’s team that said the banks needed until then to provide the debt funding.On Monday, Musk sent Twitter a letter saying he would go through with his acquisition “pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing.” That made it seem like there was some doubt as to whether the banks would provide their promised financing, which became a sticking point in negotiations between the company and the billionaire.But in a court document on Thursday, Musk’s team said that counsel for the banks “has advised that each of their clients is prepared to honor its obligations.”Bonds, LoansThe banking group originally planned to sell $6.5 billion of leveraged loans to investors, along with $6 billion of junk bonds split evenly between secured and unsecured notes. They are also providing $500 million of a type of loan called a revolving credit facility that they would typically plan to hold themselves.Of the more than $500 million of losses that the banks are estimated to have on the Twitter debt, up to about $400 million stems from the riskiest portion, the unsecured bonds, which have a maximum interest rate for the company of about 11.75%, Bloomberg reported earlier this year. The losses exclude fees the banks would usually earn on the transaction.The rest of the losses are estimated based on where the maximum interest rates would have been determined for the loan and secured bond when compared to the unsecured portion. The expected loss could ultimately be higher or lower.The banking group is expected to give the cash to Twitter and become a lender to the soon-to-be highly indebted social media giant.Morgan Stanley would hold onto the most at about $3.5 billion of debt, based on the debt commitment letter:The banks will have to mark down the debt based on where it would trade in the secondary market, which would likely be at steep discounts to face value, especially for the riskiest portions. BNP Paribas, Mizuho and Societe Generale SA declined to comment. The banks can then wait until better market conditions and try to sell the debt to investors at a later date, likely at a discount to face value.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914294728,"gmtCreate":1665283148864,"gmtModify":1676537581968,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914294728","repostId":"2274280347","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274280347","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1665281908,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2274280347?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-09 10:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Stock-Market Bulls Keep Falling for Fed \"Pivot\" Feints -- and What It Will Take to Put in a Bottom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274280347","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Should you buy stocks now, or wait?Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Should you buy stocks now, or wait?</p><p>Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since stocks began their decline by roughly 25% in January of this year. The right answer likely hinges on whether or not the Federal Reserve follows through with plans to raise its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% or higher, as market-based indicators and the Fed&#39;s latest batch of projections anticipate.</p><p>Global markets are on edge about the possibility of an emerging-markets crisis resulting from higher interest rates and a U.S. dollar at a 20 year high, or a slump in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates, or the collapse of a financial institution due to the worst bond market chaos in a generation.</p><p>Fears that the Fed could cause something in the global economy or financial system to &#34;break&#34; have inspired some to question whether the Fed can successfully whip inflation by hiking interest rates by the most aggressive pace in decades without causing collateral damage.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s efforts are already whipsawing markets almost on a daily basis.</p><p>Ongoing volatility in markets makes it difficult to ascertain when buying opportunities might arrive, said Bill Sterling, the global strategist at GW&amp;K Investment Management.</p><h2>The peak in interest rates matters for stocks</h2><p>A look back at how the Fed has managed monetary policy compared with its own projections offers good reason to be skeptical of expectations surrounding when the Fed will shift back toward a policy of monetary easing.</p><p>It&#39;s important to remember that stocks have often reacted positively when the Fed has shifted back to cutting interest rates. Dating back to August 1984, the S&amp;P 500 indexhas risen on average more than 17% in the 12 months (see chart) that followed a peak in the fed-funds rate range, according toSterling at GW&amp;Kand Fed data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e8a987c0e4f62de3ba0cd8d5759ac7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The chart also shows the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose sharply in the year after the Fed&#39;s brought interest rates to their peak levels in prior monetary policy tightening cycles over roughly the past 40 years.</p><p>The same holds true for bonds, which have historically outperformed after the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking-cycle reached its apex. Sterling said yields historically retreated by, on average, one-fifth of their value, in the 12 months after Fed benchmark rates peaked.</p><p>Still a factor that differentiates modern times from the persistent inflation of the 1980s is the elevated level of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. As Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said, the weakening U.S. economy, plus fears of a crisis breaking out somewhere in global markets, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy.</p><p>But as investors watch markets and economic data, Sterling said that &#34;backward-looking&#34; measures like the U.S. consumer-price index and the personal-consumption expenditures index, aren&#39;t nearly as helpful as &#34;forward looking&#34; gauges, like the breakeven spreads generated by Treasury inflation-protected securities, or survey data like the University of Michigan inflation expectations indicator.</p><p>&#34;The market is caught between these forward looking and encouraging signs that inflation could come off in the next year as seen in the [Treasury inflation-protected securities] yields,&#34; Sterling said.</p><p>Stocks kicked off the past week and fourth quarter with a two-day rally after major indexes ended Sept. 30 at their lowest since 2020. Those gains faded over the course of the week as Fed officials and economic data undercut investor expectations around a potential Fed &#34;pivot&#34; away from its program of aggressive interest-rate increases. Stocks ended the week higher, but with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  up just 2% from its Sept. 30 low, while the S&amp;P 500  trimmed its weekly rise to 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  advanced just 0.7%.</p><p>Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have said that policy makers have no intention of abandoning their interest-rate hiking plan, in what were only the latest round of hawkish comments made by senior Federal Reserve officials.</p><p>However, some on Wall Street are paying less attention to what senior Fed officials are saying and more attention to market-based indicators like Treasury spreads, relative moves in sovereign bond yields, and credit-default spreads, including those of Credit Suisse Inc. (CSGN.EB).</p><p>Costa at Crescat Capital said he sees a growing &#34;disconnect&#34; between the state of markets and the Fed&#39;s aggressive rhetoric, with the odds of a crash growing by the day.</p><p>Because of this, he&#39;s waiting for &#34;the other shoe to drop,&#34; which could be an important turning point for markets.</p><p>He anticipates a blowup will finally force the Fed and other global central banks to back off their policy-tightening agenda, like the Bank of England briefly did last month when it decided to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the gilts market -- although the BoE is preparing to continue raising interest rates to battle inflation</p><p>But before that happens, he expects trading in fixed-income to become as disorderly as it was during the spring of 2020, when the Fed was forced to intervene to avert a bond market collapse at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>&#34;Just look at the differential between Treasury yields compared with junk-bond yields. We have yet to see that spike driven by default risk, which is a sign of a totally dysfunctional market,&#34; Costa said.</p><p>See: Cracks in financial markets fuel debate on whether the next crisis is inevitable</p><p>A simple look in the rearview mirror shows that the Fed&#39;s plans for interest-rate hikes rarely pan out like the central bank expects. Take the last year for example.</p><p>The median projection for the level of the fed-funds rate in September 2021 was just 30 basis points one year ago, according to the Fed&#39;s survey of projections. Turns out, those projections were off by nearly three whole percentage points.</p><p>&#34;Don&#39;t take the Federal Reserve at its word when trying to anticipate the direction of Fed policy over the next year,&#34; Sterling said.</p><h2>Looking ahead to next week</h2><p>Looking ahead to next week, investors will receive some more insight into the state of the U.S. economy, and, by extension, the Fed&#39;s thinking.</p><p>U.S. inflation data will be front and center for markets, with the September consumer-price index due on Thursday. On Friday investors will receive an update from the University of Michigan&#39;s on consumer sentiment survey and its inflation expectations survey.</p><p>The inflation data will be scrutinized especially closely as investors grapple with signs that the U.S. labor market may indeed be starting to weaken, according to Krishna Guha and Peter Williams, two U.S. economists at Evercore ISI.</p><p>The September jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 263,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.55 to 3.7%, but job growth slowed from 537,000 in July, and 315, 000 in August.</p><p>But will inflation show signs of peaking or slowing its rise? Many fear that the crude oil production-quota cuts imposed by OPEC+ earlier this week could push prices higher later in the year.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures market, which allows investors to place bets on the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, anticipates another 75 basis-point rate hike on Nov. 3.</p><p>Beyond that, traders expect the fed-funds rate will top out in February or March at 4.75%, according to the Fed&#39;s FedWatch tool.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Stock-Market Bulls Keep Falling for Fed \"Pivot\" Feints -- and What It Will Take to Put in a Bottom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Stock-Market Bulls Keep Falling for Fed \"Pivot\" Feints -- and What It Will Take to Put in a Bottom\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-09 10:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Should you buy stocks now, or wait?</p><p>Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since stocks began their decline by roughly 25% in January of this year. The right answer likely hinges on whether or not the Federal Reserve follows through with plans to raise its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% or higher, as market-based indicators and the Fed&#39;s latest batch of projections anticipate.</p><p>Global markets are on edge about the possibility of an emerging-markets crisis resulting from higher interest rates and a U.S. dollar at a 20 year high, or a slump in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates, or the collapse of a financial institution due to the worst bond market chaos in a generation.</p><p>Fears that the Fed could cause something in the global economy or financial system to &#34;break&#34; have inspired some to question whether the Fed can successfully whip inflation by hiking interest rates by the most aggressive pace in decades without causing collateral damage.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s efforts are already whipsawing markets almost on a daily basis.</p><p>Ongoing volatility in markets makes it difficult to ascertain when buying opportunities might arrive, said Bill Sterling, the global strategist at GW&amp;K Investment Management.</p><h2>The peak in interest rates matters for stocks</h2><p>A look back at how the Fed has managed monetary policy compared with its own projections offers good reason to be skeptical of expectations surrounding when the Fed will shift back toward a policy of monetary easing.</p><p>It&#39;s important to remember that stocks have often reacted positively when the Fed has shifted back to cutting interest rates. Dating back to August 1984, the S&amp;P 500 indexhas risen on average more than 17% in the 12 months (see chart) that followed a peak in the fed-funds rate range, according toSterling at GW&amp;Kand Fed data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e8a987c0e4f62de3ba0cd8d5759ac7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The chart also shows the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose sharply in the year after the Fed&#39;s brought interest rates to their peak levels in prior monetary policy tightening cycles over roughly the past 40 years.</p><p>The same holds true for bonds, which have historically outperformed after the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking-cycle reached its apex. Sterling said yields historically retreated by, on average, one-fifth of their value, in the 12 months after Fed benchmark rates peaked.</p><p>Still a factor that differentiates modern times from the persistent inflation of the 1980s is the elevated level of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. As Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said, the weakening U.S. economy, plus fears of a crisis breaking out somewhere in global markets, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy.</p><p>But as investors watch markets and economic data, Sterling said that &#34;backward-looking&#34; measures like the U.S. consumer-price index and the personal-consumption expenditures index, aren&#39;t nearly as helpful as &#34;forward looking&#34; gauges, like the breakeven spreads generated by Treasury inflation-protected securities, or survey data like the University of Michigan inflation expectations indicator.</p><p>&#34;The market is caught between these forward looking and encouraging signs that inflation could come off in the next year as seen in the [Treasury inflation-protected securities] yields,&#34; Sterling said.</p><p>Stocks kicked off the past week and fourth quarter with a two-day rally after major indexes ended Sept. 30 at their lowest since 2020. Those gains faded over the course of the week as Fed officials and economic data undercut investor expectations around a potential Fed &#34;pivot&#34; away from its program of aggressive interest-rate increases. Stocks ended the week higher, but with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  up just 2% from its Sept. 30 low, while the S&amp;P 500  trimmed its weekly rise to 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  advanced just 0.7%.</p><p>Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have said that policy makers have no intention of abandoning their interest-rate hiking plan, in what were only the latest round of hawkish comments made by senior Federal Reserve officials.</p><p>However, some on Wall Street are paying less attention to what senior Fed officials are saying and more attention to market-based indicators like Treasury spreads, relative moves in sovereign bond yields, and credit-default spreads, including those of Credit Suisse Inc. (CSGN.EB).</p><p>Costa at Crescat Capital said he sees a growing &#34;disconnect&#34; between the state of markets and the Fed&#39;s aggressive rhetoric, with the odds of a crash growing by the day.</p><p>Because of this, he&#39;s waiting for &#34;the other shoe to drop,&#34; which could be an important turning point for markets.</p><p>He anticipates a blowup will finally force the Fed and other global central banks to back off their policy-tightening agenda, like the Bank of England briefly did last month when it decided to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the gilts market -- although the BoE is preparing to continue raising interest rates to battle inflation</p><p>But before that happens, he expects trading in fixed-income to become as disorderly as it was during the spring of 2020, when the Fed was forced to intervene to avert a bond market collapse at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>&#34;Just look at the differential between Treasury yields compared with junk-bond yields. We have yet to see that spike driven by default risk, which is a sign of a totally dysfunctional market,&#34; Costa said.</p><p>See: Cracks in financial markets fuel debate on whether the next crisis is inevitable</p><p>A simple look in the rearview mirror shows that the Fed&#39;s plans for interest-rate hikes rarely pan out like the central bank expects. Take the last year for example.</p><p>The median projection for the level of the fed-funds rate in September 2021 was just 30 basis points one year ago, according to the Fed&#39;s survey of projections. Turns out, those projections were off by nearly three whole percentage points.</p><p>&#34;Don&#39;t take the Federal Reserve at its word when trying to anticipate the direction of Fed policy over the next year,&#34; Sterling said.</p><h2>Looking ahead to next week</h2><p>Looking ahead to next week, investors will receive some more insight into the state of the U.S. economy, and, by extension, the Fed&#39;s thinking.</p><p>U.S. inflation data will be front and center for markets, with the September consumer-price index due on Thursday. On Friday investors will receive an update from the University of Michigan&#39;s on consumer sentiment survey and its inflation expectations survey.</p><p>The inflation data will be scrutinized especially closely as investors grapple with signs that the U.S. labor market may indeed be starting to weaken, according to Krishna Guha and Peter Williams, two U.S. economists at Evercore ISI.</p><p>The September jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 263,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.55 to 3.7%, but job growth slowed from 537,000 in July, and 315, 000 in August.</p><p>But will inflation show signs of peaking or slowing its rise? Many fear that the crude oil production-quota cuts imposed by OPEC+ earlier this week could push prices higher later in the year.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures market, which allows investors to place bets on the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, anticipates another 75 basis-point rate hike on Nov. 3.</p><p>Beyond that, traders expect the fed-funds rate will top out in February or March at 4.75%, according to the Fed&#39;s FedWatch tool.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274280347","content_text":"Should you buy stocks now, or wait?Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since stocks began their decline by roughly 25% in January of this year. The right answer likely hinges on whether or not the Federal Reserve follows through with plans to raise its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% or higher, as market-based indicators and the Fed's latest batch of projections anticipate.Global markets are on edge about the possibility of an emerging-markets crisis resulting from higher interest rates and a U.S. dollar at a 20 year high, or a slump in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates, or the collapse of a financial institution due to the worst bond market chaos in a generation.Fears that the Fed could cause something in the global economy or financial system to \"break\" have inspired some to question whether the Fed can successfully whip inflation by hiking interest rates by the most aggressive pace in decades without causing collateral damage.The Fed's efforts are already whipsawing markets almost on a daily basis.Ongoing volatility in markets makes it difficult to ascertain when buying opportunities might arrive, said Bill Sterling, the global strategist at GW&K Investment Management.The peak in interest rates matters for stocksA look back at how the Fed has managed monetary policy compared with its own projections offers good reason to be skeptical of expectations surrounding when the Fed will shift back toward a policy of monetary easing.It's important to remember that stocks have often reacted positively when the Fed has shifted back to cutting interest rates. Dating back to August 1984, the S&P 500 indexhas risen on average more than 17% in the 12 months (see chart) that followed a peak in the fed-funds rate range, according toSterling at GW&Kand Fed data.The chart also shows the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose sharply in the year after the Fed's brought interest rates to their peak levels in prior monetary policy tightening cycles over roughly the past 40 years.The same holds true for bonds, which have historically outperformed after the Fed's interest rate hiking-cycle reached its apex. Sterling said yields historically retreated by, on average, one-fifth of their value, in the 12 months after Fed benchmark rates peaked.Still a factor that differentiates modern times from the persistent inflation of the 1980s is the elevated level of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. As Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said, the weakening U.S. economy, plus fears of a crisis breaking out somewhere in global markets, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy.But as investors watch markets and economic data, Sterling said that \"backward-looking\" measures like the U.S. consumer-price index and the personal-consumption expenditures index, aren't nearly as helpful as \"forward looking\" gauges, like the breakeven spreads generated by Treasury inflation-protected securities, or survey data like the University of Michigan inflation expectations indicator.\"The market is caught between these forward looking and encouraging signs that inflation could come off in the next year as seen in the [Treasury inflation-protected securities] yields,\" Sterling said.Stocks kicked off the past week and fourth quarter with a two-day rally after major indexes ended Sept. 30 at their lowest since 2020. Those gains faded over the course of the week as Fed officials and economic data undercut investor expectations around a potential Fed \"pivot\" away from its program of aggressive interest-rate increases. Stocks ended the week higher, but with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  up just 2% from its Sept. 30 low, while the S&P 500  trimmed its weekly rise to 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  advanced just 0.7%.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have said that policy makers have no intention of abandoning their interest-rate hiking plan, in what were only the latest round of hawkish comments made by senior Federal Reserve officials.However, some on Wall Street are paying less attention to what senior Fed officials are saying and more attention to market-based indicators like Treasury spreads, relative moves in sovereign bond yields, and credit-default spreads, including those of Credit Suisse Inc. (CSGN.EB).Costa at Crescat Capital said he sees a growing \"disconnect\" between the state of markets and the Fed's aggressive rhetoric, with the odds of a crash growing by the day.Because of this, he's waiting for \"the other shoe to drop,\" which could be an important turning point for markets.He anticipates a blowup will finally force the Fed and other global central banks to back off their policy-tightening agenda, like the Bank of England briefly did last month when it decided to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the gilts market -- although the BoE is preparing to continue raising interest rates to battle inflationBut before that happens, he expects trading in fixed-income to become as disorderly as it was during the spring of 2020, when the Fed was forced to intervene to avert a bond market collapse at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.\"Just look at the differential between Treasury yields compared with junk-bond yields. We have yet to see that spike driven by default risk, which is a sign of a totally dysfunctional market,\" Costa said.See: Cracks in financial markets fuel debate on whether the next crisis is inevitableA simple look in the rearview mirror shows that the Fed's plans for interest-rate hikes rarely pan out like the central bank expects. Take the last year for example.The median projection for the level of the fed-funds rate in September 2021 was just 30 basis points one year ago, according to the Fed's survey of projections. Turns out, those projections were off by nearly three whole percentage points.\"Don't take the Federal Reserve at its word when trying to anticipate the direction of Fed policy over the next year,\" Sterling said.Looking ahead to next weekLooking ahead to next week, investors will receive some more insight into the state of the U.S. economy, and, by extension, the Fed's thinking.U.S. inflation data will be front and center for markets, with the September consumer-price index due on Thursday. On Friday investors will receive an update from the University of Michigan's on consumer sentiment survey and its inflation expectations survey.The inflation data will be scrutinized especially closely as investors grapple with signs that the U.S. labor market may indeed be starting to weaken, according to Krishna Guha and Peter Williams, two U.S. economists at Evercore ISI.The September jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 263,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.55 to 3.7%, but job growth slowed from 537,000 in July, and 315, 000 in August.But will inflation show signs of peaking or slowing its rise? Many fear that the crude oil production-quota cuts imposed by OPEC+ earlier this week could push prices higher later in the year.Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures market, which allows investors to place bets on the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, anticipates another 75 basis-point rate hike on Nov. 3.Beyond that, traders expect the fed-funds rate will top out in February or March at 4.75%, according to the Fed's FedWatch tool.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914295163,"gmtCreate":1665282922853,"gmtModify":1676537581921,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interest&nbsp;","listText":"Interest&nbsp;","text":"Interest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914295163","repostId":"1197842233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197842233","pubTimestamp":1665278678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197842233?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-09 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk: \"Aren’t You Entertained?\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197842233","media":"Financial Times","summary":"Musk roars with laughter. “I play the fool on Twitter and often shoot myself in the foot and cause myself all sorts of trouble","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b46ff3c33be5ce8a2e8c863b83fb923\" tg-width=\"1160\" tg-height=\"870\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dinner with Elon Musk begins with a drive in a Tesla. I am seated in the back, next to X, the billionaire’s two-and-a-half-year-old son. It’s around 7pm in Austin, and X is, as one would expect, cranky.</p><p>We had set off to Fonda San Miguel, Musk’s favourite Mexican restaurant, after a visit with an FT colleague to the Tesla Gigafactory on the banks of the Colorado river.</p><p>In this massive site Musk is producing the Y electric SUVs, the latest model in the Tesla collection that has catapulted him to the top of the world’s rich list (net worth: $232bn). Musk, with X perched on his shoulders, had proudly shown off the factory floor as he periodically raged against sluggish investment in lithium refining, which is desperately needed to ease battery shortages around the world.</p><p>Musk’s security chief, the designated driver, comes to the rescue with a milk bottle that soothes X to sleep by the time we reach the restaurant.</p><p>For the next couple of hours, I am better acquainted with the curious character of Elon Musk, the engineer and the visionary, the billionaire and the disrupter, the agitator and the troublemaker.</p><p>Defying armies of sceptics, including myself (full disclosure: until my family rebelled against me and bought a Tesla Model 3 and I started driving it, I was convinced the company would go bankrupt), Musk has built Tesla into a more than $700bn market cap business and forced the car industry to speed up the shift to electric vehicles. Not prone to modesty, Musk estimates he may have accelerated the “advent of sustainable energy” by “10, maybe even 20 years”.</p><p>In just over a decade, he has also transformed the commercial space industry and the economics of space, racing ahead of rivals in building a reusable rocket that can carry passengers. Nasa has picked his Starship to land astronauts on the moon over the next few years. It is now worth around $125bn. One day, or so Musk is convinced, it will be used to colonise Mars.</p><p>Musk is a maverick too, a serial tweeter to his more than 100mn followers who flouts convention, revels in outrageous outbursts, fights with regulators and staff, and taunts competitors. He has regular run-ins with the Securities and Exchange Commission: he was fined and forced to give up his chairmanship of Tesla over 2018 tweets in which he claimed to have secured funding to take Tesla private, statements that a US judge later described as having been made “recklessly”.</p><p>A recent lawsuit accuses Musk of running a pyramid scheme to prop up dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that is, literally, based on a joke — an internet meme of a Japanese dog. Dogecoin has predictably crashed but Musk’s enthusiasm has not: he twins his black jeans with a black T-shirt featuring an image of the dog.</p><p>Why does a serious guy with serious ideas indulge in silly Twitter games that could also cost his followers dearly? “Aren’t you entertained?” Musk roars with laughter. “I play the fool on Twitter and often shoot myself in the foot and cause myself all sorts of trouble . . . I don’t know, I find it vaguely therapeutic to express myself on Twitter. It’s a way to get messages out to the public.”</p><p>It is fair to say that Musk is obsessed with Twitter, so much so that he’s been embroiled in an epic on/off buyout of the platform that has captivated Wall Street and the tech industry for months. Twitter sued Musk (and he sued back) after he backed out of a $44bn acquisition deal he made in April, accusing the social media company of under-reporting the number of bots on the platform. This week, and just before his scheduled deposition, Musk changed his mind. He now says he wants to buy Twitter again.</p><p>I had asked over dinner whether his original offer had been a bad joke. “Twitter is certainly an invitation to increase your pain level,” he says. “I guess I must be a masochist . . . ” But he makes no secret that his interest in the company has never been primarily financial: “I’m not doing Twitter for the money. It’s not like I’m trying to buy some yacht and I can’t afford it. I don’t own any boats. But I think it’s important that people have a maximally trusted and inclusive means of exchanging ideas and that it should be as trusted and transparent as possible.” The alternative, he says, is a splintering of debate into different social-media bubbles, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s Truth Social network. “It [Truth Social] is essentially a rightwing echo chamber. It might as well be called Trumpet.”</p><p>Musk doesn’t eat lunch, possibly because an unflattering picture in a swimsuit taken on a yacht in Mykonos went viral over the summer. Since then, he has been on a diet.</p><p>At Fonda San Miguel, a teeming Mexican restaurant that promises a regional culinary experience, he is a familiar dinner customer. He orders a frozen margarita (he calls it a slushy with alcohol) and I order a beer. Musk looks around. “There’s a good buzz in this restaurant,” he says approvingly, and suggests to the waiter that they serve us some of their specialities. Musk is telling me that companies are like children when the first plates land on the table: the lamb chops in a pepper sauce, and shrimp with cheese and jalapeños. The food is “epic”, Musk gasps.</p><blockquote>It’s important that people die. How long would you have liked Stalin to live?</blockquote><p>Musk is capricious, but he sees himself as a problem solver, and the problem is everything from the potential end of life on Earth to climate change and even traffic (his Boring company is building tunnels). Recently, he has dreamt up his own (rather unhelpful) peace plan for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Born and raised in South Africa in a well-to-do family, he landed in California after studying economics and physics in Canada and Pennsylvania. One of his first big ideas was well ahead of its time: he wanted to revolutionise banking. He merged an online payments business he co-founded with another company in what became PayPal. When PayPal was sold to eBay, he used the money to start SpaceX and invest in Tesla.</p><p>Ageing strikes me as the only threat to humans that he is not attempting to resolve, though another company he founded, Neuralink, is designing chips that will be implanted in the brain to restore sensory and motor function. Musk is very exercised about population decline, and claims to be doing his part to populate Earth by having 10 children (from various partners), including, it was recently reported, twins with an executive at Neuralink.</p><p>He scoffs when I inquire if there are other children he has fathered — “I’m pretty sure there are no other babies looming” — and he dismisses the wild rumours that he has bought a fertility clinic to support his production of babies. Some friends, he reveals, have indeed suggested he should have 500 kids, but that would be a “bit weird”. Referring to himself, aged 51, as an “autumn chicken”, he says he may have more children, but only to the extent that he can be a good father to them. Nonetheless, he predicts that “the current trend for most countries is that civilisation will not die with a bang, it will die with a whimper in adult diapers”. But he says ageing should not be solved. “It’s important that people die. How long would you have liked Stalin to live?” That is a good point.</p><p>Musk’s bigger worry is the preservation of life beyond Earth. His solution is to populate Mars. “Something will happen to Earth eventually, it’s just a question of time. Eventually the sun will expand and destroy all life on Earth, so we do need to move at some point, or at least be a multi-planet species,” he says. “You have to ask the question: do we want to be a space-flying civilisation and a multi-planet species or not?” I’m not sure what I think but Musk is emphatic. “It’s a question of what percentage of resources should we devote to such an endeavour? I think if you say 1 per cent of resources, that’s probably a reasonable amount.“</p><p>Would Musk himself join the pioneering colony on Mars? “Especially if I’m getting old, I’ll do it. Why not?” he says. But how useful would he be to Mars if he’s too old? “I think there’s some non-trivial chance of dying, so I’d prefer to take that chance when I’m a bit older, and see my kids grow up. Rather than right now, where little X is only two-and-a-half. I think he’d miss me.”</p><p>The table is too small for the large plates we are sharing as a second course: a slow-cooked lamb that melts in the mouth, chillies in a walnut-based sauce and shrimp in creamy chipotle sauce. Musk is right: it is the best Mexican food I’ve ever had.</p><p>We turn to his views on government and politics and the Twitter Musk appears, the more emotional, unrestrained persona that comes across in his frenetic posts. He is lauding billionaires as the most efficient stewards of capital, best placed to decide on the allocation of social benefits. “If the alternative steward of capital is the government, that is actually not going to be to the benefit of the people,” says Musk.</p><p>He is railing against Joe Biden for being in thrall to the unions but also daring to snub him. “He [Biden] had an electric vehicle summit at the White House and deliberately didn’t invite Tesla last year. Then to follow it up, to add insult to injury, at a big event he said that GM was leading the electric car revolution, in the same quarter that GM shipped 26 electric cars and we shipped 300,000. Does that seem fair to you?“</p><p>Until recently Musk voted Democrat, although he is now more on the Republican side, or perhaps floating somewhere in between. He says he is considering setting up “the Super Moderate Super Pac” to support candidates with moderate views. He makes a point of telling me that he doesn’t hate Trump, even if he has clashed with him, and insists Biden is simply too old to run for a second term in office. “You don’t want to be too far from the average age of the population because it’s going to be very difficult to stay in touch . . . Maybe one generation away from the average age is OK, but two generations? At the point where you’ve got great-grandchildren, I don’t know, how in touch with the people are you? Is it even possible to be?”</p><blockquote>I’m subject to literally a million laws and regulations and I obey almost 99.99 per cent of them</blockquote><p>Musk has a dystopian view of the left’s influence on America, which helps explain his wild pursuit of Twitter to liberate free speech. He blames the fact that his teenage daughter no longer wants to be associated with him on the supposed takeover of elite schools and universities by neo-Marxists. “It’s full-on communism . . . and a general sentiment that if you’re rich, you’re evil,” says Musk. “It [the relationship] may change, but I have very good relationships with all the others [children]. Can’t win them all.“</p><p>He also has a dim view of regulators, whom he sees as bureaucrats justifying their jobs by going after high-profile targets like him. He seems to be in a constant feud with one regulator or another, whether it’s over his own pronouncements or over the treatment of staff. Musk is unabashed about driving his employees hard. He was bullied as a child (and has also spoken of emotional abuse by his father) but is now sometimes accused of bullying others. He shoots back: if anyone is unhappy working for him, they should work elsewhere because “they’re not chained to the company, it’s voluntary”.</p><p>Does he ever think he’s above the law? That’s utter nonsense, he tells me: “I’m subject to literally a million laws and regulations and I obey almost 99.99 per cent of them. It’s only when I think the law is contrary to the interest of the people that I have an issue.” I wonder if he means the interest of Elon Musk.</p><p>There are some topics that amuse Musk, eliciting prolonged laughter, and other questions that are met with deliberate silence before he speaks. The longest silence follows my question about China and the risk to Tesla’s Shanghai factory, which produces between 30 per cent and 50 per cent of Tesla’s total production. Musk has been an admirer of as well as an investor in China. But he is not immune to the gathering US-China tensions or the risk of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Musk says Beijing has made clear its disapproval of his recent rollout of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite communications system, in Ukraine to help the military circumvent Russia’s cut-off of the internet. He says Beijing sought assurances that he would not sell Starlink in China. Musk reckons that conflict over Taiwan is inevitable but he is quick to point out that he won’t be alone in suffering the consequences. Tesla will be caught up in any conflict, he says, though, curiously, he seems to assume that the Shanghai factory will still be able to supply to customers in China, but not anywhere else. “Apple would be in very deep trouble, that’s for sure . . . ” he adds, not to mention the global economy, which he estimates, with precision, will take a 30 per cent hit.</p><p>It may be Musk’s realisation that business decisions can no longer be made without regard to security and geopolitics — or perhaps it’s simply an arrogant belief that he has all the answers — that now leads him to offer his own solutions to the world’s most complex geopolitical problems. “My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.” I doubt his proposal will be taken up.</p><p>On Ukraine too, he has advocated a compromise with Russia that has earned him ridicule in Kyiv, where Starlink had made him a hero until now. He launched his peace plan in a poll on Twitter and suggested that Crimea, which Russia invaded in 2014 and later annexed, should simply be given away to Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, shot back with his own Twitter poll: which Elon Musk do you like more, he asked, the one who supports Ukraine or the one who supports Russia?</p><p>We are over an hour into dinner and Musk is in a hurry, having scheduled a call with his SpaceX team. We skip dessert and I ask for the bill, only to find out it’s already been settled by Musk’s security chief. Musk ignores my protestations that he is flouting Lunch with the FT convention: “You’re indebted to me for life,” he jokes. We head back to the car that is taking him to a private airport to board his jet and he suggests we continue our conversation on the way.</p><p>I find X exactly where I left him, in his car seat, but he’s more cheerful after his nap. He is cooing as he watches videos of rockets on his iPad while his dad discusses rockets with his team. Suddenly, I notice that the car is driving itself, as if to dispel the doubts I had expressed about Tesla’s self-driving prospects. “It can get to the airport without intervention,” says Musk. Alarmed, I put my seatbelt on. Musk could be a magician, but he could also be wrong.</p><p><b>Menu</b></p><p>Fonda San Miguel</p><p>2330 W N Loop Blvd, Austin, Texas 78756</p><p>House frozen margarita $10</p><p>Modelo Especial beer $6</p><p>House rocks margarita $10</p><p>Spicy sauce $0.50</p><p>Angels on horseback (shrimp with cheese) $18.95</p><p>Cordero lamb chops $24.95</p><p>Mixiote slow-cooked lamb $38.95</p><p>Chile en nogada (chillies in a walnut sauce) $38.95</p><p>Camarones crema chipotle (shrimp in a spicy chipotle sauce) $34.95</p><p>Total inc tax $198.37</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1580170736413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk: \"Aren’t You Entertained?\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk: \"Aren’t You Entertained?\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-09 09:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.ft.com/content/5ef14997-982e-4f03-8548-b5d67202623a><strong>Financial Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dinner with Elon Musk begins with a drive in a Tesla. I am seated in the back, next to X, the billionaire’s two-and-a-half-year-old son. It’s around 7pm in Austin, and X is, as one would expect, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/5ef14997-982e-4f03-8548-b5d67202623a\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://www.ft.com/content/5ef14997-982e-4f03-8548-b5d67202623a","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197842233","content_text":"Dinner with Elon Musk begins with a drive in a Tesla. I am seated in the back, next to X, the billionaire’s two-and-a-half-year-old son. It’s around 7pm in Austin, and X is, as one would expect, cranky.We had set off to Fonda San Miguel, Musk’s favourite Mexican restaurant, after a visit with an FT colleague to the Tesla Gigafactory on the banks of the Colorado river.In this massive site Musk is producing the Y electric SUVs, the latest model in the Tesla collection that has catapulted him to the top of the world’s rich list (net worth: $232bn). Musk, with X perched on his shoulders, had proudly shown off the factory floor as he periodically raged against sluggish investment in lithium refining, which is desperately needed to ease battery shortages around the world.Musk’s security chief, the designated driver, comes to the rescue with a milk bottle that soothes X to sleep by the time we reach the restaurant.For the next couple of hours, I am better acquainted with the curious character of Elon Musk, the engineer and the visionary, the billionaire and the disrupter, the agitator and the troublemaker.Defying armies of sceptics, including myself (full disclosure: until my family rebelled against me and bought a Tesla Model 3 and I started driving it, I was convinced the company would go bankrupt), Musk has built Tesla into a more than $700bn market cap business and forced the car industry to speed up the shift to electric vehicles. Not prone to modesty, Musk estimates he may have accelerated the “advent of sustainable energy” by “10, maybe even 20 years”.In just over a decade, he has also transformed the commercial space industry and the economics of space, racing ahead of rivals in building a reusable rocket that can carry passengers. Nasa has picked his Starship to land astronauts on the moon over the next few years. It is now worth around $125bn. One day, or so Musk is convinced, it will be used to colonise Mars.Musk is a maverick too, a serial tweeter to his more than 100mn followers who flouts convention, revels in outrageous outbursts, fights with regulators and staff, and taunts competitors. He has regular run-ins with the Securities and Exchange Commission: he was fined and forced to give up his chairmanship of Tesla over 2018 tweets in which he claimed to have secured funding to take Tesla private, statements that a US judge later described as having been made “recklessly”.A recent lawsuit accuses Musk of running a pyramid scheme to prop up dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that is, literally, based on a joke — an internet meme of a Japanese dog. Dogecoin has predictably crashed but Musk’s enthusiasm has not: he twins his black jeans with a black T-shirt featuring an image of the dog.Why does a serious guy with serious ideas indulge in silly Twitter games that could also cost his followers dearly? “Aren’t you entertained?” Musk roars with laughter. “I play the fool on Twitter and often shoot myself in the foot and cause myself all sorts of trouble . . . I don’t know, I find it vaguely therapeutic to express myself on Twitter. It’s a way to get messages out to the public.”It is fair to say that Musk is obsessed with Twitter, so much so that he’s been embroiled in an epic on/off buyout of the platform that has captivated Wall Street and the tech industry for months. Twitter sued Musk (and he sued back) after he backed out of a $44bn acquisition deal he made in April, accusing the social media company of under-reporting the number of bots on the platform. This week, and just before his scheduled deposition, Musk changed his mind. He now says he wants to buy Twitter again.I had asked over dinner whether his original offer had been a bad joke. “Twitter is certainly an invitation to increase your pain level,” he says. “I guess I must be a masochist . . . ” But he makes no secret that his interest in the company has never been primarily financial: “I’m not doing Twitter for the money. It’s not like I’m trying to buy some yacht and I can’t afford it. I don’t own any boats. But I think it’s important that people have a maximally trusted and inclusive means of exchanging ideas and that it should be as trusted and transparent as possible.” The alternative, he says, is a splintering of debate into different social-media bubbles, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s Truth Social network. “It [Truth Social] is essentially a rightwing echo chamber. It might as well be called Trumpet.”Musk doesn’t eat lunch, possibly because an unflattering picture in a swimsuit taken on a yacht in Mykonos went viral over the summer. Since then, he has been on a diet.At Fonda San Miguel, a teeming Mexican restaurant that promises a regional culinary experience, he is a familiar dinner customer. He orders a frozen margarita (he calls it a slushy with alcohol) and I order a beer. Musk looks around. “There’s a good buzz in this restaurant,” he says approvingly, and suggests to the waiter that they serve us some of their specialities. Musk is telling me that companies are like children when the first plates land on the table: the lamb chops in a pepper sauce, and shrimp with cheese and jalapeños. The food is “epic”, Musk gasps.It’s important that people die. How long would you have liked Stalin to live?Musk is capricious, but he sees himself as a problem solver, and the problem is everything from the potential end of life on Earth to climate change and even traffic (his Boring company is building tunnels). Recently, he has dreamt up his own (rather unhelpful) peace plan for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Born and raised in South Africa in a well-to-do family, he landed in California after studying economics and physics in Canada and Pennsylvania. One of his first big ideas was well ahead of its time: he wanted to revolutionise banking. He merged an online payments business he co-founded with another company in what became PayPal. When PayPal was sold to eBay, he used the money to start SpaceX and invest in Tesla.Ageing strikes me as the only threat to humans that he is not attempting to resolve, though another company he founded, Neuralink, is designing chips that will be implanted in the brain to restore sensory and motor function. Musk is very exercised about population decline, and claims to be doing his part to populate Earth by having 10 children (from various partners), including, it was recently reported, twins with an executive at Neuralink.He scoffs when I inquire if there are other children he has fathered — “I’m pretty sure there are no other babies looming” — and he dismisses the wild rumours that he has bought a fertility clinic to support his production of babies. Some friends, he reveals, have indeed suggested he should have 500 kids, but that would be a “bit weird”. Referring to himself, aged 51, as an “autumn chicken”, he says he may have more children, but only to the extent that he can be a good father to them. Nonetheless, he predicts that “the current trend for most countries is that civilisation will not die with a bang, it will die with a whimper in adult diapers”. But he says ageing should not be solved. “It’s important that people die. How long would you have liked Stalin to live?” That is a good point.Musk’s bigger worry is the preservation of life beyond Earth. His solution is to populate Mars. “Something will happen to Earth eventually, it’s just a question of time. Eventually the sun will expand and destroy all life on Earth, so we do need to move at some point, or at least be a multi-planet species,” he says. “You have to ask the question: do we want to be a space-flying civilisation and a multi-planet species or not?” I’m not sure what I think but Musk is emphatic. “It’s a question of what percentage of resources should we devote to such an endeavour? I think if you say 1 per cent of resources, that’s probably a reasonable amount.“Would Musk himself join the pioneering colony on Mars? “Especially if I’m getting old, I’ll do it. Why not?” he says. But how useful would he be to Mars if he’s too old? “I think there’s some non-trivial chance of dying, so I’d prefer to take that chance when I’m a bit older, and see my kids grow up. Rather than right now, where little X is only two-and-a-half. I think he’d miss me.”The table is too small for the large plates we are sharing as a second course: a slow-cooked lamb that melts in the mouth, chillies in a walnut-based sauce and shrimp in creamy chipotle sauce. Musk is right: it is the best Mexican food I’ve ever had.We turn to his views on government and politics and the Twitter Musk appears, the more emotional, unrestrained persona that comes across in his frenetic posts. He is lauding billionaires as the most efficient stewards of capital, best placed to decide on the allocation of social benefits. “If the alternative steward of capital is the government, that is actually not going to be to the benefit of the people,” says Musk.He is railing against Joe Biden for being in thrall to the unions but also daring to snub him. “He [Biden] had an electric vehicle summit at the White House and deliberately didn’t invite Tesla last year. Then to follow it up, to add insult to injury, at a big event he said that GM was leading the electric car revolution, in the same quarter that GM shipped 26 electric cars and we shipped 300,000. Does that seem fair to you?“Until recently Musk voted Democrat, although he is now more on the Republican side, or perhaps floating somewhere in between. He says he is considering setting up “the Super Moderate Super Pac” to support candidates with moderate views. He makes a point of telling me that he doesn’t hate Trump, even if he has clashed with him, and insists Biden is simply too old to run for a second term in office. “You don’t want to be too far from the average age of the population because it’s going to be very difficult to stay in touch . . . Maybe one generation away from the average age is OK, but two generations? At the point where you’ve got great-grandchildren, I don’t know, how in touch with the people are you? Is it even possible to be?”I’m subject to literally a million laws and regulations and I obey almost 99.99 per cent of themMusk has a dystopian view of the left’s influence on America, which helps explain his wild pursuit of Twitter to liberate free speech. He blames the fact that his teenage daughter no longer wants to be associated with him on the supposed takeover of elite schools and universities by neo-Marxists. “It’s full-on communism . . . and a general sentiment that if you’re rich, you’re evil,” says Musk. “It [the relationship] may change, but I have very good relationships with all the others [children]. Can’t win them all.“He also has a dim view of regulators, whom he sees as bureaucrats justifying their jobs by going after high-profile targets like him. He seems to be in a constant feud with one regulator or another, whether it’s over his own pronouncements or over the treatment of staff. Musk is unabashed about driving his employees hard. He was bullied as a child (and has also spoken of emotional abuse by his father) but is now sometimes accused of bullying others. He shoots back: if anyone is unhappy working for him, they should work elsewhere because “they’re not chained to the company, it’s voluntary”.Does he ever think he’s above the law? That’s utter nonsense, he tells me: “I’m subject to literally a million laws and regulations and I obey almost 99.99 per cent of them. It’s only when I think the law is contrary to the interest of the people that I have an issue.” I wonder if he means the interest of Elon Musk.There are some topics that amuse Musk, eliciting prolonged laughter, and other questions that are met with deliberate silence before he speaks. The longest silence follows my question about China and the risk to Tesla’s Shanghai factory, which produces between 30 per cent and 50 per cent of Tesla’s total production. Musk has been an admirer of as well as an investor in China. But he is not immune to the gathering US-China tensions or the risk of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Musk says Beijing has made clear its disapproval of his recent rollout of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite communications system, in Ukraine to help the military circumvent Russia’s cut-off of the internet. He says Beijing sought assurances that he would not sell Starlink in China. Musk reckons that conflict over Taiwan is inevitable but he is quick to point out that he won’t be alone in suffering the consequences. Tesla will be caught up in any conflict, he says, though, curiously, he seems to assume that the Shanghai factory will still be able to supply to customers in China, but not anywhere else. “Apple would be in very deep trouble, that’s for sure . . . ” he adds, not to mention the global economy, which he estimates, with precision, will take a 30 per cent hit.It may be Musk’s realisation that business decisions can no longer be made without regard to security and geopolitics — or perhaps it’s simply an arrogant belief that he has all the answers — that now leads him to offer his own solutions to the world’s most complex geopolitical problems. “My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.” I doubt his proposal will be taken up.On Ukraine too, he has advocated a compromise with Russia that has earned him ridicule in Kyiv, where Starlink had made him a hero until now. He launched his peace plan in a poll on Twitter and suggested that Crimea, which Russia invaded in 2014 and later annexed, should simply be given away to Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, shot back with his own Twitter poll: which Elon Musk do you like more, he asked, the one who supports Ukraine or the one who supports Russia?We are over an hour into dinner and Musk is in a hurry, having scheduled a call with his SpaceX team. We skip dessert and I ask for the bill, only to find out it’s already been settled by Musk’s security chief. Musk ignores my protestations that he is flouting Lunch with the FT convention: “You’re indebted to me for life,” he jokes. We head back to the car that is taking him to a private airport to board his jet and he suggests we continue our conversation on the way.I find X exactly where I left him, in his car seat, but he’s more cheerful after his nap. He is cooing as he watches videos of rockets on his iPad while his dad discusses rockets with his team. Suddenly, I notice that the car is driving itself, as if to dispel the doubts I had expressed about Tesla’s self-driving prospects. “It can get to the airport without intervention,” says Musk. Alarmed, I put my seatbelt on. Musk could be a magician, but he could also be wrong.MenuFonda San Miguel2330 W N Loop Blvd, Austin, Texas 78756House frozen margarita $10Modelo Especial beer $6House rocks margarita $10Spicy sauce $0.50Angels on horseback (shrimp with cheese) $18.95Cordero lamb chops $24.95Mixiote slow-cooked lamb $38.95Chile en nogada (chillies in a walnut sauce) $38.95Camarones crema chipotle (shrimp in a spicy chipotle sauce) $34.95Total inc tax $198.37","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914349399,"gmtCreate":1665192586512,"gmtModify":1676537570219,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy","listText":"Crazy","text":"Crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914349399","repostId":"2273842318","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2273842318","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1665188829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2273842318?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-08 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian Is Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273842318","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Rivian Automotive Inc. is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to repair a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed, the company said. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Rivian Automotive Inc. is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to repair a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.</p><p>The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed, the company said. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian Is Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian Is Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-08 08:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Rivian Automotive Inc. is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to repair a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.</p><p>The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed, the company said. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273842318","content_text":"Rivian Automotive Inc. is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to repair a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed, the company said. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915458770,"gmtCreate":1665101863590,"gmtModify":1676537556798,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ridiculous&nbsp;","listText":"Ridiculous&nbsp;","text":"Ridiculous","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915458770","repostId":"2273380432","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2273380432","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1665097989,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2273380432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-07 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Twitter Lawsuit Halted so Elon Musk Can Close Deal By Oct. 28","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273380432","media":"Reuters","summary":"A Delaware judge on Thursday ordered a halt to Twitter Inc's(TWTR.N)lawsuit against Elon Musk on the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A Delaware judge on Thursday ordered a halt to Twitter Inc&#39;s(TWTR.N)lawsuit against Elon Musk on the eve of trial, giving the billionaire time to finance his $44 billion takeover of the social media platform.</p><p>The ruling followed days of uncertainty about Musk&#39;s intentions and removed the threat that the erratic entrepreneur would have to testify under oath this week about his claims that Twitter fraudulently misled him.</p><p>The judge&#39;s order said if Musk, the world&#39;s richest person, failed to close by her Oct. 28 5 p.m. EDT deadline, she would schedule a trial for November.</p><p>“We look forward to closing the transaction at $54.20 by Oct. 28th,” Twitter said in a statement. In an earlier court filing, the company urged the judge to reject the proposal, calling Musk&#39;s plan &#34;an invitation to further mischief and delay.&#34;</p><p>Musk, chief executive of electric carmaker Tesla Inc(TSLA.O), was scheduled to go to trial on Oct. 17 and his Thursday deposition was postponed by mutual agreement.</p><p>Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was down more than 1.65% in after-hours trading, while Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) was 0.5% lower in after-hours trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef242242f3ee26f2b06214f10a39b32\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9bec20fd89afe5e4dc9b4507f16d065\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"848\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>That marked a reversal for Musk, who spent months in litigation with Twitter as he tried to get out of the deal. He claimed Twitter misrepresented the number of real users on its platform, among other claims.</p><p>Musk said in a Thursday court filing banks are working cooperatively to fund the deal but he needed more time. He argued that a brief delay was preferable to the months it would take for a trial and appeal.</p><p>Twitter had said Musk should have to close next week and it said a corporate representative for a lending bank testified on Thursday that Musk has yet to send them a borrowing notice and has not communicated that he intends to close.</p><p>Major banks that committed to fund $12.5 billion, or about 28% of the deal, could be facing hefty losses as the swift pace of interest rate hikes has ratcheted up market volatility and dampenedappetite for leveraged financing.</p><p>&#34;There&#39;s still some uncertainty based on whether or not Elon can find the actual financing to do the deal,&#34; said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Center.</p><p>Musk has raised $15.4 billion by selling Tesla shares this year and is leaning on large investors for a chunk of the financing, leading to speculation over whether he will sell more of the electric-vehicle maker&#39;s stock to fund the deal.</p><p>&#34;Financing will eventually end up going through one way or another. It is just a point of negotiating terms at this stage,&#34; said Robert Gilliland, managing director at Concenture Wealth Management.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twitter Lawsuit Halted so Elon Musk Can Close Deal By Oct. 28</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwitter Lawsuit Halted so Elon Musk Can Close Deal By Oct. 28\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-07 07:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A Delaware judge on Thursday ordered a halt to Twitter Inc&#39;s(TWTR.N)lawsuit against Elon Musk on the eve of trial, giving the billionaire time to finance his $44 billion takeover of the social media platform.</p><p>The ruling followed days of uncertainty about Musk&#39;s intentions and removed the threat that the erratic entrepreneur would have to testify under oath this week about his claims that Twitter fraudulently misled him.</p><p>The judge&#39;s order said if Musk, the world&#39;s richest person, failed to close by her Oct. 28 5 p.m. EDT deadline, she would schedule a trial for November.</p><p>“We look forward to closing the transaction at $54.20 by Oct. 28th,” Twitter said in a statement. In an earlier court filing, the company urged the judge to reject the proposal, calling Musk&#39;s plan &#34;an invitation to further mischief and delay.&#34;</p><p>Musk, chief executive of electric carmaker Tesla Inc(TSLA.O), was scheduled to go to trial on Oct. 17 and his Thursday deposition was postponed by mutual agreement.</p><p>Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was down more than 1.65% in after-hours trading, while Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) was 0.5% lower in after-hours trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef242242f3ee26f2b06214f10a39b32\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9bec20fd89afe5e4dc9b4507f16d065\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"848\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>That marked a reversal for Musk, who spent months in litigation with Twitter as he tried to get out of the deal. He claimed Twitter misrepresented the number of real users on its platform, among other claims.</p><p>Musk said in a Thursday court filing banks are working cooperatively to fund the deal but he needed more time. He argued that a brief delay was preferable to the months it would take for a trial and appeal.</p><p>Twitter had said Musk should have to close next week and it said a corporate representative for a lending bank testified on Thursday that Musk has yet to send them a borrowing notice and has not communicated that he intends to close.</p><p>Major banks that committed to fund $12.5 billion, or about 28% of the deal, could be facing hefty losses as the swift pace of interest rate hikes has ratcheted up market volatility and dampenedappetite for leveraged financing.</p><p>&#34;There&#39;s still some uncertainty based on whether or not Elon can find the actual financing to do the deal,&#34; said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Center.</p><p>Musk has raised $15.4 billion by selling Tesla shares this year and is leaning on large investors for a chunk of the financing, leading to speculation over whether he will sell more of the electric-vehicle maker&#39;s stock to fund the deal.</p><p>&#34;Financing will eventually end up going through one way or another. It is just a point of negotiating terms at this stage,&#34; said Robert Gilliland, managing director at Concenture Wealth Management.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273380432","content_text":"A Delaware judge on Thursday ordered a halt to Twitter Inc's(TWTR.N)lawsuit against Elon Musk on the eve of trial, giving the billionaire time to finance his $44 billion takeover of the social media platform.The ruling followed days of uncertainty about Musk's intentions and removed the threat that the erratic entrepreneur would have to testify under oath this week about his claims that Twitter fraudulently misled him.The judge's order said if Musk, the world's richest person, failed to close by her Oct. 28 5 p.m. EDT deadline, she would schedule a trial for November.“We look forward to closing the transaction at $54.20 by Oct. 28th,” Twitter said in a statement. In an earlier court filing, the company urged the judge to reject the proposal, calling Musk's plan \"an invitation to further mischief and delay.\"Musk, chief executive of electric carmaker Tesla Inc(TSLA.O), was scheduled to go to trial on Oct. 17 and his Thursday deposition was postponed by mutual agreement.Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was down more than 1.65% in after-hours trading, while Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) was 0.5% lower in after-hours trading.That marked a reversal for Musk, who spent months in litigation with Twitter as he tried to get out of the deal. He claimed Twitter misrepresented the number of real users on its platform, among other claims.Musk said in a Thursday court filing banks are working cooperatively to fund the deal but he needed more time. He argued that a brief delay was preferable to the months it would take for a trial and appeal.Twitter had said Musk should have to close next week and it said a corporate representative for a lending bank testified on Thursday that Musk has yet to send them a borrowing notice and has not communicated that he intends to close.Major banks that committed to fund $12.5 billion, or about 28% of the deal, could be facing hefty losses as the swift pace of interest rate hikes has ratcheted up market volatility and dampenedappetite for leveraged financing.\"There's still some uncertainty based on whether or not Elon can find the actual financing to do the deal,\" said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Center.Musk has raised $15.4 billion by selling Tesla shares this year and is leaning on large investors for a chunk of the financing, leading to speculation over whether he will sell more of the electric-vehicle maker's stock to fund the deal.\"Financing will eventually end up going through one way or another. It is just a point of negotiating terms at this stage,\" said Robert Gilliland, managing director at Concenture Wealth Management.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9914230709,"gmtCreate":1665283362001,"gmtModify":1676537582024,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914230709","repostId":"2273397323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968974726,"gmtCreate":1669118094665,"gmtModify":1676538154418,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968974726","repostId":"2285386886","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2285386886","pubTimestamp":1669104486,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2285386886?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-22 16:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285386886","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>As a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.</li><li>But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent position in Taiwan Semiconductor is a notable example.</li><li>The choice is even more puzzling when viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple.</li><li>There are certainly positives with Taiwan Semiconductor, that is, even when compared to Apple.</li><li>However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them, which produces mutual but asymmetric damage.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511f126f81b7dac4ef1687fe1d622bbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Jamie McCarthy</span></p><h2>The investment thesis</h2><p>As a long-time Buffett cultist, I feel comfortable saying that I understand most of his investment choices. But occasionally, the grandmaster still manages to make a move that surprises me such as his recent position in TaiwanSemiconductor (NYSE:TSM). To wit, the recent 13F disclosure showed that Buffett opened a sizable position in TSM for the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) equity portfolio. As you can see from the following chart, his BRK portfolio now holds more than 60.06M shares of TSM with a total worth of over $4.11B. The TSM position is currently the 10thlargest position in the BRK portfolio.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79878ff126c58641fbbd5a5aa3c0b334\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Dataroma.com</span></p><p>The surprise comes in several ways. And the more obvious ways (like Buffett’s allergy to tech businesses) have already been discussed by several other SA authors and I won’t further add to it anymore. Here, I want to explore an angle that is less discussed so far. I want to explain why it feels more puzzling to me, that is besides the fact that Buffett added another tech name to his BRK portfolio, when the TSM position is viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). There are certainly positives with TSM, that is, even when compared to AAPL. As we will detail in the next section, it is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space and an R&amp;D yield that is even better than AAPL.</p><p>However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them and also the ongoing deglobalization mega-trend. According to a recentnews report, TSM’s scheduled price raises in 2023 were rejected by AAPL, by far its largest customer. AAPL currently outsources almost all of its processor manufacturing to factories in Taiwan. However, with the U.S. strategic initiatives to push to develop domestic semiconductor foundry capabilities, AAPL (and other U.S. chip players such Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) too) would be very likely to diversify its chip manufacturing away from TSM. And the damage will be mutual but asymmetric. It is easier for AAPL to find other foundry services to manufacture its chips, and a lot harder for TSM to find such large clients as AAPL.</p><p>The full impact of such tension and diversification will take time to fully manifest. And TSM’s role as the dominating high-end chipmaker in the world won’t change in the near term. But I see these recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of the price raises and the recent passing of the CHIPS act) as the turning point. Taking a broader view, I see these events as a logical step, or even an inevitable step, in the deglobalization process – a mega force that has been unfolding for over 10 years as shown in the chart below. The chart illustrates how globalization, measured as the percentage of total exports out of global GDP, has been in decline since its peak in 2008. The percentage has declined from 61% in 2008 to the to 51.6% in 2020. And since 2020, the China-U.S. trade tension, the COVID, and the Russian/Ukraine war have further quickened its pace.</p><p>In the remainder of this article, I will further analyze the details of these above considerations in more detail.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9d37af226f63d9047697f699ffa010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: The World Bank</span></p><h2>TSM’s valuation advantage</h2><p>First, as mentioned above, there are definitely many positives with TSM even when compared to AAPL. And valuation is an obvious place to start with. As a global leader in the foundry space, it is for sale at a fraction of the overall market and AAPL’s valuation as seen in the chart below.</p><p>To cite a few examples, TSM’s FY1 PE of 12.8x is almost only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Its TTM PE of 13.08x is also about only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Considering that these stocks have different leverages and enterprise values (“EV”), let&#39;s compare their multiples with leverages adjusted too. As you can see, TSM’s discount is even more dramatic in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples. TSM’s FW EV/EBITDA ratio sits at 7.64x only, less than ½ of AAPL’s 18.18x.</p><p>Yes, as you will see in the next section, TSM is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space, further bolstered by its consistent R&amp;D investments and also superb R&amp;D yield that even surpasses AAPL.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9101b641f06753dca5fee60c5e18ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>TSM’s more consistent and aggressive R&amp;D</h2><p>As detailed in our earlier articles:</p><blockquote><i>We do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we feel more comfortable betting on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&amp;D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&amp;D PROCESS. So correspondingly, in the long run, I feel comfortable as long as a tech business can A) sustainably support new R&amp;D expenditures, and B) has demonstrated a consistent R&amp;D yield. I do not feel the need to particularly bet on any one of the new products to be a hit (or a complete failure).</i></blockquote><p>And both TSM and AAPL can sustainably fund their new R&amp;D efforts with no problem in the long term, as illustrated in the next chart. It shows their R&amp;D expenses over the past 10 years as a percentage of their total sales. A few key observations:</p><ul><li>TSM has been investing very consistently in R&amp;D efforts, on average about 8.0% of its total sales.</li><li>AAPL&#39;s R&amp;D expenses have been climbing since Tim Cook took over the company from Jobs. Jobs believed that innovation is not about money and it &#34;has nothing to do with how much R&amp;D money” a business put in. Then Cook gradually increased the R&amp;D investments to the current level of around 6.1% since 2018.</li><li>So even at AAPL’s current R&amp;D level, TSM is still outspending AAPL by about 200 basis points. And also note TSM’s consistency: the R&amp;D expenses only fluctuated in a very narrow range over the past 10 years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ba62925d409c0646d95b62223ef4b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author</span></p><p>More impressively, TSM’s yield on the R&amp;D investment is also superior to AAPL, which is already at a remarkable level by itself as shown in the next chart. The chart used Buffett’s $1 test on R&amp;D expenses. More specifically, the chart quantifies the R&amp;D yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&amp;D expenditures. Thus, the results show how many dollars of profit are generated per $1 of R&amp;D expenses. In particular, in this chart, my analysis used the operating cash flow (“OPC”) as the profit and also took a 3-year moving average on the OPC to approximate a 3-year R&amp;D cycle. And the key observations are:</p><ul><li>The R&amp;D yield is also consistent for TSM, with an average of $6.75 since 2014.</li><li>AAPL’s picture is a bit more colorful. Its R&amp;D yield has been astronomical ($10+ in 2013 and $8+ in 2014 and 2015) thanks to its almost monopoly status in key market segments in those days. Its R&amp;D yield has gradually declined to around ~$4.0 in recent years. And its long-term average was about $5.3.</li><li>To provide a broader view, the FAAMG group features an average R&amp;D yield of ~$2.5 in recent years.</li><li>Thus, both AAPL and TSM boast superb R&amp;D yields even when compared to the overachievers in the FAAMG pack, and TSM’s yield is even higher than AAPL by a large gap.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e8c1b1427c0babf39d38ec60269d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Both enjoy high ROCE too, but AAPL is in its own category</h2><p>To me, ROCE (return on capital employed) is the most fundamental profitability metric as detailed in my blog article (with differences compared to ROE and Q&amp;A on the most frequently received questions from our readers). One key reason for its fundamental importance is that the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and reinvestment rate (“RR”) in the following simple way:</p><p>Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * RR</p><p>The ROCE of TSM and AAPL are shown below for the past 10 years. As you can see, TSM has been maintaining a high ROCE with remarkable consistency here. Its average ROCE has been about 42%. And I cannot overemphasize the consistency – which is a strong indicator of its stable moat. However, AAPL certainly has the upper hand here. Its ROCE is simply a category of its own. It has been hovering around an average of 125% since 2018 after its “declines” from an astronomical (and also unsustainable level in my view) of 200%+ earlier in the decade.</p><p>In terms of RR, both companies have sustainable capital allocation flexibility thanks to their strong cash generation. All told, my analysis shows that TSM has been maintaining an RR in the range between 7.5% to 10% in recent years, and AAPL about 5% to 7.5%.</p><p>So even without the trade tensions and deglobalization process aforementioned, I would project AAPL to have a much better perpetual growth curve ahead than TSM. I projected AAPL’s LT growth rate to be up to 10% (7.5% RR * 125% ROCE ~ 10% annual growth rate). And TSM’s growth rate, on the hand, would be limited to be in the mid-single digit range (say 4% = 10% RR * 42% ROCE).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b3ddd710705df7ba8e09cb93f9b81a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Risks and final thought</h2><p>But to reiterate, I do see the developing tension between TSM and AAPL and the deglobalization process as the overarching forces here. And I only see the differences in terms of valuation, R&amp;D yields, and profitability to be secondary forces in the years to come. The deglobalization mega-trend has been unfolding since 2008. And I see a series of recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of TSM’s price raises, the CHIPS act, the ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions, and also the Russian/Ukraine war) to further exacerbate and accelerate the trend. Under such a mega-trend, I see it as inevitable that key chip clients (such as AAPL, AMD, and NVDA) diversify their manufacturing needs away from TSM.</p><p>And the bottom line is that damage will be mutual but asymmetric the way I see things. It is easier for AAPL to find replacement foundry services but a lot harder for TSM to find replacement clients at the scale of AAPL.</p><p><i>This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-22 16:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285386886","content_text":"SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent position in Taiwan Semiconductor is a notable example.The choice is even more puzzling when viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple.There are certainly positives with Taiwan Semiconductor, that is, even when compared to Apple.However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them, which produces mutual but asymmetric damage.Jamie McCarthyThe investment thesisAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I feel comfortable saying that I understand most of his investment choices. But occasionally, the grandmaster still manages to make a move that surprises me such as his recent position in TaiwanSemiconductor (NYSE:TSM). To wit, the recent 13F disclosure showed that Buffett opened a sizable position in TSM for the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) equity portfolio. As you can see from the following chart, his BRK portfolio now holds more than 60.06M shares of TSM with a total worth of over $4.11B. The TSM position is currently the 10thlargest position in the BRK portfolio.Source: Dataroma.comThe surprise comes in several ways. And the more obvious ways (like Buffett’s allergy to tech businesses) have already been discussed by several other SA authors and I won’t further add to it anymore. Here, I want to explore an angle that is less discussed so far. I want to explain why it feels more puzzling to me, that is besides the fact that Buffett added another tech name to his BRK portfolio, when the TSM position is viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). There are certainly positives with TSM, that is, even when compared to AAPL. As we will detail in the next section, it is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space and an R&D yield that is even better than AAPL.However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them and also the ongoing deglobalization mega-trend. According to a recentnews report, TSM’s scheduled price raises in 2023 were rejected by AAPL, by far its largest customer. AAPL currently outsources almost all of its processor manufacturing to factories in Taiwan. However, with the U.S. strategic initiatives to push to develop domestic semiconductor foundry capabilities, AAPL (and other U.S. chip players such Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) too) would be very likely to diversify its chip manufacturing away from TSM. And the damage will be mutual but asymmetric. It is easier for AAPL to find other foundry services to manufacture its chips, and a lot harder for TSM to find such large clients as AAPL.The full impact of such tension and diversification will take time to fully manifest. And TSM’s role as the dominating high-end chipmaker in the world won’t change in the near term. But I see these recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of the price raises and the recent passing of the CHIPS act) as the turning point. Taking a broader view, I see these events as a logical step, or even an inevitable step, in the deglobalization process – a mega force that has been unfolding for over 10 years as shown in the chart below. The chart illustrates how globalization, measured as the percentage of total exports out of global GDP, has been in decline since its peak in 2008. The percentage has declined from 61% in 2008 to the to 51.6% in 2020. And since 2020, the China-U.S. trade tension, the COVID, and the Russian/Ukraine war have further quickened its pace.In the remainder of this article, I will further analyze the details of these above considerations in more detail.Source: The World BankTSM’s valuation advantageFirst, as mentioned above, there are definitely many positives with TSM even when compared to AAPL. And valuation is an obvious place to start with. As a global leader in the foundry space, it is for sale at a fraction of the overall market and AAPL’s valuation as seen in the chart below.To cite a few examples, TSM’s FY1 PE of 12.8x is almost only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Its TTM PE of 13.08x is also about only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Considering that these stocks have different leverages and enterprise values (“EV”), let's compare their multiples with leverages adjusted too. As you can see, TSM’s discount is even more dramatic in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples. TSM’s FW EV/EBITDA ratio sits at 7.64x only, less than ½ of AAPL’s 18.18x.Yes, as you will see in the next section, TSM is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space, further bolstered by its consistent R&D investments and also superb R&D yield that even surpasses AAPL.Source: Seeking Alpha dataTSM’s more consistent and aggressive R&DAs detailed in our earlier articles:We do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we feel more comfortable betting on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D PROCESS. So correspondingly, in the long run, I feel comfortable as long as a tech business can A) sustainably support new R&D expenditures, and B) has demonstrated a consistent R&D yield. I do not feel the need to particularly bet on any one of the new products to be a hit (or a complete failure).And both TSM and AAPL can sustainably fund their new R&D efforts with no problem in the long term, as illustrated in the next chart. It shows their R&D expenses over the past 10 years as a percentage of their total sales. A few key observations:TSM has been investing very consistently in R&D efforts, on average about 8.0% of its total sales.AAPL's R&D expenses have been climbing since Tim Cook took over the company from Jobs. Jobs believed that innovation is not about money and it \"has nothing to do with how much R&D money” a business put in. Then Cook gradually increased the R&D investments to the current level of around 6.1% since 2018.So even at AAPL’s current R&D level, TSM is still outspending AAPL by about 200 basis points. And also note TSM’s consistency: the R&D expenses only fluctuated in a very narrow range over the past 10 years.Source: AuthorMore impressively, TSM’s yield on the R&D investment is also superior to AAPL, which is already at a remarkable level by itself as shown in the next chart. The chart used Buffett’s $1 test on R&D expenses. More specifically, the chart quantifies the R&D yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. Thus, the results show how many dollars of profit are generated per $1 of R&D expenses. In particular, in this chart, my analysis used the operating cash flow (“OPC”) as the profit and also took a 3-year moving average on the OPC to approximate a 3-year R&D cycle. And the key observations are:The R&D yield is also consistent for TSM, with an average of $6.75 since 2014.AAPL’s picture is a bit more colorful. Its R&D yield has been astronomical ($10+ in 2013 and $8+ in 2014 and 2015) thanks to its almost monopoly status in key market segments in those days. Its R&D yield has gradually declined to around ~$4.0 in recent years. And its long-term average was about $5.3.To provide a broader view, the FAAMG group features an average R&D yield of ~$2.5 in recent years.Thus, both AAPL and TSM boast superb R&D yields even when compared to the overachievers in the FAAMG pack, and TSM’s yield is even higher than AAPL by a large gap.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataBoth enjoy high ROCE too, but AAPL is in its own categoryTo me, ROCE (return on capital employed) is the most fundamental profitability metric as detailed in my blog article (with differences compared to ROE and Q&A on the most frequently received questions from our readers). One key reason for its fundamental importance is that the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and reinvestment rate (“RR”) in the following simple way:Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * RRThe ROCE of TSM and AAPL are shown below for the past 10 years. As you can see, TSM has been maintaining a high ROCE with remarkable consistency here. Its average ROCE has been about 42%. And I cannot overemphasize the consistency – which is a strong indicator of its stable moat. However, AAPL certainly has the upper hand here. Its ROCE is simply a category of its own. It has been hovering around an average of 125% since 2018 after its “declines” from an astronomical (and also unsustainable level in my view) of 200%+ earlier in the decade.In terms of RR, both companies have sustainable capital allocation flexibility thanks to their strong cash generation. All told, my analysis shows that TSM has been maintaining an RR in the range between 7.5% to 10% in recent years, and AAPL about 5% to 7.5%.So even without the trade tensions and deglobalization process aforementioned, I would project AAPL to have a much better perpetual growth curve ahead than TSM. I projected AAPL’s LT growth rate to be up to 10% (7.5% RR * 125% ROCE ~ 10% annual growth rate). And TSM’s growth rate, on the hand, would be limited to be in the mid-single digit range (say 4% = 10% RR * 42% ROCE).Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtBut to reiterate, I do see the developing tension between TSM and AAPL and the deglobalization process as the overarching forces here. And I only see the differences in terms of valuation, R&D yields, and profitability to be secondary forces in the years to come. The deglobalization mega-trend has been unfolding since 2008. And I see a series of recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of TSM’s price raises, the CHIPS act, the ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions, and also the Russian/Ukraine war) to further exacerbate and accelerate the trend. Under such a mega-trend, I see it as inevitable that key chip clients (such as AAPL, AMD, and NVDA) diversify their manufacturing needs away from TSM.And the bottom line is that damage will be mutual but asymmetric the way I see things. It is easier for AAPL to find replacement foundry services but a lot harder for TSM to find replacement clients at the scale of AAPL.This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914294728,"gmtCreate":1665283148864,"gmtModify":1676537581968,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914294728","repostId":"2274280347","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274280347","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1665281908,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2274280347?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-09 10:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Stock-Market Bulls Keep Falling for Fed \"Pivot\" Feints -- and What It Will Take to Put in a Bottom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274280347","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Should you buy stocks now, or wait?Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Should you buy stocks now, or wait?</p><p>Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since stocks began their decline by roughly 25% in January of this year. The right answer likely hinges on whether or not the Federal Reserve follows through with plans to raise its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% or higher, as market-based indicators and the Fed&#39;s latest batch of projections anticipate.</p><p>Global markets are on edge about the possibility of an emerging-markets crisis resulting from higher interest rates and a U.S. dollar at a 20 year high, or a slump in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates, or the collapse of a financial institution due to the worst bond market chaos in a generation.</p><p>Fears that the Fed could cause something in the global economy or financial system to &#34;break&#34; have inspired some to question whether the Fed can successfully whip inflation by hiking interest rates by the most aggressive pace in decades without causing collateral damage.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s efforts are already whipsawing markets almost on a daily basis.</p><p>Ongoing volatility in markets makes it difficult to ascertain when buying opportunities might arrive, said Bill Sterling, the global strategist at GW&amp;K Investment Management.</p><h2>The peak in interest rates matters for stocks</h2><p>A look back at how the Fed has managed monetary policy compared with its own projections offers good reason to be skeptical of expectations surrounding when the Fed will shift back toward a policy of monetary easing.</p><p>It&#39;s important to remember that stocks have often reacted positively when the Fed has shifted back to cutting interest rates. Dating back to August 1984, the S&amp;P 500 indexhas risen on average more than 17% in the 12 months (see chart) that followed a peak in the fed-funds rate range, according toSterling at GW&amp;Kand Fed data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e8a987c0e4f62de3ba0cd8d5759ac7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The chart also shows the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose sharply in the year after the Fed&#39;s brought interest rates to their peak levels in prior monetary policy tightening cycles over roughly the past 40 years.</p><p>The same holds true for bonds, which have historically outperformed after the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking-cycle reached its apex. Sterling said yields historically retreated by, on average, one-fifth of their value, in the 12 months after Fed benchmark rates peaked.</p><p>Still a factor that differentiates modern times from the persistent inflation of the 1980s is the elevated level of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. As Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said, the weakening U.S. economy, plus fears of a crisis breaking out somewhere in global markets, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy.</p><p>But as investors watch markets and economic data, Sterling said that &#34;backward-looking&#34; measures like the U.S. consumer-price index and the personal-consumption expenditures index, aren&#39;t nearly as helpful as &#34;forward looking&#34; gauges, like the breakeven spreads generated by Treasury inflation-protected securities, or survey data like the University of Michigan inflation expectations indicator.</p><p>&#34;The market is caught between these forward looking and encouraging signs that inflation could come off in the next year as seen in the [Treasury inflation-protected securities] yields,&#34; Sterling said.</p><p>Stocks kicked off the past week and fourth quarter with a two-day rally after major indexes ended Sept. 30 at their lowest since 2020. Those gains faded over the course of the week as Fed officials and economic data undercut investor expectations around a potential Fed &#34;pivot&#34; away from its program of aggressive interest-rate increases. Stocks ended the week higher, but with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  up just 2% from its Sept. 30 low, while the S&amp;P 500  trimmed its weekly rise to 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  advanced just 0.7%.</p><p>Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have said that policy makers have no intention of abandoning their interest-rate hiking plan, in what were only the latest round of hawkish comments made by senior Federal Reserve officials.</p><p>However, some on Wall Street are paying less attention to what senior Fed officials are saying and more attention to market-based indicators like Treasury spreads, relative moves in sovereign bond yields, and credit-default spreads, including those of Credit Suisse Inc. (CSGN.EB).</p><p>Costa at Crescat Capital said he sees a growing &#34;disconnect&#34; between the state of markets and the Fed&#39;s aggressive rhetoric, with the odds of a crash growing by the day.</p><p>Because of this, he&#39;s waiting for &#34;the other shoe to drop,&#34; which could be an important turning point for markets.</p><p>He anticipates a blowup will finally force the Fed and other global central banks to back off their policy-tightening agenda, like the Bank of England briefly did last month when it decided to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the gilts market -- although the BoE is preparing to continue raising interest rates to battle inflation</p><p>But before that happens, he expects trading in fixed-income to become as disorderly as it was during the spring of 2020, when the Fed was forced to intervene to avert a bond market collapse at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>&#34;Just look at the differential between Treasury yields compared with junk-bond yields. We have yet to see that spike driven by default risk, which is a sign of a totally dysfunctional market,&#34; Costa said.</p><p>See: Cracks in financial markets fuel debate on whether the next crisis is inevitable</p><p>A simple look in the rearview mirror shows that the Fed&#39;s plans for interest-rate hikes rarely pan out like the central bank expects. Take the last year for example.</p><p>The median projection for the level of the fed-funds rate in September 2021 was just 30 basis points one year ago, according to the Fed&#39;s survey of projections. Turns out, those projections were off by nearly three whole percentage points.</p><p>&#34;Don&#39;t take the Federal Reserve at its word when trying to anticipate the direction of Fed policy over the next year,&#34; Sterling said.</p><h2>Looking ahead to next week</h2><p>Looking ahead to next week, investors will receive some more insight into the state of the U.S. economy, and, by extension, the Fed&#39;s thinking.</p><p>U.S. inflation data will be front and center for markets, with the September consumer-price index due on Thursday. On Friday investors will receive an update from the University of Michigan&#39;s on consumer sentiment survey and its inflation expectations survey.</p><p>The inflation data will be scrutinized especially closely as investors grapple with signs that the U.S. labor market may indeed be starting to weaken, according to Krishna Guha and Peter Williams, two U.S. economists at Evercore ISI.</p><p>The September jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 263,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.55 to 3.7%, but job growth slowed from 537,000 in July, and 315, 000 in August.</p><p>But will inflation show signs of peaking or slowing its rise? Many fear that the crude oil production-quota cuts imposed by OPEC+ earlier this week could push prices higher later in the year.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures market, which allows investors to place bets on the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, anticipates another 75 basis-point rate hike on Nov. 3.</p><p>Beyond that, traders expect the fed-funds rate will top out in February or March at 4.75%, according to the Fed&#39;s FedWatch tool.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Stock-Market Bulls Keep Falling for Fed \"Pivot\" Feints -- and What It Will Take to Put in a Bottom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Stock-Market Bulls Keep Falling for Fed \"Pivot\" Feints -- and What It Will Take to Put in a Bottom\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-09 10:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Should you buy stocks now, or wait?</p><p>Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since stocks began their decline by roughly 25% in January of this year. The right answer likely hinges on whether or not the Federal Reserve follows through with plans to raise its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% or higher, as market-based indicators and the Fed&#39;s latest batch of projections anticipate.</p><p>Global markets are on edge about the possibility of an emerging-markets crisis resulting from higher interest rates and a U.S. dollar at a 20 year high, or a slump in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates, or the collapse of a financial institution due to the worst bond market chaos in a generation.</p><p>Fears that the Fed could cause something in the global economy or financial system to &#34;break&#34; have inspired some to question whether the Fed can successfully whip inflation by hiking interest rates by the most aggressive pace in decades without causing collateral damage.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s efforts are already whipsawing markets almost on a daily basis.</p><p>Ongoing volatility in markets makes it difficult to ascertain when buying opportunities might arrive, said Bill Sterling, the global strategist at GW&amp;K Investment Management.</p><h2>The peak in interest rates matters for stocks</h2><p>A look back at how the Fed has managed monetary policy compared with its own projections offers good reason to be skeptical of expectations surrounding when the Fed will shift back toward a policy of monetary easing.</p><p>It&#39;s important to remember that stocks have often reacted positively when the Fed has shifted back to cutting interest rates. Dating back to August 1984, the S&amp;P 500 indexhas risen on average more than 17% in the 12 months (see chart) that followed a peak in the fed-funds rate range, according toSterling at GW&amp;Kand Fed data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e8a987c0e4f62de3ba0cd8d5759ac7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The chart also shows the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose sharply in the year after the Fed&#39;s brought interest rates to their peak levels in prior monetary policy tightening cycles over roughly the past 40 years.</p><p>The same holds true for bonds, which have historically outperformed after the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking-cycle reached its apex. Sterling said yields historically retreated by, on average, one-fifth of their value, in the 12 months after Fed benchmark rates peaked.</p><p>Still a factor that differentiates modern times from the persistent inflation of the 1980s is the elevated level of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. As Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said, the weakening U.S. economy, plus fears of a crisis breaking out somewhere in global markets, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy.</p><p>But as investors watch markets and economic data, Sterling said that &#34;backward-looking&#34; measures like the U.S. consumer-price index and the personal-consumption expenditures index, aren&#39;t nearly as helpful as &#34;forward looking&#34; gauges, like the breakeven spreads generated by Treasury inflation-protected securities, or survey data like the University of Michigan inflation expectations indicator.</p><p>&#34;The market is caught between these forward looking and encouraging signs that inflation could come off in the next year as seen in the [Treasury inflation-protected securities] yields,&#34; Sterling said.</p><p>Stocks kicked off the past week and fourth quarter with a two-day rally after major indexes ended Sept. 30 at their lowest since 2020. Those gains faded over the course of the week as Fed officials and economic data undercut investor expectations around a potential Fed &#34;pivot&#34; away from its program of aggressive interest-rate increases. Stocks ended the week higher, but with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  up just 2% from its Sept. 30 low, while the S&amp;P 500  trimmed its weekly rise to 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  advanced just 0.7%.</p><p>Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have said that policy makers have no intention of abandoning their interest-rate hiking plan, in what were only the latest round of hawkish comments made by senior Federal Reserve officials.</p><p>However, some on Wall Street are paying less attention to what senior Fed officials are saying and more attention to market-based indicators like Treasury spreads, relative moves in sovereign bond yields, and credit-default spreads, including those of Credit Suisse Inc. (CSGN.EB).</p><p>Costa at Crescat Capital said he sees a growing &#34;disconnect&#34; between the state of markets and the Fed&#39;s aggressive rhetoric, with the odds of a crash growing by the day.</p><p>Because of this, he&#39;s waiting for &#34;the other shoe to drop,&#34; which could be an important turning point for markets.</p><p>He anticipates a blowup will finally force the Fed and other global central banks to back off their policy-tightening agenda, like the Bank of England briefly did last month when it decided to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the gilts market -- although the BoE is preparing to continue raising interest rates to battle inflation</p><p>But before that happens, he expects trading in fixed-income to become as disorderly as it was during the spring of 2020, when the Fed was forced to intervene to avert a bond market collapse at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>&#34;Just look at the differential between Treasury yields compared with junk-bond yields. We have yet to see that spike driven by default risk, which is a sign of a totally dysfunctional market,&#34; Costa said.</p><p>See: Cracks in financial markets fuel debate on whether the next crisis is inevitable</p><p>A simple look in the rearview mirror shows that the Fed&#39;s plans for interest-rate hikes rarely pan out like the central bank expects. Take the last year for example.</p><p>The median projection for the level of the fed-funds rate in September 2021 was just 30 basis points one year ago, according to the Fed&#39;s survey of projections. Turns out, those projections were off by nearly three whole percentage points.</p><p>&#34;Don&#39;t take the Federal Reserve at its word when trying to anticipate the direction of Fed policy over the next year,&#34; Sterling said.</p><h2>Looking ahead to next week</h2><p>Looking ahead to next week, investors will receive some more insight into the state of the U.S. economy, and, by extension, the Fed&#39;s thinking.</p><p>U.S. inflation data will be front and center for markets, with the September consumer-price index due on Thursday. On Friday investors will receive an update from the University of Michigan&#39;s on consumer sentiment survey and its inflation expectations survey.</p><p>The inflation data will be scrutinized especially closely as investors grapple with signs that the U.S. labor market may indeed be starting to weaken, according to Krishna Guha and Peter Williams, two U.S. economists at Evercore ISI.</p><p>The September jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 263,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.55 to 3.7%, but job growth slowed from 537,000 in July, and 315, 000 in August.</p><p>But will inflation show signs of peaking or slowing its rise? Many fear that the crude oil production-quota cuts imposed by OPEC+ earlier this week could push prices higher later in the year.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures market, which allows investors to place bets on the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, anticipates another 75 basis-point rate hike on Nov. 3.</p><p>Beyond that, traders expect the fed-funds rate will top out in February or March at 4.75%, according to the Fed&#39;s FedWatch tool.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274280347","content_text":"Should you buy stocks now, or wait?Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since stocks began their decline by roughly 25% in January of this year. The right answer likely hinges on whether or not the Federal Reserve follows through with plans to raise its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% or higher, as market-based indicators and the Fed's latest batch of projections anticipate.Global markets are on edge about the possibility of an emerging-markets crisis resulting from higher interest rates and a U.S. dollar at a 20 year high, or a slump in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates, or the collapse of a financial institution due to the worst bond market chaos in a generation.Fears that the Fed could cause something in the global economy or financial system to \"break\" have inspired some to question whether the Fed can successfully whip inflation by hiking interest rates by the most aggressive pace in decades without causing collateral damage.The Fed's efforts are already whipsawing markets almost on a daily basis.Ongoing volatility in markets makes it difficult to ascertain when buying opportunities might arrive, said Bill Sterling, the global strategist at GW&K Investment Management.The peak in interest rates matters for stocksA look back at how the Fed has managed monetary policy compared with its own projections offers good reason to be skeptical of expectations surrounding when the Fed will shift back toward a policy of monetary easing.It's important to remember that stocks have often reacted positively when the Fed has shifted back to cutting interest rates. Dating back to August 1984, the S&P 500 indexhas risen on average more than 17% in the 12 months (see chart) that followed a peak in the fed-funds rate range, according toSterling at GW&Kand Fed data.The chart also shows the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose sharply in the year after the Fed's brought interest rates to their peak levels in prior monetary policy tightening cycles over roughly the past 40 years.The same holds true for bonds, which have historically outperformed after the Fed's interest rate hiking-cycle reached its apex. Sterling said yields historically retreated by, on average, one-fifth of their value, in the 12 months after Fed benchmark rates peaked.Still a factor that differentiates modern times from the persistent inflation of the 1980s is the elevated level of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. As Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said, the weakening U.S. economy, plus fears of a crisis breaking out somewhere in global markets, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy.But as investors watch markets and economic data, Sterling said that \"backward-looking\" measures like the U.S. consumer-price index and the personal-consumption expenditures index, aren't nearly as helpful as \"forward looking\" gauges, like the breakeven spreads generated by Treasury inflation-protected securities, or survey data like the University of Michigan inflation expectations indicator.\"The market is caught between these forward looking and encouraging signs that inflation could come off in the next year as seen in the [Treasury inflation-protected securities] yields,\" Sterling said.Stocks kicked off the past week and fourth quarter with a two-day rally after major indexes ended Sept. 30 at their lowest since 2020. Those gains faded over the course of the week as Fed officials and economic data undercut investor expectations around a potential Fed \"pivot\" away from its program of aggressive interest-rate increases. Stocks ended the week higher, but with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  up just 2% from its Sept. 30 low, while the S&P 500  trimmed its weekly rise to 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  advanced just 0.7%.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have said that policy makers have no intention of abandoning their interest-rate hiking plan, in what were only the latest round of hawkish comments made by senior Federal Reserve officials.However, some on Wall Street are paying less attention to what senior Fed officials are saying and more attention to market-based indicators like Treasury spreads, relative moves in sovereign bond yields, and credit-default spreads, including those of Credit Suisse Inc. (CSGN.EB).Costa at Crescat Capital said he sees a growing \"disconnect\" between the state of markets and the Fed's aggressive rhetoric, with the odds of a crash growing by the day.Because of this, he's waiting for \"the other shoe to drop,\" which could be an important turning point for markets.He anticipates a blowup will finally force the Fed and other global central banks to back off their policy-tightening agenda, like the Bank of England briefly did last month when it decided to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the gilts market -- although the BoE is preparing to continue raising interest rates to battle inflationBut before that happens, he expects trading in fixed-income to become as disorderly as it was during the spring of 2020, when the Fed was forced to intervene to avert a bond market collapse at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.\"Just look at the differential between Treasury yields compared with junk-bond yields. We have yet to see that spike driven by default risk, which is a sign of a totally dysfunctional market,\" Costa said.See: Cracks in financial markets fuel debate on whether the next crisis is inevitableA simple look in the rearview mirror shows that the Fed's plans for interest-rate hikes rarely pan out like the central bank expects. Take the last year for example.The median projection for the level of the fed-funds rate in September 2021 was just 30 basis points one year ago, according to the Fed's survey of projections. Turns out, those projections were off by nearly three whole percentage points.\"Don't take the Federal Reserve at its word when trying to anticipate the direction of Fed policy over the next year,\" Sterling said.Looking ahead to next weekLooking ahead to next week, investors will receive some more insight into the state of the U.S. economy, and, by extension, the Fed's thinking.U.S. inflation data will be front and center for markets, with the September consumer-price index due on Thursday. On Friday investors will receive an update from the University of Michigan's on consumer sentiment survey and its inflation expectations survey.The inflation data will be scrutinized especially closely as investors grapple with signs that the U.S. labor market may indeed be starting to weaken, according to Krishna Guha and Peter Williams, two U.S. economists at Evercore ISI.The September jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 263,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.55 to 3.7%, but job growth slowed from 537,000 in July, and 315, 000 in August.But will inflation show signs of peaking or slowing its rise? Many fear that the crude oil production-quota cuts imposed by OPEC+ earlier this week could push prices higher later in the year.Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures market, which allows investors to place bets on the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, anticipates another 75 basis-point rate hike on Nov. 3.Beyond that, traders expect the fed-funds rate will top out in February or March at 4.75%, according to the Fed's FedWatch tool.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914349399,"gmtCreate":1665192586512,"gmtModify":1676537570219,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy","listText":"Crazy","text":"Crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914349399","repostId":"2273842318","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2273842318","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1665188829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2273842318?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-08 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian Is Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273842318","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Rivian Automotive Inc. is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to repair a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed, the company said. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Rivian Automotive Inc. is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to repair a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.</p><p>The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed, the company said. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian Is Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian Is Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-08 08:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Rivian Automotive Inc. is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to repair a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.</p><p>The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed, the company said. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273842318","content_text":"Rivian Automotive Inc. is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to repair a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed, the company said. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984352818,"gmtCreate":1667543105034,"gmtModify":1676537935168,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Okay thanks&nbsp;","text":"Okay thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984352818","repostId":"1191661208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191661208","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667540248,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191661208?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-04 13:37","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Reminder: US Trading Schedule Change Due to Daylight Saving Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191661208","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Please be informed that the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) will end from 6 November 2022, Sunday 3:","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Please be informed that the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) will end from 6 November 2022, Sunday 3:00 am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) to 12 March 2023, Sunday 2:00 am EST (Eastern Standard Time). The time will be moved an hour backward.</p><h2>For investors in Singapore:</h2><p>Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 10:30 pm SGT[Singapore Standard Time] - 5:00 am (the next day)SGT[Singapore Standard Time].</p><h2>For investors in Australia:</h2><p>Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 1:30 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time] - 8:00 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time].</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67860c57965ec57d43055e2dc420cbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US Trading Schedule Change Due to Daylight Saving Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US Trading Schedule Change Due to Daylight Saving Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-04 13:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Please be informed that the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) will end from 6 November 2022, Sunday 3:00 am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) to 12 March 2023, Sunday 2:00 am EST (Eastern Standard Time). The time will be moved an hour backward.</p><h2>For investors in Singapore:</h2><p>Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 10:30 pm SGT[Singapore Standard Time] - 5:00 am (the next day)SGT[Singapore Standard Time].</p><h2>For investors in Australia:</h2><p>Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 1:30 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time] - 8:00 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time].</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67860c57965ec57d43055e2dc420cbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191661208","content_text":"Please be informed that the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) will end from 6 November 2022, Sunday 3:00 am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) to 12 March 2023, Sunday 2:00 am EST (Eastern Standard Time). The time will be moved an hour backward.For investors in Singapore:Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 10:30 pm SGT[Singapore Standard Time] - 5:00 am (the next day)SGT[Singapore Standard Time].For investors in Australia:Trading hours for U.S. markets (EST): Monday to Friday 1:30 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time] - 8:00 am (the next day) AEDT[Australian Eastern Daylight Time].","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943207598,"gmtCreate":1679456881314,"gmtModify":1679456885734,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"\">[微笑]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"‌<a href=\"\">[微笑]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"‌[微笑] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943207598","repostId":"2320695595","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914295163,"gmtCreate":1665282922853,"gmtModify":1676537581921,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interest&nbsp;","listText":"Interest&nbsp;","text":"Interest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914295163","repostId":"1197842233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197842233","pubTimestamp":1665278678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197842233?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-09 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk: \"Aren’t You Entertained?\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197842233","media":"Financial Times","summary":"Musk roars with laughter. “I play the fool on Twitter and often shoot myself in the foot and cause myself all sorts of trouble","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b46ff3c33be5ce8a2e8c863b83fb923\" tg-width=\"1160\" tg-height=\"870\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dinner with Elon Musk begins with a drive in a Tesla. I am seated in the back, next to X, the billionaire’s two-and-a-half-year-old son. It’s around 7pm in Austin, and X is, as one would expect, cranky.</p><p>We had set off to Fonda San Miguel, Musk’s favourite Mexican restaurant, after a visit with an FT colleague to the Tesla Gigafactory on the banks of the Colorado river.</p><p>In this massive site Musk is producing the Y electric SUVs, the latest model in the Tesla collection that has catapulted him to the top of the world’s rich list (net worth: $232bn). Musk, with X perched on his shoulders, had proudly shown off the factory floor as he periodically raged against sluggish investment in lithium refining, which is desperately needed to ease battery shortages around the world.</p><p>Musk’s security chief, the designated driver, comes to the rescue with a milk bottle that soothes X to sleep by the time we reach the restaurant.</p><p>For the next couple of hours, I am better acquainted with the curious character of Elon Musk, the engineer and the visionary, the billionaire and the disrupter, the agitator and the troublemaker.</p><p>Defying armies of sceptics, including myself (full disclosure: until my family rebelled against me and bought a Tesla Model 3 and I started driving it, I was convinced the company would go bankrupt), Musk has built Tesla into a more than $700bn market cap business and forced the car industry to speed up the shift to electric vehicles. Not prone to modesty, Musk estimates he may have accelerated the “advent of sustainable energy” by “10, maybe even 20 years”.</p><p>In just over a decade, he has also transformed the commercial space industry and the economics of space, racing ahead of rivals in building a reusable rocket that can carry passengers. Nasa has picked his Starship to land astronauts on the moon over the next few years. It is now worth around $125bn. One day, or so Musk is convinced, it will be used to colonise Mars.</p><p>Musk is a maverick too, a serial tweeter to his more than 100mn followers who flouts convention, revels in outrageous outbursts, fights with regulators and staff, and taunts competitors. He has regular run-ins with the Securities and Exchange Commission: he was fined and forced to give up his chairmanship of Tesla over 2018 tweets in which he claimed to have secured funding to take Tesla private, statements that a US judge later described as having been made “recklessly”.</p><p>A recent lawsuit accuses Musk of running a pyramid scheme to prop up dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that is, literally, based on a joke — an internet meme of a Japanese dog. Dogecoin has predictably crashed but Musk’s enthusiasm has not: he twins his black jeans with a black T-shirt featuring an image of the dog.</p><p>Why does a serious guy with serious ideas indulge in silly Twitter games that could also cost his followers dearly? “Aren’t you entertained?” Musk roars with laughter. “I play the fool on Twitter and often shoot myself in the foot and cause myself all sorts of trouble . . . I don’t know, I find it vaguely therapeutic to express myself on Twitter. It’s a way to get messages out to the public.”</p><p>It is fair to say that Musk is obsessed with Twitter, so much so that he’s been embroiled in an epic on/off buyout of the platform that has captivated Wall Street and the tech industry for months. Twitter sued Musk (and he sued back) after he backed out of a $44bn acquisition deal he made in April, accusing the social media company of under-reporting the number of bots on the platform. This week, and just before his scheduled deposition, Musk changed his mind. He now says he wants to buy Twitter again.</p><p>I had asked over dinner whether his original offer had been a bad joke. “Twitter is certainly an invitation to increase your pain level,” he says. “I guess I must be a masochist . . . ” But he makes no secret that his interest in the company has never been primarily financial: “I’m not doing Twitter for the money. It’s not like I’m trying to buy some yacht and I can’t afford it. I don’t own any boats. But I think it’s important that people have a maximally trusted and inclusive means of exchanging ideas and that it should be as trusted and transparent as possible.” The alternative, he says, is a splintering of debate into different social-media bubbles, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s Truth Social network. “It [Truth Social] is essentially a rightwing echo chamber. It might as well be called Trumpet.”</p><p>Musk doesn’t eat lunch, possibly because an unflattering picture in a swimsuit taken on a yacht in Mykonos went viral over the summer. Since then, he has been on a diet.</p><p>At Fonda San Miguel, a teeming Mexican restaurant that promises a regional culinary experience, he is a familiar dinner customer. He orders a frozen margarita (he calls it a slushy with alcohol) and I order a beer. Musk looks around. “There’s a good buzz in this restaurant,” he says approvingly, and suggests to the waiter that they serve us some of their specialities. Musk is telling me that companies are like children when the first plates land on the table: the lamb chops in a pepper sauce, and shrimp with cheese and jalapeños. The food is “epic”, Musk gasps.</p><blockquote>It’s important that people die. How long would you have liked Stalin to live?</blockquote><p>Musk is capricious, but he sees himself as a problem solver, and the problem is everything from the potential end of life on Earth to climate change and even traffic (his Boring company is building tunnels). Recently, he has dreamt up his own (rather unhelpful) peace plan for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Born and raised in South Africa in a well-to-do family, he landed in California after studying economics and physics in Canada and Pennsylvania. One of his first big ideas was well ahead of its time: he wanted to revolutionise banking. He merged an online payments business he co-founded with another company in what became PayPal. When PayPal was sold to eBay, he used the money to start SpaceX and invest in Tesla.</p><p>Ageing strikes me as the only threat to humans that he is not attempting to resolve, though another company he founded, Neuralink, is designing chips that will be implanted in the brain to restore sensory and motor function. Musk is very exercised about population decline, and claims to be doing his part to populate Earth by having 10 children (from various partners), including, it was recently reported, twins with an executive at Neuralink.</p><p>He scoffs when I inquire if there are other children he has fathered — “I’m pretty sure there are no other babies looming” — and he dismisses the wild rumours that he has bought a fertility clinic to support his production of babies. Some friends, he reveals, have indeed suggested he should have 500 kids, but that would be a “bit weird”. Referring to himself, aged 51, as an “autumn chicken”, he says he may have more children, but only to the extent that he can be a good father to them. Nonetheless, he predicts that “the current trend for most countries is that civilisation will not die with a bang, it will die with a whimper in adult diapers”. But he says ageing should not be solved. “It’s important that people die. How long would you have liked Stalin to live?” That is a good point.</p><p>Musk’s bigger worry is the preservation of life beyond Earth. His solution is to populate Mars. “Something will happen to Earth eventually, it’s just a question of time. Eventually the sun will expand and destroy all life on Earth, so we do need to move at some point, or at least be a multi-planet species,” he says. “You have to ask the question: do we want to be a space-flying civilisation and a multi-planet species or not?” I’m not sure what I think but Musk is emphatic. “It’s a question of what percentage of resources should we devote to such an endeavour? I think if you say 1 per cent of resources, that’s probably a reasonable amount.“</p><p>Would Musk himself join the pioneering colony on Mars? “Especially if I’m getting old, I’ll do it. Why not?” he says. But how useful would he be to Mars if he’s too old? “I think there’s some non-trivial chance of dying, so I’d prefer to take that chance when I’m a bit older, and see my kids grow up. Rather than right now, where little X is only two-and-a-half. I think he’d miss me.”</p><p>The table is too small for the large plates we are sharing as a second course: a slow-cooked lamb that melts in the mouth, chillies in a walnut-based sauce and shrimp in creamy chipotle sauce. Musk is right: it is the best Mexican food I’ve ever had.</p><p>We turn to his views on government and politics and the Twitter Musk appears, the more emotional, unrestrained persona that comes across in his frenetic posts. He is lauding billionaires as the most efficient stewards of capital, best placed to decide on the allocation of social benefits. “If the alternative steward of capital is the government, that is actually not going to be to the benefit of the people,” says Musk.</p><p>He is railing against Joe Biden for being in thrall to the unions but also daring to snub him. “He [Biden] had an electric vehicle summit at the White House and deliberately didn’t invite Tesla last year. Then to follow it up, to add insult to injury, at a big event he said that GM was leading the electric car revolution, in the same quarter that GM shipped 26 electric cars and we shipped 300,000. Does that seem fair to you?“</p><p>Until recently Musk voted Democrat, although he is now more on the Republican side, or perhaps floating somewhere in between. He says he is considering setting up “the Super Moderate Super Pac” to support candidates with moderate views. He makes a point of telling me that he doesn’t hate Trump, even if he has clashed with him, and insists Biden is simply too old to run for a second term in office. “You don’t want to be too far from the average age of the population because it’s going to be very difficult to stay in touch . . . Maybe one generation away from the average age is OK, but two generations? At the point where you’ve got great-grandchildren, I don’t know, how in touch with the people are you? Is it even possible to be?”</p><blockquote>I’m subject to literally a million laws and regulations and I obey almost 99.99 per cent of them</blockquote><p>Musk has a dystopian view of the left’s influence on America, which helps explain his wild pursuit of Twitter to liberate free speech. He blames the fact that his teenage daughter no longer wants to be associated with him on the supposed takeover of elite schools and universities by neo-Marxists. “It’s full-on communism . . . and a general sentiment that if you’re rich, you’re evil,” says Musk. “It [the relationship] may change, but I have very good relationships with all the others [children]. Can’t win them all.“</p><p>He also has a dim view of regulators, whom he sees as bureaucrats justifying their jobs by going after high-profile targets like him. He seems to be in a constant feud with one regulator or another, whether it’s over his own pronouncements or over the treatment of staff. Musk is unabashed about driving his employees hard. He was bullied as a child (and has also spoken of emotional abuse by his father) but is now sometimes accused of bullying others. He shoots back: if anyone is unhappy working for him, they should work elsewhere because “they’re not chained to the company, it’s voluntary”.</p><p>Does he ever think he’s above the law? That’s utter nonsense, he tells me: “I’m subject to literally a million laws and regulations and I obey almost 99.99 per cent of them. It’s only when I think the law is contrary to the interest of the people that I have an issue.” I wonder if he means the interest of Elon Musk.</p><p>There are some topics that amuse Musk, eliciting prolonged laughter, and other questions that are met with deliberate silence before he speaks. The longest silence follows my question about China and the risk to Tesla’s Shanghai factory, which produces between 30 per cent and 50 per cent of Tesla’s total production. Musk has been an admirer of as well as an investor in China. But he is not immune to the gathering US-China tensions or the risk of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Musk says Beijing has made clear its disapproval of his recent rollout of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite communications system, in Ukraine to help the military circumvent Russia’s cut-off of the internet. He says Beijing sought assurances that he would not sell Starlink in China. Musk reckons that conflict over Taiwan is inevitable but he is quick to point out that he won’t be alone in suffering the consequences. Tesla will be caught up in any conflict, he says, though, curiously, he seems to assume that the Shanghai factory will still be able to supply to customers in China, but not anywhere else. “Apple would be in very deep trouble, that’s for sure . . . ” he adds, not to mention the global economy, which he estimates, with precision, will take a 30 per cent hit.</p><p>It may be Musk’s realisation that business decisions can no longer be made without regard to security and geopolitics — or perhaps it’s simply an arrogant belief that he has all the answers — that now leads him to offer his own solutions to the world’s most complex geopolitical problems. “My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.” I doubt his proposal will be taken up.</p><p>On Ukraine too, he has advocated a compromise with Russia that has earned him ridicule in Kyiv, where Starlink had made him a hero until now. He launched his peace plan in a poll on Twitter and suggested that Crimea, which Russia invaded in 2014 and later annexed, should simply be given away to Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, shot back with his own Twitter poll: which Elon Musk do you like more, he asked, the one who supports Ukraine or the one who supports Russia?</p><p>We are over an hour into dinner and Musk is in a hurry, having scheduled a call with his SpaceX team. We skip dessert and I ask for the bill, only to find out it’s already been settled by Musk’s security chief. Musk ignores my protestations that he is flouting Lunch with the FT convention: “You’re indebted to me for life,” he jokes. We head back to the car that is taking him to a private airport to board his jet and he suggests we continue our conversation on the way.</p><p>I find X exactly where I left him, in his car seat, but he’s more cheerful after his nap. He is cooing as he watches videos of rockets on his iPad while his dad discusses rockets with his team. Suddenly, I notice that the car is driving itself, as if to dispel the doubts I had expressed about Tesla’s self-driving prospects. “It can get to the airport without intervention,” says Musk. Alarmed, I put my seatbelt on. Musk could be a magician, but he could also be wrong.</p><p><b>Menu</b></p><p>Fonda San Miguel</p><p>2330 W N Loop Blvd, Austin, Texas 78756</p><p>House frozen margarita $10</p><p>Modelo Especial beer $6</p><p>House rocks margarita $10</p><p>Spicy sauce $0.50</p><p>Angels on horseback (shrimp with cheese) $18.95</p><p>Cordero lamb chops $24.95</p><p>Mixiote slow-cooked lamb $38.95</p><p>Chile en nogada (chillies in a walnut sauce) $38.95</p><p>Camarones crema chipotle (shrimp in a spicy chipotle sauce) $34.95</p><p>Total inc tax $198.37</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1580170736413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk: \"Aren’t You Entertained?\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk: \"Aren’t You Entertained?\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-09 09:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.ft.com/content/5ef14997-982e-4f03-8548-b5d67202623a><strong>Financial Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dinner with Elon Musk begins with a drive in a Tesla. I am seated in the back, next to X, the billionaire’s two-and-a-half-year-old son. It’s around 7pm in Austin, and X is, as one would expect, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/5ef14997-982e-4f03-8548-b5d67202623a\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://www.ft.com/content/5ef14997-982e-4f03-8548-b5d67202623a","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197842233","content_text":"Dinner with Elon Musk begins with a drive in a Tesla. I am seated in the back, next to X, the billionaire’s two-and-a-half-year-old son. It’s around 7pm in Austin, and X is, as one would expect, cranky.We had set off to Fonda San Miguel, Musk’s favourite Mexican restaurant, after a visit with an FT colleague to the Tesla Gigafactory on the banks of the Colorado river.In this massive site Musk is producing the Y electric SUVs, the latest model in the Tesla collection that has catapulted him to the top of the world’s rich list (net worth: $232bn). Musk, with X perched on his shoulders, had proudly shown off the factory floor as he periodically raged against sluggish investment in lithium refining, which is desperately needed to ease battery shortages around the world.Musk’s security chief, the designated driver, comes to the rescue with a milk bottle that soothes X to sleep by the time we reach the restaurant.For the next couple of hours, I am better acquainted with the curious character of Elon Musk, the engineer and the visionary, the billionaire and the disrupter, the agitator and the troublemaker.Defying armies of sceptics, including myself (full disclosure: until my family rebelled against me and bought a Tesla Model 3 and I started driving it, I was convinced the company would go bankrupt), Musk has built Tesla into a more than $700bn market cap business and forced the car industry to speed up the shift to electric vehicles. Not prone to modesty, Musk estimates he may have accelerated the “advent of sustainable energy” by “10, maybe even 20 years”.In just over a decade, he has also transformed the commercial space industry and the economics of space, racing ahead of rivals in building a reusable rocket that can carry passengers. Nasa has picked his Starship to land astronauts on the moon over the next few years. It is now worth around $125bn. One day, or so Musk is convinced, it will be used to colonise Mars.Musk is a maverick too, a serial tweeter to his more than 100mn followers who flouts convention, revels in outrageous outbursts, fights with regulators and staff, and taunts competitors. He has regular run-ins with the Securities and Exchange Commission: he was fined and forced to give up his chairmanship of Tesla over 2018 tweets in which he claimed to have secured funding to take Tesla private, statements that a US judge later described as having been made “recklessly”.A recent lawsuit accuses Musk of running a pyramid scheme to prop up dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that is, literally, based on a joke — an internet meme of a Japanese dog. Dogecoin has predictably crashed but Musk’s enthusiasm has not: he twins his black jeans with a black T-shirt featuring an image of the dog.Why does a serious guy with serious ideas indulge in silly Twitter games that could also cost his followers dearly? “Aren’t you entertained?” Musk roars with laughter. “I play the fool on Twitter and often shoot myself in the foot and cause myself all sorts of trouble . . . I don’t know, I find it vaguely therapeutic to express myself on Twitter. It’s a way to get messages out to the public.”It is fair to say that Musk is obsessed with Twitter, so much so that he’s been embroiled in an epic on/off buyout of the platform that has captivated Wall Street and the tech industry for months. Twitter sued Musk (and he sued back) after he backed out of a $44bn acquisition deal he made in April, accusing the social media company of under-reporting the number of bots on the platform. This week, and just before his scheduled deposition, Musk changed his mind. He now says he wants to buy Twitter again.I had asked over dinner whether his original offer had been a bad joke. “Twitter is certainly an invitation to increase your pain level,” he says. “I guess I must be a masochist . . . ” But he makes no secret that his interest in the company has never been primarily financial: “I’m not doing Twitter for the money. It’s not like I’m trying to buy some yacht and I can’t afford it. I don’t own any boats. But I think it’s important that people have a maximally trusted and inclusive means of exchanging ideas and that it should be as trusted and transparent as possible.” The alternative, he says, is a splintering of debate into different social-media bubbles, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s Truth Social network. “It [Truth Social] is essentially a rightwing echo chamber. It might as well be called Trumpet.”Musk doesn’t eat lunch, possibly because an unflattering picture in a swimsuit taken on a yacht in Mykonos went viral over the summer. Since then, he has been on a diet.At Fonda San Miguel, a teeming Mexican restaurant that promises a regional culinary experience, he is a familiar dinner customer. He orders a frozen margarita (he calls it a slushy with alcohol) and I order a beer. Musk looks around. “There’s a good buzz in this restaurant,” he says approvingly, and suggests to the waiter that they serve us some of their specialities. Musk is telling me that companies are like children when the first plates land on the table: the lamb chops in a pepper sauce, and shrimp with cheese and jalapeños. The food is “epic”, Musk gasps.It’s important that people die. How long would you have liked Stalin to live?Musk is capricious, but he sees himself as a problem solver, and the problem is everything from the potential end of life on Earth to climate change and even traffic (his Boring company is building tunnels). Recently, he has dreamt up his own (rather unhelpful) peace plan for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Born and raised in South Africa in a well-to-do family, he landed in California after studying economics and physics in Canada and Pennsylvania. One of his first big ideas was well ahead of its time: he wanted to revolutionise banking. He merged an online payments business he co-founded with another company in what became PayPal. When PayPal was sold to eBay, he used the money to start SpaceX and invest in Tesla.Ageing strikes me as the only threat to humans that he is not attempting to resolve, though another company he founded, Neuralink, is designing chips that will be implanted in the brain to restore sensory and motor function. Musk is very exercised about population decline, and claims to be doing his part to populate Earth by having 10 children (from various partners), including, it was recently reported, twins with an executive at Neuralink.He scoffs when I inquire if there are other children he has fathered — “I’m pretty sure there are no other babies looming” — and he dismisses the wild rumours that he has bought a fertility clinic to support his production of babies. Some friends, he reveals, have indeed suggested he should have 500 kids, but that would be a “bit weird”. Referring to himself, aged 51, as an “autumn chicken”, he says he may have more children, but only to the extent that he can be a good father to them. Nonetheless, he predicts that “the current trend for most countries is that civilisation will not die with a bang, it will die with a whimper in adult diapers”. But he says ageing should not be solved. “It’s important that people die. How long would you have liked Stalin to live?” That is a good point.Musk’s bigger worry is the preservation of life beyond Earth. His solution is to populate Mars. “Something will happen to Earth eventually, it’s just a question of time. Eventually the sun will expand and destroy all life on Earth, so we do need to move at some point, or at least be a multi-planet species,” he says. “You have to ask the question: do we want to be a space-flying civilisation and a multi-planet species or not?” I’m not sure what I think but Musk is emphatic. “It’s a question of what percentage of resources should we devote to such an endeavour? I think if you say 1 per cent of resources, that’s probably a reasonable amount.“Would Musk himself join the pioneering colony on Mars? “Especially if I’m getting old, I’ll do it. Why not?” he says. But how useful would he be to Mars if he’s too old? “I think there’s some non-trivial chance of dying, so I’d prefer to take that chance when I’m a bit older, and see my kids grow up. Rather than right now, where little X is only two-and-a-half. I think he’d miss me.”The table is too small for the large plates we are sharing as a second course: a slow-cooked lamb that melts in the mouth, chillies in a walnut-based sauce and shrimp in creamy chipotle sauce. Musk is right: it is the best Mexican food I’ve ever had.We turn to his views on government and politics and the Twitter Musk appears, the more emotional, unrestrained persona that comes across in his frenetic posts. He is lauding billionaires as the most efficient stewards of capital, best placed to decide on the allocation of social benefits. “If the alternative steward of capital is the government, that is actually not going to be to the benefit of the people,” says Musk.He is railing against Joe Biden for being in thrall to the unions but also daring to snub him. “He [Biden] had an electric vehicle summit at the White House and deliberately didn’t invite Tesla last year. Then to follow it up, to add insult to injury, at a big event he said that GM was leading the electric car revolution, in the same quarter that GM shipped 26 electric cars and we shipped 300,000. Does that seem fair to you?“Until recently Musk voted Democrat, although he is now more on the Republican side, or perhaps floating somewhere in between. He says he is considering setting up “the Super Moderate Super Pac” to support candidates with moderate views. He makes a point of telling me that he doesn’t hate Trump, even if he has clashed with him, and insists Biden is simply too old to run for a second term in office. “You don’t want to be too far from the average age of the population because it’s going to be very difficult to stay in touch . . . Maybe one generation away from the average age is OK, but two generations? At the point where you’ve got great-grandchildren, I don’t know, how in touch with the people are you? Is it even possible to be?”I’m subject to literally a million laws and regulations and I obey almost 99.99 per cent of themMusk has a dystopian view of the left’s influence on America, which helps explain his wild pursuit of Twitter to liberate free speech. He blames the fact that his teenage daughter no longer wants to be associated with him on the supposed takeover of elite schools and universities by neo-Marxists. “It’s full-on communism . . . and a general sentiment that if you’re rich, you’re evil,” says Musk. “It [the relationship] may change, but I have very good relationships with all the others [children]. Can’t win them all.“He also has a dim view of regulators, whom he sees as bureaucrats justifying their jobs by going after high-profile targets like him. He seems to be in a constant feud with one regulator or another, whether it’s over his own pronouncements or over the treatment of staff. Musk is unabashed about driving his employees hard. He was bullied as a child (and has also spoken of emotional abuse by his father) but is now sometimes accused of bullying others. He shoots back: if anyone is unhappy working for him, they should work elsewhere because “they’re not chained to the company, it’s voluntary”.Does he ever think he’s above the law? That’s utter nonsense, he tells me: “I’m subject to literally a million laws and regulations and I obey almost 99.99 per cent of them. It’s only when I think the law is contrary to the interest of the people that I have an issue.” I wonder if he means the interest of Elon Musk.There are some topics that amuse Musk, eliciting prolonged laughter, and other questions that are met with deliberate silence before he speaks. The longest silence follows my question about China and the risk to Tesla’s Shanghai factory, which produces between 30 per cent and 50 per cent of Tesla’s total production. Musk has been an admirer of as well as an investor in China. But he is not immune to the gathering US-China tensions or the risk of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Musk says Beijing has made clear its disapproval of his recent rollout of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite communications system, in Ukraine to help the military circumvent Russia’s cut-off of the internet. He says Beijing sought assurances that he would not sell Starlink in China. Musk reckons that conflict over Taiwan is inevitable but he is quick to point out that he won’t be alone in suffering the consequences. Tesla will be caught up in any conflict, he says, though, curiously, he seems to assume that the Shanghai factory will still be able to supply to customers in China, but not anywhere else. “Apple would be in very deep trouble, that’s for sure . . . ” he adds, not to mention the global economy, which he estimates, with precision, will take a 30 per cent hit.It may be Musk’s realisation that business decisions can no longer be made without regard to security and geopolitics — or perhaps it’s simply an arrogant belief that he has all the answers — that now leads him to offer his own solutions to the world’s most complex geopolitical problems. “My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.” I doubt his proposal will be taken up.On Ukraine too, he has advocated a compromise with Russia that has earned him ridicule in Kyiv, where Starlink had made him a hero until now. He launched his peace plan in a poll on Twitter and suggested that Crimea, which Russia invaded in 2014 and later annexed, should simply be given away to Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, shot back with his own Twitter poll: which Elon Musk do you like more, he asked, the one who supports Ukraine or the one who supports Russia?We are over an hour into dinner and Musk is in a hurry, having scheduled a call with his SpaceX team. We skip dessert and I ask for the bill, only to find out it’s already been settled by Musk’s security chief. Musk ignores my protestations that he is flouting Lunch with the FT convention: “You’re indebted to me for life,” he jokes. We head back to the car that is taking him to a private airport to board his jet and he suggests we continue our conversation on the way.I find X exactly where I left him, in his car seat, but he’s more cheerful after his nap. He is cooing as he watches videos of rockets on his iPad while his dad discusses rockets with his team. Suddenly, I notice that the car is driving itself, as if to dispel the doubts I had expressed about Tesla’s self-driving prospects. “It can get to the airport without intervention,” says Musk. Alarmed, I put my seatbelt on. Musk could be a magician, but he could also be wrong.MenuFonda San Miguel2330 W N Loop Blvd, Austin, Texas 78756House frozen margarita $10Modelo Especial beer $6House rocks margarita $10Spicy sauce $0.50Angels on horseback (shrimp with cheese) $18.95Cordero lamb chops $24.95Mixiote slow-cooked lamb $38.95Chile en nogada (chillies in a walnut sauce) $38.95Camarones crema chipotle (shrimp in a spicy chipotle sauce) $34.95Total inc tax $198.37","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915458770,"gmtCreate":1665101863590,"gmtModify":1676537556798,"author":{"id":"4122195213805972","authorId":"4122195213805972","name":"LeonKoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11b59b5e3b3c7f80bbb18d37db3f4b0a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ridiculous&nbsp;","listText":"Ridiculous&nbsp;","text":"Ridiculous","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915458770","repostId":"2273380432","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}