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Last night and this morning | Bone-chilling cold! All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% for the week, with FedEx plunging 21%.

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2022-10-01

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2022-10-01

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Firsthand experience of the UK crisis: The entire pension market was almost destroyed!

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48b48ff660262cd1392797d60fd39906","width":"1125","height":"2079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916854300","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916852858,"gmtCreate":1664578423774,"gmtModify":1676537478148,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916852858","repostId":"1146232184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146232184","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664542806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146232184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 21:00","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Firsthand experience of the UK crisis: The entire pension market was almost destroyed!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146232184","media":"三思期权","summary":"巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Having personally experienced this week's storm, this short essay commemorates it in the form of a notebook. This week has been incredibly exhausting. Besides being mentally exhausted, I also feel a little regretful that I didn't have any foresight about such a big event, which is why I missed this black swan trade.</p><p>How do you describe what happened this week? I feel like it's closest to March 2020. UK interest rates and the pound market completely collapsed, the entire UK pension market nearly collapsed, and the LDI industry within pensions collapsed overnight. If the entire pension market collapses, it won't be March anymore; it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank intervened to rescue the market.</p><p>I've been so exhausted these past two days that I don't want to write too much. For basic knowledge about what's happening in the market, you can check out this article by Degg_GlobalMacroFin. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experiences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, who almost single-handedly destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, the leverage in the LDI industry cannot be blamed on them. However, introducing unrestrained tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost caused the sudden demise of the pension market.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that the idiotic tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp rise in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses on Interest rates (Interest rate swaps) used by many pension funds in LDI funds to hedge against Interest rate and inflation risks. Huge losses themselves aren't so terrible; what's most terrifying is the short-term, continuous huge losses that cause the margin to run out quickly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the 30-year interest rate in the UK surged 230 basis points. How much impact will this surge have on these LDI funds that hold interest rate swaps? We can make a rough estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>A pension fund with a scale of 1 billion yuan holds approximately two million yuan in DV01 (profit or loss resulting from a one-basis-point interest rate change) from interest rate swaps in its LDI fund. This means that over the past two months, due to a 230-basis-point change in the 30-year interest rate, the loss resulting from the interest rate swap is 230 * 2m = 460m. In other words, the losses resulting from the interest rate swap over the past two months amount to nearly half of the pension fund's assets!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not a real loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge against the liabilities of pension funds, if the interest rate swaps result in losses, the value of the liabilities will also decrease. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedging transaction that will not result in any losses.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>However, however, in the previous example, after losing 400 million in such a short period of time, those LDI funds first sold their most liquid UK Treasury Bond to raise funds to cover the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Those who know a little about over-the-counter trading might ask, why don't these funds use these UK Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings us to another topic: the interest rate swap market has undergone a major transformation in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have moved from simple over-the-counter transactions to centrally cleared over-the-counter transactions. The clearing house is LCH, and currently only cash can be used as security.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Okay, here comes the key point: this is the most important step in the death spiral. The UK Treasury Bond rate and the UK interest rate swap rate are actually quite similar. Because the interest rate swap resulted in losses, the fund manager had to sell Treasury Bond to cover margin. The massive sell-off of Treasury Bond led to rising interest rates in Treasury Bond, while rising interest rates in Treasury Bond led to higher interest rates on interest rate swaps. These rising interest rates led fund managers to sell more Treasury Bond to replenish margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Financial markets are neither afraid of rising nor falling; when prices are low, people will naturally buy, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, pension assets totaled approximately £1.5 trillion at the end of August. In other words, the rough estimate of the margin requirements caused by the losses in the LDI strategy of the entire pension fund over the past two months is 690 billion yuan. My friend's LDI desk paid 1.2 billion yuan in back deposits in one day last Friday! Yes, a desk costs 1.2 billion a day!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>During the sell-off, Treasury Bond sold out, leaving only other assets to be sold. First and foremost, there are stocks with high liquidity. This caused stocks to fall as well, and indiscriminately. Because there are requirements for the speed at which pension funds can be replenished during this process (usually T+0), they can only be sold blindly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Stocks will fall if they fall; if they get cheap, people will naturally buy them. However, another crucial point in the whole process is that these pension funds have significantly increased their allocation to illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, over the past 10 years. These are not things you can redeem just because you want to. This creates a huge problem: liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If you can't sell it, sorry, if you can't pay the margin, those interest rate swap positions will be exploded. Investment banking desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This has led to the interest rate on interest rate swaps continuing to rise! This will further drag down other well-liquid pension funds.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the entire interest rate swap market had been paralyzed, and most market makers had already left the market. Previously, the spread between buying and selling one-year UK interest rate swaps was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but by then it had risen to 9-10 bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is to wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank took decisive action, implementing quantitative easing (QE) to curb the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral was broken. It brought many pension funds and LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not everyone saw the dawn. Several large UK asset management companies' LDI funds exploded. Just look at their stock prices... I won't reveal their names, just be polite.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst were those pensions that collapsed on the eve of dawn, and the holders who lived off them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the market rescue had been delayed by another two days, the entire pension industry would have collapsed.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this major upheaval in the LDI industry, even surviving funds will find it difficult to continue to survive, and the biggest flaw in the industry's business model has been exposed. Without leverage, the industry would not survive. It can only be said that this industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the British Treasury Bond rose by 40% in one day in 50 years! Who says Treasury Bond is rising slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1607924588218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Firsthand experience of the UK crisis: The entire pension market was almost destroyed!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFirsthand experience of the UK crisis: The entire pension market was almost destroyed!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">三思期权</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Having personally experienced this week's storm, this short essay commemorates it in the form of a notebook. This week has been incredibly exhausting. Besides being mentally exhausted, I also feel a little regretful that I didn't have any foresight about such a big event, which is why I missed this black swan trade.</p><p>How do you describe what happened this week? I feel like it's closest to March 2020. UK interest rates and the pound market completely collapsed, the entire UK pension market nearly collapsed, and the LDI industry within pensions collapsed overnight. If the entire pension market collapses, it won't be March anymore; it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank intervened to rescue the market.</p><p>I've been so exhausted these past two days that I don't want to write too much. For basic knowledge about what's happening in the market, you can check out this article by Degg_GlobalMacroFin. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experiences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, who almost single-handedly destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, the leverage in the LDI industry cannot be blamed on them. However, introducing unrestrained tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost caused the sudden demise of the pension market.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that the idiotic tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp rise in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses on Interest rates (Interest rate swaps) used by many pension funds in LDI funds to hedge against Interest rate and inflation risks. Huge losses themselves aren't so terrible; what's most terrifying is the short-term, continuous huge losses that cause the margin to run out quickly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the 30-year interest rate in the UK surged 230 basis points. How much impact will this surge have on these LDI funds that hold interest rate swaps? We can make a rough estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>A pension fund with a scale of 1 billion yuan holds approximately two million yuan in DV01 (profit or loss resulting from a one-basis-point interest rate change) from interest rate swaps in its LDI fund. This means that over the past two months, due to a 230-basis-point change in the 30-year interest rate, the loss resulting from the interest rate swap is 230 * 2m = 460m. In other words, the losses resulting from the interest rate swap over the past two months amount to nearly half of the pension fund's assets!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not a real loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge against the liabilities of pension funds, if the interest rate swaps result in losses, the value of the liabilities will also decrease. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedging transaction that will not result in any losses.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>However, however, in the previous example, after losing 400 million in such a short period of time, those LDI funds first sold their most liquid UK Treasury Bond to raise funds to cover the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Those who know a little about over-the-counter trading might ask, why don't these funds use these UK Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings us to another topic: the interest rate swap market has undergone a major transformation in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have moved from simple over-the-counter transactions to centrally cleared over-the-counter transactions. The clearing house is LCH, and currently only cash can be used as security.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Okay, here comes the key point: this is the most important step in the death spiral. The UK Treasury Bond rate and the UK interest rate swap rate are actually quite similar. Because the interest rate swap resulted in losses, the fund manager had to sell Treasury Bond to cover margin. The massive sell-off of Treasury Bond led to rising interest rates in Treasury Bond, while rising interest rates in Treasury Bond led to higher interest rates on interest rate swaps. These rising interest rates led fund managers to sell more Treasury Bond to replenish margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Financial markets are neither afraid of rising nor falling; when prices are low, people will naturally buy, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, pension assets totaled approximately £1.5 trillion at the end of August. In other words, the rough estimate of the margin requirements caused by the losses in the LDI strategy of the entire pension fund over the past two months is 690 billion yuan. My friend's LDI desk paid 1.2 billion yuan in back deposits in one day last Friday! Yes, a desk costs 1.2 billion a day!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>During the sell-off, Treasury Bond sold out, leaving only other assets to be sold. First and foremost, there are stocks with high liquidity. This caused stocks to fall as well, and indiscriminately. Because there are requirements for the speed at which pension funds can be replenished during this process (usually T+0), they can only be sold blindly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Stocks will fall if they fall; if they get cheap, people will naturally buy them. However, another crucial point in the whole process is that these pension funds have significantly increased their allocation to illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, over the past 10 years. These are not things you can redeem just because you want to. This creates a huge problem: liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If you can't sell it, sorry, if you can't pay the margin, those interest rate swap positions will be exploded. Investment banking desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This has led to the interest rate on interest rate swaps continuing to rise! This will further drag down other well-liquid pension funds.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the entire interest rate swap market had been paralyzed, and most market makers had already left the market. Previously, the spread between buying and selling one-year UK interest rate swaps was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but by then it had risen to 9-10 bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is to wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank took decisive action, implementing quantitative easing (QE) to curb the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral was broken. It brought many pension funds and LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not everyone saw the dawn. Several large UK asset management companies' LDI funds exploded. Just look at their stock prices... I won't reveal their names, just be polite.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst were those pensions that collapsed on the eve of dawn, and the holders who lived off them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the market rescue had been delayed by another two days, the entire pension industry would have collapsed.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this major upheaval in the LDI industry, even surviving funds will find it difficult to continue to survive, and the biggest flaw in the industry's business model has been exposed. Without leverage, the industry would not survive. It can only be said that this industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the British Treasury Bond rose by 40% in one day in 50 years! Who says Treasury Bond is rising slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA\">三思期权</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28e326edc19611f4a02f9a0ebb66bf9","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146232184","content_text":"亲历了这周的风暴，这篇小短文就以手记的形式纪念一下。这周实在累的不行了，心累之余还有点遗憾，这么大的事件，竟然没有先知先觉，也就错过了这次的黑天鹅交易。怎么比喻这周发生的事情呢？我感觉最接近2020年三月。英国利率以及英镑市场完全垮掉，英国整个养老金市场差点扑街，而养老金里的LDI行业一夜之间就垮了。要是整个养老金市场垮了，就不是3月份了，那就是08年。好在央行出来救市了。。。这两天实在太心累，不想码太多字。市场上大概发生了什么，基础知识可以看看Degg_GlobalMacroFin这篇。这篇里我就重点讲讲我的一线经历。记住这俩人，几乎凭借了一己之力把巨大的养老金市场毁灭。当然，LDI这个行业的杠杆不能怪他们。 但是没有经验的情况下推出毫无节制的减税政策，是差点让养老金市场突然死亡的导火索。最简单的解释就是， 傻X的减税政策导致利率大幅飙升。 利率大幅飙升导致不少养老金用来对冲利率以及通胀风险的LDI基金里使用的利率（Interest rate swap）短期出现巨额亏损。 巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏，导致保证金很快就用光了。从8月底到9月底， 英国30年期利率暴涨了230个基点。这个暴涨的速度对这些持有利率互换的LDI基金有多大影响？ 我们可以初略的估算一下。一个规模10亿的养老金，持有的LDI基金里利率互换的DV01 (一个基点利率变动导致利率互换产生的损益） 是大概两百万。也就是说，过去两个月，因为30年期利率变动了230个基点。利率互换产生的损失就是230* 2m = 460m。 也就是说， 过去2个月，利率互换产生的亏损是这个养老金资产的接近一半！！！这个损失，不是真的亏损。因为这些利率互换是拿来对冲养老金负债端的，利率互换亏了，负债端的价值也下降了。理论上这个是个多空对冲交易不会产生什么损失。但是，但是， 但是,在上个例子里，这么短时间里，亏损了4个亿，那些LDI基金为了交保证金，首先卖出手中流动性最好的英国国债来筹集资金补保证金。懂一点场外交易的朋友会问，为啥这些基金不拿这些英国国债当保证金？ 因为不少场外交易是可以直接用国债当保证金的。 这就要牵扯到另一个话题，就是过去10年里利率互换市场经历了一场大变革。多数利率互换已经从单纯的场外交易变成了中央清算的场外交易。清算所是LCH,现在只能用现金做保证金。那么好了，重点来了， 这也就是死亡螺旋最重要的一步。英国国债利率，和英国利率互换的利率其实是差不多的东西。 因为利率互换亏钱了，基金经理要卖国债补保证金。 大量的抛售国债，导致国债利率上升， 而国债利率上升导致利率互换的利率上升，利率互换上升导致基金经理要卖更多的国债补保证金。。。。金融市场不怕涨，不怕跌，价格低了自然有人买，但是市场最怕这种死亡螺旋。这个养老金市场有多大呢？ 根据PPF的估计，8月底，养老金资产一共大约一共1.5万亿英镑。也就是说，过去两个月，整个养老金的LDI策略亏损导致的保证金的初略估算在6900亿 。 我朋友的LDI desk在上周五一天补交的保证金就是12个亿！对， 一天，一个desk 12亿！在抛售的过程中， 国债卖完了， 只有卖其他资产。 首先就是流动性好的股票。 这就导致股票也跟着跌，而且是无差别的跌。因为这个过程中，养老金由于补保证金的速度有要求(一般是T+0），所以只能闭着眼卖。股票跌就跌了，便宜了自然有人买。 但整个环节另一个要命的点是， 这些养老金过去10年里大幅度增加配置了没有流动性的资产， 比如地产，比如私募股权基金。 这些不是你想赎回就赎回的。 这就产生了一个巨大的问题，流动性错配！卖不了，抱歉交不上保证金那些利率互换的仓位就爆了。 投行交易台就必须要在市场上卖掉这些利率互换头寸。这就导致利率互换的利率继续上升！从而再拖垮其他流动性还不错的养老金。当时整个利率互换市场市场已经瘫痪， 多数做市商已经离场。 以前一年期的英国利率互换的买卖差价也就0.1-0.2 bps,当时已经上升到9-10bps!出现了死亡螺旋之后，唯一能够做的就是等英国央行救市。 好在央行果断出手，祭出QE压住国债利率上升的势头。死亡螺旋被打破。把不少养老金以及那些LDI基金从死亡的边缘拉回来。但不是所有的人都看到了黎明。 几家大的英国资管的LDI基金就爆了。 看看他们的股价就知道。。。。 我就不公布他们的名字了，留点口德。最惨的是那些倒在黎明前夜的养老金，以及靠这些养老金生活的持有人。如果救市再晚两天，整个养老金行业就gg了。而LDI这个行业随着这次巨震，即使活下来的基金也很难继续生存下去， 这个行业的商业模式的最大缺点已经被暴露了。而如果不用杠杆， 这个行业也生存不下去。只能说这个行业在不久的将来很可能会消失。打破了死亡螺旋，50年英国国债一天就上涨了40%！ 谁说国债涨的慢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916858935,"gmtCreate":1664578154527,"gmtModify":1676537478082,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916858935","repostId":"2271377796","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916329201,"gmtCreate":1664514112903,"gmtModify":1676537469765,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916329201","repostId":"1143870144","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143870144","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664502256,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143870144?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 09:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Li Ka-shing's net worth shrank by tens of billions in one day, but he recovered a 6 billion yuan loss by \"hoarding land\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143870144","media":"野马财经","summary":"身价缩水百亿后，李嘉诚家族旗下长实集团再次依靠“囤地”获利。由于英镑和欧元大幅贬值，重仓欧洲市场的李嘉诚家族企业遭受重创。9月23日，英国政府推出50年来最大减税政策，结果导致英国遭遇股债汇“三杀”，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>After its net worth shrank by tens of billions, CK Asset Holdings, a subsidiary of the Li Ka-shing family, once again relied on \"land hoarding\" to make a profit.</b>The Li Ka-shing family business, heavily invested in the European market, has suffered a severe blow due to the sharp depreciation of the pound and euro.</p><p>On September 23, the British government introduced its largest tax cut in 50 years, resulting in a \"triple whammy\" of stocks, bonds, and currencies in the UK. The pound once fell below the 1.04 mark against the dollar, triggered a \"sell-off\" in the bond market, and the stock market plummeted.</p><p>The Bloomberg Billionaires Real-Time Index shows that<b>On September 26, Li Ka-shing had a net worth of US$26.7 billion (approximately RMB 191.241 billion), compared to US$28.1 billion (approximately RMB 201.176 billion) the previous day, which evaporated by RMB 9.935 billion in one day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ce18619140bf79d1941bdbdf4af7cb\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: CK Asset Holdings Announcement</p><p>After experiencing a significant decline in his net worth,<b>On September 28, Cheung Kong Asset Holdings (1113.HK) announced that it will sell its Hong Kong property project to Singaporean financial institution Sino-Suisse for HK$20.766 billion (approximately RMB19.05 billion), including the unsold portion of the luxury residential project at 21 Polo Road.</b></p><p>On the day of the transaction, the buyer had paid a deposit of HK$2.077 billion, and thereafter made five partial payments to the seller every six months. The first two payments were HK$1.038 billion each, and the last three payments were HK$2.077 billion each. In addition, the buyer is required to pay the balance upon completion of the transaction.</p><p>CK Asset Holdings stated that the sale of the project will enable the company to realize its investment in the relevant development project, and the buyer's loan will facilitate the completion of the transaction.<b>The company expects to gain approximately HK$6.3 billion (approximately RMB5.779 billion) from the sale.</b>The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes of the Group.</p><p><b>\"Hoarding land\" for 11 years and making a profit of 5.779 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to available information, 21 BORRETT ROAD is one of Hong Kong's well-known super luxury residential projects. This transaction includes 152 residential units, 242 residential parking spaces, and 31 motorcycle parking spaces.</p><p><b>In June 2011, Cheung Kong Asset Holdings purchased a plot of land on Polo Road for HK$11.65 billion, with a land price of HK$26,763 per square foot, setting a record for the second highest price in Hong Kong that year.</b></p><p>The land is located in a luxury residential area in the western half of Hong Kong, China, with an area of approximately 10,500 square meters and a buildable floor area of approximately 40,400 square meters. It was once described by Cheung Kong Asset Management Chairman Victor Li as a \"prime location\".</p><p>Since being acquired by Cheung Kong Asset Holdings in 2011, it took 10 years for the project to officially hit the market. Compared with the land price 10 years ago, the current average price per square meter has increased by more than 10 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2b1e5d766054061885687df7fd0028\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: WeChat Official Account, No. 21 Polo Road, Cheung</p><p><b>According to public reports, the most recent transaction at 21 Polo Road was in June of this year, with two units sold, totaling nearly HK$400 million (approximately RMB367 million).</b></p><p>Among them, a one-bedroom apartment on the 20th floor of Phase 1 of the No. 21 Bolao Road residential complex was sold for 270 million yuan, with an internal area of approximately 273.6 square meters. Based on the transaction price, its unit price reached 986,900 yuan per square meter.</p><p>Some industry insiders believe that adopting a long-term development model of \"hoarding land\" is a major characteristic of Li Ka-shing's long-term strategy, which has allowed his company to make a lot of profits using this method.</p><p>The claim that Li Ka-shing profited from hoarding land has been around for a long time. As early as 10 years ago, the Economic Observer reported that Li Ka-shing's Hutchison Whampoa was included in Shanghai's official land hoarding list.</p><p>Regarding Li Ka-shing's Changshi family's land hoarding behavior,<b>The China Times once reported that over the years, the CK Hutchison Holdings Group has extended the land development cycle from 6 to more than 10 years in more than ten projects in nearly ten cities across the country through a \"snail-style\" development approach.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce126a777041428467fdc98a4c7691ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with external doubts,<b>Cheung Kong Asset Holdings has publicly responded that its domestic real estate projects have always been carried out in accordance with regulations and all government procedures, resulting in slow development and some misunderstandings, and that selling projects is a normal business practice for real estate developers.</b></p><p>Now, Li Ka-shing has once again achieved a profit of HK$6.3 billion from \"land hoarding\". Industry insiders believe that CK Asset Management's decision to sell all the units on Polo Road yet to be launched to a single buyer within a few days could efficiently lock in substantial profits.</p><p>The buyer in this transaction is Huarui Capital, which was founded in Singapore in 2017 and also obtained a capital markets services license issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>For buyers, purchasing a prime luxury property located in one of the most prized areas in Hong Kong, China, is difficult to find in the current market, offering a high return on investment. The project's appreciation potential should be very satisfactory once Hong Kong fully opens up.</p><p><b>Li Ka-shing's buying and selling</b></p><p>Starting in 2013, Li Ka-shing, who is known in the industry for his skill in \"hoarding land,\" began to move assets and frequently made profits by selling asset projects.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, including transactions such as the sale of shares in Central Centre and Watsons, Li Ka-shing has sold at least 250 billion yuan in assets.</p><p>While selling, Li Ka-shing never stopped making new investments.<b>In 2021, CK Asset Holdings spent HK$17.38 billion to purchase four plots of land in Hong Kong through various channels, increasing the floor area available for development by approximately 154,600 square meters.</b></p><p>In May of this year, Li Ka-shing appeared in the mainland land land auction market again after ten years since 2012. In the bidding for the Baiyun Airport Avenue plot in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, Li Ka-shing's Hutchison Whampoa also participated in the bidding, but ultimately did not win.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5cfa9374570c5bca3cb35fc02610b27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to a previously released list, CK Asset Holdings still holds properties in mainland China with a market value of RMB 126.16 billion, distributed in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Dalian and other places, of which the market value of properties available for development is RMB 31.573 billion.</p><p><b>In fact, since 2020, CK Asset Holdings has sold overseas businesses and assets multiple times, involving sectors such as energy, communications, real estate, power, and aircraft leasing, including Husky Energy, which Li Ka-shing called \"one of the most successful investments of his life\".</b></p><p>In March 2022, CK Asset Holdings announced the sale of its London office building for £729 million (approximately RMB 6 billion). Cheung Kong Asset Management expects to receive approximately £108 million (approximately RMB 896 million) from the sale.</p><p>In addition, in July of this year, CK Asset Holdings came close to completing a £15 billion (approximately RMB 116.813 billion) sale of British Power, but the entire sale plan ultimately fell through due to a last-minute price increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8746e7839869ecee34dfb2878cef5ca3\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: CK Asset Holdings Financial</p><p>The reason for this operation can be gleaned from an analysis of its annual report data. According to the annual report, in 2021, Cheung Kong Asset Holdings' total revenue was HK$62.094 billion, of which property revenue was the main revenue, with property sales reaching HK$37.76 billion and property leasing reaching HK$6.543 billion. It also included hotel and serviced suites business of HK$2.691 billion, property and project management business of HK$816 million, and English pub business of HK$14.284 billion.</p><p>Both Hong Kong and Mainland China accounted for a significant proportion of both property sales and property leasing.<b>In the property sales business, Hong Kong property sales amounted to HK$15.724 billion, mainland property sales amounted to HK$21.722 billion, and overseas property sales amounted to HK$352 million. In terms of property leasing, Hong Kong accounted for HK$4.352 billion, Mainland China for HK$571 million, and overseas for HK$738 million.</b></p><p>As Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing's business activities have always attracted much attention from the market. Since the beginning of this year, Li Ka-shing has been making frequent moves, with some voices pointing out that \"Li Ka-shing is fleeing the UK\" and \"Li Ka-shing is back.\"</p><p>Li Zeju responded that selling properties is a daily business and core business, and there is no withdrawal of investment. He said that the mainland and Hong Kong are the group's hometowns, and there are emotional factors involved, but they will still pay attention to the return on investment.</p><p><b>Is there still a chance to \"find a bargain\" at Evergrande Center?</b></p><p>The biggest secret to being able to \"hoard land\" and make a profit is to buy at the bottom and \"find bargains\". In July of this year, Li Ka-shing attempted to buy the China Evergrande Center at a bargain price.</p><p><b>On July 28, China Evergrande (3333.HK) sold the China Evergrande Center for the second time through bidding, with the price reduced from HK$10.5 billion to HK$9 billion.</b></p><p>Prior to this, in August 2021, there were rumors in the market that Evergrande had offered HK$15.6 billion to seek a buyer for the Evergrande Centre in Hong Kong. After contacting Yuexiu Property, the price was reduced to HK$10.5 billion, but the transaction ultimately did not go through.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b27d545b805efd24953789514ada0df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Canned Food Gallery</p><p>Located in the heart of bustling Wan Chai, Hong Kong, China, China Evergrande Center is a 26-story Grade A office building with a total construction area of approximately 32,100 square meters. Its predecessor was the Martin Building in the United States.</p><p>In 2015, China Evergrande acquired it from Chinese Estate (0127.HK) for HK$12.5 billion, setting a record for the highest sale of a commercial building in Hong Kong.</p><p>In late July 2022, Li Ka-shing's CK Asset Holdings submitted a bid for the after-sales service at the China Evergrande Center, at which time the property was valued at approximately HK$9 billion. Industry insiders believe that Cheung Kong Asset Management is aiming to buy at the bottom and \"find a bargain\".</p><p><b>However, on September 13, according to publicly available documents in Hong Kong, the China Evergrande Center was recently taken over by a receiver appointed by CITIC Bank International, a subsidiary of creditor CITIC Bank.</b></p><p>According to media reports citing industry insiders, China Evergrande has defaulted on its contracts and failed to repay on time. It has also attempted to sell the building's assets twice, but no one has taken them over. Therefore, the lender ultimately decided to take over the asset.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24cfd494a3a164f571329d27478f9c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the eve of National Day, market sources indicated that the China Evergrande Center building was being sold exclusively by Savills, with the bidding deadline set for October 31, 2022.</p><p><b>According to market estimates, the property is currently valued at over HK$8 billion, a discount of about 40% compared to Evergrande's HK$12.5 billion purchase price. The property has attracted inquiries and visits from local Hong Kong developers, funds and mainland buyers.</b></p><p>Savills stated that, referring to the Murray Road project that Henderson Land Development won in 2017, the price per square foot was approximately HK$50,000, with a total price of approximately HK$32.38 billion. Another Central Waterfront No. 3 site, which was acquired in 2021, was sold for approximately HK$31,000 per square foot, for a total price of HK$50.8 billion.</p><p>From two failed sales to now being put up for sale again, the Evergrande Center has long since transformed from a commercial landmark that Evergrande Group was once proud of into a bargaining chip.<b>Today, Li Ka-shing, who is adept at \"hoarding land\" for profit, still has the opportunity to buy at the bottom.</b></p><p>In response, former real estate tycoon Feng Lun said: Although Li Ka-shing has done a lot of solid real estate projects in mainland China and Hong Kong, they are mostly ordinary residential projects. Unlike Vanke, he does not want to completely develop this industry, so he does not receive many particularly good reviews.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589532854679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Ka-shing's net worth shrank by tens of billions in one day, but he recovered a 6 billion yuan loss by \"hoarding land\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Ka-shing's net worth shrank by tens of billions in one day, but he recovered a 6 billion yuan loss by \"hoarding land\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">野马财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>After its net worth shrank by tens of billions, CK Asset Holdings, a subsidiary of the Li Ka-shing family, once again relied on \"land hoarding\" to make a profit.</b>The Li Ka-shing family business, heavily invested in the European market, has suffered a severe blow due to the sharp depreciation of the pound and euro.</p><p>On September 23, the British government introduced its largest tax cut in 50 years, resulting in a \"triple whammy\" of stocks, bonds, and currencies in the UK. The pound once fell below the 1.04 mark against the dollar, triggered a \"sell-off\" in the bond market, and the stock market plummeted.</p><p>The Bloomberg Billionaires Real-Time Index shows that<b>On September 26, Li Ka-shing had a net worth of US$26.7 billion (approximately RMB 191.241 billion), compared to US$28.1 billion (approximately RMB 201.176 billion) the previous day, which evaporated by RMB 9.935 billion in one day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ce18619140bf79d1941bdbdf4af7cb\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: CK Asset Holdings Announcement</p><p>After experiencing a significant decline in his net worth,<b>On September 28, Cheung Kong Asset Holdings (1113.HK) announced that it will sell its Hong Kong property project to Singaporean financial institution Sino-Suisse for HK$20.766 billion (approximately RMB19.05 billion), including the unsold portion of the luxury residential project at 21 Polo Road.</b></p><p>On the day of the transaction, the buyer had paid a deposit of HK$2.077 billion, and thereafter made five partial payments to the seller every six months. The first two payments were HK$1.038 billion each, and the last three payments were HK$2.077 billion each. In addition, the buyer is required to pay the balance upon completion of the transaction.</p><p>CK Asset Holdings stated that the sale of the project will enable the company to realize its investment in the relevant development project, and the buyer's loan will facilitate the completion of the transaction.<b>The company expects to gain approximately HK$6.3 billion (approximately RMB5.779 billion) from the sale.</b>The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes of the Group.</p><p><b>\"Hoarding land\" for 11 years and making a profit of 5.779 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to available information, 21 BORRETT ROAD is one of Hong Kong's well-known super luxury residential projects. This transaction includes 152 residential units, 242 residential parking spaces, and 31 motorcycle parking spaces.</p><p><b>In June 2011, Cheung Kong Asset Holdings purchased a plot of land on Polo Road for HK$11.65 billion, with a land price of HK$26,763 per square foot, setting a record for the second highest price in Hong Kong that year.</b></p><p>The land is located in a luxury residential area in the western half of Hong Kong, China, with an area of approximately 10,500 square meters and a buildable floor area of approximately 40,400 square meters. It was once described by Cheung Kong Asset Management Chairman Victor Li as a \"prime location\".</p><p>Since being acquired by Cheung Kong Asset Holdings in 2011, it took 10 years for the project to officially hit the market. Compared with the land price 10 years ago, the current average price per square meter has increased by more than 10 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2b1e5d766054061885687df7fd0028\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: WeChat Official Account, No. 21 Polo Road, Cheung</p><p><b>According to public reports, the most recent transaction at 21 Polo Road was in June of this year, with two units sold, totaling nearly HK$400 million (approximately RMB367 million).</b></p><p>Among them, a one-bedroom apartment on the 20th floor of Phase 1 of the No. 21 Bolao Road residential complex was sold for 270 million yuan, with an internal area of approximately 273.6 square meters. Based on the transaction price, its unit price reached 986,900 yuan per square meter.</p><p>Some industry insiders believe that adopting a long-term development model of \"hoarding land\" is a major characteristic of Li Ka-shing's long-term strategy, which has allowed his company to make a lot of profits using this method.</p><p>The claim that Li Ka-shing profited from hoarding land has been around for a long time. As early as 10 years ago, the Economic Observer reported that Li Ka-shing's Hutchison Whampoa was included in Shanghai's official land hoarding list.</p><p>Regarding Li Ka-shing's Changshi family's land hoarding behavior,<b>The China Times once reported that over the years, the CK Hutchison Holdings Group has extended the land development cycle from 6 to more than 10 years in more than ten projects in nearly ten cities across the country through a \"snail-style\" development approach.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce126a777041428467fdc98a4c7691ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with external doubts,<b>Cheung Kong Asset Holdings has publicly responded that its domestic real estate projects have always been carried out in accordance with regulations and all government procedures, resulting in slow development and some misunderstandings, and that selling projects is a normal business practice for real estate developers.</b></p><p>Now, Li Ka-shing has once again achieved a profit of HK$6.3 billion from \"land hoarding\". Industry insiders believe that CK Asset Management's decision to sell all the units on Polo Road yet to be launched to a single buyer within a few days could efficiently lock in substantial profits.</p><p>The buyer in this transaction is Huarui Capital, which was founded in Singapore in 2017 and also obtained a capital markets services license issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>For buyers, purchasing a prime luxury property located in one of the most prized areas in Hong Kong, China, is difficult to find in the current market, offering a high return on investment. The project's appreciation potential should be very satisfactory once Hong Kong fully opens up.</p><p><b>Li Ka-shing's buying and selling</b></p><p>Starting in 2013, Li Ka-shing, who is known in the industry for his skill in \"hoarding land,\" began to move assets and frequently made profits by selling asset projects.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, including transactions such as the sale of shares in Central Centre and Watsons, Li Ka-shing has sold at least 250 billion yuan in assets.</p><p>While selling, Li Ka-shing never stopped making new investments.<b>In 2021, CK Asset Holdings spent HK$17.38 billion to purchase four plots of land in Hong Kong through various channels, increasing the floor area available for development by approximately 154,600 square meters.</b></p><p>In May of this year, Li Ka-shing appeared in the mainland land land auction market again after ten years since 2012. In the bidding for the Baiyun Airport Avenue plot in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, Li Ka-shing's Hutchison Whampoa also participated in the bidding, but ultimately did not win.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5cfa9374570c5bca3cb35fc02610b27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to a previously released list, CK Asset Holdings still holds properties in mainland China with a market value of RMB 126.16 billion, distributed in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Dalian and other places, of which the market value of properties available for development is RMB 31.573 billion.</p><p><b>In fact, since 2020, CK Asset Holdings has sold overseas businesses and assets multiple times, involving sectors such as energy, communications, real estate, power, and aircraft leasing, including Husky Energy, which Li Ka-shing called \"one of the most successful investments of his life\".</b></p><p>In March 2022, CK Asset Holdings announced the sale of its London office building for £729 million (approximately RMB 6 billion). Cheung Kong Asset Management expects to receive approximately £108 million (approximately RMB 896 million) from the sale.</p><p>In addition, in July of this year, CK Asset Holdings came close to completing a £15 billion (approximately RMB 116.813 billion) sale of British Power, but the entire sale plan ultimately fell through due to a last-minute price increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8746e7839869ecee34dfb2878cef5ca3\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: CK Asset Holdings Financial</p><p>The reason for this operation can be gleaned from an analysis of its annual report data. According to the annual report, in 2021, Cheung Kong Asset Holdings' total revenue was HK$62.094 billion, of which property revenue was the main revenue, with property sales reaching HK$37.76 billion and property leasing reaching HK$6.543 billion. It also included hotel and serviced suites business of HK$2.691 billion, property and project management business of HK$816 million, and English pub business of HK$14.284 billion.</p><p>Both Hong Kong and Mainland China accounted for a significant proportion of both property sales and property leasing.<b>In the property sales business, Hong Kong property sales amounted to HK$15.724 billion, mainland property sales amounted to HK$21.722 billion, and overseas property sales amounted to HK$352 million. In terms of property leasing, Hong Kong accounted for HK$4.352 billion, Mainland China for HK$571 million, and overseas for HK$738 million.</b></p><p>As Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing's business activities have always attracted much attention from the market. Since the beginning of this year, Li Ka-shing has been making frequent moves, with some voices pointing out that \"Li Ka-shing is fleeing the UK\" and \"Li Ka-shing is back.\"</p><p>Li Zeju responded that selling properties is a daily business and core business, and there is no withdrawal of investment. He said that the mainland and Hong Kong are the group's hometowns, and there are emotional factors involved, but they will still pay attention to the return on investment.</p><p><b>Is there still a chance to \"find a bargain\" at Evergrande Center?</b></p><p>The biggest secret to being able to \"hoard land\" and make a profit is to buy at the bottom and \"find bargains\". In July of this year, Li Ka-shing attempted to buy the China Evergrande Center at a bargain price.</p><p><b>On July 28, China Evergrande (3333.HK) sold the China Evergrande Center for the second time through bidding, with the price reduced from HK$10.5 billion to HK$9 billion.</b></p><p>Prior to this, in August 2021, there were rumors in the market that Evergrande had offered HK$15.6 billion to seek a buyer for the Evergrande Centre in Hong Kong. After contacting Yuexiu Property, the price was reduced to HK$10.5 billion, but the transaction ultimately did not go through.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b27d545b805efd24953789514ada0df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Canned Food Gallery</p><p>Located in the heart of bustling Wan Chai, Hong Kong, China, China Evergrande Center is a 26-story Grade A office building with a total construction area of approximately 32,100 square meters. Its predecessor was the Martin Building in the United States.</p><p>In 2015, China Evergrande acquired it from Chinese Estate (0127.HK) for HK$12.5 billion, setting a record for the highest sale of a commercial building in Hong Kong.</p><p>In late July 2022, Li Ka-shing's CK Asset Holdings submitted a bid for the after-sales service at the China Evergrande Center, at which time the property was valued at approximately HK$9 billion. Industry insiders believe that Cheung Kong Asset Management is aiming to buy at the bottom and \"find a bargain\".</p><p><b>However, on September 13, according to publicly available documents in Hong Kong, the China Evergrande Center was recently taken over by a receiver appointed by CITIC Bank International, a subsidiary of creditor CITIC Bank.</b></p><p>According to media reports citing industry insiders, China Evergrande has defaulted on its contracts and failed to repay on time. It has also attempted to sell the building's assets twice, but no one has taken them over. Therefore, the lender ultimately decided to take over the asset.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24cfd494a3a164f571329d27478f9c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the eve of National Day, market sources indicated that the China Evergrande Center building was being sold exclusively by Savills, with the bidding deadline set for October 31, 2022.</p><p><b>According to market estimates, the property is currently valued at over HK$8 billion, a discount of about 40% compared to Evergrande's HK$12.5 billion purchase price. The property has attracted inquiries and visits from local Hong Kong developers, funds and mainland buyers.</b></p><p>Savills stated that, referring to the Murray Road project that Henderson Land Development won in 2017, the price per square foot was approximately HK$50,000, with a total price of approximately HK$32.38 billion. Another Central Waterfront No. 3 site, which was acquired in 2021, was sold for approximately HK$31,000 per square foot, for a total price of HK$50.8 billion.</p><p>From two failed sales to now being put up for sale again, the Evergrande Center has long since transformed from a commercial landmark that Evergrande Group was once proud of into a bargaining chip.<b>Today, Li Ka-shing, who is adept at \"hoarding land\" for profit, still has the opportunity to buy at the bottom.</b></p><p>In response, former real estate tycoon Feng Lun said: Although Li Ka-shing has done a lot of solid real estate projects in mainland China and Hong Kong, they are mostly ordinary residential projects. Unlike Vanke, he does not want to completely develop this industry, so he does not receive many particularly good reviews.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HN5vojZb8w407R_TggMm0A\">野马财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008f7af8c99c674df2ab1df3744f67dd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HN5vojZb8w407R_TggMm0A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143870144","content_text":"身价缩水百亿后，李嘉诚家族旗下长实集团再次依靠“囤地”获利。由于英镑和欧元大幅贬值，重仓欧洲市场的李嘉诚家族企业遭受重创。9月23日，英国政府推出50年来最大减税政策，结果导致英国遭遇股债汇“三杀”，英镑兑美元一度走下1.04关口，债市场出现“抛售潮”，股市大跌。彭博亿万富翁实时指数显示，9月26日，李嘉诚拥有267亿美元（约1912.41亿元）身家，而前一天李嘉诚身家为281亿美元（约2011.76 亿元），一天之内蒸发99.35亿元。来源：长实集团公告在经历身价大幅缩水后，9月28日，长实集团(1113.HK)公告称，将以207.66亿港元（约190.5亿元）向新加坡金融机构Sino-Suisse出售中国香港物业项目，其中包含波老道21号豪宅项目未售出部分。在交易当天，买方已经支付20.77亿港元订金，之后每6个月向卖方支付共5笔部分付款，前两笔均每笔为10.38亿港元，后三笔每笔为20.77亿港元。另外，买方须于交易完成时支付余额。长实集团表示，出售项目令公司得以变现有关发展项目投资，买方贷款将有助交易完成，公司预期出售所得收益约为63亿港元（约57.79亿元），所得款项净额将用作集团一般营运资金用途。“囤地”11年，获利57.79亿元资料显示，波老道21号（21 BORRETT ROAD）是中国香港知名的超级豪宅项目之一，本次交易包括152个住宅单位、242个住宅停车位及31个电单车停车位。2011年6月，长实集团以116.5亿港元购入波老道地皮，每尺楼面地价为26763港元，创下当年中国香港第二高价纪录。该地皮位于中国香港西半山豪宅地段，面积约1.05万平方米，可建楼面面积约4.04万平方米，曾被长实集团主席李泽钜称为\"一级靓地\"。自从2011年被长实集团买下，该项目经历10年才正式以现楼面市，和10年前地价相比，目前楼面均价上涨超过10倍。来源：长实波老道21號公众号在公开报道中，波老道21号最近一次成交是今年6月份，成交2套，合计近4亿港元（约3.67亿元）。其中，成交的一套波老道21号小区第1期20楼1室，作价2.7亿元，套内面积约273.6平方米，按成交价计算，其单价达98.69万元/平方米。有业内人士认为，采用“囤地”式的漫长开发模式是李嘉诚长实系的一大特点，这也让其公司运用这种方式获利不少。谈论李嘉诚囤地获利，此种说法存续已久。早在10年前，《经济观察网》曾报道李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔被列入了上海官方囤地名单中。对于李嘉诚长实系的囤地行为，《华夏时报》曾报道称，多年来“长和系”在全国近十个城市十余个项目，均通过“蜗牛式”开发方式，延长土地开发周期从6年到10多年不等。面对外界质疑，长实集团曾公开回应表示，长实国内的地产项目一直根据法规及所有政府程序进行，开发缓慢，实有所误解，而出售项目也属于地产商正常商业行为。如今，李嘉诚再次实现“囤地”获利63亿港元。在业内人士看来，长实几天向单一买家全数出售波老道尚待推出之单位，能有效率地锁定可观利润。而本次交易的买家为华瑞资本，于2017年在新加坡创立，并同时取得新加坡金融管理局所颁发的资本市场服务执照。对买家而言，买入座落于中国香港最珍罕地段的顶级豪宅，环顾现今市场亦难有可媲美的优质物业，具高投资值回报率，当香港全面开关后，项目之升值潜力应甚理想。李嘉诚的买与卖从2013年开始，被业界冠以擅长“囤地”的李嘉诚开启资产腾挪，并通过出售资产项目频频获利。据不完全统计，包括出售香港中环中心、屈臣氏股权等交易在内，李嘉诚卖掉的资产规模金额至少已经超过2500亿元。在出售的同时，李嘉诚始终没有停止新的投资。2021年，长实集团通过不同渠道斥资173.8亿港元在中国香港买入4幅土地，增加了约15.46万平方米楼面面积可供开发。今年5月，李嘉诚更是自2012年后时隔十年再次出现在内地土拍市场。在广州白云区的白云空港大道地块的竞拍中，李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔也参与了竞标，但最终并没有竞得。据早前公布的一份清单，长实集团在中国内地仍持有的物业市值达1261.6亿元，分布在北京、广州、上海、长沙、南京、成都、大连等地，其中可供发展的物业市值为315.73亿元。实际上，2020年以来，长实集团先后多次出售海外业务及资产，涉及能源、通讯、房地产、电力、飞机租赁等板块，其中包括被李嘉诚称为“一生最成功的投资之一”的赫斯基能源。2022年3月，长实集团宣布以7.29亿英镑(约60亿元)出售持有的英国伦敦办公楼。长实从该出售事项获得的预期收益约为1.08亿英镑(约8.96亿元)。除此之外，今年7月，长实集团曾接近完成150亿英镑（约1168.13亿元）出售英国电力公司的交易，但由于最后时刻提价，整个出售计划最终告吹。来源：长实集团财报之所以如此操作，分析其年报数据便可窥知一二。年报显示，2021年，长实集团总收入为620.94亿港元，其中物业方面为主要营收，物业销售达到377.6亿港元，物业租赁为65.43亿港元，还包括酒店及服务套房业务为26.91亿港元，物业及项目管理为8.16亿港元，英式酒馆业务为142.84亿港元。不论物业销售还是物业租赁，中国香港及内地均所占比重较大。物业销售业务中，中国香港物业销售额为157.24亿港元，内地物业销售金额为217.22亿港元，海外物业销售金额为3.52亿港元。物业租赁方面，中国香港为43.52亿港元，内地为5.71亿港元，海外为7.38亿港元。作为中国香港首富，李嘉诚的商业动作一直备受市场关注。今年以来，李嘉诚动作频频，有声音指出“李嘉诚要逃离英国”“李嘉诚回来了”。李泽钜则回应称，卖楼是日常业务和本业，并不存在撤资。他说，内地及香港是集团的家乡，存在感情因素，但仍会关注投资回报。“捡漏”恒大中心仍有机会？之所以能够“囤地”盈利，最大的诀窍就是抄底“捡漏”。今年7月份，李嘉诚曾试图抄底中国恒大中心。7月28日，中国恒大（3333.HK）第二次以竞标形式将中国恒大中心出售，价格由105亿港元降至90亿港元。在此之前，2021年8月，市场曾传出恒大开价156亿港元寻求香港恒大中心接盘方，随后与越秀地产接洽后，价格降至105亿港元，但交易最终并未成行。来源：罐头图库中国恒大中心位于中国香港湾仔闹市中央，是一栋26层高，总建筑面积约3.21万平方米的甲级写字楼，其前身为美国万通大厦。2015年，中国恒大斥资125亿港元从华人置业（0127.HK）手中将其购得，并创下了中国香港商厦买卖的最高纪录。2022年7月底，在中国恒大中心再放售后，李嘉诚旗下长实集团递交了投标书，当时该物业估值约90亿港元。在业界看来，长实集团意在抄底“捡漏”。然而，9月13日，据中国香港公开文件披露，中国恒大中心已于近日被债权人中信银行旗下中信银行国际委任接管人接管。据媒体援引业内人士分析称，中国恒大已经拖欠违约，未按时偿还款项，并且两度尝试出售大厦资产，但始终无人接盘，因此最终贷款方决定接管这一资产。在国庆前夕，有市场消息称，中国恒大中心大楼正由第一太平戴维斯独家代理出售，截标日期为2022年10月31日。据市场估算，目前该物业的估值在80亿港元以上，较恒大125亿港元的购入折价约40%。该物业已吸引了香港本地发展商、基金及内地买家询问和参观。第一太平戴维斯则表示，参照恒基兆业地产于2017年投得的美利道项目，呎价约5万港元，总价约323.8亿港元；另一个于2021年投得的中环海滨3号用地，则以呎价约3.1万港元，总价508亿港元成交。从两次出售失败到如今再次放售，恒大中心早已从原先恒大集团为之骄傲的商业地标变为置换筹码。如今，善于“囤地”获利的李嘉诚，依然有抄底的机会。对此，昔日地产大佬冯仑表示：在内地和中国香港，虽然李嘉诚也扎扎实实地做了不少房地产项目，但基本上都是普通的住宅，他不像万科那样要把这个行业彻底做好，所以他收到口碑特别好的并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916034129,"gmtCreate":1664484455761,"gmtModify":1676537462006,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[害羞]&nbsp;","listText":"[害羞]&nbsp;","text":"[害羞]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916034129","repostId":"1136112284","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136112284","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664420902,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136112284?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Large Options Orders | Breaking News: Apple Options Trading Volume Surges! Alibaba accounted for over 80% of Put transactions.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136112284","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一、市场概览 （28/09）美东时间周三，在英国央行紧急干预市场后，市场情绪明显好转，美股大幅上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.88%，报29,683.74点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报3,719.","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>I. Market Overview (28/09)</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, market sentiment improved significantly after the Bank of England's emergency intervention, and U.S. stocks rose sharply. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.88% at 29,683.74 points. The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 3,719.04 points; The Nasdaq rose 2.05% to 11,051.64 points.</p><p>The total trading volume in the options market reached 40,683,443 contracts, higher than the 90-day average, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p>The S&P 500 ETF-SPY options traded 9.837 million contracts, an increase from the previous trading day, of which put options accounted for 59.4%.</p><p><b>II. Top 10 Options Trading Volume</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de4ebb143b5ed75172f05cc806cf8f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2134\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 1.27% at $149.84 on Wednesday. In terms of news, Apple is preparing to abandon its internally planned production increase of up to 6 million units after learning that demand for the iPhone 14 has fallen short of expectations. On Wednesday, 2.353 million options contracts were traded, compared to 1.284 million the previous trading day, an increase of over 83% compared to the previous trading day. Put options accounted for 54% of all options trading; Among them, the $150 strike price call option expiring on September 30, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 159,375 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5e7bdbfb7eb7f96932d7ab239d5043\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related Information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117618958\" target=\"_blank\"><b>What do Wall Street analysts think about Apple halting iPhone production?</b></a></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts released a research report pointing out that it is still in the early stages of the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will be crucial in determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle. At that time, the supply chain will be subject to feedback from the additional demand for iPhones in the early stages of release, and the iPhone production schedule will be readjusted accordingly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It closed up 4.01% at $80.99 on Wednesday. According to CICC's latest commentary, Alibaba's cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts are sustainable in Q3 2022, and its overall profit performance may exceed market expectations. On Wednesday, 614,300 options contracts were traded, of which put options accounted for 81.5% of all options trading; Among them, the $180 strike price put option expiring on January 20, 2023, saw particularly high trading volume, with 65,960 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb9998732216cada1ff2c361bad136d\" tg-width=\"1872\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270f54105b7b5a2daa8ba5705efafe42\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related Information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1182486151\" target=\"_blank\"><b>CICC: Alibaba's revenue may be under pressure in QFY23, but cost reduction and efficiency improvement are sustainable.</b></a></p><p>The company predicts that revenue in QFY23 will be slightly lower than market expectations, and non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company will exceed market expectations. We expect Alibaba Group's revenue to increase by 3% year-on-year to RMB207.3 billion in 2QFY23, which is 3% lower than market expectations, mainly due to the impact or pressure on Chinese businesses due to the pandemic and macroeconomic uncertainties. We expect adjusted EBITA to increase by 6% year-on-year to RMB 29.8 billion, mainly due to better-than-expected cost reductions and efficiency improvements.<b>III. Abnormal Movement</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13c3cc89f7124e0b39dca5f2e9ab1da\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It closed up 9.29% at $245.2 on Wednesday. Atlantic Securities upgraded the company's rating from \"neutral\" to \"overweight\" and raised its price target from $211 to $283. Trading volume for call options expiring on September 30, 2022 with a strike price of $250 was particularly high, with 16,032 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3ea64e43ae75edcf71e7d99c54c448\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a>It closed up 39.85% at $276.61 on Wednesday. In terms of news, the new Alzheimer's disease drug jointly developed with Eisai has made positive progress. The call option with a strike price of $300 expiring on September 30, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 8,430 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361c9cc79e3da5413ba27ff15d5cb046\" tg-width=\"1577\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Large Options Orders | Breaking News: Apple Options Trading Volume Surges! Alibaba accounted for over 80% of Put transactions.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLarge Options Orders | Breaking News: Apple Options Trading Volume Surges! Alibaba accounted for over 80% of Put transactions.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-29 11:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>I. Market Overview (28/09)</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, market sentiment improved significantly after the Bank of England's emergency intervention, and U.S. stocks rose sharply. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.88% at 29,683.74 points. The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 3,719.04 points; The Nasdaq rose 2.05% to 11,051.64 points.</p><p>The total trading volume in the options market reached 40,683,443 contracts, higher than the 90-day average, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p>The S&P 500 ETF-SPY options traded 9.837 million contracts, an increase from the previous trading day, of which put options accounted for 59.4%.</p><p><b>II. Top 10 Options Trading Volume</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de4ebb143b5ed75172f05cc806cf8f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2134\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 1.27% at $149.84 on Wednesday. In terms of news, Apple is preparing to abandon its internally planned production increase of up to 6 million units after learning that demand for the iPhone 14 has fallen short of expectations. On Wednesday, 2.353 million options contracts were traded, compared to 1.284 million the previous trading day, an increase of over 83% compared to the previous trading day. Put options accounted for 54% of all options trading; Among them, the $150 strike price call option expiring on September 30, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 159,375 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5e7bdbfb7eb7f96932d7ab239d5043\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related Information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117618958\" target=\"_blank\"><b>What do Wall Street analysts think about Apple halting iPhone production?</b></a></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts released a research report pointing out that it is still in the early stages of the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will be crucial in determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle. At that time, the supply chain will be subject to feedback from the additional demand for iPhones in the early stages of release, and the iPhone production schedule will be readjusted accordingly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It closed up 4.01% at $80.99 on Wednesday. According to CICC's latest commentary, Alibaba's cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts are sustainable in Q3 2022, and its overall profit performance may exceed market expectations. On Wednesday, 614,300 options contracts were traded, of which put options accounted for 81.5% of all options trading; Among them, the $180 strike price put option expiring on January 20, 2023, saw particularly high trading volume, with 65,960 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb9998732216cada1ff2c361bad136d\" tg-width=\"1872\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270f54105b7b5a2daa8ba5705efafe42\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related Information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1182486151\" target=\"_blank\"><b>CICC: Alibaba's revenue may be under pressure in QFY23, but cost reduction and efficiency improvement are sustainable.</b></a></p><p>The company predicts that revenue in QFY23 will be slightly lower than market expectations, and non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company will exceed market expectations. We expect Alibaba Group's revenue to increase by 3% year-on-year to RMB207.3 billion in 2QFY23, which is 3% lower than market expectations, mainly due to the impact or pressure on Chinese businesses due to the pandemic and macroeconomic uncertainties. We expect adjusted EBITA to increase by 6% year-on-year to RMB 29.8 billion, mainly due to better-than-expected cost reductions and efficiency improvements.<b>III. Abnormal Movement</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13c3cc89f7124e0b39dca5f2e9ab1da\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It closed up 9.29% at $245.2 on Wednesday. Atlantic Securities upgraded the company's rating from \"neutral\" to \"overweight\" and raised its price target from $211 to $283. Trading volume for call options expiring on September 30, 2022 with a strike price of $250 was particularly high, with 16,032 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3ea64e43ae75edcf71e7d99c54c448\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a>It closed up 39.85% at $276.61 on Wednesday. In terms of news, the new Alzheimer's disease drug jointly developed with Eisai has made positive progress. The call option with a strike price of $300 expiring on September 30, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 8,430 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361c9cc79e3da5413ba27ff15d5cb046\" tg-width=\"1577\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","NFLX":"奈飞","AAPL":"苹果","BIIB":"渤健公司","BABA":"阿里巴巴","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136112284","content_text":"一、市场概览 （28/09）美东时间周三，在英国央行紧急干预市场后，市场情绪明显好转，美股大幅上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.88%，报29,683.74点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报3,719.04点；纳斯达克指数涨2.05%，报11,051.64点。期权市场总成交量达40,683,443张合约，高于90日平均成交量，其中，看跌期权占比53%。标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交983.7万张合约，较前一交易日有所上涨，其中，看跌期权占比59.4%。二、期权成交总量TOP10苹果周三收跌1.27%，报149.84美元。消息面，苹果公司在得知iPhone 14的需求未能达到预期后，准备放弃内部拟定的高达600万部的增产计划。周三期权合约成交235.3万张，前一交易日为128.4万张，环比上涨逾83%；其中看跌期权占全部期权交易的54%；其中2022年9月30日到期的150美元行使价看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为159,375张。相关资讯：苹果停止增产iPhone，华尔街分析师怎么看？摩根士丹利分析师发布研报指出，目前仍处于iPhone14周期的早期阶段，未来3-5周仍将是决定iPhone 14周期强弱的关键，届时供应链将受到发布初期iPhone额外需求的反馈，iPhone生产安排也将相应地重新调整。阿里巴巴周三收涨4.01%，报80.99美元。中金最新点评称，22Q3，阿里巴巴降本增效有可持续性，利润端整体表现或超市场预期。周三期权合约成交61.43万张，其中看跌期权占全部期权交易的81.5%；其中2023年1月20日到期的180美元行使价看跌期权的成交量特别高，成交量为65,960张。相关资讯：中金：阿里2QFY23收入或承压，降本增效有可持续性预测2QFY23收入略低于市场预期，non-GAAP归母净利润超市场预期；我们预计阿里巴巴集团2QFY23收入同比增长3%至2,073亿元人民币，低于市场预期3%，主要由于中国商业受疫情和宏观不确定影响或承压；我们预计调整EBITA将同比上升6%至298亿元，主要由于降本增效超预期。三、异动观察奈飞周三收涨9.29%，报245.2美元。大西洋证券将该公司评级从“中性”上调至“增持”，并将目标价从211美元上调至283美元。2022年9月30日到期行权价为250美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为16,032张。百健周三收涨39.85%，报276.61美元。消息面，与卫材共同研发的阿尔茨海默病新药取得积极进展。2022年9月30日到期行权价为300美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为8,430张。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"BIIB":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918717777,"gmtCreate":1664456214300,"gmtModify":1676537458597,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe52d0ffe9f801f214b039a81b443127","width":"1125","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918717777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918442198,"gmtCreate":1664441581515,"gmtModify":1676537456116,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918442198","repostId":"1191634483","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191634483","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664439517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191634483?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 16:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Unusual Movement | Futures indices both fell, and Chinese concept stocks performed sluggishly in pre-market trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191634483","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股三大指数期货在盘前时段均跌超1%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Thursday, September 29, the UK unexpectedly intervened to rescue the market, triggering a collective rebound in European and American stock and bond markets. Today, global markets have returned to turmoil. Futures for all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1% in pre-market trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21338872e0982368b9d049f87709a866\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>The stock fell 20% in pre-market trading after Missfresh and its two companies were ordered to pay 1.3 million yuan. The Zhejiang company was deregistered due to a resolution to dissolve it.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks generally fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>,JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell by more than 3%, and Baidu fell by more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d290ae502a32330bffc77feb4068c9e\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 1.35% after reports of sluggish demand for the iPhone 14 led Apple to abandon production increases. Supply chain representatives stated that the total order volume has not been</p><p>U.S. bank stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>It fell 4.8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It fell 3.92%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>It fell 3.2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>It fell 2.7%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unusual Movement | Futures indices both fell, and Chinese concept stocks performed sluggishly in pre-market trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnusual Movement | Futures indices both fell, and Chinese concept stocks performed sluggishly in pre-market trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-29 16:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Thursday, September 29, the UK unexpectedly intervened to rescue the market, triggering a collective rebound in European and American stock and bond markets. Today, global markets have returned to turmoil. Futures for all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1% in pre-market trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21338872e0982368b9d049f87709a866\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>The stock fell 20% in pre-market trading after Missfresh and its two companies were ordered to pay 1.3 million yuan. The Zhejiang company was deregistered due to a resolution to dissolve it.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks generally fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>,JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell by more than 3%, and Baidu fell by more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d290ae502a32330bffc77feb4068c9e\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 1.35% after reports of sluggish demand for the iPhone 14 led Apple to abandon production increases. Supply chain representatives stated that the total order volume has not been</p><p>U.S. bank stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>It fell 4.8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It fell 3.92%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>It fell 3.2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>It fell 2.7%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191634483","content_text":"9月29日（周四），隔夜英国意外出手救市，带动欧美股债市场集体反弹，今日全球市场重回动荡。美股三大指数期货在盘前时段均跌超1%。每日优鲜盘前跌20%，每日优鲜两公司被执行130万；浙江公司注销，原因为决议解散。中概股盘前普跌，小鹏汽车跌近8%，爱奇艺、网易、京东、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度跌超2%。苹果跌1.35%，有消息称iPhone14需求低迷，苹果放弃增产。供应链人士表示总订单未调整。美股银行股盘前走低，瑞士信贷跌超5%，巴克莱银行跌4.8%，德意志银行跌3.92%，瑞银跌3.2%，汇丰控股跌2.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918492213,"gmtCreate":1664425875333,"gmtModify":1676537453135,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","text":"$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918492213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918937442,"gmtCreate":1664313628287,"gmtModify":1676537428609,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918937442","repostId":"1140617695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140617695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664176713,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140617695?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 15:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Jobs' old capital has been eaten for 11 years: fattening Cook and thinning scalpers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140617695","media":"雪豹财经社","summary":"今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>By Yan Xuegong</p><p>One scalper earned six figures this year, only a third of what he would have in previous years, but he is already considered one of the best among scalpers. This year's market is destined to yield less profit and more losses; some scalpers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. Scalpers who once made a fortune from Apple suffered a setback after the launch of the iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under Steve Jobs' leadership, ushered in a golden age of overnight wealth for scalpers. The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, when some dealers first discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold. The iPhone 13, released last year, became the last remnant of the scalper boom.</p><p>Apple firmly holds the title of the world's most valuable technology company, but Tim Cook, who has achieved huge commercial success at the helm of this supercarrier, still seems to have not dispelled external doubts. In the eyes of some Apple fans, Apple is losing its innovative soul and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-creating company.</p><p>After 11 years of Steve Jobs' savings, Apple has once again faced an embarrassing moment where its reputation has failed.</p><p>The iPhone 14, criticized for \"lacking innovation and soul,\" was neglected by consumers and criticized by influential figures. It also caused scalpers who made a fortune during the Steve Jobs era to fall into a trap, with some suffering net losses of hundreds of thousands of yuan in a single day. What was once a golden apple has become a bitter fruit that many scalpers find hard to swallow.</p><p>Over the past 11 years, thanks to its dazzling brand aura and enormous business momentum, Apple has firmly held the title of the world's most valuable technology company, with revenue increasing nearly 2.5 times and market value increasing more than 6 times. However, Cook, who has taken charge of this supercarrier and achieved huge commercial success, still seems to have not dispelled external doubts.</p><p>The topic of \"Cook shedding Apple's innovation label\" sparks a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Steve Jobs' daughter criticized the iPhone 14 as unoriginal, and economist Ren Zeping bluntly stated that \"the iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's rise and fall.\"</p><p>The iPhone 14's failure has awakened scalpers who were still immersed in the feast and revelry of the past. The fervor of the Jobs era still lingers, but the chill has arrived. Their immediate priority is to rush to the next battlefield and earn more profits.</p><p><b>A bet that is bound to be lost</b></p><p>\"I made thorough preparations, but I didn't expect to still lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized her situation in the three days since the iPhone 14 was released.</p><p>To win the annual battle for Apple's new products, the experienced Ye Jingyue drafted a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7:00 a.m. on September 16, he and his team staked out three Apple stores in Beijing's Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun, and Hopson One. “Our team only has 3 people. Including the temporarily hired foreign players on the queue, there are 15 of them.”</p><p>They hired people to queue up to sell the goods for 100 yuan each. These people, who might be students or housewives, would be paid regardless of whether they got the goods or not. Ye Jingyue's team of three stood guard to the side. If the hired person snatched the phone, they would show up to pay, and then take the new phone and sell it to the users in line at a higher price.</p><p>Having done her homework, Ye Jingyue had a very clear goal. The night before Apple's launch date, he gave his foreign aides a task: \"This year, we will only grab the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, with purple being the top priority.\"</p><p>On the first day, he snagged two 14 Pros at the original price and resold them at a premium of 1,000 yuan, making a profit of 2,000 yuan. However, after acquiring more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. “I was very happy when I first received the phone, thinking that I would resell it at a markup of about 3,000 yuan per unit, with a profit of 1,500 yuan per unit,” he told Snow Leopard Finance. “But after I got the phone, I found that I couldn’t sell it at all.”</p><p>The price premium of Apple's new phones has plummeted faster than Ye Jingyue had imagined. By noon that day, he realized something was wrong and only offered the \"original price\" at a premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one paid any attention. On the first day, Ye Jingyue sold most of her phones at a premium of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the following two days, losses gradually widened as the premium price of Apple's new iPhones plummeted in the scalper market.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is not the only scalper who has stumbled upon Apple's new products.</p><p>“The scalpers lost their bet, and there are no winners this year.” Lü Fan, who has been a mobile phone distributor since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance. “The price was inflated too high before the release this year. After I got the phone before the release, my competitors set the premium for the purple version of the 14 Pro Max at around 3,000 yuan. The extremely high profits aroused the scalpers’ gambling spirit.”</p><p>The vast majority of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lü Fan received were \"snapped up\" by scalpers who marked them up by more than 1,500 yuan. \"There was nothing I could do, they gave me too much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after release. (Image source: provided by Lü Fan)</p><p>Lü Fan dealt with scalpers for a long time, and he divided the scalpers into three levels: high, medium, and low.</p><p>At the lowest level are newcomers who follow the trend, and these people have lost the most this year. Intermediate users have their own team and can snag phones at the original price. High-end scalpers can get ahead of the curve, ordering goods from distributors before they are released. Given this year's market trends, only high-level scalpers have the opportunity to make a small fortune.</p><p>Li Nan, who ordered a batch of new phones directly from the dealer, was one of the lucky ones who made a small fortune. But in his view, \"for a product like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance that before each order, he receives pre-orders from customer groups and personal friends to determine the quantity to be purchased. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least by more than half.\"</p><p>Loyal customers who once paid extra to buy new Apple phones have calmed down a lot this year, and their reasons for losing enthusiasm mostly point to criticisms of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. One customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think there's any value in showing off by being the first to receive a phone that is extremely similar to the iPhone 13 I have.\"</p><p>Apple fans should remain calm; scalpers' wallets will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only one-third of what she earned in previous years, but she is already considered one of the best among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance that this year's market is destined to yield less profit and more losses, with some competitors already losing 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail investors betray scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, scalper.\" Liu Wei posted this on his WeChat Moments on the evening of the first day Apple's new iPhone went on sale.</p><p>That day, after buying two iPhone 14 Pros, he was stopped by scalpers at the door. They added 1,800 yuan to each phone and sold it to the other party, making a profit of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Sensing a business opportunity, Liu Wei gathered several classmates that evening to rush to buy the iPhone 14 Pro. In his view, this was a sure-fire business. It's best to sell it to scalpers; if it doesn't sell, you can get a 14-day unconditional refund. He joked, \"There will always be scalpers taking over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei, who harvest scalpers in reverse, are known online as \"scalper hunters\". Among the foreign players in the scalper team, some have figured out the tricks and begun to \"betray\" the scalpers.</p><p>Among the foreign aides hired by Ye Jingyue who were queuing up, two of them snapped up the new phones and immediately \"betrayed\" them. They refused to let Ye Jingyue's team pay on their behalf, but instead bought the phones themselves and resold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price as soon as they left. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm practically working for them.\"</p><p>In Lü Fan's eyes, the more sophisticated scalper was an Apple distributor.</p><p>In an effort to hype up the market, major distributors released information after receiving the phones, jointly driving up the prices of new products and targeting the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". Not many of the first batch of premium-priced phones reached ordinary users; instead, most were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The upstream distributors have a stable portion of profits and a certain premium right. Midstream scalpers profit from the price difference by reselling, while downstream users are eager to get their hands on new phones, and they are the ones who ultimately pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the iPhone 14's poor reputation turned this hidden trading market into a game where more losers than winners. Distributors' profits remained relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of Apple fans suddenly cooled down, and the pressure was transmitted to scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, still reluctant to wake up from the Apple feast dream of \"huge profits on a single device,\" have suddenly become targets for hunters to harvest.</p><p><b>Farewell to the Golden Age</b></p><p>Scalpers who dare to spend money to gamble on huge profits have witnessed the enormous wealth dream created by Apple iPhones.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Steve Jobs, dressed in a black sweater and jeans, appeared holding an iPhone 4, becoming a milestone in the history of smartphones and ushering in the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"The iPhone 4 is a groundbreaking product, and the market is incredibly enthusiastic. A phone that costs 5,000 yuan can be resold for 15,000 yuan no matter what channel you get it from.\" Lü Fan, a graduate of a 985 university, sensed a business opportunity and started a business reselling Apple phones. At that time, in order to rush to buy Apple phones, scalpers set up tents and waited 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City in Beijing.</p><p>As Apple's flagship device, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units within three days of its launch, and demand exceeded supply. At that time, the first sale in the domestic market was about four months late, and scalpers made a fortune by taking advantage of this time difference.</p><p>Lü Fan told Snow Leopard Finance that he discovered that Apple stores in Hong Kong were limited to five units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up. The largest order earned him hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"Back then, even a slightly more diligent scalper team could earn a million yuan in three months, which was considered a small amount.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, you still had to pay an extra 1,000 yuan to buy an iPhone 4 from scalpers.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Lü Fan discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold.</p><p>Lü Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at the time, recalled that the iPhone 8 did not sell very well, queues at Apple stores and in Zhongguancun decreased significantly, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was at this time that criticism of Apple's lack of innovation began to rise. From the iPhone 5 to the iPhone 8, several generations of Apple products have been criticized for being too similar in appearance, like \"four generations under one roof,\" without any substantial innovation in functionality.</p><p>The highly anticipated iPhone X delivered a slap in the face to scalpers with a more lukewarm market response. Users are not buying into this so-called \"unprecedented smartphone,\" and the iPhone X's two most proud innovations—full-screen display and facial recognition—are considered to be no longer originals.</p><p>Scalpers lost money, and Apple suffered even worse losses. Following poor sales of the iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 7% at one point, wiping out over $60 billion in market value.</p><p>The iPhone X has been met with a lukewarm reception, and Apple's innovation capabilities have been brought down from their pedestal, leaving scalpers with increasingly smaller opportunities to profit from price differences. A new phone usually costs a few hundred yuan more, which is a far cry from the difficulty in obtaining one before the iPhone 6S, which often doubled in price.</p><p>The iPhone 13, released last year, became the last remnant of the scalper boom.</p><p>At that time, there was a global chip shortage, and Apple was facing a supply chain crisis. The supply and demand relationship during this special period has given scalpers an opportunity to take advantage of it. Ye Jingyue later summarized, \"It wasn't that the iPhone 13 was particularly popular, but rather that Apple didn't have enough stock in the first place, which made that time a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 wasn't so lucky. On the one hand, the new phone has been criticized for being almost indistinguishable from its predecessor, with \"slow Dynamic Island,\" multiple bugs exposed, and new features repeatedly failing. On the other hand, Cook learned from his lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of the iPhone 14, resulting in a very ample supply of the new model. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the fertile ground for scalpers to make money is becoming increasingly barren.</p><p><b>A turning point of rise and fall?</b></p><p>After staying up all night watching this year's new product launches, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind not to spend extra money on scalpers to buy new phones this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and has paid more than once for the first new model. In her view, taking the lead in showing off the latest iPhone is not about showing off wealth, but about reflecting a pursuit of top-notch new technology consumer products. \"It's very geeky.\" But the iPhone 14 made her feel that \"stealing such overly similar models is not geeky at all.\"</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is widely recognized as being more conservative than ambitious.</p><p>Since \"Extraordinary\" was adopted as Apple's slogan in 1997, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. During the Steve Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, thus firmly establishing itself as the top tech company.</p><p>However, since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has rarely made any groundbreaking innovations, and has even gradually degenerated from a leader to a follower. The successful iPhone 6 marked Apple's first large-screen phone and is seen as following in the footsteps of brands like Samsung. The iPhone 14's Dynamic Island and other features have also been accused of plagiarizing Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly stated on social media that \"Apple is living off Steve Jobs' past achievements,\" and even believed that 2022 was a turning point in Apple's rise and fall.</p><p>Undeniably, in terms of sales volume and company market capitalization, Apple under Cook's leadership has achieved great success. Part of the reason is that Apple phones, which were once expensive, have begun to \"bow down\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noted that starting with the iPhone 11, Apple phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of the iPhone 11 has dropped from 6,499 yuan for its predecessor, the iPhone XR, to 5,499 yuan. On the other hand, the prices of flagship Android phones continue to rise, with the OPPO Find X2 Pro starting at 5,999 yuan and the Xiaomi 10 Ultra starting at 5,299 yuan, on par with or even higher than the iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued its strategy of not raising prices for new phones.</p><p>Today, Jobs' legacy is still enough to feed Apple for a while. According to Counterpoint Research, in Q2 2022, Apple still held more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a new record for the iPhone since 2007 with a market share of 57%, and capturing more than 60% of global mobile phone profits.</p><p>Even Apple fans like Hu Yiwen won't easily abandon Apple. Despite the lack of innovation, the stable annual hardware (mainly chip) updates and stable software systems still hold great appeal for them.</p><p>In other words, the enormous momentum created during the Jobs era was enough to keep the Apple empire, which was somewhat mediocre in terms of innovation, moving forward by inertia. But as Apple's halo fades, the chilly cicada that knows autumn has already faintly smelled the chill and sensed the consequences of a lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lü Fan, a mobile phone distributor who relies on Apple for a living, Apple remains the main source of his revenue. \"Whether the scalpers fail or not does not affect all of this; the sun will rise as usual.\"</p><p>Scalpers who profit from scarcity and time differences have no time to grieve over this. Their immediate priority is to rush to the next battlefield and earn more profits.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has now focused all her efforts on the Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance that the premium level of Huawei's new phones has always been relatively stable. Currently, even the lowest model costs an extra 1,000 yuan, and the rarest Porsche model has been resold for more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which still stands at the top of the global software and hardware integration pyramid, the iPhone 14 is unlikely to be the swan song. But the final chapter in the scalpers' dream of getting rich quick may be a prelude to the end of Apple's easy win.</p><p>(All characters in this article are pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1634697401643","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs' old capital has been eaten for 11 years: fattening Cook and thinning scalpers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs' old capital has been eaten for 11 years: fattening Cook and thinning scalpers\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪豹财经社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-26 15:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>By Yan Xuegong</p><p>One scalper earned six figures this year, only a third of what he would have in previous years, but he is already considered one of the best among scalpers. This year's market is destined to yield less profit and more losses; some scalpers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. Scalpers who once made a fortune from Apple suffered a setback after the launch of the iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under Steve Jobs' leadership, ushered in a golden age of overnight wealth for scalpers. The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, when some dealers first discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold. The iPhone 13, released last year, became the last remnant of the scalper boom.</p><p>Apple firmly holds the title of the world's most valuable technology company, but Tim Cook, who has achieved huge commercial success at the helm of this supercarrier, still seems to have not dispelled external doubts. In the eyes of some Apple fans, Apple is losing its innovative soul and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-creating company.</p><p>After 11 years of Steve Jobs' savings, Apple has once again faced an embarrassing moment where its reputation has failed.</p><p>The iPhone 14, criticized for \"lacking innovation and soul,\" was neglected by consumers and criticized by influential figures. It also caused scalpers who made a fortune during the Steve Jobs era to fall into a trap, with some suffering net losses of hundreds of thousands of yuan in a single day. What was once a golden apple has become a bitter fruit that many scalpers find hard to swallow.</p><p>Over the past 11 years, thanks to its dazzling brand aura and enormous business momentum, Apple has firmly held the title of the world's most valuable technology company, with revenue increasing nearly 2.5 times and market value increasing more than 6 times. However, Cook, who has taken charge of this supercarrier and achieved huge commercial success, still seems to have not dispelled external doubts.</p><p>The topic of \"Cook shedding Apple's innovation label\" sparks a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Steve Jobs' daughter criticized the iPhone 14 as unoriginal, and economist Ren Zeping bluntly stated that \"the iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's rise and fall.\"</p><p>The iPhone 14's failure has awakened scalpers who were still immersed in the feast and revelry of the past. The fervor of the Jobs era still lingers, but the chill has arrived. Their immediate priority is to rush to the next battlefield and earn more profits.</p><p><b>A bet that is bound to be lost</b></p><p>\"I made thorough preparations, but I didn't expect to still lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized her situation in the three days since the iPhone 14 was released.</p><p>To win the annual battle for Apple's new products, the experienced Ye Jingyue drafted a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7:00 a.m. on September 16, he and his team staked out three Apple stores in Beijing's Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun, and Hopson One. “Our team only has 3 people. Including the temporarily hired foreign players on the queue, there are 15 of them.”</p><p>They hired people to queue up to sell the goods for 100 yuan each. These people, who might be students or housewives, would be paid regardless of whether they got the goods or not. Ye Jingyue's team of three stood guard to the side. If the hired person snatched the phone, they would show up to pay, and then take the new phone and sell it to the users in line at a higher price.</p><p>Having done her homework, Ye Jingyue had a very clear goal. The night before Apple's launch date, he gave his foreign aides a task: \"This year, we will only grab the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, with purple being the top priority.\"</p><p>On the first day, he snagged two 14 Pros at the original price and resold them at a premium of 1,000 yuan, making a profit of 2,000 yuan. However, after acquiring more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. “I was very happy when I first received the phone, thinking that I would resell it at a markup of about 3,000 yuan per unit, with a profit of 1,500 yuan per unit,” he told Snow Leopard Finance. “But after I got the phone, I found that I couldn’t sell it at all.”</p><p>The price premium of Apple's new phones has plummeted faster than Ye Jingyue had imagined. By noon that day, he realized something was wrong and only offered the \"original price\" at a premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one paid any attention. On the first day, Ye Jingyue sold most of her phones at a premium of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the following two days, losses gradually widened as the premium price of Apple's new iPhones plummeted in the scalper market.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is not the only scalper who has stumbled upon Apple's new products.</p><p>“The scalpers lost their bet, and there are no winners this year.” Lü Fan, who has been a mobile phone distributor since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance. “The price was inflated too high before the release this year. After I got the phone before the release, my competitors set the premium for the purple version of the 14 Pro Max at around 3,000 yuan. The extremely high profits aroused the scalpers’ gambling spirit.”</p><p>The vast majority of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lü Fan received were \"snapped up\" by scalpers who marked them up by more than 1,500 yuan. \"There was nothing I could do, they gave me too much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after release. (Image source: provided by Lü Fan)</p><p>Lü Fan dealt with scalpers for a long time, and he divided the scalpers into three levels: high, medium, and low.</p><p>At the lowest level are newcomers who follow the trend, and these people have lost the most this year. Intermediate users have their own team and can snag phones at the original price. High-end scalpers can get ahead of the curve, ordering goods from distributors before they are released. Given this year's market trends, only high-level scalpers have the opportunity to make a small fortune.</p><p>Li Nan, who ordered a batch of new phones directly from the dealer, was one of the lucky ones who made a small fortune. But in his view, \"for a product like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance that before each order, he receives pre-orders from customer groups and personal friends to determine the quantity to be purchased. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least by more than half.\"</p><p>Loyal customers who once paid extra to buy new Apple phones have calmed down a lot this year, and their reasons for losing enthusiasm mostly point to criticisms of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. One customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think there's any value in showing off by being the first to receive a phone that is extremely similar to the iPhone 13 I have.\"</p><p>Apple fans should remain calm; scalpers' wallets will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only one-third of what she earned in previous years, but she is already considered one of the best among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance that this year's market is destined to yield less profit and more losses, with some competitors already losing 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail investors betray scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, scalper.\" Liu Wei posted this on his WeChat Moments on the evening of the first day Apple's new iPhone went on sale.</p><p>That day, after buying two iPhone 14 Pros, he was stopped by scalpers at the door. They added 1,800 yuan to each phone and sold it to the other party, making a profit of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Sensing a business opportunity, Liu Wei gathered several classmates that evening to rush to buy the iPhone 14 Pro. In his view, this was a sure-fire business. It's best to sell it to scalpers; if it doesn't sell, you can get a 14-day unconditional refund. He joked, \"There will always be scalpers taking over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei, who harvest scalpers in reverse, are known online as \"scalper hunters\". Among the foreign players in the scalper team, some have figured out the tricks and begun to \"betray\" the scalpers.</p><p>Among the foreign aides hired by Ye Jingyue who were queuing up, two of them snapped up the new phones and immediately \"betrayed\" them. They refused to let Ye Jingyue's team pay on their behalf, but instead bought the phones themselves and resold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price as soon as they left. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm practically working for them.\"</p><p>In Lü Fan's eyes, the more sophisticated scalper was an Apple distributor.</p><p>In an effort to hype up the market, major distributors released information after receiving the phones, jointly driving up the prices of new products and targeting the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". Not many of the first batch of premium-priced phones reached ordinary users; instead, most were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The upstream distributors have a stable portion of profits and a certain premium right. Midstream scalpers profit from the price difference by reselling, while downstream users are eager to get their hands on new phones, and they are the ones who ultimately pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the iPhone 14's poor reputation turned this hidden trading market into a game where more losers than winners. Distributors' profits remained relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of Apple fans suddenly cooled down, and the pressure was transmitted to scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, still reluctant to wake up from the Apple feast dream of \"huge profits on a single device,\" have suddenly become targets for hunters to harvest.</p><p><b>Farewell to the Golden Age</b></p><p>Scalpers who dare to spend money to gamble on huge profits have witnessed the enormous wealth dream created by Apple iPhones.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Steve Jobs, dressed in a black sweater and jeans, appeared holding an iPhone 4, becoming a milestone in the history of smartphones and ushering in the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"The iPhone 4 is a groundbreaking product, and the market is incredibly enthusiastic. A phone that costs 5,000 yuan can be resold for 15,000 yuan no matter what channel you get it from.\" Lü Fan, a graduate of a 985 university, sensed a business opportunity and started a business reselling Apple phones. At that time, in order to rush to buy Apple phones, scalpers set up tents and waited 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City in Beijing.</p><p>As Apple's flagship device, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units within three days of its launch, and demand exceeded supply. At that time, the first sale in the domestic market was about four months late, and scalpers made a fortune by taking advantage of this time difference.</p><p>Lü Fan told Snow Leopard Finance that he discovered that Apple stores in Hong Kong were limited to five units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up. The largest order earned him hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"Back then, even a slightly more diligent scalper team could earn a million yuan in three months, which was considered a small amount.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, you still had to pay an extra 1,000 yuan to buy an iPhone 4 from scalpers.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Lü Fan discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold.</p><p>Lü Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at the time, recalled that the iPhone 8 did not sell very well, queues at Apple stores and in Zhongguancun decreased significantly, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was at this time that criticism of Apple's lack of innovation began to rise. From the iPhone 5 to the iPhone 8, several generations of Apple products have been criticized for being too similar in appearance, like \"four generations under one roof,\" without any substantial innovation in functionality.</p><p>The highly anticipated iPhone X delivered a slap in the face to scalpers with a more lukewarm market response. Users are not buying into this so-called \"unprecedented smartphone,\" and the iPhone X's two most proud innovations—full-screen display and facial recognition—are considered to be no longer originals.</p><p>Scalpers lost money, and Apple suffered even worse losses. Following poor sales of the iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 7% at one point, wiping out over $60 billion in market value.</p><p>The iPhone X has been met with a lukewarm reception, and Apple's innovation capabilities have been brought down from their pedestal, leaving scalpers with increasingly smaller opportunities to profit from price differences. A new phone usually costs a few hundred yuan more, which is a far cry from the difficulty in obtaining one before the iPhone 6S, which often doubled in price.</p><p>The iPhone 13, released last year, became the last remnant of the scalper boom.</p><p>At that time, there was a global chip shortage, and Apple was facing a supply chain crisis. The supply and demand relationship during this special period has given scalpers an opportunity to take advantage of it. Ye Jingyue later summarized, \"It wasn't that the iPhone 13 was particularly popular, but rather that Apple didn't have enough stock in the first place, which made that time a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 wasn't so lucky. On the one hand, the new phone has been criticized for being almost indistinguishable from its predecessor, with \"slow Dynamic Island,\" multiple bugs exposed, and new features repeatedly failing. On the other hand, Cook learned from his lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of the iPhone 14, resulting in a very ample supply of the new model. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the fertile ground for scalpers to make money is becoming increasingly barren.</p><p><b>A turning point of rise and fall?</b></p><p>After staying up all night watching this year's new product launches, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind not to spend extra money on scalpers to buy new phones this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and has paid more than once for the first new model. In her view, taking the lead in showing off the latest iPhone is not about showing off wealth, but about reflecting a pursuit of top-notch new technology consumer products. \"It's very geeky.\" But the iPhone 14 made her feel that \"stealing such overly similar models is not geeky at all.\"</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is widely recognized as being more conservative than ambitious.</p><p>Since \"Extraordinary\" was adopted as Apple's slogan in 1997, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. During the Steve Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, thus firmly establishing itself as the top tech company.</p><p>However, since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has rarely made any groundbreaking innovations, and has even gradually degenerated from a leader to a follower. The successful iPhone 6 marked Apple's first large-screen phone and is seen as following in the footsteps of brands like Samsung. The iPhone 14's Dynamic Island and other features have also been accused of plagiarizing Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly stated on social media that \"Apple is living off Steve Jobs' past achievements,\" and even believed that 2022 was a turning point in Apple's rise and fall.</p><p>Undeniably, in terms of sales volume and company market capitalization, Apple under Cook's leadership has achieved great success. Part of the reason is that Apple phones, which were once expensive, have begun to \"bow down\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noted that starting with the iPhone 11, Apple phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of the iPhone 11 has dropped from 6,499 yuan for its predecessor, the iPhone XR, to 5,499 yuan. On the other hand, the prices of flagship Android phones continue to rise, with the OPPO Find X2 Pro starting at 5,999 yuan and the Xiaomi 10 Ultra starting at 5,299 yuan, on par with or even higher than the iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued its strategy of not raising prices for new phones.</p><p>Today, Jobs' legacy is still enough to feed Apple for a while. According to Counterpoint Research, in Q2 2022, Apple still held more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a new record for the iPhone since 2007 with a market share of 57%, and capturing more than 60% of global mobile phone profits.</p><p>Even Apple fans like Hu Yiwen won't easily abandon Apple. Despite the lack of innovation, the stable annual hardware (mainly chip) updates and stable software systems still hold great appeal for them.</p><p>In other words, the enormous momentum created during the Jobs era was enough to keep the Apple empire, which was somewhat mediocre in terms of innovation, moving forward by inertia. But as Apple's halo fades, the chilly cicada that knows autumn has already faintly smelled the chill and sensed the consequences of a lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lü Fan, a mobile phone distributor who relies on Apple for a living, Apple remains the main source of his revenue. \"Whether the scalpers fail or not does not affect all of this; the sun will rise as usual.\"</p><p>Scalpers who profit from scarcity and time differences have no time to grieve over this. Their immediate priority is to rush to the next battlefield and earn more profits.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has now focused all her efforts on the Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance that the premium level of Huawei's new phones has always been relatively stable. Currently, even the lowest model costs an extra 1,000 yuan, and the rarest Porsche model has been resold for more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which still stands at the top of the global software and hardware integration pyramid, the iPhone 14 is unlikely to be the swan song. But the final chapter in the scalpers' dream of getting rich quick may be a prelude to the end of Apple's easy win.</p><p>(All characters in this article are pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml\">雪豹财经社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f2cbfd4e34e8ec82c7adfe60fe60a9","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140617695","content_text":"文/闫学功一位黄牛今年赚了六位数，只有往年的三分之一，但在黄牛党中已算佼佼者。今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。曾靠苹果赚得盆满钵满的黄牛们在iPhone 14推出后栽了跟头。乔布斯掌舵下的苹果，曾为黄牛构筑了一夜暴富的黄金时代。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，有经销商头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。而去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，但执掌这艘超级航母取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。在一些果粉眼中，苹果正在失去创新的灵魂，逐渐沦为一家平庸的造富公司。乔布斯的老本吃了11年，苹果又一次迎来了口碑翻车的尴尬时刻。被诟病“毫无创新，失去灵魂”的iPhone 14，被消费者冷落，被大V吐槽，也让在乔布斯时代赚得盆满钵满的“黄牛们”踩到了坑里，有人一天净亏几十万元。曾经的金苹果，成为不少黄牛眼中难以下咽的苦果。11年来，凭借耀眼的品牌光环和巨大的商业势能，苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，营收增长了近2.5倍，市值涨了6倍多。但执掌这艘超级航母并取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。关于“库克揭下苹果创新标签”的话题，在几乎每一次新品发布后都会掀起一波讨论的热潮。乔布斯女儿吐槽iPhone 14毫无新意，经济学家任泽平直言“iPhone 14可能是苹果盛极而衰的标志”。iPhone 14的翻车，惊醒了还沉浸在昔日盛宴狂欢中的黄牛们。乔布斯时代的狂热余温尚存，但寒意已至。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。一场必输的赌局“做了万全的准备，没想到还是亏了四五万。”做了3年黄牛的叶静跃叹了口气，总结iPhone 14发售3天以来自己的战况。为了打好一年一度的苹果新品之战，经验丰富的叶静跃拟定了一份翔实的方案。9月16日早上7点，他和他的团队便分别在北京朝阳大悦城、三里屯和合生汇的3家苹果门店蹲守。“我们团队只有3人，算上临时雇的排队外援，有15个。”他们以每人100元的价格雇人排队抢售，这些人可能是学生、家庭主妇，不管抢没抢到都会付报酬。叶静跃团队3人则在一旁蹲守，如果雇来的人抢到手机，他们就会现身付款，随后便拿着新机向排队的用户加价售卖。做足功课的叶静跃目标十分清晰。苹果发售日前一天晚上，他便给外援们下了任务：“今年只抢iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max，紫色是最优先款式。”第一天，他以原价抢到了两台14 Pro，转手加价1000元卖出，赚了2000元。但随后以1500元的溢价从用户手中收购了20多台后，他便开始亏损。“刚拿到手机时觉得很开心，想着一台加价3000元左右倒卖，每台还有1500元的利润。”他告诉雪豹财经社，“但手机到手后，发现根本卖不出去。”苹果新机溢价的跳水，比叶静跃想象中来得快。他到当天中午已经觉察不对，只以1500元溢价的“原价”吆喝，但已无人问津。第一天，叶静跃大部分手机加价600元左右卖出，亏了两万元。此后两天，随着苹果新机溢价在黄牛市场的跳水，亏损逐渐扩大。在苹果新品上栽了跟头的黄牛，远不止叶静跃一人。“黄牛们赌输了，今年没有赢家。”从iPhone 4时代开始做手机经销商的吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，“今年发售前价格被炒得太高，我在发售前拿到机子后，同行们都将14 Pro Max紫色款的溢价定在3000元左右，超高利润唤起了黄牛们的赌性。”吕樊拿到的第一批14 Pro，绝大部分被加价1500元以上的黄牛们“抢”走了，“没办法，他们给的太多了”。首日与发售3日后价格对比  图源：吕樊提供吕樊长年跟黄牛打交道，他将黄牛党分为高中低三个层级。最低层级的是跟风的新手，这些人今年赔得最惨。中级的自己有团队，能以原价抢购到手机。高级黄牛则能够先人一步，在发售前便已从销商手中订到货。按照今年的行情，只有高级黄牛才有机会小赚一笔。从经销商手中直接预订了一批新机的李楠，是小赚一笔的幸运儿之一。但在他看来，“对于苹果这种产品来说，小赚就是亏。”李楠告诉雪豹财经社，他每次订货前，都会在客户群和个人好友那里收到预订单，以此来确定进货数量。但今年预订的客户明显减少，“起码少了一大半”。曾不惜加价购买苹果新机的忠实客户今年冷静了许多，他们不再热忱的理由大多指向对iPhone 14缺乏创新的诟病。有客户告诉李楠，“我不觉得率先拿到一款与我手中iPhone 13极其相似的手机，有什么炫耀的价值。”果粉冷静，黄牛的钱包必然缩水。李楠今年赚了六位数，只有往年的1/3，但在黄牛党中已经算是佼佼者。他告诉雪豹财经社，今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有的同行已经亏了四五十万元。散户背刺黄牛“谢谢你，黄牛君。”苹果新机开售首日晚上，刘威发表了这样一条朋友圈。当天，他买到两台iPhone 14 Pro后，便被门口的黄牛拦下，每台加价1800元把手机卖给对方，赚了3600元差价。嗅到商机的刘威当晚便召集了几个同学，一起去抢购iPhone 14 Pro。在他看来，这是一桩稳赚不赔的生意。能卖给黄牛最好，卖不出去还可以14天无条件退款。他笑称，“总会有黄牛们接盘。”像刘威这样反向收割黄牛的个人散户，在网上被称为“黄牛猎手”。黄牛团队的外援中，也有人摸清了门道，开始“背刺”黄牛。叶静跃雇来排队的外援中，有两个人抢购到新机后当场“反水”，拒绝叶静跃团队代为付钱，而是自己买下手机，出门就高价转手卖给了另一波黄牛。在叶静跃看来，“我简直是在给他们打工。”吕樊眼中更高级的黄牛猎手，是苹果经销商。为了炒热市场，大经销商们在拿到手机后就对外放出消息，联合将新品价格炒到很高，并瞄定紫色iPhone 14 Pro Max为今年的“溢价王”。第一批溢价手机没有多少流到普通用户手中，而是大部分高价卖给了黄牛。以往的苹果黄牛市场就像一个漏斗。最上游的经销商拥有一部分稳定的利润和一定的溢价权。中游的黄牛通过倒买倒卖赚取差价，最下游的是急于抢先拿到新机的用户，他们是最终为高溢价买单的人。但iPhone 14的口碑翻车，让这个水面下的隐秘交易市场，变成了一个输多赢少的牌局。经销商的利润仍然相对稳定，但果粉的热情骤然降温，压力便被传导到了黄牛们身上。依旧沉浸在“一机暴利”的苹果盛宴梦中不愿醒来的黄牛，突然成了被猎手们反向收割的对象。告别黄金时代敢砸钱赌暴利的黄牛们，曾见证过苹果手机造就的巨大财富梦幻。12年前，身穿黑色毛衣、牛仔裤的乔布斯手拿iPhone 4亮相，成为智能手机历史上的里程碑，也开启了黄牛的黄金时代。“iPhone 4算是划时代的产品，市场热情的不得了，一台5000元的手机，不管任何渠道拿到，转手就是15000元卖出去。”985高校毕业的吕樊嗅到商机，做起了倒卖苹果手机的生意。当时，为了抢购苹果手机，黄牛们带着帐篷，在北京三里屯和大悦城提前48小时蹲守。作为苹果的一代神机，首批iPhone 4上市3天就售出了170万部，而且供不应求。当时，国内市场的首售时间晚了4个月左右，利用这段时间差，黄牛们赚得盆满钵满。吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，他当时发现香港的苹果店每人限购5台，于是组织了一行人坐飞机去香港排队，最大的一单赚了几十万元。“那时候稍微勤快点的黄牛团队，3个月下来赚百万都算少的。”甚至一年后iPhone 4S推出时，找黄牛买iPhone 4仍需要加价1000元。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，那是吕樊头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。当时已经是苹果经销商的吕樊回忆道，iPhone 8卖得不是很好，苹果门店和中关村排队的现象大幅减少，不少高价囤货的黄牛党亏了钱。也正是在这个时候，外界对苹果缺乏创新的批判甚嚣尘上。从iPhone 5到iPhone 8，苹果几代产品被吐槽外形过于相似，好比“四世同堂”，功能也没有实质性革新。被寄予厚望的iPhone X，以更冷淡的市场反应给了黄牛们一记耳光。用户对这款号称“从未有过的智能手机”并不买账，iPhone X 最得意的两个创新——全面屏和人脸识别，被认为早已不是首创。黄牛们亏钱，苹果损失更惨。iPhone X销量不佳后苹果屡次减产，股价一度暴跌7%以上，超600亿美元市值蒸发。iPhone X遇冷，苹果的创新能力被拉下神坛，黄牛们赚差价的空间日渐缩小。一台新机通常加价小几百元，与iPhone 6S之前的一机难求、动辄价格翻倍相差甚远。去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。彼时正值全球缺芯，苹果遭遇供应链危机。特殊时期的供需关系，让黄牛们找到了可乘之机。叶静跃事后总结道，“并不是iPhone 13多受欢迎，而是苹果在第一时间没有那么多备货，那个时间点就成了赚钱的好机会。”但iPhone 14没有这样的幸运。一方面，新机被吐槽与上一代产品几乎毫无区别，“灵动岛不灵动”，多项bug曝光，新功能屡屡翻车。另一方面，库克吸取教训，更注重iPhone 14的供应链管理，新机供货十分充足。有网友表示，Pro版本新机等半个月左右便可到货。这意味着，黄牛赚钱的土壤越来越贫瘠。盛极而衰的拐点？熬夜看完今年的新品发布会后，苹果发烧友胡艺文下定决心，今年不再找黄牛加钱抢购新机。她买过iPhone 14以外的所有iPhone机型，而且不止一次加价购买首发新机。在她看来，抢先一步晒出最新款iPhone并非炫富，而是体现一种对顶级新科技消费产品的追求，“这很极客”。但iPhone 14让她觉得，“抢这种过度相似的机型一点也不极客”。对被公认守成有余、进取不足的库克而言，这当然不是件好事。从1997年将“不同凡响”定为slogan开始，创新便被视为苹果的灵魂。在乔布斯时代，苹果曾推出不止一款开创性的产品，并凭此坐稳了科技公司的头把交椅。但自2011年库克担任CEO以来，苹果便鲜有令人眼前一亮的创新，甚至从引领者的角色逐渐沦为追随者。在销量上取得成功的iPhone 6，是苹果首次推出大屏手机，被认为步了三星等品牌的后尘。iPhone 14的灵动岛等功能，也被质疑抄袭安卓厂商。经济学家任泽平在社交平台上直言，“苹果是在吃乔布斯的老本”，甚至认为2022年是苹果盛极而衰的转折点。不可否认，从销量和公司市值来看，库克掌舵下的苹果取得了巨大的成功。部分原因在于，昔日价格高高在上的苹果手机，在定价上开始“低头”。胡艺文注意到，从iPhone 11开始，苹果手机变得“便宜起来”。一方面，iPhone 11的起售价从上一代产品iPhone XR的6499元降至5499元。另一方面，安卓阵营的旗舰机价格持续上涨，OPPO Find X2 Pro版本5999元起，小米10至尊版也要5299元起，与iPhone持平甚至更高。此后，苹果一直延续新机不涨价的策略。如今，乔布斯留下的老本仍然够苹果吃上一阵子。据Counterpoint Research数据，2022年Q2，苹果在高端智能手机市场仍占据着过半江山，以57%的市场份额创下iPhone自2007年以来的历史纪录，并将全球手机六成多的利润收入囊中。胡艺文这样的果粉也不会轻易抛弃苹果。虽然创新不足，但一年一度的硬件（主要是芯片）稳定更新、软件系统稳定，仍对他们有巨大的吸引力。换句话说，乔布斯时代创造的巨大势能，足以让在创新方面略显平庸的苹果帝国靠惯性继续向前滑行。但随着苹果光环褪色，知秋的寒蝉已经隐隐嗅到寒意，感知到创新乏力的后果。对于靠苹果吃饭的手机经销商吕樊而言，苹果仍然是他营收的大头，“黄牛的失败与否，不影响这一切，太阳照常升起”。靠稀缺性和时间差赚钱的黄牛们则无暇为此悲春伤秋。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。叶静跃已全力转战华为Mate 50。他告诉雪豹财经社，华为新机溢价水平一直比较稳定，目前最低配都要加价1000元，最稀有的保时捷款已被炒到了2.5万元以上，较原价（12999元）翻了近一倍。对于仍站在金字塔尖的全球顶级软硬件一体的苹果公司而言，iPhone 14不可能成为绝唱。但黄牛们暴富梦的终章，或许将为苹果躺赢的终结，奏响一段前奏。（本文人物均为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911264962,"gmtCreate":1664227237756,"gmtModify":1676537411407,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911264962","repostId":"1123049781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123049781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664191062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123049781?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 19:17","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Pressing on the future of the economy, Britain opens a \"fatal gamble\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123049781","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这一历史时刻的回声将久久盘旋在威斯敏斯特的上空。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>The British government is betting on the future of the British economy.</p><p>On Friday, the British government introduced a £45bn tax cut, the most aggressive in the country since 1972, including scrapping plans to raise corporation tax to 25%, removing the top rate of 45%, slashing stamp duty and more.</p><p>Analysts expect the subsidy and tax cuts package will cost the UK government more than £150bn over the next few years,<b>And this will be largely supported by debt issuance – the government said it would borrow an additional £72.4bn to fund the scheme.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08aebd46aba94ce07021d5989f4bcea7\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Fiscal Research Institute, a British think tank)</p><p>As Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, cheered that the UK economy was about to enter a \"new era\", there were doubts about whether this dramatic shift in UK fiscal policy would restart growth as expected, or could only, as the opposition Labour Party claimed – \"only bring the benefits to those already rich\".</p><p>Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a British think tank, believes that,<b>The so-called \"biggest tax cuts in 50 years\", without even making any effort to boost public finances; Instead, the plan appears to be about borrowing huge amounts of money at increasingly high interest rates, allowing government debt to rise unsustainably</b>。 It marked a dramatic change in the direction in which economic policy was shaped, to the point where some long-serving cabinet ministers feared a hit to the economy.</p><p>The market reacted quickly: the pound plunged to a 37-year low on Monday, and the price of the British Treasury Bond fell back-to-back. But the British government remained unmoved, and even planned to continue to increase its weight. The deputy finance minister stressed that UK government bonds are currently paid at roughly the same rate as the US and that \"the reason we implemented tax cuts is not to deal with intraday fluctuations in the currency market\".</p><p>It is a gamble between Britain and history, and the future, not only on the success of the new scheme itself, but also on the economic prospects of Britain as a whole.</p><p>Gambling against history, the traditional policy orientation is gradually drifting away</p><p>Clearly, this is a growth plan that is completely at odds with the traditional policy thinking of the UK for a long time.</p><p>The British government's conventional belief for decades has been that tax cuts should primarily benefit the relatively poor, and that borrowing should not be a regular government spending under normal circumstances.</p><p><b>Mr Kovoten reversed years of cautious approach to tax reform by many of his previous chancellors</b>These chancellors insisted on a progressive tax system. But instead, Kovoten said:</p><p>In this country, we have been indulging in a debate about redistribution for far too long. Now we need to focus on growth, not just how it is taxed and spent. Kovoten has long advocated low tax policies. He said: \"It is completely unsustainable to think that prosperity can be achieved through taxation, and to ignore the tax rate at a 70-year high, let alone what the ultimate consequences will be. The real danger lies in low growth, and the fundamental solution lies in economic growth.\" He said that although the Bank of England was in rate hike to curb inflation and cut taxes to save the economy deeply affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis was \"absolutely right\".</p><p>Within minutes of Coworten's statement in the House of Commons, Tory MPs paced the corridors of Westminster Palace in shock.<b>Supporters rallied in a rare sense of unity as a precious moment to \"break history\" and mark a break from traditional policy orientations.</b></p><p>Critics in the Conservative Party are worried that the new Prime Minister Truss is playing a dangerous \"Russian roulette\" that, if it goes wrong, will have unexpected consequences.</p><p>The repeat of another kind of history cannot be avoided</p><p>It is hard not to conjure up the 1972 Budget introduced by former UK Treasury Secretary Anthony Barber. Anthony Barber similarly introduced massive unfunded tax cuts at the time, only to lead to an overheating economy, soaring inflation, and a subsequent recession.</p><p>Anthony Barber was criticized for this, and Ted Heath, then British Prime Minister, became a negative teaching material for managing the economy. Then, as expected, Heath lost the February 1974 election.</p><p>The analysis generally believes that,<b>The 1972 Budget ended in disaster because of its severe inflationary effects, so the tax cuts introduced by the British government may not have avoided the same fate. Analysts also compared the British government's tax cuts with those introduced under Margaret Thatcher in 1988: Although the 1988 Budget boosted the economy, it also soared inflation, prompting the Bank of England to adjust interest rates to a maximum of 15% in 1989, which greatly increased the volatility of the economy.</b></p><p>But there is still a big difference between the two: the Bank of England has only exercised monetary policy after independence in 1997, and today the Treasury is responsible only for fiscal policy-taxes and spending. This means that the Bank of England can respond to such massive tax cuts by constantly tightening liquidity and rate hike. The Bank of England has signaled that it will treat inflation as a \"dragon\" to be slaughtered.</p><p>Separately, some Conservative lawmakers have criticized Truss's policies for being similar to former U.S. President Ronald Reagan. In the 1980s, Reagan accumulated a lot of debt while in office to fund his tax cuts.<b>The difference is that, unlike the pound, the US dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning the US is much less likely to have trouble finding buyers for its debt.</b></p><p>Gambling against the future, a desperate move in despair</p><p>At present, Britain's economic growth is sluggish, coupled with the energy crisis and severe inflation, people's cost of living has risen sharply. Britain's inflation rate has remained high since last winter, hitting 40-year highs from April to July this year. Many market analysts agree that the UK economy will plunge into recession before the end of the year.</p><p>Paul Johnson believes that such a large-scale government debt is simply a \"big gamble\". Money is put into an economy where inflation is still high. Only if UK economic growth \"can really keep up\" can the situation be \"controllable\".</p><p>In addition, crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the death of the Queen of England have also made the economic prospects of Britain very bleak. According to the Global Times, Ding Chun, a professor at the Institute of World Economics at Fudan University School of Economics, believes that,<b>This gloomy economic outlook is mainly related to the long \"Brexit\".</b>Due to the long duration of Brexit, the UK and the EU are still running in and connecting, and the overall world economy is facing the impact of stagflation. The UK is involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in labor shortage in the UK market, serious energy crisis and other problems, and people's livelihood is difficult.</p><p>Dominic Cummings, the mastermind of the Brexit campaign, went out of his way to stress that his idea for Brexit was not to use the newfound \"freedom\" to cut regulations massively.</p><p>But Kovoten and Truss are very different from their views. They believe that,<b>The whole point of Brexit is to allow the UK to take a different economic path. That just means cutting taxes and repealing regulations – many of which come from right here in the EU.</b></p><p>Follow the \"Iron Lady\", do you imitate others?</p><p>Truss said the other day that she wants to build a Britain where people from all over the world can show their talents, and to usher in a dynamic decade through economic growth.</p><p>From her perspective, the bold plan is both \"unexpected\" and \"reasonable\": Truss had made it clear during the campaign that she believed tax cuts were one of the best ways to boost economic growth. Only the implementation of such a deterrent strategy is central to achieving political and economic success.</p><p><b>Over the past eight years of dormancy, Truss has argued that most previous prime ministers have been too \"timid\" to shy away from the core Tory values that have the merit of allowing the economy to grow freely. Therefore, Truss has been waiting for this moment for years.</b></p><p>But acting so quickly and implementing such massive tax cuts was a huge shock to her supporters and critics alike.</p><p>On the campaign trail in July, when asked \"who is the most admired Tory prime minister\", Truss replied categorically: Margaret Thatcher. Her multiple policy orientations are seen as moving closer to Thatcher – embracing free markets and \"small government,\" simplifying taxes, \"keen\" to fight trade unions, and so on.</p><p><b>The economic woes facing Britain at this time are much the same as when Margaret Thatcher came to power. But many experts believe Truss's plan to lower taxes by increasing Treasury Bond is not \"Thatcherism\".</b></p><p>According to the Global Times, Matthew Johnson, a professor of political science at Northumbria University in the UK, said that Mrs. Thatcher not only had a clear and coherent political vision, but also had the wisdom and political ability to translate relevant vision into clear policy, which Truss did not possess. The British media argued that Truss's impersonation of Mrs Thatcher was engaging in a \"political role-play\" only to use Mrs Thatcher's political legacy to gain more support within the Conservative Party.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pressing on the future of the economy, Britain opens a \"fatal gamble\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPressing on the future of the economy, Britain opens a \"fatal gamble\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-26 19:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>The British government is betting on the future of the British economy.</p><p>On Friday, the British government introduced a £45bn tax cut, the most aggressive in the country since 1972, including scrapping plans to raise corporation tax to 25%, removing the top rate of 45%, slashing stamp duty and more.</p><p>Analysts expect the subsidy and tax cuts package will cost the UK government more than £150bn over the next few years,<b>And this will be largely supported by debt issuance – the government said it would borrow an additional £72.4bn to fund the scheme.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08aebd46aba94ce07021d5989f4bcea7\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Fiscal Research Institute, a British think tank)</p><p>As Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, cheered that the UK economy was about to enter a \"new era\", there were doubts about whether this dramatic shift in UK fiscal policy would restart growth as expected, or could only, as the opposition Labour Party claimed – \"only bring the benefits to those already rich\".</p><p>Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a British think tank, believes that,<b>The so-called \"biggest tax cuts in 50 years\", without even making any effort to boost public finances; Instead, the plan appears to be about borrowing huge amounts of money at increasingly high interest rates, allowing government debt to rise unsustainably</b>。 It marked a dramatic change in the direction in which economic policy was shaped, to the point where some long-serving cabinet ministers feared a hit to the economy.</p><p>The market reacted quickly: the pound plunged to a 37-year low on Monday, and the price of the British Treasury Bond fell back-to-back. But the British government remained unmoved, and even planned to continue to increase its weight. The deputy finance minister stressed that UK government bonds are currently paid at roughly the same rate as the US and that \"the reason we implemented tax cuts is not to deal with intraday fluctuations in the currency market\".</p><p>It is a gamble between Britain and history, and the future, not only on the success of the new scheme itself, but also on the economic prospects of Britain as a whole.</p><p>Gambling against history, the traditional policy orientation is gradually drifting away</p><p>Clearly, this is a growth plan that is completely at odds with the traditional policy thinking of the UK for a long time.</p><p>The British government's conventional belief for decades has been that tax cuts should primarily benefit the relatively poor, and that borrowing should not be a regular government spending under normal circumstances.</p><p><b>Mr Kovoten reversed years of cautious approach to tax reform by many of his previous chancellors</b>These chancellors insisted on a progressive tax system. But instead, Kovoten said:</p><p>In this country, we have been indulging in a debate about redistribution for far too long. Now we need to focus on growth, not just how it is taxed and spent. Kovoten has long advocated low tax policies. He said: \"It is completely unsustainable to think that prosperity can be achieved through taxation, and to ignore the tax rate at a 70-year high, let alone what the ultimate consequences will be. The real danger lies in low growth, and the fundamental solution lies in economic growth.\" He said that although the Bank of England was in rate hike to curb inflation and cut taxes to save the economy deeply affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis was \"absolutely right\".</p><p>Within minutes of Coworten's statement in the House of Commons, Tory MPs paced the corridors of Westminster Palace in shock.<b>Supporters rallied in a rare sense of unity as a precious moment to \"break history\" and mark a break from traditional policy orientations.</b></p><p>Critics in the Conservative Party are worried that the new Prime Minister Truss is playing a dangerous \"Russian roulette\" that, if it goes wrong, will have unexpected consequences.</p><p>The repeat of another kind of history cannot be avoided</p><p>It is hard not to conjure up the 1972 Budget introduced by former UK Treasury Secretary Anthony Barber. Anthony Barber similarly introduced massive unfunded tax cuts at the time, only to lead to an overheating economy, soaring inflation, and a subsequent recession.</p><p>Anthony Barber was criticized for this, and Ted Heath, then British Prime Minister, became a negative teaching material for managing the economy. Then, as expected, Heath lost the February 1974 election.</p><p>The analysis generally believes that,<b>The 1972 Budget ended in disaster because of its severe inflationary effects, so the tax cuts introduced by the British government may not have avoided the same fate. Analysts also compared the British government's tax cuts with those introduced under Margaret Thatcher in 1988: Although the 1988 Budget boosted the economy, it also soared inflation, prompting the Bank of England to adjust interest rates to a maximum of 15% in 1989, which greatly increased the volatility of the economy.</b></p><p>But there is still a big difference between the two: the Bank of England has only exercised monetary policy after independence in 1997, and today the Treasury is responsible only for fiscal policy-taxes and spending. This means that the Bank of England can respond to such massive tax cuts by constantly tightening liquidity and rate hike. The Bank of England has signaled that it will treat inflation as a \"dragon\" to be slaughtered.</p><p>Separately, some Conservative lawmakers have criticized Truss's policies for being similar to former U.S. President Ronald Reagan. In the 1980s, Reagan accumulated a lot of debt while in office to fund his tax cuts.<b>The difference is that, unlike the pound, the US dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning the US is much less likely to have trouble finding buyers for its debt.</b></p><p>Gambling against the future, a desperate move in despair</p><p>At present, Britain's economic growth is sluggish, coupled with the energy crisis and severe inflation, people's cost of living has risen sharply. Britain's inflation rate has remained high since last winter, hitting 40-year highs from April to July this year. Many market analysts agree that the UK economy will plunge into recession before the end of the year.</p><p>Paul Johnson believes that such a large-scale government debt is simply a \"big gamble\". Money is put into an economy where inflation is still high. Only if UK economic growth \"can really keep up\" can the situation be \"controllable\".</p><p>In addition, crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the death of the Queen of England have also made the economic prospects of Britain very bleak. According to the Global Times, Ding Chun, a professor at the Institute of World Economics at Fudan University School of Economics, believes that,<b>This gloomy economic outlook is mainly related to the long \"Brexit\".</b>Due to the long duration of Brexit, the UK and the EU are still running in and connecting, and the overall world economy is facing the impact of stagflation. The UK is involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in labor shortage in the UK market, serious energy crisis and other problems, and people's livelihood is difficult.</p><p>Dominic Cummings, the mastermind of the Brexit campaign, went out of his way to stress that his idea for Brexit was not to use the newfound \"freedom\" to cut regulations massively.</p><p>But Kovoten and Truss are very different from their views. They believe that,<b>The whole point of Brexit is to allow the UK to take a different economic path. That just means cutting taxes and repealing regulations – many of which come from right here in the EU.</b></p><p>Follow the \"Iron Lady\", do you imitate others?</p><p>Truss said the other day that she wants to build a Britain where people from all over the world can show their talents, and to usher in a dynamic decade through economic growth.</p><p>From her perspective, the bold plan is both \"unexpected\" and \"reasonable\": Truss had made it clear during the campaign that she believed tax cuts were one of the best ways to boost economic growth. Only the implementation of such a deterrent strategy is central to achieving political and economic success.</p><p><b>Over the past eight years of dormancy, Truss has argued that most previous prime ministers have been too \"timid\" to shy away from the core Tory values that have the merit of allowing the economy to grow freely. Therefore, Truss has been waiting for this moment for years.</b></p><p>But acting so quickly and implementing such massive tax cuts was a huge shock to her supporters and critics alike.</p><p>On the campaign trail in July, when asked \"who is the most admired Tory prime minister\", Truss replied categorically: Margaret Thatcher. Her multiple policy orientations are seen as moving closer to Thatcher – embracing free markets and \"small government,\" simplifying taxes, \"keen\" to fight trade unions, and so on.</p><p><b>The economic woes facing Britain at this time are much the same as when Margaret Thatcher came to power. But many experts believe Truss's plan to lower taxes by increasing Treasury Bond is not \"Thatcherism\".</b></p><p>According to the Global Times, Matthew Johnson, a professor of political science at Northumbria University in the UK, said that Mrs. Thatcher not only had a clear and coherent political vision, but also had the wisdom and political ability to translate relevant vision into clear policy, which Truss did not possess. The British media argued that Truss's impersonation of Mrs Thatcher was engaging in a \"political role-play\" only to use Mrs Thatcher's political legacy to gain more support within the Conservative Party.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671179\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60779518d8b54ddaf209f95e2dfa6d12","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671179","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1123049781","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳英国政府押上了英国经济的未来。上周五，英国政府出台了一项规模达450亿英镑的减税措施，是自1972年以来英国最激进的减税方案，包括取消将公司税上调至25%的计划、取消45%的最高税率、大幅削减印花税等等。分析人士预计，补贴和减税一揽子计划将使英国政府在未来几年花费超过1500亿英镑，而这将主要由发债支持——政府表示将额外借入724亿英镑来为该计划提供资金。（来源：英国智库财政研究所）在英国财政大臣夸西·科沃滕（Kwasi Kwarteng）为英国经济即将进入“新时代”欢呼之际，人们却怀疑，英国财政政策这一戏剧性的转变是否会像预期的那样重启经济增长，或者只能像反对党工党声称的那样——“只把好处带给那些已经很富有的人”。英国智库财政研究所所长 Paul Johnson 认为，所谓“50年来规模最大的减税计划”，甚至没有做出任何努力来增加公共财政；相反，该计划似乎是要以越来越高的利率借入大量资金，让政府债务不可持续地增加。这标志着经济政策的制定方向发生了巨大变化，以至于一些任职时间较长的内阁部长担心经济受到打击。市场迅速做出了反应：英镑汇率周一暴跌至37年的低点，英国国债价格连续下挫。但英国政府岿然不动，甚至打算继续加码。英国副财长强调英国政府债券的支付利率目前与美国大致相同，并且“我们实施减税的原因不是为了应对汇市盘中的波动”。这是一场英国与历史、与未来的赌博，押注的不仅是新计划能否成功本身，还有整个英国的经济前景。与历史对赌，传统政策取向渐行渐远显然，这是一项完全与英国长期传统政策思维相悖的增长计划。英国政府几十年来的传统观念是，减税应主要惠及相对贫困的群体，并且在正常情况下不应将借款作为政府的日常支出。科沃滕一改诸多前任财政大臣多年来对税收改革小心翼翼的态度，这些财政大臣坚持主张累进税制。但科沃滕却表示：在这个国家，我们沉溺于一场关于再分配的争论已经太久了。现在我们需要关注增长，而不仅仅是如何征税和支出。长期以来，科沃滕一直主张低税政策，他说：“认为可以通过征税实现繁荣发展，而对处于70年高位的税率水平置之不理，这种想法才是完全不可持续的，更不知最终会带来怎样的后果。真正的危险在于低增长，根本的解决方式在于经济增长。”他表示，尽管英国央行在加息以抑制通胀，减税以拯救深受新冠疫情和能源危机影响的经济“一点儿都没错”。在科沃滕在下议院发表声明后的几分钟内，保守党议员们震惊地在威斯敏斯特宫的走廊里踱步。支持者们难得地团结一致了起来，认为这是一个“打破历史”的珍贵时刻，标志着与传统政策取向的决裂。保守党中的批评人士则十分担心新任首相特拉斯在进行一场危险的“俄罗斯轮盘赌”，一旦出了差错，将会带来始料未及的后果。无法避免另一种历史的重演这很难不让人联想到前英国财政部长 Anthony Barber 在1972年出台的预算案。Anthony Barber 当时同样推出了大规模的无资金支持的减税措施，却导致了经济过热、通胀飙升以及随之而来的经济衰退。Anthony Barber 因此被人诟病，而时任英国首相的 Ted Heath 也成为了管理经济的反面教材。后来，Heath 果然在1974年2月的选举中落败。分析普遍认为，1972年的预算案最终以灾难收场也是因为其严重的通胀效应，因此此次英国政府推出的减税措施可能也无法避免相同的命运。分析人士还将英国政府此次减税方案与1988年撒切尔夫人执政时期推出的减税措施进行了对比：尽管1988年预算案提振了经济，但也令通胀飙升，促使英国央行在1989年将利率最高调整至了15%，使经济的波动性大大加剧。但二者之间仍有一个很大的区别：英国央行自1997年独立后才行使货币政策，如今的财政部只负责财政政策——税收和支出。这意味着，英国央行可以通过不断收紧流动性和加息对如此大规模的减税计划做出应对。英国央行已经发出信号，会将通胀视为一条待屠宰的“恶龙”。另外，一些保守党议员批评特拉斯的政策与前美国总统罗纳德·里根相似。上世纪80年代，里根在任时积累了大量债务，为其减税计划提供资金。不同之处在于，与英镑不同，美元是全球储备货币，这意味着美国为其债务寻找买家时遇到困难的可能性要小得多。与未来对赌，绝望中的孤注一掷目前，英国经济增长乏力，加上能源危机和严重通胀，民众生活成本陡增。去年冬天以来，英国通胀率居高不下，今年4月至7月已接连创下40年来新高。许多市场分析师都认为，英国经济将在今年年底前陷入衰退。Paul Johnson 认为，如此大规模的政府负债简直就是一次“大赌博”，钱被投进一个通胀仍然高企的经济里，只有英国经济增长“真的能跟上”，局面才是“可控的”。另外，俄乌冲突和英国女王去世等危机也使得英国经济前景十分黯淡。据环球时报报道，复旦大学经济学院世界经济研究所教授丁纯认为，这种经济前景的黯淡主要跟漫长的“脱欧”有关系。由于脱欧时间持续较长，英国跟欧盟仍然还在磨合、衔接中，加上整体世界经济面临滞胀的冲击，英国卷入俄乌冲突，造成英国市场劳动力短缺、能源危机严重等问题，民生维艰。脱欧运动的策划者多米尼克·卡明斯不厌其烦地强调，他对英国退欧的想法并不是利用新获得的“自由”来大规模削减法规。但科沃滕和特拉斯与其观点截然不同。他们认为，脱欧的全部意义就是在于允许英国走上一条不同的经济道路。这正意味着削减税收和废除法规——其中许多法规就来自欧盟。追随“铁娘子”，是否东施效颦？特拉斯在前几日称，她要建设一个世界各地的人都能施展才能的英国，要通过经济增长使英国迎来充满活力的十年。从她的视角来看，这一大胆的计划既在“意料之外”，又在“情理之中”：特拉斯在竞选期间曾明确表示，她认为减税是促进经济增长的最佳方式之一。只有实施如此具有威慑力的策略，才是实现政治和经济成功的核心。在过去蛰伏的八年里，特拉斯认为大多数前任首相都太过“胆小”，对保守党的核心价值观避之不及，而这些价值观的优点在于让经济得以自由发展。因此，特拉斯已经为这一刻等候多年。但如此迅速地采取行动并实施如此大规模的减税，对她的支持者和批评者来说都是一种巨大的冲击。在7月的竞选活动中，在被问及“最敬仰的保守党首相是谁”时，特拉斯斩钉截铁地回答称：玛格丽特·撒切尔。她的多种政策取向都被认为是在向撒切尔夫人靠拢——拥护自由市场和“小政府”、简化税收制度、“热衷于”与工会斗争等等。英国此时面临的经济困境，很像当年撒切尔夫人上台时的情况。但很多专家认为，特拉斯通过增加国债以降低税收的计划并不是“撒切尔主义”。据环球时报报道，英国诺森比亚大学政治学教授马修·约翰逊表示，撒切尔夫人不仅拥有清晰且连贯的政治愿景，而且其智慧和政治能力能将相关愿景转化为清晰的政策，而特拉斯不具备这样的素质。英国媒体认为，特拉斯对撒切尔夫人的模仿是在进行“政治角色扮演”，目的只是利用撒切尔夫人的政治遗产在保守党内部获得更多支持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913668659,"gmtCreate":1663981873172,"gmtModify":1676537373995,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913668659","repostId":"1123410633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123410633","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663932651,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123410633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 19:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | What happened? The stock market, crude oil, and gold prices accelerated their decline.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123410633","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 23, futures for all three major U.S. stock indexes declined, with Dow Jones futures down 1.27% as of press time. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.53%; S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Goldman Sachs has finally gone long! The target price for US stocks has been significantly lowered, with a further 4% drop expected by the end of the year.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Thursday, Eastern Time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The company lowered its year-end price target for the S&P 500 from its previous forecast of 4,300 points to 3,600 points, citing a significant shift in the outlook for rising interest rates that would drag down U.S. stock valuations. This means that Goldman Sachs expects US stocks to continue to fall by more than 4% for the remainder of the year.</p><p><b>Pre-market price</b></p><p>Star tech stocks in the US stock market all fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>AMD fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Both fell by more than 1%;</p><p>U.S. cruise stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian Cruises</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>It fell by more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. oil stocks generally fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">Apache</a>It fell by more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. precious metals stocks generally fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">Harmony Gold</a>It fell nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">Kaneda</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">Cordelen Mining</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">Hekla Mining</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">Barrick Gold</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">Royal Gold</a>It fell by more than 2%;</p><p>US blockchain-related stocks generally fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>It fell more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Digital Marathon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>It fell by more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after previously denying reports that it was considering exiting the US market;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 4% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Previous research reports indicated that the new XPeng G9 does not have a significant competitive advantage compared to its peers, and its valuation will be under pressure if competition intensifies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>The stock rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading after reports that several potential buyers were considering acquiring the company.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell more than 3% in pre-market trading, with a Q4 gross margin of 10.18%, lower than the same period last year.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indices fell across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX 30 index was down 2.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 2.34%, and the French CAC40 fell 2.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell sharply. As of press time, WTI crude oil was down 3.47% at $80.59 per barrel. Brent crude fell 3.06% to $87.69 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>gold</b></p><p>Gold futures continued to decline, falling 1.76% to $1,651.5 per ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | What happened? The stock market, crude oil, and gold prices accelerated their decline.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | What happened? The stock market, crude oil, and gold prices accelerated their decline.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-23 19:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 23, futures for all three major U.S. stock indexes declined, with Dow Jones futures down 1.27% as of press time. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.53%; S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Goldman Sachs has finally gone long! The target price for US stocks has been significantly lowered, with a further 4% drop expected by the end of the year.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Thursday, Eastern Time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The company lowered its year-end price target for the S&P 500 from its previous forecast of 4,300 points to 3,600 points, citing a significant shift in the outlook for rising interest rates that would drag down U.S. stock valuations. This means that Goldman Sachs expects US stocks to continue to fall by more than 4% for the remainder of the year.</p><p><b>Pre-market price</b></p><p>Star tech stocks in the US stock market all fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>AMD fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Both fell by more than 1%;</p><p>U.S. cruise stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian Cruises</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>It fell by more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. oil stocks generally fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">Apache</a>It fell by more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. precious metals stocks generally fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">Harmony Gold</a>It fell nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">Kaneda</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">Cordelen Mining</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">Hekla Mining</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">Barrick Gold</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">Royal Gold</a>It fell by more than 2%;</p><p>US blockchain-related stocks generally fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>It fell more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Digital Marathon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>It fell by more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after previously denying reports that it was considering exiting the US market;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 4% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Previous research reports indicated that the new XPeng G9 does not have a significant competitive advantage compared to its peers, and its valuation will be under pressure if competition intensifies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>The stock rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading after reports that several potential buyers were considering acquiring the company.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell more than 3% in pre-market trading, with a Q4 gross margin of 10.18%, lower than the same period last year.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indices fell across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX 30 index was down 2.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 2.34%, and the French CAC40 fell 2.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell sharply. As of press time, WTI crude oil was down 3.47% at $80.59 per barrel. Brent crude fell 3.06% to $87.69 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>gold</b></p><p>Gold futures continued to decline, falling 1.76% to $1,651.5 per ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123410633","content_text":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周四，高盛将标普500指数的年底目标价从此前预测的4300点下调至3600点，称利率上行前景的大幅转变将拖累美股估值。这意味着高盛预计在今年剩余的时间内，美股还要继续下跌超4%。盘前行情美股明星科技股盘前齐挫，特斯拉、奈飞、英伟达、AMD跌超2%，苹果、亚马逊、谷歌A、微软均跌超1%；美股邮轮股盘前走低，嘉年华邮轮跌超5%，挪威邮轮跌超4%，皇家加勒比邮轮跌超3%；美股石油股盘前普跌，英国石油跌超5%，卡隆石油跌超4%，西方石油、阿帕契跌超3%；美股贵金属板块盘前普跌，哈莫尼黄金跌近8%，金田、科尔黛伦矿业跌超5%，赫克拉矿业跌超4%，纽曼矿业、巴里克黄金、皇家黄金跌超2%；美股区块链概念股普跌，Riot Blockchain跌超7%，Coinbase、Marathon Digital、MicroStrategy跌超4%；瑞士信贷盘前跌超8%，此前否认有关其考虑退出美国市场的报道；小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%，瑞银此前研报表示，小鹏新车G9与同业比无明显竞争优势，若竞争加剧估值将受压；Cano Health盘前涨近6%，传多个潜在买家考虑收购公司；好市多盘前跌逾3%，Q4毛利率10.18%，低于去年同期。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.74%，英国富时100跌2.34%，法国CAC40跌2.46%。原油原油期货大幅走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌3.47%，报80.59美元/桶；布伦特原油跌3.06%，报87.69美元/桶。黄金黄金期货持续下挫，截止发稿，跌1.76%，报1651.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919040011,"gmtCreate":1663716090234,"gmtModify":1676537319877,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919040011","repostId":"2269990031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269990031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663709371,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269990031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 05:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines | \"Dr. Doomsday\" Says US Stocks Have 40% Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269990031","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。　　美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。　　自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。　　拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to be released, and the unemployment rate data may break a new high.</b><b>2. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: After \"taking the lead,\" more rate hike will follow.</b><b>3. \"Dr. Doomsday\" predicts a \"long and severe\" global recession by the end of the year, with US stocks potentially plummeting by 40%.</b><b>4. Inflation and rate hike severely impact the stock market; factor investment methods regain their former glory.</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO criticizes: Congress's demands are too harsh; the US economy is a \"double-edged sword.\"</b><b>6. The German government will nationalize natural gas giant Uniper with a historic aid agreement.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3640c165bbab35a063886f0264187e4a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to be released, and the unemployment rate data may break a new high.</b></p><p>When the dot plot is released on Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will present the economic warnings they have issued in recent weeks in numerical form, and forecasts for interest rates and unemployment are expected to be significantly revised upward.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is holding a two-day policy meeting in Washington starting Tuesday, and officials are expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time.</p><p>This means that the benchmark interest rate will rise to its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The next phase of the tightening cycle will bring greater economic risks, which may be reflected in their revised economic forecasts.</p><p>Since the last round of economic forecasts was released in June, U.S. inflation has barely cooled, prompting the Federal Reserve to take a more aggressive stance. They are also increasingly skeptical of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, which may be part of the reason why they are now inclined to slow economic activity further.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>\"Of course, rising interest rates will have a greater impact on unemployment,\" said Brett Ryan, a senior U.S. economist in New York. \"We expect the unemployment rate to be close to 4.5% in the Fed's new forecast, and they will still mention the prospect of a 'soft landing,' but they will also hint at a high risk of recession.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3452a796edd35bc84caa0933386c85fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: After \"taking the lead,\" more rate hike will follow.</b></p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that borrowing costs will rise further in the coming months after the central bank took the lead in implementing \"the fastest interest rate adjustment in our history.\"</p><p>“We have taken significant steps toward normalizing monetary policy by implementing a front-line rate hike,” Lagarde said in a speech in Frankfurt on Tuesday evening. \"We expect further rate hike in the next few meetings.\"</p><p>After following the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate hike this month, European Central Bank officials are debating the next steps. While they agree that further action is needed to control record inflation, they disagree on how aggressive it should be as soaring energy costs push Europe into recession.</p><p>Estonian Central Bank Governor Madis Muller spoke earlier Tuesday, urging the European Central Bank to take “strong and decisive enough” action, saying current interest rates are still far from limiting the eurozone’s economic expansion. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that slowing economic growth is not enough to ease inflation.</p><p>Lagarde reiterated that the European Central Bank will make decisions at each meeting, and any action will depend on future economic data. “Where interest rates ultimately fall, and the scale of each of our steps, will depend on how the inflation outlook evolves,” she said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba01422e545fe48e009ec9973e1980f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Dr. Doom\" predicts a \"long and severe\" global recession by the end of the year, with US stocks potentially plummeting by 40%.</b></p><p>Economist Roubini, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, believes that the United States and the world will experience a “long and severe” recession at the end of 2022 and remain mired in it throughout 2023, while the S&P 500 index will also fall sharply.</p><p>“Even in a mild, ordinary recession, the S&P 500 could fall 30%,” Roubini, chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, said in an interview on Monday, adding that U.S. stocks could plunge 40% in what he expects to be a “real hard landing.”</p><p>Roubini's foresight of the bursting of the 2007-2008 housing bubble earned him the nickname \"Dr. Doomsday.\" He stated that those who believe the United States will only experience a shallow recession should look at the high debt ratio between businesses and the government. As interest rates rise and debt repayment costs increase, \"many institutions, residents, businesses, banks, and shadow banks will go bankrupt,\" he said. \"So then we'll know who's swimming naked.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243978df13130ee8cdbe679db71b0f4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation and rate hike severely impact the stock market; investment methods regain their former glory.</b></p><p>Ten years east of the river, ten years west. The stock market is experiencing its worst year since the global financial crisis, giving once-revolutionary quantitative investors a chance to regain their former glory and wash away the humiliation they suffered in the era of cheap money.</p><p>Machine-driven funds, which trade based on certain characteristics of stocks (such as how cheap they are, how fast they are rising, etc.), have worked repeatedly this year. This is what is called factor investing. In contrast, neither actively managed hedge funds nor short-term speculators were able to escape the market crash.</p><p>With historically high inflation triggering central bank rate hike, the pattern of large technology stocks leading the gains came to an abrupt end, and the extreme market trend is reversing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>Data shows that ultra-high market capitalization companies are no longer the dominant force, and the gap between winners and losers in the S&P 500 index has reached its largest level in more than a decade.</p><p>All of this has inspired rules-based funds. The strategy of buying low-volatility or high-momentum stocks is profitable, and value stocks are also continuing their post-pandemic comeback.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>JPMorgan Chase CEO criticizes: Congress's demands are too harsh; the US economy is a \"two-faced\" entity.</b></p><p>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon took aim at \"increased capital requirements\" ahead of two congressional hearings this week.</p><p>This Wednesday and Thursday, Dimon will be with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>The heads of major banks such as Citigroup attended a congressional hearing on consumer banking operations. In a prepared speech, he praised his company's role in the global economy and warned that \"arbitrarily increasing capital requirements\" could be harmful.</p><p>“The United States’ continued increase in capital requirements for large banks poses significant economic risks in itself, especially when it does not reflect actual risks,” Dimon wrote. \"This is simply tying up regulated banks at the wrong time, resulting in their capital being restricted, which is not conducive to their expansion of businesses such as lending during times of national economic hardship.\"</p><p>JPMorgan Chase was asked to suspend share buybacks in July to quickly meet higher capital requirements related to the results of more stringent stress tests. Dimon has long criticized the increase in capital requirements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8458711ed01911a4418e3128dedcc4d0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The German government will nationalize natural gas giant Uniper in a historic aid deal.</b></p><p>The German government plans to target natural gas giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNPPY\">Uniper SE</a>The injection of approximately 8 billion euros ($8 billion) in capital will nationalize the company in a historic agreement while preventing the collapse of the country's energy sector.</p><p>Uniper confirmed on Tuesday that it is in final discussions with the government on a plan that includes an 8 billion euro capital increase, fully subscribed by the government. The German government will also acquire shares in its major shareholder, Finland's Fortum Oyj.</p><p>Uniper is the largest buyer of Russian natural gas in Germany and is at the heart of the energy crisis. Given Russia's restrictions on energy supplies to Europe, the government is under pressure to act if Uniper goes bankrupt, which could have repercussions across all sectors of the German economy and potentially threaten fuel supplies.</p><p>Uniper's stock price rose 3%. Fortnum's share price jumped 9.5%, and trading in the stock was subsequently suspended by the exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines | \"Dr. Doomsday\" Says US Stocks Have 40% Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines | \"Dr. Doomsday\" Says US Stocks Have 40% Downside\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-21 05:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to be released, and the unemployment rate data may break a new high.</b><b>2. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: After \"taking the lead,\" more rate hike will follow.</b><b>3. \"Dr. Doomsday\" predicts a \"long and severe\" global recession by the end of the year, with US stocks potentially plummeting by 40%.</b><b>4. Inflation and rate hike severely impact the stock market; factor investment methods regain their former glory.</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO criticizes: Congress's demands are too harsh; the US economy is a \"double-edged sword.\"</b><b>6. The German government will nationalize natural gas giant Uniper with a historic aid agreement.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3640c165bbab35a063886f0264187e4a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to be released, and the unemployment rate data may break a new high.</b></p><p>When the dot plot is released on Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will present the economic warnings they have issued in recent weeks in numerical form, and forecasts for interest rates and unemployment are expected to be significantly revised upward.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is holding a two-day policy meeting in Washington starting Tuesday, and officials are expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time.</p><p>This means that the benchmark interest rate will rise to its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The next phase of the tightening cycle will bring greater economic risks, which may be reflected in their revised economic forecasts.</p><p>Since the last round of economic forecasts was released in June, U.S. inflation has barely cooled, prompting the Federal Reserve to take a more aggressive stance. They are also increasingly skeptical of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, which may be part of the reason why they are now inclined to slow economic activity further.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>\"Of course, rising interest rates will have a greater impact on unemployment,\" said Brett Ryan, a senior U.S. economist in New York. \"We expect the unemployment rate to be close to 4.5% in the Fed's new forecast, and they will still mention the prospect of a 'soft landing,' but they will also hint at a high risk of recession.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3452a796edd35bc84caa0933386c85fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: After \"taking the lead,\" more rate hike will follow.</b></p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that borrowing costs will rise further in the coming months after the central bank took the lead in implementing \"the fastest interest rate adjustment in our history.\"</p><p>“We have taken significant steps toward normalizing monetary policy by implementing a front-line rate hike,” Lagarde said in a speech in Frankfurt on Tuesday evening. \"We expect further rate hike in the next few meetings.\"</p><p>After following the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate hike this month, European Central Bank officials are debating the next steps. While they agree that further action is needed to control record inflation, they disagree on how aggressive it should be as soaring energy costs push Europe into recession.</p><p>Estonian Central Bank Governor Madis Muller spoke earlier Tuesday, urging the European Central Bank to take “strong and decisive enough” action, saying current interest rates are still far from limiting the eurozone’s economic expansion. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that slowing economic growth is not enough to ease inflation.</p><p>Lagarde reiterated that the European Central Bank will make decisions at each meeting, and any action will depend on future economic data. “Where interest rates ultimately fall, and the scale of each of our steps, will depend on how the inflation outlook evolves,” she said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba01422e545fe48e009ec9973e1980f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Dr. Doom\" predicts a \"long and severe\" global recession by the end of the year, with US stocks potentially plummeting by 40%.</b></p><p>Economist Roubini, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, believes that the United States and the world will experience a “long and severe” recession at the end of 2022 and remain mired in it throughout 2023, while the S&P 500 index will also fall sharply.</p><p>“Even in a mild, ordinary recession, the S&P 500 could fall 30%,” Roubini, chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, said in an interview on Monday, adding that U.S. stocks could plunge 40% in what he expects to be a “real hard landing.”</p><p>Roubini's foresight of the bursting of the 2007-2008 housing bubble earned him the nickname \"Dr. Doomsday.\" He stated that those who believe the United States will only experience a shallow recession should look at the high debt ratio between businesses and the government. As interest rates rise and debt repayment costs increase, \"many institutions, residents, businesses, banks, and shadow banks will go bankrupt,\" he said. \"So then we'll know who's swimming naked.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243978df13130ee8cdbe679db71b0f4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation and rate hike severely impact the stock market; investment methods regain their former glory.</b></p><p>Ten years east of the river, ten years west. The stock market is experiencing its worst year since the global financial crisis, giving once-revolutionary quantitative investors a chance to regain their former glory and wash away the humiliation they suffered in the era of cheap money.</p><p>Machine-driven funds, which trade based on certain characteristics of stocks (such as how cheap they are, how fast they are rising, etc.), have worked repeatedly this year. This is what is called factor investing. In contrast, neither actively managed hedge funds nor short-term speculators were able to escape the market crash.</p><p>With historically high inflation triggering central bank rate hike, the pattern of large technology stocks leading the gains came to an abrupt end, and the extreme market trend is reversing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>Data shows that ultra-high market capitalization companies are no longer the dominant force, and the gap between winners and losers in the S&P 500 index has reached its largest level in more than a decade.</p><p>All of this has inspired rules-based funds. The strategy of buying low-volatility or high-momentum stocks is profitable, and value stocks are also continuing their post-pandemic comeback.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>JPMorgan Chase CEO criticizes: Congress's demands are too harsh; the US economy is a \"two-faced\" entity.</b></p><p>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon took aim at \"increased capital requirements\" ahead of two congressional hearings this week.</p><p>This Wednesday and Thursday, Dimon will be with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>The heads of major banks such as Citigroup attended a congressional hearing on consumer banking operations. In a prepared speech, he praised his company's role in the global economy and warned that \"arbitrarily increasing capital requirements\" could be harmful.</p><p>“The United States’ continued increase in capital requirements for large banks poses significant economic risks in itself, especially when it does not reflect actual risks,” Dimon wrote. \"This is simply tying up regulated banks at the wrong time, resulting in their capital being restricted, which is not conducive to their expansion of businesses such as lending during times of national economic hardship.\"</p><p>JPMorgan Chase was asked to suspend share buybacks in July to quickly meet higher capital requirements related to the results of more stringent stress tests. Dimon has long criticized the increase in capital requirements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8458711ed01911a4418e3128dedcc4d0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The German government will nationalize natural gas giant Uniper in a historic aid deal.</b></p><p>The German government plans to target natural gas giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNPPY\">Uniper SE</a>The injection of approximately 8 billion euros ($8 billion) in capital will nationalize the company in a historic agreement while preventing the collapse of the country's energy sector.</p><p>Uniper confirmed on Tuesday that it is in final discussions with the government on a plan that includes an 8 billion euro capital increase, fully subscribed by the government. The German government will also acquire shares in its major shareholder, Finland's Fortum Oyj.</p><p>Uniper is the largest buyer of Russian natural gas in Germany and is at the heart of the energy crisis. Given Russia's restrictions on energy supplies to Europe, the government is under pressure to act if Uniper goes bankrupt, which could have repercussions across all sectors of the German economy and potentially threaten fuel supplies.</p><p>Uniper's stock price rose 3%. Fortnum's share price jumped 9.5%, and trading in the stock was subsequently suspended by the exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2269990031","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 2、欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息3、“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%4、通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光5、摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”6、德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。这意味着基准利率将升至2008年金融危机前以来的最高水平。紧缩周期的下一阶段将带来更大的经济风险，这可能会在他们的修订后的经济预测中得到反映。自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。他们也越来越怀疑失业率和通胀率之间的关系，这可能是他们现在倾向于让经济活动进一步放缓的部分原因。德意志银行驻纽约高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan表示，“当然，利率上升将对失业产生更大的影响。我们预计在美联储的新预测中，失业率将接近4.5%，他们仍然会提到‘软着陆’前景，但也会暗示其中有很高的经济衰退风险。”欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息欧洲央行行长拉加德称，在央行靠前发力、实施了“我们历史上最快的利率调整”之后，借贷成本在未来数月还将进一步上升。“我们在货币政策正常化的道路上迈出了重大步伐，实施了靠前加息，”拉加德周二晚间在法兰克福发表演讲称。“我们预计在接下来的几次会议上会进一步加息。”在本月效仿美联储加息75个基点之后，欧洲央行官员正在激辩下一步行动。虽然他们同意需要采取进一步行动来控制创纪录的通胀，但随着能源成本飙升推动欧洲走向经济衰退，他们对应该多激进的问题存在分歧。爱沙尼亚央行行长Madis Muller周二早些时候发表讲话，敦促欧洲央行采取“足够有力和果断”的行动，称当前的利率仍远不到限制欧元区经济扩张的水平。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos周一表示，经济增长放缓不足以缓解通胀。拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。“利率最终落在何处，以及我们每一步的规模，将取决于通胀前景如何演变，”她说。“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%曾准确预测到2008年金融危机的经济学家鲁比尼认为，美国和全球将在2022年底遭遇“漫长而惨烈”的衰退并在整个2023年都深陷其中，而标普500指数也会大幅下跌。“即使在平淡的普通衰退中标普500指数也可能下跌30%，” Roubini Macro Associates董事长兼首席执行官鲁比尼周一接受采访时表示，在他预计的“真正硬着陆”中，美股可能会重挫40%。鲁比尼对2007年至2008年房地产泡沫破灭的预见使他获得了“末日博士”的绰号。他表示，认为美国只会浅衰退的人应该看看企业和政府的高负债比。随着利率上升和偿债成本增加，“许多机构、居民、企业、银行、影子银行都会完蛋，” 他说，“所以我们到时候就知道谁在裸泳了。”通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光十年河东，十年河西。股市正在经历全球金融危机以来最糟糕的一年，让曾经革命性的量化投资者有机会找回昔日的荣光，一洗他们在廉价货币时代遭受的屈辱。机器驱动的基金依据股票的一些特质（例如廉价程度、上涨速度等）进行交易操作，今年屡试不爽。这就是所谓的因子投资。相比之下，主动管理的对冲基金和短线炒家都没能躲开市场大跌。随着历史性的高通胀引发央行加息，导致大型科技股领涨的格局戛然而止，极端行情正在逆转。标普全球的数据显示，超高市值公司不再独领风骚，标普500指数成份股赢家和输家的差距也达到十多年来的最大。所有这一切都激发了基于规则的基金。买入低波动或高动量个股的策略处于盈利状态，价值股也正在延续疫后的回归。摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在本周两场国会听证会举行前将矛头指向了“资本要求提高”一事。本周三和周四，戴蒙将与美国银行、富国银行、花旗集团等主要银行的掌门人一起出席有关消费者银行业务的国会听证会。在事先准备好的讲稿中，他称赞自己的公司在全球经济中发挥的作用，并警告说“任意增加资本要求”会带来伤害。“美国对大银行持续提高资本金要求本身就构成了重大经济风险，特别是在没有反映实际风险的情况下，” Dimon写道。 “这根本是在错误的时间束缚了受监管的银行，导致它们的资本受到限制，在国家经济艰困时期不利于他们扩大放贷等业务”。摩根大通7月被要求暂停股票回购，以尽快满足与更严格压力测试结果相关的更高资本要求。戴蒙长期以来都对资本要求的提高颇有诟病。德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化德国政府计划向天然气巨头Uniper SE注入大约80亿欧元（80亿美元）资本，以历史性的协议将该公司国有化，同时防止该国能源行业崩溃。Uniper周二证实，在与政府最终商讨一份方案，方案包括80亿欧元的增资，完全由政府认购。德国政府还将购入其主要股东芬兰Fortum Oyj的股份。Uniper是德国国内俄罗斯天然气的最大买家，处在能源危机的核心。在俄罗斯限制对欧洲的能源供应这一背景下，如果Uniper破产，可能对德国经济的各个领域产生波及，并可能威胁燃料供应，因此政府面临行动压力。Uniper股价上涨3%。Fortnum股价跃升9.5%，随后股票的交易被交易所暂停。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919089860,"gmtCreate":1663713322051,"gmtModify":1676537318749,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919089860","repostId":"1159422659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159422659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663677204,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159422659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 20:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market Commentary | Where will the Fed's current rate hike end?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159422659","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"》》》盘前 | 三大期指齐挫！高盛预计联储还将加息4次关于周三的加息决定，似乎也没有什么悬念了，从期货市场来看基本上是75个基点（有20%左右概率会是100个基点，可以忽略不计），鲍威尔一定会跟着市场","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1121095051\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | All three major stock index futures fell! Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to rate hike four more times.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Regarding Wednesday's rate hike decision, there seems to be no suspense. From the perspective of the futures market, it is basically 75 basis points (there is about a 20% probability that it will be 100 basis points, which is negligible). Powell will definitely follow market expectations. Following this rate hike, the US overnight interest rate will enter the 3%-3.25% range, which is basically the same as the current 10-year interest rate. Even if the 10-year interest rate continues to rise after rate hike, the curve will definitely flatten further.</p><p>Now we need to consider another question: what is the end point of Powell's or the Fed's rate hike (4%? Or 5%?)? Will the Fed stop rate hike or even start cutting interest rates early next year, as the futures market predicts?</p><p>Those who have long followed Powell and analyzed his personality will know that he has one characteristic: a lack of confidence. His lack of confidence stems from three aspects: (1) he is not as educated as his predecessor, (2) the first president he met after taking office bullied him, and (3) he encountered the once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic and the highest inflation in decades. The insecure Powell likes to quote history when he works, occasionally mentioning \"19xx\" while speaking.</p><p>Enjoying studying history is a good thing, especially for things like investing, where \"experience + innovation\" account for half. Studying history is a very good habit. Quantitative foundations are conducting \"backtests,\" and Bridgewater will remove the data-driven nature of historical data. Powell's view of history is correct, but his repeated mention of history makes him feel a little insecure.</p><p>Looking at The history of \"Inflation\" in The United States, there is one period that has a huge impact on Powell today: The Great Inflation, which lasted 17 years from 1865 to 1882. Since World War II, inflation in the United States has generally emerged and then subsided. However, during this period, the United States experienced 17 years of high inflation. During these 17 years, the United States experienced four economic recessions, two energy crises, and price controls that only existed during wartime. This period was also the biggest failure of US macroeconomic policy. \"the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period\" (Siegel 1994).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0122ab3667e25f66a8990ad80a2aa7d0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Why do we know that this history has such a huge impact on Powell today? The Wall Street Journal discovered that Powell had great admiration for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, even quoting Volcker's autobiography, \"Keeping At It,\" in his speech. Volcker's main achievement (without discussing right or wrong) was to suppress 17 years of inflation in the United States. Although it ultimately led to a severe recession in the US economy, inflation also decreased.</p><p>According to the classic macroeconomic curve, the \"Phillips curve,\" we can only occupy one end between the two goals of inflation and employment. If maximum employment is guaranteed, inflation will be high; If inflation is required to continue, then the unemployment rate will be high. The curve looks like this.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385774ce64fc31a08eee099cde69326\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, during periods of high inflation, the Federal Reserve discovered that if inflation were allowed to remain high, the unemployment rate would eventually rise. The Phillips curve is not a fixed curve, but a curve that moves up and down. High inflation has become the main target for the Federal Reserve to deal with. Since the 2008 financial crisis, global inflation, especially in the United States, has remained low, so the Federal Reserve's goal has always been to increase employment. However, employment is currently saturated and inflation is high, so the Federal Reserve's target is automatically adjusted to combating inflation.</p><p>Why did the United States experience high inflation for 17 years back then? There are many reasons behind this, both man-made and natural economic laws, which I won't elaborate on here. However, there is an important lesson learned:<b>The longer high inflation lasts, the lower the likelihood that it will fall, creating a negative feedback loop.</b>。 From a micro perspective, it means that \"if bakers expect flour prices to continue to rise, they will raise bread prices first; if landlords expect bakers to raise bread prices, they will also raise rents.\" If everyone expects inflation to continue, then inflation will become more stubborn. Powell understood this principle, which is why he repeatedly said he wanted to eliminate societal inflation expectations.</p><p>For Powell, the goal now is to bring inflation down as soon as possible, at all costs. The longer it drags on, the more troublesome it becomes, and he absolutely doesn't care about stock market fluctuations. Moreover, he would be unhappy if the market continued to interpret him as dovish, leading to a rise in the market, because a rise in the stock market would also drive inflation (if a company's stock rose, the company's capital expenditures would also rise). Therefore, neither 4% nor 5% will be the Federal Reserve's ultimate goal. The Federal Reserve does not have an ultimate goal, and Volcker raised interest rates to 20% back then.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has canceled the dot plot this time (this thing has never been accurate, I've been saying it for several years) because it doesn't want to give the market any hope of a \"rate hike end\" and doesn't want people to see the dot plot and say, \"The Fed will stop when it has 100 basis points left\" (because the dot plot gives a long-term rate hike path). The Federal Reserve should abandon any hope that the rate hike will end—many people saw that the Fed would abolish the dot plot this time, but no one thought about the motives behind it.</p><p>Another point to note is that during the 2017 High Inflation period in the United States, inflation fluctuated many times, with the lowest point of its decline reaching 3.7%, but then inflation picked up rapidly again. I don't know if history will repeat itself this time, but in order to avoid a similar recurrence of high inflation, Powell will not dare to relax rate hike even if inflation falls to 3.7%, let alone cut interest rates.</p><p>Any expectation that the Federal Reserve will turn dovish is illusory.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market Commentary | Where will the Fed's current rate hike end?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market Commentary | Where will the Fed's current rate hike end?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-20 20:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1121095051\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | All three major stock index futures fell! Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to rate hike four more times.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Regarding Wednesday's rate hike decision, there seems to be no suspense. From the perspective of the futures market, it is basically 75 basis points (there is about a 20% probability that it will be 100 basis points, which is negligible). Powell will definitely follow market expectations. Following this rate hike, the US overnight interest rate will enter the 3%-3.25% range, which is basically the same as the current 10-year interest rate. Even if the 10-year interest rate continues to rise after rate hike, the curve will definitely flatten further.</p><p>Now we need to consider another question: what is the end point of Powell's or the Fed's rate hike (4%? Or 5%?)? Will the Fed stop rate hike or even start cutting interest rates early next year, as the futures market predicts?</p><p>Those who have long followed Powell and analyzed his personality will know that he has one characteristic: a lack of confidence. His lack of confidence stems from three aspects: (1) he is not as educated as his predecessor, (2) the first president he met after taking office bullied him, and (3) he encountered the once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic and the highest inflation in decades. The insecure Powell likes to quote history when he works, occasionally mentioning \"19xx\" while speaking.</p><p>Enjoying studying history is a good thing, especially for things like investing, where \"experience + innovation\" account for half. Studying history is a very good habit. Quantitative foundations are conducting \"backtests,\" and Bridgewater will remove the data-driven nature of historical data. Powell's view of history is correct, but his repeated mention of history makes him feel a little insecure.</p><p>Looking at The history of \"Inflation\" in The United States, there is one period that has a huge impact on Powell today: The Great Inflation, which lasted 17 years from 1865 to 1882. Since World War II, inflation in the United States has generally emerged and then subsided. However, during this period, the United States experienced 17 years of high inflation. During these 17 years, the United States experienced four economic recessions, two energy crises, and price controls that only existed during wartime. This period was also the biggest failure of US macroeconomic policy. \"the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period\" (Siegel 1994).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0122ab3667e25f66a8990ad80a2aa7d0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Why do we know that this history has such a huge impact on Powell today? The Wall Street Journal discovered that Powell had great admiration for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, even quoting Volcker's autobiography, \"Keeping At It,\" in his speech. Volcker's main achievement (without discussing right or wrong) was to suppress 17 years of inflation in the United States. Although it ultimately led to a severe recession in the US economy, inflation also decreased.</p><p>According to the classic macroeconomic curve, the \"Phillips curve,\" we can only occupy one end between the two goals of inflation and employment. If maximum employment is guaranteed, inflation will be high; If inflation is required to continue, then the unemployment rate will be high. The curve looks like this.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385774ce64fc31a08eee099cde69326\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, during periods of high inflation, the Federal Reserve discovered that if inflation were allowed to remain high, the unemployment rate would eventually rise. The Phillips curve is not a fixed curve, but a curve that moves up and down. High inflation has become the main target for the Federal Reserve to deal with. Since the 2008 financial crisis, global inflation, especially in the United States, has remained low, so the Federal Reserve's goal has always been to increase employment. However, employment is currently saturated and inflation is high, so the Federal Reserve's target is automatically adjusted to combating inflation.</p><p>Why did the United States experience high inflation for 17 years back then? There are many reasons behind this, both man-made and natural economic laws, which I won't elaborate on here. However, there is an important lesson learned:<b>The longer high inflation lasts, the lower the likelihood that it will fall, creating a negative feedback loop.</b>。 From a micro perspective, it means that \"if bakers expect flour prices to continue to rise, they will raise bread prices first; if landlords expect bakers to raise bread prices, they will also raise rents.\" If everyone expects inflation to continue, then inflation will become more stubborn. Powell understood this principle, which is why he repeatedly said he wanted to eliminate societal inflation expectations.</p><p>For Powell, the goal now is to bring inflation down as soon as possible, at all costs. The longer it drags on, the more troublesome it becomes, and he absolutely doesn't care about stock market fluctuations. Moreover, he would be unhappy if the market continued to interpret him as dovish, leading to a rise in the market, because a rise in the stock market would also drive inflation (if a company's stock rose, the company's capital expenditures would also rise). Therefore, neither 4% nor 5% will be the Federal Reserve's ultimate goal. The Federal Reserve does not have an ultimate goal, and Volcker raised interest rates to 20% back then.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has canceled the dot plot this time (this thing has never been accurate, I've been saying it for several years) because it doesn't want to give the market any hope of a \"rate hike end\" and doesn't want people to see the dot plot and say, \"The Fed will stop when it has 100 basis points left\" (because the dot plot gives a long-term rate hike path). The Federal Reserve should abandon any hope that the rate hike will end—many people saw that the Fed would abolish the dot plot this time, but no one thought about the motives behind it.</p><p>Another point to note is that during the 2017 High Inflation period in the United States, inflation fluctuated many times, with the lowest point of its decline reaching 3.7%, but then inflation picked up rapidly again. I don't know if history will repeat itself this time, but in order to avoid a similar recurrence of high inflation, Powell will not dare to relax rate hike even if inflation falls to 3.7%, let alone cut interest rates.</p><p>Any expectation that the Federal Reserve will turn dovish is illusory.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159422659","content_text":"》》》盘前 | 三大期指齐挫！高盛预计联储还将加息4次关于周三的加息决定，似乎也没有什么悬念了，从期货市场来看基本上是75个基点（有20%左右概率会是100个基点，可以忽略不计），鲍威尔一定会跟着市场的期待来走。这次加息之后，美国的隔夜利率会进入3%-3.25%区间，这个利率基本上和当下的10年利率齐平，即使10年利率在加息之后继续攀升，但是曲线一定会更加扁平化。现在需要思考另一个问题，鲍威尔或者说美联储加息的终点是什么（4%？还是5%？），是不是像期货市场预测的那样，到了明年年初美联储会停止加息甚至开始降息？长期跟踪鲍威尔以及分析过他个性的人，会知道他有一个特点，就是不太自信。他的不自信来自于3个方面：（1）学历上不如前任美联储主席，（2）上台之后遇到的第一个总统霸凌他，（3）遇到了百年不遇的新冠疫情和几十年不遇的高通胀。不自信的鲍威尔在工作的时候，喜欢引用历史，说话之间时不时会提到“19xx年”。喜欢研究历史是件好事，特别是对于投资这种“经验+创新”各占一半的事情，研究历史是一个非常好的习惯。量化基金会“回测”，桥水会去数据化历史数据。鲍威尔看历史也是对的，但是嘴上多次提到历史，就有点感觉心里底气有点不足。纵观美国的“通货膨张”历史，有一段历史对于当下的鲍威尔的影响巨大，那就是美国1865-1882年长达17年的The Great Inflation（大通胀）。美国二战后的通胀，基本上都会冒头之后就落下去，唯独这段时间，美国经历了长达17年的高通胀。在这17年时间，美国经历了4次经济衰退，2次能源危机，以及只有战争时期才有的价格管控。这段时间也是美国宏观经济政策最大的失败（the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period” (Siegel 1994).）。为什么知道这段历史对于当下的鲍威尔的影响巨大？因为华尔街日报发现鲍威尔对于前任美联储主席Paul Volcker非常推崇，就连说话都会引用Volcker的自传“Keeping At It”。而Volcker的主要政绩（不讨论对错）就是把长达17年的美国通胀给压了下去，尽管最后导致了美国经济进入了严重衰退，但是通胀也下去了。根据经典的宏观曲线“菲利普斯曲线”，在通胀和就业这两个目标之间，我们只能占到一头。如果保证最大就业，那么通胀就会高；如果要求通胀下去，那么失业率就会高。曲线的样子如下。但是大通胀时期，美联储发现，如果任由通胀高企，那么失业率最后也会上去。菲利普斯曲线不会是一条固定不变的曲线，而是会上下移动的曲线。高通胀就成了美联储要对付的主要目标。在2008年金融危机之后，全球特别是美国的通胀一直保持在低位，所以美联储的目标一直是提高就业。但是当下就业已经饱和，通胀高企，所以美联储的目标就自动调整成对付通胀。为什么当年美国有长达17年的高通胀？这后面有很多原因，有人为的，也有经济自然规律，这里就不展开了。但是有一个重要经验教训，就是如果高通胀的时间越长，那么通胀要想回落的可能性就会越低，形成一种负向反馈。从微观层面来说，就是“假设做面包的人预计面粉价格会持续上涨，那么做面包的人就会先把面包价格提起来；房东如果预期做面包的人会提高面包价格，那么也会把房租价格提起来”，大家都预期通胀会持续那么通胀就会越加顽固。鲍威尔也懂这个道理，所以他一再说要把社会的通胀预期给消灭。对于鲍威尔来说，现在的目标就是尽快把通胀给摁下去，要不惜一切代价，时间拖得越久就越麻烦，什么股市涨跌他是绝对不会理会的。而且如果市场一旦还解读他鸽派，从而市场上涨，他是不高兴的，因为股市上涨也会推动通货膨张（公司股票上涨了，那么公司的资本支出也会上升）。所以无论是4%还是5%，都不会是美联储的最终目标，美联储就没有最终目标，当年Volcker把利率加到了20%。美联储这次取消了点阵图（这东西从来就不准，我说了好几年），目的就是不想给市场任何“加息终点”的希望，不想大家看到点阵图会说“美联储还有100个基点就会停止了”（因为点阵图会给出长期加息路径）。任何期望加息到头的想法，美联储都要打消——很多人都看到了美联储这次会取消点阵图，但是没人去想后面的动机。另外一个需要注意的是，在美国的17年的大通胀时期，通胀是上上下下起伏了好多次，回落的最低点曾经到过3.7%，但是通胀后面又迅速起来了。我不知道这次历史会不会重复，但是鲍威尔会为了避免这次出现类似的高通胀反复，即使通胀跌到3.7%也不敢放松加息，更不要说降息了。任何期待美联储转鸽的想法，皆是虚妄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910162468,"gmtCreate":1663579048155,"gmtModify":1676537294558,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910162468","repostId":"1194761598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194761598","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663575168,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194761598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 16:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Unusual Movement | Bitcoin Falls Below 19,000! Concept stocks plunged in pre-market trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194761598","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，Marathon Digita","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 19, U.S. stock index futures fell across the board, with Dow Jones futures down 0.56%, Nasdaq futures down 0.72%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272b93dd9a2ae1a407cfae9ba97a9fa5\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bitcoin shares briefly fell below $19,000 each today, and US blockchain concept stocks generally declined in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Digital Marathon</a>It fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Digital Bit</a>It fell nearly 2%;</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>It fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell 1.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 1.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.43%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>The stock fell nearly 10% in pre-market trading after the company terminated deliveries of its COVID-19 vaccine to IDT Biologika.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>Shopee shares fell 2.5% in pre-market trading after the company announced it would lay off 3% of its employees in Indonesia.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two</a>The stock fell more than 5% in pre-market trading after a large number of scene videos from Grand Theft Auto 6, which had not yet been officially released, were leaked, prompting hackers to seek to negotiate a deal.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">Phunware</a>The stock fell more than 3% in pre-market trading, with the company's directors net selling 20,000 shares.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unusual Movement | Bitcoin Falls Below 19,000! Concept stocks plunged in pre-market trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnusual Movement | Bitcoin Falls Below 19,000! Concept stocks plunged in pre-market trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-19 16:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 19, U.S. stock index futures fell across the board, with Dow Jones futures down 0.56%, Nasdaq futures down 0.72%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272b93dd9a2ae1a407cfae9ba97a9fa5\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bitcoin shares briefly fell below $19,000 each today, and US blockchain concept stocks generally declined in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Digital Marathon</a>It fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Digital Bit</a>It fell nearly 2%;</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>It fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell 1.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 1.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.43%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>The stock fell nearly 10% in pre-market trading after the company terminated deliveries of its COVID-19 vaccine to IDT Biologika.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>Shopee shares fell 2.5% in pre-market trading after the company announced it would lay off 3% of its employees in Indonesia.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two</a>The stock fell more than 5% in pre-market trading after a large number of scene videos from Grand Theft Auto 6, which had not yet been officially released, were leaked, prompting hackers to seek to negotiate a deal.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">Phunware</a>The stock fell more than 3% in pre-market trading, with the company's directors net selling 20,000 shares.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BK4575":"芯片概念","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4538":"云计算","MARA":"MARA Holdings","NIO":"蔚来","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","KRKR":"36氪","MSTR.AU":"MORNINGSTAR INTL SHARES ACT","EDU.AU":"EDU HOLDINGS LTD","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4526":"热门中概股","EDU":"新东方","MSTR":"Strategy"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194761598","content_text":"9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，Marathon Digital跌超6%，Coinbase、Riot Blockchain跌超5%，MicroStrategy跌超3%，Bit Digital跌近2%；热门中概股盘前走低，36氪跌超6%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，蔚来跌1.74%，新东方跌1.6%，阿里巴巴跌1.43%；Valneva盘前跌近10%，终止对IDT Biologika交付新冠疫苗；Sea盘前跌2.5%，公司将在印尼解雇3%的Shopee员工；Take-Two盘前跌超5%，此前其尚未正式公布的《侠盗猎车手6》大量场景视频泄露，黑客寻求谈判交易；Phunware盘前跌超3%，公司董事净卖出2万股公司股份。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"EDU":0.9,"EDU.AU":0.9,"MSTR":0.9,"KRKR":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"MSTR.AU":0.9,"RIOT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937556068,"gmtCreate":1663470611555,"gmtModify":1676537275364,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937556068","repostId":"1182267949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182267949","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663413984,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182267949?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 19:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's hard to stop! These two figures this week make it even more difficult for the Federal Reserve.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182267949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"零售销售放缓之余，劳动力市场的火热让美联储加息再难有回旋余地。而长期趋势来看，核心零售销售水平的高位以及零售商利润率的扩大继续对商品通胀施加压力，推动美联储加息以冷却经济活动。劳动力市场强劲首次申请失业金人数显示，美国劳动市场正在复苏。野村证券认为，在预期通胀有意义地向目标下降之前，美联储需要冷却劳动力市场。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The possibility of a soft landing has vanished. With retail sales slowing, the booming labor market has left the Federal Reserve's rate hike with little room for maneuver.</p><p>In Nomura Securities' latest report this Thursday, analysts pointed out that the current weakness in U.S. retail sales data and the slowdown in the manufacturing index further indicate that the U.S. economy is heading towards a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55e2c0d3f86e15b081445e564157e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At the same time, the still hot CPI data and<b>The steadily declining number of first-time unemployment claims reinforces the importance of rapid rate hike.</b>This is because the market may have already begun to experience deep-rooted high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822a908530fc15573a3898d0ffd7086a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In light of this, Nomura Securities has lowered its forecast for U.S. real GDP in the third quarter of 2022 from an annualized 1.5% to 1.1%.</p><p>Analysts point out that with the economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve's mission and need to tighten financial conditions have become more urgent, and the so-called \"soft landing\" to curb inflation without the economy falling into recession may be fading away.</p><p>Core retail sales show a slowdown in consumption</p><p>Core retail sales are the basic input component of personal consumption in GDP. Although U.S. retail sales in August exceeded expectations month-on-month, core data reflected signs of a slowdown.</p><p>After deflating nominal core retail sales data using a weighted combination of August CPI data, Nomura Securities estimates that real core retail sales in the United States fell 0.6% month-over-month.</p><p>Analysts say this may be partly due to the July data being driven by Amazon's Prime Day promotion. However, even excluding online sales from the calculation, Nomura Securities estimates that actual core retail sales still declined by 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcc16a43caf18b2e7ae06b1dd780f6a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura Securities points out that this slowdown is a general trend in the consumer sector and is also becoming increasingly evident in business sentiment in the manufacturing industry.<b>With the consumer sector cooling down and the manufacturing sector slowing down, the signs of an impending recession seem to be growing stronger.</b></p><p>Analysts predict that,<b>This recession in the US economy will begin in the fourth quarter of 2022.</b></p><p>In the long term, high core retail sales levels and expanding retailer profit margins continue to put pressure on commodity inflation, driving Federal Reserve rate hike to cool economic activity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc2182d74dd370cddcb786f096c32dc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"977\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Strong labor market</p><p>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time shows that the U.S. labor market is recovering.</p><p>Despite the continued cooling trend in consumer and manufacturing activity, the job market data released for the two weeks of September 3 and September 10 continued to maintain strong momentum. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time on September 10 fell from 218,000 to 213,000; The number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits fell again more than expected, to 143,000, compared to the general forecast of 147,800.</p><p>Analysts point out that while the labor market remains one of the few strong sectors of the economy, strong labor demand is a driver of current high inflation.</p><p>Recent Federal Reserve speeches indicate that committee members are increasingly concerned about the risk of a wage spiral, while the no longer-sustained strong jobless claims figures suggest that...<b>The hot labor market is driving the current wage increase</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3780ae4a8445435a88c038babbdc6aeb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1063\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura Securities believes that the Federal Reserve needs to cool the labor market before inflation is expected to meaningfully decline toward its target. Therefore, the continued exceptionally strong job market data has intensified the pressure on rate hike.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's hard to stop! These two figures this week make it even more difficult for the Federal Reserve.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's hard to stop! These two figures this week make it even more difficult for the Federal Reserve.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-17 19:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The possibility of a soft landing has vanished. With retail sales slowing, the booming labor market has left the Federal Reserve's rate hike with little room for maneuver.</p><p>In Nomura Securities' latest report this Thursday, analysts pointed out that the current weakness in U.S. retail sales data and the slowdown in the manufacturing index further indicate that the U.S. economy is heading towards a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55e2c0d3f86e15b081445e564157e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At the same time, the still hot CPI data and<b>The steadily declining number of first-time unemployment claims reinforces the importance of rapid rate hike.</b>This is because the market may have already begun to experience deep-rooted high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822a908530fc15573a3898d0ffd7086a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In light of this, Nomura Securities has lowered its forecast for U.S. real GDP in the third quarter of 2022 from an annualized 1.5% to 1.1%.</p><p>Analysts point out that with the economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve's mission and need to tighten financial conditions have become more urgent, and the so-called \"soft landing\" to curb inflation without the economy falling into recession may be fading away.</p><p>Core retail sales show a slowdown in consumption</p><p>Core retail sales are the basic input component of personal consumption in GDP. Although U.S. retail sales in August exceeded expectations month-on-month, core data reflected signs of a slowdown.</p><p>After deflating nominal core retail sales data using a weighted combination of August CPI data, Nomura Securities estimates that real core retail sales in the United States fell 0.6% month-over-month.</p><p>Analysts say this may be partly due to the July data being driven by Amazon's Prime Day promotion. However, even excluding online sales from the calculation, Nomura Securities estimates that actual core retail sales still declined by 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcc16a43caf18b2e7ae06b1dd780f6a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura Securities points out that this slowdown is a general trend in the consumer sector and is also becoming increasingly evident in business sentiment in the manufacturing industry.<b>With the consumer sector cooling down and the manufacturing sector slowing down, the signs of an impending recession seem to be growing stronger.</b></p><p>Analysts predict that,<b>This recession in the US economy will begin in the fourth quarter of 2022.</b></p><p>In the long term, high core retail sales levels and expanding retailer profit margins continue to put pressure on commodity inflation, driving Federal Reserve rate hike to cool economic activity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc2182d74dd370cddcb786f096c32dc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"977\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Strong labor market</p><p>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time shows that the U.S. labor market is recovering.</p><p>Despite the continued cooling trend in consumer and manufacturing activity, the job market data released for the two weeks of September 3 and September 10 continued to maintain strong momentum. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time on September 10 fell from 218,000 to 213,000; The number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits fell again more than expected, to 143,000, compared to the general forecast of 147,800.</p><p>Analysts point out that while the labor market remains one of the few strong sectors of the economy, strong labor demand is a driver of current high inflation.</p><p>Recent Federal Reserve speeches indicate that committee members are increasingly concerned about the risk of a wage spiral, while the no longer-sustained strong jobless claims figures suggest that...<b>The hot labor market is driving the current wage increase</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3780ae4a8445435a88c038babbdc6aeb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1063\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura Securities believes that the Federal Reserve needs to cool the labor market before inflation is expected to meaningfully decline toward its target. Therefore, the continued exceptionally strong job market data has intensified the pressure on rate hike.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670547\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670547","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182267949","content_text":"软着陆的可能性已经远去。零售销售放缓之余，劳动力市场的火热让美联储加息再难有回旋余地。在本周四野村证券最新报告中，分析师指出，当前美国零售销售数据走弱和制造业指数放缓进一步增明了美国经济正在走向衰退。与此同时，依然火热的CPI数据和持续降低的首次申领失业金人数强化了快速加息的重要性，因为市场可能已经开始出现根深蒂固的高通胀。鉴于此，野村证券对美国2022年第三季度实际GDP的预测从年化的1.5%下修至1.1%。分析师指出，在经济减速的情况下，美联储收紧金融环境的使命和需求也变为更加迫切，所谓在经济不陷入衰退的情况下抑制通胀的“软着陆”可能正在远去。核心零售销售显示消费放缓核心零售销售是GDP中个人消费的基本投入部分，尽管美国8月零售销售环比超预期，但核心数据却反映出放缓迹象。在使用8月CPI数据的加权组合对名义核心零售销售数据进行平减后，野村证券估计美国实际核心零售销售环比下降0.6%。分析师表示，这在一定程度上可能是因为7月份的数据受到亚马逊大促活动Prime Day的推动。不过即使将线上销售排除在计算之外，野村证券估计的实际核心零售销售仍然下降了0.3%。野村证券指出，这种放缓是消费部门的普遍趋势，在制造业的商业情绪中也越来越明显。随着消费行业的降温和制造业的不断放缓，即将到来的衰退信号似乎越来越大。分析师预计，美国经济的这场衰退将于2022年第四季度开始。而长期趋势来看，核心零售销售水平的高位以及零售商利润率的扩大继续对商品通胀施加压力，推动美联储加息以冷却经济活动。劳动力市场强劲首次申请失业金人数显示，美国劳动市场正在复苏。尽管消费和制造业活动持续降温趋势，但9月3日和9月10日这两周公布的就业市场数据继续保持强劲势头。9月10日首次申请失业救济人数从21.8万人降至21.3万人；持续申领失业救济人数再次超预期下降，为14.3万人，而普遍预测为14.78万人。分析师指出，虽然劳动力市场仍然是经济中为数不多的强劲部门之一，但强劲的劳动力需求是当前高通胀的一个驱动因素。近期的美联储讲话显示，委员们越来越担心工资螺旋上升的风险，而不再持续的强劲失业申请人数表明，劳动力市场火热，正推动当前工资上涨的加剧。野村证券认为，在预期通胀有意义地向目标下降之前，美联储需要冷却劳动力市场。因此，持续异常强劲的就业市场数据强化了加息力度的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937693199,"gmtCreate":1663409392811,"gmtModify":1676537267214,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937693199","repostId":"1138147578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138147578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663316748,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138147578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 16:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview | A 250 Billion Yuan Leading Company Collapses! What happened to the \"bull market standard-bearer\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138147578","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒科指跌2.65%刷新阶段低价，濠赌股逆势走强；A股三大指数跌逾2%，两市4200股下跌；美股指期货、欧股、原油、黄金均走低>>>港股港股全天维持跌势，三大指数均刷新阶段低价。恒指跌0.89%，国指跌","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.65%, hitting a new low for the period, while gambling stocks bucked the trend and rallied. The three major A-share indices fell by more than 2%, with 4,200 stocks declining in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. US stock index futures, European stocks, crude oil, and gold all declined >>><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks remained lower throughout the day, with all three major indices hitting new lows. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.89%, the Hong Kong Holdings Index fell 1.36%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.65%. Southbound capital flowed in against the trend with a net inflow of HK$2.471 billion, and the market turnover increased to HK$123.9 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038daf7de4e0b58c05f167b35dd51aeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the market, the continued decline in large-cap technology stocks dragged down the overall market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>It fell more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group - SW</a>It fell nearly 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com - SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group - W</a>All declined; Coal and power stocks saw the largest declines.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">Yankuang Energy</a>Chinese brokerage stocks plummeted as the General Office of the State Council encouraged securities firms to lower service fees, while auto stocks continued their downward trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Automobile - W</a>Both fell by more than 4%. On the other hand, seven gaming companies conducted bidding procedures for six Macau gaming licenses in the morning. Macau gaming stocks bucked the trend and rose, while airline stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks, and dairy stocks all rose.</p><p><b>A-shares</b></p><p>The market remained open low throughout the day, with all three major indices falling by more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The market capitalization fell below one trillion yuan during trading. At the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.34%. Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 4.512 billion yuan throughout the day, with Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net outflow of 1.855 billion yuan and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net outflow of 2.657 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4717cf6de4afd8a4ee62e77530098c2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the market, software-related sectors bucked the trend and strengthened, with data security and digital currencies leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003029\">Masamoto Yoshida</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">massive data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000948\">Nantian Information</a>Wait for the stock to hit the daily limit In addition, several sectors, including military, TOPCON batteries, and chips, were active during the session, but ultimately all rose and then fell back. On the downside, several blue-chip sectors, including securities firms and coal, collectively adjusted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Eastmoney</a>It fell more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600397\">Anyuan Coal Industry</a>Limit down,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">Guolian Securities</a>It fell by more than 5%. Overall, more stocks fell than rose, with more than 4,200 stocks declining in the two markets, and more than 4,000 stocks falling for two consecutive days. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges today was 799.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 119.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, only a few sectors such as data security, digital currency, and hotels rose, while securities, coal, oil and gas, and new urbanization sectors saw the largest declines.</p><p>Today, the securities sector saw the largest decline in the entire market. By the close, the sector index had fallen by nearly 5%, and Eastmoney, known as the \"securities leader,\" plunged by more than 10%, leading the decline in the securities sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e87b37967df66fe3c086239fab631de\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yesterday, the General Office of the State Council issued the \"Opinions on Further Optimizing the Business Environment and Reducing Institutional Transaction Costs for Market Entities,\" which proposed to encourage securities, fund, guarantee and other institutions to further reduce service fees. Regarding today's stock price performance, Eastmoney responded to a reporter from Securities Times that the company's operations are normal.</p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>U.S. stock index futures fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.75%, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.98%, and S&P 500 futures were down 0.85%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cbeedc8e9485f7564bd997828d608cd\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>The stock plunged 18% in pre-market trading after reporting preliminary first-quarter revenue figures of $23.2 billion that fell short of expectations and withdrawing full-year earnings guidance.</p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Major European indices fell across the board, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 0.06%, and the French CAC40 fell 1.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f314915154c061ee6845cfb1e8f39\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was trading at $84.59 per barrel, down 0.6%. Brent crude is currently trading at $90.5 a barrel, down 0.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa46f7acbc2324e9dfcc71c45333f89\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca07cce668a790f61cccd06368df6d7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell in the short term, currently down 0.8% at $1,663.9 per ounce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176afa5f71746b0c43139a73fde7c7cc\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview | A 250 Billion Yuan Leading Company Collapses! What happened to the \"bull market standard-bearer\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview | A 250 Billion Yuan Leading Company Collapses! What happened to the \"bull market standard-bearer\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-16 16:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.65%, hitting a new low for the period, while gambling stocks bucked the trend and rallied. The three major A-share indices fell by more than 2%, with 4,200 stocks declining in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. US stock index futures, European stocks, crude oil, and gold all declined >>><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks remained lower throughout the day, with all three major indices hitting new lows. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.89%, the Hong Kong Holdings Index fell 1.36%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.65%. Southbound capital flowed in against the trend with a net inflow of HK$2.471 billion, and the market turnover increased to HK$123.9 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038daf7de4e0b58c05f167b35dd51aeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the market, the continued decline in large-cap technology stocks dragged down the overall market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>It fell more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group - SW</a>It fell nearly 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com - SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group - W</a>All declined; Coal and power stocks saw the largest declines.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">Yankuang Energy</a>Chinese brokerage stocks plummeted as the General Office of the State Council encouraged securities firms to lower service fees, while auto stocks continued their downward trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Automobile - W</a>Both fell by more than 4%. On the other hand, seven gaming companies conducted bidding procedures for six Macau gaming licenses in the morning. Macau gaming stocks bucked the trend and rose, while airline stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks, and dairy stocks all rose.</p><p><b>A-shares</b></p><p>The market remained open low throughout the day, with all three major indices falling by more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The market capitalization fell below one trillion yuan during trading. At the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.34%. Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 4.512 billion yuan throughout the day, with Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net outflow of 1.855 billion yuan and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net outflow of 2.657 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4717cf6de4afd8a4ee62e77530098c2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the market, software-related sectors bucked the trend and strengthened, with data security and digital currencies leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003029\">Masamoto Yoshida</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">massive data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000948\">Nantian Information</a>Wait for the stock to hit the daily limit In addition, several sectors, including military, TOPCON batteries, and chips, were active during the session, but ultimately all rose and then fell back. On the downside, several blue-chip sectors, including securities firms and coal, collectively adjusted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Eastmoney</a>It fell more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600397\">Anyuan Coal Industry</a>Limit down,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">Guolian Securities</a>It fell by more than 5%. Overall, more stocks fell than rose, with more than 4,200 stocks declining in the two markets, and more than 4,000 stocks falling for two consecutive days. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges today was 799.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 119.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, only a few sectors such as data security, digital currency, and hotels rose, while securities, coal, oil and gas, and new urbanization sectors saw the largest declines.</p><p>Today, the securities sector saw the largest decline in the entire market. By the close, the sector index had fallen by nearly 5%, and Eastmoney, known as the \"securities leader,\" plunged by more than 10%, leading the decline in the securities sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e87b37967df66fe3c086239fab631de\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yesterday, the General Office of the State Council issued the \"Opinions on Further Optimizing the Business Environment and Reducing Institutional Transaction Costs for Market Entities,\" which proposed to encourage securities, fund, guarantee and other institutions to further reduce service fees. Regarding today's stock price performance, Eastmoney responded to a reporter from Securities Times that the company's operations are normal.</p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>U.S. stock index futures fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.75%, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.98%, and S&P 500 futures were down 0.85%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cbeedc8e9485f7564bd997828d608cd\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>The stock plunged 18% in pre-market trading after reporting preliminary first-quarter revenue figures of $23.2 billion that fell short of expectations and withdrawing full-year earnings guidance.</p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Major European indices fell across the board, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 0.06%, and the French CAC40 fell 1.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f314915154c061ee6845cfb1e8f39\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was trading at $84.59 per barrel, down 0.6%. Brent crude is currently trading at $90.5 a barrel, down 0.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa46f7acbc2324e9dfcc71c45333f89\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca07cce668a790f61cccd06368df6d7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell in the short term, currently down 0.8% at $1,663.9 per ounce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176afa5f71746b0c43139a73fde7c7cc\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCCI":"红筹指数","000001.SH":"上证指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138147578","content_text":"恒科指跌2.65%刷新阶段低价，濠赌股逆势走强；A股三大指数跌逾2%，两市4200股下跌；美股指期货、欧股、原油、黄金均走低>>>港股港股全天维持跌势，三大指数均刷新阶段低价。恒指跌0.89%，国指跌1.36%，恒生科技指数跌2.65%。南下资金逆势净流入24.71亿港元，大市成交额放大至1239亿港元。盘面上，大型科技股继续下跌拖累大市走低，快手-W跌超7%，百度集团-SW跌近4%，腾讯控股、美团-W、京东集团-SW、阿里巴巴-SW、小米集团-W皆下跌；煤炭股与电力股跌幅靠前，兖矿能源连读回调，国办鼓励券商降低服务收费，中资券商股大跌，汽车股延续跌势，理想汽车-W、小鹏汽车-W均跌超4%。另一方面，7家博彩企业上午进行开标程序竞投6张澳门博彩牌照，濠赌股逆势走强，航空股、蓝筹地产股、乳制品股部分上涨。A股大盘全天低开低走，三大指数均跌超2%，宁德时代盘中市值跌破万亿大关。截止收盘，沪指跌2.3%，深成指跌2.3%，创业板指跌2.34%。北向资金全天净卖出45.12亿元，其中沪股通净卖出18.55亿元，深股通净卖出26.57亿元。盘面上，软件相关板块逆势走强，数据安全、数字货币等方向领涨，吉大正元、海量数据、南天信息等涨停。此外军工、TOPCON电池、芯片等多个板块盘中活跃，但最终均冲高回落。下跌方面，券商、煤炭等多个蓝筹板块集体调整，东方财富跌超10%，安源煤业跌停，广发证券、国联证券等跌超5%。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超4200只个股下跌，连续两日下跌个股家数超4000家。沪深两市今日成交额7994亿，较上个交易日缩量1197亿。板块方面，仅数据安全、数字货币、酒店等少数板块上涨，证券、煤炭、油气、新型城镇化等板块跌幅居前。今日证券板块跌幅全市场第一，截至收盘，板块指数大跌近5%，“券茅”东方财富重挫逾10%，领跌证券板块。昨日，国务院办公厅印发的《关于进一步优化营商环境降低市场主体制度性交易成本的意见》提出，鼓励证券、基金、担保等机构进一步降低服务收费。对于今日股价表现，东方财富回应券商中国记者称，公司经营一切正常。美股美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.75%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.98%，标普500指数期货跌0.85%。联邦快递盘前重挫18%，此前公布第一季度营收初步数据232亿美元不及预期，并撤销全年业绩指引。欧股欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌1.74%，英国富时100跌0.06%，法国CAC40跌1.31%。原油原油期货短线下挫，截止发稿，WTI原油报84.59美元/桶，跌0.6%；布油现报90.5美元/桶，跌0.37%。黄金黄金期货短线下挫，现跌0.8%，报1663.9美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937848519,"gmtCreate":1663402695131,"gmtModify":1676537266351,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937848519","repostId":"1184702115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184702115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663370103,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184702115?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 07:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street's most accurate analyst: US stocks to fall until October; 2023 trading strategy revealed.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184702115","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"关于明年，Hartnett认为，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Regarding next year, Hartnett believes the most important trades will be shorting the US dollar and going long on emerging market currencies. The dollar could collapse at any moment if there are clear signs of a US economic recession, or if a black swan event triggers it.</b>According to Michael Hartnett, a Bank of America strategist and one of the most accurate predictors of US stock market trends this year, the current decline in US stocks is not over yet, and the pain will continue until next month. Next year, the most important transactions will be shorting the US dollar and going long on emerging market currencies.</p><p>The most important factor contributing to the continued pain in US stocks is US inflation. Hartnett believes that current inflation is unlikely to fall to 4% to 5% anytime soon. Wall Street generally expects that the Federal Reserve will only be likely to ease its current policy when inflation falls to this level.</p><p>Hartnett believes that the U.S. Federal Funds rate will reach 4% to 5% within the next 4 to 5 months. In the next four to five quarters, the unemployment rate in the United States will rise to 4% to 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43762388df32abbd82f700f3eb7ec869\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hartnett stated: New highs in interest rates equal new lows in US stocks.</b></p><p>Speaking about the current widespread pessimism, he believes that financial conditions will tighten rapidly again because the inflationary shock has not yet ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf853bc177543126262091388e6c73\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced 20 bear markets over the past 140 years, with an average peak and trough decline of 37.3% and an average duration of 289 days. If we look at it this way, this bear market will end on October 19 this year, and the S&P 500 index will reach a low of 3020 points. This is not actually a new view from Hartnett. He said in May that this year's bear market would end in October, with the S&P 500 index hitting a low of 3,000 points.</p><p>It is worth noting that in 2008, US stocks also began a bottom out in late October, but then bottomed out again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc0d5657e1a150fc568db66ee7ac85c\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hartnett stated that the US stock market has not yet experienced the impact of a significant decline in listed company profits. FedEx's withdrawal of its fiscal year 2023 earnings guidance yesterday may be the beginning of this process.</p><p>Global markets are becoming more volatile and heading towards long-term inflation.</p><p>Soon, the Federal Reserve will rate hike by 75 or even 100 basis points this month, and the yen will further depreciate to 150. In the following three months, a series of major events will occur: the Italian general election, the US midterm elections, the G20 summit, the West's determination of the price cap on Russian oil, etc. Hartnett believes that these events will make the market more volatile.</p><p>Furthermore, Hartnett believes that inflation will be a long-term problem, not a short-term one that can be solved. The latest arguments are a 14% pay raise for U.S. freight railroad workers and a drop in U.S. strategic oil supplies to their lowest level since 1984. Globally, factors such as Germany's nationalization of its public utilities sector, the EU's seeking government aid for the steel industry, the G7's price controls on energy prices and a significant increase in military spending, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts all indicate that the world is currently shifting from long-term deflation to long-term inflation.</p><p>How do I trade now?</p><p>In the current market environment, Hartnett's advice is to maintain a defensive strategy, and to shift to a bullish stance on US stocks, the following conditions are required: the number of initial jobless claims exceeds 350,000, US Treasury yields exceed 4%, credit spreads widen, and the dollar falls.</p><p>All of this could happen by the end of the first quarter of next year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of this year, Hartnett believes that investors should sell dollars while buying commodities, banks, small-cap stocks, emerging market stocks, and value stocks that perform against a backdrop of high but stable inflation. In other words, avoid highly leveraged companies, technology stocks, private equity, and other winners during the quantitative easing.</p><p>Regarding the whole of next year, he believes that the most important thing is to short the US dollar and go long on emerging market currencies. The dollar could collapse at any moment if there are clear signs of a US economic recession, or if a black swan event triggers it.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street's most accurate analyst: US stocks to fall until October; 2023 trading strategy revealed.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street's most accurate analyst: US stocks to fall until October; 2023 trading strategy revealed.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-17 07:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Regarding next year, Hartnett believes the most important trades will be shorting the US dollar and going long on emerging market currencies. The dollar could collapse at any moment if there are clear signs of a US economic recession, or if a black swan event triggers it.</b>According to Michael Hartnett, a Bank of America strategist and one of the most accurate predictors of US stock market trends this year, the current decline in US stocks is not over yet, and the pain will continue until next month. Next year, the most important transactions will be shorting the US dollar and going long on emerging market currencies.</p><p>The most important factor contributing to the continued pain in US stocks is US inflation. Hartnett believes that current inflation is unlikely to fall to 4% to 5% anytime soon. Wall Street generally expects that the Federal Reserve will only be likely to ease its current policy when inflation falls to this level.</p><p>Hartnett believes that the U.S. Federal Funds rate will reach 4% to 5% within the next 4 to 5 months. In the next four to five quarters, the unemployment rate in the United States will rise to 4% to 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43762388df32abbd82f700f3eb7ec869\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hartnett stated: New highs in interest rates equal new lows in US stocks.</b></p><p>Speaking about the current widespread pessimism, he believes that financial conditions will tighten rapidly again because the inflationary shock has not yet ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf853bc177543126262091388e6c73\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced 20 bear markets over the past 140 years, with an average peak and trough decline of 37.3% and an average duration of 289 days. If we look at it this way, this bear market will end on October 19 this year, and the S&P 500 index will reach a low of 3020 points. This is not actually a new view from Hartnett. He said in May that this year's bear market would end in October, with the S&P 500 index hitting a low of 3,000 points.</p><p>It is worth noting that in 2008, US stocks also began a bottom out in late October, but then bottomed out again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc0d5657e1a150fc568db66ee7ac85c\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hartnett stated that the US stock market has not yet experienced the impact of a significant decline in listed company profits. FedEx's withdrawal of its fiscal year 2023 earnings guidance yesterday may be the beginning of this process.</p><p>Global markets are becoming more volatile and heading towards long-term inflation.</p><p>Soon, the Federal Reserve will rate hike by 75 or even 100 basis points this month, and the yen will further depreciate to 150. In the following three months, a series of major events will occur: the Italian general election, the US midterm elections, the G20 summit, the West's determination of the price cap on Russian oil, etc. Hartnett believes that these events will make the market more volatile.</p><p>Furthermore, Hartnett believes that inflation will be a long-term problem, not a short-term one that can be solved. The latest arguments are a 14% pay raise for U.S. freight railroad workers and a drop in U.S. strategic oil supplies to their lowest level since 1984. Globally, factors such as Germany's nationalization of its public utilities sector, the EU's seeking government aid for the steel industry, the G7's price controls on energy prices and a significant increase in military spending, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts all indicate that the world is currently shifting from long-term deflation to long-term inflation.</p><p>How do I trade now?</p><p>In the current market environment, Hartnett's advice is to maintain a defensive strategy, and to shift to a bullish stance on US stocks, the following conditions are required: the number of initial jobless claims exceeds 350,000, US Treasury yields exceed 4%, credit spreads widen, and the dollar falls.</p><p>All of this could happen by the end of the first quarter of next year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of this year, Hartnett believes that investors should sell dollars while buying commodities, banks, small-cap stocks, emerging market stocks, and value stocks that perform against a backdrop of high but stable inflation. In other words, avoid highly leveraged companies, technology stocks, private equity, and other winners during the quantitative easing.</p><p>Regarding the whole of next year, he believes that the most important thing is to short the US dollar and go long on emerging market currencies. The dollar could collapse at any moment if there are clear signs of a US economic recession, or if a black swan event triggers it.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670528\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670528","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184702115","content_text":"关于明年，Hartnett认为，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett看来，当前美股的下挫还没结束，痛苦要持续到下个月。而明年，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。令美股痛苦延续的最重要因素是美国的通胀，Hartnett认为，当前的通胀很难很快降至4%到5%的水平。华尔街普遍预计，只有当通胀降至这一水平，美联储才可能有松动当前政策的可能性。Hartnett认为，未来4到5个月内，美国的联邦基金利率将达到4%至5%。而在未来四到五个季度，美国的失业率也将上升到4%到5%。Hartnett称：利率的新高=美股的新低。谈到当前普遍的悲观情绪，他认为，由于通胀冲击还没有结束，金融状况将再次迅速收紧。从历史上来看，标普500指数在过去140年中经历了20次熊市，平均峰谷跌幅达到37.3%，平均持续时间289天。如果以此来看的话，本轮熊市将在今年10月19日结束，标准普尔500指数最低将触达3020点。这其实不是Hartnett的新观点，他在今年5月就说，今年的熊市将在10月结束，标普500指数最低为3000点。值得注意的是，2008年，美股也是在10月下旬开始触底反弹，但之后又二次探底。Hartnett称，当前，美股还没经历上市公司利润大幅下滑的冲击。而昨天联邦快递撤销2023财年业绩指引，可能是这一过程的开端。全球市场更为动荡，走向长期通胀很快，美联储将在本月加息75个甚至100个基点，日元也将进一步贬值至150。而在之后的三个月中，一系列重大事件将发生：意大利大选、美国中期选举、G20峰会、西方对俄罗斯油价上限的确定等等，Hartnett认为，这些事件都将令市场更为动荡。此外，Hartnett认为，通胀将会是长期的，而不是短暂可以解决的问题。最新的论据是美国货运铁路工人加薪14%以及美国战略石油供应降至自1984年以来最低。从全球来看，德国将公用事业部门国有化、欧盟钢铁业寻求政府援助、G7对能源价格的价格控制并大幅增加军费、地缘冲突不断等等因素，都意味着当前的世界正在从长期通缩转向长期通胀。当前如何交易？在当前的市场环境下，Hartnett的建议是保持防御策略，而要转向看涨美股，则需要以下条件：首次申请失业救济人数超过35万，美债收益率超过4%，信用利差扩大，美元回落。这一切可能会在明年一季度末发生。在今年四季度，Hartnett认为，投资者应当卖出美元，同时买入在高通胀但稳定的通胀背景下表现的大宗商品、银行、小型股、新兴市场股票、价值股。也就是说，避免高杠杆的公司、科技股、私募股权等在量化宽松时期的赢家。关于明年全年，他认为，最重要的是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9936825330,"gmtCreate":1662758281420,"gmtModify":1676537132513,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$[得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1090822b5229b7be14a209f15c2e953c","width":"1125","height":"2040"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936825330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932310996,"gmtCreate":1662872596315,"gmtModify":1676537155746,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932310996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989120701,"gmtCreate":1665960362603,"gmtModify":1676537682088,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56199689c37fc32117504645140d4a54","width":"1125","height":"1863"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989120701","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914737823,"gmtCreate":1665365335362,"gmtModify":1676537592420,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b0313bb0da125365a2a42de14343e8b","width":"1125","height":"1971"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914737823","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918492213,"gmtCreate":1664425875333,"gmtModify":1676537453135,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","text":"$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918492213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937105251,"gmtCreate":1663376506973,"gmtModify":1676537261041,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937105251","repostId":"1181100698","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181100698","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663370391,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181100698?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 07:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | Bone-chilling cold! All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% for the week, with FedEx plunging 21%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181100698","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%；热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%；联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报，创近40年最大单日跌幅。海外市场1、联邦快递带来彻骨","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>This brought a chilling effect, with all three major stock indices falling by more than 4% this week; Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with \"Wei Xiaoli\" all dropping by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shangchengshu Science</a>It fell nearly 20%; FedEx released an \"ugly\" earnings report, marking its biggest single-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>1. FedEx brought a chilling effect, causing all three major stock indexes to fall by more than 4% this week.</b></p><p>As US logistics giant FedEx sounded its earnings call, concerns about an economic recession dragged down the market collectively. U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 0.72% at 3,873.33 points. The Nasdaq index fell 0.90% to 11,448.40 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45% to 30,822.42.</p><p>All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% this week. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.13%, the S&P 500 fell 4.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.48%.</p><p><b>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with \"Wei Xiaoli\" both falling by more than 6%, and Shangcheng Digital Technology falling by nearly 20%.</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell nearly 4%, while emerging electric vehicle manufacturers all fell by more than 6%. Among other stocks, Shangcheng Digital Technology fell nearly 20%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Bilibili fell by more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell by more than 5%.</p><p><b>3. Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.66%.</b></p><p>Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.66% and a cumulative weekly decline of 2.65%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%, and has fallen 1.56% this week. The French CAC40 index fell 1.31%, bringing its weekly decline to 2.17%. The European Stoxx 50 index fell 1.21%, bringing its weekly decline to 2.16%.</p><p><b>4. US WTI crude oil fell 1.9% this week.</b></p><p>On Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1 cent to settle at $85.11 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures prices fell 1.9% this week.</p><p><b>5. Gold futures closed 0.4% higher on Friday, down 2.6% for the week.</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday. Gold prices were supported after the release of the September consumer confidence index. However, gold prices still recorded their fourth weekly decline in five weeks this week. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.20, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,683.50 an ounce. Gold futures contracts fell 2.6% this week, marking the fourth weekly decline in the past five weeks.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Eight House Democrats asked Biden to continue releasing oil reserves</b></p><p>According to market sources, eight House Democrats wrote to U.S. President Biden on Friday, stating that the government should continue to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve \"at least\" until the end of the year. In the letter, Representatives led by Jared Golden stated that persistently high oil prices, the unlikelihood of the Russia-Ukraine war ending anytime soon, and the potential for further disruption to domestic oil production during the hurricane season should be reasons to continue releasing oil reserves. Earlier reports indicated that the United States was considering replenishing its strategic petroleum reserves if crude oil fell below $80; The U.S. Department of Energy later stated that the plan to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve does not include a price trigger mechanism and may not be implemented until after fiscal year 2023.</p><p><b>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss the oil price cap set against Russia at the UN General Assembly.</b></p><p>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss the oil price cap imposed on Russia at the UN General Assembly. He also stated that there are no plans to meet with the Russian side during the UN meeting.</p><p><b>Czech Parliament approves energy price cap bill</b></p><p>Czech Parliament approves energy price cap bill. Previously, the Czech government had developed plans to limit energy prices nationwide and impose a windfall profits tax. The measure is expected to cost up to 130 billion Czech crowns (€5.3 billion), with the state using sources such as Dividend from state-owned enterprises and a planned windfall profits tax to finance it.</p><p><b>Japan resumed selling off US Treasury bonds in July, while China increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds for the first time in eight months.</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department announced that in July, Japan reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $2 billion, while China, which had been reducing its holdings for seven consecutive months, increased its holdings by $2.2 billion, temporarily breaking a twelve-year low. Overseas investors also sold off U.S. stocks for seven consecutive months. Official Japanese data shows that Japanese funds have sold off long-term US Treasury bonds for a record nine consecutive months in July.</p><p><b>Falling gasoline prices boosted U.S. consumer inflation expectations in Michigan to a one-year low in September.</b></p><p>Although the preliminary reading of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in September fell short of expectations, it rose slightly compared to August, benefiting from falling gasoline prices. Long-term inflation expectations, which are highly watched by the Federal Reserve, fell to a more than one-year low, while short-term inflation expectations also fell to a one-year low.</p><p><b>The Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations; the governor stated that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end.</b></p><p>The Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, in line with market expectations, compared to 8% previously. Analysts say that as the economy emerges from a severe recession, the threat of inflation will become a focus of attention for the Central Bank of Russia.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese dong hit a record low, and the Thai baht hit a new low in 2006; a \"currency defense battle\" in Asia may be imminent.</b></p><p>A strong dollar is plunging Asian currencies deeper into a quagmire of devaluation. As a strong dollar puts pressure on Asian currencies, some Asian central banks are preparing to intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>FedEx pre-releases \"ugly\" earnings report, marking its biggest single-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b></p><p>After the market closed on Thursday, U.S. logistics giant FedEx pre-disclosed that its first fiscal quarter data, which ended at the end of August, fell short of expectations across the board, and withdrew its guidance for fiscal year 2023. This news was quickly generalized as a symbol of the US economic recession. As a result, FedEx closed down 21.40% on Friday, marking its biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years. Beyer analyst Garrett Holland bluntly stated that FedEx's first-quarter report was \"ugly\" and reflected a significant deterioration in demand in the global logistics market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analysts exclaimed that this was the worst data they had seen researching companies in nearly two decades.</p><p><b>Credit Suisse Group is considering renaming its investment banking division First Boston.</b></p><p>According to media reports on Friday, Credit Suisse executives are considering renaming their investment banking division First Boston. Credit Suisse began acquiring shares in First Boston in the late 1970s and renamed its investment banking division Credit Suisse First Boston in 1988, until it dropped the name in 2005 to unify the group's brand. In response to the rumor, Credit Suisse stated that it will update the progress of its strategic assessment when it releases its third-quarter financial report.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Launch an internal cybersecurity investigation</b></p><p>Uber announced Friday that it has contacted law enforcement and launched a cybersecurity investigation following a suspected hack of its internal network, and there is currently no evidence of a breach of sensitive user data. According to media reports, hackers took control of an employee's workplace instant messaging software and sent mass messages claiming that the company had experienced a data breach. At the same time, the hackers also appeared to have infiltrated the company's internal systems and left \"explicit photos\" to show off.</p><p><b>Transmission<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBL\">BHP Billiton</a>The acquisition offer for OZ Mining will be raised.</b></p><p>According to sources, the mining giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHP.AU\">BHP Billiton</a>The company will soon raise its acquisition offer for OZ Mining, a developer of copper, nickel, and other minerals, after its previous A$8.4 billion proposal was explicitly rejected. It is understood that the company will submit its latest quote as early as this month, but the extent of the increase is currently unclear. As of Friday's market close, OZ Mining's market capitalization had just exceeded BHP Billiton's previous offer.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | Bone-chilling cold! All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% for the week, with FedEx plunging 21%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | Bone-chilling cold! All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% for the week, with FedEx plunging 21%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-17 07:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>This brought a chilling effect, with all three major stock indices falling by more than 4% this week; Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with \"Wei Xiaoli\" all dropping by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shangchengshu Science</a>It fell nearly 20%; FedEx released an \"ugly\" earnings report, marking its biggest single-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>1. FedEx brought a chilling effect, causing all three major stock indexes to fall by more than 4% this week.</b></p><p>As US logistics giant FedEx sounded its earnings call, concerns about an economic recession dragged down the market collectively. U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 0.72% at 3,873.33 points. The Nasdaq index fell 0.90% to 11,448.40 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45% to 30,822.42.</p><p>All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% this week. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.13%, the S&P 500 fell 4.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.48%.</p><p><b>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with \"Wei Xiaoli\" both falling by more than 6%, and Shangcheng Digital Technology falling by nearly 20%.</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell nearly 4%, while emerging electric vehicle manufacturers all fell by more than 6%. Among other stocks, Shangcheng Digital Technology fell nearly 20%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Bilibili fell by more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell by more than 5%.</p><p><b>3. Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.66%.</b></p><p>Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.66% and a cumulative weekly decline of 2.65%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%, and has fallen 1.56% this week. The French CAC40 index fell 1.31%, bringing its weekly decline to 2.17%. The European Stoxx 50 index fell 1.21%, bringing its weekly decline to 2.16%.</p><p><b>4. US WTI crude oil fell 1.9% this week.</b></p><p>On Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1 cent to settle at $85.11 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures prices fell 1.9% this week.</p><p><b>5. Gold futures closed 0.4% higher on Friday, down 2.6% for the week.</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday. Gold prices were supported after the release of the September consumer confidence index. However, gold prices still recorded their fourth weekly decline in five weeks this week. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.20, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,683.50 an ounce. Gold futures contracts fell 2.6% this week, marking the fourth weekly decline in the past five weeks.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Eight House Democrats asked Biden to continue releasing oil reserves</b></p><p>According to market sources, eight House Democrats wrote to U.S. President Biden on Friday, stating that the government should continue to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve \"at least\" until the end of the year. In the letter, Representatives led by Jared Golden stated that persistently high oil prices, the unlikelihood of the Russia-Ukraine war ending anytime soon, and the potential for further disruption to domestic oil production during the hurricane season should be reasons to continue releasing oil reserves. Earlier reports indicated that the United States was considering replenishing its strategic petroleum reserves if crude oil fell below $80; The U.S. Department of Energy later stated that the plan to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve does not include a price trigger mechanism and may not be implemented until after fiscal year 2023.</p><p><b>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss the oil price cap set against Russia at the UN General Assembly.</b></p><p>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss the oil price cap imposed on Russia at the UN General Assembly. He also stated that there are no plans to meet with the Russian side during the UN meeting.</p><p><b>Czech Parliament approves energy price cap bill</b></p><p>Czech Parliament approves energy price cap bill. Previously, the Czech government had developed plans to limit energy prices nationwide and impose a windfall profits tax. The measure is expected to cost up to 130 billion Czech crowns (€5.3 billion), with the state using sources such as Dividend from state-owned enterprises and a planned windfall profits tax to finance it.</p><p><b>Japan resumed selling off US Treasury bonds in July, while China increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds for the first time in eight months.</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department announced that in July, Japan reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $2 billion, while China, which had been reducing its holdings for seven consecutive months, increased its holdings by $2.2 billion, temporarily breaking a twelve-year low. Overseas investors also sold off U.S. stocks for seven consecutive months. Official Japanese data shows that Japanese funds have sold off long-term US Treasury bonds for a record nine consecutive months in July.</p><p><b>Falling gasoline prices boosted U.S. consumer inflation expectations in Michigan to a one-year low in September.</b></p><p>Although the preliminary reading of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in September fell short of expectations, it rose slightly compared to August, benefiting from falling gasoline prices. Long-term inflation expectations, which are highly watched by the Federal Reserve, fell to a more than one-year low, while short-term inflation expectations also fell to a one-year low.</p><p><b>The Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations; the governor stated that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end.</b></p><p>The Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, in line with market expectations, compared to 8% previously. Analysts say that as the economy emerges from a severe recession, the threat of inflation will become a focus of attention for the Central Bank of Russia.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese dong hit a record low, and the Thai baht hit a new low in 2006; a \"currency defense battle\" in Asia may be imminent.</b></p><p>A strong dollar is plunging Asian currencies deeper into a quagmire of devaluation. As a strong dollar puts pressure on Asian currencies, some Asian central banks are preparing to intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>FedEx pre-releases \"ugly\" earnings report, marking its biggest single-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b></p><p>After the market closed on Thursday, U.S. logistics giant FedEx pre-disclosed that its first fiscal quarter data, which ended at the end of August, fell short of expectations across the board, and withdrew its guidance for fiscal year 2023. This news was quickly generalized as a symbol of the US economic recession. As a result, FedEx closed down 21.40% on Friday, marking its biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years. Beyer analyst Garrett Holland bluntly stated that FedEx's first-quarter report was \"ugly\" and reflected a significant deterioration in demand in the global logistics market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analysts exclaimed that this was the worst data they had seen researching companies in nearly two decades.</p><p><b>Credit Suisse Group is considering renaming its investment banking division First Boston.</b></p><p>According to media reports on Friday, Credit Suisse executives are considering renaming their investment banking division First Boston. Credit Suisse began acquiring shares in First Boston in the late 1970s and renamed its investment banking division Credit Suisse First Boston in 1988, until it dropped the name in 2005 to unify the group's brand. In response to the rumor, Credit Suisse stated that it will update the progress of its strategic assessment when it releases its third-quarter financial report.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Launch an internal cybersecurity investigation</b></p><p>Uber announced Friday that it has contacted law enforcement and launched a cybersecurity investigation following a suspected hack of its internal network, and there is currently no evidence of a breach of sensitive user data. According to media reports, hackers took control of an employee's workplace instant messaging software and sent mass messages claiming that the company had experienced a data breach. At the same time, the hackers also appeared to have infiltrated the company's internal systems and left \"explicit photos\" to show off.</p><p><b>Transmission<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBL\">BHP Billiton</a>The acquisition offer for OZ Mining will be raised.</b></p><p>According to sources, the mining giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHP.AU\">BHP Billiton</a>The company will soon raise its acquisition offer for OZ Mining, a developer of copper, nickel, and other minerals, after its previous A$8.4 billion proposal was explicitly rejected. It is understood that the company will submit its latest quote as early as this month, but the extent of the increase is currently unclear. As of Friday's market close, OZ Mining's market capitalization had just exceeded BHP Billiton's previous offer.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东","FDX":"联邦快递","BK4131":"航空货运与物流",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181100698","content_text":"摘要：联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%；热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%；联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报，创近40年最大单日跌幅。海外市场1、联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%随着美国物流巨头联邦快递鸣响财报警钟，对于经济衰退的担忧拖累市场集体走弱。美股周五收跌，标普500指数跌0.72%，报3873.33点；纳斯达克指数跌0.90%，报11448.40点；道琼斯指数跌0.45%，报30822.42点。三大股指本周均下跌超过4%。本周道指下跌4.13%，标普500指数下跌4.77%，纳指下跌5.48%。2、热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%热门中概股下跌，拼多多跌超4%，京东跌近4%，造车新势力均跌超6%。其他个股中，尚乘数科跌近20%，金山云跌超7%，B站、爱奇艺、满帮跌超6%，腾讯音乐、新东方、好未来、斗鱼跌超5%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌 德国DAX30指数跌1.66%欧洲主要股指集体收跌，德国DAX30指数跌1.66%，本周累跌2.65%；英国富时100指数跌0.66%，本周累跌1.56%；法国CAC40指数跌1.31%，本周累跌2.17%；欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.21%，本周累跌2.16%。4、美国WTI原油本周下跌1.9%周五，纽约商品交易所10月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1美分，收于每桶85.11美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货价格下跌1.9%。5、周五黄金期货收高0.4%，本周下跌2.6%黄金期货价格周五收高。在9月消费者信心指数公布后，金价得到支撑。但本周黄金价格仍录得五周内的第四周下跌。纽约商品期货交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格上涨6.20美元，涨幅为0.4%，收于每盎司1683.50美元。本周黄金期货合约下跌2.6%，为过去五周内的第四周下跌。国际宏观八位众议院民主党人要求拜登继续释放石油储备据市场消息，八位众议院民主党人周五致函美国总统拜登，表示政府应继续释放战略石油储备“至少”到年底。Jared Golden牵头的众议员在信中表示，持续的高油价加上俄乌战争不太可能在近期结束、飓风季可能导致国内石油生产进一步受到干扰，应该是继续释放石油储备的理由。此前有消息称，美国考虑在原油跌破80美元时补充战略石油储备；美国能源部后来表示，补充战略石油储备的计划不包括价格触发机制，并且2023财年之后才可能实施。美国大使称将在联合国大会上讨论对俄罗斯设置的油价上限美国大使称将在联合国大会上讨论对俄罗斯设置的油价上限。并表示，没有计划在联合国会议期间与俄罗斯方面进行会晤。捷克议会批准能源价格上限法案捷克议会批准能源价格上限法案。此前，捷克政府已经制定了在全国范围内限制能源价格和征收暴利税的计划。预计这项措施最多将耗资1300亿捷克克朗(合53亿欧元)，国家将使用国有企业的股息、计划中的暴利税等来源来提供资金。7月日本重启抛售美债，中国八个月内首度增持美债美国财政部公布，7月日本减持20亿美元美债，连续减持七个月的中国增持22亿美元美债，持仓暂别十二年低谷，海外投资者连续七个月抛售美股。日本官方数据显示，日本基金7月已连续九个月创纪录长期抛美债。汽油价格下跌助推，美国9月密歇根消费者通胀预期跌至一年新低美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心初值虽不及预期，但较8月有所攀升，这受益于汽油价格下跌。美联储高度关注的长期通胀预期跌至一年多新低，短期通胀预期也降至一年新低。俄罗斯央行降息50基点，符合预期，行长称降息周期可能接近尾声俄罗斯央行周五宣布将基准利率下调50个基点至7.5%，符合市场预期，前值为8%。分析人士称，随着经济摆脱严重衰退，通胀威胁将成为俄央行关注的焦点。越南盾创纪录新低，泰币创2006年新低，亚洲“本币保卫战”或一触即发强势美元正在使亚洲国家货币在贬值的泥潭里越陷越深。由于美元强势导致亚洲国家货币承压，部分亚洲国家央行正在准备出手干预汇市。公司消息联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报 创近40年最大单日跌幅周四盘后，美国物流巨头联邦快递预披露截至8月底的第一财季数据全面不及预期，同时撤回2023财年的指引。这一消息也迅速被泛化为美国经济衰退的象征。受此影响，联邦快递周五收跌21.40%，创近40年来的最大单日跌幅。贝雅分析师Garrett Holland直言联邦快递的一季报“丑陋”，并反映出全球物流市场的需求显著恶化。德意志银行的分析师们则高呼，这是他们研究公司近二十年来看到的最糟糕数据。瑞信集团考虑将投行部门更名为第一波士顿据媒体周五报道，瑞信集团的高管近期正在考虑将投行部门改名为第一波士顿。瑞信在上世纪70年代末开始收购第一波士顿的股票，并在1988年将投行部门改名为瑞信第一波士顿，直到2005年为了统一集团品牌去掉了这个名字。对于该传言，瑞信回应称将在发布三季度财报时更新战略评估的进展。优步启动内部网络安全调查优步公司周五宣布，在公司内网疑似遭到黑客攻击后，已经联系执法部门并启动网络安全调查，目前并没有证据显示用户敏感数据出现泄露。据媒体报道，黑客控制一名员工的职场即时通讯软件，并群发消息称公司出现了数据泄露，同时黑客似乎也入侵了公司的内部系统，并留下“露骨照片”显摆。传必和必拓将提高对OZ矿业的收购报价据知情人士透露，矿业巨头必和必拓将在近期提高对铜、镍等矿产开发商OZ矿业的收购报价，此前84亿澳元的提案遭到明确否决。据悉，公司最快将在本月内提出最新的报价，但目前上浮的程度尚不清楚。截至本周五收盘，OZ矿业的市值刚刚超过必和必拓上一轮提出的收购价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"PDD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"JD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"FDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932606380,"gmtCreate":1662937301240,"gmtModify":1676537164228,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>🙏🙏🙏🙏","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>🙏🙏🙏🙏","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$🙏🙏🙏🙏","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8dafcc898fe2f18f637becc4124e855a","width":"1125","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932606380","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988905417,"gmtCreate":1666651077939,"gmtModify":1676537782199,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1a29640681bf12be7f1d78807e9cd46","width":"1125","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988905417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916854300,"gmtCreate":1664578678700,"gmtModify":1676537478204,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48b48ff660262cd1392797d60fd39906","width":"1125","height":"2079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916854300","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916852858,"gmtCreate":1664578423774,"gmtModify":1676537478148,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916852858","repostId":"1146232184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146232184","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664542806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146232184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 21:00","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Firsthand experience of the UK crisis: The entire pension market was almost destroyed!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146232184","media":"三思期权","summary":"巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Having personally experienced this week's storm, this short essay commemorates it in the form of a notebook. This week has been incredibly exhausting. Besides being mentally exhausted, I also feel a little regretful that I didn't have any foresight about such a big event, which is why I missed this black swan trade.</p><p>How do you describe what happened this week? I feel like it's closest to March 2020. UK interest rates and the pound market completely collapsed, the entire UK pension market nearly collapsed, and the LDI industry within pensions collapsed overnight. If the entire pension market collapses, it won't be March anymore; it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank intervened to rescue the market.</p><p>I've been so exhausted these past two days that I don't want to write too much. For basic knowledge about what's happening in the market, you can check out this article by Degg_GlobalMacroFin. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experiences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, who almost single-handedly destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, the leverage in the LDI industry cannot be blamed on them. However, introducing unrestrained tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost caused the sudden demise of the pension market.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that the idiotic tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp rise in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses on Interest rates (Interest rate swaps) used by many pension funds in LDI funds to hedge against Interest rate and inflation risks. Huge losses themselves aren't so terrible; what's most terrifying is the short-term, continuous huge losses that cause the margin to run out quickly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the 30-year interest rate in the UK surged 230 basis points. How much impact will this surge have on these LDI funds that hold interest rate swaps? We can make a rough estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>A pension fund with a scale of 1 billion yuan holds approximately two million yuan in DV01 (profit or loss resulting from a one-basis-point interest rate change) from interest rate swaps in its LDI fund. This means that over the past two months, due to a 230-basis-point change in the 30-year interest rate, the loss resulting from the interest rate swap is 230 * 2m = 460m. In other words, the losses resulting from the interest rate swap over the past two months amount to nearly half of the pension fund's assets!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not a real loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge against the liabilities of pension funds, if the interest rate swaps result in losses, the value of the liabilities will also decrease. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedging transaction that will not result in any losses.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>However, however, in the previous example, after losing 400 million in such a short period of time, those LDI funds first sold their most liquid UK Treasury Bond to raise funds to cover the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Those who know a little about over-the-counter trading might ask, why don't these funds use these UK Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings us to another topic: the interest rate swap market has undergone a major transformation in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have moved from simple over-the-counter transactions to centrally cleared over-the-counter transactions. The clearing house is LCH, and currently only cash can be used as security.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Okay, here comes the key point: this is the most important step in the death spiral. The UK Treasury Bond rate and the UK interest rate swap rate are actually quite similar. Because the interest rate swap resulted in losses, the fund manager had to sell Treasury Bond to cover margin. The massive sell-off of Treasury Bond led to rising interest rates in Treasury Bond, while rising interest rates in Treasury Bond led to higher interest rates on interest rate swaps. These rising interest rates led fund managers to sell more Treasury Bond to replenish margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Financial markets are neither afraid of rising nor falling; when prices are low, people will naturally buy, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, pension assets totaled approximately £1.5 trillion at the end of August. In other words, the rough estimate of the margin requirements caused by the losses in the LDI strategy of the entire pension fund over the past two months is 690 billion yuan. My friend's LDI desk paid 1.2 billion yuan in back deposits in one day last Friday! Yes, a desk costs 1.2 billion a day!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>During the sell-off, Treasury Bond sold out, leaving only other assets to be sold. First and foremost, there are stocks with high liquidity. This caused stocks to fall as well, and indiscriminately. Because there are requirements for the speed at which pension funds can be replenished during this process (usually T+0), they can only be sold blindly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Stocks will fall if they fall; if they get cheap, people will naturally buy them. However, another crucial point in the whole process is that these pension funds have significantly increased their allocation to illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, over the past 10 years. These are not things you can redeem just because you want to. This creates a huge problem: liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If you can't sell it, sorry, if you can't pay the margin, those interest rate swap positions will be exploded. Investment banking desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This has led to the interest rate on interest rate swaps continuing to rise! This will further drag down other well-liquid pension funds.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the entire interest rate swap market had been paralyzed, and most market makers had already left the market. Previously, the spread between buying and selling one-year UK interest rate swaps was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but by then it had risen to 9-10 bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is to wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank took decisive action, implementing quantitative easing (QE) to curb the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral was broken. It brought many pension funds and LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not everyone saw the dawn. Several large UK asset management companies' LDI funds exploded. Just look at their stock prices... I won't reveal their names, just be polite.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst were those pensions that collapsed on the eve of dawn, and the holders who lived off them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the market rescue had been delayed by another two days, the entire pension industry would have collapsed.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this major upheaval in the LDI industry, even surviving funds will find it difficult to continue to survive, and the biggest flaw in the industry's business model has been exposed. Without leverage, the industry would not survive. It can only be said that this industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the British Treasury Bond rose by 40% in one day in 50 years! Who says Treasury Bond is rising slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1607924588218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Firsthand experience of the UK crisis: The entire pension market was almost destroyed!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFirsthand experience of the UK crisis: The entire pension market was almost destroyed!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">三思期权</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Having personally experienced this week's storm, this short essay commemorates it in the form of a notebook. This week has been incredibly exhausting. Besides being mentally exhausted, I also feel a little regretful that I didn't have any foresight about such a big event, which is why I missed this black swan trade.</p><p>How do you describe what happened this week? I feel like it's closest to March 2020. UK interest rates and the pound market completely collapsed, the entire UK pension market nearly collapsed, and the LDI industry within pensions collapsed overnight. If the entire pension market collapses, it won't be March anymore; it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank intervened to rescue the market.</p><p>I've been so exhausted these past two days that I don't want to write too much. For basic knowledge about what's happening in the market, you can check out this article by Degg_GlobalMacroFin. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experiences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, who almost single-handedly destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, the leverage in the LDI industry cannot be blamed on them. However, introducing unrestrained tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost caused the sudden demise of the pension market.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that the idiotic tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp rise in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses on Interest rates (Interest rate swaps) used by many pension funds in LDI funds to hedge against Interest rate and inflation risks. Huge losses themselves aren't so terrible; what's most terrifying is the short-term, continuous huge losses that cause the margin to run out quickly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the 30-year interest rate in the UK surged 230 basis points. How much impact will this surge have on these LDI funds that hold interest rate swaps? We can make a rough estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>A pension fund with a scale of 1 billion yuan holds approximately two million yuan in DV01 (profit or loss resulting from a one-basis-point interest rate change) from interest rate swaps in its LDI fund. This means that over the past two months, due to a 230-basis-point change in the 30-year interest rate, the loss resulting from the interest rate swap is 230 * 2m = 460m. In other words, the losses resulting from the interest rate swap over the past two months amount to nearly half of the pension fund's assets!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not a real loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge against the liabilities of pension funds, if the interest rate swaps result in losses, the value of the liabilities will also decrease. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedging transaction that will not result in any losses.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>However, however, in the previous example, after losing 400 million in such a short period of time, those LDI funds first sold their most liquid UK Treasury Bond to raise funds to cover the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Those who know a little about over-the-counter trading might ask, why don't these funds use these UK Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings us to another topic: the interest rate swap market has undergone a major transformation in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have moved from simple over-the-counter transactions to centrally cleared over-the-counter transactions. The clearing house is LCH, and currently only cash can be used as security.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Okay, here comes the key point: this is the most important step in the death spiral. The UK Treasury Bond rate and the UK interest rate swap rate are actually quite similar. Because the interest rate swap resulted in losses, the fund manager had to sell Treasury Bond to cover margin. The massive sell-off of Treasury Bond led to rising interest rates in Treasury Bond, while rising interest rates in Treasury Bond led to higher interest rates on interest rate swaps. These rising interest rates led fund managers to sell more Treasury Bond to replenish margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Financial markets are neither afraid of rising nor falling; when prices are low, people will naturally buy, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, pension assets totaled approximately £1.5 trillion at the end of August. In other words, the rough estimate of the margin requirements caused by the losses in the LDI strategy of the entire pension fund over the past two months is 690 billion yuan. My friend's LDI desk paid 1.2 billion yuan in back deposits in one day last Friday! Yes, a desk costs 1.2 billion a day!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>During the sell-off, Treasury Bond sold out, leaving only other assets to be sold. First and foremost, there are stocks with high liquidity. This caused stocks to fall as well, and indiscriminately. Because there are requirements for the speed at which pension funds can be replenished during this process (usually T+0), they can only be sold blindly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Stocks will fall if they fall; if they get cheap, people will naturally buy them. However, another crucial point in the whole process is that these pension funds have significantly increased their allocation to illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, over the past 10 years. These are not things you can redeem just because you want to. This creates a huge problem: liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If you can't sell it, sorry, if you can't pay the margin, those interest rate swap positions will be exploded. Investment banking desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This has led to the interest rate on interest rate swaps continuing to rise! This will further drag down other well-liquid pension funds.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the entire interest rate swap market had been paralyzed, and most market makers had already left the market. Previously, the spread between buying and selling one-year UK interest rate swaps was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but by then it had risen to 9-10 bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is to wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank took decisive action, implementing quantitative easing (QE) to curb the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral was broken. It brought many pension funds and LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not everyone saw the dawn. Several large UK asset management companies' LDI funds exploded. Just look at their stock prices... I won't reveal their names, just be polite.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst were those pensions that collapsed on the eve of dawn, and the holders who lived off them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the market rescue had been delayed by another two days, the entire pension industry would have collapsed.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this major upheaval in the LDI industry, even surviving funds will find it difficult to continue to survive, and the biggest flaw in the industry's business model has been exposed. Without leverage, the industry would not survive. It can only be said that this industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the British Treasury Bond rose by 40% in one day in 50 years! Who says Treasury Bond is rising slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA\">三思期权</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28e326edc19611f4a02f9a0ebb66bf9","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146232184","content_text":"亲历了这周的风暴，这篇小短文就以手记的形式纪念一下。这周实在累的不行了，心累之余还有点遗憾，这么大的事件，竟然没有先知先觉，也就错过了这次的黑天鹅交易。怎么比喻这周发生的事情呢？我感觉最接近2020年三月。英国利率以及英镑市场完全垮掉，英国整个养老金市场差点扑街，而养老金里的LDI行业一夜之间就垮了。要是整个养老金市场垮了，就不是3月份了，那就是08年。好在央行出来救市了。。。这两天实在太心累，不想码太多字。市场上大概发生了什么，基础知识可以看看Degg_GlobalMacroFin这篇。这篇里我就重点讲讲我的一线经历。记住这俩人，几乎凭借了一己之力把巨大的养老金市场毁灭。当然，LDI这个行业的杠杆不能怪他们。 但是没有经验的情况下推出毫无节制的减税政策，是差点让养老金市场突然死亡的导火索。最简单的解释就是， 傻X的减税政策导致利率大幅飙升。 利率大幅飙升导致不少养老金用来对冲利率以及通胀风险的LDI基金里使用的利率（Interest rate swap）短期出现巨额亏损。 巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏，导致保证金很快就用光了。从8月底到9月底， 英国30年期利率暴涨了230个基点。这个暴涨的速度对这些持有利率互换的LDI基金有多大影响？ 我们可以初略的估算一下。一个规模10亿的养老金，持有的LDI基金里利率互换的DV01 (一个基点利率变动导致利率互换产生的损益） 是大概两百万。也就是说，过去两个月，因为30年期利率变动了230个基点。利率互换产生的损失就是230* 2m = 460m。 也就是说， 过去2个月，利率互换产生的亏损是这个养老金资产的接近一半！！！这个损失，不是真的亏损。因为这些利率互换是拿来对冲养老金负债端的，利率互换亏了，负债端的价值也下降了。理论上这个是个多空对冲交易不会产生什么损失。但是，但是， 但是,在上个例子里，这么短时间里，亏损了4个亿，那些LDI基金为了交保证金，首先卖出手中流动性最好的英国国债来筹集资金补保证金。懂一点场外交易的朋友会问，为啥这些基金不拿这些英国国债当保证金？ 因为不少场外交易是可以直接用国债当保证金的。 这就要牵扯到另一个话题，就是过去10年里利率互换市场经历了一场大变革。多数利率互换已经从单纯的场外交易变成了中央清算的场外交易。清算所是LCH,现在只能用现金做保证金。那么好了，重点来了， 这也就是死亡螺旋最重要的一步。英国国债利率，和英国利率互换的利率其实是差不多的东西。 因为利率互换亏钱了，基金经理要卖国债补保证金。 大量的抛售国债，导致国债利率上升， 而国债利率上升导致利率互换的利率上升，利率互换上升导致基金经理要卖更多的国债补保证金。。。。金融市场不怕涨，不怕跌，价格低了自然有人买，但是市场最怕这种死亡螺旋。这个养老金市场有多大呢？ 根据PPF的估计，8月底，养老金资产一共大约一共1.5万亿英镑。也就是说，过去两个月，整个养老金的LDI策略亏损导致的保证金的初略估算在6900亿 。 我朋友的LDI desk在上周五一天补交的保证金就是12个亿！对， 一天，一个desk 12亿！在抛售的过程中， 国债卖完了， 只有卖其他资产。 首先就是流动性好的股票。 这就导致股票也跟着跌，而且是无差别的跌。因为这个过程中，养老金由于补保证金的速度有要求(一般是T+0），所以只能闭着眼卖。股票跌就跌了，便宜了自然有人买。 但整个环节另一个要命的点是， 这些养老金过去10年里大幅度增加配置了没有流动性的资产， 比如地产，比如私募股权基金。 这些不是你想赎回就赎回的。 这就产生了一个巨大的问题，流动性错配！卖不了，抱歉交不上保证金那些利率互换的仓位就爆了。 投行交易台就必须要在市场上卖掉这些利率互换头寸。这就导致利率互换的利率继续上升！从而再拖垮其他流动性还不错的养老金。当时整个利率互换市场市场已经瘫痪， 多数做市商已经离场。 以前一年期的英国利率互换的买卖差价也就0.1-0.2 bps,当时已经上升到9-10bps!出现了死亡螺旋之后，唯一能够做的就是等英国央行救市。 好在央行果断出手，祭出QE压住国债利率上升的势头。死亡螺旋被打破。把不少养老金以及那些LDI基金从死亡的边缘拉回来。但不是所有的人都看到了黎明。 几家大的英国资管的LDI基金就爆了。 看看他们的股价就知道。。。。 我就不公布他们的名字了，留点口德。最惨的是那些倒在黎明前夜的养老金，以及靠这些养老金生活的持有人。如果救市再晚两天，整个养老金行业就gg了。而LDI这个行业随着这次巨震，即使活下来的基金也很难继续生存下去， 这个行业的商业模式的最大缺点已经被暴露了。而如果不用杠杆， 这个行业也生存不下去。只能说这个行业在不久的将来很可能会消失。打破了死亡螺旋，50年英国国债一天就上涨了40%！ 谁说国债涨的慢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}