小狼狗风华无双 personal page - To The Moon

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小狼狗风华无双

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小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-10

$爱奇艺(IQ)$[得意] [得意] [得意]

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-11

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$

小狼狗风华无双

2022-10-17

$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$

小狼狗风华无双

2022-10-10

$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$[开心]

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-29

$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-17

[开心] [开心]

Last night and this morning | Bone-piercing cold! The three major stock indexes all fell more than 4% on the week, and FedEx fell 21%.

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-12

$爱奇艺(IQ)$🙏🙏🙏🙏

小狼狗风华无双

2022-10-25

$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$

小狼狗风华无双

2022-10-01

$腾讯音乐(TME)$[微笑]

小狼狗风华无双

2022-10-01

[微笑]

British crisis experience: the entire pension market was almost destroyed!

小狼狗风华无双

2022-10-01

[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-30

[微笑]

One day's net worth shrank by tens of billions, Li Ka-shing recovered 6 billion losses by "hoarding land"

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-30

[害羞]

Large options order | Sudden big news, Apple options trading volume surged! Alibaba Put transactions account for more than 80%

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-29

$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-29

[微笑]

Changes | Futures indexes all fell, and Chinese concept stocks were sluggish before the market

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-28

[微笑] [微笑]

Jobs' old capital ate for 11 years: fat Cook and thin scalper

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-24

[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

Before the Market | What Happened? Stocks, Crude Oil, Gold Accelerate Declines

小狼狗风华无双

2022-09-21

[微笑] [微笑]

Pre-market comments | Where is the end of the Fed's current rate hike?

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[笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916858935","repostId":"2271377796","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916329201,"gmtCreate":1664514112903,"gmtModify":1676537469765,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916329201","repostId":"1143870144","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143870144","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664502256,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143870144?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 09:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"One day's net worth shrank by tens of billions, Li Ka-shing recovered 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143870144","media":"野马财经","summary":"身价缩水百亿后，李嘉诚家族旗下长实集团再次依靠“囤地”获利。由于英镑和欧元大幅贬值，重仓欧洲市场的李嘉诚家族企业遭受重创。9月23日，英国政府推出50年来最大减税政策，结果导致英国遭遇股债汇“三杀”，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>After its net worth shrank by tens of billions, Cheung Kong Group, a subsidiary of the Li Ka-shing family, once again relied on \"hoarding land\" to make profits.</b>Due to the sharp depreciation of the pound and euro, Li Ka-shing's family business, which has a heavy position in the European market, suffered heavy losses.</p><p>On September 23rd, the British government launched the biggest tax reduction policy in 50 years. As a result, the UK suffered a \"three kills\" of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. The pound once fell below the 1.04 mark against the US dollar, and there was a \"selling tide\" in the bond market, and the stock market plummeted.</p><p>The Bloomberg Billionaires Real-time Index shows that,<b>On September 26, Li Ka-shing had a net worth of US $26.7 billion (about 191.241 billion yuan), while the previous day, Li Ka-shing's net worth was US $28.1 billion (about 201.176 billion yuan), and 9.935 billion yuan evaporated in one day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ce18619140bf79d1941bdbdf4af7cb\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group Announcement</p><p>After experiencing a sharp decline in value,<b>On September 28, Cheung Kong Group (1113. HK) announced that it would sell property projects in Hong Kong, China, to Singapore financial institution Sino-Suisse for HK $20.766 billion (approximately 19.05 billion yuan), including the unsold portion of the luxury residential project at 21 Porao Road.</b></p><p>On the day of the transaction, the buyer had paid a deposit of HK $2.077 billion, and then paid a total of five partial payments to the seller every six months. The first two payments were HK $1.038 billion each and the last three payments were HK $2.077 billion each. In addition, the buyer is required to pay the balance upon completion of the transaction.</p><p>Cheung Kong Group said that the sale of the project will enable the company to realize its investment in the development project, and the buyer's loan will help complete the transaction.<b>The company expects the proceeds from the sale to be approximately HK $6.3 billion (approximately 5.779 billion yuan)</b>The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes of the Group.</p><p><b>\"Hoarding land\" for 11 years, a profit of 5.779 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to the data, 21 BORRETT ROAD is one of the well-known super luxury residential projects in Hong Kong, China. This transaction includes 152 residential units, 242 residential parking spaces and 31 motorcycle parking spaces.</p><p><b>In June 2011, Cheung Kong Group purchased the Bolao Road land for HK $11.65 billion, with a floor price of HK $26,763 per foot, setting a record for the second highest price in Hong Kong, China that year.</b></p><p>The land is located in the mansion area of West Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, China, with an area of about 10,500 square meters and a buildable floor area of about 40,400 square meters. It was once called \"first-class beautiful land\" by Li Zeju, chairman of Cheung Kong Group.</p><p>Since it was bought by Cheung Kong Group in 2011, it took 10 years for the project to officially go on the current floor market. Compared with the land price 10 years ago, the current average floor price has increased by more than 10 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2b1e5d766054061885687df7fd0028\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Public Account, No. 21, Cheung Shibo Lao Road</p><p><b>According to public reports, the latest transaction at No.21 Bolao Road was in June this year, with 2 sets sold, totaling nearly 400 million Hong Kong dollars (about 367 million yuan).</b></p><p>Among them, a set of Room 1, 20th Floor, Phase 1, No.21 Bolao Road Community, which was sold, was priced at 270 million yuan, with an interior area of about 273.6 square meters. According to the transaction price, its unit price reached 986,900 yuan/square meter.</p><p>Some insiders believe that the long development mode of \"hoarding land\" is a major feature of Li Ka-shing's Changshi Department, which also makes its company make a lot of profits by using this method.</p><p>Talking about Li Ka-shing's land hoarding for profit has existed for a long time. As early as 10 years ago, \"Economic Observer Network\" reported that Hutchison Whampoa, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, was included in Shanghai's official land hoarding list.</p><p>Regarding the land hoarding behavior of Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Department,<b>\"China Times\" once reported that over the years, more than ten projects of \"Changhe Department\" in nearly ten cities across the country have adopted \"snail-style\" development methods, extending the land development cycle from 6 years to more than 10 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce126a777041428467fdc98a4c7691ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with external doubts,<b>Cheung Kong Group has publicly responded that Cheung Kong's domestic real estate projects have been carried out in accordance with laws and regulations and all government procedures, and the development is slow, which is actually misunderstood, and the sale of projects is also a normal business behavior of real estate developers.</b></p><p>Today, Li Ka-shing has once again achieved a profit of HK $6.3 billion from \"hoarding land\". In the eyes of the industry, Cheung Kong can efficiently lock in considerable profits by selling all the units yet to be launched in Bolaodao to a single buyer in a few days.</p><p>The buyer of this transaction is Huarui Capital, which was founded in Singapore in 2017 and also obtained the capital market service license issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>For buyers, buying a top-class luxury house located in the rarest location in Hong Kong, China, looking around the market today, it is difficult to find a comparable high-quality property with a high return on investment value. When Hong Kong is fully opened and closed, the appreciation potential of the project should be very ideal.</p><p><b>Li Ka-shing's buying and selling</b></p><p>Since 2013, Li Ka-shing, who has been dubbed by the industry as being good at \"hoarding land\", has started to move assets and made frequent profits by selling asset projects.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, including the sale of Hong Kong Central Center and Watsons equity, the amount of assets sold by Li Ka-shing has exceeded at least 250 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time of the sale, Li Ka-shing never stopped new investments.<b>In 2021, Cheung Kong Group will spend HK $17.38 billion to purchase 4 pieces of land in Hong Kong, China through different channels, increasing the floor area of approximately 154,600 square meters for development.</b></p><p>In May of this year, Li Ka-shing reappeared in the mainland land auction market after ten years since 2012. In the auction of Baiyun Airport Avenue in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, Hutchison Whampoa, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, also participated in the bidding, but did not win the bid in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5cfa9374570c5bca3cb35fc02610b27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to a list published earlier, the market value of properties still held by Cheung Kong Group in mainland China reached 126.16 billion yuan, distributed in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Dalian and other places, among which the market value of properties available for development was 31.573 billion yuan.</p><p><b>In fact, since 2020, Cheung Kong Group has sold overseas businesses and assets many times, involving energy, communications, real estate, electricity, aircraft leasing and other sectors, including Husky, which Li Ka-shing called \"one of the most successful investments in his life\". Sky energy.</b></p><p>In March 2022, Cheung Kong Group announced the sale of its office building in London, England, for 729 million pounds (about 6 billion yuan). Cheung Kong's expected income from the sale is approximately 108 million pounds (approximately 896 million yuan).</p><p>In addition, in July this year, Cheung Kong Group was close to completing the 15 billion pound (approximately 116.813 billion yuan) sale of British Electric Power Company, but due to the last-minute price increase, the entire sale plan ultimately fell through.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8746e7839869ecee34dfb2878cef5ca3\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group financial report</p><p>The reason for this operation can be seen by analyzing its annual report data. The annual report shows that in 2021, the total revenue of Cheung Kong Group will be 62.094 billion Hong Kong dollars, of which property is the main revenue, property sales will reach 37.76 billion Hong Kong dollars, property leasing will reach 6.543 billion Hong Kong dollars, and hotel and serviced suite business will reach 2.691 billion Hong Kong dollars. Property and project management is HK $816 million, and British pub business is HK $14.284 billion.</p><p>Regardless of property sales or property leasing, Hong Kong and the Mainland account for a larger proportion.<b>In the property sales business, the sales of properties in Hong Kong, China were HK $15.724 billion, the sales of properties in the Mainland were HK $21.722 billion, and the sales of overseas properties were HK $352 million. In terms of property leasing, Hong Kong, China was HK $4.352 billion, the mainland was HK $571 million, and overseas was HK $738 million.</b></p><p>As the richest man in Hong Kong, Li Ka-shing's business actions have always attracted market attention. Since the beginning of this year, Li Ka-shing has made frequent moves, and some voices pointed out that \"Li Ka-shing is fleeing Britain\" and \"Li Ka-shing is back\".</p><p>Li Zeju responded that selling buildings is a daily business and a business, and there is no divestment. He said that the mainland and Hong Kong are the hometown of the group, and there are emotional factors, but they will still pay attention to the return on investment.</p><p><b>Is there still a chance for Evergrande Center to \"pick up the leak\"?</b></p><p>The biggest trick to \"hoard land\" to make a profit is to \"pick up leaks\" by bargain hunting. In July this year, Li Ka-shing tried to buy the bottom of China Evergrande Center.</p><p><b>On July 28, China Evergrande (3333. HK) sold China Evergrande Center for the second time in the form of competitive bidding, and the price dropped from HK $10.5 billion to HK $9 billion.</b></p><p>Prior to this, in August 2021, it was reported in the market that Evergrande offered HK $15.6 billion to seek the takeover of Hong Kong Evergrande Center. After subsequently contacting Yuexiu Real Estate, the price dropped to HK $10.5 billion, but the transaction did not take place in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b27d545b805efd24953789514ada0df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Canned Gallery</p><p>China Evergrande Center is located in the middle of downtown Wanchai, Hong Kong, China. It is a 26-storey Grade A office building with a total construction area of about 32,100 square meters. Its predecessor was the American Metrohm Building.</p><p>In 2015, China Evergrande spent HK $12.5 billion to purchase it from Chinese Real Estate (0127. HK), setting a record for commercial buildings in Hong Kong, China.</p><p>At the end of July 2022, after the China Evergrande Center was re-sold, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group submitted a tender. At that time, the property was valued at about HK $9 billion. From the perspective of the industry, Cheung Kong Group intends to \"pick up the leakage\" by bargain hunting.</p><p><b>However, on September 13, according to public documents in Hong Kong, China, China Evergrande Center has recently been taken over by a receiver appointed by China CITIC Bank International, a subsidiary of creditor China CITIC Bank.</b></p><p>According to media analysis quoted by industry insiders, China Evergrande has defaulted on default, failed to repay the money on time, and tried to sell the building assets twice, but no one took over, so the lender finally decided to take over the assets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24cfd494a3a164f571329d27478f9c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the eve of the National Day, there was market news that the China Evergrande Center Building was being sold by Savills as the exclusive agent, and the bid closing date was October 31, 2022.</p><p><b>According to market estimates, the current valuation of the property is more than HK $8 billion, a discount of about 40% to Evergrande's purchase of HK $12.5 billion. The property has attracted inquiries and visits from local developers, funds and mainland buyers in Hong Kong.</b></p><p>Savills said that referring to the Murray Road project won by Henderson Land Development in 2017, the price per square foot is about HK $50,000, and the total price is about HK $32.38 billion; Another site at No. 3 Central Harbourfront, which was won in 2021, was sold at a price of approximately HK $31,000 per square foot, with a total price of HK $50.8 billion.</p><p>From the failure of two sales to the release now, Evergrande Center has already changed from a commercial landmark that Evergrande Group was proud of to a replacement chip.<b>Today, Li Ka-shing, who is good at \"hoarding land\" to make profits, still has the opportunity to buy bottoms.</b></p><p>In this regard, Feng Lun, a former real estate tycoon, said: In the mainland and Hong Kong, China, although Li Ka-shing has done many real estate projects in a down-to-earth manner, they are basically ordinary houses. He doesn't want to do a good job in this industry like Vanke, so he doesn't receive many particularly good reputations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589532854679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One day's net worth shrank by tens of billions, Li Ka-shing recovered 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne day's net worth shrank by tens of billions, Li Ka-shing recovered 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">野马财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>After its net worth shrank by tens of billions, Cheung Kong Group, a subsidiary of the Li Ka-shing family, once again relied on \"hoarding land\" to make profits.</b>Due to the sharp depreciation of the pound and euro, Li Ka-shing's family business, which has a heavy position in the European market, suffered heavy losses.</p><p>On September 23rd, the British government launched the biggest tax reduction policy in 50 years. As a result, the UK suffered a \"three kills\" of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. The pound once fell below the 1.04 mark against the US dollar, and there was a \"selling tide\" in the bond market, and the stock market plummeted.</p><p>The Bloomberg Billionaires Real-time Index shows that,<b>On September 26, Li Ka-shing had a net worth of US $26.7 billion (about 191.241 billion yuan), while the previous day, Li Ka-shing's net worth was US $28.1 billion (about 201.176 billion yuan), and 9.935 billion yuan evaporated in one day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ce18619140bf79d1941bdbdf4af7cb\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group Announcement</p><p>After experiencing a sharp decline in value,<b>On September 28, Cheung Kong Group (1113. HK) announced that it would sell property projects in Hong Kong, China, to Singapore financial institution Sino-Suisse for HK $20.766 billion (approximately 19.05 billion yuan), including the unsold portion of the luxury residential project at 21 Porao Road.</b></p><p>On the day of the transaction, the buyer had paid a deposit of HK $2.077 billion, and then paid a total of five partial payments to the seller every six months. The first two payments were HK $1.038 billion each and the last three payments were HK $2.077 billion each. In addition, the buyer is required to pay the balance upon completion of the transaction.</p><p>Cheung Kong Group said that the sale of the project will enable the company to realize its investment in the development project, and the buyer's loan will help complete the transaction.<b>The company expects the proceeds from the sale to be approximately HK $6.3 billion (approximately 5.779 billion yuan)</b>The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes of the Group.</p><p><b>\"Hoarding land\" for 11 years, a profit of 5.779 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to the data, 21 BORRETT ROAD is one of the well-known super luxury residential projects in Hong Kong, China. This transaction includes 152 residential units, 242 residential parking spaces and 31 motorcycle parking spaces.</p><p><b>In June 2011, Cheung Kong Group purchased the Bolao Road land for HK $11.65 billion, with a floor price of HK $26,763 per foot, setting a record for the second highest price in Hong Kong, China that year.</b></p><p>The land is located in the mansion area of West Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, China, with an area of about 10,500 square meters and a buildable floor area of about 40,400 square meters. It was once called \"first-class beautiful land\" by Li Zeju, chairman of Cheung Kong Group.</p><p>Since it was bought by Cheung Kong Group in 2011, it took 10 years for the project to officially go on the current floor market. Compared with the land price 10 years ago, the current average floor price has increased by more than 10 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2b1e5d766054061885687df7fd0028\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Public Account, No. 21, Cheung Shibo Lao Road</p><p><b>According to public reports, the latest transaction at No.21 Bolao Road was in June this year, with 2 sets sold, totaling nearly 400 million Hong Kong dollars (about 367 million yuan).</b></p><p>Among them, a set of Room 1, 20th Floor, Phase 1, No.21 Bolao Road Community, which was sold, was priced at 270 million yuan, with an interior area of about 273.6 square meters. According to the transaction price, its unit price reached 986,900 yuan/square meter.</p><p>Some insiders believe that the long development mode of \"hoarding land\" is a major feature of Li Ka-shing's Changshi Department, which also makes its company make a lot of profits by using this method.</p><p>Talking about Li Ka-shing's land hoarding for profit has existed for a long time. As early as 10 years ago, \"Economic Observer Network\" reported that Hutchison Whampoa, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, was included in Shanghai's official land hoarding list.</p><p>Regarding the land hoarding behavior of Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Department,<b>\"China Times\" once reported that over the years, more than ten projects of \"Changhe Department\" in nearly ten cities across the country have adopted \"snail-style\" development methods, extending the land development cycle from 6 years to more than 10 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce126a777041428467fdc98a4c7691ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with external doubts,<b>Cheung Kong Group has publicly responded that Cheung Kong's domestic real estate projects have been carried out in accordance with laws and regulations and all government procedures, and the development is slow, which is actually misunderstood, and the sale of projects is also a normal business behavior of real estate developers.</b></p><p>Today, Li Ka-shing has once again achieved a profit of HK $6.3 billion from \"hoarding land\". In the eyes of the industry, Cheung Kong can efficiently lock in considerable profits by selling all the units yet to be launched in Bolaodao to a single buyer in a few days.</p><p>The buyer of this transaction is Huarui Capital, which was founded in Singapore in 2017 and also obtained the capital market service license issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>For buyers, buying a top-class luxury house located in the rarest location in Hong Kong, China, looking around the market today, it is difficult to find a comparable high-quality property with a high return on investment value. When Hong Kong is fully opened and closed, the appreciation potential of the project should be very ideal.</p><p><b>Li Ka-shing's buying and selling</b></p><p>Since 2013, Li Ka-shing, who has been dubbed by the industry as being good at \"hoarding land\", has started to move assets and made frequent profits by selling asset projects.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, including the sale of Hong Kong Central Center and Watsons equity, the amount of assets sold by Li Ka-shing has exceeded at least 250 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time of the sale, Li Ka-shing never stopped new investments.<b>In 2021, Cheung Kong Group will spend HK $17.38 billion to purchase 4 pieces of land in Hong Kong, China through different channels, increasing the floor area of approximately 154,600 square meters for development.</b></p><p>In May of this year, Li Ka-shing reappeared in the mainland land auction market after ten years since 2012. In the auction of Baiyun Airport Avenue in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, Hutchison Whampoa, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, also participated in the bidding, but did not win the bid in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5cfa9374570c5bca3cb35fc02610b27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to a list published earlier, the market value of properties still held by Cheung Kong Group in mainland China reached 126.16 billion yuan, distributed in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Dalian and other places, among which the market value of properties available for development was 31.573 billion yuan.</p><p><b>In fact, since 2020, Cheung Kong Group has sold overseas businesses and assets many times, involving energy, communications, real estate, electricity, aircraft leasing and other sectors, including Husky, which Li Ka-shing called \"one of the most successful investments in his life\". Sky energy.</b></p><p>In March 2022, Cheung Kong Group announced the sale of its office building in London, England, for 729 million pounds (about 6 billion yuan). Cheung Kong's expected income from the sale is approximately 108 million pounds (approximately 896 million yuan).</p><p>In addition, in July this year, Cheung Kong Group was close to completing the 15 billion pound (approximately 116.813 billion yuan) sale of British Electric Power Company, but due to the last-minute price increase, the entire sale plan ultimately fell through.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8746e7839869ecee34dfb2878cef5ca3\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group financial report</p><p>The reason for this operation can be seen by analyzing its annual report data. The annual report shows that in 2021, the total revenue of Cheung Kong Group will be 62.094 billion Hong Kong dollars, of which property is the main revenue, property sales will reach 37.76 billion Hong Kong dollars, property leasing will reach 6.543 billion Hong Kong dollars, and hotel and serviced suite business will reach 2.691 billion Hong Kong dollars. Property and project management is HK $816 million, and British pub business is HK $14.284 billion.</p><p>Regardless of property sales or property leasing, Hong Kong and the Mainland account for a larger proportion.<b>In the property sales business, the sales of properties in Hong Kong, China were HK $15.724 billion, the sales of properties in the Mainland were HK $21.722 billion, and the sales of overseas properties were HK $352 million. In terms of property leasing, Hong Kong, China was HK $4.352 billion, the mainland was HK $571 million, and overseas was HK $738 million.</b></p><p>As the richest man in Hong Kong, Li Ka-shing's business actions have always attracted market attention. Since the beginning of this year, Li Ka-shing has made frequent moves, and some voices pointed out that \"Li Ka-shing is fleeing Britain\" and \"Li Ka-shing is back\".</p><p>Li Zeju responded that selling buildings is a daily business and a business, and there is no divestment. He said that the mainland and Hong Kong are the hometown of the group, and there are emotional factors, but they will still pay attention to the return on investment.</p><p><b>Is there still a chance for Evergrande Center to \"pick up the leak\"?</b></p><p>The biggest trick to \"hoard land\" to make a profit is to \"pick up leaks\" by bargain hunting. In July this year, Li Ka-shing tried to buy the bottom of China Evergrande Center.</p><p><b>On July 28, China Evergrande (3333. HK) sold China Evergrande Center for the second time in the form of competitive bidding, and the price dropped from HK $10.5 billion to HK $9 billion.</b></p><p>Prior to this, in August 2021, it was reported in the market that Evergrande offered HK $15.6 billion to seek the takeover of Hong Kong Evergrande Center. After subsequently contacting Yuexiu Real Estate, the price dropped to HK $10.5 billion, but the transaction did not take place in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b27d545b805efd24953789514ada0df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Canned Gallery</p><p>China Evergrande Center is located in the middle of downtown Wanchai, Hong Kong, China. It is a 26-storey Grade A office building with a total construction area of about 32,100 square meters. Its predecessor was the American Metrohm Building.</p><p>In 2015, China Evergrande spent HK $12.5 billion to purchase it from Chinese Real Estate (0127. HK), setting a record for commercial buildings in Hong Kong, China.</p><p>At the end of July 2022, after the China Evergrande Center was re-sold, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group submitted a tender. At that time, the property was valued at about HK $9 billion. From the perspective of the industry, Cheung Kong Group intends to \"pick up the leakage\" by bargain hunting.</p><p><b>However, on September 13, according to public documents in Hong Kong, China, China Evergrande Center has recently been taken over by a receiver appointed by China CITIC Bank International, a subsidiary of creditor China CITIC Bank.</b></p><p>According to media analysis quoted by industry insiders, China Evergrande has defaulted on default, failed to repay the money on time, and tried to sell the building assets twice, but no one took over, so the lender finally decided to take over the assets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24cfd494a3a164f571329d27478f9c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the eve of the National Day, there was market news that the China Evergrande Center Building was being sold by Savills as the exclusive agent, and the bid closing date was October 31, 2022.</p><p><b>According to market estimates, the current valuation of the property is more than HK $8 billion, a discount of about 40% to Evergrande's purchase of HK $12.5 billion. The property has attracted inquiries and visits from local developers, funds and mainland buyers in Hong Kong.</b></p><p>Savills said that referring to the Murray Road project won by Henderson Land Development in 2017, the price per square foot is about HK $50,000, and the total price is about HK $32.38 billion; Another site at No. 3 Central Harbourfront, which was won in 2021, was sold at a price of approximately HK $31,000 per square foot, with a total price of HK $50.8 billion.</p><p>From the failure of two sales to the release now, Evergrande Center has already changed from a commercial landmark that Evergrande Group was proud of to a replacement chip.<b>Today, Li Ka-shing, who is good at \"hoarding land\" to make profits, still has the opportunity to buy bottoms.</b></p><p>In this regard, Feng Lun, a former real estate tycoon, said: In the mainland and Hong Kong, China, although Li Ka-shing has done many real estate projects in a down-to-earth manner, they are basically ordinary houses. He doesn't want to do a good job in this industry like Vanke, so he doesn't receive many particularly good reputations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HN5vojZb8w407R_TggMm0A\">野马财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008f7af8c99c674df2ab1df3744f67dd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HN5vojZb8w407R_TggMm0A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143870144","content_text":"身价缩水百亿后，李嘉诚家族旗下长实集团再次依靠“囤地”获利。由于英镑和欧元大幅贬值，重仓欧洲市场的李嘉诚家族企业遭受重创。9月23日，英国政府推出50年来最大减税政策，结果导致英国遭遇股债汇“三杀”，英镑兑美元一度走下1.04关口，债市场出现“抛售潮”，股市大跌。彭博亿万富翁实时指数显示，9月26日，李嘉诚拥有267亿美元（约1912.41亿元）身家，而前一天李嘉诚身家为281亿美元（约2011.76 亿元），一天之内蒸发99.35亿元。来源：长实集团公告在经历身价大幅缩水后，9月28日，长实集团(1113.HK)公告称，将以207.66亿港元（约190.5亿元）向新加坡金融机构Sino-Suisse出售中国香港物业项目，其中包含波老道21号豪宅项目未售出部分。在交易当天，买方已经支付20.77亿港元订金，之后每6个月向卖方支付共5笔部分付款，前两笔均每笔为10.38亿港元，后三笔每笔为20.77亿港元。另外，买方须于交易完成时支付余额。长实集团表示，出售项目令公司得以变现有关发展项目投资，买方贷款将有助交易完成，公司预期出售所得收益约为63亿港元（约57.79亿元），所得款项净额将用作集团一般营运资金用途。“囤地”11年，获利57.79亿元资料显示，波老道21号（21 BORRETT ROAD）是中国香港知名的超级豪宅项目之一，本次交易包括152个住宅单位、242个住宅停车位及31个电单车停车位。2011年6月，长实集团以116.5亿港元购入波老道地皮，每尺楼面地价为26763港元，创下当年中国香港第二高价纪录。该地皮位于中国香港西半山豪宅地段，面积约1.05万平方米，可建楼面面积约4.04万平方米，曾被长实集团主席李泽钜称为\"一级靓地\"。自从2011年被长实集团买下，该项目经历10年才正式以现楼面市，和10年前地价相比，目前楼面均价上涨超过10倍。来源：长实波老道21號公众号在公开报道中，波老道21号最近一次成交是今年6月份，成交2套，合计近4亿港元（约3.67亿元）。其中，成交的一套波老道21号小区第1期20楼1室，作价2.7亿元，套内面积约273.6平方米，按成交价计算，其单价达98.69万元/平方米。有业内人士认为，采用“囤地”式的漫长开发模式是李嘉诚长实系的一大特点，这也让其公司运用这种方式获利不少。谈论李嘉诚囤地获利，此种说法存续已久。早在10年前，《经济观察网》曾报道李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔被列入了上海官方囤地名单中。对于李嘉诚长实系的囤地行为，《华夏时报》曾报道称，多年来“长和系”在全国近十个城市十余个项目，均通过“蜗牛式”开发方式，延长土地开发周期从6年到10多年不等。面对外界质疑，长实集团曾公开回应表示，长实国内的地产项目一直根据法规及所有政府程序进行，开发缓慢，实有所误解，而出售项目也属于地产商正常商业行为。如今，李嘉诚再次实现“囤地”获利63亿港元。在业内人士看来，长实几天向单一买家全数出售波老道尚待推出之单位，能有效率地锁定可观利润。而本次交易的买家为华瑞资本，于2017年在新加坡创立，并同时取得新加坡金融管理局所颁发的资本市场服务执照。对买家而言，买入座落于中国香港最珍罕地段的顶级豪宅，环顾现今市场亦难有可媲美的优质物业，具高投资值回报率，当香港全面开关后，项目之升值潜力应甚理想。李嘉诚的买与卖从2013年开始，被业界冠以擅长“囤地”的李嘉诚开启资产腾挪，并通过出售资产项目频频获利。据不完全统计，包括出售香港中环中心、屈臣氏股权等交易在内，李嘉诚卖掉的资产规模金额至少已经超过2500亿元。在出售的同时，李嘉诚始终没有停止新的投资。2021年，长实集团通过不同渠道斥资173.8亿港元在中国香港买入4幅土地，增加了约15.46万平方米楼面面积可供开发。今年5月，李嘉诚更是自2012年后时隔十年再次出现在内地土拍市场。在广州白云区的白云空港大道地块的竞拍中，李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔也参与了竞标，但最终并没有竞得。据早前公布的一份清单，长实集团在中国内地仍持有的物业市值达1261.6亿元，分布在北京、广州、上海、长沙、南京、成都、大连等地，其中可供发展的物业市值为315.73亿元。实际上，2020年以来，长实集团先后多次出售海外业务及资产，涉及能源、通讯、房地产、电力、飞机租赁等板块，其中包括被李嘉诚称为“一生最成功的投资之一”的赫斯基能源。2022年3月，长实集团宣布以7.29亿英镑(约60亿元)出售持有的英国伦敦办公楼。长实从该出售事项获得的预期收益约为1.08亿英镑(约8.96亿元)。除此之外，今年7月，长实集团曾接近完成150亿英镑（约1168.13亿元）出售英国电力公司的交易，但由于最后时刻提价，整个出售计划最终告吹。来源：长实集团财报之所以如此操作，分析其年报数据便可窥知一二。年报显示，2021年，长实集团总收入为620.94亿港元，其中物业方面为主要营收，物业销售达到377.6亿港元，物业租赁为65.43亿港元，还包括酒店及服务套房业务为26.91亿港元，物业及项目管理为8.16亿港元，英式酒馆业务为142.84亿港元。不论物业销售还是物业租赁，中国香港及内地均所占比重较大。物业销售业务中，中国香港物业销售额为157.24亿港元，内地物业销售金额为217.22亿港元，海外物业销售金额为3.52亿港元。物业租赁方面，中国香港为43.52亿港元，内地为5.71亿港元，海外为7.38亿港元。作为中国香港首富，李嘉诚的商业动作一直备受市场关注。今年以来，李嘉诚动作频频，有声音指出“李嘉诚要逃离英国”“李嘉诚回来了”。李泽钜则回应称，卖楼是日常业务和本业，并不存在撤资。他说，内地及香港是集团的家乡，存在感情因素，但仍会关注投资回报。“捡漏”恒大中心仍有机会？之所以能够“囤地”盈利，最大的诀窍就是抄底“捡漏”。今年7月份，李嘉诚曾试图抄底中国恒大中心。7月28日，中国恒大（3333.HK）第二次以竞标形式将中国恒大中心出售，价格由105亿港元降至90亿港元。在此之前，2021年8月，市场曾传出恒大开价156亿港元寻求香港恒大中心接盘方，随后与越秀地产接洽后，价格降至105亿港元，但交易最终并未成行。来源：罐头图库中国恒大中心位于中国香港湾仔闹市中央，是一栋26层高，总建筑面积约3.21万平方米的甲级写字楼，其前身为美国万通大厦。2015年，中国恒大斥资125亿港元从华人置业（0127.HK）手中将其购得，并创下了中国香港商厦买卖的最高纪录。2022年7月底，在中国恒大中心再放售后，李嘉诚旗下长实集团递交了投标书，当时该物业估值约90亿港元。在业界看来，长实集团意在抄底“捡漏”。然而，9月13日，据中国香港公开文件披露，中国恒大中心已于近日被债权人中信银行旗下中信银行国际委任接管人接管。据媒体援引业内人士分析称，中国恒大已经拖欠违约，未按时偿还款项，并且两度尝试出售大厦资产，但始终无人接盘，因此最终贷款方决定接管这一资产。在国庆前夕，有市场消息称，中国恒大中心大楼正由第一太平戴维斯独家代理出售，截标日期为2022年10月31日。据市场估算，目前该物业的估值在80亿港元以上，较恒大125亿港元的购入折价约40%。该物业已吸引了香港本地发展商、基金及内地买家询问和参观。第一太平戴维斯则表示，参照恒基兆业地产于2017年投得的美利道项目，呎价约5万港元，总价约323.8亿港元；另一个于2021年投得的中环海滨3号用地，则以呎价约3.1万港元，总价508亿港元成交。从两次出售失败到如今再次放售，恒大中心早已从原先恒大集团为之骄傲的商业地标变为置换筹码。如今，善于“囤地”获利的李嘉诚，依然有抄底的机会。对此，昔日地产大佬冯仑表示：在内地和中国香港，虽然李嘉诚也扎扎实实地做了不少房地产项目，但基本上都是普通的住宅，他不像万科那样要把这个行业彻底做好，所以他收到口碑特别好的并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916034129,"gmtCreate":1664484455761,"gmtModify":1676537462006,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[害羞]&nbsp;","listText":"[害羞]&nbsp;","text":"[害羞]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916034129","repostId":"1136112284","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136112284","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664420902,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136112284?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Large options order | Sudden big news, Apple options trading volume surged! Alibaba Put transactions account for more than 80%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136112284","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一、市场概览 （28/09）美东时间周三，在英国央行紧急干预市场后，市场情绪明显好转，美股大幅上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.88%，报29,683.74点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报3,719.","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Market Overview (28/09)</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, after the Bank of England intervened in the market urgently, market sentiment improved significantly, and U.S. stocks rose sharply. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 1.88% to 29,683.74 points; The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 3,719.04 points; The Nasdaq rose 2.05% to 11,051.64 points.</p><p>The total trading volume of the options market reached 40,683,443 contracts, higher than the 90-day average trading volume, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p>S&P Index ETF-SPY options traded 9.837 million contracts, an increase from the previous trading day, of which put options accounted for 59.4%.</p><p><b>2. Total option transaction volume TOP10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de4ebb143b5ed75172f05cc806cf8f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2134\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 1.27% at $149.84 on Wednesday. In terms of news, Apple is preparing to abandon its internally planned production increase plan of up to 6 million units after learning that demand for iPhone 14 has failed to meet expectations. 2.353 million option contracts were traded on Wednesday, compared with 1.284 million on the previous trading day, a month-on-month increase of more than 83%; Among them, put options account for 54% of all options transactions; Among them, the $150 strike call option expiring September 30, 2022 saw particularly high volume, with 159,375 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5e7bdbfb7eb7f96932d7ab239d5043\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117618958\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple stops increasing iPhone production, what do Wall Street analysts think?</b></a></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts released a research report pointing out that it is still in the early stages of the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will still be the key to determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle. At that time, the supply chain will be fed back by the additional demand for iPhones in the early stages of the release. iPhone production arrangements will also be readjusted accordingly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It closed up 4.01% on Wednesday at $80.99. CICC's latest comments stated that in 22Q3, Alibaba's cost reduction and efficiency increase were sustainable, and the overall performance of the profit side may exceed market expectations. 614,300 option contracts were traded on Wednesday, of which put options accounted for 81.5% of all option transactions; Among them, the $180 strike put expiring January 20, 2023 saw particularly high volume, with 65,960 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb9998732216cada1ff2c361bad136d\" tg-width=\"1872\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270f54105b7b5a2daa8ba5705efafe42\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1182486151\" target=\"_blank\"><b>CICC: Alibaba's 2QFY23 revenue may be under pressure, cost reduction and efficiency increase are sustainable</b></a></p><p>It is forecast that the revenue of 2QFY23 is slightly lower than the market expectation, and the non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company exceeds the market expectation; We expect Alibaba Group's 2QFY23 revenue to increase by 3% year-on-year to 207.3 billion yuan, which is 3% lower than market expectations, mainly due to the impact or pressure on Chinese businesses due to the epidemic and macro uncertainties; We expect adjusted EBITA to increase by 6% year-on-year to 29.8 billion yuan, mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency increase that exceeds expectations.<b>3. Observation of changes</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13c3cc89f7124e0b39dca5f2e9ab1da\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It closed up 9.29% at $245.2 on Wednesday. Atlantic Securities upgraded the company to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to $283 from $211. Volume was particularly high for the $250 call option with an expiry September 30, 2022 strike price, with 16,032 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3ea64e43ae75edcf71e7d99c54c448\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a>It closed up 39.85% on Wednesday at $276.61. In terms of news, the new Alzheimer's disease drug jointly developed with Eisai has made positive progress. Volume was particularly high for the $300 call option with an expiration September 30, 2022 strike price, with 8,430 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361c9cc79e3da5413ba27ff15d5cb046\" tg-width=\"1577\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Large options order | Sudden big news, Apple options trading volume surged! Alibaba Put transactions account for more than 80%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLarge options order | Sudden big news, Apple options trading volume surged! Alibaba Put transactions account for more than 80%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-29 11:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Market Overview (28/09)</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, after the Bank of England intervened in the market urgently, market sentiment improved significantly, and U.S. stocks rose sharply. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 1.88% to 29,683.74 points; The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 3,719.04 points; The Nasdaq rose 2.05% to 11,051.64 points.</p><p>The total trading volume of the options market reached 40,683,443 contracts, higher than the 90-day average trading volume, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p>S&P Index ETF-SPY options traded 9.837 million contracts, an increase from the previous trading day, of which put options accounted for 59.4%.</p><p><b>2. Total option transaction volume TOP10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de4ebb143b5ed75172f05cc806cf8f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2134\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 1.27% at $149.84 on Wednesday. In terms of news, Apple is preparing to abandon its internally planned production increase plan of up to 6 million units after learning that demand for iPhone 14 has failed to meet expectations. 2.353 million option contracts were traded on Wednesday, compared with 1.284 million on the previous trading day, a month-on-month increase of more than 83%; Among them, put options account for 54% of all options transactions; Among them, the $150 strike call option expiring September 30, 2022 saw particularly high volume, with 159,375 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5e7bdbfb7eb7f96932d7ab239d5043\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117618958\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple stops increasing iPhone production, what do Wall Street analysts think?</b></a></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts released a research report pointing out that it is still in the early stages of the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will still be the key to determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle. At that time, the supply chain will be fed back by the additional demand for iPhones in the early stages of the release. iPhone production arrangements will also be readjusted accordingly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It closed up 4.01% on Wednesday at $80.99. CICC's latest comments stated that in 22Q3, Alibaba's cost reduction and efficiency increase were sustainable, and the overall performance of the profit side may exceed market expectations. 614,300 option contracts were traded on Wednesday, of which put options accounted for 81.5% of all option transactions; Among them, the $180 strike put expiring January 20, 2023 saw particularly high volume, with 65,960 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb9998732216cada1ff2c361bad136d\" tg-width=\"1872\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270f54105b7b5a2daa8ba5705efafe42\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1182486151\" target=\"_blank\"><b>CICC: Alibaba's 2QFY23 revenue may be under pressure, cost reduction and efficiency increase are sustainable</b></a></p><p>It is forecast that the revenue of 2QFY23 is slightly lower than the market expectation, and the non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company exceeds the market expectation; We expect Alibaba Group's 2QFY23 revenue to increase by 3% year-on-year to 207.3 billion yuan, which is 3% lower than market expectations, mainly due to the impact or pressure on Chinese businesses due to the epidemic and macro uncertainties; We expect adjusted EBITA to increase by 6% year-on-year to 29.8 billion yuan, mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency increase that exceeds expectations.<b>3. Observation of changes</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13c3cc89f7124e0b39dca5f2e9ab1da\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It closed up 9.29% at $245.2 on Wednesday. Atlantic Securities upgraded the company to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to $283 from $211. Volume was particularly high for the $250 call option with an expiry September 30, 2022 strike price, with 16,032 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3ea64e43ae75edcf71e7d99c54c448\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a>It closed up 39.85% on Wednesday at $276.61. In terms of news, the new Alzheimer's disease drug jointly developed with Eisai has made positive progress. Volume was particularly high for the $300 call option with an expiration September 30, 2022 strike price, with 8,430 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361c9cc79e3da5413ba27ff15d5cb046\" tg-width=\"1577\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","NFLX":"奈飞","BIIB":"渤健公司","BABA":"阿里巴巴","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136112284","content_text":"一、市场概览 （28/09）美东时间周三，在英国央行紧急干预市场后，市场情绪明显好转，美股大幅上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.88%，报29,683.74点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报3,719.04点；纳斯达克指数涨2.05%，报11,051.64点。期权市场总成交量达40,683,443张合约，高于90日平均成交量，其中，看跌期权占比53%。标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交983.7万张合约，较前一交易日有所上涨，其中，看跌期权占比59.4%。二、期权成交总量TOP10苹果周三收跌1.27%，报149.84美元。消息面，苹果公司在得知iPhone 14的需求未能达到预期后，准备放弃内部拟定的高达600万部的增产计划。周三期权合约成交235.3万张，前一交易日为128.4万张，环比上涨逾83%；其中看跌期权占全部期权交易的54%；其中2022年9月30日到期的150美元行使价看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为159,375张。相关资讯：苹果停止增产iPhone，华尔街分析师怎么看？摩根士丹利分析师发布研报指出，目前仍处于iPhone14周期的早期阶段，未来3-5周仍将是决定iPhone 14周期强弱的关键，届时供应链将受到发布初期iPhone额外需求的反馈，iPhone生产安排也将相应地重新调整。阿里巴巴周三收涨4.01%，报80.99美元。中金最新点评称，22Q3，阿里巴巴降本增效有可持续性，利润端整体表现或超市场预期。周三期权合约成交61.43万张，其中看跌期权占全部期权交易的81.5%；其中2023年1月20日到期的180美元行使价看跌期权的成交量特别高，成交量为65,960张。相关资讯：中金：阿里2QFY23收入或承压，降本增效有可持续性预测2QFY23收入略低于市场预期，non-GAAP归母净利润超市场预期；我们预计阿里巴巴集团2QFY23收入同比增长3%至2,073亿元人民币，低于市场预期3%，主要由于中国商业受疫情和宏观不确定影响或承压；我们预计调整EBITA将同比上升6%至298亿元，主要由于降本增效超预期。三、异动观察奈飞周三收涨9.29%，报245.2美元。大西洋证券将该公司评级从“中性”上调至“增持”，并将目标价从211美元上调至283美元。2022年9月30日到期行权价为250美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为16,032张。百健周三收涨39.85%，报276.61美元。消息面，与卫材共同研发的阿尔茨海默病新药取得积极进展。2022年9月30日到期行权价为300美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为8,430张。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"BIIB":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918717777,"gmtCreate":1664456214300,"gmtModify":1676537458597,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe52d0ffe9f801f214b039a81b443127","width":"1125","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918717777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918442198,"gmtCreate":1664441581515,"gmtModify":1676537456116,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918442198","repostId":"1191634483","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191634483","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664439517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191634483?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 16:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Changes | Futures indexes all fell, and Chinese concept stocks were sluggish before the market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191634483","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股三大指数期货在盘前时段均跌超1%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 29 (Thursday), the UK unexpectedly rescued the market overnight, driving the European and American stock and bond markets to rebound collectively. Today, the global market returned to turmoil. The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell more than 1% during the premarket session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21338872e0982368b9d049f87709a866\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>It fell 20% before the market, and the two companies of Daily Youxian were executed for 1.3 million; Zhejiang Company was deregistered due to the resolution of dissolution.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 3%, and Baidu fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d290ae502a32330bffc77feb4068c9e\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 1.35%. There is news that demand for iPhone 14 is sluggish, and Apple has given up increasing production. Supply chain sources said total orders have not been adjusted.</p><p>U.S. bank stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Down 4.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Down 3.92%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Down 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>Fell 2.7%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Changes | Futures indexes all fell, and Chinese concept stocks were sluggish before the market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChanges | Futures indexes all fell, and Chinese concept stocks were sluggish before the market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-29 16:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 29 (Thursday), the UK unexpectedly rescued the market overnight, driving the European and American stock and bond markets to rebound collectively. Today, the global market returned to turmoil. The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell more than 1% during the premarket session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21338872e0982368b9d049f87709a866\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>It fell 20% before the market, and the two companies of Daily Youxian were executed for 1.3 million; Zhejiang Company was deregistered due to the resolution of dissolution.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 3%, and Baidu fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d290ae502a32330bffc77feb4068c9e\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 1.35%. There is news that demand for iPhone 14 is sluggish, and Apple has given up increasing production. Supply chain sources said total orders have not been adjusted.</p><p>U.S. bank stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Down 4.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Down 3.92%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Down 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>Fell 2.7%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191634483","content_text":"9月29日（周四），隔夜英国意外出手救市，带动欧美股债市场集体反弹，今日全球市场重回动荡。美股三大指数期货在盘前时段均跌超1%。每日优鲜盘前跌20%，每日优鲜两公司被执行130万；浙江公司注销，原因为决议解散。中概股盘前普跌，小鹏汽车跌近8%，爱奇艺、网易、京东、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度跌超2%。苹果跌1.35%，有消息称iPhone14需求低迷，苹果放弃增产。供应链人士表示总订单未调整。美股银行股盘前走低，瑞士信贷跌超5%，巴克莱银行跌4.8%，德意志银行跌3.92%，瑞银跌3.2%，汇丰控股跌2.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918492213,"gmtCreate":1664425875333,"gmtModify":1676537453135,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","text":"$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918492213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918937442,"gmtCreate":1664313628287,"gmtModify":1676537428609,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918937442","repostId":"1140617695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140617695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664176713,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140617695?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 15:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Jobs' old capital ate for 11 years: fat Cook and thin scalper","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140617695","media":"雪豹财经社","summary":"今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Yan Xuegong</p><p>A scalper earned six figures this year, only one-third of previous years, but he is already considered the best among scalpers. This year's market is destined to earn less and lose more. Some scalpers have lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. Scalpers who once made a lot of money from Apple stumbled after the launch of the iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under the helm of Jobs, once built a golden age for scalpers to get rich overnight. The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, when some dealers discovered that Apple's new opportunity was cold for the first time. The iPhone 13 released last year has become the last residual warmth of the scalper business boom.</p><p>Apple is firmly on the throne of the world's highest technology company by market value, but Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world. In the eyes of some fruit powders, Apple is losing its soul of innovation and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-making company.</p><p>Jobs's old capital has been eaten for 11 years, and Apple once again ushered in the embarrassing moment of word-of-mouth overturning.</p><p>The iPhone 14, which was criticized as \"having no innovation and losing its soul\", was left out in the cold by consumers and criticized by big Vs. It also put the \"scalpers\" who made a lot of money in the Jobs era into the pit. Some people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars a day. The former golden apple has become a bitter fruit that many scalpers can't swallow.</p><p>Over the past 11 years, with its dazzling brand aura and huge commercial potential, Apple has firmly occupied the throne of the world's most valuable technology company, with its revenue increasing by nearly 2.5 times and its market value increasing by more than 6 times. However, Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world.</p><p>Regarding the topic of \"Cook unlocking Apple's innovation label\", there will be a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Jobs' daughter complained that the iPhone 14 was nothing new, and economist Ren Zeping bluntly said that \"the iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's prosperity and decline.\"</p><p>The rollover of the iPhone 14 woke up the scalpers who were still immersed in the feast and carnival of the past. The fanaticism of the Jobs era still exists, but the chill has arrived. It is their top priority to rush to the next battlefield non-stop and earn more profits.</p><p><b>A bet that must be lost</b></p><p>\"I made thorough preparations, but I didn't expect to lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized his own battle situation since the iPhone 14 was released three days ago.</p><p>In order to fight the annual battle of Apple's new products, experienced Ye Jingyue has drawn up a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7 o'clock on the morning of September 16th, he and his team stayed at three Apple stores in Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun and Heshenghui, Beijing. \"There are only 3 people in our team, and there are 15 foreign aid queued temporarily.\"</p><p>They hire people to queue up for sale at the price of 100 yuan per person. These people may be students and housewives, and they will be paid whether they get them or not. Three people from Ye Jingyue's team are waiting on the side. If the hired person grabs the mobile phone, they will show up to pay, and then take the new phone and sell it to the users in line at a higher price.</p><p>Ye Jingyue, who has done his homework, has a very clear goal. The night before Apple's release day, he gave the foreign aid a task: \"This year we will only grab the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, and purple is the top priority style.\"</p><p>On the first day, he grabbed two 14 Pros at the original price, and sold them at an increase of 1,000 yuan, earning 2,000 yuan. But then after buying more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. \"When I first got the mobile phone, I felt very happy. I thought that I would resell it with a price increase of about 3,000 yuan, and there was still a profit of 1,500 yuan for each one.\" He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"But after I got the mobile phone, I found that I couldn't sell it at all.\"</p><p>The dive in the premium of Apple's new phone came faster than Ye Jingyue imagined. By noon that day, he had noticed something wrong, and only shouted at the \"original price\" of a premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one cared. On the first day, most of Ye Jingyue's mobile phones were sold at a price increase of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the next two days, as the premium of Apple's new machine plunged in the scalper market, the loss gradually expanded.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is far more than the only scalper who has stumbled on Apple's new products.</p><p>\"The scalpers lost the bet, and there is no winner this year.\" Lu Fan, who has been a mobile phone dealer since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"The price was too high before the sale this year. After I got the phone before the sale, my peers They all set the premium of the 14 Pro Max purple model at around 3,000 yuan, and the ultra-high profit aroused the gambling nature of scalpers.\"</p><p>Most of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lu Fan got were \"robbed\" by scalpers who increased their prices by more than 1,500 yuan. \"There is no way, they gave too much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after release Source: Provided by Lu Fan</p><p>Lu Fan has been dealing with scalpers for many years, and he divides scalpers into three levels: high, middle and low.</p><p>The lowest level is the newbies who follow the trend, and these people have lost the worst this year. Intermediate people have their own team and can snap up mobile phones at the original price. Advanced scalpers can be one step ahead of others and have ordered goods from distributors before they are released. According to this year's market, only senior scalpers have the opportunity to make a small profit.</p><p>Li Nan, who directly booked a batch of new machines from dealers, is one of the lucky ones who made a small profit. But in his view, \"for products like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that before he places an order every time, he will receive a pre-order from his customer base and personal friends to determine the purchase quantity. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least by more than half\".</p><p>Loyal customers who have bought new Apple phones at higher prices have calmed down a lot this year. Most of the reasons why they are no longer enthusiastic point to the criticism of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. A customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think it's worth showing off to be the first to get a mobile phone that is very similar to the iPhone 13 in my hand.\"</p><p>If the fruit powder is calm, the scalper's wallet will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only 1/3 of previous years, but he is already a leader among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that this year's market is destined to make less profits and lose more, and some peers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail investors back stab scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, Mr. Scalper.\" On the night of the first day Apple's new phone went on sale, Liu Wei published such a circle of friends.</p><p>On the same day, after he bought two iPhone 14 Pros, he was stopped by a scalper at the door. Each one increased the price by 1,800 yuan and sold the phone to the other party, earning a difference of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Liu Wei, who smelled the business opportunity, gathered several classmates that night to snap up the iPhone 14 Pro together. In his view, this is a steady business. It's best to sell it to scalpers. If you can't sell it, you can get an unconditional refund within 14 days. He said with a smile, \"There will always be scalpers to take over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei who harvest scalpers in reverse are called \"scalper hunters\" on the Internet. Among the foreign aid of the scalper team, some people found out the doorway and began to \"back-stab\" the scalper.</p><p>Among the foreign aid hired by Ye Jingyue to queue up, two people snapped up the new phone and \"turned against the water\" on the spot. They refused to pay for it by Ye Jingyue's team. Instead, they bought their mobile phones themselves and sold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price when they went out. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm simply working for them.\"</p><p>The more advanced scalper hunter in Lu Fan's eyes is an Apple distributor.</p><p>In order to heat up the market, big dealers released news after getting the mobile phone, jointly raised the price of new products to a very high level, and targeted the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". Not much of the first batch of premium mobile phones went to ordinary users, but most of them were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The most upstream dealers have some stable profits and certain premium rights. The midstream scalpers earn the price difference by buying and selling, and the most downstream scalpers are users who are eager to get new phones first. They are the ones who ultimately pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the word-of-mouth of iPhone 14 has overturned, turning this hidden trading market under the water into a game of more losses and less wins. The profits of dealers are still relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of fruit powders suddenly cooled down, and the pressure was transmitted to the scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, who are still immersed in the dream of \"one machine profiteering\" apple feast and don't want to wake up, suddenly become the targets of reverse harvest by hunters.</p><p><b>Say goodbye to the golden age</b></p><p>Scalpers who dare to gamble on huge profits have witnessed the dream of huge wealth created by Apple mobile phones.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Jobs, wearing a black sweater and jeans, appeared with an iPhone 4 in his hand, which became a milestone in the history of smartphones and started the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"iPhone 4 is an epoch-making product, and the market is extremely enthusiastic. A 5,000-yuan mobile phone, no matter what channel you get it, will be sold for 15,000 yuan.\" Lu Fan, who graduated from 985 college, smelled the business opportunity and started the business of reselling Apple mobile phones. At that time, in order to snap up Apple mobile phones, scalpers took tents and stayed 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City, Beijing.</p><p>As a generation of Apple's magic machine, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units within three days of its launch, and the demand exceeded supply. At that time, the first sale time in the domestic market was about 4 months late. Taking advantage of this time difference, scalpers made a lot of money.</p><p>Lu Fan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that he found that the Apple store in Hong Kong was limited to 5 units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up, and the biggest order earned hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"At that time, the scalper team that was a little more diligent earned millions in three months.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, finding a scalper to buy an iPhone 4 still needed to increase the price of 1,000 yuan.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Lu Fan discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold.</p><p>Lu Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at that time, recalled that the iPhone 8 didn't sell very well, the phenomenon of queuing in Apple stores and Zhongguancun was greatly reduced, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was also at this time that the outside world criticized Apple's lack of innovation rampant. From iPhone 5 to iPhone 8, several generations of Apple products have been spit out as too similar in appearance, just like \"four generations under one roof\", and there is no substantial innovation in functions.</p><p>The iPhone X, which was highly anticipated, gave scalpers a slap in the face with a colder market reaction. Users don't buy this so-called \"unprecedented smartphone\". The two most proud innovations of iPhone X-full screen and face recognition-are considered to be no longer the first.</p><p>Scalpers lost money, and Apple lost even worse. After the poor sales of iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production. The stock price once plummeted by more than 7%, and the market value of more than 60 billion US dollars evaporated.</p><p>When the iPhone X is cold, Apple's innovation ability is pulled down from the altar, and the space for scalpers to earn the price difference is shrinking day by day. The price increase of a new machine is usually a few hundred yuan less, which is far from the hard-to-find machine before the iPhone 6S, and the price doubles at every turn.</p><p>The iPhone 13 released last year has become the last residual warmth of the scalper business boom.</p><p>At that time, the world was short of cores, and Apple encountered a supply chain crisis. The relationship between supply and demand in the special period has allowed scalpers to find an opportunity. Ye Jingyue concluded afterwards, \"It's not that the iPhone 13 is so popular, but that Apple didn't stock up so much at the first time, and that point in time became a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 doesn't have such luck. On the one hand, the new machine is almost indistinguishable from the previous generation product. \"Dynamic Island is not smart\", many bugs are exposed, and new functions are repeatedly overturned. On the other hand, Cook learned a lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of the iPhone 14. The supply of new phones is very sufficient. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the soil for scalpers to make money is getting poorer and poorer.</p><p><b>The inflection point of prosperity and decline?</b></p><p>After staying up late to watch this year's new product launch conference, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind not to find scalpers to snap up new phones this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and has increased the price more than once to buy the first new phone. In her view, taking the lead in exposing the latest iPhone is not to show off wealth, but to reflect a pursuit of top new technology consumer products. \"This is very geek\". But the iPhone 14 made her feel, \"It's not geek at all to grab this overly similar model.\"</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is recognized as being more than conservative and less enterprising.</p><p>Since \"extraordinary\" was designated as the slogan in 1997, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. In the Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, and relied on it to secure the top spot among technology companies.</p><p>But since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has made few eye-catching innovations, and has even gradually reduced from the role of leader to a follower. The iPhone 6, which has achieved success in sales, is Apple's first large-screen mobile phone, and it is considered to have followed in the footsteps of Samsung and other brands. The iPhone 14's Dynamic Island and other features have also been questioned of copying Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly said on social platforms, \"Apple is eating Jobs' capital\", and even believed that 2022 was the turning point for Apple's prosperity and decline.</p><p>There is no denying that Apple under Cook has achieved great success in terms of sales volume and the company's market value. Part of the reason is that Apple's mobile phones, which used to be expensive, have begun to \"bow their heads\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noticed that starting from iPhone 11, Apple mobile phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of iPhone 11 has dropped from 6,499 yuan of the previous generation iPhone XR to 5,499 yuan. On the other hand, the price of flagship phones in the Android camp continues to rise. The OPPO Find X2 Pro version starts at 5,999 yuan, and the Xiaomi Mi 10 Extreme version also starts at 5,299 yuan, which is the same as or even higher than the iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued its strategy of not increasing the price of new phones.</p><p>Today, the old capital left by Jobs is still enough for Apple to eat for a while. According to data from Counterpoint Research, in Q2 of 2022, Apple will still occupy more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a historical record for the iPhone since 2007 with a 57% market share, and capturing more than 60% of the global mobile phone profits.</p><p>Fruit powder like Hu Yiwen will not easily abandon apples. Although the innovation is insufficient, the annual stable update of hardware (mainly chips) and the stable software system still have great attraction to them.</p><p>In other words, the huge potential energy created in the Jobs era is enough to make the Apple empire, which is slightly mediocre in innovation, continue to slide forward by inertia. However, with the fading of apple's aura, the cold cicadas who know autumn have faintly smelled the chill and felt the consequences of lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lu Fan, a mobile phone dealer who relies on Apple for a living, Apple is still the bulk of his revenue. \"Whether the scalper fails or not will not affect all this, and the sun will rise as usual.\"</p><p>Scalpers who make money by scarcity and time difference have no time to grieve the spring and autumn. It is their top priority to rush to the next battlefield non-stop and earn more profits.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has made every effort to switch to Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that the premium level of Huawei's new phones has been relatively stable. At present, the lowest configuration has to increase the price by 1,000 yuan. The rarest Porsche model has been fired to more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which is still standing at the top of the pyramid and integrates the world's top software and hardware, the iPhone 14 cannot become a swan song. But the final chapter of scalpers' dream of getting rich may play a prelude to the end of Apple's winning.</p><p>(The characters in this article are all pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1634697401643","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs' old capital ate for 11 years: fat Cook and thin scalper</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs' old capital ate for 11 years: fat Cook and thin scalper\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪豹财经社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-26 15:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Yan Xuegong</p><p>A scalper earned six figures this year, only one-third of previous years, but he is already considered the best among scalpers. This year's market is destined to earn less and lose more. Some scalpers have lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. Scalpers who once made a lot of money from Apple stumbled after the launch of the iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under the helm of Jobs, once built a golden age for scalpers to get rich overnight. The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, when some dealers discovered that Apple's new opportunity was cold for the first time. The iPhone 13 released last year has become the last residual warmth of the scalper business boom.</p><p>Apple is firmly on the throne of the world's highest technology company by market value, but Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world. In the eyes of some fruit powders, Apple is losing its soul of innovation and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-making company.</p><p>Jobs's old capital has been eaten for 11 years, and Apple once again ushered in the embarrassing moment of word-of-mouth overturning.</p><p>The iPhone 14, which was criticized as \"having no innovation and losing its soul\", was left out in the cold by consumers and criticized by big Vs. It also put the \"scalpers\" who made a lot of money in the Jobs era into the pit. Some people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars a day. The former golden apple has become a bitter fruit that many scalpers can't swallow.</p><p>Over the past 11 years, with its dazzling brand aura and huge commercial potential, Apple has firmly occupied the throne of the world's most valuable technology company, with its revenue increasing by nearly 2.5 times and its market value increasing by more than 6 times. However, Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world.</p><p>Regarding the topic of \"Cook unlocking Apple's innovation label\", there will be a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Jobs' daughter complained that the iPhone 14 was nothing new, and economist Ren Zeping bluntly said that \"the iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's prosperity and decline.\"</p><p>The rollover of the iPhone 14 woke up the scalpers who were still immersed in the feast and carnival of the past. The fanaticism of the Jobs era still exists, but the chill has arrived. It is their top priority to rush to the next battlefield non-stop and earn more profits.</p><p><b>A bet that must be lost</b></p><p>\"I made thorough preparations, but I didn't expect to lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized his own battle situation since the iPhone 14 was released three days ago.</p><p>In order to fight the annual battle of Apple's new products, experienced Ye Jingyue has drawn up a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7 o'clock on the morning of September 16th, he and his team stayed at three Apple stores in Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun and Heshenghui, Beijing. \"There are only 3 people in our team, and there are 15 foreign aid queued temporarily.\"</p><p>They hire people to queue up for sale at the price of 100 yuan per person. These people may be students and housewives, and they will be paid whether they get them or not. Three people from Ye Jingyue's team are waiting on the side. If the hired person grabs the mobile phone, they will show up to pay, and then take the new phone and sell it to the users in line at a higher price.</p><p>Ye Jingyue, who has done his homework, has a very clear goal. The night before Apple's release day, he gave the foreign aid a task: \"This year we will only grab the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, and purple is the top priority style.\"</p><p>On the first day, he grabbed two 14 Pros at the original price, and sold them at an increase of 1,000 yuan, earning 2,000 yuan. But then after buying more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. \"When I first got the mobile phone, I felt very happy. I thought that I would resell it with a price increase of about 3,000 yuan, and there was still a profit of 1,500 yuan for each one.\" He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"But after I got the mobile phone, I found that I couldn't sell it at all.\"</p><p>The dive in the premium of Apple's new phone came faster than Ye Jingyue imagined. By noon that day, he had noticed something wrong, and only shouted at the \"original price\" of a premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one cared. On the first day, most of Ye Jingyue's mobile phones were sold at a price increase of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the next two days, as the premium of Apple's new machine plunged in the scalper market, the loss gradually expanded.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is far more than the only scalper who has stumbled on Apple's new products.</p><p>\"The scalpers lost the bet, and there is no winner this year.\" Lu Fan, who has been a mobile phone dealer since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"The price was too high before the sale this year. After I got the phone before the sale, my peers They all set the premium of the 14 Pro Max purple model at around 3,000 yuan, and the ultra-high profit aroused the gambling nature of scalpers.\"</p><p>Most of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lu Fan got were \"robbed\" by scalpers who increased their prices by more than 1,500 yuan. \"There is no way, they gave too much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after release Source: Provided by Lu Fan</p><p>Lu Fan has been dealing with scalpers for many years, and he divides scalpers into three levels: high, middle and low.</p><p>The lowest level is the newbies who follow the trend, and these people have lost the worst this year. Intermediate people have their own team and can snap up mobile phones at the original price. Advanced scalpers can be one step ahead of others and have ordered goods from distributors before they are released. According to this year's market, only senior scalpers have the opportunity to make a small profit.</p><p>Li Nan, who directly booked a batch of new machines from dealers, is one of the lucky ones who made a small profit. But in his view, \"for products like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that before he places an order every time, he will receive a pre-order from his customer base and personal friends to determine the purchase quantity. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least by more than half\".</p><p>Loyal customers who have bought new Apple phones at higher prices have calmed down a lot this year. Most of the reasons why they are no longer enthusiastic point to the criticism of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. A customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think it's worth showing off to be the first to get a mobile phone that is very similar to the iPhone 13 in my hand.\"</p><p>If the fruit powder is calm, the scalper's wallet will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only 1/3 of previous years, but he is already a leader among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that this year's market is destined to make less profits and lose more, and some peers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail investors back stab scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, Mr. Scalper.\" On the night of the first day Apple's new phone went on sale, Liu Wei published such a circle of friends.</p><p>On the same day, after he bought two iPhone 14 Pros, he was stopped by a scalper at the door. Each one increased the price by 1,800 yuan and sold the phone to the other party, earning a difference of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Liu Wei, who smelled the business opportunity, gathered several classmates that night to snap up the iPhone 14 Pro together. In his view, this is a steady business. It's best to sell it to scalpers. If you can't sell it, you can get an unconditional refund within 14 days. He said with a smile, \"There will always be scalpers to take over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei who harvest scalpers in reverse are called \"scalper hunters\" on the Internet. Among the foreign aid of the scalper team, some people found out the doorway and began to \"back-stab\" the scalper.</p><p>Among the foreign aid hired by Ye Jingyue to queue up, two people snapped up the new phone and \"turned against the water\" on the spot. They refused to pay for it by Ye Jingyue's team. Instead, they bought their mobile phones themselves and sold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price when they went out. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm simply working for them.\"</p><p>The more advanced scalper hunter in Lu Fan's eyes is an Apple distributor.</p><p>In order to heat up the market, big dealers released news after getting the mobile phone, jointly raised the price of new products to a very high level, and targeted the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". Not much of the first batch of premium mobile phones went to ordinary users, but most of them were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The most upstream dealers have some stable profits and certain premium rights. The midstream scalpers earn the price difference by buying and selling, and the most downstream scalpers are users who are eager to get new phones first. They are the ones who ultimately pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the word-of-mouth of iPhone 14 has overturned, turning this hidden trading market under the water into a game of more losses and less wins. The profits of dealers are still relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of fruit powders suddenly cooled down, and the pressure was transmitted to the scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, who are still immersed in the dream of \"one machine profiteering\" apple feast and don't want to wake up, suddenly become the targets of reverse harvest by hunters.</p><p><b>Say goodbye to the golden age</b></p><p>Scalpers who dare to gamble on huge profits have witnessed the dream of huge wealth created by Apple mobile phones.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Jobs, wearing a black sweater and jeans, appeared with an iPhone 4 in his hand, which became a milestone in the history of smartphones and started the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"iPhone 4 is an epoch-making product, and the market is extremely enthusiastic. A 5,000-yuan mobile phone, no matter what channel you get it, will be sold for 15,000 yuan.\" Lu Fan, who graduated from 985 college, smelled the business opportunity and started the business of reselling Apple mobile phones. At that time, in order to snap up Apple mobile phones, scalpers took tents and stayed 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City, Beijing.</p><p>As a generation of Apple's magic machine, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units within three days of its launch, and the demand exceeded supply. At that time, the first sale time in the domestic market was about 4 months late. Taking advantage of this time difference, scalpers made a lot of money.</p><p>Lu Fan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that he found that the Apple store in Hong Kong was limited to 5 units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up, and the biggest order earned hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"At that time, the scalper team that was a little more diligent earned millions in three months.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, finding a scalper to buy an iPhone 4 still needed to increase the price of 1,000 yuan.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Lu Fan discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold.</p><p>Lu Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at that time, recalled that the iPhone 8 didn't sell very well, the phenomenon of queuing in Apple stores and Zhongguancun was greatly reduced, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was also at this time that the outside world criticized Apple's lack of innovation rampant. From iPhone 5 to iPhone 8, several generations of Apple products have been spit out as too similar in appearance, just like \"four generations under one roof\", and there is no substantial innovation in functions.</p><p>The iPhone X, which was highly anticipated, gave scalpers a slap in the face with a colder market reaction. Users don't buy this so-called \"unprecedented smartphone\". The two most proud innovations of iPhone X-full screen and face recognition-are considered to be no longer the first.</p><p>Scalpers lost money, and Apple lost even worse. After the poor sales of iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production. The stock price once plummeted by more than 7%, and the market value of more than 60 billion US dollars evaporated.</p><p>When the iPhone X is cold, Apple's innovation ability is pulled down from the altar, and the space for scalpers to earn the price difference is shrinking day by day. The price increase of a new machine is usually a few hundred yuan less, which is far from the hard-to-find machine before the iPhone 6S, and the price doubles at every turn.</p><p>The iPhone 13 released last year has become the last residual warmth of the scalper business boom.</p><p>At that time, the world was short of cores, and Apple encountered a supply chain crisis. The relationship between supply and demand in the special period has allowed scalpers to find an opportunity. Ye Jingyue concluded afterwards, \"It's not that the iPhone 13 is so popular, but that Apple didn't stock up so much at the first time, and that point in time became a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 doesn't have such luck. On the one hand, the new machine is almost indistinguishable from the previous generation product. \"Dynamic Island is not smart\", many bugs are exposed, and new functions are repeatedly overturned. On the other hand, Cook learned a lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of the iPhone 14. The supply of new phones is very sufficient. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the soil for scalpers to make money is getting poorer and poorer.</p><p><b>The inflection point of prosperity and decline?</b></p><p>After staying up late to watch this year's new product launch conference, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind not to find scalpers to snap up new phones this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and has increased the price more than once to buy the first new phone. In her view, taking the lead in exposing the latest iPhone is not to show off wealth, but to reflect a pursuit of top new technology consumer products. \"This is very geek\". But the iPhone 14 made her feel, \"It's not geek at all to grab this overly similar model.\"</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is recognized as being more than conservative and less enterprising.</p><p>Since \"extraordinary\" was designated as the slogan in 1997, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. In the Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, and relied on it to secure the top spot among technology companies.</p><p>But since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has made few eye-catching innovations, and has even gradually reduced from the role of leader to a follower. The iPhone 6, which has achieved success in sales, is Apple's first large-screen mobile phone, and it is considered to have followed in the footsteps of Samsung and other brands. The iPhone 14's Dynamic Island and other features have also been questioned of copying Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly said on social platforms, \"Apple is eating Jobs' capital\", and even believed that 2022 was the turning point for Apple's prosperity and decline.</p><p>There is no denying that Apple under Cook has achieved great success in terms of sales volume and the company's market value. Part of the reason is that Apple's mobile phones, which used to be expensive, have begun to \"bow their heads\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noticed that starting from iPhone 11, Apple mobile phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of iPhone 11 has dropped from 6,499 yuan of the previous generation iPhone XR to 5,499 yuan. On the other hand, the price of flagship phones in the Android camp continues to rise. The OPPO Find X2 Pro version starts at 5,999 yuan, and the Xiaomi Mi 10 Extreme version also starts at 5,299 yuan, which is the same as or even higher than the iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued its strategy of not increasing the price of new phones.</p><p>Today, the old capital left by Jobs is still enough for Apple to eat for a while. According to data from Counterpoint Research, in Q2 of 2022, Apple will still occupy more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a historical record for the iPhone since 2007 with a 57% market share, and capturing more than 60% of the global mobile phone profits.</p><p>Fruit powder like Hu Yiwen will not easily abandon apples. Although the innovation is insufficient, the annual stable update of hardware (mainly chips) and the stable software system still have great attraction to them.</p><p>In other words, the huge potential energy created in the Jobs era is enough to make the Apple empire, which is slightly mediocre in innovation, continue to slide forward by inertia. However, with the fading of apple's aura, the cold cicadas who know autumn have faintly smelled the chill and felt the consequences of lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lu Fan, a mobile phone dealer who relies on Apple for a living, Apple is still the bulk of his revenue. \"Whether the scalper fails or not will not affect all this, and the sun will rise as usual.\"</p><p>Scalpers who make money by scarcity and time difference have no time to grieve the spring and autumn. It is their top priority to rush to the next battlefield non-stop and earn more profits.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has made every effort to switch to Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that the premium level of Huawei's new phones has been relatively stable. At present, the lowest configuration has to increase the price by 1,000 yuan. The rarest Porsche model has been fired to more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which is still standing at the top of the pyramid and integrates the world's top software and hardware, the iPhone 14 cannot become a swan song. But the final chapter of scalpers' dream of getting rich may play a prelude to the end of Apple's winning.</p><p>(The characters in this article are all pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml\">雪豹财经社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f2cbfd4e34e8ec82c7adfe60fe60a9","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140617695","content_text":"文/闫学功一位黄牛今年赚了六位数，只有往年的三分之一，但在黄牛党中已算佼佼者。今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。曾靠苹果赚得盆满钵满的黄牛们在iPhone 14推出后栽了跟头。乔布斯掌舵下的苹果，曾为黄牛构筑了一夜暴富的黄金时代。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，有经销商头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。而去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，但执掌这艘超级航母取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。在一些果粉眼中，苹果正在失去创新的灵魂，逐渐沦为一家平庸的造富公司。乔布斯的老本吃了11年，苹果又一次迎来了口碑翻车的尴尬时刻。被诟病“毫无创新，失去灵魂”的iPhone 14，被消费者冷落，被大V吐槽，也让在乔布斯时代赚得盆满钵满的“黄牛们”踩到了坑里，有人一天净亏几十万元。曾经的金苹果，成为不少黄牛眼中难以下咽的苦果。11年来，凭借耀眼的品牌光环和巨大的商业势能，苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，营收增长了近2.5倍，市值涨了6倍多。但执掌这艘超级航母并取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。关于“库克揭下苹果创新标签”的话题，在几乎每一次新品发布后都会掀起一波讨论的热潮。乔布斯女儿吐槽iPhone 14毫无新意，经济学家任泽平直言“iPhone 14可能是苹果盛极而衰的标志”。iPhone 14的翻车，惊醒了还沉浸在昔日盛宴狂欢中的黄牛们。乔布斯时代的狂热余温尚存，但寒意已至。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。一场必输的赌局“做了万全的准备，没想到还是亏了四五万。”做了3年黄牛的叶静跃叹了口气，总结iPhone 14发售3天以来自己的战况。为了打好一年一度的苹果新品之战，经验丰富的叶静跃拟定了一份翔实的方案。9月16日早上7点，他和他的团队便分别在北京朝阳大悦城、三里屯和合生汇的3家苹果门店蹲守。“我们团队只有3人，算上临时雇的排队外援，有15个。”他们以每人100元的价格雇人排队抢售，这些人可能是学生、家庭主妇，不管抢没抢到都会付报酬。叶静跃团队3人则在一旁蹲守，如果雇来的人抢到手机，他们就会现身付款，随后便拿着新机向排队的用户加价售卖。做足功课的叶静跃目标十分清晰。苹果发售日前一天晚上，他便给外援们下了任务：“今年只抢iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max，紫色是最优先款式。”第一天，他以原价抢到了两台14 Pro，转手加价1000元卖出，赚了2000元。但随后以1500元的溢价从用户手中收购了20多台后，他便开始亏损。“刚拿到手机时觉得很开心，想着一台加价3000元左右倒卖，每台还有1500元的利润。”他告诉雪豹财经社，“但手机到手后，发现根本卖不出去。”苹果新机溢价的跳水，比叶静跃想象中来得快。他到当天中午已经觉察不对，只以1500元溢价的“原价”吆喝，但已无人问津。第一天，叶静跃大部分手机加价600元左右卖出，亏了两万元。此后两天，随着苹果新机溢价在黄牛市场的跳水，亏损逐渐扩大。在苹果新品上栽了跟头的黄牛，远不止叶静跃一人。“黄牛们赌输了，今年没有赢家。”从iPhone 4时代开始做手机经销商的吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，“今年发售前价格被炒得太高，我在发售前拿到机子后，同行们都将14 Pro Max紫色款的溢价定在3000元左右，超高利润唤起了黄牛们的赌性。”吕樊拿到的第一批14 Pro，绝大部分被加价1500元以上的黄牛们“抢”走了，“没办法，他们给的太多了”。首日与发售3日后价格对比  图源：吕樊提供吕樊长年跟黄牛打交道，他将黄牛党分为高中低三个层级。最低层级的是跟风的新手，这些人今年赔得最惨。中级的自己有团队，能以原价抢购到手机。高级黄牛则能够先人一步，在发售前便已从销商手中订到货。按照今年的行情，只有高级黄牛才有机会小赚一笔。从经销商手中直接预订了一批新机的李楠，是小赚一笔的幸运儿之一。但在他看来，“对于苹果这种产品来说，小赚就是亏。”李楠告诉雪豹财经社，他每次订货前，都会在客户群和个人好友那里收到预订单，以此来确定进货数量。但今年预订的客户明显减少，“起码少了一大半”。曾不惜加价购买苹果新机的忠实客户今年冷静了许多，他们不再热忱的理由大多指向对iPhone 14缺乏创新的诟病。有客户告诉李楠，“我不觉得率先拿到一款与我手中iPhone 13极其相似的手机，有什么炫耀的价值。”果粉冷静，黄牛的钱包必然缩水。李楠今年赚了六位数，只有往年的1/3，但在黄牛党中已经算是佼佼者。他告诉雪豹财经社，今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有的同行已经亏了四五十万元。散户背刺黄牛“谢谢你，黄牛君。”苹果新机开售首日晚上，刘威发表了这样一条朋友圈。当天，他买到两台iPhone 14 Pro后，便被门口的黄牛拦下，每台加价1800元把手机卖给对方，赚了3600元差价。嗅到商机的刘威当晚便召集了几个同学，一起去抢购iPhone 14 Pro。在他看来，这是一桩稳赚不赔的生意。能卖给黄牛最好，卖不出去还可以14天无条件退款。他笑称，“总会有黄牛们接盘。”像刘威这样反向收割黄牛的个人散户，在网上被称为“黄牛猎手”。黄牛团队的外援中，也有人摸清了门道，开始“背刺”黄牛。叶静跃雇来排队的外援中，有两个人抢购到新机后当场“反水”，拒绝叶静跃团队代为付钱，而是自己买下手机，出门就高价转手卖给了另一波黄牛。在叶静跃看来，“我简直是在给他们打工。”吕樊眼中更高级的黄牛猎手，是苹果经销商。为了炒热市场，大经销商们在拿到手机后就对外放出消息，联合将新品价格炒到很高，并瞄定紫色iPhone 14 Pro Max为今年的“溢价王”。第一批溢价手机没有多少流到普通用户手中，而是大部分高价卖给了黄牛。以往的苹果黄牛市场就像一个漏斗。最上游的经销商拥有一部分稳定的利润和一定的溢价权。中游的黄牛通过倒买倒卖赚取差价，最下游的是急于抢先拿到新机的用户，他们是最终为高溢价买单的人。但iPhone 14的口碑翻车，让这个水面下的隐秘交易市场，变成了一个输多赢少的牌局。经销商的利润仍然相对稳定，但果粉的热情骤然降温，压力便被传导到了黄牛们身上。依旧沉浸在“一机暴利”的苹果盛宴梦中不愿醒来的黄牛，突然成了被猎手们反向收割的对象。告别黄金时代敢砸钱赌暴利的黄牛们，曾见证过苹果手机造就的巨大财富梦幻。12年前，身穿黑色毛衣、牛仔裤的乔布斯手拿iPhone 4亮相，成为智能手机历史上的里程碑，也开启了黄牛的黄金时代。“iPhone 4算是划时代的产品，市场热情的不得了，一台5000元的手机，不管任何渠道拿到，转手就是15000元卖出去。”985高校毕业的吕樊嗅到商机，做起了倒卖苹果手机的生意。当时，为了抢购苹果手机，黄牛们带着帐篷，在北京三里屯和大悦城提前48小时蹲守。作为苹果的一代神机，首批iPhone 4上市3天就售出了170万部，而且供不应求。当时，国内市场的首售时间晚了4个月左右，利用这段时间差，黄牛们赚得盆满钵满。吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，他当时发现香港的苹果店每人限购5台，于是组织了一行人坐飞机去香港排队，最大的一单赚了几十万元。“那时候稍微勤快点的黄牛团队，3个月下来赚百万都算少的。”甚至一年后iPhone 4S推出时，找黄牛买iPhone 4仍需要加价1000元。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，那是吕樊头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。当时已经是苹果经销商的吕樊回忆道，iPhone 8卖得不是很好，苹果门店和中关村排队的现象大幅减少，不少高价囤货的黄牛党亏了钱。也正是在这个时候，外界对苹果缺乏创新的批判甚嚣尘上。从iPhone 5到iPhone 8，苹果几代产品被吐槽外形过于相似，好比“四世同堂”，功能也没有实质性革新。被寄予厚望的iPhone X，以更冷淡的市场反应给了黄牛们一记耳光。用户对这款号称“从未有过的智能手机”并不买账，iPhone X 最得意的两个创新——全面屏和人脸识别，被认为早已不是首创。黄牛们亏钱，苹果损失更惨。iPhone X销量不佳后苹果屡次减产，股价一度暴跌7%以上，超600亿美元市值蒸发。iPhone X遇冷，苹果的创新能力被拉下神坛，黄牛们赚差价的空间日渐缩小。一台新机通常加价小几百元，与iPhone 6S之前的一机难求、动辄价格翻倍相差甚远。去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。彼时正值全球缺芯，苹果遭遇供应链危机。特殊时期的供需关系，让黄牛们找到了可乘之机。叶静跃事后总结道，“并不是iPhone 13多受欢迎，而是苹果在第一时间没有那么多备货，那个时间点就成了赚钱的好机会。”但iPhone 14没有这样的幸运。一方面，新机被吐槽与上一代产品几乎毫无区别，“灵动岛不灵动”，多项bug曝光，新功能屡屡翻车。另一方面，库克吸取教训，更注重iPhone 14的供应链管理，新机供货十分充足。有网友表示，Pro版本新机等半个月左右便可到货。这意味着，黄牛赚钱的土壤越来越贫瘠。盛极而衰的拐点？熬夜看完今年的新品发布会后，苹果发烧友胡艺文下定决心，今年不再找黄牛加钱抢购新机。她买过iPhone 14以外的所有iPhone机型，而且不止一次加价购买首发新机。在她看来，抢先一步晒出最新款iPhone并非炫富，而是体现一种对顶级新科技消费产品的追求，“这很极客”。但iPhone 14让她觉得，“抢这种过度相似的机型一点也不极客”。对被公认守成有余、进取不足的库克而言，这当然不是件好事。从1997年将“不同凡响”定为slogan开始，创新便被视为苹果的灵魂。在乔布斯时代，苹果曾推出不止一款开创性的产品，并凭此坐稳了科技公司的头把交椅。但自2011年库克担任CEO以来，苹果便鲜有令人眼前一亮的创新，甚至从引领者的角色逐渐沦为追随者。在销量上取得成功的iPhone 6，是苹果首次推出大屏手机，被认为步了三星等品牌的后尘。iPhone 14的灵动岛等功能，也被质疑抄袭安卓厂商。经济学家任泽平在社交平台上直言，“苹果是在吃乔布斯的老本”，甚至认为2022年是苹果盛极而衰的转折点。不可否认，从销量和公司市值来看，库克掌舵下的苹果取得了巨大的成功。部分原因在于，昔日价格高高在上的苹果手机，在定价上开始“低头”。胡艺文注意到，从iPhone 11开始，苹果手机变得“便宜起来”。一方面，iPhone 11的起售价从上一代产品iPhone XR的6499元降至5499元。另一方面，安卓阵营的旗舰机价格持续上涨，OPPO Find X2 Pro版本5999元起，小米10至尊版也要5299元起，与iPhone持平甚至更高。此后，苹果一直延续新机不涨价的策略。如今，乔布斯留下的老本仍然够苹果吃上一阵子。据Counterpoint Research数据，2022年Q2，苹果在高端智能手机市场仍占据着过半江山，以57%的市场份额创下iPhone自2007年以来的历史纪录，并将全球手机六成多的利润收入囊中。胡艺文这样的果粉也不会轻易抛弃苹果。虽然创新不足，但一年一度的硬件（主要是芯片）稳定更新、软件系统稳定，仍对他们有巨大的吸引力。换句话说，乔布斯时代创造的巨大势能，足以让在创新方面略显平庸的苹果帝国靠惯性继续向前滑行。但随着苹果光环褪色，知秋的寒蝉已经隐隐嗅到寒意，感知到创新乏力的后果。对于靠苹果吃饭的手机经销商吕樊而言，苹果仍然是他营收的大头，“黄牛的失败与否，不影响这一切，太阳照常升起”。靠稀缺性和时间差赚钱的黄牛们则无暇为此悲春伤秋。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。叶静跃已全力转战华为Mate 50。他告诉雪豹财经社，华为新机溢价水平一直比较稳定，目前最低配都要加价1000元，最稀有的保时捷款已被炒到了2.5万元以上，较原价（12999元）翻了近一倍。对于仍站在金字塔尖的全球顶级软硬件一体的苹果公司而言，iPhone 14不可能成为绝唱。但黄牛们暴富梦的终章，或许将为苹果躺赢的终结，奏响一段前奏。（本文人物均为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911264962,"gmtCreate":1664227237756,"gmtModify":1676537411407,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911264962","repostId":"1123049781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123049781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664191062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123049781?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 19:17","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Pressing on the future of the economy, Britain starts a \"fatal gamble\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123049781","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这一历史时刻的回声将久久盘旋在威斯敏斯特的上空。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>The British government is betting on the future of the British economy.</p><p>Last Friday, the British government introduced a tax reduction measure of 45 billion pounds, which is the most radical tax reduction plan in the UK since 1972, including canceling the plan to raise corporate tax to 25%, canceling the top tax rate of 45%, drastically cutting stamp duty and more.</p><p>Analysts expect the package of subsidies and tax cuts to cost the UK government more than 150 billion pounds in the next few years,<b>And this will be mainly supported by bond issuance-the government said it would borrow an additional £ 72. 4bn to fund the scheme.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08aebd46aba94ce07021d5989f4bcea7\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Institute of Fiscal Studies, British think tank)</p><p>While Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng cheered that the UK economy was about to enter a \"new era\", there were doubts about whether this dramatic shift in UK fiscal policy would restart growth as expected, or only as the opposition Labour Party claimed-\"bringing the benefits only to those who are already wealthy\".</p><p>Paul Johnson, director of the Institute of Financial Studies, a British think tank, believes that,<b>The so-called \"largest tax reduction plan in 50 years\" has not even made any effort to increase public finances; Instead, the plan appears to be about borrowing large sums of money at ever higher interest rates, allowing government debt to increase unsustainably</b>。 This marks a dramatic change in the direction in which economic policy is being set, so much so that some longer-serving cabinet ministers fear a hit to the economy.</p><p>The market reacted quickly: the exchange rate of the pound plunged to a 37-year low on Monday, and the price of the British Treasury Bond fell continuously. However, the British government remains unchanged and even intends to continue to increase its weight. The British Deputy Finance Minister stressed that the payment rate of British government bonds is roughly the same as that of the United States at present, and \"the reason why we implemented tax cuts is not to cope with intraday fluctuations in the foreign exchange market\".</p><p>This is a gamble between Britain and history and the future, betting not only on the success of the new plan itself, but also on the economic prospects of Britain as a whole.</p><p>Gambling against history, the traditional policy orientation is gradually drifting away</p><p>Obviously, this is a growth plan that is completely contrary to the long-standing traditional policy thinking of Britain.</p><p>The traditional wisdom of the UK government for decades has been that tax cuts should mainly benefit the relatively poor groups, and that borrowing should not be used as a daily expenditure of the government under normal circumstances.</p><p><b>Mr Kwarten reverses years of cautious attitude towards tax reform by many previous chancellors</b>These chancellors insisted on a progressive tax system. But Kovarten said:</p><p>We've been indulging in an argument about redistribution for far too long in this country. Now we need to focus on growth, not just how we tax and spend. Mr Kowarten, a long advocate of low taxes, said: \"It is completely unsustainable to think that we can thrive through taxes and ignore tax rates at 70-year highs, let alone the ultimate consequences. The real danger lies in low growth, and the fundamental solution lies in economic growth.\" He said that although the Bank of England was \"absolutely wrong\" to curb inflation in rate hike and cut taxes to save an economy deeply affected by the coronavirus and energy crisis.</p><p>Within minutes of Kwarten's statement in the House of Commons, Tory MPs paced the corridors of the Palace of Westminster in shock.<b>Supporters rarely united, believing that this is a precious moment to \"break history\" and mark a break with traditional policy orientation.</b></p><p>Critics in the Conservative Party are very worried that the new Prime Minister Truss is playing a dangerous \"Russian roulette\". If something goes wrong, it will bring unexpected consequences.</p><p>There is no way to avoid another history repeating itself</p><p>It's hard not to think of the 1972 Budget introduced by former British Finance Minister Anthony Barber. Anthony Barber also introduced massive unfunded tax cuts at the time, but it led to an overheated economy, soaring inflation and a subsequent recession.</p><p>Anthony Barber was criticized for this, and Ted Heath, then British Prime Minister, became a negative textbook for managing the economy. Later, Heath lost the February 1974 election.</p><p>Analysis generally believes that,<b>The 1972 Budget ended in disaster because of its severe inflationary effect, so the tax cuts introduced by the British government this time may not be able to avoid the same fate. Analysts also compared the British government's tax cut plan with the tax cuts introduced during Margaret Thatcher's administration in 1988: although the 1988 Budget boosted the economy, it also caused inflation to soar, prompting the Bank of England to adjust the interest rate to a maximum of 15% in 1989, which greatly aggravated the volatility of the economy.</b></p><p>But there is still a big difference between the two: the Bank of England has only exercised monetary policy since independence in 1997, and today the Ministry of Finance is only responsible for fiscal policy-taxes and expenditures. This means that the Bank of England can respond to such a large-scale tax cut plan by constantly tightening liquidity and rate hike. The Bank of England has signaled that it will regard inflation as a \"dragon\" to be slaughtered.</p><p>Separately, some Conservative MPs criticized Truss's policies similar to those of former US President Ronald Reagan. In the 1980s, when Reagan was in office, he accumulated a lot of debt to fund his tax cuts.<b>The difference is that, unlike the British pound, the US dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning the US is far less likely to have trouble finding buyers for its debt.</b></p><p>Gambling against the future, a desperate bet in despair</p><p>At present, the weak economic growth in the UK, coupled with the energy crisis and severe inflation, has led to a sharp increase in people's living costs. Since last winter, the inflation rate in the UK has remained high, hitting a 40-year high from April to July this year. Many market analysts believe that the UK economy will fall into recession before the end of this year.</p><p>Paul Johnson believes that such a large-scale government debt is simply a \"big gamble\". Money is invested in an economy where inflation is still high. Only when the British economic growth \"can really keep up\" can the situation be \"controllable\".</p><p>In addition, crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the death of the Queen of England have also made the British economic prospects very bleak. According to the Global Times, Ding Chun, a professor at the Institute of World Economics, School of Economics, Fudan University, believes that,<b>This bleak economic outlook is mainly related to the long \"Brexit\".</b>As Brexit lasts for a long time, the UK and the EU are still running in and converging. In addition, the overall world economy is facing the impact of stagflation, and the UK is involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in labor shortages in the UK market, serious energy crises and other problems, and people's livelihood. difficult.</p><p>Dominic Cummings, the mastermind of the Brexit campaign, has gone out of his way to stress that his idea of Brexit is not to use newly gained \"freedoms\" to slash regulations massively.</p><p>But Kwarten and Truss have very different views from them. They believe,<b>The whole point of Brexit is to allow Britain to embark on a different economic path. That just means cutting taxes and repealing regulations-many of which come from the European Union.</b></p><p>Following the \"Iron Lady\", is it imitating others?</p><p>Truss said a few days ago that she wanted to build a Britain where people from all over the world can display their talents, and to usher in a vibrant decade for the United Kingdom through economic growth.</p><p>From her perspective, this bold plan is both \"unexpected\" and \"reasonable\": Truss made it clear during the campaign that she believed tax cuts were the best way to promote economic growth. one of the ways. Only implementing such a deterrent strategy is the core of achieving political and economic success.</p><p><b>In the past eight years of dormancy, Truss believed that most previous prime ministers were too \"timid\" to avoid the core values of the Conservative Party, which have the advantage of allowing the economy to grow freely. Therefore, Truss has been waiting for this moment for years.</b></p><p>But moving so quickly and implementing such a massive tax cut was a huge shock to her supporters and critics alike.</p><p>During the July election campaign, when asked \"who is the Conservative Prime Minister I admire the most\", Truss answered categorically: Margaret Thatcher. Her various policy orientations are considered to be closer to Margaret Thatcher-supporting free markets and \"small government\", simplifying the tax system, \"keen\" on fighting trade unions, and so on.</p><p><b>The economic difficulties facing Britain at this time are very similar to those when Margaret Thatcher came to power. But many experts believe that Truss's plan to lower taxes by increasing Treasury Bond is not \"Thatcherism.\"</b></p><p>According to the Global Times, Matthew Johnson, a professor of political science at Northumbria University in the UK, said that Mrs. Thatcher not only has a clear and coherent political vision, but also her wisdom and political ability can translate the relevant vision into clear policies, while Truss does not have such qualities. The British media believed that Truss's imitation of Margaret Thatcher was a \"political role-playing\" with the purpose of using Margaret Thatcher's political legacy to gain more support within the Conservative Party.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pressing on the future of the economy, Britain starts a \"fatal gamble\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPressing on the future of the economy, Britain starts a \"fatal gamble\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-26 19:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>The British government is betting on the future of the British economy.</p><p>Last Friday, the British government introduced a tax reduction measure of 45 billion pounds, which is the most radical tax reduction plan in the UK since 1972, including canceling the plan to raise corporate tax to 25%, canceling the top tax rate of 45%, drastically cutting stamp duty and more.</p><p>Analysts expect the package of subsidies and tax cuts to cost the UK government more than 150 billion pounds in the next few years,<b>And this will be mainly supported by bond issuance-the government said it would borrow an additional £ 72. 4bn to fund the scheme.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08aebd46aba94ce07021d5989f4bcea7\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Institute of Fiscal Studies, British think tank)</p><p>While Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng cheered that the UK economy was about to enter a \"new era\", there were doubts about whether this dramatic shift in UK fiscal policy would restart growth as expected, or only as the opposition Labour Party claimed-\"bringing the benefits only to those who are already wealthy\".</p><p>Paul Johnson, director of the Institute of Financial Studies, a British think tank, believes that,<b>The so-called \"largest tax reduction plan in 50 years\" has not even made any effort to increase public finances; Instead, the plan appears to be about borrowing large sums of money at ever higher interest rates, allowing government debt to increase unsustainably</b>。 This marks a dramatic change in the direction in which economic policy is being set, so much so that some longer-serving cabinet ministers fear a hit to the economy.</p><p>The market reacted quickly: the exchange rate of the pound plunged to a 37-year low on Monday, and the price of the British Treasury Bond fell continuously. However, the British government remains unchanged and even intends to continue to increase its weight. The British Deputy Finance Minister stressed that the payment rate of British government bonds is roughly the same as that of the United States at present, and \"the reason why we implemented tax cuts is not to cope with intraday fluctuations in the foreign exchange market\".</p><p>This is a gamble between Britain and history and the future, betting not only on the success of the new plan itself, but also on the economic prospects of Britain as a whole.</p><p>Gambling against history, the traditional policy orientation is gradually drifting away</p><p>Obviously, this is a growth plan that is completely contrary to the long-standing traditional policy thinking of Britain.</p><p>The traditional wisdom of the UK government for decades has been that tax cuts should mainly benefit the relatively poor groups, and that borrowing should not be used as a daily expenditure of the government under normal circumstances.</p><p><b>Mr Kwarten reverses years of cautious attitude towards tax reform by many previous chancellors</b>These chancellors insisted on a progressive tax system. But Kovarten said:</p><p>We've been indulging in an argument about redistribution for far too long in this country. Now we need to focus on growth, not just how we tax and spend. Mr Kowarten, a long advocate of low taxes, said: \"It is completely unsustainable to think that we can thrive through taxes and ignore tax rates at 70-year highs, let alone the ultimate consequences. The real danger lies in low growth, and the fundamental solution lies in economic growth.\" He said that although the Bank of England was \"absolutely wrong\" to curb inflation in rate hike and cut taxes to save an economy deeply affected by the coronavirus and energy crisis.</p><p>Within minutes of Kwarten's statement in the House of Commons, Tory MPs paced the corridors of the Palace of Westminster in shock.<b>Supporters rarely united, believing that this is a precious moment to \"break history\" and mark a break with traditional policy orientation.</b></p><p>Critics in the Conservative Party are very worried that the new Prime Minister Truss is playing a dangerous \"Russian roulette\". If something goes wrong, it will bring unexpected consequences.</p><p>There is no way to avoid another history repeating itself</p><p>It's hard not to think of the 1972 Budget introduced by former British Finance Minister Anthony Barber. Anthony Barber also introduced massive unfunded tax cuts at the time, but it led to an overheated economy, soaring inflation and a subsequent recession.</p><p>Anthony Barber was criticized for this, and Ted Heath, then British Prime Minister, became a negative textbook for managing the economy. Later, Heath lost the February 1974 election.</p><p>Analysis generally believes that,<b>The 1972 Budget ended in disaster because of its severe inflationary effect, so the tax cuts introduced by the British government this time may not be able to avoid the same fate. Analysts also compared the British government's tax cut plan with the tax cuts introduced during Margaret Thatcher's administration in 1988: although the 1988 Budget boosted the economy, it also caused inflation to soar, prompting the Bank of England to adjust the interest rate to a maximum of 15% in 1989, which greatly aggravated the volatility of the economy.</b></p><p>But there is still a big difference between the two: the Bank of England has only exercised monetary policy since independence in 1997, and today the Ministry of Finance is only responsible for fiscal policy-taxes and expenditures. This means that the Bank of England can respond to such a large-scale tax cut plan by constantly tightening liquidity and rate hike. The Bank of England has signaled that it will regard inflation as a \"dragon\" to be slaughtered.</p><p>Separately, some Conservative MPs criticized Truss's policies similar to those of former US President Ronald Reagan. In the 1980s, when Reagan was in office, he accumulated a lot of debt to fund his tax cuts.<b>The difference is that, unlike the British pound, the US dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning the US is far less likely to have trouble finding buyers for its debt.</b></p><p>Gambling against the future, a desperate bet in despair</p><p>At present, the weak economic growth in the UK, coupled with the energy crisis and severe inflation, has led to a sharp increase in people's living costs. Since last winter, the inflation rate in the UK has remained high, hitting a 40-year high from April to July this year. Many market analysts believe that the UK economy will fall into recession before the end of this year.</p><p>Paul Johnson believes that such a large-scale government debt is simply a \"big gamble\". Money is invested in an economy where inflation is still high. Only when the British economic growth \"can really keep up\" can the situation be \"controllable\".</p><p>In addition, crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the death of the Queen of England have also made the British economic prospects very bleak. According to the Global Times, Ding Chun, a professor at the Institute of World Economics, School of Economics, Fudan University, believes that,<b>This bleak economic outlook is mainly related to the long \"Brexit\".</b>As Brexit lasts for a long time, the UK and the EU are still running in and converging. In addition, the overall world economy is facing the impact of stagflation, and the UK is involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in labor shortages in the UK market, serious energy crises and other problems, and people's livelihood. difficult.</p><p>Dominic Cummings, the mastermind of the Brexit campaign, has gone out of his way to stress that his idea of Brexit is not to use newly gained \"freedoms\" to slash regulations massively.</p><p>But Kwarten and Truss have very different views from them. They believe,<b>The whole point of Brexit is to allow Britain to embark on a different economic path. That just means cutting taxes and repealing regulations-many of which come from the European Union.</b></p><p>Following the \"Iron Lady\", is it imitating others?</p><p>Truss said a few days ago that she wanted to build a Britain where people from all over the world can display their talents, and to usher in a vibrant decade for the United Kingdom through economic growth.</p><p>From her perspective, this bold plan is both \"unexpected\" and \"reasonable\": Truss made it clear during the campaign that she believed tax cuts were the best way to promote economic growth. one of the ways. Only implementing such a deterrent strategy is the core of achieving political and economic success.</p><p><b>In the past eight years of dormancy, Truss believed that most previous prime ministers were too \"timid\" to avoid the core values of the Conservative Party, which have the advantage of allowing the economy to grow freely. Therefore, Truss has been waiting for this moment for years.</b></p><p>But moving so quickly and implementing such a massive tax cut was a huge shock to her supporters and critics alike.</p><p>During the July election campaign, when asked \"who is the Conservative Prime Minister I admire the most\", Truss answered categorically: Margaret Thatcher. Her various policy orientations are considered to be closer to Margaret Thatcher-supporting free markets and \"small government\", simplifying the tax system, \"keen\" on fighting trade unions, and so on.</p><p><b>The economic difficulties facing Britain at this time are very similar to those when Margaret Thatcher came to power. But many experts believe that Truss's plan to lower taxes by increasing Treasury Bond is not \"Thatcherism.\"</b></p><p>According to the Global Times, Matthew Johnson, a professor of political science at Northumbria University in the UK, said that Mrs. Thatcher not only has a clear and coherent political vision, but also her wisdom and political ability can translate the relevant vision into clear policies, while Truss does not have such qualities. The British media believed that Truss's imitation of Margaret Thatcher was a \"political role-playing\" with the purpose of using Margaret Thatcher's political legacy to gain more support within the Conservative Party.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671179\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60779518d8b54ddaf209f95e2dfa6d12","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671179","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1123049781","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳英国政府押上了英国经济的未来。上周五，英国政府出台了一项规模达450亿英镑的减税措施，是自1972年以来英国最激进的减税方案，包括取消将公司税上调至25%的计划、取消45%的最高税率、大幅削减印花税等等。分析人士预计，补贴和减税一揽子计划将使英国政府在未来几年花费超过1500亿英镑，而这将主要由发债支持——政府表示将额外借入724亿英镑来为该计划提供资金。（来源：英国智库财政研究所）在英国财政大臣夸西·科沃滕（Kwasi Kwarteng）为英国经济即将进入“新时代”欢呼之际，人们却怀疑，英国财政政策这一戏剧性的转变是否会像预期的那样重启经济增长，或者只能像反对党工党声称的那样——“只把好处带给那些已经很富有的人”。英国智库财政研究所所长 Paul Johnson 认为，所谓“50年来规模最大的减税计划”，甚至没有做出任何努力来增加公共财政；相反，该计划似乎是要以越来越高的利率借入大量资金，让政府债务不可持续地增加。这标志着经济政策的制定方向发生了巨大变化，以至于一些任职时间较长的内阁部长担心经济受到打击。市场迅速做出了反应：英镑汇率周一暴跌至37年的低点，英国国债价格连续下挫。但英国政府岿然不动，甚至打算继续加码。英国副财长强调英国政府债券的支付利率目前与美国大致相同，并且“我们实施减税的原因不是为了应对汇市盘中的波动”。这是一场英国与历史、与未来的赌博，押注的不仅是新计划能否成功本身，还有整个英国的经济前景。与历史对赌，传统政策取向渐行渐远显然，这是一项完全与英国长期传统政策思维相悖的增长计划。英国政府几十年来的传统观念是，减税应主要惠及相对贫困的群体，并且在正常情况下不应将借款作为政府的日常支出。科沃滕一改诸多前任财政大臣多年来对税收改革小心翼翼的态度，这些财政大臣坚持主张累进税制。但科沃滕却表示：在这个国家，我们沉溺于一场关于再分配的争论已经太久了。现在我们需要关注增长，而不仅仅是如何征税和支出。长期以来，科沃滕一直主张低税政策，他说：“认为可以通过征税实现繁荣发展，而对处于70年高位的税率水平置之不理，这种想法才是完全不可持续的，更不知最终会带来怎样的后果。真正的危险在于低增长，根本的解决方式在于经济增长。”他表示，尽管英国央行在加息以抑制通胀，减税以拯救深受新冠疫情和能源危机影响的经济“一点儿都没错”。在科沃滕在下议院发表声明后的几分钟内，保守党议员们震惊地在威斯敏斯特宫的走廊里踱步。支持者们难得地团结一致了起来，认为这是一个“打破历史”的珍贵时刻，标志着与传统政策取向的决裂。保守党中的批评人士则十分担心新任首相特拉斯在进行一场危险的“俄罗斯轮盘赌”，一旦出了差错，将会带来始料未及的后果。无法避免另一种历史的重演这很难不让人联想到前英国财政部长 Anthony Barber 在1972年出台的预算案。Anthony Barber 当时同样推出了大规模的无资金支持的减税措施，却导致了经济过热、通胀飙升以及随之而来的经济衰退。Anthony Barber 因此被人诟病，而时任英国首相的 Ted Heath 也成为了管理经济的反面教材。后来，Heath 果然在1974年2月的选举中落败。分析普遍认为，1972年的预算案最终以灾难收场也是因为其严重的通胀效应，因此此次英国政府推出的减税措施可能也无法避免相同的命运。分析人士还将英国政府此次减税方案与1988年撒切尔夫人执政时期推出的减税措施进行了对比：尽管1988年预算案提振了经济，但也令通胀飙升，促使英国央行在1989年将利率最高调整至了15%，使经济的波动性大大加剧。但二者之间仍有一个很大的区别：英国央行自1997年独立后才行使货币政策，如今的财政部只负责财政政策——税收和支出。这意味着，英国央行可以通过不断收紧流动性和加息对如此大规模的减税计划做出应对。英国央行已经发出信号，会将通胀视为一条待屠宰的“恶龙”。另外，一些保守党议员批评特拉斯的政策与前美国总统罗纳德·里根相似。上世纪80年代，里根在任时积累了大量债务，为其减税计划提供资金。不同之处在于，与英镑不同，美元是全球储备货币，这意味着美国为其债务寻找买家时遇到困难的可能性要小得多。与未来对赌，绝望中的孤注一掷目前，英国经济增长乏力，加上能源危机和严重通胀，民众生活成本陡增。去年冬天以来，英国通胀率居高不下，今年4月至7月已接连创下40年来新高。许多市场分析师都认为，英国经济将在今年年底前陷入衰退。Paul Johnson 认为，如此大规模的政府负债简直就是一次“大赌博”，钱被投进一个通胀仍然高企的经济里，只有英国经济增长“真的能跟上”，局面才是“可控的”。另外，俄乌冲突和英国女王去世等危机也使得英国经济前景十分黯淡。据环球时报报道，复旦大学经济学院世界经济研究所教授丁纯认为，这种经济前景的黯淡主要跟漫长的“脱欧”有关系。由于脱欧时间持续较长，英国跟欧盟仍然还在磨合、衔接中，加上整体世界经济面临滞胀的冲击，英国卷入俄乌冲突，造成英国市场劳动力短缺、能源危机严重等问题，民生维艰。脱欧运动的策划者多米尼克·卡明斯不厌其烦地强调，他对英国退欧的想法并不是利用新获得的“自由”来大规模削减法规。但科沃滕和特拉斯与其观点截然不同。他们认为，脱欧的全部意义就是在于允许英国走上一条不同的经济道路。这正意味着削减税收和废除法规——其中许多法规就来自欧盟。追随“铁娘子”，是否东施效颦？特拉斯在前几日称，她要建设一个世界各地的人都能施展才能的英国，要通过经济增长使英国迎来充满活力的十年。从她的视角来看，这一大胆的计划既在“意料之外”，又在“情理之中”：特拉斯在竞选期间曾明确表示，她认为减税是促进经济增长的最佳方式之一。只有实施如此具有威慑力的策略，才是实现政治和经济成功的核心。在过去蛰伏的八年里，特拉斯认为大多数前任首相都太过“胆小”，对保守党的核心价值观避之不及，而这些价值观的优点在于让经济得以自由发展。因此，特拉斯已经为这一刻等候多年。但如此迅速地采取行动并实施如此大规模的减税，对她的支持者和批评者来说都是一种巨大的冲击。在7月的竞选活动中，在被问及“最敬仰的保守党首相是谁”时，特拉斯斩钉截铁地回答称：玛格丽特·撒切尔。她的多种政策取向都被认为是在向撒切尔夫人靠拢——拥护自由市场和“小政府”、简化税收制度、“热衷于”与工会斗争等等。英国此时面临的经济困境，很像当年撒切尔夫人上台时的情况。但很多专家认为，特拉斯通过增加国债以降低税收的计划并不是“撒切尔主义”。据环球时报报道，英国诺森比亚大学政治学教授马修·约翰逊表示，撒切尔夫人不仅拥有清晰且连贯的政治愿景，而且其智慧和政治能力能将相关愿景转化为清晰的政策，而特拉斯不具备这样的素质。英国媒体认为，特拉斯对撒切尔夫人的模仿是在进行“政治角色扮演”，目的只是利用撒切尔夫人的政治遗产在保守党内部获得更多支持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913668659,"gmtCreate":1663981873172,"gmtModify":1676537373995,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913668659","repostId":"1123410633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123410633","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663932651,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123410633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 19:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Before the Market | What Happened? Stocks, Crude Oil, Gold Accelerate Declines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123410633","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 23, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell across the board. As of press time, Dow futures fell 1.27%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.53%; S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Goldman Sachs finally turned short! Significantly lowered the target price of US stocks, and it is expected to fall another 4% before the end of the year</b></a><b></b></p><p>Thursday Eastern Time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The year-end price target for the S&P 500 index was lowered to 3,600 points from the previous forecast of 4,300 points, saying that a sharp change in the outlook for upward interest rates will drag down U.S. stock valuations. This means that Goldman Sachs expects U.S. stocks to continue to fall by more than 4% for the rest of the year.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>U.S. star technology stocks all fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>, AMD fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Both fell more than 1%;</p><p>U.S. cruise stocks fell premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian cruise line</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Fell more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. oil stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">Apache</a>Fell more than 3%;</p><p>The precious metals sector of U.S. stocks generally fell before the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">Harmony Gold</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">Jintian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">Cordellen Minerals</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">Hecla Minerals</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">Barrick Gold</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">Royal Gold</a>Fell more than 2%;</p><p>U.S. blockchain concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>Fell more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, having previously denied reports that it was considering withdrawing from the US market;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell more than 4% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Previous research reports stated that XPeng's new car G9 has no obvious competitive advantage compared with its peers, and if competition intensifies, the valuation will be under pressure;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>It rose nearly 6% before the market, and it is rumored that many potential buyers are considering acquiring the company;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the gross profit margin in Q4 was 10.18%, lower than the same period last year.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 2.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 2.34%, and France's CAC40 fell 2.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell sharply. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 3.47% to $80.59 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.06% to $87.69 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures continued to fall, falling 1.76% to $1,651.5 an ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Before the Market | What Happened? Stocks, Crude Oil, Gold Accelerate Declines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBefore the Market | What Happened? Stocks, Crude Oil, Gold Accelerate Declines\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-23 19:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 23, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell across the board. As of press time, Dow futures fell 1.27%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.53%; S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Goldman Sachs finally turned short! Significantly lowered the target price of US stocks, and it is expected to fall another 4% before the end of the year</b></a><b></b></p><p>Thursday Eastern Time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The year-end price target for the S&P 500 index was lowered to 3,600 points from the previous forecast of 4,300 points, saying that a sharp change in the outlook for upward interest rates will drag down U.S. stock valuations. This means that Goldman Sachs expects U.S. stocks to continue to fall by more than 4% for the rest of the year.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>U.S. star technology stocks all fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>, AMD fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Both fell more than 1%;</p><p>U.S. cruise stocks fell premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian cruise line</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Fell more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. oil stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">Apache</a>Fell more than 3%;</p><p>The precious metals sector of U.S. stocks generally fell before the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">Harmony Gold</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">Jintian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">Cordellen Minerals</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">Hecla Minerals</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">Barrick Gold</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">Royal Gold</a>Fell more than 2%;</p><p>U.S. blockchain concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>Fell more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, having previously denied reports that it was considering withdrawing from the US market;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell more than 4% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Previous research reports stated that XPeng's new car G9 has no obvious competitive advantage compared with its peers, and if competition intensifies, the valuation will be under pressure;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>It rose nearly 6% before the market, and it is rumored that many potential buyers are considering acquiring the company;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the gross profit margin in Q4 was 10.18%, lower than the same period last year.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 2.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 2.34%, and France's CAC40 fell 2.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell sharply. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 3.47% to $80.59 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.06% to $87.69 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures continued to fall, falling 1.76% to $1,651.5 an ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123410633","content_text":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周四，高盛将标普500指数的年底目标价从此前预测的4300点下调至3600点，称利率上行前景的大幅转变将拖累美股估值。这意味着高盛预计在今年剩余的时间内，美股还要继续下跌超4%。盘前行情美股明星科技股盘前齐挫，特斯拉、奈飞、英伟达、AMD跌超2%，苹果、亚马逊、谷歌A、微软均跌超1%；美股邮轮股盘前走低，嘉年华邮轮跌超5%，挪威邮轮跌超4%，皇家加勒比邮轮跌超3%；美股石油股盘前普跌，英国石油跌超5%，卡隆石油跌超4%，西方石油、阿帕契跌超3%；美股贵金属板块盘前普跌，哈莫尼黄金跌近8%，金田、科尔黛伦矿业跌超5%，赫克拉矿业跌超4%，纽曼矿业、巴里克黄金、皇家黄金跌超2%；美股区块链概念股普跌，Riot Blockchain跌超7%，Coinbase、Marathon Digital、MicroStrategy跌超4%；瑞士信贷盘前跌超8%，此前否认有关其考虑退出美国市场的报道；小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%，瑞银此前研报表示，小鹏新车G9与同业比无明显竞争优势，若竞争加剧估值将受压；Cano Health盘前涨近6%，传多个潜在买家考虑收购公司；好市多盘前跌逾3%，Q4毛利率10.18%，低于去年同期。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.74%，英国富时100跌2.34%，法国CAC40跌2.46%。原油原油期货大幅走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌3.47%，报80.59美元/桶；布伦特原油跌3.06%，报87.69美元/桶。黄金黄金期货持续下挫，截止发稿，跌1.76%，报1651.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919040011,"gmtCreate":1663716090234,"gmtModify":1676537319877,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919040011","repostId":"2269990031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269990031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663709371,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269990031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 05:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | \"Doctor Doom\" says U.S. stocks have 40% room to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269990031","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。　　美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。　　自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。　　拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The Fed's economic forecast is about to be announced, and the \"unemployment rate\" data may break a new high</b><b>2. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: There will be more rate hike after \"moving forward\"</b><b>3. \"Doctor Doom\" predicts that the world will fall into a \"long and tragic\" recession by the end of the year. The U.S. stock market may plummet by 40%</b><b>4. Inflation and rate hike hit the stock market hard. Factor investment method regains its former glory</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO attacks: Congress is too demanding and the US economy is \"two-faced\"</b><b>6. The German government will nationalize natural gas giant Uniper with historic aid agreement</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3640c165bbab35a063886f0264187e4a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's economic forecast is about to be announced, and the \"unemployment rate\" data may break a new high</b></p><p>When the dot plot is released on Wednesday, Fed officials will show the economic warnings they have made in recent weeks in numerical form, and forecasts for interest rates and unemployment rates are expected to be sharply raised.</p><p>The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day policy meeting in Washington starting on Tuesday, and officials are expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time.</p><p>That means the benchmark interest rate will rise to its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The next phase of the tightening cycle will bring greater economic risks, which may be reflected in their revised economic forecasts.</p><p>U.S. inflation has barely cooled since the last round of economic forecasts in June, prompting the Federal Reserve to take a more aggressive stance. They are also increasingly skeptical of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, which may be part of the reason why they are now inclined to let economic activity slow even further.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist in New York, said, \"Of course, rising interest rates will have a greater impact on unemployment. We expect the unemployment rate to be close to 4.5% in the Fed's new forecast, and they will still mention a'soft landing 'outlook, but it will also imply that there is a high risk of recession.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3452a796edd35bc84caa0933386c85fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>ECB President Christine Lagarde: There will be more rate hike after \"moving forward\"</b></p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that after the central bank took the lead and implemented \"the fastest interest rate adjustment in our history\", borrowing costs will rise further in the coming months.</p><p>\"We have taken significant steps on the road to normalization of monetary policy and implemented the front-end rate hike,\" Lagarde said in a speech in Frankfurt on Tuesday night. \"We expect further rate hike in the next few meetings.\"</p><p>After following the example of the Federal Reserve's rate hike by 75 basis points this month, ECB officials are debating the next move. While they agree that further action is needed to control record inflation, they are divided on how aggressive they should be as soaring energy costs push Europe towards a recession.</p><p>In a speech earlier on Tuesday, Estonian central bank governor Madis Muller urged the European Central Bank to act \"strongly and decisively enough\", saying current interest rates are still far from the level that limits economic expansion in the euro zone. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that slowing economic growth is not enough to ease inflation.</p><p>Lagarde reiterated that the ECB will make decisions meeting by meeting, and any action will depend on future economic data. \"Where interest rates end up, and the size of each of our steps, will depend on how the outlook for inflation evolves,\" she said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba01422e545fe48e009ec9973e1980f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Doctor Doom\" predicts that the world will fall into a \"long and tragic\" recession by the end of the year, and the US stock market may plummet by 40%</b></p><p>Roubini, an economist who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, believes that the United States and the world will encounter a \"long and tragic\" recession at the end of 2022 and be mired in it throughout 2023, and the S&P 500 index will also fall sharply.</p><p>\"Even in a lackluster ordinary recession, the S&P 500 could fall 30%,\" Roubini, chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, said in an interview on Monday, saying that in what he expects to be a \"real hard landing\", U.S. stocks could fall 40%.</p><p>Roubini's foresight of the 2007-2008 housing bubble bursting earned him the nickname \"Dr. Doom\". He said that people who think the United States will only have a shallow recession should look at the high debt ratio of enterprises and governments. As interest rates rise and debt service costs increase, \"a lot of institutions, residents, businesses, banks, shadow banks will be finished,\" he said, \"so we'll know who's swimming naked then.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243978df13130ee8cdbe679db71b0f4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation and rate hike hit the stock market hard, factor investment method regains its former glory</b></p><p>Ten years in Hedong, ten years in Hexi. The stock market is experiencing its worst year since the global financial crisis, giving once revolutionary quantitative investors a chance to regain their former glory and wash away the humiliation they suffered in the era of cheap money.</p><p>Machine-driven funds trade according to some characteristics of stocks (such as cheapness, rising speed, etc.), which have been tried and tested this year. This is known as factor investing. By contrast, actively managed hedge funds and short-term speculators failed to dodge the market crash.</p><p>The extremes are reversing as historically high inflation triggers a central bank rate hike that brings to an abrupt end to a pattern led by Big Tech stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>Data shows that ultra-high market capitalization companies no longer dominate, and the gap between winners and losers of S&P 500 constituent stocks has reached the largest in more than a decade.</p><p>All of this inspired rules-based funds. The strategy of buying low-volatility or high-momentum stocks is profitable, and value stocks are also continuing their post-epidemic return.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>JPMorgan Chase CEO criticizes: Congress is too demanding and the US economy is \"two-faced\"</b></p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, pointed the finger at the \"capital requirement increase\" ahead of two congressional hearings this week.</p><p>This Wednesday and Thursday, Dimon will meet with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>The heads of major banks such as Citigroup, Citigroup and other banks attended congressional hearings on consumer banking. In his prepared speech, he praised his company's role in the global economy and warned of the harm of \"arbitrary increases in capital requirements\".</p><p>\"The continued increase in capital requirements for big banks in the United States itself poses a significant economic risk, especially if it does not reflect the actual risk,\" Dimon wrote. \"This simply binds regulated banks at the wrong time, resulting in their capital restrictions, which is not conducive to their expansion of lending and other businesses during the country's economic difficulties\".</p><p>JPMorgan was asked in July to suspend share buybacks to meet higher capital requirements related to the results of stricter stress tests as soon as possible. Dimon has long criticized the increase in capital requirements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8458711ed01911a4418e3128dedcc4d0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>German government to nationalize gas giant Uniper with historic aid deal</b></p><p>German government plans to pay natural gas giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNPPY\">Uniper SE</a>An injection of roughly 8 billion euros ($8 billion) in capital to nationalise the company in a historic deal while preventing the country's energy sector from collapsing.</p><p>Uniper confirmed on Tuesday that it was finally negotiating a plan with the government, which included an 8 billion euro capital increase, fully subscribed by the government. The German government will also buy shares in its major shareholder Fortum Oyj of Finland.</p><p>Uniper is Germany's largest domestic buyer of Russian natural gas and is at the heart of the energy crisis. Against the background of Russia's restrictions on energy supplies to Europe, if Uniper goes bankrupt, it may have a ripple to various areas of the German economy and may threaten fuel supplies, so the government is under pressure to act.</p><p>Uniper shares rose 3%. Fortnum shares jumped 9.5% before trading in the shares was suspended by the exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | \"Doctor Doom\" says U.S. stocks have 40% room to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | \"Doctor Doom\" says U.S. stocks have 40% room to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-21 05:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The Fed's economic forecast is about to be announced, and the \"unemployment rate\" data may break a new high</b><b>2. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: There will be more rate hike after \"moving forward\"</b><b>3. \"Doctor Doom\" predicts that the world will fall into a \"long and tragic\" recession by the end of the year. The U.S. stock market may plummet by 40%</b><b>4. Inflation and rate hike hit the stock market hard. Factor investment method regains its former glory</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO attacks: Congress is too demanding and the US economy is \"two-faced\"</b><b>6. The German government will nationalize natural gas giant Uniper with historic aid agreement</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3640c165bbab35a063886f0264187e4a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's economic forecast is about to be announced, and the \"unemployment rate\" data may break a new high</b></p><p>When the dot plot is released on Wednesday, Fed officials will show the economic warnings they have made in recent weeks in numerical form, and forecasts for interest rates and unemployment rates are expected to be sharply raised.</p><p>The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day policy meeting in Washington starting on Tuesday, and officials are expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time.</p><p>That means the benchmark interest rate will rise to its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The next phase of the tightening cycle will bring greater economic risks, which may be reflected in their revised economic forecasts.</p><p>U.S. inflation has barely cooled since the last round of economic forecasts in June, prompting the Federal Reserve to take a more aggressive stance. They are also increasingly skeptical of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, which may be part of the reason why they are now inclined to let economic activity slow even further.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist in New York, said, \"Of course, rising interest rates will have a greater impact on unemployment. We expect the unemployment rate to be close to 4.5% in the Fed's new forecast, and they will still mention a'soft landing 'outlook, but it will also imply that there is a high risk of recession.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3452a796edd35bc84caa0933386c85fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>ECB President Christine Lagarde: There will be more rate hike after \"moving forward\"</b></p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that after the central bank took the lead and implemented \"the fastest interest rate adjustment in our history\", borrowing costs will rise further in the coming months.</p><p>\"We have taken significant steps on the road to normalization of monetary policy and implemented the front-end rate hike,\" Lagarde said in a speech in Frankfurt on Tuesday night. \"We expect further rate hike in the next few meetings.\"</p><p>After following the example of the Federal Reserve's rate hike by 75 basis points this month, ECB officials are debating the next move. While they agree that further action is needed to control record inflation, they are divided on how aggressive they should be as soaring energy costs push Europe towards a recession.</p><p>In a speech earlier on Tuesday, Estonian central bank governor Madis Muller urged the European Central Bank to act \"strongly and decisively enough\", saying current interest rates are still far from the level that limits economic expansion in the euro zone. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that slowing economic growth is not enough to ease inflation.</p><p>Lagarde reiterated that the ECB will make decisions meeting by meeting, and any action will depend on future economic data. \"Where interest rates end up, and the size of each of our steps, will depend on how the outlook for inflation evolves,\" she said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba01422e545fe48e009ec9973e1980f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Doctor Doom\" predicts that the world will fall into a \"long and tragic\" recession by the end of the year, and the US stock market may plummet by 40%</b></p><p>Roubini, an economist who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, believes that the United States and the world will encounter a \"long and tragic\" recession at the end of 2022 and be mired in it throughout 2023, and the S&P 500 index will also fall sharply.</p><p>\"Even in a lackluster ordinary recession, the S&P 500 could fall 30%,\" Roubini, chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, said in an interview on Monday, saying that in what he expects to be a \"real hard landing\", U.S. stocks could fall 40%.</p><p>Roubini's foresight of the 2007-2008 housing bubble bursting earned him the nickname \"Dr. Doom\". He said that people who think the United States will only have a shallow recession should look at the high debt ratio of enterprises and governments. As interest rates rise and debt service costs increase, \"a lot of institutions, residents, businesses, banks, shadow banks will be finished,\" he said, \"so we'll know who's swimming naked then.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243978df13130ee8cdbe679db71b0f4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation and rate hike hit the stock market hard, factor investment method regains its former glory</b></p><p>Ten years in Hedong, ten years in Hexi. The stock market is experiencing its worst year since the global financial crisis, giving once revolutionary quantitative investors a chance to regain their former glory and wash away the humiliation they suffered in the era of cheap money.</p><p>Machine-driven funds trade according to some characteristics of stocks (such as cheapness, rising speed, etc.), which have been tried and tested this year. This is known as factor investing. By contrast, actively managed hedge funds and short-term speculators failed to dodge the market crash.</p><p>The extremes are reversing as historically high inflation triggers a central bank rate hike that brings to an abrupt end to a pattern led by Big Tech stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>Data shows that ultra-high market capitalization companies no longer dominate, and the gap between winners and losers of S&P 500 constituent stocks has reached the largest in more than a decade.</p><p>All of this inspired rules-based funds. The strategy of buying low-volatility or high-momentum stocks is profitable, and value stocks are also continuing their post-epidemic return.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>JPMorgan Chase CEO criticizes: Congress is too demanding and the US economy is \"two-faced\"</b></p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, pointed the finger at the \"capital requirement increase\" ahead of two congressional hearings this week.</p><p>This Wednesday and Thursday, Dimon will meet with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>The heads of major banks such as Citigroup, Citigroup and other banks attended congressional hearings on consumer banking. In his prepared speech, he praised his company's role in the global economy and warned of the harm of \"arbitrary increases in capital requirements\".</p><p>\"The continued increase in capital requirements for big banks in the United States itself poses a significant economic risk, especially if it does not reflect the actual risk,\" Dimon wrote. \"This simply binds regulated banks at the wrong time, resulting in their capital restrictions, which is not conducive to their expansion of lending and other businesses during the country's economic difficulties\".</p><p>JPMorgan was asked in July to suspend share buybacks to meet higher capital requirements related to the results of stricter stress tests as soon as possible. Dimon has long criticized the increase in capital requirements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8458711ed01911a4418e3128dedcc4d0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>German government to nationalize gas giant Uniper with historic aid deal</b></p><p>German government plans to pay natural gas giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNPPY\">Uniper SE</a>An injection of roughly 8 billion euros ($8 billion) in capital to nationalise the company in a historic deal while preventing the country's energy sector from collapsing.</p><p>Uniper confirmed on Tuesday that it was finally negotiating a plan with the government, which included an 8 billion euro capital increase, fully subscribed by the government. The German government will also buy shares in its major shareholder Fortum Oyj of Finland.</p><p>Uniper is Germany's largest domestic buyer of Russian natural gas and is at the heart of the energy crisis. Against the background of Russia's restrictions on energy supplies to Europe, if Uniper goes bankrupt, it may have a ripple to various areas of the German economy and may threaten fuel supplies, so the government is under pressure to act.</p><p>Uniper shares rose 3%. Fortnum shares jumped 9.5% before trading in the shares was suspended by the exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2269990031","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 2、欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息3、“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%4、通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光5、摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”6、德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。这意味着基准利率将升至2008年金融危机前以来的最高水平。紧缩周期的下一阶段将带来更大的经济风险，这可能会在他们的修订后的经济预测中得到反映。自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。他们也越来越怀疑失业率和通胀率之间的关系，这可能是他们现在倾向于让经济活动进一步放缓的部分原因。德意志银行驻纽约高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan表示，“当然，利率上升将对失业产生更大的影响。我们预计在美联储的新预测中，失业率将接近4.5%，他们仍然会提到‘软着陆’前景，但也会暗示其中有很高的经济衰退风险。”欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息欧洲央行行长拉加德称，在央行靠前发力、实施了“我们历史上最快的利率调整”之后，借贷成本在未来数月还将进一步上升。“我们在货币政策正常化的道路上迈出了重大步伐，实施了靠前加息，”拉加德周二晚间在法兰克福发表演讲称。“我们预计在接下来的几次会议上会进一步加息。”在本月效仿美联储加息75个基点之后，欧洲央行官员正在激辩下一步行动。虽然他们同意需要采取进一步行动来控制创纪录的通胀，但随着能源成本飙升推动欧洲走向经济衰退，他们对应该多激进的问题存在分歧。爱沙尼亚央行行长Madis Muller周二早些时候发表讲话，敦促欧洲央行采取“足够有力和果断”的行动，称当前的利率仍远不到限制欧元区经济扩张的水平。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos周一表示，经济增长放缓不足以缓解通胀。拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。“利率最终落在何处，以及我们每一步的规模，将取决于通胀前景如何演变，”她说。“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%曾准确预测到2008年金融危机的经济学家鲁比尼认为，美国和全球将在2022年底遭遇“漫长而惨烈”的衰退并在整个2023年都深陷其中，而标普500指数也会大幅下跌。“即使在平淡的普通衰退中标普500指数也可能下跌30%，” Roubini Macro Associates董事长兼首席执行官鲁比尼周一接受采访时表示，在他预计的“真正硬着陆”中，美股可能会重挫40%。鲁比尼对2007年至2008年房地产泡沫破灭的预见使他获得了“末日博士”的绰号。他表示，认为美国只会浅衰退的人应该看看企业和政府的高负债比。随着利率上升和偿债成本增加，“许多机构、居民、企业、银行、影子银行都会完蛋，” 他说，“所以我们到时候就知道谁在裸泳了。”通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光十年河东，十年河西。股市正在经历全球金融危机以来最糟糕的一年，让曾经革命性的量化投资者有机会找回昔日的荣光，一洗他们在廉价货币时代遭受的屈辱。机器驱动的基金依据股票的一些特质（例如廉价程度、上涨速度等）进行交易操作，今年屡试不爽。这就是所谓的因子投资。相比之下，主动管理的对冲基金和短线炒家都没能躲开市场大跌。随着历史性的高通胀引发央行加息，导致大型科技股领涨的格局戛然而止，极端行情正在逆转。标普全球的数据显示，超高市值公司不再独领风骚，标普500指数成份股赢家和输家的差距也达到十多年来的最大。所有这一切都激发了基于规则的基金。买入低波动或高动量个股的策略处于盈利状态，价值股也正在延续疫后的回归。摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在本周两场国会听证会举行前将矛头指向了“资本要求提高”一事。本周三和周四，戴蒙将与美国银行、富国银行、花旗集团等主要银行的掌门人一起出席有关消费者银行业务的国会听证会。在事先准备好的讲稿中，他称赞自己的公司在全球经济中发挥的作用，并警告说“任意增加资本要求”会带来伤害。“美国对大银行持续提高资本金要求本身就构成了重大经济风险，特别是在没有反映实际风险的情况下，” Dimon写道。 “这根本是在错误的时间束缚了受监管的银行，导致它们的资本受到限制，在国家经济艰困时期不利于他们扩大放贷等业务”。摩根大通7月被要求暂停股票回购，以尽快满足与更严格压力测试结果相关的更高资本要求。戴蒙长期以来都对资本要求的提高颇有诟病。德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化德国政府计划向天然气巨头Uniper SE注入大约80亿欧元（80亿美元）资本，以历史性的协议将该公司国有化，同时防止该国能源行业崩溃。Uniper周二证实，在与政府最终商讨一份方案，方案包括80亿欧元的增资，完全由政府认购。德国政府还将购入其主要股东芬兰Fortum Oyj的股份。Uniper是德国国内俄罗斯天然气的最大买家，处在能源危机的核心。在俄罗斯限制对欧洲的能源供应这一背景下，如果Uniper破产，可能对德国经济的各个领域产生波及，并可能威胁燃料供应，因此政府面临行动压力。Uniper股价上涨3%。Fortnum股价跃升9.5%，随后股票的交易被交易所暂停。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919089860,"gmtCreate":1663713322051,"gmtModify":1676537318749,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919089860","repostId":"1159422659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159422659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663677204,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159422659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 20:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market comments | Where is the end of the Fed's current rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159422659","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"》》》盘前 | 三大期指齐挫！高盛预计联储还将加息4次关于周三的加息决定，似乎也没有什么悬念了，从期货市场来看基本上是75个基点（有20%左右概率会是100个基点，可以忽略不计），鲍威尔一定会跟着市场","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1121095051\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | The three major futures indexes all fell! Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to rate hike 4 more times</b></a><b></b></p><p>Regarding Wednesday's rate hike decision, there seems to be no suspense. From the perspective of the futures market, it is basically 75 basis points (there is a probability of about 20% that it will be 100 basis points, which is negligible). Powell will definitely follow the market's expectations. Come and go. After this rate hike, the overnight interest rate in the United States will enter the range of 3%-3.25%. This interest rate is basically flush with the current 10-year interest rate. Even if the 10-year interest rate continues to rise after the rate hike, the curve will definitely be flatter.</p><p>Now we need to think about another question, what is the end point of Powell or the Fed's rate hike (4%? Or 5%?), will the Fed stop rate hike or even start cutting interest rates by the beginning of next year, as predicted by the futures market?</p><p>People who have followed Powell for a long time and analyzed his personality will know that he has a characteristic, that is, he is not very confident. His lack of self-confidence comes from three aspects: (1) his academic qualifications are not as good as those of the former Federal Reserve chairman, (2) the first president he met after taking office bullied him, (3) he encountered the worst COVID-19 pandemic in a century and the worst COVID-19 pandemic in decades. High inflation. Powell, who is not confident, likes to quote history when he is at work, and mentions \"19xx\" from time to time during his speech.</p><p>It's a good thing to like studying history, especially for investing in something where \"experience + innovation\" is equally divided. Studying history is a very good habit. Quantitative Foundation \"backtesting\", Bridgewater will de-digitize historical data. Powell is also right about history, but when he mentions history many times, he feels a little lacking in confidence.</p><p>Throughout the history of \"inflation\" in the United States, there is a period of history that has a huge impact on the current Powell, and that is the 17-year The Great Inflation (Great Inflation) in the United States from 1865 to 1882. Inflation in the United States after World War II will basically rise and then fall. Only during this period, the United States has experienced 17 years of high inflation. In these 17 years, the United States has experienced four economic recessions, two energy crises, and price controls that are only available during wars. This period was also the biggest failure of American macroeconomic policy (Siegel 1994).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0122ab3667e25f66a8990ad80a2aa7d0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Why do you know that this period of history has a huge impact on the current Powell? Because the Wall Street Journal found that Powell highly respected former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and even quoted Volcker's autobiography \"Keeping At It\" when he spoke. Volcker's main achievement (without discussing right or wrong) is to suppress the 17-year U.S. inflation. Although it finally led to a severe recession in the U.S. economy, inflation also went down.</p><p>According to the classic macro curve \"Phillips Curve\", we can only occupy one end between the two goals of inflation and employment. If maximum employment is guaranteed, then inflation will be high; If inflation is required to continue, the unemployment rate will be high. Here's what the curve looks like.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385774ce64fc31a08eee099cde69326\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But during the Great Inflation period, the Fed found that if inflation was allowed to remain high, the unemployment rate would eventually rise. The Phillips curve won't be a fixed curve, but a curve that moves up and down. High inflation has become the main target of the Federal Reserve. After the 2008 financial crisis, global inflation, especially in the United States, has remained low, so the goal of the Federal Reserve has always been to increase employment. But now that employment is saturated and inflation is high, the Fed's goal is automatically adjusted to deal with inflation.</p><p>Why did the United States have high inflation for 17 years? There are many reasons behind this, artificial and natural laws of economy, so I won't expand it here. But one important lesson is that<b>If inflation is high for longer, the likelihood that inflation will fall back will be lower, forming a negative feedback</b>。 From a micro level, it is \"assuming that the breadmaker expects the price of flour to continue to rise, then the breadmaker will raise the price of bread first; if the landlord expects the breadmaker to raise the price of bread, he will also raise the price of bread.\" Raise the rent price \", everyone expects inflation to continue, so inflation will become more stubborn. Powell also understands this truth, so he has repeatedly said that the inflation expectations of society should be eliminated.</p><p>For Powell, the goal now is to suppress inflation as soon as possible, at all costs. The longer it takes, the more troublesome it will be. He will never pay attention to the rise and fall of the stock market. And if the market still interprets him as dovish, and the market rises, he will not be happy, because the rise of the stock market will also drive inflation (if the company's stock rises, then the company's capital expenditure will also rise). So whether it is 4% or 5%, it will not be the ultimate goal of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has no ultimate goal. Volcker increased the interest rate to 20% that year.</p><p>The Federal Reserve canceled the dot plot this time (this thing has never been accurate, I have said it for several years). The purpose is not to give the market any hope of a \"rate hike end point\", and to not want everyone to see the dot plot and say, \"The Fed still has 100 basis points to stop\" (because the dot plot will give a long-term rate hike path). The Fed has to dispel any expectation that the rate hike will end-many people have seen that the Fed will cancel the dot plot this time, but no one thinks about the motivation behind it.</p><p>Another thing to note is that during the 17-year period of great inflation in the United States, inflation went up and down many times. The lowest point of the decline was 3.7%, but inflation rose rapidly later. I don't know if history will repeat this time, but in order to avoid similar recurrence of high inflation this time, Powell will not dare to relax rate hike even if inflation falls to 3.7%, let alone cut interest rates.</p><p>Any expectation that the Fed will turn dove is false.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market comments | Where is the end of the Fed's current rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market comments | Where is the end of the Fed's current rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-20 20:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1121095051\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | The three major futures indexes all fell! Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to rate hike 4 more times</b></a><b></b></p><p>Regarding Wednesday's rate hike decision, there seems to be no suspense. From the perspective of the futures market, it is basically 75 basis points (there is a probability of about 20% that it will be 100 basis points, which is negligible). Powell will definitely follow the market's expectations. Come and go. After this rate hike, the overnight interest rate in the United States will enter the range of 3%-3.25%. This interest rate is basically flush with the current 10-year interest rate. Even if the 10-year interest rate continues to rise after the rate hike, the curve will definitely be flatter.</p><p>Now we need to think about another question, what is the end point of Powell or the Fed's rate hike (4%? Or 5%?), will the Fed stop rate hike or even start cutting interest rates by the beginning of next year, as predicted by the futures market?</p><p>People who have followed Powell for a long time and analyzed his personality will know that he has a characteristic, that is, he is not very confident. His lack of self-confidence comes from three aspects: (1) his academic qualifications are not as good as those of the former Federal Reserve chairman, (2) the first president he met after taking office bullied him, (3) he encountered the worst COVID-19 pandemic in a century and the worst COVID-19 pandemic in decades. High inflation. Powell, who is not confident, likes to quote history when he is at work, and mentions \"19xx\" from time to time during his speech.</p><p>It's a good thing to like studying history, especially for investing in something where \"experience + innovation\" is equally divided. Studying history is a very good habit. Quantitative Foundation \"backtesting\", Bridgewater will de-digitize historical data. Powell is also right about history, but when he mentions history many times, he feels a little lacking in confidence.</p><p>Throughout the history of \"inflation\" in the United States, there is a period of history that has a huge impact on the current Powell, and that is the 17-year The Great Inflation (Great Inflation) in the United States from 1865 to 1882. Inflation in the United States after World War II will basically rise and then fall. Only during this period, the United States has experienced 17 years of high inflation. In these 17 years, the United States has experienced four economic recessions, two energy crises, and price controls that are only available during wars. This period was also the biggest failure of American macroeconomic policy (Siegel 1994).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0122ab3667e25f66a8990ad80a2aa7d0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Why do you know that this period of history has a huge impact on the current Powell? Because the Wall Street Journal found that Powell highly respected former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and even quoted Volcker's autobiography \"Keeping At It\" when he spoke. Volcker's main achievement (without discussing right or wrong) is to suppress the 17-year U.S. inflation. Although it finally led to a severe recession in the U.S. economy, inflation also went down.</p><p>According to the classic macro curve \"Phillips Curve\", we can only occupy one end between the two goals of inflation and employment. If maximum employment is guaranteed, then inflation will be high; If inflation is required to continue, the unemployment rate will be high. Here's what the curve looks like.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385774ce64fc31a08eee099cde69326\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But during the Great Inflation period, the Fed found that if inflation was allowed to remain high, the unemployment rate would eventually rise. The Phillips curve won't be a fixed curve, but a curve that moves up and down. High inflation has become the main target of the Federal Reserve. After the 2008 financial crisis, global inflation, especially in the United States, has remained low, so the goal of the Federal Reserve has always been to increase employment. But now that employment is saturated and inflation is high, the Fed's goal is automatically adjusted to deal with inflation.</p><p>Why did the United States have high inflation for 17 years? There are many reasons behind this, artificial and natural laws of economy, so I won't expand it here. But one important lesson is that<b>If inflation is high for longer, the likelihood that inflation will fall back will be lower, forming a negative feedback</b>。 From a micro level, it is \"assuming that the breadmaker expects the price of flour to continue to rise, then the breadmaker will raise the price of bread first; if the landlord expects the breadmaker to raise the price of bread, he will also raise the price of bread.\" Raise the rent price \", everyone expects inflation to continue, so inflation will become more stubborn. Powell also understands this truth, so he has repeatedly said that the inflation expectations of society should be eliminated.</p><p>For Powell, the goal now is to suppress inflation as soon as possible, at all costs. The longer it takes, the more troublesome it will be. He will never pay attention to the rise and fall of the stock market. And if the market still interprets him as dovish, and the market rises, he will not be happy, because the rise of the stock market will also drive inflation (if the company's stock rises, then the company's capital expenditure will also rise). So whether it is 4% or 5%, it will not be the ultimate goal of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has no ultimate goal. Volcker increased the interest rate to 20% that year.</p><p>The Federal Reserve canceled the dot plot this time (this thing has never been accurate, I have said it for several years). The purpose is not to give the market any hope of a \"rate hike end point\", and to not want everyone to see the dot plot and say, \"The Fed still has 100 basis points to stop\" (because the dot plot will give a long-term rate hike path). The Fed has to dispel any expectation that the rate hike will end-many people have seen that the Fed will cancel the dot plot this time, but no one thinks about the motivation behind it.</p><p>Another thing to note is that during the 17-year period of great inflation in the United States, inflation went up and down many times. The lowest point of the decline was 3.7%, but inflation rose rapidly later. I don't know if history will repeat this time, but in order to avoid similar recurrence of high inflation this time, Powell will not dare to relax rate hike even if inflation falls to 3.7%, let alone cut interest rates.</p><p>Any expectation that the Fed will turn dove is false.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159422659","content_text":"》》》盘前 | 三大期指齐挫！高盛预计联储还将加息4次关于周三的加息决定，似乎也没有什么悬念了，从期货市场来看基本上是75个基点（有20%左右概率会是100个基点，可以忽略不计），鲍威尔一定会跟着市场的期待来走。这次加息之后，美国的隔夜利率会进入3%-3.25%区间，这个利率基本上和当下的10年利率齐平，即使10年利率在加息之后继续攀升，但是曲线一定会更加扁平化。现在需要思考另一个问题，鲍威尔或者说美联储加息的终点是什么（4%？还是5%？），是不是像期货市场预测的那样，到了明年年初美联储会停止加息甚至开始降息？长期跟踪鲍威尔以及分析过他个性的人，会知道他有一个特点，就是不太自信。他的不自信来自于3个方面：（1）学历上不如前任美联储主席，（2）上台之后遇到的第一个总统霸凌他，（3）遇到了百年不遇的新冠疫情和几十年不遇的高通胀。不自信的鲍威尔在工作的时候，喜欢引用历史，说话之间时不时会提到“19xx年”。喜欢研究历史是件好事，特别是对于投资这种“经验+创新”各占一半的事情，研究历史是一个非常好的习惯。量化基金会“回测”，桥水会去数据化历史数据。鲍威尔看历史也是对的，但是嘴上多次提到历史，就有点感觉心里底气有点不足。纵观美国的“通货膨张”历史，有一段历史对于当下的鲍威尔的影响巨大，那就是美国1865-1882年长达17年的The Great Inflation（大通胀）。美国二战后的通胀，基本上都会冒头之后就落下去，唯独这段时间，美国经历了长达17年的高通胀。在这17年时间，美国经历了4次经济衰退，2次能源危机，以及只有战争时期才有的价格管控。这段时间也是美国宏观经济政策最大的失败（the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period” (Siegel 1994).）。为什么知道这段历史对于当下的鲍威尔的影响巨大？因为华尔街日报发现鲍威尔对于前任美联储主席Paul Volcker非常推崇，就连说话都会引用Volcker的自传“Keeping At It”。而Volcker的主要政绩（不讨论对错）就是把长达17年的美国通胀给压了下去，尽管最后导致了美国经济进入了严重衰退，但是通胀也下去了。根据经典的宏观曲线“菲利普斯曲线”，在通胀和就业这两个目标之间，我们只能占到一头。如果保证最大就业，那么通胀就会高；如果要求通胀下去，那么失业率就会高。曲线的样子如下。但是大通胀时期，美联储发现，如果任由通胀高企，那么失业率最后也会上去。菲利普斯曲线不会是一条固定不变的曲线，而是会上下移动的曲线。高通胀就成了美联储要对付的主要目标。在2008年金融危机之后，全球特别是美国的通胀一直保持在低位，所以美联储的目标一直是提高就业。但是当下就业已经饱和，通胀高企，所以美联储的目标就自动调整成对付通胀。为什么当年美国有长达17年的高通胀？这后面有很多原因，有人为的，也有经济自然规律，这里就不展开了。但是有一个重要经验教训，就是如果高通胀的时间越长，那么通胀要想回落的可能性就会越低，形成一种负向反馈。从微观层面来说，就是“假设做面包的人预计面粉价格会持续上涨，那么做面包的人就会先把面包价格提起来；房东如果预期做面包的人会提高面包价格，那么也会把房租价格提起来”，大家都预期通胀会持续那么通胀就会越加顽固。鲍威尔也懂这个道理，所以他一再说要把社会的通胀预期给消灭。对于鲍威尔来说，现在的目标就是尽快把通胀给摁下去，要不惜一切代价，时间拖得越久就越麻烦，什么股市涨跌他是绝对不会理会的。而且如果市场一旦还解读他鸽派，从而市场上涨，他是不高兴的，因为股市上涨也会推动通货膨张（公司股票上涨了，那么公司的资本支出也会上升）。所以无论是4%还是5%，都不会是美联储的最终目标，美联储就没有最终目标，当年Volcker把利率加到了20%。美联储这次取消了点阵图（这东西从来就不准，我说了好几年），目的就是不想给市场任何“加息终点”的希望，不想大家看到点阵图会说“美联储还有100个基点就会停止了”（因为点阵图会给出长期加息路径）。任何期望加息到头的想法，美联储都要打消——很多人都看到了美联储这次会取消点阵图，但是没人去想后面的动机。另外一个需要注意的是，在美国的17年的大通胀时期，通胀是上上下下起伏了好多次，回落的最低点曾经到过3.7%，但是通胀后面又迅速起来了。我不知道这次历史会不会重复，但是鲍威尔会为了避免这次出现类似的高通胀反复，即使通胀跌到3.7%也不敢放松加息，更不要说降息了。任何期待美联储转鸽的想法，皆是虚妄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910162468,"gmtCreate":1663579048155,"gmtModify":1676537294558,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910162468","repostId":"1194761598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194761598","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663575168,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194761598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 16:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Change | Bitcoin fell below 19,000! Concept stocks tumbled before the market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194761598","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，Marathon Digita","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 19, U.S. stock index futures fell collectively, with Dow futures falling 0.56%, Nasdaq futures falling 0.72%, and S&P 500 futures falling 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272b93dd9a2ae1a407cfae9ba97a9fa5\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bitcoin once fell below $19,000 per coin today, and U.S. blockchain concept stocks generally fell before the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>Fell nearly 2%;</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down 1.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Down 1.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.43%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>It fell nearly 10% before the market, terminating the delivery of IDT Biologika to COVID-19 vaccine;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>It fell 2.5% before the market, and the company will lay off 3% of Shopee employees in Indonesia;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two</a>It fell more than 5% before the market. Previously, a large number of scene videos of \"Grand Theft Auto 6\" that had not been officially announced were leaked, and hackers sought to negotiate a deal;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">Phunware</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the company's directors sold a net 20,000 shares of the company.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Change | Bitcoin fell below 19,000! Concept stocks tumbled before the market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChange | Bitcoin fell below 19,000! Concept stocks tumbled before the market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-19 16:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 19, U.S. stock index futures fell collectively, with Dow futures falling 0.56%, Nasdaq futures falling 0.72%, and S&P 500 futures falling 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272b93dd9a2ae1a407cfae9ba97a9fa5\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bitcoin once fell below $19,000 per coin today, and U.S. blockchain concept stocks generally fell before the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>Fell nearly 2%;</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down 1.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Down 1.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.43%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>It fell nearly 10% before the market, terminating the delivery of IDT Biologika to COVID-19 vaccine;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>It fell 2.5% before the market, and the company will lay off 3% of Shopee employees in Indonesia;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two</a>It fell more than 5% before the market. Previously, a large number of scene videos of \"Grand Theft Auto 6\" that had not been officially announced were leaked, and hackers sought to negotiate a deal;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">Phunware</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the company's directors sold a net 20,000 shares of the company.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","MSTR.AU":"MORNINGSTAR INTL SHARES ACT","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4509":"腾讯概念","NIO":"蔚来","BK4524":"宅经济概念","EDU":"新东方","BK4527":"明星科技股","KRKR":"36氪","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4526":"热门中概股","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","MARA":"MARA Holdings","EDU.AU":"EDU HOLDINGS LTD","BK4575":"芯片概念","MSTR":"Strategy","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK4538":"云计算","RIOT":"Riot Platforms"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194761598","content_text":"9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，Marathon Digital跌超6%，Coinbase、Riot Blockchain跌超5%，MicroStrategy跌超3%，Bit Digital跌近2%；热门中概股盘前走低，36氪跌超6%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，蔚来跌1.74%，新东方跌1.6%，阿里巴巴跌1.43%；Valneva盘前跌近10%，终止对IDT Biologika交付新冠疫苗；Sea盘前跌2.5%，公司将在印尼解雇3%的Shopee员工；Take-Two盘前跌超5%，此前其尚未正式公布的《侠盗猎车手6》大量场景视频泄露，黑客寻求谈判交易；Phunware盘前跌超3%，公司董事净卖出2万股公司股份。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EDU.AU":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"EDU":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"MSTR":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"MSTR.AU":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"KRKR":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937556068,"gmtCreate":1663470611555,"gmtModify":1676537275364,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937556068","repostId":"1182267949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182267949","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663413984,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182267949?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 19:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's hard to stop! These two numbers are making it harder for the Fed this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182267949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"零售销售放缓之余，劳动力市场的火热让美联储加息再难有回旋余地。而长期趋势来看，核心零售销售水平的高位以及零售商利润率的扩大继续对商品通胀施加压力，推动美联储加息以冷却经济活动。劳动力市场强劲首次申请失业金人数显示，美国劳动市场正在复苏。野村证券认为，在预期通胀有意义地向目标下降之前，美联储需要冷却劳动力市场。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The possibility of a soft landing is far away. In addition to the slowdown in retail sales, the hot labor market makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve's rate hike to have room for manoeuvre.</p><p>In the latest report of Nomura Securities on Thursday, analysts pointed out that the current weakening U.S. retail sales data and the slowing manufacturing index further add to the clarification that the U.S. economy is heading for recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55e2c0d3f86e15b081445e564157e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At the same time, the still hot CPI data and<b>Persistently lower initial claims reinforce the importance of fast-track rate hike</b>, as the market may have begun to see deeply ingrained high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822a908530fc15573a3898d0ffd7086a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In view of this, Nomura Securities' forecast for U.S. real GDP in the third quarter of 2022 was revised down to 1.1% from 1.5% on an annualized basis.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that as the economy slows down, the Fed's mission and need to tighten the financial environment have become more urgent, and the so-called \"soft landing\" to curb inflation without the economy falling into recession may be fading away.</p><p>Core retail sales show slowing consumption</p><p>Core retail sales are the basic input part of personal consumption in GDP. Although U.S. retail sales in August exceeded expectations month-on-month, core data reflected signs of slowing down.</p><p>After deflating nominal core retail sales data using a weighted combination of August CPI data, Nomura estimates that real core retail sales in the United States fell 0.6% month-over-month.</p><p>Analysts said this may be partly because July data was driven by Prime Day, Amazon's big promotion event. However, even excluding online sales from the calculation, Nomura Securities' estimated actual core retail sales still fell by 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcc16a43caf18b2e7ae06b1dd780f6a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura noted that this slowdown is a general trend in the consumer sector and is increasingly evident in business sentiment in manufacturing.<b>With the consumer sector cooling and manufacturing slowing, the signals of an impending recession appear to be getting bigger and bigger.</b></p><p>Analysts expect that,<b>This recession in the U.S. economy will begin in the fourth quarter of 2022.</b></p><p>Looking at the long-term trend, the high level of core retail sales and the expansion of retailer profit margins continue to put pressure on commodity inflation, driving the Federal Reserve's rate hike to cool economic activity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc2182d74dd370cddcb786f096c32dc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"977\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Strong labor market</p><p>The number of initial jobless claims shows that the U.S. labor market is recovering.</p><p>Despite the continued cooling trend in consumer and manufacturing activity, the job market data released in the fortnight of September 3 and September 10 continued to maintain strong momentum. Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000 on Sept. 10 from 218,000; Continuing jobless claims fell more than expected again, at 143,000, compared to the consensus estimate of 147,800.</p><p>Analysts noted that while the labor market remains one of the few strong sectors of the economy, strong labor demand is a driver of the current high inflation.</p><p>Recent Fed speeches show that members are increasingly worried about the risk of a wage spiral, while the no longer sustained strong unemployment claims show that,<b>The hot labor market is driving the current wage increase to intensify</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3780ae4a8445435a88c038babbdc6aeb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1063\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura believes the Fed needs to cool the labor market before expected inflation can meaningfully decline towards its target. As a result, the continued unusually strong job market data reinforces the pressure on the strength of the rate hike.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's hard to stop! These two numbers are making it harder for the Fed this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's hard to stop! These two numbers are making it harder for the Fed this week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-17 19:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The possibility of a soft landing is far away. In addition to the slowdown in retail sales, the hot labor market makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve's rate hike to have room for manoeuvre.</p><p>In the latest report of Nomura Securities on Thursday, analysts pointed out that the current weakening U.S. retail sales data and the slowing manufacturing index further add to the clarification that the U.S. economy is heading for recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55e2c0d3f86e15b081445e564157e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At the same time, the still hot CPI data and<b>Persistently lower initial claims reinforce the importance of fast-track rate hike</b>, as the market may have begun to see deeply ingrained high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822a908530fc15573a3898d0ffd7086a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In view of this, Nomura Securities' forecast for U.S. real GDP in the third quarter of 2022 was revised down to 1.1% from 1.5% on an annualized basis.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that as the economy slows down, the Fed's mission and need to tighten the financial environment have become more urgent, and the so-called \"soft landing\" to curb inflation without the economy falling into recession may be fading away.</p><p>Core retail sales show slowing consumption</p><p>Core retail sales are the basic input part of personal consumption in GDP. Although U.S. retail sales in August exceeded expectations month-on-month, core data reflected signs of slowing down.</p><p>After deflating nominal core retail sales data using a weighted combination of August CPI data, Nomura estimates that real core retail sales in the United States fell 0.6% month-over-month.</p><p>Analysts said this may be partly because July data was driven by Prime Day, Amazon's big promotion event. However, even excluding online sales from the calculation, Nomura Securities' estimated actual core retail sales still fell by 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcc16a43caf18b2e7ae06b1dd780f6a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura noted that this slowdown is a general trend in the consumer sector and is increasingly evident in business sentiment in manufacturing.<b>With the consumer sector cooling and manufacturing slowing, the signals of an impending recession appear to be getting bigger and bigger.</b></p><p>Analysts expect that,<b>This recession in the U.S. economy will begin in the fourth quarter of 2022.</b></p><p>Looking at the long-term trend, the high level of core retail sales and the expansion of retailer profit margins continue to put pressure on commodity inflation, driving the Federal Reserve's rate hike to cool economic activity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc2182d74dd370cddcb786f096c32dc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"977\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Strong labor market</p><p>The number of initial jobless claims shows that the U.S. labor market is recovering.</p><p>Despite the continued cooling trend in consumer and manufacturing activity, the job market data released in the fortnight of September 3 and September 10 continued to maintain strong momentum. Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000 on Sept. 10 from 218,000; Continuing jobless claims fell more than expected again, at 143,000, compared to the consensus estimate of 147,800.</p><p>Analysts noted that while the labor market remains one of the few strong sectors of the economy, strong labor demand is a driver of the current high inflation.</p><p>Recent Fed speeches show that members are increasingly worried about the risk of a wage spiral, while the no longer sustained strong unemployment claims show that,<b>The hot labor market is driving the current wage increase to intensify</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3780ae4a8445435a88c038babbdc6aeb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1063\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura believes the Fed needs to cool the labor market before expected inflation can meaningfully decline towards its target. As a result, the continued unusually strong job market data reinforces the pressure on the strength of the rate hike.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670547\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670547","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182267949","content_text":"软着陆的可能性已经远去。零售销售放缓之余，劳动力市场的火热让美联储加息再难有回旋余地。在本周四野村证券最新报告中，分析师指出，当前美国零售销售数据走弱和制造业指数放缓进一步增明了美国经济正在走向衰退。与此同时，依然火热的CPI数据和持续降低的首次申领失业金人数强化了快速加息的重要性，因为市场可能已经开始出现根深蒂固的高通胀。鉴于此，野村证券对美国2022年第三季度实际GDP的预测从年化的1.5%下修至1.1%。分析师指出，在经济减速的情况下，美联储收紧金融环境的使命和需求也变为更加迫切，所谓在经济不陷入衰退的情况下抑制通胀的“软着陆”可能正在远去。核心零售销售显示消费放缓核心零售销售是GDP中个人消费的基本投入部分，尽管美国8月零售销售环比超预期，但核心数据却反映出放缓迹象。在使用8月CPI数据的加权组合对名义核心零售销售数据进行平减后，野村证券估计美国实际核心零售销售环比下降0.6%。分析师表示，这在一定程度上可能是因为7月份的数据受到亚马逊大促活动Prime Day的推动。不过即使将线上销售排除在计算之外，野村证券估计的实际核心零售销售仍然下降了0.3%。野村证券指出，这种放缓是消费部门的普遍趋势，在制造业的商业情绪中也越来越明显。随着消费行业的降温和制造业的不断放缓，即将到来的衰退信号似乎越来越大。分析师预计，美国经济的这场衰退将于2022年第四季度开始。而长期趋势来看，核心零售销售水平的高位以及零售商利润率的扩大继续对商品通胀施加压力，推动美联储加息以冷却经济活动。劳动力市场强劲首次申请失业金人数显示，美国劳动市场正在复苏。尽管消费和制造业活动持续降温趋势，但9月3日和9月10日这两周公布的就业市场数据继续保持强劲势头。9月10日首次申请失业救济人数从21.8万人降至21.3万人；持续申领失业救济人数再次超预期下降，为14.3万人，而普遍预测为14.78万人。分析师指出，虽然劳动力市场仍然是经济中为数不多的强劲部门之一，但强劲的劳动力需求是当前高通胀的一个驱动因素。近期的美联储讲话显示，委员们越来越担心工资螺旋上升的风险，而不再持续的强劲失业申请人数表明，劳动力市场火热，正推动当前工资上涨的加剧。野村证券认为，在预期通胀有意义地向目标下降之前，美联储需要冷却劳动力市场。因此，持续异常强劲的就业市场数据强化了加息力度的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937693199,"gmtCreate":1663409392811,"gmtModify":1676537267214,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937693199","repostId":"1138147578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138147578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663316748,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138147578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 16:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview | 250 billion leader flash crash! What happened to the \"bull flag bearer\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138147578","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒科指跌2.65%刷新阶段低价，濠赌股逆势走强；A股三大指数跌逾2%，两市4200股下跌；美股指期货、欧股、原油、黄金均走低>>>港股港股全天维持跌势，三大指数均刷新阶段低价。恒指跌0.89%，国指跌","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Hengke Index fell 2.65% to refresh the low price in the stage, and gambling stocks bucked the trend and strengthened; The three major A-share indexes fell by more than 2%, and 4,200 shares in the two cities fell; U.S. stock index futures, European stocks, crude oil, and gold all fell > > ><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with the three major indexes all refreshing stage low prices. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.89%, the State Index fell 1.36%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.65%. The net inflow of southbound funds bucked the trend and was 2.471 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the market turnover enlarged to 123.9 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038daf7de4e0b58c05f167b35dd51aeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks continued to fall, dragging the market lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Fell nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>All fell; Coal stocks and power stocks were among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">Yankuang Energy</a>After reading the correction, the State Council encouraged brokerages to reduce service charges, Chinese brokerage stocks fell sharply, and auto stocks continued their decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Both fell more than 4%. On the other hand, seven gaming companies conducted bidding opening procedures in the morning to bid for six Macau gaming licenses. Macau gambling stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, while aviation stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks and dairy stocks rose.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market moved lower in open low throughout the day, with the three major indexes all falling more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>The intraday market value fell below the trillion mark. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.34%. Northbound funds sold a net of 4.512 billion yuan throughout the day, of which Shanghai Stock Connect sold a net of 1.855 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect sold a net of 2.657 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4717cf6de4afd8a4ee62e77530098c2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the market, software-related sectors bucked the trend and strengthened, with data security, digital currency and other directions leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003029\">Yoshida Masamoto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">Massive data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000948\">Nantian Information</a>Wait for the daily limit. In addition, many sectors such as military industry, TOPCON batteries, and chips were active during the session, but they all rose and fell in the end. In terms of decline, many blue-chip sectors such as brokerages and coal collectively adjusted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Fell more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600397\">Anyuan Coal Industry</a>Down the limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">Guolian Securities</a>Wait for a drop of more than 5%. Generally speaking, individual stocks fell more and rose less. More than 4,200 stocks in the two cities fell, and the number of stocks that fell for two consecutive days exceeded 4,000. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 799.4 billion, a decrease of 119.7 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, only a few sectors such as data security, digital currency, and hotels rose, while sectors such as securities, coal, oil and gas, and new urbanization were among the top losers.</p><p>Today, the securities sector fell first in the market. As of the close, the sector index fell nearly 5%, and the \"securities mao\" Oriental Fortune fell more than 10%, leading the decline in the securities sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e87b37967df66fe3c086239fab631de\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yesterday, the \"Opinions on Further Optimizing the Business Environment and Reducing the Institutional Transaction Costs of Market Entities\" issued by the General Office of the State Council proposed to encourage securities, funds, guarantees and other institutions to further reduce service charges. Regarding today's stock price performance, Oriental Fortune responded to a brokerage Chinese reporter that the company is operating normally.</p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.75%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.98%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.85%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cbeedc8e9485f7564bd997828d608cd\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>It fell 18% before the market, after announcing that the preliminary first-quarter revenue data of US $23.2 billion was lower than expected, and the full-year performance guidance was withdrawn.</p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Major European indexes fell across the board, with Germany's DAX30 falling 1.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 0.06%, and France's CAC40 fell 1.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f314915154c061ee6845cfb1e8f39\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was at US $84.59 per barrel, down 0.6%; Brent oil is now trading at $90.5 a barrel, down 0.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa46f7acbc2324e9dfcc71c45333f89\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca07cce668a790f61cccd06368df6d7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell in the short term and are now down 0.8% at $1,663.9 an ounce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176afa5f71746b0c43139a73fde7c7cc\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview | 250 billion leader flash crash! What happened to the \"bull flag bearer\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview | 250 billion leader flash crash! What happened to the \"bull flag bearer\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-16 16:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Hengke Index fell 2.65% to refresh the low price in the stage, and gambling stocks bucked the trend and strengthened; The three major A-share indexes fell by more than 2%, and 4,200 shares in the two cities fell; U.S. stock index futures, European stocks, crude oil, and gold all fell > > ><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with the three major indexes all refreshing stage low prices. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.89%, the State Index fell 1.36%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.65%. The net inflow of southbound funds bucked the trend and was 2.471 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the market turnover enlarged to 123.9 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038daf7de4e0b58c05f167b35dd51aeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks continued to fall, dragging the market lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Fell nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>All fell; Coal stocks and power stocks were among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">Yankuang Energy</a>After reading the correction, the State Council encouraged brokerages to reduce service charges, Chinese brokerage stocks fell sharply, and auto stocks continued their decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Both fell more than 4%. On the other hand, seven gaming companies conducted bidding opening procedures in the morning to bid for six Macau gaming licenses. Macau gambling stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, while aviation stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks and dairy stocks rose.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market moved lower in open low throughout the day, with the three major indexes all falling more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>The intraday market value fell below the trillion mark. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.34%. Northbound funds sold a net of 4.512 billion yuan throughout the day, of which Shanghai Stock Connect sold a net of 1.855 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect sold a net of 2.657 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4717cf6de4afd8a4ee62e77530098c2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the market, software-related sectors bucked the trend and strengthened, with data security, digital currency and other directions leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003029\">Yoshida Masamoto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">Massive data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000948\">Nantian Information</a>Wait for the daily limit. In addition, many sectors such as military industry, TOPCON batteries, and chips were active during the session, but they all rose and fell in the end. In terms of decline, many blue-chip sectors such as brokerages and coal collectively adjusted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Fell more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600397\">Anyuan Coal Industry</a>Down the limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">Guolian Securities</a>Wait for a drop of more than 5%. Generally speaking, individual stocks fell more and rose less. More than 4,200 stocks in the two cities fell, and the number of stocks that fell for two consecutive days exceeded 4,000. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 799.4 billion, a decrease of 119.7 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, only a few sectors such as data security, digital currency, and hotels rose, while sectors such as securities, coal, oil and gas, and new urbanization were among the top losers.</p><p>Today, the securities sector fell first in the market. As of the close, the sector index fell nearly 5%, and the \"securities mao\" Oriental Fortune fell more than 10%, leading the decline in the securities sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e87b37967df66fe3c086239fab631de\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yesterday, the \"Opinions on Further Optimizing the Business Environment and Reducing the Institutional Transaction Costs of Market Entities\" issued by the General Office of the State Council proposed to encourage securities, funds, guarantees and other institutions to further reduce service charges. Regarding today's stock price performance, Oriental Fortune responded to a brokerage Chinese reporter that the company is operating normally.</p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.75%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.98%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.85%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cbeedc8e9485f7564bd997828d608cd\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>It fell 18% before the market, after announcing that the preliminary first-quarter revenue data of US $23.2 billion was lower than expected, and the full-year performance guidance was withdrawn.</p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Major European indexes fell across the board, with Germany's DAX30 falling 1.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 0.06%, and France's CAC40 fell 1.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f314915154c061ee6845cfb1e8f39\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was at US $84.59 per barrel, down 0.6%; Brent oil is now trading at $90.5 a barrel, down 0.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa46f7acbc2324e9dfcc71c45333f89\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca07cce668a790f61cccd06368df6d7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell in the short term and are now down 0.8% at $1,663.9 an ounce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176afa5f71746b0c43139a73fde7c7cc\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","000001.SH":"上证指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138147578","content_text":"恒科指跌2.65%刷新阶段低价，濠赌股逆势走强；A股三大指数跌逾2%，两市4200股下跌；美股指期货、欧股、原油、黄金均走低>>>港股港股全天维持跌势，三大指数均刷新阶段低价。恒指跌0.89%，国指跌1.36%，恒生科技指数跌2.65%。南下资金逆势净流入24.71亿港元，大市成交额放大至1239亿港元。盘面上，大型科技股继续下跌拖累大市走低，快手-W跌超7%，百度集团-SW跌近4%，腾讯控股、美团-W、京东集团-SW、阿里巴巴-SW、小米集团-W皆下跌；煤炭股与电力股跌幅靠前，兖矿能源连读回调，国办鼓励券商降低服务收费，中资券商股大跌，汽车股延续跌势，理想汽车-W、小鹏汽车-W均跌超4%。另一方面，7家博彩企业上午进行开标程序竞投6张澳门博彩牌照，濠赌股逆势走强，航空股、蓝筹地产股、乳制品股部分上涨。A股大盘全天低开低走，三大指数均跌超2%，宁德时代盘中市值跌破万亿大关。截止收盘，沪指跌2.3%，深成指跌2.3%，创业板指跌2.34%。北向资金全天净卖出45.12亿元，其中沪股通净卖出18.55亿元，深股通净卖出26.57亿元。盘面上，软件相关板块逆势走强，数据安全、数字货币等方向领涨，吉大正元、海量数据、南天信息等涨停。此外军工、TOPCON电池、芯片等多个板块盘中活跃，但最终均冲高回落。下跌方面，券商、煤炭等多个蓝筹板块集体调整，东方财富跌超10%，安源煤业跌停，广发证券、国联证券等跌超5%。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超4200只个股下跌，连续两日下跌个股家数超4000家。沪深两市今日成交额7994亿，较上个交易日缩量1197亿。板块方面，仅数据安全、数字货币、酒店等少数板块上涨，证券、煤炭、油气、新型城镇化等板块跌幅居前。今日证券板块跌幅全市场第一，截至收盘，板块指数大跌近5%，“券茅”东方财富重挫逾10%，领跌证券板块。昨日，国务院办公厅印发的《关于进一步优化营商环境降低市场主体制度性交易成本的意见》提出，鼓励证券、基金、担保等机构进一步降低服务收费。对于今日股价表现，东方财富回应券商中国记者称，公司经营一切正常。美股美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.75%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.98%，标普500指数期货跌0.85%。联邦快递盘前重挫18%，此前公布第一季度营收初步数据232亿美元不及预期，并撤销全年业绩指引。欧股欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌1.74%，英国富时100跌0.06%，法国CAC40跌1.31%。原油原油期货短线下挫，截止发稿，WTI原油报84.59美元/桶，跌0.6%；布油现报90.5美元/桶，跌0.37%。黄金黄金期货短线下挫，现跌0.8%，报1663.9美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937848519,"gmtCreate":1663402695131,"gmtModify":1676537266351,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937848519","repostId":"1184702115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184702115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663370103,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184702115?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 07:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street's most accurate analyst: U.S. stocks are going to fall until October, and the trading strategy for 2023 is here","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184702115","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"关于明年，Hartnett认为，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Regarding next year, Hartnett believes that the most important transactions are to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging market countries. Once there is a clear signal of U.S. economic recession, or a black swan event is triggered, the dollar may collapse at any time.</b>According to Michael Hartnett, the analyst who predicts the trend of U.S. stocks most accurately this year and a strategist at Bank of America, the current decline in U.S. stocks is not over yet, and the pain will last until next month. Next year, the most important transaction is to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging market countries.</p><p>The most important factor that continues the pain of U.S. stocks is inflation in the United States. Hartnett believes that the current inflation is difficult to drop to 4% to 5% soon. Wall Street generally expects that only when inflation falls to this level will the Fed have the possibility of loosening current policies.</p><p>Hartnett believes that in the next four to five months, the Federal Funds rate of the United States will reach 4% to 5%. In the next four to five quarters, the unemployment rate in the United States will also rise to 4% to 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43762388df32abbd82f700f3eb7ec869\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hartnett said: A new high in interest rates = a new low in US stocks.</b></p><p>Turning to the current general pessimism, he believes that financial conditions will tighten rapidly again as the inflationary shock is not over yet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf853bc177543126262091388e6c73\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced 20 bear markets in the past 140 years, with an average peak-to-trough decline of 37.3% and an average duration of 289 days. If you look at it this way, this bear market will end on October 19 this year, and the S&P 500 index will reach a minimum of 3,020 points. This is actually not Hartnett's new point of view. He said in May this year that this year's bear market will end in October, and the S&P 500 index will be as low as 3,000 points.</p><p>It is worth noting that in 2008, the U.S. stock market also started a bottom out in late October, but then bottomed out twice.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc0d5657e1a150fc568db66ee7ac85c\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hartnett said that currently, U.S. stocks have not experienced the impact of a sharp decline in profits of listed companies. Yesterday, FedEx withdrew its fiscal year 2023 performance guidance, which may be the beginning of this process.</p><p>Global markets are more volatile, heading towards long-term inflation</p><p>Soon, the Federal Reserve will rate hike 75 or even 100 basis points this month, and the yen will depreciate further to 150. In the next three months, a series of major events will take place: the Italian election, the U.S. mid-term elections, the G20 summit, the Western determination of the Russian oil price ceiling, etc. Hartnett believes that these events will make the market more turbulent.</p><p>In addition, Hartnett believes that inflation will be a long-term problem rather than a short-term solvable problem. The latest arguments are a 14% pay increase for U.S. freight railroad workers and a drop in U.S. strategic oil supplies to their lowest level since 1984. Globally, Germany's nationalization of the public utility sector, the EU's steel industry seeking government assistance, the G7's price control on energy prices and substantial increase in military spending, constant geopolitical conflicts and other factors all mean that the current world is shifting from long-term deflation to long-term inflation.</p><p>How is it currently trading?</p><p>In the current market environment, Hartnett's advice is to maintain a defensive strategy, and to turn bullish on U.S. stocks, the following conditions are needed: initial unemployment claims exceed 350,000, U.S. bond yields exceed 4%, credit spreads widening, and the dollar falling.</p><p>This could all happen by the end of the first quarter of next year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of this year, Hartnett believes that investors should sell dollars while buying commodities, banks, small-cap stocks, emerging market stocks, and value stocks that perform against a backdrop of high but stable inflation. That is to say, avoid highly leveraged companies, technology stocks, private equity and other winners in the quantitative easing era.</p><p>Regarding the whole year of next year, he believes that the most important thing is to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging market countries. Once there is a clear signal of U.S. economic recession, or a black swan event is triggered, the dollar may collapse at any time.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street's most accurate analyst: U.S. stocks are going to fall until October, and the trading strategy for 2023 is here</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street's most accurate analyst: U.S. stocks are going to fall until October, and the trading strategy for 2023 is here\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-17 07:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Regarding next year, Hartnett believes that the most important transactions are to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging market countries. Once there is a clear signal of U.S. economic recession, or a black swan event is triggered, the dollar may collapse at any time.</b>According to Michael Hartnett, the analyst who predicts the trend of U.S. stocks most accurately this year and a strategist at Bank of America, the current decline in U.S. stocks is not over yet, and the pain will last until next month. Next year, the most important transaction is to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging market countries.</p><p>The most important factor that continues the pain of U.S. stocks is inflation in the United States. Hartnett believes that the current inflation is difficult to drop to 4% to 5% soon. Wall Street generally expects that only when inflation falls to this level will the Fed have the possibility of loosening current policies.</p><p>Hartnett believes that in the next four to five months, the Federal Funds rate of the United States will reach 4% to 5%. In the next four to five quarters, the unemployment rate in the United States will also rise to 4% to 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43762388df32abbd82f700f3eb7ec869\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hartnett said: A new high in interest rates = a new low in US stocks.</b></p><p>Turning to the current general pessimism, he believes that financial conditions will tighten rapidly again as the inflationary shock is not over yet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf853bc177543126262091388e6c73\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced 20 bear markets in the past 140 years, with an average peak-to-trough decline of 37.3% and an average duration of 289 days. If you look at it this way, this bear market will end on October 19 this year, and the S&P 500 index will reach a minimum of 3,020 points. This is actually not Hartnett's new point of view. He said in May this year that this year's bear market will end in October, and the S&P 500 index will be as low as 3,000 points.</p><p>It is worth noting that in 2008, the U.S. stock market also started a bottom out in late October, but then bottomed out twice.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc0d5657e1a150fc568db66ee7ac85c\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hartnett said that currently, U.S. stocks have not experienced the impact of a sharp decline in profits of listed companies. Yesterday, FedEx withdrew its fiscal year 2023 performance guidance, which may be the beginning of this process.</p><p>Global markets are more volatile, heading towards long-term inflation</p><p>Soon, the Federal Reserve will rate hike 75 or even 100 basis points this month, and the yen will depreciate further to 150. In the next three months, a series of major events will take place: the Italian election, the U.S. mid-term elections, the G20 summit, the Western determination of the Russian oil price ceiling, etc. Hartnett believes that these events will make the market more turbulent.</p><p>In addition, Hartnett believes that inflation will be a long-term problem rather than a short-term solvable problem. The latest arguments are a 14% pay increase for U.S. freight railroad workers and a drop in U.S. strategic oil supplies to their lowest level since 1984. Globally, Germany's nationalization of the public utility sector, the EU's steel industry seeking government assistance, the G7's price control on energy prices and substantial increase in military spending, constant geopolitical conflicts and other factors all mean that the current world is shifting from long-term deflation to long-term inflation.</p><p>How is it currently trading?</p><p>In the current market environment, Hartnett's advice is to maintain a defensive strategy, and to turn bullish on U.S. stocks, the following conditions are needed: initial unemployment claims exceed 350,000, U.S. bond yields exceed 4%, credit spreads widening, and the dollar falling.</p><p>This could all happen by the end of the first quarter of next year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of this year, Hartnett believes that investors should sell dollars while buying commodities, banks, small-cap stocks, emerging market stocks, and value stocks that perform against a backdrop of high but stable inflation. That is to say, avoid highly leveraged companies, technology stocks, private equity and other winners in the quantitative easing era.</p><p>Regarding the whole year of next year, he believes that the most important thing is to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging market countries. Once there is a clear signal of U.S. economic recession, or a black swan event is triggered, the dollar may collapse at any time.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670528\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670528","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184702115","content_text":"关于明年，Hartnett认为，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett看来，当前美股的下挫还没结束，痛苦要持续到下个月。而明年，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。令美股痛苦延续的最重要因素是美国的通胀，Hartnett认为，当前的通胀很难很快降至4%到5%的水平。华尔街普遍预计，只有当通胀降至这一水平，美联储才可能有松动当前政策的可能性。Hartnett认为，未来4到5个月内，美国的联邦基金利率将达到4%至5%。而在未来四到五个季度，美国的失业率也将上升到4%到5%。Hartnett称：利率的新高=美股的新低。谈到当前普遍的悲观情绪，他认为，由于通胀冲击还没有结束，金融状况将再次迅速收紧。从历史上来看，标普500指数在过去140年中经历了20次熊市，平均峰谷跌幅达到37.3%，平均持续时间289天。如果以此来看的话，本轮熊市将在今年10月19日结束，标准普尔500指数最低将触达3020点。这其实不是Hartnett的新观点，他在今年5月就说，今年的熊市将在10月结束，标普500指数最低为3000点。值得注意的是，2008年，美股也是在10月下旬开始触底反弹，但之后又二次探底。Hartnett称，当前，美股还没经历上市公司利润大幅下滑的冲击。而昨天联邦快递撤销2023财年业绩指引，可能是这一过程的开端。全球市场更为动荡，走向长期通胀很快，美联储将在本月加息75个甚至100个基点，日元也将进一步贬值至150。而在之后的三个月中，一系列重大事件将发生：意大利大选、美国中期选举、G20峰会、西方对俄罗斯油价上限的确定等等，Hartnett认为，这些事件都将令市场更为动荡。此外，Hartnett认为，通胀将会是长期的，而不是短暂可以解决的问题。最新的论据是美国货运铁路工人加薪14%以及美国战略石油供应降至自1984年以来最低。从全球来看，德国将公用事业部门国有化、欧盟钢铁业寻求政府援助、G7对能源价格的价格控制并大幅增加军费、地缘冲突不断等等因素，都意味着当前的世界正在从长期通缩转向长期通胀。当前如何交易？在当前的市场环境下，Hartnett的建议是保持防御策略，而要转向看涨美股，则需要以下条件：首次申请失业救济人数超过35万，美债收益率超过4%，信用利差扩大，美元回落。这一切可能会在明年一季度末发生。在今年四季度，Hartnett认为，投资者应当卖出美元，同时买入在高通胀但稳定的通胀背景下表现的大宗商品、银行、小型股、新兴市场股票、价值股。也就是说，避免高杠杆的公司、科技股、私募股权等在量化宽松时期的赢家。关于明年全年，他认为，最重要的是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9936825330,"gmtCreate":1662758281420,"gmtModify":1676537132513,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$[得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1090822b5229b7be14a209f15c2e953c","width":"1125","height":"2040"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936825330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932310996,"gmtCreate":1662872596315,"gmtModify":1676537155746,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932310996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989120701,"gmtCreate":1665960362603,"gmtModify":1676537682088,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56199689c37fc32117504645140d4a54","width":"1125","height":"1863"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989120701","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914737823,"gmtCreate":1665365335362,"gmtModify":1676537592420,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b0313bb0da125365a2a42de14343e8b","width":"1125","height":"1971"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914737823","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918492213,"gmtCreate":1664425875333,"gmtModify":1676537453135,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","text":"$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918492213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937105251,"gmtCreate":1663376506973,"gmtModify":1676537261041,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937105251","repostId":"1181100698","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181100698","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663370391,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181100698?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 07:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | Bone-piercing cold! The three major stock indexes all fell more than 4% on the week, and FedEx fell 21%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181100698","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%；热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%；联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报，创近40年最大单日跌幅。海外市场1、联邦快递带来彻骨","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>Bringing a deep \"chill\", the three major stock indexes all fell by more than 4% this week; Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks fell, \"Wei Xiaoli\" all fell by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 20%; FedEx pre-disclosed \"ugly\" financial report, the biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>1. FedEx brought a deep \"chill\", and the three major stock indexes all fell by more than 4% this week.</b></p><p>As U.S. logistics giant FedEx sounded the financial alarm bell, fears of economic recession dragged down the collective weakening of the market. U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.72% to 3873.33 points; The Nasdaq index fell 0.90% to 11448.40 points; The Dow Jones fell 0.45% to 30,822.42 points.</p><p>All three major stock indexes fell more than 4% this week. This week, the Dow fell 4.13%, the S&P 500 fell 4.77%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.48%.</p><p><b>2. Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks fell. \"Wei Xiaoli\" fell more than 6%, and AMTD Digital fell nearly 20%.</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell nearly 4%, and new car-making forces all fell by more than 6%. Among other stocks, AMTD Digital fell nearly 20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Fell more than 7%, bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 5%.</p><p><b>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX30 index fell 1.66%</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, with the German DAX30 index falling 1.66% and falling 2.65% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%, down 1.56% this week; The French CAC40 index fell 1.31%, down 2.17% this week; The Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 1.21%, down 2.16% this week.</p><p><b>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 1.9% this week</b></p><p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for October delivery rose 1 cent to settle at $85.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures prices fell 1.9% this week.</p><p><b>5. Gold futures closed 0.4% higher on Friday and fell 2.6% this week</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday. Gold prices were supported after the September consumer confidence index was released. But the gold price still recorded its fourth weekly decline in five weeks this week. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.20, or 0.4%, to close at $1,683.50 an ounce. Gold futures contracts fell 2.6% this week, their fourth weekly decline in the past five weeks.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Eight House Democrats ask Biden to keep releasing oil reserves</b></p><p>According to market news, eight House Democrats sent a letter to U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday, saying that the government should continue to release strategic petroleum reserves \"at least\" until the end of the year. Congressmen led by Jared Golden said in the letter that persistently high oil prices, coupled with the unlikely end of the Russia-Ukraine war in the near future and the possibility of further disruption of domestic oil production caused by the hurricane season, should be reasons for continuing to release oil reserves. Earlier, it was reported that the United States was considering replenishing its strategic petroleum reserve when crude oil fell below $80; The U.S. Department of Energy later said the plan to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve does not include a price trigger mechanism and is not likely until after fiscal year 2023.</p><p><b>U.S. ambassador says oil price cap on Russia will be discussed at UN General Assembly</b></p><p>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss an oil price cap on Russia at the United Nations General Assembly. He also said that there were no plans to meet with the Russian side during the UN meeting.</p><p><b>Czech parliament approves energy price cap bill</b></p><p>Czech parliament approves energy price cap bill. Previously, the Czech government had formulated plans to limit energy prices and levy windfall profits taxes nationwide. The measure is expected to cost up to 130 billion Czech kronor (5.3 billion euros), and the state will use the Dividend of state-owned enterprises, the planned windfall tax and other sources to provide funds.</p><p><b>Japan restarted selling U.S. debt in July, and China increased its holdings of U.S. debt for the first time in eight months</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department announced that Japan reduced its holdings of U.S. debt by US $2 billion in July, and China, which has reduced its holdings for seven consecutive months, increased its holdings of U.S. debt by US $2.2 billion. The holdings are temporarily separated from the 12-year low, and overseas investors have sold U.S. stocks for seven consecutive months. Japanese funds have sold U.S. debt for a record nine consecutive months in July, official Japanese data show.</p><p><b>Michigan consumer inflation expectations fell to a one-year low in September, boosted by falling gasoline prices</b></p><p>Although the initial value of consumer confidence at the University of Michigan in September in the United States fell short of expectations, it rose from August, benefiting from falling gasoline prices. Long-term inflation expectations, which the Federal Reserve is highly concerned about, fell to a new low in more than a year, and short-term inflation expectations also fell to a new low in a year.</p><p><b>Russia's central bank cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations, governor says rate cut cycle may be nearing end</b></p><p>The Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, in line with market expectations. The previous value was 8%. Analysts said that as the economy emerges from a severe recession, the threat of inflation will become the focus of the Russian central bank's attention.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese dong hit a record low, the Thai currency hit a new low in 2006, and the \"local currency defense war\" in Asia may be on the verge</b></p><p>The strong dollar is plunging Asian currencies deeper and deeper into the quagmire of devaluation. As the strength of the US dollar puts pressure on Asian currencies, some Asian central banks are preparing to intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p><b>Company news</b></p><p><b>FedEx pre-discloses'ugly 'earnings report with biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years</b></p><p>After the market closed on Thursday, the US logistics giant FedEx pre-disclosed that the data for the first fiscal quarter as of the end of August fell short of expectations, and withdrew its guidance for fiscal year 2023. This news was also quickly generalized as a symbol of American economic recession. Affected by this, FedEx closed down 21.40% on Friday, the biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years. Beya analyst Garrett Holland bluntly said that FedEx's quarterly report was \"ugly\" and reflected a significant deterioration in demand in the global logistics market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analysts shouted that this is the worst data they have seen in nearly two decades of research companies.</p><p><b>Credit Suisse considers renaming investment banking unit to First Boston</b></p><p>According to media reports on Friday, executives of Credit Suisse Group are considering changing the name of its investment banking department to First Boston. Credit Suisse began to acquire shares in First Boston in the late 1970s, and renamed its investment banking department Credit Suisse First Boston in 1988, until the name was removed in 2005 to unify the group brand. In response to this rumor, Credit Suisse responded that it would update the progress of its strategic evaluation when it released its third-quarter financial report.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Initiate internal cybersecurity investigation</b></p><p>Uber announced on Friday that it had contacted law enforcement departments and launched a network security investigation after the company's intranet was suspected to have been hacked. At present, there is no evidence that users' sensitive data has been leaked. According to media reports, hackers took control of an employee's workplace instant messaging software and sent mass messages saying that the company had a data leak. At the same time, hackers seemed to have invaded the company's internal systems and left \"explicit photos\" to show off.</p><p><b>Biography<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBL\">Bhp biliton</a>Will raise bid for OZ Mining</b></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, mining giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHP.AU\">Bhp biliton</a>It will raise its acquisition bid for OZ Mining, a developer of copper, nickel and other minerals, in the near future, after the A $8.4 billion proposal was explicitly rejected. It is reported that the company will submit the latest quotation as soon as this month, but the extent of the increase is still unclear. As of the close of trading this Friday, the market value of OZ Mining just exceeded the purchase price proposed by BHP Billiton in the previous round.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | Bone-piercing cold! The three major stock indexes all fell more than 4% on the week, and FedEx fell 21%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | Bone-piercing cold! The three major stock indexes all fell more than 4% on the week, and FedEx fell 21%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-17 07:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>Bringing a deep \"chill\", the three major stock indexes all fell by more than 4% this week; Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks fell, \"Wei Xiaoli\" all fell by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 20%; FedEx pre-disclosed \"ugly\" financial report, the biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>1. FedEx brought a deep \"chill\", and the three major stock indexes all fell by more than 4% this week.</b></p><p>As U.S. logistics giant FedEx sounded the financial alarm bell, fears of economic recession dragged down the collective weakening of the market. U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.72% to 3873.33 points; The Nasdaq index fell 0.90% to 11448.40 points; The Dow Jones fell 0.45% to 30,822.42 points.</p><p>All three major stock indexes fell more than 4% this week. This week, the Dow fell 4.13%, the S&P 500 fell 4.77%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.48%.</p><p><b>2. Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks fell. \"Wei Xiaoli\" fell more than 6%, and AMTD Digital fell nearly 20%.</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell nearly 4%, and new car-making forces all fell by more than 6%. Among other stocks, AMTD Digital fell nearly 20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Fell more than 7%, bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 5%.</p><p><b>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX30 index fell 1.66%</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, with the German DAX30 index falling 1.66% and falling 2.65% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%, down 1.56% this week; The French CAC40 index fell 1.31%, down 2.17% this week; The Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 1.21%, down 2.16% this week.</p><p><b>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 1.9% this week</b></p><p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for October delivery rose 1 cent to settle at $85.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures prices fell 1.9% this week.</p><p><b>5. Gold futures closed 0.4% higher on Friday and fell 2.6% this week</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday. Gold prices were supported after the September consumer confidence index was released. But the gold price still recorded its fourth weekly decline in five weeks this week. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.20, or 0.4%, to close at $1,683.50 an ounce. Gold futures contracts fell 2.6% this week, their fourth weekly decline in the past five weeks.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Eight House Democrats ask Biden to keep releasing oil reserves</b></p><p>According to market news, eight House Democrats sent a letter to U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday, saying that the government should continue to release strategic petroleum reserves \"at least\" until the end of the year. Congressmen led by Jared Golden said in the letter that persistently high oil prices, coupled with the unlikely end of the Russia-Ukraine war in the near future and the possibility of further disruption of domestic oil production caused by the hurricane season, should be reasons for continuing to release oil reserves. Earlier, it was reported that the United States was considering replenishing its strategic petroleum reserve when crude oil fell below $80; The U.S. Department of Energy later said the plan to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve does not include a price trigger mechanism and is not likely until after fiscal year 2023.</p><p><b>U.S. ambassador says oil price cap on Russia will be discussed at UN General Assembly</b></p><p>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss an oil price cap on Russia at the United Nations General Assembly. He also said that there were no plans to meet with the Russian side during the UN meeting.</p><p><b>Czech parliament approves energy price cap bill</b></p><p>Czech parliament approves energy price cap bill. Previously, the Czech government had formulated plans to limit energy prices and levy windfall profits taxes nationwide. The measure is expected to cost up to 130 billion Czech kronor (5.3 billion euros), and the state will use the Dividend of state-owned enterprises, the planned windfall tax and other sources to provide funds.</p><p><b>Japan restarted selling U.S. debt in July, and China increased its holdings of U.S. debt for the first time in eight months</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department announced that Japan reduced its holdings of U.S. debt by US $2 billion in July, and China, which has reduced its holdings for seven consecutive months, increased its holdings of U.S. debt by US $2.2 billion. The holdings are temporarily separated from the 12-year low, and overseas investors have sold U.S. stocks for seven consecutive months. Japanese funds have sold U.S. debt for a record nine consecutive months in July, official Japanese data show.</p><p><b>Michigan consumer inflation expectations fell to a one-year low in September, boosted by falling gasoline prices</b></p><p>Although the initial value of consumer confidence at the University of Michigan in September in the United States fell short of expectations, it rose from August, benefiting from falling gasoline prices. Long-term inflation expectations, which the Federal Reserve is highly concerned about, fell to a new low in more than a year, and short-term inflation expectations also fell to a new low in a year.</p><p><b>Russia's central bank cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations, governor says rate cut cycle may be nearing end</b></p><p>The Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, in line with market expectations. The previous value was 8%. Analysts said that as the economy emerges from a severe recession, the threat of inflation will become the focus of the Russian central bank's attention.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese dong hit a record low, the Thai currency hit a new low in 2006, and the \"local currency defense war\" in Asia may be on the verge</b></p><p>The strong dollar is plunging Asian currencies deeper and deeper into the quagmire of devaluation. As the strength of the US dollar puts pressure on Asian currencies, some Asian central banks are preparing to intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p><b>Company news</b></p><p><b>FedEx pre-discloses'ugly 'earnings report with biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years</b></p><p>After the market closed on Thursday, the US logistics giant FedEx pre-disclosed that the data for the first fiscal quarter as of the end of August fell short of expectations, and withdrew its guidance for fiscal year 2023. This news was also quickly generalized as a symbol of American economic recession. Affected by this, FedEx closed down 21.40% on Friday, the biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years. Beya analyst Garrett Holland bluntly said that FedEx's quarterly report was \"ugly\" and reflected a significant deterioration in demand in the global logistics market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analysts shouted that this is the worst data they have seen in nearly two decades of research companies.</p><p><b>Credit Suisse considers renaming investment banking unit to First Boston</b></p><p>According to media reports on Friday, executives of Credit Suisse Group are considering changing the name of its investment banking department to First Boston. Credit Suisse began to acquire shares in First Boston in the late 1970s, and renamed its investment banking department Credit Suisse First Boston in 1988, until the name was removed in 2005 to unify the group brand. In response to this rumor, Credit Suisse responded that it would update the progress of its strategic evaluation when it released its third-quarter financial report.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Initiate internal cybersecurity investigation</b></p><p>Uber announced on Friday that it had contacted law enforcement departments and launched a network security investigation after the company's intranet was suspected to have been hacked. At present, there is no evidence that users' sensitive data has been leaked. According to media reports, hackers took control of an employee's workplace instant messaging software and sent mass messages saying that the company had a data leak. At the same time, hackers seemed to have invaded the company's internal systems and left \"explicit photos\" to show off.</p><p><b>Biography<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBL\">Bhp biliton</a>Will raise bid for OZ Mining</b></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, mining giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHP.AU\">Bhp biliton</a>It will raise its acquisition bid for OZ Mining, a developer of copper, nickel and other minerals, in the near future, after the A $8.4 billion proposal was explicitly rejected. It is reported that the company will submit the latest quotation as soon as this month, but the extent of the increase is still unclear. As of the close of trading this Friday, the market value of OZ Mining just exceeded the purchase price proposed by BHP Billiton in the previous round.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东","BK4131":"航空货运与物流",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","PDD":"拼多多","FDX":"联邦快递",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181100698","content_text":"摘要：联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%；热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%；联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报，创近40年最大单日跌幅。海外市场1、联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%随着美国物流巨头联邦快递鸣响财报警钟，对于经济衰退的担忧拖累市场集体走弱。美股周五收跌，标普500指数跌0.72%，报3873.33点；纳斯达克指数跌0.90%，报11448.40点；道琼斯指数跌0.45%，报30822.42点。三大股指本周均下跌超过4%。本周道指下跌4.13%，标普500指数下跌4.77%，纳指下跌5.48%。2、热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%热门中概股下跌，拼多多跌超4%，京东跌近4%，造车新势力均跌超6%。其他个股中，尚乘数科跌近20%，金山云跌超7%，B站、爱奇艺、满帮跌超6%，腾讯音乐、新东方、好未来、斗鱼跌超5%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌 德国DAX30指数跌1.66%欧洲主要股指集体收跌，德国DAX30指数跌1.66%，本周累跌2.65%；英国富时100指数跌0.66%，本周累跌1.56%；法国CAC40指数跌1.31%，本周累跌2.17%；欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.21%，本周累跌2.16%。4、美国WTI原油本周下跌1.9%周五，纽约商品交易所10月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1美分，收于每桶85.11美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货价格下跌1.9%。5、周五黄金期货收高0.4%，本周下跌2.6%黄金期货价格周五收高。在9月消费者信心指数公布后，金价得到支撑。但本周黄金价格仍录得五周内的第四周下跌。纽约商品期货交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格上涨6.20美元，涨幅为0.4%，收于每盎司1683.50美元。本周黄金期货合约下跌2.6%，为过去五周内的第四周下跌。国际宏观八位众议院民主党人要求拜登继续释放石油储备据市场消息，八位众议院民主党人周五致函美国总统拜登，表示政府应继续释放战略石油储备“至少”到年底。Jared Golden牵头的众议员在信中表示，持续的高油价加上俄乌战争不太可能在近期结束、飓风季可能导致国内石油生产进一步受到干扰，应该是继续释放石油储备的理由。此前有消息称，美国考虑在原油跌破80美元时补充战略石油储备；美国能源部后来表示，补充战略石油储备的计划不包括价格触发机制，并且2023财年之后才可能实施。美国大使称将在联合国大会上讨论对俄罗斯设置的油价上限美国大使称将在联合国大会上讨论对俄罗斯设置的油价上限。并表示，没有计划在联合国会议期间与俄罗斯方面进行会晤。捷克议会批准能源价格上限法案捷克议会批准能源价格上限法案。此前，捷克政府已经制定了在全国范围内限制能源价格和征收暴利税的计划。预计这项措施最多将耗资1300亿捷克克朗(合53亿欧元)，国家将使用国有企业的股息、计划中的暴利税等来源来提供资金。7月日本重启抛售美债，中国八个月内首度增持美债美国财政部公布，7月日本减持20亿美元美债，连续减持七个月的中国增持22亿美元美债，持仓暂别十二年低谷，海外投资者连续七个月抛售美股。日本官方数据显示，日本基金7月已连续九个月创纪录长期抛美债。汽油价格下跌助推，美国9月密歇根消费者通胀预期跌至一年新低美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心初值虽不及预期，但较8月有所攀升，这受益于汽油价格下跌。美联储高度关注的长期通胀预期跌至一年多新低，短期通胀预期也降至一年新低。俄罗斯央行降息50基点，符合预期，行长称降息周期可能接近尾声俄罗斯央行周五宣布将基准利率下调50个基点至7.5%，符合市场预期，前值为8%。分析人士称，随着经济摆脱严重衰退，通胀威胁将成为俄央行关注的焦点。越南盾创纪录新低，泰币创2006年新低，亚洲“本币保卫战”或一触即发强势美元正在使亚洲国家货币在贬值的泥潭里越陷越深。由于美元强势导致亚洲国家货币承压，部分亚洲国家央行正在准备出手干预汇市。公司消息联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报 创近40年最大单日跌幅周四盘后，美国物流巨头联邦快递预披露截至8月底的第一财季数据全面不及预期，同时撤回2023财年的指引。这一消息也迅速被泛化为美国经济衰退的象征。受此影响，联邦快递周五收跌21.40%，创近40年来的最大单日跌幅。贝雅分析师Garrett Holland直言联邦快递的一季报“丑陋”，并反映出全球物流市场的需求显著恶化。德意志银行的分析师们则高呼，这是他们研究公司近二十年来看到的最糟糕数据。瑞信集团考虑将投行部门更名为第一波士顿据媒体周五报道，瑞信集团的高管近期正在考虑将投行部门改名为第一波士顿。瑞信在上世纪70年代末开始收购第一波士顿的股票，并在1988年将投行部门改名为瑞信第一波士顿，直到2005年为了统一集团品牌去掉了这个名字。对于该传言，瑞信回应称将在发布三季度财报时更新战略评估的进展。优步启动内部网络安全调查优步公司周五宣布，在公司内网疑似遭到黑客攻击后，已经联系执法部门并启动网络安全调查，目前并没有证据显示用户敏感数据出现泄露。据媒体报道，黑客控制一名员工的职场即时通讯软件，并群发消息称公司出现了数据泄露，同时黑客似乎也入侵了公司的内部系统，并留下“露骨照片”显摆。传必和必拓将提高对OZ矿业的收购报价据知情人士透露，矿业巨头必和必拓将在近期提高对铜、镍等矿产开发商OZ矿业的收购报价，此前84亿澳元的提案遭到明确否决。据悉，公司最快将在本月内提出最新的报价，但目前上浮的程度尚不清楚。截至本周五收盘，OZ矿业的市值刚刚超过必和必拓上一轮提出的收购价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"JD":0.9,"PDD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"FDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932606380,"gmtCreate":1662937301240,"gmtModify":1676537164228,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>🙏🙏🙏🙏","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>🙏🙏🙏🙏","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$🙏🙏🙏🙏","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8dafcc898fe2f18f637becc4124e855a","width":"1125","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932606380","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988905417,"gmtCreate":1666651077939,"gmtModify":1676537782199,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1a29640681bf12be7f1d78807e9cd46","width":"1125","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988905417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916854300,"gmtCreate":1664578678700,"gmtModify":1676537478204,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48b48ff660262cd1392797d60fd39906","width":"1125","height":"2079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916854300","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916852858,"gmtCreate":1664578423774,"gmtModify":1676537478148,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916852858","repostId":"1146232184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146232184","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664542806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146232184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 21:00","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"British crisis experience: the entire pension market was almost destroyed!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146232184","media":"三思期权","summary":"巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After experiencing this week's storm, this short article will be commemorated in the form of notes. I'm really tired this week, and I'm a little sorry when I'm tired. For such a big event, I didn't have foresight, so I missed this black swan transaction.</p><p>What's a metaphor for what happened this week? I feel closest to March 2020. The British interest rate and the British pound market completely collapsed, the entire British pension market almost fell into the street, and the LDI industry in pensions collapsed overnight. If the whole pension market collapses, it won't be March, it will be 2008. Good thing the central bank came out to rescue the market..</p><p>I'm so tired these two days that I don't want to code too many words. What's probably happening in the market? For basic knowledge, you can read the article Degg _ GlobalMacroFin. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experience.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember that these two people almost destroyed the huge pension market by themselves. Of course, they can't be blamed for the leverage of the LDI industry. However, the introduction of unrestrained tax reduction policy without experience is the fuse that almost caused the sudden death of the pension market.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that the silly tax cuts caused interest rates to soar sharply. The sharp surge in interest rates has led to huge short-term losses in the Interest rate swap used by many LDI funds used by pensions to hedge against interest rate and inflation risks. The huge loss itself is not so terrible. The most terrible thing is the short-term continuous huge loss, which causes the margin to be used up quickly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the UK 30-year interest rate skyrocketed by 230 basis points. How much impact does this skyrocketing speed have on these LDI funds holding interest rate swaps? We can make a preliminary estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>For a pension with a scale of 1 billion, the DV01 of interest rate swaps in the LDI fund held (the profit and loss of interest rate swaps caused by a change in interest rate of one basis point) is about 2 million. In other words, in the past two months, the 30-year interest rate has changed by 230 basis points. The loss caused by interest rate swaps is 230 * 2m = 460m. In other words, in the past 2 months, the loss caused by interest rate swaps is nearly half of this pension asset!!!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not a real loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge the pension liability side, the interest rate swaps lose money, and the value of the liability side also drops. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedging transaction and will not cause any losses.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But, but, but, in the last example, in such a short period of time, we lost 400 million yuan. In order to pay the margin, those LDI funds first sold the British Treasury Bond with the best liquidity to raise funds to supplement the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Friends who know a little about over-the-counter trading will ask, why don't these funds use these British Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This involves another topic, that is, the interest rate swap market has undergone a big change in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have changed from simple over-the-counter transactions to central clearing over-the-counter transactions. The clearing house is LCH, and now only cash can be used as margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Well, here comes the point. This is also the most important step of the death spiral. The interest rate of the British Treasury Bond is actually similar to the interest rate of the British interest rate swap. Because the interest rate swap lost money, the fund manager wanted to sell Treasury Bond to make up the margin. A large number of selling Treasury Bond has led to an increase in interest rates in Treasury Bond, while the rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond has led to an increase in interest rate swaps. The rise in interest rate swaps has led fund managers to sell more Treasury Bond to make up their margin....</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The financial market is not afraid of rising or falling. When the price is low, people will naturally buy it, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, at the end of August, pension assets totaled about 1.5 trillion pounds. In other words, in the past two months, the initial estimate of the margin caused by the loss of the LDI strategy of the entire pension is 690 billion. My friend's LDI desk paid a deposit of 1.2 billion last Friday! Yes, a day, a desk is 1.2 billion!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>In the process of selling, Treasury Bond sold out and had to sell other assets. The first is stocks with good liquidity. This caused the stock to fall accordingly, and it fell indiscriminately. Because in this process, the pension can only be sold with eyes closed due to the requirement for the speed of replenishing the security deposit (usually T+0).</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>When the stock falls, it will fall, and when it is cheap, someone will naturally buy it. But another fatal point in the whole process is that these pensions have greatly increased their allocation of illiquid assets in the past 10 years, such as real estate and private equity funds. These aren't something you can redeem if you want. This creates a huge problem, liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If you can't sell it, I'm sorry if you can't pay the margin, those interest rate swap positions will explode. Investment banking trading desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This causes the interest rate of interest rate swaps to continue to rise! Thus dragging down other pensions with good liquidity.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the entire interest rate swap market had been paralyzed, and most market makers had left the market. In the past, the bid-ask spread of one-year UK interest rate swaps was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but at that time it had risen to 9-10bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing we can do is wait for the Bank of England to rescue the market. Fortunately, the central bank made a decisive move and offered QE to suppress the rising trend of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral is broken. Pull quite a few pensions and those LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not all of them saw the dawn. Several large British asset management LDI funds exploded. Just look at their stock prices. I won't publish their names, just keep some morality.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst are those pensions that fall on the eve of dawn, and the holders who live on them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the bailout was two days later, the entire pension industry would be gg.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this huge earthquake in the LDI industry, it is difficult for even surviving funds to continue to survive. The biggest shortcoming of the business model of this industry has been exposed. And without leverage, this industry can't survive. Let's just say that this industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the British Treasury Bond rose by 40% in one day in 50 years! Who said Treasury Bond is rising slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1607924588218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>British crisis experience: the entire pension market was almost destroyed!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBritish crisis experience: the entire pension market was almost destroyed!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">三思期权</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After experiencing this week's storm, this short article will be commemorated in the form of notes. I'm really tired this week, and I'm a little sorry when I'm tired. For such a big event, I didn't have foresight, so I missed this black swan transaction.</p><p>What's a metaphor for what happened this week? I feel closest to March 2020. The British interest rate and the British pound market completely collapsed, the entire British pension market almost fell into the street, and the LDI industry in pensions collapsed overnight. If the whole pension market collapses, it won't be March, it will be 2008. Good thing the central bank came out to rescue the market..</p><p>I'm so tired these two days that I don't want to code too many words. What's probably happening in the market? For basic knowledge, you can read the article Degg _ GlobalMacroFin. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experience.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember that these two people almost destroyed the huge pension market by themselves. Of course, they can't be blamed for the leverage of the LDI industry. However, the introduction of unrestrained tax reduction policy without experience is the fuse that almost caused the sudden death of the pension market.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that the silly tax cuts caused interest rates to soar sharply. The sharp surge in interest rates has led to huge short-term losses in the Interest rate swap used by many LDI funds used by pensions to hedge against interest rate and inflation risks. The huge loss itself is not so terrible. The most terrible thing is the short-term continuous huge loss, which causes the margin to be used up quickly.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the UK 30-year interest rate skyrocketed by 230 basis points. How much impact does this skyrocketing speed have on these LDI funds holding interest rate swaps? We can make a preliminary estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>For a pension with a scale of 1 billion, the DV01 of interest rate swaps in the LDI fund held (the profit and loss of interest rate swaps caused by a change in interest rate of one basis point) is about 2 million. In other words, in the past two months, the 30-year interest rate has changed by 230 basis points. The loss caused by interest rate swaps is 230 * 2m = 460m. In other words, in the past 2 months, the loss caused by interest rate swaps is nearly half of this pension asset!!!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not a real loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge the pension liability side, the interest rate swaps lose money, and the value of the liability side also drops. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedging transaction and will not cause any losses.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But, but, but, in the last example, in such a short period of time, we lost 400 million yuan. In order to pay the margin, those LDI funds first sold the British Treasury Bond with the best liquidity to raise funds to supplement the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Friends who know a little about over-the-counter trading will ask, why don't these funds use these British Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This involves another topic, that is, the interest rate swap market has undergone a big change in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have changed from simple over-the-counter transactions to central clearing over-the-counter transactions. The clearing house is LCH, and now only cash can be used as margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Well, here comes the point. This is also the most important step of the death spiral. The interest rate of the British Treasury Bond is actually similar to the interest rate of the British interest rate swap. Because the interest rate swap lost money, the fund manager wanted to sell Treasury Bond to make up the margin. A large number of selling Treasury Bond has led to an increase in interest rates in Treasury Bond, while the rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond has led to an increase in interest rate swaps. The rise in interest rate swaps has led fund managers to sell more Treasury Bond to make up their margin....</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The financial market is not afraid of rising or falling. When the price is low, people will naturally buy it, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, at the end of August, pension assets totaled about 1.5 trillion pounds. In other words, in the past two months, the initial estimate of the margin caused by the loss of the LDI strategy of the entire pension is 690 billion. My friend's LDI desk paid a deposit of 1.2 billion last Friday! Yes, a day, a desk is 1.2 billion!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>In the process of selling, Treasury Bond sold out and had to sell other assets. The first is stocks with good liquidity. This caused the stock to fall accordingly, and it fell indiscriminately. Because in this process, the pension can only be sold with eyes closed due to the requirement for the speed of replenishing the security deposit (usually T+0).</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>When the stock falls, it will fall, and when it is cheap, someone will naturally buy it. But another fatal point in the whole process is that these pensions have greatly increased their allocation of illiquid assets in the past 10 years, such as real estate and private equity funds. These aren't something you can redeem if you want. This creates a huge problem, liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If you can't sell it, I'm sorry if you can't pay the margin, those interest rate swap positions will explode. Investment banking trading desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This causes the interest rate of interest rate swaps to continue to rise! Thus dragging down other pensions with good liquidity.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the entire interest rate swap market had been paralyzed, and most market makers had left the market. In the past, the bid-ask spread of one-year UK interest rate swaps was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but at that time it had risen to 9-10bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing we can do is wait for the Bank of England to rescue the market. Fortunately, the central bank made a decisive move and offered QE to suppress the rising trend of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral is broken. Pull quite a few pensions and those LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not all of them saw the dawn. Several large British asset management LDI funds exploded. Just look at their stock prices. I won't publish their names, just keep some morality.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst are those pensions that fall on the eve of dawn, and the holders who live on them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the bailout was two days later, the entire pension industry would be gg.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this huge earthquake in the LDI industry, it is difficult for even surviving funds to continue to survive. The biggest shortcoming of the business model of this industry has been exposed. And without leverage, this industry can't survive. Let's just say that this industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the British Treasury Bond rose by 40% in one day in 50 years! Who said Treasury Bond is rising slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA\">三思期权</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28e326edc19611f4a02f9a0ebb66bf9","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146232184","content_text":"亲历了这周的风暴，这篇小短文就以手记的形式纪念一下。这周实在累的不行了，心累之余还有点遗憾，这么大的事件，竟然没有先知先觉，也就错过了这次的黑天鹅交易。怎么比喻这周发生的事情呢？我感觉最接近2020年三月。英国利率以及英镑市场完全垮掉，英国整个养老金市场差点扑街，而养老金里的LDI行业一夜之间就垮了。要是整个养老金市场垮了，就不是3月份了，那就是08年。好在央行出来救市了。。。这两天实在太心累，不想码太多字。市场上大概发生了什么，基础知识可以看看Degg_GlobalMacroFin这篇。这篇里我就重点讲讲我的一线经历。记住这俩人，几乎凭借了一己之力把巨大的养老金市场毁灭。当然，LDI这个行业的杠杆不能怪他们。 但是没有经验的情况下推出毫无节制的减税政策，是差点让养老金市场突然死亡的导火索。最简单的解释就是， 傻X的减税政策导致利率大幅飙升。 利率大幅飙升导致不少养老金用来对冲利率以及通胀风险的LDI基金里使用的利率（Interest rate swap）短期出现巨额亏损。 巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏，导致保证金很快就用光了。从8月底到9月底， 英国30年期利率暴涨了230个基点。这个暴涨的速度对这些持有利率互换的LDI基金有多大影响？ 我们可以初略的估算一下。一个规模10亿的养老金，持有的LDI基金里利率互换的DV01 (一个基点利率变动导致利率互换产生的损益） 是大概两百万。也就是说，过去两个月，因为30年期利率变动了230个基点。利率互换产生的损失就是230* 2m = 460m。 也就是说， 过去2个月，利率互换产生的亏损是这个养老金资产的接近一半！！！这个损失，不是真的亏损。因为这些利率互换是拿来对冲养老金负债端的，利率互换亏了，负债端的价值也下降了。理论上这个是个多空对冲交易不会产生什么损失。但是，但是， 但是,在上个例子里，这么短时间里，亏损了4个亿，那些LDI基金为了交保证金，首先卖出手中流动性最好的英国国债来筹集资金补保证金。懂一点场外交易的朋友会问，为啥这些基金不拿这些英国国债当保证金？ 因为不少场外交易是可以直接用国债当保证金的。 这就要牵扯到另一个话题，就是过去10年里利率互换市场经历了一场大变革。多数利率互换已经从单纯的场外交易变成了中央清算的场外交易。清算所是LCH,现在只能用现金做保证金。那么好了，重点来了， 这也就是死亡螺旋最重要的一步。英国国债利率，和英国利率互换的利率其实是差不多的东西。 因为利率互换亏钱了，基金经理要卖国债补保证金。 大量的抛售国债，导致国债利率上升， 而国债利率上升导致利率互换的利率上升，利率互换上升导致基金经理要卖更多的国债补保证金。。。。金融市场不怕涨，不怕跌，价格低了自然有人买，但是市场最怕这种死亡螺旋。这个养老金市场有多大呢？ 根据PPF的估计，8月底，养老金资产一共大约一共1.5万亿英镑。也就是说，过去两个月，整个养老金的LDI策略亏损导致的保证金的初略估算在6900亿 。 我朋友的LDI desk在上周五一天补交的保证金就是12个亿！对， 一天，一个desk 12亿！在抛售的过程中， 国债卖完了， 只有卖其他资产。 首先就是流动性好的股票。 这就导致股票也跟着跌，而且是无差别的跌。因为这个过程中，养老金由于补保证金的速度有要求(一般是T+0），所以只能闭着眼卖。股票跌就跌了，便宜了自然有人买。 但整个环节另一个要命的点是， 这些养老金过去10年里大幅度增加配置了没有流动性的资产， 比如地产，比如私募股权基金。 这些不是你想赎回就赎回的。 这就产生了一个巨大的问题，流动性错配！卖不了，抱歉交不上保证金那些利率互换的仓位就爆了。 投行交易台就必须要在市场上卖掉这些利率互换头寸。这就导致利率互换的利率继续上升！从而再拖垮其他流动性还不错的养老金。当时整个利率互换市场市场已经瘫痪， 多数做市商已经离场。 以前一年期的英国利率互换的买卖差价也就0.1-0.2 bps,当时已经上升到9-10bps!出现了死亡螺旋之后，唯一能够做的就是等英国央行救市。 好在央行果断出手，祭出QE压住国债利率上升的势头。死亡螺旋被打破。把不少养老金以及那些LDI基金从死亡的边缘拉回来。但不是所有的人都看到了黎明。 几家大的英国资管的LDI基金就爆了。 看看他们的股价就知道。。。。 我就不公布他们的名字了，留点口德。最惨的是那些倒在黎明前夜的养老金，以及靠这些养老金生活的持有人。如果救市再晚两天，整个养老金行业就gg了。而LDI这个行业随着这次巨震，即使活下来的基金也很难继续生存下去， 这个行业的商业模式的最大缺点已经被暴露了。而如果不用杠杆， 这个行业也生存不下去。只能说这个行业在不久的将来很可能会消失。打破了死亡螺旋，50年英国国债一天就上涨了40%！ 谁说国债涨的慢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916858935,"gmtCreate":1664578154527,"gmtModify":1676537478082,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916858935","repostId":"2271377796","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916329201,"gmtCreate":1664514112903,"gmtModify":1676537469765,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916329201","repostId":"1143870144","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143870144","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664502256,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143870144?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 09:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"One day's net worth shrank by tens of billions, Li Ka-shing recovered 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143870144","media":"野马财经","summary":"身价缩水百亿后，李嘉诚家族旗下长实集团再次依靠“囤地”获利。由于英镑和欧元大幅贬值，重仓欧洲市场的李嘉诚家族企业遭受重创。9月23日，英国政府推出50年来最大减税政策，结果导致英国遭遇股债汇“三杀”，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>After its net worth shrank by tens of billions, Cheung Kong Group, a subsidiary of the Li Ka-shing family, once again relied on \"hoarding land\" to make profits.</b>Due to the sharp depreciation of the pound and euro, Li Ka-shing's family business, which has a heavy position in the European market, suffered heavy losses.</p><p>On September 23rd, the British government launched the biggest tax reduction policy in 50 years. As a result, the UK suffered a \"three kills\" of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. The pound once fell below the 1.04 mark against the US dollar, and there was a \"selling tide\" in the bond market, and the stock market plummeted.</p><p>The Bloomberg Billionaires Real-time Index shows that,<b>On September 26, Li Ka-shing had a net worth of US $26.7 billion (about 191.241 billion yuan), while the previous day, Li Ka-shing's net worth was US $28.1 billion (about 201.176 billion yuan), and 9.935 billion yuan evaporated in one day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ce18619140bf79d1941bdbdf4af7cb\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group Announcement</p><p>After experiencing a sharp decline in value,<b>On September 28, Cheung Kong Group (1113. HK) announced that it would sell property projects in Hong Kong, China, to Singapore financial institution Sino-Suisse for HK $20.766 billion (approximately 19.05 billion yuan), including the unsold portion of the luxury residential project at 21 Porao Road.</b></p><p>On the day of the transaction, the buyer had paid a deposit of HK $2.077 billion, and then paid a total of five partial payments to the seller every six months. The first two payments were HK $1.038 billion each and the last three payments were HK $2.077 billion each. In addition, the buyer is required to pay the balance upon completion of the transaction.</p><p>Cheung Kong Group said that the sale of the project will enable the company to realize its investment in the development project, and the buyer's loan will help complete the transaction.<b>The company expects the proceeds from the sale to be approximately HK $6.3 billion (approximately 5.779 billion yuan)</b>The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes of the Group.</p><p><b>\"Hoarding land\" for 11 years, a profit of 5.779 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to the data, 21 BORRETT ROAD is one of the well-known super luxury residential projects in Hong Kong, China. This transaction includes 152 residential units, 242 residential parking spaces and 31 motorcycle parking spaces.</p><p><b>In June 2011, Cheung Kong Group purchased the Bolao Road land for HK $11.65 billion, with a floor price of HK $26,763 per foot, setting a record for the second highest price in Hong Kong, China that year.</b></p><p>The land is located in the mansion area of West Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, China, with an area of about 10,500 square meters and a buildable floor area of about 40,400 square meters. It was once called \"first-class beautiful land\" by Li Zeju, chairman of Cheung Kong Group.</p><p>Since it was bought by Cheung Kong Group in 2011, it took 10 years for the project to officially go on the current floor market. Compared with the land price 10 years ago, the current average floor price has increased by more than 10 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2b1e5d766054061885687df7fd0028\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Public Account, No. 21, Cheung Shibo Lao Road</p><p><b>According to public reports, the latest transaction at No.21 Bolao Road was in June this year, with 2 sets sold, totaling nearly 400 million Hong Kong dollars (about 367 million yuan).</b></p><p>Among them, a set of Room 1, 20th Floor, Phase 1, No.21 Bolao Road Community, which was sold, was priced at 270 million yuan, with an interior area of about 273.6 square meters. According to the transaction price, its unit price reached 986,900 yuan/square meter.</p><p>Some insiders believe that the long development mode of \"hoarding land\" is a major feature of Li Ka-shing's Changshi Department, which also makes its company make a lot of profits by using this method.</p><p>Talking about Li Ka-shing's land hoarding for profit has existed for a long time. As early as 10 years ago, \"Economic Observer Network\" reported that Hutchison Whampoa, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, was included in Shanghai's official land hoarding list.</p><p>Regarding the land hoarding behavior of Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Department,<b>\"China Times\" once reported that over the years, more than ten projects of \"Changhe Department\" in nearly ten cities across the country have adopted \"snail-style\" development methods, extending the land development cycle from 6 years to more than 10 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce126a777041428467fdc98a4c7691ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with external doubts,<b>Cheung Kong Group has publicly responded that Cheung Kong's domestic real estate projects have been carried out in accordance with laws and regulations and all government procedures, and the development is slow, which is actually misunderstood, and the sale of projects is also a normal business behavior of real estate developers.</b></p><p>Today, Li Ka-shing has once again achieved a profit of HK $6.3 billion from \"hoarding land\". In the eyes of the industry, Cheung Kong can efficiently lock in considerable profits by selling all the units yet to be launched in Bolaodao to a single buyer in a few days.</p><p>The buyer of this transaction is Huarui Capital, which was founded in Singapore in 2017 and also obtained the capital market service license issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>For buyers, buying a top-class luxury house located in the rarest location in Hong Kong, China, looking around the market today, it is difficult to find a comparable high-quality property with a high return on investment value. When Hong Kong is fully opened and closed, the appreciation potential of the project should be very ideal.</p><p><b>Li Ka-shing's buying and selling</b></p><p>Since 2013, Li Ka-shing, who has been dubbed by the industry as being good at \"hoarding land\", has started to move assets and made frequent profits by selling asset projects.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, including the sale of Hong Kong Central Center and Watsons equity, the amount of assets sold by Li Ka-shing has exceeded at least 250 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time of the sale, Li Ka-shing never stopped new investments.<b>In 2021, Cheung Kong Group will spend HK $17.38 billion to purchase 4 pieces of land in Hong Kong, China through different channels, increasing the floor area of approximately 154,600 square meters for development.</b></p><p>In May of this year, Li Ka-shing reappeared in the mainland land auction market after ten years since 2012. In the auction of Baiyun Airport Avenue in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, Hutchison Whampoa, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, also participated in the bidding, but did not win the bid in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5cfa9374570c5bca3cb35fc02610b27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to a list published earlier, the market value of properties still held by Cheung Kong Group in mainland China reached 126.16 billion yuan, distributed in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Dalian and other places, among which the market value of properties available for development was 31.573 billion yuan.</p><p><b>In fact, since 2020, Cheung Kong Group has sold overseas businesses and assets many times, involving energy, communications, real estate, electricity, aircraft leasing and other sectors, including Husky, which Li Ka-shing called \"one of the most successful investments in his life\". Sky energy.</b></p><p>In March 2022, Cheung Kong Group announced the sale of its office building in London, England, for 729 million pounds (about 6 billion yuan). Cheung Kong's expected income from the sale is approximately 108 million pounds (approximately 896 million yuan).</p><p>In addition, in July this year, Cheung Kong Group was close to completing the 15 billion pound (approximately 116.813 billion yuan) sale of British Electric Power Company, but due to the last-minute price increase, the entire sale plan ultimately fell through.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8746e7839869ecee34dfb2878cef5ca3\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group financial report</p><p>The reason for this operation can be seen by analyzing its annual report data. The annual report shows that in 2021, the total revenue of Cheung Kong Group will be 62.094 billion Hong Kong dollars, of which property is the main revenue, property sales will reach 37.76 billion Hong Kong dollars, property leasing will reach 6.543 billion Hong Kong dollars, and hotel and serviced suite business will reach 2.691 billion Hong Kong dollars. Property and project management is HK $816 million, and British pub business is HK $14.284 billion.</p><p>Regardless of property sales or property leasing, Hong Kong and the Mainland account for a larger proportion.<b>In the property sales business, the sales of properties in Hong Kong, China were HK $15.724 billion, the sales of properties in the Mainland were HK $21.722 billion, and the sales of overseas properties were HK $352 million. In terms of property leasing, Hong Kong, China was HK $4.352 billion, the mainland was HK $571 million, and overseas was HK $738 million.</b></p><p>As the richest man in Hong Kong, Li Ka-shing's business actions have always attracted market attention. Since the beginning of this year, Li Ka-shing has made frequent moves, and some voices pointed out that \"Li Ka-shing is fleeing Britain\" and \"Li Ka-shing is back\".</p><p>Li Zeju responded that selling buildings is a daily business and a business, and there is no divestment. He said that the mainland and Hong Kong are the hometown of the group, and there are emotional factors, but they will still pay attention to the return on investment.</p><p><b>Is there still a chance for Evergrande Center to \"pick up the leak\"?</b></p><p>The biggest trick to \"hoard land\" to make a profit is to \"pick up leaks\" by bargain hunting. In July this year, Li Ka-shing tried to buy the bottom of China Evergrande Center.</p><p><b>On July 28, China Evergrande (3333. HK) sold China Evergrande Center for the second time in the form of competitive bidding, and the price dropped from HK $10.5 billion to HK $9 billion.</b></p><p>Prior to this, in August 2021, it was reported in the market that Evergrande offered HK $15.6 billion to seek the takeover of Hong Kong Evergrande Center. After subsequently contacting Yuexiu Real Estate, the price dropped to HK $10.5 billion, but the transaction did not take place in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b27d545b805efd24953789514ada0df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Canned Gallery</p><p>China Evergrande Center is located in the middle of downtown Wanchai, Hong Kong, China. It is a 26-storey Grade A office building with a total construction area of about 32,100 square meters. Its predecessor was the American Metrohm Building.</p><p>In 2015, China Evergrande spent HK $12.5 billion to purchase it from Chinese Real Estate (0127. HK), setting a record for commercial buildings in Hong Kong, China.</p><p>At the end of July 2022, after the China Evergrande Center was re-sold, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group submitted a tender. At that time, the property was valued at about HK $9 billion. From the perspective of the industry, Cheung Kong Group intends to \"pick up the leakage\" by bargain hunting.</p><p><b>However, on September 13, according to public documents in Hong Kong, China, China Evergrande Center has recently been taken over by a receiver appointed by China CITIC Bank International, a subsidiary of creditor China CITIC Bank.</b></p><p>According to media analysis quoted by industry insiders, China Evergrande has defaulted on default, failed to repay the money on time, and tried to sell the building assets twice, but no one took over, so the lender finally decided to take over the assets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24cfd494a3a164f571329d27478f9c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the eve of the National Day, there was market news that the China Evergrande Center Building was being sold by Savills as the exclusive agent, and the bid closing date was October 31, 2022.</p><p><b>According to market estimates, the current valuation of the property is more than HK $8 billion, a discount of about 40% to Evergrande's purchase of HK $12.5 billion. The property has attracted inquiries and visits from local developers, funds and mainland buyers in Hong Kong.</b></p><p>Savills said that referring to the Murray Road project won by Henderson Land Development in 2017, the price per square foot is about HK $50,000, and the total price is about HK $32.38 billion; Another site at No. 3 Central Harbourfront, which was won in 2021, was sold at a price of approximately HK $31,000 per square foot, with a total price of HK $50.8 billion.</p><p>From the failure of two sales to the release now, Evergrande Center has already changed from a commercial landmark that Evergrande Group was proud of to a replacement chip.<b>Today, Li Ka-shing, who is good at \"hoarding land\" to make profits, still has the opportunity to buy bottoms.</b></p><p>In this regard, Feng Lun, a former real estate tycoon, said: In the mainland and Hong Kong, China, although Li Ka-shing has done many real estate projects in a down-to-earth manner, they are basically ordinary houses. He doesn't want to do a good job in this industry like Vanke, so he doesn't receive many particularly good reputations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589532854679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One day's net worth shrank by tens of billions, Li Ka-shing recovered 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne day's net worth shrank by tens of billions, Li Ka-shing recovered 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">野马财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>After its net worth shrank by tens of billions, Cheung Kong Group, a subsidiary of the Li Ka-shing family, once again relied on \"hoarding land\" to make profits.</b>Due to the sharp depreciation of the pound and euro, Li Ka-shing's family business, which has a heavy position in the European market, suffered heavy losses.</p><p>On September 23rd, the British government launched the biggest tax reduction policy in 50 years. As a result, the UK suffered a \"three kills\" of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. The pound once fell below the 1.04 mark against the US dollar, and there was a \"selling tide\" in the bond market, and the stock market plummeted.</p><p>The Bloomberg Billionaires Real-time Index shows that,<b>On September 26, Li Ka-shing had a net worth of US $26.7 billion (about 191.241 billion yuan), while the previous day, Li Ka-shing's net worth was US $28.1 billion (about 201.176 billion yuan), and 9.935 billion yuan evaporated in one day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ce18619140bf79d1941bdbdf4af7cb\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group Announcement</p><p>After experiencing a sharp decline in value,<b>On September 28, Cheung Kong Group (1113. HK) announced that it would sell property projects in Hong Kong, China, to Singapore financial institution Sino-Suisse for HK $20.766 billion (approximately 19.05 billion yuan), including the unsold portion of the luxury residential project at 21 Porao Road.</b></p><p>On the day of the transaction, the buyer had paid a deposit of HK $2.077 billion, and then paid a total of five partial payments to the seller every six months. The first two payments were HK $1.038 billion each and the last three payments were HK $2.077 billion each. In addition, the buyer is required to pay the balance upon completion of the transaction.</p><p>Cheung Kong Group said that the sale of the project will enable the company to realize its investment in the development project, and the buyer's loan will help complete the transaction.<b>The company expects the proceeds from the sale to be approximately HK $6.3 billion (approximately 5.779 billion yuan)</b>The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes of the Group.</p><p><b>\"Hoarding land\" for 11 years, a profit of 5.779 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to the data, 21 BORRETT ROAD is one of the well-known super luxury residential projects in Hong Kong, China. This transaction includes 152 residential units, 242 residential parking spaces and 31 motorcycle parking spaces.</p><p><b>In June 2011, Cheung Kong Group purchased the Bolao Road land for HK $11.65 billion, with a floor price of HK $26,763 per foot, setting a record for the second highest price in Hong Kong, China that year.</b></p><p>The land is located in the mansion area of West Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, China, with an area of about 10,500 square meters and a buildable floor area of about 40,400 square meters. It was once called \"first-class beautiful land\" by Li Zeju, chairman of Cheung Kong Group.</p><p>Since it was bought by Cheung Kong Group in 2011, it took 10 years for the project to officially go on the current floor market. Compared with the land price 10 years ago, the current average floor price has increased by more than 10 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2b1e5d766054061885687df7fd0028\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Public Account, No. 21, Cheung Shibo Lao Road</p><p><b>According to public reports, the latest transaction at No.21 Bolao Road was in June this year, with 2 sets sold, totaling nearly 400 million Hong Kong dollars (about 367 million yuan).</b></p><p>Among them, a set of Room 1, 20th Floor, Phase 1, No.21 Bolao Road Community, which was sold, was priced at 270 million yuan, with an interior area of about 273.6 square meters. According to the transaction price, its unit price reached 986,900 yuan/square meter.</p><p>Some insiders believe that the long development mode of \"hoarding land\" is a major feature of Li Ka-shing's Changshi Department, which also makes its company make a lot of profits by using this method.</p><p>Talking about Li Ka-shing's land hoarding for profit has existed for a long time. As early as 10 years ago, \"Economic Observer Network\" reported that Hutchison Whampoa, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, was included in Shanghai's official land hoarding list.</p><p>Regarding the land hoarding behavior of Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Department,<b>\"China Times\" once reported that over the years, more than ten projects of \"Changhe Department\" in nearly ten cities across the country have adopted \"snail-style\" development methods, extending the land development cycle from 6 years to more than 10 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce126a777041428467fdc98a4c7691ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with external doubts,<b>Cheung Kong Group has publicly responded that Cheung Kong's domestic real estate projects have been carried out in accordance with laws and regulations and all government procedures, and the development is slow, which is actually misunderstood, and the sale of projects is also a normal business behavior of real estate developers.</b></p><p>Today, Li Ka-shing has once again achieved a profit of HK $6.3 billion from \"hoarding land\". In the eyes of the industry, Cheung Kong can efficiently lock in considerable profits by selling all the units yet to be launched in Bolaodao to a single buyer in a few days.</p><p>The buyer of this transaction is Huarui Capital, which was founded in Singapore in 2017 and also obtained the capital market service license issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>For buyers, buying a top-class luxury house located in the rarest location in Hong Kong, China, looking around the market today, it is difficult to find a comparable high-quality property with a high return on investment value. When Hong Kong is fully opened and closed, the appreciation potential of the project should be very ideal.</p><p><b>Li Ka-shing's buying and selling</b></p><p>Since 2013, Li Ka-shing, who has been dubbed by the industry as being good at \"hoarding land\", has started to move assets and made frequent profits by selling asset projects.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, including the sale of Hong Kong Central Center and Watsons equity, the amount of assets sold by Li Ka-shing has exceeded at least 250 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time of the sale, Li Ka-shing never stopped new investments.<b>In 2021, Cheung Kong Group will spend HK $17.38 billion to purchase 4 pieces of land in Hong Kong, China through different channels, increasing the floor area of approximately 154,600 square meters for development.</b></p><p>In May of this year, Li Ka-shing reappeared in the mainland land auction market after ten years since 2012. In the auction of Baiyun Airport Avenue in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, Hutchison Whampoa, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, also participated in the bidding, but did not win the bid in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5cfa9374570c5bca3cb35fc02610b27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to a list published earlier, the market value of properties still held by Cheung Kong Group in mainland China reached 126.16 billion yuan, distributed in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Dalian and other places, among which the market value of properties available for development was 31.573 billion yuan.</p><p><b>In fact, since 2020, Cheung Kong Group has sold overseas businesses and assets many times, involving energy, communications, real estate, electricity, aircraft leasing and other sectors, including Husky, which Li Ka-shing called \"one of the most successful investments in his life\". Sky energy.</b></p><p>In March 2022, Cheung Kong Group announced the sale of its office building in London, England, for 729 million pounds (about 6 billion yuan). Cheung Kong's expected income from the sale is approximately 108 million pounds (approximately 896 million yuan).</p><p>In addition, in July this year, Cheung Kong Group was close to completing the 15 billion pound (approximately 116.813 billion yuan) sale of British Electric Power Company, but due to the last-minute price increase, the entire sale plan ultimately fell through.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8746e7839869ecee34dfb2878cef5ca3\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group financial report</p><p>The reason for this operation can be seen by analyzing its annual report data. The annual report shows that in 2021, the total revenue of Cheung Kong Group will be 62.094 billion Hong Kong dollars, of which property is the main revenue, property sales will reach 37.76 billion Hong Kong dollars, property leasing will reach 6.543 billion Hong Kong dollars, and hotel and serviced suite business will reach 2.691 billion Hong Kong dollars. Property and project management is HK $816 million, and British pub business is HK $14.284 billion.</p><p>Regardless of property sales or property leasing, Hong Kong and the Mainland account for a larger proportion.<b>In the property sales business, the sales of properties in Hong Kong, China were HK $15.724 billion, the sales of properties in the Mainland were HK $21.722 billion, and the sales of overseas properties were HK $352 million. In terms of property leasing, Hong Kong, China was HK $4.352 billion, the mainland was HK $571 million, and overseas was HK $738 million.</b></p><p>As the richest man in Hong Kong, Li Ka-shing's business actions have always attracted market attention. Since the beginning of this year, Li Ka-shing has made frequent moves, and some voices pointed out that \"Li Ka-shing is fleeing Britain\" and \"Li Ka-shing is back\".</p><p>Li Zeju responded that selling buildings is a daily business and a business, and there is no divestment. He said that the mainland and Hong Kong are the hometown of the group, and there are emotional factors, but they will still pay attention to the return on investment.</p><p><b>Is there still a chance for Evergrande Center to \"pick up the leak\"?</b></p><p>The biggest trick to \"hoard land\" to make a profit is to \"pick up leaks\" by bargain hunting. In July this year, Li Ka-shing tried to buy the bottom of China Evergrande Center.</p><p><b>On July 28, China Evergrande (3333. HK) sold China Evergrande Center for the second time in the form of competitive bidding, and the price dropped from HK $10.5 billion to HK $9 billion.</b></p><p>Prior to this, in August 2021, it was reported in the market that Evergrande offered HK $15.6 billion to seek the takeover of Hong Kong Evergrande Center. After subsequently contacting Yuexiu Real Estate, the price dropped to HK $10.5 billion, but the transaction did not take place in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b27d545b805efd24953789514ada0df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Canned Gallery</p><p>China Evergrande Center is located in the middle of downtown Wanchai, Hong Kong, China. It is a 26-storey Grade A office building with a total construction area of about 32,100 square meters. Its predecessor was the American Metrohm Building.</p><p>In 2015, China Evergrande spent HK $12.5 billion to purchase it from Chinese Real Estate (0127. HK), setting a record for commercial buildings in Hong Kong, China.</p><p>At the end of July 2022, after the China Evergrande Center was re-sold, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group submitted a tender. At that time, the property was valued at about HK $9 billion. From the perspective of the industry, Cheung Kong Group intends to \"pick up the leakage\" by bargain hunting.</p><p><b>However, on September 13, according to public documents in Hong Kong, China, China Evergrande Center has recently been taken over by a receiver appointed by China CITIC Bank International, a subsidiary of creditor China CITIC Bank.</b></p><p>According to media analysis quoted by industry insiders, China Evergrande has defaulted on default, failed to repay the money on time, and tried to sell the building assets twice, but no one took over, so the lender finally decided to take over the assets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24cfd494a3a164f571329d27478f9c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the eve of the National Day, there was market news that the China Evergrande Center Building was being sold by Savills as the exclusive agent, and the bid closing date was October 31, 2022.</p><p><b>According to market estimates, the current valuation of the property is more than HK $8 billion, a discount of about 40% to Evergrande's purchase of HK $12.5 billion. The property has attracted inquiries and visits from local developers, funds and mainland buyers in Hong Kong.</b></p><p>Savills said that referring to the Murray Road project won by Henderson Land Development in 2017, the price per square foot is about HK $50,000, and the total price is about HK $32.38 billion; Another site at No. 3 Central Harbourfront, which was won in 2021, was sold at a price of approximately HK $31,000 per square foot, with a total price of HK $50.8 billion.</p><p>From the failure of two sales to the release now, Evergrande Center has already changed from a commercial landmark that Evergrande Group was proud of to a replacement chip.<b>Today, Li Ka-shing, who is good at \"hoarding land\" to make profits, still has the opportunity to buy bottoms.</b></p><p>In this regard, Feng Lun, a former real estate tycoon, said: In the mainland and Hong Kong, China, although Li Ka-shing has done many real estate projects in a down-to-earth manner, they are basically ordinary houses. He doesn't want to do a good job in this industry like Vanke, so he doesn't receive many particularly good reputations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HN5vojZb8w407R_TggMm0A\">野马财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008f7af8c99c674df2ab1df3744f67dd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HN5vojZb8w407R_TggMm0A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143870144","content_text":"身价缩水百亿后，李嘉诚家族旗下长实集团再次依靠“囤地”获利。由于英镑和欧元大幅贬值，重仓欧洲市场的李嘉诚家族企业遭受重创。9月23日，英国政府推出50年来最大减税政策，结果导致英国遭遇股债汇“三杀”，英镑兑美元一度走下1.04关口，债市场出现“抛售潮”，股市大跌。彭博亿万富翁实时指数显示，9月26日，李嘉诚拥有267亿美元（约1912.41亿元）身家，而前一天李嘉诚身家为281亿美元（约2011.76 亿元），一天之内蒸发99.35亿元。来源：长实集团公告在经历身价大幅缩水后，9月28日，长实集团(1113.HK)公告称，将以207.66亿港元（约190.5亿元）向新加坡金融机构Sino-Suisse出售中国香港物业项目，其中包含波老道21号豪宅项目未售出部分。在交易当天，买方已经支付20.77亿港元订金，之后每6个月向卖方支付共5笔部分付款，前两笔均每笔为10.38亿港元，后三笔每笔为20.77亿港元。另外，买方须于交易完成时支付余额。长实集团表示，出售项目令公司得以变现有关发展项目投资，买方贷款将有助交易完成，公司预期出售所得收益约为63亿港元（约57.79亿元），所得款项净额将用作集团一般营运资金用途。“囤地”11年，获利57.79亿元资料显示，波老道21号（21 BORRETT ROAD）是中国香港知名的超级豪宅项目之一，本次交易包括152个住宅单位、242个住宅停车位及31个电单车停车位。2011年6月，长实集团以116.5亿港元购入波老道地皮，每尺楼面地价为26763港元，创下当年中国香港第二高价纪录。该地皮位于中国香港西半山豪宅地段，面积约1.05万平方米，可建楼面面积约4.04万平方米，曾被长实集团主席李泽钜称为\"一级靓地\"。自从2011年被长实集团买下，该项目经历10年才正式以现楼面市，和10年前地价相比，目前楼面均价上涨超过10倍。来源：长实波老道21號公众号在公开报道中，波老道21号最近一次成交是今年6月份，成交2套，合计近4亿港元（约3.67亿元）。其中，成交的一套波老道21号小区第1期20楼1室，作价2.7亿元，套内面积约273.6平方米，按成交价计算，其单价达98.69万元/平方米。有业内人士认为，采用“囤地”式的漫长开发模式是李嘉诚长实系的一大特点，这也让其公司运用这种方式获利不少。谈论李嘉诚囤地获利，此种说法存续已久。早在10年前，《经济观察网》曾报道李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔被列入了上海官方囤地名单中。对于李嘉诚长实系的囤地行为，《华夏时报》曾报道称，多年来“长和系”在全国近十个城市十余个项目，均通过“蜗牛式”开发方式，延长土地开发周期从6年到10多年不等。面对外界质疑，长实集团曾公开回应表示，长实国内的地产项目一直根据法规及所有政府程序进行，开发缓慢，实有所误解，而出售项目也属于地产商正常商业行为。如今，李嘉诚再次实现“囤地”获利63亿港元。在业内人士看来，长实几天向单一买家全数出售波老道尚待推出之单位，能有效率地锁定可观利润。而本次交易的买家为华瑞资本，于2017年在新加坡创立，并同时取得新加坡金融管理局所颁发的资本市场服务执照。对买家而言，买入座落于中国香港最珍罕地段的顶级豪宅，环顾现今市场亦难有可媲美的优质物业，具高投资值回报率，当香港全面开关后，项目之升值潜力应甚理想。李嘉诚的买与卖从2013年开始，被业界冠以擅长“囤地”的李嘉诚开启资产腾挪，并通过出售资产项目频频获利。据不完全统计，包括出售香港中环中心、屈臣氏股权等交易在内，李嘉诚卖掉的资产规模金额至少已经超过2500亿元。在出售的同时，李嘉诚始终没有停止新的投资。2021年，长实集团通过不同渠道斥资173.8亿港元在中国香港买入4幅土地，增加了约15.46万平方米楼面面积可供开发。今年5月，李嘉诚更是自2012年后时隔十年再次出现在内地土拍市场。在广州白云区的白云空港大道地块的竞拍中，李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔也参与了竞标，但最终并没有竞得。据早前公布的一份清单，长实集团在中国内地仍持有的物业市值达1261.6亿元，分布在北京、广州、上海、长沙、南京、成都、大连等地，其中可供发展的物业市值为315.73亿元。实际上，2020年以来，长实集团先后多次出售海外业务及资产，涉及能源、通讯、房地产、电力、飞机租赁等板块，其中包括被李嘉诚称为“一生最成功的投资之一”的赫斯基能源。2022年3月，长实集团宣布以7.29亿英镑(约60亿元)出售持有的英国伦敦办公楼。长实从该出售事项获得的预期收益约为1.08亿英镑(约8.96亿元)。除此之外，今年7月，长实集团曾接近完成150亿英镑（约1168.13亿元）出售英国电力公司的交易，但由于最后时刻提价，整个出售计划最终告吹。来源：长实集团财报之所以如此操作，分析其年报数据便可窥知一二。年报显示，2021年，长实集团总收入为620.94亿港元，其中物业方面为主要营收，物业销售达到377.6亿港元，物业租赁为65.43亿港元，还包括酒店及服务套房业务为26.91亿港元，物业及项目管理为8.16亿港元，英式酒馆业务为142.84亿港元。不论物业销售还是物业租赁，中国香港及内地均所占比重较大。物业销售业务中，中国香港物业销售额为157.24亿港元，内地物业销售金额为217.22亿港元，海外物业销售金额为3.52亿港元。物业租赁方面，中国香港为43.52亿港元，内地为5.71亿港元，海外为7.38亿港元。作为中国香港首富，李嘉诚的商业动作一直备受市场关注。今年以来，李嘉诚动作频频，有声音指出“李嘉诚要逃离英国”“李嘉诚回来了”。李泽钜则回应称，卖楼是日常业务和本业，并不存在撤资。他说，内地及香港是集团的家乡，存在感情因素，但仍会关注投资回报。“捡漏”恒大中心仍有机会？之所以能够“囤地”盈利，最大的诀窍就是抄底“捡漏”。今年7月份，李嘉诚曾试图抄底中国恒大中心。7月28日，中国恒大（3333.HK）第二次以竞标形式将中国恒大中心出售，价格由105亿港元降至90亿港元。在此之前，2021年8月，市场曾传出恒大开价156亿港元寻求香港恒大中心接盘方，随后与越秀地产接洽后，价格降至105亿港元，但交易最终并未成行。来源：罐头图库中国恒大中心位于中国香港湾仔闹市中央，是一栋26层高，总建筑面积约3.21万平方米的甲级写字楼，其前身为美国万通大厦。2015年，中国恒大斥资125亿港元从华人置业（0127.HK）手中将其购得，并创下了中国香港商厦买卖的最高纪录。2022年7月底，在中国恒大中心再放售后，李嘉诚旗下长实集团递交了投标书，当时该物业估值约90亿港元。在业界看来，长实集团意在抄底“捡漏”。然而，9月13日，据中国香港公开文件披露，中国恒大中心已于近日被债权人中信银行旗下中信银行国际委任接管人接管。据媒体援引业内人士分析称，中国恒大已经拖欠违约，未按时偿还款项，并且两度尝试出售大厦资产，但始终无人接盘，因此最终贷款方决定接管这一资产。在国庆前夕，有市场消息称，中国恒大中心大楼正由第一太平戴维斯独家代理出售，截标日期为2022年10月31日。据市场估算，目前该物业的估值在80亿港元以上，较恒大125亿港元的购入折价约40%。该物业已吸引了香港本地发展商、基金及内地买家询问和参观。第一太平戴维斯则表示，参照恒基兆业地产于2017年投得的美利道项目，呎价约5万港元，总价约323.8亿港元；另一个于2021年投得的中环海滨3号用地，则以呎价约3.1万港元，总价508亿港元成交。从两次出售失败到如今再次放售，恒大中心早已从原先恒大集团为之骄傲的商业地标变为置换筹码。如今，善于“囤地”获利的李嘉诚，依然有抄底的机会。对此，昔日地产大佬冯仑表示：在内地和中国香港，虽然李嘉诚也扎扎实实地做了不少房地产项目，但基本上都是普通的住宅，他不像万科那样要把这个行业彻底做好，所以他收到口碑特别好的并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916034129,"gmtCreate":1664484455761,"gmtModify":1676537462006,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[害羞]&nbsp;","listText":"[害羞]&nbsp;","text":"[害羞]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916034129","repostId":"1136112284","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136112284","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664420902,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136112284?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Large options order | Sudden big news, Apple options trading volume surged! Alibaba Put transactions account for more than 80%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136112284","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一、市场概览 （28/09）美东时间周三，在英国央行紧急干预市场后，市场情绪明显好转，美股大幅上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.88%，报29,683.74点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报3,719.","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Market Overview (28/09)</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, after the Bank of England intervened in the market urgently, market sentiment improved significantly, and U.S. stocks rose sharply. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 1.88% to 29,683.74 points; The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 3,719.04 points; The Nasdaq rose 2.05% to 11,051.64 points.</p><p>The total trading volume of the options market reached 40,683,443 contracts, higher than the 90-day average trading volume, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p>S&P Index ETF-SPY options traded 9.837 million contracts, an increase from the previous trading day, of which put options accounted for 59.4%.</p><p><b>2. Total option transaction volume TOP10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de4ebb143b5ed75172f05cc806cf8f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2134\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 1.27% at $149.84 on Wednesday. In terms of news, Apple is preparing to abandon its internally planned production increase plan of up to 6 million units after learning that demand for iPhone 14 has failed to meet expectations. 2.353 million option contracts were traded on Wednesday, compared with 1.284 million on the previous trading day, a month-on-month increase of more than 83%; Among them, put options account for 54% of all options transactions; Among them, the $150 strike call option expiring September 30, 2022 saw particularly high volume, with 159,375 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5e7bdbfb7eb7f96932d7ab239d5043\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117618958\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple stops increasing iPhone production, what do Wall Street analysts think?</b></a></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts released a research report pointing out that it is still in the early stages of the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will still be the key to determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle. At that time, the supply chain will be fed back by the additional demand for iPhones in the early stages of the release. iPhone production arrangements will also be readjusted accordingly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It closed up 4.01% on Wednesday at $80.99. CICC's latest comments stated that in 22Q3, Alibaba's cost reduction and efficiency increase were sustainable, and the overall performance of the profit side may exceed market expectations. 614,300 option contracts were traded on Wednesday, of which put options accounted for 81.5% of all option transactions; Among them, the $180 strike put expiring January 20, 2023 saw particularly high volume, with 65,960 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb9998732216cada1ff2c361bad136d\" tg-width=\"1872\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270f54105b7b5a2daa8ba5705efafe42\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1182486151\" target=\"_blank\"><b>CICC: Alibaba's 2QFY23 revenue may be under pressure, cost reduction and efficiency increase are sustainable</b></a></p><p>It is forecast that the revenue of 2QFY23 is slightly lower than the market expectation, and the non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company exceeds the market expectation; We expect Alibaba Group's 2QFY23 revenue to increase by 3% year-on-year to 207.3 billion yuan, which is 3% lower than market expectations, mainly due to the impact or pressure on Chinese businesses due to the epidemic and macro uncertainties; We expect adjusted EBITA to increase by 6% year-on-year to 29.8 billion yuan, mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency increase that exceeds expectations.<b>3. Observation of changes</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13c3cc89f7124e0b39dca5f2e9ab1da\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It closed up 9.29% at $245.2 on Wednesday. Atlantic Securities upgraded the company to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to $283 from $211. Volume was particularly high for the $250 call option with an expiry September 30, 2022 strike price, with 16,032 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3ea64e43ae75edcf71e7d99c54c448\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a>It closed up 39.85% on Wednesday at $276.61. In terms of news, the new Alzheimer's disease drug jointly developed with Eisai has made positive progress. Volume was particularly high for the $300 call option with an expiration September 30, 2022 strike price, with 8,430 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361c9cc79e3da5413ba27ff15d5cb046\" tg-width=\"1577\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Large options order | Sudden big news, Apple options trading volume surged! Alibaba Put transactions account for more than 80%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLarge options order | Sudden big news, Apple options trading volume surged! Alibaba Put transactions account for more than 80%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-29 11:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Market Overview (28/09)</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, after the Bank of England intervened in the market urgently, market sentiment improved significantly, and U.S. stocks rose sharply. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 1.88% to 29,683.74 points; The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 3,719.04 points; The Nasdaq rose 2.05% to 11,051.64 points.</p><p>The total trading volume of the options market reached 40,683,443 contracts, higher than the 90-day average trading volume, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p>S&P Index ETF-SPY options traded 9.837 million contracts, an increase from the previous trading day, of which put options accounted for 59.4%.</p><p><b>2. Total option transaction volume TOP10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de4ebb143b5ed75172f05cc806cf8f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2134\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 1.27% at $149.84 on Wednesday. In terms of news, Apple is preparing to abandon its internally planned production increase plan of up to 6 million units after learning that demand for iPhone 14 has failed to meet expectations. 2.353 million option contracts were traded on Wednesday, compared with 1.284 million on the previous trading day, a month-on-month increase of more than 83%; Among them, put options account for 54% of all options transactions; Among them, the $150 strike call option expiring September 30, 2022 saw particularly high volume, with 159,375 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5e7bdbfb7eb7f96932d7ab239d5043\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117618958\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple stops increasing iPhone production, what do Wall Street analysts think?</b></a></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts released a research report pointing out that it is still in the early stages of the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will still be the key to determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle. At that time, the supply chain will be fed back by the additional demand for iPhones in the early stages of the release. iPhone production arrangements will also be readjusted accordingly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It closed up 4.01% on Wednesday at $80.99. CICC's latest comments stated that in 22Q3, Alibaba's cost reduction and efficiency increase were sustainable, and the overall performance of the profit side may exceed market expectations. 614,300 option contracts were traded on Wednesday, of which put options accounted for 81.5% of all option transactions; Among them, the $180 strike put expiring January 20, 2023 saw particularly high volume, with 65,960 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb9998732216cada1ff2c361bad136d\" tg-width=\"1872\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270f54105b7b5a2daa8ba5705efafe42\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1182486151\" target=\"_blank\"><b>CICC: Alibaba's 2QFY23 revenue may be under pressure, cost reduction and efficiency increase are sustainable</b></a></p><p>It is forecast that the revenue of 2QFY23 is slightly lower than the market expectation, and the non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company exceeds the market expectation; We expect Alibaba Group's 2QFY23 revenue to increase by 3% year-on-year to 207.3 billion yuan, which is 3% lower than market expectations, mainly due to the impact or pressure on Chinese businesses due to the epidemic and macro uncertainties; We expect adjusted EBITA to increase by 6% year-on-year to 29.8 billion yuan, mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency increase that exceeds expectations.<b>3. Observation of changes</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13c3cc89f7124e0b39dca5f2e9ab1da\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It closed up 9.29% at $245.2 on Wednesday. Atlantic Securities upgraded the company to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to $283 from $211. Volume was particularly high for the $250 call option with an expiry September 30, 2022 strike price, with 16,032 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3ea64e43ae75edcf71e7d99c54c448\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a>It closed up 39.85% on Wednesday at $276.61. In terms of news, the new Alzheimer's disease drug jointly developed with Eisai has made positive progress. Volume was particularly high for the $300 call option with an expiration September 30, 2022 strike price, with 8,430 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361c9cc79e3da5413ba27ff15d5cb046\" tg-width=\"1577\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","NFLX":"奈飞","BIIB":"渤健公司","BABA":"阿里巴巴","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136112284","content_text":"一、市场概览 （28/09）美东时间周三，在英国央行紧急干预市场后，市场情绪明显好转，美股大幅上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.88%，报29,683.74点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报3,719.04点；纳斯达克指数涨2.05%，报11,051.64点。期权市场总成交量达40,683,443张合约，高于90日平均成交量，其中，看跌期权占比53%。标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交983.7万张合约，较前一交易日有所上涨，其中，看跌期权占比59.4%。二、期权成交总量TOP10苹果周三收跌1.27%，报149.84美元。消息面，苹果公司在得知iPhone 14的需求未能达到预期后，准备放弃内部拟定的高达600万部的增产计划。周三期权合约成交235.3万张，前一交易日为128.4万张，环比上涨逾83%；其中看跌期权占全部期权交易的54%；其中2022年9月30日到期的150美元行使价看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为159,375张。相关资讯：苹果停止增产iPhone，华尔街分析师怎么看？摩根士丹利分析师发布研报指出，目前仍处于iPhone14周期的早期阶段，未来3-5周仍将是决定iPhone 14周期强弱的关键，届时供应链将受到发布初期iPhone额外需求的反馈，iPhone生产安排也将相应地重新调整。阿里巴巴周三收涨4.01%，报80.99美元。中金最新点评称，22Q3，阿里巴巴降本增效有可持续性，利润端整体表现或超市场预期。周三期权合约成交61.43万张，其中看跌期权占全部期权交易的81.5%；其中2023年1月20日到期的180美元行使价看跌期权的成交量特别高，成交量为65,960张。相关资讯：中金：阿里2QFY23收入或承压，降本增效有可持续性预测2QFY23收入略低于市场预期，non-GAAP归母净利润超市场预期；我们预计阿里巴巴集团2QFY23收入同比增长3%至2,073亿元人民币，低于市场预期3%，主要由于中国商业受疫情和宏观不确定影响或承压；我们预计调整EBITA将同比上升6%至298亿元，主要由于降本增效超预期。三、异动观察奈飞周三收涨9.29%，报245.2美元。大西洋证券将该公司评级从“中性”上调至“增持”，并将目标价从211美元上调至283美元。2022年9月30日到期行权价为250美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为16,032张。百健周三收涨39.85%，报276.61美元。消息面，与卫材共同研发的阿尔茨海默病新药取得积极进展。2022年9月30日到期行权价为300美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为8,430张。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"BIIB":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918717777,"gmtCreate":1664456214300,"gmtModify":1676537458597,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe52d0ffe9f801f214b039a81b443127","width":"1125","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918717777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918442198,"gmtCreate":1664441581515,"gmtModify":1676537456116,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918442198","repostId":"1191634483","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191634483","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664439517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191634483?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 16:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Changes | Futures indexes all fell, and Chinese concept stocks were sluggish before the market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191634483","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股三大指数期货在盘前时段均跌超1%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 29 (Thursday), the UK unexpectedly rescued the market overnight, driving the European and American stock and bond markets to rebound collectively. Today, the global market returned to turmoil. The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell more than 1% during the premarket session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21338872e0982368b9d049f87709a866\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>It fell 20% before the market, and the two companies of Daily Youxian were executed for 1.3 million; Zhejiang Company was deregistered due to the resolution of dissolution.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 3%, and Baidu fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d290ae502a32330bffc77feb4068c9e\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 1.35%. There is news that demand for iPhone 14 is sluggish, and Apple has given up increasing production. Supply chain sources said total orders have not been adjusted.</p><p>U.S. bank stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Down 4.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Down 3.92%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Down 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>Fell 2.7%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Changes | Futures indexes all fell, and Chinese concept stocks were sluggish before the market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChanges | Futures indexes all fell, and Chinese concept stocks were sluggish before the market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-29 16:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 29 (Thursday), the UK unexpectedly rescued the market overnight, driving the European and American stock and bond markets to rebound collectively. Today, the global market returned to turmoil. The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell more than 1% during the premarket session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21338872e0982368b9d049f87709a866\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>It fell 20% before the market, and the two companies of Daily Youxian were executed for 1.3 million; Zhejiang Company was deregistered due to the resolution of dissolution.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 3%, and Baidu fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d290ae502a32330bffc77feb4068c9e\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 1.35%. There is news that demand for iPhone 14 is sluggish, and Apple has given up increasing production. Supply chain sources said total orders have not been adjusted.</p><p>U.S. bank stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Down 4.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Down 3.92%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Down 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>Fell 2.7%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191634483","content_text":"9月29日（周四），隔夜英国意外出手救市，带动欧美股债市场集体反弹，今日全球市场重回动荡。美股三大指数期货在盘前时段均跌超1%。每日优鲜盘前跌20%，每日优鲜两公司被执行130万；浙江公司注销，原因为决议解散。中概股盘前普跌，小鹏汽车跌近8%，爱奇艺、网易、京东、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度跌超2%。苹果跌1.35%，有消息称iPhone14需求低迷，苹果放弃增产。供应链人士表示总订单未调整。美股银行股盘前走低，瑞士信贷跌超5%，巴克莱银行跌4.8%，德意志银行跌3.92%，瑞银跌3.2%，汇丰控股跌2.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918937442,"gmtCreate":1664313628287,"gmtModify":1676537428609,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918937442","repostId":"1140617695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140617695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664176713,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140617695?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 15:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Jobs' old capital ate for 11 years: fat Cook and thin scalper","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140617695","media":"雪豹财经社","summary":"今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Yan Xuegong</p><p>A scalper earned six figures this year, only one-third of previous years, but he is already considered the best among scalpers. This year's market is destined to earn less and lose more. Some scalpers have lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. Scalpers who once made a lot of money from Apple stumbled after the launch of the iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under the helm of Jobs, once built a golden age for scalpers to get rich overnight. The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, when some dealers discovered that Apple's new opportunity was cold for the first time. The iPhone 13 released last year has become the last residual warmth of the scalper business boom.</p><p>Apple is firmly on the throne of the world's highest technology company by market value, but Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world. In the eyes of some fruit powders, Apple is losing its soul of innovation and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-making company.</p><p>Jobs's old capital has been eaten for 11 years, and Apple once again ushered in the embarrassing moment of word-of-mouth overturning.</p><p>The iPhone 14, which was criticized as \"having no innovation and losing its soul\", was left out in the cold by consumers and criticized by big Vs. It also put the \"scalpers\" who made a lot of money in the Jobs era into the pit. Some people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars a day. The former golden apple has become a bitter fruit that many scalpers can't swallow.</p><p>Over the past 11 years, with its dazzling brand aura and huge commercial potential, Apple has firmly occupied the throne of the world's most valuable technology company, with its revenue increasing by nearly 2.5 times and its market value increasing by more than 6 times. However, Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world.</p><p>Regarding the topic of \"Cook unlocking Apple's innovation label\", there will be a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Jobs' daughter complained that the iPhone 14 was nothing new, and economist Ren Zeping bluntly said that \"the iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's prosperity and decline.\"</p><p>The rollover of the iPhone 14 woke up the scalpers who were still immersed in the feast and carnival of the past. The fanaticism of the Jobs era still exists, but the chill has arrived. It is their top priority to rush to the next battlefield non-stop and earn more profits.</p><p><b>A bet that must be lost</b></p><p>\"I made thorough preparations, but I didn't expect to lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized his own battle situation since the iPhone 14 was released three days ago.</p><p>In order to fight the annual battle of Apple's new products, experienced Ye Jingyue has drawn up a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7 o'clock on the morning of September 16th, he and his team stayed at three Apple stores in Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun and Heshenghui, Beijing. \"There are only 3 people in our team, and there are 15 foreign aid queued temporarily.\"</p><p>They hire people to queue up for sale at the price of 100 yuan per person. These people may be students and housewives, and they will be paid whether they get them or not. Three people from Ye Jingyue's team are waiting on the side. If the hired person grabs the mobile phone, they will show up to pay, and then take the new phone and sell it to the users in line at a higher price.</p><p>Ye Jingyue, who has done his homework, has a very clear goal. The night before Apple's release day, he gave the foreign aid a task: \"This year we will only grab the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, and purple is the top priority style.\"</p><p>On the first day, he grabbed two 14 Pros at the original price, and sold them at an increase of 1,000 yuan, earning 2,000 yuan. But then after buying more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. \"When I first got the mobile phone, I felt very happy. I thought that I would resell it with a price increase of about 3,000 yuan, and there was still a profit of 1,500 yuan for each one.\" He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"But after I got the mobile phone, I found that I couldn't sell it at all.\"</p><p>The dive in the premium of Apple's new phone came faster than Ye Jingyue imagined. By noon that day, he had noticed something wrong, and only shouted at the \"original price\" of a premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one cared. On the first day, most of Ye Jingyue's mobile phones were sold at a price increase of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the next two days, as the premium of Apple's new machine plunged in the scalper market, the loss gradually expanded.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is far more than the only scalper who has stumbled on Apple's new products.</p><p>\"The scalpers lost the bet, and there is no winner this year.\" Lu Fan, who has been a mobile phone dealer since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"The price was too high before the sale this year. After I got the phone before the sale, my peers They all set the premium of the 14 Pro Max purple model at around 3,000 yuan, and the ultra-high profit aroused the gambling nature of scalpers.\"</p><p>Most of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lu Fan got were \"robbed\" by scalpers who increased their prices by more than 1,500 yuan. \"There is no way, they gave too much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after release Source: Provided by Lu Fan</p><p>Lu Fan has been dealing with scalpers for many years, and he divides scalpers into three levels: high, middle and low.</p><p>The lowest level is the newbies who follow the trend, and these people have lost the worst this year. Intermediate people have their own team and can snap up mobile phones at the original price. Advanced scalpers can be one step ahead of others and have ordered goods from distributors before they are released. According to this year's market, only senior scalpers have the opportunity to make a small profit.</p><p>Li Nan, who directly booked a batch of new machines from dealers, is one of the lucky ones who made a small profit. But in his view, \"for products like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that before he places an order every time, he will receive a pre-order from his customer base and personal friends to determine the purchase quantity. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least by more than half\".</p><p>Loyal customers who have bought new Apple phones at higher prices have calmed down a lot this year. Most of the reasons why they are no longer enthusiastic point to the criticism of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. A customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think it's worth showing off to be the first to get a mobile phone that is very similar to the iPhone 13 in my hand.\"</p><p>If the fruit powder is calm, the scalper's wallet will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only 1/3 of previous years, but he is already a leader among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that this year's market is destined to make less profits and lose more, and some peers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail investors back stab scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, Mr. Scalper.\" On the night of the first day Apple's new phone went on sale, Liu Wei published such a circle of friends.</p><p>On the same day, after he bought two iPhone 14 Pros, he was stopped by a scalper at the door. Each one increased the price by 1,800 yuan and sold the phone to the other party, earning a difference of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Liu Wei, who smelled the business opportunity, gathered several classmates that night to snap up the iPhone 14 Pro together. In his view, this is a steady business. It's best to sell it to scalpers. If you can't sell it, you can get an unconditional refund within 14 days. He said with a smile, \"There will always be scalpers to take over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei who harvest scalpers in reverse are called \"scalper hunters\" on the Internet. Among the foreign aid of the scalper team, some people found out the doorway and began to \"back-stab\" the scalper.</p><p>Among the foreign aid hired by Ye Jingyue to queue up, two people snapped up the new phone and \"turned against the water\" on the spot. They refused to pay for it by Ye Jingyue's team. Instead, they bought their mobile phones themselves and sold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price when they went out. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm simply working for them.\"</p><p>The more advanced scalper hunter in Lu Fan's eyes is an Apple distributor.</p><p>In order to heat up the market, big dealers released news after getting the mobile phone, jointly raised the price of new products to a very high level, and targeted the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". Not much of the first batch of premium mobile phones went to ordinary users, but most of them were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The most upstream dealers have some stable profits and certain premium rights. The midstream scalpers earn the price difference by buying and selling, and the most downstream scalpers are users who are eager to get new phones first. They are the ones who ultimately pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the word-of-mouth of iPhone 14 has overturned, turning this hidden trading market under the water into a game of more losses and less wins. The profits of dealers are still relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of fruit powders suddenly cooled down, and the pressure was transmitted to the scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, who are still immersed in the dream of \"one machine profiteering\" apple feast and don't want to wake up, suddenly become the targets of reverse harvest by hunters.</p><p><b>Say goodbye to the golden age</b></p><p>Scalpers who dare to gamble on huge profits have witnessed the dream of huge wealth created by Apple mobile phones.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Jobs, wearing a black sweater and jeans, appeared with an iPhone 4 in his hand, which became a milestone in the history of smartphones and started the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"iPhone 4 is an epoch-making product, and the market is extremely enthusiastic. A 5,000-yuan mobile phone, no matter what channel you get it, will be sold for 15,000 yuan.\" Lu Fan, who graduated from 985 college, smelled the business opportunity and started the business of reselling Apple mobile phones. At that time, in order to snap up Apple mobile phones, scalpers took tents and stayed 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City, Beijing.</p><p>As a generation of Apple's magic machine, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units within three days of its launch, and the demand exceeded supply. At that time, the first sale time in the domestic market was about 4 months late. Taking advantage of this time difference, scalpers made a lot of money.</p><p>Lu Fan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that he found that the Apple store in Hong Kong was limited to 5 units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up, and the biggest order earned hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"At that time, the scalper team that was a little more diligent earned millions in three months.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, finding a scalper to buy an iPhone 4 still needed to increase the price of 1,000 yuan.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Lu Fan discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold.</p><p>Lu Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at that time, recalled that the iPhone 8 didn't sell very well, the phenomenon of queuing in Apple stores and Zhongguancun was greatly reduced, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was also at this time that the outside world criticized Apple's lack of innovation rampant. From iPhone 5 to iPhone 8, several generations of Apple products have been spit out as too similar in appearance, just like \"four generations under one roof\", and there is no substantial innovation in functions.</p><p>The iPhone X, which was highly anticipated, gave scalpers a slap in the face with a colder market reaction. Users don't buy this so-called \"unprecedented smartphone\". The two most proud innovations of iPhone X-full screen and face recognition-are considered to be no longer the first.</p><p>Scalpers lost money, and Apple lost even worse. After the poor sales of iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production. The stock price once plummeted by more than 7%, and the market value of more than 60 billion US dollars evaporated.</p><p>When the iPhone X is cold, Apple's innovation ability is pulled down from the altar, and the space for scalpers to earn the price difference is shrinking day by day. The price increase of a new machine is usually a few hundred yuan less, which is far from the hard-to-find machine before the iPhone 6S, and the price doubles at every turn.</p><p>The iPhone 13 released last year has become the last residual warmth of the scalper business boom.</p><p>At that time, the world was short of cores, and Apple encountered a supply chain crisis. The relationship between supply and demand in the special period has allowed scalpers to find an opportunity. Ye Jingyue concluded afterwards, \"It's not that the iPhone 13 is so popular, but that Apple didn't stock up so much at the first time, and that point in time became a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 doesn't have such luck. On the one hand, the new machine is almost indistinguishable from the previous generation product. \"Dynamic Island is not smart\", many bugs are exposed, and new functions are repeatedly overturned. On the other hand, Cook learned a lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of the iPhone 14. The supply of new phones is very sufficient. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the soil for scalpers to make money is getting poorer and poorer.</p><p><b>The inflection point of prosperity and decline?</b></p><p>After staying up late to watch this year's new product launch conference, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind not to find scalpers to snap up new phones this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and has increased the price more than once to buy the first new phone. In her view, taking the lead in exposing the latest iPhone is not to show off wealth, but to reflect a pursuit of top new technology consumer products. \"This is very geek\". But the iPhone 14 made her feel, \"It's not geek at all to grab this overly similar model.\"</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is recognized as being more than conservative and less enterprising.</p><p>Since \"extraordinary\" was designated as the slogan in 1997, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. In the Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, and relied on it to secure the top spot among technology companies.</p><p>But since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has made few eye-catching innovations, and has even gradually reduced from the role of leader to a follower. The iPhone 6, which has achieved success in sales, is Apple's first large-screen mobile phone, and it is considered to have followed in the footsteps of Samsung and other brands. The iPhone 14's Dynamic Island and other features have also been questioned of copying Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly said on social platforms, \"Apple is eating Jobs' capital\", and even believed that 2022 was the turning point for Apple's prosperity and decline.</p><p>There is no denying that Apple under Cook has achieved great success in terms of sales volume and the company's market value. Part of the reason is that Apple's mobile phones, which used to be expensive, have begun to \"bow their heads\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noticed that starting from iPhone 11, Apple mobile phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of iPhone 11 has dropped from 6,499 yuan of the previous generation iPhone XR to 5,499 yuan. On the other hand, the price of flagship phones in the Android camp continues to rise. The OPPO Find X2 Pro version starts at 5,999 yuan, and the Xiaomi Mi 10 Extreme version also starts at 5,299 yuan, which is the same as or even higher than the iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued its strategy of not increasing the price of new phones.</p><p>Today, the old capital left by Jobs is still enough for Apple to eat for a while. According to data from Counterpoint Research, in Q2 of 2022, Apple will still occupy more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a historical record for the iPhone since 2007 with a 57% market share, and capturing more than 60% of the global mobile phone profits.</p><p>Fruit powder like Hu Yiwen will not easily abandon apples. Although the innovation is insufficient, the annual stable update of hardware (mainly chips) and the stable software system still have great attraction to them.</p><p>In other words, the huge potential energy created in the Jobs era is enough to make the Apple empire, which is slightly mediocre in innovation, continue to slide forward by inertia. However, with the fading of apple's aura, the cold cicadas who know autumn have faintly smelled the chill and felt the consequences of lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lu Fan, a mobile phone dealer who relies on Apple for a living, Apple is still the bulk of his revenue. \"Whether the scalper fails or not will not affect all this, and the sun will rise as usual.\"</p><p>Scalpers who make money by scarcity and time difference have no time to grieve the spring and autumn. It is their top priority to rush to the next battlefield non-stop and earn more profits.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has made every effort to switch to Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that the premium level of Huawei's new phones has been relatively stable. At present, the lowest configuration has to increase the price by 1,000 yuan. The rarest Porsche model has been fired to more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which is still standing at the top of the pyramid and integrates the world's top software and hardware, the iPhone 14 cannot become a swan song. But the final chapter of scalpers' dream of getting rich may play a prelude to the end of Apple's winning.</p><p>(The characters in this article are all pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1634697401643","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs' old capital ate for 11 years: fat Cook and thin scalper</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs' old capital ate for 11 years: fat Cook and thin scalper\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪豹财经社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-26 15:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Yan Xuegong</p><p>A scalper earned six figures this year, only one-third of previous years, but he is already considered the best among scalpers. This year's market is destined to earn less and lose more. Some scalpers have lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. Scalpers who once made a lot of money from Apple stumbled after the launch of the iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under the helm of Jobs, once built a golden age for scalpers to get rich overnight. The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, when some dealers discovered that Apple's new opportunity was cold for the first time. The iPhone 13 released last year has become the last residual warmth of the scalper business boom.</p><p>Apple is firmly on the throne of the world's highest technology company by market value, but Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world. In the eyes of some fruit powders, Apple is losing its soul of innovation and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-making company.</p><p>Jobs's old capital has been eaten for 11 years, and Apple once again ushered in the embarrassing moment of word-of-mouth overturning.</p><p>The iPhone 14, which was criticized as \"having no innovation and losing its soul\", was left out in the cold by consumers and criticized by big Vs. It also put the \"scalpers\" who made a lot of money in the Jobs era into the pit. Some people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars a day. The former golden apple has become a bitter fruit that many scalpers can't swallow.</p><p>Over the past 11 years, with its dazzling brand aura and huge commercial potential, Apple has firmly occupied the throne of the world's most valuable technology company, with its revenue increasing by nearly 2.5 times and its market value increasing by more than 6 times. However, Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world.</p><p>Regarding the topic of \"Cook unlocking Apple's innovation label\", there will be a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Jobs' daughter complained that the iPhone 14 was nothing new, and economist Ren Zeping bluntly said that \"the iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's prosperity and decline.\"</p><p>The rollover of the iPhone 14 woke up the scalpers who were still immersed in the feast and carnival of the past. The fanaticism of the Jobs era still exists, but the chill has arrived. It is their top priority to rush to the next battlefield non-stop and earn more profits.</p><p><b>A bet that must be lost</b></p><p>\"I made thorough preparations, but I didn't expect to lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized his own battle situation since the iPhone 14 was released three days ago.</p><p>In order to fight the annual battle of Apple's new products, experienced Ye Jingyue has drawn up a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7 o'clock on the morning of September 16th, he and his team stayed at three Apple stores in Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun and Heshenghui, Beijing. \"There are only 3 people in our team, and there are 15 foreign aid queued temporarily.\"</p><p>They hire people to queue up for sale at the price of 100 yuan per person. These people may be students and housewives, and they will be paid whether they get them or not. Three people from Ye Jingyue's team are waiting on the side. If the hired person grabs the mobile phone, they will show up to pay, and then take the new phone and sell it to the users in line at a higher price.</p><p>Ye Jingyue, who has done his homework, has a very clear goal. The night before Apple's release day, he gave the foreign aid a task: \"This year we will only grab the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, and purple is the top priority style.\"</p><p>On the first day, he grabbed two 14 Pros at the original price, and sold them at an increase of 1,000 yuan, earning 2,000 yuan. But then after buying more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. \"When I first got the mobile phone, I felt very happy. I thought that I would resell it with a price increase of about 3,000 yuan, and there was still a profit of 1,500 yuan for each one.\" He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"But after I got the mobile phone, I found that I couldn't sell it at all.\"</p><p>The dive in the premium of Apple's new phone came faster than Ye Jingyue imagined. By noon that day, he had noticed something wrong, and only shouted at the \"original price\" of a premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one cared. On the first day, most of Ye Jingyue's mobile phones were sold at a price increase of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the next two days, as the premium of Apple's new machine plunged in the scalper market, the loss gradually expanded.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is far more than the only scalper who has stumbled on Apple's new products.</p><p>\"The scalpers lost the bet, and there is no winner this year.\" Lu Fan, who has been a mobile phone dealer since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"The price was too high before the sale this year. After I got the phone before the sale, my peers They all set the premium of the 14 Pro Max purple model at around 3,000 yuan, and the ultra-high profit aroused the gambling nature of scalpers.\"</p><p>Most of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lu Fan got were \"robbed\" by scalpers who increased their prices by more than 1,500 yuan. \"There is no way, they gave too much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after release Source: Provided by Lu Fan</p><p>Lu Fan has been dealing with scalpers for many years, and he divides scalpers into three levels: high, middle and low.</p><p>The lowest level is the newbies who follow the trend, and these people have lost the worst this year. Intermediate people have their own team and can snap up mobile phones at the original price. Advanced scalpers can be one step ahead of others and have ordered goods from distributors before they are released. According to this year's market, only senior scalpers have the opportunity to make a small profit.</p><p>Li Nan, who directly booked a batch of new machines from dealers, is one of the lucky ones who made a small profit. But in his view, \"for products like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that before he places an order every time, he will receive a pre-order from his customer base and personal friends to determine the purchase quantity. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least by more than half\".</p><p>Loyal customers who have bought new Apple phones at higher prices have calmed down a lot this year. Most of the reasons why they are no longer enthusiastic point to the criticism of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. A customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think it's worth showing off to be the first to get a mobile phone that is very similar to the iPhone 13 in my hand.\"</p><p>If the fruit powder is calm, the scalper's wallet will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only 1/3 of previous years, but he is already a leader among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that this year's market is destined to make less profits and lose more, and some peers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail investors back stab scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, Mr. Scalper.\" On the night of the first day Apple's new phone went on sale, Liu Wei published such a circle of friends.</p><p>On the same day, after he bought two iPhone 14 Pros, he was stopped by a scalper at the door. Each one increased the price by 1,800 yuan and sold the phone to the other party, earning a difference of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Liu Wei, who smelled the business opportunity, gathered several classmates that night to snap up the iPhone 14 Pro together. In his view, this is a steady business. It's best to sell it to scalpers. If you can't sell it, you can get an unconditional refund within 14 days. He said with a smile, \"There will always be scalpers to take over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei who harvest scalpers in reverse are called \"scalper hunters\" on the Internet. Among the foreign aid of the scalper team, some people found out the doorway and began to \"back-stab\" the scalper.</p><p>Among the foreign aid hired by Ye Jingyue to queue up, two people snapped up the new phone and \"turned against the water\" on the spot. They refused to pay for it by Ye Jingyue's team. Instead, they bought their mobile phones themselves and sold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price when they went out. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm simply working for them.\"</p><p>The more advanced scalper hunter in Lu Fan's eyes is an Apple distributor.</p><p>In order to heat up the market, big dealers released news after getting the mobile phone, jointly raised the price of new products to a very high level, and targeted the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". Not much of the first batch of premium mobile phones went to ordinary users, but most of them were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The most upstream dealers have some stable profits and certain premium rights. The midstream scalpers earn the price difference by buying and selling, and the most downstream scalpers are users who are eager to get new phones first. They are the ones who ultimately pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the word-of-mouth of iPhone 14 has overturned, turning this hidden trading market under the water into a game of more losses and less wins. The profits of dealers are still relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of fruit powders suddenly cooled down, and the pressure was transmitted to the scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, who are still immersed in the dream of \"one machine profiteering\" apple feast and don't want to wake up, suddenly become the targets of reverse harvest by hunters.</p><p><b>Say goodbye to the golden age</b></p><p>Scalpers who dare to gamble on huge profits have witnessed the dream of huge wealth created by Apple mobile phones.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Jobs, wearing a black sweater and jeans, appeared with an iPhone 4 in his hand, which became a milestone in the history of smartphones and started the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"iPhone 4 is an epoch-making product, and the market is extremely enthusiastic. A 5,000-yuan mobile phone, no matter what channel you get it, will be sold for 15,000 yuan.\" Lu Fan, who graduated from 985 college, smelled the business opportunity and started the business of reselling Apple mobile phones. At that time, in order to snap up Apple mobile phones, scalpers took tents and stayed 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City, Beijing.</p><p>As a generation of Apple's magic machine, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units within three days of its launch, and the demand exceeded supply. At that time, the first sale time in the domestic market was about 4 months late. Taking advantage of this time difference, scalpers made a lot of money.</p><p>Lu Fan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that he found that the Apple store in Hong Kong was limited to 5 units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up, and the biggest order earned hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"At that time, the scalper team that was a little more diligent earned millions in three months.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, finding a scalper to buy an iPhone 4 still needed to increase the price of 1,000 yuan.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Lu Fan discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold.</p><p>Lu Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at that time, recalled that the iPhone 8 didn't sell very well, the phenomenon of queuing in Apple stores and Zhongguancun was greatly reduced, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was also at this time that the outside world criticized Apple's lack of innovation rampant. From iPhone 5 to iPhone 8, several generations of Apple products have been spit out as too similar in appearance, just like \"four generations under one roof\", and there is no substantial innovation in functions.</p><p>The iPhone X, which was highly anticipated, gave scalpers a slap in the face with a colder market reaction. Users don't buy this so-called \"unprecedented smartphone\". The two most proud innovations of iPhone X-full screen and face recognition-are considered to be no longer the first.</p><p>Scalpers lost money, and Apple lost even worse. After the poor sales of iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production. The stock price once plummeted by more than 7%, and the market value of more than 60 billion US dollars evaporated.</p><p>When the iPhone X is cold, Apple's innovation ability is pulled down from the altar, and the space for scalpers to earn the price difference is shrinking day by day. The price increase of a new machine is usually a few hundred yuan less, which is far from the hard-to-find machine before the iPhone 6S, and the price doubles at every turn.</p><p>The iPhone 13 released last year has become the last residual warmth of the scalper business boom.</p><p>At that time, the world was short of cores, and Apple encountered a supply chain crisis. The relationship between supply and demand in the special period has allowed scalpers to find an opportunity. Ye Jingyue concluded afterwards, \"It's not that the iPhone 13 is so popular, but that Apple didn't stock up so much at the first time, and that point in time became a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 doesn't have such luck. On the one hand, the new machine is almost indistinguishable from the previous generation product. \"Dynamic Island is not smart\", many bugs are exposed, and new functions are repeatedly overturned. On the other hand, Cook learned a lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of the iPhone 14. The supply of new phones is very sufficient. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the soil for scalpers to make money is getting poorer and poorer.</p><p><b>The inflection point of prosperity and decline?</b></p><p>After staying up late to watch this year's new product launch conference, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind not to find scalpers to snap up new phones this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and has increased the price more than once to buy the first new phone. In her view, taking the lead in exposing the latest iPhone is not to show off wealth, but to reflect a pursuit of top new technology consumer products. \"This is very geek\". But the iPhone 14 made her feel, \"It's not geek at all to grab this overly similar model.\"</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is recognized as being more than conservative and less enterprising.</p><p>Since \"extraordinary\" was designated as the slogan in 1997, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. In the Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, and relied on it to secure the top spot among technology companies.</p><p>But since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has made few eye-catching innovations, and has even gradually reduced from the role of leader to a follower. The iPhone 6, which has achieved success in sales, is Apple's first large-screen mobile phone, and it is considered to have followed in the footsteps of Samsung and other brands. The iPhone 14's Dynamic Island and other features have also been questioned of copying Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly said on social platforms, \"Apple is eating Jobs' capital\", and even believed that 2022 was the turning point for Apple's prosperity and decline.</p><p>There is no denying that Apple under Cook has achieved great success in terms of sales volume and the company's market value. Part of the reason is that Apple's mobile phones, which used to be expensive, have begun to \"bow their heads\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noticed that starting from iPhone 11, Apple mobile phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of iPhone 11 has dropped from 6,499 yuan of the previous generation iPhone XR to 5,499 yuan. On the other hand, the price of flagship phones in the Android camp continues to rise. The OPPO Find X2 Pro version starts at 5,999 yuan, and the Xiaomi Mi 10 Extreme version also starts at 5,299 yuan, which is the same as or even higher than the iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued its strategy of not increasing the price of new phones.</p><p>Today, the old capital left by Jobs is still enough for Apple to eat for a while. According to data from Counterpoint Research, in Q2 of 2022, Apple will still occupy more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a historical record for the iPhone since 2007 with a 57% market share, and capturing more than 60% of the global mobile phone profits.</p><p>Fruit powder like Hu Yiwen will not easily abandon apples. Although the innovation is insufficient, the annual stable update of hardware (mainly chips) and the stable software system still have great attraction to them.</p><p>In other words, the huge potential energy created in the Jobs era is enough to make the Apple empire, which is slightly mediocre in innovation, continue to slide forward by inertia. However, with the fading of apple's aura, the cold cicadas who know autumn have faintly smelled the chill and felt the consequences of lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lu Fan, a mobile phone dealer who relies on Apple for a living, Apple is still the bulk of his revenue. \"Whether the scalper fails or not will not affect all this, and the sun will rise as usual.\"</p><p>Scalpers who make money by scarcity and time difference have no time to grieve the spring and autumn. It is their top priority to rush to the next battlefield non-stop and earn more profits.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has made every effort to switch to Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that the premium level of Huawei's new phones has been relatively stable. At present, the lowest configuration has to increase the price by 1,000 yuan. The rarest Porsche model has been fired to more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which is still standing at the top of the pyramid and integrates the world's top software and hardware, the iPhone 14 cannot become a swan song. But the final chapter of scalpers' dream of getting rich may play a prelude to the end of Apple's winning.</p><p>(The characters in this article are all pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml\">雪豹财经社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f2cbfd4e34e8ec82c7adfe60fe60a9","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140617695","content_text":"文/闫学功一位黄牛今年赚了六位数，只有往年的三分之一，但在黄牛党中已算佼佼者。今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。曾靠苹果赚得盆满钵满的黄牛们在iPhone 14推出后栽了跟头。乔布斯掌舵下的苹果，曾为黄牛构筑了一夜暴富的黄金时代。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，有经销商头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。而去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，但执掌这艘超级航母取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。在一些果粉眼中，苹果正在失去创新的灵魂，逐渐沦为一家平庸的造富公司。乔布斯的老本吃了11年，苹果又一次迎来了口碑翻车的尴尬时刻。被诟病“毫无创新，失去灵魂”的iPhone 14，被消费者冷落，被大V吐槽，也让在乔布斯时代赚得盆满钵满的“黄牛们”踩到了坑里，有人一天净亏几十万元。曾经的金苹果，成为不少黄牛眼中难以下咽的苦果。11年来，凭借耀眼的品牌光环和巨大的商业势能，苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，营收增长了近2.5倍，市值涨了6倍多。但执掌这艘超级航母并取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。关于“库克揭下苹果创新标签”的话题，在几乎每一次新品发布后都会掀起一波讨论的热潮。乔布斯女儿吐槽iPhone 14毫无新意，经济学家任泽平直言“iPhone 14可能是苹果盛极而衰的标志”。iPhone 14的翻车，惊醒了还沉浸在昔日盛宴狂欢中的黄牛们。乔布斯时代的狂热余温尚存，但寒意已至。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。一场必输的赌局“做了万全的准备，没想到还是亏了四五万。”做了3年黄牛的叶静跃叹了口气，总结iPhone 14发售3天以来自己的战况。为了打好一年一度的苹果新品之战，经验丰富的叶静跃拟定了一份翔实的方案。9月16日早上7点，他和他的团队便分别在北京朝阳大悦城、三里屯和合生汇的3家苹果门店蹲守。“我们团队只有3人，算上临时雇的排队外援，有15个。”他们以每人100元的价格雇人排队抢售，这些人可能是学生、家庭主妇，不管抢没抢到都会付报酬。叶静跃团队3人则在一旁蹲守，如果雇来的人抢到手机，他们就会现身付款，随后便拿着新机向排队的用户加价售卖。做足功课的叶静跃目标十分清晰。苹果发售日前一天晚上，他便给外援们下了任务：“今年只抢iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max，紫色是最优先款式。”第一天，他以原价抢到了两台14 Pro，转手加价1000元卖出，赚了2000元。但随后以1500元的溢价从用户手中收购了20多台后，他便开始亏损。“刚拿到手机时觉得很开心，想着一台加价3000元左右倒卖，每台还有1500元的利润。”他告诉雪豹财经社，“但手机到手后，发现根本卖不出去。”苹果新机溢价的跳水，比叶静跃想象中来得快。他到当天中午已经觉察不对，只以1500元溢价的“原价”吆喝，但已无人问津。第一天，叶静跃大部分手机加价600元左右卖出，亏了两万元。此后两天，随着苹果新机溢价在黄牛市场的跳水，亏损逐渐扩大。在苹果新品上栽了跟头的黄牛，远不止叶静跃一人。“黄牛们赌输了，今年没有赢家。”从iPhone 4时代开始做手机经销商的吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，“今年发售前价格被炒得太高，我在发售前拿到机子后，同行们都将14 Pro Max紫色款的溢价定在3000元左右，超高利润唤起了黄牛们的赌性。”吕樊拿到的第一批14 Pro，绝大部分被加价1500元以上的黄牛们“抢”走了，“没办法，他们给的太多了”。首日与发售3日后价格对比  图源：吕樊提供吕樊长年跟黄牛打交道，他将黄牛党分为高中低三个层级。最低层级的是跟风的新手，这些人今年赔得最惨。中级的自己有团队，能以原价抢购到手机。高级黄牛则能够先人一步，在发售前便已从销商手中订到货。按照今年的行情，只有高级黄牛才有机会小赚一笔。从经销商手中直接预订了一批新机的李楠，是小赚一笔的幸运儿之一。但在他看来，“对于苹果这种产品来说，小赚就是亏。”李楠告诉雪豹财经社，他每次订货前，都会在客户群和个人好友那里收到预订单，以此来确定进货数量。但今年预订的客户明显减少，“起码少了一大半”。曾不惜加价购买苹果新机的忠实客户今年冷静了许多，他们不再热忱的理由大多指向对iPhone 14缺乏创新的诟病。有客户告诉李楠，“我不觉得率先拿到一款与我手中iPhone 13极其相似的手机，有什么炫耀的价值。”果粉冷静，黄牛的钱包必然缩水。李楠今年赚了六位数，只有往年的1/3，但在黄牛党中已经算是佼佼者。他告诉雪豹财经社，今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有的同行已经亏了四五十万元。散户背刺黄牛“谢谢你，黄牛君。”苹果新机开售首日晚上，刘威发表了这样一条朋友圈。当天，他买到两台iPhone 14 Pro后，便被门口的黄牛拦下，每台加价1800元把手机卖给对方，赚了3600元差价。嗅到商机的刘威当晚便召集了几个同学，一起去抢购iPhone 14 Pro。在他看来，这是一桩稳赚不赔的生意。能卖给黄牛最好，卖不出去还可以14天无条件退款。他笑称，“总会有黄牛们接盘。”像刘威这样反向收割黄牛的个人散户，在网上被称为“黄牛猎手”。黄牛团队的外援中，也有人摸清了门道，开始“背刺”黄牛。叶静跃雇来排队的外援中，有两个人抢购到新机后当场“反水”，拒绝叶静跃团队代为付钱，而是自己买下手机，出门就高价转手卖给了另一波黄牛。在叶静跃看来，“我简直是在给他们打工。”吕樊眼中更高级的黄牛猎手，是苹果经销商。为了炒热市场，大经销商们在拿到手机后就对外放出消息，联合将新品价格炒到很高，并瞄定紫色iPhone 14 Pro Max为今年的“溢价王”。第一批溢价手机没有多少流到普通用户手中，而是大部分高价卖给了黄牛。以往的苹果黄牛市场就像一个漏斗。最上游的经销商拥有一部分稳定的利润和一定的溢价权。中游的黄牛通过倒买倒卖赚取差价，最下游的是急于抢先拿到新机的用户，他们是最终为高溢价买单的人。但iPhone 14的口碑翻车，让这个水面下的隐秘交易市场，变成了一个输多赢少的牌局。经销商的利润仍然相对稳定，但果粉的热情骤然降温，压力便被传导到了黄牛们身上。依旧沉浸在“一机暴利”的苹果盛宴梦中不愿醒来的黄牛，突然成了被猎手们反向收割的对象。告别黄金时代敢砸钱赌暴利的黄牛们，曾见证过苹果手机造就的巨大财富梦幻。12年前，身穿黑色毛衣、牛仔裤的乔布斯手拿iPhone 4亮相，成为智能手机历史上的里程碑，也开启了黄牛的黄金时代。“iPhone 4算是划时代的产品，市场热情的不得了，一台5000元的手机，不管任何渠道拿到，转手就是15000元卖出去。”985高校毕业的吕樊嗅到商机，做起了倒卖苹果手机的生意。当时，为了抢购苹果手机，黄牛们带着帐篷，在北京三里屯和大悦城提前48小时蹲守。作为苹果的一代神机，首批iPhone 4上市3天就售出了170万部，而且供不应求。当时，国内市场的首售时间晚了4个月左右，利用这段时间差，黄牛们赚得盆满钵满。吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，他当时发现香港的苹果店每人限购5台，于是组织了一行人坐飞机去香港排队，最大的一单赚了几十万元。“那时候稍微勤快点的黄牛团队，3个月下来赚百万都算少的。”甚至一年后iPhone 4S推出时，找黄牛买iPhone 4仍需要加价1000元。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，那是吕樊头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。当时已经是苹果经销商的吕樊回忆道，iPhone 8卖得不是很好，苹果门店和中关村排队的现象大幅减少，不少高价囤货的黄牛党亏了钱。也正是在这个时候，外界对苹果缺乏创新的批判甚嚣尘上。从iPhone 5到iPhone 8，苹果几代产品被吐槽外形过于相似，好比“四世同堂”，功能也没有实质性革新。被寄予厚望的iPhone X，以更冷淡的市场反应给了黄牛们一记耳光。用户对这款号称“从未有过的智能手机”并不买账，iPhone X 最得意的两个创新——全面屏和人脸识别，被认为早已不是首创。黄牛们亏钱，苹果损失更惨。iPhone X销量不佳后苹果屡次减产，股价一度暴跌7%以上，超600亿美元市值蒸发。iPhone X遇冷，苹果的创新能力被拉下神坛，黄牛们赚差价的空间日渐缩小。一台新机通常加价小几百元，与iPhone 6S之前的一机难求、动辄价格翻倍相差甚远。去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。彼时正值全球缺芯，苹果遭遇供应链危机。特殊时期的供需关系，让黄牛们找到了可乘之机。叶静跃事后总结道，“并不是iPhone 13多受欢迎，而是苹果在第一时间没有那么多备货，那个时间点就成了赚钱的好机会。”但iPhone 14没有这样的幸运。一方面，新机被吐槽与上一代产品几乎毫无区别，“灵动岛不灵动”，多项bug曝光，新功能屡屡翻车。另一方面，库克吸取教训，更注重iPhone 14的供应链管理，新机供货十分充足。有网友表示，Pro版本新机等半个月左右便可到货。这意味着，黄牛赚钱的土壤越来越贫瘠。盛极而衰的拐点？熬夜看完今年的新品发布会后，苹果发烧友胡艺文下定决心，今年不再找黄牛加钱抢购新机。她买过iPhone 14以外的所有iPhone机型，而且不止一次加价购买首发新机。在她看来，抢先一步晒出最新款iPhone并非炫富，而是体现一种对顶级新科技消费产品的追求，“这很极客”。但iPhone 14让她觉得，“抢这种过度相似的机型一点也不极客”。对被公认守成有余、进取不足的库克而言，这当然不是件好事。从1997年将“不同凡响”定为slogan开始，创新便被视为苹果的灵魂。在乔布斯时代，苹果曾推出不止一款开创性的产品，并凭此坐稳了科技公司的头把交椅。但自2011年库克担任CEO以来，苹果便鲜有令人眼前一亮的创新，甚至从引领者的角色逐渐沦为追随者。在销量上取得成功的iPhone 6，是苹果首次推出大屏手机，被认为步了三星等品牌的后尘。iPhone 14的灵动岛等功能，也被质疑抄袭安卓厂商。经济学家任泽平在社交平台上直言，“苹果是在吃乔布斯的老本”，甚至认为2022年是苹果盛极而衰的转折点。不可否认，从销量和公司市值来看，库克掌舵下的苹果取得了巨大的成功。部分原因在于，昔日价格高高在上的苹果手机，在定价上开始“低头”。胡艺文注意到，从iPhone 11开始，苹果手机变得“便宜起来”。一方面，iPhone 11的起售价从上一代产品iPhone XR的6499元降至5499元。另一方面，安卓阵营的旗舰机价格持续上涨，OPPO Find X2 Pro版本5999元起，小米10至尊版也要5299元起，与iPhone持平甚至更高。此后，苹果一直延续新机不涨价的策略。如今，乔布斯留下的老本仍然够苹果吃上一阵子。据Counterpoint Research数据，2022年Q2，苹果在高端智能手机市场仍占据着过半江山，以57%的市场份额创下iPhone自2007年以来的历史纪录，并将全球手机六成多的利润收入囊中。胡艺文这样的果粉也不会轻易抛弃苹果。虽然创新不足，但一年一度的硬件（主要是芯片）稳定更新、软件系统稳定，仍对他们有巨大的吸引力。换句话说，乔布斯时代创造的巨大势能，足以让在创新方面略显平庸的苹果帝国靠惯性继续向前滑行。但随着苹果光环褪色，知秋的寒蝉已经隐隐嗅到寒意，感知到创新乏力的后果。对于靠苹果吃饭的手机经销商吕樊而言，苹果仍然是他营收的大头，“黄牛的失败与否，不影响这一切，太阳照常升起”。靠稀缺性和时间差赚钱的黄牛们则无暇为此悲春伤秋。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。叶静跃已全力转战华为Mate 50。他告诉雪豹财经社，华为新机溢价水平一直比较稳定，目前最低配都要加价1000元，最稀有的保时捷款已被炒到了2.5万元以上，较原价（12999元）翻了近一倍。对于仍站在金字塔尖的全球顶级软硬件一体的苹果公司而言，iPhone 14不可能成为绝唱。但黄牛们暴富梦的终章，或许将为苹果躺赢的终结，奏响一段前奏。（本文人物均为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913668659,"gmtCreate":1663981873172,"gmtModify":1676537373995,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913668659","repostId":"1123410633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123410633","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663932651,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123410633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 19:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Before the Market | What Happened? Stocks, Crude Oil, Gold Accelerate Declines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123410633","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 23, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell across the board. As of press time, Dow futures fell 1.27%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.53%; S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Goldman Sachs finally turned short! Significantly lowered the target price of US stocks, and it is expected to fall another 4% before the end of the year</b></a><b></b></p><p>Thursday Eastern Time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The year-end price target for the S&P 500 index was lowered to 3,600 points from the previous forecast of 4,300 points, saying that a sharp change in the outlook for upward interest rates will drag down U.S. stock valuations. This means that Goldman Sachs expects U.S. stocks to continue to fall by more than 4% for the rest of the year.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>U.S. star technology stocks all fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>, AMD fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Both fell more than 1%;</p><p>U.S. cruise stocks fell premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian cruise line</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Fell more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. oil stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">Apache</a>Fell more than 3%;</p><p>The precious metals sector of U.S. stocks generally fell before the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">Harmony Gold</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">Jintian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">Cordellen Minerals</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">Hecla Minerals</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">Barrick Gold</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">Royal Gold</a>Fell more than 2%;</p><p>U.S. blockchain concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>Fell more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, having previously denied reports that it was considering withdrawing from the US market;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell more than 4% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Previous research reports stated that XPeng's new car G9 has no obvious competitive advantage compared with its peers, and if competition intensifies, the valuation will be under pressure;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>It rose nearly 6% before the market, and it is rumored that many potential buyers are considering acquiring the company;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the gross profit margin in Q4 was 10.18%, lower than the same period last year.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 2.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 2.34%, and France's CAC40 fell 2.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell sharply. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 3.47% to $80.59 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.06% to $87.69 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures continued to fall, falling 1.76% to $1,651.5 an ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Before the Market | What Happened? Stocks, Crude Oil, Gold Accelerate Declines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBefore the Market | What Happened? Stocks, Crude Oil, Gold Accelerate Declines\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-23 19:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 23, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell across the board. As of press time, Dow futures fell 1.27%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.53%; S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Goldman Sachs finally turned short! Significantly lowered the target price of US stocks, and it is expected to fall another 4% before the end of the year</b></a><b></b></p><p>Thursday Eastern Time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The year-end price target for the S&P 500 index was lowered to 3,600 points from the previous forecast of 4,300 points, saying that a sharp change in the outlook for upward interest rates will drag down U.S. stock valuations. This means that Goldman Sachs expects U.S. stocks to continue to fall by more than 4% for the rest of the year.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>U.S. star technology stocks all fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>, AMD fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Both fell more than 1%;</p><p>U.S. cruise stocks fell premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian cruise line</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Fell more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. oil stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">Apache</a>Fell more than 3%;</p><p>The precious metals sector of U.S. stocks generally fell before the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">Harmony Gold</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">Jintian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">Cordellen Minerals</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">Hecla Minerals</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">Barrick Gold</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">Royal Gold</a>Fell more than 2%;</p><p>U.S. blockchain concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>Fell more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, having previously denied reports that it was considering withdrawing from the US market;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell more than 4% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Previous research reports stated that XPeng's new car G9 has no obvious competitive advantage compared with its peers, and if competition intensifies, the valuation will be under pressure;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>It rose nearly 6% before the market, and it is rumored that many potential buyers are considering acquiring the company;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the gross profit margin in Q4 was 10.18%, lower than the same period last year.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 2.74%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 2.34%, and France's CAC40 fell 2.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell sharply. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 3.47% to $80.59 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.06% to $87.69 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures continued to fall, falling 1.76% to $1,651.5 an ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123410633","content_text":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周四，高盛将标普500指数的年底目标价从此前预测的4300点下调至3600点，称利率上行前景的大幅转变将拖累美股估值。这意味着高盛预计在今年剩余的时间内，美股还要继续下跌超4%。盘前行情美股明星科技股盘前齐挫，特斯拉、奈飞、英伟达、AMD跌超2%，苹果、亚马逊、谷歌A、微软均跌超1%；美股邮轮股盘前走低，嘉年华邮轮跌超5%，挪威邮轮跌超4%，皇家加勒比邮轮跌超3%；美股石油股盘前普跌，英国石油跌超5%，卡隆石油跌超4%，西方石油、阿帕契跌超3%；美股贵金属板块盘前普跌，哈莫尼黄金跌近8%，金田、科尔黛伦矿业跌超5%，赫克拉矿业跌超4%，纽曼矿业、巴里克黄金、皇家黄金跌超2%；美股区块链概念股普跌，Riot Blockchain跌超7%，Coinbase、Marathon Digital、MicroStrategy跌超4%；瑞士信贷盘前跌超8%，此前否认有关其考虑退出美国市场的报道；小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%，瑞银此前研报表示，小鹏新车G9与同业比无明显竞争优势，若竞争加剧估值将受压；Cano Health盘前涨近6%，传多个潜在买家考虑收购公司；好市多盘前跌逾3%，Q4毛利率10.18%，低于去年同期。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.74%，英国富时100跌2.34%，法国CAC40跌2.46%。原油原油期货大幅走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌3.47%，报80.59美元/桶；布伦特原油跌3.06%，报87.69美元/桶。黄金黄金期货持续下挫，截止发稿，跌1.76%，报1651.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919089860,"gmtCreate":1663713322051,"gmtModify":1676537318749,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919089860","repostId":"1159422659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159422659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663677204,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159422659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 20:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market comments | Where is the end of the Fed's current rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159422659","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"》》》盘前 | 三大期指齐挫！高盛预计联储还将加息4次关于周三的加息决定，似乎也没有什么悬念了，从期货市场来看基本上是75个基点（有20%左右概率会是100个基点，可以忽略不计），鲍威尔一定会跟着市场","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1121095051\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | The three major futures indexes all fell! Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to rate hike 4 more times</b></a><b></b></p><p>Regarding Wednesday's rate hike decision, there seems to be no suspense. From the perspective of the futures market, it is basically 75 basis points (there is a probability of about 20% that it will be 100 basis points, which is negligible). Powell will definitely follow the market's expectations. Come and go. After this rate hike, the overnight interest rate in the United States will enter the range of 3%-3.25%. This interest rate is basically flush with the current 10-year interest rate. Even if the 10-year interest rate continues to rise after the rate hike, the curve will definitely be flatter.</p><p>Now we need to think about another question, what is the end point of Powell or the Fed's rate hike (4%? Or 5%?), will the Fed stop rate hike or even start cutting interest rates by the beginning of next year, as predicted by the futures market?</p><p>People who have followed Powell for a long time and analyzed his personality will know that he has a characteristic, that is, he is not very confident. His lack of self-confidence comes from three aspects: (1) his academic qualifications are not as good as those of the former Federal Reserve chairman, (2) the first president he met after taking office bullied him, (3) he encountered the worst COVID-19 pandemic in a century and the worst COVID-19 pandemic in decades. High inflation. Powell, who is not confident, likes to quote history when he is at work, and mentions \"19xx\" from time to time during his speech.</p><p>It's a good thing to like studying history, especially for investing in something where \"experience + innovation\" is equally divided. Studying history is a very good habit. Quantitative Foundation \"backtesting\", Bridgewater will de-digitize historical data. Powell is also right about history, but when he mentions history many times, he feels a little lacking in confidence.</p><p>Throughout the history of \"inflation\" in the United States, there is a period of history that has a huge impact on the current Powell, and that is the 17-year The Great Inflation (Great Inflation) in the United States from 1865 to 1882. Inflation in the United States after World War II will basically rise and then fall. Only during this period, the United States has experienced 17 years of high inflation. In these 17 years, the United States has experienced four economic recessions, two energy crises, and price controls that are only available during wars. This period was also the biggest failure of American macroeconomic policy (Siegel 1994).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0122ab3667e25f66a8990ad80a2aa7d0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Why do you know that this period of history has a huge impact on the current Powell? Because the Wall Street Journal found that Powell highly respected former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and even quoted Volcker's autobiography \"Keeping At It\" when he spoke. Volcker's main achievement (without discussing right or wrong) is to suppress the 17-year U.S. inflation. Although it finally led to a severe recession in the U.S. economy, inflation also went down.</p><p>According to the classic macro curve \"Phillips Curve\", we can only occupy one end between the two goals of inflation and employment. If maximum employment is guaranteed, then inflation will be high; If inflation is required to continue, the unemployment rate will be high. Here's what the curve looks like.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385774ce64fc31a08eee099cde69326\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But during the Great Inflation period, the Fed found that if inflation was allowed to remain high, the unemployment rate would eventually rise. The Phillips curve won't be a fixed curve, but a curve that moves up and down. High inflation has become the main target of the Federal Reserve. After the 2008 financial crisis, global inflation, especially in the United States, has remained low, so the goal of the Federal Reserve has always been to increase employment. But now that employment is saturated and inflation is high, the Fed's goal is automatically adjusted to deal with inflation.</p><p>Why did the United States have high inflation for 17 years? There are many reasons behind this, artificial and natural laws of economy, so I won't expand it here. But one important lesson is that<b>If inflation is high for longer, the likelihood that inflation will fall back will be lower, forming a negative feedback</b>。 From a micro level, it is \"assuming that the breadmaker expects the price of flour to continue to rise, then the breadmaker will raise the price of bread first; if the landlord expects the breadmaker to raise the price of bread, he will also raise the price of bread.\" Raise the rent price \", everyone expects inflation to continue, so inflation will become more stubborn. Powell also understands this truth, so he has repeatedly said that the inflation expectations of society should be eliminated.</p><p>For Powell, the goal now is to suppress inflation as soon as possible, at all costs. The longer it takes, the more troublesome it will be. He will never pay attention to the rise and fall of the stock market. And if the market still interprets him as dovish, and the market rises, he will not be happy, because the rise of the stock market will also drive inflation (if the company's stock rises, then the company's capital expenditure will also rise). So whether it is 4% or 5%, it will not be the ultimate goal of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has no ultimate goal. Volcker increased the interest rate to 20% that year.</p><p>The Federal Reserve canceled the dot plot this time (this thing has never been accurate, I have said it for several years). The purpose is not to give the market any hope of a \"rate hike end point\", and to not want everyone to see the dot plot and say, \"The Fed still has 100 basis points to stop\" (because the dot plot will give a long-term rate hike path). The Fed has to dispel any expectation that the rate hike will end-many people have seen that the Fed will cancel the dot plot this time, but no one thinks about the motivation behind it.</p><p>Another thing to note is that during the 17-year period of great inflation in the United States, inflation went up and down many times. The lowest point of the decline was 3.7%, but inflation rose rapidly later. I don't know if history will repeat this time, but in order to avoid similar recurrence of high inflation this time, Powell will not dare to relax rate hike even if inflation falls to 3.7%, let alone cut interest rates.</p><p>Any expectation that the Fed will turn dove is false.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market comments | Where is the end of the Fed's current rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market comments | Where is the end of the Fed's current rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-20 20:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1121095051\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | The three major futures indexes all fell! Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to rate hike 4 more times</b></a><b></b></p><p>Regarding Wednesday's rate hike decision, there seems to be no suspense. From the perspective of the futures market, it is basically 75 basis points (there is a probability of about 20% that it will be 100 basis points, which is negligible). Powell will definitely follow the market's expectations. Come and go. After this rate hike, the overnight interest rate in the United States will enter the range of 3%-3.25%. This interest rate is basically flush with the current 10-year interest rate. Even if the 10-year interest rate continues to rise after the rate hike, the curve will definitely be flatter.</p><p>Now we need to think about another question, what is the end point of Powell or the Fed's rate hike (4%? Or 5%?), will the Fed stop rate hike or even start cutting interest rates by the beginning of next year, as predicted by the futures market?</p><p>People who have followed Powell for a long time and analyzed his personality will know that he has a characteristic, that is, he is not very confident. His lack of self-confidence comes from three aspects: (1) his academic qualifications are not as good as those of the former Federal Reserve chairman, (2) the first president he met after taking office bullied him, (3) he encountered the worst COVID-19 pandemic in a century and the worst COVID-19 pandemic in decades. High inflation. Powell, who is not confident, likes to quote history when he is at work, and mentions \"19xx\" from time to time during his speech.</p><p>It's a good thing to like studying history, especially for investing in something where \"experience + innovation\" is equally divided. Studying history is a very good habit. Quantitative Foundation \"backtesting\", Bridgewater will de-digitize historical data. Powell is also right about history, but when he mentions history many times, he feels a little lacking in confidence.</p><p>Throughout the history of \"inflation\" in the United States, there is a period of history that has a huge impact on the current Powell, and that is the 17-year The Great Inflation (Great Inflation) in the United States from 1865 to 1882. Inflation in the United States after World War II will basically rise and then fall. Only during this period, the United States has experienced 17 years of high inflation. In these 17 years, the United States has experienced four economic recessions, two energy crises, and price controls that are only available during wars. This period was also the biggest failure of American macroeconomic policy (Siegel 1994).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0122ab3667e25f66a8990ad80a2aa7d0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Why do you know that this period of history has a huge impact on the current Powell? Because the Wall Street Journal found that Powell highly respected former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and even quoted Volcker's autobiography \"Keeping At It\" when he spoke. Volcker's main achievement (without discussing right or wrong) is to suppress the 17-year U.S. inflation. Although it finally led to a severe recession in the U.S. economy, inflation also went down.</p><p>According to the classic macro curve \"Phillips Curve\", we can only occupy one end between the two goals of inflation and employment. If maximum employment is guaranteed, then inflation will be high; If inflation is required to continue, the unemployment rate will be high. Here's what the curve looks like.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385774ce64fc31a08eee099cde69326\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But during the Great Inflation period, the Fed found that if inflation was allowed to remain high, the unemployment rate would eventually rise. The Phillips curve won't be a fixed curve, but a curve that moves up and down. High inflation has become the main target of the Federal Reserve. After the 2008 financial crisis, global inflation, especially in the United States, has remained low, so the goal of the Federal Reserve has always been to increase employment. But now that employment is saturated and inflation is high, the Fed's goal is automatically adjusted to deal with inflation.</p><p>Why did the United States have high inflation for 17 years? There are many reasons behind this, artificial and natural laws of economy, so I won't expand it here. But one important lesson is that<b>If inflation is high for longer, the likelihood that inflation will fall back will be lower, forming a negative feedback</b>。 From a micro level, it is \"assuming that the breadmaker expects the price of flour to continue to rise, then the breadmaker will raise the price of bread first; if the landlord expects the breadmaker to raise the price of bread, he will also raise the price of bread.\" Raise the rent price \", everyone expects inflation to continue, so inflation will become more stubborn. Powell also understands this truth, so he has repeatedly said that the inflation expectations of society should be eliminated.</p><p>For Powell, the goal now is to suppress inflation as soon as possible, at all costs. The longer it takes, the more troublesome it will be. He will never pay attention to the rise and fall of the stock market. And if the market still interprets him as dovish, and the market rises, he will not be happy, because the rise of the stock market will also drive inflation (if the company's stock rises, then the company's capital expenditure will also rise). So whether it is 4% or 5%, it will not be the ultimate goal of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has no ultimate goal. Volcker increased the interest rate to 20% that year.</p><p>The Federal Reserve canceled the dot plot this time (this thing has never been accurate, I have said it for several years). The purpose is not to give the market any hope of a \"rate hike end point\", and to not want everyone to see the dot plot and say, \"The Fed still has 100 basis points to stop\" (because the dot plot will give a long-term rate hike path). The Fed has to dispel any expectation that the rate hike will end-many people have seen that the Fed will cancel the dot plot this time, but no one thinks about the motivation behind it.</p><p>Another thing to note is that during the 17-year period of great inflation in the United States, inflation went up and down many times. The lowest point of the decline was 3.7%, but inflation rose rapidly later. I don't know if history will repeat this time, but in order to avoid similar recurrence of high inflation this time, Powell will not dare to relax rate hike even if inflation falls to 3.7%, let alone cut interest rates.</p><p>Any expectation that the Fed will turn dove is false.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159422659","content_text":"》》》盘前 | 三大期指齐挫！高盛预计联储还将加息4次关于周三的加息决定，似乎也没有什么悬念了，从期货市场来看基本上是75个基点（有20%左右概率会是100个基点，可以忽略不计），鲍威尔一定会跟着市场的期待来走。这次加息之后，美国的隔夜利率会进入3%-3.25%区间，这个利率基本上和当下的10年利率齐平，即使10年利率在加息之后继续攀升，但是曲线一定会更加扁平化。现在需要思考另一个问题，鲍威尔或者说美联储加息的终点是什么（4%？还是5%？），是不是像期货市场预测的那样，到了明年年初美联储会停止加息甚至开始降息？长期跟踪鲍威尔以及分析过他个性的人，会知道他有一个特点，就是不太自信。他的不自信来自于3个方面：（1）学历上不如前任美联储主席，（2）上台之后遇到的第一个总统霸凌他，（3）遇到了百年不遇的新冠疫情和几十年不遇的高通胀。不自信的鲍威尔在工作的时候，喜欢引用历史，说话之间时不时会提到“19xx年”。喜欢研究历史是件好事，特别是对于投资这种“经验+创新”各占一半的事情，研究历史是一个非常好的习惯。量化基金会“回测”，桥水会去数据化历史数据。鲍威尔看历史也是对的，但是嘴上多次提到历史，就有点感觉心里底气有点不足。纵观美国的“通货膨张”历史，有一段历史对于当下的鲍威尔的影响巨大，那就是美国1865-1882年长达17年的The Great Inflation（大通胀）。美国二战后的通胀，基本上都会冒头之后就落下去，唯独这段时间，美国经历了长达17年的高通胀。在这17年时间，美国经历了4次经济衰退，2次能源危机，以及只有战争时期才有的价格管控。这段时间也是美国宏观经济政策最大的失败（the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period” (Siegel 1994).）。为什么知道这段历史对于当下的鲍威尔的影响巨大？因为华尔街日报发现鲍威尔对于前任美联储主席Paul Volcker非常推崇，就连说话都会引用Volcker的自传“Keeping At It”。而Volcker的主要政绩（不讨论对错）就是把长达17年的美国通胀给压了下去，尽管最后导致了美国经济进入了严重衰退，但是通胀也下去了。根据经典的宏观曲线“菲利普斯曲线”，在通胀和就业这两个目标之间，我们只能占到一头。如果保证最大就业，那么通胀就会高；如果要求通胀下去，那么失业率就会高。曲线的样子如下。但是大通胀时期，美联储发现，如果任由通胀高企，那么失业率最后也会上去。菲利普斯曲线不会是一条固定不变的曲线，而是会上下移动的曲线。高通胀就成了美联储要对付的主要目标。在2008年金融危机之后，全球特别是美国的通胀一直保持在低位，所以美联储的目标一直是提高就业。但是当下就业已经饱和，通胀高企，所以美联储的目标就自动调整成对付通胀。为什么当年美国有长达17年的高通胀？这后面有很多原因，有人为的，也有经济自然规律，这里就不展开了。但是有一个重要经验教训，就是如果高通胀的时间越长，那么通胀要想回落的可能性就会越低，形成一种负向反馈。从微观层面来说，就是“假设做面包的人预计面粉价格会持续上涨，那么做面包的人就会先把面包价格提起来；房东如果预期做面包的人会提高面包价格，那么也会把房租价格提起来”，大家都预期通胀会持续那么通胀就会越加顽固。鲍威尔也懂这个道理，所以他一再说要把社会的通胀预期给消灭。对于鲍威尔来说，现在的目标就是尽快把通胀给摁下去，要不惜一切代价，时间拖得越久就越麻烦，什么股市涨跌他是绝对不会理会的。而且如果市场一旦还解读他鸽派，从而市场上涨，他是不高兴的，因为股市上涨也会推动通货膨张（公司股票上涨了，那么公司的资本支出也会上升）。所以无论是4%还是5%，都不会是美联储的最终目标，美联储就没有最终目标，当年Volcker把利率加到了20%。美联储这次取消了点阵图（这东西从来就不准，我说了好几年），目的就是不想给市场任何“加息终点”的希望，不想大家看到点阵图会说“美联储还有100个基点就会停止了”（因为点阵图会给出长期加息路径）。任何期望加息到头的想法，美联储都要打消——很多人都看到了美联储这次会取消点阵图，但是没人去想后面的动机。另外一个需要注意的是，在美国的17年的大通胀时期，通胀是上上下下起伏了好多次，回落的最低点曾经到过3.7%，但是通胀后面又迅速起来了。我不知道这次历史会不会重复，但是鲍威尔会为了避免这次出现类似的高通胀反复，即使通胀跌到3.7%也不敢放松加息，更不要说降息了。任何期待美联储转鸽的想法，皆是虚妄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}