星期二789 personal page - To The Moon

星期二789

星期二789

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2023-06-22

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2023-06-27

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2023-06-26

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2023-06-25

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2023-06-24

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2023-06-23

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2023-06-21

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2023-06-20

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2023-06-19

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2023-06-17

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[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188180312224016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947515165,"gmtCreate":1683286143558,"gmtModify":1683286148030,"author":{"id":"4122467264209522","authorId":"4122467264209522","name":"星期二789","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ff89484663fb597acece2256e8c8644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122467264209522","authorIdStr":"4122467264209522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947515165","repostId":"9947284641","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947284641,"gmtCreate":1683196693283,"gmtModify":1683271945603,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"🎁Tigers' Comments on Buffett's Top Buys & Sells: What's Your Thought?","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1168123923\" target=\"_blank\">Welcome to review：</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1168123923\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's 10 Key Events of the Past Year</a>Welcome to reserve the live about<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764309226627118&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\"> #2023 BRK Shareholder Meeting interpretation</a> (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764309226627118&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese</a>) and(<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764903866291207&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\">English</a>) by <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4111216680846592\">@TBlive</a>In","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1168123923\" target=\"_blank\">Welcome to review：</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1168123923\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's 10 Key Events of the Past Year</a>Welcome to reserve the live about<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764309226627118&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\"> #2023 BRK Shareholder Meeting interpretation</a> (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764309226627118&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese</a>) and(<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764903866291207&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\">English</a>) by <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4111216680846592\">@TBlive</a>In","text":"Welcome to review：Buffett's 10 Key Events of the Past YearWelcome to reserve the live about #2023 BRK Shareholder Meeting interpretation (Chinese) and(English) by @TBliveIn","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a99b24e7cd8bf74a9cb7d4dd5a891ea5","width":"535","height":"628"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f5d42bd2b4932868df491cc6ab0a1af6","width":"768","height":"806"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ba2b791d3cc615041fb018a0a97c798"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947284641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943288852,"gmtCreate":1679487380476,"gmtModify":1679487386118,"author":{"id":"4122467264209522","authorId":"4122467264209522","name":"星期二789","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ff89484663fb597acece2256e8c8644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122467264209522","authorIdStr":"4122467264209522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943288852","repostId":"1185345375","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943861079,"gmtCreate":1679357205592,"gmtModify":1679357209251,"author":{"id":"4122467264209522","authorId":"4122467264209522","name":"星期二789","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ff89484663fb597acece2256e8c8644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122467264209522","authorIdStr":"4122467264209522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943861079","repostId":"2321657328","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2321657328","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1679355679,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2321657328?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-21 07:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Aiming for next year's big easing? Swap contracts bet on Fed rate cuts of more than 3% next year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321657328","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"互换合约交易者对冲美联储大举行动的胃口简直难以置信。只有在美联储未来13个月内降息抵消去年7月以来所有加息幅度时，他们的交易才能实现收支平衡。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The appetite of swap traders to hedge against the Fed's aggressive move is simply incredible. Their deals will only break even if the Fed cuts interest rates over the next 13 months to offset all the magnitude of rate hike since last July. Don't just focus on the Fed's rate hike this week. Traders in the swap market are already betting on a big interest rate cut next year. The media exclaimed that the appetite of these traders to hedge against the Fed's aggressive move was simply unbelievable.</p><p>Currently, the one-year contract pricing of the Overnight Index Swap (OIS), a type of interest rate swap contract based on overnight rates, shows investors betting that by next March, the Fed will cut rates by nearly 40 basis points, and the premium of similar OIS swap options exercised after that month is currently priced at more than 300 basis points.</p><p>This means that the aforementioned swap contract deal will only break even if the Fed cuts interest rates over the next 13 months to offset all the magnitude of rate hike since last July.</p><p>Last Wednesday, Nick Timiraos, a journalist known as the \"new Federal Reserve News Agency\" regarded as the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, wrote,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>The failure of two regional banks triggered broader financial turmoil, leading more investors to expect that the Fed's rate hike cycle may be over.</p><p>However, on Monday, the media pointed out that so far, the influence of the above two regional banks seems to have been contained, so if the Federal Reserve decides to loosen its actions, any subsequent interest rate cut may be gradual. In any case, the current swap option valuation appears to be overvalued.</p><p>Many sell-side analysts have overturned expectations that the Fed will rate hike 50 basis points this week, but the possibility of suspending the rate hike is not high unless the market expects the Fed to think that rate hike is enough to curb high inflation. So 25 basis points in rate hike is the only logical option for the Fed this week.</p><p>During the midday session of U.S. stocks on Monday, the \"Federal Reserve Watch Tool\" of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) showed that at present, the U.S. federal funds rate futures trading market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve's 25 basis points rate hike this week is close to 74%, and the probability of no rate hike drops from 38% expected a day ago to slightly about 26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04b32695a2794f0ba2d646393014ca8\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Aiming for next year's big easing? Swap contracts bet on Fed rate cuts of more than 3% next year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAiming for next year's big easing? Swap contracts bet on Fed rate cuts of more than 3% next year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-21 07:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The appetite of swap traders to hedge against the Fed's aggressive move is simply incredible. Their deals will only break even if the Fed cuts interest rates over the next 13 months to offset all the magnitude of rate hike since last July. Don't just focus on the Fed's rate hike this week. Traders in the swap market are already betting on a big interest rate cut next year. The media exclaimed that the appetite of these traders to hedge against the Fed's aggressive move was simply unbelievable.</p><p>Currently, the one-year contract pricing of the Overnight Index Swap (OIS), a type of interest rate swap contract based on overnight rates, shows investors betting that by next March, the Fed will cut rates by nearly 40 basis points, and the premium of similar OIS swap options exercised after that month is currently priced at more than 300 basis points.</p><p>This means that the aforementioned swap contract deal will only break even if the Fed cuts interest rates over the next 13 months to offset all the magnitude of rate hike since last July.</p><p>Last Wednesday, Nick Timiraos, a journalist known as the \"new Federal Reserve News Agency\" regarded as the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, wrote,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>The failure of two regional banks triggered broader financial turmoil, leading more investors to expect that the Fed's rate hike cycle may be over.</p><p>However, on Monday, the media pointed out that so far, the influence of the above two regional banks seems to have been contained, so if the Federal Reserve decides to loosen its actions, any subsequent interest rate cut may be gradual. In any case, the current swap option valuation appears to be overvalued.</p><p>Many sell-side analysts have overturned expectations that the Fed will rate hike 50 basis points this week, but the possibility of suspending the rate hike is not high unless the market expects the Fed to think that rate hike is enough to curb high inflation. So 25 basis points in rate hike is the only logical option for the Fed this week.</p><p>During the midday session of U.S. stocks on Monday, the \"Federal Reserve Watch Tool\" of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) showed that at present, the U.S. federal funds rate futures trading market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve's 25 basis points rate hike this week is close to 74%, and the probability of no rate hike drops from 38% expected a day ago to slightly about 26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04b32695a2794f0ba2d646393014ca8\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684478\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188d7b54791372816e563490a83a7677","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321657328","content_text":"互换合约交易者对冲美联储大举行动的胃口简直难以置信。只有在美联储未来13个月内降息抵消去年7月以来所有加息幅度时，他们的交易才能实现收支平衡。别只盯着本周美联储加息了，互换合约市场交易者已经在押注明年大降息。媒体惊呼，这些交易者对冲美联储大举行动的胃口简直难以置信。目前，基于隔夜利率的一种利率互换合约——隔夜指数互换（OIS）一年期合约定价显示，投资者押注，到明年3月，美联储会降息接近40个基点，而在那一个月后行权的同类OIS互换期权溢价目前定价超过300个基点。这意味着，只有在美联储未来13个月内降息抵消去年7月以来所有加息幅度时，上述互换合约交易才能实现收支平衡。上周三，被视为美联储喉舌、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，硅谷银行和Signature Bank两家地区银行的倒闭引发更广泛的金融动荡，令更多投资者预计，美联储的加息周期可能已经结束。不过本周一媒体指出，到目前为止，上述两家地区银行的影响似乎得到遏制，因此，如果美联储决定放松行动，随后的任何降息都可能是渐进的。无论如何，目前的互换期权估值看来都是高估的。很多卖方分析师已经推翻了本周美联储会加息50个基点的预期，但暂停加息的可能性还不高，除非市场预计美联储认为加息已足够抑制高通胀。因此，加息25个基点是本周美联储唯一合乎逻辑的选择。本周一美股午盘时段，芝加哥商业交易所（CME）的“美联储观察工具”显示，目前美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场预计，美联储本周加息25个基点的几率接近74%，不加息的几率从一天前预计的38%降至略约26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"QID":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".DJI":1,"DJX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":190037039177760,"gmtCreate":1687421461131,"gmtModify":1687421465556,"author":{"id":"4122467264209522","authorId":"4122467264209522","name":"星期二789","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ff89484663fb597acece2256e8c8644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122467264209522","authorIdStr":"4122467264209522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] 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