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12-04
$DBS Group Holdings(D05.SI)$
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2023-10-26
$DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-13
$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-12
$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-10
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-09
$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-08
$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-07
$DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-05
$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-04
$Apple(AAPL)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-03
$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-12-02
$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$
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2022-12-01
$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-11-30
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-11-29
$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-11-28
$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-11-28
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ephemeral.k
2022-11-27
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CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot
ephemeral.k
2022-11-27
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$
ephemeral.k
2022-11-26
$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$
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LIMITED(S68.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966248493","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966254090,"gmtCreate":1669570708410,"gmtModify":1676538208074,"author":{"id":"4125194084474462","authorId":"4125194084474462","name":"ephemeral.k","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125194084474462","idStr":"4125194084474462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966254090","repostId":"2286321847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966232386,"gmtCreate":1669545774346,"gmtModify":1676538206431,"author":{"id":"4125194084474462","authorId":"4125194084474462","name":"ephemeral.k","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125194084474462","idStr":"4125194084474462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966232386","repostId":"2286418053","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286418053","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669522519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286418053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286418053","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big retailers into the unenviable position of using “price” rather than traffic or volume to drive revenue growth since early 2020, given COVID and the various supply chain issues and distortions caused by COVID that have wreaked havoc on the business.</p><p>The WSJ article was eerily reminiscent of Joe Nocera’s article in the New York Times in the early 1990s, where Nocera noted that the one reason inflation likely remained contained in the early 1990s was due to Walmart and its emphasis on “every day low price” or EDLP, not in the literal sense, but from the perspective that the average American probably doesn’t realize the impact Walmart, Amazon, now Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), have on retail pricing today, given their size.</p><p>Walmart recently had a good earnings report for its fiscal 3rd quarter ended October ’22, where revenue grew 8.75%, operating income grew 4% and EPS grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.</p><p>If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from “retail constipation” as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.</p><p>However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e625a90dff771b0d7e944e64afea8474\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"21\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then – perhaps – a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.</p><p>And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although it’s still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.</p><p>What’s important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric – particularly for a retailer – can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.</p><p>Walmart’s typical “inventory turnover” is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but it’s now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.</p><p><i><b>Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332f3e192c3b45a529272f50930f72af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"50\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at “average ticket vs. traffic”: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.</p><p>My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that “average ticket” over time. It’s a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 ’23 (ends Jan ’23) “given persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumables”, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.</p><p><i><b>Amazon: </b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4ee98477a97035578994e17e74c01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"21\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but it’s not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazon’s total revenue as of 9/30/22. It’s unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact “inventory” which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.</p><p>What’s clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (That’s an assumption on my part.)</p><p>The point being that the last quarter where Amazon’s revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June ’21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.</p><p>Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.</p><p>Still as Amazon’s ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.</p><p><i><b>Costco:</b></i></p><p>TTM revenue for Costco as of the August ’22 quarter, was $226 bl.</p><p>Costco never suffered the “traffic” decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ef085cd44ff2d772e22c28d7df85f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"26\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and “inventory” is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.</p><p>COST is probably better compared to Sam’s Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Sam’s Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.</p><p>In Costco’s 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, “Foods & Sundries” and “Fresh Foods” are roughly 50% of COST’s total revenue.</p><p>(I’m guessing – and please note that – COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or “fresh foods” segment. COST’s Q shows that “fresh foods” is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.</p><p>(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November ’22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)</p><p><i><b>Home Depot:</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e116c38f010b75a0518c13078f757d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"20\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although it’s not considered a “general merchandise retailer”, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housing’s importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8a09a9efc6fb5ade6a35e65306d4e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"25\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on “ticket” vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.</p><p>What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at “cash flow vs. net income” you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4313b9b9553313538aa9b1f4f5ca4b8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This table compares Home Depot’s cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.</p><p>Is this a reason to sell Home Depot’s stock – probably not – but it speaks to how the quality of a company’s earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.</p><p><i><b>Summary/conclusion:</b></i> The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the “trailing-twelve-month” (TTM) revenue metric.</p><p>Walmart is America’s largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.</p><p>Here’s how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:</p><ul><li>Walmart: $600 billion</li><li>Amazon: $502 billion</li><li>Costco: $227 billion</li><li>Home Depot: $157 billion</li><li>Total: $1,486 trillion</li></ul><p>The Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmart’s and Amazon’s importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmart’s treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always “fair and balanced” (and I’m not speaking of Faber’s special, which I thought was balanced).</p><p>But it’s at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasn’t included in the above analysis.)</p><p>In Michael Porter’s legendary “Competitive Strategy” book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is “power over suppliers”, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.</p><p>Looking at Walmart’s “average” revenue growth since the mid ’90s here’s what I found:</p><ul><li>’20 to ’22: averaged 3% revenue growth</li><li>’10 to ’19: averaged 2% revenue growth</li><li>’00 to ’09: averaged 11% revenue growth</li><li>’96 to ’99: averaged 14% revenue growth</li></ul><p>What happened to Walmart’s revenue growth, if the same “compare” were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.</p><p>Walmart’s enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue – which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report – is grocery, the holy grail of retail since it’s low cost and it drives foot traffic.</p><p>Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmart’s last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmart’s total revenue. (That was a surprise.)</p><p>When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the “physical store” aspect of Amazon’s revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still “grocery” that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmart’s dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.</p><p>Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more “analytical flavor” in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.</p><p>Typically and historically per what’s been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmart’s case especially food inflation.</p><p>Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. Hopefully, readers found the content interesting.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:15 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","HD":"家得宝","WMT":"沃尔玛","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286418053","content_text":"The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big retailers into the unenviable position of using “price” rather than traffic or volume to drive revenue growth since early 2020, given COVID and the various supply chain issues and distortions caused by COVID that have wreaked havoc on the business.The WSJ article was eerily reminiscent of Joe Nocera’s article in the New York Times in the early 1990s, where Nocera noted that the one reason inflation likely remained contained in the early 1990s was due to Walmart and its emphasis on “every day low price” or EDLP, not in the literal sense, but from the perspective that the average American probably doesn’t realize the impact Walmart, Amazon, now Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), have on retail pricing today, given their size.Walmart recently had a good earnings report for its fiscal 3rd quarter ended October ’22, where revenue grew 8.75%, operating income grew 4% and EPS grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from “retail constipation” as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then – perhaps – a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although it’s still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.What’s important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric – particularly for a retailer – can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.Walmart’s typical “inventory turnover” is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but it’s now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at “average ticket vs. traffic”: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that “average ticket” over time. It’s a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 ’23 (ends Jan ’23) “given persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumables”, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.Amazon: This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but it’s not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazon’s total revenue as of 9/30/22. It’s unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact “inventory” which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.What’s clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (That’s an assumption on my part.)The point being that the last quarter where Amazon’s revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June ’21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.Still as Amazon’s ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.Costco:TTM revenue for Costco as of the August ’22 quarter, was $226 bl.Costco never suffered the “traffic” decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and “inventory” is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.COST is probably better compared to Sam’s Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Sam’s Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.In Costco’s 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, “Foods & Sundries” and “Fresh Foods” are roughly 50% of COST’s total revenue.(I’m guessing – and please note that – COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or “fresh foods” segment. COST’s Q shows that “fresh foods” is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November ’22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)Home Depot:Although it’s not considered a “general merchandise retailer”, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housing’s importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on “ticket” vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at “cash flow vs. net income” you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.This table compares Home Depot’s cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.Is this a reason to sell Home Depot’s stock – probably not – but it speaks to how the quality of a company’s earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.Summary/conclusion: The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the “trailing-twelve-month” (TTM) revenue metric.Walmart is America’s largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.Here’s how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:Walmart: $600 billionAmazon: $502 billionCostco: $227 billionHome Depot: $157 billionTotal: $1,486 trillionThe Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmart’s and Amazon’s importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmart’s treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always “fair and balanced” (and I’m not speaking of Faber’s special, which I thought was balanced).But it’s at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasn’t included in the above analysis.)In Michael Porter’s legendary “Competitive Strategy” book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is “power over suppliers”, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.Looking at Walmart’s “average” revenue growth since the mid ’90s here’s what I found:’20 to ’22: averaged 3% revenue growth’10 to ’19: averaged 2% revenue growth’00 to ’09: averaged 11% revenue growth’96 to ’99: averaged 14% revenue growthWhat happened to Walmart’s revenue growth, if the same “compare” were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.Walmart’s enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue – which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report – is grocery, the holy grail of retail since it’s low cost and it drives foot traffic.Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmart’s last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmart’s total revenue. (That was a surprise.)When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the “physical store” aspect of Amazon’s revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still “grocery” that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmart’s dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more “analytical flavor” in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.Typically and historically per what’s been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmart’s case especially food inflation.Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. Hopefully, readers found the content interesting.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966640108,"gmtCreate":1669524961805,"gmtModify":1676538204963,"author":{"id":"4125194084474462","authorId":"4125194084474462","name":"ephemeral.k","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125194084474462","idStr":"4125194084474462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966640108","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966355714,"gmtCreate":1669426797039,"gmtModify":1676538195625,"author":{"id":"4125194084474462","authorId":"4125194084474462","name":"ephemeral.k","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125194084474462","idStr":"4125194084474462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/M44U.SI\">$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/M44U.SI\">$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966355714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9966232386,"gmtCreate":1669545774346,"gmtModify":1676538206431,"author":{"id":"4125194084474462","authorId":"4125194084474462","name":"ephemeral.k","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125194084474462","authorIdStr":"4125194084474462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966232386","repostId":"2286418053","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286418053","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669522519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286418053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286418053","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big retailers into the unenviable position of using “price” rather than traffic or volume to drive revenue growth since early 2020, given COVID and the various supply chain issues and distortions caused by COVID that have wreaked havoc on the business.</p><p>The WSJ article was eerily reminiscent of Joe Nocera’s article in the New York Times in the early 1990s, where Nocera noted that the one reason inflation likely remained contained in the early 1990s was due to Walmart and its emphasis on “every day low price” or EDLP, not in the literal sense, but from the perspective that the average American probably doesn’t realize the impact Walmart, Amazon, now Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), have on retail pricing today, given their size.</p><p>Walmart recently had a good earnings report for its fiscal 3rd quarter ended October ’22, where revenue grew 8.75%, operating income grew 4% and EPS grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.</p><p>If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from “retail constipation” as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.</p><p>However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e625a90dff771b0d7e944e64afea8474\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"21\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then – perhaps – a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.</p><p>And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although it’s still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.</p><p>What’s important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric – particularly for a retailer – can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.</p><p>Walmart’s typical “inventory turnover” is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but it’s now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.</p><p><i><b>Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332f3e192c3b45a529272f50930f72af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"50\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at “average ticket vs. traffic”: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.</p><p>My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that “average ticket” over time. It’s a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 ’23 (ends Jan ’23) “given persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumables”, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.</p><p><i><b>Amazon: </b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4ee98477a97035578994e17e74c01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"21\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but it’s not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazon’s total revenue as of 9/30/22. It’s unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact “inventory” which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.</p><p>What’s clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (That’s an assumption on my part.)</p><p>The point being that the last quarter where Amazon’s revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June ’21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.</p><p>Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.</p><p>Still as Amazon’s ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.</p><p><i><b>Costco:</b></i></p><p>TTM revenue for Costco as of the August ’22 quarter, was $226 bl.</p><p>Costco never suffered the “traffic” decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ef085cd44ff2d772e22c28d7df85f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"26\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and “inventory” is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.</p><p>COST is probably better compared to Sam’s Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Sam’s Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.</p><p>In Costco’s 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, “Foods & Sundries” and “Fresh Foods” are roughly 50% of COST’s total revenue.</p><p>(I’m guessing – and please note that – COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or “fresh foods” segment. COST’s Q shows that “fresh foods” is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.</p><p>(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November ’22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)</p><p><i><b>Home Depot:</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e116c38f010b75a0518c13078f757d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"20\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although it’s not considered a “general merchandise retailer”, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housing’s importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8a09a9efc6fb5ade6a35e65306d4e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"25\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on “ticket” vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.</p><p>What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at “cash flow vs. net income” you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4313b9b9553313538aa9b1f4f5ca4b8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This table compares Home Depot’s cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.</p><p>Is this a reason to sell Home Depot’s stock – probably not – but it speaks to how the quality of a company’s earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.</p><p><i><b>Summary/conclusion:</b></i> The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the “trailing-twelve-month” (TTM) revenue metric.</p><p>Walmart is America’s largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.</p><p>Here’s how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:</p><ul><li>Walmart: $600 billion</li><li>Amazon: $502 billion</li><li>Costco: $227 billion</li><li>Home Depot: $157 billion</li><li>Total: $1,486 trillion</li></ul><p>The Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmart’s and Amazon’s importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmart’s treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always “fair and balanced” (and I’m not speaking of Faber’s special, which I thought was balanced).</p><p>But it’s at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasn’t included in the above analysis.)</p><p>In Michael Porter’s legendary “Competitive Strategy” book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is “power over suppliers”, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.</p><p>Looking at Walmart’s “average” revenue growth since the mid ’90s here’s what I found:</p><ul><li>’20 to ’22: averaged 3% revenue growth</li><li>’10 to ’19: averaged 2% revenue growth</li><li>’00 to ’09: averaged 11% revenue growth</li><li>’96 to ’99: averaged 14% revenue growth</li></ul><p>What happened to Walmart’s revenue growth, if the same “compare” were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.</p><p>Walmart’s enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue – which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report – is grocery, the holy grail of retail since it’s low cost and it drives foot traffic.</p><p>Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmart’s last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmart’s total revenue. (That was a surprise.)</p><p>When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the “physical store” aspect of Amazon’s revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still “grocery” that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmart’s dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.</p><p>Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more “analytical flavor” in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.</p><p>Typically and historically per what’s been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmart’s case especially food inflation.</p><p>Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. Hopefully, readers found the content interesting.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:15 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","HD":"家得宝","WMT":"沃尔玛","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286418053","content_text":"The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big retailers into the unenviable position of using “price” rather than traffic or volume to drive revenue growth since early 2020, given COVID and the various supply chain issues and distortions caused by COVID that have wreaked havoc on the business.The WSJ article was eerily reminiscent of Joe Nocera’s article in the New York Times in the early 1990s, where Nocera noted that the one reason inflation likely remained contained in the early 1990s was due to Walmart and its emphasis on “every day low price” or EDLP, not in the literal sense, but from the perspective that the average American probably doesn’t realize the impact Walmart, Amazon, now Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), have on retail pricing today, given their size.Walmart recently had a good earnings report for its fiscal 3rd quarter ended October ’22, where revenue grew 8.75%, operating income grew 4% and EPS grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from “retail constipation” as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then – perhaps – a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although it’s still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.What’s important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric – particularly for a retailer – can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.Walmart’s typical “inventory turnover” is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but it’s now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at “average ticket vs. traffic”: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that “average ticket” over time. It’s a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 ’23 (ends Jan ’23) “given persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumables”, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.Amazon: This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but it’s not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazon’s total revenue as of 9/30/22. It’s unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact “inventory” which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.What’s clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (That’s an assumption on my part.)The point being that the last quarter where Amazon’s revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June ’21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.Still as Amazon’s ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.Costco:TTM revenue for Costco as of the August ’22 quarter, was $226 bl.Costco never suffered the “traffic” decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and “inventory” is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.COST is probably better compared to Sam’s Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Sam’s Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.In Costco’s 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, “Foods & Sundries” and “Fresh Foods” are roughly 50% of COST’s total revenue.(I’m guessing – and please note that – COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or “fresh foods” segment. COST’s Q shows that “fresh foods” is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November ’22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)Home Depot:Although it’s not considered a “general merchandise retailer”, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housing’s importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on “ticket” vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at “cash flow vs. net income” you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.This table compares Home Depot’s cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.Is this a reason to sell Home Depot’s stock – probably not – but it speaks to how the quality of a company’s earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.Summary/conclusion: The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the “trailing-twelve-month” (TTM) revenue metric.Walmart is America’s largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.Here’s how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:Walmart: $600 billionAmazon: $502 billionCostco: $227 billionHome Depot: $157 billionTotal: $1,486 trillionThe Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmart’s and Amazon’s importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmart’s treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always “fair and balanced” (and I’m not speaking of Faber’s special, which I thought was balanced).But it’s at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasn’t included in the above analysis.)In Michael Porter’s legendary “Competitive Strategy” book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is “power over suppliers”, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.Looking at Walmart’s “average” revenue growth since the mid ’90s here’s what I found:’20 to ’22: averaged 3% revenue growth’10 to ’19: averaged 2% revenue growth’00 to ’09: averaged 11% revenue growth’96 to ’99: averaged 14% revenue growthWhat happened to Walmart’s revenue growth, if the same “compare” were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.Walmart’s enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue – which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report – is grocery, the holy grail of retail since it’s low cost and it drives foot traffic.Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmart’s last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmart’s total revenue. (That was a surprise.)When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the “physical store” aspect of Amazon’s revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still “grocery” that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmart’s dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more “analytical flavor” in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.Typically and historically per what’s been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmart’s case especially food inflation.Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. 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LIMITED(F34.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965675981","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966254090,"gmtCreate":1669570708410,"gmtModify":1676538208074,"author":{"id":"4125194084474462","authorId":"4125194084474462","name":"ephemeral.k","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125194084474462","authorIdStr":"4125194084474462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966254090","repostId":"2286321847","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2286321847","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669517180,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286321847?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Sea Stock a Buy After Promising to Slash Expenses?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286321847","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The company is all-in on reaching self-sufficiency as quickly as possible.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Shares of <b>Sea Limited</b>, southeast Asia's leading internet company, continue their wild ride. The stock is trading down 75% in 2022 with just over a month left to go. However, following the third-quarter earnings update, shares rallied some 40% before giving back some gains as management promised to slash expenses. After a spate of heavy spending to support unprofitable expansion in 2020 and 2021, the company's new goal is to get operations running self-sufficiently as soon as possible.</p><p>Sea's e-commerce business Shoppee is expected to reach breakeven by the end of 2023, but its profitable video game segment Garena (led by the global hit <i>Free Fire</i>) still struggles as many gamers return to work or school. With a long and hard road ahead of it, is now the time to buy Sea stock?</p><h2>Sea's big shift in thinking</h2><p>At times in 2020 and 2021, Sea actually started to turn free-cash-flow positive. But as the pandemic boom in online business activity returned to normal in 2022, Sea's free cash flow turned negative -- to the tune of negative $1.68 billion over the last 12-month stretch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53566b09193f114b091d2614cfb247b0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts.</p><p>The digital entertainment segment is still a moneymaker, though not as much as before. Adjusted EBITDA (or "earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization," which measures the profitability of business operations) was $290 million on revenue of $893 million, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $334 million on revenue of $900 million in Q2 2022. Engagement in video games, in particular, the main breadwinner <i>Free Fire, </i>remains challenging as the world slowly reopens from early pandemic effects.</p><p>Issues with video games aside, e-commerce is the real glaring issue for Sea. Led by the Shoppee app in southeast Asia, adjusted EBITDA losses were $496 million in Q3, though that was an improvement from the $648 million adjusted EBITDA loss in the previous quarter. The closely related SeaMoney digital finance segment likewise lost less money in Q3. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $67.7 million, down from the loss of $112 million in Q2 2022.</p><p>Efforts to further trim the fat include tightening the budget on servers and computer equipment. Office space expansion and remodeling are also taking the backseat, likely due in part to some 7,000 employee layoffs in recent months (reportedly about 10% of the company's workforce). Rather than grow e-commerce as quickly as possible like what was happening over the last two years, the focus for Shoppee in particular will now be getting the existing operation profitable, which is expected by the end of 2023.</p><p>The result is likely a deceleration in growth for Sea overall going forward. Total revenue was up just 17% year over year in Q3 2022, a far cry from the triple-digit percentage growth reported less than a year ago.</p><h2>Is this the right move for Sea?</h2><p>This shift in focus is absolutely the right decision for Sea. The market stopped rewarding the company for its rapid expansion a while ago. The business traded for well over 20 times trailing 12-month sales this same time in 2021. Now the stock trades for just 2.5 times sales, even as Sea continues to report double-digit percentage expansion. CEO Forrest Li acknowledged this, as he stated on the last earnings call:</p><blockquote>We believe our strong focus on cash flow and achieving self-sufficiency as much as possible is the right strategy to pursue at this stage, even though we may see no growth or even negative growth in certain operating metrics in the near term. To be very clear, we remain highly confident about the compelling long-term growth prospects of our businesses and the market. Once we achieve self-sufficiency, we will be in a position to decide to reaccelerate growth again in a much more efficient and a long-term sustainable manner.</blockquote><p>The company's phase of hypergrowth was nice while it lasted, but it wasn't sustainable. As an era of extremely easy money ends with interest rates back on the rise, Sea needs to figure out how to make its online marketplace profitable without the need to tap shareholders for additional cash.</p><p>Given the market's punishment of Sea in the last year, even a no-growth business would be fine. Investors now only care about profitability. The good news is there's a plan to get there, and meaningful progress is being made toward the breakeven goal within another year's time. And in the meantime, Sea's balance sheet is still in decent shape. Cash and short-term investments totaled $7.3 billion, offset by convertible debt of $4.1 billion.</p><p>Is the stock a buy? If Sea can indeed get itself out of the red, shares might be really cheap right now at just 2.5 times sales. After all, the company's addressable markets in southeast Asia and Latin America are huge and have really only just begun to adopt many e-commerce services. If Sea can figure out how to make this business sustainable, this might once again be a great long-term investment. But until that happens, this should still be viewed as a high-risk stock. Tread lightly for now after the big post-Q3 earnings rally.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Sea Stock a Buy After Promising to Slash Expenses?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Sea Stock a Buy After Promising to Slash Expenses?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 10:46 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/26/is-sea-stock-a-buy-after-promising-to-slash-expens/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of Sea Limited, southeast Asia's leading internet company, continue their wild ride. The stock is trading down 75% in 2022 with just over a month left to go. However, following the third-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/26/is-sea-stock-a-buy-after-promising-to-slash-expens/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/26/is-sea-stock-a-buy-after-promising-to-slash-expens/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286321847","content_text":"Shares of Sea Limited, southeast Asia's leading internet company, continue their wild ride. The stock is trading down 75% in 2022 with just over a month left to go. However, following the third-quarter earnings update, shares rallied some 40% before giving back some gains as management promised to slash expenses. After a spate of heavy spending to support unprofitable expansion in 2020 and 2021, the company's new goal is to get operations running self-sufficiently as soon as possible.Sea's e-commerce business Shoppee is expected to reach breakeven by the end of 2023, but its profitable video game segment Garena (led by the global hit Free Fire) still struggles as many gamers return to work or school. With a long and hard road ahead of it, is now the time to buy Sea stock?Sea's big shift in thinkingAt times in 2020 and 2021, Sea actually started to turn free-cash-flow positive. But as the pandemic boom in online business activity returned to normal in 2022, Sea's free cash flow turned negative -- to the tune of negative $1.68 billion over the last 12-month stretch.Data by YCharts.The digital entertainment segment is still a moneymaker, though not as much as before. Adjusted EBITDA (or \"earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization,\" which measures the profitability of business operations) was $290 million on revenue of $893 million, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $334 million on revenue of $900 million in Q2 2022. Engagement in video games, in particular, the main breadwinner Free Fire, remains challenging as the world slowly reopens from early pandemic effects.Issues with video games aside, e-commerce is the real glaring issue for Sea. Led by the Shoppee app in southeast Asia, adjusted EBITDA losses were $496 million in Q3, though that was an improvement from the $648 million adjusted EBITDA loss in the previous quarter. The closely related SeaMoney digital finance segment likewise lost less money in Q3. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $67.7 million, down from the loss of $112 million in Q2 2022.Efforts to further trim the fat include tightening the budget on servers and computer equipment. Office space expansion and remodeling are also taking the backseat, likely due in part to some 7,000 employee layoffs in recent months (reportedly about 10% of the company's workforce). Rather than grow e-commerce as quickly as possible like what was happening over the last two years, the focus for Shoppee in particular will now be getting the existing operation profitable, which is expected by the end of 2023.The result is likely a deceleration in growth for Sea overall going forward. Total revenue was up just 17% year over year in Q3 2022, a far cry from the triple-digit percentage growth reported less than a year ago.Is this the right move for Sea?This shift in focus is absolutely the right decision for Sea. The market stopped rewarding the company for its rapid expansion a while ago. The business traded for well over 20 times trailing 12-month sales this same time in 2021. Now the stock trades for just 2.5 times sales, even as Sea continues to report double-digit percentage expansion. CEO Forrest Li acknowledged this, as he stated on the last earnings call:We believe our strong focus on cash flow and achieving self-sufficiency as much as possible is the right strategy to pursue at this stage, even though we may see no growth or even negative growth in certain operating metrics in the near term. To be very clear, we remain highly confident about the compelling long-term growth prospects of our businesses and the market. Once we achieve self-sufficiency, we will be in a position to decide to reaccelerate growth again in a much more efficient and a long-term sustainable manner.The company's phase of hypergrowth was nice while it lasted, but it wasn't sustainable. As an era of extremely easy money ends with interest rates back on the rise, Sea needs to figure out how to make its online marketplace profitable without the need to tap shareholders for additional cash.Given the market's punishment of Sea in the last year, even a no-growth business would be fine. Investors now only care about profitability. The good news is there's a plan to get there, and meaningful progress is being made toward the breakeven goal within another year's time. And in the meantime, Sea's balance sheet is still in decent shape. Cash and short-term investments totaled $7.3 billion, offset by convertible debt of $4.1 billion.Is the stock a buy? If Sea can indeed get itself out of the red, shares might be really cheap right now at just 2.5 times sales. After all, the company's addressable markets in southeast Asia and Latin America are huge and have really only just begun to adopt many e-commerce services. If Sea can figure out how to make this business sustainable, this might once again be a great long-term investment. But until that happens, this should still be viewed as a high-risk stock. Tread lightly for now after the big post-Q3 earnings rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985795658,"gmtCreate":1667453780774,"gmtModify":1676537921074,"author":{"id":"4125194084474462","authorId":"4125194084474462","name":"ephemeral.k","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125194084474462","authorIdStr":"4125194084474462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL 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