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2022-10-28

No. Most e commerce are not doing well due to the saturated market.

Is Amazon A Buy After Q3 2022 Earnings? The Cloud Is Dissipating

2022-10-28

No. Not a good buy to me.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-23

Ty

Watch These Retail Stocks to Defy Consumer Spending Worries and Outperform

2022-10-21

Thank you.

Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes

2022-10-20

At least she stepped down gracefully and not authoritarianly.

Truss Resigns as UK Premier After Tax-Cut Plan Backfires

2022-10-19

Thank you for your information.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-19

Ty

Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward

2022-10-19

Thank you for your info.

Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward

2022-10-17

Thank you.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-17

Thank you.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-17

Ty

Google: Buy This Stock When the Market Pukes

2022-10-17

Ty

Tesla, Netflix Set to Report Earnings: What to Watch This Week

2022-10-15

Ty

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-15

Nah. It will continue to drop till at least next year.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-15

Nah. It will drop further till next year.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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The Cloud Is Dissipating","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110500830","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryFor Amazon, a \"dissipating cloud\" does not necessarily imply a positive connotation.AWS, Amaz","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>For Amazon, a &#34;dissipating cloud&#34; does not necessarily imply a positive connotation.</li><li>AWS, Amazon&#39;s cloud, has been key to supporting the stock&#39;s valuation this year, as its core commerce business reels from both an internal mismanagement on utilization and looming consumer weakness.</li><li>But even then, the strength of the cloud is going, with AWS showing more prominent signs of structural deceleration during the third quarter.</li><li>This might expose the stock to further downtrends in tandem with broader market declines within the near term, as investors adjust expectations, creating a compelling risk/reward opportunity for Amazon&#39;s ultimate recovery once cyclical headwinds subside.</li></ul><p>Amazon&#39;s stock (NASDAQ: AMZN) has lost more than 30% of its market value this year. Investor confidence in the stock has been weak since Amazon’s core commerce business took a sharp turn from the pandemic-era boom to underutilization earlier in the year. The inefficiencies had left Amazon in a scramble for aggressive cost-cutting opportunities – spanning abandoned capacity expansion to swift shutdowns of unprofitable projects. And now a looming economic downturn risks spurring further consumer weakness ahead, casting a shadow over any possibilities for a rapid recovery in its core commerce business within the near term. This is further corroborated by management’s conservative view on prospects in the current quarter, projecting 2% to 8% revenue growth inclusive of FX headwinds, despite cautious market optimism for a seasonality-driven boost in the current quarter.</p><p>Meanwhile, AWS has largely been the backbone of any bullish thesis supporting the stock this year, making up for the core commerce moat’s shortfall as a result of both earlier mismanagement on capacity and utilization, and impacts of the unexpected economic downturn that has come down hard and fast. Yet, the AWS cloud that has largely shielded Amazon from a greater selloff is showing signs of dissipation. While AWS take-rates in the third quarter remained resilient, with cloud spending amongst the IT environment still viewed as critical to stay economically and operationally competitive, there are growing signs of market share erosion – which has long been expected given the massive magnitude of the segment and long streak of double-digit growth that appears to be falling behind that of peers. While Wall Street as long been unanimously bullish on Amazon, we believe that link is starting to weaken, especially as AWS’ impressive growth streak is starting to show early signs of moderation.</p><p>Amazon&#39;s stock currently trades at a whopping 70x forward earnings, while the large-cap peer group trades at an average of about 28x. However, it is important to consider that the company’s margins have been battered this year due to non-cyclical factors (e.g., utilization mismanagement), which has contributed to a significant diversion between its earnings and sales valuation multiples. By taking Amazon’s sales multiples (e.g., forward EV/sales and forward price/sales) as a gauge for its market value relative to peers instead, which makes a better reflection of its normalized business performance relative to peers’, the stock remains undervalued, supporting longer-term upside potential.</p><p>However, given Amazon’s dissipating cloud strength, and ongoing consumer weakness that will continue to put pressure on its core commerce business within the near term, the stock will likely be subject to greater vulnerability to volatile market sentiment over the coming months until the macro-overhang subsides. This is especially true given investors’ increasing preference for profitability under the current market climate – meaning that while core commerce’s profit margin improvement in the third quarter is welcomed, it will need to ratchet up further at a sustained pace to keep up with anticipated deceleration in AWS, and alleviate the latter’s burden of having to carry Amazon’s consolidated valuation prospects.</p><p><b>Is AWS At Risk?</b></p><p>AWS is currently the leading public cloud service vendor, accounting for about a third of the global market share. It also continues to lead its key rivals, namely Microsoft’s Azure(MSFT) and Alphabet’sGoogle Cloud Platform(GOOG/GOOGL), by wide margins. Specifically, Azure is a distant second, commanding about 20% of the global cloud market, and GCP about 10% in third place.</p><p>AWS has been a key driver of Amazon’s valuation given its impressive growth and margin expansion trajectory, acting as a key “barometer” of the company’s future prospects – especially in recent quarters, compensating for the growth slowdown and deteriorating profit margins in the core commerce segment. Despite Amazon’s likely conservative outlook for AWS implied through modest consolidated growth for the current quarter – which we view as a welcomed and reasonable move to temper investors’ expectations given the business’ massive size, and consistent with Azure’s modest guidance earlier this week. It is important to recognize that cloud spending remains resilient given “secular shift and prioritization for corporates”.</p><p>Yet, after sustaining more than six quarters of consecutive 30%-plus y/y growth, the segment is starting to show signs of structural deceleration, with third quarter growth coming in at 28% on a constant currency basis compared to the same period last year – an imminent occurrence given its massive magnitude of growth and business volume achieved in recent years. AWS’ multi-year compounded annual growth rate in the past five years has moderated to about 26%, while Azure’s is at the 40%-range and GCP at the high-30%-range.</p><p>And while AWS remains the unmatched market leader by wide margins, the gap is gradually narrowing. Specifically, recent third-party data shows that spending intentions for Azure and GCP are on the rise, as corporates turn to a multi-cloud strategy for benefits that include “risk mitigation, reliability/redundancy, multi-function availability, and mostly importantly, cost-efficiencies”.</p><p>Given AWS is already the dominant public cloud service vendor on the market, it is hard for it to take further advantage of increasing multi-cloud momentum. In a recent sentiment check survey performed by RBC Capital Markets, about 57% of corporates looking to ramp up investments in cloud have noted AWS as a potential beneficiary over the next 12 months, compared with 73% for GCP and 71% for Azure. AWS is also starting to lose share to key rival Azure amongst large enterprise cloud spending – the latter has taken over AWS as the leading public cloud service provider for enterprises generating more than $5 billion in annual revenues, acquiring more than 50% share in the cohort while AWS only captures a little more than 30%. And while AWS remains the market share leader in the largest cloud spending segments – namely, medium-sized enterprises with annual revenues spanning $1 billion and $5 billion, and small enterprises with annual revenues of less than $1 billion – rivals Azure and GCP are catching up fast. AWS currently commands about 60% of global cloud market share across medium-sized enterprises, while Azure accounts for more than 40%; and across small enterprises, AWS commands about a 40% share while Azure and GCP account for 30%.</p><p><b>Implications of a Potential AWS Slowdown</b></p><p>What these trends, paired with tempered expectations from management’s forward guidance provided, imply is that AWS is likely headed towards the beginning of moderation, with its high-flying growth coming to a gradual deceleration as it continues to take advantage of secular demand for cloud-computing solutions over coming years. Meanwhile, the rapid growth it once enjoyed will now likely rotate to peers as they benefit from the increasing adoption of a multi-cloud strategy across the corporate sector, effectively narrowing their respective market shares’ distance from AWS’.</p><p>With AWS being Amazon’s core profit engine, the increasing pace of moderation will likely bode unfavourably for the stock’s near-term performance – especially as its core commerce segment also reels from souring consumer sentiment ahead of a cyclical downturn. This means whatever Amazon is doing now to improve its core commerce’s growth and profit margins – whether it is slashing budgets for non-profitable projects, dialing down the pace of fulfilment capacity expansion, slowing the pace of hiring, and/or improved value proposition to drive increased Prime demand – needs step it up a notch further, as AWS’ strength may not overshadow core commerce’s near-term weakness much longer to uphold Amazon’s valuation prospects.</p><p>Looking ahead, these trends may also push investors to look for new areas of growth and profitability in the company – especially advertising, which represents another secular demand environment as digital ad formats rapidly displace traditional channels like linear TV, radio and paper. As discussed in our previous coverage on the stock, Amazon’s advertising business benefits greatly from its first-party data advantage, which reduces reliance on third-party user data that now faces “signal [loss] dynamics” stemming from Apple’s (AAPL)privacy policy changes implemented last year. The value of this competitive advantage is further corroborated by resilience and momentum demonstrated in Amazon’s advertising business (+30% y/y; +9% q/q) in the third quarter despite cautions advertiser spending ahead of a looming economic slowdown, which reinforces robust forward prospects. Recent market research has also echoed similarly favourable trends for Amazon’s growing advertising business, a high-margin revenue stream that will continue to contribute positively to the company’s bottom-line over the longer-term:</p><blockquote>Retail media advertising will increase from $31 billion this year to $42 billion in 2023. The bulk of it comes from Amazon’s product search but all other large retailers are now developing advertising sales through keyword search or display ads on their apps and websites. Retail media is mostly fuelled by consumer brands reallocating below-the-line, trade-marketing budgets from in-store towards digital retail networks, as a greater percentage of retail sales comes from e-commerce. Furthermore, retail-owned media networks are mostly immune from the privacy-based limitations on data usage and targeting, that display or social media owner’s face, because they can leverage their own first-party data.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Magna Advertising Forecast, U.S. Fall Update (September 2022)</blockquote><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>We remain optimistic that Amazon will be able to maintain and restore strength to its core commerce moat, though the undertaking may take longer-than-expected given near-term macro headwinds beyond the company’s control. In the meantime, AWS will continue to be the core saviour of Amazon’s valuation. But considering it may not be able to hold onto the role much longer ahead of imminent deceleration, Amazon&#39;s stock might become more susceptible to further downtrends in tandem with the souring near-term market outlook. In the near- to medium-term, we believe investor expectations for core commerce improvements will increase despite anticipated consumer weakness to make up for potential deceleration in AWS, with more focus diverted towards momentum in Amazon’s ad sales, an emerging core profit engine. For now, Amazon&#39;s stock will likely become less protected from increasingly fragile market sentiment over coming months as expectations adjust, which could potentially create better entry opportunities for eventual upsides once consumer headwinds subside.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Amazon A Buy After Q3 2022 Earnings? 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The Cloud Is Dissipating\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-28 11:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550073-is-amazon-a-buy-after-q3-2022-earnings-the-cloud-is-dissipating><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFor Amazon, a \"dissipating cloud\" does not necessarily imply a positive connotation.AWS, Amazon's cloud, has been key to supporting the stock's valuation this year, as its core commerce ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550073-is-amazon-a-buy-after-q3-2022-earnings-the-cloud-is-dissipating\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550073-is-amazon-a-buy-after-q3-2022-earnings-the-cloud-is-dissipating","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110500830","content_text":"SummaryFor Amazon, a \"dissipating cloud\" does not necessarily imply a positive connotation.AWS, Amazon's cloud, has been key to supporting the stock's valuation this year, as its core commerce business reels from both an internal mismanagement on utilization and looming consumer weakness.But even then, the strength of the cloud is going, with AWS showing more prominent signs of structural deceleration during the third quarter.This might expose the stock to further downtrends in tandem with broader market declines within the near term, as investors adjust expectations, creating a compelling risk/reward opportunity for Amazon's ultimate recovery once cyclical headwinds subside.Amazon's stock (NASDAQ: AMZN) has lost more than 30% of its market value this year. Investor confidence in the stock has been weak since Amazon’s core commerce business took a sharp turn from the pandemic-era boom to underutilization earlier in the year. The inefficiencies had left Amazon in a scramble for aggressive cost-cutting opportunities – spanning abandoned capacity expansion to swift shutdowns of unprofitable projects. And now a looming economic downturn risks spurring further consumer weakness ahead, casting a shadow over any possibilities for a rapid recovery in its core commerce business within the near term. This is further corroborated by management’s conservative view on prospects in the current quarter, projecting 2% to 8% revenue growth inclusive of FX headwinds, despite cautious market optimism for a seasonality-driven boost in the current quarter.Meanwhile, AWS has largely been the backbone of any bullish thesis supporting the stock this year, making up for the core commerce moat’s shortfall as a result of both earlier mismanagement on capacity and utilization, and impacts of the unexpected economic downturn that has come down hard and fast. Yet, the AWS cloud that has largely shielded Amazon from a greater selloff is showing signs of dissipation. While AWS take-rates in the third quarter remained resilient, with cloud spending amongst the IT environment still viewed as critical to stay economically and operationally competitive, there are growing signs of market share erosion – which has long been expected given the massive magnitude of the segment and long streak of double-digit growth that appears to be falling behind that of peers. While Wall Street as long been unanimously bullish on Amazon, we believe that link is starting to weaken, especially as AWS’ impressive growth streak is starting to show early signs of moderation.Amazon's stock currently trades at a whopping 70x forward earnings, while the large-cap peer group trades at an average of about 28x. However, it is important to consider that the company’s margins have been battered this year due to non-cyclical factors (e.g., utilization mismanagement), which has contributed to a significant diversion between its earnings and sales valuation multiples. By taking Amazon’s sales multiples (e.g., forward EV/sales and forward price/sales) as a gauge for its market value relative to peers instead, which makes a better reflection of its normalized business performance relative to peers’, the stock remains undervalued, supporting longer-term upside potential.However, given Amazon’s dissipating cloud strength, and ongoing consumer weakness that will continue to put pressure on its core commerce business within the near term, the stock will likely be subject to greater vulnerability to volatile market sentiment over the coming months until the macro-overhang subsides. This is especially true given investors’ increasing preference for profitability under the current market climate – meaning that while core commerce’s profit margin improvement in the third quarter is welcomed, it will need to ratchet up further at a sustained pace to keep up with anticipated deceleration in AWS, and alleviate the latter’s burden of having to carry Amazon’s consolidated valuation prospects.Is AWS At Risk?AWS is currently the leading public cloud service vendor, accounting for about a third of the global market share. It also continues to lead its key rivals, namely Microsoft’s Azure(MSFT) and Alphabet’sGoogle Cloud Platform(GOOG/GOOGL), by wide margins. Specifically, Azure is a distant second, commanding about 20% of the global cloud market, and GCP about 10% in third place.AWS has been a key driver of Amazon’s valuation given its impressive growth and margin expansion trajectory, acting as a key “barometer” of the company’s future prospects – especially in recent quarters, compensating for the growth slowdown and deteriorating profit margins in the core commerce segment. Despite Amazon’s likely conservative outlook for AWS implied through modest consolidated growth for the current quarter – which we view as a welcomed and reasonable move to temper investors’ expectations given the business’ massive size, and consistent with Azure’s modest guidance earlier this week. It is important to recognize that cloud spending remains resilient given “secular shift and prioritization for corporates”.Yet, after sustaining more than six quarters of consecutive 30%-plus y/y growth, the segment is starting to show signs of structural deceleration, with third quarter growth coming in at 28% on a constant currency basis compared to the same period last year – an imminent occurrence given its massive magnitude of growth and business volume achieved in recent years. AWS’ multi-year compounded annual growth rate in the past five years has moderated to about 26%, while Azure’s is at the 40%-range and GCP at the high-30%-range.And while AWS remains the unmatched market leader by wide margins, the gap is gradually narrowing. Specifically, recent third-party data shows that spending intentions for Azure and GCP are on the rise, as corporates turn to a multi-cloud strategy for benefits that include “risk mitigation, reliability/redundancy, multi-function availability, and mostly importantly, cost-efficiencies”.Given AWS is already the dominant public cloud service vendor on the market, it is hard for it to take further advantage of increasing multi-cloud momentum. In a recent sentiment check survey performed by RBC Capital Markets, about 57% of corporates looking to ramp up investments in cloud have noted AWS as a potential beneficiary over the next 12 months, compared with 73% for GCP and 71% for Azure. AWS is also starting to lose share to key rival Azure amongst large enterprise cloud spending – the latter has taken over AWS as the leading public cloud service provider for enterprises generating more than $5 billion in annual revenues, acquiring more than 50% share in the cohort while AWS only captures a little more than 30%. And while AWS remains the market share leader in the largest cloud spending segments – namely, medium-sized enterprises with annual revenues spanning $1 billion and $5 billion, and small enterprises with annual revenues of less than $1 billion – rivals Azure and GCP are catching up fast. AWS currently commands about 60% of global cloud market share across medium-sized enterprises, while Azure accounts for more than 40%; and across small enterprises, AWS commands about a 40% share while Azure and GCP account for 30%.Implications of a Potential AWS SlowdownWhat these trends, paired with tempered expectations from management’s forward guidance provided, imply is that AWS is likely headed towards the beginning of moderation, with its high-flying growth coming to a gradual deceleration as it continues to take advantage of secular demand for cloud-computing solutions over coming years. Meanwhile, the rapid growth it once enjoyed will now likely rotate to peers as they benefit from the increasing adoption of a multi-cloud strategy across the corporate sector, effectively narrowing their respective market shares’ distance from AWS’.With AWS being Amazon’s core profit engine, the increasing pace of moderation will likely bode unfavourably for the stock’s near-term performance – especially as its core commerce segment also reels from souring consumer sentiment ahead of a cyclical downturn. This means whatever Amazon is doing now to improve its core commerce’s growth and profit margins – whether it is slashing budgets for non-profitable projects, dialing down the pace of fulfilment capacity expansion, slowing the pace of hiring, and/or improved value proposition to drive increased Prime demand – needs step it up a notch further, as AWS’ strength may not overshadow core commerce’s near-term weakness much longer to uphold Amazon’s valuation prospects.Looking ahead, these trends may also push investors to look for new areas of growth and profitability in the company – especially advertising, which represents another secular demand environment as digital ad formats rapidly displace traditional channels like linear TV, radio and paper. As discussed in our previous coverage on the stock, Amazon’s advertising business benefits greatly from its first-party data advantage, which reduces reliance on third-party user data that now faces “signal [loss] dynamics” stemming from Apple’s (AAPL)privacy policy changes implemented last year. The value of this competitive advantage is further corroborated by resilience and momentum demonstrated in Amazon’s advertising business (+30% y/y; +9% q/q) in the third quarter despite cautions advertiser spending ahead of a looming economic slowdown, which reinforces robust forward prospects. Recent market research has also echoed similarly favourable trends for Amazon’s growing advertising business, a high-margin revenue stream that will continue to contribute positively to the company’s bottom-line over the longer-term:Retail media advertising will increase from $31 billion this year to $42 billion in 2023. The bulk of it comes from Amazon’s product search but all other large retailers are now developing advertising sales through keyword search or display ads on their apps and websites. Retail media is mostly fuelled by consumer brands reallocating below-the-line, trade-marketing budgets from in-store towards digital retail networks, as a greater percentage of retail sales comes from e-commerce. Furthermore, retail-owned media networks are mostly immune from the privacy-based limitations on data usage and targeting, that display or social media owner’s face, because they can leverage their own first-party data.Source:Magna Advertising Forecast, U.S. Fall Update (September 2022)Final ThoughtsWe remain optimistic that Amazon will be able to maintain and restore strength to its core commerce moat, though the undertaking may take longer-than-expected given near-term macro headwinds beyond the company’s control. In the meantime, AWS will continue to be the core saviour of Amazon’s valuation. But considering it may not be able to hold onto the role much longer ahead of imminent deceleration, Amazon's stock might become more susceptible to further downtrends in tandem with the souring near-term market outlook. In the near- to medium-term, we believe investor expectations for core commerce improvements will increase despite anticipated consumer weakness to make up for potential deceleration in AWS, with more focus diverted towards momentum in Amazon’s ad sales, an emerging core profit engine. For now, Amazon's stock will likely become less protected from increasingly fragile market sentiment over coming months as expectations adjust, which could potentially create better entry opportunities for eventual upsides once consumer headwinds subside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986850481,"gmtCreate":1666926494044,"gmtModify":1676537832878,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No. Not a good buy to me.","listText":"No. Not a good buy to me.","text":"No. Not a good buy to me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986850481","repostId":"1100216928","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981674110,"gmtCreate":1666501219430,"gmtModify":1676537763235,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981674110","repostId":"2277553762","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277553762","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666483064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2277553762?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-23 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Watch These Retail Stocks to Defy Consumer Spending Worries and Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277553762","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The early round of earnings reports in the retail sector showed some pockets of consumer strength ev","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The early round of earnings reports in the retail sector showed some pockets of consumer strength even with forecasts for holiday spending being reeled in. The biggest pullout so far may be that travel spending is still very strong with American Airline (AAL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a> (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALK\">Alaska Air</a> Group (ALK) all pointing to strong booking trends into Q4 even with fares elevated.</p><p>While there are enough dizzying macro headwinds to be concerned about overall trends for retail giants like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a> (TGT), Walmart (WMT), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a> (COST) - Jefferies took on the question of where else outside of travel that consumer discretionary spending is looking surprisingly strong.</p><p>The firm&#39;s data picked up strong interest in offerings for McDonald&#39;s (NYSE:MCD), driven by the introduction of a limited-edition adult happy meal released through a partnership with the Cactus Plant Flea Market fashion brand. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YUM\">Yum</a> Brands&#39; (YUM) chains also saw an increase in website and social media interest that bodes well. Across the restaurant industry, analyst Andy Barish continues to expect demand to remain strong based off strong household balance sheets and analysis of same-store sales data across the fast food, fast casual and casual dining categories.</p><p>In the casino sector, the Jefferies scan of Internet data indicated strong momentum for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RRR\">Red Rock Resorts</a> (RRR) in particular. Analyst Cassandra Lee&#39;s bullish thesis on RRR is based on the company&#39;s positioning in the local Las Vegas market, which is seeing population growth ahead of the U.S. average.</p><p>A standout in the leisure sector is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BC\">Brunswick</a> (BC) based on tracking from Jefferies on social media trends. Analyst Anna Glaessgen thinks Brunswick (BC) has continued to benefit from a younger, digitally active customer base becoming more involved in boating. BC is expected to continue to grab leisure wallet share as it brings in new customers.</p><p>Jefferies also dug out an interesting trend with consumer staples. The new Downy Rinse and Refresh capture product launch has appeared to capture consumer interest with strong search and web traffic rolling in for Procter &amp; Gamble (PG). Analyst Kevin Grundy also pointed to high web traffic for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate-Palmolive</a> (CL), which has continued to show momentum in its personal care portfolio.</p><p>As for food trends, Jefferies pointed to elevated web traffic for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">McCormick</a> &amp; Company (MKC) and Conagra (CAG), with the latter&#39;s boost seen being tied to the release of new varieties of sunflower seeds and pudding cups in partnership with popular brands Frank’s RedHot, Starburst, Fruity Pebbles and Cinnabon.</p><p>Other companies that have seen a notable increase in web traffic and social media interest includes <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIND\">Lindblad Expeditions</a> (LIND), PriceSmart (PSMT), Denny&#39;s (DENN), and e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), Carter&#39;s (CRI), which may be benefiting from trade-down spending patterns with consumers.</p><p>See a list of the top consumer discretionary stocks by Seeking Alpha Quant Rating.</p><p>See a product or company that appears poised to take off? Add your own consumer discretionary sleeper to the comment stream.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Watch These Retail Stocks to Defy Consumer Spending Worries and Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWatch These Retail Stocks to Defy Consumer Spending Worries and Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-23 07:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3893894-watch-these-retail-stocks-to-defy-consumer-spending-worries-and-outperform><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The early round of earnings reports in the retail sector showed some pockets of consumer strength even with forecasts for holiday spending being reeled in. The biggest pullout so far may be that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3893894-watch-these-retail-stocks-to-defy-consumer-spending-worries-and-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TGT":"塔吉特","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3893894-watch-these-retail-stocks-to-defy-consumer-spending-worries-and-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2277553762","content_text":"The early round of earnings reports in the retail sector showed some pockets of consumer strength even with forecasts for holiday spending being reeled in. The biggest pullout so far may be that travel spending is still very strong with American Airline (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) all pointing to strong booking trends into Q4 even with fares elevated.While there are enough dizzying macro headwinds to be concerned about overall trends for retail giants like Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT), and Costco (COST) - Jefferies took on the question of where else outside of travel that consumer discretionary spending is looking surprisingly strong.The firm's data picked up strong interest in offerings for McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), driven by the introduction of a limited-edition adult happy meal released through a partnership with the Cactus Plant Flea Market fashion brand. Yum Brands' (YUM) chains also saw an increase in website and social media interest that bodes well. Across the restaurant industry, analyst Andy Barish continues to expect demand to remain strong based off strong household balance sheets and analysis of same-store sales data across the fast food, fast casual and casual dining categories.In the casino sector, the Jefferies scan of Internet data indicated strong momentum for Red Rock Resorts (RRR) in particular. Analyst Cassandra Lee's bullish thesis on RRR is based on the company's positioning in the local Las Vegas market, which is seeing population growth ahead of the U.S. average.A standout in the leisure sector is Brunswick (BC) based on tracking from Jefferies on social media trends. Analyst Anna Glaessgen thinks Brunswick (BC) has continued to benefit from a younger, digitally active customer base becoming more involved in boating. BC is expected to continue to grab leisure wallet share as it brings in new customers.Jefferies also dug out an interesting trend with consumer staples. The new Downy Rinse and Refresh capture product launch has appeared to capture consumer interest with strong search and web traffic rolling in for Procter & Gamble (PG). Analyst Kevin Grundy also pointed to high web traffic for Colgate-Palmolive (CL), which has continued to show momentum in its personal care portfolio.As for food trends, Jefferies pointed to elevated web traffic for McCormick & Company (MKC) and Conagra (CAG), with the latter's boost seen being tied to the release of new varieties of sunflower seeds and pudding cups in partnership with popular brands Frank’s RedHot, Starburst, Fruity Pebbles and Cinnabon.Other companies that have seen a notable increase in web traffic and social media interest includes Lindblad Expeditions (LIND), PriceSmart (PSMT), Denny's (DENN), and e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), Carter's (CRI), which may be benefiting from trade-down spending patterns with consumers.See a list of the top consumer discretionary stocks by Seeking Alpha Quant Rating.See a product or company that appears poised to take off? Add your own consumer discretionary sleeper to the comment stream.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981908649,"gmtCreate":1666361727881,"gmtModify":1676537747043,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you.","listText":"Thank you.","text":"Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981908649","repostId":"1159307696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307696","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666357343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159307696?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-21 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307696","media":"the wall street journal","summary":"Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d07ae19b8a41ea508df3b12af3225169\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December.</p><p>“We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting,” Fed governorChristopher Wallersaid in a speech earlier this month.</p><p>Some officials have begun signalingtheir desire both to slow down the pace of increases soon and to stop raising rates early next year to see how their moves this year are slowing the economy. They want to reduce the risk of causing an unnecessarily sharp slowdown. Others have said it is too soon for those discussions becausehigh inflationis proving to be more persistent and broad.</p><p>The Fedhas raised its benchmark federal-funds rateby 0.75 point at each of its past three meetings, most recently in September, bringing the rate to a range between 3% and 3.25%. Officials are raising rates at the most aggressive pace since the early 1980s. Until June, they hadn’t raised rates by 0.75 point since 1994.</p><p>Fed officials want higher borrowing costs and lower asset prices to slow economic activity by curbing spending, hiring and investment. They expect that to reduce demand and lower inflation over time.</p><p>Fed policy makers face a series of decisions. First, do they raise rates by a smaller half-point increment in December? And if so, how do they explain to the public that they aren’t backing down in their fight to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched?</p><p>Markets rallied in July and August on expectations that the Fed might slow rate rises. That conflicted with the central bank’s goals because easier financial conditions stimulate spending and economic growth. The rally prompted Fed ChairmanJerome Powellto redraft a major speech in late August to disabuse investors of any misperceptions about hisinflation-fighting commitment.</p><p>If officials are entertaining a half-point rate rise in December, they would want to prepare investors for that decision in the weeks after their Nov. 1-2 meeting without prompting another sustained rally.</p><p>One possible solution would be for Fed officials to approve a half-point increase in December, while using their new economic projections to show they might lift rates somewhat higher in 2023 than they projected last month.</p><p>The Fed’s policies work through financial markets. Changes to the anticipated trajectory of rates—and not just what the Fed does at any meeting—can influence broader financial conditions.</p><p>Cleveland Fed PresidentLoretta Mesterhas signaled she would favor rate rises of 0.75 point at each of the Fed’s next two meetings because there hasn’t been progress on inflation. “We can’t let wishful thinking drive our policy decisions,” she said on Oct. 6.</p><p>Some officials have said they want to see proof that inflation is falling before easing up on rate increases. “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% by the end of the year,” said Philadelphia Fed PresidentPatrick Harkerin remarks Thursday in Vineland, N.J.</p><p>Meanwhile, Fed Vice ChairwomanLael Brainardand some other officials have recently hinted at unease with raising rates by 0.75 point beyond next month’s meeting. In a speech on Oct. 10, Ms. Brainard laid out a case for pausing rate rises at some point, noting how they influence the economy over time.</p><p>Other colleagues are concerned about the danger of raising rates too high. Chicago Fed PresidentCharles Evanstold reporters on Oct. 10 he was worried about assumptions that the Fed could just cut rates if it decided they were too high. Promptly lowering rates is always easier in theory than in practice, he said.</p><p>Mr. Evans said he would prefer to find a rate level that restricted economic growth enough to lower inflation and hold it there even if the Fed faced “a few not-so-great reports” on inflation.</p><p>“I worry that if the way you judge it is, ‘Oh, another bad inflation report—it must be that we need more [rate hikes],’… that puts us at somewhat greater risk of responding overly aggressive,” he said.</p><p>Kansas City Fed PresidentEsther Georgealso last week said she favored moving “steadier and slower” on rate increases. “A series of very super-sized rate increases might cause you to oversteer and not be able to see those turning points,” she said in a webinar on Oct. 14.</p><p>The ultimate result is likely to come down to what Mr. Powell decides as he seeks to fashion a consensus.</p><p>Officials will have two more months of several widely watched economic indicators before their meeting in mid-December, including on hiring and inflation. They pay close attention to a detailed measure of worker compensation called the employment-cost index, and the Labor Department report covering the July-to-September quarter is set for release on Oct. 28.</p><p>One challenge is that some of the strongest support for slowing down increases comes from so-called policy doves, who have traditionally favored easier monetary policy. Last year, those officials argued most forcefully for waiting to remove stimulus policies. Now, with inflation running near a four-decade high, it could be harder for their arguments to gain traction, saidNeil Dutta, an economist at research firm Renaissance Macro.</p><p>“At critical junctures in the monetary-policy decision-making process, they’ve been spectacularly wrong,” said Mr. Dutta. “The doves are in the penalty box. There are costs to being wrong at key turning points over the last 18 to 24 months.”</p><p>Another concern is that inflation pressures have broadened despite some signs of potential relief. Commodity prices have fallen this summer. Easing supply-chain bottlenecks could lead to deceleration in goods prices, and thehousing market is entering a deep slump.</p><p>But astrong labor marketcould lead to persistent wage growth thatboosts prices in the labor-intensive services sector.That could keep prices rising on everything from haircuts to car repairs to veterinarian visits.</p><p>“The problem for me with trying to say, ‘Hey, it’s time to pause,’ is we’re not even sure that we’ve got rates high enough to push services inflation down,” Minneapolis Fed PresidentNeel Kashkarisaid Tuesday.</p><p>Investors in interest-rate futures markets now expect the Fed to raise rates to 5% by the spring, according to CME Group. Last month, most officials projected lifting rates to at least 4.6% next year.</p><p>If officials decide to raise rates by 0.5 point, or 50 basis points, in December, they would have reason to worry about triggering another market rally, saidKathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “The equity market has been so eager to see pivots by the Fed,” she said. “Fed officials have to explain that 50 basis points is still a meaningful increase.”</p><p>Investors are anticipating a sequence of pivots, from a slowdown in rate rises to a stop in rate rises to rate cuts. “They keep jumping ahead to the last pivot, and we’re a long way from the Fed cutting rates,” said Ms. Bostjancic.</p><p>The July rally reversed part of an earlier run-up in mortgage rates, which in turn supported a rebound in the housing market. If another market rally erupted this fall, the Fed might have to raise rates more than anticipated to slow down the economy, saidJason Furman, a Harvard University economist who served as a top adviser to former President Obama.</p><p>“The last thing you want is…to raise rates even more to undo all that,” said Mr. Furman.</p></body></html>","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-21 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-raise-rates-by-0-75-point-and-debate-size-of-future-hikes-11666356757?mod=hp_lead_pos1><strong>the wall street journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-raise-rates-by-0-75-point-and-debate-size-of-future-hikes-11666356757?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-raise-rates-by-0-75-point-and-debate-size-of-future-hikes-11666356757?mod=hp_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307696","content_text":"Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December.“We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting,” Fed governorChristopher Wallersaid in a speech earlier this month.Some officials have begun signalingtheir desire both to slow down the pace of increases soon and to stop raising rates early next year to see how their moves this year are slowing the economy. They want to reduce the risk of causing an unnecessarily sharp slowdown. Others have said it is too soon for those discussions becausehigh inflationis proving to be more persistent and broad.The Fedhas raised its benchmark federal-funds rateby 0.75 point at each of its past three meetings, most recently in September, bringing the rate to a range between 3% and 3.25%. Officials are raising rates at the most aggressive pace since the early 1980s. Until June, they hadn’t raised rates by 0.75 point since 1994.Fed officials want higher borrowing costs and lower asset prices to slow economic activity by curbing spending, hiring and investment. They expect that to reduce demand and lower inflation over time.Fed policy makers face a series of decisions. First, do they raise rates by a smaller half-point increment in December? And if so, how do they explain to the public that they aren’t backing down in their fight to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched?Markets rallied in July and August on expectations that the Fed might slow rate rises. That conflicted with the central bank’s goals because easier financial conditions stimulate spending and economic growth. The rally prompted Fed ChairmanJerome Powellto redraft a major speech in late August to disabuse investors of any misperceptions about hisinflation-fighting commitment.If officials are entertaining a half-point rate rise in December, they would want to prepare investors for that decision in the weeks after their Nov. 1-2 meeting without prompting another sustained rally.One possible solution would be for Fed officials to approve a half-point increase in December, while using their new economic projections to show they might lift rates somewhat higher in 2023 than they projected last month.The Fed’s policies work through financial markets. Changes to the anticipated trajectory of rates—and not just what the Fed does at any meeting—can influence broader financial conditions.Cleveland Fed PresidentLoretta Mesterhas signaled she would favor rate rises of 0.75 point at each of the Fed’s next two meetings because there hasn’t been progress on inflation. “We can’t let wishful thinking drive our policy decisions,” she said on Oct. 6.Some officials have said they want to see proof that inflation is falling before easing up on rate increases. “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% by the end of the year,” said Philadelphia Fed PresidentPatrick Harkerin remarks Thursday in Vineland, N.J.Meanwhile, Fed Vice ChairwomanLael Brainardand some other officials have recently hinted at unease with raising rates by 0.75 point beyond next month’s meeting. In a speech on Oct. 10, Ms. Brainard laid out a case for pausing rate rises at some point, noting how they influence the economy over time.Other colleagues are concerned about the danger of raising rates too high. Chicago Fed PresidentCharles Evanstold reporters on Oct. 10 he was worried about assumptions that the Fed could just cut rates if it decided they were too high. Promptly lowering rates is always easier in theory than in practice, he said.Mr. Evans said he would prefer to find a rate level that restricted economic growth enough to lower inflation and hold it there even if the Fed faced “a few not-so-great reports” on inflation.“I worry that if the way you judge it is, ‘Oh, another bad inflation report—it must be that we need more [rate hikes],’… that puts us at somewhat greater risk of responding overly aggressive,” he said.Kansas City Fed PresidentEsther Georgealso last week said she favored moving “steadier and slower” on rate increases. “A series of very super-sized rate increases might cause you to oversteer and not be able to see those turning points,” she said in a webinar on Oct. 14.The ultimate result is likely to come down to what Mr. Powell decides as he seeks to fashion a consensus.Officials will have two more months of several widely watched economic indicators before their meeting in mid-December, including on hiring and inflation. They pay close attention to a detailed measure of worker compensation called the employment-cost index, and the Labor Department report covering the July-to-September quarter is set for release on Oct. 28.One challenge is that some of the strongest support for slowing down increases comes from so-called policy doves, who have traditionally favored easier monetary policy. Last year, those officials argued most forcefully for waiting to remove stimulus policies. Now, with inflation running near a four-decade high, it could be harder for their arguments to gain traction, saidNeil Dutta, an economist at research firm Renaissance Macro.“At critical junctures in the monetary-policy decision-making process, they’ve been spectacularly wrong,” said Mr. Dutta. “The doves are in the penalty box. There are costs to being wrong at key turning points over the last 18 to 24 months.”Another concern is that inflation pressures have broadened despite some signs of potential relief. Commodity prices have fallen this summer. Easing supply-chain bottlenecks could lead to deceleration in goods prices, and thehousing market is entering a deep slump.But astrong labor marketcould lead to persistent wage growth thatboosts prices in the labor-intensive services sector.That could keep prices rising on everything from haircuts to car repairs to veterinarian visits.“The problem for me with trying to say, ‘Hey, it’s time to pause,’ is we’re not even sure that we’ve got rates high enough to push services inflation down,” Minneapolis Fed PresidentNeel Kashkarisaid Tuesday.Investors in interest-rate futures markets now expect the Fed to raise rates to 5% by the spring, according to CME Group. Last month, most officials projected lifting rates to at least 4.6% next year.If officials decide to raise rates by 0.5 point, or 50 basis points, in December, they would have reason to worry about triggering another market rally, saidKathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “The equity market has been so eager to see pivots by the Fed,” she said. “Fed officials have to explain that 50 basis points is still a meaningful increase.”Investors are anticipating a sequence of pivots, from a slowdown in rate rises to a stop in rate rises to rate cuts. “They keep jumping ahead to the last pivot, and we’re a long way from the Fed cutting rates,” said Ms. Bostjancic.The July rally reversed part of an earlier run-up in mortgage rates, which in turn supported a rebound in the housing market. If another market rally erupted this fall, the Fed might have to raise rates more than anticipated to slow down the economy, saidJason Furman, a Harvard University economist who served as a top adviser to former President Obama.“The last thing you want is…to raise rates even more to undo all that,” said Mr. Furman.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983564739,"gmtCreate":1666278460121,"gmtModify":1676537734708,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least she stepped down gracefully and not authoritarianly.","listText":"At least she stepped down gracefully and not authoritarianly.","text":"At least she stepped down gracefully and not authoritarianly.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983564739","repostId":"1198288029","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198288029","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666269424,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198288029?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-20 20:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Truss Resigns as UK Premier After Tax-Cut Plan Backfires","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198288029","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Stint in office characterized by market rout and U-TurnsTruss becomes UK’s shortest-ruling premier i","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Stint in office characterized by market rout and U-Turns</li><li>Truss becomes UK’s shortest-ruling premier in history</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/616f11adf6ae2802c5cbc9c6317b61b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Liz Truss quit as UK prime minister after a brief and chaotic tenure that saw her announce a massive package of tax cuts before unwinding most of it in the face of a market rout.</p><p>Truss, 47, said she was resigning after just 44 days in office, and is set to become the shortest-ruling prime minister in British history. She said the Conservative Party aims to choose her successor within a week, and that she will stay on as premier until then.</p><p>Candidates to replace her are likely to include former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak -- runner-up to Truss in this summer’s leadership contest. Other contenders then are also likely to be in the fray, including Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Kemi Badenoch. Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who was sacked on Oct. 19, may also be in the running. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is also often touted, though he has downplayed his interest.</p><p>But new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, promoted from the back benches after Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng in a bid to restore calm in the markets, ruled himself out, according to his spokeswoman.</p><p>Truss came to power in early September promising an all-out push for growth, but her program proved unpalatable to financial markets as both the pound and gilts tanked amid concerns about how she’d pay for her economic plans.</p><p>Her departure leaves the ruling Conservative Party badly damaged, languishing more than 30 points behind Labour inthe pollsafter 12 1/2 years in power. Her successor will become the party’s fifth premier in less than seven years since the 2016 Brexit referendum ushered in a period of unprecedented chaos in British politics.</p><p>Whoever it is will face a formidable task in repairing the Tory party’s reputation and the economy in time for a general election which must take place in January 2025. Truss’s tenure has all but guaranteed post-Brexit Britain’s immediate future is one of higher borrowing costs, weak growth, tax hikes and spending cuts.</p><p>“It’s a shambles and a disgrace,” veteran Tory MP Charles Walker told the BBC on Oct. 19. “The damage they have done to our party is extraordinary.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44667704a5311e8a60ce926ecefab1e3\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Truss’s undoing was ultimately a lack of political instinct and awareness of economic reality.</p><p>After narrowly winning the leadership without the backing of most MPs, she set out to govern as if she had secured an overwhelming mandate with a barrage of radical measures. Inheriting a divided party, she appointed loyalists to key jobs rather than reaching out to her opponents. And when, at the last, she tried to stamp her authority on the party, she only provoked its anger.</p><p>The central mistake of Truss’s term was a massive £45 billion ($50 billion) package of tax cuts, amid the strongest inflation in four decades, that she drew up with Kwarteng and unveiled without any independent analysis of how it would be funded.</p><p>The latest in global politicsGet insight from reporters around the world in the Balance of Power newsletter.Sign up to this newsletter</p><p>The biggest tax giveaway in half a century went further and faster than Truss had signaled during the leadership contest, and the markets reacted violently amid fears it would hamper the battle against inflation and destabilize the public finances. The pound’s tumble to an all-time low against the dollar and the imminent threat of a rout in gilts forced the Bank of England to intervene to prevent a key part of the pensions industry from collapsing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2461bf95e6c4f2853566b6c30f815768\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Truss and Kwarteng tried to repair the damage by firstreversingan unpopular move to abolish the 45% rate of income tax on the UK’s highest earners. Then on Oct. 14 TrusssackedKwarteng and scrapped their plan to freeze corporation tax next year. Huntunpickedmost of what remained of the economic strategy three days later, leaving the premier’s credibility shot.</p><p>The final humiliation came on Wednesday evening as the desperate prime minister tried to corral her angry MPs into the voting lobbies in the House of Commons for a make-or-break ballot that she had no reason to take on. Braverman’s dismissal earlier in the evening for a security breach that in normal times might have earned her a mere reprimand had already alienated a swathe of the right of the party.</p><p>Truss won the vote, but in the bitter aftermath she lost her struggle to stay in power.</p><h2>Liz Truss’s speech in full:</h2><blockquote>“I came into office at a time of great economic and international instability. Families and businesses were worried about how to pay their bills. Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine threatens the security of our whole continent. And our country has been held back for too long by low economic growth.</blockquote><blockquote>“I was elected by the Conservative Party with a mandate to change this. We delivered on energy bills and on cutting national insurance. And we set out a vision for a low tax high growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit.I recognize though given the situation I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party. I have therefore spoken to His Majesty the King to notify him that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party.</blockquote><blockquote>“This morning I met the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady. We’ve agreed that there will be a leadership election to be completed within the next week. This will ensure that we remain on a path to deliver our fiscal plans and maintain our country’s economic stability and national security. I will remain as Prime Minister until a successor has been chosen. Thank you.”</blockquote></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Truss Resigns as UK Premier After Tax-Cut Plan Backfires</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTruss Resigns as UK Premier After Tax-Cut Plan Backfires\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-20 20:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-to-announce-resignation-sky-news><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stint in office characterized by market rout and U-TurnsTruss becomes UK’s shortest-ruling premier in historyLiz Truss quit as UK prime minister after a brief and chaotic tenure that saw her announce ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-to-announce-resignation-sky-news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-to-announce-resignation-sky-news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198288029","content_text":"Stint in office characterized by market rout and U-TurnsTruss becomes UK’s shortest-ruling premier in historyLiz Truss quit as UK prime minister after a brief and chaotic tenure that saw her announce a massive package of tax cuts before unwinding most of it in the face of a market rout.Truss, 47, said she was resigning after just 44 days in office, and is set to become the shortest-ruling prime minister in British history. She said the Conservative Party aims to choose her successor within a week, and that she will stay on as premier until then.Candidates to replace her are likely to include former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak -- runner-up to Truss in this summer’s leadership contest. Other contenders then are also likely to be in the fray, including Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Kemi Badenoch. Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who was sacked on Oct. 19, may also be in the running. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is also often touted, though he has downplayed his interest.But new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, promoted from the back benches after Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng in a bid to restore calm in the markets, ruled himself out, according to his spokeswoman.Truss came to power in early September promising an all-out push for growth, but her program proved unpalatable to financial markets as both the pound and gilts tanked amid concerns about how she’d pay for her economic plans.Her departure leaves the ruling Conservative Party badly damaged, languishing more than 30 points behind Labour inthe pollsafter 12 1/2 years in power. Her successor will become the party’s fifth premier in less than seven years since the 2016 Brexit referendum ushered in a period of unprecedented chaos in British politics.Whoever it is will face a formidable task in repairing the Tory party’s reputation and the economy in time for a general election which must take place in January 2025. Truss’s tenure has all but guaranteed post-Brexit Britain’s immediate future is one of higher borrowing costs, weak growth, tax hikes and spending cuts.“It’s a shambles and a disgrace,” veteran Tory MP Charles Walker told the BBC on Oct. 19. “The damage they have done to our party is extraordinary.”Truss’s undoing was ultimately a lack of political instinct and awareness of economic reality.After narrowly winning the leadership without the backing of most MPs, she set out to govern as if she had secured an overwhelming mandate with a barrage of radical measures. Inheriting a divided party, she appointed loyalists to key jobs rather than reaching out to her opponents. And when, at the last, she tried to stamp her authority on the party, she only provoked its anger.The central mistake of Truss’s term was a massive £45 billion ($50 billion) package of tax cuts, amid the strongest inflation in four decades, that she drew up with Kwarteng and unveiled without any independent analysis of how it would be funded.The latest in global politicsGet insight from reporters around the world in the Balance of Power newsletter.Sign up to this newsletterThe biggest tax giveaway in half a century went further and faster than Truss had signaled during the leadership contest, and the markets reacted violently amid fears it would hamper the battle against inflation and destabilize the public finances. The pound’s tumble to an all-time low against the dollar and the imminent threat of a rout in gilts forced the Bank of England to intervene to prevent a key part of the pensions industry from collapsing.Truss and Kwarteng tried to repair the damage by firstreversingan unpopular move to abolish the 45% rate of income tax on the UK’s highest earners. Then on Oct. 14 TrusssackedKwarteng and scrapped their plan to freeze corporation tax next year. Huntunpickedmost of what remained of the economic strategy three days later, leaving the premier’s credibility shot.The final humiliation came on Wednesday evening as the desperate prime minister tried to corral her angry MPs into the voting lobbies in the House of Commons for a make-or-break ballot that she had no reason to take on. Braverman’s dismissal earlier in the evening for a security breach that in normal times might have earned her a mere reprimand had already alienated a swathe of the right of the party.Truss won the vote, but in the bitter aftermath she lost her struggle to stay in power.Liz Truss’s speech in full:“I came into office at a time of great economic and international instability. Families and businesses were worried about how to pay their bills. Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine threatens the security of our whole continent. And our country has been held back for too long by low economic growth.“I was elected by the Conservative Party with a mandate to change this. We delivered on energy bills and on cutting national insurance. And we set out a vision for a low tax high growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit.I recognize though given the situation I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party. I have therefore spoken to His Majesty the King to notify him that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party.“This morning I met the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady. We’ve agreed that there will be a leadership election to be completed within the next week. This will ensure that we remain on a path to deliver our fiscal plans and maintain our country’s economic stability and national security. I will remain as Prime Minister until a successor has been chosen. Thank you.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983312750,"gmtCreate":1666149828470,"gmtModify":1676537714436,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you for your information.&nbsp;","listText":"Thank you for your information.&nbsp;","text":"Thank you for your information.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983312750","repostId":"1129905097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983312553,"gmtCreate":1666149801373,"gmtModify":1676537714429,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983312553","repostId":"1163149585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163149585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666188491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163149585?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163149585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. B","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021&#39;s free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?</li><li>2021 was &#34;peak everything&#34; for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple&#39;s products being a key bellwether.</li><li>Apple&#39;s U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.</li><li>Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.</li><li>While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.</li></ul><p>Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple&#39;s stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74fbc6467060e07ea0d8b8477c0a63f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>The Pandemic Didn&#39;t Fundamentally Change Apple&#39;s Business</h3><p>Of course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple&#39;s income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.</p><p>Apple&#39;s share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.</p><p>EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.</p><p>And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).</p><p>When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.</p><p>Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple&#39;s buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!</p><p>It&#39;s strange when you think about it, but Apple&#39;s story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth &gt; EPS Growth&gt; Net Income Growth&gt; EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.</p><p>If you&#39;re buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple&#39;s business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don&#39;t see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That&#39;s tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple&#39;s.</p><p>But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple&#39;s earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.</p><h3>What To Expect From Apple&#39;s Earnings: Not Sustainable</h3><p>Apple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple&#39;s report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there&#39;s no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple&#39;s prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That&#39;s not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year&#39;s earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&amp;P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.</p><p>This wouldn&#39;t be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don&#39;t think there&#39;s much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There&#39;s also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple&#39;s US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL&#39;s earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that&#39;s another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.</p><h3>Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And Noise</h3><p>There&#39;s a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people&#39;s guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren&#39;t so different. Research shows companies that have the world&#39;s largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.</p><p>Apple is the world&#39;s most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can&#39;t justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don&#39;t be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you&#39;ll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.</p><h3>Bottom Line</h3><p>For a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha&#39;s quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple&#39;s growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-19 22:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163149585","content_text":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?2021 was \"peak everything\" for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple's products being a key bellwether.Apple's U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple's stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.Data by YChartsThe Pandemic Didn't Fundamentally Change Apple's BusinessOf course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple's income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.Apple's share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple's buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!It's strange when you think about it, but Apple's story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth > EPS Growth> Net Income Growth> EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.If you're buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple's business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don't see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That's tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple's.But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple's earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed's interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.What To Expect From Apple's Earnings: Not SustainableApple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple's report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there's no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple's prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That's not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year's earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.This wouldn't be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don't think there's much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There's also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple's US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL's earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that's another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And NoiseThere's a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people's guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren't so different. Research shows companies that have the world's largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.Apple is the world's most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can't justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don't be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you'll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.Bottom LineFor a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha's quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple's growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983311962,"gmtCreate":1666149467457,"gmtModify":1676537714314,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you for your info.","listText":"Thank you for your info.","text":"Thank you for your info.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983311962","repostId":"1163149585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163149585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666188491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163149585?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163149585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. B","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021&#39;s free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?</li><li>2021 was &#34;peak everything&#34; for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple&#39;s products being a key bellwether.</li><li>Apple&#39;s U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.</li><li>Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.</li><li>While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.</li></ul><p>Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple&#39;s stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74fbc6467060e07ea0d8b8477c0a63f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>The Pandemic Didn&#39;t Fundamentally Change Apple&#39;s Business</h3><p>Of course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple&#39;s income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.</p><p>Apple&#39;s share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.</p><p>EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.</p><p>And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).</p><p>When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.</p><p>Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple&#39;s buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!</p><p>It&#39;s strange when you think about it, but Apple&#39;s story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth &gt; EPS Growth&gt; Net Income Growth&gt; EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.</p><p>If you&#39;re buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple&#39;s business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don&#39;t see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That&#39;s tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple&#39;s.</p><p>But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple&#39;s earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.</p><h3>What To Expect From Apple&#39;s Earnings: Not Sustainable</h3><p>Apple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple&#39;s report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there&#39;s no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple&#39;s prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That&#39;s not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year&#39;s earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&amp;P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.</p><p>This wouldn&#39;t be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don&#39;t think there&#39;s much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There&#39;s also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple&#39;s US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL&#39;s earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that&#39;s another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.</p><h3>Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And Noise</h3><p>There&#39;s a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people&#39;s guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren&#39;t so different. Research shows companies that have the world&#39;s largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.</p><p>Apple is the world&#39;s most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can&#39;t justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don&#39;t be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you&#39;ll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.</p><h3>Bottom Line</h3><p>For a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha&#39;s quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple&#39;s growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-19 22:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163149585","content_text":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?2021 was \"peak everything\" for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple's products being a key bellwether.Apple's U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple's stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.Data by YChartsThe Pandemic Didn't Fundamentally Change Apple's BusinessOf course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple's income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.Apple's share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple's buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!It's strange when you think about it, but Apple's story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth > EPS Growth> Net Income Growth> EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.If you're buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple's business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don't see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That's tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple's.But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple's earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed's interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.What To Expect From Apple's Earnings: Not SustainableApple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple's report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there's no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple's prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That's not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year's earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.This wouldn't be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don't think there's much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There's also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple's US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL's earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that's another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And NoiseThere's a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people's guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren't so different. Research shows companies that have the world's largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.Apple is the world's most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can't justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don't be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you'll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.Bottom LineFor a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha's quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple's growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989882424,"gmtCreate":1665969259069,"gmtModify":1676537684561,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you.","listText":"Thank you.","text":"Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989882424","repostId":"1117715251","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989882319,"gmtCreate":1665969213331,"gmtModify":1676537684546,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you.","listText":"Thank you.","text":"Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989882319","repostId":"1117715251","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989886523,"gmtCreate":1665969172462,"gmtModify":1676537684531,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989886523","repostId":"2275965539","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2275965539","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665964789,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2275965539?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google: Buy This Stock When the Market Pukes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275965539","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Stalwart, blue-chip, US stock market juggernaut, and Google parent, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:G","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stalwart, blue-chip, US stock market juggernaut, and Google parent, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), made a new 52-week low this week. This is a company that has over 10% revenue growth, a seemingly insurmountable ecosystem and moat, and now trades at only 10 times forward EV to EBITDA. In this report, we review Google&#39;s business model, revenue growth drivers, capital allocation, current valuation and big risks. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.</p><h2><b>Overview</b>: Google&#39;s Business</h2><p>Google breaks its business down into three operating segments, and if you don&#39;t know &#34;Google Service&#34; (which is basically advertising) generates the lion&#39;s share of the revenue and basically all of the profits, as you can see in the following 10-Q excerpts.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d76f44f1fe8f8c2ff601f6c0566d880\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Alphabet 10-Q</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/620c61d0f878a918aaac248e9721af18\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"258\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Alphabet 10-Q</span></p><p>For your information, and to be specific, Google defines its three operating segments as follows:</p><ul><li><p><b>Google Services</b>: includes products and services such as ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Google Services generates revenues primarily from advertising; sales of apps and in-app purchases, digital content products, and hardware; and fees received for subscription-based products such as YouTube Premium and YouTube TV.</p></li><li><p><b>Google Cloud</b>: includes Google&#39;s infrastructure and platform services, collaboration tools, and other services for enterprise customers. Google Cloud generates revenues from fees received for Google Cloud Platform services, Google Workspace collaboration tools, and other enterprise services.</p></li><li><p><b>Other Bets</b>: is a combination of multiple operating segments that are not individually material. Revenues from Other Bets are generated primarily from the sale of health technology and internet services.</p></li></ul><p>And to be clear, advertising has been the main source of revenue for years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21f52cfb72cb2bf8696e84d76bc1e2c\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Statista</span></p><h2>Revenue Growth and Competitive Advantages</h2><p>Google&#39;s massive revenues (see above) are expected to keep growing rapidly, as you can see in the following chart.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cf0d378d33a9ce4add079775bd9669\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>More specifically, forward revenue estimates project a double-digit growth rate and a double-digit EBITDA growth rate. These are powerful growth rates (especially for a massive $1+ trillion company) and they are driven by the massive secular trends of digitization, cloud migration and smart device usage (which are still be in the early innings of growth).</p><p>And to give you some perspective on Google&#39;s massive ecosystem (which is basically the driver of its competitive moat versus competitors) here are a few key points to consider, by operating segment:</p><p><b>Google Services (Advertising) Segment</b>: According to IDC, Google&#39;s Android operating system is behind more than 70% of smartphones in the world, as compared to Apple iOS (AAPL) at ~27%. This is so important because, according to Wikipedia:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Most Android devices ship with additional proprietary software pre-installed most notably Google Mobile Services which includes core apps such as Google Chrome, the digital distribution platform Google Play, and associated Google Play Services development platform.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>This gives Google a massive competitive advantage in gathering information about users that is extremely valuable to advertisers (i.e. Google&#39;s biggest operating segment).</p><p>Further, more than 90% of global searches are conducted through Google, thereby giving the company access to enormous data valuable to advertisers. Also (per StatCounter), Google&#39;s Chrome browser remains the market leader with roughly two-thirds of total market share as compared to 19% for Apple&#39;s Safari and 4% for Microsoft&#39;s Edge (MSFT). And further still, the success of Google&#39;s YouTube&#39;s continues to grow as its contributions to the top and bottom line continue to improve.</p><p><b>Google Cloud Services</b> has been growing (even faster than Google Services), and is expected to keep growing as the global digital revolution and cloud migration are still just getting started. Google has some strong advantages in this area (stemming from its many years of internal cloud development), however Google Cloud is still the number three player behind Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d49ee52b90c60c86fd969c15441f6f\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Statista</span></p><p>We expect Google Cloud to keep growing rapidly (which is a good thing) but not enough to overtake AWS or Azure (which are also growing rapidly and have a big head start on Google).</p><p><b>The Other Bets Segment</b> is constantly innovating with technology. And despite the fact that this segment is a loss leader (it makes no money) it could open massive opportunities down the road. For example, Google&#39;s autonomous vehicle technologies (i.e. Waymo) is a huge expense, but could open huge revenue opportunities many years down the road. Google&#39;s research efforts into smart homes (i.e. Nest) is another example of an expense now that could turn to profit many years down the road. Further still, the company&#39;s applications of machine learning may also expand and prove increasingly valuable.</p><h2><b>Capital Allocation and Investments</b></h2><p>Google is a high-margin and high-cash-flow business, and this allows it to do a lot of things right. For starters, the company&#39;s operating margin was recently 28% and its operating cash flow was $19.4 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2022 (also nearly 28%).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d7fb3e368a9614a4f2d57013b3927e\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Alphabet 10-Q</span></p><p>With regards to long-term debt, Google has relatively very little at around $12.8 billion versus $125 billion in cash (and equivalents) on its balance sheet. The leverage ratio is very low, and to a significant extent, this isolates Google from the increasing costs of financing growth that other companies (with high debt and less cash flow) face due to rising interest rates.</p><p>Google&#39;s strong balance sheet position allows it to invest heavily in research (its R&amp;D margin as a percent of revenue is ~12.7%, truly incredible considering the size of Google&#39;s revenue). The company is also well positioned to continue its history of successful acquisitions (especially now that the market is down) such as its previous acquisitions of YouTube, DoubleClick, Android and Fitbit.</p><p>Further still, Google has continued to return cash to shareholders through buybacks ($18 billion in 2019, $31 billion in 2020, and $50 billion in 2021). And in April 2022, it authorized another $70 billion for share buybacks. And you can even make the case that Google has been setting itself up to start paying a dividend to shareholders in the future. For example, here is what Morningstar Senior Equity Analyst, Ali Mogharabi, had to say about it in a July 2022 research note:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;In late 2015, Alphabet became a holding company, with Google one of its wholly owned subsidiaries. Alphabet is also the parent company of other businesses, mostly moonshots, which are grouped into the other bets segment that includes Waymo. This structure has provided slightly more transparency to shareholders, as the company&#39;s mature cash-generating business, Google, is managed separately. In our opinion, such a move may indicate that management is considering some form of redistribution of cash generated by Google to shareholders a few years down the road.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Overall, Google has been a prudent allocator of capital and remains in an extremely strong cash position.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Google trades at around 10x forward EV to EBITDA, and this multiple could easily double given the company&#39;s strong growth (i.e. the valuation multiple is compressed).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cbfc8a4b4c1e8dcad3fb5cd0983fad0\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>YCharts</p><p>For perspective, here is the EV to EBITDA ratios for other companies with similarly high growth rates and strong margins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c373ec919afaf61974374756643c03ea\" tg-width=\"1031\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Stock Rover</p><p>And here are other large cap companies in the technology and communication services sectors, for comparison purposes.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cc47e3f74612b9907d44a0961fece2\" tg-width=\"1031\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Stock Rover</p><p>On these metrics, Google stands out as attractive, in our view. It also has one of the highest (most bullish) analyst ratings on the street, as you can see below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0779504e7546fdc6881b33e61a266d\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><h2>The Big Risks</h2><p>Of course the shares of Google can still fall further, considering the macroeconomic backdrop. For example, the Federal Reserve has essentially zero regard for the damage it is doing to the stock market this year by raising rates dramatically (after all, its dual mandate is focused on employment and inflation, not stocks). And as the Fed fights inflation, rates can still go much higher, and stocks can still fall much further. In fact, Google Trends shows searches for the term &#34;recession&#34; remain elevated (perhaps suggesting ongoing negative market confidence).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c33bb24b2eb023e2dc7dfd567ee8928\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Google Trends</p><p>Another risk is the unfriendly dual share class structure of Google that gives 51% of the voting rights to Larry Page (co-founder) and Sergey Brin (co-founder). These two can collectively make decisions that may or may not be in the best interest of shareholders.</p><p>Data privacy and censorship are a big risk to Google. On one hand, users have concerns over how their data is used and how little control they have over it. Further, concerns over censorship (including government-sanctioned censorship around the world) gives rise to additional complaints and lawsuits.</p><p>Antitrust concerns are also a risk factor. For example, companies, regulatory agencies and governments have challenged Google&#39;s biases as well as dominance (90% of global searches are conducted via Google) and this is an ongoing legal and brand risk for the company. Antitrust concerns could also limit Google&#39;s future acquisition aspirations that may arise.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Forward-looking investors recognized the macroeconomic risks months before the fed started taking inflation seriously. For example, many high-growth stocks started selling off particularly hard well before the Fed actually started rapidly increasing interest rates. And while many of these high-growth stocks deserved to sell off hard (as their valuations soared during the 0% interest rate bubble, while their earnings remained totally non-existent), Google is not one of them.</p><p>Rather, Google is a good example of a high-quality growth stock (with tremendous growth trajectory, a strong balance sheet, and powerful cash flows) that has been indiscriminately caught up in the recent growth-stock sell-off. In fact, it is one of the four highly compelling opportunities we highlight in our new report: &#34;When the Market Pukes: Buy These 4 Stocks in Buckets.&#34; Things can still get much worse before they get better, but in the long term we expect Google shares are going dramatically higher. We are currently long Google.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google: Buy This Stock When the Market Pukes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle: Buy This Stock When the Market Pukes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-17 07:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546659-google-stock-market-puking><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stalwart, blue-chip, US stock market juggernaut, and Google parent, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), made a new 52-week low this week. This is a company that has over 10% revenue growth, a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546659-google-stock-market-puking\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546659-google-stock-market-puking","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2275965539","content_text":"Stalwart, blue-chip, US stock market juggernaut, and Google parent, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), made a new 52-week low this week. This is a company that has over 10% revenue growth, a seemingly insurmountable ecosystem and moat, and now trades at only 10 times forward EV to EBITDA. In this report, we review Google's business model, revenue growth drivers, capital allocation, current valuation and big risks. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.Overview: Google's BusinessGoogle breaks its business down into three operating segments, and if you don't know \"Google Service\" (which is basically advertising) generates the lion's share of the revenue and basically all of the profits, as you can see in the following 10-Q excerpts.Alphabet 10-QAlphabet 10-QFor your information, and to be specific, Google defines its three operating segments as follows:Google Services: includes products and services such as ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Google Services generates revenues primarily from advertising; sales of apps and in-app purchases, digital content products, and hardware; and fees received for subscription-based products such as YouTube Premium and YouTube TV.Google Cloud: includes Google's infrastructure and platform services, collaboration tools, and other services for enterprise customers. Google Cloud generates revenues from fees received for Google Cloud Platform services, Google Workspace collaboration tools, and other enterprise services.Other Bets: is a combination of multiple operating segments that are not individually material. Revenues from Other Bets are generated primarily from the sale of health technology and internet services.And to be clear, advertising has been the main source of revenue for years.StatistaRevenue Growth and Competitive AdvantagesGoogle's massive revenues (see above) are expected to keep growing rapidly, as you can see in the following chart.Seeking AlphaMore specifically, forward revenue estimates project a double-digit growth rate and a double-digit EBITDA growth rate. These are powerful growth rates (especially for a massive $1+ trillion company) and they are driven by the massive secular trends of digitization, cloud migration and smart device usage (which are still be in the early innings of growth).And to give you some perspective on Google's massive ecosystem (which is basically the driver of its competitive moat versus competitors) here are a few key points to consider, by operating segment:Google Services (Advertising) Segment: According to IDC, Google's Android operating system is behind more than 70% of smartphones in the world, as compared to Apple iOS (AAPL) at ~27%. This is so important because, according to Wikipedia:\"Most Android devices ship with additional proprietary software pre-installed most notably Google Mobile Services which includes core apps such as Google Chrome, the digital distribution platform Google Play, and associated Google Play Services development platform.\"This gives Google a massive competitive advantage in gathering information about users that is extremely valuable to advertisers (i.e. Google's biggest operating segment).Further, more than 90% of global searches are conducted through Google, thereby giving the company access to enormous data valuable to advertisers. Also (per StatCounter), Google's Chrome browser remains the market leader with roughly two-thirds of total market share as compared to 19% for Apple's Safari and 4% for Microsoft's Edge (MSFT). And further still, the success of Google's YouTube's continues to grow as its contributions to the top and bottom line continue to improve.Google Cloud Services has been growing (even faster than Google Services), and is expected to keep growing as the global digital revolution and cloud migration are still just getting started. Google has some strong advantages in this area (stemming from its many years of internal cloud development), however Google Cloud is still the number three player behind Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure.StatistaWe expect Google Cloud to keep growing rapidly (which is a good thing) but not enough to overtake AWS or Azure (which are also growing rapidly and have a big head start on Google).The Other Bets Segment is constantly innovating with technology. And despite the fact that this segment is a loss leader (it makes no money) it could open massive opportunities down the road. For example, Google's autonomous vehicle technologies (i.e. Waymo) is a huge expense, but could open huge revenue opportunities many years down the road. Google's research efforts into smart homes (i.e. Nest) is another example of an expense now that could turn to profit many years down the road. Further still, the company's applications of machine learning may also expand and prove increasingly valuable.Capital Allocation and InvestmentsGoogle is a high-margin and high-cash-flow business, and this allows it to do a lot of things right. For starters, the company's operating margin was recently 28% and its operating cash flow was $19.4 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2022 (also nearly 28%).Alphabet 10-QWith regards to long-term debt, Google has relatively very little at around $12.8 billion versus $125 billion in cash (and equivalents) on its balance sheet. The leverage ratio is very low, and to a significant extent, this isolates Google from the increasing costs of financing growth that other companies (with high debt and less cash flow) face due to rising interest rates.Google's strong balance sheet position allows it to invest heavily in research (its R&D margin as a percent of revenue is ~12.7%, truly incredible considering the size of Google's revenue). The company is also well positioned to continue its history of successful acquisitions (especially now that the market is down) such as its previous acquisitions of YouTube, DoubleClick, Android and Fitbit.Further still, Google has continued to return cash to shareholders through buybacks ($18 billion in 2019, $31 billion in 2020, and $50 billion in 2021). And in April 2022, it authorized another $70 billion for share buybacks. And you can even make the case that Google has been setting itself up to start paying a dividend to shareholders in the future. For example, here is what Morningstar Senior Equity Analyst, Ali Mogharabi, had to say about it in a July 2022 research note:\"In late 2015, Alphabet became a holding company, with Google one of its wholly owned subsidiaries. Alphabet is also the parent company of other businesses, mostly moonshots, which are grouped into the other bets segment that includes Waymo. This structure has provided slightly more transparency to shareholders, as the company's mature cash-generating business, Google, is managed separately. In our opinion, such a move may indicate that management is considering some form of redistribution of cash generated by Google to shareholders a few years down the road.\"Overall, Google has been a prudent allocator of capital and remains in an extremely strong cash position.ValuationGoogle trades at around 10x forward EV to EBITDA, and this multiple could easily double given the company's strong growth (i.e. the valuation multiple is compressed).YChartsFor perspective, here is the EV to EBITDA ratios for other companies with similarly high growth rates and strong margins.Stock RoverAnd here are other large cap companies in the technology and communication services sectors, for comparison purposes.Stock RoverOn these metrics, Google stands out as attractive, in our view. It also has one of the highest (most bullish) analyst ratings on the street, as you can see below.Seeking AlphaThe Big RisksOf course the shares of Google can still fall further, considering the macroeconomic backdrop. For example, the Federal Reserve has essentially zero regard for the damage it is doing to the stock market this year by raising rates dramatically (after all, its dual mandate is focused on employment and inflation, not stocks). And as the Fed fights inflation, rates can still go much higher, and stocks can still fall much further. In fact, Google Trends shows searches for the term \"recession\" remain elevated (perhaps suggesting ongoing negative market confidence).Google TrendsAnother risk is the unfriendly dual share class structure of Google that gives 51% of the voting rights to Larry Page (co-founder) and Sergey Brin (co-founder). These two can collectively make decisions that may or may not be in the best interest of shareholders.Data privacy and censorship are a big risk to Google. On one hand, users have concerns over how their data is used and how little control they have over it. Further, concerns over censorship (including government-sanctioned censorship around the world) gives rise to additional complaints and lawsuits.Antitrust concerns are also a risk factor. For example, companies, regulatory agencies and governments have challenged Google's biases as well as dominance (90% of global searches are conducted via Google) and this is an ongoing legal and brand risk for the company. Antitrust concerns could also limit Google's future acquisition aspirations that may arise.ConclusionForward-looking investors recognized the macroeconomic risks months before the fed started taking inflation seriously. For example, many high-growth stocks started selling off particularly hard well before the Fed actually started rapidly increasing interest rates. And while many of these high-growth stocks deserved to sell off hard (as their valuations soared during the 0% interest rate bubble, while their earnings remained totally non-existent), Google is not one of them.Rather, Google is a good example of a high-quality growth stock (with tremendous growth trajectory, a strong balance sheet, and powerful cash flows) that has been indiscriminately caught up in the recent growth-stock sell-off. In fact, it is one of the four highly compelling opportunities we highlight in our new report: \"When the Market Pukes: Buy These 4 Stocks in Buckets.\" Things can still get much worse before they get better, but in the long term we expect Google shares are going dramatically higher. We are currently long Google.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989886233,"gmtCreate":1665969127522,"gmtModify":1676537684531,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989886233","repostId":"2276758809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2276758809","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1665946740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2276758809?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 02:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, Netflix Set to Report Earnings: What to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2276758809","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Third-quarter earnings season picks up this week, with more than 60 S&P 500 companies scheduled to r","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Third-quarter earnings season picks up this week, with more than 60 S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report. The economic calendar will bring a bevy of housing-market indicators and other data.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a> will be Monday&#39;s earnings highlights, followed by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>, Johnson &amp; Johnson, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> on Tuesday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Procter &amp; Gamble, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines Holdings, and Nestlé release results on Wednesday. Thursday will be busy: Blackstone, Dow, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group, AT&amp;T, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNP\">Union Pacific</a>, Snap, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAM\">Boston Beer</a> all report. Finally, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZA\">Verizon</a> Communications, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a> close the week on Friday.</p><p>Housing data out this week will include the National Association of Home Builders&#39; NAHB/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a> Housing Market Index for October on Tuesday, the Census Bureau&#39;s new residential construction data for September on Wednesday, and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLDW\">National</a> Association of Realtors&#39; existing-home sales for September on Thursday.</p><p>Other economic releases this week include the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest beige book on Wednesday and the Conference Board&#39;s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday.</p><p><b>Monday 10/17</b></p><p>Bank of America, Charles Schwab, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a> report third-quarter earnings.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October. Expectations are for a minus 2.5 reading, compared with minus 1.5 in September. Readings above zero represent economic expansion in the survey.</p><p><b>Tuesday 10/18</b></p><p>Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Albertsons, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAS\">Hasbro</a>, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Roche Holding, Goldman Sachs, Truist Financial, State Street, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OMC\">Omnicom</a> Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and Intuitive Surgical are among companies discussing financial results.</p><p>The Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for no change, after a 0.2% drop in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 79.9%, roughly in line with August&#39;s 80.0%.</p><p>The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October. Consensus estimate is for a 43.5 reading, compared with 46 in September. The index has dropped every month in 2022 from its 84 reading in December.</p><p><b>Wednesday 10/19</b></p><p>The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.480 million new housing starts, compared with 1.575 million in August.</p><p>IBM, Tesla, Procter &amp; Gamble, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRV\">Travelers</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFG\">Citizens Financial Group</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBCP\">United</a> Airlines Holdings, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust, Nestlé, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHGE\">Baker Hughes</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOM\">Ally Financial</a>, ASML Holding, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lam Research</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLD\">Prologis</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a> hold earnings calls with investors.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank releases its beige book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts.</p><p>Thursday 10/20</p><p>Blackstone, Dow, Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, KeyCorp, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAN\">ManpowerGroup</a>, Snap-On, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DHR\">Danaher</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> Airlines Group, AT&amp;T, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> International, Union Pacific, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DGX\">Quest Diagnostics</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPC\">Genuine Parts</a>, CSX, Snap, and Boston Beer hold earnings conference calls.</p><p>The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted 0.3% month-over-month decline, after a 0.3% drop in August.</p><p>The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million homes sold, compared with 4.80 million in August.</p><p>The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is released. Estimates call for a minus 5.0 reading in October, compared with minus 9.9 in September.</p><p>Friday 10/21</p><p>American Express, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WHR\">Whirlpool</a>, Regions Financial, HCA <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/THC\">Tenet Healthcare</a>, and Schlumberger hold earnings conference calls.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, Netflix Set to Report Earnings: What to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Netflix Set to Report Earnings: What to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-17 02:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Third-quarter earnings season picks up this week, with more than 60 S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report. The economic calendar will bring a bevy of housing-market indicators and other data.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a> will be Monday&#39;s earnings highlights, followed by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>, Johnson &amp; Johnson, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> on Tuesday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Procter &amp; Gamble, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines Holdings, and Nestlé release results on Wednesday. Thursday will be busy: Blackstone, Dow, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group, AT&amp;T, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNP\">Union Pacific</a>, Snap, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAM\">Boston Beer</a> all report. Finally, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZA\">Verizon</a> Communications, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a> close the week on Friday.</p><p>Housing data out this week will include the National Association of Home Builders&#39; NAHB/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a> Housing Market Index for October on Tuesday, the Census Bureau&#39;s new residential construction data for September on Wednesday, and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLDW\">National</a> Association of Realtors&#39; existing-home sales for September on Thursday.</p><p>Other economic releases this week include the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest beige book on Wednesday and the Conference Board&#39;s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday.</p><p><b>Monday 10/17</b></p><p>Bank of America, Charles Schwab, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a> report third-quarter earnings.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October. Expectations are for a minus 2.5 reading, compared with minus 1.5 in September. Readings above zero represent economic expansion in the survey.</p><p><b>Tuesday 10/18</b></p><p>Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Albertsons, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAS\">Hasbro</a>, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Roche Holding, Goldman Sachs, Truist Financial, State Street, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OMC\">Omnicom</a> Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and Intuitive Surgical are among companies discussing financial results.</p><p>The Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for no change, after a 0.2% drop in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 79.9%, roughly in line with August&#39;s 80.0%.</p><p>The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October. Consensus estimate is for a 43.5 reading, compared with 46 in September. The index has dropped every month in 2022 from its 84 reading in December.</p><p><b>Wednesday 10/19</b></p><p>The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.480 million new housing starts, compared with 1.575 million in August.</p><p>IBM, Tesla, Procter &amp; Gamble, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRV\">Travelers</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFG\">Citizens Financial Group</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBCP\">United</a> Airlines Holdings, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust, Nestlé, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHGE\">Baker Hughes</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOM\">Ally Financial</a>, ASML Holding, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lam Research</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLD\">Prologis</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a> hold earnings calls with investors.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank releases its beige book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts.</p><p>Thursday 10/20</p><p>Blackstone, Dow, Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, KeyCorp, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAN\">ManpowerGroup</a>, Snap-On, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DHR\">Danaher</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> Airlines Group, AT&amp;T, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> International, Union Pacific, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DGX\">Quest Diagnostics</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPC\">Genuine Parts</a>, CSX, Snap, and Boston Beer hold earnings conference calls.</p><p>The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted 0.3% month-over-month decline, after a 0.3% drop in August.</p><p>The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million homes sold, compared with 4.80 million in August.</p><p>The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is released. Estimates call for a minus 5.0 reading in October, compared with minus 9.9 in September.</p><p>Friday 10/21</p><p>American Express, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WHR\">Whirlpool</a>, Regions Financial, HCA <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/THC\">Tenet Healthcare</a>, and Schlumberger hold earnings conference calls.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4555":"新能源车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2276758809","content_text":"Third-quarter earnings season picks up this week, with more than 60 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. The economic calendar will bring a bevy of housing-market indicators and other data.Bank of America and Charles Schwab will be Monday's earnings highlights, followed by Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, and Intuitive Surgical on Tuesday.IBM, Tesla, Procter & Gamble, United Airlines Holdings, and Nestlé release results on Wednesday. Thursday will be busy: Blackstone, Dow, American Airlines Group, AT&T, Union Pacific, Snap, and Boston Beer all report. Finally, American Express, Verizon Communications, and Schlumberger close the week on Friday.Housing data out this week will include the National Association of Home Builders' NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October on Tuesday, the Census Bureau's new residential construction data for September on Wednesday, and the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales for September on Thursday.Other economic releases this week include the Federal Reserve's latest beige book on Wednesday and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday.Monday 10/17Bank of America, Charles Schwab, and Bank of New York Mellon report third-quarter earnings.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October. Expectations are for a minus 2.5 reading, compared with minus 1.5 in September. Readings above zero represent economic expansion in the survey.Tuesday 10/18Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Albertsons, Hasbro, Johnson & Johnson, Roche Holding, Goldman Sachs, Truist Financial, State Street, Interactive Brokers, Omnicom Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and Intuitive Surgical are among companies discussing financial results.The Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for no change, after a 0.2% drop in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 79.9%, roughly in line with August's 80.0%.The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October. Consensus estimate is for a 43.5 reading, compared with 46 in September. The index has dropped every month in 2022 from its 84 reading in December.Wednesday 10/19The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.480 million new housing starts, compared with 1.575 million in August.IBM, Tesla, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, Citizens Financial Group, United Airlines Holdings, Abbott Laboratories, Northern Trust, Nestlé, Nasdaq, Baker Hughes, Ally Financial, ASML Holding, Lam Research, Prologis, and Alcoa hold earnings calls with investors.The Federal Reserve Bank releases its beige book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts.Thursday 10/20Blackstone, Dow, Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, KeyCorp, ManpowerGroup, Snap-On, Danaher, American Airlines Group, AT&T, Philip Morris International, Union Pacific, Quest Diagnostics, Genuine Parts, CSX, Snap, and Boston Beer hold earnings conference calls.The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted 0.3% month-over-month decline, after a 0.3% drop in August.The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million homes sold, compared with 4.80 million in August.The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is released. Estimates call for a minus 5.0 reading in October, compared with minus 9.9 in September.Friday 10/21American Express, Whirlpool, Regions Financial, HCA Healthcare, Tenet Healthcare, and Schlumberger hold earnings conference calls.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980486312,"gmtCreate":1665796795037,"gmtModify":1676537665605,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980486312","repostId":"2275952060","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980488522,"gmtCreate":1665796752467,"gmtModify":1676537665590,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nah. It will continue to drop till at least next year.","listText":"Nah. It will continue to drop till at least next year.","text":"Nah. It will continue to drop till at least next year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980488522","repostId":"2275665189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980412476,"gmtCreate":1665795848395,"gmtModify":1676537665349,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125280586567492","authorIdStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nah. It will drop further till next year.","listText":"Nah. It will drop further till next year.","text":"Nah. It will drop further till next year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980412476","repostId":"2275665189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9986850481,"gmtCreate":1666926494044,"gmtModify":1676537832878,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No. Not a good buy to me.","listText":"No. Not a good buy to me.","text":"No. Not a good buy to me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986850481","repostId":"1100216928","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100216928","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666929303,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100216928?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-28 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple A Buy After FQ4 2022 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On Services","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100216928","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple has been a closely watched stock this earnings season as investors look to the consumer bellwether for hints of what's to come amid mounting macro uncertainties.The company posted upbeat ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple has been a closely watched stock this earnings season as investors look to the consumer bellwether for hints of what&#39;s to come amid mounting macro uncertainties.</li><li>The company posted upbeat third quarter results, mixed with tempered growth in core iPhone and Services sales.</li><li>Yet, the company&#39;s earnings beat and sustained 70%+ margins in Services despite lighter-than-expected growth continue to underscore the critical role of the segment for Apple.</li><li>While Apple stock&#39;s outperformance this year compared to the broader market and peers potentially increases its vulnerability to further volatility, its robust fundamentals continue to support the $3 trillion thesis.</li></ul><p>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has long been watched as the bellwether for consumer strength amid rising recession risks in recent months, and its latest resilience demonstrated in the September quarter with a double beat, paired with positive commentary on the business&#39;s strengths, sets a positive tone for fiscal 2023 despite looming macro uncertainties.</p><p>Apple&#39;s September-quarter results suggest that affluent spend on premium products remains resilient, despite risks of overall consumer confidence deterioration in the near term with buckling budgets amid rising interest rates and inflation. This is further corroborated by stronger iPhone 14 Pro model sales compared with relatively lackluster take-rates on the new smartphone family&#39;s base model equivalents.</p><p>We believe Apple&#39;s resilience demonstrated in the September quarter is also a result of prudent business management imposed at the decision-making level. This includes pulling forward the iPhone 14 launch to improve fiscal 2022 performance while allowing Apple to take advantage of earlier-than-expected holiday-season shopping trends this year as consumers spread out spending habits as budgets tighten amid an inflationary environment. Time and again, the value of Apple&#39;s prudent management at the decision-making level has shone through, playing a critical role in mitigating some of the impact from worsening consumer weakness observed in recent months that could have led to softer fundamentals.</p><p>Meanwhile, management&#39;s allusion to &#34;strength of [Apple&#39;s] ecosystem, unmatched customer loyalty, and [an] active installed base of devices [reaching] a new all-time high&#34; kicks off fiscal 2023 with a strong positive note, underscoring the value of its pervasive ecosystem of high-demand hardware and complementary services that have become increasingly entwined with many aspects of daily personal settings, big and small. It is also consistent with rising investors&#39; concerns about the impact of China - a critical market for Apple that showed signs of cracking after the company unleashed a rare round of discounts to attract demand over the summer.</p><p>But sustained growth in the higher-margin Services segment continues to demonstrate the value of Apple&#39;s sprawling influence over the consumer end-market. This is further corroborated by Apple&#39;s earnings beat, underscoring the strength of Services&#39; margins despite the tough consumer backdrop during the September quarter.</p><p>While the stock has not lost as much of its value compared to its tech peers and the broader market amid this year&#39;s selloff, which raises concerns that it may become more &#34;vulnerable&#34; to further multiple contraction in the near-term given increasingly fragile market sentiment, we believe it will continue to fare better than most given the underlying business&#39; robust fundamentals. Specifically, the robust momentum in Services maintained throughout the rising competition and deteriorating consumer sentiment in the third quarter continues to support its potential in ultimately accounting for half of Apple&#39;s valuation over the longer term, which reinforces the stock&#39;s$3 trillion thesis. Paired with Apple&#39;s upbeat F4Q22 results and management&#39;s positive tone on the forward prospects despite looming macro challenges, any near-term market volatility would likely continue to create compelling entry points for capitalizing on longer-term upsides.</p><p><b>Profitable Growth is Key - And Services is Here For It</b></p><p>Apple&#39;s Services segment demonstrated slower-than-expected but sustained growth in the September quarter, with sales increasing 5% y/y (inclusive of FX headwinds) and margins maintaining in the 70%-range despite inflationary pressures and consumer weakness. As discussed in our previous coverage on the stock, Apple&#39;s Services segment is becoming increasingly core to the company&#39;s long-term growth and profitability trajectory, especially with improved technological advancements in recent years and overall consumer weakness in the near-term lengthening upgrade cycles on devices.</p><p>This is also music to investors&#39; ears, as preference migrates from growth to profitability amid a souring macroeconomic outlook.</p><blockquote>In 2017, Apple - under the leadership of Tim Cook - vowed todoubleits services revenue by 2020. Since then, the segment has delivered with a multi-year compounded annual growth rate (&#34;CAGR&#34;) of more than 20%, boasting close to $68.5 billion in annual revenues during fiscal 2021, and approaching $80 billion in the current fiscal year ending this week. Earlier this year, Wall Street predicted that Apple&#39;s services segment amounts to a$1.5 trillionvalue on its own, similar to our own predictions which will be discussed in further detail below.</blockquote><blockquote>Although services sales growth has decelerated from its heights last year due to the moderation in demand from pulled-forward subscriptions during the pandemic era alongside broad-based macro weakness, the segment continues to boast robust double-digit expansion, reinforcing the bullish thesis surrounding Apple&#39;s sustained long-term growth and profitability trajectory.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Apple Services Is On A Critical Mission&#34;</blockquote><p>We see Services&#39; critical role in safeguarding Apple&#39;s bottom line continuing into the upcoming holiday season, despite light growth and a slight miss as expected during the fiscal fourth quarter. We see our previously discussed base case where Services will continue to lead growth alongside hardware sales as a highly likely scenario as Apple navigates through macro challenges in the near term. And the company&#39;s recent decision to raise prices on some of its core Services offerings - including Apple TV+, Apple Music and the Apple One bundle - will likely give the segment&#39;s momentum another leg up heading into fiscal 2023, as opposed to weighing further on weakening consumer sentiment since Apple has a strong value proposition to do so.</p><p><b>Apple TV+</b></p><p>Apple raised the monthly Apple TV+ subscription rate from $4.99 to $6.99, and annual subscription rate from $49 to $69, which went into effect earlier this week. While the price hike for Apple TV+ is not small - a whopping 40%+ - it remains competitive relative to rival streaming platforms spanning Netflix(NFLX), Disney+(DIS), and HBO Max(WBD), to name a few, including their respective ad-supported tiers that are / will be marketed as a &#34;cheaper&#34; alternative.</p><p>We also believe Apple has the right value proposition for jacking up Apple TV+&#39;s pricing, which will effectively help reduce potential churn in the aftermath. Specifically, Apple TV+ was &#34;introduced at a very low price because it started with just a few shows and movies.&#34; But now, it has grown into an extensive library of &#34;award-winning and broadly acclaimed series, feature films, documentaries, and kids and family entertainment,&#34; which is further corroborated by its rapidly rising global market share of more than 6%, putting rival platforms on notice.</p><p>Yet, at the new price tag of $6.99 per month, Apple TV+ - which is currently ad-free and offers unlimited access to its entire catalogue of scripted and non-scripted content, alongside live sporting events such as &#34;Friday Night Baseball&#34; - the streaming platform still beats equivalents in the pricing segment. This includes Netflix and Disney+&#39;s upcoming ad-supported tier priced at $6.99 and $7.99 per month, respectively, and HBO Max&#39;s ad-supported tier priced at $10 per month, with some not even offering access to live sporting events, which is a key demand driver in streaming that Apple TV+ is benefiting from. This continues to underscore Apple TV+&#39;s pricing advantage amid weakening consumer sentiment, with its latest price hike still more competitive than similarly-priced offerings by peers, while contributing meaningfully to the Services segment profit margins over the longer term.</p><p><b>Apple Music</b></p><p>The monthly subscription rate for Apple Music will increase from $9.99 to $10.99 for individuals, and the annual subscription rate from $99 to $109. This would effectively make the service more expensive than key rival Spotify&#39;s (SPOT) equivalent which is currently priced at $9.99 per month still.</p><p>The price hike was implemented to compensate for increasing content licensing costs for creators. Although the price increase for Apple Music subscriptions may seem like it will be another blow to the service&#39;s already laggard market share(~15%) compared to Spotify&#39;s (&gt;30%), we believe it will give Apple a leg up from a business and valuation perspective.</p><p>Specifically, Spotify currently reels from narrowing profit margins due to the same cost increases identified by Apple, underscoring that similar price hikes will likely be coming soon anyway. As such, we view the increase to Apple Music prices as a strategic move that will not only contribute positively to the Services segment&#39;s bottom line but also without the risks of material churn despite consumer weakness.</p><p><b>Apple One Bundle</b></p><p>The Apple One bundle - which allows up to six service subscriptions at a discounted price - has also implemented price increases across all of its variants offered. The standard bundle (individual subscription for Apple Music, TV+, Arcade, and iCloud+ with 50GB storage) will have its monthly subscription rate increase from $14.95 to $16.95; family bundle (five-people subscription for Apple Music, TV+, Arcade, and iCloud+ with total 200GB storage) from $19.95 to $22.95; and Premier bundle (same as family bundle, plus News+ and Fitness+) from $29.95 to $32.95.</p><p>The Apple One bundle has been a key contributor to overall growth observed in Apple&#39;s service subscription volumes and overall traction since its introduction in fiscal 2021, attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have subscribed to without the bundle discount. The bundle discount - even after the recent price increase - adds another positive touch to the service-specific value propositions for subscribers as discussed in the earlier section, which we view as a critical factor to mitigating risks of churn, while further bolstering Services growth.</p><p>The pricing advantage in Apple&#39;s Services segment is expected to contribute positively towards its longer-term valuation of about $1.5 trillion alone. Not only would it further improve the segment&#39;s profit margins - an increasingly prominent driver of Apple&#39;s free cash flows - but also help bolster the funding needed to support further expansion into additional services and upgrades that will aid penetration into a broader subscriber base over the longer term.</p><p><b>Near-Term Investment Risks to Consider</b></p><p><b>China Risks:</b> This has accordingly introduced demand risks to one of Apple&#39;s most core operating regions - China currently accounts of about a fifth of the company&#39;s consolidated sales and a quarter of the consolidated income. Concerns of said demand risks are further corroborated by the rare sighting of a direct pricing discount on certain devices introduced over the summer in China. Even during seasonality promotions - like back-to-school, Black Friday, and/or holiday-season sales - Apple has hardly ever offered direct pricing discounts, opting for gift card rebates on bundle purchases and/or gift-with-purchases instead.</p><p>In addition to demand risks, Apple also faces supply risks and geopolitical risks in the region.</p><p>Yet, we believe Apple has a few levers to pull still that can compensate for the said risks. On the supply front, Apple&#39;s importance to suppliers worldwide gives it leverage needed to compensate for supply-risk-driven cost efficiencies. This is consistent with Apple&#39;s power in price negotiations with key suppliers like Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), as well as previous observations that the tech giant&#39;s &#34;size and importance to suppliers&#34; was able to help it secure key components better than peers during the peak of supply shortages. Meanwhile, on the demand front, increasing momentum in Services as discussed in the foregoing analysis is expected to partially shield Apple from hardware demand risks in China within the foreseeable future, especially with robust market share gains observed across core operating regions like the U.S. and Europe.</p><p><b>Macro Risks:</b> FX and consumer slowdown are the biggest macro risks facing Apple today. FX risks are inevitable given the company&#39;s massive overseas operations amid a surging dollar environment as the Fed remains fixed on an aggressive rate hike trajectory to counter runaway inflation. And on the consumer slowdown front, Apple&#39;s upbeat showing for the September quarter also supports continued resilience relative to peers spanning PC/smartphone makers and service providers that have been losing market share.</p><p>In our view, we believe Mac and iPad sales are most susceptible to the near-term consumer slowdown, despite better-than-expected performance in the fiscal fourth quarter. First, the segments have already benefited from pulled-forward demand in the pandemic era, meaning forward momentum will likely remain moderate, especially with the looming economic downturn. Second, lost sales driven by supply chain constraints (most prominent in iPad segment) will likely see some of it becoming permanent instead of delayed due to consumers dialing back on discretionary spending amid deteriorating economic conditions. Lastly, previous expectations for stronger commercial IT spending that have benefited enterprise demand for Apple devices will likely moderate as well as budgets pullback to brace for near-term macroeconomic uncertainties. Worsening market trends are also contributing to anticipated challenges on Mac and iPad demand within the foreseeable future - the latest tally of global PC shipments in the calendar third quarter showed an accelerated decline this year, falling 6.8% y/y in 1Q22, 15% y/y in 2Q22, and 20% y/y in 3Q22, with 4Q22 numbers expected to worsen as consumers shun big-ticket items due to weakening spending power.</p><p>Yet, momentum in Services paired with Apple&#39;s pricing advantage as discussed in the foregoing analysis remains a key business strength that is expected to partially cushion some of the near-term impact on the macro-driven slowdown in product demand. Product upgrades, such as the latest introduction of a new Mac and iPad line-up retrofitted with next-generation Apple silicon, will likely help salvage product demand as well. This is further corroborated by Apple&#39;s rapid climb to the top, dethroning legacy PC makers like Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY), HP (HPE), and Dell (DELL) to become theindustry leader in the first half of the year.</p><p><b>Lengthening Product Cycle Risks:</b> Improving technology at Apple is also lengthening the upgrade cycle on its line-up of devices, which will potentially stagger the Products segment&#39;s growth outlook over the longer term. But Apple still has many levers to pull from a pricing and technology point-of-view to counter risks of growth slowdown due to lengthening product cycles in our opinion. For instance, Apple&#39;s transition to in-house designed silicon is a key advantage that will help attract demand stemming from both upgrades and switches and partially offset the growth slowdown in Products given their lengthened lifecycles. The company&#39;s potential introduction of a device subscription service would also drive improved economics for its Products segment over the longer term.</p><blockquote>Nonetheless, hardware sales are expected to imminently grow slower than Apple&#39;s services sales, given product revenue cycles are comparatively lengthier. For services, recurring revenues stemming from subscriptions come on a monthly or annual basis. But for products like iPhones and Macs, their lifecycles have grown from two years in the past to now aboutthreetofouryears and more than five years, respectively, thanks to continuous technological improvements. To put into perspective, the standard iPhone 14 starts at $799, which translates to about $266 in revenue per share if broken down based on a three-year lifespan. Comparatively, an annual subscription for the Apple One Bundle starts at [$203.40 per year (or $16.95 per month)], which is not too far off from the average annual revenue per iPhone, while boasting significantly more profitable margins. And while Apple&#39;s iPhone sales may be benefiting from broader industry tailwinds stemming from 5G transition, its large installed base is bound slow in growth based on the law of large numbers, signalling the double-digit multi-year CAGRs it once enjoyed are no more. It is no wonder that the company has been reportedly working on the launch of aproduct subscription modelto safeguard better economics over the longer term.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Apple Services Is On A Critical Mission&#34;</blockquote><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>Market sentiment is becoming increasingly fragile, with many investors looking to the performance of large and mega caps - especially Apple - for hints on what forward consumer sentiment might look like and what they mean for the broader tech sector and the economy overall ahead of rising recession risks. This is especially true given Apple, along with its mega-cap peers spanning Alphabet(GOOG/GOOGL), Microsoft(MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN), account for &#34;nearly a fifth&#34; of the S&amp;P 500&#39;s value today, or more than 30%of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (Apple alone is the largest influence, accounting for 15% of the weight of the Nasdaq 100).</p><p>While Apple&#39;s valuation remains lofty at &#34;23x forward earnings, above both its long-term average and the market overall,&#34; which potentially exposes it to further volatility as market sentiment remains fragile over coming months in anticipation of a cascading economy, we believe its strong F4Q22 performance and positive tone heading into fiscal 2023 reinforces the company&#39;s fundamental strength. This means any market-driven volatility in the Apple stock over the near term will continue to create a compelling risk-reward opportunity.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple A Buy After FQ4 2022 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On Services</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple A Buy After FQ4 2022 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On Services\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-28 11:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550088-is-apple-a-buy-after-f4q22-earnings-keep-your-eyes-on-services><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple has been a closely watched stock this earnings season as investors look to the consumer bellwether for hints of what's to come amid mounting macro uncertainties.The company posted upbeat ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550088-is-apple-a-buy-after-f4q22-earnings-keep-your-eyes-on-services\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550088-is-apple-a-buy-after-f4q22-earnings-keep-your-eyes-on-services","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100216928","content_text":"SummaryApple has been a closely watched stock this earnings season as investors look to the consumer bellwether for hints of what's to come amid mounting macro uncertainties.The company posted upbeat third quarter results, mixed with tempered growth in core iPhone and Services sales.Yet, the company's earnings beat and sustained 70%+ margins in Services despite lighter-than-expected growth continue to underscore the critical role of the segment for Apple.While Apple stock's outperformance this year compared to the broader market and peers potentially increases its vulnerability to further volatility, its robust fundamentals continue to support the $3 trillion thesis.Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has long been watched as the bellwether for consumer strength amid rising recession risks in recent months, and its latest resilience demonstrated in the September quarter with a double beat, paired with positive commentary on the business's strengths, sets a positive tone for fiscal 2023 despite looming macro uncertainties.Apple's September-quarter results suggest that affluent spend on premium products remains resilient, despite risks of overall consumer confidence deterioration in the near term with buckling budgets amid rising interest rates and inflation. This is further corroborated by stronger iPhone 14 Pro model sales compared with relatively lackluster take-rates on the new smartphone family's base model equivalents.We believe Apple's resilience demonstrated in the September quarter is also a result of prudent business management imposed at the decision-making level. This includes pulling forward the iPhone 14 launch to improve fiscal 2022 performance while allowing Apple to take advantage of earlier-than-expected holiday-season shopping trends this year as consumers spread out spending habits as budgets tighten amid an inflationary environment. Time and again, the value of Apple's prudent management at the decision-making level has shone through, playing a critical role in mitigating some of the impact from worsening consumer weakness observed in recent months that could have led to softer fundamentals.Meanwhile, management's allusion to \"strength of [Apple's] ecosystem, unmatched customer loyalty, and [an] active installed base of devices [reaching] a new all-time high\" kicks off fiscal 2023 with a strong positive note, underscoring the value of its pervasive ecosystem of high-demand hardware and complementary services that have become increasingly entwined with many aspects of daily personal settings, big and small. It is also consistent with rising investors' concerns about the impact of China - a critical market for Apple that showed signs of cracking after the company unleashed a rare round of discounts to attract demand over the summer.But sustained growth in the higher-margin Services segment continues to demonstrate the value of Apple's sprawling influence over the consumer end-market. This is further corroborated by Apple's earnings beat, underscoring the strength of Services' margins despite the tough consumer backdrop during the September quarter.While the stock has not lost as much of its value compared to its tech peers and the broader market amid this year's selloff, which raises concerns that it may become more \"vulnerable\" to further multiple contraction in the near-term given increasingly fragile market sentiment, we believe it will continue to fare better than most given the underlying business' robust fundamentals. Specifically, the robust momentum in Services maintained throughout the rising competition and deteriorating consumer sentiment in the third quarter continues to support its potential in ultimately accounting for half of Apple's valuation over the longer term, which reinforces the stock's$3 trillion thesis. Paired with Apple's upbeat F4Q22 results and management's positive tone on the forward prospects despite looming macro challenges, any near-term market volatility would likely continue to create compelling entry points for capitalizing on longer-term upsides.Profitable Growth is Key - And Services is Here For ItApple's Services segment demonstrated slower-than-expected but sustained growth in the September quarter, with sales increasing 5% y/y (inclusive of FX headwinds) and margins maintaining in the 70%-range despite inflationary pressures and consumer weakness. As discussed in our previous coverage on the stock, Apple's Services segment is becoming increasingly core to the company's long-term growth and profitability trajectory, especially with improved technological advancements in recent years and overall consumer weakness in the near-term lengthening upgrade cycles on devices.This is also music to investors' ears, as preference migrates from growth to profitability amid a souring macroeconomic outlook.In 2017, Apple - under the leadership of Tim Cook - vowed todoubleits services revenue by 2020. Since then, the segment has delivered with a multi-year compounded annual growth rate (\"CAGR\") of more than 20%, boasting close to $68.5 billion in annual revenues during fiscal 2021, and approaching $80 billion in the current fiscal year ending this week. Earlier this year, Wall Street predicted that Apple's services segment amounts to a$1.5 trillionvalue on its own, similar to our own predictions which will be discussed in further detail below.Although services sales growth has decelerated from its heights last year due to the moderation in demand from pulled-forward subscriptions during the pandemic era alongside broad-based macro weakness, the segment continues to boast robust double-digit expansion, reinforcing the bullish thesis surrounding Apple's sustained long-term growth and profitability trajectory.Source: \"Apple Services Is On A Critical Mission\"We see Services' critical role in safeguarding Apple's bottom line continuing into the upcoming holiday season, despite light growth and a slight miss as expected during the fiscal fourth quarter. We see our previously discussed base case where Services will continue to lead growth alongside hardware sales as a highly likely scenario as Apple navigates through macro challenges in the near term. And the company's recent decision to raise prices on some of its core Services offerings - including Apple TV+, Apple Music and the Apple One bundle - will likely give the segment's momentum another leg up heading into fiscal 2023, as opposed to weighing further on weakening consumer sentiment since Apple has a strong value proposition to do so.Apple TV+Apple raised the monthly Apple TV+ subscription rate from $4.99 to $6.99, and annual subscription rate from $49 to $69, which went into effect earlier this week. While the price hike for Apple TV+ is not small - a whopping 40%+ - it remains competitive relative to rival streaming platforms spanning Netflix(NFLX), Disney+(DIS), and HBO Max(WBD), to name a few, including their respective ad-supported tiers that are / will be marketed as a \"cheaper\" alternative.We also believe Apple has the right value proposition for jacking up Apple TV+'s pricing, which will effectively help reduce potential churn in the aftermath. Specifically, Apple TV+ was \"introduced at a very low price because it started with just a few shows and movies.\" But now, it has grown into an extensive library of \"award-winning and broadly acclaimed series, feature films, documentaries, and kids and family entertainment,\" which is further corroborated by its rapidly rising global market share of more than 6%, putting rival platforms on notice.Yet, at the new price tag of $6.99 per month, Apple TV+ - which is currently ad-free and offers unlimited access to its entire catalogue of scripted and non-scripted content, alongside live sporting events such as \"Friday Night Baseball\" - the streaming platform still beats equivalents in the pricing segment. This includes Netflix and Disney+'s upcoming ad-supported tier priced at $6.99 and $7.99 per month, respectively, and HBO Max's ad-supported tier priced at $10 per month, with some not even offering access to live sporting events, which is a key demand driver in streaming that Apple TV+ is benefiting from. This continues to underscore Apple TV+'s pricing advantage amid weakening consumer sentiment, with its latest price hike still more competitive than similarly-priced offerings by peers, while contributing meaningfully to the Services segment profit margins over the longer term.Apple MusicThe monthly subscription rate for Apple Music will increase from $9.99 to $10.99 for individuals, and the annual subscription rate from $99 to $109. This would effectively make the service more expensive than key rival Spotify's (SPOT) equivalent which is currently priced at $9.99 per month still.The price hike was implemented to compensate for increasing content licensing costs for creators. Although the price increase for Apple Music subscriptions may seem like it will be another blow to the service's already laggard market share(~15%) compared to Spotify's (>30%), we believe it will give Apple a leg up from a business and valuation perspective.Specifically, Spotify currently reels from narrowing profit margins due to the same cost increases identified by Apple, underscoring that similar price hikes will likely be coming soon anyway. As such, we view the increase to Apple Music prices as a strategic move that will not only contribute positively to the Services segment's bottom line but also without the risks of material churn despite consumer weakness.Apple One BundleThe Apple One bundle - which allows up to six service subscriptions at a discounted price - has also implemented price increases across all of its variants offered. The standard bundle (individual subscription for Apple Music, TV+, Arcade, and iCloud+ with 50GB storage) will have its monthly subscription rate increase from $14.95 to $16.95; family bundle (five-people subscription for Apple Music, TV+, Arcade, and iCloud+ with total 200GB storage) from $19.95 to $22.95; and Premier bundle (same as family bundle, plus News+ and Fitness+) from $29.95 to $32.95.The Apple One bundle has been a key contributor to overall growth observed in Apple's service subscription volumes and overall traction since its introduction in fiscal 2021, attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have subscribed to without the bundle discount. The bundle discount - even after the recent price increase - adds another positive touch to the service-specific value propositions for subscribers as discussed in the earlier section, which we view as a critical factor to mitigating risks of churn, while further bolstering Services growth.The pricing advantage in Apple's Services segment is expected to contribute positively towards its longer-term valuation of about $1.5 trillion alone. Not only would it further improve the segment's profit margins - an increasingly prominent driver of Apple's free cash flows - but also help bolster the funding needed to support further expansion into additional services and upgrades that will aid penetration into a broader subscriber base over the longer term.Near-Term Investment Risks to ConsiderChina Risks: This has accordingly introduced demand risks to one of Apple's most core operating regions - China currently accounts of about a fifth of the company's consolidated sales and a quarter of the consolidated income. Concerns of said demand risks are further corroborated by the rare sighting of a direct pricing discount on certain devices introduced over the summer in China. Even during seasonality promotions - like back-to-school, Black Friday, and/or holiday-season sales - Apple has hardly ever offered direct pricing discounts, opting for gift card rebates on bundle purchases and/or gift-with-purchases instead.In addition to demand risks, Apple also faces supply risks and geopolitical risks in the region.Yet, we believe Apple has a few levers to pull still that can compensate for the said risks. On the supply front, Apple's importance to suppliers worldwide gives it leverage needed to compensate for supply-risk-driven cost efficiencies. This is consistent with Apple's power in price negotiations with key suppliers like Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), as well as previous observations that the tech giant's \"size and importance to suppliers\" was able to help it secure key components better than peers during the peak of supply shortages. Meanwhile, on the demand front, increasing momentum in Services as discussed in the foregoing analysis is expected to partially shield Apple from hardware demand risks in China within the foreseeable future, especially with robust market share gains observed across core operating regions like the U.S. and Europe.Macro Risks: FX and consumer slowdown are the biggest macro risks facing Apple today. FX risks are inevitable given the company's massive overseas operations amid a surging dollar environment as the Fed remains fixed on an aggressive rate hike trajectory to counter runaway inflation. And on the consumer slowdown front, Apple's upbeat showing for the September quarter also supports continued resilience relative to peers spanning PC/smartphone makers and service providers that have been losing market share.In our view, we believe Mac and iPad sales are most susceptible to the near-term consumer slowdown, despite better-than-expected performance in the fiscal fourth quarter. First, the segments have already benefited from pulled-forward demand in the pandemic era, meaning forward momentum will likely remain moderate, especially with the looming economic downturn. Second, lost sales driven by supply chain constraints (most prominent in iPad segment) will likely see some of it becoming permanent instead of delayed due to consumers dialing back on discretionary spending amid deteriorating economic conditions. Lastly, previous expectations for stronger commercial IT spending that have benefited enterprise demand for Apple devices will likely moderate as well as budgets pullback to brace for near-term macroeconomic uncertainties. Worsening market trends are also contributing to anticipated challenges on Mac and iPad demand within the foreseeable future - the latest tally of global PC shipments in the calendar third quarter showed an accelerated decline this year, falling 6.8% y/y in 1Q22, 15% y/y in 2Q22, and 20% y/y in 3Q22, with 4Q22 numbers expected to worsen as consumers shun big-ticket items due to weakening spending power.Yet, momentum in Services paired with Apple's pricing advantage as discussed in the foregoing analysis remains a key business strength that is expected to partially cushion some of the near-term impact on the macro-driven slowdown in product demand. Product upgrades, such as the latest introduction of a new Mac and iPad line-up retrofitted with next-generation Apple silicon, will likely help salvage product demand as well. This is further corroborated by Apple's rapid climb to the top, dethroning legacy PC makers like Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY), HP (HPE), and Dell (DELL) to become theindustry leader in the first half of the year.Lengthening Product Cycle Risks: Improving technology at Apple is also lengthening the upgrade cycle on its line-up of devices, which will potentially stagger the Products segment's growth outlook over the longer term. But Apple still has many levers to pull from a pricing and technology point-of-view to counter risks of growth slowdown due to lengthening product cycles in our opinion. For instance, Apple's transition to in-house designed silicon is a key advantage that will help attract demand stemming from both upgrades and switches and partially offset the growth slowdown in Products given their lengthened lifecycles. The company's potential introduction of a device subscription service would also drive improved economics for its Products segment over the longer term.Nonetheless, hardware sales are expected to imminently grow slower than Apple's services sales, given product revenue cycles are comparatively lengthier. For services, recurring revenues stemming from subscriptions come on a monthly or annual basis. But for products like iPhones and Macs, their lifecycles have grown from two years in the past to now aboutthreetofouryears and more than five years, respectively, thanks to continuous technological improvements. To put into perspective, the standard iPhone 14 starts at $799, which translates to about $266 in revenue per share if broken down based on a three-year lifespan. Comparatively, an annual subscription for the Apple One Bundle starts at [$203.40 per year (or $16.95 per month)], which is not too far off from the average annual revenue per iPhone, while boasting significantly more profitable margins. And while Apple's iPhone sales may be benefiting from broader industry tailwinds stemming from 5G transition, its large installed base is bound slow in growth based on the law of large numbers, signalling the double-digit multi-year CAGRs it once enjoyed are no more. It is no wonder that the company has been reportedly working on the launch of aproduct subscription modelto safeguard better economics over the longer term.Source: \"Apple Services Is On A Critical Mission\"Final ThoughtsMarket sentiment is becoming increasingly fragile, with many investors looking to the performance of large and mega caps - especially Apple - for hints on what forward consumer sentiment might look like and what they mean for the broader tech sector and the economy overall ahead of rising recession risks. This is especially true given Apple, along with its mega-cap peers spanning Alphabet(GOOG/GOOGL), Microsoft(MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN), account for \"nearly a fifth\" of the S&P 500's value today, or more than 30%of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (Apple alone is the largest influence, accounting for 15% of the weight of the Nasdaq 100).While Apple's valuation remains lofty at \"23x forward earnings, above both its long-term average and the market overall,\" which potentially exposes it to further volatility as market sentiment remains fragile over coming months in anticipation of a cascading economy, we believe its strong F4Q22 performance and positive tone heading into fiscal 2023 reinforces the company's fundamental strength. This means any market-driven volatility in the Apple stock over the near term will continue to create a compelling risk-reward opportunity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986859057,"gmtCreate":1666926562980,"gmtModify":1676537832886,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No. Most e commerce are not doing well due to the saturated market.","listText":"No. Most e commerce are not doing well due to the saturated market.","text":"No. Most e commerce are not doing well due to the saturated market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986859057","repostId":"1110500830","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983311962,"gmtCreate":1666149467457,"gmtModify":1676537714314,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you for your info.","listText":"Thank you for your info.","text":"Thank you for your info.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983311962","repostId":"1163149585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163149585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666188491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163149585?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163149585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. B","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021&#39;s free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?</li><li>2021 was &#34;peak everything&#34; for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple&#39;s products being a key bellwether.</li><li>Apple&#39;s U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.</li><li>Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.</li><li>While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.</li></ul><p>Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple&#39;s stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74fbc6467060e07ea0d8b8477c0a63f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>The Pandemic Didn&#39;t Fundamentally Change Apple&#39;s Business</h3><p>Of course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple&#39;s income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.</p><p>Apple&#39;s share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.</p><p>EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.</p><p>And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).</p><p>When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.</p><p>Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple&#39;s buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!</p><p>It&#39;s strange when you think about it, but Apple&#39;s story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth &gt; EPS Growth&gt; Net Income Growth&gt; EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.</p><p>If you&#39;re buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple&#39;s business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don&#39;t see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That&#39;s tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple&#39;s.</p><p>But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple&#39;s earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.</p><h3>What To Expect From Apple&#39;s Earnings: Not Sustainable</h3><p>Apple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple&#39;s report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there&#39;s no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple&#39;s prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That&#39;s not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year&#39;s earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&amp;P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.</p><p>This wouldn&#39;t be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don&#39;t think there&#39;s much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There&#39;s also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple&#39;s US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL&#39;s earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that&#39;s another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.</p><h3>Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And Noise</h3><p>There&#39;s a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people&#39;s guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren&#39;t so different. Research shows companies that have the world&#39;s largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.</p><p>Apple is the world&#39;s most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can&#39;t justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don&#39;t be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you&#39;ll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.</p><h3>Bottom Line</h3><p>For a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha&#39;s quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple&#39;s growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-19 22:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163149585","content_text":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?2021 was \"peak everything\" for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple's products being a key bellwether.Apple's U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple's stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.Data by YChartsThe Pandemic Didn't Fundamentally Change Apple's BusinessOf course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple's income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.Apple's share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple's buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!It's strange when you think about it, but Apple's story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth > EPS Growth> Net Income Growth> EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.If you're buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple's business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don't see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That's tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple's.But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple's earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed's interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.What To Expect From Apple's Earnings: Not SustainableApple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple's report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there's no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple's prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That's not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year's earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.This wouldn't be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don't think there's much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There's also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple's US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL's earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that's another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And NoiseThere's a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people's guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren't so different. Research shows companies that have the world's largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.Apple is the world's most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can't justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don't be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you'll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.Bottom LineFor a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha's quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple's growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989886233,"gmtCreate":1665969127522,"gmtModify":1676537684531,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989886233","repostId":"2276758809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2276758809","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1665946740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2276758809?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 02:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, Netflix Set to Report Earnings: What to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2276758809","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Third-quarter earnings season picks up this week, with more than 60 S&P 500 companies scheduled to r","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Third-quarter earnings season picks up this week, with more than 60 S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report. The economic calendar will bring a bevy of housing-market indicators and other data.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a> will be Monday&#39;s earnings highlights, followed by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>, Johnson &amp; Johnson, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> on Tuesday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Procter &amp; Gamble, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines Holdings, and Nestlé release results on Wednesday. Thursday will be busy: Blackstone, Dow, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group, AT&amp;T, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNP\">Union Pacific</a>, Snap, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAM\">Boston Beer</a> all report. Finally, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZA\">Verizon</a> Communications, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a> close the week on Friday.</p><p>Housing data out this week will include the National Association of Home Builders&#39; NAHB/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a> Housing Market Index for October on Tuesday, the Census Bureau&#39;s new residential construction data for September on Wednesday, and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLDW\">National</a> Association of Realtors&#39; existing-home sales for September on Thursday.</p><p>Other economic releases this week include the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest beige book on Wednesday and the Conference Board&#39;s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday.</p><p><b>Monday 10/17</b></p><p>Bank of America, Charles Schwab, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a> report third-quarter earnings.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October. Expectations are for a minus 2.5 reading, compared with minus 1.5 in September. Readings above zero represent economic expansion in the survey.</p><p><b>Tuesday 10/18</b></p><p>Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Albertsons, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAS\">Hasbro</a>, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Roche Holding, Goldman Sachs, Truist Financial, State Street, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OMC\">Omnicom</a> Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and Intuitive Surgical are among companies discussing financial results.</p><p>The Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for no change, after a 0.2% drop in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 79.9%, roughly in line with August&#39;s 80.0%.</p><p>The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October. Consensus estimate is for a 43.5 reading, compared with 46 in September. The index has dropped every month in 2022 from its 84 reading in December.</p><p><b>Wednesday 10/19</b></p><p>The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.480 million new housing starts, compared with 1.575 million in August.</p><p>IBM, Tesla, Procter &amp; Gamble, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRV\">Travelers</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFG\">Citizens Financial Group</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBCP\">United</a> Airlines Holdings, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust, Nestlé, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHGE\">Baker Hughes</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOM\">Ally Financial</a>, ASML Holding, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lam Research</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLD\">Prologis</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a> hold earnings calls with investors.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank releases its beige book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts.</p><p>Thursday 10/20</p><p>Blackstone, Dow, Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, KeyCorp, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAN\">ManpowerGroup</a>, Snap-On, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DHR\">Danaher</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> Airlines Group, AT&amp;T, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> International, Union Pacific, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DGX\">Quest Diagnostics</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPC\">Genuine Parts</a>, CSX, Snap, and Boston Beer hold earnings conference calls.</p><p>The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted 0.3% month-over-month decline, after a 0.3% drop in August.</p><p>The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million homes sold, compared with 4.80 million in August.</p><p>The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is released. Estimates call for a minus 5.0 reading in October, compared with minus 9.9 in September.</p><p>Friday 10/21</p><p>American Express, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WHR\">Whirlpool</a>, Regions Financial, HCA <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/THC\">Tenet Healthcare</a>, and Schlumberger hold earnings conference calls.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, Netflix Set to Report Earnings: What to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Netflix Set to Report Earnings: What to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-17 02:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Third-quarter earnings season picks up this week, with more than 60 S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report. The economic calendar will bring a bevy of housing-market indicators and other data.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a> will be Monday&#39;s earnings highlights, followed by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>, Johnson &amp; Johnson, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> on Tuesday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Procter &amp; Gamble, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines Holdings, and Nestlé release results on Wednesday. Thursday will be busy: Blackstone, Dow, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group, AT&amp;T, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNP\">Union Pacific</a>, Snap, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAM\">Boston Beer</a> all report. Finally, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZA\">Verizon</a> Communications, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a> close the week on Friday.</p><p>Housing data out this week will include the National Association of Home Builders&#39; NAHB/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a> Housing Market Index for October on Tuesday, the Census Bureau&#39;s new residential construction data for September on Wednesday, and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLDW\">National</a> Association of Realtors&#39; existing-home sales for September on Thursday.</p><p>Other economic releases this week include the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest beige book on Wednesday and the Conference Board&#39;s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday.</p><p><b>Monday 10/17</b></p><p>Bank of America, Charles Schwab, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a> report third-quarter earnings.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October. Expectations are for a minus 2.5 reading, compared with minus 1.5 in September. Readings above zero represent economic expansion in the survey.</p><p><b>Tuesday 10/18</b></p><p>Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Albertsons, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAS\">Hasbro</a>, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Roche Holding, Goldman Sachs, Truist Financial, State Street, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OMC\">Omnicom</a> Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and Intuitive Surgical are among companies discussing financial results.</p><p>The Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for no change, after a 0.2% drop in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 79.9%, roughly in line with August&#39;s 80.0%.</p><p>The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October. Consensus estimate is for a 43.5 reading, compared with 46 in September. The index has dropped every month in 2022 from its 84 reading in December.</p><p><b>Wednesday 10/19</b></p><p>The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.480 million new housing starts, compared with 1.575 million in August.</p><p>IBM, Tesla, Procter &amp; Gamble, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRV\">Travelers</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFG\">Citizens Financial Group</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBCP\">United</a> Airlines Holdings, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust, Nestlé, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHGE\">Baker Hughes</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOM\">Ally Financial</a>, ASML Holding, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lam Research</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLD\">Prologis</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a> hold earnings calls with investors.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank releases its beige book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts.</p><p>Thursday 10/20</p><p>Blackstone, Dow, Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, KeyCorp, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAN\">ManpowerGroup</a>, Snap-On, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DHR\">Danaher</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> Airlines Group, AT&amp;T, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> International, Union Pacific, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DGX\">Quest Diagnostics</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPC\">Genuine Parts</a>, CSX, Snap, and Boston Beer hold earnings conference calls.</p><p>The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted 0.3% month-over-month decline, after a 0.3% drop in August.</p><p>The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million homes sold, compared with 4.80 million in August.</p><p>The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is released. Estimates call for a minus 5.0 reading in October, compared with minus 9.9 in September.</p><p>Friday 10/21</p><p>American Express, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WHR\">Whirlpool</a>, Regions Financial, HCA <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/THC\">Tenet Healthcare</a>, and Schlumberger hold earnings conference calls.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4555":"新能源车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2276758809","content_text":"Third-quarter earnings season picks up this week, with more than 60 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. The economic calendar will bring a bevy of housing-market indicators and other data.Bank of America and Charles Schwab will be Monday's earnings highlights, followed by Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, and Intuitive Surgical on Tuesday.IBM, Tesla, Procter & Gamble, United Airlines Holdings, and Nestlé release results on Wednesday. Thursday will be busy: Blackstone, Dow, American Airlines Group, AT&T, Union Pacific, Snap, and Boston Beer all report. Finally, American Express, Verizon Communications, and Schlumberger close the week on Friday.Housing data out this week will include the National Association of Home Builders' NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October on Tuesday, the Census Bureau's new residential construction data for September on Wednesday, and the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales for September on Thursday.Other economic releases this week include the Federal Reserve's latest beige book on Wednesday and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday.Monday 10/17Bank of America, Charles Schwab, and Bank of New York Mellon report third-quarter earnings.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October. Expectations are for a minus 2.5 reading, compared with minus 1.5 in September. Readings above zero represent economic expansion in the survey.Tuesday 10/18Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Albertsons, Hasbro, Johnson & Johnson, Roche Holding, Goldman Sachs, Truist Financial, State Street, Interactive Brokers, Omnicom Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and Intuitive Surgical are among companies discussing financial results.The Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for no change, after a 0.2% drop in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 79.9%, roughly in line with August's 80.0%.The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October. Consensus estimate is for a 43.5 reading, compared with 46 in September. The index has dropped every month in 2022 from its 84 reading in December.Wednesday 10/19The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.480 million new housing starts, compared with 1.575 million in August.IBM, Tesla, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, Citizens Financial Group, United Airlines Holdings, Abbott Laboratories, Northern Trust, Nestlé, Nasdaq, Baker Hughes, Ally Financial, ASML Holding, Lam Research, Prologis, and Alcoa hold earnings calls with investors.The Federal Reserve Bank releases its beige book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts.Thursday 10/20Blackstone, Dow, Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, KeyCorp, ManpowerGroup, Snap-On, Danaher, American Airlines Group, AT&T, Philip Morris International, Union Pacific, Quest Diagnostics, Genuine Parts, CSX, Snap, and Boston Beer hold earnings conference calls.The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted 0.3% month-over-month decline, after a 0.3% drop in August.The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million homes sold, compared with 4.80 million in August.The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is released. Estimates call for a minus 5.0 reading in October, compared with minus 9.9 in September.Friday 10/21American Express, Whirlpool, Regions Financial, HCA Healthcare, Tenet Healthcare, and Schlumberger hold earnings conference calls.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981908649,"gmtCreate":1666361727881,"gmtModify":1676537747043,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you.","listText":"Thank you.","text":"Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981908649","repostId":"1159307696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983312553,"gmtCreate":1666149801373,"gmtModify":1676537714429,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983312553","repostId":"1163149585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163149585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666188491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163149585?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163149585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. B","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021&#39;s free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?</li><li>2021 was &#34;peak everything&#34; for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple&#39;s products being a key bellwether.</li><li>Apple&#39;s U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.</li><li>Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.</li><li>While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.</li></ul><p>Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple&#39;s stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74fbc6467060e07ea0d8b8477c0a63f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>The Pandemic Didn&#39;t Fundamentally Change Apple&#39;s Business</h3><p>Of course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple&#39;s income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.</p><p>Apple&#39;s share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.</p><p>EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.</p><p>And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).</p><p>When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.</p><p>Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple&#39;s buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!</p><p>It&#39;s strange when you think about it, but Apple&#39;s story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth &gt; EPS Growth&gt; Net Income Growth&gt; EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.</p><p>If you&#39;re buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple&#39;s business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don&#39;t see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That&#39;s tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple&#39;s.</p><p>But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple&#39;s earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.</p><h3>What To Expect From Apple&#39;s Earnings: Not Sustainable</h3><p>Apple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple&#39;s report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there&#39;s no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple&#39;s prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That&#39;s not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year&#39;s earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&amp;P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.</p><p>This wouldn&#39;t be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don&#39;t think there&#39;s much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There&#39;s also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple&#39;s US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL&#39;s earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that&#39;s another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.</p><h3>Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And Noise</h3><p>There&#39;s a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people&#39;s guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren&#39;t so different. Research shows companies that have the world&#39;s largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.</p><p>Apple is the world&#39;s most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can&#39;t justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don&#39;t be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you&#39;ll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.</p><h3>Bottom Line</h3><p>For a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha&#39;s quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple&#39;s growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-19 22:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163149585","content_text":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?2021 was \"peak everything\" for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple's products being a key bellwether.Apple's U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple's stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.Data by YChartsThe Pandemic Didn't Fundamentally Change Apple's BusinessOf course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple's income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.Apple's share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple's buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!It's strange when you think about it, but Apple's story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth > EPS Growth> Net Income Growth> EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.If you're buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple's business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don't see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That's tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple's.But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple's earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed's interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.What To Expect From Apple's Earnings: Not SustainableApple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple's report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there's no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple's prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That's not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year's earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.This wouldn't be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don't think there's much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There's also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple's US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL's earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that's another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And NoiseThere's a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people's guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren't so different. Research shows companies that have the world's largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.Apple is the world's most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can't justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don't be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you'll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.Bottom LineFor a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha's quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple's growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983312750,"gmtCreate":1666149828470,"gmtModify":1676537714436,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you for your information.&nbsp;","listText":"Thank you for your information.&nbsp;","text":"Thank you for your information.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983312750","repostId":"1129905097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129905097","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666151424,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129905097?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 11:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Earnings Outlooks Are Key to Determining If Stocks Hit Bottom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129905097","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Morgan Stanley says 3Q results to drive near-term equity movesResilient profits may push earnings de","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Morgan Stanley says 3Q results to drive near-term equity moves</li><li>Resilient profits may push earnings debate to January: Weaver</li></ul><p>The rebound in US equities this week is stoking an argument that’s raged all year on Wall Street: When will this bear market end?</p><p>The answer may lie in the current earnings season, which kicked off last week, specifically Corporate America’s outlook for future profits, according to Morgan Stanley. A reset in earnings expectations could prompt investors to seek an inflection point in the market, with the S&amp;P 500 Index set for its biggest annual decline since the global financial crisis.</p><p>“This earnings season in particular holds importance as it could shape the debate between the bulls and the bears,” strategists led by Michelle Weaver wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.</p><p>Strong results and stable guidance may “suggest a more moderate earnings correction or at least push the earnings debate until January’s fourth-quarter reporting season,” the strategists wrote. However, “a sharp reduction in earnings estimates could signal significant earnings cuts and a potential earnings recession.”</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, a well-known stock market bear who correctly predicted this year’s slump, separately said Monday that US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession. That could lead to the S&amp;P 500’s bounce to 4,150, a 13% upside from Monday’s close. But he maintained his overall negative long-term stance on equities, cautioning that a bounce of that magnitude would be in line with prior bear-market rallies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b495095f619b84a616a28d7a1bfad699\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Companies have likely managed the quarter well enough to provide a “soft beat” given the lower bar, Weaver explained. Still, the broad consensus among the bank’s client base is that 2023 earnings remain too high. While corporate profits in the S&amp;P 500 are expected to increase 2.2% in the third quarter, growth is projected to sit at 5.7% in 2023, down from expectations of 9.7% in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p>To fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Corp., the sentiment on stocks and global growth “screams macro capitulation,” opening the way to an equities rally in 2023, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Tuesday.</p><p>Even some of Wall Street’s fervent bulls are turning to sour this month. On Monday, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.’s Marko Kolanovic -- Wall Street’s most vocal bull -- cut the size of his equity overweight and bond underweight allocations in the bank’s model portfolio, citing increasing risks from central bank policies and geopolitics. Earlier this month, he warned that hawkish central banks have put the firm’s 2022 price target of 4,800 at risk for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>For Morgan Stanley’s Weaver, there are 12 stocks that are poised to “react materially to near-term events.” Seven companies that are expected to react positively include Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc.; Arista Networks Inc.; Cboe Global Markets Inc.; Cummins Inc.; DTE Energy Co.; MercadoLibre Inc.; and Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. Meanwhile, five stocks in particular could face declines like CAE Inc.; Logitech International SA; Micron Technology Inc.; Seagate Technology; and Zebra Technologies Corp.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Outlooks Are Key to Determining If Stocks Hit Bottom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Outlooks Are Key to Determining If Stocks Hit Bottom\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-19 11:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/earnings-outlooks-are-key-to-determining-if-stocks-hit-bottom><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Morgan Stanley says 3Q results to drive near-term equity movesResilient profits may push earnings debate to January: WeaverThe rebound in US equities this week is stoking an argument that’s raged all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/earnings-outlooks-are-key-to-determining-if-stocks-hit-bottom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/earnings-outlooks-are-key-to-determining-if-stocks-hit-bottom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129905097","content_text":"Morgan Stanley says 3Q results to drive near-term equity movesResilient profits may push earnings debate to January: WeaverThe rebound in US equities this week is stoking an argument that’s raged all year on Wall Street: When will this bear market end?The answer may lie in the current earnings season, which kicked off last week, specifically Corporate America’s outlook for future profits, according to Morgan Stanley. A reset in earnings expectations could prompt investors to seek an inflection point in the market, with the S&P 500 Index set for its biggest annual decline since the global financial crisis.“This earnings season in particular holds importance as it could shape the debate between the bulls and the bears,” strategists led by Michelle Weaver wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.Strong results and stable guidance may “suggest a more moderate earnings correction or at least push the earnings debate until January’s fourth-quarter reporting season,” the strategists wrote. However, “a sharp reduction in earnings estimates could signal significant earnings cuts and a potential earnings recession.”Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, a well-known stock market bear who correctly predicted this year’s slump, separately said Monday that US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession. That could lead to the S&P 500’s bounce to 4,150, a 13% upside from Monday’s close. But he maintained his overall negative long-term stance on equities, cautioning that a bounce of that magnitude would be in line with prior bear-market rallies.Companies have likely managed the quarter well enough to provide a “soft beat” given the lower bar, Weaver explained. Still, the broad consensus among the bank’s client base is that 2023 earnings remain too high. While corporate profits in the S&P 500 are expected to increase 2.2% in the third quarter, growth is projected to sit at 5.7% in 2023, down from expectations of 9.7% in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.To fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Corp., the sentiment on stocks and global growth “screams macro capitulation,” opening the way to an equities rally in 2023, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Tuesday.Even some of Wall Street’s fervent bulls are turning to sour this month. On Monday, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic -- Wall Street’s most vocal bull -- cut the size of his equity overweight and bond underweight allocations in the bank’s model portfolio, citing increasing risks from central bank policies and geopolitics. Earlier this month, he warned that hawkish central banks have put the firm’s 2022 price target of 4,800 at risk for the S&P 500.For Morgan Stanley’s Weaver, there are 12 stocks that are poised to “react materially to near-term events.” Seven companies that are expected to react positively include Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc.; Arista Networks Inc.; Cboe Global Markets Inc.; Cummins Inc.; DTE Energy Co.; MercadoLibre Inc.; and Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. Meanwhile, five stocks in particular could face declines like CAE Inc.; Logitech International SA; Micron Technology Inc.; Seagate Technology; and Zebra Technologies Corp.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989882424,"gmtCreate":1665969259069,"gmtModify":1676537684561,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you.","listText":"Thank you.","text":"Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989882424","repostId":"1117715251","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989882319,"gmtCreate":1665969213331,"gmtModify":1676537684546,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you.","listText":"Thank you.","text":"Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989882319","repostId":"1117715251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117715251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665965187,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117715251?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 08:06","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Oversold Singapore Bourse Expected To Open Lower Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117715251","media":"RTT News","summary":"The Singapore stock market has finished lower in seven straight sessions, sinking more than 110 poin","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Singapore stock market has finished lower in seven straight sessions, sinking more than 110 points or 3.6 percent to a fresh 19-month closing low. The Straits Times Index now rests just beneath the 3,040-point plateau and it may take further damage again on Monday.</p><p>The global forecast for the Asian markets is negative on rising fears of recession and higher interest rates. The European markets were up and the U.S. bourses were down and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.</p><p>The STI finished barely lower on Friday following losses from the industrials, support from the financials and a mixed picture from the property sector.</p><p>For the day, the index eased 0.84 points or 0.03 percent to finish at the daily low of 3,039.61 after peaking at 3,078.17. Volume was 1.4 billion shares worth 1.2 billion Singapore dollars. There were 255 decliners and 251 gainers.</p><p>Among the actives, Ascendas REIT gained 0.38 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust skidded 1.08 percent, CapitaLand Investment lost 0.62 percent, City Developments fell 0.40 percent, Comfort DelGro sank 0.78 percent, DBS Group climbed 1.41 percent, Genting Singapore shed 0.64 percent, Hongkong Land rose 0.23 percent, Keppel Corp retreated 1.18 percent, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust plummeted 2.98 percent, Mapletree Industrial Trust plunged 2.16 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust declined 1.34 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation was up 0.09 percent, SembCorp Industries tanked 1.71 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering dropped 0.92 percent, United Overseas Bank collected 0.42 percent, Wilmar International slumped 1.12 percent, Yangzijiang Financial tumbled 1.41 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding jumped 1.74 percent and Emperador, SingTel, Thai Beverage, SATS and Keppel DC REIT were unchanged.</p><p>The lead from Wall Street is brutal as the major averages opened higher on Friday but quickly nosedived into the red and finished with deep losses.</p><p>The Dow tumbled 403.87 points or 1.34 percent to finish at 29,634.83, while the NASDAQ plunged 327.81 points or 3.08 percent to close at 10,321.39 and the S&amp;P 500 sank 86.84 points or 2.37 percent to end at 3,583.07.</p><p>For the week, the Dow rose 1.2 percent, the NASDAQ dropped 3.1 percent and the S&amp;P lost 1.5 percent.</p><p>The sharp pullback on Wall Street extended the volatility on Thursday, when stocks recovered from an early sell-off to close sharply higher. But renewed selling pressure was generated by a report from the University of Michigan showing a rebound in inflation expectations in October.</p><p>Traders also reacted to earnings news from several big-name financial companies as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported better than expected revenues, while Morgan Stanley (MS) missed estimates.</p><p>Crude oil prices plummeted on Friday, weighed down by concerns about the outlook for energy demand amid the rising possibility of a global recession. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended lower by $3.50 or 3.9 percent at $85.61 a barrel.</p><p>Closer to home, Singapore will provide September numbers for non-oil domestic exports later this morning, with forecasts suggesting a decline of 2.1 percent on month and an increase of 7.1 percent on year. That follows the 3.9 percent monthly decline and the 11.4 percent yearly gain in August.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1637539882596","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oversold Singapore Bourse Expected To Open Lower Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOversold Singapore Bourse Expected To Open Lower Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-17 08:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.rttnews.com/3317384/oversold-singapore-bourse-expected-to-open-lower-again.aspx?type=acom><strong>RTT News</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Singapore stock market has finished lower in seven straight sessions, sinking more than 110 points or 3.6 percent to a fresh 19-month closing low. The Straits Times Index now rests just beneath ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3317384/oversold-singapore-bourse-expected-to-open-lower-again.aspx?type=acom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3317384/oversold-singapore-bourse-expected-to-open-lower-again.aspx?type=acom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117715251","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has finished lower in seven straight sessions, sinking more than 110 points or 3.6 percent to a fresh 19-month closing low. The Straits Times Index now rests just beneath the 3,040-point plateau and it may take further damage again on Monday.The global forecast for the Asian markets is negative on rising fears of recession and higher interest rates. The European markets were up and the U.S. bourses were down and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.The STI finished barely lower on Friday following losses from the industrials, support from the financials and a mixed picture from the property sector.For the day, the index eased 0.84 points or 0.03 percent to finish at the daily low of 3,039.61 after peaking at 3,078.17. Volume was 1.4 billion shares worth 1.2 billion Singapore dollars. There were 255 decliners and 251 gainers.Among the actives, Ascendas REIT gained 0.38 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust skidded 1.08 percent, CapitaLand Investment lost 0.62 percent, City Developments fell 0.40 percent, Comfort DelGro sank 0.78 percent, DBS Group climbed 1.41 percent, Genting Singapore shed 0.64 percent, Hongkong Land rose 0.23 percent, Keppel Corp retreated 1.18 percent, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust plummeted 2.98 percent, Mapletree Industrial Trust plunged 2.16 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust declined 1.34 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation was up 0.09 percent, SembCorp Industries tanked 1.71 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering dropped 0.92 percent, United Overseas Bank collected 0.42 percent, Wilmar International slumped 1.12 percent, Yangzijiang Financial tumbled 1.41 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding jumped 1.74 percent and Emperador, SingTel, Thai Beverage, SATS and Keppel DC REIT were unchanged.The lead from Wall Street is brutal as the major averages opened higher on Friday but quickly nosedived into the red and finished with deep losses.The Dow tumbled 403.87 points or 1.34 percent to finish at 29,634.83, while the NASDAQ plunged 327.81 points or 3.08 percent to close at 10,321.39 and the S&P 500 sank 86.84 points or 2.37 percent to end at 3,583.07.For the week, the Dow rose 1.2 percent, the NASDAQ dropped 3.1 percent and the S&P lost 1.5 percent.The sharp pullback on Wall Street extended the volatility on Thursday, when stocks recovered from an early sell-off to close sharply higher. But renewed selling pressure was generated by a report from the University of Michigan showing a rebound in inflation expectations in October.Traders also reacted to earnings news from several big-name financial companies as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported better than expected revenues, while Morgan Stanley (MS) missed estimates.Crude oil prices plummeted on Friday, weighed down by concerns about the outlook for energy demand amid the rising possibility of a global recession. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended lower by $3.50 or 3.9 percent at $85.61 a barrel.Closer to home, Singapore will provide September numbers for non-oil domestic exports later this morning, with forecasts suggesting a decline of 2.1 percent on month and an increase of 7.1 percent on year. That follows the 3.9 percent monthly decline and the 11.4 percent yearly gain in August.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981674110,"gmtCreate":1666501219430,"gmtModify":1676537763235,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981674110","repostId":"2277553762","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983564739,"gmtCreate":1666278460121,"gmtModify":1676537734708,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least she stepped down gracefully and not authoritarianly.","listText":"At least she stepped down gracefully and not authoritarianly.","text":"At least she stepped down gracefully and not authoritarianly.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983564739","repostId":"1198288029","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989886523,"gmtCreate":1665969172462,"gmtModify":1676537684531,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989886523","repostId":"2275965539","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980412476,"gmtCreate":1665795848395,"gmtModify":1676537665349,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nah. It will drop further till next year.","listText":"Nah. It will drop further till next year.","text":"Nah. It will drop further till next year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980412476","repostId":"2275665189","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2275665189","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665787817,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2275665189?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-15 06:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market’s Rebound Fizzled Again. Why a Real Bottom Could Form Soon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275665189","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors seemingly can’t stop trying to pick a stock market bottom, no matter how bad the news—and ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors seemingly can’t stop trying to pick a stock market bottom, no matter how bad the news—and it continues to backfire. The day for a real bounce, however, may be coming soon.</p><p>Consider: This past Thursday, September’s consumer inflation report came in much hotter than expected, with the core CPI hitting a 40-year high. The initial response was exactly what you’d expect—the S&amp;P 500 traded down as much as 2.4%—but then it started rallying…and rallying. The index finally finished the day up 2.6%, the first time that’s happened since 2008.</p><p>The rally had people talking about capitulation and bear-market bottoms, but alas, it was not to be. A rise in inflation expectations that showed up in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey on Friday pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2008.</p><p>As a result, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.6% this past week, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.1% to close at its lowest level since July 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average,thanks to some solid earnings from Walgreens Boots Alliance (ticker: WBA), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and JPMorgan Chase(JPM), finished the week up 1.2%.</p><p>Still, for the first time in a while, it feels like there’s hope. Part of that is simply the market starting to acknowledge the fact that the Federal Reserve will do what it said it would do—crank rates up as high as they need to go to tame inflation. There’s now more than a 70% chance the Fed raises rates over 4.5% by December, which would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.</p><p>But the market is starting to act the way it does at lows. Take Thursday’s massive turnaround. The S&amp;P 500 fell 2.4% before finishing up 2.6%, a five-point swing. That’s happened just nine other times since 1983, according to Bespoke Investment Group data. The wild swings often continued—the S&amp;P 500 was down 3.5% on average over the following three months, but up an average of 14.6% over the next 12 months. “We’re not sure when or where the ultimate bottom in stocks will end up, but violent moves like yesterday tend to occur closer to lows than highs,” the folks at Bespoke explain.</p><p>Other measures are starting to send similar messages. On Friday, noted Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at the Leuthold Group, the firm’s Very Long Term Momentum indicator, or VLT, reached an oversold level for the first time since 2016. It’s not a buy signal yet—that happens when the indicator turns up—but it does mean one “is now mathematically possible,” Ramsey writes. “Patience is advised. But this long-term oversold condition should help investors pull the trigger when the time comes.”</p><p>It’s also easy to forget that the S&amp;P 500 has already dropped 25% this year, a level that’s approaching the losses in an average recession, in which the market drops 30% to 40%, observes Rick Bookstaber, head of risk at Fabric. That means investors could rightly expect more losses, but a good portion of the index’s losses are likely behind it. “If you look at historical cases of bad market events and recessions, we’re more than halfway there in terms of the pain that the market has had,” he says.</p><p>Indeed, it might even be time to start nibbling on individual stocks. Morgan Stanley portfolio manager Andrew Slimmon notes that while the market has dropped 25%, the average stock has fallen far more. He’s actively looking to add companies. “The only stocks we’re adding to or buying new are those that reflect a recession because they are down 40% to 60% already,” he says.</p><p>It’s a good place to start.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market’s Rebound Fizzled Again. Why a Real Bottom Could Form Soon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market’s Rebound Fizzled Again. Why a Real Bottom Could Form Soon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-15 06:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-51665789304?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors seemingly can’t stop trying to pick a stock market bottom, no matter how bad the news—and it continues to backfire. The day for a real bounce, however, may be coming soon.Consider: This past...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-51665789304?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-51665789304?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2275665189","content_text":"Investors seemingly can’t stop trying to pick a stock market bottom, no matter how bad the news—and it continues to backfire. The day for a real bounce, however, may be coming soon.Consider: This past Thursday, September’s consumer inflation report came in much hotter than expected, with the core CPI hitting a 40-year high. The initial response was exactly what you’d expect—the S&P 500 traded down as much as 2.4%—but then it started rallying…and rallying. The index finally finished the day up 2.6%, the first time that’s happened since 2008.The rally had people talking about capitulation and bear-market bottoms, but alas, it was not to be. A rise in inflation expectations that showed up in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey on Friday pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2008.As a result, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% this past week, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.1% to close at its lowest level since July 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average,thanks to some solid earnings from Walgreens Boots Alliance (ticker: WBA), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and JPMorgan Chase(JPM), finished the week up 1.2%.Still, for the first time in a while, it feels like there’s hope. Part of that is simply the market starting to acknowledge the fact that the Federal Reserve will do what it said it would do—crank rates up as high as they need to go to tame inflation. There’s now more than a 70% chance the Fed raises rates over 4.5% by December, which would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.But the market is starting to act the way it does at lows. Take Thursday’s massive turnaround. The S&P 500 fell 2.4% before finishing up 2.6%, a five-point swing. That’s happened just nine other times since 1983, according to Bespoke Investment Group data. The wild swings often continued—the S&P 500 was down 3.5% on average over the following three months, but up an average of 14.6% over the next 12 months. “We’re not sure when or where the ultimate bottom in stocks will end up, but violent moves like yesterday tend to occur closer to lows than highs,” the folks at Bespoke explain.Other measures are starting to send similar messages. On Friday, noted Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at the Leuthold Group, the firm’s Very Long Term Momentum indicator, or VLT, reached an oversold level for the first time since 2016. It’s not a buy signal yet—that happens when the indicator turns up—but it does mean one “is now mathematically possible,” Ramsey writes. “Patience is advised. But this long-term oversold condition should help investors pull the trigger when the time comes.”It’s also easy to forget that the S&P 500 has already dropped 25% this year, a level that’s approaching the losses in an average recession, in which the market drops 30% to 40%, observes Rick Bookstaber, head of risk at Fabric. That means investors could rightly expect more losses, but a good portion of the index’s losses are likely behind it. “If you look at historical cases of bad market events and recessions, we’re more than halfway there in terms of the pain that the market has had,” he says.Indeed, it might even be time to start nibbling on individual stocks. Morgan Stanley portfolio manager Andrew Slimmon notes that while the market has dropped 25%, the average stock has fallen far more. He’s actively looking to add companies. “The only stocks we’re adding to or buying new are those that reflect a recession because they are down 40% to 60% already,” he says.It’s a good place to start.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980486312,"gmtCreate":1665796795037,"gmtModify":1676537665605,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ty","listText":"Ty","text":"Ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980486312","repostId":"2275952060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2275952060","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1665788512,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2275952060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-15 07:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall St Drops As Consumer Data Stokes Inflation Worry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275952060","media":"Reuters","summary":"* JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profit* S&P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declines* U.S. consumer se","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profit</p><p>* S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declines</p><p>* U.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. worsen</p><p>* Dow down 1.34%, S&amp;P 500 down 2.37%, Nasdaq down 3.08%</p><p>NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks dropped on Friday as worsening inflation expectations kept intact worries that the Federal Reserve&#39;s aggressive rate hike path could trigger a recession, while investors digested the early stages of earnings season.</p><p>In the last session of a volatile week, equities opened higher, then reversed course after data from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved in October but inflation expectations worsened as gasoline prices moved higher. Retail sales data also indicated resilience among consumers.</p><p>&#34;The main thrust for the market right now is higher interest rates, higher inflation and the Fed is going to continue to move its fed funds target higher,&#34; said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.</p><p>&#34;The narrative that we’ve seen peak inflation is not evident yet and that’s depressing the market.&#34;</p><p>On Thursday, a reading on consumer prices (CPI) showed inflation remained stubbornly high.</p><p>Fed officials have been largely in sync when commenting on the need to raise rates and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview the recent CPI data warrants a continued &#34;frontloading&#34; through larger three-quarter-percentage point steps, although that does not necessarily mean rates need to be raised above the central bank&#39;s most recent projections.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 403.89 points, or 1.34%, to 29,634.83, the S&amp;P 500 lost 86.84 points, or 2.37%, to 3,583.07 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 327.76 points, or 3.08%, to 10,321.39.</p><p>Friday&#39;s decline marked the 37th time the S&amp;P 500 recorded a gain or loss of at least 2% compared with only seven such session in all of 2021. For the week, the Dow gained 1.15%, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.56% and the Nasdaq fell 3.11%.</p><p>Corporate earnings season started to pick up steam and helped the bank index, which posted a narrow 0.03% gain after quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co, up 1.66%, Citigroup Inc, up 0.65%, and Wells Fargo &amp; Co, up 1.86%, boosted the shares of each.</p><p>&#34;The message I got from them is things are looking pretty good from an economic perspective despite the challenges but they increased loan-loss reserves just in anticipation that you are going to see some more slowing,&#34; said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.</p><p>UnitedHealth gained 0.63% as one of only three Dow components to move higher on the day after the health insurer posted better-than-expected quarterly results while raising its annual forecast.</p><p>Analysts now expect third-quarter profits for S&amp;P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Kroger Co shares dropped 7.32% after the supermarket chain said it would buy smaller rival Albertsons Companies Inc in a $24.6 billion deal.</p><p>Tesla Inc slumped 7.55% following media reports that the electric vehicle maker has put on hold plans to launch battery cell production at its plant outside Berlin due to technical issues.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.88 billion shares, compared with the 11.48 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.87-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 235 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall St Drops As Consumer Data Stokes Inflation Worry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall St Drops As Consumer Data Stokes Inflation Worry\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-15 07:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profit</p><p>* S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declines</p><p>* U.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. worsen</p><p>* Dow down 1.34%, S&amp;P 500 down 2.37%, Nasdaq down 3.08%</p><p>NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks dropped on Friday as worsening inflation expectations kept intact worries that the Federal Reserve&#39;s aggressive rate hike path could trigger a recession, while investors digested the early stages of earnings season.</p><p>In the last session of a volatile week, equities opened higher, then reversed course after data from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved in October but inflation expectations worsened as gasoline prices moved higher. Retail sales data also indicated resilience among consumers.</p><p>&#34;The main thrust for the market right now is higher interest rates, higher inflation and the Fed is going to continue to move its fed funds target higher,&#34; said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.</p><p>&#34;The narrative that we’ve seen peak inflation is not evident yet and that’s depressing the market.&#34;</p><p>On Thursday, a reading on consumer prices (CPI) showed inflation remained stubbornly high.</p><p>Fed officials have been largely in sync when commenting on the need to raise rates and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview the recent CPI data warrants a continued &#34;frontloading&#34; through larger three-quarter-percentage point steps, although that does not necessarily mean rates need to be raised above the central bank&#39;s most recent projections.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 403.89 points, or 1.34%, to 29,634.83, the S&amp;P 500 lost 86.84 points, or 2.37%, to 3,583.07 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 327.76 points, or 3.08%, to 10,321.39.</p><p>Friday&#39;s decline marked the 37th time the S&amp;P 500 recorded a gain or loss of at least 2% compared with only seven such session in all of 2021. For the week, the Dow gained 1.15%, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.56% and the Nasdaq fell 3.11%.</p><p>Corporate earnings season started to pick up steam and helped the bank index, which posted a narrow 0.03% gain after quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co, up 1.66%, Citigroup Inc, up 0.65%, and Wells Fargo &amp; Co, up 1.86%, boosted the shares of each.</p><p>&#34;The message I got from them is things are looking pretty good from an economic perspective despite the challenges but they increased loan-loss reserves just in anticipation that you are going to see some more slowing,&#34; said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.</p><p>UnitedHealth gained 0.63% as one of only three Dow components to move higher on the day after the health insurer posted better-than-expected quarterly results while raising its annual forecast.</p><p>Analysts now expect third-quarter profits for S&amp;P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Kroger Co shares dropped 7.32% after the supermarket chain said it would buy smaller rival Albertsons Companies Inc in a $24.6 billion deal.</p><p>Tesla Inc slumped 7.55% following media reports that the electric vehicle maker has put on hold plans to launch battery cell production at its plant outside Berlin due to technical issues.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.88 billion shares, compared with the 11.48 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.87-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 235 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","KR":"克罗格",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","WFC":"富国银行","C":"花旗",".DJI":"道琼斯","UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2275952060","content_text":"* JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profit* S&P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declines* U.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. worsen* Dow down 1.34%, S&P 500 down 2.37%, Nasdaq down 3.08%NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks dropped on Friday as worsening inflation expectations kept intact worries that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike path could trigger a recession, while investors digested the early stages of earnings season.In the last session of a volatile week, equities opened higher, then reversed course after data from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved in October but inflation expectations worsened as gasoline prices moved higher. Retail sales data also indicated resilience among consumers.\"The main thrust for the market right now is higher interest rates, higher inflation and the Fed is going to continue to move its fed funds target higher,\" said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.\"The narrative that we’ve seen peak inflation is not evident yet and that’s depressing the market.\"On Thursday, a reading on consumer prices (CPI) showed inflation remained stubbornly high.Fed officials have been largely in sync when commenting on the need to raise rates and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview the recent CPI data warrants a continued \"frontloading\" through larger three-quarter-percentage point steps, although that does not necessarily mean rates need to be raised above the central bank's most recent projections.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 403.89 points, or 1.34%, to 29,634.83, the S&P 500 lost 86.84 points, or 2.37%, to 3,583.07 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 327.76 points, or 3.08%, to 10,321.39.Friday's decline marked the 37th time the S&P 500 recorded a gain or loss of at least 2% compared with only seven such session in all of 2021. For the week, the Dow gained 1.15%, the S&P 500 lost 1.56% and the Nasdaq fell 3.11%.Corporate earnings season started to pick up steam and helped the bank index, which posted a narrow 0.03% gain after quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase & Co, up 1.66%, Citigroup Inc, up 0.65%, and Wells Fargo & Co, up 1.86%, boosted the shares of each.\"The message I got from them is things are looking pretty good from an economic perspective despite the challenges but they increased loan-loss reserves just in anticipation that you are going to see some more slowing,\" said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.UnitedHealth gained 0.63% as one of only three Dow components to move higher on the day after the health insurer posted better-than-expected quarterly results while raising its annual forecast.Analysts now expect third-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data.Kroger Co shares dropped 7.32% after the supermarket chain said it would buy smaller rival Albertsons Companies Inc in a $24.6 billion deal.Tesla Inc slumped 7.55% following media reports that the electric vehicle maker has put on hold plans to launch battery cell production at its plant outside Berlin due to technical issues.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.88 billion shares, compared with the 11.48 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.87-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 235 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980488522,"gmtCreate":1665796752467,"gmtModify":1676537665590,"author":{"id":"4125280586567492","authorId":"4125280586567492","name":"ljxrox","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b91e79b63bd48d8dc4dff42380b151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125280586567492","idStr":"4125280586567492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nah. It will continue to drop till at least next year.","listText":"Nah. It will continue to drop till at least next year.","text":"Nah. It will continue to drop till at least next year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980488522","repostId":"2275665189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}