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2022-09-25

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If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”

2022-09-24

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2022-09-23

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U.S. Stocks To Watch: FedEx, Costco, Credit Suisse And More

2022-09-23

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2022-09-22

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2022-09-22

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2022-09-20

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share","listText":"Like n share","text":"Like n share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911990763","repostId":"2269490734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269490734","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664066508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269490734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269490734","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269490734","content_text":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market's decline this past week following the Federal Reserve's most recent interest-rate hike announcement.To show why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model's track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market's subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University's finance professor Robert Shiller.In other words, the ability to predict the stock market's five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.Money illusionThese results are so surprising that it's important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years' corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it's only half the story.The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as \"inflation illusion\" -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.According to research conducted by Warr, inflation's impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed's latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.None of this means that the bear market shouldn't continue, or that equities aren't overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913545518,"gmtCreate":1664029530634,"gmtModify":1676537381254,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53dbfc35c0fb3aa5fa036547b15dfbf2","width":"1125","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":32,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913545518","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913139310,"gmtCreate":1663932690330,"gmtModify":1676537365798,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913139310","repostId":"2269872544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269872544","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1663924574,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269872544?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 17:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks To Watch: FedEx, Costco, Credit Suisse And More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269872544","media":"Benzinga","summary":"With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Friday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Friday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:</p><ul><li>Wall Street expects <b> </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INM\">InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc</a> to report a quarterly loss at $5.50 per share on revenue of $750.00 thousand before the opening bell. InMed Pharmaceuticals shares rose 1.2% to $7.00 in after-hours trading.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco Wholesale Corporation</a> reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday. Costco shares, however, fell 3.3% to $471.02 in the pre-market trading session.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDAP\">EDAP TMS S.A.</a> reported a public offering of American Depositary Shares. However, no size of the offering was disclosed. EDAP shares dropped 5.8% to $8.07 in after-hours trading.</li></ul><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx Corporation</a> said its adjusted earnings per share dropped to $3.44 for the quarter ended Aug 31 compared to $4.37 in the year-ago period, while revenue increased to $23.2 billion from $22 billion. FedEx also announced plans to repurchase $1.5 billion of its common stock during fiscal 2023. The company said it plans to repurchase $1 billion of its common stock in the second quarter. FedEx shares slipped 1% to $153.00 in the pre-market trading session.</li></ul><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse Group AG</a> shares slumped to a record low after the bank was forced to deny a Reuters report that it is considering exiting the US market, signaling that doubts still remain over the troubled lender’s upcoming strategy revamp. Credit Suisse shares fell 4.67% to $4.49 in premarket trading.</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks To Watch: FedEx, Costco, Credit Suisse And More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks To Watch: FedEx, Costco, Credit Suisse And More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-23 17:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Friday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:</p><ul><li>Wall Street expects <b> </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INM\">InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc</a> to report a quarterly loss at $5.50 per share on revenue of $750.00 thousand before the opening bell. InMed Pharmaceuticals shares rose 1.2% to $7.00 in after-hours trading.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco Wholesale Corporation</a> reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday. Costco shares, however, fell 3.3% to $471.02 in the pre-market trading session.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDAP\">EDAP TMS S.A.</a> reported a public offering of American Depositary Shares. However, no size of the offering was disclosed. EDAP shares dropped 5.8% to $8.07 in after-hours trading.</li></ul><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx Corporation</a> said its adjusted earnings per share dropped to $3.44 for the quarter ended Aug 31 compared to $4.37 in the year-ago period, while revenue increased to $23.2 billion from $22 billion. FedEx also announced plans to repurchase $1.5 billion of its common stock during fiscal 2023. The company said it plans to repurchase $1 billion of its common stock in the second quarter. FedEx shares slipped 1% to $153.00 in the pre-market trading session.</li></ul><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse Group AG</a> shares slumped to a record low after the bank was forced to deny a Reuters report that it is considering exiting the US market, signaling that doubts still remain over the troubled lender’s upcoming strategy revamp. Credit Suisse shares fell 4.67% to $4.49 in premarket trading.</li></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","FDX":"联邦快递","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4131":"航空货运与物流"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269872544","content_text":"With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Friday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Wall Street expects  InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc to report a quarterly loss at $5.50 per share on revenue of $750.00 thousand before the opening bell. InMed Pharmaceuticals shares rose 1.2% to $7.00 in after-hours trading.Costco Wholesale Corporation reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday. Costco shares, however, fell 3.3% to $471.02 in the pre-market trading session.EDAP TMS S.A. reported a public offering of American Depositary Shares. However, no size of the offering was disclosed. EDAP shares dropped 5.8% to $8.07 in after-hours trading.FedEx Corporation said its adjusted earnings per share dropped to $3.44 for the quarter ended Aug 31 compared to $4.37 in the year-ago period, while revenue increased to $23.2 billion from $22 billion. FedEx also announced plans to repurchase $1.5 billion of its common stock during fiscal 2023. The company said it plans to repurchase $1 billion of its common stock in the second quarter. FedEx shares slipped 1% to $153.00 in the pre-market trading session.Credit Suisse Group AG shares slumped to a record low after the bank was forced to deny a Reuters report that it is considering exiting the US market, signaling that doubts still remain over the troubled lender’s upcoming strategy revamp. Credit Suisse shares fell 4.67% to $4.49 in premarket trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913139056,"gmtCreate":1663932591775,"gmtModify":1676537365790,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10ab58203de7dc6f8ab7b3f7b1063a00","width":"1125","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913139056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919674714,"gmtCreate":1663804694039,"gmtModify":1676537338618,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17c07aef7fe1dfe76a1e035aec3ae3df","width":"1125","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919674714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919676975,"gmtCreate":1663804544697,"gmtModify":1676537338513,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a> Please fly high up&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a> Please fly high up&nbsp;","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ Please fly high up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ace21f5e917c535f964151e26847786","width":"1125","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919676975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910491752,"gmtCreate":1663656244276,"gmtModify":1676537309971,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910491752","repostId":"9910590350","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9910590350,"gmtCreate":1663638143271,"gmtModify":1676537306081,"author":{"id":"9000000000000342","authorId":"9000000000000342","name":"nimbly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a5f2c7d7652e6711ec37ca005bc8b25","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000342","authorIdStr":"9000000000000342"},"themes":[],"title":"3 E-Commerce Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade","htmlText":"There's no letup in online shopping's potential to generate rich returns for investors.While e-commerce was growing fast before the COVID-19 outbreak, the lockdown phase of the pandemic forced it into hyperdrive. 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Online sales surged 30% in 2020 compared to the year before and were up another 18% last year, putting e-commerce sales some 54% above where they stood before the global health crisis hit.Although online sales growth has slowed in 2022 from the breakneck pace that was previously being set, sales are still above pre-pandemic levels. Census Bureau year-to-date data shows that through the end of July, \"non-store\" sales have grown 11% over last year to $740 billion, or almost as much as online retailers tallied in all of 2019.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Buying goods and groceries onlin","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b95e2a96c58761ecb1e8a04ad1cd1f70","width":"700","height":"467"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910590350","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4091611057314000","authorId":"4091611057314000","name":"peroperopop","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd2205ae9c1dce833edf40135ec7fc7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091611057314000","authorIdStr":"4091611057314000"},"content":"good good good[Happy]","text":"good good good[Happy]","html":"good good good[Happy]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9913545518,"gmtCreate":1664029530634,"gmtModify":1676537381254,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53dbfc35c0fb3aa5fa036547b15dfbf2","width":"1125","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":32,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913545518","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910491752,"gmtCreate":1663656244276,"gmtModify":1676537309971,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910491752","repostId":"9910590350","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9910590350,"gmtCreate":1663638143271,"gmtModify":1676537306081,"author":{"id":"9000000000000342","authorId":"9000000000000342","name":"nimbly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a5f2c7d7652e6711ec37ca005bc8b25","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000342","authorIdStr":"9000000000000342"},"themes":[],"title":"3 E-Commerce Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade","htmlText":"There's no letup in online shopping's potential to generate rich returns for investors.While e-commerce was growing fast before the COVID-19 outbreak, the lockdown phase of the pandemic forced it into hyperdrive. Online sales surged 30% in 2020 compared to the year before and were up another 18% last year, putting e-commerce sales some 54% above where they stood before the global health crisis hit.Although online sales growth has slowed in 2022 from the breakneck pace that was previously being set, sales are still above pre-pandemic levels. Census Bureau year-to-date data shows that through the end of July, \"non-store\" sales have grown 11% over last year to $740 billion, or almost as much as online retailers tallied in all of 2019.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Buying goods and groceries onlin","listText":"There's no letup in online shopping's potential to generate rich returns for investors.While e-commerce was growing fast before the COVID-19 outbreak, the lockdown phase of the pandemic forced it into hyperdrive. Online sales surged 30% in 2020 compared to the year before and were up another 18% last year, putting e-commerce sales some 54% above where they stood before the global health crisis hit.Although online sales growth has slowed in 2022 from the breakneck pace that was previously being set, sales are still above pre-pandemic levels. Census Bureau year-to-date data shows that through the end of July, \"non-store\" sales have grown 11% over last year to $740 billion, or almost as much as online retailers tallied in all of 2019.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Buying goods and groceries onlin","text":"There's no letup in online shopping's potential to generate rich returns for investors.While e-commerce was growing fast before the COVID-19 outbreak, the lockdown phase of the pandemic forced it into hyperdrive. Online sales surged 30% in 2020 compared to the year before and were up another 18% last year, putting e-commerce sales some 54% above where they stood before the global health crisis hit.Although online sales growth has slowed in 2022 from the breakneck pace that was previously being set, sales are still above pre-pandemic levels. Census Bureau year-to-date data shows that through the end of July, \"non-store\" sales have grown 11% over last year to $740 billion, or almost as much as online retailers tallied in all of 2019.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Buying goods and groceries onlin","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b95e2a96c58761ecb1e8a04ad1cd1f70","width":"700","height":"467"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910590350","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4091611057314000","authorId":"4091611057314000","name":"peroperopop","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd2205ae9c1dce833edf40135ec7fc7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091611057314000","authorIdStr":"4091611057314000"},"content":"good good good[Happy]","text":"good good good[Happy]","html":"good good good[Happy]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913139310,"gmtCreate":1663932690330,"gmtModify":1676537365798,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913139310","repostId":"2269872544","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911990763,"gmtCreate":1664106194552,"gmtModify":1676537391272,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n share","listText":"Like n share","text":"Like n share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911990763","repostId":"2269490734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269490734","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664066508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269490734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269490734","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269490734","content_text":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market's decline this past week following the Federal Reserve's most recent interest-rate hike announcement.To show why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model's track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market's subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University's finance professor Robert Shiller.In other words, the ability to predict the stock market's five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.Money illusionThese results are so surprising that it's important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years' corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it's only half the story.The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as \"inflation illusion\" -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.According to research conducted by Warr, inflation's impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed's latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.None of this means that the bear market shouldn't continue, or that equities aren't overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919676975,"gmtCreate":1663804544697,"gmtModify":1676537338513,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a> Please fly high up&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a> Please fly high up&nbsp;","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ Please fly high up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ace21f5e917c535f964151e26847786","width":"1125","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919676975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919674714,"gmtCreate":1663804694039,"gmtModify":1676537338618,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17c07aef7fe1dfe76a1e035aec3ae3df","width":"1125","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919674714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915754640,"gmtCreate":1665114360880,"gmtModify":1676537560105,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$DJIA(.DJI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/074014e4dc9c2bc0606636b08d18a515","width":"1125","height":"1688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915754640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913139056,"gmtCreate":1663932591775,"gmtModify":1676537365790,"author":{"id":"4126587853925912","authorId":"4126587853925912","name":"Felix1006","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4126587853925912","authorIdStr":"4126587853925912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10ab58203de7dc6f8ab7b3f7b1063a00","width":"1125","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913139056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}