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2022-11-18

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Is the global stock market rally sustainable? Several institutions, including BlackRock, "hit the spot"

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946474629","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963718893,"gmtCreate":1668756476212,"gmtModify":1676538108739,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4131021788212202","idStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963718893","repostId":"1174099550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174099550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1668751348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174099550?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 14:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the global stock market rally sustainable? Several institutions, including BlackRock, \"hit the spot\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174099550","media":"Wind万得","summary":"全球股市最近上涨并企稳，因市场预期随着通胀显示出见顶迹象，各国央行将很快开始放缓大举加息的步伐，但策略师们仍不相信这种反弹会持续下去。上周美国公布的10月通胀数据低于预期后，市场受到提振，促使投资者押","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Global stock markets have rallied and stabilized recently on expectations that central banks will soon begin to slow the pace of aggressive rate hike as inflation shows signs of peaking, but strategists remain unconvinced that the rally will continue.</p><p>Markets got a boost after last week's U.S. inflation data for October fell short of expectations, prompting investors to bet that Fed policymakers will soon have to slow or halt monetary policy tightening measures designed to keep inflation down. The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day gain since the pandemic rebound in early 2020.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller said Monday that the market had overestimated the importance of one data point and that the Fed had \"some way to go\" on rate hike. Some analysts have echoed the same sentiment in recent days.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The labor constraints driving wage growth and core inflation are likely to last longer than markets reflect, the Investment Institute said in a note. While the rise in stocks suggests that markets are reaffirming hopes for a soft landing for the Fed, this sentiment is not shared by top strategists at BlackRock, who remain underweight in developed-market stocks.</p><p>\"U.S. stocks have jumped multiple times this year amid expectations that the Federal Reserve could be close to ending the fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, allowing the economy to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession,\" said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, and his team.</p><p>\"We believe those hopes will be dashed again as the Fed pushes ahead with excessive policy tightening. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% from its October low, and we believe that shares are worse at reflecting the extent of the recession, while earnings estimates have been lowered.\"</p><p>At the heart of BlackRock's surprise estimate downgrade is the earnings estimate cut. While the consensus expectation for earnings growth to fall from 10% at the start of 2022 to just over 4% in 2023, the world's largest investment manager expects zero earnings growth,</p><p>Boivin's team said, \"We need to see further declines in the stock market, or more good news of easing inflation, to have a positive impact on the stock market.\"</p><p>Dan Avigad, partner and portfolio manager at Lansdowne Partners, echoed the sentiment on Wednesday, telling the Sohn London investment conference that corporate margins will also have to compress from current \"very high levels\" as central banks seek to tame demand to tame inflation.</p><p>\"If we look back at the trends over the last few decades, our earnings are still around 20% above the long-term trend, so it seems to me that the earnings trajectory of the broader equity market is likely 15-20% overvalued,\" Avigad said.</p><p>Wall Street's rally last Thursday was the S&P 500's 15th-biggest one-day gain since the mid-1960s, according to Capital Economics. Thomas Mathews, a senior market economist, said in a note that although on the surface, there is still a possibility of further stock market gains if a pullback in inflation does lead to the end of monetary tightening, the company remains pessimistic on the stock market due to the risks to economic growth and profit-making prospects.</p><p>Capital Economics expects a mild recession in the U.S. economy and contractions in several major developed markets. Mathews believes that this macroeconomic outcome has not been fully accounted for in the stock market based on consensus profit expectations.</p><p>\"The valuation of the US stock market has fallen sharply, but judging from the experience of the recent US economic recession, the P/E of the S&P 500 index fell further before and after the recession began, although the index was already low due to the previous rate hike, and the real safe asset yield still declined,\" Mathews said.</p><p>\"All of this shows us that the sustainability of the latest rally depends not only on inflation, but at least as much on upcoming economic growth and corporate profit figures.\"</p><p>But for now, Capital Economics believes that corporate results have disappointed markets and further weighed on stocks. The company predicts the S&P 500 will fall to a low of 3,200 by mid-2023, about 20% below current levels, and other equity markets around the world will see losses of similar magnitude.</p><p>However, not everyone shares this view. Patrick Spencer, vice chairman of equities at Baird, said he had not seen any data suggesting the U.S. economy could be in recession, and hinted that last week's inflation data pointed to a \"soft landing\" for the U.S. economy.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the global stock market rally sustainable? Several institutions, including BlackRock, \"hit the spot\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the global stock market rally sustainable? Several institutions, including BlackRock, \"hit the spot\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-18 14:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Global stock markets have rallied and stabilized recently on expectations that central banks will soon begin to slow the pace of aggressive rate hike as inflation shows signs of peaking, but strategists remain unconvinced that the rally will continue.</p><p>Markets got a boost after last week's U.S. inflation data for October fell short of expectations, prompting investors to bet that Fed policymakers will soon have to slow or halt monetary policy tightening measures designed to keep inflation down. The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day gain since the pandemic rebound in early 2020.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller said Monday that the market had overestimated the importance of one data point and that the Fed had \"some way to go\" on rate hike. Some analysts have echoed the same sentiment in recent days.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The labor constraints driving wage growth and core inflation are likely to last longer than markets reflect, the Investment Institute said in a note. While the rise in stocks suggests that markets are reaffirming hopes for a soft landing for the Fed, this sentiment is not shared by top strategists at BlackRock, who remain underweight in developed-market stocks.</p><p>\"U.S. stocks have jumped multiple times this year amid expectations that the Federal Reserve could be close to ending the fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, allowing the economy to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession,\" said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, and his team.</p><p>\"We believe those hopes will be dashed again as the Fed pushes ahead with excessive policy tightening. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% from its October low, and we believe that shares are worse at reflecting the extent of the recession, while earnings estimates have been lowered.\"</p><p>At the heart of BlackRock's surprise estimate downgrade is the earnings estimate cut. While the consensus expectation for earnings growth to fall from 10% at the start of 2022 to just over 4% in 2023, the world's largest investment manager expects zero earnings growth,</p><p>Boivin's team said, \"We need to see further declines in the stock market, or more good news of easing inflation, to have a positive impact on the stock market.\"</p><p>Dan Avigad, partner and portfolio manager at Lansdowne Partners, echoed the sentiment on Wednesday, telling the Sohn London investment conference that corporate margins will also have to compress from current \"very high levels\" as central banks seek to tame demand to tame inflation.</p><p>\"If we look back at the trends over the last few decades, our earnings are still around 20% above the long-term trend, so it seems to me that the earnings trajectory of the broader equity market is likely 15-20% overvalued,\" Avigad said.</p><p>Wall Street's rally last Thursday was the S&P 500's 15th-biggest one-day gain since the mid-1960s, according to Capital Economics. Thomas Mathews, a senior market economist, said in a note that although on the surface, there is still a possibility of further stock market gains if a pullback in inflation does lead to the end of monetary tightening, the company remains pessimistic on the stock market due to the risks to economic growth and profit-making prospects.</p><p>Capital Economics expects a mild recession in the U.S. economy and contractions in several major developed markets. Mathews believes that this macroeconomic outcome has not been fully accounted for in the stock market based on consensus profit expectations.</p><p>\"The valuation of the US stock market has fallen sharply, but judging from the experience of the recent US economic recession, the P/E of the S&P 500 index fell further before and after the recession began, although the index was already low due to the previous rate hike, and the real safe asset yield still declined,\" Mathews said.</p><p>\"All of this shows us that the sustainability of the latest rally depends not only on inflation, but at least as much on upcoming economic growth and corporate profit figures.\"</p><p>But for now, Capital Economics believes that corporate results have disappointed markets and further weighed on stocks. The company predicts the S&P 500 will fall to a low of 3,200 by mid-2023, about 20% below current levels, and other equity markets around the world will see losses of similar magnitude.</p><p>However, not everyone shares this view. Patrick Spencer, vice chairman of equities at Baird, said he had not seen any data suggesting the U.S. economy could be in recession, and hinted that last week's inflation data pointed to a \"soft landing\" for the U.S. economy.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BLK":"贝莱德","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174099550","content_text":"全球股市最近上涨并企稳，因市场预期随着通胀显示出见顶迹象，各国央行将很快开始放缓大举加息的步伐，但策略师们仍不相信这种反弹会持续下去。上周美国公布的10月通胀数据低于预期后，市场受到提振，促使投资者押注美联储决策者很快将不得不放慢或停止货币政策收紧措施，这些措施旨在压低通胀。标准普尔500指数创下了自2020年初疫情反弹以来的最大单日涨幅。不过，美联储理事沃勒周一表示，市场高估了一个数据点的重要性，美联储在加息方面还有“一段路要走”。最近几天，一些分析人士也表达了同样的看法。贝莱德美国投资研究所(Investment Institute)在一份报告中说，推动工资增长和核心通胀的劳动力约束可能比市场所反映的更为持久。尽管股市上升表明，市场重申了美联储软着陆的希望，但贝莱德(BlackRock)的顶级策略师并不认同这一观点，他们仍然减持发达市场股票。贝莱德投资研究所主管Jean Boivin及其团队表示:\"美国股市今年多次跳涨，因市场预期美联储可能接近结束上世纪80年代以来最快的加息周期，让经济实现软着陆，避免陷入衰退。\"“我们认为，随着美联储推进政策过度紧缩，这些希望将再次破灭。标准普尔500指数从10月的低点上涨了10%以上，我们认为，股价在反映经济衰退的程度上更差了，而盈利预期也被下调了。”贝莱德预期的意外下调的核心是盈利预期下调。尽管市场普遍预期收益增长将从2022年初的10%降至2023年的略高于4%，但这家全球最大的投资管理公司预计收益将为零增长、Boivin的团队称，\"我们需要看到股市进一步下跌，或更多通胀缓和的好消息，才能对股市产生正面影响。\"Lansdowne Partners合伙人兼投资组合经理Dan Avigad周三对上述观点表示赞同，他在Sohn London投资会议上表示，随着各国央行寻求抑制需求以抑制通胀，企业利润率也将不得不从目前\"非常高的水准\"压缩。Avigad说:“如果我们回顾过去几十年的趋势，我们的收益仍比长期趋势高出20%左右，所以在我看来，更广泛的股票市场的收益轨迹很可能被高估了15-20%。”根据凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的数据，上周四华尔街的上涨是标普500指数自上世纪60年代中期以来第15大单日涨幅。资深市场经济学家Thomas Mathews在一份报告中称，尽管从表面上看，如果通胀回落确实导致货币紧缩政策结束，股市仍有进一步上涨的可能，但由于经济增长和获利前景面临风险，该公司仍对股市持悲观看法。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)预计美国经济将出现温和衰退，几个主要发达市场将出现收缩。Mathews认为，从普遍的获利预期来看，这一宏观经济结果并未在股市中得到充分考虑。\"美国股市估值已大幅下跌，但从近期美国经济衰退的经验来看，标普500指数的市盈率在衰退开始前后进一步下跌，尽管由于之前的加息，该指数已处于低位，且实际安全资产收益率仍有所下降，\" Mathews称。“所有这一切都向我们表明，最近一轮反弹的可持续性，不仅取决于通胀，还至少同样取决于即将出炉的经济增长和企业利润数据。”但就目前而言，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)认为，企业业绩令市场失望，并进一步拖累股市。该公司预测，到2023年年中，标准普尔500指数将跌至3,200点的低点，较当前水平低20%左右，全球其他股市也将出现类似幅度的跌幅。然而，并不是所有人都认同这一观点。Baird股票部副主席Patrick Spencer表示，他还没有看到任何数据显示美国经济可能陷入衰退，并暗示上周的通胀数据表明美国经济有望\"软着陆\"。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9942209012,"gmtCreate":1681223220736,"gmtModify":1681223225633,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4131021788212202","authorIdStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":32,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942209012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946474629,"gmtCreate":1681043794162,"gmtModify":1681043798734,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4131021788212202","authorIdStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] 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[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942338146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963718893,"gmtCreate":1668756476212,"gmtModify":1676538108739,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4131021788212202","authorIdStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963718893","repostId":"1174099550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174099550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1668751348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174099550?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 14:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the global stock market rally sustainable? Several institutions, including BlackRock, \"hit the spot\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174099550","media":"Wind万得","summary":"全球股市最近上涨并企稳，因市场预期随着通胀显示出见顶迹象，各国央行将很快开始放缓大举加息的步伐，但策略师们仍不相信这种反弹会持续下去。上周美国公布的10月通胀数据低于预期后，市场受到提振，促使投资者押","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Global stock markets have rallied and stabilized recently on expectations that central banks will soon begin to slow the pace of aggressive rate hike as inflation shows signs of peaking, but strategists remain unconvinced that the rally will continue.</p><p>Markets got a boost after last week's U.S. inflation data for October fell short of expectations, prompting investors to bet that Fed policymakers will soon have to slow or halt monetary policy tightening measures designed to keep inflation down. The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day gain since the pandemic rebound in early 2020.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller said Monday that the market had overestimated the importance of one data point and that the Fed had \"some way to go\" on rate hike. Some analysts have echoed the same sentiment in recent days.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The labor constraints driving wage growth and core inflation are likely to last longer than markets reflect, the Investment Institute said in a note. While the rise in stocks suggests that markets are reaffirming hopes for a soft landing for the Fed, this sentiment is not shared by top strategists at BlackRock, who remain underweight in developed-market stocks.</p><p>\"U.S. stocks have jumped multiple times this year amid expectations that the Federal Reserve could be close to ending the fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, allowing the economy to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession,\" said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, and his team.</p><p>\"We believe those hopes will be dashed again as the Fed pushes ahead with excessive policy tightening. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% from its October low, and we believe that shares are worse at reflecting the extent of the recession, while earnings estimates have been lowered.\"</p><p>At the heart of BlackRock's surprise estimate downgrade is the earnings estimate cut. While the consensus expectation for earnings growth to fall from 10% at the start of 2022 to just over 4% in 2023, the world's largest investment manager expects zero earnings growth,</p><p>Boivin's team said, \"We need to see further declines in the stock market, or more good news of easing inflation, to have a positive impact on the stock market.\"</p><p>Dan Avigad, partner and portfolio manager at Lansdowne Partners, echoed the sentiment on Wednesday, telling the Sohn London investment conference that corporate margins will also have to compress from current \"very high levels\" as central banks seek to tame demand to tame inflation.</p><p>\"If we look back at the trends over the last few decades, our earnings are still around 20% above the long-term trend, so it seems to me that the earnings trajectory of the broader equity market is likely 15-20% overvalued,\" Avigad said.</p><p>Wall Street's rally last Thursday was the S&P 500's 15th-biggest one-day gain since the mid-1960s, according to Capital Economics. Thomas Mathews, a senior market economist, said in a note that although on the surface, there is still a possibility of further stock market gains if a pullback in inflation does lead to the end of monetary tightening, the company remains pessimistic on the stock market due to the risks to economic growth and profit-making prospects.</p><p>Capital Economics expects a mild recession in the U.S. economy and contractions in several major developed markets. Mathews believes that this macroeconomic outcome has not been fully accounted for in the stock market based on consensus profit expectations.</p><p>\"The valuation of the US stock market has fallen sharply, but judging from the experience of the recent US economic recession, the P/E of the S&P 500 index fell further before and after the recession began, although the index was already low due to the previous rate hike, and the real safe asset yield still declined,\" Mathews said.</p><p>\"All of this shows us that the sustainability of the latest rally depends not only on inflation, but at least as much on upcoming economic growth and corporate profit figures.\"</p><p>But for now, Capital Economics believes that corporate results have disappointed markets and further weighed on stocks. The company predicts the S&P 500 will fall to a low of 3,200 by mid-2023, about 20% below current levels, and other equity markets around the world will see losses of similar magnitude.</p><p>However, not everyone shares this view. Patrick Spencer, vice chairman of equities at Baird, said he had not seen any data suggesting the U.S. economy could be in recession, and hinted that last week's inflation data pointed to a \"soft landing\" for the U.S. economy.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the global stock market rally sustainable? Several institutions, including BlackRock, \"hit the spot\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the global stock market rally sustainable? Several institutions, including BlackRock, \"hit the spot\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-18 14:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Global stock markets have rallied and stabilized recently on expectations that central banks will soon begin to slow the pace of aggressive rate hike as inflation shows signs of peaking, but strategists remain unconvinced that the rally will continue.</p><p>Markets got a boost after last week's U.S. inflation data for October fell short of expectations, prompting investors to bet that Fed policymakers will soon have to slow or halt monetary policy tightening measures designed to keep inflation down. The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day gain since the pandemic rebound in early 2020.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller said Monday that the market had overestimated the importance of one data point and that the Fed had \"some way to go\" on rate hike. Some analysts have echoed the same sentiment in recent days.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The labor constraints driving wage growth and core inflation are likely to last longer than markets reflect, the Investment Institute said in a note. While the rise in stocks suggests that markets are reaffirming hopes for a soft landing for the Fed, this sentiment is not shared by top strategists at BlackRock, who remain underweight in developed-market stocks.</p><p>\"U.S. stocks have jumped multiple times this year amid expectations that the Federal Reserve could be close to ending the fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, allowing the economy to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession,\" said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, and his team.</p><p>\"We believe those hopes will be dashed again as the Fed pushes ahead with excessive policy tightening. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% from its October low, and we believe that shares are worse at reflecting the extent of the recession, while earnings estimates have been lowered.\"</p><p>At the heart of BlackRock's surprise estimate downgrade is the earnings estimate cut. While the consensus expectation for earnings growth to fall from 10% at the start of 2022 to just over 4% in 2023, the world's largest investment manager expects zero earnings growth,</p><p>Boivin's team said, \"We need to see further declines in the stock market, or more good news of easing inflation, to have a positive impact on the stock market.\"</p><p>Dan Avigad, partner and portfolio manager at Lansdowne Partners, echoed the sentiment on Wednesday, telling the Sohn London investment conference that corporate margins will also have to compress from current \"very high levels\" as central banks seek to tame demand to tame inflation.</p><p>\"If we look back at the trends over the last few decades, our earnings are still around 20% above the long-term trend, so it seems to me that the earnings trajectory of the broader equity market is likely 15-20% overvalued,\" Avigad said.</p><p>Wall Street's rally last Thursday was the S&P 500's 15th-biggest one-day gain since the mid-1960s, according to Capital Economics. Thomas Mathews, a senior market economist, said in a note that although on the surface, there is still a possibility of further stock market gains if a pullback in inflation does lead to the end of monetary tightening, the company remains pessimistic on the stock market due to the risks to economic growth and profit-making prospects.</p><p>Capital Economics expects a mild recession in the U.S. economy and contractions in several major developed markets. Mathews believes that this macroeconomic outcome has not been fully accounted for in the stock market based on consensus profit expectations.</p><p>\"The valuation of the US stock market has fallen sharply, but judging from the experience of the recent US economic recession, the P/E of the S&P 500 index fell further before and after the recession began, although the index was already low due to the previous rate hike, and the real safe asset yield still declined,\" Mathews said.</p><p>\"All of this shows us that the sustainability of the latest rally depends not only on inflation, but at least as much on upcoming economic growth and corporate profit figures.\"</p><p>But for now, Capital Economics believes that corporate results have disappointed markets and further weighed on stocks. The company predicts the S&P 500 will fall to a low of 3,200 by mid-2023, about 20% below current levels, and other equity markets around the world will see losses of similar magnitude.</p><p>However, not everyone shares this view. Patrick Spencer, vice chairman of equities at Baird, said he had not seen any data suggesting the U.S. economy could be in recession, and hinted that last week's inflation data pointed to a \"soft landing\" for the U.S. economy.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BLK":"贝莱德","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174099550","content_text":"全球股市最近上涨并企稳，因市场预期随着通胀显示出见顶迹象，各国央行将很快开始放缓大举加息的步伐，但策略师们仍不相信这种反弹会持续下去。上周美国公布的10月通胀数据低于预期后，市场受到提振，促使投资者押注美联储决策者很快将不得不放慢或停止货币政策收紧措施，这些措施旨在压低通胀。标准普尔500指数创下了自2020年初疫情反弹以来的最大单日涨幅。不过，美联储理事沃勒周一表示，市场高估了一个数据点的重要性，美联储在加息方面还有“一段路要走”。最近几天，一些分析人士也表达了同样的看法。贝莱德美国投资研究所(Investment Institute)在一份报告中说，推动工资增长和核心通胀的劳动力约束可能比市场所反映的更为持久。尽管股市上升表明，市场重申了美联储软着陆的希望，但贝莱德(BlackRock)的顶级策略师并不认同这一观点，他们仍然减持发达市场股票。贝莱德投资研究所主管Jean Boivin及其团队表示:\"美国股市今年多次跳涨，因市场预期美联储可能接近结束上世纪80年代以来最快的加息周期，让经济实现软着陆，避免陷入衰退。\"“我们认为，随着美联储推进政策过度紧缩，这些希望将再次破灭。标准普尔500指数从10月的低点上涨了10%以上，我们认为，股价在反映经济衰退的程度上更差了，而盈利预期也被下调了。”贝莱德预期的意外下调的核心是盈利预期下调。尽管市场普遍预期收益增长将从2022年初的10%降至2023年的略高于4%，但这家全球最大的投资管理公司预计收益将为零增长、Boivin的团队称，\"我们需要看到股市进一步下跌，或更多通胀缓和的好消息，才能对股市产生正面影响。\"Lansdowne Partners合伙人兼投资组合经理Dan Avigad周三对上述观点表示赞同，他在Sohn London投资会议上表示，随着各国央行寻求抑制需求以抑制通胀，企业利润率也将不得不从目前\"非常高的水准\"压缩。Avigad说:“如果我们回顾过去几十年的趋势，我们的收益仍比长期趋势高出20%左右，所以在我看来，更广泛的股票市场的收益轨迹很可能被高估了15-20%。”根据凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的数据，上周四华尔街的上涨是标普500指数自上世纪60年代中期以来第15大单日涨幅。资深市场经济学家Thomas Mathews在一份报告中称，尽管从表面上看，如果通胀回落确实导致货币紧缩政策结束，股市仍有进一步上涨的可能，但由于经济增长和获利前景面临风险，该公司仍对股市持悲观看法。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)预计美国经济将出现温和衰退，几个主要发达市场将出现收缩。Mathews认为，从普遍的获利预期来看，这一宏观经济结果并未在股市中得到充分考虑。\"美国股市估值已大幅下跌，但从近期美国经济衰退的经验来看，标普500指数的市盈率在衰退开始前后进一步下跌，尽管由于之前的加息，该指数已处于低位，且实际安全资产收益率仍有所下降，\" Mathews称。“所有这一切都向我们表明，最近一轮反弹的可持续性，不仅取决于通胀，还至少同样取决于即将出炉的经济增长和企业利润数据。”但就目前而言，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)认为，企业业绩令市场失望，并进一步拖累股市。该公司预测，到2023年年中，标准普尔500指数将跌至3,200点的低点，较当前水平低20%左右，全球其他股市也将出现类似幅度的跌幅。然而，并不是所有人都认同这一观点。Baird股票部副主席Patrick Spencer表示，他还没有看到任何数据显示美国经济可能陷入衰退，并暗示上周的通胀数据表明美国经济有望\"软着陆\"。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255907512492320,"gmtCreate":1703511726795,"gmtModify":1703511730992,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4131021788212202","authorIdStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhiiiiii","listText":"Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhiiiiii","text":"Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhiiiiii","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255907512492320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187998678646904,"gmtCreate":1686923635853,"gmtModify":1686923639912,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4131021788212202","authorIdStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkii","listText":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkii","text":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkii","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187998678646904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187642770841632,"gmtCreate":1686839029703,"gmtModify":1686839033710,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4131021788212202","authorIdStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk","listText":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk","text":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187642770841632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186500012404744,"gmtCreate":1686571503399,"gmtModify":1686571507292,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4131021788212202","authorIdStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kkkkkk(kiiikkkkkkkkkkk","listText":"Kkkkkk(kiiikkkkkkkkkkk","text":"Kkkkkk(kiiikkkkkkkkkkk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186500012404744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186162988114016,"gmtCreate":1686489224395,"gmtModify":1686489228698,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4131021788212202","authorIdStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk","listText":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk","text":"Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186162988114016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}