sky33 personal page - To The Moon

sky33

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2023-12-25

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2023-06-16

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2023-06-15

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2023-06-14

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2023-06-12

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2023-06-11

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2023-06-10

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2023-06-08

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2023-04-14

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2023-04-13

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2023-04-12

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2023-04-11

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2023-04-10

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2023-04-09

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2022-11-18

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[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942338146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963718893,"gmtCreate":1668756476212,"gmtModify":1676538108739,"author":{"id":"4131021788212202","authorId":"4131021788212202","name":"sky33","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4131021788212202","idStr":"4131021788212202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963718893","repostId":"1174099550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174099550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1668751348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174099550?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 14:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Is the Global Stock Market Rally Sustainable? Many institutions including BlackRock \"hit the nail on the head\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174099550","media":"Wind万得","summary":"全球股市最近上涨并企稳，因市场预期随着通胀显示出见顶迹象，各国央行将很快开始放缓大举加息的步伐，但策略师们仍不相信这种反弹会持续下去。上周美国公布的10月通胀数据低于预期后，市场受到提振，促使投资者押","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Global stocks have risen and stabilized recently on expectations that central banks will soon begin to slow the pace of aggressive rate hike as inflation shows signs of peaking, but strategists remain unconvinced that the rally will last.</p><p>Markets received a boost after lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for October last week, prompting investors to bet that Fed policymakers will soon have to slow or halt monetary policy tightening measures aimed at keeping inflation down. The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day gain since the pandemic rebounded in early 2020.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller said on Monday that the market overestimated the importance of a data point and that the Fed still has \"some way to go\" in terms of rate hike. In recent days, some analysts have expressed the same view.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The labor constraints driving wage growth and core inflation are likely to be more persistent than markets reflect, the Investment Institute said in a note. While the rise in stocks suggests the market has reaffirmed hopes for a soft landing from the Federal Reserve, this view is not shared by top strategists at BlackRock, who are still underweighting developed market stocks.</p><p>\"U.S. stocks have jumped several times this year on expectations that the Federal Reserve may be close to ending its fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, allowing the economy to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession,\" said Jean Boivin, director of BlackRock Investment Research Institute, and his team.</p><p>\"We think those hopes will be dashed again as the Fed moves ahead with excessive policy tightening. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% from its October lows, and we believe stock prices are worse in reflecting the recession, while earnings expectations have also been cut.\"</p><p>At the heart of the surprise downward adjustment to BlackRock's expectations is a downward adjustment to earnings. While consensus expectations for earnings growth to fall from 10% in early 2022 to just over 4% in 2023, the world's largest investment manager expects zero earnings growth,</p><p>Boivin's team said, \"We need to see further declines in stocks, or more good news of easing inflation, to have a positive impact on stocks.\"</p><p>Dan Avigad, partner and portfolio manager at Lansdowne Partners, agreed on Wednesday, saying at the Sohn London investment conference that as central banks seek to curb demand to curb inflation, corporate profit margins will also have to move from the current \"very high level\" compression.</p><p>\"If we look back at trends over the past few decades, our earnings are still about 20% above the long-term trend, so it seems to me that the earnings trajectory of the broader stock market is likely 15-20% overvalued,\" Avigad said.</p><p>Last Thursday's rally on Wall Street was the S&P 500's 15th largest one-day gain since the mid-1960s, according to Capital Economics. Senior market economist Thomas Mathews said in a note that although on the surface, there is still the possibility of further gains in stocks if a pullback in inflation does lead to the end of monetary tightening, the company remains pessimistic on stocks due to risks to economic growth and earnings prospects.</p><p>Capital Economics expects a mild recession in the U.S. economy and contractions in several major developed markets. Mathews believes that this macroeconomic outcome has not been fully considered in the stock market from the perspective of general profit expectations.</p><p>\"U.S. stock valuations have fallen sharply, but judging from the experience of recent U.S. recessions, the P/E of the S&P 500 has fallen further around the start of the recession, although the index has been low due to previous rate hike and real safe asset yields have still declined,\" Mathews said.</p><p>\"All of this shows us that the sustainability of the latest rally depends not only on inflation, but also at least as much on the upcoming economic growth and corporate profit data.\"</p><p>But for now, Capital Economics believes that corporate results have disappointed markets and further dragged stocks down. The firm forecasts that the S&P 500 will fall to a low of 3,200 by mid-2023, about 20% below current levels, and other stock markets around the world will see similar declines.</p><p>However, not everyone agrees with this view. Patrick Spencer, vice chairman of Baird's equity department, said he had not seen any data suggesting that the U.S. economy could fall into recession, suggesting last week's inflation data suggested the U.S. economy was on track for a \"soft landing.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Global Stock Market Rally Sustainable? Many institutions including BlackRock \"hit the nail on the head\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Global Stock Market Rally Sustainable? Many institutions including BlackRock \"hit the nail on the head\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-18 14:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Global stocks have risen and stabilized recently on expectations that central banks will soon begin to slow the pace of aggressive rate hike as inflation shows signs of peaking, but strategists remain unconvinced that the rally will last.</p><p>Markets received a boost after lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for October last week, prompting investors to bet that Fed policymakers will soon have to slow or halt monetary policy tightening measures aimed at keeping inflation down. The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day gain since the pandemic rebounded in early 2020.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller said on Monday that the market overestimated the importance of a data point and that the Fed still has \"some way to go\" in terms of rate hike. In recent days, some analysts have expressed the same view.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The labor constraints driving wage growth and core inflation are likely to be more persistent than markets reflect, the Investment Institute said in a note. While the rise in stocks suggests the market has reaffirmed hopes for a soft landing from the Federal Reserve, this view is not shared by top strategists at BlackRock, who are still underweighting developed market stocks.</p><p>\"U.S. stocks have jumped several times this year on expectations that the Federal Reserve may be close to ending its fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, allowing the economy to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession,\" said Jean Boivin, director of BlackRock Investment Research Institute, and his team.</p><p>\"We think those hopes will be dashed again as the Fed moves ahead with excessive policy tightening. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% from its October lows, and we believe stock prices are worse in reflecting the recession, while earnings expectations have also been cut.\"</p><p>At the heart of the surprise downward adjustment to BlackRock's expectations is a downward adjustment to earnings. While consensus expectations for earnings growth to fall from 10% in early 2022 to just over 4% in 2023, the world's largest investment manager expects zero earnings growth,</p><p>Boivin's team said, \"We need to see further declines in stocks, or more good news of easing inflation, to have a positive impact on stocks.\"</p><p>Dan Avigad, partner and portfolio manager at Lansdowne Partners, agreed on Wednesday, saying at the Sohn London investment conference that as central banks seek to curb demand to curb inflation, corporate profit margins will also have to move from the current \"very high level\" compression.</p><p>\"If we look back at trends over the past few decades, our earnings are still about 20% above the long-term trend, so it seems to me that the earnings trajectory of the broader stock market is likely 15-20% overvalued,\" Avigad said.</p><p>Last Thursday's rally on Wall Street was the S&P 500's 15th largest one-day gain since the mid-1960s, according to Capital Economics. Senior market economist Thomas Mathews said in a note that although on the surface, there is still the possibility of further gains in stocks if a pullback in inflation does lead to the end of monetary tightening, the company remains pessimistic on stocks due to risks to economic growth and earnings prospects.</p><p>Capital Economics expects a mild recession in the U.S. economy and contractions in several major developed markets. Mathews believes that this macroeconomic outcome has not been fully considered in the stock market from the perspective of general profit expectations.</p><p>\"U.S. stock valuations have fallen sharply, but judging from the experience of recent U.S. recessions, the P/E of the S&P 500 has fallen further around the start of the recession, although the index has been low due to previous rate hike and real safe asset yields have still declined,\" Mathews said.</p><p>\"All of this shows us that the sustainability of the latest rally depends not only on inflation, but also at least as much on the upcoming economic growth and corporate profit data.\"</p><p>But for now, Capital Economics believes that corporate results have disappointed markets and further dragged stocks down. The firm forecasts that the S&P 500 will fall to a low of 3,200 by mid-2023, about 20% below current levels, and other stock markets around the world will see similar declines.</p><p>However, not everyone agrees with this view. Patrick Spencer, vice chairman of Baird's equity department, said he had not seen any data suggesting that the U.S. economy could fall into recession, suggesting last week's inflation data suggested the U.S. economy was on track for a \"soft landing.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"BLK":"贝莱德","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174099550","content_text":"全球股市最近上涨并企稳，因市场预期随着通胀显示出见顶迹象，各国央行将很快开始放缓大举加息的步伐，但策略师们仍不相信这种反弹会持续下去。上周美国公布的10月通胀数据低于预期后，市场受到提振，促使投资者押注美联储决策者很快将不得不放慢或停止货币政策收紧措施，这些措施旨在压低通胀。标准普尔500指数创下了自2020年初疫情反弹以来的最大单日涨幅。不过，美联储理事沃勒周一表示，市场高估了一个数据点的重要性，美联储在加息方面还有“一段路要走”。最近几天，一些分析人士也表达了同样的看法。贝莱德美国投资研究所(Investment Institute)在一份报告中说，推动工资增长和核心通胀的劳动力约束可能比市场所反映的更为持久。尽管股市上升表明，市场重申了美联储软着陆的希望，但贝莱德(BlackRock)的顶级策略师并不认同这一观点，他们仍然减持发达市场股票。贝莱德投资研究所主管Jean Boivin及其团队表示:\"美国股市今年多次跳涨，因市场预期美联储可能接近结束上世纪80年代以来最快的加息周期，让经济实现软着陆，避免陷入衰退。\"“我们认为，随着美联储推进政策过度紧缩，这些希望将再次破灭。标准普尔500指数从10月的低点上涨了10%以上，我们认为，股价在反映经济衰退的程度上更差了，而盈利预期也被下调了。”贝莱德预期的意外下调的核心是盈利预期下调。尽管市场普遍预期收益增长将从2022年初的10%降至2023年的略高于4%，但这家全球最大的投资管理公司预计收益将为零增长、Boivin的团队称，\"我们需要看到股市进一步下跌，或更多通胀缓和的好消息，才能对股市产生正面影响。\"Lansdowne Partners合伙人兼投资组合经理Dan Avigad周三对上述观点表示赞同，他在Sohn London投资会议上表示，随着各国央行寻求抑制需求以抑制通胀，企业利润率也将不得不从目前\"非常高的水准\"压缩。Avigad说:“如果我们回顾过去几十年的趋势，我们的收益仍比长期趋势高出20%左右，所以在我看来，更广泛的股票市场的收益轨迹很可能被高估了15-20%。”根据凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的数据，上周四华尔街的上涨是标普500指数自上世纪60年代中期以来第15大单日涨幅。资深市场经济学家Thomas Mathews在一份报告中称，尽管从表面上看，如果通胀回落确实导致货币紧缩政策结束，股市仍有进一步上涨的可能，但由于经济增长和获利前景面临风险，该公司仍对股市持悲观看法。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)预计美国经济将出现温和衰退，几个主要发达市场将出现收缩。Mathews认为，从普遍的获利预期来看，这一宏观经济结果并未在股市中得到充分考虑。\"美国股市估值已大幅下跌，但从近期美国经济衰退的经验来看，标普500指数的市盈率在衰退开始前后进一步下跌，尽管由于之前的加息，该指数已处于低位，且实际安全资产收益率仍有所下降，\" Mathews称。“所有这一切都向我们表明，最近一轮反弹的可持续性，不仅取决于通胀，还至少同样取决于即将出炉的经济增长和企业利润数据。”但就目前而言，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)认为，企业业绩令市场失望，并进一步拖累股市。该公司预测，到2023年年中，标准普尔500指数将跌至3,200点的低点，较当前水平低20%左右，全球其他股市也将出现类似幅度的跌幅。然而，并不是所有人都认同这一观点。Baird股票部副主席Patrick 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