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2022-12-10

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Beyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?

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We believe that slowing the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance the risks.\"</p><p>Markets rebounded after Powell's remarks last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from his comments last summer and fall. However, he also emphasized that he has not changed his view that the Federal Reserve may have made a bigger mistake by failing to control inflation.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve rate hike by 0.5 percentage points in December, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, the highest level since December 2007. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), rose 6% year-over-year in October. The Federal Reserve's goal is for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of December 13, when officials will see another set of inflation data, and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI).</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures remain significant, they may consider consecutive rate hike at their meetings this month and next February, with each rate hike of 0.5 percentage points.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive interest rate outlook in their new quarterly economic forecasts released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue rate hike by at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected interest rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. According to new forecasts, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>“Labor demand is stronger, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then underlying inflation has risen slightly, suggesting that the policy path will be slightly higher compared to the situation in September,” John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last week. This is not a huge change, just a slight increase.</p><p><b>Officials may discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their views depend on their perception of potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may have greater disagreements on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek another 50 basis point rate hike in February, as they believe there is a greater risk that inflation will not fall sufficiently next year. If there are no signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may worry that inflation may rise again.</p><p>Other officials believe that inflation is mainly due to supply bottlenecks and an overheated real estate market. They believe that as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease, inflation will decline rapidly and approach 2% next year. These officials favor a 25 basis point rate hike in February next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-10 09:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but persistently high wage pressures could prompt the Fed to continue rate hike, raising rates to levels higher than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike pace this year has reached its highest level since the early 1980s, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A shift to a smaller rate hike of 0.5 percentage points would mark a new phase in policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect inflationary pressures to ease substantially next year, but rapid wage growth in labor-intensive service sectors or rising inflation could lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate above 5% next year, while investors currently expect a peak interest rate of 5%.</p><p>Powell stated last week that because rate hike will take some time to curb economic growth, the impact on inflation will take even longer to materialize. \"If we wait for empirical evidence of a decline in inflation, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance the risks.\"</p><p>Markets rebounded after Powell's remarks last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from his comments last summer and fall. However, he also emphasized that he has not changed his view that the Federal Reserve may have made a bigger mistake by failing to control inflation.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve rate hike by 0.5 percentage points in December, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, the highest level since December 2007. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), rose 6% year-over-year in October. The Federal Reserve's goal is for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of December 13, when officials will see another set of inflation data, and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI).</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures remain significant, they may consider consecutive rate hike at their meetings this month and next February, with each rate hike of 0.5 percentage points.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive interest rate outlook in their new quarterly economic forecasts released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue rate hike by at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected interest rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. According to new forecasts, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>“Labor demand is stronger, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then underlying inflation has risen slightly, suggesting that the policy path will be slightly higher compared to the situation in September,” John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last week. This is not a huge change, just a slight increase.</p><p><b>Officials may discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their views depend on their perception of potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may have greater disagreements on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek another 50 basis point rate hike in February, as they believe there is a greater risk that inflation will not fall sufficiently next year. If there are no signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may worry that inflation may rise again.</p><p>Other officials believe that inflation is mainly due to supply bottlenecks and an overheated real estate market. They believe that as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease, inflation will decline rapidly and approach 2% next year. These officials favor a 25 basis point rate hike in February next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181442501","content_text":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平，包括过去四次会议上连续四次加息0.75个百分点，以应对通货膨胀。转为较小的0.5个百分点的加息将标志着政策紧缩进入一个新阶段。决策者预计明年通胀压力将有实质性缓解，但劳动密集型的服务业薪资增长迅速或通胀率上升，可能导致更多决策者支持明年将基准利率提高到5%以上，而目前投资者预期的利率峰值为5%。鲍威尔上周表示，由于加息需要一段时间才能起到抑制经济增速的作用，对通胀的影响甚至需要更长时间才能显现，“如果要等待通胀回落的实证，就很难避免过度收紧。我们认为，在这个时候放慢紧缩步伐是平衡风险的一个好办法。”鲍威尔上周发表上述言论后，市场出现反弹，一些投资者将其解读为与他去年夏秋发表的言论相比发生了转变。不过他也强调，他没有改变自己的观点，即美联储可能犯的更大的错误是未能控制住通胀。若美联储12月加息0.5个百分点，将使基准的联邦基金目标利率升至4.25%-4.5%，从而将创下2007年12月以来的最高水平。美联储偏好的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)在10月份同比上升6%。美联储的目标是，随着时间的推移，通胀率回落至2%。美联储将在12月13日上午开始为期两天的货币政策会议，当天官员们将看到另一份通胀数据，美国劳工部将公布11月份消费者价格指数(CPI)。如果有迹象显示通胀压力依然较大，他们可能会考虑在本月和明年2月的会议上连续加息，每次加息0.5个百分点。官员们可能会在即将举行的会议后发布的新季度经济预测中发出略微更积极的利率前景信号。这可能表明，政策制定者预计将继续加息至少25个基点，直到他们看到劳动力市场已经降温的明确迹象。大多数官员在9月份预计明年利率将升至4.5%-5%。而根据新的预测，明年利率可能升至4.75%-5.25%。“劳动力需求更加旺盛，美国内需比我之前预期的更强劲，然后潜在通胀率略有上升，这表明与9月份时的形势相比，政策路径会略高一些，”纽约联储银行行长威廉斯(John Williams)在过去一周表示。这并非一个巨大的变化，只是略高了一点。官员们可能会在下周讨论2月份加息多少，他们的看法取决于他们对潜在价格压力的看法。如果通胀放缓，但劳动力市场仍然紧张，他们可能会在如何进行的问题上存在更大分歧。一些官员可能会寻求在2月份再次加息50个基点，因为他们认为明年通胀下降不够的风险更大。如果没有招聘放缓的迹象，他们可能会担心通胀可能会再次上升。另一些官员认为，通胀主要归因于供应瓶颈和房地产市场过热。他们认为，随着经济活动降温，供应链问题缓解，通胀将迅速下行，并在明年接近2%。这些官员倾向于明年2月份加息25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":629540986,"gmtCreate":1670648471846,"gmtModify":1676538412551,"author":{"id":"4133443011402420","authorId":"4133443011402420","name":"3fddd8ac","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4133443011402420","authorIdStr":"4133443011402420"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/629540986","repostId":"1181442501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181442501","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1670636160,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181442501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 09:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Beyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181442501","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but persistently high wage pressures could prompt the Fed to continue rate hike, raising rates to levels higher than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike pace this year has reached its highest level since the early 1980s, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A shift to a smaller rate hike of 0.5 percentage points would mark a new phase in policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect inflationary pressures to ease substantially next year, but rapid wage growth in labor-intensive service sectors or rising inflation could lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate above 5% next year, while investors currently expect a peak interest rate of 5%.</p><p>Powell stated last week that because rate hike will take some time to curb economic growth, the impact on inflation will take even longer to materialize. \"If we wait for empirical evidence of a decline in inflation, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance the risks.\"</p><p>Markets rebounded after Powell's remarks last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from his comments last summer and fall. However, he also emphasized that he has not changed his view that the Federal Reserve may have made a bigger mistake by failing to control inflation.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve rate hike by 0.5 percentage points in December, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, the highest level since December 2007. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), rose 6% year-over-year in October. The Federal Reserve's goal is for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of December 13, when officials will see another set of inflation data, and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI).</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures remain significant, they may consider consecutive rate hike at their meetings this month and next February, with each rate hike of 0.5 percentage points.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive interest rate outlook in their new quarterly economic forecasts released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue rate hike by at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected interest rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. According to new forecasts, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>“Labor demand is stronger, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then underlying inflation has risen slightly, suggesting that the policy path will be slightly higher compared to the situation in September,” John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last week. This is not a huge change, just a slight increase.</p><p><b>Officials may discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their views depend on their perception of potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may have greater disagreements on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek another 50 basis point rate hike in February, as they believe there is a greater risk that inflation will not fall sufficiently next year. If there are no signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may worry that inflation may rise again.</p><p>Other officials believe that inflation is mainly due to supply bottlenecks and an overheated real estate market. They believe that as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease, inflation will decline rapidly and approach 2% next year. These officials favor a 25 basis point rate hike in February next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-10 09:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but persistently high wage pressures could prompt the Fed to continue rate hike, raising rates to levels higher than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike pace this year has reached its highest level since the early 1980s, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A shift to a smaller rate hike of 0.5 percentage points would mark a new phase in policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect inflationary pressures to ease substantially next year, but rapid wage growth in labor-intensive service sectors or rising inflation could lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate above 5% next year, while investors currently expect a peak interest rate of 5%.</p><p>Powell stated last week that because rate hike will take some time to curb economic growth, the impact on inflation will take even longer to materialize. \"If we wait for empirical evidence of a decline in inflation, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance the risks.\"</p><p>Markets rebounded after Powell's remarks last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from his comments last summer and fall. However, he also emphasized that he has not changed his view that the Federal Reserve may have made a bigger mistake by failing to control inflation.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve rate hike by 0.5 percentage points in December, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, the highest level since December 2007. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), rose 6% year-over-year in October. The Federal Reserve's goal is for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of December 13, when officials will see another set of inflation data, and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI).</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures remain significant, they may consider consecutive rate hike at their meetings this month and next February, with each rate hike of 0.5 percentage points.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive interest rate outlook in their new quarterly economic forecasts released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue rate hike by at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected interest rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. According to new forecasts, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>“Labor demand is stronger, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then underlying inflation has risen slightly, suggesting that the policy path will be slightly higher compared to the situation in September,” John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last week. This is not a huge change, just a slight increase.</p><p><b>Officials may discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their views depend on their perception of potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may have greater disagreements on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek another 50 basis point rate hike in February, as they believe there is a greater risk that inflation will not fall sufficiently next year. If there are no signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may worry that inflation may rise again.</p><p>Other officials believe that inflation is mainly due to supply bottlenecks and an overheated real estate market. They believe that as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease, inflation will decline rapidly and approach 2% next year. These officials favor a 25 basis point rate hike in February next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181442501","content_text":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平，包括过去四次会议上连续四次加息0.75个百分点，以应对通货膨胀。转为较小的0.5个百分点的加息将标志着政策紧缩进入一个新阶段。决策者预计明年通胀压力将有实质性缓解，但劳动密集型的服务业薪资增长迅速或通胀率上升，可能导致更多决策者支持明年将基准利率提高到5%以上，而目前投资者预期的利率峰值为5%。鲍威尔上周表示，由于加息需要一段时间才能起到抑制经济增速的作用，对通胀的影响甚至需要更长时间才能显现，“如果要等待通胀回落的实证，就很难避免过度收紧。我们认为，在这个时候放慢紧缩步伐是平衡风险的一个好办法。”鲍威尔上周发表上述言论后，市场出现反弹，一些投资者将其解读为与他去年夏秋发表的言论相比发生了转变。不过他也强调，他没有改变自己的观点，即美联储可能犯的更大的错误是未能控制住通胀。若美联储12月加息0.5个百分点，将使基准的联邦基金目标利率升至4.25%-4.5%，从而将创下2007年12月以来的最高水平。美联储偏好的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)在10月份同比上升6%。美联储的目标是，随着时间的推移，通胀率回落至2%。美联储将在12月13日上午开始为期两天的货币政策会议，当天官员们将看到另一份通胀数据，美国劳工部将公布11月份消费者价格指数(CPI)。如果有迹象显示通胀压力依然较大，他们可能会考虑在本月和明年2月的会议上连续加息，每次加息0.5个百分点。官员们可能会在即将举行的会议后发布的新季度经济预测中发出略微更积极的利率前景信号。这可能表明，政策制定者预计将继续加息至少25个基点，直到他们看到劳动力市场已经降温的明确迹象。大多数官员在9月份预计明年利率将升至4.5%-5%。而根据新的预测，明年利率可能升至4.75%-5.25%。“劳动力需求更加旺盛，美国内需比我之前预期的更强劲，然后潜在通胀率略有上升，这表明与9月份时的形势相比，政策路径会略高一些，”纽约联储银行行长威廉斯(John Williams)在过去一周表示。这并非一个巨大的变化，只是略高了一点。官员们可能会在下周讨论2月份加息多少，他们的看法取决于他们对潜在价格压力的看法。如果通胀放缓，但劳动力市场仍然紧张，他们可能会在如何进行的问题上存在更大分歧。一些官员可能会寻求在2月份再次加息50个基点，因为他们认为明年通胀下降不够的风险更大。如果没有招聘放缓的迹象，他们可能会担心通胀可能会再次上升。另一些官员认为，通胀主要归因于供应瓶颈和房地产市场过热。他们认为，随着经济活动降温，供应链问题缓解，通胀将迅速下行，并在明年接近2%。这些官员倾向于明年2月份加息25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}