FOMC Day: What We Expect and How the Market May React Today’s Federal Reserve meeting is one of the most important events of the year, not because of the decision itself, but because of the tone that will follow it. Markets have already priced in a near-certain 25 bps rate cut, but what comes next is far more interesting. Here’s a quick breakdown of what to expect — and why the market may behave in strange but predictable ways. ⸻ 1. Rate Cut: Almost Guaranteed Financial markets, prediction markets, and analysts are all aligned: The Fed will cut rates by 0.25% today. The economy has softened at the margins — job openings are down, hiring is slower, and the latest usable inflation data shows price pressures cooling. With a 43-day government shutdown delaying crucial data, the Fed is flying p