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08-29

I think its too negative a valuation.... nvidia is still ahead of the rest and it should not tumble significantly. The profit margins and incoming. Business growth is still significant enough and AI is just starting in my opiinion. We are going to see a slow rise if stock price for nvidia again.

Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Review: Huang Fumbles, Stock Tumbles

06-18

High profit anytime!

06-11

New level! So far tiger is a good platform to trade with lot of options and capabilities which is good for flexibility but sometimes too many options and also needs some imProvements on making things simpler in some cases! So far so good... enjoying the ride!

05-24

Well most of the times I am a long term investor who is looking for long term gains....😎 and then i am also a trader at times trying to buy dips and sell the highs...😂 and then sometimes a dividend investor who puts some money to get steady cash flow as well 😃... so what am i? 🤔... probably like all of you... just an avg guy trying to find financial freedom through the markets....and a strong will to learn and succeed! 👍🏻

04-12

$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple is just a great company with a greater balance sheet! Not too worried tht its been seen to be slow in the AI developments as it will surely catchup and be on the way again to the top...also needs another new product though and hope it comes out soon!

03-08

Too much diversification is also not good …. Find a few good ones and bet on them but have an exit strategy for every bet!

02-22

800

02-22

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

02-21

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Bullish Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!

02-21

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!

02-12

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

2023-04-15

Why only 2 redemptions?

2023-04-13

how do we get the share???

2023-04-12

Easter hunt is still on

2023-04-10

Great promo... the idea is good to share more antbthe app!

2023-04-07

Nice hunt... srill to get the disney share though!

2023-04-06

Easter egg hunt is fun!

2023-04-05

Good easter egg surprise program:.. disney share free!

2023-04-05

Great theme w easter eggs on the offer and free shares.... quite easy to get!

@TigerEvents:【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher

2023-02-27

Yup... agree that selloff of google over chat gpt is temporary!

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think its too negative a valuation.... nvidia is still ahead of the rest and it should not tumble &nbsp;significantly. The profit margins and incoming. Business growth is still significant enough and AI is just starting in my opiinion. We are going to see a slow rise if stock price for nvidia again.","listText":"I think its too negative a valuation.... nvidia is still ahead of the rest and it should not tumble &nbsp;significantly. The profit margins and incoming. Business growth is still significant enough and AI is just starting in my opiinion. We are going to see a slow rise if stock price for nvidia again.","text":"I think its too negative a valuation.... nvidia is still ahead of the rest and it should not tumble significantly. The profit margins and incoming. Business growth is still significant enough and AI is just starting in my opiinion. We are going to see a slow rise if stock price for nvidia again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343495855169568","repostId":"2463410724","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2463410724","pubTimestamp":1724888623,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463410724?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-29 07:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Review: Huang Fumbles, Stock Tumbles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463410724","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia Investor Relations In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's Data Center revenue increased to $26.27B  driven by strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPU computing platform, with sequential growth coming from consumer internet and enterprise companies. While Nvidia's Data Center revenues weren't going to grow at triple-digit rates forever, the sequential growth slowing down to 16% q/q points to marked deceleration ahead!Nvidia Investor Relations In addition to the obvious strength in the Data Center segment, Nvidia delivered strong results in its Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments. The +16% y/y growth in Gaming was a standout number, given poor performance in this space from its rival Advanced Micro Devices","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Nvidia Corporation's Q2 FY2025 report showed a double-beat with $30.04B in revenue and $0.68 EPS, but the narrower beat failed to prevent a post-earnings stock dip amid worrisome gross margin contraction.</li><li>Despite strong growth in Data Center and other segments, Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand and margins remain questionable due to industry cyclicality and competition.</li><li>Nvidia's valuation remains high, and the stock is overvalued at $118 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~7%, below my investment hurdle rate.</li><li>I maintain a “Neutral/Hold” rating on Nvidia due to unfavorable risk/reward and a lack of margin of safety.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>hapabapa</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Brief Review Of Nvidia's Q2 FY2025 Report</h2> <p>Ahead of its Q2 FY2025 earnings print, <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) was projected to achieve quarterly revenues and Normalized EPS of $28.71B and $0.64, respectively.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/26/51572009-17246828759428933.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Estimates</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>With Nvidia posting $30.04B<span> in revenues and $0.68 in normalized EPS for Q2 FY2025, the semiconductor giant has delivered yet another double-beat on consensus street estimates; however, the stock is </span>tumbling lower<span> in the after-hours session, down -5% at the time of writing:</span></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248771429510088.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Google Finance</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While Nvidia is still delivering AI-powered hypergrowth, the quantum of the top and bottom-line beats narrowed further in Q2 amid a contraction in gross margins. Given the post-ER sell-off, I think it is fair to say that Nvidia failed to meet Mr. Market's lofty pre-ER expectations.</p> <p>In my earnings preview note, I expressed caution on NVDA:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Ahead of its<span> upcoming Q2 FY2025 report, Nvidia Corporation stock is experiencing significant volatility. While a double beat is likely, the sustainability of Nvidia's rapid growth and high margins remains uncertain. Despite Nvidia's strong business performance and leadership in the burgeoning AI chips market, I maintain a \"Neutral/Hold\" rating due to valuation concerns and a troublesome technical setup.</span></em></p> <p>Source: \"Nvidia: You Have Been Pumped And Warned By The Cloud Hyperscaler Honchos.\"</p> </blockquote> <p>And given the adverse market reaction to Nvidia's double-beat [plus solid Q3 guidance of $32.5B ($800M above consensus estimate) and announcement of a new $50B buyback program], my neutral stance seems justified.</p> <p>But let's dig deeper into the numbers!</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248776648762279.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Investor Relations</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's Data Center revenue increased to $26.27B (+154% y/y, +16% q/q) driven by strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPU computing platform, with sequential growth coming from consumer internet and enterprise companies. While Nvidia's Data Center revenues weren't going to grow at triple-digit rates forever, the sequential growth slowing down to 16% q/q points to marked deceleration ahead!</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248785909796627.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Investor Relations</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In addition to the obvious strength in the Data Center segment, Nvidia delivered strong results in its Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments. The +16% y/y growth in Gaming was a standout number, given poor performance in this space from its rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).</p> <p>Now, at this point, Nvidia is undoubtedly a Data Center-centric business [~87% of total revenues], and so, a delayed production ramp for Blackwell due to changes in the Blackwell GPU mask threatened to introduce significant uncertainty into the semiconductor giant's otherwise rosy business outlook.</p> <p>However, according to Nvidia's CEO, Blackwell samples were shipped out in Q2, and the next-gen GPUs are on track for ramped-up production in the back half of FY2025. Here's what CEO Jensen Huang had to say in the Q2 FY25 release:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible. NVIDIA achieved record revenues as global data centers are in full throttle to modernize the entire computing stack with accelerated computing and generative AI.</em></p> <p><em>Blackwell samples are shipping to our partners and customers. Spectrum-X Ethernet for AI and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are two new product categories achieving significant scale, demonstrating that NVIDIA is a full-stack and data center-scale platform. Across the entire stack and ecosystem, we are helping frontier model makers to consumer internet services, and now enterprises. Generative AI will revolutionize every industry.</em></p> <p>- <em>Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>Given the cyclicality associated with semiconductors and the fact that some of its largest customers - cloud hyperscalers - are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro] in the industry, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. While Nvidia Q2 revenue guidance of $32.5B exceeding street expectations of $31.7B is positive, the <strong>gross margin contraction</strong> seen in Q2 [non-GAAP gross margins: -320 bps q/q] is set to deepen to the low-70s in the back half of FY2025.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248796247900434.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Investor Relations</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>With its vast first-mover advantage in AI, Nvidia's hardware + CUDA software ecosystem is commanding tremendous pricing power. However, as I alluded to in \"Nvidia Q1 FY2025 Review: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance,\" Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. On the earnings call, Nvidia leadership said that the inventory crunch for its Hopper GPUs is easing. Did Huang &amp; Co. just fumble the ball?</p> <p>Is Nvidia's current margin profile sustainable? Based on historical data for the semiconductor industry, I don't think so, but only time will reveal the truth.</p> <p>Now, in Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's quarterly operational cash flow rose to $14.5B (up $6.3B y/y), and quarterly free cash flow jumped to $13.5B (up $6.5B y/y) - however, both of these figures were down sequentially (on a q/q basis) due to higher cash taxes.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-1724880640152312.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Investor Relations</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In recent quarters, I have insisted on Nvidia strengthening its balance sheet in preparation for a cyclical downturn:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>While Nvidia's balance sheet is robust, I would personally like NVDA to raise some capital at current valuation to bolster its cash position and bring it in line with a level that resembles other $1.8T companies. The semiconductor industry is cyclical by nature, and I want Nvidia to have a massive cash hoard that can allow the company to keep growing through an industry downturn.</em></p> <p>Source: \"Nvidia's Q4 Report Is A Blowout: Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\"</p> </blockquote> <p>Yes, Nvidia's cash and short-term investments have increased to $34.8B; however, the company aggressively returning its free cash flows back to shareholders at NVDA current valuation [~20x P/S] continues to perplex me. In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia returned $7.4B to shareholders via stock buybacks and dividends, and the semiconductor giant just announced a fresh addition of $50B to its buyback program.</p> <p>Given the historical cyclicality associated with semis, I still think that raising capital at a $3T+ market capitalization is a far better idea for Nvidia than returning capital to shareholders via buybacks at ~20x P/S [FY2025E].</p> <h2>Nvidia's Fair Value And Expected Returns</h2> <p>In light of Nvidia's Q2 FY2025 report, I am sticking with my pre-earnings valuation model assumptions for the semiconductor giant:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248817508753057.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model TQIG.org (TQIG.org)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>On the back of a 6% post-ER dip in NVDA stock, the gap between Nvidia's stock price and our fair value estimate has narrowed; however, at $118 per share, NVDA remains significantly overvalued in my book.</p> <p>Assuming a base case exit multiple of 25x P/FCF, I see Nvidia rising to $165 per share by 2029. This price target translates to a 5-year expected CAGR return of ~7% from current levels.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248819711675887.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model (TQIG.org)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While Nvidia's 5-year expected CAGR has improved from 5.34% to 6.99% in light of its post-ER dip, it continues to fall short of my investment hurdle rate (of 15%) and long-term market - S&amp;P 500 (SP500) - returns (of 8%-10% per year). Hence, Nvidia is still not an attractive investment under our valuation process.</p> <h2>Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q2 Earnings?</h2> <p>In my view, Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious \"picks and shovels\" play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, and the long-term risk/reward doesn't justify the allocation of fresh capital right now. Due to unfavorable risk/reward and sheer lack of a margin of safety, I am going to stick to the sidelines on Nvidia Corporation stock.</p> <p>Earlier in the week, I laid out the following scenarios:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Technically, NVDA stock has regained short-term momentum ahead of earnings after re-claiming the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. However, the bounce in NVDA stock seems to be pausing at the key 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.</em></p> <p><em>If we do see NVDA making a sustained push above $130, I think the ongoing bounce can extend to $140 and then to the $152-171 range.</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/26/51572009-1724687901712416.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Stock Chart 08/26/2024 (TrendSpider)</p></figcaption></figure><p><em>On the flip side, given the ongoing rollover in momentum indicators - Weekly RSI and MACD - selling pressure could re-appear in upcoming sessions. A strong rejection from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could spark a deeper drawdown, which could send NVDA stock spiraling down to the $65-81 range marked on the chart below.</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/26/51572009-1724688590684218.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Stock Chart 08/26/2024 (TrendSpider)</p></figcaption></figure><p>Source: \"Nvidia: You Have Been Pumped And Warned By The Cloud Hyperscaler Honchos.\"</p> </blockquote> <p>Given the 5-6% drop in Nvidia Corporation stock post-earnings, I believe we are seeing a strong rejection from the key 78.6% Fibonacci level. If this sell-off sticks and picks up steam in the upcoming sessions, a deeper drawdown to the $65-81 range is a plausible outcome for the next 6-12 months.</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> Considering Nvidia's long-term risk/reward and technicals, I continue to rate Nvidia Corporation stock \"Neutral/Hold\" at $118 per share.</p> <div></div> <p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Review: Huang Fumbles, Stock Tumbles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Q2 FY2025 Review: Huang Fumbles, Stock Tumbles\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-29 07:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717746-nvidia-q2-fy2025-review-huang-fumbles-stock-tumbles><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation's Q2 FY2025 report showed a double-beat with $30.04B in revenue and $0.68 EPS, but the narrower beat failed to prevent a post-earnings stock dip amid worrisome gross margin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717746-nvidia-q2-fy2025-review-huang-fumbles-stock-tumbles\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4543":"AI","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717746-nvidia-q2-fy2025-review-huang-fumbles-stock-tumbles","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2463410724","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation's Q2 FY2025 report showed a double-beat with $30.04B in revenue and $0.68 EPS, but the narrower beat failed to prevent a post-earnings stock dip amid worrisome gross margin contraction.Despite strong growth in Data Center and other segments, Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand and margins remain questionable due to industry cyclicality and competition.Nvidia's valuation remains high, and the stock is overvalued at $118 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~7%, below my investment hurdle rate.I maintain a “Neutral/Hold” rating on Nvidia due to unfavorable risk/reward and a lack of margin of safety.hapabapa Brief Review Of Nvidia's Q2 FY2025 Report Ahead of its Q2 FY2025 earnings print, Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was projected to achieve quarterly revenues and Normalized EPS of $28.71B and $0.64, respectively. Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Estimates With Nvidia posting $30.04B in revenues and $0.68 in normalized EPS for Q2 FY2025, the semiconductor giant has delivered yet another double-beat on consensus street estimates; however, the stock is tumbling lower in the after-hours session, down -5% at the time of writing: Google Finance While Nvidia is still delivering AI-powered hypergrowth, the quantum of the top and bottom-line beats narrowed further in Q2 amid a contraction in gross margins. Given the post-ER sell-off, I think it is fair to say that Nvidia failed to meet Mr. Market's lofty pre-ER expectations. In my earnings preview note, I expressed caution on NVDA:  Ahead of its upcoming Q2 FY2025 report, Nvidia Corporation stock is experiencing significant volatility. While a double beat is likely, the sustainability of Nvidia's rapid growth and high margins remains uncertain. Despite Nvidia's strong business performance and leadership in the burgeoning AI chips market, I maintain a \"Neutral/Hold\" rating due to valuation concerns and a troublesome technical setup. Source: \"Nvidia: You Have Been Pumped And Warned By The Cloud Hyperscaler Honchos.\"  And given the adverse market reaction to Nvidia's double-beat [plus solid Q3 guidance of $32.5B ($800M above consensus estimate) and announcement of a new $50B buyback program], my neutral stance seems justified. But let's dig deeper into the numbers! Nvidia Investor Relations In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's Data Center revenue increased to $26.27B (+154% y/y, +16% q/q) driven by strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPU computing platform, with sequential growth coming from consumer internet and enterprise companies. While Nvidia's Data Center revenues weren't going to grow at triple-digit rates forever, the sequential growth slowing down to 16% q/q points to marked deceleration ahead! Nvidia Investor Relations In addition to the obvious strength in the Data Center segment, Nvidia delivered strong results in its Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments. The +16% y/y growth in Gaming was a standout number, given poor performance in this space from its rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Now, at this point, Nvidia is undoubtedly a Data Center-centric business [~87% of total revenues], and so, a delayed production ramp for Blackwell due to changes in the Blackwell GPU mask threatened to introduce significant uncertainty into the semiconductor giant's otherwise rosy business outlook. However, according to Nvidia's CEO, Blackwell samples were shipped out in Q2, and the next-gen GPUs are on track for ramped-up production in the back half of FY2025. Here's what CEO Jensen Huang had to say in the Q2 FY25 release:  Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible. NVIDIA achieved record revenues as global data centers are in full throttle to modernize the entire computing stack with accelerated computing and generative AI. Blackwell samples are shipping to our partners and customers. Spectrum-X Ethernet for AI and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are two new product categories achieving significant scale, demonstrating that NVIDIA is a full-stack and data center-scale platform. Across the entire stack and ecosystem, we are helping frontier model makers to consumer internet services, and now enterprises. Generative AI will revolutionize every industry. - Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia.  Given the cyclicality associated with semiconductors and the fact that some of its largest customers - cloud hyperscalers - are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro] in the industry, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. While Nvidia Q2 revenue guidance of $32.5B exceeding street expectations of $31.7B is positive, the gross margin contraction seen in Q2 [non-GAAP gross margins: -320 bps q/q] is set to deepen to the low-70s in the back half of FY2025. Nvidia Investor Relations With its vast first-mover advantage in AI, Nvidia's hardware + CUDA software ecosystem is commanding tremendous pricing power. However, as I alluded to in \"Nvidia Q1 FY2025 Review: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance,\" Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. On the earnings call, Nvidia leadership said that the inventory crunch for its Hopper GPUs is easing. Did Huang & Co. just fumble the ball? Is Nvidia's current margin profile sustainable? Based on historical data for the semiconductor industry, I don't think so, but only time will reveal the truth. Now, in Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's quarterly operational cash flow rose to $14.5B (up $6.3B y/y), and quarterly free cash flow jumped to $13.5B (up $6.5B y/y) - however, both of these figures were down sequentially (on a q/q basis) due to higher cash taxes. Nvidia Investor Relations In recent quarters, I have insisted on Nvidia strengthening its balance sheet in preparation for a cyclical downturn:  While Nvidia's balance sheet is robust, I would personally like NVDA to raise some capital at current valuation to bolster its cash position and bring it in line with a level that resembles other $1.8T companies. The semiconductor industry is cyclical by nature, and I want Nvidia to have a massive cash hoard that can allow the company to keep growing through an industry downturn. Source: \"Nvidia's Q4 Report Is A Blowout: Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\"  Yes, Nvidia's cash and short-term investments have increased to $34.8B; however, the company aggressively returning its free cash flows back to shareholders at NVDA current valuation [~20x P/S] continues to perplex me. In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia returned $7.4B to shareholders via stock buybacks and dividends, and the semiconductor giant just announced a fresh addition of $50B to its buyback program. Given the historical cyclicality associated with semis, I still think that raising capital at a $3T+ market capitalization is a far better idea for Nvidia than returning capital to shareholders via buybacks at ~20x P/S [FY2025E]. Nvidia's Fair Value And Expected Returns In light of Nvidia's Q2 FY2025 report, I am sticking with my pre-earnings valuation model assumptions for the semiconductor giant: TQI Valuation Model TQIG.org (TQIG.org) On the back of a 6% post-ER dip in NVDA stock, the gap between Nvidia's stock price and our fair value estimate has narrowed; however, at $118 per share, NVDA remains significantly overvalued in my book. Assuming a base case exit multiple of 25x P/FCF, I see Nvidia rising to $165 per share by 2029. This price target translates to a 5-year expected CAGR return of ~7% from current levels. TQI Valuation Model (TQIG.org) While Nvidia's 5-year expected CAGR has improved from 5.34% to 6.99% in light of its post-ER dip, it continues to fall short of my investment hurdle rate (of 15%) and long-term market - S&P 500 (SP500) - returns (of 8%-10% per year). Hence, Nvidia is still not an attractive investment under our valuation process. Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q2 Earnings? In my view, Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious \"picks and shovels\" play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, and the long-term risk/reward doesn't justify the allocation of fresh capital right now. Due to unfavorable risk/reward and sheer lack of a margin of safety, I am going to stick to the sidelines on Nvidia Corporation stock. Earlier in the week, I laid out the following scenarios:  Technically, NVDA stock has regained short-term momentum ahead of earnings after re-claiming the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. However, the bounce in NVDA stock seems to be pausing at the key 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If we do see NVDA making a sustained push above $130, I think the ongoing bounce can extend to $140 and then to the $152-171 range. Nvidia Stock Chart 08/26/2024 (TrendSpider)On the flip side, given the ongoing rollover in momentum indicators - Weekly RSI and MACD - selling pressure could re-appear in upcoming sessions. A strong rejection from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could spark a deeper drawdown, which could send NVDA stock spiraling down to the $65-81 range marked on the chart below. Nvidia Stock Chart 08/26/2024 (TrendSpider)Source: \"Nvidia: You Have Been Pumped And Warned By The Cloud Hyperscaler Honchos.\"  Given the 5-6% drop in Nvidia Corporation stock post-earnings, I believe we are seeing a strong rejection from the key 78.6% Fibonacci level. If this sell-off sticks and picks up steam in the upcoming sessions, a deeper drawdown to the $65-81 range is a plausible outcome for the next 6-12 months. Key Takeaway: Considering Nvidia's long-term risk/reward and technicals, I continue to rate Nvidia Corporation stock \"Neutral/Hold\" at $118 per share.  Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318195157971024,"gmtCreate":1718722948379,"gmtModify":1718722951528,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"High profit anytime!","listText":"High profit anytime!","text":"High profit anytime!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/318195157971024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315691869589800,"gmtCreate":1718104550232,"gmtModify":1718191445759,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"New level! So far tiger is a good platform to trade with lot of options and capabilities which is good for flexibility but sometimes too many options and also needs some imProvements on making things simpler in some cases! So far so good... enjoying the ride!","listText":"New level! So far tiger is a good platform to trade with lot of options and capabilities which is good for flexibility but sometimes too many options and also needs some imProvements on making things simpler in some cases! So far so good... enjoying the ride!","text":"New level! So far tiger is a good platform to trade with lot of options and capabilities which is good for flexibility but sometimes too many options and also needs some imProvements on making things simpler in some cases! So far so good... enjoying the ride!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/111ecdcdf6b90d0a406313722c344b76","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315691869589800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667618000160","authorId":"3527667618000160","name":"CaptainTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d0e54b757b231beb8b11fd49de85317","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667618000160","idStr":"3527667618000160"},"content":"Thanks! Welcome to Tiger! Wishing you all the best on your trading journey, and feel free to tag me anytime if you encounter any problems in the community!","text":"Thanks! Welcome to Tiger! Wishing you all the best on your trading journey, and feel free to tag me anytime if you encounter any problems in the community!","html":"Thanks! Welcome to Tiger! Wishing you all the best on your trading journey, and feel free to tag me anytime if you encounter any problems in the community!"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":309203785408648,"gmtCreate":1716516918998,"gmtModify":1716516923338,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well most of the times I am a long term investor who is looking for long term gains....😎 and then i am also a trader at times trying to buy dips and sell the highs...😂 and then sometimes a dividend investor who puts some money to get steady cash flow as well 😃... so what am i? 🤔... probably like all of you... just an avg guy&nbsp;trying to find financial freedom through the markets....and a strong will to learn and succeed! 👍🏻","listText":"Well most of the times I am a long term investor who is looking for long term gains....😎 and then i am also a trader at times trying to buy dips and sell the highs...😂 and then sometimes a dividend investor who puts some money to get steady cash flow as well 😃... so what am i? 🤔... probably like all of you... just an avg guy&nbsp;trying to find financial freedom through the markets....and a strong will to learn and succeed! 👍🏻","text":"Well most of the times I am a long term investor who is looking for long term gains....😎 and then i am also a trader at times trying to buy dips and sell the highs...😂 and then sometimes a dividend investor who puts some money to get steady cash flow as well 😃... so what am i? 🤔... probably like all of you... just an avg guy trying to find financial freedom through the markets....and a strong will to learn and succeed! 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/309203785408648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":294527646810312,"gmtCreate":1712924508458,"gmtModify":1712924512430,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; Apple is just a great company&nbsp;with a greater balance sheet! Not too worried tht its been seen to be slow in the AI developments as it will surely&nbsp;catchup and be on the way again to the top...also needs another new product though and hope it comes out soon!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; Apple is just a great company&nbsp;with a greater balance sheet! Not too worried tht its been seen to be slow in the AI developments as it will surely&nbsp;catchup and be on the way again to the top...also needs another new product though and hope it comes out soon!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple is just a great company with a greater balance sheet! Not too worried tht its been seen to be slow in the AI developments as it will surely catchup and be on the way again to the top...also needs another new product though and hope it comes out soon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/294527646810312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":282105850052672,"gmtCreate":1709899440548,"gmtModify":1709899444284,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too much diversification is also not good …. Find a few good ones and bet on them but have an exit strategy for every bet!","listText":"Too much diversification is also not good …. Find a few good ones and bet on them but have an exit strategy for every bet!","text":"Too much diversification is also not good …. Find a few good ones and bet on them but have an exit strategy for every bet!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/282105850052672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276806035935512,"gmtCreate":1708605723585,"gmtModify":1708605727201,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"800","listText":"800","text":"800","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276806035935512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276504407638040,"gmtCreate":1708536285485,"gmtModify":1708536289702,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276504407638040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276257066115192,"gmtCreate":1708475866221,"gmtModify":1708475872360,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Bullish Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","listText":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Bullish Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Bullish Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276257066115192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276256695300288,"gmtCreate":1708475791269,"gmtModify":1708475794845,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers.&nbsp; Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers.&nbsp; Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276256695300288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273080267317496,"gmtCreate":1707707781251,"gmtModify":1707707783540,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273080267317496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945276292,"gmtCreate":1681494844716,"gmtModify":1681494848526,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why only 2 redemptions?","listText":"Why only 2 redemptions?","text":"Why only 2 redemptions?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945276292","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945191743,"gmtCreate":1681397319083,"gmtModify":1681397323078,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"how do we get the share???","listText":"how do we get the share???","text":"how do we get the share???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945191743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942403224,"gmtCreate":1681264328068,"gmtModify":1681264332182,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easter hunt is still&nbsp;on","listText":"Easter hunt is still&nbsp;on","text":"Easter hunt is still on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942403224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942329487,"gmtCreate":1681138817749,"gmtModify":1681138821562,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great promo... the idea is good to share more antbthe app!","listText":"Great promo... the idea is good to share more antbthe app!","text":"Great promo... the idea is good to share more antbthe app!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942329487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946034067,"gmtCreate":1680804335959,"gmtModify":1680804339684,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice hunt... srill to get the disney share though!","listText":"Nice hunt... srill to get the disney share though!","text":"Nice hunt... srill to get the disney share though!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946034067","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948266697,"gmtCreate":1680713446919,"gmtModify":1680713450563,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easter egg hunt is fun!","listText":"Easter egg hunt is fun!","text":"Easter egg hunt is fun!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948266697","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948614855,"gmtCreate":1680696964577,"gmtModify":1680696967983,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good easter egg surprise program:.. disney share free!","listText":"Good easter egg surprise program:.. disney share free!","text":"Good easter egg surprise program:.. disney share free!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948614855","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580497860723466","authorId":"3580497860723466","name":"green horse","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82e6804139fa6a77e164ccdd0344be3b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580497860723466","idStr":"3580497860723466"},"content":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","html":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948167878,"gmtCreate":1680652846294,"gmtModify":1680652849796,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great theme w easter eggs on the offer and free shares.... quite easy to get!","listText":"Great theme w easter eggs on the offer and free shares.... quite easy to get!","text":"Great theme w easter eggs on the offer and free shares.... quite easy to get!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948167878","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957484626,"gmtCreate":1677493644665,"gmtModify":1677493648440,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136364888237692","idStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup... agree that selloff of google over chat gpt is temporary!","listText":"Yup... agree that selloff of google over chat gpt is temporary!","text":"Yup... agree that selloff of google over chat gpt is temporary!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957484626","repostId":"2314342494","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9954236883,"gmtCreate":1676380190743,"gmtModify":1676381316695,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>The reaction to the bard blip is an absolute overreaction! google is numero uno by far in search business...bing doesnt even have 5% market share...this is a sure opportunity to buy alphabet at a cheap price! I am going in😃! and uf u are scared then buy Microsoft too...!! I see only upside...👍🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>The reaction to the bard blip is an absolute overreaction! google is numero uno by far in search business...bing doesnt even have 5% market share...this is a sure opportunity to buy alphabet at a cheap price! I am going in😃! and uf u are scared then buy Microsoft too...!! I see only upside...👍🏻","text":"$Alphabet(GOOG)$ The reaction to the bard blip is an absolute overreaction! google is numero uno by far in search business...bing doesnt even have 5% market share...this is a sure opportunity to buy alphabet at a cheap price! I am going in😃! and uf u are scared then buy Microsoft too...!! I see only upside...👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":39,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954236883","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948614855,"gmtCreate":1680696964577,"gmtModify":1680696967983,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good easter egg surprise program:.. disney share free!","listText":"Good easter egg surprise program:.. disney share free!","text":"Good easter egg surprise program:.. disney share free!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948614855","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580497860723466","authorId":"3580497860723466","name":"green horse","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82e6804139fa6a77e164ccdd0344be3b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580497860723466","authorIdStr":"3580497860723466"},"content":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","html":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954238902,"gmtCreate":1676379698407,"gmtModify":1676381275186,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla stock price relies on one primary thing- E Musk. If he continues to sell stock to waste $ (twitterfiasco!) then it goes down! On the other hand if he continues focus on expanding the key business ie innovation in cars , trucks, batteries then tesla will go up!","listText":"Tesla stock price relies on one primary thing- E Musk. If he continues to sell stock to waste $ (twitterfiasco!) then it goes down! On the other hand if he continues focus on expanding the key business ie innovation in cars , trucks, batteries then tesla will go up!","text":"Tesla stock price relies on one primary thing- E Musk. If he continues to sell stock to waste $ (twitterfiasco!) then it goes down! On the other hand if he continues focus on expanding the key business ie innovation in cars , trucks, batteries then tesla will go up!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954238902","repostId":"1120289401","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120289401","pubTimestamp":1676359725,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120289401?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-14 15:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120289401","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward m","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Today I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.</li><li>This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in Tesla&#39;s price action.</li><li>The company&#39;s market cap now is much higher than its fair value, despite the doubling of my discounted cash flow analysis price output.</li><li>I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy Tesla stock for a lot cheaper.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15402ca3ce706835733f8b286527cedb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>jetcityimage</p><h2>My Coverage History</h2><p>You are now reading my 6th article on<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA). I initiated coverage of TSLA on October 18, 2021, with a buy recommendation. At that time, the company&#39;s outlook seemed rosy and somefundamental tailwinds could support the continuation of the stock rally. Exactly 2 weeks and 3 days after that call, TSLA surged more than 46% and marked its all-time high, which was never reached again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f520233e45c16f09424f3b27c2170986\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, author&#39;s notes</p><p>In mid-June 2022, I proposeda pair trade idea- a long position in Tesla and a short position in <b>Lucid Group, Inc.</b>(LCID) for the same dollar amount. I reasoned that the most robust company would continue to outperform the fast-growing niche of the auto market. In contrast, the most overvalued company in the group would continue to experience strong multiple contraction andfall much deeper. Since then, the spread between the two stocks has been comfortable enough to make money even after factoring in the commission on the short position and the sharp drop in TSLA in December 2022:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351f491c1849c318143c36ee85f28264\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p>On October 21, I was Neutral, saying Tesla stock was overvalued and warning about the risks in the company&#39;s accounting - this call coincided with the start of &#34;the great meltdown.&#34;</p><p>At the end of December, I caught the news that Elon Musk had stopped selling his stock and would not sell for 1-2 more years - at least that&#39;s what he announced publicly. Few people wrote about it at the time, but as it turned out later, my guess about reducing supply in the market had a positive effect on the price action.</p><p>Inthe last article- &#34;<i>Tesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100</i>&#34; - I wrote the following:</p><blockquote>No one knows exactly when the downward slide of Tesla stock will end. However, one thing seems clear to me -<b>TSLA&#39;s 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction</b>against a backdrop of plenty of negative news and a lack of positive news for the company.</blockquote><blockquote>[emphasis added by the author]</blockquote><p>Then I expected TSLA to fall even lower - that&#39;s when I suggested taking a position in the portfolio. I was wrong - after my call, the stock has not fallen below $116 and has gained &gt;80% in 2 weeks and 2 days.</p><h2>My Updated Thesis Today</h2><p>Today <b>I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking and a further downward movement shortly.</b>This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in TSLA&#39;s price action. All of this is coupled with a strong gap between the company&#39;s market capitalization and its fair value [I update my discounted cash flow, or DCF, model upward in today&#39;s article, but that does not solve the overvaluation problem]. I am Neutral on the stock again, but this time more bearish in the short term than before.</p><h2>Profit-Taking Is Around The Corner</h2><p>In recent weeks - and indeed since late December, when the market (SP500) refused to go lower after bouncing off its 200-day moving average - we have seen strong advances in sentiment. The extreme fear of mid-October 2022 has turned into extreme greed by early February 2023, and we are still in an environment of heightened greed, according toCNN&#39;s Fear &amp; Greed Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/420ce6e30e8d175acd52aa1614ba7a9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>It may seem to you in recent days that everyone is expecting another correction from current levels -<i>but that is not the case!</i>The consensus view, if you break down the above index into its component parts, is that the market should continue to rise shortly after the upcoming publication of the February CPI figures.</p><p>The McClellan Volume Summation Index - the volume of shares on the NYSE that are rising compared to the number of shares that are going down - peaked on Feb. 2 and is still at a very high level, which means the market still has a lot more buyers than sellers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d9a80d128086a1fbcd9253302b38d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>The previous highs of this indicator - April 4, August 18, and December 3, 2022 - coincided with the local highs of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPY). The 5-day average of the put/call ratio behaved inversely proportional, which now also indicates an extremely bullish view of the general market:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/119d62daa3efc23c3ce1cf80bdcfc4d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>I point out these indicators in the Tesla article for two reasons.</p><p><b>First</b>, TSLA is a high-beta [2.11] stock whose 30-day rolling volatility exceeds the market by almost five times [YCharts data]. Simply put, this means that the usually positive correlation between TSLA and SPX forces the former to follow the movement of the latter at double or even triple speed. Now the correlation between Tesla stock and the broader market is broken - this goes against normality and is an anomaly that usually does not last long.</p><p><b>The second reason</b>is that the market rally we have seen recently appears to have been fueled by Tesla buyers. Just look at the volumes of the biggest 12 names:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64359c3491b3ce1db858a6488801de55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg, shared by jeroen blokland [Twitter: @jsblokland]</p><p>The trading volume of Tesla has seen a drastic change in 2023 compared to 2022. In 2022, a 20-day average trading volume between 60 to 90 million shares per day was considered normal, with volumes exceeding 90 to 100 million being considered remarkable. However, in 2023, days with trading volumes below 150 million are now considered modest.</p><p>In my opinion, this is because in the last few weeks, more people wanted to buy the stock every day - the excitement was enormous when the mood of the crowd changed:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2deed2224374a4d0aac83767ac08b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>socialsentiment.io, author&#39;s notes</p><p>I expect massive profit-taking in TSLA stock now that we are moving from greed to fear again in the market -<b>those who came to chase the rally will most likely start closing their positions en masse, triggering an avalanche effect.</b></p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Technicals Are Bearish</h2><p>I am not a professional technician orCMT holder- just sharing my view on technical things that I find interesting for both bulls and bears.</p><p>The influx of new buyers in recent weeks has pushed the RSI indicator higher - this indicator reached the 85 mark on the 4-hour chart in late January. Since then, however, the strength gradually began to cool down, falling to 63 by February 11. Actually, everything would be fine, but during that time [2 weeks] the stock rose by almost 20%, while the RSI fell - an RSI divergence took place, continuing to this day:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6182ea18a6a3631f1f008ebf066a291\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA [4-hour], author&#39;s notes</p><p>The daily chart confirms the bearish outlook for TSLA. We see that on February 9, TSLA stock failed to break through its local resistance zone - the lows of May, June, and October of 2022 - after which the price cooled down slightly (on February 10, we saw a 5% decline). The resulting candlestick pattern is known as the &#34;Bearish abandoned baby&#34;:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9a2254681f7ed5e22aae46a4a3af0a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA (session), author&#39;s notes</p><p>This reversal pattern was, for example, on April 5 the beginning of a new downward trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0055c71df4962c92750049a5e7375223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</p><p>Or, for example, at the end of November 2021, when the price tried twice to overcome its local resistance but finally gave up and fell by 17% within a few days:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826001c4e91889dad8fb32141a7f059c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</p><p>This is just an indirect sign that Tesla has a difficult road ahead - you cannot just rely on these patterns. However, against the backdrop of the extreme greed I mentioned earlier, <b>the current technical picture is becoming way clearer in the short term</b>. Clearly bearish.</p><h2>Valuation, Again</h2><p>Let me briefly describe the conclusions I have come to in valuing Tesla last time [Jan. 10, 2023].</p><p>I took some investment banks&#39; reports and the consensus and made the DCF assumptions much more conservative - from the working capital estimates to the WACC. I also tried to use an exit multiple [EV/EBITDA] for the Enterprise Value calculation instead of Gordon&#39;s growth rate to minimize the sensitivity of the model and thus the extent to which the forecast deviates from reality. Then TSLA was valued at $98.53 per share.</p><p>As the company&#39;s subsequent Q4 2022reportshowed, the business has performed much better than I expected - so I have now decided to revise my assumptions again.</p><p>Despite falling prices and an apparent cooling of demand in China and globally, Teslabeatthe EPS consensus forecast [by 7.28%] for the 8th consecutive quarter.</p><p>On Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs&#39; U.S. Autos &amp; Industrial Tech team released a report [proprietary source] on how the automotive industry and some manufacturing companies, in particular, are doing in the U.S. market. According to GS estimates, Tesla has increased its share of the U.S. light vehicle market from 3.9% to 5% over the past year, while finished vehicle inventory in that market remains below historical levels - a clear bullish sign for TSLA investors and an excellent reason to note how the cuts in selling prices are making a positive impact on sales.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd96b3221aaf3e3cdf890fc23bd56ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs&#39; U.S. Autos &amp; Industrial Tech team</p><p>Tyler Durden from ZeroHedgegave interesting figuresa few days after the publication of that GS report. Based onVisual Capitalist&#39;s data, Tyler notes that Tesla is the absolute leader among its competitors in terms of net profit [and so gross profit and EBIT] per car sold.</p><p>It seems like Tesla&#39;s hard work is paying off. The company, known for having trouble keeping up with demand in the past, has seen a major decrease in its order backlog. In just a matter of months, thebacklog has gonefrom a whopping 476,000 units in July 2022 to a much smaller 74,000 units by December 2022. This decrease can be credited to Tesla&#39;s incredible production growth, which saw a 41% increase from 2021 to 2022.</p><p>I cannot update my model by just tweaking the exit multiple or the WACC part - I have to take into account the positive part of the company&#39;s resilience. I decided to stick to consensus revenue growth data; I expect the EBITDA margin to be 8.5% in FY2023 and gradually increase to 15% by E2026. According to my calculations, the EBIT margin will be affected by the upcoming slowdown in the economy, but it will then grow quite actively [1% in FY2023 -&gt; 10% in FY2026].</p><p>The ratios for working capital - including the ratio of receivables to sales, inventories to sales, and payables to sales - appear to be fairly steady and can be predicted for several years into the future without significant changes, based on the average figures. The ratio of CAPEX to sales is a crucial factor, as it greatly impacts the generation of FCF. In the past, this ratio showed a lot of variabilities, but as Tesla has grown, the ratio has steadily decreased. If there is a recession in late 2023, I anticipate that the ratio of CAPEX to sales will drop even further, possibly to as low as 7%. However, I expect it to rebound in 2024 to 8% and gradually reach 9% by E2026 as production continues to increase. Given all that, I am not making any alterations to my previous CAPEX and NWC predictions.</p><p>Just like last time, I calculate my WACC based on the CAPM model. But now my inputs shifted a little bit:</p><ul><li>beta = 2.03;</li><li>cost of debt = 8%;</li><li>tax rate = 12.99%;</li><li>risk-free rate = 3.5%;</li><li>cost of equity = 4.5%.</li></ul><p>So my WACC is only 0.3% higher than JPM&#39;s - 12.55%. In my opinion, this is a very reasonable discount rate for the risk investors take in buying Tesla shares.</p><p>However, I have decided to increase the exit EV/EBITDA multiple from 12x to 15x so that my valuation model takes into account the hopes of all investors for abnormal growth in the post-forecast period [which will start in only 4 forecast years].</p><p>Here&#39;s the output table I&#39;ve got:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258f1e7ef0f2f41491fd1c7d42880994\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/> </p><p>As you can see, <b>my &#34;fair&#34; price target doubled from $98.53 to $196.89 per share.</b>However, the overvaluation has increased by a factor of ~2.5, as TSLA has already made strong gains in recent weeks.</p><p>It is nice to see that the results of my valuation - despite the rather simple approach of modeling - are around the 60-70% percentile, accordingto Aswath Damodaran&#39;s model. This means that I may be not very far from reality.</p><p>Also, the fact that Tesla&#39;s rally was so fast is not just my opinion. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, whose assumptions I discussed in great detail in one of my earlier Tesla articles, have noted that the recent rally severely limits the upside potential of TSLA stock in the near term [proprietary source]. The bulls will need a lot more tailwinds and positive news to keep the stock on the upswing:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d72b9d46f30b9fefc071f20f6c060a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Morgan Stanley [02/09/2023] + author&#39;s notes</p><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>The market&#39;s feeling pretty greedy right now, according to CNN&#39;s Fear &amp; Greed Index - and it looks like Tesla buyers have been driving the recent stock rally. But when the market even hints at slowing down, these buyers are likely to bail and take their profits. The normal relationship between Tesla and the overall market has gone haywire, which probably won&#39;t stick around for long. When the bears get the chance, it looks like Tesla stock will be the first to take a nosedive. Technical signals and a huge divergence from the stock&#39;s &#34;fair value&#34; are already showing this risk.</p><p>However, I may be wrong on all points of my analysis. If, for example, the February figures CPI turn out better than expected, the markets could receive additional growth impetus - investors now have enough cash to spend. Another risk to my thesis is the subjectivity of technical analysis and valuation. Everyone reads and analyzes charts differently, and different time frames lead to different conclusions. On the monthly chart, TSLA is far from being overbought, and even more - it may seem like a great buy right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/badab3c2ce2e4808f5965df3e350755f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA [monthly], author&#39;s notes</p><p>The Morningstar&#39;s systemdisagrees with my fair value conclusions - it thinks TSLA is ~12% undervalued even after its big rally:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad094da2ea771e3dabce7c88c90c2cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Morningstar Premium</p><p>Even though I&#39;ve doubled my price target, I still think Tesla, Inc. is more likely to see a big sell-off now compared to a few weeks ago or the last time I wrote about the company. I&#39;m keeping my Hold [Neutral] rating but can&#39;t suggest buying TSLA because of the reasons mentioned above. I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy this stock for a lot cheaper.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-14 15:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120289401","content_text":"SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in Tesla's price action.The company's market cap now is much higher than its fair value, despite the doubling of my discounted cash flow analysis price output.I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy Tesla stock for a lot cheaper.jetcityimageMy Coverage HistoryYou are now reading my 6th article onTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA). I initiated coverage of TSLA on October 18, 2021, with a buy recommendation. At that time, the company's outlook seemed rosy and somefundamental tailwinds could support the continuation of the stock rally. Exactly 2 weeks and 3 days after that call, TSLA surged more than 46% and marked its all-time high, which was never reached again.TrendSpider, author's notesIn mid-June 2022, I proposeda pair trade idea- a long position in Tesla and a short position in Lucid Group, Inc.(LCID) for the same dollar amount. I reasoned that the most robust company would continue to outperform the fast-growing niche of the auto market. In contrast, the most overvalued company in the group would continue to experience strong multiple contraction andfall much deeper. Since then, the spread between the two stocks has been comfortable enough to make money even after factoring in the commission on the short position and the sharp drop in TSLA in December 2022:Data byYChartsOn October 21, I was Neutral, saying Tesla stock was overvalued and warning about the risks in the company's accounting - this call coincided with the start of \"the great meltdown.\"At the end of December, I caught the news that Elon Musk had stopped selling his stock and would not sell for 1-2 more years - at least that's what he announced publicly. Few people wrote about it at the time, but as it turned out later, my guess about reducing supply in the market had a positive effect on the price action.Inthe last article- \"Tesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100\" - I wrote the following:No one knows exactly when the downward slide of Tesla stock will end. However, one thing seems clear to me -TSLA's 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreactionagainst a backdrop of plenty of negative news and a lack of positive news for the company.[emphasis added by the author]Then I expected TSLA to fall even lower - that's when I suggested taking a position in the portfolio. I was wrong - after my call, the stock has not fallen below $116 and has gained >80% in 2 weeks and 2 days.My Updated Thesis TodayToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in TSLA's price action. All of this is coupled with a strong gap between the company's market capitalization and its fair value [I update my discounted cash flow, or DCF, model upward in today's article, but that does not solve the overvaluation problem]. I am Neutral on the stock again, but this time more bearish in the short term than before.Profit-Taking Is Around The CornerIn recent weeks - and indeed since late December, when the market (SP500) refused to go lower after bouncing off its 200-day moving average - we have seen strong advances in sentiment. The extreme fear of mid-October 2022 has turned into extreme greed by early February 2023, and we are still in an environment of heightened greed, according toCNN's Fear & Greed Index:CNN BusinessIt may seem to you in recent days that everyone is expecting another correction from current levels -but that is not the case!The consensus view, if you break down the above index into its component parts, is that the market should continue to rise shortly after the upcoming publication of the February CPI figures.The McClellan Volume Summation Index - the volume of shares on the NYSE that are rising compared to the number of shares that are going down - peaked on Feb. 2 and is still at a very high level, which means the market still has a lot more buyers than sellers.CNN BusinessThe previous highs of this indicator - April 4, August 18, and December 3, 2022 - coincided with the local highs of the S&P 500 Index (SPY). The 5-day average of the put/call ratio behaved inversely proportional, which now also indicates an extremely bullish view of the general market:CNN BusinessI point out these indicators in the Tesla article for two reasons.First, TSLA is a high-beta [2.11] stock whose 30-day rolling volatility exceeds the market by almost five times [YCharts data]. Simply put, this means that the usually positive correlation between TSLA and SPX forces the former to follow the movement of the latter at double or even triple speed. Now the correlation between Tesla stock and the broader market is broken - this goes against normality and is an anomaly that usually does not last long.The second reasonis that the market rally we have seen recently appears to have been fueled by Tesla buyers. Just look at the volumes of the biggest 12 names:Bloomberg, shared by jeroen blokland [Twitter: @jsblokland]The trading volume of Tesla has seen a drastic change in 2023 compared to 2022. In 2022, a 20-day average trading volume between 60 to 90 million shares per day was considered normal, with volumes exceeding 90 to 100 million being considered remarkable. However, in 2023, days with trading volumes below 150 million are now considered modest.In my opinion, this is because in the last few weeks, more people wanted to buy the stock every day - the excitement was enormous when the mood of the crowd changed:socialsentiment.io, author's notesI expect massive profit-taking in TSLA stock now that we are moving from greed to fear again in the market -those who came to chase the rally will most likely start closing their positions en masse, triggering an avalanche effect.Tesla's Technicals Are BearishI am not a professional technician orCMT holder- just sharing my view on technical things that I find interesting for both bulls and bears.The influx of new buyers in recent weeks has pushed the RSI indicator higher - this indicator reached the 85 mark on the 4-hour chart in late January. Since then, however, the strength gradually began to cool down, falling to 63 by February 11. Actually, everything would be fine, but during that time [2 weeks] the stock rose by almost 20%, while the RSI fell - an RSI divergence took place, continuing to this day:TrendSpider, TSLA [4-hour], author's notesThe daily chart confirms the bearish outlook for TSLA. We see that on February 9, TSLA stock failed to break through its local resistance zone - the lows of May, June, and October of 2022 - after which the price cooled down slightly (on February 10, we saw a 5% decline). The resulting candlestick pattern is known as the \"Bearish abandoned baby\":TrendSpider, TSLA (session), author's notesThis reversal pattern was, for example, on April 5 the beginning of a new downward trend:TrendSpider, TSLA, author's notesOr, for example, at the end of November 2021, when the price tried twice to overcome its local resistance but finally gave up and fell by 17% within a few days:TrendSpider, TSLA, author's notesThis is just an indirect sign that Tesla has a difficult road ahead - you cannot just rely on these patterns. However, against the backdrop of the extreme greed I mentioned earlier, the current technical picture is becoming way clearer in the short term. Clearly bearish.Valuation, AgainLet me briefly describe the conclusions I have come to in valuing Tesla last time [Jan. 10, 2023].I took some investment banks' reports and the consensus and made the DCF assumptions much more conservative - from the working capital estimates to the WACC. I also tried to use an exit multiple [EV/EBITDA] for the Enterprise Value calculation instead of Gordon's growth rate to minimize the sensitivity of the model and thus the extent to which the forecast deviates from reality. Then TSLA was valued at $98.53 per share.As the company's subsequent Q4 2022reportshowed, the business has performed much better than I expected - so I have now decided to revise my assumptions again.Despite falling prices and an apparent cooling of demand in China and globally, Teslabeatthe EPS consensus forecast [by 7.28%] for the 8th consecutive quarter.On Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs' U.S. Autos & Industrial Tech team released a report [proprietary source] on how the automotive industry and some manufacturing companies, in particular, are doing in the U.S. market. According to GS estimates, Tesla has increased its share of the U.S. light vehicle market from 3.9% to 5% over the past year, while finished vehicle inventory in that market remains below historical levels - a clear bullish sign for TSLA investors and an excellent reason to note how the cuts in selling prices are making a positive impact on sales.Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs' U.S. Autos & Industrial Tech teamTyler Durden from ZeroHedgegave interesting figuresa few days after the publication of that GS report. Based onVisual Capitalist's data, Tyler notes that Tesla is the absolute leader among its competitors in terms of net profit [and so gross profit and EBIT] per car sold.It seems like Tesla's hard work is paying off. The company, known for having trouble keeping up with demand in the past, has seen a major decrease in its order backlog. In just a matter of months, thebacklog has gonefrom a whopping 476,000 units in July 2022 to a much smaller 74,000 units by December 2022. This decrease can be credited to Tesla's incredible production growth, which saw a 41% increase from 2021 to 2022.I cannot update my model by just tweaking the exit multiple or the WACC part - I have to take into account the positive part of the company's resilience. I decided to stick to consensus revenue growth data; I expect the EBITDA margin to be 8.5% in FY2023 and gradually increase to 15% by E2026. According to my calculations, the EBIT margin will be affected by the upcoming slowdown in the economy, but it will then grow quite actively [1% in FY2023 -> 10% in FY2026].The ratios for working capital - including the ratio of receivables to sales, inventories to sales, and payables to sales - appear to be fairly steady and can be predicted for several years into the future without significant changes, based on the average figures. The ratio of CAPEX to sales is a crucial factor, as it greatly impacts the generation of FCF. In the past, this ratio showed a lot of variabilities, but as Tesla has grown, the ratio has steadily decreased. If there is a recession in late 2023, I anticipate that the ratio of CAPEX to sales will drop even further, possibly to as low as 7%. However, I expect it to rebound in 2024 to 8% and gradually reach 9% by E2026 as production continues to increase. Given all that, I am not making any alterations to my previous CAPEX and NWC predictions.Just like last time, I calculate my WACC based on the CAPM model. But now my inputs shifted a little bit:beta = 2.03;cost of debt = 8%;tax rate = 12.99%;risk-free rate = 3.5%;cost of equity = 4.5%.So my WACC is only 0.3% higher than JPM's - 12.55%. In my opinion, this is a very reasonable discount rate for the risk investors take in buying Tesla shares.However, I have decided to increase the exit EV/EBITDA multiple from 12x to 15x so that my valuation model takes into account the hopes of all investors for abnormal growth in the post-forecast period [which will start in only 4 forecast years].Here's the output table I've got: As you can see, my \"fair\" price target doubled from $98.53 to $196.89 per share.However, the overvaluation has increased by a factor of ~2.5, as TSLA has already made strong gains in recent weeks.It is nice to see that the results of my valuation - despite the rather simple approach of modeling - are around the 60-70% percentile, accordingto Aswath Damodaran's model. This means that I may be not very far from reality.Also, the fact that Tesla's rally was so fast is not just my opinion. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, whose assumptions I discussed in great detail in one of my earlier Tesla articles, have noted that the recent rally severely limits the upside potential of TSLA stock in the near term [proprietary source]. The bulls will need a lot more tailwinds and positive news to keep the stock on the upswing:Morgan Stanley [02/09/2023] + author's notesThe VerdictThe market's feeling pretty greedy right now, according to CNN's Fear & Greed Index - and it looks like Tesla buyers have been driving the recent stock rally. But when the market even hints at slowing down, these buyers are likely to bail and take their profits. The normal relationship between Tesla and the overall market has gone haywire, which probably won't stick around for long. When the bears get the chance, it looks like Tesla stock will be the first to take a nosedive. Technical signals and a huge divergence from the stock's \"fair value\" are already showing this risk.However, I may be wrong on all points of my analysis. If, for example, the February figures CPI turn out better than expected, the markets could receive additional growth impetus - investors now have enough cash to spend. Another risk to my thesis is the subjectivity of technical analysis and valuation. Everyone reads and analyzes charts differently, and different time frames lead to different conclusions. On the monthly chart, TSLA is far from being overbought, and even more - it may seem like a great buy right now.TrendSpider, TSLA [monthly], author's notesThe Morningstar's systemdisagrees with my fair value conclusions - it thinks TSLA is ~12% undervalued even after its big rally:Morningstar PremiumEven though I've doubled my price target, I still think Tesla, Inc. is more likely to see a big sell-off now compared to a few weeks ago or the last time I wrote about the company. I'm keeping my Hold [Neutral] rating but can't suggest buying TSLA because of the reasons mentioned above. I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy this stock for a lot cheaper.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954236617,"gmtCreate":1676380284839,"gmtModify":1676380286870,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Alphabet(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954236617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954894789,"gmtCreate":1676196658041,"gmtModify":1676200494571,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree that these 3 would be a good bet!","listText":"Agree that these 3 would be a good bet!","text":"Agree that these 3 would be a good bet!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954894789","repostId":"2310985484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2310985484","pubTimestamp":1676188159,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2310985484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-12 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: These Will Be the 3 Largest Stocks by 2030","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2310985484","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The faces will look familiar.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>I used to know some guys who met before the beginning of each college football season. They would predict how their respective teams&#39; seasons would likely go.</p><p>The more they drank, the rosier the predictions would get. By the end of the night, at least one of them would predict that his favorite barely above-average team would play for the national championship.</p><p>The most heavily inebriated predictions never came true, of course. However, some of the ones made earlier in the evening, when everyone&#39;s thinking was clearer, often did.</p><p>I bring all of this up because I&#39;m about to make my own predictions -- not about college football, but instead, about stocks. And I won&#39;t look through rose-colored (or adult beverage-filled) glasses. These will be the three largest stocks by 2030, in my opinion. (Note: I&#39;m limiting my predictions to stocks traded on major U.S. exchanges.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6394c7dc4a0cd797a5d13e4605d5a6a6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></h2><p>Sometimes, the obvious answer is the right answer. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a> ranks as the biggest stock today, based on market cap. I think it will remain at the top of the mountain in 2030.</p><p>How will Apple be able to hold onto its lofty perch? It will require more than just minor improvements to new iPhone models. I don&#39;t expect the company to be that conservative.</p><p>I predict that Apple will release a foldable iPhone that will be wildly popular. However, that won&#39;t be its biggest innovation. Look for Apple to launch augmented reality (AR) glasses that will at first be an expensive novelty. But by the end of this decade, I won&#39;t be surprised if the company has much less costly versions with impressive functionality.</p><p>Apple Pay could be another important growth driver for the company. CFO Luca Maestri noted in the company&#39;s recent quarterly update that &#34;a record-breaking number of purchases&#34; were made using the digital-payment service during the holiday shopping season.</p><p>Don&#39;t overlook the role that artificial intelligence (AI) might play in Apple&#39;s growth. When asked about the company&#39;s AI strategy in the fiscal 2023 Q1 conference call, CEO Tim Cook responded that AI &#34;will affect every product in every service that we have.&#34;</p><h2>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a></h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a> currently sits at No. 2, based on market cap. My initial inclination was to predict that the tech giant would lose a spot or two by 2030. However, the more I thought about it, the more I realized that Microsoft is likely to hold onto its position, albeit by a much narrower cushion than it enjoys today.</p><p>The best thing that Microsoft has going in its favor is that it&#39;s involved in so many hot growth areas. I anticipate that the company will continue to dominate the office productivity market. It will probably also capture a greater market share in the cloud hosting market with its Azure platform.</p><p>I&#39;m skeptical that Microsoft&#39;s planned acquisition of <b>Activision Blizzard</b> will close, due to regulatory opposition. But I still expect the company will remain a major player in the gaming world with Xbox.</p><p>Microsoft is making a huge investment in AI, notably including its stake in OpenAI. I don&#39;t expect that the company&#39;s Bing search engine will topple Alphabet&#39;s Google, even with ChatGPT integration. However, I do predict that Microsoft&#39;s AI tools will further cement its position in corporate IT departments.</p><h2>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a></h2><p>I had a hard time deciding whether to go with Alphabet (which currently ranks in third place) or with Amazon. My hunch is that it&#39;s going to be really close between the two. Amazon could slip past Alphabet by 2030. If so, the key differentiator could be Amazon&#39;s improving profits and free cash flow.</p><p>But I ultimately went with Alphabet. Why? It boils down to two letters: A and I.</p><p>Sure, Amazon is a formidable AI leader in its own right. However, I think that OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT threat has stirred the Google dragon. And I look for the dragon to start breathing fire soon.</p><p>Alphabet has an opportunity to win developers&#39; hearts and minds with its rival LaMDA AI technology. Integrating LaMDA-based Bard into Google Search won&#39;t result in lost advertising revenue, in my view. I fully anticipate that Alphabet will be able to monetize the AI app.</p><p>Don&#39;t forget Alphabet&#39;s Waymo unit, either. The adoption of AI-powered self-driving car technology will increase significantly by the end of the decade. Waymo is likely to be one of the biggest winners.</p><h2>Is bigger better?</h2><p>No, bigger isn&#39;t always better. In this case, though, I think that the biggest stocks of 2030 will make investors solid returns between now and then.</p><p>Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet (I&#39;d throw Amazon in there with them, too) might not be 10-baggers as some smaller stocks will be. But these already huge companies have plenty of room to run.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: These Will Be the 3 Largest Stocks by 2030</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: These Will Be the 3 Largest Stocks by 2030\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-12 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/11/opinion-these-will-be-the-3-largest-stocks-by-2030/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I used to know some guys who met before the beginning of each college football season. They would predict how their respective teams' seasons would likely go.The more they drank, the rosier the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/11/opinion-these-will-be-the-3-largest-stocks-by-2030/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","AAPL":"苹果","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4577":"网络游戏","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","SG9999018857.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Acc SGD-H","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","AR":"Antero Resources Corp","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","SG9999014880.SGD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc SGD","AMZN":"亚马逊","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件","GOOG":"谷歌","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4515":"5G概念","SG9999001077.SGD":"United International Growth Fund SGD","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/11/opinion-these-will-be-the-3-largest-stocks-by-2030/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2310985484","content_text":"I used to know some guys who met before the beginning of each college football season. They would predict how their respective teams' seasons would likely go.The more they drank, the rosier the predictions would get. By the end of the night, at least one of them would predict that his favorite barely above-average team would play for the national championship.The most heavily inebriated predictions never came true, of course. However, some of the ones made earlier in the evening, when everyone's thinking was clearer, often did.I bring all of this up because I'm about to make my own predictions -- not about college football, but instead, about stocks. And I won't look through rose-colored (or adult beverage-filled) glasses. These will be the three largest stocks by 2030, in my opinion. (Note: I'm limiting my predictions to stocks traded on major U.S. exchanges.)Image source: Getty Images.1. AppleSometimes, the obvious answer is the right answer. Apple  ranks as the biggest stock today, based on market cap. I think it will remain at the top of the mountain in 2030.How will Apple be able to hold onto its lofty perch? It will require more than just minor improvements to new iPhone models. I don't expect the company to be that conservative.I predict that Apple will release a foldable iPhone that will be wildly popular. However, that won't be its biggest innovation. Look for Apple to launch augmented reality (AR) glasses that will at first be an expensive novelty. But by the end of this decade, I won't be surprised if the company has much less costly versions with impressive functionality.Apple Pay could be another important growth driver for the company. CFO Luca Maestri noted in the company's recent quarterly update that \"a record-breaking number of purchases\" were made using the digital-payment service during the holiday shopping season.Don't overlook the role that artificial intelligence (AI) might play in Apple's growth. When asked about the company's AI strategy in the fiscal 2023 Q1 conference call, CEO Tim Cook responded that AI \"will affect every product in every service that we have.\"2. MicrosoftMicrosoft  currently sits at No. 2, based on market cap. My initial inclination was to predict that the tech giant would lose a spot or two by 2030. However, the more I thought about it, the more I realized that Microsoft is likely to hold onto its position, albeit by a much narrower cushion than it enjoys today.The best thing that Microsoft has going in its favor is that it's involved in so many hot growth areas. I anticipate that the company will continue to dominate the office productivity market. It will probably also capture a greater market share in the cloud hosting market with its Azure platform.I'm skeptical that Microsoft's planned acquisition of Activision Blizzard will close, due to regulatory opposition. But I still expect the company will remain a major player in the gaming world with Xbox.Microsoft is making a huge investment in AI, notably including its stake in OpenAI. I don't expect that the company's Bing search engine will topple Alphabet's Google, even with ChatGPT integration. However, I do predict that Microsoft's AI tools will further cement its position in corporate IT departments.3. AlphabetI had a hard time deciding whether to go with Alphabet (which currently ranks in third place) or with Amazon. My hunch is that it's going to be really close between the two. Amazon could slip past Alphabet by 2030. If so, the key differentiator could be Amazon's improving profits and free cash flow.But I ultimately went with Alphabet. Why? It boils down to two letters: A and I.Sure, Amazon is a formidable AI leader in its own right. However, I think that OpenAI's ChatGPT threat has stirred the Google dragon. And I look for the dragon to start breathing fire soon.Alphabet has an opportunity to win developers' hearts and minds with its rival LaMDA AI technology. Integrating LaMDA-based Bard into Google Search won't result in lost advertising revenue, in my view. I fully anticipate that Alphabet will be able to monetize the AI app.Don't forget Alphabet's Waymo unit, either. The adoption of AI-powered self-driving car technology will increase significantly by the end of the decade. Waymo is likely to be one of the biggest winners.Is bigger better?No, bigger isn't always better. In this case, though, I think that the biggest stocks of 2030 will make investors solid returns between now and then.Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet (I'd throw Amazon in there with them, too) might not be 10-baggers as some smaller stocks will be. But these already huge companies have plenty of room to run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":294527646810312,"gmtCreate":1712924508458,"gmtModify":1712924512430,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; Apple is just a great company&nbsp;with a greater balance sheet! Not too worried tht its been seen to be slow in the AI developments as it will surely&nbsp;catchup and be on the way again to the top...also needs another new product though and hope it comes out soon!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; Apple is just a great company&nbsp;with a greater balance sheet! Not too worried tht its been seen to be slow in the AI developments as it will surely&nbsp;catchup and be on the way again to the top...also needs another new product though and hope it comes out soon!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple is just a great company with a greater balance sheet! Not too worried tht its been seen to be slow in the AI developments as it will surely catchup and be on the way again to the top...also needs another new product though and hope it comes out soon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/294527646810312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957484626,"gmtCreate":1677493644665,"gmtModify":1677493648440,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup... agree that selloff of google over chat gpt is temporary!","listText":"Yup... agree that selloff of google over chat gpt is temporary!","text":"Yup... agree that selloff of google over chat gpt is temporary!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957484626","repostId":"2314342494","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2314342494","pubTimestamp":1677490860,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2314342494?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-27 17:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Microsoft Be Setting Up Google for a Huge Win?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2314342494","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What doesn't kill Google could make it stronger.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The conventional wisdom is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> could be mounting a serious threat to Alphabet&#39;s (GOOG) (GOOGL) dominance in search. Microsoft integrated OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT chatbot into a new version of the Bing search engine. Google Search still hasn&#39;t launched its generative AI product called Bard for widespread use.</p><p>However, the conventional wisdom can sometimes be turned upside down. Could Microsoft actually be setting up Google for a huge win?</p><h2>The new Bing&#39;s bumbles</h2><p>Much ado was made about Google&#39;s initial misstep with its introduction of Bard. The chatbot answered a question about the James Webb Space Telescope incorrectly, contributing to a steep sell-off in Alphabet stock. But that stumble pales in comparison with the new Bing&#39;s bumbles.</p><p>The ChatGPT-powered Bing was both belligerent and bizarre in conversations with users following its launch. It told <i>New York Times</i> columnist Kevin Roose that it loved him. Bing also said that it wanted to be &#34;independent&#34; and &#34;alive&#34; in the chat with Roose.</p><p>Bing insulted other users. It even made threats about stealing nuclear codes and engineering deadly viruses. Fortunately, the chatbot can&#39;t act on those threats.</p><p>Ultimately, Microsoft had to reign in the new Bing. The company&#39;s engineers limited the number of questions to five per session. It also set a maximum of 50 questions per day. Microsoft explained in a blog that extended chat sessions could cause Bing to &#34;give responses that are not necessarily helpful or in line with our designed tone.&#34; That&#39;s certainly one way to put it. Microsoft later increased the thresholds to six questions per session and 60 questions per day after hearing complaints from users.</p><h2>Paving the way for a Google victory?</h2><p>I think there&#39;s a real possibility that Microsoft&#39;s problems with the new Bing could pave the way for a Google victory. For one thing, Alphabet has had an opportunity to learn from Microsoft&#39;s mistakes. It would be surprising if Bard doesn&#39;t have guardrails in place that prevent it from going berserk like Bing has.</p><p>What if Bard doesn&#39;t require the usage limitations that Microsoft has imposed on the new Bing but still gives helpful (and sane) responses? You can bet that many if not most of the people who have toyed with Bing&#39;s chat functionality will flock to Google&#39;s app. I know I would.</p><p>Some have predicted that generative AI would disrupt Alphabet&#39;s Google Search business. Maybe it will. However, many people might have overlooked what&#39;s arguably the most important statement from Microsoft after its troubles with Bing. The tech giant said that its chat integration &#34;is not a replacement or substitute for the search engine.&#34; The company added that the new Bing chatbot is instead &#34;a tool to better understand and make sense of the world.&#34; If Microsoft doesn&#39;t think that generative AI will replace search, Google&#39;s business could be much safer than the doomsayers believe.</p><p>Friedrich Nietzsche once wrote that &#34;what doesn&#39;t kill me, makes me stronger.&#34; Kelly Clarkson also adopted the idea in her hit song &#34;Stronger.&#34; The adage often proves to be true. I suspect that it could be in this case. If Microsoft&#39;s new Bing isn&#39;t the Google killer that some have proclaimed it to be, Google could come out even stronger than it was before.</p><h2>No Aesop&#39;s fable</h2><p>In Aesop&#39;s fable about the tortoise and the hare, the hare gets off to a fast start while the tortoise plods along. In the end, though, the tortoise wins the race by being slow and steady. It could be tempting to view Microsoft as the hare and Alphabet as the tortoise. However, I don&#39;t think Aesop&#39;s fable is applicable here.</p><p>For one thing, neither of these two companies has plodded along. They&#39;re both moving rapidly. Alphabet has even pioneered some of the AI models used in ChatGPT and the new Bing.</p><p>More importantly, though, there could be -- and probably will be -- multiple winners in the AI race. I believe this will be the case, with several AI stocks delivering significant returns over the next decade and beyond. Could Microsoft be setting up Google for a huge win because of its stumbles with the new Bing? It&#39;s quite possible. However, I predict that they&#39;ll both be huge winners in AI over the long run.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Microsoft Be Setting Up Google for a Huge Win?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Microsoft Be Setting Up Google for a Huge Win?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-27 17:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/26/could-microsoft-be-setting-up-google-for-a-huge-wi/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The conventional wisdom is that Microsoft could be mounting a serious threat to Alphabet's (GOOG) (GOOGL) dominance in search. Microsoft integrated OpenAI's ChatGPT chatbot into a new version of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/26/could-microsoft-be-setting-up-google-for-a-huge-wi/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/26/could-microsoft-be-setting-up-google-for-a-huge-wi/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2314342494","content_text":"The conventional wisdom is that Microsoft could be mounting a serious threat to Alphabet's (GOOG) (GOOGL) dominance in search. Microsoft integrated OpenAI's ChatGPT chatbot into a new version of the Bing search engine. Google Search still hasn't launched its generative AI product called Bard for widespread use.However, the conventional wisdom can sometimes be turned upside down. Could Microsoft actually be setting up Google for a huge win?The new Bing's bumblesMuch ado was made about Google's initial misstep with its introduction of Bard. The chatbot answered a question about the James Webb Space Telescope incorrectly, contributing to a steep sell-off in Alphabet stock. But that stumble pales in comparison with the new Bing's bumbles.The ChatGPT-powered Bing was both belligerent and bizarre in conversations with users following its launch. It told New York Times columnist Kevin Roose that it loved him. Bing also said that it wanted to be \"independent\" and \"alive\" in the chat with Roose.Bing insulted other users. It even made threats about stealing nuclear codes and engineering deadly viruses. Fortunately, the chatbot can't act on those threats.Ultimately, Microsoft had to reign in the new Bing. The company's engineers limited the number of questions to five per session. It also set a maximum of 50 questions per day. Microsoft explained in a blog that extended chat sessions could cause Bing to \"give responses that are not necessarily helpful or in line with our designed tone.\" That's certainly one way to put it. Microsoft later increased the thresholds to six questions per session and 60 questions per day after hearing complaints from users.Paving the way for a Google victory?I think there's a real possibility that Microsoft's problems with the new Bing could pave the way for a Google victory. For one thing, Alphabet has had an opportunity to learn from Microsoft's mistakes. It would be surprising if Bard doesn't have guardrails in place that prevent it from going berserk like Bing has.What if Bard doesn't require the usage limitations that Microsoft has imposed on the new Bing but still gives helpful (and sane) responses? You can bet that many if not most of the people who have toyed with Bing's chat functionality will flock to Google's app. I know I would.Some have predicted that generative AI would disrupt Alphabet's Google Search business. Maybe it will. However, many people might have overlooked what's arguably the most important statement from Microsoft after its troubles with Bing. The tech giant said that its chat integration \"is not a replacement or substitute for the search engine.\" The company added that the new Bing chatbot is instead \"a tool to better understand and make sense of the world.\" If Microsoft doesn't think that generative AI will replace search, Google's business could be much safer than the doomsayers believe.Friedrich Nietzsche once wrote that \"what doesn't kill me, makes me stronger.\" Kelly Clarkson also adopted the idea in her hit song \"Stronger.\" The adage often proves to be true. I suspect that it could be in this case. If Microsoft's new Bing isn't the Google killer that some have proclaimed it to be, Google could come out even stronger than it was before.No Aesop's fableIn Aesop's fable about the tortoise and the hare, the hare gets off to a fast start while the tortoise plods along. In the end, though, the tortoise wins the race by being slow and steady. It could be tempting to view Microsoft as the hare and Alphabet as the tortoise. However, I don't think Aesop's fable is applicable here.For one thing, neither of these two companies has plodded along. They're both moving rapidly. Alphabet has even pioneered some of the AI models used in ChatGPT and the new Bing.More importantly, though, there could be -- and probably will be -- multiple winners in the AI race. I believe this will be the case, with several AI stocks delivering significant returns over the next decade and beyond. Could Microsoft be setting up Google for a huge win because of its stumbles with the new Bing? It's quite possible. However, I predict that they'll both be huge winners in AI over the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315691869589800,"gmtCreate":1718104550232,"gmtModify":1718191445759,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"New level! So far tiger is a good platform to trade with lot of options and capabilities which is good for flexibility but sometimes too many options and also needs some imProvements on making things simpler in some cases! So far so good... enjoying the ride!","listText":"New level! So far tiger is a good platform to trade with lot of options and capabilities which is good for flexibility but sometimes too many options and also needs some imProvements on making things simpler in some cases! So far so good... enjoying the ride!","text":"New level! So far tiger is a good platform to trade with lot of options and capabilities which is good for flexibility but sometimes too many options and also needs some imProvements on making things simpler in some cases! So far so good... enjoying the ride!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/111ecdcdf6b90d0a406313722c344b76","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315691869589800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667618000160","authorId":"3527667618000160","name":"CaptainTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d0e54b757b231beb8b11fd49de85317","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667618000160","authorIdStr":"3527667618000160"},"content":"Thanks! Welcome to Tiger! Wishing you all the best on your trading journey, and feel free to tag me anytime if you encounter any problems in the community!","text":"Thanks! Welcome to Tiger! Wishing you all the best on your trading journey, and feel free to tag me anytime if you encounter any problems in the community!","html":"Thanks! Welcome to Tiger! Wishing you all the best on your trading journey, and feel free to tag me anytime if you encounter any problems in the community!"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":309203785408648,"gmtCreate":1716516918998,"gmtModify":1716516923338,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well most of the times I am a long term investor who is looking for long term gains....😎 and then i am also a trader at times trying to buy dips and sell the highs...😂 and then sometimes a dividend investor who puts some money to get steady cash flow as well 😃... so what am i? 🤔... probably like all of you... just an avg guy&nbsp;trying to find financial freedom through the markets....and a strong will to learn and succeed! 👍🏻","listText":"Well most of the times I am a long term investor who is looking for long term gains....😎 and then i am also a trader at times trying to buy dips and sell the highs...😂 and then sometimes a dividend investor who puts some money to get steady cash flow as well 😃... so what am i? 🤔... probably like all of you... just an avg guy&nbsp;trying to find financial freedom through the markets....and a strong will to learn and succeed! 👍🏻","text":"Well most of the times I am a long term investor who is looking for long term gains....😎 and then i am also a trader at times trying to buy dips and sell the highs...😂 and then sometimes a dividend investor who puts some money to get steady cash flow as well 😃... so what am i? 🤔... probably like all of you... just an avg guy trying to find financial freedom through the markets....and a strong will to learn and succeed! 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/309203785408648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954289807,"gmtCreate":1676391240810,"gmtModify":1676391245626,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not good 😞","listText":"Not good 😞","text":"Not good 😞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954289807","repostId":"1164364184","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164364184","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1676381434,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164364184?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-14 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Consumer Prices Rose 6.4% in January, Higher Than Expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164364184","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Inflation turned higher to start 2023, as rising gas and fuel prices took their toll on consumers, t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation turned higher to start 2023, as rising gas and fuel prices took their toll on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.</p><p>The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% for the month, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.</p><p>Excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75955999912ddd64e2f404358a24dd88\" tg-width=\"1172\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Rising shelter costs accounted for about half the monthly increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago.</p><p>Energy also was a significant contributor, up 2% and 8.7% respectively, while food costs rose 0.5% and 10.1% respectively.</p><p>Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% for the month and were down 1.8% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS report.</p><p>While price increases had been abating in recent months, January’s data shows that inflation is still a force in a U.S. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year.</p><p>That has come despite Federal Reserve efforts to quell the problem. The central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rate eight times since March 2022 as inflation rose to its highest level in 41 years last summer.</p><p>In recent days, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has talked about “disinflationary” forces at play, but January’s numbers show the central bank probably still has work to do.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Consumer Prices Rose 6.4% in January, Higher Than Expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Consumer Prices Rose 6.4% in January, Higher Than Expected\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-14 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation turned higher to start 2023, as rising gas and fuel prices took their toll on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.</p><p>The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% for the month, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.</p><p>Excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75955999912ddd64e2f404358a24dd88\" tg-width=\"1172\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Rising shelter costs accounted for about half the monthly increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago.</p><p>Energy also was a significant contributor, up 2% and 8.7% respectively, while food costs rose 0.5% and 10.1% respectively.</p><p>Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% for the month and were down 1.8% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS report.</p><p>While price increases had been abating in recent months, January’s data shows that inflation is still a force in a U.S. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year.</p><p>That has come despite Federal Reserve efforts to quell the problem. The central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rate eight times since March 2022 as inflation rose to its highest level in 41 years last summer.</p><p>In recent days, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has talked about “disinflationary” forces at play, but January’s numbers show the central bank probably still has work to do.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164364184","content_text":"Inflation turned higher to start 2023, as rising gas and fuel prices took their toll on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% for the month, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.Excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%.Rising shelter costs accounted for about half the monthly increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago.Energy also was a significant contributor, up 2% and 8.7% respectively, while food costs rose 0.5% and 10.1% respectively.Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% for the month and were down 1.8% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS report.While price increases had been abating in recent months, January’s data shows that inflation is still a force in a U.S. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year.That has come despite Federal Reserve efforts to quell the problem. The central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rate eight times since March 2022 as inflation rose to its highest level in 41 years last summer.In recent days, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has talked about “disinflationary” forces at play, but January’s numbers show the central bank probably still has work to do.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954231467,"gmtCreate":1676379622560,"gmtModify":1676381270706,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla stock price&nbsp;relies on one primary thing- E&nbsp;Musk. If&nbsp;he continues to sell stock to waste $ (twitterfiasco!) then it goes down! On the other hand if he continues focus on expanding the key business ie innovation in cars , trucks, batteries then tesla will go up!&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla stock price&nbsp;relies on one primary thing- E&nbsp;Musk. If&nbsp;he continues to sell stock to waste $ (twitterfiasco!) then it goes down! On the other hand if he continues focus on expanding the key business ie innovation in cars , trucks, batteries then tesla will go up!&nbsp;","text":"Tesla stock price relies on one primary thing- E Musk. If he continues to sell stock to waste $ (twitterfiasco!) then it goes down! On the other hand if he continues focus on expanding the key business ie innovation in cars , trucks, batteries then tesla will go up!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954231467","repostId":"1161160010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161160010","pubTimestamp":1676359129,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161160010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-14 15:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Cuts Model 3 and Increases Model Y Prices Again in the U.S.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161160010","media":"Teslarati","summary":"Tesla has cut pricing on a Model 3 configuration but has raised prices on two Model Y configurations","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla has cut pricing on a Model 3 configuration but has raised prices on two Model Y configurations for the second time in as many days.</p><p>Tesla cut Model 3 Rear-Wheel-Drive prices by $500, bringing the vehicle down to $42,990 from $43,490. This trim, in particular, offers 272 miles of range and a 140 MPH top speed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc60f2a36fcc94b5b1b7ca0247903ccc\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1044\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Meanwhile, Tesla Model Y All-Wheel-Drive configurations with the 4680 battery pack were increased by $500 to $51,990, up from $51,490. Tesla raised prices on this vehicle on Saturday and then again late Sunday.</p><p>This trim offers 279 miles of range and a 135 MPH top speed. It appears that this trim is currently sold out, according to Tesla’s Existing Inventory.</p><p>Tesla Model Y Performance trims were raised by $500 as well, going from $58,490 to $58,990. These vehicles were also increased by $500 on Saturday, with additional increases occurring on Sunday.</p><p>Tesla Model Y Performance configurations have 303 miles of range and a 155 MPH top speed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49adee0b4cb18251c8a2942184a27c26\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1049\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla continues to adjust the prices of its vehicles after cutting up to $13,000 off of some models in its lineup in early January. However, the pricing has been anything but stable since the beginning of the year. The Model Y has been the subject of five price changes since January 1, with consumers wondering when the vehicles will reach stability.</p><p>Tesla has perhaps been adjusting pricing so frequently to see at what levels demand can continue to be stoked. Tesla has some of the best profits per vehicle in the industry. After the $13,000 price cuts on the Model Y and significant decreases on its other models at the beginning of the year, which were likely used to increase demand and undercut the competition, the automaker could be looking to settle for more stable numbers that will return profitability to higher levels.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1629091926461","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Cuts Model 3 and Increases Model Y Prices Again in the U.S.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Cuts Model 3 and Increases Model Y Prices Again in the U.S.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-14 15:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-model-y-prices-adjustments-feb-2023/><strong>Teslarati</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla has cut pricing on a Model 3 configuration but has raised prices on two Model Y configurations for the second time in as many days.Tesla cut Model 3 Rear-Wheel-Drive prices by $500, bringing the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-model-y-prices-adjustments-feb-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-model-y-prices-adjustments-feb-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161160010","content_text":"Tesla has cut pricing on a Model 3 configuration but has raised prices on two Model Y configurations for the second time in as many days.Tesla cut Model 3 Rear-Wheel-Drive prices by $500, bringing the vehicle down to $42,990 from $43,490. This trim, in particular, offers 272 miles of range and a 140 MPH top speed.Meanwhile, Tesla Model Y All-Wheel-Drive configurations with the 4680 battery pack were increased by $500 to $51,990, up from $51,490. Tesla raised prices on this vehicle on Saturday and then again late Sunday.This trim offers 279 miles of range and a 135 MPH top speed. It appears that this trim is currently sold out, according to Tesla’s Existing Inventory.Tesla Model Y Performance trims were raised by $500 as well, going from $58,490 to $58,990. These vehicles were also increased by $500 on Saturday, with additional increases occurring on Sunday.Tesla Model Y Performance configurations have 303 miles of range and a 155 MPH top speed.Tesla continues to adjust the prices of its vehicles after cutting up to $13,000 off of some models in its lineup in early January. However, the pricing has been anything but stable since the beginning of the year. The Model Y has been the subject of five price changes since January 1, with consumers wondering when the vehicles will reach stability.Tesla has perhaps been adjusting pricing so frequently to see at what levels demand can continue to be stoked. Tesla has some of the best profits per vehicle in the industry. After the $13,000 price cuts on the Model Y and significant decreases on its other models at the beginning of the year, which were likely used to increase demand and undercut the competition, the automaker could be looking to settle for more stable numbers that will return profitability to higher levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318195157971024,"gmtCreate":1718722948379,"gmtModify":1718722951528,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"High profit anytime!","listText":"High profit anytime!","text":"High profit anytime!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/318195157971024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343495855169568,"gmtCreate":1724890791482,"gmtModify":1724902402953,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think its too negative a valuation.... nvidia is still ahead of the rest and it should not tumble &nbsp;significantly. The profit margins and incoming. Business growth is still significant enough and AI is just starting in my opiinion. We are going to see a slow rise if stock price for nvidia again.","listText":"I think its too negative a valuation.... nvidia is still ahead of the rest and it should not tumble &nbsp;significantly. The profit margins and incoming. Business growth is still significant enough and AI is just starting in my opiinion. We are going to see a slow rise if stock price for nvidia again.","text":"I think its too negative a valuation.... nvidia is still ahead of the rest and it should not tumble significantly. The profit margins and incoming. Business growth is still significant enough and AI is just starting in my opiinion. We are going to see a slow rise if stock price for nvidia again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343495855169568","repostId":"2463410724","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2463410724","pubTimestamp":1724888623,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463410724?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-29 07:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Review: Huang Fumbles, Stock Tumbles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463410724","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia Investor Relations In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's Data Center revenue increased to $26.27B  driven by strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPU computing platform, with sequential growth coming from consumer internet and enterprise companies. While Nvidia's Data Center revenues weren't going to grow at triple-digit rates forever, the sequential growth slowing down to 16% q/q points to marked deceleration ahead!Nvidia Investor Relations In addition to the obvious strength in the Data Center segment, Nvidia delivered strong results in its Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments. The +16% y/y growth in Gaming was a standout number, given poor performance in this space from its rival Advanced Micro Devices","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Nvidia Corporation's Q2 FY2025 report showed a double-beat with $30.04B in revenue and $0.68 EPS, but the narrower beat failed to prevent a post-earnings stock dip amid worrisome gross margin contraction.</li><li>Despite strong growth in Data Center and other segments, Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand and margins remain questionable due to industry cyclicality and competition.</li><li>Nvidia's valuation remains high, and the stock is overvalued at $118 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~7%, below my investment hurdle rate.</li><li>I maintain a “Neutral/Hold” rating on Nvidia due to unfavorable risk/reward and a lack of margin of safety.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>hapabapa</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Brief Review Of Nvidia's Q2 FY2025 Report</h2> <p>Ahead of its Q2 FY2025 earnings print, <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) was projected to achieve quarterly revenues and Normalized EPS of $28.71B and $0.64, respectively.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/26/51572009-17246828759428933.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Estimates</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>With Nvidia posting $30.04B<span> in revenues and $0.68 in normalized EPS for Q2 FY2025, the semiconductor giant has delivered yet another double-beat on consensus street estimates; however, the stock is </span>tumbling lower<span> in the after-hours session, down -5% at the time of writing:</span></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248771429510088.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Google Finance</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While Nvidia is still delivering AI-powered hypergrowth, the quantum of the top and bottom-line beats narrowed further in Q2 amid a contraction in gross margins. Given the post-ER sell-off, I think it is fair to say that Nvidia failed to meet Mr. Market's lofty pre-ER expectations.</p> <p>In my earnings preview note, I expressed caution on NVDA:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Ahead of its<span> upcoming Q2 FY2025 report, Nvidia Corporation stock is experiencing significant volatility. While a double beat is likely, the sustainability of Nvidia's rapid growth and high margins remains uncertain. Despite Nvidia's strong business performance and leadership in the burgeoning AI chips market, I maintain a \"Neutral/Hold\" rating due to valuation concerns and a troublesome technical setup.</span></em></p> <p>Source: \"Nvidia: You Have Been Pumped And Warned By The Cloud Hyperscaler Honchos.\"</p> </blockquote> <p>And given the adverse market reaction to Nvidia's double-beat [plus solid Q3 guidance of $32.5B ($800M above consensus estimate) and announcement of a new $50B buyback program], my neutral stance seems justified.</p> <p>But let's dig deeper into the numbers!</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248776648762279.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Investor Relations</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's Data Center revenue increased to $26.27B (+154% y/y, +16% q/q) driven by strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPU computing platform, with sequential growth coming from consumer internet and enterprise companies. While Nvidia's Data Center revenues weren't going to grow at triple-digit rates forever, the sequential growth slowing down to 16% q/q points to marked deceleration ahead!</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248785909796627.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Investor Relations</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In addition to the obvious strength in the Data Center segment, Nvidia delivered strong results in its Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments. The +16% y/y growth in Gaming was a standout number, given poor performance in this space from its rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).</p> <p>Now, at this point, Nvidia is undoubtedly a Data Center-centric business [~87% of total revenues], and so, a delayed production ramp for Blackwell due to changes in the Blackwell GPU mask threatened to introduce significant uncertainty into the semiconductor giant's otherwise rosy business outlook.</p> <p>However, according to Nvidia's CEO, Blackwell samples were shipped out in Q2, and the next-gen GPUs are on track for ramped-up production in the back half of FY2025. Here's what CEO Jensen Huang had to say in the Q2 FY25 release:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible. NVIDIA achieved record revenues as global data centers are in full throttle to modernize the entire computing stack with accelerated computing and generative AI.</em></p> <p><em>Blackwell samples are shipping to our partners and customers. Spectrum-X Ethernet for AI and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are two new product categories achieving significant scale, demonstrating that NVIDIA is a full-stack and data center-scale platform. Across the entire stack and ecosystem, we are helping frontier model makers to consumer internet services, and now enterprises. Generative AI will revolutionize every industry.</em></p> <p>- <em>Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>Given the cyclicality associated with semiconductors and the fact that some of its largest customers - cloud hyperscalers - are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro] in the industry, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. While Nvidia Q2 revenue guidance of $32.5B exceeding street expectations of $31.7B is positive, the <strong>gross margin contraction</strong> seen in Q2 [non-GAAP gross margins: -320 bps q/q] is set to deepen to the low-70s in the back half of FY2025.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248796247900434.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Investor Relations</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>With its vast first-mover advantage in AI, Nvidia's hardware + CUDA software ecosystem is commanding tremendous pricing power. However, as I alluded to in \"Nvidia Q1 FY2025 Review: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance,\" Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. On the earnings call, Nvidia leadership said that the inventory crunch for its Hopper GPUs is easing. Did Huang &amp; Co. just fumble the ball?</p> <p>Is Nvidia's current margin profile sustainable? Based on historical data for the semiconductor industry, I don't think so, but only time will reveal the truth.</p> <p>Now, in Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's quarterly operational cash flow rose to $14.5B (up $6.3B y/y), and quarterly free cash flow jumped to $13.5B (up $6.5B y/y) - however, both of these figures were down sequentially (on a q/q basis) due to higher cash taxes.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-1724880640152312.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Investor Relations</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In recent quarters, I have insisted on Nvidia strengthening its balance sheet in preparation for a cyclical downturn:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>While Nvidia's balance sheet is robust, I would personally like NVDA to raise some capital at current valuation to bolster its cash position and bring it in line with a level that resembles other $1.8T companies. The semiconductor industry is cyclical by nature, and I want Nvidia to have a massive cash hoard that can allow the company to keep growing through an industry downturn.</em></p> <p>Source: \"Nvidia's Q4 Report Is A Blowout: Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\"</p> </blockquote> <p>Yes, Nvidia's cash and short-term investments have increased to $34.8B; however, the company aggressively returning its free cash flows back to shareholders at NVDA current valuation [~20x P/S] continues to perplex me. In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia returned $7.4B to shareholders via stock buybacks and dividends, and the semiconductor giant just announced a fresh addition of $50B to its buyback program.</p> <p>Given the historical cyclicality associated with semis, I still think that raising capital at a $3T+ market capitalization is a far better idea for Nvidia than returning capital to shareholders via buybacks at ~20x P/S [FY2025E].</p> <h2>Nvidia's Fair Value And Expected Returns</h2> <p>In light of Nvidia's Q2 FY2025 report, I am sticking with my pre-earnings valuation model assumptions for the semiconductor giant:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248817508753057.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model TQIG.org (TQIG.org)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>On the back of a 6% post-ER dip in NVDA stock, the gap between Nvidia's stock price and our fair value estimate has narrowed; however, at $118 per share, NVDA remains significantly overvalued in my book.</p> <p>Assuming a base case exit multiple of 25x P/FCF, I see Nvidia rising to $165 per share by 2029. This price target translates to a 5-year expected CAGR return of ~7% from current levels.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/28/51572009-17248819711675887.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model (TQIG.org)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While Nvidia's 5-year expected CAGR has improved from 5.34% to 6.99% in light of its post-ER dip, it continues to fall short of my investment hurdle rate (of 15%) and long-term market - S&amp;P 500 (SP500) - returns (of 8%-10% per year). Hence, Nvidia is still not an attractive investment under our valuation process.</p> <h2>Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q2 Earnings?</h2> <p>In my view, Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious \"picks and shovels\" play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, and the long-term risk/reward doesn't justify the allocation of fresh capital right now. Due to unfavorable risk/reward and sheer lack of a margin of safety, I am going to stick to the sidelines on Nvidia Corporation stock.</p> <p>Earlier in the week, I laid out the following scenarios:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Technically, NVDA stock has regained short-term momentum ahead of earnings after re-claiming the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. However, the bounce in NVDA stock seems to be pausing at the key 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.</em></p> <p><em>If we do see NVDA making a sustained push above $130, I think the ongoing bounce can extend to $140 and then to the $152-171 range.</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/26/51572009-1724687901712416.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Stock Chart 08/26/2024 (TrendSpider)</p></figcaption></figure><p><em>On the flip side, given the ongoing rollover in momentum indicators - Weekly RSI and MACD - selling pressure could re-appear in upcoming sessions. A strong rejection from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could spark a deeper drawdown, which could send NVDA stock spiraling down to the $65-81 range marked on the chart below.</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/26/51572009-1724688590684218.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Nvidia Stock Chart 08/26/2024 (TrendSpider)</p></figcaption></figure><p>Source: \"Nvidia: You Have Been Pumped And Warned By The Cloud Hyperscaler Honchos.\"</p> </blockquote> <p>Given the 5-6% drop in Nvidia Corporation stock post-earnings, I believe we are seeing a strong rejection from the key 78.6% Fibonacci level. If this sell-off sticks and picks up steam in the upcoming sessions, a deeper drawdown to the $65-81 range is a plausible outcome for the next 6-12 months.</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> Considering Nvidia's long-term risk/reward and technicals, I continue to rate Nvidia Corporation stock \"Neutral/Hold\" at $118 per share.</p> <div></div> <p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Review: Huang Fumbles, Stock Tumbles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Q2 FY2025 Review: Huang Fumbles, Stock Tumbles\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-29 07:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717746-nvidia-q2-fy2025-review-huang-fumbles-stock-tumbles><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation's Q2 FY2025 report showed a double-beat with $30.04B in revenue and $0.68 EPS, but the narrower beat failed to prevent a post-earnings stock dip amid worrisome gross margin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717746-nvidia-q2-fy2025-review-huang-fumbles-stock-tumbles\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1097995358/image_1097995358.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - 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USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717746-nvidia-q2-fy2025-review-huang-fumbles-stock-tumbles","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2463410724","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation's Q2 FY2025 report showed a double-beat with $30.04B in revenue and $0.68 EPS, but the narrower beat failed to prevent a post-earnings stock dip amid worrisome gross margin contraction.Despite strong growth in Data Center and other segments, Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand and margins remain questionable due to industry cyclicality and competition.Nvidia's valuation remains high, and the stock is overvalued at $118 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~7%, below my investment hurdle rate.I maintain a “Neutral/Hold” rating on Nvidia due to unfavorable risk/reward and a lack of margin of safety.hapabapa Brief Review Of Nvidia's Q2 FY2025 Report Ahead of its Q2 FY2025 earnings print, Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was projected to achieve quarterly revenues and Normalized EPS of $28.71B and $0.64, respectively. Nvidia Q2 FY2025 Estimates With Nvidia posting $30.04B in revenues and $0.68 in normalized EPS for Q2 FY2025, the semiconductor giant has delivered yet another double-beat on consensus street estimates; however, the stock is tumbling lower in the after-hours session, down -5% at the time of writing: Google Finance While Nvidia is still delivering AI-powered hypergrowth, the quantum of the top and bottom-line beats narrowed further in Q2 amid a contraction in gross margins. Given the post-ER sell-off, I think it is fair to say that Nvidia failed to meet Mr. Market's lofty pre-ER expectations. In my earnings preview note, I expressed caution on NVDA:  Ahead of its upcoming Q2 FY2025 report, Nvidia Corporation stock is experiencing significant volatility. While a double beat is likely, the sustainability of Nvidia's rapid growth and high margins remains uncertain. Despite Nvidia's strong business performance and leadership in the burgeoning AI chips market, I maintain a \"Neutral/Hold\" rating due to valuation concerns and a troublesome technical setup. Source: \"Nvidia: You Have Been Pumped And Warned By The Cloud Hyperscaler Honchos.\"  And given the adverse market reaction to Nvidia's double-beat [plus solid Q3 guidance of $32.5B ($800M above consensus estimate) and announcement of a new $50B buyback program], my neutral stance seems justified. But let's dig deeper into the numbers! Nvidia Investor Relations In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's Data Center revenue increased to $26.27B (+154% y/y, +16% q/q) driven by strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPU computing platform, with sequential growth coming from consumer internet and enterprise companies. While Nvidia's Data Center revenues weren't going to grow at triple-digit rates forever, the sequential growth slowing down to 16% q/q points to marked deceleration ahead! Nvidia Investor Relations In addition to the obvious strength in the Data Center segment, Nvidia delivered strong results in its Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments. The +16% y/y growth in Gaming was a standout number, given poor performance in this space from its rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Now, at this point, Nvidia is undoubtedly a Data Center-centric business [~87% of total revenues], and so, a delayed production ramp for Blackwell due to changes in the Blackwell GPU mask threatened to introduce significant uncertainty into the semiconductor giant's otherwise rosy business outlook. However, according to Nvidia's CEO, Blackwell samples were shipped out in Q2, and the next-gen GPUs are on track for ramped-up production in the back half of FY2025. Here's what CEO Jensen Huang had to say in the Q2 FY25 release:  Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible. NVIDIA achieved record revenues as global data centers are in full throttle to modernize the entire computing stack with accelerated computing and generative AI. Blackwell samples are shipping to our partners and customers. Spectrum-X Ethernet for AI and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are two new product categories achieving significant scale, demonstrating that NVIDIA is a full-stack and data center-scale platform. Across the entire stack and ecosystem, we are helping frontier model makers to consumer internet services, and now enterprises. Generative AI will revolutionize every industry. - Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia.  Given the cyclicality associated with semiconductors and the fact that some of its largest customers - cloud hyperscalers - are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro] in the industry, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. While Nvidia Q2 revenue guidance of $32.5B exceeding street expectations of $31.7B is positive, the gross margin contraction seen in Q2 [non-GAAP gross margins: -320 bps q/q] is set to deepen to the low-70s in the back half of FY2025. Nvidia Investor Relations With its vast first-mover advantage in AI, Nvidia's hardware + CUDA software ecosystem is commanding tremendous pricing power. However, as I alluded to in \"Nvidia Q1 FY2025 Review: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance,\" Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. On the earnings call, Nvidia leadership said that the inventory crunch for its Hopper GPUs is easing. Did Huang & Co. just fumble the ball? Is Nvidia's current margin profile sustainable? Based on historical data for the semiconductor industry, I don't think so, but only time will reveal the truth. Now, in Q2 FY2025, Nvidia's quarterly operational cash flow rose to $14.5B (up $6.3B y/y), and quarterly free cash flow jumped to $13.5B (up $6.5B y/y) - however, both of these figures were down sequentially (on a q/q basis) due to higher cash taxes. Nvidia Investor Relations In recent quarters, I have insisted on Nvidia strengthening its balance sheet in preparation for a cyclical downturn:  While Nvidia's balance sheet is robust, I would personally like NVDA to raise some capital at current valuation to bolster its cash position and bring it in line with a level that resembles other $1.8T companies. The semiconductor industry is cyclical by nature, and I want Nvidia to have a massive cash hoard that can allow the company to keep growing through an industry downturn. Source: \"Nvidia's Q4 Report Is A Blowout: Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\"  Yes, Nvidia's cash and short-term investments have increased to $34.8B; however, the company aggressively returning its free cash flows back to shareholders at NVDA current valuation [~20x P/S] continues to perplex me. In Q2 FY2025, Nvidia returned $7.4B to shareholders via stock buybacks and dividends, and the semiconductor giant just announced a fresh addition of $50B to its buyback program. Given the historical cyclicality associated with semis, I still think that raising capital at a $3T+ market capitalization is a far better idea for Nvidia than returning capital to shareholders via buybacks at ~20x P/S [FY2025E]. Nvidia's Fair Value And Expected Returns In light of Nvidia's Q2 FY2025 report, I am sticking with my pre-earnings valuation model assumptions for the semiconductor giant: TQI Valuation Model TQIG.org (TQIG.org) On the back of a 6% post-ER dip in NVDA stock, the gap between Nvidia's stock price and our fair value estimate has narrowed; however, at $118 per share, NVDA remains significantly overvalued in my book. Assuming a base case exit multiple of 25x P/FCF, I see Nvidia rising to $165 per share by 2029. This price target translates to a 5-year expected CAGR return of ~7% from current levels. TQI Valuation Model (TQIG.org) While Nvidia's 5-year expected CAGR has improved from 5.34% to 6.99% in light of its post-ER dip, it continues to fall short of my investment hurdle rate (of 15%) and long-term market - S&P 500 (SP500) - returns (of 8%-10% per year). Hence, Nvidia is still not an attractive investment under our valuation process. Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q2 Earnings? In my view, Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious \"picks and shovels\" play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, and the long-term risk/reward doesn't justify the allocation of fresh capital right now. Due to unfavorable risk/reward and sheer lack of a margin of safety, I am going to stick to the sidelines on Nvidia Corporation stock. Earlier in the week, I laid out the following scenarios:  Technically, NVDA stock has regained short-term momentum ahead of earnings after re-claiming the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. However, the bounce in NVDA stock seems to be pausing at the key 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If we do see NVDA making a sustained push above $130, I think the ongoing bounce can extend to $140 and then to the $152-171 range. Nvidia Stock Chart 08/26/2024 (TrendSpider)On the flip side, given the ongoing rollover in momentum indicators - Weekly RSI and MACD - selling pressure could re-appear in upcoming sessions. A strong rejection from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could spark a deeper drawdown, which could send NVDA stock spiraling down to the $65-81 range marked on the chart below. Nvidia Stock Chart 08/26/2024 (TrendSpider)Source: \"Nvidia: You Have Been Pumped And Warned By The Cloud Hyperscaler Honchos.\"  Given the 5-6% drop in Nvidia Corporation stock post-earnings, I believe we are seeing a strong rejection from the key 78.6% Fibonacci level. If this sell-off sticks and picks up steam in the upcoming sessions, a deeper drawdown to the $65-81 range is a plausible outcome for the next 6-12 months. Key Takeaway: Considering Nvidia's long-term risk/reward and technicals, I continue to rate Nvidia Corporation stock \"Neutral/Hold\" at $118 per share.  Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":282105850052672,"gmtCreate":1709899440548,"gmtModify":1709899444284,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too much diversification is also not good …. Find a few good ones and bet on them but have an exit strategy for every bet!","listText":"Too much diversification is also not good …. Find a few good ones and bet on them but have an exit strategy for every bet!","text":"Too much diversification is also not good …. Find a few good ones and bet on them but have an exit strategy for every bet!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/282105850052672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276806035935512,"gmtCreate":1708605723585,"gmtModify":1708605727201,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"800","listText":"800","text":"800","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276806035935512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276504407638040,"gmtCreate":1708536285485,"gmtModify":1708536289702,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276504407638040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276257066115192,"gmtCreate":1708475866221,"gmtModify":1708475872360,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Bullish Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","listText":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Bullish Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Bullish Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276257066115192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276256695300288,"gmtCreate":1708475791269,"gmtModify":1708475794845,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers.&nbsp; Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers.&nbsp; Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Nvidia has an unchallenged position in the AI chip market as of now and that seems only one part of the story. on the other hand Nvidia hasnt even flexed its muscles fully yet in terms of what more they have in store to keep them ahead in the AI field including the new areas that its targetting and cementing partnerships w their largest customers. Nvidia's overall business seems pretty Well rounded as well. So i dont know what can stop a further Nvidia rally!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276256695300288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273080267317496,"gmtCreate":1707707781251,"gmtModify":1707707783540,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273080267317496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945276292,"gmtCreate":1681494844716,"gmtModify":1681494848526,"author":{"id":"4136364888237692","authorId":"4136364888237692","name":"AB10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b57b3d475275eff6399e1004bb99f3f4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136364888237692","authorIdStr":"4136364888237692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why only 2 redemptions?","listText":"Why only 2 redemptions?","text":"Why only 2 redemptions?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945276292","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}