Fed announced to increase 25 bps after March FOMC meetin. Before we talk about the comments of the intitutions, let's look at the basic facts.I. Basic facts1. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, and its Fed Fund rate expectation (dot plot) is a bit more hawkish compared with the December FOMC last year:the median benchmark rate expectation is 5.1% at the end of 2023, the same as the December FOMC;the median benchmark rate expectation is 4.3% at the end of 2024, higher than the December FOMC's 4.1%.Source: BloombergHowever, the market clearly does not agree with Fed's hawkish stance. Both Fed rate futures and the OIS are pricing in the Fed cutting rates to around 4% by the end of this y

At the June FOMC meeting, Fed unsurprisingly paused the rate hikes. However, Fed Chairman Powell stated during the subsequent press conference, “This pause does not imply that the benchmark interest rate has reached its peak.” The dot plot released at the same time indicated that FOMC members anticipate two additional rate hikes totaling 50 bps by the end of this year.Strangely, the market seemed unfazed by such hawkish remarks, and US stocks only experienced a slight decline on that day. Looking at the Fed Fund Futures traded in the market, the expected benchmark interest rate for December not only failed to surpass previous highs but also remained significantly lower than the median of 5.625% indicated in the Fed's dot plot.Source: BloombergSo, is the benchmark interest rate indicated by

The saying "Sell in May and Go Away" is a well-known phrase in the US stock market, which implies that the performance of the US stock market from November to April, during the half-year period, tends to be better than the performance from May to October during the other half-year period. Some people attribute this calendar effect to the impact of the mid-April deadline for US individual income tax filing, while others believe it is because most fund managers tend to be more aggressive in investing at year-end and year-beginning, and prefer to take vacations during the middle of the year. So, is this saying really true? Let's look at the objective data.1. Is the "Sell in May" true in US stock market? The chart below shows historical data from nearly 40 years (1985-2022) of the three major

With the end of the year approaching, major institutions begin to provide outlook for US stock market in 2024.According to some reports released so far, most institutions are slightly more optimistic this year compared with the widespread concerns last year.We have selected three outlook reports from David J. Kostin team of Goldman Sachs, Michael J Wilson team of Morgan Stanley and the Mark Haefele team of UBS.Let’s look at their forecasts for the US stock next year, as well as their analyses and judgment on important issues and directions.Forecasts for S&P 500; Chart made by Tiger_Insights1. Up or down? US stocks growth forecast for 2024It is difficult to accurately predict the rising/falling points of US stocks next year. It is common for institutions to be "prove

$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ went bankrupt, and the European and American banking sectors have been shaken, causing a significant shift in recent market narratives.As shown in the following chart, the expected peak of the Fed's interest rate hike has risen from 5.5% to nearly 5.7%, then dropped to around 4.8% as of the close on March 15, meaning that there is at most one more interest rate hike left in this cycle.The expected level of the US benchmark interest rate in January next year has also undergone the same ups and downs. As of the close on March 15, it has been priced by Fed rate futures traders to decrease by four times compared to the peak interest rate hike.Therefore, although Fed officials have not yet made a clear statem

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers U.S. Inflation Cools Surprisingly, Market Worries Ease Slightly, but Trading Opportunities Remain. Last week, the December U.S. inflation data was released, showing a slight cooling compared to the previously robust economic data. Specifically, the nominal CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, higher than the prior reading but within expectations. The main driver of this increase was energy prices, influenced by short-term volatility and lacking long-term persistence. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Meanwhile, core CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding the prior reading but slightly below expectations. Within core CPI, core goods continued to cool, while core services remained relatively resilient, especially the ho

Entering May, the most dazzling narrative in the global market belongs to $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , the leader in AI computing power, with its stellar financial report. The day after the financial report, its market cap exceeding one trillion.Influenced by NVIDIA's strong financial report, the soap opera of the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and the increased probability of a rate hike in the June FOMC meeting, along with other negative market news, were all set aside. The tech stocks in the U.S. stock market experienced the "melt up" that we anticipated in our Market Review| Rate Hike Pause, Stagflation Continues, Cherish the Good Times Before Recession in early May. However, global as

For a long time, US Treasuries have been widely regarded as the world's safest "risk-free assets" because the United States, as the world's strongest country, has never defaulted on its debt.However, on January 19th of this year, the US government's debt had already reached the statutory limit of $31.38 trillion, which means that the US Treasury Department will not be able to continue issuing Treasury bonds until Congress passes relevant legislation to raise the debt ceiling.Without external assistance, the US Treasury Department has been forced to use its Treasury General Account and cut or suspend unnecessary expenses. In addition, the high Treasury yields have further increased the interest expenses for the US government. This combination of factors has made the US Treasury Department i

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity assets showed lackluster performance overall. Greater China stocks experienced a notable pullback, with the Hang Seng Tech Index—previously the strongest performer—dropping over 4%. The CSI 300, Shanghai Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index also saw significant declines. In contrast, U.S. stocks temporarily stabilized and remained volatile, ultimately closing slightly higher for the week. Year-to-date, Greater China, Europe, and other non-U.S. markets have significantly outperformed U.S. equities. Key Market Themes FOMC Review: Slower Balance Sheet Reduction Can’t Mask Stagflation Risks, Feigned Calm Won’t Alleviate Macro Concerns Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting proceeded as expected, with most a