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2023-07-20

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@Value_investing:Will the China-U.S. Chip War ease?

2023-07-20

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@Twelve_E:Earnings Season Kicking Into High Gear: Banks, TSLA, NFLX

2023-07-20

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@Capital_Insights:Brett Eversole: New Highs Are Coming in 2023

2023-06-14

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Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come

2023-05-03

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2023-04-21

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Top Calls on Wall Street: Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Sea, Grab and More

2023-04-21

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Day Traders Lose $358,000 Per Day Gambling on Zero-Day Options

2023-04-14

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199732899168368","repostId":"199330782564528","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":199330782564528,"gmtCreate":1689692099224,"gmtModify":1689771553233,"author":{"id":"3527667626267411","authorId":"3527667626267411","name":"Value_investing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667626267411","idStr":"3527667626267411"},"themes":[],"title":"Will the China-U.S. Chip War ease?","htmlText":"According to a Reuters report, executives from chip giants such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> met with the Biden administration on their policies toward China on the 17th. The insiders revealed that these executives opposed tightening export controls on chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. It is reported that Washington plans to announce new rules within a few weeks.Prior to this, there were media reports that the Netherlands and the United States were pressuring ASML <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$</a> to prohibit the sale of DUV lithography machines to China without Washington's approval, and even to provide maintenance, repair services and supply spare parts for restricted","listText":"According to a Reuters report, executives from chip giants such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> met with the Biden administration on their policies toward China on the 17th. The insiders revealed that these executives opposed tightening export controls on chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. It is reported that Washington plans to announce new rules within a few weeks.Prior to this, there were media reports that the Netherlands and the United States were pressuring ASML <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$</a> to prohibit the sale of DUV lithography machines to China without Washington's approval, and even to provide maintenance, repair services and supply spare parts for restricted","text":"According to a Reuters report, executives from chip giants such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ met with the Biden administration on their policies toward China on the 17th. The insiders revealed that these executives opposed tightening export controls on chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. It is reported that Washington plans to announce new rules within a few weeks.Prior to this, there were media reports that the Netherlands and the United States were pressuring ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ to prohibit the sale of DUV lithography machines to China without Washington's approval, and even to provide maintenance, repair services and supply spare parts for restricted","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2271347258551fa56a30b0ffec0ee750","width":"865","height":"422"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b7b376a6dada0f76c9ca19388a4800f","width":"866","height":"496"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/960540cf1d2c5ca8817321492ec6e939","width":"855","height":"392"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199330782564528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199732862976112,"gmtCreate":1689804710776,"gmtModify":1689804713797,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136549092423332","idStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199732862976112","repostId":"199293705744400","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":199293705744400,"gmtCreate":1689682865497,"gmtModify":1689682928466,"author":{"id":"4100909900193040","authorId":"4100909900193040","name":"Twelve_E","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe7691e5de91fdc66dd91dd80b1207c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100909900193040","idStr":"4100909900193040"},"themes":[],"title":"Earnings Season Kicking Into High Gear: Banks, TSLA, NFLX","htmlText":"On top of strong earnings reports from <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WFC\">$Wells Fargo(WFC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DAL\">$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$</a> and positive economic data from last week，US stocks rose. While judging from the results of financial stocks on last Friday, the results were mixed.Positive: Large institutions such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WFC\">$Wells Fargo(WFC)$</a> benefited from the boost in consumer business, and their performance exceeded analyst expectations. Among them, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> Chase reported a 67% increase in second-quarter profit and see stock price hi","listText":"On top of strong earnings reports from <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WFC\">$Wells Fargo(WFC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DAL\">$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$</a> and positive economic data from last week，US stocks rose. While judging from the results of financial stocks on last Friday, the results were mixed.Positive: Large institutions such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WFC\">$Wells Fargo(WFC)$</a> benefited from the boost in consumer business, and their performance exceeded analyst expectations. Among them, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> Chase reported a 67% increase in second-quarter profit and see stock price hi","text":"On top of strong earnings reports from $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ , $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ and positive economic data from last week，US stocks rose. While judging from the results of financial stocks on last Friday, the results were mixed.Positive: Large institutions such as $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ benefited from the boost in consumer business, and their performance exceeded analyst expectations. Among them, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ Chase reported a 67% increase in second-quarter profit and see stock price hi","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fbe9ba57f93a5d77e6c6391a6ccebcd7","width":"1760","height":"725"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c92454b213077aaa2bea656d4bcb0a2f","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf311930b4c48035ba60d4c371b4cad1","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199293705744400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199732781473920,"gmtCreate":1689804700413,"gmtModify":1689804704751,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136549092423332","idStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199732781473920","repostId":"199297921343664","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":199297921343664,"gmtCreate":1689684076465,"gmtModify":1689684193590,"author":{"id":"3527667668165440","authorId":"3527667668165440","name":"Capital_Insights","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfdc66fff48bb2b9e2d328ac5eb33100","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668165440","idStr":"3527667668165440"},"themes":[],"title":"Brett Eversole: New Highs Are Coming in 2023","htmlText":"Brett Eversole from Stansberry ResearchThe first half of 2023 surprised just about everyone...We saw worries of a recession hold steady... a handful of the largest bank failures in U.S. history... and a Federal Reserve that kept hiking interest rates.Despite all those headwinds, U.S. stocks have soared. The <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> Index was up 17% in the first half of the year. And we've only seen one other first half with gains of that level since 1998.What's interesting, though, is that this strong performance hasn't made most investors giddy. They're still worried about the dark clouds on the horizon. But according to history, they shouldn't be overly bearish for long.That's because the<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"Brett Eversole from Stansberry ResearchThe first half of 2023 surprised just about everyone...We saw worries of a recession hold steady... a handful of the largest bank failures in U.S. history... and a Federal Reserve that kept hiking interest rates.Despite all those headwinds, U.S. stocks have soared. The <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> Index was up 17% in the first half of the year. And we've only seen one other first half with gains of that level since 1998.What's interesting, though, is that this strong performance hasn't made most investors giddy. They're still worried about the dark clouds on the horizon. But according to history, they shouldn't be overly bearish for long.That's because the<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"Brett Eversole from Stansberry ResearchThe first half of 2023 surprised just about everyone...We saw worries of a recession hold steady... a handful of the largest bank failures in U.S. history... and a Federal Reserve that kept hiking interest rates.Despite all those headwinds, U.S. stocks have soared. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Index was up 17% in the first half of the year. And we've only seen one other first half with gains of that level since 1998.What's interesting, though, is that this strong performance hasn't made most investors giddy. They're still worried about the dark clouds on the horizon. But according to history, they shouldn't be overly bearish for long.That's because the$S&P 500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/90895671a0586bf714190d8f8945e187","width":"500","height":"500"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8872810ffa79278b23a505c67f0dad35","width":"510","height":"325"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1f4e6fc6fae989566e09cd29e579f675","width":"387","height":"104"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199297921343664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187119787880464,"gmtCreate":1686723081898,"gmtModify":1686723086881,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136549092423332","idStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187119787880464","repostId":"2343567514","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2343567514","pubTimestamp":1686704403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2343567514?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-14 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2343567514","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Douglas Rissing The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the Fed to revise its summary of economic projections to show a higher inflation outlook and more rate hikes on the dot plot.</p><p>This means that yields across the curve are likely to stay elevated and move higher in the months ahead at a time when liquidity is now being withdrawn from the overall market and equities are dangerously overvalued.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2120bacd7ae744d7a9b26b91f6d1a51d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2>More Rate Hikes</h2><p>The market is not predicting a June rate hike, with the odds at just 10% as of this writing, and it seems unlikely that Fed will try and surprise the market, given its history. But Fed Fund futures are pricing a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike by July. With the next FOMC meeting coming at the end of July, the Fed will have more data to assess its projected rate path. However, given the hotter core CPI and searing labor market reports, it will probably mean that the dot plot will reflect another rate hike or two in 2023.</p><p>The reason is that core inflation is expected to remain sticky, and the Cleveland Fed estimates Core CPI for June at 5.1%. This means the chance the Fed is done raising rates seems slim at this point, and that will likely be reflected in the dot plots when the Summary of Economic Projections comes out.</p><p>Additionally, headline CPI on a non-seasonal adjusted basis rose by 0.3% in May. That has inflation rising at a 4.4% annualized rate of change over the past three and six months. This does suggest that it may be challenging to get inflation down now that it is entering this 3% to 4% range. It&#39;s important to remember that CPI on a year over year is measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and using a seasonally adjusted CPI metric to annualize the rate of change may understate actual inflation due to changes in seasonal adjustments, which happened in 2022.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538b5d9f6f2e8956f767d8f53d71b8c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This is why bond yields aren&#39;t coming down and are rising following the CPI report. Especially when looking at the back of the curve, as markets price in a higher for longer monetary policy from the Fed, with the 30-year rate rising back to 3.92%. But more importantly, real rates are pushing higher, with the 10-Yr TIP rate now trading at 1.58% and approaching that critical level of resistance that could lead to a big break out and push to new highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14a0538cce121027cd003790fb61875\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The 10-yr TIP is a critical rate to follow because assets such as long duration growth are priced using real rates, with the Nasdaq 100 being key. The spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the 10-yr real yield is now at 1.93%, levels not seen since the mid-2000s, when the Nasdaq was in the middle of a valuation reset from the 2000 bubble. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 235 bps below the historical average of the last 10 years.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763a5b0d5b2b8c255726b71f988c02aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The other piece of the puzzle is that liquidity is now starting to be withdrawn from the Nasdaq 100 futures market, as measured by the depth of the book. The last time the depth of the book declined was back in August of 2022, which also marked a significant top in the market.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810669f93ed838683f831e50269496db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p>CME Group</p><p>The addition and withdrawal of liquidity in the Nasdaq futures market in August 2022 coincided with a move up and down reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve. Currently, reserve balances are likely to decline due to the refill of the Treasury General Account. Further, as we move into the quarter end, the reverse repo activity should begin to climb, leading to lower reserves.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc60fcb97695095105c1677befc4bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The path for inflation is sticky and will continue not to be smooth, and if the current rate of changes remains, headline inflation could very well begin to accelerate in the second half of 2023 as the base effects of the first half of 2022 wane. Translating into yields staying elevated and leaving stock particularly vulnerable as the equity risk premium gets dangerously narrow and liquidity is withdrawn from the market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-14 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2343567514","content_text":"The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the Fed to revise its summary of economic projections to show a higher inflation outlook and more rate hikes on the dot plot.This means that yields across the curve are likely to stay elevated and move higher in the months ahead at a time when liquidity is now being withdrawn from the overall market and equities are dangerously overvalued.BloombergMore Rate HikesThe market is not predicting a June rate hike, with the odds at just 10% as of this writing, and it seems unlikely that Fed will try and surprise the market, given its history. But Fed Fund futures are pricing a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike by July. With the next FOMC meeting coming at the end of July, the Fed will have more data to assess its projected rate path. However, given the hotter core CPI and searing labor market reports, it will probably mean that the dot plot will reflect another rate hike or two in 2023.The reason is that core inflation is expected to remain sticky, and the Cleveland Fed estimates Core CPI for June at 5.1%. This means the chance the Fed is done raising rates seems slim at this point, and that will likely be reflected in the dot plots when the Summary of Economic Projections comes out.Additionally, headline CPI on a non-seasonal adjusted basis rose by 0.3% in May. That has inflation rising at a 4.4% annualized rate of change over the past three and six months. This does suggest that it may be challenging to get inflation down now that it is entering this 3% to 4% range. It's important to remember that CPI on a year over year is measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and using a seasonally adjusted CPI metric to annualize the rate of change may understate actual inflation due to changes in seasonal adjustments, which happened in 2022.BloombergThis is why bond yields aren't coming down and are rising following the CPI report. Especially when looking at the back of the curve, as markets price in a higher for longer monetary policy from the Fed, with the 30-year rate rising back to 3.92%. But more importantly, real rates are pushing higher, with the 10-Yr TIP rate now trading at 1.58% and approaching that critical level of resistance that could lead to a big break out and push to new highs.BloombergThe 10-yr TIP is a critical rate to follow because assets such as long duration growth are priced using real rates, with the Nasdaq 100 being key. The spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the 10-yr real yield is now at 1.93%, levels not seen since the mid-2000s, when the Nasdaq was in the middle of a valuation reset from the 2000 bubble. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 235 bps below the historical average of the last 10 years.BloombergThe other piece of the puzzle is that liquidity is now starting to be withdrawn from the Nasdaq 100 futures market, as measured by the depth of the book. The last time the depth of the book declined was back in August of 2022, which also marked a significant top in the market.CME GroupThe addition and withdrawal of liquidity in the Nasdaq futures market in August 2022 coincided with a move up and down reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve. Currently, reserve balances are likely to decline due to the refill of the Treasury General Account. Further, as we move into the quarter end, the reverse repo activity should begin to climb, leading to lower reserves.BloombergThe path for inflation is sticky and will continue not to be smooth, and if the current rate of changes remains, headline inflation could very well begin to accelerate in the second half of 2023 as the base effects of the first half of 2022 wane. Translating into yields staying elevated and leaving stock particularly vulnerable as the equity risk premium gets dangerously narrow and liquidity is withdrawn from the market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947651065,"gmtCreate":1683102641458,"gmtModify":1683102695768,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136549092423332","idStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947651065","repostId":"2332969749","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944731719,"gmtCreate":1682091235932,"gmtModify":1682092139426,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136549092423332","idStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944731719","repostId":"1167652223","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167652223","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682091000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167652223?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-21 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top Calls on Wall Street: Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Sea, Grab and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167652223","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Friday:Truist downgrades Tesla to hold from buyTruist s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Friday:</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Truist downgrades Tesla to hold from buy</h2><p>Truist said in its downgrade of the stock that it was surprised by the company’s “willingness to accept lower margins.”</p><blockquote>“What surprised us is TSLA’s stated willingness to reduce price further, accepting still lower automotive margins, to broaden &amp; deepen its ability to generate revenue from AI projects, most notably FSD.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Wells Fargo reiterates Microsoft as overweight</h2><p>Wells says expectations are “mixed” heading into earnings next week, but that the firm is standing by the stock.</p><blockquote>“While optimizations and macro are likely to impact FQ3 results, we see favorable offsets forming beyond, inc. MSFT’s ability to both consolidate spend from incumbent categories (productivity, biz apps, security) &amp; gain share in newer ones.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Alphabet as buy</h2><p>Bank of America says it’s bullish heading into Alphabet earnings next week.</p><blockquote>“We think 1Q could show cost improvement upside, while in-line search results could be a modest positive for market share concerns (we think street will see better evidence of cost cutting and margin improvement by 2Q).”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as a best idea</h2><p>JPMorgan says it’s bullish heading into the e-commerce giant’s earnings report next week.</p><blockquote>“We’re modeling continued e-comm share gains in 2023 as AMZN &amp; other retailers gain share in key under-penetrated categories such as grocery, CPG, apparel &amp; accessories, &amp; furniture/appliances/equipment.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Benchmark initiates Sea Limited as buy</h2><p>Benchmark initiated the Singapore-based internet tech company with a buy and says it sees rapid growth ahead.</p><blockquote>“We believe that SE should remain a key beneficiary of Southeast Asia’s fast growing digital economy in years to come.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Benchmark initiates Grab Holdings as buy</h2><p>Benchmark said in its initiation of the Asian internet company that it’s a “significant market consolidator”</p><blockquote>“As part of our industry launch of Southeast Asia Ecommerce, we are initiating coverage of GRAB, a leading platform player offering mobility, delivery, fintech and enterprise services in SEA (Southeast Asia Ecommerce).”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Wells Fargo names Starbucks a top pick into earnings</h2><p>Wells says Starbucks is a “best idea” heading into earnings on May 2 and the “China inflection adds upside.”</p><blockquote>“Shares are -2% post-Q1 &amp; we see improving Q2 risk/reward behind ongoing domestic strength (positive Q2 traffic; Ex 29), a likely China inflection (vs. a very low Q2 bar) &amp; anticipated upside to the FY23 outlook.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Baird reiterates McDonald’s as outperform</h2><p>Baird says it’s bullish heading into earnings next week.</p><blockquote>“We see potential for Q1 comps/EPS to exceed estimates (perhaps already priced in?), and we continue to believe MCD can fuel solid operating momentum in the balance of 2023 despite possible economic headwinds.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Cantor Fitzgerald initiates UnitedHealth as buy</h2><p>Cantor said in its initiation of the healthcare company that it sees near-term earnings upside.</p><blockquote>“United is ahead of the market in using commercial product innovation to solve for the problem of employers wanting to hold price trends, while providers are looking for a three-year step-up from historical averages.”</blockquote><h2>Morgan Stanley reiterates Spotify as overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $160 per share from $130 and says “price increases, margin expansion, and market share” will drive the stock.</p><blockquote>“We continue to see streaming music &amp; audio as an attractive growth market and remain OW WMG and SPOT.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">HBSC upgrades AT&amp;T to buy from hold</h2><p>HSBC said in its upgrade of the stock after its earnings report that investors should buy the dip.</p><blockquote>“But a slowdown in market momentum has been widely flagged (by all operators) for months, and AT&amp;T’s absolute growth in mobile subs remained solid.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Stephens initiates SentinelOne as overweight</h2><p>Stephens initiated the cyber security company with an overweight and says it has “best-in-class growth.”</p><blockquote>“SentinelOne’s platform addresses many of the highest priority areas of security spending.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs reiterates ServiceNow as buy</h2><p>Goldman says it’s bullish heading into the work flow solutions company’s earnings report next week.</p><blockquote>“We expect investors to put more weight on NOW’s 1Q results, despite it being a seasonally weak quarter, as they look for signs of continued durability.</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Blackstone as overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley says the alternative investment management company is “resilient.”</p><blockquote>“We believe BX is best positioned to navigate the backdrop, capitalize on dislocation with $190b dry powder &amp; propel earnings power.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley downgrades Seagate to equal weight from overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said in its downgrade of Seagate that it sees a recovery pushout for the hard disc data drive company.</p><blockquote>“As a result, we believe path to outperformance has also been pushed out, with risk more elevated near term.”</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Calls on Wall Street: Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Sea, Grab and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Calls on Wall Street: Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Sea, Grab and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-21 23:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Friday:</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Truist downgrades Tesla to hold from buy</h2><p>Truist said in its downgrade of the stock that it was surprised by the company’s “willingness to accept lower margins.”</p><blockquote>“What surprised us is TSLA’s stated willingness to reduce price further, accepting still lower automotive margins, to broaden &amp; deepen its ability to generate revenue from AI projects, most notably FSD.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Wells Fargo reiterates Microsoft as overweight</h2><p>Wells says expectations are “mixed” heading into earnings next week, but that the firm is standing by the stock.</p><blockquote>“While optimizations and macro are likely to impact FQ3 results, we see favorable offsets forming beyond, inc. MSFT’s ability to both consolidate spend from incumbent categories (productivity, biz apps, security) &amp; gain share in newer ones.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Alphabet as buy</h2><p>Bank of America says it’s bullish heading into Alphabet earnings next week.</p><blockquote>“We think 1Q could show cost improvement upside, while in-line search results could be a modest positive for market share concerns (we think street will see better evidence of cost cutting and margin improvement by 2Q).”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as a best idea</h2><p>JPMorgan says it’s bullish heading into the e-commerce giant’s earnings report next week.</p><blockquote>“We’re modeling continued e-comm share gains in 2023 as AMZN &amp; other retailers gain share in key under-penetrated categories such as grocery, CPG, apparel &amp; accessories, &amp; furniture/appliances/equipment.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Benchmark initiates Sea Limited as buy</h2><p>Benchmark initiated the Singapore-based internet tech company with a buy and says it sees rapid growth ahead.</p><blockquote>“We believe that SE should remain a key beneficiary of Southeast Asia’s fast growing digital economy in years to come.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Benchmark initiates Grab Holdings as buy</h2><p>Benchmark said in its initiation of the Asian internet company that it’s a “significant market consolidator”</p><blockquote>“As part of our industry launch of Southeast Asia Ecommerce, we are initiating coverage of GRAB, a leading platform player offering mobility, delivery, fintech and enterprise services in SEA (Southeast Asia Ecommerce).”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Wells Fargo names Starbucks a top pick into earnings</h2><p>Wells says Starbucks is a “best idea” heading into earnings on May 2 and the “China inflection adds upside.”</p><blockquote>“Shares are -2% post-Q1 &amp; we see improving Q2 risk/reward behind ongoing domestic strength (positive Q2 traffic; Ex 29), a likely China inflection (vs. a very low Q2 bar) &amp; anticipated upside to the FY23 outlook.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Baird reiterates McDonald’s as outperform</h2><p>Baird says it’s bullish heading into earnings next week.</p><blockquote>“We see potential for Q1 comps/EPS to exceed estimates (perhaps already priced in?), and we continue to believe MCD can fuel solid operating momentum in the balance of 2023 despite possible economic headwinds.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Cantor Fitzgerald initiates UnitedHealth as buy</h2><p>Cantor said in its initiation of the healthcare company that it sees near-term earnings upside.</p><blockquote>“United is ahead of the market in using commercial product innovation to solve for the problem of employers wanting to hold price trends, while providers are looking for a three-year step-up from historical averages.”</blockquote><h2>Morgan Stanley reiterates Spotify as overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $160 per share from $130 and says “price increases, margin expansion, and market share” will drive the stock.</p><blockquote>“We continue to see streaming music &amp; audio as an attractive growth market and remain OW WMG and SPOT.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">HBSC upgrades AT&amp;T to buy from hold</h2><p>HSBC said in its upgrade of the stock after its earnings report that investors should buy the dip.</p><blockquote>“But a slowdown in market momentum has been widely flagged (by all operators) for months, and AT&amp;T’s absolute growth in mobile subs remained solid.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Stephens initiates SentinelOne as overweight</h2><p>Stephens initiated the cyber security company with an overweight and says it has “best-in-class growth.”</p><blockquote>“SentinelOne’s platform addresses many of the highest priority areas of security spending.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs reiterates ServiceNow as buy</h2><p>Goldman says it’s bullish heading into the work flow solutions company’s earnings report next week.</p><blockquote>“We expect investors to put more weight on NOW’s 1Q results, despite it being a seasonally weak quarter, as they look for signs of continued durability.</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Blackstone as overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley says the alternative investment management company is “resilient.”</p><blockquote>“We believe BX is best positioned to navigate the backdrop, capitalize on dislocation with $190b dry powder &amp; propel earnings power.”</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley downgrades Seagate to equal weight from overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said in its downgrade of Seagate that it sees a recovery pushout for the hard disc data drive company.</p><blockquote>“As a result, we believe path to outperformance has also been pushed out, with risk more elevated near term.”</blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings","S":"SentinelOne, Inc","BX":"黑石","T":"美国电话电报","GOOGL":"谷歌A","UNH":"联合健康","SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A.","MCD":"麦当劳","SBUX":"星巴克","SE":"Sea Ltd","NOW":"ServiceNow","MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊","STX":"希捷科技","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167652223","content_text":"Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Friday:Truist downgrades Tesla to hold from buyTruist said in its downgrade of the stock that it was surprised by the company’s “willingness to accept lower margins.”“What surprised us is TSLA’s stated willingness to reduce price further, accepting still lower automotive margins, to broaden & deepen its ability to generate revenue from AI projects, most notably FSD.”Wells Fargo reiterates Microsoft as overweightWells says expectations are “mixed” heading into earnings next week, but that the firm is standing by the stock.“While optimizations and macro are likely to impact FQ3 results, we see favorable offsets forming beyond, inc. MSFT’s ability to both consolidate spend from incumbent categories (productivity, biz apps, security) & gain share in newer ones.”Bank of America reiterates Alphabet as buyBank of America says it’s bullish heading into Alphabet earnings next week.“We think 1Q could show cost improvement upside, while in-line search results could be a modest positive for market share concerns (we think street will see better evidence of cost cutting and margin improvement by 2Q).”JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as a best ideaJPMorgan says it’s bullish heading into the e-commerce giant’s earnings report next week.“We’re modeling continued e-comm share gains in 2023 as AMZN & other retailers gain share in key under-penetrated categories such as grocery, CPG, apparel & accessories, & furniture/appliances/equipment.”Benchmark initiates Sea Limited as buyBenchmark initiated the Singapore-based internet tech company with a buy and says it sees rapid growth ahead.“We believe that SE should remain a key beneficiary of Southeast Asia’s fast growing digital economy in years to come.”Benchmark initiates Grab Holdings as buyBenchmark said in its initiation of the Asian internet company that it’s a “significant market consolidator”“As part of our industry launch of Southeast Asia Ecommerce, we are initiating coverage of GRAB, a leading platform player offering mobility, delivery, fintech and enterprise services in SEA (Southeast Asia Ecommerce).”Wells Fargo names Starbucks a top pick into earningsWells says Starbucks is a “best idea” heading into earnings on May 2 and the “China inflection adds upside.”“Shares are -2% post-Q1 & we see improving Q2 risk/reward behind ongoing domestic strength (positive Q2 traffic; Ex 29), a likely China inflection (vs. a very low Q2 bar) & anticipated upside to the FY23 outlook.”Baird reiterates McDonald’s as outperformBaird says it’s bullish heading into earnings next week.“We see potential for Q1 comps/EPS to exceed estimates (perhaps already priced in?), and we continue to believe MCD can fuel solid operating momentum in the balance of 2023 despite possible economic headwinds.”Cantor Fitzgerald initiates UnitedHealth as buyCantor said in its initiation of the healthcare company that it sees near-term earnings upside.“United is ahead of the market in using commercial product innovation to solve for the problem of employers wanting to hold price trends, while providers are looking for a three-year step-up from historical averages.”Morgan Stanley reiterates Spotify as overweightMorgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $160 per share from $130 and says “price increases, margin expansion, and market share” will drive the stock.“We continue to see streaming music & audio as an attractive growth market and remain OW WMG and SPOT.”HBSC upgrades AT&T to buy from holdHSBC said in its upgrade of the stock after its earnings report that investors should buy the dip.“But a slowdown in market momentum has been widely flagged (by all operators) for months, and AT&T’s absolute growth in mobile subs remained solid.”Stephens initiates SentinelOne as overweightStephens initiated the cyber security company with an overweight and says it has “best-in-class growth.”“SentinelOne’s platform addresses many of the highest priority areas of security spending.”Goldman Sachs reiterates ServiceNow as buyGoldman says it’s bullish heading into the work flow solutions company’s earnings report next week.“We expect investors to put more weight on NOW’s 1Q results, despite it being a seasonally weak quarter, as they look for signs of continued durability.Morgan Stanley reiterates Blackstone as overweightMorgan Stanley says the alternative investment management company is “resilient.”“We believe BX is best positioned to navigate the backdrop, capitalize on dislocation with $190b dry powder & propel earnings power.”Morgan Stanley downgrades Seagate to equal weight from overweightMorgan Stanley said in its downgrade of Seagate that it sees a recovery pushout for the hard disc data drive company.“As a result, we believe path to outperformance has also been pushed out, with risk more elevated near term.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944739826,"gmtCreate":1682088659265,"gmtModify":1682090387136,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136549092423332","idStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944739826","repostId":"2329008911","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2329008911","pubTimestamp":1682088000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2329008911?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-21 22:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Day Traders Lose $358,000 Per Day Gambling on Zero-Day Options","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2329008911","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"New study tallies retail’s misfortune during the trading boomResearchers warn about growing risk sho","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>New study tallies retail’s misfortune during the trading boom</p></li><li><p>Researchers warn about growing risk should 0DTE broaden out</p></li></ul><p>Day traders are paying a price for their newfound love affair with one of the hottest trades in the equity market. </p><p>Rushing to join the trading frenzy in options with ultra-short lifespans, known as 0DTE for zero-days to expiration, small-time investors find themselves struggling to make it work. A fresh study from researchers at the University of Muenster in Germany shows the crowd may have lost $358,000 a day since May 2022, when it became possible to trade expiring contracts every day. </p><p>The record is alarming, but probably not a huge surprise. By one estimate, amateur investors took a billion-dollar bath dabbling in stock options during the pandemic boom. The new game of 0DTE is more challenging in many ways, among them the tight timeframe in which wagers need to work out. </p><p>The paper, titled Retail Traders Love 0DTE Options... But Should They?, is a reminder to investors and regulators alike that the latest investment innovations may not always be suitable for everyone. </p><p>“We are seeing the study as a cautionary tale,” Heiner Beckmeyer, who co-authored the study along with Nicole Branger and Leander Gayda, said in an interview. “These 0DTE options have huge leverage. They’re a one-or-zero bet, so you have the opportunity to make a lot of money, but you also have the opportunity to lose a lot. And that’s what we find in the paper that on average, it seems to be to the detriment of these retail investors.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3af0d64d4e37ada72f8b532dd95fa17\" alt=\"Source: “Retail Traders Love 0DTE Options... But Should They?” by Heiner Beckmeyer, Nicole Branger and Leander Gayda\" title=\"Source: “Retail Traders Love 0DTE Options... But Should They?” by Heiner Beckmeyer, Nicole Branger and Leander Gayda\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"471\"/><span>Source: “Retail Traders Love 0DTE Options... But Should They?” by Heiner Beckmeyer, Nicole Branger and Leander Gayda</span></p><p>Zero-day options first garnered mainstream attention when retail investors embraced them as a cheap way of gambling during the meme-stock era in 2021. While the current craze involves indexes like the S&amp;P 500 and has been driven by professional traders, 0DTE’s high-risk, high-reward potential — and potentially quick payoff — appeals profoundly to amateurs too. </p><p>By the researchers’ estimate, the retail crowd’s market share in 0DTE trading volume has expanded, topping 6% in 2022 versus 4% in the prior year. Among all of the cohort’s trades in S&amp;P 500 options, such flashy contracts make up more than 75% of the total. </p><p>For all the engagement, however, the wagers largely failed to pay off. </p><p>While they did fairly well writing options, decisions to buy them suffered badly. All told, day traders lost $20 million as a result of poor positioning in about two years through February 2023. The bill climbed to more than $70 million when the cost of doing business with market makers was factored in. </p><p>To be sure, it’s not easy to make money in a new instrument that even Wall Street pros don’t seem to fully understand. To have an edge, one has to be extremely vigilant and nimble — and probably lucky. </p><p>A JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. analysis showed that while buying or selling 0DTE options tended to be profitable in the first 10 minutes of trading, two-thirds of the gains came in the first minute. </p><p>In the study by the University of Muenster researchers, they tracked all 0DTE transactions that were identified as being initiated by retail, netted them out as orders came in, and tallied a return at the end of each day.  </p><p>They found the day-trader army has lost money on a net basis every month since Cboe Global Markets Inc. added Tuesday and Thursday expiration options for the S&amp;P 500, expanding existing products to cover each weekday.</p><p>“Their hunger for lottery-like assets leads to large aggregate losses,” the researchers wrote in the paper. “Should daily expirations be rolled out for single equity options, the potential losses retail investors face are amplified manifold.”</p><p>Cboe didn’t respond to a request for comment. </p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Day Traders Lose $358,000 Per Day Gambling on Zero-Day Options</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDay Traders Lose $358,000 Per Day Gambling on Zero-Day Options\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-21 22:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-21/day-traders-lose-358-000-per-day-gambling-on-zero-day-options?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New study tallies retail’s misfortune during the trading boomResearchers warn about growing risk should 0DTE broaden outDay traders are paying a price for their newfound love affair with one of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-21/day-traders-lose-358-000-per-day-gambling-on-zero-day-options?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","CBOE":"芝加哥期权交易所"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-21/day-traders-lose-358-000-per-day-gambling-on-zero-day-options?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2329008911","content_text":"New study tallies retail’s misfortune during the trading boomResearchers warn about growing risk should 0DTE broaden outDay traders are paying a price for their newfound love affair with one of the hottest trades in the equity market. Rushing to join the trading frenzy in options with ultra-short lifespans, known as 0DTE for zero-days to expiration, small-time investors find themselves struggling to make it work. A fresh study from researchers at the University of Muenster in Germany shows the crowd may have lost $358,000 a day since May 2022, when it became possible to trade expiring contracts every day. The record is alarming, but probably not a huge surprise. By one estimate, amateur investors took a billion-dollar bath dabbling in stock options during the pandemic boom. The new game of 0DTE is more challenging in many ways, among them the tight timeframe in which wagers need to work out. The paper, titled Retail Traders Love 0DTE Options... But Should They?, is a reminder to investors and regulators alike that the latest investment innovations may not always be suitable for everyone. “We are seeing the study as a cautionary tale,” Heiner Beckmeyer, who co-authored the study along with Nicole Branger and Leander Gayda, said in an interview. “These 0DTE options have huge leverage. They’re a one-or-zero bet, so you have the opportunity to make a lot of money, but you also have the opportunity to lose a lot. And that’s what we find in the paper that on average, it seems to be to the detriment of these retail investors.”Source: “Retail Traders Love 0DTE Options... But Should They?” by Heiner Beckmeyer, Nicole Branger and Leander GaydaZero-day options first garnered mainstream attention when retail investors embraced them as a cheap way of gambling during the meme-stock era in 2021. While the current craze involves indexes like the S&P 500 and has been driven by professional traders, 0DTE’s high-risk, high-reward potential — and potentially quick payoff — appeals profoundly to amateurs too. By the researchers’ estimate, the retail crowd’s market share in 0DTE trading volume has expanded, topping 6% in 2022 versus 4% in the prior year. Among all of the cohort’s trades in S&P 500 options, such flashy contracts make up more than 75% of the total. For all the engagement, however, the wagers largely failed to pay off. While they did fairly well writing options, decisions to buy them suffered badly. All told, day traders lost $20 million as a result of poor positioning in about two years through February 2023. The bill climbed to more than $70 million when the cost of doing business with market makers was factored in. To be sure, it’s not easy to make money in a new instrument that even Wall Street pros don’t seem to fully understand. To have an edge, one has to be extremely vigilant and nimble — and probably lucky. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysis showed that while buying or selling 0DTE options tended to be profitable in the first 10 minutes of trading, two-thirds of the gains came in the first minute. In the study by the University of Muenster researchers, they tracked all 0DTE transactions that were identified as being initiated by retail, netted them out as orders came in, and tallied a return at the end of each day.  They found the day-trader army has lost money on a net basis every month since Cboe Global Markets Inc. added Tuesday and Thursday expiration options for the S&P 500, expanding existing products to cover each weekday.“Their hunger for lottery-like assets leads to large aggregate losses,” the researchers wrote in the paper. “Should daily expirations be rolled out for single equity options, the potential losses retail investors face are amplified manifold.”Cboe didn’t respond to a request for comment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945206530,"gmtCreate":1681476273621,"gmtModify":1681478534526,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136549092423332","idStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945206530","repostId":"1125131358","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9945206530,"gmtCreate":1681476273621,"gmtModify":1681478534526,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136549092423332","authorIdStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945206530","repostId":"1125131358","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125131358","pubTimestamp":1681475947,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125131358?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-14 20:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Retail Sales Tumble in March in a Sign of Softening U.S. Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125131358","media":"Market Watch","summary":"The numbers: Sales at retailers dropped 1% in March and declined for the fourth time in the past fiv","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>The numbers:</strong> Sales at retailers dropped 1% in March and declined for the fourth time in the past five months, reflecting a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a shift in consumer-spending habits.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending and offer clues about the strength of the economy. Sales had been forecast to drop 0.4%, based on a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.</p><p>Receipts shrank a smaller 0.3% if auto dealers and gas stations are excluded. Car and gasoline purchases exaggerate overall retail spending.</p><p><strong>Key details:</strong> Sales in March posted the biggest decline in four months, largely because of lower auto and gasoline sales.</p><p>A late Easter might have also shifted some sales into April that normally would have taken place in March, economists say.</p><p>Sales of new vehicles and parts, an up-and-down category, fell a sharp 1.6% last month.</p><p>Receipts at gas stations declined 5.5% largely because of lower oil prices. Americans are likely to pay more for gas in April, however, after the oil cartel OPEC cut production and prices surged.</p><p>Even after setting aside car dealers and gas stations, retail sales were weak. Sales fell in most major categories, including home centers, electronics stores and department stores.</p><p>The only segment to stand out: Internet retailers. Sales jumped 1.9%.</p><p>One category economists watch closely is bars and restaurants, the only service sector in the retail report. Restaurant receipts rose a tepid 0.1% last month after a 1.6% decline in February.</p><p>Restaurant sales tend to rise when the economy is healthy and Americans feel secure in their jobs. Sales slack off during times of economic distress.</p><p><strong>Big picture:</strong> Retail sales haven’t fallen off a cliff, but they also aren’t rising rapidly like they did in 2021 and early 2022.</p><p>How come? High inflation has eaten away at household incomes. Government pandemic stimulus has dried up. And rising interest rates have made purchases of big-ticket items such as cars more expensive.</p><p>Americans are still spending plenty to get out and about, however.</p><p>Americans have been spending more on services such as travel, hospitality and recreation and less on goods such as consumer electronics and home-office supplies. That’s a big reversal of what happened during the pandemic.</p><p>That’s helping to keep the economy afloat. If the economy continues to slow, however, spending on services could also go slack.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail Sales Tumble in March in a Sign of Softening U.S. Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail Sales Tumble in March in a Sign of Softening U.S. Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-14 20:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-tumble-in-march-in-a-sign-of-softening-u-s-economy-b9d35c44?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>Market Watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The numbers: Sales at retailers dropped 1% in March and declined for the fourth time in the past five months, reflecting a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a shift in consumer-spending habits.Retail ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-tumble-in-march-in-a-sign-of-softening-u-s-economy-b9d35c44?mod=mw_latestnews\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-tumble-in-march-in-a-sign-of-softening-u-s-economy-b9d35c44?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125131358","content_text":"The numbers: Sales at retailers dropped 1% in March and declined for the fourth time in the past five months, reflecting a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a shift in consumer-spending habits.Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending and offer clues about the strength of the economy. Sales had been forecast to drop 0.4%, based on a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.Receipts shrank a smaller 0.3% if auto dealers and gas stations are excluded. Car and gasoline purchases exaggerate overall retail spending.Key details: Sales in March posted the biggest decline in four months, largely because of lower auto and gasoline sales.A late Easter might have also shifted some sales into April that normally would have taken place in March, economists say.Sales of new vehicles and parts, an up-and-down category, fell a sharp 1.6% last month.Receipts at gas stations declined 5.5% largely because of lower oil prices. Americans are likely to pay more for gas in April, however, after the oil cartel OPEC cut production and prices surged.Even after setting aside car dealers and gas stations, retail sales were weak. Sales fell in most major categories, including home centers, electronics stores and department stores.The only segment to stand out: Internet retailers. Sales jumped 1.9%.One category economists watch closely is bars and restaurants, the only service sector in the retail report. Restaurant receipts rose a tepid 0.1% last month after a 1.6% decline in February.Restaurant sales tend to rise when the economy is healthy and Americans feel secure in their jobs. Sales slack off during times of economic distress.Big picture: Retail sales haven’t fallen off a cliff, but they also aren’t rising rapidly like they did in 2021 and early 2022.How come? High inflation has eaten away at household incomes. Government pandemic stimulus has dried up. And rising interest rates have made purchases of big-ticket items such as cars more expensive.Americans are still spending plenty to get out and about, however.Americans have been spending more on services such as travel, hospitality and recreation and less on goods such as consumer electronics and home-office supplies. That’s a big reversal of what happened during the pandemic.That’s helping to keep the economy afloat. If the economy continues to slow, however, spending on services could also go slack.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199732899168368,"gmtCreate":1689804719612,"gmtModify":1689804722875,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136549092423332","authorIdStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199732899168368","repostId":"199330782564528","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":199330782564528,"gmtCreate":1689692099224,"gmtModify":1689771553233,"author":{"id":"3527667626267411","authorId":"3527667626267411","name":"Value_investing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667626267411","authorIdStr":"3527667626267411"},"themes":[],"title":"Will the China-U.S. Chip War ease?","htmlText":"According to a Reuters report, executives from chip giants such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> met with the Biden administration on their policies toward China on the 17th. The insiders revealed that these executives opposed tightening export controls on chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. It is reported that Washington plans to announce new rules within a few weeks.Prior to this, there were media reports that the Netherlands and the United States were pressuring ASML <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$</a> to prohibit the sale of DUV lithography machines to China without Washington's approval, and even to provide maintenance, repair services and supply spare parts for restricted","listText":"According to a Reuters report, executives from chip giants such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> met with the Biden administration on their policies toward China on the 17th. The insiders revealed that these executives opposed tightening export controls on chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. It is reported that Washington plans to announce new rules within a few weeks.Prior to this, there were media reports that the Netherlands and the United States were pressuring ASML <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$</a> to prohibit the sale of DUV lithography machines to China without Washington's approval, and even to provide maintenance, repair services and supply spare parts for restricted","text":"According to a Reuters report, executives from chip giants such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ met with the Biden administration on their policies toward China on the 17th. The insiders revealed that these executives opposed tightening export controls on chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. It is reported that Washington plans to announce new rules within a few weeks.Prior to this, there were media reports that the Netherlands and the United States were pressuring ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ to prohibit the sale of DUV lithography machines to China without Washington's approval, and even to provide maintenance, repair services and supply spare parts for restricted","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2271347258551fa56a30b0ffec0ee750","width":"865","height":"422"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b7b376a6dada0f76c9ca19388a4800f","width":"866","height":"496"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/960540cf1d2c5ca8817321492ec6e939","width":"855","height":"392"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199330782564528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199732862976112,"gmtCreate":1689804710776,"gmtModify":1689804713797,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136549092423332","authorIdStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199732862976112","repostId":"199293705744400","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":199293705744400,"gmtCreate":1689682865497,"gmtModify":1689682928466,"author":{"id":"4100909900193040","authorId":"4100909900193040","name":"Twelve_E","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe7691e5de91fdc66dd91dd80b1207c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100909900193040","authorIdStr":"4100909900193040"},"themes":[],"title":"Earnings Season Kicking Into High Gear: Banks, TSLA, NFLX","htmlText":"On top of strong earnings reports from <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WFC\">$Wells Fargo(WFC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DAL\">$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$</a> and positive economic data from last week，US stocks rose. While judging from the results of financial stocks on last Friday, the results were mixed.Positive: Large institutions such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WFC\">$Wells Fargo(WFC)$</a> benefited from the boost in consumer business, and their performance exceeded analyst expectations. Among them, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> Chase reported a 67% increase in second-quarter profit and see stock price hi","listText":"On top of strong earnings reports from <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WFC\">$Wells Fargo(WFC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DAL\">$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$</a> and positive economic data from last week，US stocks rose. While judging from the results of financial stocks on last Friday, the results were mixed.Positive: Large institutions such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WFC\">$Wells Fargo(WFC)$</a> benefited from the boost in consumer business, and their performance exceeded analyst expectations. Among them, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> Chase reported a 67% increase in second-quarter profit and see stock price hi","text":"On top of strong earnings reports from $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ , $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ and positive economic data from last week，US stocks rose. While judging from the results of financial stocks on last Friday, the results were mixed.Positive: Large institutions such as $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ benefited from the boost in consumer business, and their performance exceeded analyst expectations. Among them, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ Chase reported a 67% increase in second-quarter profit and see stock price hi","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fbe9ba57f93a5d77e6c6391a6ccebcd7","width":"1760","height":"725"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c92454b213077aaa2bea656d4bcb0a2f","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf311930b4c48035ba60d4c371b4cad1","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199293705744400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199732781473920,"gmtCreate":1689804700413,"gmtModify":1689804704751,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136549092423332","authorIdStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199732781473920","repostId":"199297921343664","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":199297921343664,"gmtCreate":1689684076465,"gmtModify":1689684193590,"author":{"id":"3527667668165440","authorId":"3527667668165440","name":"Capital_Insights","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfdc66fff48bb2b9e2d328ac5eb33100","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668165440","authorIdStr":"3527667668165440"},"themes":[],"title":"Brett Eversole: New Highs Are Coming in 2023","htmlText":"Brett Eversole from Stansberry ResearchThe first half of 2023 surprised just about everyone...We saw worries of a recession hold steady... a handful of the largest bank failures in U.S. history... and a Federal Reserve that kept hiking interest rates.Despite all those headwinds, U.S. stocks have soared. The <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> Index was up 17% in the first half of the year. And we've only seen one other first half with gains of that level since 1998.What's interesting, though, is that this strong performance hasn't made most investors giddy. They're still worried about the dark clouds on the horizon. But according to history, they shouldn't be overly bearish for long.That's because the<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"Brett Eversole from Stansberry ResearchThe first half of 2023 surprised just about everyone...We saw worries of a recession hold steady... a handful of the largest bank failures in U.S. history... and a Federal Reserve that kept hiking interest rates.Despite all those headwinds, U.S. stocks have soared. The <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> Index was up 17% in the first half of the year. And we've only seen one other first half with gains of that level since 1998.What's interesting, though, is that this strong performance hasn't made most investors giddy. They're still worried about the dark clouds on the horizon. But according to history, they shouldn't be overly bearish for long.That's because the<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"Brett Eversole from Stansberry ResearchThe first half of 2023 surprised just about everyone...We saw worries of a recession hold steady... a handful of the largest bank failures in U.S. history... and a Federal Reserve that kept hiking interest rates.Despite all those headwinds, U.S. stocks have soared. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Index was up 17% in the first half of the year. And we've only seen one other first half with gains of that level since 1998.What's interesting, though, is that this strong performance hasn't made most investors giddy. They're still worried about the dark clouds on the horizon. But according to history, they shouldn't be overly bearish for long.That's because the$S&P 500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/90895671a0586bf714190d8f8945e187","width":"500","height":"500"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8872810ffa79278b23a505c67f0dad35","width":"510","height":"325"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1f4e6fc6fae989566e09cd29e579f675","width":"387","height":"104"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199297921343664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187119787880464,"gmtCreate":1686723081898,"gmtModify":1686723086881,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136549092423332","authorIdStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187119787880464","repostId":"2343567514","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2343567514","pubTimestamp":1686704403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2343567514?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-14 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2343567514","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Douglas Rissing The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the Fed to revise its summary of economic projections to show a higher inflation outlook and more rate hikes on the dot plot.</p><p>This means that yields across the curve are likely to stay elevated and move higher in the months ahead at a time when liquidity is now being withdrawn from the overall market and equities are dangerously overvalued.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2120bacd7ae744d7a9b26b91f6d1a51d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2>More Rate Hikes</h2><p>The market is not predicting a June rate hike, with the odds at just 10% as of this writing, and it seems unlikely that Fed will try and surprise the market, given its history. But Fed Fund futures are pricing a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike by July. With the next FOMC meeting coming at the end of July, the Fed will have more data to assess its projected rate path. However, given the hotter core CPI and searing labor market reports, it will probably mean that the dot plot will reflect another rate hike or two in 2023.</p><p>The reason is that core inflation is expected to remain sticky, and the Cleveland Fed estimates Core CPI for June at 5.1%. This means the chance the Fed is done raising rates seems slim at this point, and that will likely be reflected in the dot plots when the Summary of Economic Projections comes out.</p><p>Additionally, headline CPI on a non-seasonal adjusted basis rose by 0.3% in May. That has inflation rising at a 4.4% annualized rate of change over the past three and six months. This does suggest that it may be challenging to get inflation down now that it is entering this 3% to 4% range. It&#39;s important to remember that CPI on a year over year is measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and using a seasonally adjusted CPI metric to annualize the rate of change may understate actual inflation due to changes in seasonal adjustments, which happened in 2022.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538b5d9f6f2e8956f767d8f53d71b8c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This is why bond yields aren&#39;t coming down and are rising following the CPI report. Especially when looking at the back of the curve, as markets price in a higher for longer monetary policy from the Fed, with the 30-year rate rising back to 3.92%. But more importantly, real rates are pushing higher, with the 10-Yr TIP rate now trading at 1.58% and approaching that critical level of resistance that could lead to a big break out and push to new highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14a0538cce121027cd003790fb61875\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The 10-yr TIP is a critical rate to follow because assets such as long duration growth are priced using real rates, with the Nasdaq 100 being key. The spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the 10-yr real yield is now at 1.93%, levels not seen since the mid-2000s, when the Nasdaq was in the middle of a valuation reset from the 2000 bubble. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 235 bps below the historical average of the last 10 years.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763a5b0d5b2b8c255726b71f988c02aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The other piece of the puzzle is that liquidity is now starting to be withdrawn from the Nasdaq 100 futures market, as measured by the depth of the book. The last time the depth of the book declined was back in August of 2022, which also marked a significant top in the market.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810669f93ed838683f831e50269496db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p>CME Group</p><p>The addition and withdrawal of liquidity in the Nasdaq futures market in August 2022 coincided with a move up and down reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve. Currently, reserve balances are likely to decline due to the refill of the Treasury General Account. Further, as we move into the quarter end, the reverse repo activity should begin to climb, leading to lower reserves.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc60fcb97695095105c1677befc4bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The path for inflation is sticky and will continue not to be smooth, and if the current rate of changes remains, headline inflation could very well begin to accelerate in the second half of 2023 as the base effects of the first half of 2022 wane. Translating into yields staying elevated and leaving stock particularly vulnerable as the equity risk premium gets dangerously narrow and liquidity is withdrawn from the market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-14 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2343567514","content_text":"The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the Fed to revise its summary of economic projections to show a higher inflation outlook and more rate hikes on the dot plot.This means that yields across the curve are likely to stay elevated and move higher in the months ahead at a time when liquidity is now being withdrawn from the overall market and equities are dangerously overvalued.BloombergMore Rate HikesThe market is not predicting a June rate hike, with the odds at just 10% as of this writing, and it seems unlikely that Fed will try and surprise the market, given its history. But Fed Fund futures are pricing a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike by July. With the next FOMC meeting coming at the end of July, the Fed will have more data to assess its projected rate path. However, given the hotter core CPI and searing labor market reports, it will probably mean that the dot plot will reflect another rate hike or two in 2023.The reason is that core inflation is expected to remain sticky, and the Cleveland Fed estimates Core CPI for June at 5.1%. This means the chance the Fed is done raising rates seems slim at this point, and that will likely be reflected in the dot plots when the Summary of Economic Projections comes out.Additionally, headline CPI on a non-seasonal adjusted basis rose by 0.3% in May. That has inflation rising at a 4.4% annualized rate of change over the past three and six months. This does suggest that it may be challenging to get inflation down now that it is entering this 3% to 4% range. It's important to remember that CPI on a year over year is measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and using a seasonally adjusted CPI metric to annualize the rate of change may understate actual inflation due to changes in seasonal adjustments, which happened in 2022.BloombergThis is why bond yields aren't coming down and are rising following the CPI report. Especially when looking at the back of the curve, as markets price in a higher for longer monetary policy from the Fed, with the 30-year rate rising back to 3.92%. But more importantly, real rates are pushing higher, with the 10-Yr TIP rate now trading at 1.58% and approaching that critical level of resistance that could lead to a big break out and push to new highs.BloombergThe 10-yr TIP is a critical rate to follow because assets such as long duration growth are priced using real rates, with the Nasdaq 100 being key. The spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the 10-yr real yield is now at 1.93%, levels not seen since the mid-2000s, when the Nasdaq was in the middle of a valuation reset from the 2000 bubble. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 235 bps below the historical average of the last 10 years.BloombergThe other piece of the puzzle is that liquidity is now starting to be withdrawn from the Nasdaq 100 futures market, as measured by the depth of the book. The last time the depth of the book declined was back in August of 2022, which also marked a significant top in the market.CME GroupThe addition and withdrawal of liquidity in the Nasdaq futures market in August 2022 coincided with a move up and down reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve. Currently, reserve balances are likely to decline due to the refill of the Treasury General Account. Further, as we move into the quarter end, the reverse repo activity should begin to climb, leading to lower reserves.BloombergThe path for inflation is sticky and will continue not to be smooth, and if the current rate of changes remains, headline inflation could very well begin to accelerate in the second half of 2023 as the base effects of the first half of 2022 wane. Translating into yields staying elevated and leaving stock particularly vulnerable as the equity risk premium gets dangerously narrow and liquidity is withdrawn from the market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947651065,"gmtCreate":1683102641458,"gmtModify":1683102695768,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136549092423332","authorIdStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947651065","repostId":"2332969749","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2332969749","pubTimestamp":1683101725,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2332969749?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-03 16:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for June 1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332969749","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Congress still has not reached a verdict on raising the debt ceiling.It could send financial markets","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Congress still has not reached a verdict on raising the debt ceiling.</p></li><li><p>It could send financial markets into freefall if it does not agree on one soon.</p></li><li><p>However, Congress will likely prevent a stock market crash if it can.</p></li></ul><p>A significant economic event may be pushing the U.S. towards a stock market crash. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the importance of a looming decision. As she laid out, the U.S. must either extend its debt ceiling or risk defaulting for the first time in history, which could happen as soon as June 1. While several paths could lead to Congress increasing the debt ceiling, as <em>CNBC</em> notes, all three scenarios pose certain complications. Meanwhile, until Congress reaches a decision, dark clouds of uncertainty cast shadows over U.S. markets, raising questions for investors.</p><p>While a verdict will likely be reached before then, the threat of a stock market crash remains ever-present. Let’s dive deeper into what is at stake for U.S. markets while Congress deliberates on the national debt question.</p><h2>Is a Stock Market Crash Coming?</h2><p>Currently, it’s difficult to say if an outright crash is on the horizon for the U.S. But it’s easy to see why investors might be nervous. Over a decade ago, Congress faced a debt standoff that looked eerily similar to what is currently transpiring, and it posed significant problems for the economy. In 2011, Republicans attended to leverage the debt ceiling to negotiate spending cuts. As <em>The Guardian</em> reports, both parties reached a decision within 72 hours of when the country would have otherwise defaulted on its debt. In the days leading up to it, a stock market crash also seemed imminent.</p><p>It’s no secret that this isn’t coming at a great time for the market in general. Multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes have pushed stocks down throughout the year. The May Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting is quickly approaching, which will likely mean another hike. As <em>InvestorPlace</em> assistant news writer Shrey Dua reports, this could also potentially trigger a stock market crash. However, a crash is even more likely if the debt ceiling is not raised. Many politicians remember 2011 all too well, and they understand that it is in the best interest of everyone to avoid a repeat of that. As the <em>Wall Street Journal</em> reports:</p><blockquote>“Doubts that the U.S. could pay back buyers of its securities could therefore have wide-ranging, dangerous financial and economic consequences, including a potential global crisis, according to analysts. Missed payments on other U.S. obligations, including on Social Security benefits, could also cause economic pain across the country.”</blockquote><p>Dua also notes, though, that while the U.S. has never had to default on its debt, every day brings it increasingly closer to that grim outcome.</p><h2>What It Means</h2><p>While it’s hardly reassuring that the debt ceiling deadline is so close, Congress will likely do what is necessary to see it raised. The national debt is a highly politicized issue, but that doesn’t change the fact that a stock market crash is terrible for everyone. That should help reassure investors that Congress will reach a decision that will stop the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. No one wants to see that outcome.</p><p>Investors should watch closely for any progress on this front. Until Congress reaches the verdict that the economy needs, uncertainty will make it difficult for markets to rally.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for June 1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for June 1\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-03 16:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/05/stock-market-crash-alert-mark-your-calendars-for-june-1/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Congress still has not reached a verdict on raising the debt ceiling.It could send financial markets into freefall if it does not agree on one soon.However, Congress will likely prevent a stock market...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/05/stock-market-crash-alert-mark-your-calendars-for-june-1/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/05/stock-market-crash-alert-mark-your-calendars-for-june-1/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2332969749","content_text":"Congress still has not reached a verdict on raising the debt ceiling.It could send financial markets into freefall if it does not agree on one soon.However, Congress will likely prevent a stock market crash if it can.A significant economic event may be pushing the U.S. towards a stock market crash. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the importance of a looming decision. As she laid out, the U.S. must either extend its debt ceiling or risk defaulting for the first time in history, which could happen as soon as June 1. While several paths could lead to Congress increasing the debt ceiling, as CNBC notes, all three scenarios pose certain complications. Meanwhile, until Congress reaches a decision, dark clouds of uncertainty cast shadows over U.S. markets, raising questions for investors.While a verdict will likely be reached before then, the threat of a stock market crash remains ever-present. Let’s dive deeper into what is at stake for U.S. markets while Congress deliberates on the national debt question.Is a Stock Market Crash Coming?Currently, it’s difficult to say if an outright crash is on the horizon for the U.S. But it’s easy to see why investors might be nervous. Over a decade ago, Congress faced a debt standoff that looked eerily similar to what is currently transpiring, and it posed significant problems for the economy. In 2011, Republicans attended to leverage the debt ceiling to negotiate spending cuts. As The Guardian reports, both parties reached a decision within 72 hours of when the country would have otherwise defaulted on its debt. In the days leading up to it, a stock market crash also seemed imminent.It’s no secret that this isn’t coming at a great time for the market in general. Multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes have pushed stocks down throughout the year. The May Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting is quickly approaching, which will likely mean another hike. As InvestorPlace assistant news writer Shrey Dua reports, this could also potentially trigger a stock market crash. However, a crash is even more likely if the debt ceiling is not raised. Many politicians remember 2011 all too well, and they understand that it is in the best interest of everyone to avoid a repeat of that. As the Wall Street Journal reports:“Doubts that the U.S. could pay back buyers of its securities could therefore have wide-ranging, dangerous financial and economic consequences, including a potential global crisis, according to analysts. Missed payments on other U.S. obligations, including on Social Security benefits, could also cause economic pain across the country.”Dua also notes, though, that while the U.S. has never had to default on its debt, every day brings it increasingly closer to that grim outcome.What It MeansWhile it’s hardly reassuring that the debt ceiling deadline is so close, Congress will likely do what is necessary to see it raised. The national debt is a highly politicized issue, but that doesn’t change the fact that a stock market crash is terrible for everyone. That should help reassure investors that Congress will reach a decision that will stop the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. No one wants to see that outcome.Investors should watch closely for any progress on this front. Until Congress reaches the verdict that the economy needs, uncertainty will make it difficult for markets to rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944731719,"gmtCreate":1682091235932,"gmtModify":1682092139426,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136549092423332","authorIdStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944731719","repostId":"1167652223","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944739826,"gmtCreate":1682088659265,"gmtModify":1682090387136,"author":{"id":"4136549092423332","authorId":"4136549092423332","name":"Zul.","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136549092423332","authorIdStr":"4136549092423332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944739826","repostId":"2329008911","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}