Roksnana personal page - To The Moon

Roksnana

Roksnana

No personal profile

2Follow

1Followers

0Topic

0Badge

10-11

Shouldn't we consider the social implications of destruction of taxi industry.How will Tesla support driver affected by this technological shift.

Tesla's Robotaxi Event Disappoints Investors

10-21

"ASML's constant price target changes reek of manipulation. Lack of transparency serves personal interests."[Thinking]

ASML Holding: Share Price Is Still Lofty Despite The Most Recent 16% Plunge

08-30

"Market manipulation persists as some exploit pump and dump schemes, preying on unsuspecting investors. Transparency and accountability are crucial to protecting retail investors and maintaining a fair market."[Allin]

Nasdaq, S&P, Dow futures in green ahead of inflation report

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4141547829789112","uuid":"4141547829789112","gmtCreate":1678444729514,"gmtModify":1698644634485,"name":"Roksnana","pinyin":"roksnana","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d45ec43d9d33b5d6cde51ffb3f2f349","hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","hatId":"ca_profile_frame_Mpy1eK","hatName":"","vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":2,"tweetSize":3,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":1,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"init","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.20","exceedPercentage":"60.80%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.10","exceedPercentage":"93.92%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.01","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.17","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.01","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":362400193802248,"gmtCreate":1729512521478,"gmtModify":1729513007774,"author":{"id":"4141547829789112","authorId":"4141547829789112","name":"Roksnana","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d45ec43d9d33b5d6cde51ffb3f2f349","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4141547829789112","authorIdStr":"4141547829789112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\"ASML's constant price target changes reek of manipulation. Lack of transparency serves personal interests.\"[Thinking]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"\"ASML's constant price target changes reek of manipulation. Lack of transparency serves personal interests.\"[Thinking]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"\"ASML's constant price target changes reek of manipulation. Lack of transparency serves personal interests.\"[Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362400193802248","repostId":"2477058250","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477058250","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1729484876,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477058250?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-21 12:27","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"ASML Holding: Share Price Is Still Lofty Despite The Most Recent 16% Plunge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477058250","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing 49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying.Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net boo","content":"<html><body><ul><li>ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing €49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying.</li><li>Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net bookings fell by 52%, and future growth is expected to slow, with 2024 revenue growth projected at only 2.33%.</li><li>ASML is still highly dependent on China and will continue to face challenges due to stricter export controls, potentially affecting the company's sales.</li><li>Valuation analysis based on management's guidance suggests that, current share price is still lofty and there is a potential downside of 13.84%.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"3885px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"5825px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Sundry Photography</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>On 15 October 2024, the share price of ASML Holding (<span>NASDAQ:ASML</span>) (OTCPK:ASMLF) plunged by 16% after information related to the company's 3Q24 results was published earlier due to a technical error<span>. During this period, the company has lost about €49.2 billion in market capitalization.</span></p> <p>Given that most of the world's semiconductor foundries are dependent on ASML, this may represent a good opportunity for investors to accumulate shares. However, based on my analysis, I believe that investors should hold their horses and not be overly excited. In this report, I will demonstrate why we should wait for the prices to further correct before starting to accumulate shares of ASML.</p> <h2>Latest Developments</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-17294098969644122.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>ASML Performance 4Q24 <span>(Earnings Presentation)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In 3Q24, total revenues surged from €6.24 billion to €7.47 billion, representing a growth of 11.90% year-on-year. During this period, the company has sold 17 more lithography systems as compared to the same period last year. However, total net bookings plunged by 52% to €2.63 billion from €5.57 billion the same period last year. Gross margin declined from 51.87% the same period last year to 50.80% but was offset declines in operating expenses; total operating income margin remain at 32.70%.</p> <p>Looking forward, the company expects 4Q24 sales to range between €8.8 billion to €9.2 billion and gross margin to deteriorate further to between 49% and 50%. Despite lower gross margin, the company expects to spend lower on R&amp;D and SG&amp;A costs, offsetting deteriorations in gross margin.</p> <h2>ASML's Growth Rate To Continue Deteriorating</h2> <p>Although developments in artificial intelligence is likely to continue providing tailwinds for demand, it seems clear that the company's growth has peaked. ASML's 4Q24 sales guidance suggests that the company will likely post a revenue of €28.2 billion, representing a growth of only 2.33% this year. The slowdown in growth is primarily due to a slower recovery in the traditional non-AI related markets.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-17294176757650776.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p>ASML Historical Revenue Growth <span>(Company Filings)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Over the past three years, we have seen an average growth of around 25% per annum. Moreover, the company expects to generate between €44 billion and €60 billion in sales by FY2030, representing an average growth of 13% per annum. It is clear that the company's growth has declined, and it is unlikely that we will continue to see an elevated growth rate of about 25%. After all, in the latest earnings call, Christophe Fouquet, Chief Executive of ASML, had said, \"without AI, the market would be very sad\".</p> <h2>'China Issue' To Continue Weighing On ASML</h2> <p>Apart from ASML's latest revenue woes, the company is also facing a lot of challenges due to export controls. The Dutch government has aligned with the United States and will prevent ASML from selling the company's more advanced machines to China; even older machines will be subjected to this regulation. The Dutch's Prime Minister, Dick Schoof, will also not allow ASML to service China's equipment when the company's license expires this year.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-1729419452676056.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>ASML's Geographical Exposure <span>(Company Filings)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>More importantly, ASML's remains highly exposed to China. In 2024, close to half of the company's revenue is attributable to China. Despite stringent export controls and a slew of new regulations, the company's biggest market is still in China. Roger Dassen, ASML's Chief Financial Officer have stated that sales in China will normalize to 20% of total revenue from about 49%.</p> <p>It is important to highlight that this is based on the current regulatory environment. If regulations further tighten, there is a strong likelihood that sales will further deteriorate, falling short of the company's projections.</p> <h2>Markets Are Still Pricing In A Premium</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-1729418423681526.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Valuation Analysis <span>(Author's Projections)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Even though the company has plunged by close to 16% since Tuesday, the current share price of €664.50 implies that the markets are extremely optimistic about the company's growth rate.</p> <p>If we assume: (1) the company's gross margin eventually reaches its target of 60% by FY2030, (2) current share price of €664.50, and (3) all other margins (e.g. SG&amp;A and R&amp;D) to maintain at its current level, a reverse valuation analysis will suggest that the market is pricing in a revenue growth of 16% per annum between FY2025 and FY2030. In other words, markets are pricing in a premium and expects the company to beat its revenue growth rate by 3% per annum for the next six years. To put it into context, markets are expecting ASML to generate €70 billion in revenues as compared to the company's guidance of €60 billion.</p> <h2>ASML Is A Cash Generator And Has A History Of Giving Back To Its Shareholders</h2> <p>Do not get me wrong, ASML has been an exceptional company that has a strong balance sheet and strong liquidity profile. Moreover, the company has stable margins and has proved to be able to effectively generate sustainable cashflows over the years. Over the past 10 years, the company has generated €35 billion in free cash flow.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-1729421353363598.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p>ASML's Historical Free Cash Flow <span>(Company Filings)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Moreover, the company has a strong history of giving back to its shareholders. Over the past five years, the company's share buyback plan has reached a cumulative share buyback of €22.80 billion. ASML has also given back about a total of 10 billion in dividends over the past five years.</p> <h2>Valuation Based On Management's Guidance Suggests Share Price Is Lofty</h2> <p>Given that the management has provided so much color, I have utilized these inputs to conduct a valuation analysis of ASML's share price. My valuation model will be based on the following inputs: (1) revenue growth of 2.33% in FY2024 and 13.41% between FY2025 to FY2030, (2) gross margins to improve from 51.29% in FY2023 to 60% by FY30, (3) other margins such as SG&amp;A and R&amp;D to maintain at current levels, and (4) WACC of 8.57% and terminal growth rate of 5%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-17294223372009742.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Valuation Analysis <span>(Author's Projections)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Based on these assumptions, which are fairly generous with a terminal growth rate of 5%, the valuation model based on discounted cashflows suggests that the company's implied share price of €572.52. Based on the current share price of €664.50, it does seem that the price of ASML is still quite lofty.</p> <h2>Closing Remarks</h2> <p>ASML's share price has declined by about 16% in the most recent sell off, indicating a 33% of decrease from the company's peak in July 2024. Given the current artificial intelligence hype train and investors' interest in semiconductor related stocks, it is not surprising that many are using this opportunity to accumulate shares.</p> <p>However, I believe that market participants are still pricing in a strong premium in ASML's shares. Using inputs from the company's management, the implied share price is 572.52, representing a potential further downside of 13.84%. Given the lack of any margin of safety, investors should not get overly excited; I believe that it will be wise for us to hold out longer before we see the value that we want to capitalize.</p> <div></div> <p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML Holding: Share Price Is Still Lofty Despite The Most Recent 16% Plunge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML Holding: Share Price Is Still Lofty Despite The Most Recent 16% Plunge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-21 12:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4727941-asml-q3-earnings-share-price-still-lofty-despite-most-recent-16-percent-plunge><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing €49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying.Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4727941-asml-q3-earnings-share-price-still-lofty-despite-most-recent-16-percent-plunge\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4147":"半导体设备","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1734074674.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC FRANCHISE \"A\"(USD) ACC","ASMLF":"ASML Holding N.V.","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","03165":"华夏欧优股对冲","ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4727941-asml-q3-earnings-share-price-still-lofty-despite-most-recent-16-percent-plunge","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2477058250","content_text":"ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing €49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying.Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net bookings fell by 52%, and future growth is expected to slow, with 2024 revenue growth projected at only 2.33%.ASML is still highly dependent on China and will continue to face challenges due to stricter export controls, potentially affecting the company's sales.Valuation analysis based on management's guidance suggests that, current share price is still lofty and there is a potential downside of 13.84%.   Sundry Photography Introduction On 15 October 2024, the share price of ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) (OTCPK:ASMLF) plunged by 16% after information related to the company's 3Q24 results was published earlier due to a technical error. During this period, the company has lost about €49.2 billion in market capitalization. Given that most of the world's semiconductor foundries are dependent on ASML, this may represent a good opportunity for investors to accumulate shares. However, based on my analysis, I believe that investors should hold their horses and not be overly excited. In this report, I will demonstrate why we should wait for the prices to further correct before starting to accumulate shares of ASML. Latest Developments ASML Performance 4Q24 (Earnings Presentation) In 3Q24, total revenues surged from €6.24 billion to €7.47 billion, representing a growth of 11.90% year-on-year. During this period, the company has sold 17 more lithography systems as compared to the same period last year. However, total net bookings plunged by 52% to €2.63 billion from €5.57 billion the same period last year. Gross margin declined from 51.87% the same period last year to 50.80% but was offset declines in operating expenses; total operating income margin remain at 32.70%. Looking forward, the company expects 4Q24 sales to range between €8.8 billion to €9.2 billion and gross margin to deteriorate further to between 49% and 50%. Despite lower gross margin, the company expects to spend lower on R&D and SG&A costs, offsetting deteriorations in gross margin. ASML's Growth Rate To Continue Deteriorating Although developments in artificial intelligence is likely to continue providing tailwinds for demand, it seems clear that the company's growth has peaked. ASML's 4Q24 sales guidance suggests that the company will likely post a revenue of €28.2 billion, representing a growth of only 2.33% this year. The slowdown in growth is primarily due to a slower recovery in the traditional non-AI related markets.   ASML Historical Revenue Growth (Company Filings) Over the past three years, we have seen an average growth of around 25% per annum. Moreover, the company expects to generate between €44 billion and €60 billion in sales by FY2030, representing an average growth of 13% per annum. It is clear that the company's growth has declined, and it is unlikely that we will continue to see an elevated growth rate of about 25%. After all, in the latest earnings call, Christophe Fouquet, Chief Executive of ASML, had said, \"without AI, the market would be very sad\". 'China Issue' To Continue Weighing On ASML Apart from ASML's latest revenue woes, the company is also facing a lot of challenges due to export controls. The Dutch government has aligned with the United States and will prevent ASML from selling the company's more advanced machines to China; even older machines will be subjected to this regulation. The Dutch's Prime Minister, Dick Schoof, will also not allow ASML to service China's equipment when the company's license expires this year. ASML's Geographical Exposure (Company Filings) More importantly, ASML's remains highly exposed to China. In 2024, close to half of the company's revenue is attributable to China. Despite stringent export controls and a slew of new regulations, the company's biggest market is still in China. Roger Dassen, ASML's Chief Financial Officer have stated that sales in China will normalize to 20% of total revenue from about 49%. It is important to highlight that this is based on the current regulatory environment. If regulations further tighten, there is a strong likelihood that sales will further deteriorate, falling short of the company's projections. Markets Are Still Pricing In A Premium Valuation Analysis (Author's Projections) Even though the company has plunged by close to 16% since Tuesday, the current share price of €664.50 implies that the markets are extremely optimistic about the company's growth rate. If we assume: (1) the company's gross margin eventually reaches its target of 60% by FY2030, (2) current share price of €664.50, and (3) all other margins (e.g. SG&A and R&D) to maintain at its current level, a reverse valuation analysis will suggest that the market is pricing in a revenue growth of 16% per annum between FY2025 and FY2030. In other words, markets are pricing in a premium and expects the company to beat its revenue growth rate by 3% per annum for the next six years. To put it into context, markets are expecting ASML to generate €70 billion in revenues as compared to the company's guidance of €60 billion. ASML Is A Cash Generator And Has A History Of Giving Back To Its Shareholders Do not get me wrong, ASML has been an exceptional company that has a strong balance sheet and strong liquidity profile. Moreover, the company has stable margins and has proved to be able to effectively generate sustainable cashflows over the years. Over the past 10 years, the company has generated €35 billion in free cash flow.   ASML's Historical Free Cash Flow (Company Filings) Moreover, the company has a strong history of giving back to its shareholders. Over the past five years, the company's share buyback plan has reached a cumulative share buyback of €22.80 billion. ASML has also given back about a total of 10 billion in dividends over the past five years. Valuation Based On Management's Guidance Suggests Share Price Is Lofty Given that the management has provided so much color, I have utilized these inputs to conduct a valuation analysis of ASML's share price. My valuation model will be based on the following inputs: (1) revenue growth of 2.33% in FY2024 and 13.41% between FY2025 to FY2030, (2) gross margins to improve from 51.29% in FY2023 to 60% by FY30, (3) other margins such as SG&A and R&D to maintain at current levels, and (4) WACC of 8.57% and terminal growth rate of 5%. Valuation Analysis (Author's Projections) Based on these assumptions, which are fairly generous with a terminal growth rate of 5%, the valuation model based on discounted cashflows suggests that the company's implied share price of €572.52. Based on the current share price of €664.50, it does seem that the price of ASML is still quite lofty. Closing Remarks ASML's share price has declined by about 16% in the most recent sell off, indicating a 33% of decrease from the company's peak in July 2024. Given the current artificial intelligence hype train and investors' interest in semiconductor related stocks, it is not surprising that many are using this opportunity to accumulate shares. However, I believe that market participants are still pricing in a strong premium in ASML's shares. Using inputs from the company's management, the implied share price is 572.52, representing a potential further downside of 13.84%. Given the lack of any margin of safety, investors should not get overly excited; I believe that it will be wise for us to hold out longer before we see the value that we want to capitalize.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358986863136944,"gmtCreate":1728651276427,"gmtModify":1728651877360,"author":{"id":"4141547829789112","authorId":"4141547829789112","name":"Roksnana","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d45ec43d9d33b5d6cde51ffb3f2f349","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4141547829789112","authorIdStr":"4141547829789112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shouldn't we consider the social implications of&nbsp; destruction of taxi industry.How will Tesla support driver affected&nbsp;by this technological shift.","listText":"Shouldn't we consider the social implications of&nbsp; destruction of taxi industry.How will Tesla support driver affected&nbsp;by this technological shift.","text":"Shouldn't we consider the social implications of destruction of taxi industry.How will Tesla support driver affected by this technological shift.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358986863136944","repostId":"2474067566","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2474067566","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1728645840,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2474067566?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-11 19:24","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Robotaxi Event Disappoints Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2474067566","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street's early reaction to Elon Musk's  robotaxi reveal?Shares in Tesla fell roughly 6% in premarket trading Friday following an event that was heavier on showbiz but lighter on business than investors had hoped after months of buildup. The overnight stock drop points to about a $40 billion slump in the electric-car maker's valuation at the open.Tesla on Thursday evening revealed a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals at a tightly choreographed product launch in Los Angeles.Following a strategic pivot toward robotics and autonomy this year, Musk had billed the event as Tesla's most significant since the launch of its benchmark-setting Model 3 in 2017. For investors, a move into robotaxis offers one way to justify Tesla's $763 billion market value. After a rally in the stock in anticipation of the event, Musk's company is worth almost three times as much as Toyota, the world's best-selling car maker.\"We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding Tesla's near-t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street&#39;s early reaction to Elon Musk&#39;s robotaxi reveal? Disappointment.</p><p>Shares in Tesla fell roughly 6% in premarket trading Friday following an event that was heavier on showbiz but lighter on business than investors had hoped after months of buildup. The overnight stock drop points to about a $40 billion slump in the electric-car maker&#39;s valuation at the open.</p><p>Tesla on Thursday evening revealed a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals at a tightly choreographed product launch in Los Angeles.</p><p>Following a strategic pivot toward robotics and autonomy this year, Musk had billed the event as Tesla&#39;s most significant since the launch of its benchmark-setting Model 3 in 2017. For investors, a move into robotaxis offers one way to justify Tesla&#39;s $763 billion market value. After a rally in the stock in anticipation of the event, Musk&#39;s company is worth almost three times as much as Toyota, the world&#39;s best-selling car maker.</p><p>&#34;Investors we spoke to at the event thought the event was light of real numbers and timelines. These typically come at Tesla events. This one seemed focused on branding and marketing Tesla&#39;s vision,&#34; said Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada.</p><p>In a roughly half-hour presentation, Musk painted a picture of a green, sunny future in which autonomous vehicles eliminate parking lots and rush-hour traffic. Among the few concrete details were that Tesla&#39;s Cybercab would enter production in 2026 and sell for less than $30,000.</p><p>To achieve those goals, Tesla will have to master two formidable technical challenges: cutting the production cost of electric vehicles, and making them drive themselves without human intervention to a safety level capable of satisfying risk-averse regulators. Musk didn&#39;t give his guests at the robotaxi event evidence of progress on either score.</p><p>The most advanced version of Tesla&#39;s current driver-automation software, which it calls &#34;full-self driving (supervised),&#34; requires the attention of a human driver as a backup. Musk said Thursday that an unsupervised version of FSD would be released in California and Texas next year. The Tesla chief executive has a decadelong record of missing such deadlines, leading to skepticism from analysts.</p><p>&#34;Making the leap from where we are today to full autonomy (particularly through unsupervised vehicles with zero steering or pedals) is so gargantuan, technology-wise, that it feels overly ambitious in such a short period of time,&#34; wrote Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at car-shopping site Edmunds.</p><p>Those expecting hints about the progress of a lower-cost Tesla that does include a driving wheel and pedals were also left frustrated. The company still hasn&#39;t previewed the model, which Musk in July said would come out next year.</p><p>&#34;We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding Tesla&#39;s near-term product road map,&#34; wrote CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Robotaxi Event Disappoints Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Robotaxi Event Disappoints Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-11 19:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street&#39;s early reaction to Elon Musk&#39;s robotaxi reveal? Disappointment.</p><p>Shares in Tesla fell roughly 6% in premarket trading Friday following an event that was heavier on showbiz but lighter on business than investors had hoped after months of buildup. The overnight stock drop points to about a $40 billion slump in the electric-car maker&#39;s valuation at the open.</p><p>Tesla on Thursday evening revealed a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals at a tightly choreographed product launch in Los Angeles.</p><p>Following a strategic pivot toward robotics and autonomy this year, Musk had billed the event as Tesla&#39;s most significant since the launch of its benchmark-setting Model 3 in 2017. For investors, a move into robotaxis offers one way to justify Tesla&#39;s $763 billion market value. After a rally in the stock in anticipation of the event, Musk&#39;s company is worth almost three times as much as Toyota, the world&#39;s best-selling car maker.</p><p>&#34;Investors we spoke to at the event thought the event was light of real numbers and timelines. These typically come at Tesla events. This one seemed focused on branding and marketing Tesla&#39;s vision,&#34; said Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada.</p><p>In a roughly half-hour presentation, Musk painted a picture of a green, sunny future in which autonomous vehicles eliminate parking lots and rush-hour traffic. Among the few concrete details were that Tesla&#39;s Cybercab would enter production in 2026 and sell for less than $30,000.</p><p>To achieve those goals, Tesla will have to master two formidable technical challenges: cutting the production cost of electric vehicles, and making them drive themselves without human intervention to a safety level capable of satisfying risk-averse regulators. Musk didn&#39;t give his guests at the robotaxi event evidence of progress on either score.</p><p>The most advanced version of Tesla&#39;s current driver-automation software, which it calls &#34;full-self driving (supervised),&#34; requires the attention of a human driver as a backup. Musk said Thursday that an unsupervised version of FSD would be released in California and Texas next year. The Tesla chief executive has a decadelong record of missing such deadlines, leading to skepticism from analysts.</p><p>&#34;Making the leap from where we are today to full autonomy (particularly through unsupervised vehicles with zero steering or pedals) is so gargantuan, technology-wise, that it feels overly ambitious in such a short period of time,&#34; wrote Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at car-shopping site Edmunds.</p><p>Those expecting hints about the progress of a lower-cost Tesla that does include a driving wheel and pedals were also left frustrated. The company still hasn&#39;t previewed the model, which Musk in July said would come out next year.</p><p>&#34;We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding Tesla&#39;s near-term product road map,&#34; wrote CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4588":"碎股","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2474067566","content_text":"Wall Street's early reaction to Elon Musk's robotaxi reveal? Disappointment.Shares in Tesla fell roughly 6% in premarket trading Friday following an event that was heavier on showbiz but lighter on business than investors had hoped after months of buildup. The overnight stock drop points to about a $40 billion slump in the electric-car maker's valuation at the open.Tesla on Thursday evening revealed a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals at a tightly choreographed product launch in Los Angeles.Following a strategic pivot toward robotics and autonomy this year, Musk had billed the event as Tesla's most significant since the launch of its benchmark-setting Model 3 in 2017. For investors, a move into robotaxis offers one way to justify Tesla's $763 billion market value. After a rally in the stock in anticipation of the event, Musk's company is worth almost three times as much as Toyota, the world's best-selling car maker.\"Investors we spoke to at the event thought the event was light of real numbers and timelines. These typically come at Tesla events. This one seemed focused on branding and marketing Tesla's vision,\" said Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada.In a roughly half-hour presentation, Musk painted a picture of a green, sunny future in which autonomous vehicles eliminate parking lots and rush-hour traffic. Among the few concrete details were that Tesla's Cybercab would enter production in 2026 and sell for less than $30,000.To achieve those goals, Tesla will have to master two formidable technical challenges: cutting the production cost of electric vehicles, and making them drive themselves without human intervention to a safety level capable of satisfying risk-averse regulators. Musk didn't give his guests at the robotaxi event evidence of progress on either score.The most advanced version of Tesla's current driver-automation software, which it calls \"full-self driving (supervised),\" requires the attention of a human driver as a backup. Musk said Thursday that an unsupervised version of FSD would be released in California and Texas next year. The Tesla chief executive has a decadelong record of missing such deadlines, leading to skepticism from analysts.\"Making the leap from where we are today to full autonomy (particularly through unsupervised vehicles with zero steering or pedals) is so gargantuan, technology-wise, that it feels overly ambitious in such a short period of time,\" wrote Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at car-shopping site Edmunds.Those expecting hints about the progress of a lower-cost Tesla that does include a driving wheel and pedals were also left frustrated. The company still hasn't previewed the model, which Musk in July said would come out next year.\"We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding Tesla's near-term product road map,\" wrote CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576140222331577","authorId":"3576140222331577","name":"Guavaxf30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff15ff6aa254c9130f9af922f7e2447","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576140222331577","authorIdStr":"3576140222331577"},"content":"Elon Musk does not care about them. Look at what he did to Twitter staff. Also how his existing Tesla staff are treated.","text":"Elon Musk does not care about them. Look at what he did to Twitter staff. Also how his existing Tesla staff are treated.","html":"Elon Musk does not care about them. Look at what he did to Twitter staff. Also how his existing Tesla staff are treated."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344031033483312,"gmtCreate":1725016494547,"gmtModify":1725017982183,"author":{"id":"4141547829789112","authorId":"4141547829789112","name":"Roksnana","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d45ec43d9d33b5d6cde51ffb3f2f349","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4141547829789112","authorIdStr":"4141547829789112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\"Market manipulation persists as some exploit pump and dump schemes, preying on unsuspecting investors. Transparency and accountability are crucial to protecting retail investors and maintaining a fair market.\"[Allin]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"\"Market manipulation persists as some exploit pump and dump schemes, preying on unsuspecting investors. Transparency and accountability are crucial to protecting retail investors and maintaining a fair market.\"[Allin]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"\"Market manipulation persists as some exploit pump and dump schemes, preying on unsuspecting investors. Transparency and accountability are crucial to protecting retail investors and maintaining a fair market.\"[Allin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344031033483312","repostId":"2463990784","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2463990784","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1725012738,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463990784?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-30 18:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq, S&P, Dow futures in green ahead of inflation report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463990784","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders look forward to the key inflation data slated to come later in the day. S&P 500 futures (SPX) +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) +0.7% and Dow ","content":"<html><body><p>Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders look forward to the key inflation data slated to come later in the day.</p> <p>S&amp;P 500 futures (<span>SPX</span>) <span>+0.5%</span>, Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) <span>+0.7%</span> and Dow futures (<span>INDU</span>) <span>+0.2%</span>.</p> <p>The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y<span>) was unchanged at 3.86%. The 2-year yield (</span>US2Y<span>) was flat at 3.91%.</span></p> <p>U.S. stocks on Thursday ended mixed, as an afternoon bout of selling ate into strong gains earlier, after a post-earnings drop in chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) intensified through the session and offset a boost to sentiment from data that showed a more robust expansion in the economy in the second quarter than previously estimated.</p> <p>\"Risk assets put in a decent performance over the last 24 hours, as solid US data outweighed investors’ disappointment about Nvidia’s latest results,\" Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen said.</p> <p>\"With all that data in hand, the general perception was that the economy was doing better than thought, and that a larger 50bp cut from the Federal Reserve was now less likely,\" Allen said.</p> <p>Investors are now bracing for the July core personal consumption expenditure price index report, which will land before the bell. </p> <p>The Fed's favored inflation gauge is expected to show a 0.2% M/M increase in July, the same growth rate as in June. On a Y/Y basis, that's expected to be 2.7%, up a tick from 2.6% in June. Core PCE strips out food and energy prices, which can swing significantly from month to month.</p> <p>Including food and energy, the PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% in July, up from 0.1% in June, and 2.5% Y/Y, unchanged from the prior month.</p> <p>\"Disinflation data continues today. The July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any U.S. household,\" UBS' Paul Donovan said.</p> <p>Other economic reports for today include the August Chicago PMI and the August consumer sentiment. The former is expected to come in at 45, while the latter is anticipated at 67.8.</p> </body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq, S&P, Dow futures in green ahead of inflation report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq, S&P, Dow futures in green ahead of inflation report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-30 18:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145384-sp500-nasdaq-dow-jones-outlook-stock-market-pce><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders look forward to the key inflation data slated to come later in the day. S&P 500 futures (SPX) +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) +0.7% and Dow ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145384-sp500-nasdaq-dow-jones-outlook-stock-market-pce\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/668600179/image_668600179.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","BK4527":"明星科技股","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145384-sp500-nasdaq-dow-jones-outlook-stock-market-pce","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2463990784","content_text":"Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders look forward to the key inflation data slated to come later in the day. S&P 500 futures (SPX) +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) +0.7% and Dow futures (INDU) +0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) was unchanged at 3.86%. The 2-year yield (US2Y) was flat at 3.91%. U.S. stocks on Thursday ended mixed, as an afternoon bout of selling ate into strong gains earlier, after a post-earnings drop in chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) intensified through the session and offset a boost to sentiment from data that showed a more robust expansion in the economy in the second quarter than previously estimated. \"Risk assets put in a decent performance over the last 24 hours, as solid US data outweighed investors’ disappointment about Nvidia’s latest results,\" Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen said. \"With all that data in hand, the general perception was that the economy was doing better than thought, and that a larger 50bp cut from the Federal Reserve was now less likely,\" Allen said. Investors are now bracing for the July core personal consumption expenditure price index report, which will land before the bell.  The Fed's favored inflation gauge is expected to show a 0.2% M/M increase in July, the same growth rate as in June. On a Y/Y basis, that's expected to be 2.7%, up a tick from 2.6% in June. Core PCE strips out food and energy prices, which can swing significantly from month to month. Including food and energy, the PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% in July, up from 0.1% in June, and 2.5% Y/Y, unchanged from the prior month. \"Disinflation data continues today. The July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any U.S. household,\" UBS' Paul Donovan said. Other economic reports for today include the August Chicago PMI and the August consumer sentiment. The former is expected to come in at 45, while the latter is anticipated at 67.8.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":358986863136944,"gmtCreate":1728651276427,"gmtModify":1728651877360,"author":{"id":"4141547829789112","authorId":"4141547829789112","name":"Roksnana","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d45ec43d9d33b5d6cde51ffb3f2f349","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4141547829789112","authorIdStr":"4141547829789112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shouldn't we consider the social implications of&nbsp; destruction of taxi industry.How will Tesla support driver affected&nbsp;by this technological shift.","listText":"Shouldn't we consider the social implications of&nbsp; destruction of taxi industry.How will Tesla support driver affected&nbsp;by this technological shift.","text":"Shouldn't we consider the social implications of destruction of taxi industry.How will Tesla support driver affected by this technological shift.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358986863136944","repostId":"2474067566","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2474067566","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1728645840,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2474067566?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-11 19:24","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Robotaxi Event Disappoints Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2474067566","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street's early reaction to Elon Musk's  robotaxi reveal?Shares in Tesla fell roughly 6% in premarket trading Friday following an event that was heavier on showbiz but lighter on business than investors had hoped after months of buildup. The overnight stock drop points to about a $40 billion slump in the electric-car maker's valuation at the open.Tesla on Thursday evening revealed a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals at a tightly choreographed product launch in Los Angeles.Following a strategic pivot toward robotics and autonomy this year, Musk had billed the event as Tesla's most significant since the launch of its benchmark-setting Model 3 in 2017. For investors, a move into robotaxis offers one way to justify Tesla's $763 billion market value. After a rally in the stock in anticipation of the event, Musk's company is worth almost three times as much as Toyota, the world's best-selling car maker.\"We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding Tesla's near-t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street&#39;s early reaction to Elon Musk&#39;s robotaxi reveal? Disappointment.</p><p>Shares in Tesla fell roughly 6% in premarket trading Friday following an event that was heavier on showbiz but lighter on business than investors had hoped after months of buildup. The overnight stock drop points to about a $40 billion slump in the electric-car maker&#39;s valuation at the open.</p><p>Tesla on Thursday evening revealed a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals at a tightly choreographed product launch in Los Angeles.</p><p>Following a strategic pivot toward robotics and autonomy this year, Musk had billed the event as Tesla&#39;s most significant since the launch of its benchmark-setting Model 3 in 2017. For investors, a move into robotaxis offers one way to justify Tesla&#39;s $763 billion market value. After a rally in the stock in anticipation of the event, Musk&#39;s company is worth almost three times as much as Toyota, the world&#39;s best-selling car maker.</p><p>&#34;Investors we spoke to at the event thought the event was light of real numbers and timelines. These typically come at Tesla events. This one seemed focused on branding and marketing Tesla&#39;s vision,&#34; said Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada.</p><p>In a roughly half-hour presentation, Musk painted a picture of a green, sunny future in which autonomous vehicles eliminate parking lots and rush-hour traffic. Among the few concrete details were that Tesla&#39;s Cybercab would enter production in 2026 and sell for less than $30,000.</p><p>To achieve those goals, Tesla will have to master two formidable technical challenges: cutting the production cost of electric vehicles, and making them drive themselves without human intervention to a safety level capable of satisfying risk-averse regulators. Musk didn&#39;t give his guests at the robotaxi event evidence of progress on either score.</p><p>The most advanced version of Tesla&#39;s current driver-automation software, which it calls &#34;full-self driving (supervised),&#34; requires the attention of a human driver as a backup. Musk said Thursday that an unsupervised version of FSD would be released in California and Texas next year. The Tesla chief executive has a decadelong record of missing such deadlines, leading to skepticism from analysts.</p><p>&#34;Making the leap from where we are today to full autonomy (particularly through unsupervised vehicles with zero steering or pedals) is so gargantuan, technology-wise, that it feels overly ambitious in such a short period of time,&#34; wrote Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at car-shopping site Edmunds.</p><p>Those expecting hints about the progress of a lower-cost Tesla that does include a driving wheel and pedals were also left frustrated. The company still hasn&#39;t previewed the model, which Musk in July said would come out next year.</p><p>&#34;We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding Tesla&#39;s near-term product road map,&#34; wrote CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Robotaxi Event Disappoints Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Robotaxi Event Disappoints Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-11 19:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street&#39;s early reaction to Elon Musk&#39;s robotaxi reveal? Disappointment.</p><p>Shares in Tesla fell roughly 6% in premarket trading Friday following an event that was heavier on showbiz but lighter on business than investors had hoped after months of buildup. The overnight stock drop points to about a $40 billion slump in the electric-car maker&#39;s valuation at the open.</p><p>Tesla on Thursday evening revealed a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals at a tightly choreographed product launch in Los Angeles.</p><p>Following a strategic pivot toward robotics and autonomy this year, Musk had billed the event as Tesla&#39;s most significant since the launch of its benchmark-setting Model 3 in 2017. For investors, a move into robotaxis offers one way to justify Tesla&#39;s $763 billion market value. After a rally in the stock in anticipation of the event, Musk&#39;s company is worth almost three times as much as Toyota, the world&#39;s best-selling car maker.</p><p>&#34;Investors we spoke to at the event thought the event was light of real numbers and timelines. These typically come at Tesla events. This one seemed focused on branding and marketing Tesla&#39;s vision,&#34; said Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada.</p><p>In a roughly half-hour presentation, Musk painted a picture of a green, sunny future in which autonomous vehicles eliminate parking lots and rush-hour traffic. Among the few concrete details were that Tesla&#39;s Cybercab would enter production in 2026 and sell for less than $30,000.</p><p>To achieve those goals, Tesla will have to master two formidable technical challenges: cutting the production cost of electric vehicles, and making them drive themselves without human intervention to a safety level capable of satisfying risk-averse regulators. Musk didn&#39;t give his guests at the robotaxi event evidence of progress on either score.</p><p>The most advanced version of Tesla&#39;s current driver-automation software, which it calls &#34;full-self driving (supervised),&#34; requires the attention of a human driver as a backup. Musk said Thursday that an unsupervised version of FSD would be released in California and Texas next year. The Tesla chief executive has a decadelong record of missing such deadlines, leading to skepticism from analysts.</p><p>&#34;Making the leap from where we are today to full autonomy (particularly through unsupervised vehicles with zero steering or pedals) is so gargantuan, technology-wise, that it feels overly ambitious in such a short period of time,&#34; wrote Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at car-shopping site Edmunds.</p><p>Those expecting hints about the progress of a lower-cost Tesla that does include a driving wheel and pedals were also left frustrated. The company still hasn&#39;t previewed the model, which Musk in July said would come out next year.</p><p>&#34;We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding Tesla&#39;s near-term product road map,&#34; wrote CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4588":"碎股","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2474067566","content_text":"Wall Street's early reaction to Elon Musk's robotaxi reveal? Disappointment.Shares in Tesla fell roughly 6% in premarket trading Friday following an event that was heavier on showbiz but lighter on business than investors had hoped after months of buildup. The overnight stock drop points to about a $40 billion slump in the electric-car maker's valuation at the open.Tesla on Thursday evening revealed a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals at a tightly choreographed product launch in Los Angeles.Following a strategic pivot toward robotics and autonomy this year, Musk had billed the event as Tesla's most significant since the launch of its benchmark-setting Model 3 in 2017. For investors, a move into robotaxis offers one way to justify Tesla's $763 billion market value. After a rally in the stock in anticipation of the event, Musk's company is worth almost three times as much as Toyota, the world's best-selling car maker.\"Investors we spoke to at the event thought the event was light of real numbers and timelines. These typically come at Tesla events. This one seemed focused on branding and marketing Tesla's vision,\" said Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada.In a roughly half-hour presentation, Musk painted a picture of a green, sunny future in which autonomous vehicles eliminate parking lots and rush-hour traffic. Among the few concrete details were that Tesla's Cybercab would enter production in 2026 and sell for less than $30,000.To achieve those goals, Tesla will have to master two formidable technical challenges: cutting the production cost of electric vehicles, and making them drive themselves without human intervention to a safety level capable of satisfying risk-averse regulators. Musk didn't give his guests at the robotaxi event evidence of progress on either score.The most advanced version of Tesla's current driver-automation software, which it calls \"full-self driving (supervised),\" requires the attention of a human driver as a backup. Musk said Thursday that an unsupervised version of FSD would be released in California and Texas next year. The Tesla chief executive has a decadelong record of missing such deadlines, leading to skepticism from analysts.\"Making the leap from where we are today to full autonomy (particularly through unsupervised vehicles with zero steering or pedals) is so gargantuan, technology-wise, that it feels overly ambitious in such a short period of time,\" wrote Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at car-shopping site Edmunds.Those expecting hints about the progress of a lower-cost Tesla that does include a driving wheel and pedals were also left frustrated. The company still hasn't previewed the model, which Musk in July said would come out next year.\"We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding Tesla's near-term product road map,\" wrote CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576140222331577","authorId":"3576140222331577","name":"Guavaxf30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff15ff6aa254c9130f9af922f7e2447","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576140222331577","authorIdStr":"3576140222331577"},"content":"Elon Musk does not care about them. Look at what he did to Twitter staff. Also how his existing Tesla staff are treated.","text":"Elon Musk does not care about them. Look at what he did to Twitter staff. Also how his existing Tesla staff are treated.","html":"Elon Musk does not care about them. Look at what he did to Twitter staff. Also how his existing Tesla staff are treated."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362400193802248,"gmtCreate":1729512521478,"gmtModify":1729513007774,"author":{"id":"4141547829789112","authorId":"4141547829789112","name":"Roksnana","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d45ec43d9d33b5d6cde51ffb3f2f349","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4141547829789112","authorIdStr":"4141547829789112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\"ASML's constant price target changes reek of manipulation. Lack of transparency serves personal interests.\"[Thinking]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"\"ASML's constant price target changes reek of manipulation. Lack of transparency serves personal interests.\"[Thinking]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"\"ASML's constant price target changes reek of manipulation. Lack of transparency serves personal interests.\"[Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362400193802248","repostId":"2477058250","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477058250","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1729484876,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477058250?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-21 12:27","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"ASML Holding: Share Price Is Still Lofty Despite The Most Recent 16% Plunge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477058250","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing 49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying.Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net boo","content":"<html><body><ul><li>ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing €49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying.</li><li>Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net bookings fell by 52%, and future growth is expected to slow, with 2024 revenue growth projected at only 2.33%.</li><li>ASML is still highly dependent on China and will continue to face challenges due to stricter export controls, potentially affecting the company's sales.</li><li>Valuation analysis based on management's guidance suggests that, current share price is still lofty and there is a potential downside of 13.84%.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"3885px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"5825px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Sundry Photography</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>On 15 October 2024, the share price of ASML Holding (<span>NASDAQ:ASML</span>) (OTCPK:ASMLF) plunged by 16% after information related to the company's 3Q24 results was published earlier due to a technical error<span>. During this period, the company has lost about €49.2 billion in market capitalization.</span></p> <p>Given that most of the world's semiconductor foundries are dependent on ASML, this may represent a good opportunity for investors to accumulate shares. However, based on my analysis, I believe that investors should hold their horses and not be overly excited. In this report, I will demonstrate why we should wait for the prices to further correct before starting to accumulate shares of ASML.</p> <h2>Latest Developments</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-17294098969644122.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>ASML Performance 4Q24 <span>(Earnings Presentation)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In 3Q24, total revenues surged from €6.24 billion to €7.47 billion, representing a growth of 11.90% year-on-year. During this period, the company has sold 17 more lithography systems as compared to the same period last year. However, total net bookings plunged by 52% to €2.63 billion from €5.57 billion the same period last year. Gross margin declined from 51.87% the same period last year to 50.80% but was offset declines in operating expenses; total operating income margin remain at 32.70%.</p> <p>Looking forward, the company expects 4Q24 sales to range between €8.8 billion to €9.2 billion and gross margin to deteriorate further to between 49% and 50%. Despite lower gross margin, the company expects to spend lower on R&amp;D and SG&amp;A costs, offsetting deteriorations in gross margin.</p> <h2>ASML's Growth Rate To Continue Deteriorating</h2> <p>Although developments in artificial intelligence is likely to continue providing tailwinds for demand, it seems clear that the company's growth has peaked. ASML's 4Q24 sales guidance suggests that the company will likely post a revenue of €28.2 billion, representing a growth of only 2.33% this year. The slowdown in growth is primarily due to a slower recovery in the traditional non-AI related markets.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-17294176757650776.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p>ASML Historical Revenue Growth <span>(Company Filings)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Over the past three years, we have seen an average growth of around 25% per annum. Moreover, the company expects to generate between €44 billion and €60 billion in sales by FY2030, representing an average growth of 13% per annum. It is clear that the company's growth has declined, and it is unlikely that we will continue to see an elevated growth rate of about 25%. After all, in the latest earnings call, Christophe Fouquet, Chief Executive of ASML, had said, \"without AI, the market would be very sad\".</p> <h2>'China Issue' To Continue Weighing On ASML</h2> <p>Apart from ASML's latest revenue woes, the company is also facing a lot of challenges due to export controls. The Dutch government has aligned with the United States and will prevent ASML from selling the company's more advanced machines to China; even older machines will be subjected to this regulation. The Dutch's Prime Minister, Dick Schoof, will also not allow ASML to service China's equipment when the company's license expires this year.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-1729419452676056.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>ASML's Geographical Exposure <span>(Company Filings)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>More importantly, ASML's remains highly exposed to China. In 2024, close to half of the company's revenue is attributable to China. Despite stringent export controls and a slew of new regulations, the company's biggest market is still in China. Roger Dassen, ASML's Chief Financial Officer have stated that sales in China will normalize to 20% of total revenue from about 49%.</p> <p>It is important to highlight that this is based on the current regulatory environment. If regulations further tighten, there is a strong likelihood that sales will further deteriorate, falling short of the company's projections.</p> <h2>Markets Are Still Pricing In A Premium</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-1729418423681526.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Valuation Analysis <span>(Author's Projections)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Even though the company has plunged by close to 16% since Tuesday, the current share price of €664.50 implies that the markets are extremely optimistic about the company's growth rate.</p> <p>If we assume: (1) the company's gross margin eventually reaches its target of 60% by FY2030, (2) current share price of €664.50, and (3) all other margins (e.g. SG&amp;A and R&amp;D) to maintain at its current level, a reverse valuation analysis will suggest that the market is pricing in a revenue growth of 16% per annum between FY2025 and FY2030. In other words, markets are pricing in a premium and expects the company to beat its revenue growth rate by 3% per annum for the next six years. To put it into context, markets are expecting ASML to generate €70 billion in revenues as compared to the company's guidance of €60 billion.</p> <h2>ASML Is A Cash Generator And Has A History Of Giving Back To Its Shareholders</h2> <p>Do not get me wrong, ASML has been an exceptional company that has a strong balance sheet and strong liquidity profile. Moreover, the company has stable margins and has proved to be able to effectively generate sustainable cashflows over the years. Over the past 10 years, the company has generated €35 billion in free cash flow.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-1729421353363598.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p>ASML's Historical Free Cash Flow <span>(Company Filings)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Moreover, the company has a strong history of giving back to its shareholders. Over the past five years, the company's share buyback plan has reached a cumulative share buyback of €22.80 billion. ASML has also given back about a total of 10 billion in dividends over the past five years.</p> <h2>Valuation Based On Management's Guidance Suggests Share Price Is Lofty</h2> <p>Given that the management has provided so much color, I have utilized these inputs to conduct a valuation analysis of ASML's share price. My valuation model will be based on the following inputs: (1) revenue growth of 2.33% in FY2024 and 13.41% between FY2025 to FY2030, (2) gross margins to improve from 51.29% in FY2023 to 60% by FY30, (3) other margins such as SG&amp;A and R&amp;D to maintain at current levels, and (4) WACC of 8.57% and terminal growth rate of 5%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/59780092-17294223372009742.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Valuation Analysis <span>(Author's Projections)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Based on these assumptions, which are fairly generous with a terminal growth rate of 5%, the valuation model based on discounted cashflows suggests that the company's implied share price of €572.52. Based on the current share price of €664.50, it does seem that the price of ASML is still quite lofty.</p> <h2>Closing Remarks</h2> <p>ASML's share price has declined by about 16% in the most recent sell off, indicating a 33% of decrease from the company's peak in July 2024. Given the current artificial intelligence hype train and investors' interest in semiconductor related stocks, it is not surprising that many are using this opportunity to accumulate shares.</p> <p>However, I believe that market participants are still pricing in a strong premium in ASML's shares. Using inputs from the company's management, the implied share price is 572.52, representing a potential further downside of 13.84%. Given the lack of any margin of safety, investors should not get overly excited; I believe that it will be wise for us to hold out longer before we see the value that we want to capitalize.</p> <div></div> <p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML Holding: Share Price Is Still Lofty Despite The Most Recent 16% Plunge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML Holding: Share Price Is Still Lofty Despite The Most Recent 16% Plunge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-21 12:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4727941-asml-q3-earnings-share-price-still-lofty-despite-most-recent-16-percent-plunge><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing €49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying.Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4727941-asml-q3-earnings-share-price-still-lofty-despite-most-recent-16-percent-plunge\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1200829368/image_1200829368.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4147":"半导体设备","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1734074674.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC FRANCHISE \"A\"(USD) ACC","ASMLF":"ASML Holding N.V.","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","03165":"华夏欧优股对冲","ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4727941-asml-q3-earnings-share-price-still-lofty-despite-most-recent-16-percent-plunge","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2477058250","content_text":"ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing €49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying.Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net bookings fell by 52%, and future growth is expected to slow, with 2024 revenue growth projected at only 2.33%.ASML is still highly dependent on China and will continue to face challenges due to stricter export controls, potentially affecting the company's sales.Valuation analysis based on management's guidance suggests that, current share price is still lofty and there is a potential downside of 13.84%.   Sundry Photography Introduction On 15 October 2024, the share price of ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) (OTCPK:ASMLF) plunged by 16% after information related to the company's 3Q24 results was published earlier due to a technical error. During this period, the company has lost about €49.2 billion in market capitalization. Given that most of the world's semiconductor foundries are dependent on ASML, this may represent a good opportunity for investors to accumulate shares. However, based on my analysis, I believe that investors should hold their horses and not be overly excited. In this report, I will demonstrate why we should wait for the prices to further correct before starting to accumulate shares of ASML. Latest Developments ASML Performance 4Q24 (Earnings Presentation) In 3Q24, total revenues surged from €6.24 billion to €7.47 billion, representing a growth of 11.90% year-on-year. During this period, the company has sold 17 more lithography systems as compared to the same period last year. However, total net bookings plunged by 52% to €2.63 billion from €5.57 billion the same period last year. Gross margin declined from 51.87% the same period last year to 50.80% but was offset declines in operating expenses; total operating income margin remain at 32.70%. Looking forward, the company expects 4Q24 sales to range between €8.8 billion to €9.2 billion and gross margin to deteriorate further to between 49% and 50%. Despite lower gross margin, the company expects to spend lower on R&D and SG&A costs, offsetting deteriorations in gross margin. ASML's Growth Rate To Continue Deteriorating Although developments in artificial intelligence is likely to continue providing tailwinds for demand, it seems clear that the company's growth has peaked. ASML's 4Q24 sales guidance suggests that the company will likely post a revenue of €28.2 billion, representing a growth of only 2.33% this year. The slowdown in growth is primarily due to a slower recovery in the traditional non-AI related markets.   ASML Historical Revenue Growth (Company Filings) Over the past three years, we have seen an average growth of around 25% per annum. Moreover, the company expects to generate between €44 billion and €60 billion in sales by FY2030, representing an average growth of 13% per annum. It is clear that the company's growth has declined, and it is unlikely that we will continue to see an elevated growth rate of about 25%. After all, in the latest earnings call, Christophe Fouquet, Chief Executive of ASML, had said, \"without AI, the market would be very sad\". 'China Issue' To Continue Weighing On ASML Apart from ASML's latest revenue woes, the company is also facing a lot of challenges due to export controls. The Dutch government has aligned with the United States and will prevent ASML from selling the company's more advanced machines to China; even older machines will be subjected to this regulation. The Dutch's Prime Minister, Dick Schoof, will also not allow ASML to service China's equipment when the company's license expires this year. ASML's Geographical Exposure (Company Filings) More importantly, ASML's remains highly exposed to China. In 2024, close to half of the company's revenue is attributable to China. Despite stringent export controls and a slew of new regulations, the company's biggest market is still in China. Roger Dassen, ASML's Chief Financial Officer have stated that sales in China will normalize to 20% of total revenue from about 49%. It is important to highlight that this is based on the current regulatory environment. If regulations further tighten, there is a strong likelihood that sales will further deteriorate, falling short of the company's projections. Markets Are Still Pricing In A Premium Valuation Analysis (Author's Projections) Even though the company has plunged by close to 16% since Tuesday, the current share price of €664.50 implies that the markets are extremely optimistic about the company's growth rate. If we assume: (1) the company's gross margin eventually reaches its target of 60% by FY2030, (2) current share price of €664.50, and (3) all other margins (e.g. SG&A and R&D) to maintain at its current level, a reverse valuation analysis will suggest that the market is pricing in a revenue growth of 16% per annum between FY2025 and FY2030. In other words, markets are pricing in a premium and expects the company to beat its revenue growth rate by 3% per annum for the next six years. To put it into context, markets are expecting ASML to generate €70 billion in revenues as compared to the company's guidance of €60 billion. ASML Is A Cash Generator And Has A History Of Giving Back To Its Shareholders Do not get me wrong, ASML has been an exceptional company that has a strong balance sheet and strong liquidity profile. Moreover, the company has stable margins and has proved to be able to effectively generate sustainable cashflows over the years. Over the past 10 years, the company has generated €35 billion in free cash flow.   ASML's Historical Free Cash Flow (Company Filings) Moreover, the company has a strong history of giving back to its shareholders. Over the past five years, the company's share buyback plan has reached a cumulative share buyback of €22.80 billion. ASML has also given back about a total of 10 billion in dividends over the past five years. Valuation Based On Management's Guidance Suggests Share Price Is Lofty Given that the management has provided so much color, I have utilized these inputs to conduct a valuation analysis of ASML's share price. My valuation model will be based on the following inputs: (1) revenue growth of 2.33% in FY2024 and 13.41% between FY2025 to FY2030, (2) gross margins to improve from 51.29% in FY2023 to 60% by FY30, (3) other margins such as SG&A and R&D to maintain at current levels, and (4) WACC of 8.57% and terminal growth rate of 5%. Valuation Analysis (Author's Projections) Based on these assumptions, which are fairly generous with a terminal growth rate of 5%, the valuation model based on discounted cashflows suggests that the company's implied share price of €572.52. Based on the current share price of €664.50, it does seem that the price of ASML is still quite lofty. Closing Remarks ASML's share price has declined by about 16% in the most recent sell off, indicating a 33% of decrease from the company's peak in July 2024. Given the current artificial intelligence hype train and investors' interest in semiconductor related stocks, it is not surprising that many are using this opportunity to accumulate shares. However, I believe that market participants are still pricing in a strong premium in ASML's shares. Using inputs from the company's management, the implied share price is 572.52, representing a potential further downside of 13.84%. Given the lack of any margin of safety, investors should not get overly excited; I believe that it will be wise for us to hold out longer before we see the value that we want to capitalize.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344031033483312,"gmtCreate":1725016494547,"gmtModify":1725017982183,"author":{"id":"4141547829789112","authorId":"4141547829789112","name":"Roksnana","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d45ec43d9d33b5d6cde51ffb3f2f349","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4141547829789112","authorIdStr":"4141547829789112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\"Market manipulation persists as some exploit pump and dump schemes, preying on unsuspecting investors. Transparency and accountability are crucial to protecting retail investors and maintaining a fair market.\"[Allin]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"\"Market manipulation persists as some exploit pump and dump schemes, preying on unsuspecting investors. Transparency and accountability are crucial to protecting retail investors and maintaining a fair market.\"[Allin]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"\"Market manipulation persists as some exploit pump and dump schemes, preying on unsuspecting investors. Transparency and accountability are crucial to protecting retail investors and maintaining a fair market.\"[Allin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344031033483312","repostId":"2463990784","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2463990784","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1725012738,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463990784?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-30 18:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq, S&P, Dow futures in green ahead of inflation report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463990784","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders look forward to the key inflation data slated to come later in the day. S&P 500 futures (SPX) +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) +0.7% and Dow ","content":"<html><body><p>Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders look forward to the key inflation data slated to come later in the day.</p> <p>S&amp;P 500 futures (<span>SPX</span>) <span>+0.5%</span>, Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) <span>+0.7%</span> and Dow futures (<span>INDU</span>) <span>+0.2%</span>.</p> <p>The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y<span>) was unchanged at 3.86%. The 2-year yield (</span>US2Y<span>) was flat at 3.91%.</span></p> <p>U.S. stocks on Thursday ended mixed, as an afternoon bout of selling ate into strong gains earlier, after a post-earnings drop in chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) intensified through the session and offset a boost to sentiment from data that showed a more robust expansion in the economy in the second quarter than previously estimated.</p> <p>\"Risk assets put in a decent performance over the last 24 hours, as solid US data outweighed investors’ disappointment about Nvidia’s latest results,\" Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen said.</p> <p>\"With all that data in hand, the general perception was that the economy was doing better than thought, and that a larger 50bp cut from the Federal Reserve was now less likely,\" Allen said.</p> <p>Investors are now bracing for the July core personal consumption expenditure price index report, which will land before the bell. </p> <p>The Fed's favored inflation gauge is expected to show a 0.2% M/M increase in July, the same growth rate as in June. On a Y/Y basis, that's expected to be 2.7%, up a tick from 2.6% in June. Core PCE strips out food and energy prices, which can swing significantly from month to month.</p> <p>Including food and energy, the PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% in July, up from 0.1% in June, and 2.5% Y/Y, unchanged from the prior month.</p> <p>\"Disinflation data continues today. The July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any U.S. household,\" UBS' Paul Donovan said.</p> <p>Other economic reports for today include the August Chicago PMI and the August consumer sentiment. The former is expected to come in at 45, while the latter is anticipated at 67.8.</p> </body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq, S&P, Dow futures in green ahead of inflation report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq, S&P, Dow futures in green ahead of inflation report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-30 18:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145384-sp500-nasdaq-dow-jones-outlook-stock-market-pce><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders look forward to the key inflation data slated to come later in the day. S&P 500 futures (SPX) +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) +0.7% and Dow ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145384-sp500-nasdaq-dow-jones-outlook-stock-market-pce\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/668600179/image_668600179.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","BK4527":"明星科技股","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145384-sp500-nasdaq-dow-jones-outlook-stock-market-pce","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2463990784","content_text":"Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders look forward to the key inflation data slated to come later in the day. S&P 500 futures (SPX) +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) +0.7% and Dow futures (INDU) +0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) was unchanged at 3.86%. The 2-year yield (US2Y) was flat at 3.91%. U.S. stocks on Thursday ended mixed, as an afternoon bout of selling ate into strong gains earlier, after a post-earnings drop in chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) intensified through the session and offset a boost to sentiment from data that showed a more robust expansion in the economy in the second quarter than previously estimated. \"Risk assets put in a decent performance over the last 24 hours, as solid US data outweighed investors’ disappointment about Nvidia’s latest results,\" Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen said. \"With all that data in hand, the general perception was that the economy was doing better than thought, and that a larger 50bp cut from the Federal Reserve was now less likely,\" Allen said. Investors are now bracing for the July core personal consumption expenditure price index report, which will land before the bell.  The Fed's favored inflation gauge is expected to show a 0.2% M/M increase in July, the same growth rate as in June. On a Y/Y basis, that's expected to be 2.7%, up a tick from 2.6% in June. Core PCE strips out food and energy prices, which can swing significantly from month to month. Including food and energy, the PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% in July, up from 0.1% in June, and 2.5% Y/Y, unchanged from the prior month. \"Disinflation data continues today. The July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any U.S. household,\" UBS' Paul Donovan said. Other economic reports for today include the August Chicago PMI and the August consumer sentiment. The former is expected to come in at 45, while the latter is anticipated at 67.8.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}