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Goldman’s Rubner Sees "Buy China" Trade Playing After Election

03-13

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href=\"\">[微笑]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"‌<a href=\"\">[微笑]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"‌[微笑] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353914423894024","repostId":"2470950797","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470950797","pubTimestamp":1727407153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470950797?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-27 11:19","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Goldman’s Rubner Sees \"Buy China\" Trade Playing After Election","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470950797","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, according to Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, according to Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.</p><p>US-listed China stocks extended their rally on Thursday after the nation’s Politburo announced plans for fiscal spending to stimulate consumption and rein in local government debt, as well as measures to stabilize the country’s troubled real estate market. The moves are part of a coordinated economic plan unveiled this week that includes handouts and subsidies as well as a broad policy package aimed at arresting a growth slowdown that has battered consumer confidence.</p><p>The Golden Dragon index, which is made up of companies with shares traded in the US but that conduct the majority of their business in China, jumped as much as 13% Thursday, the most intraday since March 2022. The CSI 300 Index, a gauge of Chinese onshore stocks, is up 11% in the last four sessions and headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost a decade. </p><p>But despite the rally, Rubner thinks the long-awaited recovery in Chinese equities may finally have arrived and, if so, investors should want to get in on it.</p><p>“I really think this time is different for China,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Thursday, noting that being underweight Chinese equities is the “largest consensus trade” in the global stock market. “Re-emerging markets have quickly become a favored post-US election trade for November and December,” he wrote, referring to demand for bullish call options expiring at the end of the year. </p><p>Hedge Fund Buying </p><p>Take hedge funds. Before the recent gains, they’d allocated less than 7% of their capital to Chinese equities, roughly a five-year low. Indeed, since the start of 2023, Chinese stocks remain meaningfully net sold by hedge funds in cumulative notional terms. </p><p>But they reversed course earlier this week and rushed into Chinese equities, posting the largest daily net buying since March 2021 and the second largest in the past 10 years on Tuesday, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage desk.  </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9c5d5e21e226db13f39d59b9e4d6cd8\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs Global Prime Services team\" title=\"Goldman Sachs Global Prime Services team\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"541\"/><span>Goldman Sachs Global Prime Services team</span></p><p>Mutual funds also have more room for buying. As of the end of August, they had a 5.1% allocation to Chinese equities globally, which is historically low, Rubner wrote. But the bigger boost could come from passive investors. Of the $695 billion of inflows for US-listed exchange-traded funds in 2024, only $4.9 billion has gone into Chinese ETFs. </p><p>Passive Appeal</p><p>“Chinese and emerging market assets do not benefit from passive inflows every day like the US market, but this is changing,” Rubner wrote. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ef6c1904c2f95041a7aedcd00431bfb\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs\" title=\"Goldman Sachs\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"479\"/><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p><p>The  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASHR\">X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund</a>, which tracks China domestic A shares, saw over $173 million worth of inflows on Wednesday, the most since June 2022, according to data complied by Bloomberg. And Rubner expects more to be on the way.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/35cd072ef26975e65806b12269b0a496\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs\" title=\"Goldman Sachs\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p><p>In terms of specific trades, he recommends buying the  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FXI\">iShares China Large-Cap ETF</a>  November $34/$38 call spread or the  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEM\">iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF</a>  November $48/$53 call spread. </p></body></html>","source":"bnn_bloomberg_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman’s Rubner Sees \"Buy China\" Trade Playing After Election</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman’s Rubner Sees \"Buy China\" Trade Playing After Election\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-27 11:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/goldman-s-rubner-sees-buy-china-trade-playing-after-election><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/goldman-s-rubner-sees-buy-china-trade-playing-after-election\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","GS":"高盛","09618":"京东集团-SW","YINN":"三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion","KWEB":"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares","00700":"腾讯控股","HSI":"恒生指数","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","03690":"美团-W","09888":"百度集团-SW","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/goldman-s-rubner-sees-buy-china-trade-playing-after-election","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2470950797","content_text":"Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, according to Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.US-listed China stocks extended their rally on Thursday after the nation’s Politburo announced plans for fiscal spending to stimulate consumption and rein in local government debt, as well as measures to stabilize the country’s troubled real estate market. The moves are part of a coordinated economic plan unveiled this week that includes handouts and subsidies as well as a broad policy package aimed at arresting a growth slowdown that has battered consumer confidence.The Golden Dragon index, which is made up of companies with shares traded in the US but that conduct the majority of their business in China, jumped as much as 13% Thursday, the most intraday since March 2022. The CSI 300 Index, a gauge of Chinese onshore stocks, is up 11% in the last four sessions and headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost a decade. But despite the rally, Rubner thinks the long-awaited recovery in Chinese equities may finally have arrived and, if so, investors should want to get in on it.“I really think this time is different for China,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Thursday, noting that being underweight Chinese equities is the “largest consensus trade” in the global stock market. “Re-emerging markets have quickly become a favored post-US election trade for November and December,” he wrote, referring to demand for bullish call options expiring at the end of the year. Hedge Fund Buying Take hedge funds. Before the recent gains, they’d allocated less than 7% of their capital to Chinese equities, roughly a five-year low. Indeed, since the start of 2023, Chinese stocks remain meaningfully net sold by hedge funds in cumulative notional terms. But they reversed course earlier this week and rushed into Chinese equities, posting the largest daily net buying since March 2021 and the second largest in the past 10 years on Tuesday, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage desk.  Goldman Sachs Global Prime Services teamMutual funds also have more room for buying. As of the end of August, they had a 5.1% allocation to Chinese equities globally, which is historically low, Rubner wrote. But the bigger boost could come from passive investors. Of the $695 billion of inflows for US-listed exchange-traded funds in 2024, only $4.9 billion has gone into Chinese ETFs. Passive Appeal“Chinese and emerging market assets do not benefit from passive inflows every day like the US market, but this is changing,” Rubner wrote. Goldman SachsThe  X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund, which tracks China domestic A shares, saw over $173 million worth of inflows on Wednesday, the most since June 2022, according to data complied by Bloomberg. And Rubner expects more to be on the way.Goldman SachsIn terms of specific trades, he recommends buying the  iShares China Large-Cap ETF  November $34/$38 call spread or the  iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF  November $48/$53 call spread.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283715134763232,"gmtCreate":1710305263434,"gmtModify":1710308107542,"author":{"id":"4162705591309912","authorId":"4162705591309912","name":"BSPanchal","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4162705591309912","authorIdStr":"4162705591309912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy both&nbsp;","listText":"buy both&nbsp;","text":"buy both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/283715134763232","repostId":"1143684824","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143684824","pubTimestamp":1710302400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143684824?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-13 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Vs. Nvidia Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143684824","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. has fallen behind Nvidia Corporation in the AI market, but its new chips and software developments may help it catch up.Nvidia has higher profit margins, ROA, and ROE compared to AMD.Analysts project that AMD's EPS will almost triple in the next three years, while Nvidia has already shown impressive growth but may see slower growth in the future.HRAUN/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.  has been NVIDIA Corporation's  main competitor ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2353147460\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. has fallen behind Nvidia Corporation in the AI market, but its new chips and software developments may help it catch up.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia has higher profit margins, ROA, and ROE compared to AMD.</p></li><li><p>Analysts project that AMD&#39;s EPS will almost triple in the next three years, while Nvidia has already shown impressive growth but may see slower growth in the future.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d63acebb3ce87e995d99c28f3199ef2c\" alt=\"HRAUN/E+ via Getty Images\" title=\"HRAUN/E+ via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>HRAUN/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2843714020\">Thesis Summary</h2><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) has been <strong>NVIDIA</strong> <strong>Corporation&#39;s</strong> (NVDA) main competitor for many years. However, it seems to have fallen behind in the artificial intelligence (&#34;AI&#34;) mania of the last 12 months.</p><p>Not that the stock hasn&#39;t done well, but it&#39;s definitely not done as well as Nvidia.</p><p>But does that create an opportunity? Is AMD fairly priced? And, most importantly, can it catch up to Nvidia?</p><p>In this article, I compare AMD to Nvidia stock to determine, to the best of my ability, which is the better investment.</p><h2 id=\"id_541814794\">Moat and Business</h2><p>First, we have to understand the key differences that separate Nvidia and AMD if we want to assess whether AMD can close the gap.</p><p>Nvidia has been wildly successful in the last year in selling its &#34;AI data center chips.&#34; The most powerful of these is the H100, which has become the gold standard for developing AI applications.</p><p>However, a key element to Nvidia&#39;s success also relies on the power behind CUDA, which is essentially a software platform that serves to optimize the performance of its GPUs.</p><p>It is this connection between software and hardware which gives Nvidia its moat.</p><p>While AMD also makes GPUs, they have not been adopted in AI applications, but its new chips will be specifically designed for this.</p><p>AMD is bringing out the Instinct™ MI300 series accelerators, which should be able to compete with Nvidia&#39;s products. This, in fact, led the CEO to raise the targets for its AI chips revenue from $2 to $3.5 billion.</p><p>This will come together with further developments in AMD&#39;s ROCm, which is the equivalent of Nvidia&#39;s CUDA.</p><p>While ROCm has some catching up to do, since it was launched years later, it does benefit from the fact that it is open-source, and anyone can develop applications on it.</p><blockquote><p>The additional functionality and optimizations of ROCm 6 and the growing volume of contributions from the Open Source AI Software community are enabling multiple large hyperscale and enterprise customers to rapidly bring up their most advanced large language models on AMD Instinct accelerators.</p></blockquote><p>Source: AMD Earnings Call.</p><p>Clearly, AMD has some catching up to do, but here is the thing. Everyone&#39;s rooting for them. Nvidia&#39;s clients are not happy with being stuck with its chips and its closed software. Nvidia&#39;s clients will be more than happy to diversify their investments and give AMD&#39;s chips a chance.</p><h2 id=\"id_2506001464\">Profitability</h2><p>Now, let&#39;s go ahead and compare AMD and Nvidia profitability.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d413c74954d02a80f062b07f309bc94\" alt=\"AMD profit margins (Macrotrends)\" title=\"AMD profit margins (Macrotrends)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"975\"/><span>AMD profit margins (Macrotrends)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e5c71e622b6c9e0661fef22ac8de8b9\" alt=\"NVDA profit margins (Macrotrends)\" title=\"NVDA profit margins (Macrotrends)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"966\"/><span>NVDA profit margins (Macrotrends)</span></p><p>The first is AMD&#39;s profit margins, and then we have NVDA.</p><p>Now, as we can see, even though one could say these companies are both in the same business, NVDA has always commanded higher margins, and this difference has only gotten bigger in the latest year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe69c6e7b140a0a887e236cb38de1083\" alt=\"Data Source: Seeking Alpha.\" title=\"Data Source: Seeking Alpha.\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"414\"/><span>Data Source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p>As we can see, NVDA also has a much higher ROA and ROE.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There are a couple of reasons for this. Some have pointed out that Nvidia has a higher market share, giving it more economies of scale. More recently, the high demand has also allowed Nvidia to push up its prices.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD might be able to take some market share, and in doing so, increase its margins, while also forcing NVDA to reduce its own.</p><h2 id=\"id_2870695640\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Growth</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Now, let&#39;s assess the potential growth for each company.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62f7ac850421c039c6231a8f28908ff1\" alt=\"AMD EPS estimates (SA)\" title=\"AMD EPS estimates (SA)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"431\"/><span>AMD EPS estimates (SA)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/115255ea5a7a2be25b57cd9edd54ad91\" alt=\"AMD revenue estimates (SA)\" title=\"AMD revenue estimates (SA)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"442\"/><span>AMD revenue estimates (SA)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Starting with AMD we can see that EPS is projected to almost triple in the next three years. From $2.65 in 2023 to $7.23 in 2026. It seems like analysts believe AMD might begin to take back some market share starting in 2024-25 since at that point revenues would grow almost 26%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6d4a19110c8cade5316141f922f36a8\" alt=\"NVDA EPS estimates (SA)\" title=\"NVDA EPS estimates (SA)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"442\"/><span>NVDA EPS estimates (SA)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0fe831683340272ac0d1ffdac5ba8118\" alt=\"NVDA revenue estimates (SA)\" title=\"NVDA revenue estimates (SA)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"438\"/><span>NVDA revenue estimates (SA)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meanwhile, Nvidia has already shown incredible growth in revenues and EPS, and this should continue in 2025. EPS will grow 90%, and revenues will grow 81%. However, after that, revenue growth would likely moderate to below 20%.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Based on these analyst estimates it seems like Nvidia will continue to enjoy market dominance, but AMD might start catching up late in the year and in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NVDA has more growth priced now, while AMD has more growth priced in the long term.</p><h2 id=\"id_3366889634\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Valuation</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lastly, we will look at the valuations of each of these companies.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dfae0f0ee927e8977cf4896177b0cc88\" alt=\"Data source: Seeking Alpha.\" title=\"Data source: Seeking Alpha.\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"475\"/><span>Data source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p>Now, as we can see, despite Nvidia&#39;s superior price appreciation, this seems to be quite justified given the valuation.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On TTM PE, Nvidia is cheaper than AMD, and this becomes even more pronounced when we look at forward P/E.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">With that said, both companies are similarly priced in terms of forward PEG. NVDA has a much higher P/S given its higher margins.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The biggest difference in valuation is perhaps in the Price/Book, where Nvidia&#39;s ratio is 9x that of AMD.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lastly, NVDA does have a more attractive Price/cash flow</p><h2 id=\"id_486121256\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Which Is The Better Buy?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Taking all this into account, which one seems to be the better buy? Even after its huge run-up, I&#39;d have to give the edge to Nvidia.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The company has managed to build a huge lead in GPUs, and that won&#39;t go away overnight. Even if AMD manages to catch up to Nvidia&#39;s current products, it&#39;s not like Nvidia will be sitting around with their arms crossed.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Furthermore, from a purely investing perspective, Nvidia has better profitability and still seems overall more attractively valued, especially if we take into account future growth.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yes, it&#39;s possible that AMD could surprise us, but that seems more unlikely at this point. Nvidia actually provides a better-priced investment in a higher-quality company.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Vs. Nvidia Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Vs. Nvidia Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-13 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677731-amd-vs-nvidia-stock-which-is-the-better-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. has fallen behind Nvidia Corporation in the AI market, but its new chips and software developments may help it catch up.Nvidia has higher profit margins, ROA, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677731-amd-vs-nvidia-stock-which-is-the-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677731-amd-vs-nvidia-stock-which-is-the-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1143684824","content_text":"SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. has fallen behind Nvidia Corporation in the AI market, but its new chips and software developments may help it catch up.Nvidia has higher profit margins, ROA, and ROE compared to AMD.Analysts project that AMD's EPS will almost triple in the next three years, while Nvidia has already shown impressive growth but may see slower growth in the future.HRAUN/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has been NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA) main competitor for many years. However, it seems to have fallen behind in the artificial intelligence (\"AI\") mania of the last 12 months.Not that the stock hasn't done well, but it's definitely not done as well as Nvidia.But does that create an opportunity? Is AMD fairly priced? And, most importantly, can it catch up to Nvidia?In this article, I compare AMD to Nvidia stock to determine, to the best of my ability, which is the better investment.Moat and BusinessFirst, we have to understand the key differences that separate Nvidia and AMD if we want to assess whether AMD can close the gap.Nvidia has been wildly successful in the last year in selling its \"AI data center chips.\" The most powerful of these is the H100, which has become the gold standard for developing AI applications.However, a key element to Nvidia's success also relies on the power behind CUDA, which is essentially a software platform that serves to optimize the performance of its GPUs.It is this connection between software and hardware which gives Nvidia its moat.While AMD also makes GPUs, they have not been adopted in AI applications, but its new chips will be specifically designed for this.AMD is bringing out the Instinct™ MI300 series accelerators, which should be able to compete with Nvidia's products. This, in fact, led the CEO to raise the targets for its AI chips revenue from $2 to $3.5 billion.This will come together with further developments in AMD's ROCm, which is the equivalent of Nvidia's CUDA.While ROCm has some catching up to do, since it was launched years later, it does benefit from the fact that it is open-source, and anyone can develop applications on it.The additional functionality and optimizations of ROCm 6 and the growing volume of contributions from the Open Source AI Software community are enabling multiple large hyperscale and enterprise customers to rapidly bring up their most advanced large language models on AMD Instinct accelerators.Source: AMD Earnings Call.Clearly, AMD has some catching up to do, but here is the thing. Everyone's rooting for them. Nvidia's clients are not happy with being stuck with its chips and its closed software. Nvidia's clients will be more than happy to diversify their investments and give AMD's chips a chance.ProfitabilityNow, let's go ahead and compare AMD and Nvidia profitability.AMD profit margins (Macrotrends)NVDA profit margins (Macrotrends)The first is AMD's profit margins, and then we have NVDA.Now, as we can see, even though one could say these companies are both in the same business, NVDA has always commanded higher margins, and this difference has only gotten bigger in the latest year.Data Source: Seeking Alpha.As we can see, NVDA also has a much higher ROA and ROE.There are a couple of reasons for this. Some have pointed out that Nvidia has a higher market share, giving it more economies of scale. More recently, the high demand has also allowed Nvidia to push up its prices.AMD might be able to take some market share, and in doing so, increase its margins, while also forcing NVDA to reduce its own.GrowthNow, let's assess the potential growth for each company.AMD EPS estimates (SA)AMD revenue estimates (SA)Starting with AMD we can see that EPS is projected to almost triple in the next three years. From $2.65 in 2023 to $7.23 in 2026. It seems like analysts believe AMD might begin to take back some market share starting in 2024-25 since at that point revenues would grow almost 26%.NVDA EPS estimates (SA)NVDA revenue estimates (SA)Meanwhile, Nvidia has already shown incredible growth in revenues and EPS, and this should continue in 2025. EPS will grow 90%, and revenues will grow 81%. However, after that, revenue growth would likely moderate to below 20%.Based on these analyst estimates it seems like Nvidia will continue to enjoy market dominance, but AMD might start catching up late in the year and in 2025.NVDA has more growth priced now, while AMD has more growth priced in the long term.ValuationLastly, we will look at the valuations of each of these companies.Data source: Seeking Alpha.Now, as we can see, despite Nvidia's superior price appreciation, this seems to be quite justified given the valuation.On TTM PE, Nvidia is cheaper than AMD, and this becomes even more pronounced when we look at forward P/E.With that said, both companies are similarly priced in terms of forward PEG. NVDA has a much higher P/S given its higher margins.The biggest difference in valuation is perhaps in the Price/Book, where Nvidia's ratio is 9x that of AMD.Lastly, NVDA does have a more attractive Price/cash flowWhich Is The Better Buy?Taking all this into account, which one seems to be the better buy? Even after its huge run-up, I'd have to give the edge to Nvidia.The company has managed to build a huge lead in GPUs, and that won't go away overnight. Even if AMD manages to catch up to Nvidia's current products, it's not like Nvidia will be sitting around with their arms crossed.Furthermore, from a purely investing perspective, Nvidia has better profitability and still seems overall more attractively valued, especially if we take into account future growth.Yes, it's possible that AMD could surprise us, but that seems more unlikely at this point. Nvidia actually provides a better-priced investment in a higher-quality company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353914423894024,"gmtCreate":1727412976582,"gmtModify":1727413378768,"author":{"id":"4162705591309912","authorId":"4162705591309912","name":"BSPanchal","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4162705591309912","authorIdStr":"4162705591309912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"\">[微笑]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"‌<a href=\"\">[微笑]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"‌[微笑] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353914423894024","repostId":"2470950797","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470950797","pubTimestamp":1727407153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470950797?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-27 11:19","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Goldman’s Rubner Sees \"Buy China\" Trade Playing After Election","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470950797","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, according to Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, according to Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.</p><p>US-listed China stocks extended their rally on Thursday after the nation’s Politburo announced plans for fiscal spending to stimulate consumption and rein in local government debt, as well as measures to stabilize the country’s troubled real estate market. The moves are part of a coordinated economic plan unveiled this week that includes handouts and subsidies as well as a broad policy package aimed at arresting a growth slowdown that has battered consumer confidence.</p><p>The Golden Dragon index, which is made up of companies with shares traded in the US but that conduct the majority of their business in China, jumped as much as 13% Thursday, the most intraday since March 2022. The CSI 300 Index, a gauge of Chinese onshore stocks, is up 11% in the last four sessions and headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost a decade. </p><p>But despite the rally, Rubner thinks the long-awaited recovery in Chinese equities may finally have arrived and, if so, investors should want to get in on it.</p><p>“I really think this time is different for China,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Thursday, noting that being underweight Chinese equities is the “largest consensus trade” in the global stock market. “Re-emerging markets have quickly become a favored post-US election trade for November and December,” he wrote, referring to demand for bullish call options expiring at the end of the year. </p><p>Hedge Fund Buying </p><p>Take hedge funds. Before the recent gains, they’d allocated less than 7% of their capital to Chinese equities, roughly a five-year low. Indeed, since the start of 2023, Chinese stocks remain meaningfully net sold by hedge funds in cumulative notional terms. </p><p>But they reversed course earlier this week and rushed into Chinese equities, posting the largest daily net buying since March 2021 and the second largest in the past 10 years on Tuesday, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage desk.  </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9c5d5e21e226db13f39d59b9e4d6cd8\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs Global Prime Services team\" title=\"Goldman Sachs Global Prime Services team\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"541\"/><span>Goldman Sachs Global Prime Services team</span></p><p>Mutual funds also have more room for buying. As of the end of August, they had a 5.1% allocation to Chinese equities globally, which is historically low, Rubner wrote. But the bigger boost could come from passive investors. Of the $695 billion of inflows for US-listed exchange-traded funds in 2024, only $4.9 billion has gone into Chinese ETFs. </p><p>Passive Appeal</p><p>“Chinese and emerging market assets do not benefit from passive inflows every day like the US market, but this is changing,” Rubner wrote. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ef6c1904c2f95041a7aedcd00431bfb\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs\" title=\"Goldman Sachs\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"479\"/><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p><p>The  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASHR\">X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund</a>, which tracks China domestic A shares, saw over $173 million worth of inflows on Wednesday, the most since June 2022, according to data complied by Bloomberg. And Rubner expects more to be on the way.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/35cd072ef26975e65806b12269b0a496\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs\" title=\"Goldman Sachs\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p><p>In terms of specific trades, he recommends buying the  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FXI\">iShares China Large-Cap ETF</a>  November $34/$38 call spread or the  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEM\">iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF</a>  November $48/$53 call spread. </p></body></html>","source":"bnn_bloomberg_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman’s Rubner Sees \"Buy China\" Trade Playing After Election</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman’s Rubner Sees \"Buy China\" Trade Playing After Election\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-27 11:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/goldman-s-rubner-sees-buy-china-trade-playing-after-election><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/goldman-s-rubner-sees-buy-china-trade-playing-after-election\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","GS":"高盛","09618":"京东集团-SW","YINN":"三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion","KWEB":"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares","00700":"腾讯控股","HSI":"恒生指数","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","03690":"美团-W","09888":"百度集团-SW","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/goldman-s-rubner-sees-buy-china-trade-playing-after-election","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2470950797","content_text":"Chinese stocks have been on a tear, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soaring 19% in the last four days, and the shares should be a key part of investors’ plans once the US election is over, according to Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.US-listed China stocks extended their rally on Thursday after the nation’s Politburo announced plans for fiscal spending to stimulate consumption and rein in local government debt, as well as measures to stabilize the country’s troubled real estate market. The moves are part of a coordinated economic plan unveiled this week that includes handouts and subsidies as well as a broad policy package aimed at arresting a growth slowdown that has battered consumer confidence.The Golden Dragon index, which is made up of companies with shares traded in the US but that conduct the majority of their business in China, jumped as much as 13% Thursday, the most intraday since March 2022. The CSI 300 Index, a gauge of Chinese onshore stocks, is up 11% in the last four sessions and headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost a decade. But despite the rally, Rubner thinks the long-awaited recovery in Chinese equities may finally have arrived and, if so, investors should want to get in on it.“I really think this time is different for China,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Thursday, noting that being underweight Chinese equities is the “largest consensus trade” in the global stock market. “Re-emerging markets have quickly become a favored post-US election trade for November and December,” he wrote, referring to demand for bullish call options expiring at the end of the year. Hedge Fund Buying Take hedge funds. Before the recent gains, they’d allocated less than 7% of their capital to Chinese equities, roughly a five-year low. Indeed, since the start of 2023, Chinese stocks remain meaningfully net sold by hedge funds in cumulative notional terms. But they reversed course earlier this week and rushed into Chinese equities, posting the largest daily net buying since March 2021 and the second largest in the past 10 years on Tuesday, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage desk.  Goldman Sachs Global Prime Services teamMutual funds also have more room for buying. As of the end of August, they had a 5.1% allocation to Chinese equities globally, which is historically low, Rubner wrote. But the bigger boost could come from passive investors. Of the $695 billion of inflows for US-listed exchange-traded funds in 2024, only $4.9 billion has gone into Chinese ETFs. Passive Appeal“Chinese and emerging market assets do not benefit from passive inflows every day like the US market, but this is changing,” Rubner wrote. Goldman SachsThe  X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund, which tracks China domestic A shares, saw over $173 million worth of inflows on Wednesday, the most since June 2022, according to data complied by Bloomberg. And Rubner expects more to be on the way.Goldman SachsIn terms of specific trades, he recommends buying the  iShares China Large-Cap ETF  November $34/$38 call spread or the  iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF  November $48/$53 call spread.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283715134763232,"gmtCreate":1710305263434,"gmtModify":1710308107542,"author":{"id":"4162705591309912","authorId":"4162705591309912","name":"BSPanchal","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4162705591309912","authorIdStr":"4162705591309912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy both&nbsp;","listText":"buy both&nbsp;","text":"buy both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/283715134763232","repostId":"1143684824","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}