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Robotaxi Dreams: Tesla Lands $2,600 Share Price Estimate from ARK Invest

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model on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) on Wednesday. The analyst team of Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, and Daniel Maguire set an expected value for Tesla's (TSLA) stock in 20","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>ARK Invest published its new open-source model on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) on Wednesday. The analyst team of Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, and Daniel Maguire set an expected value for Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) stock in 2029 of $2,600. The bear case price estimate for TSLA was $2,000 and the bull case price estimate was $3,100.</p><p>Crucially, Cathie Wood&#39;s firm believes that Tesla (TSLA) will launch a robotaxi service within the next two years. The probability Tesla fails to launch a robotaxi service within five years was said to be di minimis.</p><p>Looking ahead, ARK Invest estimated that nearly 90% of Tesla’s (TSLA) enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029. Electric vehicles are seen being a quarter of total sales and ~10% of Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) earnings potential, as ARK Invest believes the robotaxi business will have much higher margins.</p><p>&#34;From a modeling perspective, we previously estimated that Tesla’s take rate would be ~40-60% on average, higher than Uber’s ~20-30% take rate. This year, we fine-tuned our analysis to include the assumption that, initially, Tesla will own and operate its vehicle network, retaining all revenue per mile for the first one-to-three years. For later years, we assume that third-party companies will own and maintain the vehicle fleet, earning ~$0.20 per mile for their services, while the remainder of revenue per mile accrues to Tesla. In effect, Tesla’s take rate is ~80% on average in the final year of the model. Meanwhile, we revised our median case expectation for the start of a robotaxi service to late 2025.&#34;</p><p>Ark Invest also sees upside for Tesla (TSLA) from the release of Full Self-Driving v12, which saw Tesla (TSLA) transition to a neural network that learns from video data and directly controls the vehicle, eliminating over 300,000 lines of manual code. ARK Invest said its research indicates that Tesla (TSLA) is accumulating data at ~110X the rate of Waymo (GOOG).</p><p>Looking beyond five years, ARK Invest&#39;s research suggests that generalizable humanoid robots represent a ~$24 trillion global revenue opportunity at scale. That is seen setting up Tesla (TSLA) to potentially capture a significant share of the multi-trillion-dollar market if it chooses to sell Optimus externally.</p><p>Shares of Tesla (TSLA) were up 4% to $177.12 in early trading on Wednesday. ARK&#39;s expected value for Tesla (TSLA) implies a 1,300% gain from the current price.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da8084b8f568c04ea9fc6fbef3f6f8bd\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"389\"/></p><p>Tesla (TSLA) is the top holding in the ARK Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ) and the fourth biggest holding in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKW).</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robotaxi Dreams: Tesla Lands $2,600 Share Price Estimate from ARK Invest</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobotaxi Dreams: Tesla Lands $2,600 Share Price Estimate from ARK Invest\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-12 23:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115205-robotaxi-dreams-tesla-lands-2600-share-price-estimate-from-ark-invest><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ARK Invest published its new open-source model on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) on Wednesday. The analyst team of Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, and Daniel Maguire set an expected value for Tesla's (TSLA) stock in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115205-robotaxi-dreams-tesla-lands-2600-share-price-estimate-from-ark-invest\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4566":"资本集团","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115205-robotaxi-dreams-tesla-lands-2600-share-price-estimate-from-ark-invest","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2442563582","content_text":"ARK Invest published its new open-source model on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) on Wednesday. The analyst team of Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, and Daniel Maguire set an expected value for Tesla's (TSLA) stock in 2029 of $2,600. The bear case price estimate for TSLA was $2,000 and the bull case price estimate was $3,100.Crucially, Cathie Wood's firm believes that Tesla (TSLA) will launch a robotaxi service within the next two years. The probability Tesla fails to launch a robotaxi service within five years was said to be di minimis.Looking ahead, ARK Invest estimated that nearly 90% of Tesla’s (TSLA) enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029. Electric vehicles are seen being a quarter of total sales and ~10% of Tesla's (TSLA) earnings potential, as ARK Invest believes the robotaxi business will have much higher margins.\"From a modeling perspective, we previously estimated that Tesla’s take rate would be ~40-60% on average, higher than Uber’s ~20-30% take rate. This year, we fine-tuned our analysis to include the assumption that, initially, Tesla will own and operate its vehicle network, retaining all revenue per mile for the first one-to-three years. For later years, we assume that third-party companies will own and maintain the vehicle fleet, earning ~$0.20 per mile for their services, while the remainder of revenue per mile accrues to Tesla. In effect, Tesla’s take rate is ~80% on average in the final year of the model. Meanwhile, we revised our median case expectation for the start of a robotaxi service to late 2025.\"Ark Invest also sees upside for Tesla (TSLA) from the release of Full Self-Driving v12, which saw Tesla (TSLA) transition to a neural network that learns from video data and directly controls the vehicle, eliminating over 300,000 lines of manual code. ARK Invest said its research indicates that Tesla (TSLA) is accumulating data at ~110X the rate of Waymo (GOOG).Looking beyond five years, ARK Invest's research suggests that generalizable humanoid robots represent a ~$24 trillion global revenue opportunity at scale. That is seen setting up Tesla (TSLA) to potentially capture a significant share of the multi-trillion-dollar market if it chooses to sell Optimus externally.Shares of Tesla (TSLA) were up 4% to $177.12 in early trading on Wednesday. ARK's expected value for Tesla (TSLA) implies a 1,300% gain from the current price.Tesla (TSLA) is the top holding in the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ) and the fourth biggest holding in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKW).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316153818628312,"gmtCreate":1718215701151,"gmtModify":1718215704201,"author":{"id":"4163022533605942","authorId":"4163022533605942","name":"Dema Adi Pratama","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4163022533605942","authorIdStr":"4163022533605942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> cbbccibxzjnbvhj","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> cbbccibxzjnbvhj","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ cbbccibxzjnbvhj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316153818628312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318761110757520,"gmtCreate":1718836058300,"gmtModify":1718958084409,"author":{"id":"4163022533605942","authorId":"4163022533605942","name":"Dema Adi Pratama","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4163022533605942","authorIdStr":"4163022533605942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/318761110757520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318760101773352,"gmtCreate":1718836053430,"gmtModify":1718958084493,"author":{"id":"4163022533605942","authorId":"4163022533605942","name":"Dema Adi Pratama","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4163022533605942","authorIdStr":"4163022533605942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/318760101773352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316411745214800,"gmtCreate":1718276691638,"gmtModify":1718958222274,"author":{"id":"4163022533605942","authorId":"4163022533605942","name":"Dema Adi Pratama","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4163022533605942","authorIdStr":"4163022533605942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316411745214800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316153756201016,"gmtCreate":1718215685034,"gmtModify":1718215688116,"author":{"id":"4163022533605942","authorId":"4163022533605942","name":"Dema Adi Pratama","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4163022533605942","authorIdStr":"4163022533605942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> vjkjssicds","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> vjkjssicds","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ vjkjssicds","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316153756201016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}