OngJH personal page - To The Moon

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07-16

$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ All pump in money for trump to cash out and fund his lobby, genius

06-28

ATH Wait for next year, the chance to come or dump

Sorry, the original content has been removed

07-03

He let you know he trimmed to make everyone panic and jump ship, so as to lower the price for him to enter again. How futile.

Why This Fund Manager Trimmed His Nvidia Position - and Has a Warning About AI

07-11

Please post accurate not just rise 4% thats it, it still moving.

MicroStrategy Rises After It Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split

07-01

Why not say 20 years 30 years 40 years, so shallow just making the word counts. High school essay. 10 years later will just rebuff as speculation. Eating the essay soon?

Microsoft: Currently Overvalued, But It's Set To Be A Potential Outperformer Throughout 2033

06-15

Greed revealed

Sorry, the original content has been removed

10-28

Then whats your problem, create more problem?

Nvidia's Stock May Pose A Systemic Risk To The Market

10-10

Gold class bunglow come on please be more accurate.

Singapore Mansion on Sale for Record $236 Million, BT Reports

06-15

Low balled by Apple

OpenAI CEO Says Company Could Become Benefit Corporation - The Information

06-11

They try to make it cheap so they can buy more, market manipulation at best

Nvidia's Stock Falls 2% After the 10-for-1 Stock Split Effective; AMD Falls 4% as Morgan Stanley Slashes Rating

10-14

Repeat same things for every stock just to stay relevant.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

09-11

So sad the a first world country making themselves more lazy. Invest more in education and nutrition and not drugs.

Novo Nordisk Obesity Drug Works for Kids as Young as 6, Study Finds

08-27

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ everyone try to make it cheap before the Moon

06-13

Dont put apple together with nvidia. One Is self made, other is buy and self brand.

Buy Apple Stock, but Not for the Reason You Think

06-13

Say buy then say dont buy, so write something to tell you that not i say buy but also not i say dont buy when it moon.

Is Nvidia Stock a Buy After the 10-for-1 Stock Split?

06-10

Reuters love to repeats others' reports

Sorry, the original content has been removed

05-27

Repeating paragraph, sound like in school making the word count.

Singapore Insurer’s Holders Seeking Better Offer From OCBC

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":1,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":364874473902272,"gmtCreate":1730090922973,"gmtModify":1730090926762,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then whats your problem, create more problem?","listText":"Then whats your problem, create more problem?","text":"Then whats your problem, create more problem?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364874473902272","repostId":"2478154039","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478154039","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1730087716,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478154039?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-28 11:55","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock May Pose A Systemic Risk To The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478154039","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia's stock has significantly impacted the Bloomberg 500, a proxy for the S&P 500 contributing 25% of gains this year and 75% since October 7, despite declining trading volume.Nvidia's volatility a","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Nvidia&#39;s stock has significantly impacted the Bloomberg 500, a proxy for the S&amp;P 500 contributing 25% of gains this year and 75% since October 7, despite declining trading volume.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia&#39;s volatility and beta have surged, making it more sensitive to market changes and increasing its influence due to its larger market cap.</p></li><li><p>The options market, particularly weekly call options, appears to be driving Nvidia&#39;s stock price, raising concerns about systemic market risks.</p></li><li><p>A shift in Nvidia&#39;s fortunes could affect the entire market, especially indexes heavily exposed to Nvidia, highlighting potential vulnerabilities.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bc321a9f2117cfb23759d73e99fc938f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s (NVDA) stock may pose a systemic risk to the broader stock market.</p><p>This year alone, Nvidia accounts for 25% of the gains in the Bloomberg 500, a tracking proxy for the S&amp;P 500, and 75% of gains since October 7. The more recent gains come when the stock&#39;s actual trading volume declines while options trading volume surges.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s outsized impact on the market is undeniable. The stock nearly tripled this year alone and contributed almost 93 points of the 372 points to the Bloomberg 500 index.</p><p>Compared to Apple (AAPL), the second most significant contributor, having added just 25 points to the index, or just 6.5%. Said another way, if Nvidia gains were not made, the Bloomberg 500 would have gained only 279 points on the year, or 16.2%, instead of the current gains of 21.6%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e55c66cf9e8acd33cef20ed4ad7c9d87\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Rising Beta and Volatility</h2><p>Volatility in Nvidia stock compared to that of the S&amp;P 500 has increased dramatically, surging to 2.4. This outpaces other MAG7 stocks like Tesla (TSLA) (2.0) and Meta (META) (1.7), underscoring its increased market sensitivity.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8bb2516a0cbe93b671763e714dbb5b3f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p>To be fair, Nvidia has always had a higher beta than the other names, but it wasn&#39;t always a company with among the largest market caps, either. In fact, at just the start of the year, Nvidia&#39;s market cap was $1.2 trillion, versus nearly $3.5 trillion today. Given that the S&amp;P 500 is a market cap weight index, its impacts on the overall market are much greater today than they have been in the past.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/302a330c4f73285423b5501d506b082e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Declining Stock Volume, Surging Options</h2><p>Perhaps more interesting is that stock volume has steadily declined over the past several weeks. The 20-day average volume levels fell from around 386 million on July 1 to just 253 million currently, which seems like a significant decline in overall average trading volume.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5cd7a96de9fa15db93aa44e54d186cd8\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>More interestingly, despite the decline in overall trading volumes, options trading volume has remained fairly consistent. The daily options volume is mostly call volume, which has steadily traded around 3 million call contracts per day versus about 1.6 million put contracts per day. The put-to-call ratio has easily favored the calls since the beginning of July.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83398330a71d7e0697e7c3bc9ff52885\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>The troubling part is that the majority of the options volume occurs on a daily basis in the weekly options for Nvidia. The most heavily traded call options, specifically those with the shortest number of days until expiration, are the most heavily traded. The patterns in the call volume appear to align with the stock price.</p><p>For example, the weekly options expiring on October 11 saw the stock trading in a range of roughly $125 to $136. The shares started the week around $125 and steadily climbed throughout the week until reaching $135 by Thursday afternoon and stalling out.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720dac79b4efb218623dd91227e4da00\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>That week shows how the Nvidia puts and call options for expiration on October 11 saw their heaviest trading volumes migrate throughout the week to the highest strike prices that corresponded with the stock price moving higher.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/149efba5bf506e528c3aac3f776ea8be\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>The week of October 18&#39;s expiration saw the shares traded as low as approximately $129 to $138. But this week, the shares jumped by nearly 3.5% to start the trading week, only to fall by as much as 7% mid-week and recover all those losses by the end of the week.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d7b7d586998cddb8732c797a4ac5e5c3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Again, we see how the option volumes correspond to the stock&#39;s price action. More interestingly, on October 15, the call volume subsided below $130 as the put volume rose. The call volume recovered on Wednesday, and by Thursday and Friday, the call volume was the heaviest at the $140 and $139 strike prices.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1cbd7a0e79b9784bfe80724acfbafb5b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>This past week which was for expiration on October 25, the stock price traded in a range of approximately $137 to $144, with shares rising on Monday and Tuesday, falling on Wednesday and Thursday, and rising again on Friday.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/778f5c43c7eb12152d4be297a6e42474\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Again, the options volume tracks stock movement. Puts got more active on Wednesday when the stock price was falling, with the heavier volumes shifting higher throughout the week back to the calls.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c6bc22ef1fdb64902a66aba637e098ee\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>The thing is that the weekly call volumes in Nvidia account for a vast majority of the total daily options volume trading. On October 17, about 3.1 million total call contracts were traded. The most active weekly call options on that day were the October 18 $140 calls with a volume of 481,000 contracts, while the $139 calls traded about 221,000 contracts, and the $138 and $141 strikes traded around 150,000 contracts each. That means that out of 3.1 million call contracts traded, 1.0 million of them traded in a range of $3 strike price for the weekly expiration. More importantly, total weekly contracts on that day-traded between $120 and $148 equalled more than 1.6 million contracts.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4187f867e9375b93a4ae29ee587ac17\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>On October 14, it wasn&#39;t much different even though the call volume was just 2.2 million. That day, 1.0 million contracts traded for the weekly options, and the $140 calls traded nearly 333,000 contracts. This pattern continues through the three-week period, with the weekly options accounting for the vast majority of the overall call volume for the stock, while the most active contract in the calls options migrating with the strike price.</p><p>Perhaps more interesting is that this occurred during a time when the stock price rose by more than 13% and its 20-day average volume fell from 291 million shares per day to 253 million shares per day, with a clear trend lower.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa617de20f4ac3dae1421f51d27ec63a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Systemic Market Risks</h2><p>It may not seem like a big deal on the surface, but from 10/7 until 10/26, the Bloomberg 500 has gained 1.08%, and Nvidia has accounted for 75% of those gains, accounting for 16.7 of the 22.3 points. Without Nvidia, the index would be flat.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/16bdf7eef113e3cecd21e7fa31a1688e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>The problem, of course, is whether or not the options market is the driving force behind Nvidia stock. If that has become the case, and Nvidia stock is the driving force behind a large portion of the gains in the stock market, then really, the options trading activity in Nvidia has become the driving force of the stock market, or at least the market indexes that are determined by Nvidia&#39;s changes in market cap.</p><p>The takeaway is that the stock market may not be what it seems, and a change in Nvidia&#39;s fortune may change the entire market&#39;s fortune. Indexes with heavy exposure to Nvidia are at the most significant risk.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock May Pose A Systemic Risk To The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock May Pose A Systemic Risk To The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-28 11:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729922-nvidia-stock-may-pose-systemic-risk-to-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia's stock has significantly impacted the Bloomberg 500, a proxy for the S&P 500 contributing 25% of gains this year and 75% since October 7, despite declining trading volume.Nvidia's volatility ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729922-nvidia-stock-may-pose-systemic-risk-to-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729922-nvidia-stock-may-pose-systemic-risk-to-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478154039","content_text":"Nvidia's stock has significantly impacted the Bloomberg 500, a proxy for the S&P 500 contributing 25% of gains this year and 75% since October 7, despite declining trading volume.Nvidia's volatility and beta have surged, making it more sensitive to market changes and increasing its influence due to its larger market cap.The options market, particularly weekly call options, appears to be driving Nvidia's stock price, raising concerns about systemic market risks.A shift in Nvidia's fortunes could affect the entire market, especially indexes heavily exposed to Nvidia, highlighting potential vulnerabilities.Nvidia's (NVDA) stock may pose a systemic risk to the broader stock market.This year alone, Nvidia accounts for 25% of the gains in the Bloomberg 500, a tracking proxy for the S&P 500, and 75% of gains since October 7. The more recent gains come when the stock's actual trading volume declines while options trading volume surges.Nvidia's outsized impact on the market is undeniable. The stock nearly tripled this year alone and contributed almost 93 points of the 372 points to the Bloomberg 500 index.Compared to Apple (AAPL), the second most significant contributor, having added just 25 points to the index, or just 6.5%. Said another way, if Nvidia gains were not made, the Bloomberg 500 would have gained only 279 points on the year, or 16.2%, instead of the current gains of 21.6%.Rising Beta and VolatilityVolatility in Nvidia stock compared to that of the S&P 500 has increased dramatically, surging to 2.4. This outpaces other MAG7 stocks like Tesla (TSLA) (2.0) and Meta (META) (1.7), underscoring its increased market sensitivity.To be fair, Nvidia has always had a higher beta than the other names, but it wasn't always a company with among the largest market caps, either. In fact, at just the start of the year, Nvidia's market cap was $1.2 trillion, versus nearly $3.5 trillion today. Given that the S&P 500 is a market cap weight index, its impacts on the overall market are much greater today than they have been in the past.Declining Stock Volume, Surging OptionsPerhaps more interesting is that stock volume has steadily declined over the past several weeks. The 20-day average volume levels fell from around 386 million on July 1 to just 253 million currently, which seems like a significant decline in overall average trading volume.More interestingly, despite the decline in overall trading volumes, options trading volume has remained fairly consistent. The daily options volume is mostly call volume, which has steadily traded around 3 million call contracts per day versus about 1.6 million put contracts per day. The put-to-call ratio has easily favored the calls since the beginning of July.The troubling part is that the majority of the options volume occurs on a daily basis in the weekly options for Nvidia. The most heavily traded call options, specifically those with the shortest number of days until expiration, are the most heavily traded. The patterns in the call volume appear to align with the stock price.For example, the weekly options expiring on October 11 saw the stock trading in a range of roughly $125 to $136. The shares started the week around $125 and steadily climbed throughout the week until reaching $135 by Thursday afternoon and stalling out.That week shows how the Nvidia puts and call options for expiration on October 11 saw their heaviest trading volumes migrate throughout the week to the highest strike prices that corresponded with the stock price moving higher.The week of October 18's expiration saw the shares traded as low as approximately $129 to $138. But this week, the shares jumped by nearly 3.5% to start the trading week, only to fall by as much as 7% mid-week and recover all those losses by the end of the week.Again, we see how the option volumes correspond to the stock's price action. More interestingly, on October 15, the call volume subsided below $130 as the put volume rose. The call volume recovered on Wednesday, and by Thursday and Friday, the call volume was the heaviest at the $140 and $139 strike prices.This past week which was for expiration on October 25, the stock price traded in a range of approximately $137 to $144, with shares rising on Monday and Tuesday, falling on Wednesday and Thursday, and rising again on Friday.Again, the options volume tracks stock movement. Puts got more active on Wednesday when the stock price was falling, with the heavier volumes shifting higher throughout the week back to the calls.The thing is that the weekly call volumes in Nvidia account for a vast majority of the total daily options volume trading. On October 17, about 3.1 million total call contracts were traded. The most active weekly call options on that day were the October 18 $140 calls with a volume of 481,000 contracts, while the $139 calls traded about 221,000 contracts, and the $138 and $141 strikes traded around 150,000 contracts each. That means that out of 3.1 million call contracts traded, 1.0 million of them traded in a range of $3 strike price for the weekly expiration. More importantly, total weekly contracts on that day-traded between $120 and $148 equalled more than 1.6 million contracts.On October 14, it wasn't much different even though the call volume was just 2.2 million. That day, 1.0 million contracts traded for the weekly options, and the $140 calls traded nearly 333,000 contracts. This pattern continues through the three-week period, with the weekly options accounting for the vast majority of the overall call volume for the stock, while the most active contract in the calls options migrating with the strike price.Perhaps more interesting is that this occurred during a time when the stock price rose by more than 13% and its 20-day average volume fell from 291 million shares per day to 253 million shares per day, with a clear trend lower.Systemic Market RisksIt may not seem like a big deal on the surface, but from 10/7 until 10/26, the Bloomberg 500 has gained 1.08%, and Nvidia has accounted for 75% of those gains, accounting for 16.7 of the 22.3 points. Without Nvidia, the index would be flat.The problem, of course, is whether or not the options market is the driving force behind Nvidia stock. If that has become the case, and Nvidia stock is the driving force behind a large portion of the gains in the stock market, then really, the options trading activity in Nvidia has become the driving force of the stock market, or at least the market indexes that are determined by Nvidia's changes in market cap.The takeaway is that the stock market may not be what it seems, and a change in Nvidia's fortune may change the entire market's fortune. Indexes with heavy exposure to Nvidia are at the most significant risk.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359967585321120,"gmtCreate":1728890613659,"gmtModify":1728890617447,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Repeat same things for every stock just to stay relevant.","listText":"Repeat same things for every stock just to stay relevant.","text":"Repeat same things for every stock just to stay relevant.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359967585321120","repostId":"2475499088","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2475499088","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1728814500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2475499088?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-13 18:15","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"The Biggest Problem With Nvidia's Stock That Everyone Is Missing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2475499088","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia's high valuation faces risk as growth slows, similar to Tesla's past stock performance despite strong revenue growth.The stock's sales multiple is contracting due to slowing sales growth, impac","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Nvidia's high valuation faces risk as growth slows, similar to Tesla's past stock performance despite strong revenue growth.</li><li>The stock's sales multiple is contracting due to slowing sales growth, impacting Nvidia's ability to maintain its high market cap.</li><li>Analysts' price targets may be unrealistic without either multiple expansion or significant revenue upgrades, which seems unlikely given current trends.</li><li>Future stock performance hinges on Nvidia exceeding lofty expectations amid slowing growth, making current valuations challenging to justify.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>BING-JHEN HONG</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While Nvidia (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) remains all the rage these days, with investors hoping to see continued strong growth and soaring revenue with the release of its news Blackwell GPU, most investors forget the most critical piece of a stock<span> price: what the market is willing to pay for it.</span></p> <p>Tesla (TSLA) is a perfect example. Despite massive revenue growth, its stock price has fallen sharply from its peak because its growth rate slowed. This led to lower valuations as the market became less willing to pay high multiples.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/12/26750043-17287451199564283.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>High Valuation Faces Slowing Growth</h2> <p>Nvidia faces a similar risk as the production cycle matures. Because the market has assigned such a high valuation to the stock, it is highly probable that, over time, growth slows the sales multiple contracts.</p> <p>Many investors today tend to think that things like fundamentals do not matter. On a day-to-day basis, they do not. But over more extended time frames, they do tend to matter. Tesla has been a prime example of this, and Nvidia could face a similar fate.</p> <h2>Revenue Is Just A Number</h2> <p>The expected revenue outlook isn't currently driving the stock price. Plenty of companies in the S&amp;P 500 are projected to have revenue of about $200 billion per year, yet not all have a roughly $3 trillion market cap.</p> <p>Ultimately, what makes Nvidia worth $3 trillion is the amount investors are willing to pay for that revenue—currently, based on sales estimates over the next twelve months, the stock trades at roughly 20 times sales. This multiple is lower than what investors were willing to pay in August when it was almost 22, and June when it was around 24. So, one reason the stock hasn't advanced since June despite some positive news and hopes of higher revenue growth is that the sales multiple is starting to contract.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/12/26750043-17287420509282055.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>The Growth Rate Drives The Valuation</h2> <p>The sales multiple is starting to contract because the sales growth rate appears to be slowing. We have seen this time and time again in this stock over time. It happened in 2018 and 2021, even going back to the mid-2000s. Historically, when the sales growth rate has increased, the price-to-sales multiple has expanded, and when the growth rate slows, the multiple contracts.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/12/26750043-17287423272983592.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Based on current analysts' estimates, growth is expected to slow dramatically in the coming quarters, which would likely suggest that sales multiples will continue to contract over time. Therefore, even if the company reaches all of the targets that analysts have laid out for futures and sales estimates are active, the stock price may not only not rise but could even decline.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/12/26750043-1728742440154051.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The revenue growth rate must accelerate for the stock price to continue rising. This will allow the multiple to grow again and, more importantly, drive higher revenue targets. But what has been happening is that revenue revisions on a rolling 30-day basis have been seeing positive revisions slow, and as a result, the growth rate in those revisions is falling.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/12/26750043-17287429848378944.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>More importantly, the stock price fluctuates with the rolling 30-day sales estimates changes. The sales multiple is falling because the change in those sales estimates is slowing. Despite the positive revisions, the stock price has been moving sideways because the positive revisions aren't enough to lift the growth rate presently.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/12/26750043-172874318210379.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>However, as we continue to move forward, sales growth slows further, and the revisions potentially become smaller simply due to the law of large numbers; the rising sales estimates will no longer offset the contraction in the multiple.</p> <h2>Analysts Expectations Seem Misaligned</h2> <p>Analysts have a 12-month price target on the stock of about $148 per share, an increase in value of about 10% of its current price, implying that the stock's market cap will rise to around $3.6 trillion from its current $3.3 trillion. However, analysts estimate show revenue rising to around $164 billion, but at its current sales multiple of 20.2, to reach that valuation, the multiple would need to expand to around 22, or the company would need revenue to climb to $178 billion, or about 9% higher than current estimates.</p> <p>With this price target, it isn't clear if analysts are expecting the multiple to expand or forecast revenue upgrades.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/12/26750043-17287465557996092.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>It is possible that there could be an upside to analysts' current revenue estimates. After all, Nvidia has consistently beaten analysts' forecasts over the past number of quarters and then raised future guidance. But even the beat rate has been slowing in recent quarters, which is something else that will affect future valuations.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/12/26750043-1728745881284706.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Plus, with a slowing growth rate, it isn't clear that the price-to-sales multiple should be expanding now; the more likely case is that it should be contracting. For the stock to achieve the path analysts have laid out, Nvidia must exceed those estimates.</p> <p>It is also noticeable that shifts in valuation occur around earnings releases, which again is a sign that the market is using the company's guidance and results to plot a path for its projected growth rate. That would mean the next opportunity for a change in the stock's valuation may come in November. If the beat rate were to slow again, and revisions that followed resulted in a lower revision rate, it would strengthen the case for a lower multiple on the stock.</p> <p>It is quite possible that even if the company achieves all of the lofty expectations that have been placed on it due to its recent success, the stock may struggle to rise from its current levels. Not because it has fallen short or because the business isn't good, but simply because the growth rate is slowing from a very high level, resulting in a lower valuation.</p> <p>This means that to be a buyer of Nvidia at current valuations implies that you think the company will be able to meet expectations and, more importantly, exceed them.</p> <div></div> <p>It is not an easy game.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biggest Problem With Nvidia's Stock That Everyone Is Missing</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biggest Problem With Nvidia's Stock That Everyone Is Missing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-13 18:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726425-nvidia-stock-biggest-problem-everyone-missing><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia's high valuation faces risk as growth slows, similar to Tesla's past stock performance despite strong revenue growth.The stock's sales multiple is contracting due to slowing sales growth, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726425-nvidia-stock-biggest-problem-everyone-missing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) 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Acc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726425-nvidia-stock-biggest-problem-everyone-missing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2475499088","content_text":"Nvidia's high valuation faces risk as growth slows, similar to Tesla's past stock performance despite strong revenue growth.The stock's sales multiple is contracting due to slowing sales growth, impacting Nvidia's ability to maintain its high market cap.Analysts' price targets may be unrealistic without either multiple expansion or significant revenue upgrades, which seems unlikely given current trends.Future stock performance hinges on Nvidia exceeding lofty expectations amid slowing growth, making current valuations challenging to justify.   BING-JHEN HONG While Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) remains all the rage these days, with investors hoping to see continued strong growth and soaring revenue with the release of its news Blackwell GPU, most investors forget the most critical piece of a stock price: what the market is willing to pay for it. Tesla (TSLA) is a perfect example. Despite massive revenue growth, its stock price has fallen sharply from its peak because its growth rate slowed. This led to lower valuations as the market became less willing to pay high multiples.   Bloomberg High Valuation Faces Slowing Growth Nvidia faces a similar risk as the production cycle matures. Because the market has assigned such a high valuation to the stock, it is highly probable that, over time, growth slows the sales multiple contracts. Many investors today tend to think that things like fundamentals do not matter. On a day-to-day basis, they do not. But over more extended time frames, they do tend to matter. Tesla has been a prime example of this, and Nvidia could face a similar fate. Revenue Is Just A Number The expected revenue outlook isn't currently driving the stock price. Plenty of companies in the S&P 500 are projected to have revenue of about $200 billion per year, yet not all have a roughly $3 trillion market cap. Ultimately, what makes Nvidia worth $3 trillion is the amount investors are willing to pay for that revenue—currently, based on sales estimates over the next twelve months, the stock trades at roughly 20 times sales. This multiple is lower than what investors were willing to pay in August when it was almost 22, and June when it was around 24. So, one reason the stock hasn't advanced since June despite some positive news and hopes of higher revenue growth is that the sales multiple is starting to contract.   Bloomberg The Growth Rate Drives The Valuation The sales multiple is starting to contract because the sales growth rate appears to be slowing. We have seen this time and time again in this stock over time. It happened in 2018 and 2021, even going back to the mid-2000s. Historically, when the sales growth rate has increased, the price-to-sales multiple has expanded, and when the growth rate slows, the multiple contracts.   Bloomberg Based on current analysts' estimates, growth is expected to slow dramatically in the coming quarters, which would likely suggest that sales multiples will continue to contract over time. Therefore, even if the company reaches all of the targets that analysts have laid out for futures and sales estimates are active, the stock price may not only not rise but could even decline.   Bloomberg The revenue growth rate must accelerate for the stock price to continue rising. This will allow the multiple to grow again and, more importantly, drive higher revenue targets. But what has been happening is that revenue revisions on a rolling 30-day basis have been seeing positive revisions slow, and as a result, the growth rate in those revisions is falling.   Bloomberg More importantly, the stock price fluctuates with the rolling 30-day sales estimates changes. The sales multiple is falling because the change in those sales estimates is slowing. Despite the positive revisions, the stock price has been moving sideways because the positive revisions aren't enough to lift the growth rate presently.   Bloomberg However, as we continue to move forward, sales growth slows further, and the revisions potentially become smaller simply due to the law of large numbers; the rising sales estimates will no longer offset the contraction in the multiple. Analysts Expectations Seem Misaligned Analysts have a 12-month price target on the stock of about $148 per share, an increase in value of about 10% of its current price, implying that the stock's market cap will rise to around $3.6 trillion from its current $3.3 trillion. However, analysts estimate show revenue rising to around $164 billion, but at its current sales multiple of 20.2, to reach that valuation, the multiple would need to expand to around 22, or the company would need revenue to climb to $178 billion, or about 9% higher than current estimates. With this price target, it isn't clear if analysts are expecting the multiple to expand or forecast revenue upgrades.   Bloomberg It is possible that there could be an upside to analysts' current revenue estimates. After all, Nvidia has consistently beaten analysts' forecasts over the past number of quarters and then raised future guidance. But even the beat rate has been slowing in recent quarters, which is something else that will affect future valuations.   Bloomberg Plus, with a slowing growth rate, it isn't clear that the price-to-sales multiple should be expanding now; the more likely case is that it should be contracting. For the stock to achieve the path analysts have laid out, Nvidia must exceed those estimates. It is also noticeable that shifts in valuation occur around earnings releases, which again is a sign that the market is using the company's guidance and results to plot a path for its projected growth rate. That would mean the next opportunity for a change in the stock's valuation may come in November. If the beat rate were to slow again, and revisions that followed resulted in a lower revision rate, it would strengthen the case for a lower multiple on the stock. It is quite possible that even if the company achieves all of the lofty expectations that have been placed on it due to its recent success, the stock may struggle to rise from its current levels. Not because it has fallen short or because the business isn't good, but simply because the growth rate is slowing from a very high level, resulting in a lower valuation. This means that to be a buyer of Nvidia at current valuations implies that you think the company will be able to meet expectations and, more importantly, exceed them.  It is not an easy game.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358389285642368,"gmtCreate":1728517805348,"gmtModify":1728517809185,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gold class bunglow come on please be more accurate.","listText":"Gold class bunglow come on please be more accurate.","text":"Gold class bunglow come on please be more accurate.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358389285642368","repostId":"1109683617","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1109683617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1728517200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109683617?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-10 07:40","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Mansion on Sale for Record $236 Million, BT Reports","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109683617","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A luxury mansion in Singapore’s most exclusive neighborhood is being put on the market for S$308 million , according to the Business Times.If met, the asking price for the so-called “good class bungalow” at Nassim Road would make it the biggest transaction in absolute price for such assets, the report said.The property, with a total land area of more than 58,000 square feet, is owned by Hong Fok Corp. Ltd. joint chief executive Cheong Pin Chuan and his wife. It was previously up for sale at a pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A luxury mansion in Singapore’s most exclusive neighborhood is being put on the market for S$308 million ($236 million), according to the Business Times.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If met, the asking price for the so-called “good class bungalow” at Nassim Road would make it the biggest transaction in absolute price for such assets, the report said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The property, with a total land area of more than 58,000 square feet, is owned by Hong Fok Corp. Ltd. joint chief executive Cheong Pin Chuan and his wife. It was previously up for sale at a price tag of S$175 million in 2019.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Mansion on Sale for Record $236 Million, BT Reports</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Mansion on Sale for Record $236 Million, BT Reports\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-10 07:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/singapore-mansion-on-sale-for-record-236-million-bt-reports?srnd=homepage-americas><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A luxury mansion in Singapore’s most exclusive neighborhood is being put on the market for S$308 million ($236 million), according to the Business Times.If met, the asking price for the so-called “...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/singapore-mansion-on-sale-for-record-236-million-bt-reports?srnd=homepage-americas\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"H30.SI":"鸿福实业"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/singapore-mansion-on-sale-for-record-236-million-bt-reports?srnd=homepage-americas","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109683617","content_text":"A luxury mansion in Singapore’s most exclusive neighborhood is being put on the market for S$308 million ($236 million), according to the Business Times.If met, the asking price for the so-called “good class bungalow” at Nassim Road would make it the biggest transaction in absolute price for such assets, the report said.The property, with a total land area of more than 58,000 square feet, is owned by Hong Fok Corp. Ltd. joint chief executive Cheong Pin Chuan and his wife. It was previously up for sale at a price tag of S$175 million in 2019.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348143529042120,"gmtCreate":1726019608880,"gmtModify":1726020412306,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So sad the a first world country making&nbsp; themselves more lazy. Invest more in education and nutrition and not drugs.","listText":"So sad the a first world country making&nbsp; themselves more lazy. Invest more in education and nutrition and not drugs.","text":"So sad the a first world country making themselves more lazy. Invest more in education and nutrition and not drugs.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348143529042120","repostId":"2466154114","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466154114","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726019100,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466154114?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-11 09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Novo Nordisk Obesity Drug Works for Kids as Young as 6, Study Finds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466154114","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Some experts favor lifestyle changes over medications to treat obesity in young children</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c67295a561f224fdcb8d21956a9d4cd\" alt=\"Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.\" title=\"Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"609\"/><span>Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.</span></p><p>Amid an ongoing debate over what role, if any, GLP-1 medications should play in treating children who struggle with excess weight while still in elementary school, researchers have concluded that a Novo Nordisk obesity drug may be safe and effective for kids as young as 6 years of age.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Liraglutide, a GLP-1 medication marketed by Novo Nordisk as the weight-loss drug Saxenda and the diabetes treatment Victoza, produced an average reduction in body mass index of 5.8% among 6- to 11-year-olds who took the drug for just over a year as part of a late-stage clinical trial, researchers found. That compares with an average BMI increase of 1.6% for trial participants taking a placebo, according to the study, which will be presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Madrid this week and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. </p><p>Nearly half of the trial participants taking liraglutide achieved a BMI reduction of at least 5%, compared with about 9% of those taking placebo. As expected among growing children, both study groups gained some weight during the trial period. The children taking liraglutide gained an average 1.6% of body weight, while those taking placebo gained 10%.</p><p>The results “offer considerable promise to children living with obesity,” Claudia Fox, lead author of the study and co-director of the University of Minnesota Medical School’s Center for Pediatric Obesity Medicine, said in a statement. “To date, children have had virtually no options for treating obesity. They have been told to ‘try harder’ with diet and exercise.” </p><p>The prevalence of obesity among U.S. kids age 6 through 11 has grown over the past couple of decades, from 15.8% around the turn of the millennium to nearly 20%. The condition often persists into adulthood and is linked with serious complications, including Type 2 diabetes and some types of cancer. </p><p>But even as adults and their healthcare providers have quickly embraced newer obesity medications, there’s not yet a clear consensus on what role the drugs should play in treating younger children. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force in June recommended that kids age 6 and older with a high BMI receive intensive, comprehensive behavioral interventions, such as education about healthy eating habits, counseling on goal-setting and problem-solving, and supervised exercise. As for weight-loss medications, the task force said that more research is needed to fully understand the long-term health outcomes, including possible harms. The task force is an independent panel of medical experts supported by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The American Academy of Pediatrics, meanwhile, last year issued guidelines saying that there wasn’t enough evidence to recommend use of medications solely for obesity in kids younger than 12. Saxenda is currently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for children 12 and older who have a high BMI.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So far, no medications have been approved for the treatment of general obesity in kids younger than 12. And for some children, lifestyle changes such as adjustments in diet and physical activity may make a meaningful difference, Fox said at a press briefing Tuesday. “We have to be cautious and not imply that these medications are appropriate for every child,” Fox said. But children with more severe forms of obesity, she added, “are not seeing adequate results with lifestyle therapy alone.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">All of the participants in the new trial, which was funded by Novo Nordisk, also received counseling that encouraged sticking to a healthy diet and getting regular exercise. The study also found that kids taking liraglutide had more improvement in diastolic blood pressure and blood-sugar levels.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More than 12% of the children taking liraglutide, however, had serious side effects, compared with 7.7% of those on placebo. As has been seen with adults taking GLP-1 drugs, most of those negative effects were gastrointestinal. Among the children taking liraglutide, 11% stopped the treatment due to side effects, compared with none in the placebo group.</p><p>The study involved 82 children, and “with such a small sample, it’s hard to know, are there more rare side effects that could have emerged or will emerge” once more patients are exposed to the drug, Fox said to reporters Tuesday. “We need much longer-term data and much bigger numbers.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As with adult patients, there are also concerns about what might happen after children stop taking the medications. Increases in BMI among trial participants after liraglutide treatment stopped are “worrisome,” researchers from the U.K.’s University of Birmingham and University of Bristol wrote in an editorial also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, because such increases imply an ongoing need for medications to prevent a rebound in BMI. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Kids participating in the trial have the option to restart the medication for another 56 weeks, followed by two years of observation after treatment stops, which will help gather longer-term data on the drug’s safety and efficacy, Fox said. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Novo Nordisk’s American depositary receipts have climbed 25% in the year to date, while the S&amp;P 500 has gained 15%. </p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Novo Nordisk Obesity Drug Works for Kids as Young as 6, Study Finds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovo Nordisk Obesity Drug Works for Kids as Young as 6, Study Finds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-11 09:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Some experts favor lifestyle changes over medications to treat obesity in young children</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c67295a561f224fdcb8d21956a9d4cd\" alt=\"Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.\" title=\"Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"609\"/><span>Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.</span></p><p>Amid an ongoing debate over what role, if any, GLP-1 medications should play in treating children who struggle with excess weight while still in elementary school, researchers have concluded that a Novo Nordisk obesity drug may be safe and effective for kids as young as 6 years of age.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Liraglutide, a GLP-1 medication marketed by Novo Nordisk as the weight-loss drug Saxenda and the diabetes treatment Victoza, produced an average reduction in body mass index of 5.8% among 6- to 11-year-olds who took the drug for just over a year as part of a late-stage clinical trial, researchers found. That compares with an average BMI increase of 1.6% for trial participants taking a placebo, according to the study, which will be presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Madrid this week and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. </p><p>Nearly half of the trial participants taking liraglutide achieved a BMI reduction of at least 5%, compared with about 9% of those taking placebo. As expected among growing children, both study groups gained some weight during the trial period. The children taking liraglutide gained an average 1.6% of body weight, while those taking placebo gained 10%.</p><p>The results “offer considerable promise to children living with obesity,” Claudia Fox, lead author of the study and co-director of the University of Minnesota Medical School’s Center for Pediatric Obesity Medicine, said in a statement. “To date, children have had virtually no options for treating obesity. They have been told to ‘try harder’ with diet and exercise.” </p><p>The prevalence of obesity among U.S. kids age 6 through 11 has grown over the past couple of decades, from 15.8% around the turn of the millennium to nearly 20%. The condition often persists into adulthood and is linked with serious complications, including Type 2 diabetes and some types of cancer. </p><p>But even as adults and their healthcare providers have quickly embraced newer obesity medications, there’s not yet a clear consensus on what role the drugs should play in treating younger children. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force in June recommended that kids age 6 and older with a high BMI receive intensive, comprehensive behavioral interventions, such as education about healthy eating habits, counseling on goal-setting and problem-solving, and supervised exercise. As for weight-loss medications, the task force said that more research is needed to fully understand the long-term health outcomes, including possible harms. The task force is an independent panel of medical experts supported by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The American Academy of Pediatrics, meanwhile, last year issued guidelines saying that there wasn’t enough evidence to recommend use of medications solely for obesity in kids younger than 12. Saxenda is currently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for children 12 and older who have a high BMI.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So far, no medications have been approved for the treatment of general obesity in kids younger than 12. And for some children, lifestyle changes such as adjustments in diet and physical activity may make a meaningful difference, Fox said at a press briefing Tuesday. “We have to be cautious and not imply that these medications are appropriate for every child,” Fox said. But children with more severe forms of obesity, she added, “are not seeing adequate results with lifestyle therapy alone.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">All of the participants in the new trial, which was funded by Novo Nordisk, also received counseling that encouraged sticking to a healthy diet and getting regular exercise. The study also found that kids taking liraglutide had more improvement in diastolic blood pressure and blood-sugar levels.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More than 12% of the children taking liraglutide, however, had serious side effects, compared with 7.7% of those on placebo. As has been seen with adults taking GLP-1 drugs, most of those negative effects were gastrointestinal. Among the children taking liraglutide, 11% stopped the treatment due to side effects, compared with none in the placebo group.</p><p>The study involved 82 children, and “with such a small sample, it’s hard to know, are there more rare side effects that could have emerged or will emerge” once more patients are exposed to the drug, Fox said to reporters Tuesday. “We need much longer-term data and much bigger numbers.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As with adult patients, there are also concerns about what might happen after children stop taking the medications. Increases in BMI among trial participants after liraglutide treatment stopped are “worrisome,” researchers from the U.K.’s University of Birmingham and University of Bristol wrote in an editorial also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, because such increases imply an ongoing need for medications to prevent a rebound in BMI. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Kids participating in the trial have the option to restart the medication for another 56 weeks, followed by two years of observation after treatment stops, which will help gather longer-term data on the drug’s safety and efficacy, Fox said. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Novo Nordisk’s American depositary receipts have climbed 25% in the year to date, while the S&amp;P 500 has gained 15%. </p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVO":"诺和诺德"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2466154114","content_text":"Some experts favor lifestyle changes over medications to treat obesity in young childrenNovo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.Amid an ongoing debate over what role, if any, GLP-1 medications should play in treating children who struggle with excess weight while still in elementary school, researchers have concluded that a Novo Nordisk obesity drug may be safe and effective for kids as young as 6 years of age.Liraglutide, a GLP-1 medication marketed by Novo Nordisk as the weight-loss drug Saxenda and the diabetes treatment Victoza, produced an average reduction in body mass index of 5.8% among 6- to 11-year-olds who took the drug for just over a year as part of a late-stage clinical trial, researchers found. That compares with an average BMI increase of 1.6% for trial participants taking a placebo, according to the study, which will be presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Madrid this week and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Nearly half of the trial participants taking liraglutide achieved a BMI reduction of at least 5%, compared with about 9% of those taking placebo. As expected among growing children, both study groups gained some weight during the trial period. The children taking liraglutide gained an average 1.6% of body weight, while those taking placebo gained 10%.The results “offer considerable promise to children living with obesity,” Claudia Fox, lead author of the study and co-director of the University of Minnesota Medical School’s Center for Pediatric Obesity Medicine, said in a statement. “To date, children have had virtually no options for treating obesity. They have been told to ‘try harder’ with diet and exercise.” The prevalence of obesity among U.S. kids age 6 through 11 has grown over the past couple of decades, from 15.8% around the turn of the millennium to nearly 20%. The condition often persists into adulthood and is linked with serious complications, including Type 2 diabetes and some types of cancer. But even as adults and their healthcare providers have quickly embraced newer obesity medications, there’s not yet a clear consensus on what role the drugs should play in treating younger children. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force in June recommended that kids age 6 and older with a high BMI receive intensive, comprehensive behavioral interventions, such as education about healthy eating habits, counseling on goal-setting and problem-solving, and supervised exercise. As for weight-loss medications, the task force said that more research is needed to fully understand the long-term health outcomes, including possible harms. The task force is an independent panel of medical experts supported by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The American Academy of Pediatrics, meanwhile, last year issued guidelines saying that there wasn’t enough evidence to recommend use of medications solely for obesity in kids younger than 12. Saxenda is currently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for children 12 and older who have a high BMI.So far, no medications have been approved for the treatment of general obesity in kids younger than 12. And for some children, lifestyle changes such as adjustments in diet and physical activity may make a meaningful difference, Fox said at a press briefing Tuesday. “We have to be cautious and not imply that these medications are appropriate for every child,” Fox said. But children with more severe forms of obesity, she added, “are not seeing adequate results with lifestyle therapy alone.” All of the participants in the new trial, which was funded by Novo Nordisk, also received counseling that encouraged sticking to a healthy diet and getting regular exercise. The study also found that kids taking liraglutide had more improvement in diastolic blood pressure and blood-sugar levels.More than 12% of the children taking liraglutide, however, had serious side effects, compared with 7.7% of those on placebo. As has been seen with adults taking GLP-1 drugs, most of those negative effects were gastrointestinal. Among the children taking liraglutide, 11% stopped the treatment due to side effects, compared with none in the placebo group.The study involved 82 children, and “with such a small sample, it’s hard to know, are there more rare side effects that could have emerged or will emerge” once more patients are exposed to the drug, Fox said to reporters Tuesday. “We need much longer-term data and much bigger numbers.” As with adult patients, there are also concerns about what might happen after children stop taking the medications. Increases in BMI among trial participants after liraglutide treatment stopped are “worrisome,” researchers from the U.K.’s University of Birmingham and University of Bristol wrote in an editorial also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, because such increases imply an ongoing need for medications to prevent a rebound in BMI. Kids participating in the trial have the option to restart the medication for another 56 weeks, followed by two years of observation after treatment stops, which will help gather longer-term data on the drug’s safety and efficacy, Fox said. Novo Nordisk’s American depositary receipts have climbed 25% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 15%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343023120089320,"gmtCreate":1724764242918,"gmtModify":1724764246845,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> everyone try to make it cheap before the Moon","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> everyone try to make it cheap before the Moon","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ everyone try to make it cheap before the Moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343023120089320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328064110473424,"gmtCreate":1721123840155,"gmtModify":1721123848652,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DJT\">$Trump Media &amp; Technology(DJT)$ </a>&nbsp; All pump in money for trump to cash out and fund his lobby, genius","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DJT\">$Trump Media &amp; Technology(DJT)$ </a>&nbsp; All pump in money for trump to cash out and fund his lobby, genius","text":"$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ All pump in money for trump to cash out and fund his lobby, genius","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328064110473424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326360745316520,"gmtCreate":1720702084171,"gmtModify":1720702087949,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please post accurate not just rise 4% thats it, it still moving.","listText":"Please post accurate not just rise 4% thats it, it still moving.","text":"Please post accurate not just rise 4% thats it, it still moving.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326360745316520","repostId":"2450026356","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2450026356","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1720700368,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2450026356?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-11 20:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"MicroStrategy Rises After It Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2450026356","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"July 11 (Reuters) - MicroStrategy    said on Thursday its board of directors has decided in favor of a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A and class B common stock.  (Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)((Manya.Saini@thomsonreuters.com; X: manya__saini;))","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>MicroStrategy is set to execute a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A common stock and class B common stock “to make its stock more accessible to investors and employees.”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The stock split will be effected via a stock dividend to the holders of record of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock and class B common stock as of the close of business on August 1, 2024, the record date for the dividend. The stock dividend will not have any impact on the voting and other rights of stockholders.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As a result, each holder of a share of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock and class B common will each receive nine additional shares of class A common stock and B common stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In each case, the shares are expected to be distributed after the close of trading on August 7, 2024. Trading is expected to commence on a split-adjusted basis at market open on August 8, 2024.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of the company rose 4% in premarket trading.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f44ff16f0e59ec31bbd16c241e24aac\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"451\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MicroStrategy Rises After It Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicroStrategy Rises After It Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-11 20:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123596-microstrategy-to-execute-10-for-1-stock-split><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MicroStrategy is set to execute a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A common stock and class B common stock “to make its stock more accessible to investors and employees.”The stock split will be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123596-microstrategy-to-execute-10-for-1-stock-split\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSTR":"MicroStrategy"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123596-microstrategy-to-execute-10-for-1-stock-split","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2450026356","content_text":"MicroStrategy is set to execute a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A common stock and class B common stock “to make its stock more accessible to investors and employees.”The stock split will be effected via a stock dividend to the holders of record of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock and class B common stock as of the close of business on August 1, 2024, the record date for the dividend. The stock dividend will not have any impact on the voting and other rights of stockholders.As a result, each holder of a share of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock and class B common will each receive nine additional shares of class A common stock and B common stock.In each case, the shares are expected to be distributed after the close of trading on August 7, 2024. Trading is expected to commence on a split-adjusted basis at market open on August 8, 2024.U.S.-listed shares of the company rose 4% in premarket trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323336534519896,"gmtCreate":1719969818471,"gmtModify":1719969822288,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"He let you know he trimmed to make everyone panic and jump ship, so as to lower the price for him to enter again. How futile.","listText":"He let you know he trimmed to make everyone panic and jump ship, so as to lower the price for him to enter again. How futile.","text":"He let you know he trimmed to make everyone panic and jump ship, so as to lower the price for him to enter again. How futile.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323336534519896","repostId":"2448167169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2448167169","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1719966945,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2448167169?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-03 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why This Fund Manager Trimmed His Nvidia Position - and Has a Warning About AI","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448167169","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"\"Nvidia dominates the market for graphics processing units  installed by data centers. GPUs are the core components of the generative-AI infrastructure, although many other companies are providing supporting equipment.\"The hypsecalers are buying on anticipated demand,\" Ludan said. But he countered that point by saying he believed Tesla Inc. $$, and xAI  were \"incrementally positive drivers\" for Nvidia during its most recent reported fiscal quarter ended April 28. (The Buffalo Large Cap Fund had ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As Nvidia Corp. has maintained a streak of hitting quarterly revenue and profit numbers out of the park, what might be lost to investors is that so much of the action around generative artificial intelligence still hinges on the build-out of computing infrastructure, rather than demand for products and services making use of the technology. Ken Laudan of Buffalo Funds is worried about that.</p><p>&#34;I am growing concerned that the handoff from AI enablers to adopters will take much longer than I had previously anticipated,&#34; he said during an interview with MarketWatch.</p><p>Laudan manages the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, which is rated four stars (out of five) within Morningstar&#39;s &#34;Large Growth&#34; category.</p><p>Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a> remains an obvious play among companies helping data centers build the computing capacity needed to support their corporate clients&#39; development of products and services that develop generative AI. Laudan calls the companies supplying the needed hardware &#34;AI enablers.&#34; When interviewed in February, he said that &#34;maybe in 2025&#34; investors would begin paying more attention to &#34;AI adopters,&#34; which he defined as &#34;software-centric companies that sell a large-language AI model on top of their enterprise or vertical software stock to their clients.&#34;</p><p>But he has since changed his mind.</p><p>From numbers supplied by FactSet, as well as guidance from Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$(AMD)$</a> and Broadcom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>, Laudan estimated in a follow-up email that, from January 2023 through the end of 2024, cumulative spending &#34;for the silicon (chip) portion of AI&#34; would exceed $200 billion.</p><p>He estimated that &#34;hyperscalers&#34; investing heavily in AI equipment, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc. (META), eventually would need to generate an annualized $300 billion in annual revenue &#34;just to be gross-margin neutral to their existing cloud-hosting business.&#34;</p><p>He clarified that the $300 billion figure would cover &#34;application revenues paid to the hyperscalers from their enterprise customers or other AI companies,&#34; and said that figure compared with $3 billion in cumulative AI &#34;application&#34; revenue estimated by Sequoia Ventures in April. You can watch that presentation here.</p><p>Boiling down the warning about AI spending and a delayed payoff</p><p>Laudan asked: &#34;When will hyperscalers - which represent 53% of Nvidia&#39;s revenues - begin to base GPU purchases on end-user demand, rather than buying them on anticipated demand?&#34;</p><p>Nvidia dominates the market for graphics processing units (GPUs) installed by data centers. GPUs are the core components of the generative-AI infrastructure, although many other companies are providing supporting equipment.</p><p>&#34;The hypsecalers are buying on anticipated demand,&#34; Ludan said. But he countered that point by saying he believed Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, and xAI (founded by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year) were &#34;incrementally positive drivers&#34; for Nvidia during its most recent reported fiscal quarter ended April 28. (The Buffalo Large Cap Fund had a small position in Tesla as of March 31.)</p><p>He said that an institutional investor had raised the point that companies such as Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> and Alphabet Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$(GOOG)$</a> couldn&#39;t afford to be left behind during the AI-infrastructure buildup.</p><p>&#34;How much can investors tolerate?&#34; Laudan wondered. &#34;If there is a big hit to gross margins, investors will not tolerate this for five years. At some point the spark is going to go off,&#34; he said.</p><p>Laudan said investors need to see &#34;hyperscalers dramatically shift&#34; so the gap between AI infrastructure spending spend and AI adopter revenue begins to close &#34;dramatically.&#34;</p><p>&#34;But I am not seeing data points that are leading indicators that that will happen,&#34; he said. He expects to see clearer indications - positive or negative - over the next 12 months.</p><p>How Laudan is heeding his own warning</p><p>The Buffalo Large Cap Fund tends to hold about 70 stocks. Net of expenses, which total 0.95% of assets under management annually, the fund&#39;s investor shares have returned 22% this year, slightly ahead of its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Growth Index RLG, and ahead of the 15.6% return for the S&amp;P 500 SPX. (All returns in this article include reinvested dividends.)</p><p>Broadly, Laudan said he was &#34;trimming where I need to in the AI ecosystem, staying overweight in industrials and healthcare (relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index), and looking at some of the beaten-up large-cap software names.&#34;</p><p>He said he had reduced the fund&#39;s holdings of Nvidia, which made up 7% of the fund&#39;s portfolio as of March 31. He also reduced the fund&#39;s holdings of AMD &#34;a bit&#34; and sold some shares of Coherent Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">$(COHR)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTG\">Pure Storage Inc</a>. (PSTG), two alternative AI plays he mentioned during the February interview with MarketWatch.</p><p>Microsoft Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a> was the largest holding of the Buffalo Large Cap Fund as of March 31, with an 11% allocation. The stock has returned 22% this year, and software companies in the S&amp;P 500 have returned a weighted 16.9%, according to FactSet.</p><p>Beyond the world of tech and AI, Laudan appreciates &#34;industrial compounders,&#34; such as GE Aerospace <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">$(GE)$</a>, Xylem Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYL\">$(XYL)$</a> and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAB\">$(WAB)$</a>, also known as Wabtec.</p><p>Within healthcare, Laudan still likes Eli Lilly &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$(LLY)$</a>, which reported a 26% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales as demand soared for its GLP-1 weight-loss medications.</p><p>Other healthcare names Laudan listed as favorable included Abbott Laboratories <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">$(ABT)$</a>, DexCom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXCM\">$(DXCM)$</a> and AstraZeneca PLC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">$(AZN)$</a>, along with Merck &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a>, which he said he had added to the portfolio recently.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why This Fund Manager Trimmed His Nvidia Position - and Has a Warning About AI</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy This Fund Manager Trimmed His Nvidia Position - and Has a Warning About AI\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-03 08:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>As Nvidia Corp. has maintained a streak of hitting quarterly revenue and profit numbers out of the park, what might be lost to investors is that so much of the action around generative artificial intelligence still hinges on the build-out of computing infrastructure, rather than demand for products and services making use of the technology. Ken Laudan of Buffalo Funds is worried about that.</p><p>&#34;I am growing concerned that the handoff from AI enablers to adopters will take much longer than I had previously anticipated,&#34; he said during an interview with MarketWatch.</p><p>Laudan manages the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, which is rated four stars (out of five) within Morningstar&#39;s &#34;Large Growth&#34; category.</p><p>Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a> remains an obvious play among companies helping data centers build the computing capacity needed to support their corporate clients&#39; development of products and services that develop generative AI. Laudan calls the companies supplying the needed hardware &#34;AI enablers.&#34; When interviewed in February, he said that &#34;maybe in 2025&#34; investors would begin paying more attention to &#34;AI adopters,&#34; which he defined as &#34;software-centric companies that sell a large-language AI model on top of their enterprise or vertical software stock to their clients.&#34;</p><p>But he has since changed his mind.</p><p>From numbers supplied by FactSet, as well as guidance from Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$(AMD)$</a> and Broadcom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>, Laudan estimated in a follow-up email that, from January 2023 through the end of 2024, cumulative spending &#34;for the silicon (chip) portion of AI&#34; would exceed $200 billion.</p><p>He estimated that &#34;hyperscalers&#34; investing heavily in AI equipment, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc. (META), eventually would need to generate an annualized $300 billion in annual revenue &#34;just to be gross-margin neutral to their existing cloud-hosting business.&#34;</p><p>He clarified that the $300 billion figure would cover &#34;application revenues paid to the hyperscalers from their enterprise customers or other AI companies,&#34; and said that figure compared with $3 billion in cumulative AI &#34;application&#34; revenue estimated by Sequoia Ventures in April. You can watch that presentation here.</p><p>Boiling down the warning about AI spending and a delayed payoff</p><p>Laudan asked: &#34;When will hyperscalers - which represent 53% of Nvidia&#39;s revenues - begin to base GPU purchases on end-user demand, rather than buying them on anticipated demand?&#34;</p><p>Nvidia dominates the market for graphics processing units (GPUs) installed by data centers. GPUs are the core components of the generative-AI infrastructure, although many other companies are providing supporting equipment.</p><p>&#34;The hypsecalers are buying on anticipated demand,&#34; Ludan said. But he countered that point by saying he believed Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, and xAI (founded by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year) were &#34;incrementally positive drivers&#34; for Nvidia during its most recent reported fiscal quarter ended April 28. (The Buffalo Large Cap Fund had a small position in Tesla as of March 31.)</p><p>He said that an institutional investor had raised the point that companies such as Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> and Alphabet Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$(GOOG)$</a> couldn&#39;t afford to be left behind during the AI-infrastructure buildup.</p><p>&#34;How much can investors tolerate?&#34; Laudan wondered. &#34;If there is a big hit to gross margins, investors will not tolerate this for five years. At some point the spark is going to go off,&#34; he said.</p><p>Laudan said investors need to see &#34;hyperscalers dramatically shift&#34; so the gap between AI infrastructure spending spend and AI adopter revenue begins to close &#34;dramatically.&#34;</p><p>&#34;But I am not seeing data points that are leading indicators that that will happen,&#34; he said. He expects to see clearer indications - positive or negative - over the next 12 months.</p><p>How Laudan is heeding his own warning</p><p>The Buffalo Large Cap Fund tends to hold about 70 stocks. Net of expenses, which total 0.95% of assets under management annually, the fund&#39;s investor shares have returned 22% this year, slightly ahead of its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Growth Index RLG, and ahead of the 15.6% return for the S&amp;P 500 SPX. (All returns in this article include reinvested dividends.)</p><p>Broadly, Laudan said he was &#34;trimming where I need to in the AI ecosystem, staying overweight in industrials and healthcare (relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index), and looking at some of the beaten-up large-cap software names.&#34;</p><p>He said he had reduced the fund&#39;s holdings of Nvidia, which made up 7% of the fund&#39;s portfolio as of March 31. He also reduced the fund&#39;s holdings of AMD &#34;a bit&#34; and sold some shares of Coherent Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">$(COHR)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTG\">Pure Storage Inc</a>. (PSTG), two alternative AI plays he mentioned during the February interview with MarketWatch.</p><p>Microsoft Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a> was the largest holding of the Buffalo Large Cap Fund as of March 31, with an 11% allocation. The stock has returned 22% this year, and software companies in the S&amp;P 500 have returned a weighted 16.9%, according to FactSet.</p><p>Beyond the world of tech and AI, Laudan appreciates &#34;industrial compounders,&#34; such as GE Aerospace <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">$(GE)$</a>, Xylem Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYL\">$(XYL)$</a> and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAB\">$(WAB)$</a>, also known as Wabtec.</p><p>Within healthcare, Laudan still likes Eli Lilly &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$(LLY)$</a>, which reported a 26% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales as demand soared for its GLP-1 weight-loss medications.</p><p>Other healthcare names Laudan listed as favorable included Abbott Laboratories <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">$(ABT)$</a>, DexCom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXCM\">$(DXCM)$</a> and AstraZeneca PLC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">$(AZN)$</a>, along with Merck &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a>, which he said he had added to the portfolio recently.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4148":"电子元件","LU0058720904.USD":"联博国际健康护理基金A","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE0002141913.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I2\" (USD) ACC","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","IE00BJJMRZ35.SGD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001176.SGD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE \"SGD\" (ACC)","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1023059063.AUD":"BGF WORLD HEALTHSCIENCE \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0289739699.SGD":"AB INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0320765992.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Biotechnology Discovery A Acc SGD","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2448167169","content_text":"As Nvidia Corp. has maintained a streak of hitting quarterly revenue and profit numbers out of the park, what might be lost to investors is that so much of the action around generative artificial intelligence still hinges on the build-out of computing infrastructure, rather than demand for products and services making use of the technology. Ken Laudan of Buffalo Funds is worried about that.\"I am growing concerned that the handoff from AI enablers to adopters will take much longer than I had previously anticipated,\" he said during an interview with MarketWatch.Laudan manages the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, which is rated four stars (out of five) within Morningstar's \"Large Growth\" category.Nvidia $(NVDA)$ remains an obvious play among companies helping data centers build the computing capacity needed to support their corporate clients' development of products and services that develop generative AI. Laudan calls the companies supplying the needed hardware \"AI enablers.\" When interviewed in February, he said that \"maybe in 2025\" investors would begin paying more attention to \"AI adopters,\" which he defined as \"software-centric companies that sell a large-language AI model on top of their enterprise or vertical software stock to their clients.\"But he has since changed his mind.From numbers supplied by FactSet, as well as guidance from Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. $(AMD)$ and Broadcom Inc. $(AVGO)$, Laudan estimated in a follow-up email that, from January 2023 through the end of 2024, cumulative spending \"for the silicon (chip) portion of AI\" would exceed $200 billion.He estimated that \"hyperscalers\" investing heavily in AI equipment, such as Meta Platforms Inc. (META), eventually would need to generate an annualized $300 billion in annual revenue \"just to be gross-margin neutral to their existing cloud-hosting business.\"He clarified that the $300 billion figure would cover \"application revenues paid to the hyperscalers from their enterprise customers or other AI companies,\" and said that figure compared with $3 billion in cumulative AI \"application\" revenue estimated by Sequoia Ventures in April. You can watch that presentation here.Boiling down the warning about AI spending and a delayed payoffLaudan asked: \"When will hyperscalers - which represent 53% of Nvidia's revenues - begin to base GPU purchases on end-user demand, rather than buying them on anticipated demand?\"Nvidia dominates the market for graphics processing units (GPUs) installed by data centers. GPUs are the core components of the generative-AI infrastructure, although many other companies are providing supporting equipment.\"The hypsecalers are buying on anticipated demand,\" Ludan said. But he countered that point by saying he believed Tesla Inc. $(TSLA)$, and xAI (founded by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year) were \"incrementally positive drivers\" for Nvidia during its most recent reported fiscal quarter ended April 28. (The Buffalo Large Cap Fund had a small position in Tesla as of March 31.)He said that an institutional investor had raised the point that companies such as Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$ and Alphabet Inc. $(GOOGL)$ $(GOOG)$ couldn't afford to be left behind during the AI-infrastructure buildup.\"How much can investors tolerate?\" Laudan wondered. \"If there is a big hit to gross margins, investors will not tolerate this for five years. At some point the spark is going to go off,\" he said.Laudan said investors need to see \"hyperscalers dramatically shift\" so the gap between AI infrastructure spending spend and AI adopter revenue begins to close \"dramatically.\"\"But I am not seeing data points that are leading indicators that that will happen,\" he said. He expects to see clearer indications - positive or negative - over the next 12 months.How Laudan is heeding his own warningThe Buffalo Large Cap Fund tends to hold about 70 stocks. Net of expenses, which total 0.95% of assets under management annually, the fund's investor shares have returned 22% this year, slightly ahead of its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Growth Index RLG, and ahead of the 15.6% return for the S&P 500 SPX. (All returns in this article include reinvested dividends.)Broadly, Laudan said he was \"trimming where I need to in the AI ecosystem, staying overweight in industrials and healthcare (relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index), and looking at some of the beaten-up large-cap software names.\"He said he had reduced the fund's holdings of Nvidia, which made up 7% of the fund's portfolio as of March 31. He also reduced the fund's holdings of AMD \"a bit\" and sold some shares of Coherent Corp. $(COHR)$ and Pure Storage Inc. (PSTG), two alternative AI plays he mentioned during the February interview with MarketWatch.Microsoft Corp. $(MSFT)$ was the largest holding of the Buffalo Large Cap Fund as of March 31, with an 11% allocation. The stock has returned 22% this year, and software companies in the S&P 500 have returned a weighted 16.9%, according to FactSet.Beyond the world of tech and AI, Laudan appreciates \"industrial compounders,\" such as GE Aerospace $(GE)$, Xylem Inc. $(XYL)$ and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. $(WAB)$, also known as Wabtec.Within healthcare, Laudan still likes Eli Lilly & Co. $(LLY)$, which reported a 26% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales as demand soared for its GLP-1 weight-loss medications.Other healthcare names Laudan listed as favorable included Abbott Laboratories $(ABT)$, DexCom Inc. $(DXCM)$ and AstraZeneca PLC $(AZN)$, along with Merck & Co. $(MRK)$, which he said he had added to the portfolio recently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322800752656488,"gmtCreate":1719839138405,"gmtModify":1719839143466,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why not say 20 years 30 years 40 years, so shallow just making the word counts. High school essay. 10 years later will just rebuff as speculation. Eating the essay soon?","listText":"Why not say 20 years 30 years 40 years, so shallow just making the word counts. High school essay. 10 years later will just rebuff as speculation. Eating the essay soon?","text":"Why not say 20 years 30 years 40 years, so shallow just making the word counts. High school essay. 10 years later will just rebuff as speculation. Eating the essay soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322800752656488","repostId":"2447608276","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2447608276","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1719813642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2447608276?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-01 14:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Currently Overvalued, But It's Set To Be A Potential Outperformer Throughout 2033","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2447608276","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Since Microsoft has too many segments, I will focus on the ones providing the most revenue: Cloud, Office Products and Licenses, and Windows OS. In the PaaS and IaaS cloud markets, Microsoft boasts a 24% market share, which puts Microsoft in second place behind Amazon.com, Inc.  which holds 31%. However, what sets Microsoft apart is that its market share increased by 4% since 2020 when it was 20%. Meanwhile, Amazon's market share lost 1%. Statista Statista On the other ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Microsoft&#39;s valuation is upgraded from &#34;hold&#34; to &#34;buy&#34; with a near-term target of $417.30 and a 2033 target of $1,099.90, implying 14.6% annual returns.</p></li><li><p>The Company&#39;s growth is driven by its cloud business (Azure), and acquisitions like Activision-Blizzard.</p></li><li><p>MSFT holds a 24% cloud market share (second to Amazon&#39;s 31%) and dominates with a 72.17% share in the PC OS market.</p></li><li><p>Microsoft&#39;s TAM is expected to grow from $754.1B in 2024 to $1.70T by 2029, with the cloud segment driving most of the growth.</p></li><li><p>The valuation (which uses a DCF model) suggests 14.6% annual returns throughout 2033 (and could be higher if Azure grows faster than expected).</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/993d2dbd835b83c14174232aa462c917\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"538\"/></p><p>InnaFelker</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1050932963\">Thesis</h2><p>In my previous article on Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), I downgraded the stock from &#34;buy&#34; to &#34;hold&#34;, explaining that according to my models, Microsoft had reached a fair valuation when it was trading at $425.52 (which was 6.6% higher than my fair stock price estimate of $397.49). Furthermore, I suggested that the stock could reach a price of $701.68, translating into 10.50% annual returns throughout 2024-2029.</p><p>Microsoft released Q3 2024 earnings on April 25. For that quarter, Microsoft reported an EPS of $2.94 (3.8% higher than estimated) and revenues of $61.9B (1.65% higher than estimated).</p><p>After revising my valuation on Microsoft, I arrived at a near-term stock price target of $417.30, and a 2033 target of $1,099.90. The first number implies a 6.5% downside from the current stock price of $446.34, and the former, is 14.6% annual returns throughout 2024-2033 (which already sets Microsoft as an outperformer), furthermore, if Azure grows faster than the growth rate I used, Microsoft could become undervalued. Because of these reasons, I upgrade the stock from &#34;hold&#34; to &#34;buy&#34;.</p><h2 id=\"id_2779944536\">Overview</h2><h4 id=\"id_747025263\">Growth Plan</h4><p>Microsoft&#39;s recent growth primarily comes from its cloud business Azure. Microsoft has been doting Azure of AI capabilities by establishing new Data Centers, for instance, Microsoft is one of Nvidia Corporation&#39;s (NVDA) major clients.</p><p>Microsoft also acquires businesses related to its already established segments, such as when it bought Activision Blizzard, which owns games such as the Call of Duty franchise, Diablo, and Overwatch 2. This acquisition brought up a lot of scrutiny from regulators (particularly from the UK) since it helped Microsoft to create a network effect with its Xbox platform (which dominates the gaming consoles market along with the PlayStation and the Nintendo Switch).</p><h4 id=\"id_661735772\">How does Microsoft Compare Against Peers?</h4><p>Since Microsoft has too many segments, I will focus on the ones providing the most revenue: Cloud, Office Products and Licenses, and Windows OS.</p><p>In the PaaS and IaaS cloud markets, Microsoft boasts a 24% market share, which puts Microsoft in second place behind Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) which holds 31%. However, what sets Microsoft apart is that its market share increased by 4% since 2020 when it was 20%. Meanwhile, Amazon&#39;s market share lost 1%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ffaaa09600ecd94158b7f3d669e06f9\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"1200\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4cce7f5e06bcaeb53b641bc7ad3f71e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p></p><p>On the other hand, Microsoft Office holds a 30% market share, which is behind Alphabet, Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL), which has 44%. This is because Google&#39;s Office version is free and enough for casual users such as students. However, Google Sheets (Google&#39;s version of Excel) lacks some crucial capabilities that Excel has.</p><p>Lastly, Windows continues to dominate the PC OS market, holding an impressive 72.17% market share. In second place, it&#39;s Apple (AAPL) with a 15.42% market share.</p><h4 id=\"id_166055940\">Industry Outlook &amp; Addressable Market</h4><p>The productivity &amp; business processes segment, comprises Office 365, on-premise office licenses, LinkedIn, and Dynamics 365 intelligent cloud. The business productivity market is expected to reach a $59.37B valuation in 2024 and $120.52B in 2029. This shows an annual CAGR of 15.29%.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Worldwide Public Cloud market is expected to have a market volume of $282.2B in 2024, which should increase to $1.06T in 2028, thus showcasing an annual growth rate of 11.37%. This is the market in which Microsoft&#39;s intelligent cloud segment is. This segment offers Azure, SQL servers, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related licenses.</p><p>Lastly, the &#34;<strong>More Personal Computing</strong>&#34; segment, agglomerates very diverse products such as the Windows OS, Microsoft Surface devices, HoloLens, XBOX, Microsoft Edge, Bing search engine, and PC accessories such as mice and keyboards.</p><p>The worldwide gaming console market is expected to reach a $26.43B valuation for 2024 and $43.12B for 2029, translating into an 8.50% CAGR throughout that period.</p><p>Then, the global PC Accessories market is expected to reach a $27.58B valuation in 2024 and $48.9B in 2029, which is a 12.13% CAGR.</p><p>Then, I calculated Bing &amp; Microsoft Edge TAM to estimate the expected total internet users. For 2024TTM, Google Search Engine <strong>has $188.85B in revenues</strong>, which <strong>divided by</strong> the total <strong>users of 4.29K</strong>, yields a result of <strong>$43.99 per user</strong>. For 2024, the total <strong>number of internet users is estimated to be 5.25B</strong>. For 2029, that number should increase to 6.58 B. Therefore, what I did is that I assumed that Microsoft (to compete) will <strong>maintain the same revenue per user as Google</strong>. This means that Bing&#39;s TAM for 2024 would stand at around $231.12B, and will increase to $289.45B by 2029. Which <strong>showcases a 4.21% CAGR throughout that period</strong>.</p><p>With all these segments, Microsoft&#39;s <strong>current TAM is at $754.1B</strong>, and <strong>for 2029, the TAM should increase to $1.70T</strong>, which <strong>is a 21.11% annual growth</strong>. However, as was already expected, most of that TAM growth, comes from the Cloud because realistically, Microsoft Surface devices will have it difficult to grow, as well as PC accessories, and XBOX. After all, these three markets have what I will call &#34;an untouchable competitor&#34;.</p><p>In the case of PCs, if a programmer wants to program for Apple devices, he needs to do it in an Apple device (like a Mac), therefore entering the PC market for programmers is nearly impossible.</p><p>Meanwhile, in the case of accessories, there are gamer brands, and Microsoft does not make gaming keyboards and mice.</p><p>Lastly, for Xbox, the only way Microsoft would be able to concentrate the market is if Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:NTDOY) licenses its content to Microsoft, and that will never happen, since Nintendo knows that this exclusivity is its moat.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Segments</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>TAM 2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>TAM 2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>CAGR %</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Productivity &amp; Business Processes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59,270.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>120,520.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Intelligent Cloud</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>282,200.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1,060,000.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Xbox</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26,430.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43,120.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>PC Accessories</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27,580.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48,900.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.13%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Bing &amp; Microsoft Edge</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>231,123.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>289,454.2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.21%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Microsoft Surface Devices</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>127,500.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>147,386.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Total</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>754,104.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1,709,381.3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21.11%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>CAGR%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21.11%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_2883581705\">Valuation</h2><p>I will value Microsoft through a DCF model. The first thing to be calculated will be the WACC, which I calculated with the already-known formula (and you can find a more detailed formula in the DCF model). The result was 11.35%.</p><p>Then, the D&amp;A margin will be projected with a margin tied to revenue, which came out at 6.52%.</p><p>Lastly, the CapEx margin throughout the projection will remain constant at 16.72%.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"2\" style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Equity Market Price</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,317,645.22</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Debt Value</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>106,229.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Cost of Debt</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Tax Rate</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18.13%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10y Treasury</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.219%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Beta</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.18</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Market Return</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Cost of Equity</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11.63%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>CapEx</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39,547.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Capex Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.72%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Net Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>86,181.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Interest</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,762.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Tax</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,082.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>D&amp;A</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,420.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBITDA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>123,445.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>D&amp;A Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>236,584.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>R&amp;D Expense Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17.05%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>The first thing is to calculate revenues, and the first segment I will calculate is <strong>Activision-Blizzard</strong>. For 2023, the now-acquired company generated $8.7B in revenues. Now, the problem is that it&#39;s impossible to predict which games are going to be a success and which not. Therefore, I will assume a conservative growth rate of 5.20%.</p><p>Then, the <strong>productivity &amp; business Processes,</strong> and <strong>Intelligent Cloud</strong> will grow in line with its market, by 15.25% and 15.66% respectively.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue of Activision</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Productivity &amp; Business Processes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Intelligent Cloud</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,706.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>69,275.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>87,902.3</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9,158.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>79,839.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>101,667.8</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9,635.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>92,015.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>117,589.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,136.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>106,047.2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>136,003.4</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,663.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>122,219.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>157,301.5</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,217.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>140,857.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>181,935.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,800.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>162,338.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>210,426.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,480.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>187,095.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>243,378.7</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,398.3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>215,627.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>281,491.8</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2032</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16,493.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>248,510.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>325,573.4</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2033</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17,665.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>286,408.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>376,558.2</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Growth Rate %</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.66%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Now, starting with the &#34;More Personal Computing&#34; segment I found that <strong>Xbox</strong> sales totaled $15.46B for 2023. This segment will also grow in line with its market, 8.50%.</p><p>On the other hand, <strong>Bing</strong> had a <strong>market share of around 10.53%</strong> in 2023 (which multiplied by the total amount of internet users in that year, means that Bing had around <strong>543.13M users</strong>). After dividing the estimated $12.21B in revenue generated by Bing in 2023, I got that this division could be generating <strong>around $22.48 per user</strong> (which is lower than Google&#39;s $36.29). Then, I multiply that $22.48 in revenues per user by the estimated internet users to get the revenue estimates. This also yields a growth rate of 4.59% for 2023-2029 which I will use to project revenue for 2030-2033.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Internet Users</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Bing&#39;s Share</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,254.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>553.25</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,470.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>575.99</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,690.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>599.16</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,910.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>622.32</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,350.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>668.66</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,580.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>692.87</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Meanwhile, it&#39;s estimated that <strong>Microsoft Surface devices</strong>&#39; sales tanked by 30% for 2023, which generated losses of up to $1.8B. By doing the rule of three, I found that Microsoft <strong>would have generated $6B in revenues for 2023</strong>. This segment will grow in line with the worldwide laptop market at 3.69%.</p><p>Lastly, <strong>Windows operating system</strong> revenue is speculated to have been around $24.61B in 2023. This was calculated via the rule of three, since in 2023, Windows revenue fell by $3.2B which was 13%. Therefore, I calculated the 100% with that information. This segment will grow in line with the worldwide PC market at 1.13%.</p><p>However, these calculations for 2023 say that Microsoft generated $63.35B for the &#34;More Personal Computing&#34; segment, which is substantially more than the reported $54.73B. Therefore, I will divide the $19.3B difference by the 5 subsegments, and then subtract the $3.806B result from each of them, so I can be able to correct the difference from the resulting segment result with the actual segment result.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Xbox</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>PC Accessories</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Bing &amp; Microsoft Edge</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Microsoft Surface Devices</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Windows Os</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,659.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,672.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,403.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,193.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,808.52</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,650.58</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,088.40</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,436.97</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,274.46</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,043.66</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,725.88</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,676.02</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,948.28</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,358.39</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,281.45</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,892.58</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16,456.22</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,469.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,445.41</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,521.93</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16,158.45</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18,452.36</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,989.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,535.65</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,765.13</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17,531.92</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,690.63</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,031.36</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,629.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,011.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,022.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23,200.40</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,575.81</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,726.23</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,259.80</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,639.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26,014.61</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17,791.43</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,826.83</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,511.33</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,393.32</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29,170.19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,322.22</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,931.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,765.71</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2032</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>24,296.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32,708.53</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23,213.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,039.30</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23,022.97</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2033</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26,361.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36,676.07</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26,515.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,151.45</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23,283.12</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Growth Rate %</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.50%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.13%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14.22%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.69%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.13%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Then, I will calculate net income. The first step is <strong>gross income</strong>, which I will <strong>maintain</strong> the <strong>current gross margin of 69.89%</strong>. Meanwhile, general expenses will be tied to full-time employees. In 2023 general expenses were $27.19B, which was divided by the number of employees at that time of 221K. This resulted in an expense per employee of $120K (this is also an indication that Microsoft pays goods). Then I will <strong>assume</strong> that <strong>Microsoft</strong> will <strong>hire 19.33K new workers</strong> <strong>annually</strong>, in line with 2021-2023.</p><p>On the other hand, <strong>R&amp;D expenses</strong> will be calculated with a margin tied to gross income, which currently stands at 17.05%.</p><p>Then it&#39;s the time to calculate <strong>short &amp; long-term debt</strong> and interest income &amp; expenses. Short &amp; long-term debt will have annual changes in line with their 2018-20222 performance of 26.4%, and -8.7% respectively. Meanwhile, <strong>marketable securities</strong> will be growing at a <strong>4.2% annual rate</strong>.</p><p>Then, I found that in 2019, <strong>when</strong> interest <strong>rates were lower than now</strong>, <strong>Microsoft paid</strong> a <strong>3.11% interest on debt</strong> and <strong>received</strong> a <strong>2.26% annual return</strong> on <strong>its marketable securities</strong>.</p><p>However, for 2024TTM (<strong>when interest rates are high</strong>) Microsoft has paid a <strong>2.60% interest on debt</strong> (yes, lower than when interest rates were lower) and has <strong>received</strong> a <strong>5.67% return on marketable securities</strong>.</p><p>So with this information, I will <strong>assume an interest on a debt payment of 2.60%</strong> throughout the project. Then I will assume that for 2024 and 2027 Microsoft will receive a 5.67% return on its marketable securities and for the other years, it will receive 2.26%. This is because <strong>I am expecting that for 2024 and 2027, interest rates will increase again</strong>. If you want to read the full explanation, you can check the valuation section of my article on JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (JPM).</p><p>Nevertheless, <strong>for 2030-2033</strong>, I will use <strong>the average marketable securities annual return of 3.96%</strong> (the average of 5.67% and 2.26%) since I have not made an interest rates projection for the years beyond 2029.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3392d113dc4ba4877f8acbef1242006\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Net Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus Taxes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus D&amp;A</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus Interest</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$252,160.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$96,208.66</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$121,411.75</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$137,846.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$140,091.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$284,228.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$106,918.84</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$134,927.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$151,362.78</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$153,846.25</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$320,971.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$121,768.87</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$153,667.72</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$174,587.92</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$177,522.65</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$363,085.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$141,490.60</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$178,555.78</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$202,220.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$205,652.88</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$411,904.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$159,289.99</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$201,017.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$227,864.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$231,956.74</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$467,349.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$182,609.20</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$230,228.11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$260,688.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$265,614.55</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$533,737.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$211,816.29</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$267,304.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$302,091.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$308,071.13</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$610,100.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$244,241.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$308,222.81</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$347,987.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$355,298.55</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2032</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$696,857.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$281,168.43</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$354,823.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$400,243.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$409,236.74</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2033</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$796,620.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$323,724.30</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$408,527.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$460,449.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$471,569.18</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>^Final EBITA^</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Then, I assume that <strong>current assets</strong> <strong>will grow at 1.72%</strong>, thus mirroring the performance during 2018-2022. Then, with this, I use the undiscounted cash flows highlighted in green and add the future equity value, which is composed of the future short &amp; long-term debt, current assets, and marketable securities.</p><p>Lastly, the <strong>perpetuity growth rate</strong> in the model <strong>is 1.82%</strong>. This number was calculated by dividing the resulting free cash flow growth rate from the projection (25.07%) and dividing it by the difference between it and the WACC of 11.35% (<strong>25.07%/(25.07%-11.35%)=1.82%</strong>).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf10435f50c20656579b988a32525d88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p></p><p>As you can see, the model suggests that the stock (today) should be trading at $417.30, which is 6.5% below the current stock price of $446.34. For the future, the model suggests that the stock could be trading at $1,099.90 in 2033. Yes, that&#39;s a 146.4% upside from the current stock price, however when dividing that by the 10 years until the end of 2033, you get 14.6% annual returns.</p><h4 id=\"id_2386006103\">What if Azure could grow at 20-25% annually?</h4><p>If I increase Azure revenue growth from 15.66% to 20%, then the present fair price of Microsoft would be $484.22 (which is 8.5% above the current stock price), and a 2033 stock price target of $1,287.45 (which suggests 18.8% annual returns).</p><p>Then, If I increase that 20% revenue growth to 25%, the present fair price increases to $600.74 and the future price to $1,617.07. The first number indicates a 34.6% undervaluation of Microsoft&#39;s stock, and the future price indicates 26.2% annual returns throughout 2033.</p><h4 id=\"id_4161173946\">But, is that possible?</h4><p>Since 2015, Intelligent Cloud has only surpassed the 30% growth rate in 2021. The average revenue growth rate of this segment has been 17.74%, which is slightly lower than the first 20% hypothetical scenario, and 7.26% lower than the second 25% hypothetical scenario.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annual Revenue of Microsoft&#39;s Intelligent Cloud</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Change %</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2015</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23684</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25040</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.73%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27400</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9.42%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32230</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17.63%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38990</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20.97%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44450</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14.00%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>60000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.98%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>74700</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>24.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>86930</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.37%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024 TTM</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>100850</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.01%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that if I take out 2015 and 2016, the average Azure annual growth rate increases to 20.64%. However, the problem is that, in the past, when the cloud market was growing faster, Azure just achieved a growth rate of over 20% in 2019, 2021, and 2022. Thus, there&#39;s more probability that Azure will grow below the required 20% (which would make Microsoft undervalued by a mere 8.5%)</p><p>Nevertheless, it&#39;s good that even with the 15.66% originally used in this projection, the suggested annual return of 14.6% is still above the historic 10.50% annual returns of the market, which sets Microsoft to be an outperformer, even if the stock price decreased by 6.5% to adjust to my fair stock price estimate of $417.30.</p><h2 id=\"id_88032998\">Risks to Thesis</h2><p>The main risk for my thesis is that Microsoft suddenly can achieve that high 30% growth rate that is required for a fair stock price of $496.21. This may be the reason why Microsoft&#39;s stock has been increasing past my fair stock price estimates because the optimism on Azure has passed the logical boundary.</p><p>However, I think that there are more risks related to Microsoft than to my thesis, for example, Microsoft would have it very difficult to perform any big-scale acquisition such as the Activision one.</p><p>Then, there is also the risk that Microsoft is more prone to lose market share than to gain it, yes Azure has grown its market share by 4% since 2020. However, that will be very difficult for Windows, or Microsoft Office. At best, what Microsoft could do is to boost the sales of Surface devices, however, the problem with that is the differentiation factor. What happened with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> is that its PCs were made by third-party components to which the competition could also access, and then its computers lost ground to cheaper alternatives, and the same thing happens today.</p><h2 id=\"id_2019918090\">Evolution of My Fair Price Estimates</h2><p>Since my first coverage on Microsoft, my fair price estimate has increased by 12.29%. Concerning my previous coverage, the reason for the increase from $397.49 to the present $417.30, the model I did in this article, covers 10 years, and not 6 as the previous one did. The main effect is that the total amount of cash flows increases in the model, which ultimately leads to an increased fair stock price.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d985bec6886950475008be2ad5790621\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1324337767\">Conclusion</h2><p>In conclusion, Microsoft continues to be overvalued, however, Microsoft&#39;s current valuation (despite a 6.5% overvaluation) is a good point to enter (in my opinion) and wait for Azure to deliver higher returns than the 15.66% used for my estimates. The suggested annual returns in my base model are 14.6% (which already sets Microsoft as an outperformer against the market&#39;s 10.50% annual return average).</p><p>Lastly, I assigned a near-term target for Microsoft&#39;s stock at $417.30, which is 6.5% below the current stock price of $446.34, and a 2033 stock price target at $1,099.90, which implies a 14.6% annual return throughout the 10 years.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Currently Overvalued, But It's Set To Be A Potential Outperformer Throughout 2033</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Currently Overvalued, But It's Set To Be A Potential Outperformer Throughout 2033\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-01 14:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701692-microsoft-currently-overvalued-but-its-set-to-be-a-potential-outperformer-throughout-2033><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Microsoft's valuation is upgraded from \"hold\" to \"buy\" with a near-term target of $417.30 and a 2033 target of $1,099.90, implying 14.6% annual returns.The Company's growth is driven by its cloud ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701692-microsoft-currently-overvalued-but-its-set-to-be-a-potential-outperformer-throughout-2033\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701692-microsoft-currently-overvalued-but-its-set-to-be-a-potential-outperformer-throughout-2033","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2447608276","content_text":"Microsoft's valuation is upgraded from \"hold\" to \"buy\" with a near-term target of $417.30 and a 2033 target of $1,099.90, implying 14.6% annual returns.The Company's growth is driven by its cloud business (Azure), and acquisitions like Activision-Blizzard.MSFT holds a 24% cloud market share (second to Amazon's 31%) and dominates with a 72.17% share in the PC OS market.Microsoft's TAM is expected to grow from $754.1B in 2024 to $1.70T by 2029, with the cloud segment driving most of the growth.The valuation (which uses a DCF model) suggests 14.6% annual returns throughout 2033 (and could be higher if Azure grows faster than expected).InnaFelkerThesisIn my previous article on Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), I downgraded the stock from \"buy\" to \"hold\", explaining that according to my models, Microsoft had reached a fair valuation when it was trading at $425.52 (which was 6.6% higher than my fair stock price estimate of $397.49). Furthermore, I suggested that the stock could reach a price of $701.68, translating into 10.50% annual returns throughout 2024-2029.Microsoft released Q3 2024 earnings on April 25. For that quarter, Microsoft reported an EPS of $2.94 (3.8% higher than estimated) and revenues of $61.9B (1.65% higher than estimated).After revising my valuation on Microsoft, I arrived at a near-term stock price target of $417.30, and a 2033 target of $1,099.90. The first number implies a 6.5% downside from the current stock price of $446.34, and the former, is 14.6% annual returns throughout 2024-2033 (which already sets Microsoft as an outperformer), furthermore, if Azure grows faster than the growth rate I used, Microsoft could become undervalued. Because of these reasons, I upgrade the stock from \"hold\" to \"buy\".OverviewGrowth PlanMicrosoft's recent growth primarily comes from its cloud business Azure. Microsoft has been doting Azure of AI capabilities by establishing new Data Centers, for instance, Microsoft is one of Nvidia Corporation's (NVDA) major clients.Microsoft also acquires businesses related to its already established segments, such as when it bought Activision Blizzard, which owns games such as the Call of Duty franchise, Diablo, and Overwatch 2. This acquisition brought up a lot of scrutiny from regulators (particularly from the UK) since it helped Microsoft to create a network effect with its Xbox platform (which dominates the gaming consoles market along with the PlayStation and the Nintendo Switch).How does Microsoft Compare Against Peers?Since Microsoft has too many segments, I will focus on the ones providing the most revenue: Cloud, Office Products and Licenses, and Windows OS.In the PaaS and IaaS cloud markets, Microsoft boasts a 24% market share, which puts Microsoft in second place behind Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) which holds 31%. However, what sets Microsoft apart is that its market share increased by 4% since 2020 when it was 20%. Meanwhile, Amazon's market share lost 1%.StatistaStatistaOn the other hand, Microsoft Office holds a 30% market share, which is behind Alphabet, Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL), which has 44%. This is because Google's Office version is free and enough for casual users such as students. However, Google Sheets (Google's version of Excel) lacks some crucial capabilities that Excel has.Lastly, Windows continues to dominate the PC OS market, holding an impressive 72.17% market share. In second place, it's Apple (AAPL) with a 15.42% market share.Industry Outlook & Addressable MarketThe productivity & business processes segment, comprises Office 365, on-premise office licenses, LinkedIn, and Dynamics 365 intelligent cloud. The business productivity market is expected to reach a $59.37B valuation in 2024 and $120.52B in 2029. This shows an annual CAGR of 15.29%.Meanwhile, the Worldwide Public Cloud market is expected to have a market volume of $282.2B in 2024, which should increase to $1.06T in 2028, thus showcasing an annual growth rate of 11.37%. This is the market in which Microsoft's intelligent cloud segment is. This segment offers Azure, SQL servers, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related licenses.Lastly, the \"More Personal Computing\" segment, agglomerates very diverse products such as the Windows OS, Microsoft Surface devices, HoloLens, XBOX, Microsoft Edge, Bing search engine, and PC accessories such as mice and keyboards.The worldwide gaming console market is expected to reach a $26.43B valuation for 2024 and $43.12B for 2029, translating into an 8.50% CAGR throughout that period.Then, the global PC Accessories market is expected to reach a $27.58B valuation in 2024 and $48.9B in 2029, which is a 12.13% CAGR.Then, I calculated Bing & Microsoft Edge TAM to estimate the expected total internet users. For 2024TTM, Google Search Engine has $188.85B in revenues, which divided by the total users of 4.29K, yields a result of $43.99 per user. For 2024, the total number of internet users is estimated to be 5.25B. For 2029, that number should increase to 6.58 B. Therefore, what I did is that I assumed that Microsoft (to compete) will maintain the same revenue per user as Google. This means that Bing's TAM for 2024 would stand at around $231.12B, and will increase to $289.45B by 2029. Which showcases a 4.21% CAGR throughout that period.With all these segments, Microsoft's current TAM is at $754.1B, and for 2029, the TAM should increase to $1.70T, which is a 21.11% annual growth. However, as was already expected, most of that TAM growth, comes from the Cloud because realistically, Microsoft Surface devices will have it difficult to grow, as well as PC accessories, and XBOX. After all, these three markets have what I will call \"an untouchable competitor\".In the case of PCs, if a programmer wants to program for Apple devices, he needs to do it in an Apple device (like a Mac), therefore entering the PC market for programmers is nearly impossible.Meanwhile, in the case of accessories, there are gamer brands, and Microsoft does not make gaming keyboards and mice.Lastly, for Xbox, the only way Microsoft would be able to concentrate the market is if Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:NTDOY) licenses its content to Microsoft, and that will never happen, since Nintendo knows that this exclusivity is its moat.SegmentsTAM 2024TAM 2029CAGR %Productivity & Business Processes59,270.0120,520.015.25%Intelligent Cloud282,200.01,060,000.015.66%Xbox26,430.643,120.7PC Accessories27,580.048,900.012.13%Bing & Microsoft Edge231,123.5289,454.24.21%Microsoft Surface Devices127,500.0147,386.53.69%Total754,104.11,709,381.321.11%CAGR%21.11%Click to enlargeValuationI will value Microsoft through a DCF model. The first thing to be calculated will be the WACC, which I calculated with the already-known formula (and you can find a more detailed formula in the DCF model). The result was 11.35%.Then, the D&A margin will be projected with a margin tied to revenue, which came out at 6.52%.Lastly, the CapEx margin throughout the projection will remain constant at 16.72%.TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONSEquity Market Price3,317,645.22Debt Value106,229.00Cost of Debt2.60%Tax Rate18.13%10y Treasury4.219%Beta1.18Market Return10.50%Cost of Equity11.63%CapEx39,547.00Capex Margin16.72%Net Income86,181.00Interest2,762.00Tax19,082.00D&A15,420.00EBITDA123,445.00D&A Margin6.52%Revenue236,584.0R&D Expense Margin17.05%Click to enlargeThe first thing is to calculate revenues, and the first segment I will calculate is Activision-Blizzard. For 2023, the now-acquired company generated $8.7B in revenues. Now, the problem is that it's impossible to predict which games are going to be a success and which not. Therefore, I will assume a conservative growth rate of 5.20%.Then, the productivity & business Processes, and Intelligent Cloud will grow in line with its market, by 15.25% and 15.66% respectively.Revenue of ActivisionProductivity & Business ProcessesIntelligent Cloud20238,706.069,275.087,902.320249,158.779,839.4101,667.820259,635.092,015.0117,589.0202610,136.0106,047.2136,003.4202710,663.1122,219.4157,301.5202811,217.5140,857.9181,935.0202911,800.8162,338.7210,426.0203013,480.1187,095.4243,378.7203115,398.3215,627.4281,491.8203216,493.1248,510.6325,573.4203317,665.8286,408.5376,558.2Growth Rate %5.20%15.25%15.66%Click to enlargeNow, starting with the \"More Personal Computing\" segment I found that Xbox sales totaled $15.46B for 2023. This segment will also grow in line with its market, 8.50%.On the other hand, Bing had a market share of around 10.53% in 2023 (which multiplied by the total amount of internet users in that year, means that Bing had around 543.13M users). After dividing the estimated $12.21B in revenue generated by Bing in 2023, I got that this division could be generating around $22.48 per user (which is lower than Google's $36.29). Then, I multiply that $22.48 in revenues per user by the estimated internet users to get the revenue estimates. This also yields a growth rate of 4.59% for 2023-2029 which I will use to project revenue for 2030-2033.Internet UsersBing's Share20245,254.00553.2520255,470.00575.9920265,690.00599.1620275,910.00622.3220286,350.00668.6620296,580.00692.87Click to enlargeMeanwhile, it's estimated that Microsoft Surface devices' sales tanked by 30% for 2023, which generated losses of up to $1.8B. By doing the rule of three, I found that Microsoft would have generated $6B in revenues for 2023. This segment will grow in line with the worldwide laptop market at 3.69%.Lastly, Windows operating system revenue is speculated to have been around $24.61B in 2023. This was calculated via the rule of three, since in 2023, Windows revenue fell by $3.2B which was 13%. Therefore, I calculated the 100% with that information. This segment will grow in line with the worldwide PC market at 1.13%.However, these calculations for 2023 say that Microsoft generated $63.35B for the \"More Personal Computing\" segment, which is substantially more than the reported $54.73B. Therefore, I will divide the $19.3B difference by the 5 subsegments, and then subtract the $3.806B result from each of them, so I can be able to correct the difference from the resulting segment result with the actual segment result.XboxPC AccessoriesBing & Microsoft EdgeMicrosoft Surface DevicesWindows Os202311,659.5211,672.528,403.522,193.5220,808.52202412,650.5813,088.4012,436.972,274.4621,043.66202513,725.8814,676.0212,948.282,358.3921,281.45202614,892.5816,456.2213,469.052,445.4121,521.93202716,158.4518,452.3613,989.822,535.6521,765.13202817,531.9220,690.6315,031.362,629.2122,011.07202919,022.1323,200.4015,575.812,726.2322,259.80203020,639.0126,014.6117,791.432,826.8322,511.33203122,393.3229,170.1920,322.222,931.1422,765.71203224,296.7632,708.5323,213.013,039.3023,022.97203326,361.9836,676.0726,515.013,151.4523,283.12Growth Rate %8.50%12.13%14.22%3.69%1.13%Click to enlargeThen, I will calculate net income. The first step is gross income, which I will maintain the current gross margin of 69.89%. Meanwhile, general expenses will be tied to full-time employees. In 2023 general expenses were $27.19B, which was divided by the number of employees at that time of 221K. This resulted in an expense per employee of $120K (this is also an indication that Microsoft pays goods). Then I will assume that Microsoft will hire 19.33K new workers annually, in line with 2021-2023.On the other hand, R&D expenses will be calculated with a margin tied to gross income, which currently stands at 17.05%.Then it's the time to calculate short & long-term debt and interest income & expenses. Short & long-term debt will have annual changes in line with their 2018-20222 performance of 26.4%, and -8.7% respectively. Meanwhile, marketable securities will be growing at a 4.2% annual rate.Then, I found that in 2019, when interest rates were lower than now, Microsoft paid a 3.11% interest on debt and received a 2.26% annual return on its marketable securities.However, for 2024TTM (when interest rates are high) Microsoft has paid a 2.60% interest on debt (yes, lower than when interest rates were lower) and has received a 5.67% return on marketable securities.So with this information, I will assume an interest on a debt payment of 2.60% throughout the project. Then I will assume that for 2024 and 2027 Microsoft will receive a 5.67% return on its marketable securities and for the other years, it will receive 2.26%. This is because I am expecting that for 2024 and 2027, interest rates will increase again. If you want to read the full explanation, you can check the valuation section of my article on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).Nevertheless, for 2030-2033, I will use the average marketable securities annual return of 3.96% (the average of 5.67% and 2.26%) since I have not made an interest rates projection for the years beyond 2029.Author's CalculationsRevenueNet IncomePlus TaxesPlus D&APlus Interest2024$252,160.0$96,208.66$121,411.75$137,846.96$140,091.072025$284,228.9$106,918.84$134,927.57$151,362.78$153,846.252026$320,971.8$121,768.87$153,667.72$174,587.92$177,522.652027$363,085.4$141,490.60$178,555.78$202,220.85$205,652.882028$411,904.6$159,289.99$201,017.91$227,864.90$231,956.742029$467,349.9$182,609.20$230,228.11$260,688.91$265,614.552030$533,737.4$211,816.29$267,304.04$302,091.82$308,071.132031$610,100.1$244,241.04$308,222.81$347,987.73$355,298.552032$696,857.7$281,168.43$354,823.73$400,243.31$409,236.742033$796,620.1$323,724.30$408,527.57$460,449.44$471,569.18^Final EBITA^Click to enlargeThen, I assume that current assets will grow at 1.72%, thus mirroring the performance during 2018-2022. Then, with this, I use the undiscounted cash flows highlighted in green and add the future equity value, which is composed of the future short & long-term debt, current assets, and marketable securities.Lastly, the perpetuity growth rate in the model is 1.82%. This number was calculated by dividing the resulting free cash flow growth rate from the projection (25.07%) and dividing it by the difference between it and the WACC of 11.35% (25.07%/(25.07%-11.35%)=1.82%).Author's CalculationsAs you can see, the model suggests that the stock (today) should be trading at $417.30, which is 6.5% below the current stock price of $446.34. For the future, the model suggests that the stock could be trading at $1,099.90 in 2033. Yes, that's a 146.4% upside from the current stock price, however when dividing that by the 10 years until the end of 2033, you get 14.6% annual returns.What if Azure could grow at 20-25% annually?If I increase Azure revenue growth from 15.66% to 20%, then the present fair price of Microsoft would be $484.22 (which is 8.5% above the current stock price), and a 2033 stock price target of $1,287.45 (which suggests 18.8% annual returns).Then, If I increase that 20% revenue growth to 25%, the present fair price increases to $600.74 and the future price to $1,617.07. The first number indicates a 34.6% undervaluation of Microsoft's stock, and the future price indicates 26.2% annual returns throughout 2033.But, is that possible?Since 2015, Intelligent Cloud has only surpassed the 30% growth rate in 2021. The average revenue growth rate of this segment has been 17.74%, which is slightly lower than the first 20% hypothetical scenario, and 7.26% lower than the second 25% hypothetical scenario.Annual Revenue of Microsoft's Intelligent CloudChange %2015236842016250405.73%2017274009.42%20183223017.63%20193899020.97%20204445014.00%20216000034.98%20227470024.50%20238693016.37%2024 TTM10085016.01%Click to enlargeIt's also worth noting that if I take out 2015 and 2016, the average Azure annual growth rate increases to 20.64%. However, the problem is that, in the past, when the cloud market was growing faster, Azure just achieved a growth rate of over 20% in 2019, 2021, and 2022. Thus, there's more probability that Azure will grow below the required 20% (which would make Microsoft undervalued by a mere 8.5%)Nevertheless, it's good that even with the 15.66% originally used in this projection, the suggested annual return of 14.6% is still above the historic 10.50% annual returns of the market, which sets Microsoft to be an outperformer, even if the stock price decreased by 6.5% to adjust to my fair stock price estimate of $417.30.Risks to ThesisThe main risk for my thesis is that Microsoft suddenly can achieve that high 30% growth rate that is required for a fair stock price of $496.21. This may be the reason why Microsoft's stock has been increasing past my fair stock price estimates because the optimism on Azure has passed the logical boundary.However, I think that there are more risks related to Microsoft than to my thesis, for example, Microsoft would have it very difficult to perform any big-scale acquisition such as the Activision one.Then, there is also the risk that Microsoft is more prone to lose market share than to gain it, yes Azure has grown its market share by 4% since 2020. However, that will be very difficult for Windows, or Microsoft Office. At best, what Microsoft could do is to boost the sales of Surface devices, however, the problem with that is the differentiation factor. What happened with IBM is that its PCs were made by third-party components to which the competition could also access, and then its computers lost ground to cheaper alternatives, and the same thing happens today.Evolution of My Fair Price EstimatesSince my first coverage on Microsoft, my fair price estimate has increased by 12.29%. Concerning my previous coverage, the reason for the increase from $397.49 to the present $417.30, the model I did in this article, covers 10 years, and not 6 as the previous one did. The main effect is that the total amount of cash flows increases in the model, which ultimately leads to an increased fair stock price.Author's CalculationsConclusionIn conclusion, Microsoft continues to be overvalued, however, Microsoft's current valuation (despite a 6.5% overvaluation) is a good point to enter (in my opinion) and wait for Azure to deliver higher returns than the 15.66% used for my estimates. The suggested annual returns in my base model are 14.6% (which already sets Microsoft as an outperformer against the market's 10.50% annual return average).Lastly, I assigned a near-term target for Microsoft's stock at $417.30, which is 6.5% below the current stock price of $446.34, and a 2033 stock price target at $1,099.90, which implies a 14.6% annual return throughout the 10 years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321747277246640,"gmtCreate":1719582064467,"gmtModify":1719582068517,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ATH Wait for next year, the chance to come or dump","listText":"ATH Wait for next year, the chance to come or dump","text":"ATH Wait for next year, the chance to come or dump","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321747277246640","repostId":"2446581837","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2446581837","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1719579600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2446581837?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-28 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple a Better Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity Than Nvidia Right Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2446581837","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Both of these stocks have massive AI tailwinds.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Apple has a huge opportunity in edge AI -- running AI on its devices.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia could continue to grow tremendously as more powerful AI technology requires faster AI chips.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia has been the bigger winner in recent years, but Apple could outperform going forward.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Apple</strong>&#39;s initial launch of the iPhone was arguably a once-in-a-generation investing opportunity. The world changed afterward -- and Apple&#39;s share price skyrocketed.</p><p>Many investors probably also view the introduction of ChatGPT as a once-in-a-generation investing opportunity with <strong>Nvidia</strong>. The demand for the company&#39;s graphics processing units (GPUs) in powering generative artificial intelligence (AI) applications took off and hasn&#39;t slowed since.</p><p>By definition, such moments with Apple and Nvidia are rare. However, no rule says a company can&#39;t have multiple game-changing catalysts during its lifetime. Perhaps both Apple and Nvidia are once again presenting once-in-a-generation opportunities. If so, is Apple a better pick than Nvidia for investors right now?</p><h2 id=\"id_514477193\">Apple&#39;s and Nvidia&#39;s new opportunities</h2><p>The &#34;new&#34; has long worn off the iPhone. Apple hasn&#39;t rolled out truly head-turning technology improvements to its popular smartphone in years. As a result, iPhone upgrades have slowed considerably.</p><p>However, Apple&#39;s introduction of its new AI capabilities (called Apple Intelligence) could be a major turning point. Thus far, most AI functionality has run in the cloud. With Apple Intelligence, though, AI runs locally on the company&#39;s devices.</p><p>This approach is known as edge AI. It could be a massive new market opportunity that some analysts believe will spur an iPhone upgrade super cycle.</p><p>Unsurprisingly, Nvidia&#39;s new opportunity is also related to AI, and it&#39;s more of an extension of the company&#39;s current opportunity than anything entirely new. Nvidia&#39;s next wave of growth could come from an acceleration of AI capabilities that achieves or comes close to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) -- a form of AI that matches or exceeds human-level performance.</p><p>More powerful AI systems will undoubtedly require more powerful AI chips. Nvidia&#39;s GPUs continue to set the bar for performance.</p><h2 id=\"id_164152323\">Potential scenarios</h2><p>How could these AI opportunities pan out for Apple and Nvidia? Let&#39;s look at two potential scenarios -- one optimistic and the other pessimistic.</p><p>In an optimistic future, Apple&#39;s customers will flock to upgrade their iPhones and iPads to take advantage of the company&#39;s new AI features. Apple will continue to add capabilities regularly, attracting new customers who switch from rival smartphones. The company will return to double-digit growth and its iPhone ecosystem will become more valuable than ever.</p><p>Nvidia will continue to launch faster and faster chips. The pace of the company&#39;s innovation will be so rapid that no competitor will be able to keep up. As AI grows more powerful, Nvidia&#39;s technology will enjoy increasingly greater demand. The company&#39;s revenue, profits, and share price will soar.</p><p>In the pessimistic scenario, however, customers will ultimately view Apple Intelligence as merely a novelty. There&#39;ll be an initial modest uptick in iPhone upgrades, but nothing more. Apple&#39;s growth will be sluggish, at best, and its stock will flounder for years as a once-great company loses its way.</p><p>As for Nvidia, AGI or anything close to it may prove to be much more difficult to achieve than imagined. Large language models (LLMs) will reach a plateau in capability, and the demand for AI chips will decline with companies not seeing the desired return on investment.</p><p>Meanwhile, Nvidia&#39;s rivals and large cloud customers will roll out their own chips that are less expensive and compare favorably on performance with Nvidia&#39;s GPUs. Nvidia&#39;s market share -- and share price -- will fall sharply.</p><h2 id=\"id_2598065434\">Apple or Nvidia?</h2><p>Nvidia has clearly been the better stock in recent years and so far in 2024. But could Apple deliver greater gains going forward? Maybe.</p><p>I think the optimistic scenario (or something fairly close to it) is more likely for Apple than the pessimistic scenario. Although Apple&#39;s valuation is high, it doesn&#39;t have nearly as much projected growth baked in as Nvidia&#39;s does.</p><p>Some aspects of the pessimistic scenario for Nvidia also seem quite possible. AGI could be much further away than some predict. Other chipmakers are already aiming to challenge Nvidia&#39;s AI chip dominance.</p><p>If the optimistic scenarios play out for both Apple and Nvidia, I believe Nvidia will continue to be the bigger winner. However, I think the pessimistic scenario is less likely for Apple than for Nvidia.</p><p>I won&#39;t claim unequivocally that Apple is a better once-in-a-generation investment opportunity than Nvidia. My view is that both stocks should perform well for long-term investors. But for more cautious investors, Apple looks like the better pick.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple a Better Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity Than Nvidia Right Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple a Better Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity Than Nvidia Right Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-28 21:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/27/is-apple-a-better-once-in-a-generation-investment/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple has a huge opportunity in edge AI -- running AI on its devices.Nvidia could continue to grow tremendously as more powerful AI technology requires faster AI chips.Nvidia has been the bigger ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/27/is-apple-a-better-once-in-a-generation-investment/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0368265764.SGD":"Blackrock World Gold Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","BK4588":"碎股","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0498741890.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Gold and Precious Metals A (acc) SGD","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0498741114.HKD":"FRANKLIN GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","AAPL":"苹果","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0055631609.USD":"贝莱德世界黄金基金A2","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/27/is-apple-a-better-once-in-a-generation-investment/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2446581837","content_text":"Apple has a huge opportunity in edge AI -- running AI on its devices.Nvidia could continue to grow tremendously as more powerful AI technology requires faster AI chips.Nvidia has been the bigger winner in recent years, but Apple could outperform going forward.Apple's initial launch of the iPhone was arguably a once-in-a-generation investing opportunity. The world changed afterward -- and Apple's share price skyrocketed.Many investors probably also view the introduction of ChatGPT as a once-in-a-generation investing opportunity with Nvidia. The demand for the company's graphics processing units (GPUs) in powering generative artificial intelligence (AI) applications took off and hasn't slowed since.By definition, such moments with Apple and Nvidia are rare. However, no rule says a company can't have multiple game-changing catalysts during its lifetime. Perhaps both Apple and Nvidia are once again presenting once-in-a-generation opportunities. If so, is Apple a better pick than Nvidia for investors right now?Apple's and Nvidia's new opportunitiesThe \"new\" has long worn off the iPhone. Apple hasn't rolled out truly head-turning technology improvements to its popular smartphone in years. As a result, iPhone upgrades have slowed considerably.However, Apple's introduction of its new AI capabilities (called Apple Intelligence) could be a major turning point. Thus far, most AI functionality has run in the cloud. With Apple Intelligence, though, AI runs locally on the company's devices.This approach is known as edge AI. It could be a massive new market opportunity that some analysts believe will spur an iPhone upgrade super cycle.Unsurprisingly, Nvidia's new opportunity is also related to AI, and it's more of an extension of the company's current opportunity than anything entirely new. Nvidia's next wave of growth could come from an acceleration of AI capabilities that achieves or comes close to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) -- a form of AI that matches or exceeds human-level performance.More powerful AI systems will undoubtedly require more powerful AI chips. Nvidia's GPUs continue to set the bar for performance.Potential scenariosHow could these AI opportunities pan out for Apple and Nvidia? Let's look at two potential scenarios -- one optimistic and the other pessimistic.In an optimistic future, Apple's customers will flock to upgrade their iPhones and iPads to take advantage of the company's new AI features. Apple will continue to add capabilities regularly, attracting new customers who switch from rival smartphones. The company will return to double-digit growth and its iPhone ecosystem will become more valuable than ever.Nvidia will continue to launch faster and faster chips. The pace of the company's innovation will be so rapid that no competitor will be able to keep up. As AI grows more powerful, Nvidia's technology will enjoy increasingly greater demand. The company's revenue, profits, and share price will soar.In the pessimistic scenario, however, customers will ultimately view Apple Intelligence as merely a novelty. There'll be an initial modest uptick in iPhone upgrades, but nothing more. Apple's growth will be sluggish, at best, and its stock will flounder for years as a once-great company loses its way.As for Nvidia, AGI or anything close to it may prove to be much more difficult to achieve than imagined. Large language models (LLMs) will reach a plateau in capability, and the demand for AI chips will decline with companies not seeing the desired return on investment.Meanwhile, Nvidia's rivals and large cloud customers will roll out their own chips that are less expensive and compare favorably on performance with Nvidia's GPUs. Nvidia's market share -- and share price -- will fall sharply.Apple or Nvidia?Nvidia has clearly been the better stock in recent years and so far in 2024. But could Apple deliver greater gains going forward? Maybe.I think the optimistic scenario (or something fairly close to it) is more likely for Apple than the pessimistic scenario. Although Apple's valuation is high, it doesn't have nearly as much projected growth baked in as Nvidia's does.Some aspects of the pessimistic scenario for Nvidia also seem quite possible. AGI could be much further away than some predict. Other chipmakers are already aiming to challenge Nvidia's AI chip dominance.If the optimistic scenarios play out for both Apple and Nvidia, I believe Nvidia will continue to be the bigger winner. However, I think the pessimistic scenario is less likely for Apple than for Nvidia.I won't claim unequivocally that Apple is a better once-in-a-generation investment opportunity than Nvidia. My view is that both stocks should perform well for long-term investors. But for more cautious investors, Apple looks like the better pick.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316926368170072,"gmtCreate":1718413643801,"gmtModify":1718413647362,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low balled by Apple","listText":"Low balled by Apple","text":"Low balled by Apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316926368170072","repostId":"2443987299","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316926125035576,"gmtCreate":1718413583872,"gmtModify":1718413587332,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Greed revealed","listText":"Greed revealed","text":"Greed revealed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316926125035576","repostId":"2443987299","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316319143465032,"gmtCreate":1718256174690,"gmtModify":1718256179738,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dont put apple together with nvidia. One Is self made, other is buy and self brand.","listText":"Dont put apple together with nvidia. One Is self made, other is buy and self brand.","text":"Dont put apple together with nvidia. One Is self made, other is buy and self brand.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316319143465032","repostId":"2443084599","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316312973385944,"gmtCreate":1718254557293,"gmtModify":1718256197105,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Say buy then say dont buy, so write something to tell you that not i say buy but also not i say dont buy when it moon.","listText":"Say buy then say dont buy, so write something to tell you that not i say buy but also not i say dont buy when it moon.","text":"Say buy then say dont buy, so write something to tell you that not i say buy but also not i say dont buy when it moon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316312973385944","repostId":"2443561786","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2443561786","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1718247600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2443561786?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-13 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Nvidia Stock a Buy After the 10-for-1 Stock Split?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2443561786","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Shares in this artificial intelligence titan have become significantly cheaper, but its massive market cap remains the same.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Stock splits can help make a company&#39;s shares more liquid and available for small investors.</p></li><li><p>While Nvidia remains an excellent company, new investors should be careful about a possible slowdown in chip demand.</p></li></ul><p>With shares up by an eyewatering 25,000% over the last 10 years, it&#39;s no surprise that <strong>Nvidia</strong> relies on stock splits to keep its equity price manageable for smaller investors who may not have access to fractional shares. The most recent of these went into effect on June 7 and gave investors 10 shares of Nvidia for each one they previously owned -- bringing its stock price to around $125 at the time of writing.</p><p>The stock split did nothing to change Nvidia&#39;s $3 trillion market cap, which represents the value of all its shares combined. However, some market participants are hopeful that the lower share price could make Nvidia&#39;s equity more liquid and help it maintain its explosive bull run. Let&#39;s dig deeper to decide if this technology giant is still a buy.</p><h2 id=\"id_2636510373\">What is Nvidia&#39;s bull thesis?</h2><p>If the generative artificial intelligence (AI) industry can be likened to the California gold rush, Nvidia would be selling the picks and shovels every miner needs to dig for gold. The company&#39;s industry-leading graphics processing units (GPUs) are crucial for running and training complex AI algorithms. And this has led to explosive growth and margins.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fcbb1205d3af7318b8e54343aa41a239\" tg-width=\"1209\" tg-height=\"810\"/></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s first-quarter revenue increased 262% year over year to $26 billion, driven by sales of data center chips, such as the H100. And net income jumped 628% to $14.88 billion.</p><p>Considering this elevated growth rate, Nvidia&#39;s stock is still reasonably valued at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 47. For comparison, rival chipmaker <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has the same forward P/E despite only growing sales by 2% in its first quarter. That said, Nvidia&#39;s stock might not be as cheap as it looks on the surface.</p><h2 id=\"id_1438623380\">Nvidia is not as cheap as it looks</h2><p>Over the next few years, Nvidia will face incredibly challenging comps. After enjoying booming sales over the previous 12 months, it will be difficult for the company to continue growing its revenue relative to extremely high prior-year numbers. And this might be a big reason why the stock&#39;s forward valuation is so low relative to growth.</p><p>Demand could become another problem. While Nvidia&#39;s picks-and-shovels take on the AI industry protects it from competition on the consumer side of the industry, it wouldn&#39;t be shielded from an industrywide slowdown, which could occur if its clients aren&#39;t able to generate enough cash flow to justify their spending on Nvidia chips.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e88eaa3c0ff6a29bee20df2669504822\" alt=\"Image source: Getty Images.\" title=\"Image source: Getty Images.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"594\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p>The long-term prospects of AI look undeniably bright. But there could be many ups and downs before it reaches its full potential -- just like other major technologies like the internet, electric vehicles, or even blockchain.</p><h2 id=\"id_2923381452\">Buy with caution</h2><p>For many retail investors, Nvidia&#39;s stock split will be a powerful psychological encouragement to buy the stock. At just $120 per share, the mammoth company now looks relatively small. And those who were previously intimidated by its four-digit stock price may now be encouraged to finally pull the trigger and hit the buy button.</p><p>But while Nvidia certainly has a bright future as the AI industry develops, investors who buy the stock now are late to the party. And this brings the risk of being left holding the bag if things go wrong.</p><p>Over the next few years, Nvidia will face more difficult comps, which could cause top- and bottom-line growth to slow down, even if the AI industry remains strong. While shares still look capable of outperforming over the long term, investors should remain aware of the significant risks they are taking by buying a company that has already risen so far so fast.</p><p>Historically, no stock has grown exponentially forever. And Nvidia will likely face a correction at some point. Be careful out there.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nvidia Stock a Buy After the 10-for-1 Stock Split?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nvidia Stock a Buy After the 10-for-1 Stock Split?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-13 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/12/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-after-10-for-1-stock-split/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock splits can help make a company's shares more liquid and available for small investors.While Nvidia remains an excellent company, new investors should be careful about a possible slowdown in chip...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/12/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-after-10-for-1-stock-split/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/12/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-after-10-for-1-stock-split/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2443561786","content_text":"Stock splits can help make a company's shares more liquid and available for small investors.While Nvidia remains an excellent company, new investors should be careful about a possible slowdown in chip demand.With shares up by an eyewatering 25,000% over the last 10 years, it's no surprise that Nvidia relies on stock splits to keep its equity price manageable for smaller investors who may not have access to fractional shares. The most recent of these went into effect on June 7 and gave investors 10 shares of Nvidia for each one they previously owned -- bringing its stock price to around $125 at the time of writing.The stock split did nothing to change Nvidia's $3 trillion market cap, which represents the value of all its shares combined. However, some market participants are hopeful that the lower share price could make Nvidia's equity more liquid and help it maintain its explosive bull run. Let's dig deeper to decide if this technology giant is still a buy.What is Nvidia's bull thesis?If the generative artificial intelligence (AI) industry can be likened to the California gold rush, Nvidia would be selling the picks and shovels every miner needs to dig for gold. The company's industry-leading graphics processing units (GPUs) are crucial for running and training complex AI algorithms. And this has led to explosive growth and margins.Nvidia's first-quarter revenue increased 262% year over year to $26 billion, driven by sales of data center chips, such as the H100. And net income jumped 628% to $14.88 billion.Considering this elevated growth rate, Nvidia's stock is still reasonably valued at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 47. For comparison, rival chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices has the same forward P/E despite only growing sales by 2% in its first quarter. That said, Nvidia's stock might not be as cheap as it looks on the surface.Nvidia is not as cheap as it looksOver the next few years, Nvidia will face incredibly challenging comps. After enjoying booming sales over the previous 12 months, it will be difficult for the company to continue growing its revenue relative to extremely high prior-year numbers. And this might be a big reason why the stock's forward valuation is so low relative to growth.Demand could become another problem. While Nvidia's picks-and-shovels take on the AI industry protects it from competition on the consumer side of the industry, it wouldn't be shielded from an industrywide slowdown, which could occur if its clients aren't able to generate enough cash flow to justify their spending on Nvidia chips.Image source: Getty Images.The long-term prospects of AI look undeniably bright. But there could be many ups and downs before it reaches its full potential -- just like other major technologies like the internet, electric vehicles, or even blockchain.Buy with cautionFor many retail investors, Nvidia's stock split will be a powerful psychological encouragement to buy the stock. At just $120 per share, the mammoth company now looks relatively small. And those who were previously intimidated by its four-digit stock price may now be encouraged to finally pull the trigger and hit the buy button.But while Nvidia certainly has a bright future as the AI industry develops, investors who buy the stock now are late to the party. And this brings the risk of being left holding the bag if things go wrong.Over the next few years, Nvidia will face more difficult comps, which could cause top- and bottom-line growth to slow down, even if the AI industry remains strong. While shares still look capable of outperforming over the long term, investors should remain aware of the significant risks they are taking by buying a company that has already risen so far so fast.Historically, no stock has grown exponentially forever. And Nvidia will likely face a correction at some point. Be careful out there.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315531703783488,"gmtCreate":1718065484501,"gmtModify":1718069357177,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They try to make it cheap so they can buy more, market manipulation at best","listText":"They try to make it cheap so they can buy more, market manipulation at best","text":"They try to make it cheap so they can buy more, market manipulation at best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315531703783488","repostId":"2442812204","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315352250642696,"gmtCreate":1718021758059,"gmtModify":1718022764618,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reuters love to repeats others' reports","listText":"Reuters love to repeats others' reports","text":"Reuters love to repeats others' reports","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315352250642696","repostId":"2442450845","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2442450845","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1718021371,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2442450845?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-10 20:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Sparks Chatter over Possible Dow Inclusion After Stock Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2442450845","media":"Reuters","summary":"Nvidia's 10-for-1 stock split aimed at luring retail investors has taken effect, sparking speculation over chances of the artificial intelligence bellwether's inclusion in the blue-chip Dow index.The ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia&#39;s 10-for-1 stock split aimed at luring retail investors has taken effect, sparking speculation over chances of the artificial intelligence bellwether&#39;s inclusion in the blue-chip Dow index.</p><p>The split, aimed at lowering per-share value to make it more affordable for employees and investors, increases the company&#39;s outstanding shares without changing the stock&#39;s valuation.</p><p>&#34;A side-effect of Nvidia&#39;s stock split will be to put it in the running to follow Amazon and Apple into the Dow, potentially pushing out fellow chip stock Intel that currently has the lowest weighting,&#34; said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at digital brokerage eToro.</p><p>The stock dipped 0.5% in premarket trading on Monday, after climbing nearly 27% since the company announced the share split and a strong forecast last month. The dominant AI chip maker had also clinched $3 trillion in market value and surpassed Apple</p><p>to become the second-most valuable firm in the world, trailing only Microsoft .</p><p>Market analysts said stock splits tend to attract individual investors that trade in smaller lots and have lesser capital to deploy than institutional investors.</p><p>However, Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin said in a note most recent stock splits have not generated a significant increase in retail trading activity, but there have been some notable exceptions such as Amazon&#39;s split in 2022 and Nvidia&#39;s 2021 split.</p><p>Moreover, &#34;investors typically assign higher valuations to liquid stocks because of their low trading costs and flexibility in a variety of market environments&#34;, the strategists said.</p><p>Over the last several years, trading volumes have briefly increased following stock split announcements but evidenced little change during and after the splits took effect, according to Goldman&#39;s analysis of 45 Russell 1000 stock splits since 2019.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s stock was last trading at $120 per share post split, compared with $1,200 on Friday, making it a potential contender for the 30-member price-weighted Dow index .</p><p>An S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices spokeswoman late in May said it does not comment or speculate on index additions or deletions.</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Sparks Chatter over Possible Dow Inclusion After Stock Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Sparks Chatter over Possible Dow Inclusion After Stock Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-10 20:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia&#39;s 10-for-1 stock split aimed at luring retail investors has taken effect, sparking speculation over chances of the artificial intelligence bellwether&#39;s inclusion in the blue-chip Dow index.</p><p>The split, aimed at lowering per-share value to make it more affordable for employees and investors, increases the company&#39;s outstanding shares without changing the stock&#39;s valuation.</p><p>&#34;A side-effect of Nvidia&#39;s stock split will be to put it in the running to follow Amazon and Apple into the Dow, potentially pushing out fellow chip stock Intel that currently has the lowest weighting,&#34; said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at digital brokerage eToro.</p><p>The stock dipped 0.5% in premarket trading on Monday, after climbing nearly 27% since the company announced the share split and a strong forecast last month. The dominant AI chip maker had also clinched $3 trillion in market value and surpassed Apple</p><p>to become the second-most valuable firm in the world, trailing only Microsoft .</p><p>Market analysts said stock splits tend to attract individual investors that trade in smaller lots and have lesser capital to deploy than institutional investors.</p><p>However, Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin said in a note most recent stock splits have not generated a significant increase in retail trading activity, but there have been some notable exceptions such as Amazon&#39;s split in 2022 and Nvidia&#39;s 2021 split.</p><p>Moreover, &#34;investors typically assign higher valuations to liquid stocks because of their low trading costs and flexibility in a variety of market environments&#34;, the strategists said.</p><p>Over the last several years, trading volumes have briefly increased following stock split announcements but evidenced little change during and after the splits took effect, according to Goldman&#39;s analysis of 45 Russell 1000 stock splits since 2019.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s stock was last trading at $120 per share post split, compared with $1,200 on Friday, making it a potential contender for the 30-member price-weighted Dow index .</p><p>An S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices spokeswoman late in May said it does not comment or speculate on index additions or deletions.</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2442450845","content_text":"Nvidia's 10-for-1 stock split aimed at luring retail investors has taken effect, sparking speculation over chances of the artificial intelligence bellwether's inclusion in the blue-chip Dow index.The split, aimed at lowering per-share value to make it more affordable for employees and investors, increases the company's outstanding shares without changing the stock's valuation.\"A side-effect of Nvidia's stock split will be to put it in the running to follow Amazon and Apple into the Dow, potentially pushing out fellow chip stock Intel that currently has the lowest weighting,\" said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at digital brokerage eToro.The stock dipped 0.5% in premarket trading on Monday, after climbing nearly 27% since the company announced the share split and a strong forecast last month. The dominant AI chip maker had also clinched $3 trillion in market value and surpassed Appleto become the second-most valuable firm in the world, trailing only Microsoft .Market analysts said stock splits tend to attract individual investors that trade in smaller lots and have lesser capital to deploy than institutional investors.However, Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin said in a note most recent stock splits have not generated a significant increase in retail trading activity, but there have been some notable exceptions such as Amazon's split in 2022 and Nvidia's 2021 split.Moreover, \"investors typically assign higher valuations to liquid stocks because of their low trading costs and flexibility in a variety of market environments\", the strategists said.Over the last several years, trading volumes have briefly increased following stock split announcements but evidenced little change during and after the splits took effect, according to Goldman's analysis of 45 Russell 1000 stock splits since 2019.Nvidia's stock was last trading at $120 per share post split, compared with $1,200 on Friday, making it a potential contender for the 30-member price-weighted Dow index .An S&P Dow Jones Indices spokeswoman late in May said it does not comment or speculate on index additions or deletions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":310403892015136,"gmtCreate":1716780737200,"gmtModify":1716781493929,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Repeating paragraph, sound like in school making the word count.","listText":"Repeating paragraph, sound like in school making the word count.","text":"Repeating paragraph, sound like in school making the word count.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/310403892015136","repostId":"1183549079","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":328064110473424,"gmtCreate":1721123840155,"gmtModify":1721123848652,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DJT\">$Trump Media &amp; Technology(DJT)$ </a>&nbsp; All pump in money for trump to cash out and fund his lobby, genius","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DJT\">$Trump Media &amp; Technology(DJT)$ </a>&nbsp; All pump in money for trump to cash out and fund his lobby, genius","text":"$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ All pump in money for trump to cash out and fund his lobby, genius","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328064110473424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321747277246640,"gmtCreate":1719582064467,"gmtModify":1719582068517,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ATH Wait for next year, the chance to come or dump","listText":"ATH Wait for next year, the chance to come or dump","text":"ATH Wait for next year, the chance to come or dump","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321747277246640","repostId":"2446581837","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323336534519896,"gmtCreate":1719969818471,"gmtModify":1719969822288,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"He let you know he trimmed to make everyone panic and jump ship, so as to lower the price for him to enter again. How futile.","listText":"He let you know he trimmed to make everyone panic and jump ship, so as to lower the price for him to enter again. How futile.","text":"He let you know he trimmed to make everyone panic and jump ship, so as to lower the price for him to enter again. How futile.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323336534519896","repostId":"2448167169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2448167169","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1719966945,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2448167169?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-03 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why This Fund Manager Trimmed His Nvidia Position - and Has a Warning About AI","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448167169","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"\"Nvidia dominates the market for graphics processing units  installed by data centers. GPUs are the core components of the generative-AI infrastructure, although many other companies are providing supporting equipment.\"The hypsecalers are buying on anticipated demand,\" Ludan said. But he countered that point by saying he believed Tesla Inc. $$, and xAI  were \"incrementally positive drivers\" for Nvidia during its most recent reported fiscal quarter ended April 28. (The Buffalo Large Cap Fund had ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As Nvidia Corp. has maintained a streak of hitting quarterly revenue and profit numbers out of the park, what might be lost to investors is that so much of the action around generative artificial intelligence still hinges on the build-out of computing infrastructure, rather than demand for products and services making use of the technology. Ken Laudan of Buffalo Funds is worried about that.</p><p>&#34;I am growing concerned that the handoff from AI enablers to adopters will take much longer than I had previously anticipated,&#34; he said during an interview with MarketWatch.</p><p>Laudan manages the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, which is rated four stars (out of five) within Morningstar&#39;s &#34;Large Growth&#34; category.</p><p>Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a> remains an obvious play among companies helping data centers build the computing capacity needed to support their corporate clients&#39; development of products and services that develop generative AI. Laudan calls the companies supplying the needed hardware &#34;AI enablers.&#34; When interviewed in February, he said that &#34;maybe in 2025&#34; investors would begin paying more attention to &#34;AI adopters,&#34; which he defined as &#34;software-centric companies that sell a large-language AI model on top of their enterprise or vertical software stock to their clients.&#34;</p><p>But he has since changed his mind.</p><p>From numbers supplied by FactSet, as well as guidance from Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$(AMD)$</a> and Broadcom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>, Laudan estimated in a follow-up email that, from January 2023 through the end of 2024, cumulative spending &#34;for the silicon (chip) portion of AI&#34; would exceed $200 billion.</p><p>He estimated that &#34;hyperscalers&#34; investing heavily in AI equipment, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc. (META), eventually would need to generate an annualized $300 billion in annual revenue &#34;just to be gross-margin neutral to their existing cloud-hosting business.&#34;</p><p>He clarified that the $300 billion figure would cover &#34;application revenues paid to the hyperscalers from their enterprise customers or other AI companies,&#34; and said that figure compared with $3 billion in cumulative AI &#34;application&#34; revenue estimated by Sequoia Ventures in April. You can watch that presentation here.</p><p>Boiling down the warning about AI spending and a delayed payoff</p><p>Laudan asked: &#34;When will hyperscalers - which represent 53% of Nvidia&#39;s revenues - begin to base GPU purchases on end-user demand, rather than buying them on anticipated demand?&#34;</p><p>Nvidia dominates the market for graphics processing units (GPUs) installed by data centers. GPUs are the core components of the generative-AI infrastructure, although many other companies are providing supporting equipment.</p><p>&#34;The hypsecalers are buying on anticipated demand,&#34; Ludan said. But he countered that point by saying he believed Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, and xAI (founded by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year) were &#34;incrementally positive drivers&#34; for Nvidia during its most recent reported fiscal quarter ended April 28. (The Buffalo Large Cap Fund had a small position in Tesla as of March 31.)</p><p>He said that an institutional investor had raised the point that companies such as Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> and Alphabet Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$(GOOG)$</a> couldn&#39;t afford to be left behind during the AI-infrastructure buildup.</p><p>&#34;How much can investors tolerate?&#34; Laudan wondered. &#34;If there is a big hit to gross margins, investors will not tolerate this for five years. At some point the spark is going to go off,&#34; he said.</p><p>Laudan said investors need to see &#34;hyperscalers dramatically shift&#34; so the gap between AI infrastructure spending spend and AI adopter revenue begins to close &#34;dramatically.&#34;</p><p>&#34;But I am not seeing data points that are leading indicators that that will happen,&#34; he said. He expects to see clearer indications - positive or negative - over the next 12 months.</p><p>How Laudan is heeding his own warning</p><p>The Buffalo Large Cap Fund tends to hold about 70 stocks. Net of expenses, which total 0.95% of assets under management annually, the fund&#39;s investor shares have returned 22% this year, slightly ahead of its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Growth Index RLG, and ahead of the 15.6% return for the S&amp;P 500 SPX. (All returns in this article include reinvested dividends.)</p><p>Broadly, Laudan said he was &#34;trimming where I need to in the AI ecosystem, staying overweight in industrials and healthcare (relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index), and looking at some of the beaten-up large-cap software names.&#34;</p><p>He said he had reduced the fund&#39;s holdings of Nvidia, which made up 7% of the fund&#39;s portfolio as of March 31. He also reduced the fund&#39;s holdings of AMD &#34;a bit&#34; and sold some shares of Coherent Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">$(COHR)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTG\">Pure Storage Inc</a>. (PSTG), two alternative AI plays he mentioned during the February interview with MarketWatch.</p><p>Microsoft Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a> was the largest holding of the Buffalo Large Cap Fund as of March 31, with an 11% allocation. The stock has returned 22% this year, and software companies in the S&amp;P 500 have returned a weighted 16.9%, according to FactSet.</p><p>Beyond the world of tech and AI, Laudan appreciates &#34;industrial compounders,&#34; such as GE Aerospace <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">$(GE)$</a>, Xylem Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYL\">$(XYL)$</a> and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAB\">$(WAB)$</a>, also known as Wabtec.</p><p>Within healthcare, Laudan still likes Eli Lilly &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$(LLY)$</a>, which reported a 26% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales as demand soared for its GLP-1 weight-loss medications.</p><p>Other healthcare names Laudan listed as favorable included Abbott Laboratories <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">$(ABT)$</a>, DexCom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXCM\">$(DXCM)$</a> and AstraZeneca PLC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">$(AZN)$</a>, along with Merck &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a>, which he said he had added to the portfolio recently.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why This Fund Manager Trimmed His Nvidia Position - and Has a Warning About AI</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy This Fund Manager Trimmed His Nvidia Position - and Has a Warning About AI\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-03 08:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>As Nvidia Corp. has maintained a streak of hitting quarterly revenue and profit numbers out of the park, what might be lost to investors is that so much of the action around generative artificial intelligence still hinges on the build-out of computing infrastructure, rather than demand for products and services making use of the technology. Ken Laudan of Buffalo Funds is worried about that.</p><p>&#34;I am growing concerned that the handoff from AI enablers to adopters will take much longer than I had previously anticipated,&#34; he said during an interview with MarketWatch.</p><p>Laudan manages the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, which is rated four stars (out of five) within Morningstar&#39;s &#34;Large Growth&#34; category.</p><p>Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a> remains an obvious play among companies helping data centers build the computing capacity needed to support their corporate clients&#39; development of products and services that develop generative AI. Laudan calls the companies supplying the needed hardware &#34;AI enablers.&#34; When interviewed in February, he said that &#34;maybe in 2025&#34; investors would begin paying more attention to &#34;AI adopters,&#34; which he defined as &#34;software-centric companies that sell a large-language AI model on top of their enterprise or vertical software stock to their clients.&#34;</p><p>But he has since changed his mind.</p><p>From numbers supplied by FactSet, as well as guidance from Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$(AMD)$</a> and Broadcom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>, Laudan estimated in a follow-up email that, from January 2023 through the end of 2024, cumulative spending &#34;for the silicon (chip) portion of AI&#34; would exceed $200 billion.</p><p>He estimated that &#34;hyperscalers&#34; investing heavily in AI equipment, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc. (META), eventually would need to generate an annualized $300 billion in annual revenue &#34;just to be gross-margin neutral to their existing cloud-hosting business.&#34;</p><p>He clarified that the $300 billion figure would cover &#34;application revenues paid to the hyperscalers from their enterprise customers or other AI companies,&#34; and said that figure compared with $3 billion in cumulative AI &#34;application&#34; revenue estimated by Sequoia Ventures in April. You can watch that presentation here.</p><p>Boiling down the warning about AI spending and a delayed payoff</p><p>Laudan asked: &#34;When will hyperscalers - which represent 53% of Nvidia&#39;s revenues - begin to base GPU purchases on end-user demand, rather than buying them on anticipated demand?&#34;</p><p>Nvidia dominates the market for graphics processing units (GPUs) installed by data centers. GPUs are the core components of the generative-AI infrastructure, although many other companies are providing supporting equipment.</p><p>&#34;The hypsecalers are buying on anticipated demand,&#34; Ludan said. But he countered that point by saying he believed Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, and xAI (founded by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year) were &#34;incrementally positive drivers&#34; for Nvidia during its most recent reported fiscal quarter ended April 28. (The Buffalo Large Cap Fund had a small position in Tesla as of March 31.)</p><p>He said that an institutional investor had raised the point that companies such as Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> and Alphabet Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$(GOOG)$</a> couldn&#39;t afford to be left behind during the AI-infrastructure buildup.</p><p>&#34;How much can investors tolerate?&#34; Laudan wondered. &#34;If there is a big hit to gross margins, investors will not tolerate this for five years. At some point the spark is going to go off,&#34; he said.</p><p>Laudan said investors need to see &#34;hyperscalers dramatically shift&#34; so the gap between AI infrastructure spending spend and AI adopter revenue begins to close &#34;dramatically.&#34;</p><p>&#34;But I am not seeing data points that are leading indicators that that will happen,&#34; he said. He expects to see clearer indications - positive or negative - over the next 12 months.</p><p>How Laudan is heeding his own warning</p><p>The Buffalo Large Cap Fund tends to hold about 70 stocks. Net of expenses, which total 0.95% of assets under management annually, the fund&#39;s investor shares have returned 22% this year, slightly ahead of its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Growth Index RLG, and ahead of the 15.6% return for the S&amp;P 500 SPX. (All returns in this article include reinvested dividends.)</p><p>Broadly, Laudan said he was &#34;trimming where I need to in the AI ecosystem, staying overweight in industrials and healthcare (relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index), and looking at some of the beaten-up large-cap software names.&#34;</p><p>He said he had reduced the fund&#39;s holdings of Nvidia, which made up 7% of the fund&#39;s portfolio as of March 31. He also reduced the fund&#39;s holdings of AMD &#34;a bit&#34; and sold some shares of Coherent Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">$(COHR)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTG\">Pure Storage Inc</a>. (PSTG), two alternative AI plays he mentioned during the February interview with MarketWatch.</p><p>Microsoft Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a> was the largest holding of the Buffalo Large Cap Fund as of March 31, with an 11% allocation. The stock has returned 22% this year, and software companies in the S&amp;P 500 have returned a weighted 16.9%, according to FactSet.</p><p>Beyond the world of tech and AI, Laudan appreciates &#34;industrial compounders,&#34; such as GE Aerospace <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">$(GE)$</a>, Xylem Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYL\">$(XYL)$</a> and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAB\">$(WAB)$</a>, also known as Wabtec.</p><p>Within healthcare, Laudan still likes Eli Lilly &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$(LLY)$</a>, which reported a 26% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales as demand soared for its GLP-1 weight-loss medications.</p><p>Other healthcare names Laudan listed as favorable included Abbott Laboratories <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">$(ABT)$</a>, DexCom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXCM\">$(DXCM)$</a> and AstraZeneca PLC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">$(AZN)$</a>, along with Merck &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a>, which he said he had added to the portfolio recently.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4148":"电子元件","LU0058720904.USD":"联博国际健康护理基金A","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE0002141913.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I2\" (USD) ACC","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","IE00BJJMRZ35.SGD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001176.SGD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE \"SGD\" (ACC)","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1023059063.AUD":"BGF WORLD HEALTHSCIENCE \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0289739699.SGD":"AB INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0320765992.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Biotechnology Discovery A Acc SGD","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2448167169","content_text":"As Nvidia Corp. has maintained a streak of hitting quarterly revenue and profit numbers out of the park, what might be lost to investors is that so much of the action around generative artificial intelligence still hinges on the build-out of computing infrastructure, rather than demand for products and services making use of the technology. Ken Laudan of Buffalo Funds is worried about that.\"I am growing concerned that the handoff from AI enablers to adopters will take much longer than I had previously anticipated,\" he said during an interview with MarketWatch.Laudan manages the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, which is rated four stars (out of five) within Morningstar's \"Large Growth\" category.Nvidia $(NVDA)$ remains an obvious play among companies helping data centers build the computing capacity needed to support their corporate clients' development of products and services that develop generative AI. Laudan calls the companies supplying the needed hardware \"AI enablers.\" When interviewed in February, he said that \"maybe in 2025\" investors would begin paying more attention to \"AI adopters,\" which he defined as \"software-centric companies that sell a large-language AI model on top of their enterprise or vertical software stock to their clients.\"But he has since changed his mind.From numbers supplied by FactSet, as well as guidance from Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. $(AMD)$ and Broadcom Inc. $(AVGO)$, Laudan estimated in a follow-up email that, from January 2023 through the end of 2024, cumulative spending \"for the silicon (chip) portion of AI\" would exceed $200 billion.He estimated that \"hyperscalers\" investing heavily in AI equipment, such as Meta Platforms Inc. (META), eventually would need to generate an annualized $300 billion in annual revenue \"just to be gross-margin neutral to their existing cloud-hosting business.\"He clarified that the $300 billion figure would cover \"application revenues paid to the hyperscalers from their enterprise customers or other AI companies,\" and said that figure compared with $3 billion in cumulative AI \"application\" revenue estimated by Sequoia Ventures in April. You can watch that presentation here.Boiling down the warning about AI spending and a delayed payoffLaudan asked: \"When will hyperscalers - which represent 53% of Nvidia's revenues - begin to base GPU purchases on end-user demand, rather than buying them on anticipated demand?\"Nvidia dominates the market for graphics processing units (GPUs) installed by data centers. GPUs are the core components of the generative-AI infrastructure, although many other companies are providing supporting equipment.\"The hypsecalers are buying on anticipated demand,\" Ludan said. But he countered that point by saying he believed Tesla Inc. $(TSLA)$, and xAI (founded by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year) were \"incrementally positive drivers\" for Nvidia during its most recent reported fiscal quarter ended April 28. (The Buffalo Large Cap Fund had a small position in Tesla as of March 31.)He said that an institutional investor had raised the point that companies such as Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$ and Alphabet Inc. $(GOOGL)$ $(GOOG)$ couldn't afford to be left behind during the AI-infrastructure buildup.\"How much can investors tolerate?\" Laudan wondered. \"If there is a big hit to gross margins, investors will not tolerate this for five years. At some point the spark is going to go off,\" he said.Laudan said investors need to see \"hyperscalers dramatically shift\" so the gap between AI infrastructure spending spend and AI adopter revenue begins to close \"dramatically.\"\"But I am not seeing data points that are leading indicators that that will happen,\" he said. He expects to see clearer indications - positive or negative - over the next 12 months.How Laudan is heeding his own warningThe Buffalo Large Cap Fund tends to hold about 70 stocks. Net of expenses, which total 0.95% of assets under management annually, the fund's investor shares have returned 22% this year, slightly ahead of its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Growth Index RLG, and ahead of the 15.6% return for the S&P 500 SPX. (All returns in this article include reinvested dividends.)Broadly, Laudan said he was \"trimming where I need to in the AI ecosystem, staying overweight in industrials and healthcare (relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index), and looking at some of the beaten-up large-cap software names.\"He said he had reduced the fund's holdings of Nvidia, which made up 7% of the fund's portfolio as of March 31. He also reduced the fund's holdings of AMD \"a bit\" and sold some shares of Coherent Corp. $(COHR)$ and Pure Storage Inc. (PSTG), two alternative AI plays he mentioned during the February interview with MarketWatch.Microsoft Corp. $(MSFT)$ was the largest holding of the Buffalo Large Cap Fund as of March 31, with an 11% allocation. The stock has returned 22% this year, and software companies in the S&P 500 have returned a weighted 16.9%, according to FactSet.Beyond the world of tech and AI, Laudan appreciates \"industrial compounders,\" such as GE Aerospace $(GE)$, Xylem Inc. $(XYL)$ and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. $(WAB)$, also known as Wabtec.Within healthcare, Laudan still likes Eli Lilly & Co. $(LLY)$, which reported a 26% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales as demand soared for its GLP-1 weight-loss medications.Other healthcare names Laudan listed as favorable included Abbott Laboratories $(ABT)$, DexCom Inc. $(DXCM)$ and AstraZeneca PLC $(AZN)$, along with Merck & Co. $(MRK)$, which he said he had added to the portfolio recently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326360745316520,"gmtCreate":1720702084171,"gmtModify":1720702087949,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please post accurate not just rise 4% thats it, it still moving.","listText":"Please post accurate not just rise 4% thats it, it still moving.","text":"Please post accurate not just rise 4% thats it, it still moving.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326360745316520","repostId":"2450026356","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2450026356","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1720700368,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2450026356?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-11 20:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"MicroStrategy Rises After It Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2450026356","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"July 11 (Reuters) - MicroStrategy    said on Thursday its board of directors has decided in favor of a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A and class B common stock.  (Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)((Manya.Saini@thomsonreuters.com; X: manya__saini;))","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>MicroStrategy is set to execute a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A common stock and class B common stock “to make its stock more accessible to investors and employees.”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The stock split will be effected via a stock dividend to the holders of record of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock and class B common stock as of the close of business on August 1, 2024, the record date for the dividend. The stock dividend will not have any impact on the voting and other rights of stockholders.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As a result, each holder of a share of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock and class B common will each receive nine additional shares of class A common stock and B common stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In each case, the shares are expected to be distributed after the close of trading on August 7, 2024. Trading is expected to commence on a split-adjusted basis at market open on August 8, 2024.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of the company rose 4% in premarket trading.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f44ff16f0e59ec31bbd16c241e24aac\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"451\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MicroStrategy Rises After It Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicroStrategy Rises After It Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-11 20:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123596-microstrategy-to-execute-10-for-1-stock-split><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MicroStrategy is set to execute a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A common stock and class B common stock “to make its stock more accessible to investors and employees.”The stock split will be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123596-microstrategy-to-execute-10-for-1-stock-split\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSTR":"MicroStrategy"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123596-microstrategy-to-execute-10-for-1-stock-split","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2450026356","content_text":"MicroStrategy is set to execute a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A common stock and class B common stock “to make its stock more accessible to investors and employees.”The stock split will be effected via a stock dividend to the holders of record of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock and class B common stock as of the close of business on August 1, 2024, the record date for the dividend. The stock dividend will not have any impact on the voting and other rights of stockholders.As a result, each holder of a share of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock and class B common will each receive nine additional shares of class A common stock and B common stock.In each case, the shares are expected to be distributed after the close of trading on August 7, 2024. Trading is expected to commence on a split-adjusted basis at market open on August 8, 2024.U.S.-listed shares of the company rose 4% in premarket trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322800752656488,"gmtCreate":1719839138405,"gmtModify":1719839143466,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why not say 20 years 30 years 40 years, so shallow just making the word counts. High school essay. 10 years later will just rebuff as speculation. Eating the essay soon?","listText":"Why not say 20 years 30 years 40 years, so shallow just making the word counts. High school essay. 10 years later will just rebuff as speculation. Eating the essay soon?","text":"Why not say 20 years 30 years 40 years, so shallow just making the word counts. High school essay. 10 years later will just rebuff as speculation. Eating the essay soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322800752656488","repostId":"2447608276","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2447608276","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1719813642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2447608276?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-01 14:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Currently Overvalued, But It's Set To Be A Potential Outperformer Throughout 2033","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2447608276","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Since Microsoft has too many segments, I will focus on the ones providing the most revenue: Cloud, Office Products and Licenses, and Windows OS. In the PaaS and IaaS cloud markets, Microsoft boasts a 24% market share, which puts Microsoft in second place behind Amazon.com, Inc.  which holds 31%. However, what sets Microsoft apart is that its market share increased by 4% since 2020 when it was 20%. Meanwhile, Amazon's market share lost 1%. Statista Statista On the other ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Microsoft&#39;s valuation is upgraded from &#34;hold&#34; to &#34;buy&#34; with a near-term target of $417.30 and a 2033 target of $1,099.90, implying 14.6% annual returns.</p></li><li><p>The Company&#39;s growth is driven by its cloud business (Azure), and acquisitions like Activision-Blizzard.</p></li><li><p>MSFT holds a 24% cloud market share (second to Amazon&#39;s 31%) and dominates with a 72.17% share in the PC OS market.</p></li><li><p>Microsoft&#39;s TAM is expected to grow from $754.1B in 2024 to $1.70T by 2029, with the cloud segment driving most of the growth.</p></li><li><p>The valuation (which uses a DCF model) suggests 14.6% annual returns throughout 2033 (and could be higher if Azure grows faster than expected).</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/993d2dbd835b83c14174232aa462c917\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"538\"/></p><p>InnaFelker</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1050932963\">Thesis</h2><p>In my previous article on Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), I downgraded the stock from &#34;buy&#34; to &#34;hold&#34;, explaining that according to my models, Microsoft had reached a fair valuation when it was trading at $425.52 (which was 6.6% higher than my fair stock price estimate of $397.49). Furthermore, I suggested that the stock could reach a price of $701.68, translating into 10.50% annual returns throughout 2024-2029.</p><p>Microsoft released Q3 2024 earnings on April 25. For that quarter, Microsoft reported an EPS of $2.94 (3.8% higher than estimated) and revenues of $61.9B (1.65% higher than estimated).</p><p>After revising my valuation on Microsoft, I arrived at a near-term stock price target of $417.30, and a 2033 target of $1,099.90. The first number implies a 6.5% downside from the current stock price of $446.34, and the former, is 14.6% annual returns throughout 2024-2033 (which already sets Microsoft as an outperformer), furthermore, if Azure grows faster than the growth rate I used, Microsoft could become undervalued. Because of these reasons, I upgrade the stock from &#34;hold&#34; to &#34;buy&#34;.</p><h2 id=\"id_2779944536\">Overview</h2><h4 id=\"id_747025263\">Growth Plan</h4><p>Microsoft&#39;s recent growth primarily comes from its cloud business Azure. Microsoft has been doting Azure of AI capabilities by establishing new Data Centers, for instance, Microsoft is one of Nvidia Corporation&#39;s (NVDA) major clients.</p><p>Microsoft also acquires businesses related to its already established segments, such as when it bought Activision Blizzard, which owns games such as the Call of Duty franchise, Diablo, and Overwatch 2. This acquisition brought up a lot of scrutiny from regulators (particularly from the UK) since it helped Microsoft to create a network effect with its Xbox platform (which dominates the gaming consoles market along with the PlayStation and the Nintendo Switch).</p><h4 id=\"id_661735772\">How does Microsoft Compare Against Peers?</h4><p>Since Microsoft has too many segments, I will focus on the ones providing the most revenue: Cloud, Office Products and Licenses, and Windows OS.</p><p>In the PaaS and IaaS cloud markets, Microsoft boasts a 24% market share, which puts Microsoft in second place behind Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) which holds 31%. However, what sets Microsoft apart is that its market share increased by 4% since 2020 when it was 20%. Meanwhile, Amazon&#39;s market share lost 1%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ffaaa09600ecd94158b7f3d669e06f9\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"1200\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4cce7f5e06bcaeb53b641bc7ad3f71e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p></p><p>On the other hand, Microsoft Office holds a 30% market share, which is behind Alphabet, Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL), which has 44%. This is because Google&#39;s Office version is free and enough for casual users such as students. However, Google Sheets (Google&#39;s version of Excel) lacks some crucial capabilities that Excel has.</p><p>Lastly, Windows continues to dominate the PC OS market, holding an impressive 72.17% market share. In second place, it&#39;s Apple (AAPL) with a 15.42% market share.</p><h4 id=\"id_166055940\">Industry Outlook &amp; Addressable Market</h4><p>The productivity &amp; business processes segment, comprises Office 365, on-premise office licenses, LinkedIn, and Dynamics 365 intelligent cloud. The business productivity market is expected to reach a $59.37B valuation in 2024 and $120.52B in 2029. This shows an annual CAGR of 15.29%.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Worldwide Public Cloud market is expected to have a market volume of $282.2B in 2024, which should increase to $1.06T in 2028, thus showcasing an annual growth rate of 11.37%. This is the market in which Microsoft&#39;s intelligent cloud segment is. This segment offers Azure, SQL servers, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related licenses.</p><p>Lastly, the &#34;<strong>More Personal Computing</strong>&#34; segment, agglomerates very diverse products such as the Windows OS, Microsoft Surface devices, HoloLens, XBOX, Microsoft Edge, Bing search engine, and PC accessories such as mice and keyboards.</p><p>The worldwide gaming console market is expected to reach a $26.43B valuation for 2024 and $43.12B for 2029, translating into an 8.50% CAGR throughout that period.</p><p>Then, the global PC Accessories market is expected to reach a $27.58B valuation in 2024 and $48.9B in 2029, which is a 12.13% CAGR.</p><p>Then, I calculated Bing &amp; Microsoft Edge TAM to estimate the expected total internet users. For 2024TTM, Google Search Engine <strong>has $188.85B in revenues</strong>, which <strong>divided by</strong> the total <strong>users of 4.29K</strong>, yields a result of <strong>$43.99 per user</strong>. For 2024, the total <strong>number of internet users is estimated to be 5.25B</strong>. For 2029, that number should increase to 6.58 B. Therefore, what I did is that I assumed that Microsoft (to compete) will <strong>maintain the same revenue per user as Google</strong>. This means that Bing&#39;s TAM for 2024 would stand at around $231.12B, and will increase to $289.45B by 2029. Which <strong>showcases a 4.21% CAGR throughout that period</strong>.</p><p>With all these segments, Microsoft&#39;s <strong>current TAM is at $754.1B</strong>, and <strong>for 2029, the TAM should increase to $1.70T</strong>, which <strong>is a 21.11% annual growth</strong>. However, as was already expected, most of that TAM growth, comes from the Cloud because realistically, Microsoft Surface devices will have it difficult to grow, as well as PC accessories, and XBOX. After all, these three markets have what I will call &#34;an untouchable competitor&#34;.</p><p>In the case of PCs, if a programmer wants to program for Apple devices, he needs to do it in an Apple device (like a Mac), therefore entering the PC market for programmers is nearly impossible.</p><p>Meanwhile, in the case of accessories, there are gamer brands, and Microsoft does not make gaming keyboards and mice.</p><p>Lastly, for Xbox, the only way Microsoft would be able to concentrate the market is if Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:NTDOY) licenses its content to Microsoft, and that will never happen, since Nintendo knows that this exclusivity is its moat.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Segments</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>TAM 2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>TAM 2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>CAGR %</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Productivity &amp; Business Processes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59,270.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>120,520.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Intelligent Cloud</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>282,200.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1,060,000.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Xbox</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26,430.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43,120.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>PC Accessories</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27,580.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48,900.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.13%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Bing &amp; Microsoft Edge</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>231,123.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>289,454.2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.21%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Microsoft Surface Devices</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>127,500.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>147,386.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Total</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>754,104.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1,709,381.3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21.11%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>CAGR%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21.11%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_2883581705\">Valuation</h2><p>I will value Microsoft through a DCF model. The first thing to be calculated will be the WACC, which I calculated with the already-known formula (and you can find a more detailed formula in the DCF model). The result was 11.35%.</p><p>Then, the D&amp;A margin will be projected with a margin tied to revenue, which came out at 6.52%.</p><p>Lastly, the CapEx margin throughout the projection will remain constant at 16.72%.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"2\" style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Equity Market Price</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,317,645.22</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Debt Value</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>106,229.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Cost of Debt</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Tax Rate</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18.13%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10y Treasury</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.219%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Beta</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.18</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Market Return</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Cost of Equity</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11.63%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>CapEx</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39,547.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Capex Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.72%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Net Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>86,181.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Interest</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,762.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Tax</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,082.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>D&amp;A</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,420.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBITDA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>123,445.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>D&amp;A Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>236,584.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>R&amp;D Expense Margin</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17.05%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>The first thing is to calculate revenues, and the first segment I will calculate is <strong>Activision-Blizzard</strong>. For 2023, the now-acquired company generated $8.7B in revenues. Now, the problem is that it&#39;s impossible to predict which games are going to be a success and which not. Therefore, I will assume a conservative growth rate of 5.20%.</p><p>Then, the <strong>productivity &amp; business Processes,</strong> and <strong>Intelligent Cloud</strong> will grow in line with its market, by 15.25% and 15.66% respectively.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue of Activision</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Productivity &amp; Business Processes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Intelligent Cloud</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,706.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>69,275.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>87,902.3</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9,158.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>79,839.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>101,667.8</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9,635.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>92,015.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>117,589.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,136.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>106,047.2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>136,003.4</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,663.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>122,219.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>157,301.5</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,217.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>140,857.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>181,935.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,800.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>162,338.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>210,426.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,480.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>187,095.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>243,378.7</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,398.3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>215,627.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>281,491.8</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2032</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16,493.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>248,510.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>325,573.4</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2033</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17,665.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>286,408.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>376,558.2</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Growth Rate %</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.66%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Now, starting with the &#34;More Personal Computing&#34; segment I found that <strong>Xbox</strong> sales totaled $15.46B for 2023. This segment will also grow in line with its market, 8.50%.</p><p>On the other hand, <strong>Bing</strong> had a <strong>market share of around 10.53%</strong> in 2023 (which multiplied by the total amount of internet users in that year, means that Bing had around <strong>543.13M users</strong>). After dividing the estimated $12.21B in revenue generated by Bing in 2023, I got that this division could be generating <strong>around $22.48 per user</strong> (which is lower than Google&#39;s $36.29). Then, I multiply that $22.48 in revenues per user by the estimated internet users to get the revenue estimates. This also yields a growth rate of 4.59% for 2023-2029 which I will use to project revenue for 2030-2033.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Internet Users</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Bing&#39;s Share</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,254.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>553.25</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,470.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>575.99</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,690.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>599.16</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5,910.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>622.32</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,350.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>668.66</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6,580.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>692.87</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Meanwhile, it&#39;s estimated that <strong>Microsoft Surface devices</strong>&#39; sales tanked by 30% for 2023, which generated losses of up to $1.8B. By doing the rule of three, I found that Microsoft <strong>would have generated $6B in revenues for 2023</strong>. This segment will grow in line with the worldwide laptop market at 3.69%.</p><p>Lastly, <strong>Windows operating system</strong> revenue is speculated to have been around $24.61B in 2023. This was calculated via the rule of three, since in 2023, Windows revenue fell by $3.2B which was 13%. Therefore, I calculated the 100% with that information. This segment will grow in line with the worldwide PC market at 1.13%.</p><p>However, these calculations for 2023 say that Microsoft generated $63.35B for the &#34;More Personal Computing&#34; segment, which is substantially more than the reported $54.73B. Therefore, I will divide the $19.3B difference by the 5 subsegments, and then subtract the $3.806B result from each of them, so I can be able to correct the difference from the resulting segment result with the actual segment result.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Xbox</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>PC Accessories</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Bing &amp; Microsoft Edge</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Microsoft Surface Devices</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Windows Os</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,659.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,672.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,403.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,193.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,808.52</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,650.58</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,088.40</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,436.97</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,274.46</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,043.66</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,725.88</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,676.02</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,948.28</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,358.39</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,281.45</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,892.58</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16,456.22</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,469.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,445.41</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,521.93</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16,158.45</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18,452.36</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,989.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,535.65</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,765.13</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17,531.92</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,690.63</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,031.36</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,629.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,011.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,022.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23,200.40</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15,575.81</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,726.23</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,259.80</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,639.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26,014.61</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17,791.43</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,826.83</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,511.33</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,393.32</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29,170.19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,322.22</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2,931.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22,765.71</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2032</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>24,296.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32,708.53</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23,213.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,039.30</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23,022.97</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2033</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26,361.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36,676.07</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26,515.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,151.45</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23,283.12</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Growth Rate %</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.50%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.13%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14.22%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.69%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.13%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Then, I will calculate net income. The first step is <strong>gross income</strong>, which I will <strong>maintain</strong> the <strong>current gross margin of 69.89%</strong>. Meanwhile, general expenses will be tied to full-time employees. In 2023 general expenses were $27.19B, which was divided by the number of employees at that time of 221K. This resulted in an expense per employee of $120K (this is also an indication that Microsoft pays goods). Then I will <strong>assume</strong> that <strong>Microsoft</strong> will <strong>hire 19.33K new workers</strong> <strong>annually</strong>, in line with 2021-2023.</p><p>On the other hand, <strong>R&amp;D expenses</strong> will be calculated with a margin tied to gross income, which currently stands at 17.05%.</p><p>Then it&#39;s the time to calculate <strong>short &amp; long-term debt</strong> and interest income &amp; expenses. Short &amp; long-term debt will have annual changes in line with their 2018-20222 performance of 26.4%, and -8.7% respectively. Meanwhile, <strong>marketable securities</strong> will be growing at a <strong>4.2% annual rate</strong>.</p><p>Then, I found that in 2019, <strong>when</strong> interest <strong>rates were lower than now</strong>, <strong>Microsoft paid</strong> a <strong>3.11% interest on debt</strong> and <strong>received</strong> a <strong>2.26% annual return</strong> on <strong>its marketable securities</strong>.</p><p>However, for 2024TTM (<strong>when interest rates are high</strong>) Microsoft has paid a <strong>2.60% interest on debt</strong> (yes, lower than when interest rates were lower) and has <strong>received</strong> a <strong>5.67% return on marketable securities</strong>.</p><p>So with this information, I will <strong>assume an interest on a debt payment of 2.60%</strong> throughout the project. Then I will assume that for 2024 and 2027 Microsoft will receive a 5.67% return on its marketable securities and for the other years, it will receive 2.26%. This is because <strong>I am expecting that for 2024 and 2027, interest rates will increase again</strong>. If you want to read the full explanation, you can check the valuation section of my article on JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (JPM).</p><p>Nevertheless, <strong>for 2030-2033</strong>, I will use <strong>the average marketable securities annual return of 3.96%</strong> (the average of 5.67% and 2.26%) since I have not made an interest rates projection for the years beyond 2029.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3392d113dc4ba4877f8acbef1242006\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Net Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus Taxes</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus D&amp;A</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Plus Interest</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$252,160.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$96,208.66</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$121,411.75</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$137,846.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$140,091.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$284,228.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$106,918.84</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$134,927.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$151,362.78</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$153,846.25</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$320,971.8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$121,768.87</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$153,667.72</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$174,587.92</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$177,522.65</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$363,085.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$141,490.60</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$178,555.78</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$202,220.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$205,652.88</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$411,904.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$159,289.99</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$201,017.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$227,864.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$231,956.74</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$467,349.9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$182,609.20</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$230,228.11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$260,688.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$265,614.55</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$533,737.4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$211,816.29</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$267,304.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$302,091.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$308,071.13</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$610,100.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$244,241.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$308,222.81</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$347,987.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$355,298.55</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2032</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$696,857.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$281,168.43</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$354,823.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$400,243.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$409,236.74</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2033</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$796,620.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$323,724.30</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$408,527.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$460,449.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$471,569.18</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>^Final EBITA^</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Then, I assume that <strong>current assets</strong> <strong>will grow at 1.72%</strong>, thus mirroring the performance during 2018-2022. Then, with this, I use the undiscounted cash flows highlighted in green and add the future equity value, which is composed of the future short &amp; long-term debt, current assets, and marketable securities.</p><p>Lastly, the <strong>perpetuity growth rate</strong> in the model <strong>is 1.82%</strong>. This number was calculated by dividing the resulting free cash flow growth rate from the projection (25.07%) and dividing it by the difference between it and the WACC of 11.35% (<strong>25.07%/(25.07%-11.35%)=1.82%</strong>).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf10435f50c20656579b988a32525d88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p></p><p>As you can see, the model suggests that the stock (today) should be trading at $417.30, which is 6.5% below the current stock price of $446.34. For the future, the model suggests that the stock could be trading at $1,099.90 in 2033. Yes, that&#39;s a 146.4% upside from the current stock price, however when dividing that by the 10 years until the end of 2033, you get 14.6% annual returns.</p><h4 id=\"id_2386006103\">What if Azure could grow at 20-25% annually?</h4><p>If I increase Azure revenue growth from 15.66% to 20%, then the present fair price of Microsoft would be $484.22 (which is 8.5% above the current stock price), and a 2033 stock price target of $1,287.45 (which suggests 18.8% annual returns).</p><p>Then, If I increase that 20% revenue growth to 25%, the present fair price increases to $600.74 and the future price to $1,617.07. The first number indicates a 34.6% undervaluation of Microsoft&#39;s stock, and the future price indicates 26.2% annual returns throughout 2033.</p><h4 id=\"id_4161173946\">But, is that possible?</h4><p>Since 2015, Intelligent Cloud has only surpassed the 30% growth rate in 2021. The average revenue growth rate of this segment has been 17.74%, which is slightly lower than the first 20% hypothetical scenario, and 7.26% lower than the second 25% hypothetical scenario.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annual Revenue of Microsoft&#39;s Intelligent Cloud</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Change %</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2015</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>23684</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25040</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.73%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27400</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9.42%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32230</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17.63%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38990</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20.97%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44450</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14.00%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>60000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.98%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>74700</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>24.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>86930</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.37%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024 TTM</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>100850</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.01%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that if I take out 2015 and 2016, the average Azure annual growth rate increases to 20.64%. However, the problem is that, in the past, when the cloud market was growing faster, Azure just achieved a growth rate of over 20% in 2019, 2021, and 2022. Thus, there&#39;s more probability that Azure will grow below the required 20% (which would make Microsoft undervalued by a mere 8.5%)</p><p>Nevertheless, it&#39;s good that even with the 15.66% originally used in this projection, the suggested annual return of 14.6% is still above the historic 10.50% annual returns of the market, which sets Microsoft to be an outperformer, even if the stock price decreased by 6.5% to adjust to my fair stock price estimate of $417.30.</p><h2 id=\"id_88032998\">Risks to Thesis</h2><p>The main risk for my thesis is that Microsoft suddenly can achieve that high 30% growth rate that is required for a fair stock price of $496.21. This may be the reason why Microsoft&#39;s stock has been increasing past my fair stock price estimates because the optimism on Azure has passed the logical boundary.</p><p>However, I think that there are more risks related to Microsoft than to my thesis, for example, Microsoft would have it very difficult to perform any big-scale acquisition such as the Activision one.</p><p>Then, there is also the risk that Microsoft is more prone to lose market share than to gain it, yes Azure has grown its market share by 4% since 2020. However, that will be very difficult for Windows, or Microsoft Office. At best, what Microsoft could do is to boost the sales of Surface devices, however, the problem with that is the differentiation factor. What happened with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> is that its PCs were made by third-party components to which the competition could also access, and then its computers lost ground to cheaper alternatives, and the same thing happens today.</p><h2 id=\"id_2019918090\">Evolution of My Fair Price Estimates</h2><p>Since my first coverage on Microsoft, my fair price estimate has increased by 12.29%. Concerning my previous coverage, the reason for the increase from $397.49 to the present $417.30, the model I did in this article, covers 10 years, and not 6 as the previous one did. The main effect is that the total amount of cash flows increases in the model, which ultimately leads to an increased fair stock price.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d985bec6886950475008be2ad5790621\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1324337767\">Conclusion</h2><p>In conclusion, Microsoft continues to be overvalued, however, Microsoft&#39;s current valuation (despite a 6.5% overvaluation) is a good point to enter (in my opinion) and wait for Azure to deliver higher returns than the 15.66% used for my estimates. The suggested annual returns in my base model are 14.6% (which already sets Microsoft as an outperformer against the market&#39;s 10.50% annual return average).</p><p>Lastly, I assigned a near-term target for Microsoft&#39;s stock at $417.30, which is 6.5% below the current stock price of $446.34, and a 2033 stock price target at $1,099.90, which implies a 14.6% annual return throughout the 10 years.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Currently Overvalued, But It's Set To Be A Potential Outperformer Throughout 2033</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Currently Overvalued, But It's Set To Be A Potential Outperformer Throughout 2033\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-01 14:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701692-microsoft-currently-overvalued-but-its-set-to-be-a-potential-outperformer-throughout-2033><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Microsoft's valuation is upgraded from \"hold\" to \"buy\" with a near-term target of $417.30 and a 2033 target of $1,099.90, implying 14.6% annual returns.The Company's growth is driven by its cloud ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701692-microsoft-currently-overvalued-but-its-set-to-be-a-potential-outperformer-throughout-2033\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701692-microsoft-currently-overvalued-but-its-set-to-be-a-potential-outperformer-throughout-2033","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2447608276","content_text":"Microsoft's valuation is upgraded from \"hold\" to \"buy\" with a near-term target of $417.30 and a 2033 target of $1,099.90, implying 14.6% annual returns.The Company's growth is driven by its cloud business (Azure), and acquisitions like Activision-Blizzard.MSFT holds a 24% cloud market share (second to Amazon's 31%) and dominates with a 72.17% share in the PC OS market.Microsoft's TAM is expected to grow from $754.1B in 2024 to $1.70T by 2029, with the cloud segment driving most of the growth.The valuation (which uses a DCF model) suggests 14.6% annual returns throughout 2033 (and could be higher if Azure grows faster than expected).InnaFelkerThesisIn my previous article on Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), I downgraded the stock from \"buy\" to \"hold\", explaining that according to my models, Microsoft had reached a fair valuation when it was trading at $425.52 (which was 6.6% higher than my fair stock price estimate of $397.49). Furthermore, I suggested that the stock could reach a price of $701.68, translating into 10.50% annual returns throughout 2024-2029.Microsoft released Q3 2024 earnings on April 25. For that quarter, Microsoft reported an EPS of $2.94 (3.8% higher than estimated) and revenues of $61.9B (1.65% higher than estimated).After revising my valuation on Microsoft, I arrived at a near-term stock price target of $417.30, and a 2033 target of $1,099.90. The first number implies a 6.5% downside from the current stock price of $446.34, and the former, is 14.6% annual returns throughout 2024-2033 (which already sets Microsoft as an outperformer), furthermore, if Azure grows faster than the growth rate I used, Microsoft could become undervalued. Because of these reasons, I upgrade the stock from \"hold\" to \"buy\".OverviewGrowth PlanMicrosoft's recent growth primarily comes from its cloud business Azure. Microsoft has been doting Azure of AI capabilities by establishing new Data Centers, for instance, Microsoft is one of Nvidia Corporation's (NVDA) major clients.Microsoft also acquires businesses related to its already established segments, such as when it bought Activision Blizzard, which owns games such as the Call of Duty franchise, Diablo, and Overwatch 2. This acquisition brought up a lot of scrutiny from regulators (particularly from the UK) since it helped Microsoft to create a network effect with its Xbox platform (which dominates the gaming consoles market along with the PlayStation and the Nintendo Switch).How does Microsoft Compare Against Peers?Since Microsoft has too many segments, I will focus on the ones providing the most revenue: Cloud, Office Products and Licenses, and Windows OS.In the PaaS and IaaS cloud markets, Microsoft boasts a 24% market share, which puts Microsoft in second place behind Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) which holds 31%. However, what sets Microsoft apart is that its market share increased by 4% since 2020 when it was 20%. Meanwhile, Amazon's market share lost 1%.StatistaStatistaOn the other hand, Microsoft Office holds a 30% market share, which is behind Alphabet, Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL), which has 44%. This is because Google's Office version is free and enough for casual users such as students. However, Google Sheets (Google's version of Excel) lacks some crucial capabilities that Excel has.Lastly, Windows continues to dominate the PC OS market, holding an impressive 72.17% market share. In second place, it's Apple (AAPL) with a 15.42% market share.Industry Outlook & Addressable MarketThe productivity & business processes segment, comprises Office 365, on-premise office licenses, LinkedIn, and Dynamics 365 intelligent cloud. The business productivity market is expected to reach a $59.37B valuation in 2024 and $120.52B in 2029. This shows an annual CAGR of 15.29%.Meanwhile, the Worldwide Public Cloud market is expected to have a market volume of $282.2B in 2024, which should increase to $1.06T in 2028, thus showcasing an annual growth rate of 11.37%. This is the market in which Microsoft's intelligent cloud segment is. This segment offers Azure, SQL servers, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related licenses.Lastly, the \"More Personal Computing\" segment, agglomerates very diverse products such as the Windows OS, Microsoft Surface devices, HoloLens, XBOX, Microsoft Edge, Bing search engine, and PC accessories such as mice and keyboards.The worldwide gaming console market is expected to reach a $26.43B valuation for 2024 and $43.12B for 2029, translating into an 8.50% CAGR throughout that period.Then, the global PC Accessories market is expected to reach a $27.58B valuation in 2024 and $48.9B in 2029, which is a 12.13% CAGR.Then, I calculated Bing & Microsoft Edge TAM to estimate the expected total internet users. For 2024TTM, Google Search Engine has $188.85B in revenues, which divided by the total users of 4.29K, yields a result of $43.99 per user. For 2024, the total number of internet users is estimated to be 5.25B. For 2029, that number should increase to 6.58 B. Therefore, what I did is that I assumed that Microsoft (to compete) will maintain the same revenue per user as Google. This means that Bing's TAM for 2024 would stand at around $231.12B, and will increase to $289.45B by 2029. Which showcases a 4.21% CAGR throughout that period.With all these segments, Microsoft's current TAM is at $754.1B, and for 2029, the TAM should increase to $1.70T, which is a 21.11% annual growth. However, as was already expected, most of that TAM growth, comes from the Cloud because realistically, Microsoft Surface devices will have it difficult to grow, as well as PC accessories, and XBOX. After all, these three markets have what I will call \"an untouchable competitor\".In the case of PCs, if a programmer wants to program for Apple devices, he needs to do it in an Apple device (like a Mac), therefore entering the PC market for programmers is nearly impossible.Meanwhile, in the case of accessories, there are gamer brands, and Microsoft does not make gaming keyboards and mice.Lastly, for Xbox, the only way Microsoft would be able to concentrate the market is if Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:NTDOY) licenses its content to Microsoft, and that will never happen, since Nintendo knows that this exclusivity is its moat.SegmentsTAM 2024TAM 2029CAGR %Productivity & Business Processes59,270.0120,520.015.25%Intelligent Cloud282,200.01,060,000.015.66%Xbox26,430.643,120.7PC Accessories27,580.048,900.012.13%Bing & Microsoft Edge231,123.5289,454.24.21%Microsoft Surface Devices127,500.0147,386.53.69%Total754,104.11,709,381.321.11%CAGR%21.11%Click to enlargeValuationI will value Microsoft through a DCF model. The first thing to be calculated will be the WACC, which I calculated with the already-known formula (and you can find a more detailed formula in the DCF model). The result was 11.35%.Then, the D&A margin will be projected with a margin tied to revenue, which came out at 6.52%.Lastly, the CapEx margin throughout the projection will remain constant at 16.72%.TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONSEquity Market Price3,317,645.22Debt Value106,229.00Cost of Debt2.60%Tax Rate18.13%10y Treasury4.219%Beta1.18Market Return10.50%Cost of Equity11.63%CapEx39,547.00Capex Margin16.72%Net Income86,181.00Interest2,762.00Tax19,082.00D&A15,420.00EBITDA123,445.00D&A Margin6.52%Revenue236,584.0R&D Expense Margin17.05%Click to enlargeThe first thing is to calculate revenues, and the first segment I will calculate is Activision-Blizzard. For 2023, the now-acquired company generated $8.7B in revenues. Now, the problem is that it's impossible to predict which games are going to be a success and which not. Therefore, I will assume a conservative growth rate of 5.20%.Then, the productivity & business Processes, and Intelligent Cloud will grow in line with its market, by 15.25% and 15.66% respectively.Revenue of ActivisionProductivity & Business ProcessesIntelligent Cloud20238,706.069,275.087,902.320249,158.779,839.4101,667.820259,635.092,015.0117,589.0202610,136.0106,047.2136,003.4202710,663.1122,219.4157,301.5202811,217.5140,857.9181,935.0202911,800.8162,338.7210,426.0203013,480.1187,095.4243,378.7203115,398.3215,627.4281,491.8203216,493.1248,510.6325,573.4203317,665.8286,408.5376,558.2Growth Rate %5.20%15.25%15.66%Click to enlargeNow, starting with the \"More Personal Computing\" segment I found that Xbox sales totaled $15.46B for 2023. This segment will also grow in line with its market, 8.50%.On the other hand, Bing had a market share of around 10.53% in 2023 (which multiplied by the total amount of internet users in that year, means that Bing had around 543.13M users). After dividing the estimated $12.21B in revenue generated by Bing in 2023, I got that this division could be generating around $22.48 per user (which is lower than Google's $36.29). Then, I multiply that $22.48 in revenues per user by the estimated internet users to get the revenue estimates. This also yields a growth rate of 4.59% for 2023-2029 which I will use to project revenue for 2030-2033.Internet UsersBing's Share20245,254.00553.2520255,470.00575.9920265,690.00599.1620275,910.00622.3220286,350.00668.6620296,580.00692.87Click to enlargeMeanwhile, it's estimated that Microsoft Surface devices' sales tanked by 30% for 2023, which generated losses of up to $1.8B. By doing the rule of three, I found that Microsoft would have generated $6B in revenues for 2023. This segment will grow in line with the worldwide laptop market at 3.69%.Lastly, Windows operating system revenue is speculated to have been around $24.61B in 2023. This was calculated via the rule of three, since in 2023, Windows revenue fell by $3.2B which was 13%. Therefore, I calculated the 100% with that information. This segment will grow in line with the worldwide PC market at 1.13%.However, these calculations for 2023 say that Microsoft generated $63.35B for the \"More Personal Computing\" segment, which is substantially more than the reported $54.73B. Therefore, I will divide the $19.3B difference by the 5 subsegments, and then subtract the $3.806B result from each of them, so I can be able to correct the difference from the resulting segment result with the actual segment result.XboxPC AccessoriesBing & Microsoft EdgeMicrosoft Surface DevicesWindows Os202311,659.5211,672.528,403.522,193.5220,808.52202412,650.5813,088.4012,436.972,274.4621,043.66202513,725.8814,676.0212,948.282,358.3921,281.45202614,892.5816,456.2213,469.052,445.4121,521.93202716,158.4518,452.3613,989.822,535.6521,765.13202817,531.9220,690.6315,031.362,629.2122,011.07202919,022.1323,200.4015,575.812,726.2322,259.80203020,639.0126,014.6117,791.432,826.8322,511.33203122,393.3229,170.1920,322.222,931.1422,765.71203224,296.7632,708.5323,213.013,039.3023,022.97203326,361.9836,676.0726,515.013,151.4523,283.12Growth Rate %8.50%12.13%14.22%3.69%1.13%Click to enlargeThen, I will calculate net income. The first step is gross income, which I will maintain the current gross margin of 69.89%. Meanwhile, general expenses will be tied to full-time employees. In 2023 general expenses were $27.19B, which was divided by the number of employees at that time of 221K. This resulted in an expense per employee of $120K (this is also an indication that Microsoft pays goods). Then I will assume that Microsoft will hire 19.33K new workers annually, in line with 2021-2023.On the other hand, R&D expenses will be calculated with a margin tied to gross income, which currently stands at 17.05%.Then it's the time to calculate short & long-term debt and interest income & expenses. Short & long-term debt will have annual changes in line with their 2018-20222 performance of 26.4%, and -8.7% respectively. Meanwhile, marketable securities will be growing at a 4.2% annual rate.Then, I found that in 2019, when interest rates were lower than now, Microsoft paid a 3.11% interest on debt and received a 2.26% annual return on its marketable securities.However, for 2024TTM (when interest rates are high) Microsoft has paid a 2.60% interest on debt (yes, lower than when interest rates were lower) and has received a 5.67% return on marketable securities.So with this information, I will assume an interest on a debt payment of 2.60% throughout the project. Then I will assume that for 2024 and 2027 Microsoft will receive a 5.67% return on its marketable securities and for the other years, it will receive 2.26%. This is because I am expecting that for 2024 and 2027, interest rates will increase again. If you want to read the full explanation, you can check the valuation section of my article on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).Nevertheless, for 2030-2033, I will use the average marketable securities annual return of 3.96% (the average of 5.67% and 2.26%) since I have not made an interest rates projection for the years beyond 2029.Author's CalculationsRevenueNet IncomePlus TaxesPlus D&APlus Interest2024$252,160.0$96,208.66$121,411.75$137,846.96$140,091.072025$284,228.9$106,918.84$134,927.57$151,362.78$153,846.252026$320,971.8$121,768.87$153,667.72$174,587.92$177,522.652027$363,085.4$141,490.60$178,555.78$202,220.85$205,652.882028$411,904.6$159,289.99$201,017.91$227,864.90$231,956.742029$467,349.9$182,609.20$230,228.11$260,688.91$265,614.552030$533,737.4$211,816.29$267,304.04$302,091.82$308,071.132031$610,100.1$244,241.04$308,222.81$347,987.73$355,298.552032$696,857.7$281,168.43$354,823.73$400,243.31$409,236.742033$796,620.1$323,724.30$408,527.57$460,449.44$471,569.18^Final EBITA^Click to enlargeThen, I assume that current assets will grow at 1.72%, thus mirroring the performance during 2018-2022. Then, with this, I use the undiscounted cash flows highlighted in green and add the future equity value, which is composed of the future short & long-term debt, current assets, and marketable securities.Lastly, the perpetuity growth rate in the model is 1.82%. This number was calculated by dividing the resulting free cash flow growth rate from the projection (25.07%) and dividing it by the difference between it and the WACC of 11.35% (25.07%/(25.07%-11.35%)=1.82%).Author's CalculationsAs you can see, the model suggests that the stock (today) should be trading at $417.30, which is 6.5% below the current stock price of $446.34. For the future, the model suggests that the stock could be trading at $1,099.90 in 2033. Yes, that's a 146.4% upside from the current stock price, however when dividing that by the 10 years until the end of 2033, you get 14.6% annual returns.What if Azure could grow at 20-25% annually?If I increase Azure revenue growth from 15.66% to 20%, then the present fair price of Microsoft would be $484.22 (which is 8.5% above the current stock price), and a 2033 stock price target of $1,287.45 (which suggests 18.8% annual returns).Then, If I increase that 20% revenue growth to 25%, the present fair price increases to $600.74 and the future price to $1,617.07. The first number indicates a 34.6% undervaluation of Microsoft's stock, and the future price indicates 26.2% annual returns throughout 2033.But, is that possible?Since 2015, Intelligent Cloud has only surpassed the 30% growth rate in 2021. The average revenue growth rate of this segment has been 17.74%, which is slightly lower than the first 20% hypothetical scenario, and 7.26% lower than the second 25% hypothetical scenario.Annual Revenue of Microsoft's Intelligent CloudChange %2015236842016250405.73%2017274009.42%20183223017.63%20193899020.97%20204445014.00%20216000034.98%20227470024.50%20238693016.37%2024 TTM10085016.01%Click to enlargeIt's also worth noting that if I take out 2015 and 2016, the average Azure annual growth rate increases to 20.64%. However, the problem is that, in the past, when the cloud market was growing faster, Azure just achieved a growth rate of over 20% in 2019, 2021, and 2022. Thus, there's more probability that Azure will grow below the required 20% (which would make Microsoft undervalued by a mere 8.5%)Nevertheless, it's good that even with the 15.66% originally used in this projection, the suggested annual return of 14.6% is still above the historic 10.50% annual returns of the market, which sets Microsoft to be an outperformer, even if the stock price decreased by 6.5% to adjust to my fair stock price estimate of $417.30.Risks to ThesisThe main risk for my thesis is that Microsoft suddenly can achieve that high 30% growth rate that is required for a fair stock price of $496.21. This may be the reason why Microsoft's stock has been increasing past my fair stock price estimates because the optimism on Azure has passed the logical boundary.However, I think that there are more risks related to Microsoft than to my thesis, for example, Microsoft would have it very difficult to perform any big-scale acquisition such as the Activision one.Then, there is also the risk that Microsoft is more prone to lose market share than to gain it, yes Azure has grown its market share by 4% since 2020. However, that will be very difficult for Windows, or Microsoft Office. At best, what Microsoft could do is to boost the sales of Surface devices, however, the problem with that is the differentiation factor. What happened with IBM is that its PCs were made by third-party components to which the competition could also access, and then its computers lost ground to cheaper alternatives, and the same thing happens today.Evolution of My Fair Price EstimatesSince my first coverage on Microsoft, my fair price estimate has increased by 12.29%. Concerning my previous coverage, the reason for the increase from $397.49 to the present $417.30, the model I did in this article, covers 10 years, and not 6 as the previous one did. The main effect is that the total amount of cash flows increases in the model, which ultimately leads to an increased fair stock price.Author's CalculationsConclusionIn conclusion, Microsoft continues to be overvalued, however, Microsoft's current valuation (despite a 6.5% overvaluation) is a good point to enter (in my opinion) and wait for Azure to deliver higher returns than the 15.66% used for my estimates. The suggested annual returns in my base model are 14.6% (which already sets Microsoft as an outperformer against the market's 10.50% annual return average).Lastly, I assigned a near-term target for Microsoft's stock at $417.30, which is 6.5% below the current stock price of $446.34, and a 2033 stock price target at $1,099.90, which implies a 14.6% annual return throughout the 10 years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316926125035576,"gmtCreate":1718413583872,"gmtModify":1718413587332,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Greed revealed","listText":"Greed revealed","text":"Greed revealed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316926125035576","repostId":"2443987299","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364874473902272,"gmtCreate":1730090922973,"gmtModify":1730090926762,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then whats your problem, create more problem?","listText":"Then whats your problem, create more problem?","text":"Then whats your problem, create more problem?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364874473902272","repostId":"2478154039","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478154039","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1730087716,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478154039?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-28 11:55","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock May Pose A Systemic Risk To The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478154039","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia's stock has significantly impacted the Bloomberg 500, a proxy for the S&P 500 contributing 25% of gains this year and 75% since October 7, despite declining trading volume.Nvidia's volatility a","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Nvidia&#39;s stock has significantly impacted the Bloomberg 500, a proxy for the S&amp;P 500 contributing 25% of gains this year and 75% since October 7, despite declining trading volume.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia&#39;s volatility and beta have surged, making it more sensitive to market changes and increasing its influence due to its larger market cap.</p></li><li><p>The options market, particularly weekly call options, appears to be driving Nvidia&#39;s stock price, raising concerns about systemic market risks.</p></li><li><p>A shift in Nvidia&#39;s fortunes could affect the entire market, especially indexes heavily exposed to Nvidia, highlighting potential vulnerabilities.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bc321a9f2117cfb23759d73e99fc938f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s (NVDA) stock may pose a systemic risk to the broader stock market.</p><p>This year alone, Nvidia accounts for 25% of the gains in the Bloomberg 500, a tracking proxy for the S&amp;P 500, and 75% of gains since October 7. The more recent gains come when the stock&#39;s actual trading volume declines while options trading volume surges.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s outsized impact on the market is undeniable. The stock nearly tripled this year alone and contributed almost 93 points of the 372 points to the Bloomberg 500 index.</p><p>Compared to Apple (AAPL), the second most significant contributor, having added just 25 points to the index, or just 6.5%. Said another way, if Nvidia gains were not made, the Bloomberg 500 would have gained only 279 points on the year, or 16.2%, instead of the current gains of 21.6%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e55c66cf9e8acd33cef20ed4ad7c9d87\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Rising Beta and Volatility</h2><p>Volatility in Nvidia stock compared to that of the S&amp;P 500 has increased dramatically, surging to 2.4. This outpaces other MAG7 stocks like Tesla (TSLA) (2.0) and Meta (META) (1.7), underscoring its increased market sensitivity.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8bb2516a0cbe93b671763e714dbb5b3f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p>To be fair, Nvidia has always had a higher beta than the other names, but it wasn&#39;t always a company with among the largest market caps, either. In fact, at just the start of the year, Nvidia&#39;s market cap was $1.2 trillion, versus nearly $3.5 trillion today. Given that the S&amp;P 500 is a market cap weight index, its impacts on the overall market are much greater today than they have been in the past.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/302a330c4f73285423b5501d506b082e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Declining Stock Volume, Surging Options</h2><p>Perhaps more interesting is that stock volume has steadily declined over the past several weeks. The 20-day average volume levels fell from around 386 million on July 1 to just 253 million currently, which seems like a significant decline in overall average trading volume.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5cd7a96de9fa15db93aa44e54d186cd8\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>More interestingly, despite the decline in overall trading volumes, options trading volume has remained fairly consistent. The daily options volume is mostly call volume, which has steadily traded around 3 million call contracts per day versus about 1.6 million put contracts per day. The put-to-call ratio has easily favored the calls since the beginning of July.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83398330a71d7e0697e7c3bc9ff52885\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>The troubling part is that the majority of the options volume occurs on a daily basis in the weekly options for Nvidia. The most heavily traded call options, specifically those with the shortest number of days until expiration, are the most heavily traded. The patterns in the call volume appear to align with the stock price.</p><p>For example, the weekly options expiring on October 11 saw the stock trading in a range of roughly $125 to $136. The shares started the week around $125 and steadily climbed throughout the week until reaching $135 by Thursday afternoon and stalling out.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720dac79b4efb218623dd91227e4da00\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>That week shows how the Nvidia puts and call options for expiration on October 11 saw their heaviest trading volumes migrate throughout the week to the highest strike prices that corresponded with the stock price moving higher.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/149efba5bf506e528c3aac3f776ea8be\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>The week of October 18&#39;s expiration saw the shares traded as low as approximately $129 to $138. But this week, the shares jumped by nearly 3.5% to start the trading week, only to fall by as much as 7% mid-week and recover all those losses by the end of the week.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d7b7d586998cddb8732c797a4ac5e5c3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Again, we see how the option volumes correspond to the stock&#39;s price action. More interestingly, on October 15, the call volume subsided below $130 as the put volume rose. The call volume recovered on Wednesday, and by Thursday and Friday, the call volume was the heaviest at the $140 and $139 strike prices.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1cbd7a0e79b9784bfe80724acfbafb5b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>This past week which was for expiration on October 25, the stock price traded in a range of approximately $137 to $144, with shares rising on Monday and Tuesday, falling on Wednesday and Thursday, and rising again on Friday.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/778f5c43c7eb12152d4be297a6e42474\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Again, the options volume tracks stock movement. Puts got more active on Wednesday when the stock price was falling, with the heavier volumes shifting higher throughout the week back to the calls.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c6bc22ef1fdb64902a66aba637e098ee\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>The thing is that the weekly call volumes in Nvidia account for a vast majority of the total daily options volume trading. On October 17, about 3.1 million total call contracts were traded. The most active weekly call options on that day were the October 18 $140 calls with a volume of 481,000 contracts, while the $139 calls traded about 221,000 contracts, and the $138 and $141 strikes traded around 150,000 contracts each. That means that out of 3.1 million call contracts traded, 1.0 million of them traded in a range of $3 strike price for the weekly expiration. More importantly, total weekly contracts on that day-traded between $120 and $148 equalled more than 1.6 million contracts.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4187f867e9375b93a4ae29ee587ac17\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>On October 14, it wasn&#39;t much different even though the call volume was just 2.2 million. That day, 1.0 million contracts traded for the weekly options, and the $140 calls traded nearly 333,000 contracts. This pattern continues through the three-week period, with the weekly options accounting for the vast majority of the overall call volume for the stock, while the most active contract in the calls options migrating with the strike price.</p><p>Perhaps more interesting is that this occurred during a time when the stock price rose by more than 13% and its 20-day average volume fell from 291 million shares per day to 253 million shares per day, with a clear trend lower.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa617de20f4ac3dae1421f51d27ec63a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Systemic Market Risks</h2><p>It may not seem like a big deal on the surface, but from 10/7 until 10/26, the Bloomberg 500 has gained 1.08%, and Nvidia has accounted for 75% of those gains, accounting for 16.7 of the 22.3 points. Without Nvidia, the index would be flat.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/16bdf7eef113e3cecd21e7fa31a1688e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>The problem, of course, is whether or not the options market is the driving force behind Nvidia stock. If that has become the case, and Nvidia stock is the driving force behind a large portion of the gains in the stock market, then really, the options trading activity in Nvidia has become the driving force of the stock market, or at least the market indexes that are determined by Nvidia&#39;s changes in market cap.</p><p>The takeaway is that the stock market may not be what it seems, and a change in Nvidia&#39;s fortune may change the entire market&#39;s fortune. Indexes with heavy exposure to Nvidia are at the most significant risk.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock May Pose A Systemic Risk To The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock May Pose A Systemic Risk To The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-28 11:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729922-nvidia-stock-may-pose-systemic-risk-to-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia's stock has significantly impacted the Bloomberg 500, a proxy for the S&P 500 contributing 25% of gains this year and 75% since October 7, despite declining trading volume.Nvidia's volatility ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729922-nvidia-stock-may-pose-systemic-risk-to-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729922-nvidia-stock-may-pose-systemic-risk-to-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478154039","content_text":"Nvidia's stock has significantly impacted the Bloomberg 500, a proxy for the S&P 500 contributing 25% of gains this year and 75% since October 7, despite declining trading volume.Nvidia's volatility and beta have surged, making it more sensitive to market changes and increasing its influence due to its larger market cap.The options market, particularly weekly call options, appears to be driving Nvidia's stock price, raising concerns about systemic market risks.A shift in Nvidia's fortunes could affect the entire market, especially indexes heavily exposed to Nvidia, highlighting potential vulnerabilities.Nvidia's (NVDA) stock may pose a systemic risk to the broader stock market.This year alone, Nvidia accounts for 25% of the gains in the Bloomberg 500, a tracking proxy for the S&P 500, and 75% of gains since October 7. The more recent gains come when the stock's actual trading volume declines while options trading volume surges.Nvidia's outsized impact on the market is undeniable. The stock nearly tripled this year alone and contributed almost 93 points of the 372 points to the Bloomberg 500 index.Compared to Apple (AAPL), the second most significant contributor, having added just 25 points to the index, or just 6.5%. Said another way, if Nvidia gains were not made, the Bloomberg 500 would have gained only 279 points on the year, or 16.2%, instead of the current gains of 21.6%.Rising Beta and VolatilityVolatility in Nvidia stock compared to that of the S&P 500 has increased dramatically, surging to 2.4. This outpaces other MAG7 stocks like Tesla (TSLA) (2.0) and Meta (META) (1.7), underscoring its increased market sensitivity.To be fair, Nvidia has always had a higher beta than the other names, but it wasn't always a company with among the largest market caps, either. In fact, at just the start of the year, Nvidia's market cap was $1.2 trillion, versus nearly $3.5 trillion today. Given that the S&P 500 is a market cap weight index, its impacts on the overall market are much greater today than they have been in the past.Declining Stock Volume, Surging OptionsPerhaps more interesting is that stock volume has steadily declined over the past several weeks. The 20-day average volume levels fell from around 386 million on July 1 to just 253 million currently, which seems like a significant decline in overall average trading volume.More interestingly, despite the decline in overall trading volumes, options trading volume has remained fairly consistent. The daily options volume is mostly call volume, which has steadily traded around 3 million call contracts per day versus about 1.6 million put contracts per day. The put-to-call ratio has easily favored the calls since the beginning of July.The troubling part is that the majority of the options volume occurs on a daily basis in the weekly options for Nvidia. The most heavily traded call options, specifically those with the shortest number of days until expiration, are the most heavily traded. The patterns in the call volume appear to align with the stock price.For example, the weekly options expiring on October 11 saw the stock trading in a range of roughly $125 to $136. The shares started the week around $125 and steadily climbed throughout the week until reaching $135 by Thursday afternoon and stalling out.That week shows how the Nvidia puts and call options for expiration on October 11 saw their heaviest trading volumes migrate throughout the week to the highest strike prices that corresponded with the stock price moving higher.The week of October 18's expiration saw the shares traded as low as approximately $129 to $138. But this week, the shares jumped by nearly 3.5% to start the trading week, only to fall by as much as 7% mid-week and recover all those losses by the end of the week.Again, we see how the option volumes correspond to the stock's price action. More interestingly, on October 15, the call volume subsided below $130 as the put volume rose. The call volume recovered on Wednesday, and by Thursday and Friday, the call volume was the heaviest at the $140 and $139 strike prices.This past week which was for expiration on October 25, the stock price traded in a range of approximately $137 to $144, with shares rising on Monday and Tuesday, falling on Wednesday and Thursday, and rising again on Friday.Again, the options volume tracks stock movement. Puts got more active on Wednesday when the stock price was falling, with the heavier volumes shifting higher throughout the week back to the calls.The thing is that the weekly call volumes in Nvidia account for a vast majority of the total daily options volume trading. On October 17, about 3.1 million total call contracts were traded. The most active weekly call options on that day were the October 18 $140 calls with a volume of 481,000 contracts, while the $139 calls traded about 221,000 contracts, and the $138 and $141 strikes traded around 150,000 contracts each. That means that out of 3.1 million call contracts traded, 1.0 million of them traded in a range of $3 strike price for the weekly expiration. More importantly, total weekly contracts on that day-traded between $120 and $148 equalled more than 1.6 million contracts.On October 14, it wasn't much different even though the call volume was just 2.2 million. That day, 1.0 million contracts traded for the weekly options, and the $140 calls traded nearly 333,000 contracts. This pattern continues through the three-week period, with the weekly options accounting for the vast majority of the overall call volume for the stock, while the most active contract in the calls options migrating with the strike price.Perhaps more interesting is that this occurred during a time when the stock price rose by more than 13% and its 20-day average volume fell from 291 million shares per day to 253 million shares per day, with a clear trend lower.Systemic Market RisksIt may not seem like a big deal on the surface, but from 10/7 until 10/26, the Bloomberg 500 has gained 1.08%, and Nvidia has accounted for 75% of those gains, accounting for 16.7 of the 22.3 points. Without Nvidia, the index would be flat.The problem, of course, is whether or not the options market is the driving force behind Nvidia stock. If that has become the case, and Nvidia stock is the driving force behind a large portion of the gains in the stock market, then really, the options trading activity in Nvidia has become the driving force of the stock market, or at least the market indexes that are determined by Nvidia's changes in market cap.The takeaway is that the stock market may not be what it seems, and a change in Nvidia's fortune may change the entire market's fortune. Indexes with heavy exposure to Nvidia are at the most significant risk.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358389285642368,"gmtCreate":1728517805348,"gmtModify":1728517809185,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gold class bunglow come on please be more accurate.","listText":"Gold class bunglow come on please be more accurate.","text":"Gold class bunglow come on please be more accurate.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358389285642368","repostId":"1109683617","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1109683617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1728517200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109683617?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-10 07:40","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Mansion on Sale for Record $236 Million, BT Reports","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109683617","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A luxury mansion in Singapore’s most exclusive neighborhood is being put on the market for S$308 million , according to the Business Times.If met, the asking price for the so-called “good class bungalow” at Nassim Road would make it the biggest transaction in absolute price for such assets, the report said.The property, with a total land area of more than 58,000 square feet, is owned by Hong Fok Corp. Ltd. joint chief executive Cheong Pin Chuan and his wife. It was previously up for sale at a pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A luxury mansion in Singapore’s most exclusive neighborhood is being put on the market for S$308 million ($236 million), according to the Business Times.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If met, the asking price for the so-called “good class bungalow” at Nassim Road would make it the biggest transaction in absolute price for such assets, the report said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The property, with a total land area of more than 58,000 square feet, is owned by Hong Fok Corp. Ltd. joint chief executive Cheong Pin Chuan and his wife. It was previously up for sale at a price tag of S$175 million in 2019.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Mansion on Sale for Record $236 Million, BT Reports</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Mansion on Sale for Record $236 Million, BT Reports\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-10 07:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/singapore-mansion-on-sale-for-record-236-million-bt-reports?srnd=homepage-americas><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A luxury mansion in Singapore’s most exclusive neighborhood is being put on the market for S$308 million ($236 million), according to the Business Times.If met, the asking price for the so-called “...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/singapore-mansion-on-sale-for-record-236-million-bt-reports?srnd=homepage-americas\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"H30.SI":"鸿福实业"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/singapore-mansion-on-sale-for-record-236-million-bt-reports?srnd=homepage-americas","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109683617","content_text":"A luxury mansion in Singapore’s most exclusive neighborhood is being put on the market for S$308 million ($236 million), according to the Business Times.If met, the asking price for the so-called “good class bungalow” at Nassim Road would make it the biggest transaction in absolute price for such assets, the report said.The property, with a total land area of more than 58,000 square feet, is owned by Hong Fok Corp. Ltd. joint chief executive Cheong Pin Chuan and his wife. It was previously up for sale at a price tag of S$175 million in 2019.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316926368170072,"gmtCreate":1718413643801,"gmtModify":1718413647362,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low balled by Apple","listText":"Low balled by Apple","text":"Low balled by Apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316926368170072","repostId":"2443987299","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2443987299","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1718413021,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2443987299?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-15 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"OpenAI CEO Says Company Could Become Benefit Corporation - The Information","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2443987299","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 14  - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told some shareholders that the company is considering changing its governance structure to a for-profit business that OpenAI's nonprofit board doesn't control, The Information reported on Friday.One scenario Altman said the board is considering is a for-profit benefit corporation, which rivals such as Anthropic and xAI are using, the report said, citing a person who heard the comments.OpenAI did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>June 14 (Reuters) - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told some shareholders that the company is considering changing its governance structure to a for-profit business that OpenAI&#39;s nonprofit board doesn&#39;t control, The Information reported on Friday.</p><p>One scenario Altman said the board is considering is a for-profit benefit corporation, which rivals such as Anthropic and xAI are using, the report said, citing a person who heard the comments.</p><p>OpenAI did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OpenAI CEO Says Company Could Become Benefit Corporation - The Information</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpenAI CEO Says Company Could Become Benefit Corporation - The Information\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-15 08:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>June 14 (Reuters) - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told some shareholders that the company is considering changing its governance structure to a for-profit business that OpenAI&#39;s nonprofit board doesn&#39;t control, The Information reported on Friday.</p><p>One scenario Altman said the board is considering is a for-profit benefit corporation, which rivals such as Anthropic and xAI are using, the report said, citing a person who heard the comments.</p><p>OpenAI did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4577":"网络游戏","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4097":"系统软件","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","MSFT":"微软","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4576":"AR","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4566":"资本集团","GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4525":"远程办公概念","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC"},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2443987299","content_text":"June 14 (Reuters) - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told some shareholders that the company is considering changing its governance structure to a for-profit business that OpenAI's nonprofit board doesn't control, The Information reported on Friday.One scenario Altman said the board is considering is a for-profit benefit corporation, which rivals such as Anthropic and xAI are using, the report said, citing a person who heard the comments.OpenAI did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315531703783488,"gmtCreate":1718065484501,"gmtModify":1718069357177,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They try to make it cheap so they can buy more, market manipulation at best","listText":"They try to make it cheap so they can buy more, market manipulation at best","text":"They try to make it cheap so they can buy more, market manipulation at best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315531703783488","repostId":"2442812204","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2442812204","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1718028048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2442812204?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-10 22:00","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock Falls 2% After the 10-for-1 Stock Split Effective; AMD Falls 4% as Morgan Stanley Slashes Rating","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2442812204","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The artificial intelligence \"bar remains high\" for Advanced Micro Devices, and investors are better off with bigger names like Nvidia, say Morgan Stanley analysts who downgraded the chip maker.\"We like the AMD story, but investor expectations for the AI business still seems too high to us,\" said analysts led by Joseph Moore in a note to clients on Monday.Cutting the stock to equalweight, or neutral, from overweight, Moore and his team said they see upward revision potential for AMD as \"limited,\" even with a recovery in its core business. Shares of AMD fell over 2% in premarket trading.They view AMD's stock price as expensive relative to other big-cap plays such as Nvidia  and Broadcom , \"where we have more confidence on upward revisions to AI forecasts.\". Moore said their overweight on AMD has been focused on the chipmaker's core business reaccelerating following big downturn across markets, with AI an extra boost. \"Through no fault of their own, AMD is facing a high bar given the supp","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia started trading on a split-adjusted basis Monday. The 10-for-1 stock split in shares of Nvidia, the leader in artificial-intelligence chips, took effect Friday after the close of trading. The stock finished Friday at $1,208.88. In trading Monday, shares were down 2%. Coming into Monday’s session, Nvidia has risen 144% in 2024, and has gained 27% since the stock split announcement was made on May 22.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0e0b0dad6ee0d0847ec25eaf1973fb11\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"457\" tg-height=\"382\"/></p><p>Advanced Micro Devices fell 4% after shares of the chip maker were downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and the price target was maintained at $176.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/93e233983feb2998f39dbec3bed236b6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>“We like the AMD story, but investor expectations for the AI business still seems too high to us,” said analysts led by Joseph Moore in a note to clients on Monday.</p><p>Cutting the stock to equalweight, or neutral, from overweight, Moore and his team said they see upward revision potential for AMD as “limited,” even with a recovery in its core business.</p><p>They view AMD’s stock price as expensive relative to other big-cap plays such as Nvidia and Broadcom, “where we have more confidence on upward revisions to AI forecasts.”</p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts said investor expectations still haven’t adjusted enough to account for the likely impact Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra chip launch next year will have on competitors like AMD. Their preference has now shifted to Broadcom as the second-favorite large cap AI alternative.</p><p>Moore said their overweight on AMD has been focused on the chipmaker’s core business reaccelerating following big downturn across markets, with AI an extra boost. “Through no fault of their own, AMD is facing a high bar given the supply chain ramp in excess of AMD revenue potential,” they said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">AMD said in late April that it expects $4 billion in AI chip sales this year, from an earlier projection for $3.5 billion. Morgan Stanley’s analysts said the chip maker will likely hit that target this year and grow in 2025, but expectations are running much higher. They explain that have consistently taken the approach to heavily discount the supply chain for AMD when assessing such opportunities.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The trouble we have is that investor expectations still anchor on supply chain based forecasts that point to a number north of $6bn (400-500k units), despite continued messaging from the company that it takes time to build an ecosystem around a new solution, and that they would be aggressive with builds,” they said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock Falls 2% After the 10-for-1 Stock Split Effective; AMD Falls 4% as Morgan Stanley Slashes Rating</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock Falls 2% After the 10-for-1 Stock Split Effective; AMD Falls 4% as Morgan Stanley Slashes Rating\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-10 22:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia started trading on a split-adjusted basis Monday. The 10-for-1 stock split in shares of Nvidia, the leader in artificial-intelligence chips, took effect Friday after the close of trading. The stock finished Friday at $1,208.88. In trading Monday, shares were down 2%. Coming into Monday’s session, Nvidia has risen 144% in 2024, and has gained 27% since the stock split announcement was made on May 22.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0e0b0dad6ee0d0847ec25eaf1973fb11\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"457\" tg-height=\"382\"/></p><p>Advanced Micro Devices fell 4% after shares of the chip maker were downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and the price target was maintained at $176.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/93e233983feb2998f39dbec3bed236b6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>“We like the AMD story, but investor expectations for the AI business still seems too high to us,” said analysts led by Joseph Moore in a note to clients on Monday.</p><p>Cutting the stock to equalweight, or neutral, from overweight, Moore and his team said they see upward revision potential for AMD as “limited,” even with a recovery in its core business.</p><p>They view AMD’s stock price as expensive relative to other big-cap plays such as Nvidia and Broadcom, “where we have more confidence on upward revisions to AI forecasts.”</p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts said investor expectations still haven’t adjusted enough to account for the likely impact Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra chip launch next year will have on competitors like AMD. Their preference has now shifted to Broadcom as the second-favorite large cap AI alternative.</p><p>Moore said their overweight on AMD has been focused on the chipmaker’s core business reaccelerating following big downturn across markets, with AI an extra boost. “Through no fault of their own, AMD is facing a high bar given the supply chain ramp in excess of AMD revenue potential,” they said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">AMD said in late April that it expects $4 billion in AI chip sales this year, from an earlier projection for $3.5 billion. Morgan Stanley’s analysts said the chip maker will likely hit that target this year and grow in 2025, but expectations are running much higher. They explain that have consistently taken the approach to heavily discount the supply chain for AMD when assessing such opportunities.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The trouble we have is that investor expectations still anchor on supply chain based forecasts that point to a number north of $6bn (400-500k units), despite continued messaging from the company that it takes time to build an ecosystem around a new solution, and that they would be aggressive with builds,” they said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2442812204","content_text":"Nvidia started trading on a split-adjusted basis Monday. The 10-for-1 stock split in shares of Nvidia, the leader in artificial-intelligence chips, took effect Friday after the close of trading. The stock finished Friday at $1,208.88. In trading Monday, shares were down 2%. Coming into Monday’s session, Nvidia has risen 144% in 2024, and has gained 27% since the stock split announcement was made on May 22.Advanced Micro Devices fell 4% after shares of the chip maker were downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and the price target was maintained at $176.“We like the AMD story, but investor expectations for the AI business still seems too high to us,” said analysts led by Joseph Moore in a note to clients on Monday.Cutting the stock to equalweight, or neutral, from overweight, Moore and his team said they see upward revision potential for AMD as “limited,” even with a recovery in its core business.They view AMD’s stock price as expensive relative to other big-cap plays such as Nvidia and Broadcom, “where we have more confidence on upward revisions to AI forecasts.”Morgan Stanley analysts said investor expectations still haven’t adjusted enough to account for the likely impact Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra chip launch next year will have on competitors like AMD. Their preference has now shifted to Broadcom as the second-favorite large cap AI alternative.Moore said their overweight on AMD has been focused on the chipmaker’s core business reaccelerating following big downturn across markets, with AI an extra boost. “Through no fault of their own, AMD is facing a high bar given the supply chain ramp in excess of AMD revenue potential,” they said.AMD said in late April that it expects $4 billion in AI chip sales this year, from an earlier projection for $3.5 billion. Morgan Stanley’s analysts said the chip maker will likely hit that target this year and grow in 2025, but expectations are running much higher. They explain that have consistently taken the approach to heavily discount the supply chain for AMD when assessing such opportunities.“The trouble we have is that investor expectations still anchor on supply chain based forecasts that point to a number north of $6bn (400-500k units), despite continued messaging from the company that it takes time to build an ecosystem around a new solution, and that they would be aggressive with builds,” they said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359967585321120,"gmtCreate":1728890613659,"gmtModify":1728890617447,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Repeat same things for every stock just to stay relevant.","listText":"Repeat same things for every stock just to stay relevant.","text":"Repeat same things for every stock just to stay relevant.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359967585321120","repostId":"2475499088","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348143529042120,"gmtCreate":1726019608880,"gmtModify":1726020412306,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So sad the a first world country making&nbsp; themselves more lazy. Invest more in education and nutrition and not drugs.","listText":"So sad the a first world country making&nbsp; themselves more lazy. Invest more in education and nutrition and not drugs.","text":"So sad the a first world country making themselves more lazy. Invest more in education and nutrition and not drugs.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348143529042120","repostId":"2466154114","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466154114","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726019100,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466154114?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-11 09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Novo Nordisk Obesity Drug Works for Kids as Young as 6, Study Finds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466154114","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Some experts favor lifestyle changes over medications to treat obesity in young children</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c67295a561f224fdcb8d21956a9d4cd\" alt=\"Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.\" title=\"Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"609\"/><span>Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.</span></p><p>Amid an ongoing debate over what role, if any, GLP-1 medications should play in treating children who struggle with excess weight while still in elementary school, researchers have concluded that a Novo Nordisk obesity drug may be safe and effective for kids as young as 6 years of age.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Liraglutide, a GLP-1 medication marketed by Novo Nordisk as the weight-loss drug Saxenda and the diabetes treatment Victoza, produced an average reduction in body mass index of 5.8% among 6- to 11-year-olds who took the drug for just over a year as part of a late-stage clinical trial, researchers found. That compares with an average BMI increase of 1.6% for trial participants taking a placebo, according to the study, which will be presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Madrid this week and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. </p><p>Nearly half of the trial participants taking liraglutide achieved a BMI reduction of at least 5%, compared with about 9% of those taking placebo. As expected among growing children, both study groups gained some weight during the trial period. The children taking liraglutide gained an average 1.6% of body weight, while those taking placebo gained 10%.</p><p>The results “offer considerable promise to children living with obesity,” Claudia Fox, lead author of the study and co-director of the University of Minnesota Medical School’s Center for Pediatric Obesity Medicine, said in a statement. “To date, children have had virtually no options for treating obesity. They have been told to ‘try harder’ with diet and exercise.” </p><p>The prevalence of obesity among U.S. kids age 6 through 11 has grown over the past couple of decades, from 15.8% around the turn of the millennium to nearly 20%. The condition often persists into adulthood and is linked with serious complications, including Type 2 diabetes and some types of cancer. </p><p>But even as adults and their healthcare providers have quickly embraced newer obesity medications, there’s not yet a clear consensus on what role the drugs should play in treating younger children. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force in June recommended that kids age 6 and older with a high BMI receive intensive, comprehensive behavioral interventions, such as education about healthy eating habits, counseling on goal-setting and problem-solving, and supervised exercise. As for weight-loss medications, the task force said that more research is needed to fully understand the long-term health outcomes, including possible harms. The task force is an independent panel of medical experts supported by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The American Academy of Pediatrics, meanwhile, last year issued guidelines saying that there wasn’t enough evidence to recommend use of medications solely for obesity in kids younger than 12. Saxenda is currently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for children 12 and older who have a high BMI.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So far, no medications have been approved for the treatment of general obesity in kids younger than 12. And for some children, lifestyle changes such as adjustments in diet and physical activity may make a meaningful difference, Fox said at a press briefing Tuesday. “We have to be cautious and not imply that these medications are appropriate for every child,” Fox said. But children with more severe forms of obesity, she added, “are not seeing adequate results with lifestyle therapy alone.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">All of the participants in the new trial, which was funded by Novo Nordisk, also received counseling that encouraged sticking to a healthy diet and getting regular exercise. The study also found that kids taking liraglutide had more improvement in diastolic blood pressure and blood-sugar levels.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More than 12% of the children taking liraglutide, however, had serious side effects, compared with 7.7% of those on placebo. As has been seen with adults taking GLP-1 drugs, most of those negative effects were gastrointestinal. Among the children taking liraglutide, 11% stopped the treatment due to side effects, compared with none in the placebo group.</p><p>The study involved 82 children, and “with such a small sample, it’s hard to know, are there more rare side effects that could have emerged or will emerge” once more patients are exposed to the drug, Fox said to reporters Tuesday. “We need much longer-term data and much bigger numbers.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As with adult patients, there are also concerns about what might happen after children stop taking the medications. Increases in BMI among trial participants after liraglutide treatment stopped are “worrisome,” researchers from the U.K.’s University of Birmingham and University of Bristol wrote in an editorial also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, because such increases imply an ongoing need for medications to prevent a rebound in BMI. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Kids participating in the trial have the option to restart the medication for another 56 weeks, followed by two years of observation after treatment stops, which will help gather longer-term data on the drug’s safety and efficacy, Fox said. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Novo Nordisk’s American depositary receipts have climbed 25% in the year to date, while the S&amp;P 500 has gained 15%. </p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Novo Nordisk Obesity Drug Works for Kids as Young as 6, Study Finds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovo Nordisk Obesity Drug Works for Kids as Young as 6, Study Finds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-11 09:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Some experts favor lifestyle changes over medications to treat obesity in young children</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c67295a561f224fdcb8d21956a9d4cd\" alt=\"Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.\" title=\"Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"609\"/><span>Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.</span></p><p>Amid an ongoing debate over what role, if any, GLP-1 medications should play in treating children who struggle with excess weight while still in elementary school, researchers have concluded that a Novo Nordisk obesity drug may be safe and effective for kids as young as 6 years of age.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Liraglutide, a GLP-1 medication marketed by Novo Nordisk as the weight-loss drug Saxenda and the diabetes treatment Victoza, produced an average reduction in body mass index of 5.8% among 6- to 11-year-olds who took the drug for just over a year as part of a late-stage clinical trial, researchers found. That compares with an average BMI increase of 1.6% for trial participants taking a placebo, according to the study, which will be presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Madrid this week and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. </p><p>Nearly half of the trial participants taking liraglutide achieved a BMI reduction of at least 5%, compared with about 9% of those taking placebo. As expected among growing children, both study groups gained some weight during the trial period. The children taking liraglutide gained an average 1.6% of body weight, while those taking placebo gained 10%.</p><p>The results “offer considerable promise to children living with obesity,” Claudia Fox, lead author of the study and co-director of the University of Minnesota Medical School’s Center for Pediatric Obesity Medicine, said in a statement. “To date, children have had virtually no options for treating obesity. They have been told to ‘try harder’ with diet and exercise.” </p><p>The prevalence of obesity among U.S. kids age 6 through 11 has grown over the past couple of decades, from 15.8% around the turn of the millennium to nearly 20%. The condition often persists into adulthood and is linked with serious complications, including Type 2 diabetes and some types of cancer. </p><p>But even as adults and their healthcare providers have quickly embraced newer obesity medications, there’s not yet a clear consensus on what role the drugs should play in treating younger children. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force in June recommended that kids age 6 and older with a high BMI receive intensive, comprehensive behavioral interventions, such as education about healthy eating habits, counseling on goal-setting and problem-solving, and supervised exercise. As for weight-loss medications, the task force said that more research is needed to fully understand the long-term health outcomes, including possible harms. The task force is an independent panel of medical experts supported by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The American Academy of Pediatrics, meanwhile, last year issued guidelines saying that there wasn’t enough evidence to recommend use of medications solely for obesity in kids younger than 12. Saxenda is currently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for children 12 and older who have a high BMI.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So far, no medications have been approved for the treatment of general obesity in kids younger than 12. And for some children, lifestyle changes such as adjustments in diet and physical activity may make a meaningful difference, Fox said at a press briefing Tuesday. “We have to be cautious and not imply that these medications are appropriate for every child,” Fox said. But children with more severe forms of obesity, she added, “are not seeing adequate results with lifestyle therapy alone.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">All of the participants in the new trial, which was funded by Novo Nordisk, also received counseling that encouraged sticking to a healthy diet and getting regular exercise. The study also found that kids taking liraglutide had more improvement in diastolic blood pressure and blood-sugar levels.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More than 12% of the children taking liraglutide, however, had serious side effects, compared with 7.7% of those on placebo. As has been seen with adults taking GLP-1 drugs, most of those negative effects were gastrointestinal. Among the children taking liraglutide, 11% stopped the treatment due to side effects, compared with none in the placebo group.</p><p>The study involved 82 children, and “with such a small sample, it’s hard to know, are there more rare side effects that could have emerged or will emerge” once more patients are exposed to the drug, Fox said to reporters Tuesday. “We need much longer-term data and much bigger numbers.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As with adult patients, there are also concerns about what might happen after children stop taking the medications. Increases in BMI among trial participants after liraglutide treatment stopped are “worrisome,” researchers from the U.K.’s University of Birmingham and University of Bristol wrote in an editorial also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, because such increases imply an ongoing need for medications to prevent a rebound in BMI. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Kids participating in the trial have the option to restart the medication for another 56 weeks, followed by two years of observation after treatment stops, which will help gather longer-term data on the drug’s safety and efficacy, Fox said. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Novo Nordisk’s American depositary receipts have climbed 25% in the year to date, while the S&amp;P 500 has gained 15%. </p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVO":"诺和诺德"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2466154114","content_text":"Some experts favor lifestyle changes over medications to treat obesity in young childrenNovo Nordisk’s Saxenda is already approved for children 12 and older who have a high body mass index.Amid an ongoing debate over what role, if any, GLP-1 medications should play in treating children who struggle with excess weight while still in elementary school, researchers have concluded that a Novo Nordisk obesity drug may be safe and effective for kids as young as 6 years of age.Liraglutide, a GLP-1 medication marketed by Novo Nordisk as the weight-loss drug Saxenda and the diabetes treatment Victoza, produced an average reduction in body mass index of 5.8% among 6- to 11-year-olds who took the drug for just over a year as part of a late-stage clinical trial, researchers found. That compares with an average BMI increase of 1.6% for trial participants taking a placebo, according to the study, which will be presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Madrid this week and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Nearly half of the trial participants taking liraglutide achieved a BMI reduction of at least 5%, compared with about 9% of those taking placebo. As expected among growing children, both study groups gained some weight during the trial period. The children taking liraglutide gained an average 1.6% of body weight, while those taking placebo gained 10%.The results “offer considerable promise to children living with obesity,” Claudia Fox, lead author of the study and co-director of the University of Minnesota Medical School’s Center for Pediatric Obesity Medicine, said in a statement. “To date, children have had virtually no options for treating obesity. They have been told to ‘try harder’ with diet and exercise.” The prevalence of obesity among U.S. kids age 6 through 11 has grown over the past couple of decades, from 15.8% around the turn of the millennium to nearly 20%. The condition often persists into adulthood and is linked with serious complications, including Type 2 diabetes and some types of cancer. But even as adults and their healthcare providers have quickly embraced newer obesity medications, there’s not yet a clear consensus on what role the drugs should play in treating younger children. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force in June recommended that kids age 6 and older with a high BMI receive intensive, comprehensive behavioral interventions, such as education about healthy eating habits, counseling on goal-setting and problem-solving, and supervised exercise. As for weight-loss medications, the task force said that more research is needed to fully understand the long-term health outcomes, including possible harms. The task force is an independent panel of medical experts supported by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The American Academy of Pediatrics, meanwhile, last year issued guidelines saying that there wasn’t enough evidence to recommend use of medications solely for obesity in kids younger than 12. Saxenda is currently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for children 12 and older who have a high BMI.So far, no medications have been approved for the treatment of general obesity in kids younger than 12. And for some children, lifestyle changes such as adjustments in diet and physical activity may make a meaningful difference, Fox said at a press briefing Tuesday. “We have to be cautious and not imply that these medications are appropriate for every child,” Fox said. But children with more severe forms of obesity, she added, “are not seeing adequate results with lifestyle therapy alone.” All of the participants in the new trial, which was funded by Novo Nordisk, also received counseling that encouraged sticking to a healthy diet and getting regular exercise. The study also found that kids taking liraglutide had more improvement in diastolic blood pressure and blood-sugar levels.More than 12% of the children taking liraglutide, however, had serious side effects, compared with 7.7% of those on placebo. As has been seen with adults taking GLP-1 drugs, most of those negative effects were gastrointestinal. Among the children taking liraglutide, 11% stopped the treatment due to side effects, compared with none in the placebo group.The study involved 82 children, and “with such a small sample, it’s hard to know, are there more rare side effects that could have emerged or will emerge” once more patients are exposed to the drug, Fox said to reporters Tuesday. “We need much longer-term data and much bigger numbers.” As with adult patients, there are also concerns about what might happen after children stop taking the medications. Increases in BMI among trial participants after liraglutide treatment stopped are “worrisome,” researchers from the U.K.’s University of Birmingham and University of Bristol wrote in an editorial also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, because such increases imply an ongoing need for medications to prevent a rebound in BMI. Kids participating in the trial have the option to restart the medication for another 56 weeks, followed by two years of observation after treatment stops, which will help gather longer-term data on the drug’s safety and efficacy, Fox said. Novo Nordisk’s American depositary receipts have climbed 25% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 15%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343023120089320,"gmtCreate":1724764242918,"gmtModify":1724764246845,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> everyone try to make it cheap before the Moon","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> everyone try to make it cheap before the Moon","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ everyone try to make it cheap before the Moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343023120089320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316319143465032,"gmtCreate":1718256174690,"gmtModify":1718256179738,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dont put apple together with nvidia. One Is self made, other is buy and self brand.","listText":"Dont put apple together with nvidia. One Is self made, other is buy and self brand.","text":"Dont put apple together with nvidia. One Is self made, other is buy and self brand.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316319143465032","repostId":"2443084599","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2443084599","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1718251200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2443084599?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-13 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy Apple Stock, but Not for the Reason You Think","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2443084599","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Apple stock is soaring this week, thanks to the artificial intelligence strategy the tech company announced Tuesday. Hedge funds might be helping, too—and both factors can push Apple shares even highe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple stock is soaring this week, thanks to the artificial intelligence strategy the tech company announced Tuesday. Hedge funds might be helping, too—and both factors can push Apple shares even higher.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ded35b4736a13ad8abbb3cf7dfa1f850\" alt=\"DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG\" title=\"DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"632\"/><span>DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Shares of the smartphone giant are “getting a delayed boost from the [Worldwide Developers Conference] Apple Intelligence launch,” wrote Bear Traps newsletter author Lawrence McDonald in a Wednesday note. “For over a month, people have been discussing the artificial intelligence upside for Apple, starting another supercycle for iPhones.”</p><p>Now that optimism is showing up. As of Wednesday, Apple stock had climbed 16% over the past month. That leaves shares up about 13% for the year.</p><p>That’s great, but shares of Nvidia, the original AI stock, have gained 38% over the past month and up about 153% in 2024.</p><p>Apple stock might be able to narrow the gap because traders are getting out of an old position. McDonald added in his note that a hedge fund has been unwinding a large long Nvidia/short Apple pair trade.</p><p>Pairs trades typically involve buying one stock and shorting the other. Shorting a stock means borrowing and selling shares an investor doesn’t own. It’s a bearish bet—the seller pockets the cash from the sale hoping to repurchase shares at a lower price when they return it to the original owner.</p><p>The goal of any pair trade is to make money from essentially one idea while eliminating other factors, such as the economy or inflation, that can move both stocks up or down. The long Nvidia/short Apple trade gives, an investor exposure to the AI theme, while removing some of the risks of holding technology stocks.</p><p>With Apple back as an AI play, that trade needs to unwind—which means buying Apple and selling Nvidia. How much more unwinding is left to do is hard to say.</p><p>The amount of Apple stock sold short relative to the amount available to trade is about 2.3%, according to Bloomberg. That’s high for Apple— and the short covering needed to return things to normal is about 10 to 20 million shares. That could be all done: Apple stock has traded almost 300 million shares over the past three days.</p><p>What’s more, in the wake of the recent run, Apple stock is now “overbought”—shares have climbed quickly that the rally may run out of steam. (For what it’s worth, Nvidia shares are even more overbought.)</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That isn’t too helpful. Fairlead Strategies founder and market technician Katie Stockton has an idea where Apple stock can trade, though. She says that if Apple can stay above $198 a share in the coming few days, then it will soon trade at $240. Stockton isn’t making a fundamental call on Apple stock; technicians look at charts and patterns to get a sense of where things can go over the short and medium terms.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Stockton’s reasoning implies that there is about 10% upside left in the Apple-as-an-AI-play-rebound trade. Apple shares gained 2.9% on Wednesday, at $213.07 apiece.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia shares, however, aren’t hurting: shares of the chip maker rose 3.6% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.5%. A slower-than-expected inflation reading is helping most stocks.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A long Apple, short Nvidia trade is one way to capture Apple’s AI rebound. Shorting Nvidia stock doesn’t sound like a great idea, though: it’s easier to hang on to Apple and reevaluate positioning at Stockton’s $240 level.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy Apple Stock, but Not for the Reason You Think</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy Apple Stock, but Not for the Reason You Think\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-13 12:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple stock is soaring this week, thanks to the artificial intelligence strategy the tech company announced Tuesday. Hedge funds might be helping, too—and both factors can push Apple shares even higher.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ded35b4736a13ad8abbb3cf7dfa1f850\" alt=\"DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG\" title=\"DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"632\"/><span>DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Shares of the smartphone giant are “getting a delayed boost from the [Worldwide Developers Conference] Apple Intelligence launch,” wrote Bear Traps newsletter author Lawrence McDonald in a Wednesday note. “For over a month, people have been discussing the artificial intelligence upside for Apple, starting another supercycle for iPhones.”</p><p>Now that optimism is showing up. As of Wednesday, Apple stock had climbed 16% over the past month. That leaves shares up about 13% for the year.</p><p>That’s great, but shares of Nvidia, the original AI stock, have gained 38% over the past month and up about 153% in 2024.</p><p>Apple stock might be able to narrow the gap because traders are getting out of an old position. McDonald added in his note that a hedge fund has been unwinding a large long Nvidia/short Apple pair trade.</p><p>Pairs trades typically involve buying one stock and shorting the other. Shorting a stock means borrowing and selling shares an investor doesn’t own. It’s a bearish bet—the seller pockets the cash from the sale hoping to repurchase shares at a lower price when they return it to the original owner.</p><p>The goal of any pair trade is to make money from essentially one idea while eliminating other factors, such as the economy or inflation, that can move both stocks up or down. The long Nvidia/short Apple trade gives, an investor exposure to the AI theme, while removing some of the risks of holding technology stocks.</p><p>With Apple back as an AI play, that trade needs to unwind—which means buying Apple and selling Nvidia. How much more unwinding is left to do is hard to say.</p><p>The amount of Apple stock sold short relative to the amount available to trade is about 2.3%, according to Bloomberg. That’s high for Apple— and the short covering needed to return things to normal is about 10 to 20 million shares. That could be all done: Apple stock has traded almost 300 million shares over the past three days.</p><p>What’s more, in the wake of the recent run, Apple stock is now “overbought”—shares have climbed quickly that the rally may run out of steam. (For what it’s worth, Nvidia shares are even more overbought.)</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That isn’t too helpful. Fairlead Strategies founder and market technician Katie Stockton has an idea where Apple stock can trade, though. She says that if Apple can stay above $198 a share in the coming few days, then it will soon trade at $240. Stockton isn’t making a fundamental call on Apple stock; technicians look at charts and patterns to get a sense of where things can go over the short and medium terms.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Stockton’s reasoning implies that there is about 10% upside left in the Apple-as-an-AI-play-rebound trade. Apple shares gained 2.9% on Wednesday, at $213.07 apiece.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia shares, however, aren’t hurting: shares of the chip maker rose 3.6% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.5%. A slower-than-expected inflation reading is helping most stocks.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A long Apple, short Nvidia trade is one way to capture Apple’s AI rebound. Shorting Nvidia stock doesn’t sound like a great idea, though: it’s easier to hang on to Apple and reevaluate positioning at Stockton’s $240 level.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4576":"AR","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","AAPL":"苹果","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2443084599","content_text":"Apple stock is soaring this week, thanks to the artificial intelligence strategy the tech company announced Tuesday. Hedge funds might be helping, too—and both factors can push Apple shares even higher.DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERGShares of the smartphone giant are “getting a delayed boost from the [Worldwide Developers Conference] Apple Intelligence launch,” wrote Bear Traps newsletter author Lawrence McDonald in a Wednesday note. “For over a month, people have been discussing the artificial intelligence upside for Apple, starting another supercycle for iPhones.”Now that optimism is showing up. As of Wednesday, Apple stock had climbed 16% over the past month. That leaves shares up about 13% for the year.That’s great, but shares of Nvidia, the original AI stock, have gained 38% over the past month and up about 153% in 2024.Apple stock might be able to narrow the gap because traders are getting out of an old position. McDonald added in his note that a hedge fund has been unwinding a large long Nvidia/short Apple pair trade.Pairs trades typically involve buying one stock and shorting the other. Shorting a stock means borrowing and selling shares an investor doesn’t own. It’s a bearish bet—the seller pockets the cash from the sale hoping to repurchase shares at a lower price when they return it to the original owner.The goal of any pair trade is to make money from essentially one idea while eliminating other factors, such as the economy or inflation, that can move both stocks up or down. The long Nvidia/short Apple trade gives, an investor exposure to the AI theme, while removing some of the risks of holding technology stocks.With Apple back as an AI play, that trade needs to unwind—which means buying Apple and selling Nvidia. How much more unwinding is left to do is hard to say.The amount of Apple stock sold short relative to the amount available to trade is about 2.3%, according to Bloomberg. That’s high for Apple— and the short covering needed to return things to normal is about 10 to 20 million shares. That could be all done: Apple stock has traded almost 300 million shares over the past three days.What’s more, in the wake of the recent run, Apple stock is now “overbought”—shares have climbed quickly that the rally may run out of steam. (For what it’s worth, Nvidia shares are even more overbought.)That isn’t too helpful. Fairlead Strategies founder and market technician Katie Stockton has an idea where Apple stock can trade, though. She says that if Apple can stay above $198 a share in the coming few days, then it will soon trade at $240. Stockton isn’t making a fundamental call on Apple stock; technicians look at charts and patterns to get a sense of where things can go over the short and medium terms.Stockton’s reasoning implies that there is about 10% upside left in the Apple-as-an-AI-play-rebound trade. Apple shares gained 2.9% on Wednesday, at $213.07 apiece.Nvidia shares, however, aren’t hurting: shares of the chip maker rose 3.6% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.5%. A slower-than-expected inflation reading is helping most stocks.A long Apple, short Nvidia trade is one way to capture Apple’s AI rebound. Shorting Nvidia stock doesn’t sound like a great idea, though: it’s easier to hang on to Apple and reevaluate positioning at Stockton’s $240 level.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316312973385944,"gmtCreate":1718254557293,"gmtModify":1718256197105,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Say buy then say dont buy, so write something to tell you that not i say buy but also not i say dont buy when it moon.","listText":"Say buy then say dont buy, so write something to tell you that not i say buy but also not i say dont buy when it moon.","text":"Say buy then say dont buy, so write something to tell you that not i say buy but also not i say dont buy when it moon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316312973385944","repostId":"2443561786","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2443561786","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1718247600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2443561786?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-13 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Nvidia Stock a Buy After the 10-for-1 Stock Split?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2443561786","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Shares in this artificial intelligence titan have become significantly cheaper, but its massive market cap remains the same.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Stock splits can help make a company&#39;s shares more liquid and available for small investors.</p></li><li><p>While Nvidia remains an excellent company, new investors should be careful about a possible slowdown in chip demand.</p></li></ul><p>With shares up by an eyewatering 25,000% over the last 10 years, it&#39;s no surprise that <strong>Nvidia</strong> relies on stock splits to keep its equity price manageable for smaller investors who may not have access to fractional shares. The most recent of these went into effect on June 7 and gave investors 10 shares of Nvidia for each one they previously owned -- bringing its stock price to around $125 at the time of writing.</p><p>The stock split did nothing to change Nvidia&#39;s $3 trillion market cap, which represents the value of all its shares combined. However, some market participants are hopeful that the lower share price could make Nvidia&#39;s equity more liquid and help it maintain its explosive bull run. Let&#39;s dig deeper to decide if this technology giant is still a buy.</p><h2 id=\"id_2636510373\">What is Nvidia&#39;s bull thesis?</h2><p>If the generative artificial intelligence (AI) industry can be likened to the California gold rush, Nvidia would be selling the picks and shovels every miner needs to dig for gold. The company&#39;s industry-leading graphics processing units (GPUs) are crucial for running and training complex AI algorithms. And this has led to explosive growth and margins.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fcbb1205d3af7318b8e54343aa41a239\" tg-width=\"1209\" tg-height=\"810\"/></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s first-quarter revenue increased 262% year over year to $26 billion, driven by sales of data center chips, such as the H100. And net income jumped 628% to $14.88 billion.</p><p>Considering this elevated growth rate, Nvidia&#39;s stock is still reasonably valued at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 47. For comparison, rival chipmaker <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has the same forward P/E despite only growing sales by 2% in its first quarter. That said, Nvidia&#39;s stock might not be as cheap as it looks on the surface.</p><h2 id=\"id_1438623380\">Nvidia is not as cheap as it looks</h2><p>Over the next few years, Nvidia will face incredibly challenging comps. After enjoying booming sales over the previous 12 months, it will be difficult for the company to continue growing its revenue relative to extremely high prior-year numbers. And this might be a big reason why the stock&#39;s forward valuation is so low relative to growth.</p><p>Demand could become another problem. While Nvidia&#39;s picks-and-shovels take on the AI industry protects it from competition on the consumer side of the industry, it wouldn&#39;t be shielded from an industrywide slowdown, which could occur if its clients aren&#39;t able to generate enough cash flow to justify their spending on Nvidia chips.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e88eaa3c0ff6a29bee20df2669504822\" alt=\"Image source: Getty Images.\" title=\"Image source: Getty Images.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"594\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p>The long-term prospects of AI look undeniably bright. But there could be many ups and downs before it reaches its full potential -- just like other major technologies like the internet, electric vehicles, or even blockchain.</p><h2 id=\"id_2923381452\">Buy with caution</h2><p>For many retail investors, Nvidia&#39;s stock split will be a powerful psychological encouragement to buy the stock. At just $120 per share, the mammoth company now looks relatively small. And those who were previously intimidated by its four-digit stock price may now be encouraged to finally pull the trigger and hit the buy button.</p><p>But while Nvidia certainly has a bright future as the AI industry develops, investors who buy the stock now are late to the party. And this brings the risk of being left holding the bag if things go wrong.</p><p>Over the next few years, Nvidia will face more difficult comps, which could cause top- and bottom-line growth to slow down, even if the AI industry remains strong. While shares still look capable of outperforming over the long term, investors should remain aware of the significant risks they are taking by buying a company that has already risen so far so fast.</p><p>Historically, no stock has grown exponentially forever. And Nvidia will likely face a correction at some point. Be careful out there.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nvidia Stock a Buy After the 10-for-1 Stock Split?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nvidia Stock a Buy After the 10-for-1 Stock Split?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-13 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/12/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-after-10-for-1-stock-split/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock splits can help make a company's shares more liquid and available for small investors.While Nvidia remains an excellent company, new investors should be careful about a possible slowdown in chip...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/12/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-after-10-for-1-stock-split/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/12/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-after-10-for-1-stock-split/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2443561786","content_text":"Stock splits can help make a company's shares more liquid and available for small investors.While Nvidia remains an excellent company, new investors should be careful about a possible slowdown in chip demand.With shares up by an eyewatering 25,000% over the last 10 years, it's no surprise that Nvidia relies on stock splits to keep its equity price manageable for smaller investors who may not have access to fractional shares. The most recent of these went into effect on June 7 and gave investors 10 shares of Nvidia for each one they previously owned -- bringing its stock price to around $125 at the time of writing.The stock split did nothing to change Nvidia's $3 trillion market cap, which represents the value of all its shares combined. However, some market participants are hopeful that the lower share price could make Nvidia's equity more liquid and help it maintain its explosive bull run. Let's dig deeper to decide if this technology giant is still a buy.What is Nvidia's bull thesis?If the generative artificial intelligence (AI) industry can be likened to the California gold rush, Nvidia would be selling the picks and shovels every miner needs to dig for gold. The company's industry-leading graphics processing units (GPUs) are crucial for running and training complex AI algorithms. And this has led to explosive growth and margins.Nvidia's first-quarter revenue increased 262% year over year to $26 billion, driven by sales of data center chips, such as the H100. And net income jumped 628% to $14.88 billion.Considering this elevated growth rate, Nvidia's stock is still reasonably valued at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 47. For comparison, rival chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices has the same forward P/E despite only growing sales by 2% in its first quarter. That said, Nvidia's stock might not be as cheap as it looks on the surface.Nvidia is not as cheap as it looksOver the next few years, Nvidia will face incredibly challenging comps. After enjoying booming sales over the previous 12 months, it will be difficult for the company to continue growing its revenue relative to extremely high prior-year numbers. And this might be a big reason why the stock's forward valuation is so low relative to growth.Demand could become another problem. While Nvidia's picks-and-shovels take on the AI industry protects it from competition on the consumer side of the industry, it wouldn't be shielded from an industrywide slowdown, which could occur if its clients aren't able to generate enough cash flow to justify their spending on Nvidia chips.Image source: Getty Images.The long-term prospects of AI look undeniably bright. But there could be many ups and downs before it reaches its full potential -- just like other major technologies like the internet, electric vehicles, or even blockchain.Buy with cautionFor many retail investors, Nvidia's stock split will be a powerful psychological encouragement to buy the stock. At just $120 per share, the mammoth company now looks relatively small. And those who were previously intimidated by its four-digit stock price may now be encouraged to finally pull the trigger and hit the buy button.But while Nvidia certainly has a bright future as the AI industry develops, investors who buy the stock now are late to the party. And this brings the risk of being left holding the bag if things go wrong.Over the next few years, Nvidia will face more difficult comps, which could cause top- and bottom-line growth to slow down, even if the AI industry remains strong. While shares still look capable of outperforming over the long term, investors should remain aware of the significant risks they are taking by buying a company that has already risen so far so fast.Historically, no stock has grown exponentially forever. And Nvidia will likely face a correction at some point. Be careful out there.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315352250642696,"gmtCreate":1718021758059,"gmtModify":1718022764618,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reuters love to repeats others' reports","listText":"Reuters love to repeats others' reports","text":"Reuters love to repeats others' reports","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315352250642696","repostId":"2442450845","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":310403892015136,"gmtCreate":1716780737200,"gmtModify":1716781493929,"author":{"id":"4164272763224692","authorId":"4164272763224692","name":"OngJH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4164272763224692","authorIdStr":"4164272763224692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Repeating paragraph, sound like in school making the word count.","listText":"Repeating paragraph, sound like in school making the word count.","text":"Repeating paragraph, sound like in school making the word count.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/310403892015136","repostId":"1183549079","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1183549079","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1716780404,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183549079?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-27 11:26","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Insurer’s Holders Seeking Better Offer From OCBC","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183549079","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The price of S$25.60 per share is well above the price before the announcement, but some shareholders point to a 30% discount against Great Eastern’s embedded value, a metric that’s been used to value","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The price of S$25.60 per share is well above the price before the announcement, but some shareholders point to a 30% discount against Great Eastern’s embedded value, a metric that’s <u>been used to value</u> insurance firms elsewhere. By that measure, it is half the valuation the bank used in its last attempt to take full ownership of the company. <u>Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.</u>, opening a new front in a longstanding fight between shareholder activists and Singapore’s second-largest lender.</p><p>The price of S$25.60 per share is well above the price before the announcement, but some shareholders point to a 30% discount against Great Eastern’s embedded value, a metric that’s <u>been used to value</u> insurance firms elsewhere. By that measure, it is half the valuation the bank used in its last attempt to take full ownership of the company.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OCBC, which holds more than 88% of Great Eastern, said earlier this month it is seeking to delist the stock.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/186136992cca54bc526d9ce25c3d847c\" tg-width=\"519\" tg-height=\"290\"/></p><p>“We are now caught between a rock and a hard place,” said Ong Chin Woo, who owns shares of Great Eastern and OCBC. Since 2021, he’s been a vocal spokesman for a group which now comprises more than 100 minority shareholders. “If OCBC has no other choices, at least give us a fair exit offer.”</p><p>An OCBC spokesperson defended the number, saying it reflects a roughly 40% premium over the price in both the month and the year before the announcement, as well as in multiples of the insurer’s book value and other financial metrics.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley banking analysts led by Nick Lord said the offer is “high” and will contribute positively to earnings at OCBC, as well as make management of the combined entity easier.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The bank has steadily built its 88.44% stake in the 116-year-old insurer, which operates in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Over the past ten years, it’s contributed an average of about S$700 million a year in net income to OCBC, equivalent to about 15% of OCBC’s annual profit, according to the bank.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Over the past decade through end of 2023, OCBC’s shares have risen more than 30%, while Great Eastern dropped 1%. The insurer’s minority shareholders have been lobbying for years for higher dividends and better liquidity.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">They’ve also objected to using OCBC stock to reward Great Eastern executives like Chief Executive Khor Hock Seng, whose long-term incentives have been paid in OCBC shares.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Great Eastern told investors in April that it has taken steps to strengthen capital management and improve dividend payouts but that many of the factors that affect share prices are beyond its control. As for the executive compensation, the insurer said the structure helps to foster “One OCBC Group” spirit with its holding company, and using GE shares would impact the stock’s liquidity.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e4c69ce35b872e0e8d1462bf37e58475\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OCBC’s current offer ascribes zero value to Great Eastern’s future underwriting and to its agency network, said Thilan Wickramasinghe, an analyst at Maybank Securities Pte. “There are risks that OCBC might have to make a higher offer in order to narrow that discount gap,” he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Some members of Singapore’s oldest business clans are invested in the outcome. Companies linked to Lee Thor Seng, part of the clan that co-founded OCBC, have a stake. Wong Hong Sun, whose grandfather was chairman of Great Eastern for close to twenty years, holds more than 3 million shares. “Even if I am not sentimental, I won’t sell,” he said. “Half price is no way.”</p><p>Great Eastern appointed EY as an independent financial adviser to assess the merit of OCBC’s offer and make a recommendation to shareholders. OCBC will dispatch the offer document to Great Eastern shareholders no later than the end of May, and the offer opens for at least 28 days, according to the current timeline.</p><p>“Normally you’d pay a substantial premium to take a majority stake of a company,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Lam said. But listed insurance firms are rare in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to find a comparable benchmark. And, he added, “this time we are dealing with a minority stake of 11.56%.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Insurer’s Holders Seeking Better Offer From OCBC</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Insurer’s Holders Seeking Better Offer From OCBC\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-27 11:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-26/singapore-insurer-s-holders-seeking-better-offer-from-ocbc?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The price of S$25.60 per share is well above the price before the announcement, but some shareholders point to a 30% discount against Great Eastern’s embedded value, a metric that’s been used to value...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-26/singapore-insurer-s-holders-seeking-better-offer-from-ocbc?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"O39.SI":"华侨银行"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-26/singapore-insurer-s-holders-seeking-better-offer-from-ocbc?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183549079","content_text":"The price of S$25.60 per share is well above the price before the announcement, but some shareholders point to a 30% discount against Great Eastern’s embedded value, a metric that’s been used to value insurance firms elsewhere. By that measure, it is half the valuation the bank used in its last attempt to take full ownership of the company. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., opening a new front in a longstanding fight between shareholder activists and Singapore’s second-largest lender.The price of S$25.60 per share is well above the price before the announcement, but some shareholders point to a 30% discount against Great Eastern’s embedded value, a metric that’s been used to value insurance firms elsewhere. By that measure, it is half the valuation the bank used in its last attempt to take full ownership of the company.OCBC, which holds more than 88% of Great Eastern, said earlier this month it is seeking to delist the stock.“We are now caught between a rock and a hard place,” said Ong Chin Woo, who owns shares of Great Eastern and OCBC. Since 2021, he’s been a vocal spokesman for a group which now comprises more than 100 minority shareholders. “If OCBC has no other choices, at least give us a fair exit offer.”An OCBC spokesperson defended the number, saying it reflects a roughly 40% premium over the price in both the month and the year before the announcement, as well as in multiples of the insurer’s book value and other financial metrics.Morgan Stanley banking analysts led by Nick Lord said the offer is “high” and will contribute positively to earnings at OCBC, as well as make management of the combined entity easier.The bank has steadily built its 88.44% stake in the 116-year-old insurer, which operates in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Over the past ten years, it’s contributed an average of about S$700 million a year in net income to OCBC, equivalent to about 15% of OCBC’s annual profit, according to the bank.Over the past decade through end of 2023, OCBC’s shares have risen more than 30%, while Great Eastern dropped 1%. The insurer’s minority shareholders have been lobbying for years for higher dividends and better liquidity.They’ve also objected to using OCBC stock to reward Great Eastern executives like Chief Executive Khor Hock Seng, whose long-term incentives have been paid in OCBC shares.Great Eastern told investors in April that it has taken steps to strengthen capital management and improve dividend payouts but that many of the factors that affect share prices are beyond its control. As for the executive compensation, the insurer said the structure helps to foster “One OCBC Group” spirit with its holding company, and using GE shares would impact the stock’s liquidity.OCBC’s current offer ascribes zero value to Great Eastern’s future underwriting and to its agency network, said Thilan Wickramasinghe, an analyst at Maybank Securities Pte. “There are risks that OCBC might have to make a higher offer in order to narrow that discount gap,” he said.Some members of Singapore’s oldest business clans are invested in the outcome. Companies linked to Lee Thor Seng, part of the clan that co-founded OCBC, have a stake. Wong Hong Sun, whose grandfather was chairman of Great Eastern for close to twenty years, holds more than 3 million shares. “Even if I am not sentimental, I won’t sell,” he said. “Half price is no way.”Great Eastern appointed EY as an independent financial adviser to assess the merit of OCBC’s offer and make a recommendation to shareholders. OCBC will dispatch the offer document to Great Eastern shareholders no later than the end of May, and the offer opens for at least 28 days, according to the current timeline.“Normally you’d pay a substantial premium to take a majority stake of a company,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Lam said. But listed insurance firms are rare in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to find a comparable benchmark. And, he added, “this time we are dealing with a minority stake of 11.56%.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}