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03-19

50/50 chance

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock This Week?

03-07

I think NVDA will continue rising

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03-04

True bro

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01-08

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$

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The tech giant holds more than an 80% share and sells a broad portfolio of products and services to power AI projects.</p><p>The secret of Nvidia&#39;s success is simple: The company sells the fastest chip around. Today, this is the H100 graphics processing unit (GPU), but Nvidia is set to launch new products in the months and years ahead as it pours investment into research and development (R&amp;D). The company&#39;s R&amp;D spending rose 18% last year to $8.6 billion.</p><p>All this means Nvidia&#39;s share price performance may be far from over -- and this week in particular, it may get a boost. Nvidia&#39;s holding its GTC AI Conference from Monday through Thursday, featuring a keynote speech by CEO Jensen Huang and more than 900 sessions involving industry experts. This is the first time the conference is being held in person since prior to the pandemic, so excitement is brewing. Should you rush to buy Nvidia stock this week to get in on the action? Let&#39;s find out.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/385f2f46da429a714be19286fbcd65b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"376\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2 id=\"id_2664656385\">Huang&#39;s GTC keynote</h2><p>First, a few notes about what to expect. Investors will listen closely to Huang&#39;s Monday keynote, focused on what&#39;s to come in accelerated computing, generative AI, and robotics. This should offer us a view of the environment for both the company and the industry in the coming year.</p><p>Some speculate that this week, Nvidia will introduce the much-anticipated Blackwell, its next-generation GPU architecture, and specifically the B100 AI chip. The B100 to power AI innovation will more than double the performance of Nvidia&#39;s soon-to-be released H200 when it comes to inference, according to Videocardz.com, citing an earlier Nvidia presentation.</p><p>The company hasn&#39;t announced a specific release date for Blackwell, but information offered so far suggests it should happen later this year. During the GTC conference, Huang may also update the crowd on other products, or even collaborations with partners.</p><p>A risk Nvidia faces is the idea that rivals could eat into its market share, so the company&#39;s ability to continually improve its GPUs and stay ahead is critical. That&#39;s why news about Blackwell and any other clues about the company&#39;s innovations are such important points to watch.</p><p>All this could support the idea that Nvidia&#39;s spectacular AI growth is far from over -- and may just be getting started. If this is the case, the record levels of earnings we&#39;ve seen so far aren&#39;t set to fall, and new records could be right around the corner. Optimism about this may translate into strong share performance for Nvidia in the coming days.</p><h2 id=\"id_3802853239\">A long-term buy</h2><p>So, let&#39;s get back to our question: Should you buy shares of Nvidia this week to potentially benefit from the momentum? Not necessarily. Nvidia represents a top long-term buy, so if you get in on this exciting story today, a week from now, or further down the road, you still could win. If you hold on to Nvidia shares for at least five years, one particular gain or loss over a period of days is unlikely to affect your returns by much.</p><p>This means that if you don&#39;t have the time or the cash to invest in Nvidia right this moment, that&#39;s OK. Considering the company&#39;s dominance in the high-growth AI market and its rapid pace of innovation, earnings and the share price could continue to climb over the long haul -- and this means you don&#39;t have to buy the stock during one particular week.</p><p>That said, if you do have the chance to invest in Nvidia, whether the stock rises, falls, or remains unchanged this week, now is a great time to get in on this AI tech story. The shares trade for 36 times forward earnings estimates, a very reasonable level considering Nvidia&#39;s tremendous growth prospects. Nvidia has already scored an AI win, but there may be many more AI wins to come -- and that could be great news for investors who choose to buy and hold the stock for the long term.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Nvidia Stock This Week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Nvidia Stock This Week?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-18 22:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/18/should-you-buy-nvidia-stock-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia is gearing up for its first in-person GTC conference in five years.The conference could offer investors important updates from Nvidia and valuable information from AI industry experts.Nvidia ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/18/should-you-buy-nvidia-stock-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4543":"AI","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/18/should-you-buy-nvidia-stock-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2420423014","content_text":"Nvidia is gearing up for its first in-person GTC conference in five years.The conference could offer investors important updates from Nvidia and valuable information from AI industry experts.Nvidia has climbed a mind-blowing 80% since the start of the year as the company's earnings continue to reach record levels -- and all this is thanks to its dominance in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market. The tech giant holds more than an 80% share and sells a broad portfolio of products and services to power AI projects.The secret of Nvidia's success is simple: The company sells the fastest chip around. Today, this is the H100 graphics processing unit (GPU), but Nvidia is set to launch new products in the months and years ahead as it pours investment into research and development (R&D). The company's R&D spending rose 18% last year to $8.6 billion.All this means Nvidia's share price performance may be far from over -- and this week in particular, it may get a boost. Nvidia's holding its GTC AI Conference from Monday through Thursday, featuring a keynote speech by CEO Jensen Huang and more than 900 sessions involving industry experts. This is the first time the conference is being held in person since prior to the pandemic, so excitement is brewing. Should you rush to buy Nvidia stock this week to get in on the action? Let's find out.Image source: Getty Images.Huang's GTC keynoteFirst, a few notes about what to expect. Investors will listen closely to Huang's Monday keynote, focused on what's to come in accelerated computing, generative AI, and robotics. This should offer us a view of the environment for both the company and the industry in the coming year.Some speculate that this week, Nvidia will introduce the much-anticipated Blackwell, its next-generation GPU architecture, and specifically the B100 AI chip. The B100 to power AI innovation will more than double the performance of Nvidia's soon-to-be released H200 when it comes to inference, according to Videocardz.com, citing an earlier Nvidia presentation.The company hasn't announced a specific release date for Blackwell, but information offered so far suggests it should happen later this year. During the GTC conference, Huang may also update the crowd on other products, or even collaborations with partners.A risk Nvidia faces is the idea that rivals could eat into its market share, so the company's ability to continually improve its GPUs and stay ahead is critical. That's why news about Blackwell and any other clues about the company's innovations are such important points to watch.All this could support the idea that Nvidia's spectacular AI growth is far from over -- and may just be getting started. If this is the case, the record levels of earnings we've seen so far aren't set to fall, and new records could be right around the corner. Optimism about this may translate into strong share performance for Nvidia in the coming days.A long-term buySo, let's get back to our question: Should you buy shares of Nvidia this week to potentially benefit from the momentum? Not necessarily. Nvidia represents a top long-term buy, so if you get in on this exciting story today, a week from now, or further down the road, you still could win. If you hold on to Nvidia shares for at least five years, one particular gain or loss over a period of days is unlikely to affect your returns by much.This means that if you don't have the time or the cash to invest in Nvidia right this moment, that's OK. Considering the company's dominance in the high-growth AI market and its rapid pace of innovation, earnings and the share price could continue to climb over the long haul -- and this means you don't have to buy the stock during one particular week.That said, if you do have the chance to invest in Nvidia, whether the stock rises, falls, or remains unchanged this week, now is a great time to get in on this AI tech story. The shares trade for 36 times forward earnings estimates, a very reasonable level considering Nvidia's tremendous growth prospects. Nvidia has already scored an AI win, but there may be many more AI wins to come -- and that could be great news for investors who choose to buy and hold the stock for the long term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":281527483556048,"gmtCreate":1709760896690,"gmtModify":1709763594402,"author":{"id":"4167768877853332","authorId":"4167768877853332","name":"oscarsuo817","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82494d42e7bb172d6efaa71b99752849","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167768877853332","authorIdStr":"4167768877853332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think NVDA will continue rising","listText":"I think NVDA will continue rising","text":"I think NVDA will continue rising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/281527483556048","repostId":"2417094444","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":280625267998776,"gmtCreate":1709537236479,"gmtModify":1709539376850,"author":{"id":"4167768877853332","authorId":"4167768877853332","name":"oscarsuo817","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82494d42e7bb172d6efaa71b99752849","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167768877853332","authorIdStr":"4167768877853332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True bro","listText":"True bro","text":"True bro","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/280625267998776","repostId":"2416760131","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260855154446496,"gmtCreate":1704695797631,"gmtModify":1704699430974,"author":{"id":"4167768877853332","authorId":"4167768877853332","name":"oscarsuo817","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82494d42e7bb172d6efaa71b99752849","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167768877853332","authorIdStr":"4167768877853332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260855154446496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":285739428315352,"gmtCreate":1710795310907,"gmtModify":1710799103853,"author":{"id":"4167768877853332","authorId":"4167768877853332","name":"oscarsuo817","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82494d42e7bb172d6efaa71b99752849","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167768877853332","authorIdStr":"4167768877853332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"50/50 chance","listText":"50/50 chance","text":"50/50 chance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/285739428315352","repostId":"2420423014","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":280625267998776,"gmtCreate":1709537236479,"gmtModify":1709539376850,"author":{"id":"4167768877853332","authorId":"4167768877853332","name":"oscarsuo817","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82494d42e7bb172d6efaa71b99752849","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167768877853332","authorIdStr":"4167768877853332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True bro","listText":"True bro","text":"True bro","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/280625267998776","repostId":"2416760131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2416760131","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1709535600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2416760131?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-04 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Is Halving Again in April. Here's Why It's Different This Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2416760131","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The crypto faces a confluence of factors impacting both its supply and demand sideBitcoin is trading less than 10% off of its all-time high.Bitcoin halvings have historically been viewed as a bullish ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The crypto faces a confluence of factors impacting both its supply and demand side</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc704623e9f5dec37fbe8ac1ea37a9c4\" alt=\"Bitcoin is trading less than 10% off of its all-time high.\" title=\"Bitcoin is trading less than 10% off of its all-time high.\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"615\"/><span>Bitcoin is trading less than 10% off of its all-time high.</span></p><p>Bitcoin halvings have historically been viewed as a bullish event for the cryptocurrency — and the upcoming one, expected in April, could benefit from an even more ideal setup than in previous cycles, according to crypto-market observers.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Halving is a mechanism written into the Bitcoin blockchain’s algorithm to control the coin’s supply, which has a cap of 21 million. At halvings, the reward for bitcoin mining is cut in half, meaning miners will receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions.</p><p>Halvings are scheduled to happen after every 210,000 blocks that are mined — or about every four years — until the maximum supply of bitcoin is all released. </p><p>Bitcoin tends to see price appreciation in the months after halvings, according to historical data. The next halving is expected to happen on April 19, according to a projection by bitcoin investment platform Swan Bitcoin. </p><p>But this particular halving comes at the first time in bitcoin’s history where the cryptocurrency faces a confluence of factors impacting both its supply and demand side, according to Cosmo Jiang, portfolio manager at crypto asset manager Pantera Capital. </p><p>As halvings control bitcoin supply, bitcoin exchange-traded funds are bringing in “steady daily inflows” into the crypto from the demand side, Jiang said in a call. In January, the U.S. Securities Exchange and Commission approved 10 bitcoin ETFs for the first time in history. </p><p>Increased institutional participation recently pushed bitcoin to a level near its record high, less than 50 days before the expected date of the halving. Bitcoin has rallied more than 40% so far this year to roughly $62,600, and is now less than 10% off of its all-time high of $68,990, reached in November 2021. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This run-up is different from bitcoin’s historical pattern before halving, according to Martin Leinweber, digital-asset product strategist at MarketVector Indexes. Historically, bitcoin’s performance has been relatively muted in the two to three months before halving, Leinweber noted. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Meanwhile, the Bitcoin blockchain is more secure now than it has been during previous halvings, according to Adam Swick, chief growth officer at bitcoin-mining company Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. Bitcoin’s total hash rate, or the total computational power securing the blockchain, hit a record high of around 600 million terahashes per second in February, according to data from Blockchain.com.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That helps alleviate some concerns around the security of the Bitcoin blockchain after the halving, as some miners may be forced to go offline when the rewards they get are cut in half, noted Swick. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While halving is generally a boon for bitcoin’s value, the crypto’s price tends to be highly volatile while macroeconomic conditions are uncertain. That may apply in the current climate, as some investors are worried that progress in disinflation may stall, while it remains unclear when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Michael Novogratz, chief executive at crypto investment firm Galaxy Investment Partners, recently told Bloomberg TV that bitcoin may see “some corrections” to its price before rallying to new record highs.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Is Halving Again in April. Here's Why It's Different This Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Is Halving Again in April. Here's Why It's Different This Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-04 15:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The crypto faces a confluence of factors impacting both its supply and demand side</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc704623e9f5dec37fbe8ac1ea37a9c4\" alt=\"Bitcoin is trading less than 10% off of its all-time high.\" title=\"Bitcoin is trading less than 10% off of its all-time high.\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"615\"/><span>Bitcoin is trading less than 10% off of its all-time high.</span></p><p>Bitcoin halvings have historically been viewed as a bullish event for the cryptocurrency — and the upcoming one, expected in April, could benefit from an even more ideal setup than in previous cycles, according to crypto-market observers.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Halving is a mechanism written into the Bitcoin blockchain’s algorithm to control the coin’s supply, which has a cap of 21 million. At halvings, the reward for bitcoin mining is cut in half, meaning miners will receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions.</p><p>Halvings are scheduled to happen after every 210,000 blocks that are mined — or about every four years — until the maximum supply of bitcoin is all released. </p><p>Bitcoin tends to see price appreciation in the months after halvings, according to historical data. The next halving is expected to happen on April 19, according to a projection by bitcoin investment platform Swan Bitcoin. </p><p>But this particular halving comes at the first time in bitcoin’s history where the cryptocurrency faces a confluence of factors impacting both its supply and demand side, according to Cosmo Jiang, portfolio manager at crypto asset manager Pantera Capital. </p><p>As halvings control bitcoin supply, bitcoin exchange-traded funds are bringing in “steady daily inflows” into the crypto from the demand side, Jiang said in a call. In January, the U.S. Securities Exchange and Commission approved 10 bitcoin ETFs for the first time in history. </p><p>Increased institutional participation recently pushed bitcoin to a level near its record high, less than 50 days before the expected date of the halving. Bitcoin has rallied more than 40% so far this year to roughly $62,600, and is now less than 10% off of its all-time high of $68,990, reached in November 2021. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This run-up is different from bitcoin’s historical pattern before halving, according to Martin Leinweber, digital-asset product strategist at MarketVector Indexes. Historically, bitcoin’s performance has been relatively muted in the two to three months before halving, Leinweber noted. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Meanwhile, the Bitcoin blockchain is more secure now than it has been during previous halvings, according to Adam Swick, chief growth officer at bitcoin-mining company Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. Bitcoin’s total hash rate, or the total computational power securing the blockchain, hit a record high of around 600 million terahashes per second in February, according to data from Blockchain.com.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That helps alleviate some concerns around the security of the Bitcoin blockchain after the halving, as some miners may be forced to go offline when the rewards they get are cut in half, noted Swick. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While halving is generally a boon for bitcoin’s value, the crypto’s price tends to be highly volatile while macroeconomic conditions are uncertain. That may apply in the current climate, as some investors are worried that progress in disinflation may stall, while it remains unclear when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Michael Novogratz, chief executive at crypto investment firm Galaxy Investment Partners, recently told Bloomberg TV that bitcoin may see “some corrections” to its price before rallying to new record highs.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BITB":"Bitwise Bitcoin ETF","BRRR":"Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","DEFI":"Hashdex Bitcoin ETF","IBIT":"iShares Bitcoin Trust","FBTC":"Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund","BTCO":"Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF","BTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust","BTCW":"WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund","HODL":"VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF","BITO":"ProShares Bitcoin ETF","EZBC":"Franklin Bitcoin ETF","ARKB":"ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2416760131","content_text":"The crypto faces a confluence of factors impacting both its supply and demand sideBitcoin is trading less than 10% off of its all-time high.Bitcoin halvings have historically been viewed as a bullish event for the cryptocurrency — and the upcoming one, expected in April, could benefit from an even more ideal setup than in previous cycles, according to crypto-market observers.Halving is a mechanism written into the Bitcoin blockchain’s algorithm to control the coin’s supply, which has a cap of 21 million. At halvings, the reward for bitcoin mining is cut in half, meaning miners will receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions.Halvings are scheduled to happen after every 210,000 blocks that are mined — or about every four years — until the maximum supply of bitcoin is all released. Bitcoin tends to see price appreciation in the months after halvings, according to historical data. The next halving is expected to happen on April 19, according to a projection by bitcoin investment platform Swan Bitcoin. But this particular halving comes at the first time in bitcoin’s history where the cryptocurrency faces a confluence of factors impacting both its supply and demand side, according to Cosmo Jiang, portfolio manager at crypto asset manager Pantera Capital. As halvings control bitcoin supply, bitcoin exchange-traded funds are bringing in “steady daily inflows” into the crypto from the demand side, Jiang said in a call. In January, the U.S. Securities Exchange and Commission approved 10 bitcoin ETFs for the first time in history. Increased institutional participation recently pushed bitcoin to a level near its record high, less than 50 days before the expected date of the halving. Bitcoin has rallied more than 40% so far this year to roughly $62,600, and is now less than 10% off of its all-time high of $68,990, reached in November 2021. This run-up is different from bitcoin’s historical pattern before halving, according to Martin Leinweber, digital-asset product strategist at MarketVector Indexes. Historically, bitcoin’s performance has been relatively muted in the two to three months before halving, Leinweber noted. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin blockchain is more secure now than it has been during previous halvings, according to Adam Swick, chief growth officer at bitcoin-mining company Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. Bitcoin’s total hash rate, or the total computational power securing the blockchain, hit a record high of around 600 million terahashes per second in February, according to data from Blockchain.com.That helps alleviate some concerns around the security of the Bitcoin blockchain after the halving, as some miners may be forced to go offline when the rewards they get are cut in half, noted Swick. While halving is generally a boon for bitcoin’s value, the crypto’s price tends to be highly volatile while macroeconomic conditions are uncertain. That may apply in the current climate, as some investors are worried that progress in disinflation may stall, while it remains unclear when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.Michael Novogratz, chief executive at crypto investment firm Galaxy Investment Partners, recently told Bloomberg TV that bitcoin may see “some corrections” to its price before rallying to new record highs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":281527483556048,"gmtCreate":1709760896690,"gmtModify":1709763594402,"author":{"id":"4167768877853332","authorId":"4167768877853332","name":"oscarsuo817","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82494d42e7bb172d6efaa71b99752849","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167768877853332","authorIdStr":"4167768877853332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think NVDA will continue rising","listText":"I think NVDA will continue rising","text":"I think NVDA will continue rising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/281527483556048","repostId":"2417094444","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2417094444","pubTimestamp":1709712996,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2417094444?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-06 16:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Seeing Growth Near-Term (Upgrade), Doubling Down On Skepticism Long-Term","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2417094444","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVIDIA Corporation continues to experience high demand and strong financial performance, and has a reasonable valuation, leading to a bullish outlook in the near-term.However, given its high, unsustai","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVIDIA Corporation continues to experience high demand and strong financial performance, and has a reasonable valuation, leading to a bullish outlook in the near-term.</p></li><li><p>However, given its high, unsustainable margins, competition from alternative solutions (with 2-10x lower TCO) could lead to a substantial decrease in pricing power and market share in the long term.</p></li><li><p>Investors should hence monitor the potential risks and consider taking profits in the medium term as revenue may eventually reach its peak.</p></li><li><p>Analog examples include profits of oil companies in function of oil prices, or how Intel&#39;s profits have shrunk in part due to AMD&#39;s rise. Nvidia is facing competition from both Intel and AMD.</p></li><li><p>Other risks include the unsustainability of its FCF/operating margin expansion (without which profits wouldn&#39;t have increased as much), and lower demand if Nvidia&#39;s customers don&#39;t generate enough profits from those GPUs.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85bfc955c6d409806eb1188e8f7286c5\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"490\"/></p><p>Justin Sullivan</p><h2 id=\"id_3187550570\">Investment Thesis</h2><p>In the near term, NVIDIA Corporation clearly continues to see incredible demand, which has and continues to propel revenue, earnings, and the stock prices. So, with no catching up to demand in sight for the next 1–2 years (according to Nvidia), and given an increase in earnings that has outpaced even the stock growth, clearly the only valid call for Nvidia would be a bullish one. Although with a $2T market cap, the high-growth multi-bagger gains have already been made, but that is reflected in the lowered valuation that warrants the bullish outlook.</p><p>That’s the near-term. For long-term investors, however, this simply isn’t a stock that one can just buy and forget about, even if GAI is a new generational tech trend. The reason is because Nvidia’s margins (both gross and operating) are so incredibly high that any alternative/competitive solution has a TCO of <em>at least</em> 2x (50%) less. Why spend over $50B (all its customers collectively) on Nvidia hardware when other products could deliver the same for far less than $25B? So, as competitors, notably Intel Corporation (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), as well as cloud service providers with their in-house designs, ramp their own products, in principle market dynamics <em>should</em> necessitate Nvidia to <em>drastically</em> lower prices and/or concede market share.</p><p>Nvidia is capitalizing on the GAI gold rush, which in the near term has no signs of slowing down (and has allowed Nvidia to charge such high prices), and this GAI trend is clearly moving faster than any market dynamics could, but that rush might not last forever and/or might eventually go through a commoditization/competitive phase where profits (and hence the stock) will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Similarly, one might liken Nvidia&#39;s earnings power to the oil industry. At times of high demand and short supply, oil prices (and hence profits) will be high. But as Nvidia and its competitors inevitably catch up to demand, those prices might shrink a lot.</p><h2 id=\"id_440436382\">Background</h2><p>Previous coverage in January already detailed quite extensively the bearish case for the stock. Here, that will be extended and concretized with a real-world example.</p><p>Nevertheless, what has changed compared to prior coverage is a firmer acknowledgment that the continued revenue and earnings beats, with earnings expanding far beyond the revenue growth due to increased leverage, have changed the investment profile in quite a short time. This is combined with continued visibility on forward growth (even if obviously the comps will become tougher, the growth will remain strong, especially compared to other Big Tech). As well as due to the quite stagnant stock price, which had been quite flat for much of 2023, despite those aforementioned beats.</p><p>Nevertheless, admittedly, this is a bit of a late call given the strong YTD rally in 2024. From the previous coverage:</p><blockquote><p>In the picture of the overall thesis, the main point here hasn&#39;t been that the stock is overvalued, it is rather the risk that Nvidia is currently capitalizing as basically the only scaled supplier of chips powering the LLM/AI explosion.</p></blockquote><p>That article’s valuation section also noted the 30x <em>run rate</em> P/E multiple, which given the continued expected growth (as it has been widely known for quite some that that Nvidia is a supply constraint), perhaps should have led to a more explicit bullish rating.</p><p>In that light, the previous coverage was perhaps too focused on the long-term (likely at least 3+ years from now), which might be less relevant given how quickly the financials and tech (“GAI gold rush”) are currently moving relative to any competitive dynamics. Even despite the strong YTD stock rally, recognizing this provides a bullish rating in the near-term, while remaining skeptical about the long term.</p><h2 id=\"id_100587332\">Thesis crux</h2><p>As explained previously, Nvidia is using its dominant position to charge prices far above anything that could ever be possible in a healthy, competitive market. This has recently been once again demonstrated in the following tweet, which shows an example where Intel’s Gaudi2 accelerator has an IaaS (cloud) price that is literally over 10x lower.</p><blockquote><p>Gaudi2: $10.42 / hour.</p><p>H100: $110.15 / hour.</p></blockquote><p>As publicly available MLPerf results readily show, this is very far in excess of any performance advantage Nvidia has, with Intel in fact claiming its upcoming Gaudi3 will exceed Nvidia’s H100/200 in performance. This is the simple downside risk that Nvidia investors face. Let’s say for simplicity that the H100/200 is 2x faster than Gaudi2. That still leaves a monstrous 5x TCO (total cost of ownership, i.e., price per hour for similar performance) advantage in favor of Intel. This means that to be competitive, in principle Nvidia would have to cut its prices by on the order of 5x.</p><p>Now, if Nvidia really did that, then that would be the difference between about $100B of data center revenue in 2024, generating up to $80B in gross profits, or $20B in revenue instead and maybe $12-14B in gross profits. That, in turn, could be the difference between a $2T or $350B market cap. So, in terms of operating margin and earnings power, basically, all the leverage that Nvidia has achieved over the last year that has propelled the stock would evaporate, and then some.</p><p>Basically, Nvidia&#39;s entire market cap is based upon its excessively high chip prices (as detailed in previous coverage, Nvidia charges <em>per chip</em> 2x more than what an entire TSMC wafer with ~70 chips costs, although an H100 does include HBM memory and other components).</p><p>To be sure, this example is likely a bit exaggerated, at least for 2024, as the data center business also includes its networking business and generated “only” $18.4B in the last quarter. Although its data center segment (GPU + networking) has been rising at about $4B per quarter, so at that rate it would indeed approach the $100B run rate in a few quarters.</p><p>In general, though, whatever the precise scale, the observation that competitive solutions are literally up to 10x cheaper is what matters.</p><p>For now, Nvidia maintains its scale and incumbency position advantages and has been able to satisfy the vast majority of the market’s AI hardware demand. But as competition ramps, surely customers will start weighing their options, for why would anyone spend $5B on Nvidia hardware when $1-2B of Intel or AMD hardware would yield <em>exactly</em> the same performance and capabilities?</p><p>For example, a company such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>, Inc. (META) would (in principle) certainly would see its shareholders ask them to go with the cheapest option, improving (in this example) the company’s FCF by up to $4B. With Meta having announced to acquire 300k Hopper GPUs in 2024, likely worth on the order of $10B, the example certainly isn’t exaggerated.</p><h2 id=\"id_2108530883\">Earnings results</h2><p>They are available on Seeking Alpha and have been widely covered.</p><h2 id=\"id_3058304923\">Valuation</h2><p>The stock traded for around $400-500 for much of 2023 after the initial upside outlook, with the rally towards $800 only occurring quite recently. Since the earnings have increased by far more over the last year, this shows that much of those earnings have only ‘served’ to compress the (forward) valuation multiple (growing into its valuation), which has dropped to ‘just’ over 30x currently, which is quite reasonable.</p><p>As such, with reasonable visibility over the next 1-2 years for continued growth, as the CEO said it would continue to be supply constraint during that time, the valuation warrants a bullish rating.</p><p>While it may seem a bit like conceding being wrong on the stock, upgrading to bullish only after a nearly 100% rally since last year’s Q1 results, as just described this is purely due to the valuation and increased certainty that this isn’t just a one-off spike in demand, but instead a sustained trend of increased demand. (Since the previous coverage in January had already noted the 30x run rate P/E multiple, this indeed should have been the conclusion back then already, before the ~50% rally.)</p><p>Even bulls would likely concede that they wouldn’t have expected Nvidia’s data center segment to (suddenly) grow at around a $4B per quarter clip, <em>for several quarters</em>, as the entire business had previously only been around the size of $4B, with quite modest growth. That certainly classifies as a black swan event.</p><p>In hindsight, this continued growth was the risk-reward investors had to pay a premium multiple for. But given the uncertainty as a black swan event, it would make sense for some to (prefer to) stay on the sidelines.</p><h2 id=\"id_1219186950\">Operating leverage risk</h2><p>In an extension of the valuation discussion, though, with a market cap approaching $2T, clearly the major stock gains have already been made over the last few years. In fact, a substantial portion of the ongoing rally (from $120 to $300) already occurred prior to Nvidia’s upside outlook nearly a year ago (although that was due to the stock being down from its previous high, bottoming in late 2022).</p><p>As another analyst detailed, one of the reasons for the strong earnings growth that has allowed for this performance (beyond simply growing into its valuation), has been the increase in leverage (operating/income margin).</p><blockquote><p>The expansion of free cash flow margins, for me, was actually the biggest takeaway from Nvidia&#39;s fourth quarter earnings release: while Nvidia&#39;s revenues soared 265% year over year in FQ4&#39;24, Nvidia&#39;s free cash flow grew twice as fast (+546% Y/Y) which resulted in a massive improvement in the company&#39;s free cash flow margin. The firm&#39;s FCF margin expanded to a massive 51%, showing 22 PP growth year over year. This takeaway is significant because Nvidia has managed to become more profitable and now retains a much larger share of its revenues as free cash flow than last year.</p></blockquote><p>With a nearly doubling of the FCF margin, this alone could be attributed for much of the stock performance over the last year and months. But clearly, the risk is hence that this isn’t sustainable, even disregarding the above discussion about a potentially ~5x decrease in pricing power in a bearish scenario. As such, any stock gains going forward will likely be mostly a function of continued (more linear) earnings growth from higher revenue, which will slow down on tougher comps, combined with any changes in the valuation multiple.</p><p>In other words, any forward stock gains will likely be smaller, although for which the market is now (indeed) demanding a smaller (less risky) valuation (P/E multiple). Still, admittedly even with tougher comps ahead, Nvidia will likely remain (among) the fastest-growing Big Tech for the next few years or so.</p><h2 id=\"id_3311575670\">End-user application risk</h2><p>With some already extrapolating growth trending towards $200B revenue, one other risk that does remain is that all this spending by Nvidia’s customers at some point would also have to start generating some returns for <em>them</em> (not just for Nvidia). The point is that Nvidia already had a data center business prior to GAI, which was driven by AI, so seemingly the majority of its revenue is currently driven by that one application class. However, the leader in GAI, OpenAI, likely still only has revenue in the single-digit billions, with a valuation that is lower than Nvidia&#39;s entire annual revenue. So clearly, there is a lot of upfront spending on GAI, which may perhaps subside if it does not yield appropriate returns for Nvidia&#39;s customers.</p><p>On the other hand, other Big Tech than OpenAI, such as Meta, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), (GOOGL) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), are clearly capable of spending this money, and will likely continue to do so give their strategic imperative to lead in this area. Still, a graph plotting Nvidia&#39;s revenue as % of Big Tech capex showed a correlation at about 60%, which is very high (even if it might be somewhat inflated as Nvidia has other customers too).</p><h2 id=\"id_4240969953\">Investor Takeaway</h2><h3 id=\"id_2156928369\">Near term</h3><p>Despite the continued stock rally because its increase has been less than its earnings over the last year, this means the stock has become much less risky (although a bit more than before the YTD rally). This is confirmed by, indeed, the forward valuation multiple compressing to ‘just’ around 30x, although with the caveat that this prices in growth for another full year (except for any earnings beats, which are likely as Nvidia has only provided next-quarter guidance). This in turn means any stock upside (without multiple expansions and aside from any 2024 beats) does rely on further growth in 2025 (as that is the nature of a forward valuation multiple). Nevertheless, with Jensen Huang’s comment that he doesn’t fully except supply to catch up to demand even next year, this most likely largely de-risks the stock.</p><p>While the declined valuation multiple (despite continued growth visibility) makes the stock a lot more investible, without any further increase in operating leverage (which seems unlikely with the FCF margin now over 50%), unless the data center business keeps growing unboundedly (which is also doubtful, but to some extent possible), the ‘price’ of this lowered stock risk is also the likely lower returns going forward, with the market cap nearing $2T.</p><p>In other words, despite the strong growth, this isn&#39;t a growth stock anymore, but this might actually be a reason to invest in the stock, as growth stocks are known for their possible large sell-offs, which given the de-risked valuation seems unlikely. Still, even as the YoY comps are becoming tougher, for the near future Nvidia will likely remain (one of) the fastest-growing Big Tech, so the forward returns might remain quite decent.</p><p>Overall, the skyrocketing revenue stacked with strong leverage expansion, combined with (comparatively) only modest stock growth over the last year, has in quite a short time drastically changed the stock outlook and risk profile, in the near term.</p><h3 id=\"id_3382935915\">Long term</h3><p>In the longer-term of many years, though, the risks previously detailed remain as valid as they were: that Nvidia’s financials are currently moving much faster than any market dynamics could, doesn’t invalidate those. Specifically, the risk is the combination of substantial pricing power loss and market share erosion as the competition ramps, both from AMD/Intel as well as from internal chip design efforts such as by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. That 80+% data center margin simply isn’t sustainable in a competitive market.</p><p>As proof, one real-world example was shown where the Intel offering currently delivers an over 5x improvement in TCO. That is effectively the difference between spending $1B instead of $5B on AI infrastructure. As Nvidia’s earnings show, with so much money being made (at the expense of its customers&#39; potential earnings/FCF), there should be zero reasons not to expect its customers to investigate alternative solutions to decrease their own spending, which would in turn reduce Nvidia’s revenue, earnings and accrued leverage. In this (perhaps extreme) example, that would be the difference between earning just $20B instead of $100B in data center revenue, and that is before any decline in market share that would have led Nvidia to decrease its pricing in the first place.</p><p>In practice, for any new or existing shareholder, while as mentioned this might not be relevant for at least a few more years, recognizing this does mean one might expect (and should monitor for) an eventual top in revenue in the medium term, and hence consider taking at least some profits in due time. This would be similar to how for example declining oil prices would move the price of such stocks downwards, or even how Intel’s revenue and stock has seen downward pressure in the wake of AMD’s rise. There is no reason this couldn&#39;t to Nvidia, and given its margin profile as described, there are likely even more reasons to expect this to happen.</p><p>As such, the skeptical/bearish long-term stance for Nvidia Corporation remains valid, although as mentioned, it might still be a few years before the revenue/stock top.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Seeing Growth Near-Term (Upgrade), Doubling Down On Skepticism Long-Term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Seeing Growth Near-Term (Upgrade), Doubling Down On Skepticism Long-Term\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-06 16:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4675927-nvidia-seeing-growth-near-term-upgrade-doubling-down-on-skepticism-long-term><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation continues to experience high demand and strong financial performance, and has a reasonable valuation, leading to a bullish outlook in the near-term.However, given its high, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4675927-nvidia-seeing-growth-near-term-upgrade-doubling-down-on-skepticism-long-term\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4675927-nvidia-seeing-growth-near-term-upgrade-doubling-down-on-skepticism-long-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2417094444","content_text":"NVIDIA Corporation continues to experience high demand and strong financial performance, and has a reasonable valuation, leading to a bullish outlook in the near-term.However, given its high, unsustainable margins, competition from alternative solutions (with 2-10x lower TCO) could lead to a substantial decrease in pricing power and market share in the long term.Investors should hence monitor the potential risks and consider taking profits in the medium term as revenue may eventually reach its peak.Analog examples include profits of oil companies in function of oil prices, or how Intel's profits have shrunk in part due to AMD's rise. Nvidia is facing competition from both Intel and AMD.Other risks include the unsustainability of its FCF/operating margin expansion (without which profits wouldn't have increased as much), and lower demand if Nvidia's customers don't generate enough profits from those GPUs.Justin SullivanInvestment ThesisIn the near term, NVIDIA Corporation clearly continues to see incredible demand, which has and continues to propel revenue, earnings, and the stock prices. So, with no catching up to demand in sight for the next 1–2 years (according to Nvidia), and given an increase in earnings that has outpaced even the stock growth, clearly the only valid call for Nvidia would be a bullish one. Although with a $2T market cap, the high-growth multi-bagger gains have already been made, but that is reflected in the lowered valuation that warrants the bullish outlook.That’s the near-term. For long-term investors, however, this simply isn’t a stock that one can just buy and forget about, even if GAI is a new generational tech trend. The reason is because Nvidia’s margins (both gross and operating) are so incredibly high that any alternative/competitive solution has a TCO of at least 2x (50%) less. Why spend over $50B (all its customers collectively) on Nvidia hardware when other products could deliver the same for far less than $25B? So, as competitors, notably Intel Corporation (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), as well as cloud service providers with their in-house designs, ramp their own products, in principle market dynamics should necessitate Nvidia to drastically lower prices and/or concede market share.Nvidia is capitalizing on the GAI gold rush, which in the near term has no signs of slowing down (and has allowed Nvidia to charge such high prices), and this GAI trend is clearly moving faster than any market dynamics could, but that rush might not last forever and/or might eventually go through a commoditization/competitive phase where profits (and hence the stock) will inevitably shrink.Similarly, one might liken Nvidia's earnings power to the oil industry. At times of high demand and short supply, oil prices (and hence profits) will be high. But as Nvidia and its competitors inevitably catch up to demand, those prices might shrink a lot.BackgroundPrevious coverage in January already detailed quite extensively the bearish case for the stock. Here, that will be extended and concretized with a real-world example.Nevertheless, what has changed compared to prior coverage is a firmer acknowledgment that the continued revenue and earnings beats, with earnings expanding far beyond the revenue growth due to increased leverage, have changed the investment profile in quite a short time. This is combined with continued visibility on forward growth (even if obviously the comps will become tougher, the growth will remain strong, especially compared to other Big Tech). As well as due to the quite stagnant stock price, which had been quite flat for much of 2023, despite those aforementioned beats.Nevertheless, admittedly, this is a bit of a late call given the strong YTD rally in 2024. From the previous coverage:In the picture of the overall thesis, the main point here hasn't been that the stock is overvalued, it is rather the risk that Nvidia is currently capitalizing as basically the only scaled supplier of chips powering the LLM/AI explosion.That article’s valuation section also noted the 30x run rate P/E multiple, which given the continued expected growth (as it has been widely known for quite some that that Nvidia is a supply constraint), perhaps should have led to a more explicit bullish rating.In that light, the previous coverage was perhaps too focused on the long-term (likely at least 3+ years from now), which might be less relevant given how quickly the financials and tech (“GAI gold rush”) are currently moving relative to any competitive dynamics. Even despite the strong YTD stock rally, recognizing this provides a bullish rating in the near-term, while remaining skeptical about the long term.Thesis cruxAs explained previously, Nvidia is using its dominant position to charge prices far above anything that could ever be possible in a healthy, competitive market. This has recently been once again demonstrated in the following tweet, which shows an example where Intel’s Gaudi2 accelerator has an IaaS (cloud) price that is literally over 10x lower.Gaudi2: $10.42 / hour.H100: $110.15 / hour.As publicly available MLPerf results readily show, this is very far in excess of any performance advantage Nvidia has, with Intel in fact claiming its upcoming Gaudi3 will exceed Nvidia’s H100/200 in performance. This is the simple downside risk that Nvidia investors face. Let’s say for simplicity that the H100/200 is 2x faster than Gaudi2. That still leaves a monstrous 5x TCO (total cost of ownership, i.e., price per hour for similar performance) advantage in favor of Intel. This means that to be competitive, in principle Nvidia would have to cut its prices by on the order of 5x.Now, if Nvidia really did that, then that would be the difference between about $100B of data center revenue in 2024, generating up to $80B in gross profits, or $20B in revenue instead and maybe $12-14B in gross profits. That, in turn, could be the difference between a $2T or $350B market cap. So, in terms of operating margin and earnings power, basically, all the leverage that Nvidia has achieved over the last year that has propelled the stock would evaporate, and then some.Basically, Nvidia's entire market cap is based upon its excessively high chip prices (as detailed in previous coverage, Nvidia charges per chip 2x more than what an entire TSMC wafer with ~70 chips costs, although an H100 does include HBM memory and other components).To be sure, this example is likely a bit exaggerated, at least for 2024, as the data center business also includes its networking business and generated “only” $18.4B in the last quarter. Although its data center segment (GPU + networking) has been rising at about $4B per quarter, so at that rate it would indeed approach the $100B run rate in a few quarters.In general, though, whatever the precise scale, the observation that competitive solutions are literally up to 10x cheaper is what matters.For now, Nvidia maintains its scale and incumbency position advantages and has been able to satisfy the vast majority of the market’s AI hardware demand. But as competition ramps, surely customers will start weighing their options, for why would anyone spend $5B on Nvidia hardware when $1-2B of Intel or AMD hardware would yield exactly the same performance and capabilities?For example, a company such as Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) would (in principle) certainly would see its shareholders ask them to go with the cheapest option, improving (in this example) the company’s FCF by up to $4B. With Meta having announced to acquire 300k Hopper GPUs in 2024, likely worth on the order of $10B, the example certainly isn’t exaggerated.Earnings resultsThey are available on Seeking Alpha and have been widely covered.ValuationThe stock traded for around $400-500 for much of 2023 after the initial upside outlook, with the rally towards $800 only occurring quite recently. Since the earnings have increased by far more over the last year, this shows that much of those earnings have only ‘served’ to compress the (forward) valuation multiple (growing into its valuation), which has dropped to ‘just’ over 30x currently, which is quite reasonable.As such, with reasonable visibility over the next 1-2 years for continued growth, as the CEO said it would continue to be supply constraint during that time, the valuation warrants a bullish rating.While it may seem a bit like conceding being wrong on the stock, upgrading to bullish only after a nearly 100% rally since last year’s Q1 results, as just described this is purely due to the valuation and increased certainty that this isn’t just a one-off spike in demand, but instead a sustained trend of increased demand. (Since the previous coverage in January had already noted the 30x run rate P/E multiple, this indeed should have been the conclusion back then already, before the ~50% rally.)Even bulls would likely concede that they wouldn’t have expected Nvidia’s data center segment to (suddenly) grow at around a $4B per quarter clip, for several quarters, as the entire business had previously only been around the size of $4B, with quite modest growth. That certainly classifies as a black swan event.In hindsight, this continued growth was the risk-reward investors had to pay a premium multiple for. But given the uncertainty as a black swan event, it would make sense for some to (prefer to) stay on the sidelines.Operating leverage riskIn an extension of the valuation discussion, though, with a market cap approaching $2T, clearly the major stock gains have already been made over the last few years. In fact, a substantial portion of the ongoing rally (from $120 to $300) already occurred prior to Nvidia’s upside outlook nearly a year ago (although that was due to the stock being down from its previous high, bottoming in late 2022).As another analyst detailed, one of the reasons for the strong earnings growth that has allowed for this performance (beyond simply growing into its valuation), has been the increase in leverage (operating/income margin).The expansion of free cash flow margins, for me, was actually the biggest takeaway from Nvidia's fourth quarter earnings release: while Nvidia's revenues soared 265% year over year in FQ4'24, Nvidia's free cash flow grew twice as fast (+546% Y/Y) which resulted in a massive improvement in the company's free cash flow margin. The firm's FCF margin expanded to a massive 51%, showing 22 PP growth year over year. This takeaway is significant because Nvidia has managed to become more profitable and now retains a much larger share of its revenues as free cash flow than last year.With a nearly doubling of the FCF margin, this alone could be attributed for much of the stock performance over the last year and months. But clearly, the risk is hence that this isn’t sustainable, even disregarding the above discussion about a potentially ~5x decrease in pricing power in a bearish scenario. As such, any stock gains going forward will likely be mostly a function of continued (more linear) earnings growth from higher revenue, which will slow down on tougher comps, combined with any changes in the valuation multiple.In other words, any forward stock gains will likely be smaller, although for which the market is now (indeed) demanding a smaller (less risky) valuation (P/E multiple). Still, admittedly even with tougher comps ahead, Nvidia will likely remain (among) the fastest-growing Big Tech for the next few years or so.End-user application riskWith some already extrapolating growth trending towards $200B revenue, one other risk that does remain is that all this spending by Nvidia’s customers at some point would also have to start generating some returns for them (not just for Nvidia). The point is that Nvidia already had a data center business prior to GAI, which was driven by AI, so seemingly the majority of its revenue is currently driven by that one application class. However, the leader in GAI, OpenAI, likely still only has revenue in the single-digit billions, with a valuation that is lower than Nvidia's entire annual revenue. So clearly, there is a lot of upfront spending on GAI, which may perhaps subside if it does not yield appropriate returns for Nvidia's customers.On the other hand, other Big Tech than OpenAI, such as Meta, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), (GOOGL) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), are clearly capable of spending this money, and will likely continue to do so give their strategic imperative to lead in this area. Still, a graph plotting Nvidia's revenue as % of Big Tech capex showed a correlation at about 60%, which is very high (even if it might be somewhat inflated as Nvidia has other customers too).Investor TakeawayNear termDespite the continued stock rally because its increase has been less than its earnings over the last year, this means the stock has become much less risky (although a bit more than before the YTD rally). This is confirmed by, indeed, the forward valuation multiple compressing to ‘just’ around 30x, although with the caveat that this prices in growth for another full year (except for any earnings beats, which are likely as Nvidia has only provided next-quarter guidance). This in turn means any stock upside (without multiple expansions and aside from any 2024 beats) does rely on further growth in 2025 (as that is the nature of a forward valuation multiple). Nevertheless, with Jensen Huang’s comment that he doesn’t fully except supply to catch up to demand even next year, this most likely largely de-risks the stock.While the declined valuation multiple (despite continued growth visibility) makes the stock a lot more investible, without any further increase in operating leverage (which seems unlikely with the FCF margin now over 50%), unless the data center business keeps growing unboundedly (which is also doubtful, but to some extent possible), the ‘price’ of this lowered stock risk is also the likely lower returns going forward, with the market cap nearing $2T.In other words, despite the strong growth, this isn't a growth stock anymore, but this might actually be a reason to invest in the stock, as growth stocks are known for their possible large sell-offs, which given the de-risked valuation seems unlikely. Still, even as the YoY comps are becoming tougher, for the near future Nvidia will likely remain (one of) the fastest-growing Big Tech, so the forward returns might remain quite decent.Overall, the skyrocketing revenue stacked with strong leverage expansion, combined with (comparatively) only modest stock growth over the last year, has in quite a short time drastically changed the stock outlook and risk profile, in the near term.Long termIn the longer-term of many years, though, the risks previously detailed remain as valid as they were: that Nvidia’s financials are currently moving much faster than any market dynamics could, doesn’t invalidate those. Specifically, the risk is the combination of substantial pricing power loss and market share erosion as the competition ramps, both from AMD/Intel as well as from internal chip design efforts such as by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. That 80+% data center margin simply isn’t sustainable in a competitive market.As proof, one real-world example was shown where the Intel offering currently delivers an over 5x improvement in TCO. That is effectively the difference between spending $1B instead of $5B on AI infrastructure. As Nvidia’s earnings show, with so much money being made (at the expense of its customers' potential earnings/FCF), there should be zero reasons not to expect its customers to investigate alternative solutions to decrease their own spending, which would in turn reduce Nvidia’s revenue, earnings and accrued leverage. In this (perhaps extreme) example, that would be the difference between earning just $20B instead of $100B in data center revenue, and that is before any decline in market share that would have led Nvidia to decrease its pricing in the first place.In practice, for any new or existing shareholder, while as mentioned this might not be relevant for at least a few more years, recognizing this does mean one might expect (and should monitor for) an eventual top in revenue in the medium term, and hence consider taking at least some profits in due time. This would be similar to how for example declining oil prices would move the price of such stocks downwards, or even how Intel’s revenue and stock has seen downward pressure in the wake of AMD’s rise. There is no reason this couldn't to Nvidia, and given its margin profile as described, there are likely even more reasons to expect this to happen.As such, the skeptical/bearish long-term stance for Nvidia Corporation remains valid, although as mentioned, it might still be a few years before the revenue/stock top.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260855154446496,"gmtCreate":1704695797631,"gmtModify":1704699430974,"author":{"id":"4167768877853332","authorId":"4167768877853332","name":"oscarsuo817","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82494d42e7bb172d6efaa71b99752849","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167768877853332","authorIdStr":"4167768877853332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260855154446496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}