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10-09

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10-03

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AMD Rises After BofA Keeps Buy Rating Ahead of AI Event Spurring Investor Debate

09-03

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Top Calls on Wall Street: Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, Boeing, Bank of America, IBM, Meta, Uber & More

08-23

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The Make-or-Break Moment That Will Determine the Economy's Fate

07-19

$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$

03-28

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@Henryee18:$Reddit(RDDT)$ Not for ordinary investors. For me the fundamental is not really strong and I will not invest in this "meme" stock... Anymore 🥲

03-25

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$

03-22

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Crypto Shares Dropped in Morning Trading, With Bit Digital Falling over 7%

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news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356206499090848","repostId":"1136164227","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136164227","pubTimestamp":1727967753,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136164227?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-03 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Rises After BofA Keeps Buy Rating Ahead of AI Event Spurring Investor Debate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136164227","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices' stock rose about 3% on Thursday after BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating ahead of the company's AI event on Oct. 10.Analysts led by Vivek Arya said their top AI picks re","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Advanced Micro Devices&#39; stock rose about 3% on Thursday after BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating ahead of the company&#39;s AI event on Oct. 10.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Analysts led by Vivek Arya said their top AI picks remain Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). However, they noted that AMD&#39;s rating was maintained because the company is uniquely positioned for — CPU Share gains: AMD can capitalize in PC/server and CPU share market by taking share from Intel (INTC), which remains in turmoil with frequent restructuring.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The second is, AI growth: Ride the expanding AI market (2027 AI accelerator total addressable market, or TAM, at over $400B, according to AMD) where the leader Nvidia continues to expand the addressable market that is always looking for alternative merchant and application-specific integrated circuit, or ASIC, suppliers, according to the analysts.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Last year AMD&#39;s event, known as Advancing AI, was held on Dec. 6 and produced 19%/80% stock returns 1/3 months later (compared to Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) up 10%/37%), as AMD unveiled a massive $400B 2027 TAM in AI accelerators, the analysts added.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Similarly, roadmap updates in AI (MI-325/250/400) and server CPU (Zen-5 based Turin, versus Intel Granite Rapids) with supporting cloud customer comments could reinvigorate AMD stock, which is up about 9% year-to-date, well below SOX which has risen around 22%, as per the analysts.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, the competitive landscape is getting crowded, while expectations are already high with investors expecting AMD to boost 2024 AI sales by another 10% to over $5B, while showing a path to doubling it year-over-year to $10B in 2025, BofA noted.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Arya and his team added that current consensus of $5.1B/$9.7B/$12.8B for &#39;24/25/26 AI sales implies that AMD&#39;s accelerator market share likely remains around 5% to 7%, well below its 20%+ share in consumer CPU and gaming GPU.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The analysts said that AMD is off to a remarkable start but it could be tougher to carve a bigger niche between Nvidia&#39;s over 80% to 85% share, cloud incumbency, over 15-years software/developer lead on one extreme, and the nearly 10% market share presence of cost-optimized custom ASICs from Broadcom /Marvell Technology (MRVL) on the other extreme.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, if, AMD is able to show a path to 10% AI share by 2026, it would conceptually add around $5B (on top of $12.6B) in sales, with scenario EPS of around $8-$9 (vs. consensus at $7.37).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a Hold rating at Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant Rating system, which consistently beats the market. Meanwhile, the Seeking Alpha authors&#39; average rating is more positive with a Buy, and so is the average Wall Street analysts&#39; rating Buy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Rises After BofA Keeps Buy Rating Ahead of AI Event Spurring Investor Debate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Rises After BofA Keeps Buy Rating Ahead of AI Event Spurring Investor Debate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-03 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4156058-amd-rises-after-bofa-keeps-buy-rating-ahead-of-ai-event-spurring-investor-debate><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices' stock rose about 3% on Thursday after BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating ahead of the company's AI event on Oct. 10.Analysts led by Vivek Arya said their top AI picks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4156058-amd-rises-after-bofa-keeps-buy-rating-ahead-of-ai-event-spurring-investor-debate\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4156058-amd-rises-after-bofa-keeps-buy-rating-ahead-of-ai-event-spurring-investor-debate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1136164227","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices' stock rose about 3% on Thursday after BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating ahead of the company's AI event on Oct. 10.Analysts led by Vivek Arya said their top AI picks remain Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). However, they noted that AMD's rating was maintained because the company is uniquely positioned for — CPU Share gains: AMD can capitalize in PC/server and CPU share market by taking share from Intel (INTC), which remains in turmoil with frequent restructuring.The second is, AI growth: Ride the expanding AI market (2027 AI accelerator total addressable market, or TAM, at over $400B, according to AMD) where the leader Nvidia continues to expand the addressable market that is always looking for alternative merchant and application-specific integrated circuit, or ASIC, suppliers, according to the analysts.Last year AMD's event, known as Advancing AI, was held on Dec. 6 and produced 19%/80% stock returns 1/3 months later (compared to Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) up 10%/37%), as AMD unveiled a massive $400B 2027 TAM in AI accelerators, the analysts added.Similarly, roadmap updates in AI (MI-325/250/400) and server CPU (Zen-5 based Turin, versus Intel Granite Rapids) with supporting cloud customer comments could reinvigorate AMD stock, which is up about 9% year-to-date, well below SOX which has risen around 22%, as per the analysts.However, the competitive landscape is getting crowded, while expectations are already high with investors expecting AMD to boost 2024 AI sales by another 10% to over $5B, while showing a path to doubling it year-over-year to $10B in 2025, BofA noted.Arya and his team added that current consensus of $5.1B/$9.7B/$12.8B for '24/25/26 AI sales implies that AMD's accelerator market share likely remains around 5% to 7%, well below its 20%+ share in consumer CPU and gaming GPU.The analysts said that AMD is off to a remarkable start but it could be tougher to carve a bigger niche between Nvidia's over 80% to 85% share, cloud incumbency, over 15-years software/developer lead on one extreme, and the nearly 10% market share presence of cost-optimized custom ASICs from Broadcom /Marvell Technology (MRVL) on the other extreme.However, if, AMD is able to show a path to 10% AI share by 2026, it would conceptually add around $5B (on top of $12.6B) in sales, with scenario EPS of around $8-$9 (vs. consensus at $7.37).Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a Hold rating at Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating system, which consistently beats the market. Meanwhile, the Seeking Alpha authors' average rating is more positive with a Buy, and so is the average Wall Street analysts' rating Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345437900783760,"gmtCreate":1725377720906,"gmtModify":1725377724571,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345437900783760","repostId":"1135102427","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135102427","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1725375514,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135102427?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-03 22:58","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Top Calls on Wall Street: Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, Boeing, Bank of America, IBM, Meta, Uber & More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135102427","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:Wells Fargo downgrades Boeing to underweight from equal weightWells said in its downgrade of the aerospace giant that it’s a “cash opportunity missed.”“","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:</p><h2 id=\"id_1042980453\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Wells Fargo downgrades Boeing to underweight from equal weight</h2><p>Wells said in its downgrade of the aerospace giant that it’s a “cash opportunity missed.”</p><p>“We think <u>BA</u> had a generational FCF opportunity this decade, driven by ramping production on mature aircraft and low investment need. But after extensive delays and added cost, we now see growing production cash flow running into a new aircraft investment cycle, capping FCF a few years out.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1448037628\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Deutsche Bank upgrades Bank of America and Wells Fargo to buy from hold and downgrades JPMorgan to hold form buy</h2><p>The firm said it’s getting bullish on several banks on Tuesday. Deutsche also downgraded JPMorgan citing “less upside.”</p><p>“While we continue to view the overall bank group as somewhat in no man’s land, we see some shifting in opportunities within our coverage. As part of this, we are downgrading <u>JPM</u> from BUY to HOLD and upgrading both <u>BAC</u> and <u>WFC</u> from HOLD to BUY.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1294014026\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Evercore ISI upgrades Southwest to outperform from in line</h2><p>Evercore said it sees several positive catalysts ahead for the airline.</p><p>“Our rating on <u>LUV</u> shares is raised to Outperform from In Line given the long-awaited transition to capacity discipline (culling least productive flying), new revenue initiatives to be outlined at upcoming Sept. 26 investor day (assigned seating, premium economy) and strong underlying fleet value.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2685769590\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Piper Sandler downgrades Simon Property to neutral from overweight</h2><p>Piper said it’s worried about slowing earnings growth for the real estate investment trust mall operator.</p><p>“Our rating change is based on anticipated slower earnings growth for <u>SPG</u> versus shopping centers over the next 2 years and represents the first time we haven’t had an OW rating since late 2009.”</p><h2 id=\"id_14844766\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley upgrades Unity Software to overweight from equal weight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said shares of the software company are now derisked.</p><p>“Growth Expectations for <u>U</u> Now Look Derisked, With Clear Potential Upside Drivers Ahead.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1893750293\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Loop upgrades NetApp to buy from hold</h2><p>Loop said in its upgrade of <u>NetApp</u> that it’s bullish on the data infrastructure company.</p><p>“We’re upgrading to Buy and $150 PT on a stock we’ve been chasing for &gt; 12 months. Last summer we tried to get cute and wait an additional 90 days to about this same time, the stock began to run on us and we’ve been out of position ever since.”</p><h2 id=\"id_590762866\" style=\"text-align: start;\">B. Riley upgrades Redfin to buy from neutral</h2><p>B. Riley said fundamentals are improving for the real estate company.</p><p>“We’re upgrading <u>Redfin</u> Corporation from Neutral to Buy to reflect improving business fundamentals, including a) structural improvements in the core brokerage business with the introduction of Next, which position the business favorably for growth and profitability as real estate cycle turns, b) likelihood of a more favorable macro backdrop as interest rates are lowered over the next several months...”</p><h2 id=\"id_4055681648\" style=\"text-align: start;\">HSBC upgrades AutoDesk to buy from hold</h2><p>HSBC upgraded the software company following earnings.</p><p>“<u>Autodesk’s</u> 2QFY25 profit was well above forecasts.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3813360226\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein reiterates Apple as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said it’s bullish heading into the company’s iPhone event next week.</p><p>“On September 9th, <u>Apple</u> is expected to unveil its next generation iPhone 16, updated Apple watches and Airpods, and make further announcements regarding Apple Intelligence.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2288649012\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Melius upgrades Lockheed Martin to buy from hold</h2><p>The firm said the defense company is well positioned.</p><p>“<u>Lockheed Martin</u> has the most international exposure relative to its large cap defense hardware peers, meaning that it is well-positioned for Europe’s defense recapitalization.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2540797432\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein reiterates Ferrari as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said the luxury car company is well positioned.</p><p>“We are raising our TP on <u>Ferrari</u> from $488 to $599 and reiterate our Outperform rating.”</p><h2 id=\"id_370960116\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Nvidia &amp; Broadcom as overweight</h2><p>The firm said both semis stocks are top picks throughout the rest of 2024.</p><p>“Our Top Picks heading into year-end are now <u>NVDA,</u> <u>AVGO,</u> MU, WDC, NXPI, ASML, and TER.”</p><h2 id=\"id_970043580\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs adds IBM and Conagra to the conviction list</h2><p>The firm added both stocks to its conviction buy list.</p><p>“We add <u>Conagra</u> (CAG), <u>International Business Machines</u> (IBM), and Insmed (INSM) to the Americas Conviction List, while removing Ally Financial (ALLY), Dollar General (DG), Installed Building Products (IBP), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).”</p><h2 id=\"id_3158824230\" style=\"text-align: start;\">JPMorgan reiterates Amazon, Meta and Uber as best ideas</h2><p>The firm said it’s sticking with all three stocks as top picks.</p><p>“We continue to prefer large- cap companies w/strong secular growth potential &amp; company specific drivers (<u>AMZN,</u> <u>META,</u> <u>UBER</u>), along w/subscription names that we believe are more macro resilient (NFLX, SPOT).”</p><h2 id=\"id_1838488575\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies downgrades Novartis to hold from buy</h2><p>Jefferies said in its downgrade of <u>Novartis</u> that the pharma company’s pipeline launches will take longer to come to fruition.</p><p>“Sales of key launches need to demonstrate a robust ramp-up to drive confidence in potential for longer-term upgrades.”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Calls on Wall Street: Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, Boeing, Bank of America, IBM, Meta, Uber & More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Calls on Wall Street: Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, Boeing, Bank of America, IBM, Meta, Uber & More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-03 22:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:</p><h2 id=\"id_1042980453\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Wells Fargo downgrades Boeing to underweight from equal weight</h2><p>Wells said in its downgrade of the aerospace giant that it’s a “cash opportunity missed.”</p><p>“We think <u>BA</u> had a generational FCF opportunity this decade, driven by ramping production on mature aircraft and low investment need. But after extensive delays and added cost, we now see growing production cash flow running into a new aircraft investment cycle, capping FCF a few years out.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1448037628\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Deutsche Bank upgrades Bank of America and Wells Fargo to buy from hold and downgrades JPMorgan to hold form buy</h2><p>The firm said it’s getting bullish on several banks on Tuesday. Deutsche also downgraded JPMorgan citing “less upside.”</p><p>“While we continue to view the overall bank group as somewhat in no man’s land, we see some shifting in opportunities within our coverage. As part of this, we are downgrading <u>JPM</u> from BUY to HOLD and upgrading both <u>BAC</u> and <u>WFC</u> from HOLD to BUY.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1294014026\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Evercore ISI upgrades Southwest to outperform from in line</h2><p>Evercore said it sees several positive catalysts ahead for the airline.</p><p>“Our rating on <u>LUV</u> shares is raised to Outperform from In Line given the long-awaited transition to capacity discipline (culling least productive flying), new revenue initiatives to be outlined at upcoming Sept. 26 investor day (assigned seating, premium economy) and strong underlying fleet value.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2685769590\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Piper Sandler downgrades Simon Property to neutral from overweight</h2><p>Piper said it’s worried about slowing earnings growth for the real estate investment trust mall operator.</p><p>“Our rating change is based on anticipated slower earnings growth for <u>SPG</u> versus shopping centers over the next 2 years and represents the first time we haven’t had an OW rating since late 2009.”</p><h2 id=\"id_14844766\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley upgrades Unity Software to overweight from equal weight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said shares of the software company are now derisked.</p><p>“Growth Expectations for <u>U</u> Now Look Derisked, With Clear Potential Upside Drivers Ahead.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1893750293\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Loop upgrades NetApp to buy from hold</h2><p>Loop said in its upgrade of <u>NetApp</u> that it’s bullish on the data infrastructure company.</p><p>“We’re upgrading to Buy and $150 PT on a stock we’ve been chasing for &gt; 12 months. Last summer we tried to get cute and wait an additional 90 days to about this same time, the stock began to run on us and we’ve been out of position ever since.”</p><h2 id=\"id_590762866\" style=\"text-align: start;\">B. Riley upgrades Redfin to buy from neutral</h2><p>B. Riley said fundamentals are improving for the real estate company.</p><p>“We’re upgrading <u>Redfin</u> Corporation from Neutral to Buy to reflect improving business fundamentals, including a) structural improvements in the core brokerage business with the introduction of Next, which position the business favorably for growth and profitability as real estate cycle turns, b) likelihood of a more favorable macro backdrop as interest rates are lowered over the next several months...”</p><h2 id=\"id_4055681648\" style=\"text-align: start;\">HSBC upgrades AutoDesk to buy from hold</h2><p>HSBC upgraded the software company following earnings.</p><p>“<u>Autodesk’s</u> 2QFY25 profit was well above forecasts.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3813360226\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein reiterates Apple as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said it’s bullish heading into the company’s iPhone event next week.</p><p>“On September 9th, <u>Apple</u> is expected to unveil its next generation iPhone 16, updated Apple watches and Airpods, and make further announcements regarding Apple Intelligence.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2288649012\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Melius upgrades Lockheed Martin to buy from hold</h2><p>The firm said the defense company is well positioned.</p><p>“<u>Lockheed Martin</u> has the most international exposure relative to its large cap defense hardware peers, meaning that it is well-positioned for Europe’s defense recapitalization.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2540797432\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein reiterates Ferrari as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said the luxury car company is well positioned.</p><p>“We are raising our TP on <u>Ferrari</u> from $488 to $599 and reiterate our Outperform rating.”</p><h2 id=\"id_370960116\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Nvidia &amp; Broadcom as overweight</h2><p>The firm said both semis stocks are top picks throughout the rest of 2024.</p><p>“Our Top Picks heading into year-end are now <u>NVDA,</u> <u>AVGO,</u> MU, WDC, NXPI, ASML, and TER.”</p><h2 id=\"id_970043580\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs adds IBM and Conagra to the conviction list</h2><p>The firm added both stocks to its conviction buy list.</p><p>“We add <u>Conagra</u> (CAG), <u>International Business Machines</u> (IBM), and Insmed (INSM) to the Americas Conviction List, while removing Ally Financial (ALLY), Dollar General (DG), Installed Building Products (IBP), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).”</p><h2 id=\"id_3158824230\" style=\"text-align: start;\">JPMorgan reiterates Amazon, Meta and Uber as best ideas</h2><p>The firm said it’s sticking with all three stocks as top picks.</p><p>“We continue to prefer large- cap companies w/strong secular growth potential &amp; company specific drivers (<u>AMZN,</u> <u>META,</u> <u>UBER</u>), along w/subscription names that we believe are more macro resilient (NFLX, SPOT).”</p><h2 id=\"id_1838488575\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies downgrades Novartis to hold from buy</h2><p>Jefferies said in its downgrade of <u>Novartis</u> that the pharma company’s pipeline launches will take longer to come to fruition.</p><p>“Sales of key launches need to demonstrate a robust ramp-up to drive confidence in potential for longer-term upgrades.”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AVGO":"博通","UBER":"优步","BAC":"美国银行","BK4020":"通信设备","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","AMZN":"亚马逊","RDFN":"Redfin Corp","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","SPG":"西蒙地产","BK4230":"旅客陆运","WFC":"富国银行","NTAP":"美国网存","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","AAPL":"苹果","BK4539":"次新股","BA":"波音","U":"Unity Software Inc.","LUV":"西南航空","NVS":"诺华","ADSK":"欧特克","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IBM":"IBM","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","RACE":"法拉利","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LMT":"洛克希德马丁"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135102427","content_text":"Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:Wells Fargo downgrades Boeing to underweight from equal weightWells said in its downgrade of the aerospace giant that it’s a “cash opportunity missed.”“We think BA had a generational FCF opportunity this decade, driven by ramping production on mature aircraft and low investment need. But after extensive delays and added cost, we now see growing production cash flow running into a new aircraft investment cycle, capping FCF a few years out.”Deutsche Bank upgrades Bank of America and Wells Fargo to buy from hold and downgrades JPMorgan to hold form buyThe firm said it’s getting bullish on several banks on Tuesday. Deutsche also downgraded JPMorgan citing “less upside.”“While we continue to view the overall bank group as somewhat in no man’s land, we see some shifting in opportunities within our coverage. As part of this, we are downgrading JPM from BUY to HOLD and upgrading both BAC and WFC from HOLD to BUY.”Evercore ISI upgrades Southwest to outperform from in lineEvercore said it sees several positive catalysts ahead for the airline.“Our rating on LUV shares is raised to Outperform from In Line given the long-awaited transition to capacity discipline (culling least productive flying), new revenue initiatives to be outlined at upcoming Sept. 26 investor day (assigned seating, premium economy) and strong underlying fleet value.”Piper Sandler downgrades Simon Property to neutral from overweightPiper said it’s worried about slowing earnings growth for the real estate investment trust mall operator.“Our rating change is based on anticipated slower earnings growth for SPG versus shopping centers over the next 2 years and represents the first time we haven’t had an OW rating since late 2009.”Morgan Stanley upgrades Unity Software to overweight from equal weightMorgan Stanley said shares of the software company are now derisked.“Growth Expectations for U Now Look Derisked, With Clear Potential Upside Drivers Ahead.”Loop upgrades NetApp to buy from holdLoop said in its upgrade of NetApp that it’s bullish on the data infrastructure company.“We’re upgrading to Buy and $150 PT on a stock we’ve been chasing for > 12 months. Last summer we tried to get cute and wait an additional 90 days to about this same time, the stock began to run on us and we’ve been out of position ever since.”B. Riley upgrades Redfin to buy from neutralB. Riley said fundamentals are improving for the real estate company.“We’re upgrading Redfin Corporation from Neutral to Buy to reflect improving business fundamentals, including a) structural improvements in the core brokerage business with the introduction of Next, which position the business favorably for growth and profitability as real estate cycle turns, b) likelihood of a more favorable macro backdrop as interest rates are lowered over the next several months...”HSBC upgrades AutoDesk to buy from holdHSBC upgraded the software company following earnings.“Autodesk’s 2QFY25 profit was well above forecasts.”Bernstein reiterates Apple as outperformBernstein said it’s bullish heading into the company’s iPhone event next week.“On September 9th, Apple is expected to unveil its next generation iPhone 16, updated Apple watches and Airpods, and make further announcements regarding Apple Intelligence.”Melius upgrades Lockheed Martin to buy from holdThe firm said the defense company is well positioned.“Lockheed Martin has the most international exposure relative to its large cap defense hardware peers, meaning that it is well-positioned for Europe’s defense recapitalization.”Bernstein reiterates Ferrari as outperformBernstein said the luxury car company is well positioned.“We are raising our TP on Ferrari from $488 to $599 and reiterate our Outperform rating.”Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Nvidia & Broadcom as overweightThe firm said both semis stocks are top picks throughout the rest of 2024.“Our Top Picks heading into year-end are now NVDA, AVGO, MU, WDC, NXPI, ASML, and TER.”Goldman Sachs adds IBM and Conagra to the conviction listThe firm added both stocks to its conviction buy list.“We add Conagra (CAG), International Business Machines (IBM), and Insmed (INSM) to the Americas Conviction List, while removing Ally Financial (ALLY), Dollar General (DG), Installed Building Products (IBP), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).”JPMorgan reiterates Amazon, Meta and Uber as best ideasThe firm said it’s sticking with all three stocks as top picks.“We continue to prefer large- cap companies w/strong secular growth potential & company specific drivers (AMZN, META, UBER), along w/subscription names that we believe are more macro resilient (NFLX, SPOT).”Jefferies downgrades Novartis to hold from buyJefferies said in its downgrade of Novartis that the pharma company’s pipeline launches will take longer to come to fruition.“Sales of key launches need to demonstrate a robust ramp-up to drive confidence in potential for longer-term upgrades.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341258834075952,"gmtCreate":1724355733400,"gmtModify":1724355736971,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341258834075952","repostId":"2461381090","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461381090","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1724292297,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2461381090?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-22 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Make-or-Break Moment That Will Determine the Economy's Fate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461381090","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"There's a saying that economic expansions don't die of old age: They're murdered by the Federal Reserve.Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spent the past two years determined to beat inflation even if it resulted in recession. Now he's on the brink of winning the battle without bringing down the economy, but the next few months will be crucial.If he succeeds and maneuvers the economy to a soft landing that brings inflation down without a big rise in unemployment, it'll be a historic achievement worthy of the central banking Hall of Fame. If he fails, the economy will slide into recession anyway under the weight of higher interest rates -- and he'll have proved the old maxim about the Fed.For Powell, the last phase of the Fed's inflation fight marks a make-or-break moment. How he plans his approach will loom over the central bank's annual conference in Wyoming's Grand Teton National Park this week, including during a widely anticipated speech on Friday.Powell is navigating against the backdrop","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>There&#39;s a saying that economic expansions don&#39;t die of old age: They&#39;re murdered by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spent the past two years determined to beat inflation even if it resulted in recession. Now he&#39;s on the brink of winning the battle without bringing down the economy, but the next few months will be crucial.</p><p>If he succeeds and maneuvers the economy to a soft landing that brings inflation down without a big rise in unemployment, it&#39;ll be a historic achievement worthy of the central banking Hall of Fame. If he fails, the economy will slide into recession anyway under the weight of higher interest rates -- and he&#39;ll have proved the old maxim about the Fed.</p><p>Powell and his colleagues have signaled in recent weeks that they&#39;re ready to start cutting rates when they next meet in September, with price pressures now easing but the jobs market cooling. That&#39;s put attention on how fast officials should bring down rates from a two-decade high.</p><p>For Powell, the last phase of the Fed&#39;s inflation fight marks a make-or-break moment. How he plans his approach will loom over the central bank&#39;s annual conference in Wyoming&#39;s Grand Teton National Park this week, including during a widely anticipated speech on Friday.</p><p>When Powell spoke there two years ago amid doubts over the Fed&#39;s conviction to bring down inflation, he delivered a somber promise. He signaled his readiness to accept a recession as the price of curing high inflation by invoking the example of former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, the Fed famously ratcheted rates to very high levels and put the economy through a wrenching downturn that ultimately tamed high prices.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b36a2f1029bc40f9fd8e9c27c081aa7f\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>The Fed under Powell also raised rates rapidly, in 2022 and 2023. Still, Powell has held on to the possibility that the Fed might be able to avoid a recession this time around because the inflation of 2021-23 was different from the 1970s episode.</p><p>For Fed officials, sticking a soft landing would offer the ultimate redemption. Three years ago, they had incorrectly predicted inflation would be short lived. Success would illustrate that the costs of being slow to end aggressive stimulus policies in 2021 weren&#39;t as disastrous as many critics warned.</p><p>&#34;It would be the finest moment in their history,&#34; said Dario Perkins, an economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. &#34;They could say, &#39;We not only prevented this 1970s runaway-inflation scenario, but we&#39;ve managed to do it with no meaningful cost to the economy -- this perfect soft landing.&#39;&#34;</p><p>In doing so, Powell has the chance to emulate two of his heroes. A successful outcome would marry the fortitude of Volcker with the deftness of Alan Greenspan, who as Fed chair in the late 1990s resisted calls to slow the economy amid a boom that yielded little inflation.</p><p><strong>&#39;Bad karma&#39;</strong></p><p>Powell is navigating against the backdrop of a divisive election campaign, and the Fed&#39;s decisions could shape the economy the next president inherits.</p><p>Democrats including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have criticized Powell for not having cut rates sooner. They make no secret they&#39;ll blame any economic downturn on Powell.</p><p>Donald Trump, who appointed Powell as chair in 2018, says he wants a greater say in interest-rate policy if he recaptures the presidency this fall. A recession could embolden the GOP nominee in his quest to mold the institution to his liking.</p><p>Much could still go wrong, something Powell knows well. Slamming into or skidding off the runway is something the mild-mannered Fed chair has said keeps him up at night. Powell, 71, refrains from using the &#34;soft landing&#34; term, according to people who have worked or spoken with him, to avoid sounding like he has counted his chickens before they hatch. Instead, he&#39;ll refer to it obliquely as &#34;the good outcome&#34; or &#34;that thing we all want.&#34;</p><p>He&#39;s not alone. &#34;I try not to use the phrase. It&#39;s bad karma,&#34; said Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, in an interview last week.</p><p>The Fed chief -- who after college traveled through Europe with his guitar, serenading patrons at a Paris cafe with Hank Williams ballads including &#34;I&#39;m So Lonesome I Could Cry&#34; -- said recently he and his wife have stopped dining at restaurants. &#34;People at the next table are always listening,&#34; he told a lunchtime audience of a few hundred businesspeople in Washington last month.</p><p><strong>The economic script has flipped</strong></p><p>Worries about the labor market have raised questions about how quickly to cut rates.</p><p>Inflation has fallen to around 2.5% from above 7% two years ago, not far from the Fed&#39;s 2% target. But the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in July from 3.7% at the beginning of the year. While that&#39;s a historically low level, it won&#39;t necessarily stay there. Usually when the unemployment rate starts rising a little bit, it subsequently rises by a lot. That line of thinking argues for lowering rates with reasonable speed.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5febaa9ad5594c333838f37335ce4bf1\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"653\"/></p><p>Yet some officials are nervous that rate cuts will stoke new price pressures that jeopardize their hard-won gains.</p><p>The U.S. economy has defied rolling predictions of imminent recession, powering through higher rates over the last two years. Now evidence is gathering that unique buffers that shielded the economy so far, including pandemic-era savings cushions and an immigration surge that boosted spending, could be fading along several fronts.</p><p>Low- and middle-income consumers&#39; budgets are showing strains. More companies say they&#39;re focusing again on keeping costs down to attract deal-conscious shoppers.</p><p>The U.S. housing sector, which avoided a downturn that usually occurs when interest rates rise sharply, faces a bleak outlook. Today&#39;s pool of would-be buyers have weaker income and wealth profiles than those who stepped up to buy homes when mortgage rates first soared above 6% two years ago.</p><p>Many homeowners have held their homes off the market, which initially limited competition for home builders. That&#39;s ending now as inventories are rising. Meanwhile, an apartment building boom that kept construction workers on job sites is over. The number of housing units under construction has fallen nearly 10% over the past year, the largest such decline since 2011.</p><p>In the labor market, companies have slowed hiring. For now, layoffs are low. But what looks like a controlled demolition of labor demand risks moving past a tipping point. The Labor Department said Wednesday that payroll growth for the 12 months ending in March could be revised down to 2.1 million jobs from an initially reported figure of nearly three million jobs, meaning job gains for most of 2023 and the first three months of this year were milder.</p><p>&#34;If job openings fall a lot more, people who lose their jobs are not going to be able to walk across the street and find work,&#34; said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.</p><p><strong>Sticking the landing</strong></p><p>Many downturns look like soft landings at first, but since World War II, the U.S. has convincingly achieved only one, in 1995. Back then, Greenspan attempted to pre-empt inflationary pressures by raising rates rapidly, from 3% to 6%. He then reversed course and over six months cut rates to 5.25%.</p><p>Whether Powell manages the feat depends not only on whether the economy is weakening under the surface faster but also whether lower rates can spur new borrowing and spending to counteract any softness.</p><p>Investors are optimistic because the Fed has plenty of room to cut. Still, some borrowers could face a squeeze from the lagged effects of the Fed&#39;s past hikes even after the central bank reduces borrowing costs.</p><p>That&#39;s because borrowers enjoyed more than a decade of historically very low borrowing costs before the Fed started raising rates, and many firms and households still have low fixed-rate debt. If that debt matures in the next year, they could face a sizable increase in borrowing costs even if the Fed cuts rates by a full percentage point.</p><p>A soft landing seems tantalizingly close because the economy so far has hewed closer to an optimistic scenario Fed officials outlined two years ago.</p><p>When officials began lifting rates from near zero in 2022, prominent economists said a period of higher unemployment was almost required to create enough slack -- such as unemployed workers and idled factories -- to lower prices. They argued inflation was being driven by overheated labor markets.</p><p>Fed leaders said another path was possible because inflation had been driven not by the labor market but by the collision between strong demand and discombobulated supply chains. They suggested the labor market was so out of whack after the pandemic, as reopening businesses scrambled to hire workers, that cooling demand might lead firms to simply scrap unfilled openings rather than fire workers.</p><p>Good luck has played a part in that outcome. Supply chains healed last year. The economy avoided new shocks, such as a sharp rise in oil prices or a financial-market blowup. And a surge in immigration boosted output while alleviating worker shortages. &#34;We know more now about where this [inflation] came from because we can see what made it go away,&#34; Powell told lawmakers last month.</p><p>Earlier this year, as economists puzzled over why interest rates hadn&#39;t done more to slow the economy, Powell suggested that the immigration surge might have masked the effects of tight interest-rate policy. His underlying concern was that the effects of restrictive policy would reveal themselves gradually and then suddenly.</p><p><strong>&#39;What&#39;s the rush?&#39; vs. &#39;Why are we waiting?&#39;</strong></p><p>Inside the Fed, the economic uncertainty threatens to end a period of unanimity that is remarkable even for a committee that prizes consensus. No Fed officials have dissented at a policy meeting since June 2022, matching a streak last seen between 2003 and 2005.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b3556625057d6f2222b1979c0a34f0d\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p>One camp that includes Fed governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid worries cutting rates too soon will reignite inflation or allow it to settle out closer to 3%—well above their target. With the unemployment rate at a historically low level, this group has argued, “What’s the rush?”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This group has also reacted skeptically to pessimism about the labor market. They point to how the recent uptick in the unemployment rate has been driven by temporary and not permanent layoffs along with an increase in the number of people entering the job market. They think interest rates are only moderately restrictive, meaning the Fed may not need to cut rates very much.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Another camp is more anxious about growing too complacent about the slowdown in labor demand. Inflation-adjusted interest rates are at their highest level in decades, and these officials are asking, “Why are we waiting?”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“In regular business cycles, unemployment goes up like a rocket but comes down like a feather,” said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview. While the current cycle might be unusual, “it’s at least a note of caution that the job market has been cooling. It needs to stop cooling.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Many are ready to start cutting rates by a traditional quarter-percentage-point next month but aren’t sure how fast they should go thereafter. At issue is the question over how far rates currently sit above a “neutral” setting that neither spurs nor slows activity.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the September meeting, Fed officials will have to fill out their projections for interest rates for the next three years. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is dreading it because he’s so uncertain “about how tight policy is right now,” he said in an interview.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Barkin said he and his Richmond Fed staff canvass hundreds of businesses to see if demand is weakening and whether they are preparing to lay off workers as a result. He isn’t seeing it outside of a few narrow sectors. “You can make mistakes by moving too aggressively or not aggressively enough,” he said.</p><p>Broadly speaking, the Fed faces two paths for the coming months. Under one, officials could cut rates by a quarter-point at each of their next few meetings and then dial up or down the size and speed of reductions depending on how the economy fares early next year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the economy enters a sharper slowdown, they could cut rates in larger half-point increments to get interest rates closer to 3% by next spring. (The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently set between 5.25% and 5.5%.)</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Powell is likely to keep his options open when he speaks this week. Labor market data for August, to be released early next month, could tip the scales in favor of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July’s readings.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The reason you move gradually as a central banker is it gives you optionality,” said Goolsbee. “The downside of gradualism is that when things move, you don’t have that luxury anymore.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A handful of private-sector and former Fed economists, including at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, say evidence that the labor market might be weakening too much should lead officials to make larger rate cuts upfront, shedding their longstanding preference for gradualism.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“They’ve got a lot of wood to chop, and they need to get going. But it’s a very consensus-driven place, and they don’t have the consensus yet to do that,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. That looks unlikely to happen on this committee without “a shock or a run of weak data that suddenly shifts the consensus to where they move faster.”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Make-or-Break Moment That Will Determine the Economy's Fate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Make-or-Break Moment That Will Determine the Economy's Fate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-22 10:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>There&#39;s a saying that economic expansions don&#39;t die of old age: They&#39;re murdered by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spent the past two years determined to beat inflation even if it resulted in recession. Now he&#39;s on the brink of winning the battle without bringing down the economy, but the next few months will be crucial.</p><p>If he succeeds and maneuvers the economy to a soft landing that brings inflation down without a big rise in unemployment, it&#39;ll be a historic achievement worthy of the central banking Hall of Fame. If he fails, the economy will slide into recession anyway under the weight of higher interest rates -- and he&#39;ll have proved the old maxim about the Fed.</p><p>Powell and his colleagues have signaled in recent weeks that they&#39;re ready to start cutting rates when they next meet in September, with price pressures now easing but the jobs market cooling. That&#39;s put attention on how fast officials should bring down rates from a two-decade high.</p><p>For Powell, the last phase of the Fed&#39;s inflation fight marks a make-or-break moment. How he plans his approach will loom over the central bank&#39;s annual conference in Wyoming&#39;s Grand Teton National Park this week, including during a widely anticipated speech on Friday.</p><p>When Powell spoke there two years ago amid doubts over the Fed&#39;s conviction to bring down inflation, he delivered a somber promise. He signaled his readiness to accept a recession as the price of curing high inflation by invoking the example of former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, the Fed famously ratcheted rates to very high levels and put the economy through a wrenching downturn that ultimately tamed high prices.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b36a2f1029bc40f9fd8e9c27c081aa7f\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>The Fed under Powell also raised rates rapidly, in 2022 and 2023. Still, Powell has held on to the possibility that the Fed might be able to avoid a recession this time around because the inflation of 2021-23 was different from the 1970s episode.</p><p>For Fed officials, sticking a soft landing would offer the ultimate redemption. Three years ago, they had incorrectly predicted inflation would be short lived. Success would illustrate that the costs of being slow to end aggressive stimulus policies in 2021 weren&#39;t as disastrous as many critics warned.</p><p>&#34;It would be the finest moment in their history,&#34; said Dario Perkins, an economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. &#34;They could say, &#39;We not only prevented this 1970s runaway-inflation scenario, but we&#39;ve managed to do it with no meaningful cost to the economy -- this perfect soft landing.&#39;&#34;</p><p>In doing so, Powell has the chance to emulate two of his heroes. A successful outcome would marry the fortitude of Volcker with the deftness of Alan Greenspan, who as Fed chair in the late 1990s resisted calls to slow the economy amid a boom that yielded little inflation.</p><p><strong>&#39;Bad karma&#39;</strong></p><p>Powell is navigating against the backdrop of a divisive election campaign, and the Fed&#39;s decisions could shape the economy the next president inherits.</p><p>Democrats including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have criticized Powell for not having cut rates sooner. They make no secret they&#39;ll blame any economic downturn on Powell.</p><p>Donald Trump, who appointed Powell as chair in 2018, says he wants a greater say in interest-rate policy if he recaptures the presidency this fall. A recession could embolden the GOP nominee in his quest to mold the institution to his liking.</p><p>Much could still go wrong, something Powell knows well. Slamming into or skidding off the runway is something the mild-mannered Fed chair has said keeps him up at night. Powell, 71, refrains from using the &#34;soft landing&#34; term, according to people who have worked or spoken with him, to avoid sounding like he has counted his chickens before they hatch. Instead, he&#39;ll refer to it obliquely as &#34;the good outcome&#34; or &#34;that thing we all want.&#34;</p><p>He&#39;s not alone. &#34;I try not to use the phrase. It&#39;s bad karma,&#34; said Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, in an interview last week.</p><p>The Fed chief -- who after college traveled through Europe with his guitar, serenading patrons at a Paris cafe with Hank Williams ballads including &#34;I&#39;m So Lonesome I Could Cry&#34; -- said recently he and his wife have stopped dining at restaurants. &#34;People at the next table are always listening,&#34; he told a lunchtime audience of a few hundred businesspeople in Washington last month.</p><p><strong>The economic script has flipped</strong></p><p>Worries about the labor market have raised questions about how quickly to cut rates.</p><p>Inflation has fallen to around 2.5% from above 7% two years ago, not far from the Fed&#39;s 2% target. But the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in July from 3.7% at the beginning of the year. While that&#39;s a historically low level, it won&#39;t necessarily stay there. Usually when the unemployment rate starts rising a little bit, it subsequently rises by a lot. That line of thinking argues for lowering rates with reasonable speed.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5febaa9ad5594c333838f37335ce4bf1\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"653\"/></p><p>Yet some officials are nervous that rate cuts will stoke new price pressures that jeopardize their hard-won gains.</p><p>The U.S. economy has defied rolling predictions of imminent recession, powering through higher rates over the last two years. Now evidence is gathering that unique buffers that shielded the economy so far, including pandemic-era savings cushions and an immigration surge that boosted spending, could be fading along several fronts.</p><p>Low- and middle-income consumers&#39; budgets are showing strains. More companies say they&#39;re focusing again on keeping costs down to attract deal-conscious shoppers.</p><p>The U.S. housing sector, which avoided a downturn that usually occurs when interest rates rise sharply, faces a bleak outlook. Today&#39;s pool of would-be buyers have weaker income and wealth profiles than those who stepped up to buy homes when mortgage rates first soared above 6% two years ago.</p><p>Many homeowners have held their homes off the market, which initially limited competition for home builders. That&#39;s ending now as inventories are rising. Meanwhile, an apartment building boom that kept construction workers on job sites is over. The number of housing units under construction has fallen nearly 10% over the past year, the largest such decline since 2011.</p><p>In the labor market, companies have slowed hiring. For now, layoffs are low. But what looks like a controlled demolition of labor demand risks moving past a tipping point. The Labor Department said Wednesday that payroll growth for the 12 months ending in March could be revised down to 2.1 million jobs from an initially reported figure of nearly three million jobs, meaning job gains for most of 2023 and the first three months of this year were milder.</p><p>&#34;If job openings fall a lot more, people who lose their jobs are not going to be able to walk across the street and find work,&#34; said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.</p><p><strong>Sticking the landing</strong></p><p>Many downturns look like soft landings at first, but since World War II, the U.S. has convincingly achieved only one, in 1995. Back then, Greenspan attempted to pre-empt inflationary pressures by raising rates rapidly, from 3% to 6%. He then reversed course and over six months cut rates to 5.25%.</p><p>Whether Powell manages the feat depends not only on whether the economy is weakening under the surface faster but also whether lower rates can spur new borrowing and spending to counteract any softness.</p><p>Investors are optimistic because the Fed has plenty of room to cut. Still, some borrowers could face a squeeze from the lagged effects of the Fed&#39;s past hikes even after the central bank reduces borrowing costs.</p><p>That&#39;s because borrowers enjoyed more than a decade of historically very low borrowing costs before the Fed started raising rates, and many firms and households still have low fixed-rate debt. If that debt matures in the next year, they could face a sizable increase in borrowing costs even if the Fed cuts rates by a full percentage point.</p><p>A soft landing seems tantalizingly close because the economy so far has hewed closer to an optimistic scenario Fed officials outlined two years ago.</p><p>When officials began lifting rates from near zero in 2022, prominent economists said a period of higher unemployment was almost required to create enough slack -- such as unemployed workers and idled factories -- to lower prices. They argued inflation was being driven by overheated labor markets.</p><p>Fed leaders said another path was possible because inflation had been driven not by the labor market but by the collision between strong demand and discombobulated supply chains. They suggested the labor market was so out of whack after the pandemic, as reopening businesses scrambled to hire workers, that cooling demand might lead firms to simply scrap unfilled openings rather than fire workers.</p><p>Good luck has played a part in that outcome. Supply chains healed last year. The economy avoided new shocks, such as a sharp rise in oil prices or a financial-market blowup. And a surge in immigration boosted output while alleviating worker shortages. &#34;We know more now about where this [inflation] came from because we can see what made it go away,&#34; Powell told lawmakers last month.</p><p>Earlier this year, as economists puzzled over why interest rates hadn&#39;t done more to slow the economy, Powell suggested that the immigration surge might have masked the effects of tight interest-rate policy. His underlying concern was that the effects of restrictive policy would reveal themselves gradually and then suddenly.</p><p><strong>&#39;What&#39;s the rush?&#39; vs. &#39;Why are we waiting?&#39;</strong></p><p>Inside the Fed, the economic uncertainty threatens to end a period of unanimity that is remarkable even for a committee that prizes consensus. No Fed officials have dissented at a policy meeting since June 2022, matching a streak last seen between 2003 and 2005.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b3556625057d6f2222b1979c0a34f0d\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p>One camp that includes Fed governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid worries cutting rates too soon will reignite inflation or allow it to settle out closer to 3%—well above their target. With the unemployment rate at a historically low level, this group has argued, “What’s the rush?”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This group has also reacted skeptically to pessimism about the labor market. They point to how the recent uptick in the unemployment rate has been driven by temporary and not permanent layoffs along with an increase in the number of people entering the job market. They think interest rates are only moderately restrictive, meaning the Fed may not need to cut rates very much.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Another camp is more anxious about growing too complacent about the slowdown in labor demand. Inflation-adjusted interest rates are at their highest level in decades, and these officials are asking, “Why are we waiting?”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“In regular business cycles, unemployment goes up like a rocket but comes down like a feather,” said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview. While the current cycle might be unusual, “it’s at least a note of caution that the job market has been cooling. It needs to stop cooling.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Many are ready to start cutting rates by a traditional quarter-percentage-point next month but aren’t sure how fast they should go thereafter. At issue is the question over how far rates currently sit above a “neutral” setting that neither spurs nor slows activity.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the September meeting, Fed officials will have to fill out their projections for interest rates for the next three years. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is dreading it because he’s so uncertain “about how tight policy is right now,” he said in an interview.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Barkin said he and his Richmond Fed staff canvass hundreds of businesses to see if demand is weakening and whether they are preparing to lay off workers as a result. He isn’t seeing it outside of a few narrow sectors. “You can make mistakes by moving too aggressively or not aggressively enough,” he said.</p><p>Broadly speaking, the Fed faces two paths for the coming months. Under one, officials could cut rates by a quarter-point at each of their next few meetings and then dial up or down the size and speed of reductions depending on how the economy fares early next year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the economy enters a sharper slowdown, they could cut rates in larger half-point increments to get interest rates closer to 3% by next spring. (The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently set between 5.25% and 5.5%.)</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Powell is likely to keep his options open when he speaks this week. Labor market data for August, to be released early next month, could tip the scales in favor of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July’s readings.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The reason you move gradually as a central banker is it gives you optionality,” said Goolsbee. “The downside of gradualism is that when things move, you don’t have that luxury anymore.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A handful of private-sector and former Fed economists, including at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, say evidence that the labor market might be weakening too much should lead officials to make larger rate cuts upfront, shedding their longstanding preference for gradualism.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“They’ve got a lot of wood to chop, and they need to get going. But it’s a very consensus-driven place, and they don’t have the consensus yet to do that,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. That looks unlikely to happen on this committee without “a shock or a run of weak data that suddenly shifts the consensus to where they move faster.”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2461381090","content_text":"By Nick TimiraosThere's a saying that economic expansions don't die of old age: They're murdered by the Federal Reserve.Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spent the past two years determined to beat inflation even if it resulted in recession. Now he's on the brink of winning the battle without bringing down the economy, but the next few months will be crucial.If he succeeds and maneuvers the economy to a soft landing that brings inflation down without a big rise in unemployment, it'll be a historic achievement worthy of the central banking Hall of Fame. If he fails, the economy will slide into recession anyway under the weight of higher interest rates -- and he'll have proved the old maxim about the Fed.Powell and his colleagues have signaled in recent weeks that they're ready to start cutting rates when they next meet in September, with price pressures now easing but the jobs market cooling. That's put attention on how fast officials should bring down rates from a two-decade high.For Powell, the last phase of the Fed's inflation fight marks a make-or-break moment. How he plans his approach will loom over the central bank's annual conference in Wyoming's Grand Teton National Park this week, including during a widely anticipated speech on Friday.When Powell spoke there two years ago amid doubts over the Fed's conviction to bring down inflation, he delivered a somber promise. He signaled his readiness to accept a recession as the price of curing high inflation by invoking the example of former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, the Fed famously ratcheted rates to very high levels and put the economy through a wrenching downturn that ultimately tamed high prices.The Fed under Powell also raised rates rapidly, in 2022 and 2023. Still, Powell has held on to the possibility that the Fed might be able to avoid a recession this time around because the inflation of 2021-23 was different from the 1970s episode.For Fed officials, sticking a soft landing would offer the ultimate redemption. Three years ago, they had incorrectly predicted inflation would be short lived. Success would illustrate that the costs of being slow to end aggressive stimulus policies in 2021 weren't as disastrous as many critics warned.\"It would be the finest moment in their history,\" said Dario Perkins, an economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. \"They could say, 'We not only prevented this 1970s runaway-inflation scenario, but we've managed to do it with no meaningful cost to the economy -- this perfect soft landing.'\"In doing so, Powell has the chance to emulate two of his heroes. A successful outcome would marry the fortitude of Volcker with the deftness of Alan Greenspan, who as Fed chair in the late 1990s resisted calls to slow the economy amid a boom that yielded little inflation.'Bad karma'Powell is navigating against the backdrop of a divisive election campaign, and the Fed's decisions could shape the economy the next president inherits.Democrats including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have criticized Powell for not having cut rates sooner. They make no secret they'll blame any economic downturn on Powell.Donald Trump, who appointed Powell as chair in 2018, says he wants a greater say in interest-rate policy if he recaptures the presidency this fall. A recession could embolden the GOP nominee in his quest to mold the institution to his liking.Much could still go wrong, something Powell knows well. Slamming into or skidding off the runway is something the mild-mannered Fed chair has said keeps him up at night. Powell, 71, refrains from using the \"soft landing\" term, according to people who have worked or spoken with him, to avoid sounding like he has counted his chickens before they hatch. Instead, he'll refer to it obliquely as \"the good outcome\" or \"that thing we all want.\"He's not alone. \"I try not to use the phrase. It's bad karma,\" said Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, in an interview last week.The Fed chief -- who after college traveled through Europe with his guitar, serenading patrons at a Paris cafe with Hank Williams ballads including \"I'm So Lonesome I Could Cry\" -- said recently he and his wife have stopped dining at restaurants. \"People at the next table are always listening,\" he told a lunchtime audience of a few hundred businesspeople in Washington last month.The economic script has flippedWorries about the labor market have raised questions about how quickly to cut rates.Inflation has fallen to around 2.5% from above 7% two years ago, not far from the Fed's 2% target. But the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in July from 3.7% at the beginning of the year. While that's a historically low level, it won't necessarily stay there. Usually when the unemployment rate starts rising a little bit, it subsequently rises by a lot. That line of thinking argues for lowering rates with reasonable speed.Yet some officials are nervous that rate cuts will stoke new price pressures that jeopardize their hard-won gains.The U.S. economy has defied rolling predictions of imminent recession, powering through higher rates over the last two years. Now evidence is gathering that unique buffers that shielded the economy so far, including pandemic-era savings cushions and an immigration surge that boosted spending, could be fading along several fronts.Low- and middle-income consumers' budgets are showing strains. More companies say they're focusing again on keeping costs down to attract deal-conscious shoppers.The U.S. housing sector, which avoided a downturn that usually occurs when interest rates rise sharply, faces a bleak outlook. Today's pool of would-be buyers have weaker income and wealth profiles than those who stepped up to buy homes when mortgage rates first soared above 6% two years ago.Many homeowners have held their homes off the market, which initially limited competition for home builders. That's ending now as inventories are rising. Meanwhile, an apartment building boom that kept construction workers on job sites is over. The number of housing units under construction has fallen nearly 10% over the past year, the largest such decline since 2011.In the labor market, companies have slowed hiring. For now, layoffs are low. But what looks like a controlled demolition of labor demand risks moving past a tipping point. The Labor Department said Wednesday that payroll growth for the 12 months ending in March could be revised down to 2.1 million jobs from an initially reported figure of nearly three million jobs, meaning job gains for most of 2023 and the first three months of this year were milder.\"If job openings fall a lot more, people who lose their jobs are not going to be able to walk across the street and find work,\" said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.Sticking the landingMany downturns look like soft landings at first, but since World War II, the U.S. has convincingly achieved only one, in 1995. Back then, Greenspan attempted to pre-empt inflationary pressures by raising rates rapidly, from 3% to 6%. He then reversed course and over six months cut rates to 5.25%.Whether Powell manages the feat depends not only on whether the economy is weakening under the surface faster but also whether lower rates can spur new borrowing and spending to counteract any softness.Investors are optimistic because the Fed has plenty of room to cut. Still, some borrowers could face a squeeze from the lagged effects of the Fed's past hikes even after the central bank reduces borrowing costs.That's because borrowers enjoyed more than a decade of historically very low borrowing costs before the Fed started raising rates, and many firms and households still have low fixed-rate debt. If that debt matures in the next year, they could face a sizable increase in borrowing costs even if the Fed cuts rates by a full percentage point.A soft landing seems tantalizingly close because the economy so far has hewed closer to an optimistic scenario Fed officials outlined two years ago.When officials began lifting rates from near zero in 2022, prominent economists said a period of higher unemployment was almost required to create enough slack -- such as unemployed workers and idled factories -- to lower prices. They argued inflation was being driven by overheated labor markets.Fed leaders said another path was possible because inflation had been driven not by the labor market but by the collision between strong demand and discombobulated supply chains. They suggested the labor market was so out of whack after the pandemic, as reopening businesses scrambled to hire workers, that cooling demand might lead firms to simply scrap unfilled openings rather than fire workers.Good luck has played a part in that outcome. Supply chains healed last year. The economy avoided new shocks, such as a sharp rise in oil prices or a financial-market blowup. And a surge in immigration boosted output while alleviating worker shortages. \"We know more now about where this [inflation] came from because we can see what made it go away,\" Powell told lawmakers last month.Earlier this year, as economists puzzled over why interest rates hadn't done more to slow the economy, Powell suggested that the immigration surge might have masked the effects of tight interest-rate policy. His underlying concern was that the effects of restrictive policy would reveal themselves gradually and then suddenly.'What's the rush?' vs. 'Why are we waiting?'Inside the Fed, the economic uncertainty threatens to end a period of unanimity that is remarkable even for a committee that prizes consensus. No Fed officials have dissented at a policy meeting since June 2022, matching a streak last seen between 2003 and 2005.One camp that includes Fed governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid worries cutting rates too soon will reignite inflation or allow it to settle out closer to 3%—well above their target. With the unemployment rate at a historically low level, this group has argued, “What’s the rush?”This group has also reacted skeptically to pessimism about the labor market. They point to how the recent uptick in the unemployment rate has been driven by temporary and not permanent layoffs along with an increase in the number of people entering the job market. They think interest rates are only moderately restrictive, meaning the Fed may not need to cut rates very much.Another camp is more anxious about growing too complacent about the slowdown in labor demand. Inflation-adjusted interest rates are at their highest level in decades, and these officials are asking, “Why are we waiting?”“In regular business cycles, unemployment goes up like a rocket but comes down like a feather,” said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview. While the current cycle might be unusual, “it’s at least a note of caution that the job market has been cooling. It needs to stop cooling.”Many are ready to start cutting rates by a traditional quarter-percentage-point next month but aren’t sure how fast they should go thereafter. At issue is the question over how far rates currently sit above a “neutral” setting that neither spurs nor slows activity.At the September meeting, Fed officials will have to fill out their projections for interest rates for the next three years. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is dreading it because he’s so uncertain “about how tight policy is right now,” he said in an interview.Barkin said he and his Richmond Fed staff canvass hundreds of businesses to see if demand is weakening and whether they are preparing to lay off workers as a result. He isn’t seeing it outside of a few narrow sectors. “You can make mistakes by moving too aggressively or not aggressively enough,” he said.Broadly speaking, the Fed faces two paths for the coming months. Under one, officials could cut rates by a quarter-point at each of their next few meetings and then dial up or down the size and speed of reductions depending on how the economy fares early next year.If the economy enters a sharper slowdown, they could cut rates in larger half-point increments to get interest rates closer to 3% by next spring. (The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently set between 5.25% and 5.5%.)Powell is likely to keep his options open when he speaks this week. Labor market data for August, to be released early next month, could tip the scales in favor of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July’s readings.“The reason you move gradually as a central banker is it gives you optionality,” said Goolsbee. “The downside of gradualism is that when things move, you don’t have that luxury anymore.”A handful of private-sector and former Fed economists, including at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, say evidence that the labor market might be weakening too much should lead officials to make larger rate cuts upfront, shedding their longstanding preference for gradualism.“They’ve got a lot of wood to chop, and they need to get going. But it’s a very consensus-driven place, and they don’t have the consensus yet to do that,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. That looks unlikely to happen on this committee without “a shock or a run of weak data that suddenly shifts the consensus to where they move faster.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329206390882352,"gmtCreate":1721378272347,"gmtModify":1721379768805,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AUR\">$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AUR\">$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329206390882352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":288902389424368,"gmtCreate":1711557357376,"gmtModify":1711557671353,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/288902389424368","repostId":"288870885515400","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":288870885515400,"gmtCreate":1711549575807,"gmtModify":1711549579597,"author":{"id":"3561088065415396","authorId":"3561088065415396","name":"Henryee18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68e1124a4989ce380d6aa143a07b2620","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561088065415396","authorIdStr":"3561088065415396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RDDT\">$Reddit(RDDT)$</a> Not for ordinary investors. For me the fundamental is not really strong and I will not invest in this \"meme\" stock... Anymore 🥲","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RDDT\">$Reddit(RDDT)$</a> Not for ordinary investors. For me the fundamental is not really strong and I will not invest in this \"meme\" stock... Anymore 🥲","text":"$Reddit(RDDT)$ Not for ordinary investors. For me the fundamental is not really strong and I will not invest in this \"meme\" stock... Anymore 🥲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/288870885515400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":288161748721928,"gmtCreate":1711374663534,"gmtModify":1711378579365,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/288161748721928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":287083388538976,"gmtCreate":1711111409326,"gmtModify":1711115570618,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/287083388538976","repostId":"1148479259","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148479259","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1711118663,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148479259?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-22 22:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Shares Dropped in Morning Trading, With Bit Digital Falling over 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148479259","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto shares dropped in premarket trading.The9, Canaan, MicroStrategy fell over 4%; Marathon Digital, Bit Digital fell about 2%; Coinbase, Riot Blockchains fell over 1%.MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor disclosed in an SEC filing on Thursday after the bell a sale of 5,000 shares of the company worth about $7.3 million.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Crypto shares dropped in morning trading.</p><p>Bit Digital, Canaan fell over 7%; SOS Limited fell over 6%; Coinbase, Riot Blockchains fell over 4%; MicroStrategy, Marathon Digital fell about 3%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c95ad2d03cb780eb146657f070b724a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"451\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p><strong>MicroStrategy</strong> CEO Michael Saylor disclosed in an SEC filing on Thursday after the bell a sale of 5,000 shares of the company worth about $7.3 million.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Shares Dropped in Morning Trading, With Bit Digital Falling over 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Shares Dropped in Morning Trading, With Bit Digital Falling over 7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-22 22:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Crypto shares dropped in morning trading.</p><p>Bit Digital, Canaan fell over 7%; SOS Limited fell over 6%; Coinbase, Riot Blockchains fell over 4%; MicroStrategy, Marathon Digital fell about 3%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c95ad2d03cb780eb146657f070b724a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"451\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p><strong>MicroStrategy</strong> CEO Michael Saylor disclosed in an SEC filing on Thursday after the bell a sale of 5,000 shares of the company worth about $7.3 million.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAN":"嘉楠科技","MSTR":"MicroStrategy Incorporated","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","NCTY":"第九城市","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148479259","content_text":"Crypto shares dropped in morning trading.Bit Digital, Canaan fell over 7%; SOS Limited fell over 6%; Coinbase, Riot Blockchains fell over 4%; MicroStrategy, Marathon Digital fell about 3%.MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor disclosed in an SEC filing on Thursday after the bell a sale of 5,000 shares of the company worth about $7.3 million.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":356206499090848,"gmtCreate":1727967887237,"gmtModify":1727967890931,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356206499090848","repostId":"1136164227","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136164227","pubTimestamp":1727967753,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136164227?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-03 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Rises After BofA Keeps Buy Rating Ahead of AI Event Spurring Investor Debate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136164227","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices' stock rose about 3% on Thursday after BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating ahead of the company's AI event on Oct. 10.Analysts led by Vivek Arya said their top AI picks re","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Advanced Micro Devices&#39; stock rose about 3% on Thursday after BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating ahead of the company&#39;s AI event on Oct. 10.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Analysts led by Vivek Arya said their top AI picks remain Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). However, they noted that AMD&#39;s rating was maintained because the company is uniquely positioned for — CPU Share gains: AMD can capitalize in PC/server and CPU share market by taking share from Intel (INTC), which remains in turmoil with frequent restructuring.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The second is, AI growth: Ride the expanding AI market (2027 AI accelerator total addressable market, or TAM, at over $400B, according to AMD) where the leader Nvidia continues to expand the addressable market that is always looking for alternative merchant and application-specific integrated circuit, or ASIC, suppliers, according to the analysts.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Last year AMD&#39;s event, known as Advancing AI, was held on Dec. 6 and produced 19%/80% stock returns 1/3 months later (compared to Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) up 10%/37%), as AMD unveiled a massive $400B 2027 TAM in AI accelerators, the analysts added.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Similarly, roadmap updates in AI (MI-325/250/400) and server CPU (Zen-5 based Turin, versus Intel Granite Rapids) with supporting cloud customer comments could reinvigorate AMD stock, which is up about 9% year-to-date, well below SOX which has risen around 22%, as per the analysts.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, the competitive landscape is getting crowded, while expectations are already high with investors expecting AMD to boost 2024 AI sales by another 10% to over $5B, while showing a path to doubling it year-over-year to $10B in 2025, BofA noted.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Arya and his team added that current consensus of $5.1B/$9.7B/$12.8B for &#39;24/25/26 AI sales implies that AMD&#39;s accelerator market share likely remains around 5% to 7%, well below its 20%+ share in consumer CPU and gaming GPU.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The analysts said that AMD is off to a remarkable start but it could be tougher to carve a bigger niche between Nvidia&#39;s over 80% to 85% share, cloud incumbency, over 15-years software/developer lead on one extreme, and the nearly 10% market share presence of cost-optimized custom ASICs from Broadcom /Marvell Technology (MRVL) on the other extreme.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, if, AMD is able to show a path to 10% AI share by 2026, it would conceptually add around $5B (on top of $12.6B) in sales, with scenario EPS of around $8-$9 (vs. consensus at $7.37).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a Hold rating at Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant Rating system, which consistently beats the market. Meanwhile, the Seeking Alpha authors&#39; average rating is more positive with a Buy, and so is the average Wall Street analysts&#39; rating Buy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Rises After BofA Keeps Buy Rating Ahead of AI Event Spurring Investor Debate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Rises After BofA Keeps Buy Rating Ahead of AI Event Spurring Investor Debate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-03 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4156058-amd-rises-after-bofa-keeps-buy-rating-ahead-of-ai-event-spurring-investor-debate><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices' stock rose about 3% on Thursday after BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating ahead of the company's AI event on Oct. 10.Analysts led by Vivek Arya said their top AI picks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4156058-amd-rises-after-bofa-keeps-buy-rating-ahead-of-ai-event-spurring-investor-debate\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4156058-amd-rises-after-bofa-keeps-buy-rating-ahead-of-ai-event-spurring-investor-debate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1136164227","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices' stock rose about 3% on Thursday after BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating ahead of the company's AI event on Oct. 10.Analysts led by Vivek Arya said their top AI picks remain Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). However, they noted that AMD's rating was maintained because the company is uniquely positioned for — CPU Share gains: AMD can capitalize in PC/server and CPU share market by taking share from Intel (INTC), which remains in turmoil with frequent restructuring.The second is, AI growth: Ride the expanding AI market (2027 AI accelerator total addressable market, or TAM, at over $400B, according to AMD) where the leader Nvidia continues to expand the addressable market that is always looking for alternative merchant and application-specific integrated circuit, or ASIC, suppliers, according to the analysts.Last year AMD's event, known as Advancing AI, was held on Dec. 6 and produced 19%/80% stock returns 1/3 months later (compared to Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) up 10%/37%), as AMD unveiled a massive $400B 2027 TAM in AI accelerators, the analysts added.Similarly, roadmap updates in AI (MI-325/250/400) and server CPU (Zen-5 based Turin, versus Intel Granite Rapids) with supporting cloud customer comments could reinvigorate AMD stock, which is up about 9% year-to-date, well below SOX which has risen around 22%, as per the analysts.However, the competitive landscape is getting crowded, while expectations are already high with investors expecting AMD to boost 2024 AI sales by another 10% to over $5B, while showing a path to doubling it year-over-year to $10B in 2025, BofA noted.Arya and his team added that current consensus of $5.1B/$9.7B/$12.8B for '24/25/26 AI sales implies that AMD's accelerator market share likely remains around 5% to 7%, well below its 20%+ share in consumer CPU and gaming GPU.The analysts said that AMD is off to a remarkable start but it could be tougher to carve a bigger niche between Nvidia's over 80% to 85% share, cloud incumbency, over 15-years software/developer lead on one extreme, and the nearly 10% market share presence of cost-optimized custom ASICs from Broadcom /Marvell Technology (MRVL) on the other extreme.However, if, AMD is able to show a path to 10% AI share by 2026, it would conceptually add around $5B (on top of $12.6B) in sales, with scenario EPS of around $8-$9 (vs. consensus at $7.37).Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a Hold rating at Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating system, which consistently beats the market. Meanwhile, the Seeking Alpha authors' average rating is more positive with a Buy, and so is the average Wall Street analysts' rating Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":287083388538976,"gmtCreate":1711111409326,"gmtModify":1711115570618,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/287083388538976","repostId":"1148479259","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345437900783760,"gmtCreate":1725377720906,"gmtModify":1725377724571,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345437900783760","repostId":"1135102427","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135102427","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1725375514,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135102427?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-03 22:58","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Top Calls on Wall Street: Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, Boeing, Bank of America, IBM, Meta, Uber & More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135102427","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:Wells Fargo downgrades Boeing to underweight from equal weightWells said in its downgrade of the aerospace giant that it’s a “cash opportunity missed.”“","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:</p><h2 id=\"id_1042980453\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Wells Fargo downgrades Boeing to underweight from equal weight</h2><p>Wells said in its downgrade of the aerospace giant that it’s a “cash opportunity missed.”</p><p>“We think <u>BA</u> had a generational FCF opportunity this decade, driven by ramping production on mature aircraft and low investment need. But after extensive delays and added cost, we now see growing production cash flow running into a new aircraft investment cycle, capping FCF a few years out.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1448037628\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Deutsche Bank upgrades Bank of America and Wells Fargo to buy from hold and downgrades JPMorgan to hold form buy</h2><p>The firm said it’s getting bullish on several banks on Tuesday. Deutsche also downgraded JPMorgan citing “less upside.”</p><p>“While we continue to view the overall bank group as somewhat in no man’s land, we see some shifting in opportunities within our coverage. As part of this, we are downgrading <u>JPM</u> from BUY to HOLD and upgrading both <u>BAC</u> and <u>WFC</u> from HOLD to BUY.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1294014026\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Evercore ISI upgrades Southwest to outperform from in line</h2><p>Evercore said it sees several positive catalysts ahead for the airline.</p><p>“Our rating on <u>LUV</u> shares is raised to Outperform from In Line given the long-awaited transition to capacity discipline (culling least productive flying), new revenue initiatives to be outlined at upcoming Sept. 26 investor day (assigned seating, premium economy) and strong underlying fleet value.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2685769590\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Piper Sandler downgrades Simon Property to neutral from overweight</h2><p>Piper said it’s worried about slowing earnings growth for the real estate investment trust mall operator.</p><p>“Our rating change is based on anticipated slower earnings growth for <u>SPG</u> versus shopping centers over the next 2 years and represents the first time we haven’t had an OW rating since late 2009.”</p><h2 id=\"id_14844766\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley upgrades Unity Software to overweight from equal weight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said shares of the software company are now derisked.</p><p>“Growth Expectations for <u>U</u> Now Look Derisked, With Clear Potential Upside Drivers Ahead.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1893750293\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Loop upgrades NetApp to buy from hold</h2><p>Loop said in its upgrade of <u>NetApp</u> that it’s bullish on the data infrastructure company.</p><p>“We’re upgrading to Buy and $150 PT on a stock we’ve been chasing for &gt; 12 months. Last summer we tried to get cute and wait an additional 90 days to about this same time, the stock began to run on us and we’ve been out of position ever since.”</p><h2 id=\"id_590762866\" style=\"text-align: start;\">B. Riley upgrades Redfin to buy from neutral</h2><p>B. Riley said fundamentals are improving for the real estate company.</p><p>“We’re upgrading <u>Redfin</u> Corporation from Neutral to Buy to reflect improving business fundamentals, including a) structural improvements in the core brokerage business with the introduction of Next, which position the business favorably for growth and profitability as real estate cycle turns, b) likelihood of a more favorable macro backdrop as interest rates are lowered over the next several months...”</p><h2 id=\"id_4055681648\" style=\"text-align: start;\">HSBC upgrades AutoDesk to buy from hold</h2><p>HSBC upgraded the software company following earnings.</p><p>“<u>Autodesk’s</u> 2QFY25 profit was well above forecasts.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3813360226\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein reiterates Apple as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said it’s bullish heading into the company’s iPhone event next week.</p><p>“On September 9th, <u>Apple</u> is expected to unveil its next generation iPhone 16, updated Apple watches and Airpods, and make further announcements regarding Apple Intelligence.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2288649012\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Melius upgrades Lockheed Martin to buy from hold</h2><p>The firm said the defense company is well positioned.</p><p>“<u>Lockheed Martin</u> has the most international exposure relative to its large cap defense hardware peers, meaning that it is well-positioned for Europe’s defense recapitalization.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2540797432\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein reiterates Ferrari as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said the luxury car company is well positioned.</p><p>“We are raising our TP on <u>Ferrari</u> from $488 to $599 and reiterate our Outperform rating.”</p><h2 id=\"id_370960116\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Nvidia &amp; Broadcom as overweight</h2><p>The firm said both semis stocks are top picks throughout the rest of 2024.</p><p>“Our Top Picks heading into year-end are now <u>NVDA,</u> <u>AVGO,</u> MU, WDC, NXPI, ASML, and TER.”</p><h2 id=\"id_970043580\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs adds IBM and Conagra to the conviction list</h2><p>The firm added both stocks to its conviction buy list.</p><p>“We add <u>Conagra</u> (CAG), <u>International Business Machines</u> (IBM), and Insmed (INSM) to the Americas Conviction List, while removing Ally Financial (ALLY), Dollar General (DG), Installed Building Products (IBP), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).”</p><h2 id=\"id_3158824230\" style=\"text-align: start;\">JPMorgan reiterates Amazon, Meta and Uber as best ideas</h2><p>The firm said it’s sticking with all three stocks as top picks.</p><p>“We continue to prefer large- cap companies w/strong secular growth potential &amp; company specific drivers (<u>AMZN,</u> <u>META,</u> <u>UBER</u>), along w/subscription names that we believe are more macro resilient (NFLX, SPOT).”</p><h2 id=\"id_1838488575\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies downgrades Novartis to hold from buy</h2><p>Jefferies said in its downgrade of <u>Novartis</u> that the pharma company’s pipeline launches will take longer to come to fruition.</p><p>“Sales of key launches need to demonstrate a robust ramp-up to drive confidence in potential for longer-term upgrades.”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Calls on Wall Street: Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, Boeing, Bank of America, IBM, Meta, Uber & More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Calls on Wall Street: Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, Boeing, Bank of America, IBM, Meta, Uber & More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-03 22:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:</p><h2 id=\"id_1042980453\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Wells Fargo downgrades Boeing to underweight from equal weight</h2><p>Wells said in its downgrade of the aerospace giant that it’s a “cash opportunity missed.”</p><p>“We think <u>BA</u> had a generational FCF opportunity this decade, driven by ramping production on mature aircraft and low investment need. But after extensive delays and added cost, we now see growing production cash flow running into a new aircraft investment cycle, capping FCF a few years out.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1448037628\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Deutsche Bank upgrades Bank of America and Wells Fargo to buy from hold and downgrades JPMorgan to hold form buy</h2><p>The firm said it’s getting bullish on several banks on Tuesday. Deutsche also downgraded JPMorgan citing “less upside.”</p><p>“While we continue to view the overall bank group as somewhat in no man’s land, we see some shifting in opportunities within our coverage. As part of this, we are downgrading <u>JPM</u> from BUY to HOLD and upgrading both <u>BAC</u> and <u>WFC</u> from HOLD to BUY.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1294014026\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Evercore ISI upgrades Southwest to outperform from in line</h2><p>Evercore said it sees several positive catalysts ahead for the airline.</p><p>“Our rating on <u>LUV</u> shares is raised to Outperform from In Line given the long-awaited transition to capacity discipline (culling least productive flying), new revenue initiatives to be outlined at upcoming Sept. 26 investor day (assigned seating, premium economy) and strong underlying fleet value.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2685769590\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Piper Sandler downgrades Simon Property to neutral from overweight</h2><p>Piper said it’s worried about slowing earnings growth for the real estate investment trust mall operator.</p><p>“Our rating change is based on anticipated slower earnings growth for <u>SPG</u> versus shopping centers over the next 2 years and represents the first time we haven’t had an OW rating since late 2009.”</p><h2 id=\"id_14844766\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley upgrades Unity Software to overweight from equal weight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said shares of the software company are now derisked.</p><p>“Growth Expectations for <u>U</u> Now Look Derisked, With Clear Potential Upside Drivers Ahead.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1893750293\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Loop upgrades NetApp to buy from hold</h2><p>Loop said in its upgrade of <u>NetApp</u> that it’s bullish on the data infrastructure company.</p><p>“We’re upgrading to Buy and $150 PT on a stock we’ve been chasing for &gt; 12 months. Last summer we tried to get cute and wait an additional 90 days to about this same time, the stock began to run on us and we’ve been out of position ever since.”</p><h2 id=\"id_590762866\" style=\"text-align: start;\">B. Riley upgrades Redfin to buy from neutral</h2><p>B. Riley said fundamentals are improving for the real estate company.</p><p>“We’re upgrading <u>Redfin</u> Corporation from Neutral to Buy to reflect improving business fundamentals, including a) structural improvements in the core brokerage business with the introduction of Next, which position the business favorably for growth and profitability as real estate cycle turns, b) likelihood of a more favorable macro backdrop as interest rates are lowered over the next several months...”</p><h2 id=\"id_4055681648\" style=\"text-align: start;\">HSBC upgrades AutoDesk to buy from hold</h2><p>HSBC upgraded the software company following earnings.</p><p>“<u>Autodesk’s</u> 2QFY25 profit was well above forecasts.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3813360226\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein reiterates Apple as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said it’s bullish heading into the company’s iPhone event next week.</p><p>“On September 9th, <u>Apple</u> is expected to unveil its next generation iPhone 16, updated Apple watches and Airpods, and make further announcements regarding Apple Intelligence.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2288649012\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Melius upgrades Lockheed Martin to buy from hold</h2><p>The firm said the defense company is well positioned.</p><p>“<u>Lockheed Martin</u> has the most international exposure relative to its large cap defense hardware peers, meaning that it is well-positioned for Europe’s defense recapitalization.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2540797432\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein reiterates Ferrari as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said the luxury car company is well positioned.</p><p>“We are raising our TP on <u>Ferrari</u> from $488 to $599 and reiterate our Outperform rating.”</p><h2 id=\"id_370960116\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Nvidia &amp; Broadcom as overweight</h2><p>The firm said both semis stocks are top picks throughout the rest of 2024.</p><p>“Our Top Picks heading into year-end are now <u>NVDA,</u> <u>AVGO,</u> MU, WDC, NXPI, ASML, and TER.”</p><h2 id=\"id_970043580\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs adds IBM and Conagra to the conviction list</h2><p>The firm added both stocks to its conviction buy list.</p><p>“We add <u>Conagra</u> (CAG), <u>International Business Machines</u> (IBM), and Insmed (INSM) to the Americas Conviction List, while removing Ally Financial (ALLY), Dollar General (DG), Installed Building Products (IBP), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).”</p><h2 id=\"id_3158824230\" style=\"text-align: start;\">JPMorgan reiterates Amazon, Meta and Uber as best ideas</h2><p>The firm said it’s sticking with all three stocks as top picks.</p><p>“We continue to prefer large- cap companies w/strong secular growth potential &amp; company specific drivers (<u>AMZN,</u> <u>META,</u> <u>UBER</u>), along w/subscription names that we believe are more macro resilient (NFLX, SPOT).”</p><h2 id=\"id_1838488575\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies downgrades Novartis to hold from buy</h2><p>Jefferies said in its downgrade of <u>Novartis</u> that the pharma company’s pipeline launches will take longer to come to fruition.</p><p>“Sales of key launches need to demonstrate a robust ramp-up to drive confidence in potential for longer-term upgrades.”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AVGO":"博通","UBER":"优步","BAC":"美国银行","BK4020":"通信设备","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","AMZN":"亚马逊","RDFN":"Redfin Corp","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","SPG":"西蒙地产","BK4230":"旅客陆运","WFC":"富国银行","NTAP":"美国网存","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","AAPL":"苹果","BK4539":"次新股","BA":"波音","U":"Unity Software Inc.","LUV":"西南航空","NVS":"诺华","ADSK":"欧特克","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IBM":"IBM","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","RACE":"法拉利","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LMT":"洛克希德马丁"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135102427","content_text":"Here are Tuesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:Wells Fargo downgrades Boeing to underweight from equal weightWells said in its downgrade of the aerospace giant that it’s a “cash opportunity missed.”“We think BA had a generational FCF opportunity this decade, driven by ramping production on mature aircraft and low investment need. But after extensive delays and added cost, we now see growing production cash flow running into a new aircraft investment cycle, capping FCF a few years out.”Deutsche Bank upgrades Bank of America and Wells Fargo to buy from hold and downgrades JPMorgan to hold form buyThe firm said it’s getting bullish on several banks on Tuesday. Deutsche also downgraded JPMorgan citing “less upside.”“While we continue to view the overall bank group as somewhat in no man’s land, we see some shifting in opportunities within our coverage. As part of this, we are downgrading JPM from BUY to HOLD and upgrading both BAC and WFC from HOLD to BUY.”Evercore ISI upgrades Southwest to outperform from in lineEvercore said it sees several positive catalysts ahead for the airline.“Our rating on LUV shares is raised to Outperform from In Line given the long-awaited transition to capacity discipline (culling least productive flying), new revenue initiatives to be outlined at upcoming Sept. 26 investor day (assigned seating, premium economy) and strong underlying fleet value.”Piper Sandler downgrades Simon Property to neutral from overweightPiper said it’s worried about slowing earnings growth for the real estate investment trust mall operator.“Our rating change is based on anticipated slower earnings growth for SPG versus shopping centers over the next 2 years and represents the first time we haven’t had an OW rating since late 2009.”Morgan Stanley upgrades Unity Software to overweight from equal weightMorgan Stanley said shares of the software company are now derisked.“Growth Expectations for U Now Look Derisked, With Clear Potential Upside Drivers Ahead.”Loop upgrades NetApp to buy from holdLoop said in its upgrade of NetApp that it’s bullish on the data infrastructure company.“We’re upgrading to Buy and $150 PT on a stock we’ve been chasing for > 12 months. Last summer we tried to get cute and wait an additional 90 days to about this same time, the stock began to run on us and we’ve been out of position ever since.”B. Riley upgrades Redfin to buy from neutralB. Riley said fundamentals are improving for the real estate company.“We’re upgrading Redfin Corporation from Neutral to Buy to reflect improving business fundamentals, including a) structural improvements in the core brokerage business with the introduction of Next, which position the business favorably for growth and profitability as real estate cycle turns, b) likelihood of a more favorable macro backdrop as interest rates are lowered over the next several months...”HSBC upgrades AutoDesk to buy from holdHSBC upgraded the software company following earnings.“Autodesk’s 2QFY25 profit was well above forecasts.”Bernstein reiterates Apple as outperformBernstein said it’s bullish heading into the company’s iPhone event next week.“On September 9th, Apple is expected to unveil its next generation iPhone 16, updated Apple watches and Airpods, and make further announcements regarding Apple Intelligence.”Melius upgrades Lockheed Martin to buy from holdThe firm said the defense company is well positioned.“Lockheed Martin has the most international exposure relative to its large cap defense hardware peers, meaning that it is well-positioned for Europe’s defense recapitalization.”Bernstein reiterates Ferrari as outperformBernstein said the luxury car company is well positioned.“We are raising our TP on Ferrari from $488 to $599 and reiterate our Outperform rating.”Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Nvidia & Broadcom as overweightThe firm said both semis stocks are top picks throughout the rest of 2024.“Our Top Picks heading into year-end are now NVDA, AVGO, MU, WDC, NXPI, ASML, and TER.”Goldman Sachs adds IBM and Conagra to the conviction listThe firm added both stocks to its conviction buy list.“We add Conagra (CAG), International Business Machines (IBM), and Insmed (INSM) to the Americas Conviction List, while removing Ally Financial (ALLY), Dollar General (DG), Installed Building Products (IBP), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).”JPMorgan reiterates Amazon, Meta and Uber as best ideasThe firm said it’s sticking with all three stocks as top picks.“We continue to prefer large- cap companies w/strong secular growth potential & company specific drivers (AMZN, META, UBER), along w/subscription names that we believe are more macro resilient (NFLX, SPOT).”Jefferies downgrades Novartis to hold from buyJefferies said in its downgrade of Novartis that the pharma company’s pipeline launches will take longer to come to fruition.“Sales of key launches need to demonstrate a robust ramp-up to drive confidence in potential for longer-term upgrades.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357939947634928,"gmtCreate":1728408088006,"gmtModify":1728408091934,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357939947634928","repostId":"2473447500","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2473447500","pubTimestamp":1728396379,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2473447500?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-08 22:06","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Will Nvidia Be Worth More Than Apple by 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2473447500","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Nvidia isn't far off from taking the world's largest company title.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Apple struggled to grow iPhone sales recently, and it looks no better this year.</p></li><li><p>Demand for Nvidia&#39;s GPUs is unprecedented and remains strong.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia&#39;s profits are expected to double over the next year.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Apple </strong>(AAPL) is the world&#39;s largest company, with a $3.37 trillion market cap. However, <strong>Nvidia </strong>(NVDA) isn&#39;t far behind, in second place with a $3.13 trillion valuation. To overtake Apple as the world&#39;s largest company, Nvidia&#39;s stock needs to rise around 8% while Apple&#39;s stock stays flat.</p><p>Is this feasible? After all, Apple&#39;s revenue over the last 12 months totals $385 billion, while Nvidia&#39;s is a comparatively smaller $96 billion.</p><h2 id=\"id_693678177\">Apple has a growth problem, while Nvidia doesn&#39;t</h2><p>The current state of these two businesses couldn&#39;t be more different.</p><p>Apple&#39;s consumer products are quite popular in the U.S. and overseas. However, it struggled to turn this popularity into any sort of revenue growth recently, as its most popular device, the iPhone, failed to grow sales meaningfully over the past three years.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><th style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Year</p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Q3 iPhone Sales</p></th></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$39.3 billion</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$39.7 billion</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$40.7 billion</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$39.6 billion</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: Apple. Note: Apple&#39;s Q3 ends around June 30 each year.</p><p>The big hope was that this year&#39;s iPhone 16 launch would trigger an upgrade wave thanks to its ability to run Apple&#39;s take on artificial intelligence (AI), Apple Intelligence. Unfortunately for Apple, many reports suggest the demand for the iPhone 16 hasn&#39;t been great, affecting a potential business catalyst.</p><p>Nvidia isn&#39;t having that same problem. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) are powering the AI revolution thanks to being best-in-class. The biggest AI companies are buying these GPUs by the thousands, which is massively benefiting Nvidia. In the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending July 28), Nvidia&#39;s revenue rose 122% year over year. That strength is also expected to continue next quarter, with management guiding for $32.5 billion in revenue, or about 80% year over year growth.</p><p>Nvidia is also expected see revenue growth at least through next year, as many companies are still building out their AI computing infrastructure. To add to Nvidia&#39;s growth potential, it&#39;s releasing its Blackwell architecture, unlocking massive speed gains compared to its current Hopper architecture.</p><p>Wall Street analysts believe Nvidia&#39;s revenue will grow around 42% next year, far outpacing Apple&#39;s projections of 8% growth.</p><p>Still, that growth won&#39;t be enough to catch Apple in terms of revenue. So, how could a company that generates far less revenue overtake another as the world&#39;s largest company?</p><h2 id=\"id_2093728356\">Nvidia&#39;s profits are set to explode next year</h2><p>Revenue isn&#39;t everything when assessing a company. What matters more are profits and valuation. If the only thing that mattered was revenue, then <strong>Walmart </strong>would be valued as the world&#39;s largest company, as it generated $665 billion in revenue over the past year compared to Apple&#39;s $385 billion.</p><p>When profits are considered, Nvidia starts to move a bit closer to Apple.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/103c55888bdbe6b60bbceb329379fe55\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>AAPL Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p><p>While Nvidia is rapidly closing the gap, it still generates about half the profits of Apple. But with its growth pace and stronger profit margin (55% compared to 26% for Apple), Nvidia could quickly catch Apple&#39;s profit levels.</p><p>By the end of the next fiscal year for each company (Apple&#39;s ends around the end of September while Nvidia&#39;s ends in January), if each business maintains its current profit margin, Apple will generate about $110 billion in profits, while Nvidia would be slightly below at $98 billion.</p><p>That&#39;s a <em>huge</em> gap to close in just a year&#39;s time, but if Nvidia&#39;s business grows the way analysts think it can, it will be right there with Apple.</p><p>Next comes valuation. Investors usually give companies premiums if they are growing at a faster pace or have a strong brand. Nvidia has both of these things, which is why its valuation is so high. On the other hand, Apple has a strong brand but slower growth. If Nvidia is expected to keep its revenue growth going through 2026, it will likely fetch a higher premium than Apple, which would probably propel it to overtake Apple as the world&#39;s largest company.</p><p>Nvidia has a lot going for it, and its financial picture will change substantially over the next year. I think this could be enough to surpass Apple as the world&#39;s largest company, as Apple has some growth issues it needs to address.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Nvidia Be Worth More Than Apple by 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Nvidia Be Worth More Than Apple by 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-08 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/10/08/will-nvidia-be-worth-more-than-apple-by-2025/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple struggled to grow iPhone sales recently, and it looks no better this year.Demand for Nvidia's GPUs is unprecedented and remains strong.Nvidia's profits are expected to double over the next year....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/10/08/will-nvidia-be-worth-more-than-apple-by-2025/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4543":"AI","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","AAPL":"苹果","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/10/08/will-nvidia-be-worth-more-than-apple-by-2025/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2473447500","content_text":"Apple struggled to grow iPhone sales recently, and it looks no better this year.Demand for Nvidia's GPUs is unprecedented and remains strong.Nvidia's profits are expected to double over the next year.Apple (AAPL) is the world's largest company, with a $3.37 trillion market cap. However, Nvidia (NVDA) isn't far behind, in second place with a $3.13 trillion valuation. To overtake Apple as the world's largest company, Nvidia's stock needs to rise around 8% while Apple's stock stays flat.Is this feasible? After all, Apple's revenue over the last 12 months totals $385 billion, while Nvidia's is a comparatively smaller $96 billion.Apple has a growth problem, while Nvidia doesn'tThe current state of these two businesses couldn't be more different.Apple's consumer products are quite popular in the U.S. and overseas. However, it struggled to turn this popularity into any sort of revenue growth recently, as its most popular device, the iPhone, failed to grow sales meaningfully over the past three years.YearQ3 iPhone Sales2024$39.3 billion2023$39.7 billion2022$40.7 billion2021$39.6 billionData source: Apple. Note: Apple's Q3 ends around June 30 each year.The big hope was that this year's iPhone 16 launch would trigger an upgrade wave thanks to its ability to run Apple's take on artificial intelligence (AI), Apple Intelligence. Unfortunately for Apple, many reports suggest the demand for the iPhone 16 hasn't been great, affecting a potential business catalyst.Nvidia isn't having that same problem. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) are powering the AI revolution thanks to being best-in-class. The biggest AI companies are buying these GPUs by the thousands, which is massively benefiting Nvidia. In the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending July 28), Nvidia's revenue rose 122% year over year. That strength is also expected to continue next quarter, with management guiding for $32.5 billion in revenue, or about 80% year over year growth.Nvidia is also expected see revenue growth at least through next year, as many companies are still building out their AI computing infrastructure. To add to Nvidia's growth potential, it's releasing its Blackwell architecture, unlocking massive speed gains compared to its current Hopper architecture.Wall Street analysts believe Nvidia's revenue will grow around 42% next year, far outpacing Apple's projections of 8% growth.Still, that growth won't be enough to catch Apple in terms of revenue. So, how could a company that generates far less revenue overtake another as the world's largest company?Nvidia's profits are set to explode next yearRevenue isn't everything when assessing a company. What matters more are profits and valuation. If the only thing that mattered was revenue, then Walmart would be valued as the world's largest company, as it generated $665 billion in revenue over the past year compared to Apple's $385 billion.When profits are considered, Nvidia starts to move a bit closer to Apple.AAPL Net Income (TTM) data by YChartsWhile Nvidia is rapidly closing the gap, it still generates about half the profits of Apple. But with its growth pace and stronger profit margin (55% compared to 26% for Apple), Nvidia could quickly catch Apple's profit levels.By the end of the next fiscal year for each company (Apple's ends around the end of September while Nvidia's ends in January), if each business maintains its current profit margin, Apple will generate about $110 billion in profits, while Nvidia would be slightly below at $98 billion.That's a huge gap to close in just a year's time, but if Nvidia's business grows the way analysts think it can, it will be right there with Apple.Next comes valuation. Investors usually give companies premiums if they are growing at a faster pace or have a strong brand. Nvidia has both of these things, which is why its valuation is so high. On the other hand, Apple has a strong brand but slower growth. If Nvidia is expected to keep its revenue growth going through 2026, it will likely fetch a higher premium than Apple, which would probably propel it to overtake Apple as the world's largest company.Nvidia has a lot going for it, and its financial picture will change substantially over the next year. I think this could be enough to surpass Apple as the world's largest company, as Apple has some growth issues it needs to address.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":288161748721928,"gmtCreate":1711374663534,"gmtModify":1711378579365,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/288161748721928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341258834075952,"gmtCreate":1724355733400,"gmtModify":1724355736971,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341258834075952","repostId":"2461381090","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461381090","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1724292297,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2461381090?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-22 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Make-or-Break Moment That Will Determine the Economy's Fate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461381090","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"There's a saying that economic expansions don't die of old age: They're murdered by the Federal Reserve.Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spent the past two years determined to beat inflation even if it resulted in recession. Now he's on the brink of winning the battle without bringing down the economy, but the next few months will be crucial.If he succeeds and maneuvers the economy to a soft landing that brings inflation down without a big rise in unemployment, it'll be a historic achievement worthy of the central banking Hall of Fame. If he fails, the economy will slide into recession anyway under the weight of higher interest rates -- and he'll have proved the old maxim about the Fed.For Powell, the last phase of the Fed's inflation fight marks a make-or-break moment. How he plans his approach will loom over the central bank's annual conference in Wyoming's Grand Teton National Park this week, including during a widely anticipated speech on Friday.Powell is navigating against the backdrop","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>There&#39;s a saying that economic expansions don&#39;t die of old age: They&#39;re murdered by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spent the past two years determined to beat inflation even if it resulted in recession. Now he&#39;s on the brink of winning the battle without bringing down the economy, but the next few months will be crucial.</p><p>If he succeeds and maneuvers the economy to a soft landing that brings inflation down without a big rise in unemployment, it&#39;ll be a historic achievement worthy of the central banking Hall of Fame. If he fails, the economy will slide into recession anyway under the weight of higher interest rates -- and he&#39;ll have proved the old maxim about the Fed.</p><p>Powell and his colleagues have signaled in recent weeks that they&#39;re ready to start cutting rates when they next meet in September, with price pressures now easing but the jobs market cooling. That&#39;s put attention on how fast officials should bring down rates from a two-decade high.</p><p>For Powell, the last phase of the Fed&#39;s inflation fight marks a make-or-break moment. How he plans his approach will loom over the central bank&#39;s annual conference in Wyoming&#39;s Grand Teton National Park this week, including during a widely anticipated speech on Friday.</p><p>When Powell spoke there two years ago amid doubts over the Fed&#39;s conviction to bring down inflation, he delivered a somber promise. He signaled his readiness to accept a recession as the price of curing high inflation by invoking the example of former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, the Fed famously ratcheted rates to very high levels and put the economy through a wrenching downturn that ultimately tamed high prices.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b36a2f1029bc40f9fd8e9c27c081aa7f\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>The Fed under Powell also raised rates rapidly, in 2022 and 2023. Still, Powell has held on to the possibility that the Fed might be able to avoid a recession this time around because the inflation of 2021-23 was different from the 1970s episode.</p><p>For Fed officials, sticking a soft landing would offer the ultimate redemption. Three years ago, they had incorrectly predicted inflation would be short lived. Success would illustrate that the costs of being slow to end aggressive stimulus policies in 2021 weren&#39;t as disastrous as many critics warned.</p><p>&#34;It would be the finest moment in their history,&#34; said Dario Perkins, an economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. &#34;They could say, &#39;We not only prevented this 1970s runaway-inflation scenario, but we&#39;ve managed to do it with no meaningful cost to the economy -- this perfect soft landing.&#39;&#34;</p><p>In doing so, Powell has the chance to emulate two of his heroes. A successful outcome would marry the fortitude of Volcker with the deftness of Alan Greenspan, who as Fed chair in the late 1990s resisted calls to slow the economy amid a boom that yielded little inflation.</p><p><strong>&#39;Bad karma&#39;</strong></p><p>Powell is navigating against the backdrop of a divisive election campaign, and the Fed&#39;s decisions could shape the economy the next president inherits.</p><p>Democrats including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have criticized Powell for not having cut rates sooner. They make no secret they&#39;ll blame any economic downturn on Powell.</p><p>Donald Trump, who appointed Powell as chair in 2018, says he wants a greater say in interest-rate policy if he recaptures the presidency this fall. A recession could embolden the GOP nominee in his quest to mold the institution to his liking.</p><p>Much could still go wrong, something Powell knows well. Slamming into or skidding off the runway is something the mild-mannered Fed chair has said keeps him up at night. Powell, 71, refrains from using the &#34;soft landing&#34; term, according to people who have worked or spoken with him, to avoid sounding like he has counted his chickens before they hatch. Instead, he&#39;ll refer to it obliquely as &#34;the good outcome&#34; or &#34;that thing we all want.&#34;</p><p>He&#39;s not alone. &#34;I try not to use the phrase. It&#39;s bad karma,&#34; said Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, in an interview last week.</p><p>The Fed chief -- who after college traveled through Europe with his guitar, serenading patrons at a Paris cafe with Hank Williams ballads including &#34;I&#39;m So Lonesome I Could Cry&#34; -- said recently he and his wife have stopped dining at restaurants. &#34;People at the next table are always listening,&#34; he told a lunchtime audience of a few hundred businesspeople in Washington last month.</p><p><strong>The economic script has flipped</strong></p><p>Worries about the labor market have raised questions about how quickly to cut rates.</p><p>Inflation has fallen to around 2.5% from above 7% two years ago, not far from the Fed&#39;s 2% target. But the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in July from 3.7% at the beginning of the year. While that&#39;s a historically low level, it won&#39;t necessarily stay there. Usually when the unemployment rate starts rising a little bit, it subsequently rises by a lot. That line of thinking argues for lowering rates with reasonable speed.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5febaa9ad5594c333838f37335ce4bf1\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"653\"/></p><p>Yet some officials are nervous that rate cuts will stoke new price pressures that jeopardize their hard-won gains.</p><p>The U.S. economy has defied rolling predictions of imminent recession, powering through higher rates over the last two years. Now evidence is gathering that unique buffers that shielded the economy so far, including pandemic-era savings cushions and an immigration surge that boosted spending, could be fading along several fronts.</p><p>Low- and middle-income consumers&#39; budgets are showing strains. More companies say they&#39;re focusing again on keeping costs down to attract deal-conscious shoppers.</p><p>The U.S. housing sector, which avoided a downturn that usually occurs when interest rates rise sharply, faces a bleak outlook. Today&#39;s pool of would-be buyers have weaker income and wealth profiles than those who stepped up to buy homes when mortgage rates first soared above 6% two years ago.</p><p>Many homeowners have held their homes off the market, which initially limited competition for home builders. That&#39;s ending now as inventories are rising. Meanwhile, an apartment building boom that kept construction workers on job sites is over. The number of housing units under construction has fallen nearly 10% over the past year, the largest such decline since 2011.</p><p>In the labor market, companies have slowed hiring. For now, layoffs are low. But what looks like a controlled demolition of labor demand risks moving past a tipping point. The Labor Department said Wednesday that payroll growth for the 12 months ending in March could be revised down to 2.1 million jobs from an initially reported figure of nearly three million jobs, meaning job gains for most of 2023 and the first three months of this year were milder.</p><p>&#34;If job openings fall a lot more, people who lose their jobs are not going to be able to walk across the street and find work,&#34; said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.</p><p><strong>Sticking the landing</strong></p><p>Many downturns look like soft landings at first, but since World War II, the U.S. has convincingly achieved only one, in 1995. Back then, Greenspan attempted to pre-empt inflationary pressures by raising rates rapidly, from 3% to 6%. He then reversed course and over six months cut rates to 5.25%.</p><p>Whether Powell manages the feat depends not only on whether the economy is weakening under the surface faster but also whether lower rates can spur new borrowing and spending to counteract any softness.</p><p>Investors are optimistic because the Fed has plenty of room to cut. Still, some borrowers could face a squeeze from the lagged effects of the Fed&#39;s past hikes even after the central bank reduces borrowing costs.</p><p>That&#39;s because borrowers enjoyed more than a decade of historically very low borrowing costs before the Fed started raising rates, and many firms and households still have low fixed-rate debt. If that debt matures in the next year, they could face a sizable increase in borrowing costs even if the Fed cuts rates by a full percentage point.</p><p>A soft landing seems tantalizingly close because the economy so far has hewed closer to an optimistic scenario Fed officials outlined two years ago.</p><p>When officials began lifting rates from near zero in 2022, prominent economists said a period of higher unemployment was almost required to create enough slack -- such as unemployed workers and idled factories -- to lower prices. They argued inflation was being driven by overheated labor markets.</p><p>Fed leaders said another path was possible because inflation had been driven not by the labor market but by the collision between strong demand and discombobulated supply chains. They suggested the labor market was so out of whack after the pandemic, as reopening businesses scrambled to hire workers, that cooling demand might lead firms to simply scrap unfilled openings rather than fire workers.</p><p>Good luck has played a part in that outcome. Supply chains healed last year. The economy avoided new shocks, such as a sharp rise in oil prices or a financial-market blowup. And a surge in immigration boosted output while alleviating worker shortages. &#34;We know more now about where this [inflation] came from because we can see what made it go away,&#34; Powell told lawmakers last month.</p><p>Earlier this year, as economists puzzled over why interest rates hadn&#39;t done more to slow the economy, Powell suggested that the immigration surge might have masked the effects of tight interest-rate policy. His underlying concern was that the effects of restrictive policy would reveal themselves gradually and then suddenly.</p><p><strong>&#39;What&#39;s the rush?&#39; vs. &#39;Why are we waiting?&#39;</strong></p><p>Inside the Fed, the economic uncertainty threatens to end a period of unanimity that is remarkable even for a committee that prizes consensus. No Fed officials have dissented at a policy meeting since June 2022, matching a streak last seen between 2003 and 2005.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b3556625057d6f2222b1979c0a34f0d\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p>One camp that includes Fed governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid worries cutting rates too soon will reignite inflation or allow it to settle out closer to 3%—well above their target. With the unemployment rate at a historically low level, this group has argued, “What’s the rush?”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This group has also reacted skeptically to pessimism about the labor market. They point to how the recent uptick in the unemployment rate has been driven by temporary and not permanent layoffs along with an increase in the number of people entering the job market. They think interest rates are only moderately restrictive, meaning the Fed may not need to cut rates very much.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Another camp is more anxious about growing too complacent about the slowdown in labor demand. Inflation-adjusted interest rates are at their highest level in decades, and these officials are asking, “Why are we waiting?”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“In regular business cycles, unemployment goes up like a rocket but comes down like a feather,” said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview. While the current cycle might be unusual, “it’s at least a note of caution that the job market has been cooling. It needs to stop cooling.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Many are ready to start cutting rates by a traditional quarter-percentage-point next month but aren’t sure how fast they should go thereafter. At issue is the question over how far rates currently sit above a “neutral” setting that neither spurs nor slows activity.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the September meeting, Fed officials will have to fill out their projections for interest rates for the next three years. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is dreading it because he’s so uncertain “about how tight policy is right now,” he said in an interview.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Barkin said he and his Richmond Fed staff canvass hundreds of businesses to see if demand is weakening and whether they are preparing to lay off workers as a result. He isn’t seeing it outside of a few narrow sectors. “You can make mistakes by moving too aggressively or not aggressively enough,” he said.</p><p>Broadly speaking, the Fed faces two paths for the coming months. Under one, officials could cut rates by a quarter-point at each of their next few meetings and then dial up or down the size and speed of reductions depending on how the economy fares early next year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the economy enters a sharper slowdown, they could cut rates in larger half-point increments to get interest rates closer to 3% by next spring. (The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently set between 5.25% and 5.5%.)</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Powell is likely to keep his options open when he speaks this week. Labor market data for August, to be released early next month, could tip the scales in favor of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July’s readings.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The reason you move gradually as a central banker is it gives you optionality,” said Goolsbee. “The downside of gradualism is that when things move, you don’t have that luxury anymore.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A handful of private-sector and former Fed economists, including at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, say evidence that the labor market might be weakening too much should lead officials to make larger rate cuts upfront, shedding their longstanding preference for gradualism.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“They’ve got a lot of wood to chop, and they need to get going. But it’s a very consensus-driven place, and they don’t have the consensus yet to do that,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. That looks unlikely to happen on this committee without “a shock or a run of weak data that suddenly shifts the consensus to where they move faster.”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Make-or-Break Moment That Will Determine the Economy's Fate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Make-or-Break Moment That Will Determine the Economy's Fate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-22 10:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>There&#39;s a saying that economic expansions don&#39;t die of old age: They&#39;re murdered by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spent the past two years determined to beat inflation even if it resulted in recession. Now he&#39;s on the brink of winning the battle without bringing down the economy, but the next few months will be crucial.</p><p>If he succeeds and maneuvers the economy to a soft landing that brings inflation down without a big rise in unemployment, it&#39;ll be a historic achievement worthy of the central banking Hall of Fame. If he fails, the economy will slide into recession anyway under the weight of higher interest rates -- and he&#39;ll have proved the old maxim about the Fed.</p><p>Powell and his colleagues have signaled in recent weeks that they&#39;re ready to start cutting rates when they next meet in September, with price pressures now easing but the jobs market cooling. That&#39;s put attention on how fast officials should bring down rates from a two-decade high.</p><p>For Powell, the last phase of the Fed&#39;s inflation fight marks a make-or-break moment. How he plans his approach will loom over the central bank&#39;s annual conference in Wyoming&#39;s Grand Teton National Park this week, including during a widely anticipated speech on Friday.</p><p>When Powell spoke there two years ago amid doubts over the Fed&#39;s conviction to bring down inflation, he delivered a somber promise. He signaled his readiness to accept a recession as the price of curing high inflation by invoking the example of former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, the Fed famously ratcheted rates to very high levels and put the economy through a wrenching downturn that ultimately tamed high prices.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b36a2f1029bc40f9fd8e9c27c081aa7f\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>The Fed under Powell also raised rates rapidly, in 2022 and 2023. Still, Powell has held on to the possibility that the Fed might be able to avoid a recession this time around because the inflation of 2021-23 was different from the 1970s episode.</p><p>For Fed officials, sticking a soft landing would offer the ultimate redemption. Three years ago, they had incorrectly predicted inflation would be short lived. Success would illustrate that the costs of being slow to end aggressive stimulus policies in 2021 weren&#39;t as disastrous as many critics warned.</p><p>&#34;It would be the finest moment in their history,&#34; said Dario Perkins, an economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. &#34;They could say, &#39;We not only prevented this 1970s runaway-inflation scenario, but we&#39;ve managed to do it with no meaningful cost to the economy -- this perfect soft landing.&#39;&#34;</p><p>In doing so, Powell has the chance to emulate two of his heroes. A successful outcome would marry the fortitude of Volcker with the deftness of Alan Greenspan, who as Fed chair in the late 1990s resisted calls to slow the economy amid a boom that yielded little inflation.</p><p><strong>&#39;Bad karma&#39;</strong></p><p>Powell is navigating against the backdrop of a divisive election campaign, and the Fed&#39;s decisions could shape the economy the next president inherits.</p><p>Democrats including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have criticized Powell for not having cut rates sooner. They make no secret they&#39;ll blame any economic downturn on Powell.</p><p>Donald Trump, who appointed Powell as chair in 2018, says he wants a greater say in interest-rate policy if he recaptures the presidency this fall. A recession could embolden the GOP nominee in his quest to mold the institution to his liking.</p><p>Much could still go wrong, something Powell knows well. Slamming into or skidding off the runway is something the mild-mannered Fed chair has said keeps him up at night. Powell, 71, refrains from using the &#34;soft landing&#34; term, according to people who have worked or spoken with him, to avoid sounding like he has counted his chickens before they hatch. Instead, he&#39;ll refer to it obliquely as &#34;the good outcome&#34; or &#34;that thing we all want.&#34;</p><p>He&#39;s not alone. &#34;I try not to use the phrase. It&#39;s bad karma,&#34; said Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, in an interview last week.</p><p>The Fed chief -- who after college traveled through Europe with his guitar, serenading patrons at a Paris cafe with Hank Williams ballads including &#34;I&#39;m So Lonesome I Could Cry&#34; -- said recently he and his wife have stopped dining at restaurants. &#34;People at the next table are always listening,&#34; he told a lunchtime audience of a few hundred businesspeople in Washington last month.</p><p><strong>The economic script has flipped</strong></p><p>Worries about the labor market have raised questions about how quickly to cut rates.</p><p>Inflation has fallen to around 2.5% from above 7% two years ago, not far from the Fed&#39;s 2% target. But the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in July from 3.7% at the beginning of the year. While that&#39;s a historically low level, it won&#39;t necessarily stay there. Usually when the unemployment rate starts rising a little bit, it subsequently rises by a lot. That line of thinking argues for lowering rates with reasonable speed.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5febaa9ad5594c333838f37335ce4bf1\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"653\"/></p><p>Yet some officials are nervous that rate cuts will stoke new price pressures that jeopardize their hard-won gains.</p><p>The U.S. economy has defied rolling predictions of imminent recession, powering through higher rates over the last two years. Now evidence is gathering that unique buffers that shielded the economy so far, including pandemic-era savings cushions and an immigration surge that boosted spending, could be fading along several fronts.</p><p>Low- and middle-income consumers&#39; budgets are showing strains. More companies say they&#39;re focusing again on keeping costs down to attract deal-conscious shoppers.</p><p>The U.S. housing sector, which avoided a downturn that usually occurs when interest rates rise sharply, faces a bleak outlook. Today&#39;s pool of would-be buyers have weaker income and wealth profiles than those who stepped up to buy homes when mortgage rates first soared above 6% two years ago.</p><p>Many homeowners have held their homes off the market, which initially limited competition for home builders. That&#39;s ending now as inventories are rising. Meanwhile, an apartment building boom that kept construction workers on job sites is over. The number of housing units under construction has fallen nearly 10% over the past year, the largest such decline since 2011.</p><p>In the labor market, companies have slowed hiring. For now, layoffs are low. But what looks like a controlled demolition of labor demand risks moving past a tipping point. The Labor Department said Wednesday that payroll growth for the 12 months ending in March could be revised down to 2.1 million jobs from an initially reported figure of nearly three million jobs, meaning job gains for most of 2023 and the first three months of this year were milder.</p><p>&#34;If job openings fall a lot more, people who lose their jobs are not going to be able to walk across the street and find work,&#34; said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.</p><p><strong>Sticking the landing</strong></p><p>Many downturns look like soft landings at first, but since World War II, the U.S. has convincingly achieved only one, in 1995. Back then, Greenspan attempted to pre-empt inflationary pressures by raising rates rapidly, from 3% to 6%. He then reversed course and over six months cut rates to 5.25%.</p><p>Whether Powell manages the feat depends not only on whether the economy is weakening under the surface faster but also whether lower rates can spur new borrowing and spending to counteract any softness.</p><p>Investors are optimistic because the Fed has plenty of room to cut. Still, some borrowers could face a squeeze from the lagged effects of the Fed&#39;s past hikes even after the central bank reduces borrowing costs.</p><p>That&#39;s because borrowers enjoyed more than a decade of historically very low borrowing costs before the Fed started raising rates, and many firms and households still have low fixed-rate debt. If that debt matures in the next year, they could face a sizable increase in borrowing costs even if the Fed cuts rates by a full percentage point.</p><p>A soft landing seems tantalizingly close because the economy so far has hewed closer to an optimistic scenario Fed officials outlined two years ago.</p><p>When officials began lifting rates from near zero in 2022, prominent economists said a period of higher unemployment was almost required to create enough slack -- such as unemployed workers and idled factories -- to lower prices. They argued inflation was being driven by overheated labor markets.</p><p>Fed leaders said another path was possible because inflation had been driven not by the labor market but by the collision between strong demand and discombobulated supply chains. They suggested the labor market was so out of whack after the pandemic, as reopening businesses scrambled to hire workers, that cooling demand might lead firms to simply scrap unfilled openings rather than fire workers.</p><p>Good luck has played a part in that outcome. Supply chains healed last year. The economy avoided new shocks, such as a sharp rise in oil prices or a financial-market blowup. And a surge in immigration boosted output while alleviating worker shortages. &#34;We know more now about where this [inflation] came from because we can see what made it go away,&#34; Powell told lawmakers last month.</p><p>Earlier this year, as economists puzzled over why interest rates hadn&#39;t done more to slow the economy, Powell suggested that the immigration surge might have masked the effects of tight interest-rate policy. His underlying concern was that the effects of restrictive policy would reveal themselves gradually and then suddenly.</p><p><strong>&#39;What&#39;s the rush?&#39; vs. &#39;Why are we waiting?&#39;</strong></p><p>Inside the Fed, the economic uncertainty threatens to end a period of unanimity that is remarkable even for a committee that prizes consensus. No Fed officials have dissented at a policy meeting since June 2022, matching a streak last seen between 2003 and 2005.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b3556625057d6f2222b1979c0a34f0d\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p>One camp that includes Fed governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid worries cutting rates too soon will reignite inflation or allow it to settle out closer to 3%—well above their target. With the unemployment rate at a historically low level, this group has argued, “What’s the rush?”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This group has also reacted skeptically to pessimism about the labor market. They point to how the recent uptick in the unemployment rate has been driven by temporary and not permanent layoffs along with an increase in the number of people entering the job market. They think interest rates are only moderately restrictive, meaning the Fed may not need to cut rates very much.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Another camp is more anxious about growing too complacent about the slowdown in labor demand. Inflation-adjusted interest rates are at their highest level in decades, and these officials are asking, “Why are we waiting?”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“In regular business cycles, unemployment goes up like a rocket but comes down like a feather,” said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview. While the current cycle might be unusual, “it’s at least a note of caution that the job market has been cooling. It needs to stop cooling.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Many are ready to start cutting rates by a traditional quarter-percentage-point next month but aren’t sure how fast they should go thereafter. At issue is the question over how far rates currently sit above a “neutral” setting that neither spurs nor slows activity.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the September meeting, Fed officials will have to fill out their projections for interest rates for the next three years. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is dreading it because he’s so uncertain “about how tight policy is right now,” he said in an interview.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Barkin said he and his Richmond Fed staff canvass hundreds of businesses to see if demand is weakening and whether they are preparing to lay off workers as a result. He isn’t seeing it outside of a few narrow sectors. “You can make mistakes by moving too aggressively or not aggressively enough,” he said.</p><p>Broadly speaking, the Fed faces two paths for the coming months. Under one, officials could cut rates by a quarter-point at each of their next few meetings and then dial up or down the size and speed of reductions depending on how the economy fares early next year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the economy enters a sharper slowdown, they could cut rates in larger half-point increments to get interest rates closer to 3% by next spring. (The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently set between 5.25% and 5.5%.)</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Powell is likely to keep his options open when he speaks this week. Labor market data for August, to be released early next month, could tip the scales in favor of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July’s readings.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The reason you move gradually as a central banker is it gives you optionality,” said Goolsbee. “The downside of gradualism is that when things move, you don’t have that luxury anymore.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A handful of private-sector and former Fed economists, including at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, say evidence that the labor market might be weakening too much should lead officials to make larger rate cuts upfront, shedding their longstanding preference for gradualism.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“They’ve got a lot of wood to chop, and they need to get going. But it’s a very consensus-driven place, and they don’t have the consensus yet to do that,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. That looks unlikely to happen on this committee without “a shock or a run of weak data that suddenly shifts the consensus to where they move faster.”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2461381090","content_text":"By Nick TimiraosThere's a saying that economic expansions don't die of old age: They're murdered by the Federal Reserve.Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spent the past two years determined to beat inflation even if it resulted in recession. Now he's on the brink of winning the battle without bringing down the economy, but the next few months will be crucial.If he succeeds and maneuvers the economy to a soft landing that brings inflation down without a big rise in unemployment, it'll be a historic achievement worthy of the central banking Hall of Fame. If he fails, the economy will slide into recession anyway under the weight of higher interest rates -- and he'll have proved the old maxim about the Fed.Powell and his colleagues have signaled in recent weeks that they're ready to start cutting rates when they next meet in September, with price pressures now easing but the jobs market cooling. That's put attention on how fast officials should bring down rates from a two-decade high.For Powell, the last phase of the Fed's inflation fight marks a make-or-break moment. How he plans his approach will loom over the central bank's annual conference in Wyoming's Grand Teton National Park this week, including during a widely anticipated speech on Friday.When Powell spoke there two years ago amid doubts over the Fed's conviction to bring down inflation, he delivered a somber promise. He signaled his readiness to accept a recession as the price of curing high inflation by invoking the example of former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, the Fed famously ratcheted rates to very high levels and put the economy through a wrenching downturn that ultimately tamed high prices.The Fed under Powell also raised rates rapidly, in 2022 and 2023. Still, Powell has held on to the possibility that the Fed might be able to avoid a recession this time around because the inflation of 2021-23 was different from the 1970s episode.For Fed officials, sticking a soft landing would offer the ultimate redemption. Three years ago, they had incorrectly predicted inflation would be short lived. Success would illustrate that the costs of being slow to end aggressive stimulus policies in 2021 weren't as disastrous as many critics warned.\"It would be the finest moment in their history,\" said Dario Perkins, an economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. \"They could say, 'We not only prevented this 1970s runaway-inflation scenario, but we've managed to do it with no meaningful cost to the economy -- this perfect soft landing.'\"In doing so, Powell has the chance to emulate two of his heroes. A successful outcome would marry the fortitude of Volcker with the deftness of Alan Greenspan, who as Fed chair in the late 1990s resisted calls to slow the economy amid a boom that yielded little inflation.'Bad karma'Powell is navigating against the backdrop of a divisive election campaign, and the Fed's decisions could shape the economy the next president inherits.Democrats including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have criticized Powell for not having cut rates sooner. They make no secret they'll blame any economic downturn on Powell.Donald Trump, who appointed Powell as chair in 2018, says he wants a greater say in interest-rate policy if he recaptures the presidency this fall. A recession could embolden the GOP nominee in his quest to mold the institution to his liking.Much could still go wrong, something Powell knows well. Slamming into or skidding off the runway is something the mild-mannered Fed chair has said keeps him up at night. Powell, 71, refrains from using the \"soft landing\" term, according to people who have worked or spoken with him, to avoid sounding like he has counted his chickens before they hatch. Instead, he'll refer to it obliquely as \"the good outcome\" or \"that thing we all want.\"He's not alone. \"I try not to use the phrase. It's bad karma,\" said Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, in an interview last week.The Fed chief -- who after college traveled through Europe with his guitar, serenading patrons at a Paris cafe with Hank Williams ballads including \"I'm So Lonesome I Could Cry\" -- said recently he and his wife have stopped dining at restaurants. \"People at the next table are always listening,\" he told a lunchtime audience of a few hundred businesspeople in Washington last month.The economic script has flippedWorries about the labor market have raised questions about how quickly to cut rates.Inflation has fallen to around 2.5% from above 7% two years ago, not far from the Fed's 2% target. But the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in July from 3.7% at the beginning of the year. While that's a historically low level, it won't necessarily stay there. Usually when the unemployment rate starts rising a little bit, it subsequently rises by a lot. That line of thinking argues for lowering rates with reasonable speed.Yet some officials are nervous that rate cuts will stoke new price pressures that jeopardize their hard-won gains.The U.S. economy has defied rolling predictions of imminent recession, powering through higher rates over the last two years. Now evidence is gathering that unique buffers that shielded the economy so far, including pandemic-era savings cushions and an immigration surge that boosted spending, could be fading along several fronts.Low- and middle-income consumers' budgets are showing strains. More companies say they're focusing again on keeping costs down to attract deal-conscious shoppers.The U.S. housing sector, which avoided a downturn that usually occurs when interest rates rise sharply, faces a bleak outlook. Today's pool of would-be buyers have weaker income and wealth profiles than those who stepped up to buy homes when mortgage rates first soared above 6% two years ago.Many homeowners have held their homes off the market, which initially limited competition for home builders. That's ending now as inventories are rising. Meanwhile, an apartment building boom that kept construction workers on job sites is over. The number of housing units under construction has fallen nearly 10% over the past year, the largest such decline since 2011.In the labor market, companies have slowed hiring. For now, layoffs are low. But what looks like a controlled demolition of labor demand risks moving past a tipping point. The Labor Department said Wednesday that payroll growth for the 12 months ending in March could be revised down to 2.1 million jobs from an initially reported figure of nearly three million jobs, meaning job gains for most of 2023 and the first three months of this year were milder.\"If job openings fall a lot more, people who lose their jobs are not going to be able to walk across the street and find work,\" said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.Sticking the landingMany downturns look like soft landings at first, but since World War II, the U.S. has convincingly achieved only one, in 1995. Back then, Greenspan attempted to pre-empt inflationary pressures by raising rates rapidly, from 3% to 6%. He then reversed course and over six months cut rates to 5.25%.Whether Powell manages the feat depends not only on whether the economy is weakening under the surface faster but also whether lower rates can spur new borrowing and spending to counteract any softness.Investors are optimistic because the Fed has plenty of room to cut. Still, some borrowers could face a squeeze from the lagged effects of the Fed's past hikes even after the central bank reduces borrowing costs.That's because borrowers enjoyed more than a decade of historically very low borrowing costs before the Fed started raising rates, and many firms and households still have low fixed-rate debt. If that debt matures in the next year, they could face a sizable increase in borrowing costs even if the Fed cuts rates by a full percentage point.A soft landing seems tantalizingly close because the economy so far has hewed closer to an optimistic scenario Fed officials outlined two years ago.When officials began lifting rates from near zero in 2022, prominent economists said a period of higher unemployment was almost required to create enough slack -- such as unemployed workers and idled factories -- to lower prices. They argued inflation was being driven by overheated labor markets.Fed leaders said another path was possible because inflation had been driven not by the labor market but by the collision between strong demand and discombobulated supply chains. They suggested the labor market was so out of whack after the pandemic, as reopening businesses scrambled to hire workers, that cooling demand might lead firms to simply scrap unfilled openings rather than fire workers.Good luck has played a part in that outcome. Supply chains healed last year. The economy avoided new shocks, such as a sharp rise in oil prices or a financial-market blowup. And a surge in immigration boosted output while alleviating worker shortages. \"We know more now about where this [inflation] came from because we can see what made it go away,\" Powell told lawmakers last month.Earlier this year, as economists puzzled over why interest rates hadn't done more to slow the economy, Powell suggested that the immigration surge might have masked the effects of tight interest-rate policy. His underlying concern was that the effects of restrictive policy would reveal themselves gradually and then suddenly.'What's the rush?' vs. 'Why are we waiting?'Inside the Fed, the economic uncertainty threatens to end a period of unanimity that is remarkable even for a committee that prizes consensus. No Fed officials have dissented at a policy meeting since June 2022, matching a streak last seen between 2003 and 2005.One camp that includes Fed governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid worries cutting rates too soon will reignite inflation or allow it to settle out closer to 3%—well above their target. With the unemployment rate at a historically low level, this group has argued, “What’s the rush?”This group has also reacted skeptically to pessimism about the labor market. They point to how the recent uptick in the unemployment rate has been driven by temporary and not permanent layoffs along with an increase in the number of people entering the job market. They think interest rates are only moderately restrictive, meaning the Fed may not need to cut rates very much.Another camp is more anxious about growing too complacent about the slowdown in labor demand. Inflation-adjusted interest rates are at their highest level in decades, and these officials are asking, “Why are we waiting?”“In regular business cycles, unemployment goes up like a rocket but comes down like a feather,” said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview. While the current cycle might be unusual, “it’s at least a note of caution that the job market has been cooling. It needs to stop cooling.”Many are ready to start cutting rates by a traditional quarter-percentage-point next month but aren’t sure how fast they should go thereafter. At issue is the question over how far rates currently sit above a “neutral” setting that neither spurs nor slows activity.At the September meeting, Fed officials will have to fill out their projections for interest rates for the next three years. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is dreading it because he’s so uncertain “about how tight policy is right now,” he said in an interview.Barkin said he and his Richmond Fed staff canvass hundreds of businesses to see if demand is weakening and whether they are preparing to lay off workers as a result. He isn’t seeing it outside of a few narrow sectors. “You can make mistakes by moving too aggressively or not aggressively enough,” he said.Broadly speaking, the Fed faces two paths for the coming months. Under one, officials could cut rates by a quarter-point at each of their next few meetings and then dial up or down the size and speed of reductions depending on how the economy fares early next year.If the economy enters a sharper slowdown, they could cut rates in larger half-point increments to get interest rates closer to 3% by next spring. (The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently set between 5.25% and 5.5%.)Powell is likely to keep his options open when he speaks this week. Labor market data for August, to be released early next month, could tip the scales in favor of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July’s readings.“The reason you move gradually as a central banker is it gives you optionality,” said Goolsbee. “The downside of gradualism is that when things move, you don’t have that luxury anymore.”A handful of private-sector and former Fed economists, including at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, say evidence that the labor market might be weakening too much should lead officials to make larger rate cuts upfront, shedding their longstanding preference for gradualism.“They’ve got a lot of wood to chop, and they need to get going. But it’s a very consensus-driven place, and they don’t have the consensus yet to do that,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. That looks unlikely to happen on this committee without “a shock or a run of weak data that suddenly shifts the consensus to where they move faster.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329206390882352,"gmtCreate":1721378272347,"gmtModify":1721379768805,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AUR\">$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AUR\">$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329206390882352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":288902389424368,"gmtCreate":1711557357376,"gmtModify":1711557671353,"author":{"id":"4173611969622712","authorId":"4173611969622712","name":"Gleneagles","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173611969622712","authorIdStr":"4173611969622712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/288902389424368","repostId":"288870885515400","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":288870885515400,"gmtCreate":1711549575807,"gmtModify":1711549579597,"author":{"id":"3561088065415396","authorId":"3561088065415396","name":"Henryee18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68e1124a4989ce380d6aa143a07b2620","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561088065415396","authorIdStr":"3561088065415396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RDDT\">$Reddit(RDDT)$</a> Not for ordinary investors. For me the fundamental is not really strong and I will not invest in this \"meme\" stock... Anymore 🥲","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RDDT\">$Reddit(RDDT)$</a> Not for ordinary investors. For me the fundamental is not really strong and I will not invest in this \"meme\" stock... Anymore 🥲","text":"$Reddit(RDDT)$ Not for ordinary investors. For me the fundamental is not really strong and I will not invest in this \"meme\" stock... Anymore 🥲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/288870885515400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}