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12-16
You appear to be in the minority then.
SoFi Stock Is A Steal At Its Current Price
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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","listText":"You appear to be in the minority then. ","text":"You appear to be in the minority then.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382131986911248","repostId":"1158495602","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158495602","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734319637,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158495602?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-16 11:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi Stock Is A Steal At Its Current Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158495602","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As always, let's start with discussing the latest earnings report.SoFi's membership grew 35% YoY to ~9.4 million, with 756,000 new members added during Q3 - that growth was supported by a 31% YoY rise in total products to 13.7 million, \"driven by strong cross-buying between members.\" Impressively, 32% of new products were accessed by members who already signed up for SoFi, showing just how successful SoFi's multichannel approach was.SOFI's Q3 IR materialsSales per product also grew 52% YoY , ref","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1839103127\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I reiterate a "Buy" rating for SoFi Technologies due to its strong growth potential, combining traditional finance with fintech innovation, despite recent stock volatility.</p></li><li><p>SoFi's impressive Q3 performance includes 35% YoY member growth, 30% revenue increase, and significant contributions from Financial Services and Tech Platform segments.</p></li><li><p>Analysts' upward revisions and management's optimistic guidance suggest SoFi's continued outperformance, potentially leading to a fair value of $22.8/share, implying a 43.4% upside.</p></li><li><p>Risks include potential net interest margin compression from secured loans and the assumption of consistent outperformance, but SoFi's diversified, innovative approach supports long-term profitability.</p></li><li><p>I believe the stock may be still looking like a "steal" for growth investors after the massive rally.</p></li><li><p>I am Danil Sereda, chief investment officer at a family office. I analyze information that ordinary retail investors do not have access to, and lead the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54dd38663d88b6dfc9bb85067da0dbd0\" alt=\"Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\" title=\"Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3104001345\">Intro & Thesis</h2><p>I initiated coverage of SoFi Technologies, Inc. in January 2023 with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's long-term growth potential through the synergistic effect of combining traditional finance and banking activities with fintech innovation. Since then, the stock has been highly volatile. However, as it dropped from $10 to around $6–$7 per share, I remained bullish. This approach proved worthwhile, as the stock's most recent rally brought an increase of over 100% since late September, and nearly 200% from my very first bullish rating:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d61c56852256e4f35c59953ea2d8af4\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, the author's coverage of SOFI\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, the author's coverage of SOFI\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, the author's coverage of SOFI</span></p><p>SoFi Technologies stock is showing incredibly strong momentum, outperforming the sector median by a significant margin. While its valuation may seem alarming at first glance, I believe the situation isn't as dire as it appears. If we factor in the likelihood that SOFI may continue exceeding consensus estimates, as it has consistently done in past quarters, the current valuation could actually be lower than its fair value. So in my view, the ongoing rally still has room to run, and the stock is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the medium term.</p><h2 id=\"id_3673521691\">Why Do I Think So?</h2><p>As always, let's start with discussing the latest earnings report.</p><p>SoFi's membership grew 35% YoY to ~9.4 million, with 756,000 new members added during Q3 - that growth was supported by a 31% YoY rise in total products to 13.7 million, "driven by strong cross-buying between members." Impressively, 32% of new products were accessed by members who already signed up for SoFi, showing just how successful SoFi's multichannel approach was.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d28c1f93173aa8a028a35b75935ac6d5\" alt=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" title=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span>SOFI's Q3 IR materials</span></p><p>Sales per product also grew 52% YoY (up to $81), reflecting better monetization across the platform. So as a result, the firm's adjusted net revenue reached $689 million (up 30% YoY), which is its 17th straight quarter of record revenues. SOFI achieved this increase based on a solid performance in all 3 of its segments.</p><p>Notably, the Financial Services unit saw a 102% YoY revenue increase and contributed $238 million to the top line - this segment now makes up more than a 1/3 of SoFi's overall revenue, so the company's move toward capital-free, fee-based revenue proves to be working. As the Q3 earnings call discussion revealed, the FS's growth was "supported by the increased deposit volume, higher member spending, and rapid growth of the Loan Platform Business." The latter – which brought in $56 million in fee-based revenue in the quarter – allows SoFi to scale its business without incurring additional balance sheet risk. Through originating loans for third parties, SoFi can monetize a wider array of borrowers while remaining capital-light. It is already poised to be a $1 billion annualized revenue producer, and partners such as Fortress (who recently reached a $2 billion deal with SoFi) are demanding it.</p><p>The Tech Platform was also solid, with $103 million in net revenue, up 14% from a year ago. The Tech Platform division with Galileo and Technisys continues to be a mainstay of SoFi's long-term growth plans. The platform now has ~160 million accounts (up 17% YoY) and is quickly becoming popular with banks, fintech, and consumer brands attempting to upgrade their infrastructure (based on Morningstar Premium analysts' commentary, proprietary source). Recent Latin America and U.S. wins, along with new products such as the Galileo Instant Verification Engine (GIVE), prove that the platform is capable of driving innovation and growth in the addressable market, in my opinion. Revenue growth here has been less robust than Financial Services, but the pipeline looks healthy and the management expects it to remain strong as more clients start utilizing SoFi's offerings.</p><p>Lending, SoFi's largest and oldest business, added 14% to $392 million in adjusted net revenue in Q3 FY2024. Actually, SoFi closed out the quarter with a record-breaking $6.3 billion in loan originations, up 23% from the previous year. Personal loans (~$4.9 billion) increased 26% YoY "due to high demand and improved credit conditions." Volume for home loans also continued to do well, rising 38% YoY to $490 million as lower interest rates boosted refinancing activity. SoFi's focus on high-quality borrowers (an average FICO score of 746 for personal loans and 765 for student loans) has helped to reduce credit risk and improve portfolio performance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7c4cc6e89d16192aa8d98e9e729b0c0c\" alt=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" title=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\"/><span>SOFI's Q3 IR materials</span></p><p>So SoFi Technologies exceeded analysts' consensus expectations for Q3, outperforming EPS estimates by approximately 25% (instead of the projected $0.04/share, the company reported $0.05/share). Additionally, revenue came in significantly higher than anticipated, prompting 7 out of 10 analysts to raise their estimates for Q4 2024:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e4d2762af0ccf6bd0b00390a9881eb09\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI's notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI's notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"119\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, SOFI's notes added</span></p><p>The upward revisions actually followed SoFi management's guidance revisions to the upside: they're now predicting adjusted net revenue of $2.535-2.550 billion (compared with $2.425-2.465 billion in the previous quarter). The adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $640 and $645 million at a 25% margin (I forgot to mention - the Q3 EBITDA margin was 27%). For Q4 in particular, the company expects strong growth in all lines of business, especially Financial Services and Lending, "as interest rates level out and refinancing requests continue to grow." In the long run, SoFi is looking forward to being "1 one of the 10 financial institutions" by taking advantage of its core strength of a digital-first, holistic financial services solution.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6e151d9ce6c5c9b3955c7eb266c72a65\" alt=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" title=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"/><span>SOFI's Q3 IR materials</span></p><p>Based on the recent unit economics metrics, I believe the management's ambitious plan is progressing along the right trajectory. The execution of their objectives has been solid and effective. So in my opinion, the recent shift in analyst consensus forecasts highlights the significant growth potential of SoFi Technologies' business. I'm writing this with relative confidence because, when examining how analysts' forecasts for the company's EPS have evolved over the past 3-6 months, we see a significant upward revision for FY2024-2025, but projections for the next 3-6 years actually show a decline:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f6e61ee2f405ce9d9f35ae89b6eeaac\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>This suggests to me that Wall Street analysts are focusing on a relatively short-term horizon and aren't fully considering the potential for sustained growth driven by current trends. Metrics such as member growth, average transaction value, improving credit quality, and the synergistic effects between the company's diverse offerings across various segments could fuel way longer-term expansion than currently priced-in. The actual consensus earnings beatings in the past quarters clearly demonstrated that - the 25% beat in EPS for Q3 was the least massive of the past 4 quarters:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e493dc7c3bd0204b1fccfd8bf298fcc8\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, SOFI</span></p><p>If we assume that over the next 2 years, SoFi consistently outperforms consensus by 20% annually, the current FY2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 57x would drop to ~40x by FY2025, and by FY2026, the stock could be trading at just 28x its earnings. At the same time, its growth EPS rates would be in high double-digits, and so effectively, its PEG ratios would fall well below 1x for FY2025/26.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5570e2c6d9c2f4078c4c5bd5386d0c30\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, SOFI</span></p><p>From this perspective, analyzing SoFi as a growth stock suggests that it's currently significantly undervalued (if my assumptions about the company's continued ability to exceed forecasts prove accurate).</p><p>So, if the stock trades at a forwarding PEG ratio of 1x by the of 2026 and its EPS for FY2025 is 20% higher than current estimates, my valuation model suggests a fair value of $22.8/share. This implies an upside potential of approximately 43.4% from the current stock price.</p><p>I agree that this is a fairly bullish forecast, but even if the stock trades at just 58x forward earnings (FY2026) and its EPS is only 10% higher than expected, the fair value would amount to ~$17.86/share. This represents an upside of approximately 12.35%. So even with more conservative assumptions, SoFi Technologies appears to be an undervalued stock at the moment - it's a "steal" for growth investors right away.</p><p>Hence, my "Buy" rating reiteration.</p><h2 id=\"id_3019204511\">Where Can I Be Wrong?</h2><p>Now is the time to discuss the risks.</p><p>First, SOFI's transition to lower-yielding secured loans is unlikely to be as risk-controlled and profit-boosting as it sounds. While I do think this approach will improve loan quality and lower credit risk, it might cause net interest margins (NIM) to compress over time: At low interest rates, or going further down, these secured loan yields will not yield enough returns to make up for the investment necessary to obtain and service them. So this could ultimately impede SoFi's ability to remain profitable and affect my expectations for future earnings growth.</p><p>My second potential flaw is assuming that SoFi will always outperform consensus estimates. While the company has done better than we expected in recent quarters, this doesn't mean that the trend will persist. We all know that market conditions are subject to fluctuations at a rapid pace, and factors outside the company such as economic slowdown, regulation changes, or new competition from traditional banks and fintechs may disrupt SoFi's growth trajectory. If such issues crop up, it will further dispel my assumption and overall bullish thesis that SoFi will continue to build on this momentum and hit the lofty revenue/EPS goals.</p><p>Please be cautious and make sure to do your own due diligence on the stock before doing anything - let other SA authors' articles help you with that.</p><h2 id=\"id_3591947645\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>Despite all the risks, SOFI's recent performance reflects a smart and well-enforced mix of diversification, innovation, and efficiencies that have allowed the company to continue operating even amid an unfriendly macro environment. The trend towards digital banking and the growing usage of embedded finance products further set the stage for SoFi's success, so with record-setting revenue, robust membership growth, and a proven roadmap for long-term profitability, the firm seems to be on the right track.</p><p>Boosted guidance, a strong growth pipeline, and improved market conditions place SoFi in a good position to provide long-term value to shareholders. I believe the stock may be over 40% undervalued today, still looking like a "steal" for growth investors after the massive rally we saw over the past few weeks.</p><p>Based on all that, I reiterate my "Buy" rating on SOFI today.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Stock Is A Steal At Its Current Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Stock Is A Steal At Its Current Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-16 11:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744235-sofi-stock-is-a-steal-at-its-current-price><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI reiterate a \"Buy\" rating for SoFi Technologies due to its strong growth potential, combining traditional finance with fintech innovation, despite recent stock volatility.SoFi's impressive Q3 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744235-sofi-stock-is-a-steal-at-its-current-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744235-sofi-stock-is-a-steal-at-its-current-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158495602","content_text":"SummaryI reiterate a \"Buy\" rating for SoFi Technologies due to its strong growth potential, combining traditional finance with fintech innovation, despite recent stock volatility.SoFi's impressive Q3 performance includes 35% YoY member growth, 30% revenue increase, and significant contributions from Financial Services and Tech Platform segments.Analysts' upward revisions and management's optimistic guidance suggest SoFi's continued outperformance, potentially leading to a fair value of $22.8/share, implying a 43.4% upside.Risks include potential net interest margin compression from secured loans and the assumption of consistent outperformance, but SoFi's diversified, innovative approach supports long-term profitability.I believe the stock may be still looking like a \"steal\" for growth investors after the massive rally.I am Danil Sereda, chief investment officer at a family office. I analyze information that ordinary retail investors do not have access to, and lead the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing.Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntro & ThesisI initiated coverage of SoFi Technologies, Inc. in January 2023 with a \"Buy\" rating, highlighting the company's long-term growth potential through the synergistic effect of combining traditional finance and banking activities with fintech innovation. Since then, the stock has been highly volatile. However, as it dropped from $10 to around $6–$7 per share, I remained bullish. This approach proved worthwhile, as the stock's most recent rally brought an increase of over 100% since late September, and nearly 200% from my very first bullish rating:Seeking Alpha, the author's coverage of SOFISoFi Technologies stock is showing incredibly strong momentum, outperforming the sector median by a significant margin. While its valuation may seem alarming at first glance, I believe the situation isn't as dire as it appears. If we factor in the likelihood that SOFI may continue exceeding consensus estimates, as it has consistently done in past quarters, the current valuation could actually be lower than its fair value. So in my view, the ongoing rally still has room to run, and the stock is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the medium term.Why Do I Think So?As always, let's start with discussing the latest earnings report.SoFi's membership grew 35% YoY to ~9.4 million, with 756,000 new members added during Q3 - that growth was supported by a 31% YoY rise in total products to 13.7 million, \"driven by strong cross-buying between members.\" Impressively, 32% of new products were accessed by members who already signed up for SoFi, showing just how successful SoFi's multichannel approach was.SOFI's Q3 IR materialsSales per product also grew 52% YoY (up to $81), reflecting better monetization across the platform. So as a result, the firm's adjusted net revenue reached $689 million (up 30% YoY), which is its 17th straight quarter of record revenues. SOFI achieved this increase based on a solid performance in all 3 of its segments.Notably, the Financial Services unit saw a 102% YoY revenue increase and contributed $238 million to the top line - this segment now makes up more than a 1/3 of SoFi's overall revenue, so the company's move toward capital-free, fee-based revenue proves to be working. As the Q3 earnings call discussion revealed, the FS's growth was \"supported by the increased deposit volume, higher member spending, and rapid growth of the Loan Platform Business.\" The latter – which brought in $56 million in fee-based revenue in the quarter – allows SoFi to scale its business without incurring additional balance sheet risk. Through originating loans for third parties, SoFi can monetize a wider array of borrowers while remaining capital-light. It is already poised to be a $1 billion annualized revenue producer, and partners such as Fortress (who recently reached a $2 billion deal with SoFi) are demanding it.The Tech Platform was also solid, with $103 million in net revenue, up 14% from a year ago. The Tech Platform division with Galileo and Technisys continues to be a mainstay of SoFi's long-term growth plans. The platform now has ~160 million accounts (up 17% YoY) and is quickly becoming popular with banks, fintech, and consumer brands attempting to upgrade their infrastructure (based on Morningstar Premium analysts' commentary, proprietary source). Recent Latin America and U.S. wins, along with new products such as the Galileo Instant Verification Engine (GIVE), prove that the platform is capable of driving innovation and growth in the addressable market, in my opinion. Revenue growth here has been less robust than Financial Services, but the pipeline looks healthy and the management expects it to remain strong as more clients start utilizing SoFi's offerings.Lending, SoFi's largest and oldest business, added 14% to $392 million in adjusted net revenue in Q3 FY2024. Actually, SoFi closed out the quarter with a record-breaking $6.3 billion in loan originations, up 23% from the previous year. Personal loans (~$4.9 billion) increased 26% YoY \"due to high demand and improved credit conditions.\" Volume for home loans also continued to do well, rising 38% YoY to $490 million as lower interest rates boosted refinancing activity. SoFi's focus on high-quality borrowers (an average FICO score of 746 for personal loans and 765 for student loans) has helped to reduce credit risk and improve portfolio performance.SOFI's Q3 IR materialsSo SoFi Technologies exceeded analysts' consensus expectations for Q3, outperforming EPS estimates by approximately 25% (instead of the projected $0.04/share, the company reported $0.05/share). Additionally, revenue came in significantly higher than anticipated, prompting 7 out of 10 analysts to raise their estimates for Q4 2024:Seeking Alpha, SOFI's notes addedThe upward revisions actually followed SoFi management's guidance revisions to the upside: they're now predicting adjusted net revenue of $2.535-2.550 billion (compared with $2.425-2.465 billion in the previous quarter). The adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $640 and $645 million at a 25% margin (I forgot to mention - the Q3 EBITDA margin was 27%). For Q4 in particular, the company expects strong growth in all lines of business, especially Financial Services and Lending, \"as interest rates level out and refinancing requests continue to grow.\" In the long run, SoFi is looking forward to being \"1 one of the 10 financial institutions\" by taking advantage of its core strength of a digital-first, holistic financial services solution.SOFI's Q3 IR materialsBased on the recent unit economics metrics, I believe the management's ambitious plan is progressing along the right trajectory. The execution of their objectives has been solid and effective. So in my opinion, the recent shift in analyst consensus forecasts highlights the significant growth potential of SoFi Technologies' business. I'm writing this with relative confidence because, when examining how analysts' forecasts for the company's EPS have evolved over the past 3-6 months, we see a significant upward revision for FY2024-2025, but projections for the next 3-6 years actually show a decline:Seeking AlphaThis suggests to me that Wall Street analysts are focusing on a relatively short-term horizon and aren't fully considering the potential for sustained growth driven by current trends. Metrics such as member growth, average transaction value, improving credit quality, and the synergistic effects between the company's diverse offerings across various segments could fuel way longer-term expansion than currently priced-in. The actual consensus earnings beatings in the past quarters clearly demonstrated that - the 25% beat in EPS for Q3 was the least massive of the past 4 quarters:Seeking Alpha, SOFIIf we assume that over the next 2 years, SoFi consistently outperforms consensus by 20% annually, the current FY2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 57x would drop to ~40x by FY2025, and by FY2026, the stock could be trading at just 28x its earnings. At the same time, its growth EPS rates would be in high double-digits, and so effectively, its PEG ratios would fall well below 1x for FY2025/26.Seeking Alpha, SOFIFrom this perspective, analyzing SoFi as a growth stock suggests that it's currently significantly undervalued (if my assumptions about the company's continued ability to exceed forecasts prove accurate).So, if the stock trades at a forwarding PEG ratio of 1x by the of 2026 and its EPS for FY2025 is 20% higher than current estimates, my valuation model suggests a fair value of $22.8/share. This implies an upside potential of approximately 43.4% from the current stock price.I agree that this is a fairly bullish forecast, but even if the stock trades at just 58x forward earnings (FY2026) and its EPS is only 10% higher than expected, the fair value would amount to ~$17.86/share. This represents an upside of approximately 12.35%. So even with more conservative assumptions, SoFi Technologies appears to be an undervalued stock at the moment - it's a \"steal\" for growth investors right away.Hence, my \"Buy\" rating reiteration.Where Can I Be Wrong?Now is the time to discuss the risks.First, SOFI's transition to lower-yielding secured loans is unlikely to be as risk-controlled and profit-boosting as it sounds. While I do think this approach will improve loan quality and lower credit risk, it might cause net interest margins (NIM) to compress over time: At low interest rates, or going further down, these secured loan yields will not yield enough returns to make up for the investment necessary to obtain and service them. So this could ultimately impede SoFi's ability to remain profitable and affect my expectations for future earnings growth.My second potential flaw is assuming that SoFi will always outperform consensus estimates. While the company has done better than we expected in recent quarters, this doesn't mean that the trend will persist. We all know that market conditions are subject to fluctuations at a rapid pace, and factors outside the company such as economic slowdown, regulation changes, or new competition from traditional banks and fintechs may disrupt SoFi's growth trajectory. If such issues crop up, it will further dispel my assumption and overall bullish thesis that SoFi will continue to build on this momentum and hit the lofty revenue/EPS goals.Please be cautious and make sure to do your own due diligence on the stock before doing anything - let other SA authors' articles help you with that.The Bottom LineDespite all the risks, SOFI's recent performance reflects a smart and well-enforced mix of diversification, innovation, and efficiencies that have allowed the company to continue operating even amid an unfriendly macro environment. The trend towards digital banking and the growing usage of embedded finance products further set the stage for SoFi's success, so with record-setting revenue, robust membership growth, and a proven roadmap for long-term profitability, the firm seems to be on the right track.Boosted guidance, a strong growth pipeline, and improved market conditions place SoFi in a good position to provide long-term value to shareholders. I believe the stock may be over 40% undervalued today, still looking like a \"steal\" for growth investors after the massive rally we saw over the past few weeks.Based on all that, I reiterate my \"Buy\" rating on SOFI today.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":382131986911248,"gmtCreate":1734325354432,"gmtModify":1734327174443,"author":{"id":"4173641873645392","authorId":"4173641873645392","name":"Map9000","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173641873645392","authorIdStr":"4173641873645392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You appear to be in the minority then. ","listText":"You appear to be in the minority then. ","text":"You appear to be in the minority then.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382131986911248","repostId":"1158495602","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158495602","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734319637,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158495602?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-16 11:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi Stock Is A Steal At Its Current Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158495602","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As always, let's start with discussing the latest earnings report.SoFi's membership grew 35% YoY to ~9.4 million, with 756,000 new members added during Q3 - that growth was supported by a 31% YoY rise in total products to 13.7 million, \"driven by strong cross-buying between members.\" Impressively, 32% of new products were accessed by members who already signed up for SoFi, showing just how successful SoFi's multichannel approach was.SOFI's Q3 IR materialsSales per product also grew 52% YoY , ref","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1839103127\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I reiterate a "Buy" rating for SoFi Technologies due to its strong growth potential, combining traditional finance with fintech innovation, despite recent stock volatility.</p></li><li><p>SoFi's impressive Q3 performance includes 35% YoY member growth, 30% revenue increase, and significant contributions from Financial Services and Tech Platform segments.</p></li><li><p>Analysts' upward revisions and management's optimistic guidance suggest SoFi's continued outperformance, potentially leading to a fair value of $22.8/share, implying a 43.4% upside.</p></li><li><p>Risks include potential net interest margin compression from secured loans and the assumption of consistent outperformance, but SoFi's diversified, innovative approach supports long-term profitability.</p></li><li><p>I believe the stock may be still looking like a "steal" for growth investors after the massive rally.</p></li><li><p>I am Danil Sereda, chief investment officer at a family office. I analyze information that ordinary retail investors do not have access to, and lead the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54dd38663d88b6dfc9bb85067da0dbd0\" alt=\"Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\" title=\"Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3104001345\">Intro & Thesis</h2><p>I initiated coverage of SoFi Technologies, Inc. in January 2023 with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's long-term growth potential through the synergistic effect of combining traditional finance and banking activities with fintech innovation. Since then, the stock has been highly volatile. However, as it dropped from $10 to around $6–$7 per share, I remained bullish. This approach proved worthwhile, as the stock's most recent rally brought an increase of over 100% since late September, and nearly 200% from my very first bullish rating:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d61c56852256e4f35c59953ea2d8af4\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, the author's coverage of SOFI\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, the author's coverage of SOFI\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, the author's coverage of SOFI</span></p><p>SoFi Technologies stock is showing incredibly strong momentum, outperforming the sector median by a significant margin. While its valuation may seem alarming at first glance, I believe the situation isn't as dire as it appears. If we factor in the likelihood that SOFI may continue exceeding consensus estimates, as it has consistently done in past quarters, the current valuation could actually be lower than its fair value. So in my view, the ongoing rally still has room to run, and the stock is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the medium term.</p><h2 id=\"id_3673521691\">Why Do I Think So?</h2><p>As always, let's start with discussing the latest earnings report.</p><p>SoFi's membership grew 35% YoY to ~9.4 million, with 756,000 new members added during Q3 - that growth was supported by a 31% YoY rise in total products to 13.7 million, "driven by strong cross-buying between members." Impressively, 32% of new products were accessed by members who already signed up for SoFi, showing just how successful SoFi's multichannel approach was.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d28c1f93173aa8a028a35b75935ac6d5\" alt=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" title=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span>SOFI's Q3 IR materials</span></p><p>Sales per product also grew 52% YoY (up to $81), reflecting better monetization across the platform. So as a result, the firm's adjusted net revenue reached $689 million (up 30% YoY), which is its 17th straight quarter of record revenues. SOFI achieved this increase based on a solid performance in all 3 of its segments.</p><p>Notably, the Financial Services unit saw a 102% YoY revenue increase and contributed $238 million to the top line - this segment now makes up more than a 1/3 of SoFi's overall revenue, so the company's move toward capital-free, fee-based revenue proves to be working. As the Q3 earnings call discussion revealed, the FS's growth was "supported by the increased deposit volume, higher member spending, and rapid growth of the Loan Platform Business." The latter – which brought in $56 million in fee-based revenue in the quarter – allows SoFi to scale its business without incurring additional balance sheet risk. Through originating loans for third parties, SoFi can monetize a wider array of borrowers while remaining capital-light. It is already poised to be a $1 billion annualized revenue producer, and partners such as Fortress (who recently reached a $2 billion deal with SoFi) are demanding it.</p><p>The Tech Platform was also solid, with $103 million in net revenue, up 14% from a year ago. The Tech Platform division with Galileo and Technisys continues to be a mainstay of SoFi's long-term growth plans. The platform now has ~160 million accounts (up 17% YoY) and is quickly becoming popular with banks, fintech, and consumer brands attempting to upgrade their infrastructure (based on Morningstar Premium analysts' commentary, proprietary source). Recent Latin America and U.S. wins, along with new products such as the Galileo Instant Verification Engine (GIVE), prove that the platform is capable of driving innovation and growth in the addressable market, in my opinion. Revenue growth here has been less robust than Financial Services, but the pipeline looks healthy and the management expects it to remain strong as more clients start utilizing SoFi's offerings.</p><p>Lending, SoFi's largest and oldest business, added 14% to $392 million in adjusted net revenue in Q3 FY2024. Actually, SoFi closed out the quarter with a record-breaking $6.3 billion in loan originations, up 23% from the previous year. Personal loans (~$4.9 billion) increased 26% YoY "due to high demand and improved credit conditions." Volume for home loans also continued to do well, rising 38% YoY to $490 million as lower interest rates boosted refinancing activity. SoFi's focus on high-quality borrowers (an average FICO score of 746 for personal loans and 765 for student loans) has helped to reduce credit risk and improve portfolio performance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7c4cc6e89d16192aa8d98e9e729b0c0c\" alt=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" title=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\"/><span>SOFI's Q3 IR materials</span></p><p>So SoFi Technologies exceeded analysts' consensus expectations for Q3, outperforming EPS estimates by approximately 25% (instead of the projected $0.04/share, the company reported $0.05/share). Additionally, revenue came in significantly higher than anticipated, prompting 7 out of 10 analysts to raise their estimates for Q4 2024:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e4d2762af0ccf6bd0b00390a9881eb09\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI's notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI's notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"119\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, SOFI's notes added</span></p><p>The upward revisions actually followed SoFi management's guidance revisions to the upside: they're now predicting adjusted net revenue of $2.535-2.550 billion (compared with $2.425-2.465 billion in the previous quarter). The adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $640 and $645 million at a 25% margin (I forgot to mention - the Q3 EBITDA margin was 27%). For Q4 in particular, the company expects strong growth in all lines of business, especially Financial Services and Lending, "as interest rates level out and refinancing requests continue to grow." In the long run, SoFi is looking forward to being "1 one of the 10 financial institutions" by taking advantage of its core strength of a digital-first, holistic financial services solution.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6e151d9ce6c5c9b3955c7eb266c72a65\" alt=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" title=\"SOFI's Q3 IR materials\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"/><span>SOFI's Q3 IR materials</span></p><p>Based on the recent unit economics metrics, I believe the management's ambitious plan is progressing along the right trajectory. The execution of their objectives has been solid and effective. So in my opinion, the recent shift in analyst consensus forecasts highlights the significant growth potential of SoFi Technologies' business. I'm writing this with relative confidence because, when examining how analysts' forecasts for the company's EPS have evolved over the past 3-6 months, we see a significant upward revision for FY2024-2025, but projections for the next 3-6 years actually show a decline:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f6e61ee2f405ce9d9f35ae89b6eeaac\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>This suggests to me that Wall Street analysts are focusing on a relatively short-term horizon and aren't fully considering the potential for sustained growth driven by current trends. Metrics such as member growth, average transaction value, improving credit quality, and the synergistic effects between the company's diverse offerings across various segments could fuel way longer-term expansion than currently priced-in. The actual consensus earnings beatings in the past quarters clearly demonstrated that - the 25% beat in EPS for Q3 was the least massive of the past 4 quarters:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e493dc7c3bd0204b1fccfd8bf298fcc8\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, SOFI</span></p><p>If we assume that over the next 2 years, SoFi consistently outperforms consensus by 20% annually, the current FY2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 57x would drop to ~40x by FY2025, and by FY2026, the stock could be trading at just 28x its earnings. At the same time, its growth EPS rates would be in high double-digits, and so effectively, its PEG ratios would fall well below 1x for FY2025/26.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5570e2c6d9c2f4078c4c5bd5386d0c30\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, SOFI\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, SOFI</span></p><p>From this perspective, analyzing SoFi as a growth stock suggests that it's currently significantly undervalued (if my assumptions about the company's continued ability to exceed forecasts prove accurate).</p><p>So, if the stock trades at a forwarding PEG ratio of 1x by the of 2026 and its EPS for FY2025 is 20% higher than current estimates, my valuation model suggests a fair value of $22.8/share. This implies an upside potential of approximately 43.4% from the current stock price.</p><p>I agree that this is a fairly bullish forecast, but even if the stock trades at just 58x forward earnings (FY2026) and its EPS is only 10% higher than expected, the fair value would amount to ~$17.86/share. This represents an upside of approximately 12.35%. So even with more conservative assumptions, SoFi Technologies appears to be an undervalued stock at the moment - it's a "steal" for growth investors right away.</p><p>Hence, my "Buy" rating reiteration.</p><h2 id=\"id_3019204511\">Where Can I Be Wrong?</h2><p>Now is the time to discuss the risks.</p><p>First, SOFI's transition to lower-yielding secured loans is unlikely to be as risk-controlled and profit-boosting as it sounds. While I do think this approach will improve loan quality and lower credit risk, it might cause net interest margins (NIM) to compress over time: At low interest rates, or going further down, these secured loan yields will not yield enough returns to make up for the investment necessary to obtain and service them. So this could ultimately impede SoFi's ability to remain profitable and affect my expectations for future earnings growth.</p><p>My second potential flaw is assuming that SoFi will always outperform consensus estimates. While the company has done better than we expected in recent quarters, this doesn't mean that the trend will persist. We all know that market conditions are subject to fluctuations at a rapid pace, and factors outside the company such as economic slowdown, regulation changes, or new competition from traditional banks and fintechs may disrupt SoFi's growth trajectory. If such issues crop up, it will further dispel my assumption and overall bullish thesis that SoFi will continue to build on this momentum and hit the lofty revenue/EPS goals.</p><p>Please be cautious and make sure to do your own due diligence on the stock before doing anything - let other SA authors' articles help you with that.</p><h2 id=\"id_3591947645\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>Despite all the risks, SOFI's recent performance reflects a smart and well-enforced mix of diversification, innovation, and efficiencies that have allowed the company to continue operating even amid an unfriendly macro environment. The trend towards digital banking and the growing usage of embedded finance products further set the stage for SoFi's success, so with record-setting revenue, robust membership growth, and a proven roadmap for long-term profitability, the firm seems to be on the right track.</p><p>Boosted guidance, a strong growth pipeline, and improved market conditions place SoFi in a good position to provide long-term value to shareholders. I believe the stock may be over 40% undervalued today, still looking like a "steal" for growth investors after the massive rally we saw over the past few weeks.</p><p>Based on all that, I reiterate my "Buy" rating on SOFI today.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Stock Is A Steal At Its Current Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Stock Is A Steal At Its Current Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-16 11:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744235-sofi-stock-is-a-steal-at-its-current-price><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI reiterate a \"Buy\" rating for SoFi Technologies due to its strong growth potential, combining traditional finance with fintech innovation, despite recent stock volatility.SoFi's impressive Q3 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744235-sofi-stock-is-a-steal-at-its-current-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744235-sofi-stock-is-a-steal-at-its-current-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158495602","content_text":"SummaryI reiterate a \"Buy\" rating for SoFi Technologies due to its strong growth potential, combining traditional finance with fintech innovation, despite recent stock volatility.SoFi's impressive Q3 performance includes 35% YoY member growth, 30% revenue increase, and significant contributions from Financial Services and Tech Platform segments.Analysts' upward revisions and management's optimistic guidance suggest SoFi's continued outperformance, potentially leading to a fair value of $22.8/share, implying a 43.4% upside.Risks include potential net interest margin compression from secured loans and the assumption of consistent outperformance, but SoFi's diversified, innovative approach supports long-term profitability.I believe the stock may be still looking like a \"steal\" for growth investors after the massive rally.I am Danil Sereda, chief investment officer at a family office. I analyze information that ordinary retail investors do not have access to, and lead the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing.Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntro & ThesisI initiated coverage of SoFi Technologies, Inc. in January 2023 with a \"Buy\" rating, highlighting the company's long-term growth potential through the synergistic effect of combining traditional finance and banking activities with fintech innovation. Since then, the stock has been highly volatile. However, as it dropped from $10 to around $6–$7 per share, I remained bullish. This approach proved worthwhile, as the stock's most recent rally brought an increase of over 100% since late September, and nearly 200% from my very first bullish rating:Seeking Alpha, the author's coverage of SOFISoFi Technologies stock is showing incredibly strong momentum, outperforming the sector median by a significant margin. While its valuation may seem alarming at first glance, I believe the situation isn't as dire as it appears. If we factor in the likelihood that SOFI may continue exceeding consensus estimates, as it has consistently done in past quarters, the current valuation could actually be lower than its fair value. So in my view, the ongoing rally still has room to run, and the stock is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the medium term.Why Do I Think So?As always, let's start with discussing the latest earnings report.SoFi's membership grew 35% YoY to ~9.4 million, with 756,000 new members added during Q3 - that growth was supported by a 31% YoY rise in total products to 13.7 million, \"driven by strong cross-buying between members.\" Impressively, 32% of new products were accessed by members who already signed up for SoFi, showing just how successful SoFi's multichannel approach was.SOFI's Q3 IR materialsSales per product also grew 52% YoY (up to $81), reflecting better monetization across the platform. So as a result, the firm's adjusted net revenue reached $689 million (up 30% YoY), which is its 17th straight quarter of record revenues. SOFI achieved this increase based on a solid performance in all 3 of its segments.Notably, the Financial Services unit saw a 102% YoY revenue increase and contributed $238 million to the top line - this segment now makes up more than a 1/3 of SoFi's overall revenue, so the company's move toward capital-free, fee-based revenue proves to be working. As the Q3 earnings call discussion revealed, the FS's growth was \"supported by the increased deposit volume, higher member spending, and rapid growth of the Loan Platform Business.\" The latter – which brought in $56 million in fee-based revenue in the quarter – allows SoFi to scale its business without incurring additional balance sheet risk. Through originating loans for third parties, SoFi can monetize a wider array of borrowers while remaining capital-light. It is already poised to be a $1 billion annualized revenue producer, and partners such as Fortress (who recently reached a $2 billion deal with SoFi) are demanding it.The Tech Platform was also solid, with $103 million in net revenue, up 14% from a year ago. The Tech Platform division with Galileo and Technisys continues to be a mainstay of SoFi's long-term growth plans. The platform now has ~160 million accounts (up 17% YoY) and is quickly becoming popular with banks, fintech, and consumer brands attempting to upgrade their infrastructure (based on Morningstar Premium analysts' commentary, proprietary source). Recent Latin America and U.S. wins, along with new products such as the Galileo Instant Verification Engine (GIVE), prove that the platform is capable of driving innovation and growth in the addressable market, in my opinion. Revenue growth here has been less robust than Financial Services, but the pipeline looks healthy and the management expects it to remain strong as more clients start utilizing SoFi's offerings.Lending, SoFi's largest and oldest business, added 14% to $392 million in adjusted net revenue in Q3 FY2024. Actually, SoFi closed out the quarter with a record-breaking $6.3 billion in loan originations, up 23% from the previous year. Personal loans (~$4.9 billion) increased 26% YoY \"due to high demand and improved credit conditions.\" Volume for home loans also continued to do well, rising 38% YoY to $490 million as lower interest rates boosted refinancing activity. SoFi's focus on high-quality borrowers (an average FICO score of 746 for personal loans and 765 for student loans) has helped to reduce credit risk and improve portfolio performance.SOFI's Q3 IR materialsSo SoFi Technologies exceeded analysts' consensus expectations for Q3, outperforming EPS estimates by approximately 25% (instead of the projected $0.04/share, the company reported $0.05/share). Additionally, revenue came in significantly higher than anticipated, prompting 7 out of 10 analysts to raise their estimates for Q4 2024:Seeking Alpha, SOFI's notes addedThe upward revisions actually followed SoFi management's guidance revisions to the upside: they're now predicting adjusted net revenue of $2.535-2.550 billion (compared with $2.425-2.465 billion in the previous quarter). The adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $640 and $645 million at a 25% margin (I forgot to mention - the Q3 EBITDA margin was 27%). For Q4 in particular, the company expects strong growth in all lines of business, especially Financial Services and Lending, \"as interest rates level out and refinancing requests continue to grow.\" In the long run, SoFi is looking forward to being \"1 one of the 10 financial institutions\" by taking advantage of its core strength of a digital-first, holistic financial services solution.SOFI's Q3 IR materialsBased on the recent unit economics metrics, I believe the management's ambitious plan is progressing along the right trajectory. The execution of their objectives has been solid and effective. So in my opinion, the recent shift in analyst consensus forecasts highlights the significant growth potential of SoFi Technologies' business. I'm writing this with relative confidence because, when examining how analysts' forecasts for the company's EPS have evolved over the past 3-6 months, we see a significant upward revision for FY2024-2025, but projections for the next 3-6 years actually show a decline:Seeking AlphaThis suggests to me that Wall Street analysts are focusing on a relatively short-term horizon and aren't fully considering the potential for sustained growth driven by current trends. Metrics such as member growth, average transaction value, improving credit quality, and the synergistic effects between the company's diverse offerings across various segments could fuel way longer-term expansion than currently priced-in. The actual consensus earnings beatings in the past quarters clearly demonstrated that - the 25% beat in EPS for Q3 was the least massive of the past 4 quarters:Seeking Alpha, SOFIIf we assume that over the next 2 years, SoFi consistently outperforms consensus by 20% annually, the current FY2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 57x would drop to ~40x by FY2025, and by FY2026, the stock could be trading at just 28x its earnings. At the same time, its growth EPS rates would be in high double-digits, and so effectively, its PEG ratios would fall well below 1x for FY2025/26.Seeking Alpha, SOFIFrom this perspective, analyzing SoFi as a growth stock suggests that it's currently significantly undervalued (if my assumptions about the company's continued ability to exceed forecasts prove accurate).So, if the stock trades at a forwarding PEG ratio of 1x by the of 2026 and its EPS for FY2025 is 20% higher than current estimates, my valuation model suggests a fair value of $22.8/share. This implies an upside potential of approximately 43.4% from the current stock price.I agree that this is a fairly bullish forecast, but even if the stock trades at just 58x forward earnings (FY2026) and its EPS is only 10% higher than expected, the fair value would amount to ~$17.86/share. This represents an upside of approximately 12.35%. So even with more conservative assumptions, SoFi Technologies appears to be an undervalued stock at the moment - it's a \"steal\" for growth investors right away.Hence, my \"Buy\" rating reiteration.Where Can I Be Wrong?Now is the time to discuss the risks.First, SOFI's transition to lower-yielding secured loans is unlikely to be as risk-controlled and profit-boosting as it sounds. While I do think this approach will improve loan quality and lower credit risk, it might cause net interest margins (NIM) to compress over time: At low interest rates, or going further down, these secured loan yields will not yield enough returns to make up for the investment necessary to obtain and service them. So this could ultimately impede SoFi's ability to remain profitable and affect my expectations for future earnings growth.My second potential flaw is assuming that SoFi will always outperform consensus estimates. While the company has done better than we expected in recent quarters, this doesn't mean that the trend will persist. We all know that market conditions are subject to fluctuations at a rapid pace, and factors outside the company such as economic slowdown, regulation changes, or new competition from traditional banks and fintechs may disrupt SoFi's growth trajectory. If such issues crop up, it will further dispel my assumption and overall bullish thesis that SoFi will continue to build on this momentum and hit the lofty revenue/EPS goals.Please be cautious and make sure to do your own due diligence on the stock before doing anything - let other SA authors' articles help you with that.The Bottom LineDespite all the risks, SOFI's recent performance reflects a smart and well-enforced mix of diversification, innovation, and efficiencies that have allowed the company to continue operating even amid an unfriendly macro environment. The trend towards digital banking and the growing usage of embedded finance products further set the stage for SoFi's success, so with record-setting revenue, robust membership growth, and a proven roadmap for long-term profitability, the firm seems to be on the right track.Boosted guidance, a strong growth pipeline, and improved market conditions place SoFi in a good position to provide long-term value to shareholders. I believe the stock may be over 40% undervalued today, still looking like a \"steal\" for growth investors after the massive rally we saw over the past few weeks.Based on all that, I reiterate my \"Buy\" rating on SOFI today.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
