Probably worth a read for those who have lost a bit of faith in robotics plays like $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ at $2.5B MC or Harmonic Drive (6324) at $4.3B MC or $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$. Note this is just a look at US TAM & this a more bullish take. ~170 million Americans are employed * $65k average salary = $11T (today). There is no world where robots replace humans entirely but figuring out a fair % is the way to do it. By 2040: Here's the key industries (not an exhaustive list): 1. Manufacturing: ~12.8M workers at avg wage $58k -> total wage pool of $740B. -> $BMW.NE, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$,

Actually stop for a second and think where we are in the AI cycle. 1. CPO with $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$, $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$, $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$, $Lumentum(LITE)$ etc is a 2027-2029 story. -> We have some CPO names trading less than 3x 2027 revenues with revenues growing ~12x over the next 18 months. 2. Neoclouds like $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ is a 2025-2030 onwards story. Jensen literally said "take care of you." -> $27B

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ over the last 5 years: +65% $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ over the last 5 years: +95% This is one of the best businesses in the world lagging the market. Here's how I value AWS alone If AWS grows at just 15% CAGR for the next 7 years, they'll have $286B in revenue in 2032. At 45% operating income, that brings in $128.7B in operating income. With a conservative 15x multiple you're looking at a $1.9T Cloud business over the next few years. The total $AMZN valuation today is $2.25T. I don't think $AMZN is a 3-4x opportunity. But it's a solid way to compound your money over a 5-year period.Image

Here's what you need to know about this 10x opportunity $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ ImageI've been investing into $LMND for a long time now and I've built the position to be the biggest in my portfolio now. I'd love to welcome counter arguments to the below thesis so please do come forward and attack the name if you disagree... I have a big position in $LMND now (relative to the size of my portfolio) purely because I believe the opportunity ahead when they inflect to profitability will be huge. To be honest, it's one of the few names in the market that I feel very comfortable loading up on at today's prices. I write about $LMND in alot of my newsletter and my spreadsheets for my paid subs so here goes. This one is long but I hope it helps a few of you:

The stock market saw the biggest intraday swing ever today. We are hours away from the largest economy in the world levying a 104% tariff on the second largest economy in the world. Bond yields are now above 4.2% - higher than Liberation Day. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Fwd PE is 18x. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is now trading at a Fwd PE similar to 2009. It's an incredible opportunity. Here's a one-page investment thesis:Image

Here's a recap of the most exciting parts of Investor Day today 1. Management are very confident they will achieve 10,000 transplants. That's the publicly stated goal but they have sites FAR larger than that. 2. Currently, we're only utilizing less than 20% of lungs, less than 30% of hearts, and ~60% livers. This means the vast majority of the donor pool is completely untapped. 3. There's a lot of $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ competitors out there that are not solving the issue of ischemia. Ischemic damage is the damage that occurs when there's no blood supply to an organ. The longer this happens for, the increased chance of morbidity. There's no competitor out there that has a product that is able to eliminate ischemic damage AND bring the org