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Micron and Its Memory-Chip Peers Are Riding the AI Surge. How and When It Could Turn Sour

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How and When It Could Turn Sour","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147938085","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The latest winners in the artificial-intelligence trade are memory-chip makers. $Micron Technology(MU)$, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are soaring as AI growth creates huge demand for their...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The latest winners in the artificial-intelligence trade are memory-chip makers. <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a></strong>, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are soaring as AI growth creates huge demand for their hardware. But the history of the industry shows investors need to watch for a downturn, as the race to increase production creates the risk of an eventual glut of hardware and a painful crash.</p><p>Sales of memory chips are surging, exceeded only by the pace of margin expansion. The trend should be on show next month when Micron is expected to report its February-quarter earnings: its revenue is projected to more than double from the same period a year earlier, while earnings are forecast to grow more than fivefold.</p><p>Yet the memory-chip industry is historically cyclical: periods of undersupply are followed by oversupply. Stock prices follow the same pattern, appearing cheap during upswings before crashing when hardware gluts emerge. Investors must therefore watch for warning signs that the trade is ending.</p><p>“Capital expenditure has historically been a leading indicator of oversupply…also, when we see indications of pricing flattening off, that is also a leading indicator for the cycle turning,” Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor &amp; infrastructure equity research at Futurum told <em>Barron’s</em> in an interview.</p><h3 id=\"id_3369618697\">Memory and AI</h3><p>First a quick recap of why memory-chips are the hot AI play. AI servers need high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to support the processing of huge amounts of data. HBM is a specialized form of dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, with other variants also required. At the same time, the latest AI servers also require NAND flash memory to store large data sets.</p><p>Because HBM is resource-intensive—each unit needs roughly three times the semiconductor wafer capacity of standard memory—expanding supply reduces production of other memory types and drives prices higher across the sector. TrendForce projects the memory market will reach $551.6 billion in 2026 and $842.7 billion in 2027.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/977ea5133339e6f78c8b5706374eeb6d\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_209062924\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Soaring Prices and Investment</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Pricing suggests demand is far outpacing supply. UBS expects contract pricing for a common DRAM type to rise 62% in the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, with NAND prices increasing about 40%. These costs pressure device makers such as Apple, but there is little evidence of weakening demand outside of pockets such as reduced production by Chinese smartphone makers.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On the other hand, if rising capital expenditure signals an eventual crash, there might be cause for concern. Micron has pledged roughly $200 billion in investment to expand its U.S. facilities. SK Hynix and Samsung have indicated rising capex as well, starting from higher baselines.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the near-term impact of capex increases remains limited because vital clean-room capacity cannot be installed quickly. Micron expects industry DRAM and NAND shipments to grow about 20% year over year, with demand exceeding supply throughout 2026.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Production capacity is unlikely to shift significantly until mid-2027, when Micron begins wafer output from a $50 billion expansion of its facilities in Idaho. SK Hynix’s Yongin cluster should reach volume production in late 2027, followed by further additions in 2028 and Micron’s $100 billion New York project in 2030.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While timelines may change, supply constraints among the three leaders appear likely for at least the next 12—18 months. NAND supply is somewhat more complex because of the presence of <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">Sandisk</a> </strong>and Kioxia in the market, yet overall capacity still looks tight until at least mid-2027.</p><h3 id=\"id_2768597068\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Watch These Risks</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">China represents the main source of additional supply. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the country’s largest DRAM maker, and Yangtze Memory Technologies, focused on NAND, are expanding. Their global impact is limited by restrictions on advanced manufacturing tools and the need to prioritize domestic demand. Still, if shortages worsen, some hardware makers may turn to Chinese suppliers. Dell Technologies and HP have reportedly begun qualifying CXMT products. Dell declined to comment on the reports, while HP didn’t respond to a request for comment.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even if Chinese firms reach required technical levels, Western companies may hesitate to rely on them because of potential sanctions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The moment that the U.S. administration or regulators decide that CXMT becomes too much of a competitive threat…we’ll see those export restrictions become more stringent,” Bulk said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A longer term risk is new memory technology. Intel and Japan’s SoftBank Group said this month they are jointly developing a technology called Z-Angle Memory, which they say could deliver higher capacity and lower power use than HBM in AI data centers. But the project remains early-stage, targeting commercialization by 2030.</p><h3 id=\"id_4020129420\" style=\"text-align: start;\">How to Invest</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Assuming the cycle continues for at least another year, investors must decide how to participate. For U.S. investors, Micron is the most accessible option. SK Hynix dominates HBM, and Samsung offers diversification, but exposure typically requires over-the-counter trading or international exchange-traded funds such as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF which tracks a wider absket of Korean stocks, although it is heavily weighted toward the two domestic memory-chip players.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Valuing Micron is tricky because cyclical earnings distort traditional price-to-earnings snapshots. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore instead averages earnings across a full cycle and applies a 25-times multiple to “through-cycle” earnings per share of $18.00. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri looks ahead to 2027, assigning a three-times price-to-sales ratio to core DRAM and NAND revenue and six-times to HBM sales. Both approaches produce a $450 price target.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33e1ea978bbbcee15df0a84ef697f0cd\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"437\"/></p><p>Micron shares trade near $425 after more than quadrupling in the past year. The stock wobbled recently amid reports of the company potentially trailing its Korean rivals in shipping the newest type of HBM chip to Nvidia, but executives and analysts have dismissed those fears.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A final caution: even if the boom lasts until mid-2027, holding Micron stock that long may not be safe. In cyclical industries, valuation multiples typically contract before oversupply appears, even while sales and earnings keep rising. The memory-chip supercycle may be compelling, but investors must remain disciplined in how they play it.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron and Its Memory-Chip Peers Are Riding the AI Surge. 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How and When It Could Turn Sour\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-23 15:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The latest winners in the artificial-intelligence trade are memory-chip makers. <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a></strong>, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are soaring as AI growth creates huge demand for their hardware. But the history of the industry shows investors need to watch for a downturn, as the race to increase production creates the risk of an eventual glut of hardware and a painful crash.</p><p>Sales of memory chips are surging, exceeded only by the pace of margin expansion. The trend should be on show next month when Micron is expected to report its February-quarter earnings: its revenue is projected to more than double from the same period a year earlier, while earnings are forecast to grow more than fivefold.</p><p>Yet the memory-chip industry is historically cyclical: periods of undersupply are followed by oversupply. Stock prices follow the same pattern, appearing cheap during upswings before crashing when hardware gluts emerge. Investors must therefore watch for warning signs that the trade is ending.</p><p>“Capital expenditure has historically been a leading indicator of oversupply…also, when we see indications of pricing flattening off, that is also a leading indicator for the cycle turning,” Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor &amp; infrastructure equity research at Futurum told <em>Barron’s</em> in an interview.</p><h3 id=\"id_3369618697\">Memory and AI</h3><p>First a quick recap of why memory-chips are the hot AI play. AI servers need high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to support the processing of huge amounts of data. HBM is a specialized form of dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, with other variants also required. At the same time, the latest AI servers also require NAND flash memory to store large data sets.</p><p>Because HBM is resource-intensive—each unit needs roughly three times the semiconductor wafer capacity of standard memory—expanding supply reduces production of other memory types and drives prices higher across the sector. TrendForce projects the memory market will reach $551.6 billion in 2026 and $842.7 billion in 2027.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/977ea5133339e6f78c8b5706374eeb6d\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_209062924\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Soaring Prices and Investment</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Pricing suggests demand is far outpacing supply. UBS expects contract pricing for a common DRAM type to rise 62% in the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, with NAND prices increasing about 40%. These costs pressure device makers such as Apple, but there is little evidence of weakening demand outside of pockets such as reduced production by Chinese smartphone makers.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On the other hand, if rising capital expenditure signals an eventual crash, there might be cause for concern. Micron has pledged roughly $200 billion in investment to expand its U.S. facilities. SK Hynix and Samsung have indicated rising capex as well, starting from higher baselines.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the near-term impact of capex increases remains limited because vital clean-room capacity cannot be installed quickly. Micron expects industry DRAM and NAND shipments to grow about 20% year over year, with demand exceeding supply throughout 2026.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Production capacity is unlikely to shift significantly until mid-2027, when Micron begins wafer output from a $50 billion expansion of its facilities in Idaho. SK Hynix’s Yongin cluster should reach volume production in late 2027, followed by further additions in 2028 and Micron’s $100 billion New York project in 2030.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While timelines may change, supply constraints among the three leaders appear likely for at least the next 12—18 months. NAND supply is somewhat more complex because of the presence of <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">Sandisk</a> </strong>and Kioxia in the market, yet overall capacity still looks tight until at least mid-2027.</p><h3 id=\"id_2768597068\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Watch These Risks</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">China represents the main source of additional supply. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the country’s largest DRAM maker, and Yangtze Memory Technologies, focused on NAND, are expanding. Their global impact is limited by restrictions on advanced manufacturing tools and the need to prioritize domestic demand. Still, if shortages worsen, some hardware makers may turn to Chinese suppliers. Dell Technologies and HP have reportedly begun qualifying CXMT products. Dell declined to comment on the reports, while HP didn’t respond to a request for comment.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even if Chinese firms reach required technical levels, Western companies may hesitate to rely on them because of potential sanctions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The moment that the U.S. administration or regulators decide that CXMT becomes too much of a competitive threat…we’ll see those export restrictions become more stringent,” Bulk said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A longer term risk is new memory technology. Intel and Japan’s SoftBank Group said this month they are jointly developing a technology called Z-Angle Memory, which they say could deliver higher capacity and lower power use than HBM in AI data centers. But the project remains early-stage, targeting commercialization by 2030.</p><h3 id=\"id_4020129420\" style=\"text-align: start;\">How to Invest</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Assuming the cycle continues for at least another year, investors must decide how to participate. For U.S. investors, Micron is the most accessible option. SK Hynix dominates HBM, and Samsung offers diversification, but exposure typically requires over-the-counter trading or international exchange-traded funds such as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF which tracks a wider absket of Korean stocks, although it is heavily weighted toward the two domestic memory-chip players.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Valuing Micron is tricky because cyclical earnings distort traditional price-to-earnings snapshots. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore instead averages earnings across a full cycle and applies a 25-times multiple to “through-cycle” earnings per share of $18.00. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri looks ahead to 2027, assigning a three-times price-to-sales ratio to core DRAM and NAND revenue and six-times to HBM sales. Both approaches produce a $450 price target.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33e1ea978bbbcee15df0a84ef697f0cd\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"437\"/></p><p>Micron shares trade near $425 after more than quadrupling in the past year. The stock wobbled recently amid reports of the company potentially trailing its Korean rivals in shipping the newest type of HBM chip to Nvidia, but executives and analysts have dismissed those fears.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A final caution: even if the boom lasts until mid-2027, holding Micron stock that long may not be safe. In cyclical industries, valuation multiples typically contract before oversupply appears, even while sales and earnings keep rising. The memory-chip supercycle may be compelling, but investors must remain disciplined in how they play it.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","PSTG":"Pure Storage Inc","STX":"希捷科技","WDC":"西部数据","RMBS":"Rambus","SIMO":"慧荣科技","SNDK":"闪迪"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147938085","content_text":"The latest winners in the artificial-intelligence trade are memory-chip makers. Micron Technology, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are soaring as AI growth creates huge demand for their hardware. But the history of the industry shows investors need to watch for a downturn, as the race to increase production creates the risk of an eventual glut of hardware and a painful crash.Sales of memory chips are surging, exceeded only by the pace of margin expansion. The trend should be on show next month when Micron is expected to report its February-quarter earnings: its revenue is projected to more than double from the same period a year earlier, while earnings are forecast to grow more than fivefold.Yet the memory-chip industry is historically cyclical: periods of undersupply are followed by oversupply. Stock prices follow the same pattern, appearing cheap during upswings before crashing when hardware gluts emerge. Investors must therefore watch for warning signs that the trade is ending.“Capital expenditure has historically been a leading indicator of oversupply…also, when we see indications of pricing flattening off, that is also a leading indicator for the cycle turning,” Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor & infrastructure equity research at Futurum told Barron’s in an interview.Memory and AIFirst a quick recap of why memory-chips are the hot AI play. AI servers need high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to support the processing of huge amounts of data. HBM is a specialized form of dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, with other variants also required. At the same time, the latest AI servers also require NAND flash memory to store large data sets.Because HBM is resource-intensive—each unit needs roughly three times the semiconductor wafer capacity of standard memory—expanding supply reduces production of other memory types and drives prices higher across the sector. TrendForce projects the memory market will reach $551.6 billion in 2026 and $842.7 billion in 2027.Soaring Prices and InvestmentPricing suggests demand is far outpacing supply. UBS expects contract pricing for a common DRAM type to rise 62% in the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, with NAND prices increasing about 40%. These costs pressure device makers such as Apple, but there is little evidence of weakening demand outside of pockets such as reduced production by Chinese smartphone makers.On the other hand, if rising capital expenditure signals an eventual crash, there might be cause for concern. Micron has pledged roughly $200 billion in investment to expand its U.S. facilities. SK Hynix and Samsung have indicated rising capex as well, starting from higher baselines.However, the near-term impact of capex increases remains limited because vital clean-room capacity cannot be installed quickly. Micron expects industry DRAM and NAND shipments to grow about 20% year over year, with demand exceeding supply throughout 2026.Production capacity is unlikely to shift significantly until mid-2027, when Micron begins wafer output from a $50 billion expansion of its facilities in Idaho. SK Hynix’s Yongin cluster should reach volume production in late 2027, followed by further additions in 2028 and Micron’s $100 billion New York project in 2030.While timelines may change, supply constraints among the three leaders appear likely for at least the next 12—18 months. NAND supply is somewhat more complex because of the presence of Sandisk and Kioxia in the market, yet overall capacity still looks tight until at least mid-2027.Watch These RisksChina represents the main source of additional supply. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the country’s largest DRAM maker, and Yangtze Memory Technologies, focused on NAND, are expanding. Their global impact is limited by restrictions on advanced manufacturing tools and the need to prioritize domestic demand. Still, if shortages worsen, some hardware makers may turn to Chinese suppliers. Dell Technologies and HP have reportedly begun qualifying CXMT products. Dell declined to comment on the reports, while HP didn’t respond to a request for comment.Even if Chinese firms reach required technical levels, Western companies may hesitate to rely on them because of potential sanctions.“The moment that the U.S. administration or regulators decide that CXMT becomes too much of a competitive threat…we’ll see those export restrictions become more stringent,” Bulk said.A longer term risk is new memory technology. Intel and Japan’s SoftBank Group said this month they are jointly developing a technology called Z-Angle Memory, which they say could deliver higher capacity and lower power use than HBM in AI data centers. But the project remains early-stage, targeting commercialization by 2030.How to InvestAssuming the cycle continues for at least another year, investors must decide how to participate. For U.S. investors, Micron is the most accessible option. SK Hynix dominates HBM, and Samsung offers diversification, but exposure typically requires over-the-counter trading or international exchange-traded funds such as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF which tracks a wider absket of Korean stocks, although it is heavily weighted toward the two domestic memory-chip players.Valuing Micron is tricky because cyclical earnings distort traditional price-to-earnings snapshots. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore instead averages earnings across a full cycle and applies a 25-times multiple to “through-cycle” earnings per share of $18.00. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri looks ahead to 2027, assigning a three-times price-to-sales ratio to core DRAM and NAND revenue and six-times to HBM sales. Both approaches produce a $450 price target.Micron shares trade near $425 after more than quadrupling in the past year. The stock wobbled recently amid reports of the company potentially trailing its Korean rivals in shipping the newest type of HBM chip to Nvidia, but executives and analysts have dismissed those fears.A final caution: even if the boom lasts until mid-2027, holding Micron stock that long may not be safe. In cyclical industries, valuation multiples typically contract before oversupply appears, even while sales and earnings keep rising. The memory-chip supercycle may be compelling, but investors must remain disciplined in how they play it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PSTG":2,"SNDK":2,"SIMO":2,"RMBS":2,"STX":2,"WDC":2,"MU":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":535831679569992,"gmtCreate":1771839925846,"gmtModify":1771840898284,"author":{"id":"4196912444626102","authorId":"4196912444626102","name":"ThE BeAr","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4196912444626102","authorIdStr":"4196912444626102"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/535831679569992","repostId":"1147938085","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147938085","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1771830546,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147938085?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-02-23 15:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron and Its Memory-Chip Peers Are Riding the AI Surge. How and When It Could Turn Sour","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147938085","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The latest winners in the artificial-intelligence trade are memory-chip makers. $Micron Technology(MU)$, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are soaring as AI growth creates huge demand for their...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The latest winners in the artificial-intelligence trade are memory-chip makers. <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a></strong>, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are soaring as AI growth creates huge demand for their hardware. But the history of the industry shows investors need to watch for a downturn, as the race to increase production creates the risk of an eventual glut of hardware and a painful crash.</p><p>Sales of memory chips are surging, exceeded only by the pace of margin expansion. The trend should be on show next month when Micron is expected to report its February-quarter earnings: its revenue is projected to more than double from the same period a year earlier, while earnings are forecast to grow more than fivefold.</p><p>Yet the memory-chip industry is historically cyclical: periods of undersupply are followed by oversupply. Stock prices follow the same pattern, appearing cheap during upswings before crashing when hardware gluts emerge. Investors must therefore watch for warning signs that the trade is ending.</p><p>“Capital expenditure has historically been a leading indicator of oversupply…also, when we see indications of pricing flattening off, that is also a leading indicator for the cycle turning,” Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor &amp; infrastructure equity research at Futurum told <em>Barron’s</em> in an interview.</p><h3 id=\"id_3369618697\">Memory and AI</h3><p>First a quick recap of why memory-chips are the hot AI play. AI servers need high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to support the processing of huge amounts of data. HBM is a specialized form of dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, with other variants also required. At the same time, the latest AI servers also require NAND flash memory to store large data sets.</p><p>Because HBM is resource-intensive—each unit needs roughly three times the semiconductor wafer capacity of standard memory—expanding supply reduces production of other memory types and drives prices higher across the sector. TrendForce projects the memory market will reach $551.6 billion in 2026 and $842.7 billion in 2027.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/977ea5133339e6f78c8b5706374eeb6d\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_209062924\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Soaring Prices and Investment</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Pricing suggests demand is far outpacing supply. UBS expects contract pricing for a common DRAM type to rise 62% in the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, with NAND prices increasing about 40%. These costs pressure device makers such as Apple, but there is little evidence of weakening demand outside of pockets such as reduced production by Chinese smartphone makers.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On the other hand, if rising capital expenditure signals an eventual crash, there might be cause for concern. Micron has pledged roughly $200 billion in investment to expand its U.S. facilities. SK Hynix and Samsung have indicated rising capex as well, starting from higher baselines.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the near-term impact of capex increases remains limited because vital clean-room capacity cannot be installed quickly. Micron expects industry DRAM and NAND shipments to grow about 20% year over year, with demand exceeding supply throughout 2026.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Production capacity is unlikely to shift significantly until mid-2027, when Micron begins wafer output from a $50 billion expansion of its facilities in Idaho. SK Hynix’s Yongin cluster should reach volume production in late 2027, followed by further additions in 2028 and Micron’s $100 billion New York project in 2030.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While timelines may change, supply constraints among the three leaders appear likely for at least the next 12—18 months. NAND supply is somewhat more complex because of the presence of <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">Sandisk</a> </strong>and Kioxia in the market, yet overall capacity still looks tight until at least mid-2027.</p><h3 id=\"id_2768597068\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Watch These Risks</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">China represents the main source of additional supply. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the country’s largest DRAM maker, and Yangtze Memory Technologies, focused on NAND, are expanding. Their global impact is limited by restrictions on advanced manufacturing tools and the need to prioritize domestic demand. Still, if shortages worsen, some hardware makers may turn to Chinese suppliers. Dell Technologies and HP have reportedly begun qualifying CXMT products. Dell declined to comment on the reports, while HP didn’t respond to a request for comment.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even if Chinese firms reach required technical levels, Western companies may hesitate to rely on them because of potential sanctions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The moment that the U.S. administration or regulators decide that CXMT becomes too much of a competitive threat…we’ll see those export restrictions become more stringent,” Bulk said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A longer term risk is new memory technology. Intel and Japan’s SoftBank Group said this month they are jointly developing a technology called Z-Angle Memory, which they say could deliver higher capacity and lower power use than HBM in AI data centers. But the project remains early-stage, targeting commercialization by 2030.</p><h3 id=\"id_4020129420\" style=\"text-align: start;\">How to Invest</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Assuming the cycle continues for at least another year, investors must decide how to participate. For U.S. investors, Micron is the most accessible option. SK Hynix dominates HBM, and Samsung offers diversification, but exposure typically requires over-the-counter trading or international exchange-traded funds such as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF which tracks a wider absket of Korean stocks, although it is heavily weighted toward the two domestic memory-chip players.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Valuing Micron is tricky because cyclical earnings distort traditional price-to-earnings snapshots. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore instead averages earnings across a full cycle and applies a 25-times multiple to “through-cycle” earnings per share of $18.00. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri looks ahead to 2027, assigning a three-times price-to-sales ratio to core DRAM and NAND revenue and six-times to HBM sales. Both approaches produce a $450 price target.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33e1ea978bbbcee15df0a84ef697f0cd\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"437\"/></p><p>Micron shares trade near $425 after more than quadrupling in the past year. The stock wobbled recently amid reports of the company potentially trailing its Korean rivals in shipping the newest type of HBM chip to Nvidia, but executives and analysts have dismissed those fears.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A final caution: even if the boom lasts until mid-2027, holding Micron stock that long may not be safe. In cyclical industries, valuation multiples typically contract before oversupply appears, even while sales and earnings keep rising. The memory-chip supercycle may be compelling, but investors must remain disciplined in how they play it.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron and Its Memory-Chip Peers Are Riding the AI Surge. How and When It Could Turn Sour</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron and Its Memory-Chip Peers Are Riding the AI Surge. How and When It Could Turn Sour\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-23 15:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The latest winners in the artificial-intelligence trade are memory-chip makers. <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a></strong>, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are soaring as AI growth creates huge demand for their hardware. But the history of the industry shows investors need to watch for a downturn, as the race to increase production creates the risk of an eventual glut of hardware and a painful crash.</p><p>Sales of memory chips are surging, exceeded only by the pace of margin expansion. The trend should be on show next month when Micron is expected to report its February-quarter earnings: its revenue is projected to more than double from the same period a year earlier, while earnings are forecast to grow more than fivefold.</p><p>Yet the memory-chip industry is historically cyclical: periods of undersupply are followed by oversupply. Stock prices follow the same pattern, appearing cheap during upswings before crashing when hardware gluts emerge. Investors must therefore watch for warning signs that the trade is ending.</p><p>“Capital expenditure has historically been a leading indicator of oversupply…also, when we see indications of pricing flattening off, that is also a leading indicator for the cycle turning,” Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor &amp; infrastructure equity research at Futurum told <em>Barron’s</em> in an interview.</p><h3 id=\"id_3369618697\">Memory and AI</h3><p>First a quick recap of why memory-chips are the hot AI play. AI servers need high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to support the processing of huge amounts of data. HBM is a specialized form of dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, with other variants also required. At the same time, the latest AI servers also require NAND flash memory to store large data sets.</p><p>Because HBM is resource-intensive—each unit needs roughly three times the semiconductor wafer capacity of standard memory—expanding supply reduces production of other memory types and drives prices higher across the sector. TrendForce projects the memory market will reach $551.6 billion in 2026 and $842.7 billion in 2027.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/977ea5133339e6f78c8b5706374eeb6d\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_209062924\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Soaring Prices and Investment</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Pricing suggests demand is far outpacing supply. UBS expects contract pricing for a common DRAM type to rise 62% in the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, with NAND prices increasing about 40%. These costs pressure device makers such as Apple, but there is little evidence of weakening demand outside of pockets such as reduced production by Chinese smartphone makers.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On the other hand, if rising capital expenditure signals an eventual crash, there might be cause for concern. Micron has pledged roughly $200 billion in investment to expand its U.S. facilities. SK Hynix and Samsung have indicated rising capex as well, starting from higher baselines.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the near-term impact of capex increases remains limited because vital clean-room capacity cannot be installed quickly. Micron expects industry DRAM and NAND shipments to grow about 20% year over year, with demand exceeding supply throughout 2026.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Production capacity is unlikely to shift significantly until mid-2027, when Micron begins wafer output from a $50 billion expansion of its facilities in Idaho. SK Hynix’s Yongin cluster should reach volume production in late 2027, followed by further additions in 2028 and Micron’s $100 billion New York project in 2030.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While timelines may change, supply constraints among the three leaders appear likely for at least the next 12—18 months. NAND supply is somewhat more complex because of the presence of <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">Sandisk</a> </strong>and Kioxia in the market, yet overall capacity still looks tight until at least mid-2027.</p><h3 id=\"id_2768597068\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Watch These Risks</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">China represents the main source of additional supply. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the country’s largest DRAM maker, and Yangtze Memory Technologies, focused on NAND, are expanding. Their global impact is limited by restrictions on advanced manufacturing tools and the need to prioritize domestic demand. Still, if shortages worsen, some hardware makers may turn to Chinese suppliers. Dell Technologies and HP have reportedly begun qualifying CXMT products. Dell declined to comment on the reports, while HP didn’t respond to a request for comment.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even if Chinese firms reach required technical levels, Western companies may hesitate to rely on them because of potential sanctions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The moment that the U.S. administration or regulators decide that CXMT becomes too much of a competitive threat…we’ll see those export restrictions become more stringent,” Bulk said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A longer term risk is new memory technology. Intel and Japan’s SoftBank Group said this month they are jointly developing a technology called Z-Angle Memory, which they say could deliver higher capacity and lower power use than HBM in AI data centers. But the project remains early-stage, targeting commercialization by 2030.</p><h3 id=\"id_4020129420\" style=\"text-align: start;\">How to Invest</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Assuming the cycle continues for at least another year, investors must decide how to participate. For U.S. investors, Micron is the most accessible option. SK Hynix dominates HBM, and Samsung offers diversification, but exposure typically requires over-the-counter trading or international exchange-traded funds such as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF which tracks a wider absket of Korean stocks, although it is heavily weighted toward the two domestic memory-chip players.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Valuing Micron is tricky because cyclical earnings distort traditional price-to-earnings snapshots. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore instead averages earnings across a full cycle and applies a 25-times multiple to “through-cycle” earnings per share of $18.00. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri looks ahead to 2027, assigning a three-times price-to-sales ratio to core DRAM and NAND revenue and six-times to HBM sales. Both approaches produce a $450 price target.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33e1ea978bbbcee15df0a84ef697f0cd\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"437\"/></p><p>Micron shares trade near $425 after more than quadrupling in the past year. The stock wobbled recently amid reports of the company potentially trailing its Korean rivals in shipping the newest type of HBM chip to Nvidia, but executives and analysts have dismissed those fears.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A final caution: even if the boom lasts until mid-2027, holding Micron stock that long may not be safe. In cyclical industries, valuation multiples typically contract before oversupply appears, even while sales and earnings keep rising. The memory-chip supercycle may be compelling, but investors must remain disciplined in how they play it.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","PSTG":"Pure Storage Inc","STX":"希捷科技","WDC":"西部数据","RMBS":"Rambus","SIMO":"慧荣科技","SNDK":"闪迪"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147938085","content_text":"The latest winners in the artificial-intelligence trade are memory-chip makers. Micron Technology, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are soaring as AI growth creates huge demand for their hardware. But the history of the industry shows investors need to watch for a downturn, as the race to increase production creates the risk of an eventual glut of hardware and a painful crash.Sales of memory chips are surging, exceeded only by the pace of margin expansion. The trend should be on show next month when Micron is expected to report its February-quarter earnings: its revenue is projected to more than double from the same period a year earlier, while earnings are forecast to grow more than fivefold.Yet the memory-chip industry is historically cyclical: periods of undersupply are followed by oversupply. Stock prices follow the same pattern, appearing cheap during upswings before crashing when hardware gluts emerge. Investors must therefore watch for warning signs that the trade is ending.“Capital expenditure has historically been a leading indicator of oversupply…also, when we see indications of pricing flattening off, that is also a leading indicator for the cycle turning,” Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor & infrastructure equity research at Futurum told Barron’s in an interview.Memory and AIFirst a quick recap of why memory-chips are the hot AI play. AI servers need high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to support the processing of huge amounts of data. HBM is a specialized form of dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, with other variants also required. At the same time, the latest AI servers also require NAND flash memory to store large data sets.Because HBM is resource-intensive—each unit needs roughly three times the semiconductor wafer capacity of standard memory—expanding supply reduces production of other memory types and drives prices higher across the sector. TrendForce projects the memory market will reach $551.6 billion in 2026 and $842.7 billion in 2027.Soaring Prices and InvestmentPricing suggests demand is far outpacing supply. UBS expects contract pricing for a common DRAM type to rise 62% in the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, with NAND prices increasing about 40%. These costs pressure device makers such as Apple, but there is little evidence of weakening demand outside of pockets such as reduced production by Chinese smartphone makers.On the other hand, if rising capital expenditure signals an eventual crash, there might be cause for concern. Micron has pledged roughly $200 billion in investment to expand its U.S. facilities. SK Hynix and Samsung have indicated rising capex as well, starting from higher baselines.However, the near-term impact of capex increases remains limited because vital clean-room capacity cannot be installed quickly. Micron expects industry DRAM and NAND shipments to grow about 20% year over year, with demand exceeding supply throughout 2026.Production capacity is unlikely to shift significantly until mid-2027, when Micron begins wafer output from a $50 billion expansion of its facilities in Idaho. SK Hynix’s Yongin cluster should reach volume production in late 2027, followed by further additions in 2028 and Micron’s $100 billion New York project in 2030.While timelines may change, supply constraints among the three leaders appear likely for at least the next 12—18 months. NAND supply is somewhat more complex because of the presence of Sandisk and Kioxia in the market, yet overall capacity still looks tight until at least mid-2027.Watch These RisksChina represents the main source of additional supply. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the country’s largest DRAM maker, and Yangtze Memory Technologies, focused on NAND, are expanding. Their global impact is limited by restrictions on advanced manufacturing tools and the need to prioritize domestic demand. Still, if shortages worsen, some hardware makers may turn to Chinese suppliers. Dell Technologies and HP have reportedly begun qualifying CXMT products. Dell declined to comment on the reports, while HP didn’t respond to a request for comment.Even if Chinese firms reach required technical levels, Western companies may hesitate to rely on them because of potential sanctions.“The moment that the U.S. administration or regulators decide that CXMT becomes too much of a competitive threat…we’ll see those export restrictions become more stringent,” Bulk said.A longer term risk is new memory technology. Intel and Japan’s SoftBank Group said this month they are jointly developing a technology called Z-Angle Memory, which they say could deliver higher capacity and lower power use than HBM in AI data centers. But the project remains early-stage, targeting commercialization by 2030.How to InvestAssuming the cycle continues for at least another year, investors must decide how to participate. For U.S. investors, Micron is the most accessible option. SK Hynix dominates HBM, and Samsung offers diversification, but exposure typically requires over-the-counter trading or international exchange-traded funds such as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF which tracks a wider absket of Korean stocks, although it is heavily weighted toward the two domestic memory-chip players.Valuing Micron is tricky because cyclical earnings distort traditional price-to-earnings snapshots. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore instead averages earnings across a full cycle and applies a 25-times multiple to “through-cycle” earnings per share of $18.00. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri looks ahead to 2027, assigning a three-times price-to-sales ratio to core DRAM and NAND revenue and six-times to HBM sales. Both approaches produce a $450 price target.Micron shares trade near $425 after more than quadrupling in the past year. The stock wobbled recently amid reports of the company potentially trailing its Korean rivals in shipping the newest type of HBM chip to Nvidia, but executives and analysts have dismissed those fears.A final caution: even if the boom lasts until mid-2027, holding Micron stock that long may not be safe. In cyclical industries, valuation multiples typically contract before oversupply appears, even while sales and earnings keep rising. The memory-chip supercycle may be compelling, but investors must remain disciplined in how they play it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PSTG":2,"SNDK":2,"SIMO":2,"RMBS":2,"STX":2,"WDC":2,"MU":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}