Envision Early Retirement
Envision Early Retirement
Retired w 20 yrs of investing
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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY) Take profit as tariff pause triggers SP500 rally I see little odds for the U.S. and China to address their fundamental conflicts of interests in 90 days for many reasons. For example, I feel the electronics supply chain and also trade of rare earth elements are  viewed by both countries as an issue of national security. Both countries have been trying to resolve these issues for years and have not found a sustainable solution yet. I see little chance for a fundamental solution to emerge in the next 90 days. In addition, leaders on both sides also need to consider the prevailing sentiment in their own country. As Warren Buffett explained to an 11-years boy in this following video, tariff is not only an econom

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger: why P/E ratio can be meaningless

Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B) Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A) In this video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZL328y2vJ0 Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger share their insights on the following issues. Very timely for the current market conditions with record SP500 P/E and Berkshire Hathaway succession plan in motion. Why P/E can be meaningless Would his successor keep repurchasing BRK shares And their thoughts on Google and Amazon stock.
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger: why P/E ratio can be meaningless

Warren Buffett questioned by 8 years old girl

Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B) Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A) An 8 years old girl gave Warren Buffett a tough question on his investment choices (see the video below). The question is even tougher for Greg Abel with a record cash pile sitting on BKR’s balance sheet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoW3zlguq1s Given Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK) substantial cash position, which reached a record $347 billion in March 2025, Greg Abel faces significant investment challenges. The primary hurdle is deploying this massive capital effectively to generate meaningful returns without compromising Berkshire's financial strength. Finding large, undervalued acquisition targets that meet Berkshire's criteria has become increasingl
Warren Buffett questioned by 8 years old girl

Warren Buffett explains why Berkshire Hathaway price can go up if he passes away

Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B) Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A) I expect the succession question to be asked again in the Berkshire Hathaway 2025 annual meeting. Buffett himself already explained (see the video below) why BRK stocks price can go up tomorrow if he passes away today. https://youtu.be/YP8VyvLfwYg Some of my additional thoughts are below: Removal of "Key Person Risk" Discount: Currently, a portion of BRK's stock valuation might be discounted due to the "key person risk" associated with Warren Buffett. His exceptional track record and influence are undeniable. Upon his passing, this specific risk factor would be removed. Some investors who were hesitant due to this concentration of influence might then
Warren Buffett explains why Berkshire Hathaway price can go up if he passes away

Microsoft FQ3 earnings: Rule of 40 continues to support buy rating

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  This article argues why Microsoft Corporation stock is a buy after the release of its fiscal 2025 third quarter earnings report. The key takeaways are: Microsoft's FQ3 2025 earnings report shows a strong Rule of 40 score of ~52, driven by 15% growth and a ~37% net profit margin. I see good reasons for the score to further improve as its cloud segment grows at a rapid pace. I expect this segment to become its largest profit contributor in the near future and carry higher margins. In terms of valuation risks, benchmarking MSFT’s P/E ratio by the sector average is misleading because most companies in the sector do not pass the rule of 40. MSFT FQ3: rule of 40 score is 52 Microsoft Corporation stock’s latest earnings report (ER
Microsoft FQ3 earnings: Rule of 40 continues to support buy rating

Apple stock Q2 earnings: still not too late to buy

$Apple(AAPL)$ #Apple About a week ago, I argued why $200 is a great entry point for AAPL stock, $Apple(AAPL)$. The prices have gone up a bit by now, but still attractive. Interest readers can take a look of my original analysis below. APPLE STOCK is about to release its fiscal year second quarter earnings report for 2025 in less than a week. It is scheduled on May 1, 2025. The company – together with the overall investing landscape – is experiencing material uncertainties. Here, I will divide these uncertainties into two buckets and analyze their impacts on the stock. The first bucket includes changes that can impact APPLE STOCK’s specific operations, particularly the potential changes in tariff rates that can impact APPLE STOCK profitability metrics. The second bucket will include changes
Apple stock Q2 earnings: still not too late to buy

Why Warren Buffett loves AAPL stock so much?

$Apple(AAPL)$ Despite multiple reductions, AAPL is still Warren Buffett’s largest holding as you can see from the following chart. In this article, I will probe into the wisdom of Warren Buffett on Apple stock. Warren Buffett has made about $100 billion on Apple stock! This makes the iPhone maker one of the billionaire investor's best investments ever!   In an interview with Yahoo finance a few years ago, Buffett was asked about how closely he follows the company given his large take in it. Because many people are concerned with Apple. Apple really has not introduced any new products lately. And Buffett’s answer is always insightful, and let’s hear it first. So to sum up, the key takeaways from mister Buffett’s wisdom are. 1.&
Why Warren Buffett loves AAPL stock so much?

TQQQ: how to beat the market by disciplined leverage

$ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ In this article, I will show you a way to use leverage to generate extra return, or alpha, to beat the market and  make extra money.  The key of this method are two fold. First, the leverage is adjusted dynamically. That is, we will apply different levels of leverage under different market conditions to maximize our return. The second key is that the method will help us to stay disciplined. Discipline is absolutely crucial for the use of leverage in the long run. As a result, the method will help us generate consistent extra return on our money. The dynamic adjustment is based on volatility, which is relatively easier to predict than stock market returns. We will use the so-call VIX index, t
TQQQ: how to beat the market by disciplined leverage

Procter & Gamble FQ3: consolidation continues around $168

$Procter & Gamble(PG)$ PG’s FQ3 2025 earnings report shows declines in key segments. I believe such earning pressure largely came from headwinds from trade disputes and persisting inflation. I further expect these headwinds to continue and continue confine PG stocks to be range bound. Recent trading patterns provide further indictors for continued consolidation. Let me start with the fundamentals the company just updated in its 3rd fiscal quarter ER, released on April 24 before the market opened. Overall, the results reflected ongoing headwinds in my view, largely due to softened/softening consumer demand amid uncertainties caused by the trade and tariff disputes. The company suffered Q/Q declines in all its key segments as you c
Procter & Gamble FQ3: consolidation continues around $168

Apple FQ2 preview: buy and forget at $200

$Apple(AAPL)$ APPLE STOCK is about to release its fiscal year second quarter earnings report for 2025 in less than a week. It is scheduled on May 1, 2025. The company – together with the overall investing landscape – is experiencing material uncertainties. Here, I will divide these uncertainties into two buckets and analyze their impacts on the stock. The first bucket includes changes that can impact APPLE STOCK’s specific operations, particularly the potential changes in tariff rates that can impact APPLE STOCK profitability metrics. The second bucket will include changes that are more macroeconomic and impact the risk premium of APPLE STOCK shares. As you will see, my overall conclusion is that the risks are already priced in, making APPLE STOCK
Apple FQ2 preview: buy and forget at $200

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