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长期主义的Cooper
05-08
1
Ahead of Pop Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted "sell": overseas cooling, domestic weakness, may turn negative for the whole year.
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However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on the trendy toy giant and lowering the target price from HK$157 to HK$140, which still has about 14% downside potential compared to the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social media platform \"Xueqiu\" that he had already listed coal stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>They all switched to Pop Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It's a great company, and our investment has yielded a good return. Thank you very much, and we will definitely come back again in the future. This statement quickly triggered a market follow-up, with southbound funds and retail investors pouring in, becoming the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, in his first-quarter earnings forecast report released on May 7, Deutsche Bank analyst Sammi Xu issued a clear warning about Pop Mart's fundamentals:<strong>Overseas markets continue to weaken month-on-month, and the popularity of domestic IPs is showing signs of fatigue. If the current trend continues, revenue for the whole of 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast differs significantly from the mainstream market judgment. The bank expects Pop Mart's adjusted net profit to be RMB 11.5 billion in 2026, a 12% year-on-year decrease and about 24% lower than the market consensus expectation of RMB 15.2 billion. Deutsche Bank also lowered its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to approximately RMB 36.5 billion and cut its net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's increased holdings boosted sentiment, causing the stock price to rebound in the short term.</h2>The core force driving Pop Mart's recent stock price surge comes from the continuous statements and actions of well-known investor Duan Yongping. According to a Deutsche Bank research report, Duan Yongping manages over $17 billion in US stock assets through his subsidiary H&H International Investment. He is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style, and his bullish comments on the \"Xueqiu\" platform have a significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to a Deutsche Bank research report, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Pop Mart put options in April at strike prices between HK$145 and HK$150. If all options were exercised, the corresponding position would account for approximately 3% of Pop Mart's total share capital. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with a strike price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7, he further announced the sale of other Hong Kong stock holdings and directly bought Pop Mart underlying shares. The aforementioned operations have continued to boost southbound capital inflows and retail investor attention, becoming the main source of recent stock price momentum.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">Q1 Preview: Overseas markets saw a significant quarter-on-quarter decline, while domestic markets relied on a low base to support the market.</h2>Pop Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and hold its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue for the first quarter to be approximately RMB 8.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73%, but this impressive figure is largely due to the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>By region, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and a low base. Online sales increased by 86% year-on-year, and offline same-store sales growth (SSSG) reached 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend in overseas markets has made Deutsche Bank clearly cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline by 27% month-on-month.</strong>Europe saw the largest decline at 41%, North America saw a 36% drop, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a drop of about 18%. Although overseas markets still grew by about 60% year-on-year, this was mainly due to the extremely low base in the first quarter of 2025, which may not reflect the true demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market interpreted the management conference call differently—some investors saw it as a positive signal of improved transparency for the company, while others saw the delay in the release of operating data and the arrangement of the first conference call as early warning signs of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP fatigue is spreading, and the domestic market is showing signs of structural slowdown.</h2>A deeper concern lies in the fact that the popularity of Pop Mart's core IP in the domestic market is waning. The research report points out that<strong>The prices of recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have fallen significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand trading price of the Monster x Sanrio co-branded model is as much as 40% off the offer price; The latest \"Twinkle Twinkle\" series was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series and disappointing market expectations for its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank has extrapolated the monthly e-commerce trends for March 2026 to the end of the year, and the calculations show that domestic e-commerce sales may decline by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. Based on this, the bank concluded that a structural slowdown in Pop Mart's domestic market may have begun to emerge in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarterly forecasts, the domestic market is expected to see quarterly changes of -19%, -2%, +14%, and -9% respectively in 2026, while the overseas market is expected to see changes of -27%, -4%, +12%, and -5%, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2% in total revenue for the year. The brief rebound in the third quarter was mainly attributed to the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Earnings forecasts are significantly lower than market consensus expectations, and operating leverage is facing a reversal.</h2>Deutsche Bank's profit forecast for Pop Mart in 2026 differs significantly from the mainstream market assessment. The bank expects full-year revenue of 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the market consensus expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; Adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the market consensus expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share are forecast at RMB 8.51, 25% lower than the market consensus expectation.</p><p>In addition to pressure on sales, the reversal in operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Pop Mart's EBIT margin is expected to reach 45% in 2025, far exceeding the general level of less than 20% among its retail peers. However, with the decline in same-store sales growth and the high fixed costs brought about by opening flagship stores in core business districts in Europe and the United States, the pressure of shrinking profit margins cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp rise in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also raised Deutsche Bank's concerns about potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which it believes could further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank has lowered its net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF target price from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the expected P/E for 2026. The bank maintained its sell rating, noting that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to approximately 16.4 times the expected P/E for 2026, and the valuation still has downside potential.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors are focusing on four key areas, with Labubu 4.0 being a key variable.</h2>The report outlines four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management conference call.</p><p>Firstly, the month-on-month sales trends in various overseas regions. Since Pop Mart typically only discloses year-on-year growth rates rather than absolute sales figures, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to understand the true momentum of each region.</p><p>Secondly, the latest sales figures for April and May. Given that the conference call will be held in mid-May, the market is hoping to receive an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, guidance on full-year operating profit margin. At the 2025 annual results conference, management mentioned that the operating profit margin would only narrow by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026. However, Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Pop Mart Chairman Wang Ning recently hinted in an interview that the series would bring \"brand new content,\" but the release date had previously been postponed. The market is closely assessing whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ahead of Pop Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted \"sell\": overseas cooling, domestic weakness, may turn negative for the whole year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAhead of Pop Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted \"sell\": overseas cooling, domestic weakness, may turn negative for the whole year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-08 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Well-known investor Duan Yongping's high-profile increase in holdings boosted market sentiment.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Pop Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on the trendy toy giant and lowering the target price from HK$157 to HK$140, which still has about 14% downside potential compared to the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social media platform \"Xueqiu\" that he had already listed coal stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>They all switched to Pop Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It's a great company, and our investment has yielded a good return. Thank you very much, and we will definitely come back again in the future. This statement quickly triggered a market follow-up, with southbound funds and retail investors pouring in, becoming the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, in his first-quarter earnings forecast report released on May 7, Deutsche Bank analyst Sammi Xu issued a clear warning about Pop Mart's fundamentals:<strong>Overseas markets continue to weaken month-on-month, and the popularity of domestic IPs is showing signs of fatigue. If the current trend continues, revenue for the whole of 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast differs significantly from the mainstream market judgment. The bank expects Pop Mart's adjusted net profit to be RMB 11.5 billion in 2026, a 12% year-on-year decrease and about 24% lower than the market consensus expectation of RMB 15.2 billion. Deutsche Bank also lowered its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to approximately RMB 36.5 billion and cut its net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's increased holdings boosted sentiment, causing the stock price to rebound in the short term.</h2>The core force driving Pop Mart's recent stock price surge comes from the continuous statements and actions of well-known investor Duan Yongping. According to a Deutsche Bank research report, Duan Yongping manages over $17 billion in US stock assets through his subsidiary H&H International Investment. He is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style, and his bullish comments on the \"Xueqiu\" platform have a significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to a Deutsche Bank research report, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Pop Mart put options in April at strike prices between HK$145 and HK$150. If all options were exercised, the corresponding position would account for approximately 3% of Pop Mart's total share capital. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with a strike price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7, he further announced the sale of other Hong Kong stock holdings and directly bought Pop Mart underlying shares. The aforementioned operations have continued to boost southbound capital inflows and retail investor attention, becoming the main source of recent stock price momentum.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">Q1 Preview: Overseas markets saw a significant quarter-on-quarter decline, while domestic markets relied on a low base to support the market.</h2>Pop Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and hold its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue for the first quarter to be approximately RMB 8.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73%, but this impressive figure is largely due to the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>By region, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and a low base. Online sales increased by 86% year-on-year, and offline same-store sales growth (SSSG) reached 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend in overseas markets has made Deutsche Bank clearly cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline by 27% month-on-month.</strong>Europe saw the largest decline at 41%, North America saw a 36% drop, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a drop of about 18%. Although overseas markets still grew by about 60% year-on-year, this was mainly due to the extremely low base in the first quarter of 2025, which may not reflect the true demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market interpreted the management conference call differently—some investors saw it as a positive signal of improved transparency for the company, while others saw the delay in the release of operating data and the arrangement of the first conference call as early warning signs of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP fatigue is spreading, and the domestic market is showing signs of structural slowdown.</h2>A deeper concern lies in the fact that the popularity of Pop Mart's core IP in the domestic market is waning. The research report points out that<strong>The prices of recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have fallen significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand trading price of the Monster x Sanrio co-branded model is as much as 40% off the offer price; The latest \"Twinkle Twinkle\" series was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series and disappointing market expectations for its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank has extrapolated the monthly e-commerce trends for March 2026 to the end of the year, and the calculations show that domestic e-commerce sales may decline by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. Based on this, the bank concluded that a structural slowdown in Pop Mart's domestic market may have begun to emerge in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarterly forecasts, the domestic market is expected to see quarterly changes of -19%, -2%, +14%, and -9% respectively in 2026, while the overseas market is expected to see changes of -27%, -4%, +12%, and -5%, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2% in total revenue for the year. The brief rebound in the third quarter was mainly attributed to the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Earnings forecasts are significantly lower than market consensus expectations, and operating leverage is facing a reversal.</h2>Deutsche Bank's profit forecast for Pop Mart in 2026 differs significantly from the mainstream market assessment. The bank expects full-year revenue of 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the market consensus expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; Adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the market consensus expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share are forecast at RMB 8.51, 25% lower than the market consensus expectation.</p><p>In addition to pressure on sales, the reversal in operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Pop Mart's EBIT margin is expected to reach 45% in 2025, far exceeding the general level of less than 20% among its retail peers. However, with the decline in same-store sales growth and the high fixed costs brought about by opening flagship stores in core business districts in Europe and the United States, the pressure of shrinking profit margins cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp rise in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also raised Deutsche Bank's concerns about potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which it believes could further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank has lowered its net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF target price from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the expected P/E for 2026. The bank maintained its sell rating, noting that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to approximately 16.4 times the expected P/E for 2026, and the valuation still has downside potential.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors are focusing on four key areas, with Labubu 4.0 being a key variable.</h2>The report outlines four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management conference call.</p><p>Firstly, the month-on-month sales trends in various overseas regions. Since Pop Mart typically only discloses year-on-year growth rates rather than absolute sales figures, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to understand the true momentum of each region.</p><p>Secondly, the latest sales figures for April and May. Given that the conference call will be held in mid-May, the market is hoping to receive an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, guidance on full-year operating profit margin. At the 2025 annual results conference, management mentioned that the operating profit margin would only narrow by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026. However, Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Pop Mart Chairman Wang Ning recently hinted in an interview that the series would bring \"brand new content,\" but the release date had previously been postponed. The market is closely assessing whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29dcd24b023d4290cb189dcda6d718e","relate_stocks":{"LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0499858602.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","09992":"泡泡玛特","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","SG9999002950.SGD":"United Asian Growth Opportunities SGD","BK1224":"专卖店","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","PMRTY":"Pop Mart International Group Limited"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2633438275","content_text":"知名投资人段永平高调增持提振市场情绪，泡泡玛特股价周五单日一度涨近6%。然而，德意志银行在前一天发布研报，对这家潮玩巨头维持卖出评级，并将目标价从157港元下调至140港元，与当前市价相比仍有约14%的下行空间。段永平在社交平台\"雪球\"发文称，已将煤炭股中国神华全部换成泡泡玛特，并调侃道\"神华是一家很好的公司，我们的投资也获得了很好的回报，在此谢过，将来有机会还会再回来。\"这一表态迅速引发市场跟风，南向资金及散户买盘涌入，成为近期股价反弹的主要催化剂。然而，德银分析师Sammi Xu在5月7日发布的一季度业绩前瞻报告中，对泡泡玛特的基本面发出明确警告：海外市场环比持续走弱，国内IP热度出现疲态，若当前趋势延续，2026年全年营收可能出现同比负增长。德银的预测与市场主流判断存在显著分歧。该行预计2026年泡泡玛特调整后净利润为115亿元人民币，同比下降12%，较市场一致预期的152亿元低出约24%。德银同步将全年营收预测下调14%至约365亿元，并将2026至2028年净利润预测削减16%至28%。段永平增持提振情绪，股价短线反弹推动泡泡玛特近期股价走强的核心力量，来自知名投资人段永平的持续表态与操作。据德银研报，段永平通过旗下H&H International Investment管理逾170亿美元的美股资产，以深度价值与长期投资风格著称，其在\"雪球\"平台上的看多言论对散户及南向投资者具有显著号召力。德银研报显示，段永平于4月在行权价145至150港元之间卖出大量泡泡玛特认沽期权，若全部行权，对应持仓规模约占泡泡玛特总股本的3%。4月期权到期后，他继续卖出行权价155港元的认沽期权。5月7日，他进一步宣布卖出其他港股持仓，直接买入泡泡玛特正股。上述操作持续推高南向资金流入及散户关注度，成为股价近期动能的主要来源。一季度预览：海外环比大幅下滑，国内靠低基数撑场泡泡玛特预计于5月中旬发布一季度运营数据，并首次举办季度管理层电话会议。德银预计，一季度总营收约为89亿元人民币，同比增长73%，但这一亮眼数字在很大程度上依赖于去年同期的低基数效应。分地区来看，国内市场一季度预计同比增长85%，主要受节假日销售旺季及低基数驱动，线上销售同比增长86%，线下同店销售增速（SSSG）达42%。然而，海外市场的环比走势令德银明显偏于谨慎：该行预计海外销售额环比下降27%，其中欧洲降幅最大，达41%，北美下滑36%，亚洲相对抗跌，降幅约18%。尽管海外市场同比仍有约60%的增长，但这主要源于2025年一季度的极低基数，或不反映真实需求动能。德银还注意到，市场对于此次管理层电话会议的解读存在分歧——部分投资者将其视为公司提升透明度的积极信号，另一些人则将运营数据发布时间的推迟，以及首次举办电话会议的安排，视为潜在下行风险的预警信号。IP疲态蔓延，国内市场出现结构性降速迹象更深层担忧，在于泡泡玛特核心IP在国内市场的热度正在消退。研报指出，\"The Monsters\"（Labubu）及\"Twinkle Twinkle\"等近期发售系列在二级市场的价格已明显回落。其中，Monster x Sanrio联名款的二手交易价格较发售价折价高达40%；\"Twinkle Twinkle\"最新系列同样以折价成交，未能复制此前Labubu系列的溢价效应，令市场此前对其\"类Labubu\"表现的预期落空。德银将2026年3月的电商月度趋势外推至年底，测算结果显示，2026年下半年国内电商销售额可能同比下降17%。该行据此判断，泡泡玛特国内市场的结构性放缓可能已于一季度开始显现。在季度环比预测上，预计2026年国内市场各季度环比变动分别为-19%、-2%、+14%、-9%，海外市场则为-27%、-4%、+12%、-5%，全年合计营收同比下降约2%。三季度的短暂回升，主要寄望于\"Labubu 4.0\"的发售以及世界杯相关销售拉动。盈利预测大幅低于市场一致预期，运营杠杆面临反转德银对泡泡玛特2026年的盈利预测，与市场主流判断存在显著落差。该行预计全年营收365亿元，较市场一致预期的455亿元低约20%；调整后净利润116亿元，较市场一致预期的152亿元低约24%；每股盈利预测8.51元人民币，较市场一致预期低25%。除销售端承压外，运营杠杆的反转将进一步侵蚀利润率。泡泡玛特2025年EBIT利润率高达45%，远超零售同业普遍低于20%的水平，但随着同店销售增速下滑，叠加在欧美核心商圈开设旗舰店带来的高额固定成本，利润率收缩压力不容忽视。此外，2025年底库存水平的大幅攀升，也引发德银对潜在库存积压及清货风险的警惕，认为这可能进一步损害品牌价值与财务稳健性。德银将2026至2028年净利润预测下调16%至28%，并将DCF目标价从157港元下调至140港元，对应2026年预期市盈率14倍。该行维持卖出评级，并指出当前股价162.2港元对应2026年预期市盈率约16.4倍，估值仍存在下行空间。投资者关注四大焦点，Labubu 4.0成关键变量报告梳理了投资者在即将到来的管理层电话会议前最为关注的四个议题。其一，海外各地区的环比销售趋势。由于泡泡玛特通常仅披露同比增速而非绝对销售额，市场缺乏官方的环比数据，投资者迫切希望了解各区域的真实动能。其二，4月及5月的最新销售情况。鉴于电话会议将于5月中旬举行，市场希望获得一季度结束后的近期销售趋势更新。其三，全年运营利润率指引。管理层在2025年全年业绩会上曾提及2026年前两个月运营利润率仅收窄约1个百分点，但德银认为，春节后国内销售的月度走软，以及海外旗舰店的高额运营成本，使得这一利润率水平难以持续。其四，\"Labubu 4.0\"的发售进展。泡泡玛特董事长王宁近期在采访中暗示该系列将带来\"全新内容\"，但发售时间此前已有推迟。市场正密切评估这一IP能否产生足够的增量销售，以扭转品牌热度下滑的趋势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.98,"PMRTY":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":561964415996216,"gmtCreate":1778230132909,"gmtModify":1778230134895,"author":{"id":"4228386159123642","authorId":"4228386159123642","name":"长期主义的Cooper","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228386159123642","authorIdStr":"4228386159123642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/561964415996216","repostId":"2633438275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2633438275","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1778229057,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2633438275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-05-08 16:30","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Ahead of Pop Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted \"sell\": overseas cooling, domestic weakness, may turn negative for the whole year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633438275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"知名投资人段永平高调清仓中国神华、全力押注泡泡玛特，一度带动股价单日飙涨近6%。然而德意志银行当头泼冷水：海外销售环比最高骤降41%，核心IP二手价最高折价40%，2026年营收或现负增长，预测较市场一致预期低逾24%，目标价下调至140港元并维持卖出评级。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Well-known investor Duan Yongping's high-profile increase in holdings boosted market sentiment.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Pop Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on the trendy toy giant and lowering the target price from HK$157 to HK$140, which still has about 14% downside potential compared to the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social media platform \"Xueqiu\" that he had already listed coal stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>They all switched to Pop Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It's a great company, and our investment has yielded a good return. Thank you very much, and we will definitely come back again in the future. This statement quickly triggered a market follow-up, with southbound funds and retail investors pouring in, becoming the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, in his first-quarter earnings forecast report released on May 7, Deutsche Bank analyst Sammi Xu issued a clear warning about Pop Mart's fundamentals:<strong>Overseas markets continue to weaken month-on-month, and the popularity of domestic IPs is showing signs of fatigue. If the current trend continues, revenue for the whole of 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast differs significantly from the mainstream market judgment. The bank expects Pop Mart's adjusted net profit to be RMB 11.5 billion in 2026, a 12% year-on-year decrease and about 24% lower than the market consensus expectation of RMB 15.2 billion. Deutsche Bank also lowered its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to approximately RMB 36.5 billion and cut its net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's increased holdings boosted sentiment, causing the stock price to rebound in the short term.</h2>The core force driving Pop Mart's recent stock price surge comes from the continuous statements and actions of well-known investor Duan Yongping. According to a Deutsche Bank research report, Duan Yongping manages over $17 billion in US stock assets through his subsidiary H&H International Investment. He is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style, and his bullish comments on the \"Xueqiu\" platform have a significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to a Deutsche Bank research report, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Pop Mart put options in April at strike prices between HK$145 and HK$150. If all options were exercised, the corresponding position would account for approximately 3% of Pop Mart's total share capital. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with a strike price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7, he further announced the sale of other Hong Kong stock holdings and directly bought Pop Mart underlying shares. The aforementioned operations have continued to boost southbound capital inflows and retail investor attention, becoming the main source of recent stock price momentum.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">Q1 Preview: Overseas markets saw a significant quarter-on-quarter decline, while domestic markets relied on a low base to support the market.</h2>Pop Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and hold its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue for the first quarter to be approximately RMB 8.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73%, but this impressive figure is largely due to the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>By region, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and a low base. Online sales increased by 86% year-on-year, and offline same-store sales growth (SSSG) reached 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend in overseas markets has made Deutsche Bank clearly cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline by 27% month-on-month.</strong>Europe saw the largest decline at 41%, North America saw a 36% drop, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a drop of about 18%. Although overseas markets still grew by about 60% year-on-year, this was mainly due to the extremely low base in the first quarter of 2025, which may not reflect the true demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market interpreted the management conference call differently—some investors saw it as a positive signal of improved transparency for the company, while others saw the delay in the release of operating data and the arrangement of the first conference call as early warning signs of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP fatigue is spreading, and the domestic market is showing signs of structural slowdown.</h2>A deeper concern lies in the fact that the popularity of Pop Mart's core IP in the domestic market is waning. The research report points out that<strong>The prices of recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have fallen significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand trading price of the Monster x Sanrio co-branded model is as much as 40% off the offer price; The latest \"Twinkle Twinkle\" series was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series and disappointing market expectations for its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank has extrapolated the monthly e-commerce trends for March 2026 to the end of the year, and the calculations show that domestic e-commerce sales may decline by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. Based on this, the bank concluded that a structural slowdown in Pop Mart's domestic market may have begun to emerge in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarterly forecasts, the domestic market is expected to see quarterly changes of -19%, -2%, +14%, and -9% respectively in 2026, while the overseas market is expected to see changes of -27%, -4%, +12%, and -5%, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2% in total revenue for the year. The brief rebound in the third quarter was mainly attributed to the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Earnings forecasts are significantly lower than market consensus expectations, and operating leverage is facing a reversal.</h2>Deutsche Bank's profit forecast for Pop Mart in 2026 differs significantly from the mainstream market assessment. The bank expects full-year revenue of 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the market consensus expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; Adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the market consensus expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share are forecast at RMB 8.51, 25% lower than the market consensus expectation.</p><p>In addition to pressure on sales, the reversal in operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Pop Mart's EBIT margin is expected to reach 45% in 2025, far exceeding the general level of less than 20% among its retail peers. However, with the decline in same-store sales growth and the high fixed costs brought about by opening flagship stores in core business districts in Europe and the United States, the pressure of shrinking profit margins cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp rise in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also raised Deutsche Bank's concerns about potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which it believes could further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank has lowered its net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF target price from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the expected P/E for 2026. The bank maintained its sell rating, noting that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to approximately 16.4 times the expected P/E for 2026, and the valuation still has downside potential.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors are focusing on four key areas, with Labubu 4.0 being a key variable.</h2>The report outlines four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management conference call.</p><p>Firstly, the month-on-month sales trends in various overseas regions. Since Pop Mart typically only discloses year-on-year growth rates rather than absolute sales figures, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to understand the true momentum of each region.</p><p>Secondly, the latest sales figures for April and May. Given that the conference call will be held in mid-May, the market is hoping to receive an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, guidance on full-year operating profit margin. At the 2025 annual results conference, management mentioned that the operating profit margin would only narrow by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026. However, Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Pop Mart Chairman Wang Ning recently hinted in an interview that the series would bring \"brand new content,\" but the release date had previously been postponed. The market is closely assessing whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ahead of Pop Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted \"sell\": overseas cooling, domestic weakness, may turn negative for the whole year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAhead of Pop Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted \"sell\": overseas cooling, domestic weakness, may turn negative for the whole year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-08 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Well-known investor Duan Yongping's high-profile increase in holdings boosted market sentiment.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Pop Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on the trendy toy giant and lowering the target price from HK$157 to HK$140, which still has about 14% downside potential compared to the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social media platform \"Xueqiu\" that he had already listed coal stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>They all switched to Pop Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It's a great company, and our investment has yielded a good return. Thank you very much, and we will definitely come back again in the future. This statement quickly triggered a market follow-up, with southbound funds and retail investors pouring in, becoming the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, in his first-quarter earnings forecast report released on May 7, Deutsche Bank analyst Sammi Xu issued a clear warning about Pop Mart's fundamentals:<strong>Overseas markets continue to weaken month-on-month, and the popularity of domestic IPs is showing signs of fatigue. If the current trend continues, revenue for the whole of 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast differs significantly from the mainstream market judgment. The bank expects Pop Mart's adjusted net profit to be RMB 11.5 billion in 2026, a 12% year-on-year decrease and about 24% lower than the market consensus expectation of RMB 15.2 billion. Deutsche Bank also lowered its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to approximately RMB 36.5 billion and cut its net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's increased holdings boosted sentiment, causing the stock price to rebound in the short term.</h2>The core force driving Pop Mart's recent stock price surge comes from the continuous statements and actions of well-known investor Duan Yongping. According to a Deutsche Bank research report, Duan Yongping manages over $17 billion in US stock assets through his subsidiary H&H International Investment. He is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style, and his bullish comments on the \"Xueqiu\" platform have a significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to a Deutsche Bank research report, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Pop Mart put options in April at strike prices between HK$145 and HK$150. If all options were exercised, the corresponding position would account for approximately 3% of Pop Mart's total share capital. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with a strike price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7, he further announced the sale of other Hong Kong stock holdings and directly bought Pop Mart underlying shares. The aforementioned operations have continued to boost southbound capital inflows and retail investor attention, becoming the main source of recent stock price momentum.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">Q1 Preview: Overseas markets saw a significant quarter-on-quarter decline, while domestic markets relied on a low base to support the market.</h2>Pop Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and hold its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue for the first quarter to be approximately RMB 8.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73%, but this impressive figure is largely due to the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>By region, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and a low base. Online sales increased by 86% year-on-year, and offline same-store sales growth (SSSG) reached 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend in overseas markets has made Deutsche Bank clearly cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline by 27% month-on-month.</strong>Europe saw the largest decline at 41%, North America saw a 36% drop, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a drop of about 18%. Although overseas markets still grew by about 60% year-on-year, this was mainly due to the extremely low base in the first quarter of 2025, which may not reflect the true demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market interpreted the management conference call differently—some investors saw it as a positive signal of improved transparency for the company, while others saw the delay in the release of operating data and the arrangement of the first conference call as early warning signs of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP fatigue is spreading, and the domestic market is showing signs of structural slowdown.</h2>A deeper concern lies in the fact that the popularity of Pop Mart's core IP in the domestic market is waning. The research report points out that<strong>The prices of recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have fallen significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand trading price of the Monster x Sanrio co-branded model is as much as 40% off the offer price; The latest \"Twinkle Twinkle\" series was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series and disappointing market expectations for its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank has extrapolated the monthly e-commerce trends for March 2026 to the end of the year, and the calculations show that domestic e-commerce sales may decline by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. Based on this, the bank concluded that a structural slowdown in Pop Mart's domestic market may have begun to emerge in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarterly forecasts, the domestic market is expected to see quarterly changes of -19%, -2%, +14%, and -9% respectively in 2026, while the overseas market is expected to see changes of -27%, -4%, +12%, and -5%, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2% in total revenue for the year. The brief rebound in the third quarter was mainly attributed to the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Earnings forecasts are significantly lower than market consensus expectations, and operating leverage is facing a reversal.</h2>Deutsche Bank's profit forecast for Pop Mart in 2026 differs significantly from the mainstream market assessment. The bank expects full-year revenue of 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the market consensus expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; Adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the market consensus expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share are forecast at RMB 8.51, 25% lower than the market consensus expectation.</p><p>In addition to pressure on sales, the reversal in operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Pop Mart's EBIT margin is expected to reach 45% in 2025, far exceeding the general level of less than 20% among its retail peers. However, with the decline in same-store sales growth and the high fixed costs brought about by opening flagship stores in core business districts in Europe and the United States, the pressure of shrinking profit margins cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp rise in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also raised Deutsche Bank's concerns about potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which it believes could further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank has lowered its net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF target price from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the expected P/E for 2026. The bank maintained its sell rating, noting that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to approximately 16.4 times the expected P/E for 2026, and the valuation still has downside potential.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors are focusing on four key areas, with Labubu 4.0 being a key variable.</h2>The report outlines four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management conference call.</p><p>Firstly, the month-on-month sales trends in various overseas regions. Since Pop Mart typically only discloses year-on-year growth rates rather than absolute sales figures, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to understand the true momentum of each region.</p><p>Secondly, the latest sales figures for April and May. Given that the conference call will be held in mid-May, the market is hoping to receive an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, guidance on full-year operating profit margin. At the 2025 annual results conference, management mentioned that the operating profit margin would only narrow by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026. However, Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Pop Mart Chairman Wang Ning recently hinted in an interview that the series would bring \"brand new content,\" but the release date had previously been postponed. The market is closely assessing whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29dcd24b023d4290cb189dcda6d718e","relate_stocks":{"LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0499858602.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - 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