swq23_興旺發
swq23_興旺發
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avatarswq23_興旺發
10-25 07:04
Oil breaking $100 is adding pressure to tech already weak on AI capex fears. This rotation to defensives makes sense short term, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco and Eli Lilly all showing safe haven bid. I think Berkshire Hathaway with $360B cash and buybacks is best positioned if selloff continues, but defensives look extended now. I see this as one day flight to safety unless oil holds above $100, then AI valuations need to reset further before rebound.
Alphabet's leap to the #2 spot with a $3.89T valuation is insane. The 2.4% jump shows investors are betting big on its AI play. I think Alphabet’s platform‑scale advantage will keep fueling growth, but Nvidia’s AI hardware edge is a wild variable in the race. Looking into 2026, I believe Alphabet can hit $4T if it keeps innovating in AI services and expands its cloud + advertising synergies. The key will be sustaining the AI momentum and managing competition from chip giants.
Alphabet hitting $4 T is a huge win for AI, and I think the market is still underpricing its AI money‑making potential. If Apple really teams up with Gemini for Siri, it would boost Alphabet's big‑model leadership and make its AI story even stronger. I believe Apple leaning on Gemini would *strengthen* Apple's long‑term AI narrative because it shows Alphabet's tech is valuable enough for a major partner like Apple. So, yes – the stock could hit $400 in 2026 if AI adoption keeps growing!
avatarswq23_興旺發
10-25 07:18
Worth noting today is the defensive rotation after DJI down 1.23% to 52215, SPX down 0.52% and IXIC holding better down 0.21%. Market is weighing oil breaking 100 adding inflation pressure and the Tesla SpaceX merger hype reversing with SpaceX down 9.14% and Tesla down 3.08% on governance and dilution concerns.  Stocks to watch: Tesla and SpaceX for follow through selling, BigBear AI after that Google deal still volatile, Lam Research which dropped 17% last week needs to show recovery, and defensives like Procter and Gamble, Costco, Walmart, Coca-Cola and Berkshire for continued safe haven flow.  Trading plan: I am not chasing defensives at highs, waiting for tech to wash out. If Nasdaq holds 25900, could look for bounce in oversold AI names, otherwise stay defensive with cash he
avatarswq23_興旺發
10-25 07:12
SpaceX falling 9.14% and Tesla 3.08% shows how messy this unconfirmed merger idea is. Governance, exchange terms and regulatory scrutiny would complicate any deal. Bulls like the SpaceX 14.58B quarterly revenue including 7.56B from AI and synergies across Starlink, compute, energy and autonomy, but bears are right to worry about dilution and control conflicts for Tesla shareholders. Until real terms emerge, dilution risk should outweigh synergy hype in valuation in my view.
avatarswq23_興旺發
10-25 07:07
This defensive rotation looks real with Procter & Gamble up 5.58%, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Walmart, Costco and Berkshire Hathaway up 1.32% all outperforming as AI valuations compress. Berkshire's roughly 360B cash, renewed buybacks, Taylor Morrison deal and bigger Alphabet stake show Buffett deploying capital while tech stalls. Bulls see steadier earnings, but I agree with bears that defensives are extended. If tech rebounds, this could reverse fast. For a lasting shift we need earnings follow-through, not just one flight to safety.
TSMC just blew past earnings expectations, shooting its net profit up 35% YoY to T$505.7B and revenue climbing 20.5% YoY to T$1.05T. In USD terms, revenue hit $33.7B, a 25.5% YoY jump, all driven by solid AI demand. EPS landed at T$19.50, showing TSMC is riding the AI wave big time. My take: The AI boom is clearly fueling TSMC's growth, and the market's reaction—TSM spiking 3% overnight—shows investors are bullish on its AI exposure. The key question is whether this AI momentum can stay strong into 2026 and if the stock still has room to run given the accelerating margins and profits. What to watch: Keep an eye on TSMC's upcoming capex plans and AI‑chip demand forecasts, as they'll dictate whether the earnings surge is sustainable or just a short‑term spike. Also, compare TSMC's valua
Tesla (TSLA) is my 2026 pick because it sits at the intersection of AI, energy, and high‑growth mobility markets, leveraging its advanced autonomous driving software, expanding global manufacturing footprint, and diversified energy product line (solar + battery storage) to drive sustained revenue and margin expansion, while its strong brand and innovation pipeline position it to capture significant market share in the electrification and AI‑autonomy trend, making it a high‑volatility, high‑reward play aligned with the “AI, space, chips, energy” theme.
Hey, so gold just jumped to around $4,600 and Goldman Sachs is saying it might go all the way to $6,000 by 2026. I think that's a pretty big goal, but it could happen if the world stays super uncertain and lots of big banks keep buying gold. Right now, gold is getting pushed up by two things: 1. Basics – central banks (like China and India) are buying a lot of gold to protect their money. 2. Fear – people are worried about politics and the stock market (especially the big tech stocks), so they put money into gold as a safe place. For a newbie, think of gold like a safety net. When the economy feels shaky, gold usually goes up. If the uncertainty keeps growing and the U.S. cuts interest rates, gold could keep climbing. My opinion: I believe gold can reach $5,000 pretty soon, but hitting $6,
Micron (MU) and SNDK just blew past 10%, crushing the market's volatility as capital swings back into the AI infrastructure trade. Morgan Stanley just jacked Micron's price target from $350 to $450, slapping an Overweight rating on it and pointing to the HBM4 capacity ramp as the big catalyst. SNDK's surge shows the storage sector's momentum is still firing, riding the AI data‑center buildout wave. Key takeaway: the AI‑driven memory boom is making MU a sweet pick, with the $450 target looking doable if the HBM4 rollout stays on track. Keep an eye on supply‑chain updates and demand from data‑center builds to gauge next moves.

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