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步步高升668
08-16
R/s wow I think the the e
Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion in off-balance-sheet hidden liabilities raise concerns among bond investors.
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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wow I think the the e","listText":"R/s wow I think the the e","text":"R/s wow I think the the e","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/597302946882416","repostId":"2659179770","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659179770","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786842516,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2659179770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-08-16 09:08","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion in off-balance-sheet hidden liabilities raise concerns among bond investors.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659179770","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着英伟达宣布5000亿美元AI融资合作，债券市场对AI公司约700亿美元表外债务的担忧骤然升温。这一结构允许英伟达、博通等芯片巨头为客户债务兜底，却无需将负债计入自身账表。多家机构警告这是顺周期的金融工程，一旦行业下行将集中引爆风险。","content":"<p><html><body>The AI chip financing boom has spurred a new type of off-balance-sheet guarantee structure, which has reached $70 billion, and the bond market is struggling with how to price this hidden risk.</p><p>According to a Bloomberg report on August 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Prior to the announcement of the $500 billion financing partnership, bond investors had already begun to feel uneasy about the approximately $70 billion in \"ghost liabilities\" outside the balance sheets of major AI companies. These contingent liabilities, which are usually inconspicuous, may suddenly be realized at the worst possible moment.</p><p>The vehicle for these liabilities is a type called \"<strong>residual value guarantee</strong>\"(Residual Value Guarantee, RVG) structured arrangements, which may amount to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">Tens of billions</a>US dollars. The essence of this mechanism is that Nvidia uses its strong credit rating to endorse its clients' financing, helping them reduce borrowing costs.</p><p><h2>How does this structure work?</h2>A typical structure has three layers: a special purpose vehicle (SPV) borrows money to purchase chips, and the borrowing is supported by the cash flow of contracts signed by the company using the technology; If the company stops making payments, the assets will be leased again or sold to repay the remaining debts; If there is still a gap, the \"guarantor\" will make up the difference.</p><p><ol><li>A special purpose vehicle (SPV) borrows money to buy chips;</li><li>The loan was backed by the cash flow from a usage contract with an AI company;</li><li>If the AI company stops making payments, the chips will be sublet or sold to pay off debts;</li><li>If there is still a gap,<strong>The guarantor (chip manufacturer) shall make up the difference.</strong>。</li></ol>This is a \"surplus value guarantee\"—the chip seller acts as the last resort.</p><p>For Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For these chip giants, this structure is a \"bargain\": it helps customers reduce financing costs and expand sales without recording any debt on their books.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Goal</a>This is directly stated in its documentation: \"The probability of payment by the RVG guarantor is not high, therefore no liabilities have been recorded to date.\"</p><p>Although the probability is \"low,\" it is becoming increasingly difficult to convince the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>This logic can be extended to the field of chip financing. In a project codenamed \"Big Sky,\" Broadcom guaranteed a $35 billion debt transaction—Apollo Global Management and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>The group and other investors will fund the purchase of customized AI chips and then lease them to Anthropic for use. This arrangement resulted in senior debt receiving an investment-grade rating, thus lowering financing costs.</p><p>Unlike data center deals spanning decades, chip financing cycles are shorter, typically amortized in about five years to match the pace of rapid technology depreciation. This means that collateral exposure narrows rapidly over time, giving lenders a relatively clear exit horizon.</p><p><h2>Nvidia's entry into the market may lead to another leap in scale.</h2>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted on the X platform that the company may provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for related opportunities, \"evaluated on a case-by-case basis\".</p><p>\"Our role is to help unleash a large pool of independent capital while maintaining disciplined exposure,\" he wrote.</p><p>Nvidia stated that the collaboration aims to introduce external capital and alleviate the problem of \"circular financing\"—the closed-loop dilemma in which AI companies fund each other's products. The six U.S. investment institutions involved in this $500 billion financing include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。</p><p>Broadcom's AI XPV platform is an extension of the \"Big Sky\" deal, which, according to Bank of America strategists, could accumulate $370 billion in senior debt by mid-2029. This means that the potential scale of off-balance-sheet guarantees goes far beyond this.</p><p><h2>Rating agencies have issued warnings</h2>Rating agencies are not indifferent to this.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>A report stated, \"The main risk lies in the intensive occurrence of such transactions in the short term.\" \"We believe that a significant increase in Broadcom's contingent liabilities, even if the leverage ratio of its existing debt remains low, will limit Broadcom's financial flexibility and could put downward pressure on the company's creditworthiness.\"</p><p>Moody's also noted that Broadcom's guarantees for third-party leasing \"partially offset its strong business advantages,\" but further guarantees would have a negative impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating characterizes the residual value support provided by Broadcom as a \"contingent liability obligation\" and states that this portion will be included in the adjusted debt calculation.</p><p>Under U.S. accounting standards, entities typically only include contingent liabilities in their balance sheets when losses are \"probable and reasonably estimated\"; otherwise, they are only required to be disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. This is precisely the institutional basis that allows these liabilities to remain off the balance sheet.</p><p><h2>Investors: Financial engineering is masking real risks</h2>Bond investors' concerns focus on one point: when will these off-balance-sheet contingent liabilities become real on-balance-sheet losses?</p><p>Mariya Entina, portfolio manager at DoubleLine, said:</p><p><strong>It's like exploiting loopholes in the system, trying to get preferential treatment from rating agencies to get the highest possible rating... We are entering the era of financial engineering. This is one of my concerns: when you engage in financial engineering, you are obscuring financial reality.</strong></p><p>In their report, CreditSights analysts likened Nvidia's residual value support to \"selling a put option.\"</p><p>\"This is pro-cyclical and exacerbates boom-bust potential,\" they wrote. \"In a boom phase, this guarantee has almost no cost; but in a severe, sharp downturn, it becomes most critical when customers default and the hardware market value falls.\"</p><p>\"This is not your average investment-grade credit underwriting,\" said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW. \"It's much more complex than that. Given its off-balance-sheet nature, the tail risk is high.\"</p><p><h2>Some people believe the worry is excessive.</h2>Not everyone is pessimistic.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>John Lloyd, global head of multi-segment and corporate credit at Investors, believes that triggering residual value support requires extreme conditions: \"You have to see the growth rate of token usage plummet, which is not what we are seeing at all.\"</p><p>He also pointed out that these companies \"are not trying to hide contingent liabilities, but to finance them.\"</p><p>The supporters' logic is that chip demand will continue to exceed supply in the coming years; The debt structure is designed to be fully amortized over time, reducing the potential costs of residual value support. Technology risks ultimately fall on large technology companies that have enough cash to bear the losses.</p><p>But the critics' counterargument is equally forceful: these guarantees are triggered precisely when the industry is in a downturn, and that is precisely when chipmakers' own profits are under pressure. The problem lies in the fact that guarantees and risks are highly synchronized in terms of cycles.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion in off-balance-sheet hidden liabilities raise concerns among bond investors.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion in off-balance-sheet hidden liabilities raise concerns among bond investors.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-08-16 09:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>The AI chip financing boom has spurred a new type of off-balance-sheet guarantee structure, which has reached $70 billion, and the bond market is struggling with how to price this hidden risk.</p><p>According to a Bloomberg report on August 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Prior to the announcement of the $500 billion financing partnership, bond investors had already begun to feel uneasy about the approximately $70 billion in \"ghost liabilities\" outside the balance sheets of major AI companies. These contingent liabilities, which are usually inconspicuous, may suddenly be realized at the worst possible moment.</p><p>The vehicle for these liabilities is a type called \"<strong>residual value guarantee</strong>\"(Residual Value Guarantee, RVG) structured arrangements, which may amount to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">Tens of billions</a>US dollars. The essence of this mechanism is that Nvidia uses its strong credit rating to endorse its clients' financing, helping them reduce borrowing costs.</p><p><h2>How does this structure work?</h2>A typical structure has three layers: a special purpose vehicle (SPV) borrows money to purchase chips, and the borrowing is supported by the cash flow of contracts signed by the company using the technology; If the company stops making payments, the assets will be leased again or sold to repay the remaining debts; If there is still a gap, the \"guarantor\" will make up the difference.</p><p><ol><li>A special purpose vehicle (SPV) borrows money to buy chips;</li><li>The loan was backed by the cash flow from a usage contract with an AI company;</li><li>If the AI company stops making payments, the chips will be sublet or sold to pay off debts;</li><li>If there is still a gap,<strong>The guarantor (chip manufacturer) shall make up the difference.</strong>。</li></ol>This is a \"surplus value guarantee\"—the chip seller acts as the last resort.</p><p>For Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For these chip giants, this structure is a \"bargain\": it helps customers reduce financing costs and expand sales without recording any debt on their books.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Goal</a>This is directly stated in its documentation: \"The probability of payment by the RVG guarantor is not high, therefore no liabilities have been recorded to date.\"</p><p>Although the probability is \"low,\" it is becoming increasingly difficult to convince the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>This logic can be extended to the field of chip financing. In a project codenamed \"Big Sky,\" Broadcom guaranteed a $35 billion debt transaction—Apollo Global Management and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>The group and other investors will fund the purchase of customized AI chips and then lease them to Anthropic for use. This arrangement resulted in senior debt receiving an investment-grade rating, thus lowering financing costs.</p><p>Unlike data center deals spanning decades, chip financing cycles are shorter, typically amortized in about five years to match the pace of rapid technology depreciation. This means that collateral exposure narrows rapidly over time, giving lenders a relatively clear exit horizon.</p><p><h2>Nvidia's entry into the market may lead to another leap in scale.</h2>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted on the X platform that the company may provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for related opportunities, \"evaluated on a case-by-case basis\".</p><p>\"Our role is to help unleash a large pool of independent capital while maintaining disciplined exposure,\" he wrote.</p><p>Nvidia stated that the collaboration aims to introduce external capital and alleviate the problem of \"circular financing\"—the closed-loop dilemma in which AI companies fund each other's products. The six U.S. investment institutions involved in this $500 billion financing include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。</p><p>Broadcom's AI XPV platform is an extension of the \"Big Sky\" deal, which, according to Bank of America strategists, could accumulate $370 billion in senior debt by mid-2029. This means that the potential scale of off-balance-sheet guarantees goes far beyond this.</p><p><h2>Rating agencies have issued warnings</h2>Rating agencies are not indifferent to this.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>A report stated, \"The main risk lies in the intensive occurrence of such transactions in the short term.\" \"We believe that a significant increase in Broadcom's contingent liabilities, even if the leverage ratio of its existing debt remains low, will limit Broadcom's financial flexibility and could put downward pressure on the company's creditworthiness.\"</p><p>Moody's also noted that Broadcom's guarantees for third-party leasing \"partially offset its strong business advantages,\" but further guarantees would have a negative impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating characterizes the residual value support provided by Broadcom as a \"contingent liability obligation\" and states that this portion will be included in the adjusted debt calculation.</p><p>Under U.S. accounting standards, entities typically only include contingent liabilities in their balance sheets when losses are \"probable and reasonably estimated\"; otherwise, they are only required to be disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. This is precisely the institutional basis that allows these liabilities to remain off the balance sheet.</p><p><h2>Investors: Financial engineering is masking real risks</h2>Bond investors' concerns focus on one point: when will these off-balance-sheet contingent liabilities become real on-balance-sheet losses?</p><p>Mariya Entina, portfolio manager at DoubleLine, said:</p><p><strong>It's like exploiting loopholes in the system, trying to get preferential treatment from rating agencies to get the highest possible rating... We are entering the era of financial engineering. This is one of my concerns: when you engage in financial engineering, you are obscuring financial reality.</strong></p><p>In their report, CreditSights analysts likened Nvidia's residual value support to \"selling a put option.\"</p><p>\"This is pro-cyclical and exacerbates boom-bust potential,\" they wrote. \"In a boom phase, this guarantee has almost no cost; but in a severe, sharp downturn, it becomes most critical when customers default and the hardware market value falls.\"</p><p>\"This is not your average investment-grade credit underwriting,\" said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW. \"It's much more complex than that. Given its off-balance-sheet nature, the tail risk is high.\"</p><p><h2>Some people believe the worry is excessive.</h2>Not everyone is pessimistic.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>John Lloyd, global head of multi-segment and corporate credit at Investors, believes that triggering residual value support requires extreme conditions: \"You have to see the growth rate of token usage plummet, which is not what we are seeing at all.\"</p><p>He also pointed out that these companies \"are not trying to hide contingent liabilities, but to finance them.\"</p><p>The supporters' logic is that chip demand will continue to exceed supply in the coming years; The debt structure is designed to be fully amortized over time, reducing the potential costs of residual value support. Technology risks ultimately fall on large technology companies that have enough cash to bear the losses.</p><p>But the critics' counterargument is equally forceful: these guarantees are triggered precisely when the industry is in a downturn, and that is precisely when chipmakers' own profits are under pressure. The problem lies in the fact that guarantees and risks are highly synchronized in terms of cycles.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","BNDW":"Vanguard Total World Bond ETF","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779518","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659179770","content_text":"AI芯片融资热潮催生了一种新型表外担保结构，规模已达700亿美元，债券市场正在为如何给这笔隐性风险定价而苦恼。\n据彭博8月15日报道，就在英伟达宣布5000亿美元融资合作之前，债券投资者已开始对主要AI公司资产负债表之外约700亿美元的\"幽灵负债\"感到不安。这些或有负债平时不显山露水，却可能在最糟糕的时刻突然兑现。\n这些负债的载体，是一种名为\"剩余价值担保\"（Residual Value Guarantee，RVG）的结构性安排，金额可能高达数百亿美元。这一机制的本质是：英伟达用自身强大的信用评级为客户的融资背书，帮助客户压低借贷成本。\n这套结构如何运作\n典型结构分三层：一个特殊目的载体（SPV）借钱购买芯片，借款由使用该技术的公司所签合同现金流作为支撑；若该公司停止付款，资产将被再次租赁或出售以偿还剩余债务；若仍有缺口，则由\"担保方\"补足差额。\n\n一个特殊目的载体（SPV）借钱买芯片；\n借款由某AI公司的使用合同现金流作为支撑；\n若该AI公司停止付款，芯片被转租或出售偿债；\n若仍有缺口，由担保方（芯片厂商）补足差额。\n\n这就是\"剩余价值担保\"——芯片卖家充当了最后兜底人。\n对英伟达、博通这类芯片巨头而言，这套结构是一笔\"划算的买卖\"：帮客户降低融资成本、扩大销售，自身不在账面上记录任何债务。Meta在其文件中对此直接表述：\"RVG担保方付款概率不高，因此迄今未记录任何负债。\"\n虽然\"概率不高\"，但越来越难以让市场信服。\n博通则将这一逻辑延伸至芯片融资领域。在代号\"Big Sky\"的项目中，博通为一笔350亿美元的债务交易提供担保——Apollo全球管理和黑石集团等投资者出资购买定制AI芯片，再租赁给Anthropic使用。这一安排使高级债务获得了投资级评级，融资成本随之下降。\n与跨越数十年的数据中心交易不同，芯片融资周期更短，通常约五年摊销完毕，以匹配技术快速折旧的节奏。这意味着担保敞口随时间快速收窄，给了贷款方一个相对清晰的退出视野。\n英伟达入场，规模或再跃升\n英伟达CEO Jensen Huang在X平台发文称，公司可能为相关机会提供最高25%的残值支持机制，\"逐案评估\"。\n\"我们的角色是帮助释放一大批独立资本，同时保持有纪律的风险敞口，\"他写道。\n英伟达表示，此次合作旨在引入外部资本，缓解\"循环融资\"问题——即AI公司相互出资购买彼此产品的闭环困境。参与这笔5000亿美元融资的六家美国投资机构包括贝莱德和高盛。\n博通的AI XPV平台是\"Big Sky\"交易的延伸，据美国银行策略师估算，该平台到2029年中期可能累积3700亿美元的高级债务。这意味着表外担保的潜在规模远不止于此。\n评级机构已发出警告\n评级机构对此并非无动于衷。\n穆迪在一份报告中写道：\"主要风险在于此类交易在短期内密集发生。\"\"我们认为，博通或有义务的大幅增加，即便其现有债务的杠杆率保持较低水平，也将限制博通的财务灵活性，并可能对公司信用状况形成压制。\"\n穆迪同时指出，博通对第三方租赁的担保\"部分抵消了强劲的业务优势\"，但更多担保将带来负面影响。\n标普全球评级则将博通提供的残值支持定性为\"或有债务类义务\"，并表示将把这部分纳入调整后的债务计算。\n根据美国会计准则，企业通常仅在损失\"可能发生且可合理估计\"时才将或有负债计入资产负债表，否则只需在财务报表附注中披露。这正是这批负债得以游离于账表之外的制度基础。\n投资者：金融工程在掩盖真实风险\n债券投资者的担忧集中在一点：这些表外或有负债，究竟何时会变成表内真实损失？\nDoubleLine投资组合经理Mariya Entina直言：\n\n这就像在钻系统的空子，试图从评级机构那里获得优待，以拿到尽可能高的评级……我们正在进入金融工程的时代。这是我的担忧之一：当你搞金融工程，你就是在掩盖财务现实。\n\nCreditSights分析师在报告中将英伟达的残值支持比作\"卖出一个看跌期权\"。\n\"这是顺周期的，会加剧繁荣-萧条的潜力，\"他们写道。\"在繁荣阶段，这个担保几乎没有成本；但在严重的急剧下行中，当客户违约、硬件市值下跌时，它就变得最为关键。\"\nTCW全球信贷联席主管Brian Gelfand表示：\"这不是普通的投资级信贷承销。\"\"它远比那复杂得多。鉴于表外性质，尾部风险是偏高的。\"\n也有人认为担忧过度\n并非所有人都持悲观立场。\nJanus Henderson Investors全球多板块及企业信贷主管John Lloyd认为，触发残值支持需要极端条件：\"你必须看到代币使用量的增长率断崖式下跌，而这根本不是我们正在看到的情况。\"\n他同时指出，这些公司\"并非试图隐藏或有负债，而是试图为其融资\"。\n支持者的逻辑是：芯片需求将在未来数年持续超过供给；债务结构设计为随时间全额摊销，残值支持的潜在成本也随之递减；技术风险最终落在有足够现金承受损失的大型科技公司身上。\n但批评者的反驳同样有力：正是在行业下行时，这些担保才会被触发，而那恰恰也是芯片制造商自身盈利承压的时刻。担保与风险在周期上高度同步，这才是问题所在。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QTOC":1.5,"VTHR":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"AGIX":1.5,"BNDW":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":597302946882416,"gmtCreate":1786852407079,"gmtModify":1786853301902,"author":{"id":"4234946816071132","authorId":"4234946816071132","name":"步步高升668","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4234946816071132","idStr":"4234946816071132"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"R/s wow I think the the e","listText":"R/s wow I think the the e","text":"R/s wow I think the the e","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/597302946882416","repostId":"2659179770","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659179770","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786842516,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2659179770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-08-16 09:08","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion in off-balance-sheet hidden liabilities raise concerns among bond investors.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659179770","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着英伟达宣布5000亿美元AI融资合作，债券市场对AI公司约700亿美元表外债务的担忧骤然升温。这一结构允许英伟达、博通等芯片巨头为客户债务兜底，却无需将负债计入自身账表。多家机构警告这是顺周期的金融工程，一旦行业下行将集中引爆风险。","content":"<p><html><body>The AI chip financing boom has spurred a new type of off-balance-sheet guarantee structure, which has reached $70 billion, and the bond market is struggling with how to price this hidden risk.</p><p>According to a Bloomberg report on August 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Prior to the announcement of the $500 billion financing partnership, bond investors had already begun to feel uneasy about the approximately $70 billion in \"ghost liabilities\" outside the balance sheets of major AI companies. These contingent liabilities, which are usually inconspicuous, may suddenly be realized at the worst possible moment.</p><p>The vehicle for these liabilities is a type called \"<strong>residual value guarantee</strong>\"(Residual Value Guarantee, RVG) structured arrangements, which may amount to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">Tens of billions</a>US dollars. The essence of this mechanism is that Nvidia uses its strong credit rating to endorse its clients' financing, helping them reduce borrowing costs.</p><p><h2>How does this structure work?</h2>A typical structure has three layers: a special purpose vehicle (SPV) borrows money to purchase chips, and the borrowing is supported by the cash flow of contracts signed by the company using the technology; If the company stops making payments, the assets will be leased again or sold to repay the remaining debts; If there is still a gap, the \"guarantor\" will make up the difference.</p><p><ol><li>A special purpose vehicle (SPV) borrows money to buy chips;</li><li>The loan was backed by the cash flow from a usage contract with an AI company;</li><li>If the AI company stops making payments, the chips will be sublet or sold to pay off debts;</li><li>If there is still a gap,<strong>The guarantor (chip manufacturer) shall make up the difference.</strong>。</li></ol>This is a \"surplus value guarantee\"—the chip seller acts as the last resort.</p><p>For Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For these chip giants, this structure is a \"bargain\": it helps customers reduce financing costs and expand sales without recording any debt on their books.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Goal</a>This is directly stated in its documentation: \"The probability of payment by the RVG guarantor is not high, therefore no liabilities have been recorded to date.\"</p><p>Although the probability is \"low,\" it is becoming increasingly difficult to convince the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>This logic can be extended to the field of chip financing. In a project codenamed \"Big Sky,\" Broadcom guaranteed a $35 billion debt transaction—Apollo Global Management and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>The group and other investors will fund the purchase of customized AI chips and then lease them to Anthropic for use. This arrangement resulted in senior debt receiving an investment-grade rating, thus lowering financing costs.</p><p>Unlike data center deals spanning decades, chip financing cycles are shorter, typically amortized in about five years to match the pace of rapid technology depreciation. This means that collateral exposure narrows rapidly over time, giving lenders a relatively clear exit horizon.</p><p><h2>Nvidia's entry into the market may lead to another leap in scale.</h2>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted on the X platform that the company may provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for related opportunities, \"evaluated on a case-by-case basis\".</p><p>\"Our role is to help unleash a large pool of independent capital while maintaining disciplined exposure,\" he wrote.</p><p>Nvidia stated that the collaboration aims to introduce external capital and alleviate the problem of \"circular financing\"—the closed-loop dilemma in which AI companies fund each other's products. The six U.S. investment institutions involved in this $500 billion financing include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。</p><p>Broadcom's AI XPV platform is an extension of the \"Big Sky\" deal, which, according to Bank of America strategists, could accumulate $370 billion in senior debt by mid-2029. This means that the potential scale of off-balance-sheet guarantees goes far beyond this.</p><p><h2>Rating agencies have issued warnings</h2>Rating agencies are not indifferent to this.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>A report stated, \"The main risk lies in the intensive occurrence of such transactions in the short term.\" \"We believe that a significant increase in Broadcom's contingent liabilities, even if the leverage ratio of its existing debt remains low, will limit Broadcom's financial flexibility and could put downward pressure on the company's creditworthiness.\"</p><p>Moody's also noted that Broadcom's guarantees for third-party leasing \"partially offset its strong business advantages,\" but further guarantees would have a negative impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating characterizes the residual value support provided by Broadcom as a \"contingent liability obligation\" and states that this portion will be included in the adjusted debt calculation.</p><p>Under U.S. accounting standards, entities typically only include contingent liabilities in their balance sheets when losses are \"probable and reasonably estimated\"; otherwise, they are only required to be disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. This is precisely the institutional basis that allows these liabilities to remain off the balance sheet.</p><p><h2>Investors: Financial engineering is masking real risks</h2>Bond investors' concerns focus on one point: when will these off-balance-sheet contingent liabilities become real on-balance-sheet losses?</p><p>Mariya Entina, portfolio manager at DoubleLine, said:</p><p><strong>It's like exploiting loopholes in the system, trying to get preferential treatment from rating agencies to get the highest possible rating... We are entering the era of financial engineering. This is one of my concerns: when you engage in financial engineering, you are obscuring financial reality.</strong></p><p>In their report, CreditSights analysts likened Nvidia's residual value support to \"selling a put option.\"</p><p>\"This is pro-cyclical and exacerbates boom-bust potential,\" they wrote. \"In a boom phase, this guarantee has almost no cost; but in a severe, sharp downturn, it becomes most critical when customers default and the hardware market value falls.\"</p><p>\"This is not your average investment-grade credit underwriting,\" said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW. \"It's much more complex than that. Given its off-balance-sheet nature, the tail risk is high.\"</p><p><h2>Some people believe the worry is excessive.</h2>Not everyone is pessimistic.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>John Lloyd, global head of multi-segment and corporate credit at Investors, believes that triggering residual value support requires extreme conditions: \"You have to see the growth rate of token usage plummet, which is not what we are seeing at all.\"</p><p>He also pointed out that these companies \"are not trying to hide contingent liabilities, but to finance them.\"</p><p>The supporters' logic is that chip demand will continue to exceed supply in the coming years; The debt structure is designed to be fully amortized over time, reducing the potential costs of residual value support. Technology risks ultimately fall on large technology companies that have enough cash to bear the losses.</p><p>But the critics' counterargument is equally forceful: these guarantees are triggered precisely when the industry is in a downturn, and that is precisely when chipmakers' own profits are under pressure. The problem lies in the fact that guarantees and risks are highly synchronized in terms of cycles.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion in off-balance-sheet hidden liabilities raise concerns among bond investors.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion in off-balance-sheet hidden liabilities raise concerns among bond investors.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-08-16 09:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>The AI chip financing boom has spurred a new type of off-balance-sheet guarantee structure, which has reached $70 billion, and the bond market is struggling with how to price this hidden risk.</p><p>According to a Bloomberg report on August 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Prior to the announcement of the $500 billion financing partnership, bond investors had already begun to feel uneasy about the approximately $70 billion in \"ghost liabilities\" outside the balance sheets of major AI companies. These contingent liabilities, which are usually inconspicuous, may suddenly be realized at the worst possible moment.</p><p>The vehicle for these liabilities is a type called \"<strong>residual value guarantee</strong>\"(Residual Value Guarantee, RVG) structured arrangements, which may amount to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">Tens of billions</a>US dollars. The essence of this mechanism is that Nvidia uses its strong credit rating to endorse its clients' financing, helping them reduce borrowing costs.</p><p><h2>How does this structure work?</h2>A typical structure has three layers: a special purpose vehicle (SPV) borrows money to purchase chips, and the borrowing is supported by the cash flow of contracts signed by the company using the technology; If the company stops making payments, the assets will be leased again or sold to repay the remaining debts; If there is still a gap, the \"guarantor\" will make up the difference.</p><p><ol><li>A special purpose vehicle (SPV) borrows money to buy chips;</li><li>The loan was backed by the cash flow from a usage contract with an AI company;</li><li>If the AI company stops making payments, the chips will be sublet or sold to pay off debts;</li><li>If there is still a gap,<strong>The guarantor (chip manufacturer) shall make up the difference.</strong>。</li></ol>This is a \"surplus value guarantee\"—the chip seller acts as the last resort.</p><p>For Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For these chip giants, this structure is a \"bargain\": it helps customers reduce financing costs and expand sales without recording any debt on their books.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Goal</a>This is directly stated in its documentation: \"The probability of payment by the RVG guarantor is not high, therefore no liabilities have been recorded to date.\"</p><p>Although the probability is \"low,\" it is becoming increasingly difficult to convince the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>This logic can be extended to the field of chip financing. In a project codenamed \"Big Sky,\" Broadcom guaranteed a $35 billion debt transaction—Apollo Global Management and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>The group and other investors will fund the purchase of customized AI chips and then lease them to Anthropic for use. This arrangement resulted in senior debt receiving an investment-grade rating, thus lowering financing costs.</p><p>Unlike data center deals spanning decades, chip financing cycles are shorter, typically amortized in about five years to match the pace of rapid technology depreciation. This means that collateral exposure narrows rapidly over time, giving lenders a relatively clear exit horizon.</p><p><h2>Nvidia's entry into the market may lead to another leap in scale.</h2>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted on the X platform that the company may provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for related opportunities, \"evaluated on a case-by-case basis\".</p><p>\"Our role is to help unleash a large pool of independent capital while maintaining disciplined exposure,\" he wrote.</p><p>Nvidia stated that the collaboration aims to introduce external capital and alleviate the problem of \"circular financing\"—the closed-loop dilemma in which AI companies fund each other's products. The six U.S. investment institutions involved in this $500 billion financing include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。</p><p>Broadcom's AI XPV platform is an extension of the \"Big Sky\" deal, which, according to Bank of America strategists, could accumulate $370 billion in senior debt by mid-2029. This means that the potential scale of off-balance-sheet guarantees goes far beyond this.</p><p><h2>Rating agencies have issued warnings</h2>Rating agencies are not indifferent to this.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>A report stated, \"The main risk lies in the intensive occurrence of such transactions in the short term.\" \"We believe that a significant increase in Broadcom's contingent liabilities, even if the leverage ratio of its existing debt remains low, will limit Broadcom's financial flexibility and could put downward pressure on the company's creditworthiness.\"</p><p>Moody's also noted that Broadcom's guarantees for third-party leasing \"partially offset its strong business advantages,\" but further guarantees would have a negative impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating characterizes the residual value support provided by Broadcom as a \"contingent liability obligation\" and states that this portion will be included in the adjusted debt calculation.</p><p>Under U.S. accounting standards, entities typically only include contingent liabilities in their balance sheets when losses are \"probable and reasonably estimated\"; otherwise, they are only required to be disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. This is precisely the institutional basis that allows these liabilities to remain off the balance sheet.</p><p><h2>Investors: Financial engineering is masking real risks</h2>Bond investors' concerns focus on one point: when will these off-balance-sheet contingent liabilities become real on-balance-sheet losses?</p><p>Mariya Entina, portfolio manager at DoubleLine, said:</p><p><strong>It's like exploiting loopholes in the system, trying to get preferential treatment from rating agencies to get the highest possible rating... We are entering the era of financial engineering. This is one of my concerns: when you engage in financial engineering, you are obscuring financial reality.</strong></p><p>In their report, CreditSights analysts likened Nvidia's residual value support to \"selling a put option.\"</p><p>\"This is pro-cyclical and exacerbates boom-bust potential,\" they wrote. \"In a boom phase, this guarantee has almost no cost; but in a severe, sharp downturn, it becomes most critical when customers default and the hardware market value falls.\"</p><p>\"This is not your average investment-grade credit underwriting,\" said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW. \"It's much more complex than that. Given its off-balance-sheet nature, the tail risk is high.\"</p><p><h2>Some people believe the worry is excessive.</h2>Not everyone is pessimistic.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>John Lloyd, global head of multi-segment and corporate credit at Investors, believes that triggering residual value support requires extreme conditions: \"You have to see the growth rate of token usage plummet, which is not what we are seeing at all.\"</p><p>He also pointed out that these companies \"are not trying to hide contingent liabilities, but to finance them.\"</p><p>The supporters' logic is that chip demand will continue to exceed supply in the coming years; The debt structure is designed to be fully amortized over time, reducing the potential costs of residual value support. Technology risks ultimately fall on large technology companies that have enough cash to bear the losses.</p><p>But the critics' counterargument is equally forceful: these guarantees are triggered precisely when the industry is in a downturn, and that is precisely when chipmakers' own profits are under pressure. The problem lies in the fact that guarantees and risks are highly synchronized in terms of cycles.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","BNDW":"Vanguard Total World Bond ETF","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779518","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659179770","content_text":"AI芯片融资热潮催生了一种新型表外担保结构，规模已达700亿美元，债券市场正在为如何给这笔隐性风险定价而苦恼。\n据彭博8月15日报道，就在英伟达宣布5000亿美元融资合作之前，债券投资者已开始对主要AI公司资产负债表之外约700亿美元的\"幽灵负债\"感到不安。这些或有负债平时不显山露水，却可能在最糟糕的时刻突然兑现。\n这些负债的载体，是一种名为\"剩余价值担保\"（Residual Value Guarantee，RVG）的结构性安排，金额可能高达数百亿美元。这一机制的本质是：英伟达用自身强大的信用评级为客户的融资背书，帮助客户压低借贷成本。\n这套结构如何运作\n典型结构分三层：一个特殊目的载体（SPV）借钱购买芯片，借款由使用该技术的公司所签合同现金流作为支撑；若该公司停止付款，资产将被再次租赁或出售以偿还剩余债务；若仍有缺口，则由\"担保方\"补足差额。\n\n一个特殊目的载体（SPV）借钱买芯片；\n借款由某AI公司的使用合同现金流作为支撑；\n若该AI公司停止付款，芯片被转租或出售偿债；\n若仍有缺口，由担保方（芯片厂商）补足差额。\n\n这就是\"剩余价值担保\"——芯片卖家充当了最后兜底人。\n对英伟达、博通这类芯片巨头而言，这套结构是一笔\"划算的买卖\"：帮客户降低融资成本、扩大销售，自身不在账面上记录任何债务。Meta在其文件中对此直接表述：\"RVG担保方付款概率不高，因此迄今未记录任何负债。\"\n虽然\"概率不高\"，但越来越难以让市场信服。\n博通则将这一逻辑延伸至芯片融资领域。在代号\"Big Sky\"的项目中，博通为一笔350亿美元的债务交易提供担保——Apollo全球管理和黑石集团等投资者出资购买定制AI芯片，再租赁给Anthropic使用。这一安排使高级债务获得了投资级评级，融资成本随之下降。\n与跨越数十年的数据中心交易不同，芯片融资周期更短，通常约五年摊销完毕，以匹配技术快速折旧的节奏。这意味着担保敞口随时间快速收窄，给了贷款方一个相对清晰的退出视野。\n英伟达入场，规模或再跃升\n英伟达CEO Jensen Huang在X平台发文称，公司可能为相关机会提供最高25%的残值支持机制，\"逐案评估\"。\n\"我们的角色是帮助释放一大批独立资本，同时保持有纪律的风险敞口，\"他写道。\n英伟达表示，此次合作旨在引入外部资本，缓解\"循环融资\"问题——即AI公司相互出资购买彼此产品的闭环困境。参与这笔5000亿美元融资的六家美国投资机构包括贝莱德和高盛。\n博通的AI XPV平台是\"Big Sky\"交易的延伸，据美国银行策略师估算，该平台到2029年中期可能累积3700亿美元的高级债务。这意味着表外担保的潜在规模远不止于此。\n评级机构已发出警告\n评级机构对此并非无动于衷。\n穆迪在一份报告中写道：\"主要风险在于此类交易在短期内密集发生。\"\"我们认为，博通或有义务的大幅增加，即便其现有债务的杠杆率保持较低水平，也将限制博通的财务灵活性，并可能对公司信用状况形成压制。\"\n穆迪同时指出，博通对第三方租赁的担保\"部分抵消了强劲的业务优势\"，但更多担保将带来负面影响。\n标普全球评级则将博通提供的残值支持定性为\"或有债务类义务\"，并表示将把这部分纳入调整后的债务计算。\n根据美国会计准则，企业通常仅在损失\"可能发生且可合理估计\"时才将或有负债计入资产负债表，否则只需在财务报表附注中披露。这正是这批负债得以游离于账表之外的制度基础。\n投资者：金融工程在掩盖真实风险\n债券投资者的担忧集中在一点：这些表外或有负债，究竟何时会变成表内真实损失？\nDoubleLine投资组合经理Mariya Entina直言：\n\n这就像在钻系统的空子，试图从评级机构那里获得优待，以拿到尽可能高的评级……我们正在进入金融工程的时代。这是我的担忧之一：当你搞金融工程，你就是在掩盖财务现实。\n\nCreditSights分析师在报告中将英伟达的残值支持比作\"卖出一个看跌期权\"。\n\"这是顺周期的，会加剧繁荣-萧条的潜力，\"他们写道。\"在繁荣阶段，这个担保几乎没有成本；但在严重的急剧下行中，当客户违约、硬件市值下跌时，它就变得最为关键。\"\nTCW全球信贷联席主管Brian Gelfand表示：\"这不是普通的投资级信贷承销。\"\"它远比那复杂得多。鉴于表外性质，尾部风险是偏高的。\"\n也有人认为担忧过度\n并非所有人都持悲观立场。\nJanus Henderson Investors全球多板块及企业信贷主管John Lloyd认为，触发残值支持需要极端条件：\"你必须看到代币使用量的增长率断崖式下跌，而这根本不是我们正在看到的情况。\"\n他同时指出，这些公司\"并非试图隐藏或有负债，而是试图为其融资\"。\n支持者的逻辑是：芯片需求将在未来数年持续超过供给；债务结构设计为随时间全额摊销，残值支持的潜在成本也随之递减；技术风险最终落在有足够现金承受损失的大型科技公司身上。\n但批评者的反驳同样有力：正是在行业下行时，这些担保才会被触发，而那恰恰也是芯片制造商自身盈利承压的时刻。担保与风险在周期上高度同步，这才是问题所在。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QTOC":1.5,"VTHR":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"AGIX":1.5,"BNDW":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
