The core idea behind index-inclusion arbitrage is to exploit the mechanical buying created by index funds and ETFs around an index-rebalance effective date: build the position before passive funds must trade, then exit when those passive buyers are forced to execute. For a low-float, high-profile stock such as SPCX that is being fast-tracked into major indexes, this logic can indeed create short-term alpha. But this is not a simple trade where "passive funds must buy at the close, so buying early is guaranteed to work." SPCX is special because the potential buy demand is enormous and highly predictable. Underwriters, hedge funds, high-frequency traders, and passive funds all know the same thing. What determines the outcome is not only how much passive capital needs to buy, but whether that