KevinKelly
KevinKelly
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$Micron Technology(MU)$ I really hate to say it, but “this time is different” and I expect MU to have a super cycle this time around. Why? As you know, I always look at memories as a commodity and even HBM is no different. As a commodity, the key driver for price, and hence gross margin and operating margin is supply/demand balance. Because of the 3-1 trade in HBM vs DDR, the industry abruptly transitioned from over supply to severe under supply in one year while HBM demand continues to ramp rapidly and DDR demand is recovering. You add to this supply demand imbalance by WFE capex discipline as the suppliers are forced to invest in packaging driven again by HBM requirements. So we are in the beginning of a perfect storm of severe supply demand imbal
avatarKevinKelly
2023-03-22

Charles Schwab: A Case Of Mistaken Panic

SummaryWe believe the recent banking crisis largely had nothing to do with SCHW, given its position as a brokerage company with value-added banking services.Even in the highly unlikely 'bank run' scenario, the company had excellent liquidity of $93.98B in FY2022, now significantly aided by another $300B from the Fed.Combined with its growing client assets, expanding profitability, and excellent forward guidance, the SCHW stock is likely to outperform ahead.wildpixel/iStock via Getty ImagesBuy The Panic-Driven DiscountWe believe The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW$Charles Schwab(SCHW)$ ) has been overly sold at these levels, negatively impacted by the banking crisis over the past two weeks. Particularly, we think the pessimism is unwarranted
Charles Schwab: A Case Of Mistaken Panic
avatarKevinKelly
2023-12-12
$Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$ Bought TEMU around $69 sold it in the mid $90s. I use TEMU a lot and the prices are going UP. There's a lot of items now that are the same price or higher than Amazon. If the stock is the same price as Amazon, maybe yall should be looking Amazon. Just saying be careful people. Looks like a paper tiger to me...
avatarKevinKelly
2022-12-31

iQIYI: Still Bullish On The Stock, But Near-Term Volatility Exists

OverviewThis post serves as an update to mycoveragein September.I still think iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ:IQ$iQiyi Inc.(IQ)$ ) is underappreciated. I anticipate increased transparency on IQ's delivery of positive OPM as management shifts its focus to profitabilityand efficiency by optimizing content costs and OPEX and adjusting its content investment-centric revenue growth strategies. However, I continue to be wary of IQ's subscription revenue growth, as the positive impact of an improving average revenue per member in a relatively stable pricing environment is offset by slow subscription growth. The continued time-spent share loss to SFV (short-form videos) platforms, tightened regulations, and COVID's resurgence all have the potential to further delay the advertising industry's ability to recove
iQIYI: Still Bullish On The Stock, But Near-Term Volatility Exists
avatarKevinKelly
2022-04-14

Sembcorp Marine - A Decent-Sized Order Win To Kick Off The Turnaround Story

Sembcorp Marine announced that it had won a contract for a WTIV scheduled for delivery in early 2025. We estimate that this contract win is worth approximately S$600m and could be as large as S$800m depending on the specifications. Note that this is Sembcorp Marine (SGX:S51)’s first contract win since its announcement of modification work for a Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel in Brazil in Jun 21. And So It Begins – Sembcorp Marine’s First Contract In A While Sembcorp Marine announced yesterday that it had secured a contract for the construction of a Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (WTIV) based on its in-house design in collaboration with its as-yet-unnamed customer. Delivery of the vessel will be in 2025 with milestone payments. Our channel checks with the industry indic
Sembcorp Marine - A Decent-Sized Order Win To Kick Off The Turnaround Story
avatarKevinKelly
2023-03-17

Reddit’s 10 Meme Stocks Ranked From Best to Worst According to Hedge Funds

In this article, we discuss Reddit’s 10 meme stocks ranked from best to worst according to hedge funds. If you want to see more stocks in this selection, check out Reddit’s 5 Meme Stocks Ranked From Best to Worst According to Hedge Funds.A meme stock is a term used to describe company stocks that have gained widespread popularity through social media platforms due to an increase in social sentiment. This social sentiment is usually due to the increased discussion and analysis around a particular stock by online communities who devote significant resources and research to the stock. Meme stocks are often heavily discussed on platforms such as Reddit, Twitter, and Facebook.Retail investors are pouring unprecedented amounts of money into US stocks, which could potentially give them
Reddit’s 10 Meme Stocks Ranked From Best to Worst According to Hedge Funds
avatarKevinKelly
2023-02-24

Sea Limited: Primed For A Comeback

Investment ThesisSea Limited (NYSE:SE$Sea Ltd(SE)$ ) is a Southeast Asia consumer business. Its story is far from straightforward. There are segments, such as Sea's Digital Entertainment which accounts for below 30% of total revenues that are slowing down. Meanwhile, both its E-commerce and itsDigital Financial Services are rapidly growing.Then, to further confound matters Sea's balance sheet is not as strong as one would desire.All that being said, I declare that this insight is well-known and amply factored into its valuation already. And that's why I'm taking a bullish view on this business.Animal Spirits Are BackTech stocks imploded in 2021. 2021?Yes, even though the large caps managed to survive largely unscathed until the middle of 2022, broad
Sea Limited: Primed For A Comeback
avatarKevinKelly
2023-05-15

Forget Alibaba And Take A Look At Kaspi Instead

SummaryIn this article, I'm trying to prove that Kaspi stock has much more growth potential compared to Alibaba. A comparison I assume you've never seen before.What Alibaba failed to do - create a full ecosystem with financial solutions inside - Kaspi succeeded in doing. Kaspi's ecosystem yields better growth and margins.Kaspi occupies >41% of its market, and that share, if you look at the numbers, is only continuing to grow (unlike Alibaba's share in China).Alibaba's projected EPS growth is a CAGR of ~8.1% from 2023 to 2025. Kaspi's EPS grew 76.7% YoY in U.S. dollars. Both stocks have nearly the same P/Es.I don't recommend trying to catch another falling knife in BABA. Better buy what grows higher, costs about the same in terms of valuation, and has fewer geopolitical risks.Jack M
Forget Alibaba And Take A Look At Kaspi Instead
avatarKevinKelly
2023-03-21

Marathon Digital Holdings Revenues and Earnings Miss Expectations

Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ ) Full Year 2022 ResultsKey Financial ResultsRevenue: US$117.8m (down 26% from FY 2021).Net loss: US$686.7m (loss widened by US$649.6m from FY 2021).US$6.05 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.37 loss in FY 2021).earnings-and-revenue-growth All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) periodRevenue missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 126%.Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 47% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Software industry in the US.
Marathon Digital Holdings Revenues and Earnings Miss Expectations
avatarKevinKelly
2023-03-22

Investors Alert: Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB)

Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ )disclosed a change of 4.48% and its listed share value at $2.91 in the recent trade transaction. This company belong to Singapore Country and part of Technology sector. GRAB exchanged 3882081 shares on hands in most recent trading session and observed an average volume with 16536.46K shares. The stock acknowledged active focus on shares in the current trading session. It has a market capitalization of $10638.69M. Using market capitalization to display company size because this is basic factor of different characteristics to develop the investors’ interests including risk.TECHNICAL INTERPRETATION:A Simple moving average is one of the most flexible as well as most-commonly used technical analysis ind
Investors Alert: Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB)
avatarKevinKelly
2022-04-07

PDD: There is a brighter future ahead

Strategic contraction After Pinduoduo (PDD) releasing its Q4 and 2021 annual results, its stock price sinked. The reason is that PDD only achieved a 3% year-on-year growth, but market did not see the company's strategic contraction for self-operated business. Platform revenue (online marketing services and other transaction services) reached 27.15 billion, accounting for more than 99% of the total revenue, up 28% YoY. The growth rate of 28% is not very good, but it is still considerable, after all, the macroeconomic is on a downward spiral, the market must face the fact that the phase of high growth of PDD has ended. The number of user growth is close to the limit By the end of 2021, PDD's A
PDD: There is a brighter future ahead
avatarKevinKelly
2022-12-17

Roblox: Heading In The Wrong Direction Or Normalization?

Investment ThesisWith the pandemic boom effect coming off and growing at a higher base, Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) is experiencing a normalization process while staying focused on research and development to reach its potential. We are constructive onthe company's business but cautious of the high valuation. We provide a framework to help investors to assess this new normal and provide a fair price for the stock.Company OverviewRoblox, founded in 2012, is a company that builds an immersive 3D multiplayer online gaming platform that enables developers to use a desktop design tool called Roblox Studio to create and share the synchronous gaming experience with others online. The company has millions of developers, the majority of whom are under the age of 18, paying monthly visits to crea
Roblox: Heading In The Wrong Direction Or Normalization?
avatarKevinKelly
2023-02-08

Apple Q1 Report: How Would Graham Read It?

Q1 recap and thesisApple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL$Apple(AAPL)$ ) just released itsfiscal Q1 2023earnings report (“ER”) earlier this month. By this time, investors must already have fully digested all the details. Thus, here I will just point out afew things that are most relevant to the core thesis of this article. Revenue dialed in at $117.2 billion, a 5% decrease YoY. And earnings per diluted share dialed in at $1.88. Both the top and bottom lines missed consensus estimates narrowly. It is the first time that Apple has missed the Zacks consensus estimates since 2016. And the revenue decline is also the biggest annual quarterly revenue drop since 2016. As such, there is no wonder thatsome analystshave used words like “dismal” to describe its Q1 ER.Furth
Apple Q1 Report: How Would Graham Read It?
avatarKevinKelly
2022-11-16

Palantir: Geopolitical Trade Of The Decade

For nearly 30 years, we’ve experienced the rise of living standards across the globe, as cross-border trade and trading agreements were shown to be more effective than war in achieving national interests at that time. However, that era is coming to an end. The current relatively high prices for commodities along with the ongoing supply disruptions show the need for the development of more protectionist trade policies that encourage the shortening of supply chains in order to decrease the exposure to non-allied third parties, which don’t share the same values, view the world differently, and could pose a major threat in the foreseeable future. As we enter this new reality, which is in the midst of a bifurcation of the global system, we as investors should start preparing our portfolios
Palantir: Geopolitical Trade Of The Decade
avatarKevinKelly
2022-07-07

Wilmar International - India To Restrict Sugar Exports; Still BUY

India’s plan to restrict its sugar exports should not have a significant impact on Wilmar (SGX:F34) as it mostly sells its sugar domestically. However, if this is extended into the next marketing year which starts in October, there could be a slight negative impact.Maintain BUY call on Wilmar and S$5.10 target price, 24% upside with ~3% FY22F yield.India Plans To Restrict Sugar Exports For The First Time In Six YearsIndia plans to restrict sugar exports for the first time in six years to prevent a surge in domestic prices, potentially capping this season's exports at 10m tonnes, according to media reports.India is the world's biggest sugar producer and the second biggest exporter behind Brazil. Heat waves have withered fields in India. It is making exceptions on export restrictions only fo
Wilmar International - India To Restrict Sugar Exports; Still BUY
avatarKevinKelly
2022-07-07

Microsoft: A Safe Total Return Investment

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) needs no general introduction. The company has grown into a powerhouse over the years and is now one of the most valuable companies in the world with a market capof $1.92 trillion.Over the past decade, shares of MSFT have rallied 760%, but have fallen out of favor in 2022 as the technology trade has lost its steam from the COVID-19 pandemic. On the year, shares of MSFT are down 22% and they are down 26% from all-time highs they reached in December 2021.The shift to more of a work from home environment becoming the norm for many corporations along with the push for cloud has increased not only the need but the value of Microsoft to new highs.However, with the pandemic now firmly in the rearview mirror as more and more Americans shift to it being part of l
Microsoft: A Safe Total Return Investment
avatarKevinKelly
2022-08-18

Disney: Fundamental Problems Not Solved

Following a better-than-expected quarter,The Walt Disney Company(NYSE:DIS) still faces the fundamental issues facing the streaming business. In fact, Dan Loeb of the Third Point hedge fund wants the company to exit parts of the streaming business. Myinvestment thesis remains Neutral on the business, especially after the rally along with animal spirits in the stock market.Painful ShiftWhile the market once rewarded the stock with a nearly $200 stock price, people have finally caught up to the direct-to-consumer plan as not necessarily beneficial to Disney. Previously, the media giant collected monthly fees from cable services and sold millions of tickets for movies without all of the costs of a DTC service.The DTC video streaming services have become a disaster because consumers spend
Disney: Fundamental Problems Not Solved
avatarKevinKelly
2023-03-14

ZIM Integrated Shipping: Last Major Payday Ahead

Last year, Israel-based liner company ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE:ZIM$ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.(ZIM)$ ), or "ZIM," attracted strong retail investor interest. This was due to its eye-catchingly high pay-outs and the fact that the company remains the only large U.S. exchange-listed container liner:AlphalinerWhile ZIM barely makes the Top 10 of the world's largest liner companies, the company has pocketed its fair share of the recent container shipping bonanza.Sincelistingon the Big Board in early 2021, ZIM has declared a whopping $38.40 per share in dividends.Like all liner companies, ZIM has been enjoying record-high earnings and cash flows for most of the past two years, but with container rates now back at pre-pandemic level
ZIM Integrated Shipping: Last Major Payday Ahead
avatarKevinKelly
2023-01-05

AMC: Further Challenged By Rising Interest Costs And The Declining Price Of APEs

While I don't believe that AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ ) is inimminent danger of restructuring, it does appear to be in somewhat worse shape thanI previously thought.I mentioned before that I believed that AMC washeaded for either restructuring or massive dilution of its stock. AMC is taking the path of massive dilution, but due to the fall in the price of AMC Preferred Equity Units (APE), it may not be able to raise enough money through issuing shares/units to avoid an eventual restructuring in the end.I've modeled a scenario below where AMC's revenues increase significantly (approximately 25%) in 2023 compared to 2022. This is towards the high end of AMC's estimates for growth in 2023 and is significantly higher than theforecast from Gower Street Analytics.This sc
AMC: Further Challenged By Rising Interest Costs And The Declining Price Of APEs
avatarKevinKelly
2023-03-06

Is Shopify Stock A Buy On The Dip?

Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP$Shopify(SHOP)$ ) has taken investors on a wild ride over the last five years. Depending on the price an investor paid for the company, one could be sitting on massive gains or eye-popping losses. One thing is for sure; Shopify has leveledthe e-commerce playing field for small and medium enterprises around the world. When Iwroteabout Shopify last November, I discussed how the company was nearing an inflection point aided by successful business partnerships and new investments in products and technology. At the same time, I invited investors to be cautious because of the unfavorable margin profile. The objective of this analysis is to discuss certain aspects of Shopify’s business to estimate the company’s intrinsic value.Is S
Is Shopify Stock A Buy On The Dip?

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