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Enjoys predicting US market moves based on global news.
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2023-08-28

XPEV stock analysis

The Xpeng $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ stock price gained 8.21% on Friday, 25th Aug 2023, rising from $16.20 to $17.53. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 7.20% from a day low at $16.40 to a day high of $17.58. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 7.68% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 8 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 19 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $338.38 million.The stock lies in the lower part of a ve
XPEV stock analysis
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2023-08-23

DICK'S Sporting Goods Q2 Earnings: Push Through The Pain

SummaryDICK'S Sporting Goods stock plummeted more than 24% after missing revenue and earnings guidance for Q2 and revising earnings guidance down for the fiscal year.Despite the drop, the company's revenue increased by 3.6% YoY and comparable store sales improved by 1.8%.DKS stock is trading at an attractive valuation, with a forward P/E multiple of 9.8, and other pricing metrics looking attractive.DICK'S also has attractive long-term growth prospects, and it is actively buying back stock.PeopleImages/iStock via Getty ImagesDICK'S Sporting Goods Q2 earnings resultsAug. 22 proved to be a very painful day for shareholders of sporting goods retailer DICK'S Sporting Goods $Dick's Sporting Goods(DKS)$. After announcing financial resu
DICK'S Sporting Goods Q2 Earnings: Push Through The Pain
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2023-08-21

Nvidia: Don't Be The Greatest Fool

SummaryMy last two bearish articles about Nvidia Corporation stock did not age well because I underestimated the strength of the momentum caused by the AI frenzy.Nvidia stock is overvalued even with wildly optimistic assumptions, and the current market cap is higher than the cumulative revenue over the next decade.The significant risk for a bearish thesis is that nobody knows how long the AI mania may last before the bubble bursts.BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment thesisThis is my third analysis of Nvidia Corporation $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$; the previous two did not work well, to be honest. My last article about the stock went live just before the latest earnings call. I underestimated the artificial intelligence ("A
Nvidia: Don't Be The Greatest Fool
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2023-08-18

PayPal - Downgrading To Hold: Current Macro Dynamics Won't Favor The Stock

SummaryWe’re downgrading PayPal Holdings, Inc. to a hold as we think current macro dynamics won’t work in the stock’s favor.We expect PayPal will struggle to increase active accounts and expand transaction margins under macro uncertainty and see Y/Y revenue growth slowing as a result.While we’re constructive on PayPal’s cost-cutting initiatives and position in the e-commerce industry, we don’t share management’s expectation of discretionary spending improving materially in 2H23.We now think the macro weakness is priced into the stock for the most part.Still, we believe there are better names to invest in for the near term as we don’t see the stock working through 2H23.TadejZupancicWe're downgrading PayPal Holdings, Inc. $PayPal(PYPL)$ to a ho
PayPal - Downgrading To Hold: Current Macro Dynamics Won't Favor The Stock
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2023-08-11

Fortinet: Growth Slowdown Leads To Valuation Reset

SummaryFortinet missed revenue consensus in 2Q and provided weak revenue guidance in FY2023, leading to a 25% selloff and concerns about growth outlook.The company's product revenue saw a substantial decline, indicating a normalization from the pandemic-driven surge.The management also attributed this growth slowdown to shortened billings duration and the delay of large deals to the next quarter.The stock's valuation remains relatively high compared to peers and market indexes, but the adherence to the software's 40-Rule justifies it to some extent.da-kukInvestment ThesisFortinet $Fortinet(FTNT)$ not only missed the 2Q FY2023 revenue consensus but also provided a weak FY2023 revenue guidance. This resulted in a 25% selloff following the earnings a
Fortinet: Growth Slowdown Leads To Valuation Reset
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2023-08-10

Upstart Q2 Earnings: Unraveling The Bear Thesis And The Catch-22

SummaryUpstart's recent earnings report is a mixed bag, with bullish aspects but also notable concerns.Investors are eager to take profits after the stock's massive run-up in recent months.The bear thesis, rooted in skepticism about Upstart's intermediary role and balance sheet, contrasts with the company's claims as a loan originator.Michael Blann/DigitalVision via Getty ImagesInvestment ThesisUpstart $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ delivered a very mixed set of results. There was more than enough for the bulls to be content with, but there was also one very strong blemish in the earnings report.Given that the stock had already run up massively in the past several months, there were a lot of investors eager to take profits on the back of this earn
Upstart Q2 Earnings: Unraveling The Bear Thesis And The Catch-22
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2023-08-09

TSM stock analysis

The Taiwan Semiconductor $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ stock price fell by -1.93% on Tuesday, 8th Aug 2023 from $96.35 to $94.49. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.37% from a day low at $93.67 to a day high of $94.95. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -5.81% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -86 thousand shares and in total, 6 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $576.46 million.The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend
TSM stock analysis
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2023-08-07

Taiwan Semiconductor: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain (Rating Upgrade)

SummaryTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's weak guidance reflects the ongoing downturn in the semiconductor industry, but the stock is still trading at a decent price.Despite the negative sentiment in the smartphone market, the company expects a strong ramp-up in demand in the second half of the year.The company's focus on AI and its investment in new technologies like N2 and the Arizona plant position it well for long-term growth.Annabelle ChihInvestment ThesisWith what I think was an unsurprising Q2 earnings report, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ tumbled on weak guidance suggesting the downturn is still affecting its operations, which we knew already&nbs
Taiwan Semiconductor: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain (Rating Upgrade)
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2023-08-07

Google's Code Red Works: Rally Still Has Legs

SummaryGOOG continues to demonstrate its search engine moat and Cloud high growth cadence, while similarly taking advantage of the returning ad-spending.Thanks to the ongoing SAG-AFTRA/ WGA strikes, YouTube has also recorded accelerating TV advertising revenues, significantly aided by the sustained cord cutting and new unskippable 30-second ads.Taking a leaf out of Elon Musk's playbook has paid of extremely well, with GOOG's top-line expansion expected to accelerate ahead of expense growth through 2024.This is on top of the founders' renewed enthusiasm over the GenerativeAI, thanks to the perceived threat from ChatGPT and the subsequent "Code Red" situation.Despite the brilliant recovery thus far, we believe GOOG's rally still have legs, with a long-term price target of $192.84.mgstud
Google's Code Red Works: Rally Still Has Legs
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2023-08-04
Netflix $Netflix(NFLX)$ is not stupid. They carefully did the calculations and came to the conclusion that removing that tier would actually increase revenue/arpu.Regarding the strike, here's a list of shows: squid game squid game, money heist, all of us are dead, attorney Woo, lupin.The common thread is that all of those were fabulously successful shows for Netflix globally. All of them were made outside of Hollywood system. The strike will suck, but no one's got better infrastructure than Netflix to handle it. They are the kings of telling global stories.
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2023-07-27

Teladoc: A Better Future

SummaryTeladoc's Q2 2023 revenue surged 10% to $652.4 million, beating market estimates.The company's partnership with Microsoft and integration of AI services promise improved efficiency in telehealth, automating clinical documentation and providing a competitive edge.TDOC reported outstanding gross profit margins in Q2 2023, reaching nearly 71%, paving the way to profitability.Teladoc triumphs in a securities class action lawsuit over its Livongo acquisition, showcasing transparency with investors.10'000 HoursInvestment ThesisTeladoc Health, Inc. $Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ is oriented towards value creation by bringing innovation to telehealth with advanced AI technology and transparent business practices. Through a strategic partnership with M
Teladoc: A Better Future
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2023-07-25
Swing trade with a bullish divergence confirmation on the weekly chart. Since the EV sector is on the bullish run with being the top volume gainers to support. We might see a climax run on this sector. $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$
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2023-07-24

Digital World: Diminished Opportunity

SummaryDigital World Acquisition SPAC agrees to a settlement with the SEC costing a civil fine of $18 million.The deal with Trump Media and Truth Social appears close to actually closing after a painful period in purgatory.DWAC stock at an ~$3.8 billion valuation is vastly overvalued for the diminished opportunity in the social media space.Joe Raedle/Getty Images NewsWhile Digital World Acquisition Corp. $Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$ appears poised to settle with the SEC in a plan to allow the SPAC deal to finally close, Truth Social is still struggling to make any real business progress. The social media platform owned by former President Donald Trump has seen a lot of its purpose as an independent platform disappear. My i
Digital World: Diminished Opportunity
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2023-07-21

Intel: Execution On Track, And The Risk-Reward Looks Favorable

SummaryIntel's OPEX structure is in a better place, and once market conditions pick up in H2 or FY24, lower factory underloading charges should start reflecting well at the gross profit level.The company's shift to an internal foundry model is expected to bring greater cost accountability and reduce expedited requests, contributing to further cost savings of $0.5bn-$1bn over time.Intel looks poised to deliver compelling operating leverage with EBITDA growth expected to exceed revenue growth by 3-4.5x over the next 2 years.INTC looks like an ideal candidate to benefit from rotation momentum within the large-cap tech universe, and we also like the risk-reward on the weekly chart.maybefalseIntroductionLast year, when we wrote about Intel $Intel(INTC)$
Intel: Execution On Track, And The Risk-Reward Looks Favorable
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2023-07-20

Marathon Digital Symmetrical Breakout?

Mara $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ reached a new high and fell as expected. It started trading into a wide falling wedge out of a bullish uptrend. I would think other than Bullish if it was knifing down.Found consolidation level at 17-17.60 area after double bottom bounce at 16.50ish and looking for a possible break to the upside out of a bullish symmetrical triangle.With bit coin holding 30,000 level.We could see it retest and/or reclaim $20 soon.Trade Responsible,#TradeTheWave 🏄🏽‍♂️🌊
Marathon Digital Symmetrical Breakout?
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2023-07-18

Rivian Automotive: Sell The Euphoria

SummaryI am downgrading Rivian following its release of Q2 production and delivery figures as the company's share price has soared 53% since the end of June.The surge in Rivian's share price is likely due to the company's Q2 production figures, which soared 218% Y/Y, as well as the unwinding of short positions.Despite these strong Q2 results, RIVN's shares are expensive and strongly overbought based on RSI. Investors buying now accept huge correction risks.hapabapaLess than two weeks ago, on the last day of June, I submitted my work about electric vehicle company Rivian Automotive $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ to Seeking Alpha called Rivian: Now A Short Squeeze Candidate. I upgraded Rivian Automotive to hold because Rivian was a heavily shorted
Rivian Automotive: Sell The Euphoria
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2023-07-14

Recursion Pharmaceuticals: Promising AI Drug Developer Needs Less Marketing, More Pragmatism

SummaryRecursion completed one of biotech's biggest ever IPO's in 2020, raising >$500m.The company wants to "decode biology," which strikes me as a little too ambitious.The business model is all about attracting biotech and pharma clients and earning milestone payments by developing good drug candidates.That's a pragmatic business model and Recursion perhaps has not quite understood that pharma is not tech - its end users being sick patients.Recursion has put together an intriguing pipeline with some intriguing targets - although none yet for its biggest partners Bayer and Roche. To my mind the company could benefit from a more pragmatic approach.da-kukInvestment ThesisLast time when I covered this company, I gave Recursion Pharmaceuticals'$Recursi
Recursion Pharmaceuticals: Promising AI Drug Developer Needs Less Marketing, More Pragmatism
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2023-07-12
UPST Successful? Consider a couple of points on this:1. Pagaya $Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ in June, announced a $541M ABS deal vs $174M for Upstart. Investors continue to be interested in Pagaya more than Upstart $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$. Pagaya continues to take market share with its lineup of other fintechs funneling all their second-look applications to Pagaya.2. Credit enhancements Upstart is forced to provide on this deal keeps creeping higher, indicating growing investor skepticism. A-class notes now at 47.2% enhancement. 2023-1 deal was at 43%. 2022 deals were in the 30% range. Is 47% enhancement some kind of new record for the ABS industry?3. Bankers distancing themselves from Upstart due
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2023-07-11

Micron - Memory Demand And Pricing To Improve In 2024

Summary:We’re still buy rated on Micron Technology, Inc. after its Q3 FY23 earnings results as we see memory industry demand-supply dynamics improving into 2024.While we understand investors' disappointment in Micron's gm% outlook for the next few quarters, we think the industry wafer starts, and capex cuts will reduce excess supply and stabilize prices.We expect the stock price to remain volatile in 2H23 as we continue to see a mixed-demand environment for PCs, smartphones, and servers, but we think revenue has bottomed.William_PotterMicron Technology, Inc. $Micron Technology(MU)$ reported 3Q23 earnings earlier this week; we’re seeing our investment thesis regarding memory industry demand-supply dynamics improving in 2H23 and 2024 playing
Micron - Memory Demand And Pricing To Improve In 2024
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2023-07-07
Good run for Kingsoft Cloud Holdings $Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd(KC)$. Expecting a pullback as investors take some profits as we are approaching overbought territory. Long term for this stock still looks good.kc can go up to 12

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