$POET Technologies Inc(POET)$ Going through the key points from their most recent earnings report. The ramp is still on schedule, and they confirmed an agreement with a Tier 1 laser company. There was also a $2.5m order from a repeat customer, and based on the accounts receivable recognized, shipments do seem to be moving out. There are some rumors floating around that NVDA might be using the POET Optical Interposer in their latest optical product. If that turns out to be accurate, LITE could be the Tier 1 laser company they referred to.
$Coherent(COHR)$ Expecting an open above 380. The AI cycle is just getting started, and this supercycle could run for years. Copper will ultimately be replaced by fiber. Algos might load up cheap tomorrow, similar to what happened with LITE.
$Coherent(COHR)$ The stock is rallying into the call, just as I expected based on how $Lumentum(LITE)$ played out. The earnings report was outstanding. No reason this shouldn't be trading higher after that print. Everything beat, and guidance came in 21% above expectations.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ $Coherent(COHR)$ It feels like the smartest people in the world work for these two companies. There is just something different about them compared to the rest.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ When a CEO says his firm's backlog consists of contractually paid orders, that's a pretty big deal. I wish I had caught him saying that sooner, but I still think there's substantial upside going forward.
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ Hopefully all the FOMO is gone and it is time to get back to the principles of investing. Is memory supply low? Is demand high? Is it going to increase or decrease?
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ Singapore's state fund Temasek is reportedly planning to invest in Samsung and SK Hynix. We might finally start seeing this take off.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Back in May, OCS was described as the biggest single tightrope, with supply gating both pace and slope. By Q4, that picture shifted: shipments doubled, and the first triple-digit OCS revenue quarter is now baked into guidance. At $1.01B in revenue, the 50% gross margin threshold arrived at roughly half the $2B run rate originally required — management acknowledged it came quite a bit sooner than expectations. With the $1.25B revenue target reached one quarter ahead of schedule, new financial targets are being deferred to the next OFC. Meanwhile, supply pressure has migrated to other areas. Pump lasers are now the new constraint, with demand running more than 30% above supply, triggering a fourfold ramp backed by 3-year take-o
$Lumentum(LITE)$ No need to worry, they pulled the same kind of games with AAOI before. Tomorrow should be good. These results are objectively excellent.
$SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS AB(SIVEF)$ I've been digging into this one quite a bit over the past few days. Finally opened a sizeable position in SIVE on the dip, which is exactly what I was waiting for.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Sung Cho, co-head of public technology investing, made the case that the AI trade is shifting away from the graphics processor cycle and toward companies that are wiring AI together — specifically optical and fiber equipment makers. He pointed to Lumentum and Coherent as names to watch in that space.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ It looks like a coordinated effort to push the price down. If you check the history of some of these accounts posting negative comments, you will see the same pattern across different platforms. The message seems to be driven by paid bashers, and the larger players appear to be trying to shake out retail. I'm holding and adding more if I can.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Optics look like the big winner in the AI infrastructure data center buildout. LITE is the leader in this space, no question about it.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Coherent is the picks-and-shovels play for data center optics, lasers, and transceivers moving data in and between DCs. It extended higher into the after-close print on Tuesday, riding a strong week driven by headlines around China transceiver restrictions. The structure should hold if it stays a leader here. I'm not touching it before earnings — but I'm expecting clean guidance. A weekly close above 900 opens the door to 1200+.
I added to my $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ position recently. Still comfortable with the AI memory thesis and the demand outlook. It could see a shakeout and sweep lower, but that doesn't really bother me. I'd just treat any weakness as a chance to add more.
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ KOSPI, I know the pattern all too well. You'll probably let us down again, but honestly, we've been through enough pain already. This feels like the time to finally buy that massive dip.
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ If we aren't really going below 49 or 50, then where are we headed from here? Chip sector stocks don't move sideways for long. They tend to swing pretty wildly in both directions.