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avatarWinston
2022-03-24

Palantir: SBC Is Definitely A Concern, But The War Is An Even Bigger Problem

Summary Palantir Technologies' (PLTR) stock prices fell -17.79% from February, partly attributed to the company missing consensus estimates' EPS of $0.04. For FY2020 and FY2021, the company's stock-based compensation totaled $1.27B and $778M, representing close to 116% and 50.4% of its respective revenues. Nonetheless, we expect its stock-based compensation to moderate over the next three years, once the company turns GAAP profitable. Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, we also expect government expenditures on defense and security to increase, which will further boost PLTR's revenue growth and adoption moving forward. As a result, we expect the company's excellent forward performance to counter the negative impact of its share-based compensation. Douglas Rissing/iStock via Getty Images
Palantir: SBC Is Definitely A Concern, But The War Is An Even Bigger Problem
avatarWinston
2023-03-07

Amazon: Profit Drivers In 7 Graphics

Amazon: Profit Drivers In 7 GraphicsSummaryTHEPALMER/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (NASDAQ:AMZN) exhibits competitive advantages across a variety of its businesses. As a result of investing heavily over more than two decades to solidify its favorable position, the company is likely to expand profits significantly over the next several years. High margin services, such as advertising, that leverage existing capabilities or infrastructure are growing at a faster rate than lower margin product sales, such as those from Whole Foods. Loss leading offers, such as sports coverage to boost Prime memberships, are likely to dwindle. Capital expenditures in both digital and physical infrastructure should continue to moderate after the pand
Amazon: Profit Drivers In 7 Graphics
avatarWinston
2023-04-07
$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ scam stock whose sole purpose for existing was for the insiders to dump their shares for whatever they could get. Scalp the shareholders. Never say anything in their CCs to generate any enthusiasm. They talk like they want to fail. Only Cathie Wood's interest has kept it from being a penny stock. That said, it's one of the few pure game dev stocks and they've got a competitive product.
avatarWinston
2023-06-22

Mitigate Nvidia risk with a value-chain exposure to AI

Mitigate $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ risk with a value-chain exposure to AIThe recent earnings announcement from Nvidia was historic. It’s not often that a firm shifts revenue guidance for an upcoming quarter from $7 billion to $11 billion. Nvidia’s total market capitalisation touched $1 trillion, something very few companies ever achieve1.An overzealous valuation?Professor Aswath Damodaran of New York University2, well known for his work on valuation, has said he cannot rationalise a $1 trillion valuation.Damodaran estimates Nvidia has a roughly 80% share of the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor market, which is around $25 billion today. Using bullish assumptions, which may not prove accurate, he looks to see growth in the AI semiconductor marke
Mitigate Nvidia risk with a value-chain exposure to AI
avatarWinston
2023-03-15

Google: Don't Fight The Trend (Technical Analysis, Rating Downgrade)

Google: Don't Fight The Trend (Technical Analysis, Rating Downgrade)lindsay_imagery$Alphabet(GOOG)$ (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has returned over 18% to investors who followed my last call, as I expected the stock to form the last leg of its corrective wave formation. The stock has successively dropped in a new downtrendand is heading into more weakness also confirmed by its most relevant industries and benchmarks. In this article, I discuss technical elements that underscore the increasingly high chances of seeing the stock performing poorly, while I also discuss the possibility of a more positive outcome. All elements considered lead me to qualify the stock as a hold position, while I would certainly not enter or add exposure in GOOG.A quick look at the big
Google: Don't Fight The Trend (Technical Analysis, Rating Downgrade)
avatarWinston
2023-03-01
2022 had some bad months as well, but Feb was unquestionably terrible. KWEB down over 17% after mounting a comeback October to January. See chart below. At support levels again, but risk is high with geopolitical instability. At least the economy is reopening.$Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$
avatarWinston
2023-03-17
$Netflix(NFLX)$Always flip before lunch break and watch…Can't believe I missed a 292 entry point. Still a good buy at 313 though. The price cuts were smart. Done in a time when they need to work with customers and add new subscriptions during high-as-a-kite inflation,depending on how market moves during that period, wash, rinse and repeat. Sometimes it wouldn’t hurt to take profit for day the and plan for the next day. Don’t be greedy…Good luck!
avatarWinston
2023-03-13
$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ my funds settled. Will add bigly tomorrow. remember 3 things - 1) US banking systems will NEVER fail. Fed will rescue just like$BAC in 2008 financial crisis - too big to fail 2) SOFI is the next $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ of finances and plus banks - the future of banks, eventually replacing traditional banks 3) price target short term $12, long-term 2028 - $120 to $200+
avatarWinston
2023-03-17
$Baidu(BIDU)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$. Rock solid endorsement by tech blogger Chapingjun, who has more than 2.4 million followers !Hong Kong-listed shares in China's Baidu rebounded 16 per cent on Friday as users told of their experiences with the Ernie bot.Users who received invite codes to try Ernie later in the day began to post and livestream tests of the Chinese chatbot and do a side-by-side comparison with U.S. chatbots such as Microsoft's Bing chatbot, which is powered by ChatGPT technology. One user described on the Weibo social media platform how Ernie had answered a question about the status of Hong Kong philosopher Zhang Jinqing accurately."The response was O.K.", the user said. "There is a definite ga
avatarWinston
2023-03-03

Nvidia Q4 Highlights: Inventory Glut And Revenue Decline

Nvidia Q4 Highlights: Inventory Glut And Revenue DeclineJustin SullivanBusiness Overview and Investment Thesis$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$(NASDAQ:NVDA) is an important player in the semiconductor industry, operating as a fabless chip designer. The company designs a range of products, including graphics processing units also called GPUs, central processing units (CPUs), data processingunits (DPUs), and network interface controllers (NICs). NVDA is truly known for its GPUs which one could argue are the backbone of the company's business. With this range of products, NVDA serves markets including gaming, data centers, professional visualization, autonomous vehicles, and OEMs.During myprevious article, I explained how NVDA is a well-established player in the s
Nvidia Q4 Highlights: Inventory Glut And Revenue Decline
avatarWinston
2023-03-22

JPMorgan And Capital One: Relatively Safe And Compelling Opportunities

JPMorgan And Capital One: Relatively Safe And Compelling OpportunitiesSummaryJPMorgan Chase & Co. and Capital One Financial Corporation appear to be among the best buying opportunities amid this banking industry mayhem.With many bank industry and bank-specific risks, investors should carefully evaluate liquidity and capital cushions.Valuations are now more interesting, but may worsen before improving.My preference is to own high quality companies, especially in banking, rather than speculating in distressed situations.This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Equanimity Research.Learn More »Gary YeowellThe bank failures of $Silvergate Capital(SI)$ (SI), $SVB Finan
JPMorgan And Capital One: Relatively Safe And Compelling Opportunities
avatarWinston
2023-03-22

JPMorgan Chase: Panic-Driven Deposits Provide Profitability Tailwinds

JPMorgan Chase: Panic-Driven Deposits Provide Profitability TailwindsSummaryJPM continues to command depositors' and market analysts' confidence in deposit stability and forward execution.This sentiment is demonstrated by the "deluge of deposits" flowing into JPM, along with other banks, potentially helping boost its Net Interest Income beyond $73B in FY2023.Combined with Moody's A1 credit rating and JPM's excellent liquidity sources, the bank continues to reign supreme with a lower unrealized loss-to-equity ratio of 5.6%.Investors may consider adding here if it consequently reduces or matches their dollar cost averages. Otherwise, with the rapidly declining sentiments, we may see JPM testing the low $100s again.Iana Miroshnichenko/iStock via Getty ImagesThis Is Why JPM Reigns Supreme In A
JPMorgan Chase: Panic-Driven Deposits Provide Profitability Tailwinds
avatarWinston
2023-03-02

Macy's Earnings Preview: Likely Beat Is Not A Reason To Buy

Macy's Earnings Preview: Likely Beat Is Not A Reason To BuySummary$Macy's(M)$ is will deliver Q4 earnings on March 2, and I believe that the bar has been set low enough for an EPS beat.However, the most likely candidate to move the stock on earnings day will be the outlook for this challenging year.Macy's business model is highly procyclical, which could be bad news given tight monetary policy, lingering inflation, and a potential economic slowdown.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of EPB Macro Research get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Drew AngererMacy's (NYSE:M) is gearing up to report Q4 earnings on March 2, ahead of the opening bell. This report should be particularly important for the New York-based retaile
Macy's Earnings Preview: Likely Beat Is Not A Reason To Buy
avatarWinston
2023-02-28

Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index not ramping up?

Feb 5: The underlying conditions?Over the last several weeks, we've had a rapid increase of value in equities,volumeas a result of primarily retailvolume. This past thursday,CBOErecorded 68 million contracts traded - an all time record involume. There will be a hangover from the gamma squeeze, one which is unprecedented. The market makers were forced to hedge the call options by purchasing stock, hence the last several weeks rally. The record number of ETFs, insider selling and "weak handed" retail will result in forced selling as market makers release their hedges. The underlying conditions of the quickest interest rate risingcampaign, and slowest topivot, will result in just yet another crash.Feb  24: commentThe support broke today, only need five more trading da
Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index not ramping up?
avatarWinston
2023-03-10

Baidu: Earnings Beat With A Chinese ChatGPT Catalyst

Baidu: Earnings Beat With A Chinese ChatGPT Catalystzorazhuang$Baidu(BIDU)$ (NASDAQ:BIDU) is often referred to as the "Google of China" and was ranked as the Number 1 AI Cloud provider, in H1 '22accordingto an IDC study, cited by Baidu. The company also aims to launch aChatGPT equivalent called "Ernie" very soon and is poised to benefit from AI market growth trends. The AI industry was valued at ~$93 billion in 2021 and isforecastto grow at a rapid 26.5% compounded annual growth rate [CAGR], reaching a value of just under $27 billion by 2026. Baidu has recently reported solid financial results for Q4 '22 as it beat both top and bottom line growth estimates. In addition, the company has announced a humongous buybackprogramof up to $5 billion up unt
Baidu: Earnings Beat With A Chinese ChatGPT Catalyst
avatarWinston
2023-02-28

Relief Rally reaching its peak

We have seen an impressive relief rally from $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Bullish, this was abullishleg, inside abearish trend. Still juicy and very profitable.It made a recent low in the 100's level, where we saw an importantvolume, which can be characterized as a capitulation on the segment that went from its ATH to the 100's This volume was composed of liquidated long and covered short positions. The volume has been shortening as it reached the top above the 200's level.Usually after a relief rally like this we can expect a retracement looking to gather more lows and discover the next support. If it is above the 100's level we will have a positive momentum divergence + abullish volume+ a double bottom or a W patt
Relief Rally reaching its peak
avatarWinston
2022-03-30

Can Roblox Stock Recover To $70 Levels? Consider Bookings Growth And Valuations

Summary Roblox's share price dropped after it announced its recent quarterly results, as the company's YoY bookings growth rates in Q4 2021 and January 2022 have slowed considerably. A rebound in RBLX's shares is likely to happen in 2H 2022, when the company's bookings growth accelerate again benefiting from an easier base for comparison. But a recovery to the $70 price level is quite challenging considering the implied valuation multiples and the weakness in Roblox's US & Canada region. Roblox is a Hold after taking into account both the stock's unappealing valuations and positive expectations of bookings growth acceleration in 2H 2022. Leon Neal/Getty Images News Elevator Pitch I have a Hold investment rating assigned to Roblox Corporation (NYSE:NYSE:RBLX). In my previous August 1
Can Roblox Stock Recover To $70 Levels? Consider Bookings Growth And Valuations
avatarWinston
2023-10-18

Short NVIDIA!!!

Short NVIDIA!!!I've been short on $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Nvidia the last month or so from 480, with funds aside to add to my positions if it push 490.I have two trend lines on this chart, the first is the short term trend which broke a couple days ago and the second is the main one to watch.The main trend starts from Jan 06 2023, this trend has held well and is drawn on the daily time frame. Last time we came back to revisit this trend it bounced and pushed back towards 480. Now we are back at this trend and on the hourly we have broken through, we have not yet broken it on the daily which is our main timeframe to watch the trend on. Breaking in on the hourly I believe is an early indication of what's to come. When we break
Short NVIDIA!!!
avatarWinston
2023-03-06
If $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ was first with a Flu/ Covid combination, I think the traditional flu market would already be large enough for them to do well. I think endemic Covid would just expand that TAM. I am bearish on Novavax because I like $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ and I doubt NVAX uptake.But the pandemic ends in May and everyone is calling it endemic now. So pandemic and natural immunity talk is just irrelevant. It's like saying I don't like republicans or democrats because of Nixon and LBJ.
avatarWinston
2022-03-28

Recovery Is Possible As Moderna Races Its Children Vaccine

Summary Moderna will be seeking regulatory approval for its young children's COVID-19 vaccines, ahead of Pfizer. Assuming US FDA approval, there is upside potential to its projected revenue, given millions of children unvaccinated. Moderna's two-dose regimen may be more popular compared to the three doses from Pfizer. Based on its latest APA, Moderna also raised its FY2022 sales guidance by 10% to $21B. Its pipeline is also highly promising, as its Personalized Cancer Vaccine cured two patients with head and neck cancer. Anchiy/E+ via Getty Images Investment Thesis Based on CDC, Moderna's (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:MRNA) COVID-19 vaccine has been proven to offer the most effectivelong-term protection against hospitalization and serious illnesses. In addition, its children's COVID-19 vaccine could p
Recovery Is Possible As Moderna Races Its Children Vaccine

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