However, history shows crowded positions are a reliable counter-indicatorTraders are growing increasingly confident that U.S. stocks are headed for a selloff. But history shows the opposite is more likely, according to an analysis by one macro strategist.Speculative traders are more bearish than at any time in the last decade, according to the latest release from the Commodity Futures Trading Commmission’s weekly commitment of traders report, which tracks futures-market positioning in a number of currencies, commodities and U.S. equity indexes.Net-short bets by noncommercial traders in S&P 500 e-mini futures have swelled to 321,459 contracts as of April 4, the largest level since October 2011.Futures-market positioning is generally viewed as a counter-indicator by equity strategists, m