MatthewWalter
MatthewWalter
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$Intel(INTC)$ Gelsinger is making giant decisions now, which they say should've been made 18 months ago. Many analysts absolutely concur, that even 20 fabs or 50 fabs, will not produce the catalyst of acceleration, and profitability. It won't ensure anything significant, except the disadvantageous, obvious, extreme void in innovation, let alone remain in the black, and even somewhat competitive, which they already speculate, obviously because of these diminishing profits at this rate. This lack of creativity in Intel which only $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , and $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , obviously continuously don't lack, is a compelling neg
$Broadcom(AVGO)$ I trimmed AVGO above $165, that I bought back some of what I trimmed under $155, and that I would buy more AVGO if it fell below $142. So, NOW I increased my position in AVGO by 33%, bringing my largest holding up to the full, over-weighted position that I once held. Big gainer for me. I think this will drop to 130 again, maybe even lower.Because semis are getting crushed, I also took advantage of the opportunity to buy more $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$. These chips are es
$Intel(INTC)$ I don't own any INTC but I don't think many on here realize how ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE the major fabless chip cos are for a second source of leading edge fab services. Intel being USA-based is a bonus cherry on top. There's a whole industry that wants Intel to succeed and will tolerate bumps in the road along the way. Low initial yields on a new node are not unheard of and it would be wrong to think of this news, even if true, as a death sentence for Intel. That said Intel has already told us not to expect profits from this venture for several years so IMHO shares don't look like a great opportunity here.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ The price of this stock is disconnected from fundamentals. The stock price is driven by sentiment which is still pretty good for this stock. However, the narrative of "NVDA wins 100% of AI chip space and there's no close second" can and will change when the revenue starts slowing and margins start to compress. Revenue growth will slow soon given that you can't keep up 200% revenue growth forever. In fact even if NVDA posts 100% revenue growth, that is still a narrative violation since that would represent a major drop in growth. As far as margins compressing, It could be right that margins will stay fat for years. But as someone who follows the AI chip space closely, I see that the next big AI narrativ
$Apple(AAPL)$ As impressive as Apple is, it’s really a one-trick pony. If the iPhone stumbles, almost everything else tends to drop with it. That’s why I think it’s smart to diversify your investments, no matter what the tax hit might be. Relying too much on one company can be risky—better to spread things out and play it safe.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ There is no growth in TSLAs future that justifies this price...not even close. Book value of $20. One year from now they'll be well on their way to being a niche player in the EV market, and there will be no significant revenue from robots, AI, or energy storage to justify this price. It's all a mirage.YOU PREDICT! Will Tesla Stock Soar or Sink by December 31, 2023? - AutoSpies Auto News
$Procter & Gamble(PG)$ It's nice to see PG and other consumer staple stocks perk up a bit but even with its recent movement, PG's total return for two years has trailed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ by 11.6%. It's even worse for my position--come Sept 6 it will be 19 years since I initiated my PG position. PG has lagged the market and its peers by 125% and 98% respectively.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ SMCI is definitely looking like it's circling the drain right now, and it feels like the buzzards are already swooping in. If you didn’t short it at 450 today, don’t worry—there’s still a chance to jump in at 400 tomorrow and make some serious cash. With the scandal hanging over it, we could see a 100-point drop any day now. It’s a wild ride, but if you’re ready to take the plunge, you might just cash in big this week!
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ The vast majority of NVDA's revenue comes from 5 companies spending nearly their entire free cash flow on GPUs. What happens when those companies build out their stack and don't need to dump their entire free cash flow into GPUs anymore? No-one seems to be doing fundamental valuations these days, but Nvidia belongs at $50. It will follow $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ lower

Time to sell NVDA?

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Is Nvidia a bad company? no probably not. Was a lot of the demand for high end GPU's at ridiculous margins likely severely overdone? Most definitely. Nvidia announcing a lame buyback program that is equivalent to 1 year of their cashflow, while at ATH prices while Jensen is selling off shares, and while one of their largest customers is now under heavy scrutiny in my mind signals a turn in the market. Without some groundbreaking new launch from an AI company like OpenAI to strengthen this bull market, I'm predicting a 20-30% short term downside in Nvidia through end of 2024, followed by a further correction in 2025 down to $30/share range.Most interesting of all is the Fed's recent pivot on interest ra
Time to sell NVDA?
$Broadcom(AVGO)$ Sept 5-post bell: It will not be so much about the numbers released. It will be more about the market`s reaction to these numbers. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ posted good numbers but the market`s reaction was not good. For short term investors & traders I recommend keeping your powder dry until the market digests these numbers.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Man, it really feels like Coinbase is trying to cover up a major earnings miss for next quarter. With all these recent moves, it seems like they're desperately distracting us from what's likely to be some pretty dismal numbers. They’re probably worried about the bad news coming and are doing everything they can to shift focus. It’s like a bad magic trick where you can see the strings. The whole thing feels like a big smoke-and-mirrors act to me. I can’t shake the feeling that they’re putting on a brave face while hiding the real, not-so-great news. Anyone else sensing this too, or is it just me?
$Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ Confused as to why this stock doesn't pay a dividend. It's not a growth company, they make apparel, which eventually gets capped out and has a finite number. By stalling returning profits to shareholders, it just ensures they get left with an empty bag when consumer trends change. Not something I'd want to invest in directly, and don't really understand why anyone would want to.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ Bought in around $625 and watched it climb to $1200, did not sell anything. I sold my entire position yesterday around $475. I've had a big year but this one got away. Not being able to file a 10K is a big deal in my mind. The other fact I did not know about was 80% held by retail. To me that is a red flag for many reasons. Too much downside risk. Poor performance I can manage, fraud I can not.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon always leads the megacaps down in a downtrend and lags them up in an uptrend. Worst pick of the megacaps for the past 5 years and will continue to underperform as the tech sector dominates and this poor retailer continues to struggle to keep up. Will head down to the $130 area before any form of support will be found.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ This stock is now the definition of dead money. Might bounce a bit over the next few months, it will take a long time for market sentiment about this stock to recover, and by the time it happens growth will have dwindled to almost nothing. AI is expensive, and there is very little revenue from it. I’m wondering how long these companies are going to be able to keep throwing money at it at this spend rate.
$Dollar General(DG)$$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ and $Target(TGT)$ have definitely given DG a boost recently, so now it’s DG’s turn to step up. If they can't deliver strong results, it could be a sign that they’re struggling to find their footing. Retail isn’t for the faint of heart, and making a buck in this space is no easy feat. I’m watching closely—this could be a make-or-break moment for DG. If they don’t show something impressive, it might be time to rethink this investment.
$Dollar General(DG)$ Awful management overall, just from a perspective of what their stores look like. When you prioritize every single other thing, over creating a welcoming atmosphere for customers, then you will eventually fail. This company treats their workers worse, staff the stores with one or two people at a time, and the stores are always look like a dump. I have one down the road from where I live, and it always amazes me, that almost every single time I go in there, the store has different workers. The turnover rate has to be astronomical. I am just browsing through stocks that are reporting earnings this week, and decided to check in here. I don't own stock here and wouldn't, based solely on the way they treat their employees.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Looks like the shorts are definitely having their way with COIN right now. Honestly, it might be a good idea to just sit back and wait. The way things are going, we could see it drop even more before finding a bottom. It’s a bit of a tough spot, but sometimes you’ve just got to ride out the storm and see where it lands. I’m holding off on making any big moves until we get a clearer picture. If it keeps dropping, there could be a better opportunity to scoop up shares at a lower price. For now, I’m just keeping an eye on it and staying patient. It’s frustrating, but sometimes waiting is the best strategy.
$Apple(AAPL)$ I was reducing my AAPL holdings during the same timeframe. We can only guess at another's motivations when it comes to selling. And certainly Warren has more access to AAPL leadership than I do. But for me, I can follow Warren's thinking on Owners Earnings taking into account forward EPS, dividends, and buybacks, and looking forward AAPL growth on this basis is forecast to be average. That's not the role I hired AAPL for in my portfolio and I'm less comfortable with the risk/reward and reliance on buybacks so I reduced the position (still significant but no longer number 1) and used the proceeds for other more growth oriented holdings.

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