S-REITs Surge Today Amid Recession Fears and Falling Rates, Says JP Morgan

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S-REITs Surge Today Amid Recession Fears and Falling Rates, Says JP Morgan

Edge03-12

As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.Although S-REITs are an unlikely place ...

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InvestToRetire
·03-13
Good to see both DBS and JP Morgan are giving positive signals for S-REITs. 👍
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS-REITs Surge Today Amid Recession Fears and Falling Rates, Says JP Morgan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-12 13:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://sg.news.yahoo.com/recession-fears-rise-risk-free-055350804.html><strong>Edge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.Although S-REITs are an unlikely place ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://sg.news.yahoo.com/recession-fears-rise-risk-free-055350804.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"M44U.SI","symbol_name":"丰树物流信托","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://sg.news.yahoo.com/recession-fears-rise-risk-free-055350804.html","article_id":"1115110151","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"yahoofinance_sg","url":"https://sg.news.yahoo.com/recession-fears-rise-risk-free-055350804.html","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"","selectors":"article, body","filters":"","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115110151","pubTimestamp":1741758662,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"yahoofinance_sg","name":"Yahoo Finance"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.Although S-REITs are an unlikely place ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"M44U.SI":"丰树物流信托","ME8U.SI":"丰树工业信托","J69U.SI":"星狮地产信托","A17U.SI":"凯德腾飞房产信托","HMN.SI":"凯德雅诗阁信托","C38U.SI":"凯德商用新加坡信托","AJBU.SI":"吉宝数据中心房地产信托","N2IU.SI":"丰树商业信托","BUOU.SI":"星狮物流工业信托","DCRU.SI":"DigiCore Reit USD","ACV.SI":"辉盛国际信托","M1GU.SI":"胜宝工业信托"},"translate_title":"摩根大通表示，由于经济衰退担忧和利率下降，S-REITs今天飙升","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"A17U.SI":1.1,"ACV.SI":1.1,"AJBU.SI":1.1,"BUOU.SI":1.1,"C38U.SI":1.1,"DCRU.SI":1.1,"HMN.SI":1.1,"J69U.SI":1.1,"M1GU.SI":1.1,"M44U.SI":1.1,"ME8U.SI":1.1,"N2IU.SI":1.1},"content_text":"As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.Although S-REITs are an unlikely place to \"hide\" during a recession, JP Morgan reckons that a faster than expected 31% drop in 6-month Singapore benchmark rates and lower 1-month Sora down 100 basis points (bps) to 2.4% may see investors rotating to defensive yield plays.Against this background, JP Morgan is expecting a 15% upside to the S-REITs' September 2024 highs.\"There is further potential for lower rates, as JPM and the Street are expecting two/three Fed rate cuts by end-2025, with our economists highlighting a 40% risk of a US recession this year. We estimate a 4% upside to S-REITs’ DPU for every 100 bps fall in floating rates, and anticipate that S-REITs will revise down borrowing cost guidance. Yield spreads of 340 bps, the highest level since March 2022 which triggered a rally then, is also supportive,\" JP Morgan says.Its top picks are Singapore-focused names including CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust C38u, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT A17u, Keppel DC REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust J69u and laggards such as Mapletree Logistics Trust M44u.S-REIT borrowing costs should trend down with two-thirds of S-REITs at or above stabilised borrowing costs, JP Morgan reckons.In particular, lower floating rates should benefit S-REITs with a high proportion of floating rate debt, such CDL Hospitality Trusts J85, and those with a larger share of SGD-denominated debt, such as Frasers Centrepoint Trust where borrowing costs could trend lower than the manager's guidance.Additionally, coupons for S-REIT bonds have fallen to a three-year low of 3.2% from reduced spreads and a drop in 3-year swap rates.S-REITs are relatively more attractive with yields at 6.3% compared to bank yields at 6.2%, according to JP Morgan.To this, the caveat has to be added that banks pay out 50% to 60% of their earnings compared to S-REITs minimum payout of 90% of distributable income.But, alternatives, including Singapore’s 6-month T-bill rates have fallen to 2.75%, and the 10-year bond yield is at 2.7% as of March 10. A widening yield spread could also trigger an S-REIT temporary, no matter how temporary.Almost all S-REITs surge at 2:00 pm, Mar 12th.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":true,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":413018777678144,"gmtCreate":1741853417148,"gmtModify":1741853696482,"author":{"id":"4172323236375242","authorId":"4172323236375242","name":"InvestToRetire","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d70dd9ca2f57b29c925c8b6753b8061","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4172323236375242","authorIdStr":"4172323236375242"},"htmlText":"Good to see both DBS and JP Morgan are giving positive signals for S-REITs. 👍","listText":"Good to see both DBS and JP Morgan are giving positive signals for S-REITs. 👍","text":"Good to see both DBS and JP Morgan are giving positive signals for S-REITs. 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/413018777678144","repostId":1115110151,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115110151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1741758662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115110151?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2025-03-12 13:51","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"S-REITs Surge Today Amid Recession Fears and Falling Rates, Says JP Morgan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115110151","media":"Edge","summary":"As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.Although S-REITs are an unlikely place ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although S-REITs are an unlikely place to &#34;hide&#34; during a recession, JP Morgan reckons that a faster than expected 31% drop in 6-month Singapore benchmark rates and lower 1-month Sora down 100 basis points (bps) to 2.4% may see investors rotating to defensive yield plays.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Against this background, JP Morgan is expecting a 15% upside to the S-REITs&#39; September 2024 highs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">&#34;There is further potential for lower rates, as JPM and the Street are expecting two/three Fed rate cuts by end-2025, with our economists highlighting a 40% risk of a US recession this year. We estimate a 4% upside to S-REITs’ DPU for every 100 bps fall in floating rates, and anticipate that S-REITs will revise down borrowing cost guidance. Yield spreads of 340 bps, the highest level since March 2022 which triggered a rally then, is also supportive,&#34; JP Morgan says.</p><p>Its top picks are Singapore-focused names including CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust <code>C38u</code>, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT <code>A17u</code>, Keppel DC REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust <code>J69u</code> and laggards such as Mapletree Logistics Trust <code>M44u</code>.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">S-REIT borrowing costs should trend down with two-thirds of S-REITs at or above stabilised borrowing costs, JP Morgan reckons.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In particular, lower floating rates should benefit S-REITs with a high proportion of floating rate debt, such CDL Hospitality Trusts <code>J85</code>, and those with a larger share of SGD-denominated debt, such as Frasers Centrepoint Trust where borrowing costs could trend lower than the manager&#39;s guidance.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Additionally, coupons for S-REIT bonds have fallen to a three-year low of 3.2% from reduced spreads and a drop in 3-year swap rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">S-REITs are relatively more attractive with yields at 6.3% compared to bank yields at 6.2%, according to JP Morgan.</p><p>To this, the caveat has to be added that banks pay out 50% to 60% of their earnings compared to S-REITs minimum payout of 90% of distributable income.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But, alternatives, including Singapore’s 6-month T-bill rates have fallen to 2.75%, and the 10-year bond yield is at 2.7% as of March 10. A widening yield spread could also trigger an S-REIT temporary, no matter how temporary.</p><p>Almost all S-REITs surge at 2:00 pm, Mar 12th.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ca797bf8b58bb43a535b4a3773d85f5\" tg-width=\"373\" tg-height=\"666\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S-REITs Surge Today Amid Recession Fears and Falling Rates, Says JP Morgan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS-REITs Surge Today Amid Recession Fears and Falling Rates, Says JP Morgan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-12 13:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://sg.news.yahoo.com/recession-fears-rise-risk-free-055350804.html><strong>Edge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.Although S-REITs are an unlikely place ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://sg.news.yahoo.com/recession-fears-rise-risk-free-055350804.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"M44U.SI":"丰树物流信托","ME8U.SI":"丰树工业信托","J69U.SI":"星狮地产信托","A17U.SI":"凯德腾飞房产信托","HMN.SI":"凯德雅诗阁信托","C38U.SI":"凯德商用新加坡信托","AJBU.SI":"吉宝数据中心房地产信托","N2IU.SI":"丰树商业信托","BUOU.SI":"星狮物流工业信托","DCRU.SI":"DigiCore Reit USD","ACV.SI":"辉盛国际信托","M1GU.SI":"胜宝工业信托"},"source_url":"https://sg.news.yahoo.com/recession-fears-rise-risk-free-055350804.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115110151","content_text":"As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.Although S-REITs are an unlikely place to \"hide\" during a recession, JP Morgan reckons that a faster than expected 31% drop in 6-month Singapore benchmark rates and lower 1-month Sora down 100 basis points (bps) to 2.4% may see investors rotating to defensive yield plays.Against this background, JP Morgan is expecting a 15% upside to the S-REITs' September 2024 highs.\"There is further potential for lower rates, as JPM and the Street are expecting two/three Fed rate cuts by end-2025, with our economists highlighting a 40% risk of a US recession this year. We estimate a 4% upside to S-REITs’ DPU for every 100 bps fall in floating rates, and anticipate that S-REITs will revise down borrowing cost guidance. Yield spreads of 340 bps, the highest level since March 2022 which triggered a rally then, is also supportive,\" JP Morgan says.Its top picks are Singapore-focused names including CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust C38u, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT A17u, Keppel DC REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust J69u and laggards such as Mapletree Logistics Trust M44u.S-REIT borrowing costs should trend down with two-thirds of S-REITs at or above stabilised borrowing costs, JP Morgan reckons.In particular, lower floating rates should benefit S-REITs with a high proportion of floating rate debt, such CDL Hospitality Trusts J85, and those with a larger share of SGD-denominated debt, such as Frasers Centrepoint Trust where borrowing costs could trend lower than the manager's guidance.Additionally, coupons for S-REIT bonds have fallen to a three-year low of 3.2% from reduced spreads and a drop in 3-year swap rates.S-REITs are relatively more attractive with yields at 6.3% compared to bank yields at 6.2%, according to JP Morgan.To this, the caveat has to be added that banks pay out 50% to 60% of their earnings compared to S-REITs minimum payout of 90% of distributable income.But, alternatives, including Singapore’s 6-month T-bill rates have fallen to 2.75%, and the 10-year bond yield is at 2.7% as of March 10. A widening yield spread could also trigger an S-REIT temporary, no matter how temporary.Almost all S-REITs surge at 2:00 pm, Mar 12th.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}