To The Moon

If I had to summarize my first half of 2026 in one sentence, I would say: It was a first half filled with both pain and reward. The reward was that I saw the opportunity in the memory sector early. The pain was that I got the direction right, but I did not truly hold on. The best decision I made in the first half of the year was starting to build a position in the memory sector in January, mainly through Micron. My thinking at the time was simple: As HBM prices continued to rise, DRAM and NAND were also entering a new pricing upcycle. The memory industry was likely moving back into a strong cycle. Historically, memory has always been a classic cyclical industry. Every few years, it enters a powerful upcycle. But this time is different. This cycle is not only driven by a normal supply-deman

The $Micron Technology(MU)$ memory cycle is over and the bubble is popping. At least that's what the market is pricing after a 25% crash in two weeks. There's just one problem: the "bubble" is sold out for the next two years. Two weeks ago $Micron Technology(MU)$ printed one of the greatest quarters in semiconductor history: $41B in revenue, up 345% YoY, 85% margins, and guidance for $50B next quarter. The stock made new ATHs at 1259... then gave back 300 points on cycle fears. But this isn't the old Micron; 16 take or pay contracts with binding price floors and $22B in customer deposits mean customers pay whether they take delivery or not. Management says margins at FLOOR pric

The OCBC Mid-Year Warning: Why New IPOs Face a 20% Growth Hurdle 🦖 I thought OCBC’s warning was about weak IPOs, it is really about how strong the existing market has become after MAS pushed S$6.5b into Singapore equities. When secondary names get repriced upwards first, any new listing has to steal your CPF and SRS away from proven payers, not just tell a nice growth story. That is the part I do not think most income investors have clocked yet. For a 55-year-old who still needs REIT distributions to top up CPF and SRS, the real tension is this, OCBC’s team is signalling that unless a new issuer can show at least 20% earnings growth, it probably does not deserve the same multiple as the stocks already in your retirement portfolio. That higher bar makes every dollar you shift from a seasone

All Three Banks at All-Time Highs, Is It Still Safe to Buy? 🦖 Everyone is cheering that DBS, OCBC and UOB are at record highs, but the part your broker is not talking about is that the three banks are now three very different stories for your retirement money. DBS just crossed a line this week, not because the business weakened, but because the same dividend now buys you less income at today’s price. OCBC looks like the safest name on paper, yet its income case is weaker than many investors realise, and UOB is quietly getting more expensive on a yield that was already thin. 📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/w63SochfWk0 📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/all-three-banks-at-all-time-highs