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08:09
$SPY Triggers Sixth 200SMA Event as History Points to +35% Bounce
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ closed below the 200-day SMA 6 times in history. Every single time, it recovered. Here's every time it broke, what caused it, and the return after it crossed back above 200SMA again: ๐ด Sep 2000 โ Apr 2003 (31 months) Dot-Com bubble burst. Trillions in overvalued tech stocks imploded. Drawdown: โ49% | 1Y return after: +33% ๐ด Jan 2008 โ Jun 2009 (17 months) Global Financial Crisis. Overleveraged banks, toxic mortgage debt collapsed. Drawdown: โ57% | 1Y return after: +45% ๐ก Aug 2011 โ Oct 2011 (3 months) US credit downgraded for the first time ever. Euro debt crisis erupted. Drawdown: โ21% | 1Y return after: +27% ๐ฃ Feb 2020 โ Jul 2020 (4.5 months) COVID-19 shut down the global economy overnight. Drawdown: โ34% | 1Y re
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08:14
Top Market Move | Re-Entry Signals Trigger for $UNP $ULTA $LLY
Market setups signal short-term bullish opportunities in select names, with $UNP, $ULTA, and $LLY showing high-probability re-entry points for potential 5โ10% rallies over the next 6โ10 weeks. 1. $Union Pacific(UNP)$ UNP just hit all bullish criteria ๐ THT Combined Signal fired a fresh long inside this bull cycle. In this setup, 75% of cases see a 5% to 10% move up within 7 weeks. Average pullback before the move is about 5%, so my ideal entry is near 232. System says enter now. If we get another 5% drop, even better. 2. $ulta beauty(ULTA)$ 83% of the time this $ULTA setup rallies 8% to 10%. Long term bull cycle is intact. Price has pulled back into fair value again. Historically this has been a solid shor
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08:04
$SPY Repeats 2025 Pattern: Distribution Phase Points to $651โ$635 Test
1 year ago, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ broke DISTRIBUTION PHASE on Feb 28, 2025. It then dropped from $580 to $480. This year on March 10, this phase is confirmed by a massive rejection at $677. I'll explain what triggered the breakdown and then where I think the SPY will bounce. SPY most likely (80%) would have bottomed in March/April 2026. US mid-terms is coming, the war can't drag on too long and Trump knows this. 5 triggers cuasing this breakdown: 1. US and IRAN war dragging on longer then 1 month 2. March 18 FOMC will be hawkish (no rate cuts and too much uncertainty) 3. US labor market clearly cooling off becuase of AI. 4. AI uncertainty and its impacts on labour 5. War causing inflation to spike and oil/commodities to spike Make sure
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07:56
$SPY Downtrend Intact Despite Potential +2% Relief Rally
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ โ The Current Reality Price is sitting at downtrend channel support, which could allow for a short-term bounce. Moves within this channel can easily reach +2% in upcoming week, making it tempting to turn optimistic if it happens over the course of 3-4 consecutive sessions (eg. Mon +0.4%, Tue +0.7%, Wed +0.5%, Thur +0.3%). The reality is market structure has already evolved into a an established downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. There could be selective long ideas/trades to be taken but, the downtrend channel supported by deterioration in breadth isnโt an environment where holding with a conventional short term moving average stop is ideal. It is much more advisable to be more proactive with your partial pr
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03-11
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป By Jensen Huang
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป Layer 1: Energy $Uranium(UEC)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ $GE Vernova Inc.(GEV)$ $Quanta(PWR)$ $Amprius Technologies Operating Inc(AMPX)$ $Vicor(VICR)$ $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ $Navitas Semiconductor Corp(NVTS)$ $BWX Technologies Inc(BWXT)$ $Centrus(LEU)$ $Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$ Layer 2: C
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03-14 10:41
Logistics Moat: McKesson Moves Drugs, Unlocks High-Margin Services
Some thoughts on $McKesson(MCK)$ Most patients never encounter McKesson. Doctors prescribe drugs, pharmacies dispense them, and manufacturers produce them. But McKesson actually moves the medicine through the system. They function less like a healthcare company and more like infrastructure. They operate a massive logistics network that moves pharmaceuticals from manufacturers to hospitals, pharmacies, and clinics across the US. Once something becomes embedded this deeply into a system, it stops looking like a business and starts looking like plumbing. From the outside the economics appear unusual. McKesson generates hundreds of billions in annual revenue, but operates on thin margins. Enormous volumes are moved, but with only small margins attached
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03-14 10:09
Technical Warning: Nasdaq Signals 77% Probability of Bearish Shift
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ โก Key Takeaway The NASDAQ remains in the Bullish Zone, but a 77% probability of Bearish zone entry within 3 days signals severe structural stress requiring immediate defensive action. Risk Level-2 conditions are active, with buying pressure collapsing and a descending rectangle pattern projecting continued downside over the next 10 days. The tactical re-entry window is identified at 21,891.0 (Mar 17โ18), with a sell target of 22,150.4 (Mar 24โ25), defining the structured re-engagement framework post-correction. โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ Section 1. Comprehensive Price A
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03-14 10:39
Mapping Market Power: Key Monopolies, Duopolies, and Oligopolies
This overview categorizes major companies by market power: monopolies dominate niche sectors, duopolies share control between two leaders, and oligopolies consist of a few key players shaping entire industries. It highlights how market structure drives pricing, retention, and competitive advantage. ๐ฐ Monopolies $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ - advance semi fab $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ โ EUV lithography $VeriSign(VRSN)$ - domain name registry $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ โ credit scores $Intuit(INTU)$ โ tax preparation software $Thermo Fisher
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03-14 10:21
AI Labs Profit Thesis: OpenAI & Anthropic Set Path to Sustainable Margins and High Retention
There seems to be endless debate around AI companies, and whether they have โupside down P&Lsโ that will forever lose money, or if they will turn into cash cows in the future. Whether this sentiment is pointed at the large labs like OpenAI and Anthropic, or upstarts like Cursor, I hear it all the time! And I canโt tell if the bears just want to confirm their priors on AI negativity, if the bulls just have blind naive optimism, or if anyone really has a pov grounded in real analysis. As an early stage VC I certainly fall into the โperpetually optimisticโ camp, so you can apply the appropriate filter to this post :) But for this post I wanted to focus on the profitability debate centered around the large labs, and why I think theyโll turn into wildly profitable business. Thereโs three ma
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03-14 10:12
SPY Break Above $670 Could Trigger Upside Move
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ broke this DOWNTREND (bullish if we can stay above it towards $672) I give my technical analysis at BELOW for you to read. PCE came in flat, giving the market no clear macro signal. Direction now depends on 5 catalysts: 1. USโIran war duration conflict extending past 1 month raises energy risk and volatility. 2. AI sector momentum currently peaking while supply chains face disruption from the conflict. 3. Labour market cooling continued downward revisions suggest slowing growth. 4. FOMC (March 18) policy tone will be critical for rate expectations. 5. March inflation risk oil trading above $100/bbl could push CPI higher next month. Technically, SPY remains in a short-term downtrend and is consolidating near key lev
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03-14 09:59
Rebound or Breakdown? MSTR, RIVN, NIO & QQQ at Critical Levels
Several key momentum names are approaching critical technical levels, with rebounds, support tests, and potential breakdowns shaping the near-term outlook. Investors are closely watching whether these levels hold to determine the next market move. 1. $Strategy(MSTR)$ MSTR +5% today and the $190 โ $200 rebound is on the table. Monthly BX is still dark red, so the long term model is not bullish yet. In bear cycles most relief bounces are traps, so Iโll stay patient and wait for confirmation. 2. $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Volatile week for $RIVN, but my bull case is still on the table. Fair Value support is being tested and I expect a bounce into April / May if it holds. 3.
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03-14 09:48
PLTR - Bullish Pennant Hovering Beneath 50-MA
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ - Bullish Pennant Hovering Beneath 50-MA Came across $PLTR from Markadiusz45 portfolio update post. The relative strength here looks promising relative to not just the market, sector, but also its own industry group $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ that's currently showing leadership. Price has been riding above the 10 vs 20-MA since beginning of march, well ahead of $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ and $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ . While price resisted right beneath declining 50-MA for 6th session, way ahead of $IGV distance to 50-MA. The recent rejection at the 50-MA afte
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03-14 09:41
SPX Falls Below Central Monthly Level as Volatility Drives Repeated Reversals
Losing the Central Monthly level for a short period like in November happens a couple of times per year, however, few weeks ago I highlighted that staying below this level for long is a concerning condition from corrections and bear markets. Currently the price for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and most of the securities from our watchlist is below this level. The second chart is a zoom in of the Central Weekly Level for the same period, see the price breaching the โCโ marked in green in some weeks as part of the normal price action of a bull market. Since February, the dotted area shows how volatile has been the price printing multiple invalidations or reversals during the same week. The zoomed chart includes the Central Weekly Level AND the support an
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03-14 09:15
The market's biggest winners are playing a different game entirely
Finding 10x investments isnโt about running the best DCF model or guessing next quarterโs earnings better than the next guy. History shows that the marketโs biggest winners have gotten their strategy right early and simply ridden massive waves to incredible heights. Maybe they didnโt know what they were doing at the time (ex. Googleโs founders didnโt know what they had on their hands early on, whereas $Uber(UBER)$ founder Travis Kalanick did), but we can learn from the last two decades of investing to project out the next 10x (100x?) stocks. Today, Iโm going to dive into how we should understand changes in discovery and distribution should be understood by investors and why, sometimes, going for scale above all else is the best strategy. Pre-Inter
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03-14 09:20
Oil Shock & Volatility Hit SPX as NDX Slides While Bitcoin Rebounds
U.S. equities endured extreme volatility this week, recording a third consecutive weekly decline and establishing new closing lows for 2026. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is now down -3.1% YTD, converging with the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , while the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ trails closely with a -2.8% loss for the year. Escalating conflict in the Middle East remained the main driver of market pressure. An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy costs soaring. Oil futures $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ closed at $99. Rising fuel costs combined with unexpected labor market weakness to stoke fears of slowing growth and rising
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03-13 21:04
$AMTX Surges 25% Amid Biofuel Momentum, Eyes $2.00 Resistance
$Aemetis(AMTX)$ Aemetis Inc (AMTX) Soared +24.68%: Biofuel Stock Surges on High Volume, Breaks $1.90 Latest Close Data: Closed at $1.92 on March 12, up 24.68% from the previous close. The stock is now trading ~47.5% below its 52-week high of $3.66. Core Market Drivers: The surge was driven by a significant breakout in trading volume (5.52x the average, 5.71% turnover), indicating strong buying interest. The company, a renewable fuels producer, likely benefited from positive sentiment in the alternative energy sector. There were no major news releases, suggesting the move was technically driven. Technical Analysis: The volume surge is a key bullish signal. The RSI (6-day) is at 88.2, indicating extreme overbought conditions, while the RSI (12-day)
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03-13 20:42
$SDOT Still 93% Below 52-Week High, Momentum Breakout in Play
$Sadot(SDOT)$ Sadot (SDOT) Soars +13.23%: High-Volume Rebound Tests $2.14, Eyes on $3.27 Resistance Latest Close: $2.14 (+13.23%), trading significantly below its 52-week high of $33.00 (-93.5%). Core Market Drivers: The surge was driven by extremely high retail participation, with small retail orders constituting the bulk of daily volume. The company's micro-cap status and low P/S ratio may be attracting speculative interest amidst a lack of major corporate or macro news. Technical Analysis: The move was accompanied by massive volume (264.9K shares, 7.32x average, 14.33% turnover). The 6-day RSI jumped from oversold levels at 24.17 to 53.50, indicating a strong momentum shift. The MACD histogram turned positive (-0.0039), suggesting a potential b
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03-13 19:26
Copper Profits Surpass Iron Ore for the First Time: BHPโs Earnings Send a Major Signal
๐ Hi Tigers, A notable shift has just emerged in the mining industry. The latest earnings report from BHP, the worldโs largest mining company, shows that copper has surpassed iron ore as the companyโs biggest profit contributor for the first time in history. At first glance, this may seem like just a small change in the earnings report. However, many commodity analysts believe it could signal a structural shift in global resource demand. Today, letโs quickly break down the key takeaways from this report. ๐ Key Earnings Today: $BHP Billiton(BHP)$ Core figures at a glance: Net profit (first half): +30% year-over-year Total revenue: $27.9 billion, +11% YoY Copper segment: Became the largest profit contributor for the first time Iron ore segment: Reve
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03-13 19:31
๐ข๏ธ Oil Above $100, U.S. Stocks Tumble โ 5 Things Investors Must Know Today ๐ March 12, 2026
If you opened your trading app today and saw a sea of red, youโre definitely not alone. March 12 turned into one of those classic macro-driven trading days: oil surged past $100, the U.S. dollar strengthened sharply, and U.S. stocks recorded their biggest drop of the year. When geopolitics, commodities, and monetary policy collide, markets tend to move fastโand today was a perfect example. But before reacting emotionally to a volatile session, itโs worth stepping back and understanding what actually drove the market today. Here are the five developments every investor should know. ๐ข๏ธ 1๏ธโฃ Oil Breaks $100 โ Energy Risk Is Back The biggest story today is simple but powerful: oil is back above $100 per barrel. According to Reuters and Bloomberg market data, Brent crude surged more than 10% int
TOP่ช็ฑ่่บบๅนณ: Oil rises โ inflation fears increase โ rate cuts become less likely โ the dollar strengthens. And once the dollar strengthens, financial conditions tighten globally, which tends to pressure risk assets.
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03-13 19:33
The End of Hong Kongโs โZero IPO Breakโ Myth: The IPO Market Is Starting to Diverge in 2026
๐ Hi Tigers, A noticeable change has recently appeared in the Hong Kong IPO market. The myth of โzero IPO breakโ has finally been broken. For a while, many investors followed a simple strategy: Subscribe to any IPO, and you would likely make money. However, a symbolic event occurred on March 11: Several Hong Kong IPOs experienced first-day price drops. This may signal that: Hong Kong IPO investing is entering a โselective era.โ Today, letโs take a look at the latest IPO opportunities. 1. Todayโs IPO Focus 1๏ธโฃ Feisu Innovation ( $FS.COM(03355)$ ) Subscription period: March 13 โ March 17 Entry fee: HKD 4,201.96 Business: Smart manufacturing software and industrial automation solutions Main services include: Factory digitalization Equipment manageme
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