To The Moon

In the past week, a lot of things have changed, and most of the changes are opposite to the main trend in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. With Trump officially starting his second term in the White House next week, does this "reverse" trend mean a new trend is coming or just the last correction?First of all, let's look at crude oil prices. The price has gone up for three weeks in a row, but it still hasn't helped the bulls get back to the central axis range or break through the downward trend line since 2023. But at least it's not as weak as it was before, hovering around 70. Since there isn't much direct news to drive the oil prices, it's hard to say how reliable this increase is during the semi-holiday period. Whether it can break through the trend line resistance this week or nex

$Schwab 5-10 Year Corporate Bond ETF(SCHI)$ $iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF(IEF)$ The 10-Year Treasury yield reaching 5% has wide-ranging implications for various industries due to its influence on borrowing costs, consumer behavior, and investment preferences. 1. Real Estate and REITs Impact: Negative Why: Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for real estate companies and reduce the attractiveness of REIT dividends compared to risk-free bonds. Additionally, higher yields can pressure property valuations as cap rates rise. Most Affected: Highly leveraged REITs, residential and commercial property developers. 2. Banking and Financial Services Impact: Mixed Why: Rising Treasury yields can exp

Historic AI Export Controls The U.S. has officially imposed the first-ever global AI chip export controls, a move aimed at limiting access to cutting-edge technology for specific nations. The three-tier global control system introduced by the Biden administration has sent shockwaves through the semiconductor sector, with stocks pulling back amid uncertainty. Nvidia ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ), the leader in AI chip production, has seen its stock price fall close to $130 from recent highs. Investors are asking: Is this a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction? Key Insights Impact of Export Controls The restrictions directly target high-performance AI chips like Nvidia’s A100 and H100 models. These controls could limit Nvidia’s revenue growth

Key PPI Data for January 14th:Monthly Change: 2024 The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in December.This was lower than the 0.3% expected and lower than the 0.4% increase in November.Annual change: wholesale prices rose 3.3% y/y, up from 3.0% in November, while this figure also remained relatively high.Core PPI: excluding food and energy prices. unchanged in December, up 3.5% y/y.January 15 CPI Index Expectations:The current consensus market expectation for December is:Headline CPI rose 0.4% from a year earlier, up from 0.3% in November, and increased 2.9% from a year earlier, above the Fed's 2% target and up from 2.7% in November.Core CPI rose 0.2% from a year earlier, down from 0.3% in November, and rose 3.3% from a year earlier, still above the Fed's 2% target and unchanged from the

$.SPX(.SPX) $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Today, I want to share my thoughts on Howard Marks' latest memo, which asserts that we are currently in a stock market bubble. I’ll also touch on a Bloomberg article questioning whether Marks can predict another bubble burst, as he did in 2000 before the dot-com crash. Let’s examine whether he can repeat that feat. highlighting how Marks’ memo aligns with recurring themes in my videos about the S&P 500, its risk-reward profile, and broader market dynamics. Howard Marks' Memo Highlights: Marks notes that the U.S. stock market dominates global market capitalization, with the top 10 U.S. companies representing 48%