To The Moon

Biden arrived in Bali yesterday for the G20 meeting. Prior to that meeting, he has a meeting with Xi Jinping. As vice president under Obama, Biden knows Xi well, only the last time he saw Xi in person was in 2017. Among other things, Biden will discuss the war in Ukraine and North Korea's missile launches with Xi. Given the tensions between the world's first and second economies, expectations surrounding this conversation are low. There is also no joint press conference scheduled after the conversation. But after years of fighting over trade, technology, human rights, and global influence, a conversation may already be seen as relaxation after earlier Nancy Pelosi brought things to a head with Taiwan.

There is one point where Biden and Xi can find common ground, though, and that is on the climate crisis. Beijing has previously indicated to John Kerry at the climate conference in Egypt that it wants further talks with the US on this, something previously made impossible by the tensions surrounding Taiwan. China wants to be carbon neutral by 2060. The country has a comprehensive plan to reduce methane emissions.

It was announced last week that Putin will not be present in Bali. He will be replaced by Lavrov. The US' goal at the G20 is to build more alliances and reduce tensions with China. But those alliances are not only aimed at fighting the Russians but also aim to counterbalance the Chinese. Except that Xi has now consolidated his power in China and will want to come across as a powerful leader externally. Moreover, China has good relations with many countries in Asia.

It is likely that the G20 will be a fascinating meeting of highly conflicting interests and, as a result, it will not be easy to reach an agreement. The G7 are aligned on many issues, but that is a different story for the G20. It is also the first meeting of world leaders since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Zelensky (Ukraine is not part of the G20) will participate via a video link.