To The Moon

I often find Fundamental indicators like the PE ratio function more like Sentiment indicators, and here's a key exampleThe more bullish Wall Street analysts are on earnings growth, the weaker subsequent returns are likely to be 1. it's in the price 2. it's a sentiment signal $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageWhy this chart is interesting, aside from the obvious, the data highlights the link between level of earnings enthusiasm vs future returns..ImageEarnings Enthusiasm in the AI AgeThere may be a sentiment signal there!Imagehttps://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1791181918681059723

Stock splits aren't cool anymore.Reasonsthe rise of index investing and ETFsadvent of fractional ownershipAlso, stock prices have had a good run for the most part, so management likely feels less need for creative strategies to try and game the stock price higher $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Imagehttps://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1790819516311544214

Last year over 40% of companies to IPO in America were from Other Countries (and almost 20% were Chinese companies)Why?US listed stocks trade at a valuation premium vs global, US is the largest, most liquid + deepest pool of capital - and most covered by research analysts.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1790478138935533663

Industrial Metal prices are Breaking higherThese commodities are at the center of several key macro/thematic cross currents:-China stimulus-Global inventory cycle-Manufacturing PMI reacceleration-Upsurge in capex (infra, factories, energy)-(and upside risks to commodities: inflation) $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ImageThis chart is going to be the first to know about which “macro edge risks” play out this year: recession and deflation if it breaks support vs reacceleration and resurgence if it breaks higher.https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1790125417250079035

Chart highlights 2 Major issues for Markets...1. Glass half-full:-AI boom may broaden out--Utilities are breaking higher ---anticipation of higher electricity demand as AI compute goes exponential potentially turns boring old Utilities into growth stocks 🤔 2. Flask half-empty: -AI hype is overcooked--Echoes of dot-com bubble peak---the demand story for Semiconductors is already in the price (and then some), meanwhile defensive Utilities are under-owned and due for rotation as the bull market matures 🫣(and then there's always the third option: ~both)What say ye? $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Vanguard Utilities ETF(VPU)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]Bullish (Fundamentals)35.4%Bullish (Technicals)12.4%Bearish (Fundamentals)41.6%Bearish (Technicals)10.7%Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):Bullish (Fundamentals)27.2%Bullish (Technicals)34.1%Bearish (Fundamentals)28.1%Bearish (Technicals)10.6%unpopular opinion: TIPS are kind of dumbIn a rising inflation situation the inflation component helps, but duration usually makes returns negative (e.g. 2022)In a falling inflation situation duration usually boosts returns, but inflation component means they lag nominal bondshttps://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1789431717436051718

Fairly clear and reliable 🚩for stocksglobal Cyclicals vs Defensives relative performance line recently capped out at the top end of its trend channel — this is something that signaled 3 major market peaks over the past decade.Hence, for the MSCI All Countries World Index (global equities), a red flag is clearly waving. Maybe it's different this time, but definitely worth stepping up your focus on risk management (take some time out to think about your plan, triggers, indicator set and framework... regardless of what happens). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$

Equities Survey (for practical purposes assume this is S&P500) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):Bullish (Fundamentals)34%Bullish (Technicals)25%Bearish (Fundamentals)22%Bearish (Technicals)19%Bonds Survey (for practical purposes assume this is US ~10-yr Treasuries)Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]Bullish (Fundamentals)30%Bullish (Technicals)18%Bearish (Fundamentals)41%Bearish (Technicals)11% https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-stockmarket-survey-5-may-2024

When people talk about using #Valuations for market timing, it's often presented in black and white "buy cheap and sell expensive" termsBut life is not black and white, it is nuanced, grey, noisy and complicated. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Buy cheap, and you might get a value trap.Sell expensive and you might get left behind.Here's how I think of it (the visual be

The flows show a cycle of hype and doubt $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The current correction may just be a shakeout on the way to a renewed cycle of hype Yet a formidable wall of worry still faces markets (resurgence risk, fiscal, (geo)politics, expensive valuations, monetary headwinds..)ImageIn Macro and Markets, even for so-called surprises and shocks, the clues are almost always there for those who are willing to look for them.e.g. what pressures are building up, where is the crowd (where are they not), what are the technicals doing, where are the ripples...https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1786224249281364128