To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: The index has traded intraday all time highs, breadth is overwhelmingly positive and momentum is about as good as it was when the market made a sharp pivot last November. This is not bearish and certainly makes my most recent index thoughts incorrect. I hesitate to become wildly bullish here, but I certainly cannot remain bearish. While the indices trade at all time highs, small caps (both $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ & $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ ) are further away from breaking out than they were at the end of March— this creates a doubt for me. I do not think it likely that a melt-up or euphoria scenario transpires without th

Upper range of relief rally looks to be met this morning — right on cue at the two week mark. So long as price trade between 5150-5000 range I will be of the speculation that the best of the relief rally is over and the decline that started in April is set to resume in May. Target remains 4800 and 4500-4600 under a more severe outcome. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has remained range bound with some good volatility between 5000-5150, trading near the upper range before markets open today. While it may not immediately look like it due to the recent volatility— the index has stalled after the initial bounce. If my speculation is right, price will fail to advance much further from here. My thought remains unchanged— this relief rally has effectively convinced participants the pullback has ended.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1786374878494630210

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A déjà vu scenario. I don't mind considering the scenario that repeats a similar path as the decline from last July through October. That corrective move was made difficult precisely because of a multi week period of uncertainty that created confusion for both bull and bear participants. Here is how I am thinking about it. In the decline from July - October 2023 the 2-3 week period of chop showed the market's positive bread as short lived (middle panel) and momentum stalling, barely going above positive (PPO lower panel). Considering these as markers, the analysis becomes simplified in that breadth should remain stressed and momentum fail to gain any meaningful traction if a similar decline path is in development. The

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thought: The relief rally looks to be stalling with price trading near 5100 yesterday, and starting to trade back below 5000 this morning. The best relief rallies convince participants the pullback is over. Staying ‘stuck’ in this 5000-5150 range for another week would help that cause. Decline targets remain 4800, and the 4500-4600 range under a stronger corrective move.Image2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts repeated: “the most effective corrections have a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems very well underway Stalling in the 5000-5150 range is what I am looking for to validate this thought3.Last week the S&P 500 was do

Soon the bouncing cat will have visitors. Sentiment is already shifting on X— if my speculating is correct this $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rally has ~75 pts of upside towards 5150 before stalling and resuming the corrective decline that started at the beginning of the month.ImageS&P 500 thoughts mid week: “a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems well underway …Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

This morning $TENCENT(00700)$ is breaking out of its well defined consolidation channel. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ continues to consolidate within its triangle at the lower boundary. Coupang digesting its recent breakout. I remain pleased with the “outside of US equites” category trade.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: I like to think that the most effective corrections often involve a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion. In the short term (1 - 2 weeks) a relief rally that progresses towards the range of 5050 - 5150 would have this effect.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A wonderful 2% decline throughout the week so far, and now nearly 5% off the all time highs. The correction criteria have worked well in signalling risk in advance. I am pleased with this analysis. As we head into the weekend the index sits at a psychological 5000 level of support. While it is not necessary, the best corrections include a stage where most participants are convinced it has concluded. A rally here towards 5150 I think would do exactly that.Follow me to learn more about anlaysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1781089499696783779

Looks like another slip on the banana peel in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ this morning. 5000 level likely to act as a psychological level of support— like 0.50 does for penny stocks. Probably good for a little relief bounce before resuming the downtrend thereafter.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1