To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Price below short term trend ✅Upside momentum decelerating ✅ Breadth Negative ❎Despite a negative close on all three indices, more stocks made new highs than new lows. 2/3 criteria ending Thurs May 30If the S&P 500 remains below 5245 and breadth paces for a negative close I will position short into the weekend. Initial targets for this trade will be 5100 - 5000. Greater detail, context & charts issues for Sunday morning longer format post + letter.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Breath closed negative today— and small caps continue to distance themselves from breakout. Stand-alone this is insufficient, but it is a start. From here, this is not looking like a melt-up scenario. At this rate another risk-off scenario will transpire should breadth keep negative and the index close below 4245. In that scenario I will have no heartache returning with a bearish outlook and positioning.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: The broader market indices continue to trade at or near record all time highs, meanwhile the risk-on participation remains lacking for another week. For a melt-up scenario to develop I believe the risk on categories must participate. Like it or not, ARKK in my view remains the modern market gauge for risk on equities. If you don't like that then the traditional Russell 2000 tells the same story. Risk on participation is absent. Until $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ trades above 52, and IWM above 212 (RUT above 2175) I remain neutral on my broader market thoughts and in no rush to hop aboard the melt-up train. If a melt-up scenario is truly underway, I think it is probable that the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Is it a melt-up? I don’t think yet. I shared last week while conceding a bearish stance that it would be difficult to become wildly bullish without the risk-on category (small caps) participating. This remains to be the case until $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ break out consistently trading above 212 and 52 respectively. As for the index itself, there is plenty of room before bearish thoughts re-emerge from me. Closing below 5230 would be a start.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1/status/1793666480199942527

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: The index has traded intraday all time highs, breadth is overwhelmingly positive and momentum is about as good as it was when the market made a sharp pivot last November. This is not bearish and certainly makes my most recent index thoughts incorrect. I hesitate to become wildly bullish here, but I certainly cannot remain bearish. While the indices trade at all time highs, small caps (both $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ & $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ ) are further away from breaking out than they were at the end of March— this creates a doubt for me. I do not think it likely that a melt-up or euphoria scenario transpires without th

Upper range of relief rally looks to be met this morning — right on cue at the two week mark. So long as price trade between 5150-5000 range I will be of the speculation that the best of the relief rally is over and the decline that started in April is set to resume in May. Target remains 4800 and 4500-4600 under a more severe outcome. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has remained range bound with some good volatility between 5000-5150, trading near the upper range before markets open today. While it may not immediately look like it due to the recent volatility— the index has stalled after the initial bounce. If my speculation is right, price will fail to advance much further from here. My thought remains unchanged— this relief rally has effectively convinced participants the pullback has ended.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1786374878494630210

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A déjà vu scenario. I don't mind considering the scenario that repeats a similar path as the decline from last July through October. That corrective move was made difficult precisely because of a multi week period of uncertainty that created confusion for both bull and bear participants. Here is how I am thinking about it. In the decline from July - October 2023 the 2-3 week period of chop showed the market's positive bread as short lived (middle panel) and momentum stalling, barely going above positive (PPO lower panel). Considering these as markers, the analysis becomes simplified in that breadth should remain stressed and momentum fail to gain any meaningful traction if a similar decline path is in development. The

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thought: The relief rally looks to be stalling with price trading near 5100 yesterday, and starting to trade back below 5000 this morning. The best relief rallies convince participants the pullback is over. Staying ‘stuck’ in this 5000-5150 range for another week would help that cause. Decline targets remain 4800, and the 4500-4600 range under a stronger corrective move.Image2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts repeated: “the most effective corrections have a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems very well underway Stalling in the 5000-5150 range is what I am looking for to validate this thought3.Last week the S&P 500 was do

Soon the bouncing cat will have visitors. Sentiment is already shifting on X— if my speculating is correct this $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rally has ~75 pts of upside towards 5150 before stalling and resuming the corrective decline that started at the beginning of the month.ImageS&P 500 thoughts mid week: “a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems well underway …Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1