Is the Main Downwave Here?! Don’t Be a Permabear — Know When to Lock In Gains
Recent capital flows in the financial markets paint quite an intriguing picture. While everyone is still watching to see if US stocks have peaked or will continue to surge, massive funds have quietly executed a major rotation. In today's note, I will use the latest market fund data to discuss these ongoing trend changes. Let me start with the conclusion: the current downward trend in U.S. stocks may not have actually ended, but until the S&P 500 posts a pullback of more than 8%, we should not preemptively assume this is a massive bear market. We can consider carefully building short positions, but once key market signals appear, we must take profits promptly and adjust our bearish view. $S&P 500(.SPX)$
Futures Weekly: The Hollow Rally?!U.S. Stocks & Bonds Climb While Capital Retreats🚀🚀
This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks. Following this series of changes, the market's barely-