Summary:Everything is just beginning. You know, the most thoroughly stripped "naked swimmer" will always act as the first domino to be pushed down before the economic crisis, and the whole process of domino being pushed down is also a continuous accelerating process.Why do Silicon Valley banks sound the prelude to the American crisis?Although the bank is small, the problems it reflects are not simple. Let's review these two key points:1. After the bank deposit in Silicon Valley triggered a run, the bank's $42 billion deposits were withdrawn in just a few hours! When the business closed on March 9th, the deposit deficit was negative 1 billion, which directly led to Silicon Valley Bank filing for bankruptcy.​​​2. Just after Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, The Federal Reserve and the

The global market may face the baptism of a perfect storm.In the US financial market, the headwind of interest rate is blowing stronger, and the major economies in Europe and Asia have also raised their future interest rate expectations.The global bond market is falling, the yield is rising, the revaluation of US stocks will be on the verge, and the S&P index has already shown signs of head shape.Breaking all this deadlock may be the completly falling below the 200-day moving average.Big risks mean big opportunities. Under the expectation that foreign capital will start to return to the US dollar again, there will be a low buying opportunity in global stock markets. For example, Chinese real estate stocks that have been suppressed for a long time may be more turbulent,It's time fo

Important information:What we are facing now is a rather divided market.You may have been exposed to too much news about buying the dip of A shares:China's macroeconomic data has just given a series of the most eye-catching transcripts: in January, the official PMI data of manufacturing and non-manufacturing both exceeded expectations and returned to the expansion range. Last year's Q4 GDP, industrial added value and retail sales in December, and the growth rate of non-agricultural fixed investment in the whole year of last year all exceeded expectations.Even the unemployment rate in December was lower than 5.7% in November. There are really too many rising reasons for A shares, but a key question you may not have noticed is: Why did Hong Kong and chinese market fa

The last central bank in the world to insist on large-scale quantitative easing is finally surrendering, but the timing is very interesting.When the Federal Reserve made great strides to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, and when inflation in the United States kept soaring and showed no sign of peaking, the Japanese central bank withstood the pressure and always adhered to the strategy of unlimited bond purchase, supporting the upper limit of 10-year Japanese bond yield below 0.25%.BUT How did it happen at this time: after US CPI peaked, hawkish interest rate hikes were confirmed to slow down, and the US dollar finally fell from its high level, it suddenly announced that it would relax the control of yield?Have you considered another possibility: the doves' surrender of th

After Powell's speech, The US stock market suddenly broke out in an inexplicable carnival, This makes the previous bullish bettors earn a lot of money. The market seems to only believe its own expectations, but doesn't care what Powell is saying at all. This trend of treating neutral news as good is very rare, and probably can only appear at the end of the year when liquidity is not abundant.When we take stock of Powell's speech last night, we will find that compared with the beginning of November, the new information only acknowledges that the previous monetary policy has made substantial progress, but immediately turns the conversation around and says that the current slowdown policy needs more evidence to prove that inflation has peaked and demand is slowing down continuously. And reite

Today, let's talk briefly about a strange situation: someone suddenly bet on the continuous decline of the US dollar.Yes, you are not mistaken.Although the US dollar index has stabilized and rebounded around 106, a large number of traders already believe that the decline of the US dollar probably does not stop there. They seem to be betting on such a script:A bigger round of dollar selling will start at any time, and the trend of the dollar index will appear in the typical form of head and shoulder top, thus turning downward in reverse.From the latest CFTC position data, there is a rare jump in the overweight of the asset management market in the US dollar short position, which makes the short position of the asset management market reach a new high in the past two years as of last week​​​

Ouch! Maybe It's time to change your trading strategyYou should be careful. After the CPI, the US stocks went out of a rare pulse rise under the expectation of slowing interest rate hikes. The S&P level was close to 4100 points. We shared the overall trend rhythm of US stocks very early before, and it is very likely that after bottoming out, there will be a double dip around 4100 points, and the current change is likely to be after Poland was attacked.​​​Long-term resistance level is above, and the market encountered the suppression of the 200-day moving average.To our surprise, S&P futures did not turn down after the attack on Poland, but actually rose slightly to test the high of 4050 points, completing the touch of the "wall of worry" we mentioned repeatedly

Ouch! Maybe It's time to change your trading strategyYou should be careful. After the CPI, the US stocks went out of a rare pulse rise under the expectation of slowing interest rate hikes. The S&P level was close to 4100 points. We shared the overall trend rhythm of US stocks very early before, and it is very likely that after bottoming out, there will be a double dip around 4100 points, and the current change is likely to be after Poland was attacked.​​​Long-term resistance level is above, and the market encountered the suppression of the 200-day moving average.To our surprise, S&P futures did not turn down after the attack on Poland, but actually rose slightly to test the high of 4050 points, completing the touch of the "wall of worry" we mentioned repeatedly

If you look at the comparison of 2008 and the current US stocks, the current stocks are making a final climb towards the top and would dive after the FOMC resolution result was announced.Many people may think this trend would repeat like 2008. But the question is, What technical and fundamental factors can support the US stocks to repeat the same curve? The answer is no, or even the opposite.As far as I can see, although there will be a double dip in US stocks after the rebound, it is still very likely that $S&P 500(.SPX)$will build a bottom in the current area around 3600 points and rebound after the mid-term elections in the US.1. Market stat

Many people may not realize how cheap Chinese assets is coming to be after a long period of selling.Take the Hang Seng Index for example. If we check the ultra-long-term monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index, we will find that Hang Seng has fallen below the upward trend line since the 1980s.Horizontally, the Hang Seng Index is close to the low point of Lehman crisis of 2008, . Judging from the current trend of the global economy, this has obviously be undervalued in the negative newsHang Seng's MACD bottom deviation has become more and more obvious. If we can grasp it correctly, it may be a cycle of oversold rebound for more than 2 months, and the risk-return ratio is greatly cost-effective.From the boll index of Hang Sen

Have you found a strange phenomenon? Although the word energy crisis has been very popular in recent days, saying that Europe and the United States are facing an unprecedented winter energy crisis, but as a result, energy price has falled so much , especially natural gas.Especially recently, American natural gas futures have fallen completely below the 50-week moving average.If the futures price of natural gas can stabilize on the 50-week moving average as it has done for many years before, we can also think that natural gas has completed the retracement of technical banks due to the completion of inventory in Europe and the reduction of demand for natural gas in Europe in winter. However, the fact is that natural gas actually completely fell below the 50-week

As Japan and Britain began to rescue the market one after another, The dollar finally began to retreat from its high levelThe US stock market stabilized, But the range of pull-up is not large, I think there will still be repetitions in the high probability, so I want to wait for a low point before trying to buy the dip. It is OK to establish a long position in this area, and stop the loss after breaking the previous low.The turnover range of the two volume and price indicators mentioned in my previous article is not very large, so i look at a weak rebound here​​​The rebound rate of subsequent trends depends on whether these two indicators will cooperate with a sharp riseConsidering that this is a double dip in US stocks, The weak rebound is due to the previous low, Coup

Powell's speech did not exceed the script expected by the market. Whether it was a 75 basis point interest rate hike or a speech after the meeting, it did not bring too many surprises to the market, let alone shock. Powell continued his steady and conservative style in the past and put the landing of this interest rate hike firmly within the expected red line.As early as Tuesday, in our forecast of the Fed's interest rate hike, we mentioned that the current market expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike path is: 75 BPS in September, 75 BPS in November and 50 BPS in December. The Eurodollar interest rate market has already completed the pricing in of another 200 basis points this year.Look at last night's interest rate statement and the chairman's speech after the meeting, and the

Among the average trends of all trading months from 1928 to 2021, the S&P index of US stocks has the greatest volatility in September and October, and it is now over half in September. It is inconceivable what the stock market with greater volatility than September will look like in October.​At present, the possibility of raising interest rates to 4.5% by the end of this year has been priced in the Eurodollar interest rate futures market​​This means that there will be a 200 basis point interest rate hike in the next three months or so, and the trend of the 2-year US debt interest rate has no intention of retreating at all, and has been rising in the direction of 4%.Let's look at another set of statistics:If we divide the S&P in 1978, 1985 and 1992 into equal periods and make fittin

After the Jackson Hole annual meeting and non-farm payrolls data were released, market expectations did not change.But what many may not have noticed is that a riskier event than the annual central bank meeting is quietly brewing-- A storm of central bank rate hikes sweeping the world. And this biggest risk of the week will gradually change the course of global stock markets starting Tuesday.And the center of the storm is the European Central Bank rate meeting to be announced this Thursday.Before that, the central banks of Canada, Australia, Chile and other countries will also announce the results of their interest rate meetings this week. At least five major economies will be involved in the biggest interest rate hike storm across Asia and Europe in the coming week.US Treasury&n

There is no doubt that for a long time to come, the source of global market fluctuations will come from the US bond market.Just last week Powell warnedAfter "the Federal Reserve will adopt restrictive monetary policy to curb high inflation for a period of time and will not relax monetary conditions prematurely",The two-year US bond yield immediately rose above 3.4%, reaching the highest level since the global financial crisis. This key change has become a very obvious signal light for the future US stock market crash.This is a comparison between the year-on-year increase of US inflation rate (red line) and the trend of 2-year US bond yield (black line).Obviously, Even though the yield of US bonds has soared in the past two years, The short-term interest rate increase triggered by the Feder

With the daily K of Nasdaq futures completely falling below the 20-day moving average, the bear market rebound, which started in mid-June and exceeded 20%, finally came to an end.From the medium-term K-line chart, the Nasdaq weekly line has gone out of a typical Eliot 8-wave cycle.So what's next?The retracement of US stocks may have just begun, and with a high probability, there will be a bottoming time lasting for several weeks. However, it is difficult to refresh the previous low of the Nasdaq in June, All the reversals began in the bond marketI don't know if you have noticed it. Just last week, when the US stock market came out of the peak reversal, the yield of the bond market has quietly risen continuously for more than a week. Even after the CPI showed signs of peaking, the prob

When last week's US CPI data confirmed the market's conjecture of "inflation peaking", the long sentiment was ignited overnight.S&P immediately broke the front resistance level of 4200, and tested the 200-day moving average upward. From the short-term technical point of view, almost all the indicators we mentioned before turned over.Among the four key indicators of S&P, except OBV, which remains low, all the other indicators give almost crazy bullish signals:Looking at the market breadth data of S&P, we will find that more than 90% of the constituent stocks of spx index have risen above the 50-day moving average, and the degree of emotional bullishness is almost similar to that in the middle of S&P's climb from April to May last yearHowever, the proportion of constituent st

The CPI data released last night was surprising. The data showed that: CPI grew 8.5% year-over-year in July vs. 9.1% previously and below the expected 8.7%. This article gonna answer 7 key questions: How to understand the importance of the declining July CPI? How do segments in CPI move in July? How did stock and futures market react yesterday? Will the bull market begin? Why traders bet on the increasing Treasury yields (important signal of recession)? When is the top of this rally? What is the long-term trend of&

The rebound of US stocks has reached the resistance level.I believe people who long the stocks in July have already gained a large floating profit. After the consecutive rally in July, the opening in August will not be very optimistic. What's more, the financial report of US stocks didn't present many surprises so far.​The U.S. Treasury yield continues to fall, and it has fallen below the support level.The market is still actively betting on the slowdown of the Fed's rate hike path. However, the new geopolitical event just happened made it possible for the Fed to reverse its policy.​The balance between the market and inflation is now tilted to the inflation side.Although many tests show