Since mid-July, the Japanese stock market has entered a stage of high volatility, during which a series of uncertain factors such as the rate hike of the Bank of Japan, the violent fluctuation of the yen exchange rate and the "Trump deal" ushered in the US election. From the perspective of the Japanese stock market, if the Trump administration brings reflation and the appreciation of the US dollar, then Japan will face greater pressure of capital outflow.Economic slowdown will continueFrom the perspective of stock pricing logic, it is inseparable from corporate profits and risk premiums, both of which are inseparable from the fundamentals of economic growth. Going back to the fundamentals of Japan's economic growth, we can see that GDP growth is slowing down. Generally speaking, it is diff

Since Japan launched its rate hike, the Japanese stock market has entered a high sideways consolidation stage, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by less than 3% in October. Recently, in the 50th House of Representatives election in Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its ruling position for the first time since 2009, and the Japanese stock market and exchange rate fluctuated greatly in the short term, which brought great uncertainty to Japan's monetary and fiscal policies in the future.There are downside risks to the economyAccording to published data, the Japanese government's second-quarter GDP growth rate was lowered from 0.8% to 0.7%, and the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was lowered from 3.1% to 2.9%. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate of private final c

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices soared last week, surpassing the $2700 mark and setting a historical high. Over the past two years, gold has climbed steadily, breaking record after record. Analysts from Bank of America recently pointed out that, driven by multiple factors, they maintain a target price of $3000 per ounce for gold.Gold futures closed above $2700, marking an impressive increase of over 30% this year. However, from a technical standpoint, gold has been overbought for an extended period, suggesting a potential for significant pullbacks.After a brief expected correction, buyers quickly stepped back in. A drop in interest rates, central bank purchases, political uncertainty, and rising sovereign debt are all pushing gold towar

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices reached new heights on Thursday, driven by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and escalating tensions in the Middle East, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.Spot gold hit a record $2,696.62 per ounce, while futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2,704.80 per ounce. The immediate catalyst for this surge was the Middle East unrest, prompting investors to flock to gold.Market Caution Before the ElectionFXTM Senior Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga notes that with less than three weeks until the U.S. election, the market may remain cautious. However, the uncertainty surrounding the election results has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold.Investors see both pr

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ has been smashing record highs left and right. As we closed 2023, prices soared well above the $2,000 per ounce mark, and let’s just say, 2024 has kept that momentum going strong. After the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut this September, gold shot past $2,600 an ounce, setting a new historical high. But here’s the kicker—gold stocks haven’t yet delivered the explosive returns investors were betting on.As of October 1, gold prices are up around 30% this year. Meanwhile, the mainstream gold stock ETFs, $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ and $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ , have climbed 32% and 33%, respectively. Sounds decent, rig

图片Thanks to expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Fed, precious metal prices are soaring, with silver $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ hitting its highest point since 2012. Silver has been one of the standout commodities this year. The Fed's shift toward more accommodative policies and prospects for further rate cuts are giving precious metals a boost. Plus, as China takes steps to invigorate its economy, the industrial demand for silver could rise, providing even more support for its price.Amelia Xiao Fu, head of commodities at CICC, stated:“With continuous rate cuts and potential ongoing stimulus from China, we expect silver to keep climbing in the coming quarters, aiming for $37.”Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices are holding steady near historic highs, with new U.S. consumer data pointing to economic weakness, providing a reason for further rate cuts in the coming months.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed at its November meeting has risen from about 40% to 57% following the recent policy meeting.BMO Capital Markets’ commodity analysts have released a new outlook, predicting an average gold price of around $2,700 per ounce in Q4, up 15% from their previous forecast of $2,350.Looking ahead to the next 12 months, they expect gold to average $2,663 per ounce in 2025, a 21% increase from their earlier estimate of $2,200. They’ve also raised their lon

Since mid-September, domestic and foreign gold prices have repeatedly hit record highs, exceeding US $2,600/oz, continuing the strong bull market since the fourth quarter of last year. As of September 17, the COMEX gold December contract has increased by more than 20% annually (see the chart below), and the full-year increase in 2023 is only 9.8%. This is also the third consecutive year of increase since 2022.The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which is an important node for gold prices. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the risk of callback after the interest rate cut is favorable. However, in the long run, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the decline in the real interest rate of the U.S. dollar stimulated the rise in investment dema

Even though gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices are still trading high, their upward momentum seems to wane with the arrival of September, a trend sometimes referred to as the “September Curse” in the gold market.Nicky Shiels, the Head of Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, recently highlighted that since 2009, gold prices have averaged a 2.4% drop in September. Analysts also note that since 2017, gold has averaged a 3.2% decline during this month.It’s not just gold, silver also suffers in September. Over the past 15 years, silver prices have dropped an average of 3.7% in the last month of Q3.Why does gold tend to fall in September?Several factors might be at play. Analysts suggest that traders might adjust their asset allocation strategies during

At the beginning of September, U.S. stocks fell again. It is worth noting that the Nasdaq index did not rise to the record high set on July 10, driven by the performance of large technology companies exceeding expectations in the second quarter and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We believe that the market's hidden worries about U.S. economic growth have affected investor confidence. In addition, the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, the increasing capital expenditure burden of U.S. technology companies and the uncertainty of fiscal policy brought by the general election have also led to the short-term weakness of U.S. stocks, and there is a great risk of adjustment in U.S. stocks in the short term.There are hidden worries in

Recently, gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices experienced a brief pullback after hitting record highs. However, traders and investors seem unphased, waiting for the next catalyst to push gold to new peaks. Gold reached a historic high of $2,560.30 a few days ago, so the recent dip is just a minor fluctuation within its overall upward trend.In early trading, December gold futures fell to a daily low of $2,504.40. Yet, market participants quickly seized this as a buying opportunity, and gold prices rebounded significantly in the afternoon, ending the day with only a slight drop of 0.15%. This minor retreat is largely due to a strong U.S. dollar, with the dollar index rising 0.13% to 101.776.Gold’s strong performance this year is attributed to

$Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices surged nearly 20% in 2024. Despite gold being near all-time highs, bullish analysts and investors far outnumber the bears. By the end of 2023, the top five gold-producing countries were China, Australia, Russia, Canada, and the U.S., producing 370 tons, 310 tons, 310 tons, 200 tons, and 170 tons of gold, respectively.According to the World Gold Council (WGC), as of May 2024, the U.S. holds the largest gold reserves globally, with 8,133 tons worth $628 billion, more than double Germany’s 3,351 tons, which ranks second.Where did all this gold come from, given the lack of major domestic gold mines in the U.S.? Most of America’s gold reserves were accumulated rapidly after World War II, which laid the foundation f

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ has been on a quiet yet explosive rally recently, reaching new record highs for the fourth time since April 2023. On Tuesday, December gold futures peaked at $2,570.40 and closed at $2,552.10, marking a $9.50 or 0.37% increase. The weak dollar remains a key driver behind this surge, with the dollar index dropping 0.49% to 101.35.Bullish technical patterns and increased safe-haven demand, especially from China, are also fueling gold’s rise. Cut Rates Once a Month?Market expectations of a significant shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy are behind the recent gold price jump. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the latest FOMC minutes and this Friday’s Jackson Hole economic symposium, where Fed

During the US trading session, gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices fell sharply. December gold futures dropped by $29.10 to $2,478.70 per ounce. This decline came despite US CPI data falling below 3%, indicating a slowdown in inflation, which usually supports gold prices.Typically, easing inflation strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts, which are positive for gold. The idea is that in a high-interest-rate environment, investors can earn higher risk-free returns from government bonds or high-yield savings accounts, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Lower rates could lead to funds flowing into gold and other markets.However, if the market has already priced in these expectations, it might react differently in the short ter