As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p
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Futures Weekly：Gold Longs Stay Concentrated—Can Oil’s Advance Hold Without Inventory Support?
Futures Weekly：Gold Longs Stay Concentrated—Can Oil’s Advance Hold Without Inventory Support?
Macro Strategy Weekly: VIX Seasonal Spike Incoming，Top Strategy for Choppy Markets
Our Call That Gold and U.S. Equities Had Topped Out in the Near Term Has Been Validated Again Hello everyone, welcome back to the Macro Strategy Weekly. In this weekly report, we regularly select contributors within the community who have relevant professional expertise to share and consolidate their market-strategy views. We also track, on a weekly basis, how those strategy calls have played out. Before turning to this week’s strategy discussion, let us review the results of our previous calls. On July 21 this year, our strategy weekly published an analysis titled: Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Bond Purchases Are Bearish for Markets—U.S. Equity and Gold Bulls Should Be Cautious The report received substantial engagem
Macro Strategy Weekly: VIX Seasonal Spike Incoming，Top Strategy for Choppy Markets
Weekly Valuation Watch：The US Equity Rally Faces a Test? Diverging Flows and Uneven M7 Valuations
This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction
Weekly Valuation Watch：The US Equity Rally Faces a Test? Diverging Flows and Uneven M7 Valuations
Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Buybacks, Jackson Hole, and the Key Trend Every Trader Must Watch
This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to
Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Buybacks, Jackson Hole, and the Key Trend Every Trader Must Watch
Futures Weekly:Institutions Pile into Energy&Metals as Tight Oil Inventories Risk Premiums
Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in
Futures Weekly:Institutions Pile into Energy&Metals as Tight Oil Inventories Risk Premiums
Macro Strategy Week:High Yields Squeeze Market as Volatility Returns,Major Opportunities brewing 💹
Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik
Macro Strategy Week:High Yields Squeeze Market as Volatility Returns,Major Opportunities brewing 💹
Weekly Valuation Watch : Free Cash Flow at Mega-Cap Stocks Is Sending Warning Signals
What deserves the most attention in the U.S. equity market this week is not the movement of the S&P 500 Index itself, but rather the structural changes taking place within the index. From a valuation perspective, the S&P 500’s overall price-to-earnings ratio remains at a relatively elevated level. Valuations in information technology, real estate, industrials, health care, and other sectors are all materially above the broader market, indicating that U.S. equities as a whole still lack a clear valuation cushion. From a fund-flow perspective, SPY has recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately USD 21.6 billion since July, but fund-flow divergence across sectors has become increasingly pronounced. Capital is not simply leaving the equity market; rather, it is being reallocated a
Weekly Valuation Watch : Free Cash Flow at Mega-Cap Stocks Is Sending Warning Signals
Macro Strategy Weekly : Both Forecasts Came True—Unusual Divergence Points to a Major Move
Hello everyone. It is time once again for the Macro Strategy Weekly Report. On a regular basis, we select contributors from the community with relevant professional qualifications to share a collection of market-strategy perspectives, and we track the subsequent performance of those strategy views each week. Before starting this report, let us review the outcomes of the forecasts in our previous article. On July 21 this year, our Strategy Weekly Report published an analytical report titled: 《Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound》 It received a large number of likes and shares at the time. As indicated by its title, the report forecast a rebound in gold and a modera
Macro Strategy Weekly : Both Forecasts Came True—Unusual Divergence Points to a Major Move
Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹
Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr
Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat
First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli
Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat
Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound
Last week U.S. equities posted a weekly decline: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.54% for the week, but sector performance diverged sharply. Energy rose 4.72%, leading the entire market; Real Estate, Consumer and Financials also gained; Technology plunged more than 5%, becoming the main drag on the index. Capital is rotating out of high-valuation sectors into Energy, Real Estate and defensive sectors in search of internal rebalancing — and the sectors that had been leading are starting to loosen. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$
Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound
Watch Out：Tech Stocks Continue to Bleed Amidst Index Buying Frenzy
In the recently concluded month of June, the US stock market exhibited an extremely fragmented "frenzy." On the one hand, macro funds were extremely fearful of missing out, with the SPY's single-month net inflow surging to a staggering $15.85 billion, nearly triple the size of May's inflow. On the other hand, the valuations of micro-level giants were pushed to extremes, with Tesla taking a commanding lead at a P/E ratio of 386.12x. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Tradr 2X Short TSLA Daily ETF(TSLQ)$ $ProShares Ultra TSLA ETF(TSLI)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
Watch Out：Tech Stocks Continue to Bleed Amidst Index Buying Frenzy
Futures Weekly： Equities Cool, Bonds Heat Up While Gold Falls Out of Favour
Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf
Futures Weekly： Equities Cool, Bonds Heat Up While Gold Falls Out of Favour
Futures Weekly： Equity Fund Outflows Narrow, While Gold Allocation Heats Up
In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of
Futures Weekly： Equity Fund Outflows Narrow, While Gold Allocation Heats Up
Futures Weekly:Copper Inventories Oscillate Lower, Crude Oil Inventory Breaks the Five-Year Average
In the latest week, U.S.-Iran talks remained deadlocked, while Trump began his state visit to China. U.S. President Trump arrived in Beijing on the evening of May 13, marking his first trip to China in nine years. He was accompanied by more than a dozen top U.S. business leaders, including tech figures such as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. The two heads of state held talks and set the tone by stating that “2026 should be a historic and landmark year that carries forward the past and opens a new chapter in China-U.S. relations.” This diplomatic progress was viewed by the market as a “new positioning” in China-U.S. relations, significantly boosting global risk appetite. As of 2:00 p.m. on May 15, 2026, the weekly performance of key assets was as follows: In an environment where macro expectations
Futures Weekly:Copper Inventories Oscillate Lower, Crude Oil Inventory Breaks the Five-Year Average
📊Futures Weekly：Mild Net Outflows in US Equity Funds While Massive Capital Bets on the Bond Market
Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of "extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated "Operation Liberty" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the "acceptance of Pakistani mediation." During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-
📊Futures Weekly：Mild Net Outflows in US Equity Funds While Massive Capital Bets on the Bond Market
💥How Long Can the Rally Last? 5 Red Flags for US Equities
Recently, the S&P 500 has maintained strength near its highs, but analyzing from multiple dimensions such as valuation, fund flows, and insider trading reveals that the internal market is not experiencing consistent expansion. The current US stock market is closer to a phase where 'index resilience remains strong, but structural divergence continues to deepen': At the index level, it is still supported by leading heavyweight stocks and capital inflow, but absolute stock-bond valuations are weak, sector valuations are diverging, insider trading signals and the internal strength disparities among the M7 all suggest that the constraints of operating at high levels have not disappeared. This article will systematically review the structural characteristics and potential constraints of curr
💥How Long Can the Rally Last? 5 Red Flags for US Equities
📊Futures Weekly：Equity Funds Face Deeper Outflows as Falling Metal Inventories Raise Price Risks
Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps
📊Futures Weekly：Equity Funds Face Deeper Outflows as Falling Metal Inventories Raise Price Risks
Latest Futures Class Recap:How Are Markets Pricing U.S.-Iran Risk?Can U.S. Stocks Still Push Higher?
This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe
Latest Futures Class Recap:How Are Markets Pricing U.S.-Iran Risk?Can U.S. Stocks Still Push Higher?
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