The RMB exchange rate fell to a new low in seven months. What's the next?A few days ago, the dollar continued its strong performance against the renminbi in previous months. On June 26, as the the US Dollar Index soared, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below 7.30 intraday, and the lowest point hit 7.308878. This is the first time since November 15, 2023 that it has broken through the above-mentioned mark.As of 07:00 on June 27, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar temporarily rose to the level of 7.298813, but the market is cautious about the prospect of a rebound in the RMB exchange rate. Why has the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar declined recently? In fact, this phenomenon is caused by the interweaving of multiple factors.Chart

The US dollar index plunged nearly 2% last Friday, the biggest one-day drop in about seven years. October's non-agricultural data was mixed, and the number of new jobs was higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose and wage inflation fell, and the labor market showed signs of slowing down. The dollar plummeted after the data was released. Even though the employment data is still strong, some Fed officials still support a small interest rate hike in December. With the decline of the US dollar, other major currencies gained a boost. As for the euro, it is uncertain whether the European Central Bank will continue to support the euro by raising interest rates. The euro may fall to the $0.95 level against the US dollar and remain weak for a longer period of time. The yen and Australia

By keeping Singapore strong. How does it works for its economy and cost of living? The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has tightened monetary policy today for the fifth time in a year, allowing a further strengthening in the Singapore dollar to help dampen inflation. In general, by tightening monetary policy, MAS is effectively allowing the Singapore dollar to appreciate. With Singapore buying almost everything it consumes from abroad, a stronger Singapore dollar will help convert foreign prices of imports into lower local prices. The flip side of that, however, is a possible hit on the competitiveness of the country's exports. “The policy stance will help dampen inflation in the near term and ensure medium-term price stability, providing the basis for sustainable economic growth,” M

Macro Edge #37Originally posted on thepensivenugget.comRisk assets beware! Global USD shortages have begun, signaling a turn in the global economic cycle. Stagflation, if not outright deflation, is now likely.Risk Assets Beware: Global USD Shortages Have Begun The USD is broadly stronger against a whole host of currencies, with global USD funding conditions clearly tightening Global USD funding conditions are critical to how far financial contagion spreads, and how deep the recession gets USDCNY is crashing, having moved from 6.4 to 6.75 in just 3 weeks. Stress levels in USD funding markets are obviously high, and are still increasing CNY’s shift, and it being one of the last to weaken vs the USD, heralds a shift in the global cycle - this does not bode well for economic growth and risk as