Hong Kong’s stocks fell in volatile trading, after an underwhelming press conference by the country’s economic planner poured cold water on two weeks of frenzied buying, raising questions about the strength and durability of the world’s biggest market rally.
The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 1.38%, the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) decreased by 1.17%.
In terms of individual stocks, CITIC saw a significant drop of 8.20%. ALI HEALTH also experienced a sharp decline, falling by 7.08%. HOPSON DEV HOLD plummeted by 9.43%, and CHINA JINMAO decreased by 7.56%. CHINA CINDA dropped by 7.69%, and GUOLIAN SEC fell by 18.23%.
On the positive side, XPENG-W rose by 4.00%. MEITUAN-W up 2.3%.
While equities rallied in recent weeks after a series of policy announcements designed to support the economy, enthusiasm over a stimulus-driven equity surge is cooling due to the lack of any further major initiatives at a key policy meeting Tuesday. A growing number of strategists and fund managers say Beijing needs to back up its spending pledges with real money, while others caution that the rally had gone too far too fast after benchmark indexes surged more than 30% in a matter of days.
“The market is tussling between expectation for more stimulus and economic realities,” said Yi Wang, head of quantitative investment at CSOP Asset Management Ltd. “Investors want to see a quick translation from stimulus measures into improving corporate earnings, better macro data — whether that’s with inflation, employment or local government debt. But there is a time gap between that expectation and the economic reality.”
At a briefing that will start at 10 a.m. local time on Saturday, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an will introduce moves to strengthen fiscal policy to shore up growth, and answer questions from reporters, the State Council Information Office said in a statement Wednesday.
Stock investors have looked for greater fiscal spending to arrest a slowdown that threatens to put the country’s 2024 target of about 5% growth out of reach. Banks including Morgan Stanley and HSBC Holdings Plc expect 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in stimulus, while Citigroup Inc. put the amount at 3 trillion yuan.
“It seems that the authorities are expressing, perhaps through NDRC’s press conference yesterday, a degree of discomfort with the market’s euphoria, partly due to their difficult experience with the retail-driven market turmoil in 2015,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier in Singapore. “It will be still important for them to put forward a concrete game plan for fighting deflation later this month in the NPC Standing Committee meeting.”
Holiday Spending
China’s government bonds rallied as investors returned to haven assets amid the slump in stocks, with 30-year futures jumping 0.8% and benchmark yields edging lower in the cash market.
Spending patterns during the Golden Week holiday suggest consumer sentiment remains muted despite some signs of stabilization after the barrage of stimulus.
Chinese tourists spent less during the week-long holiday that ended Monday than they did in the break before the pandemic. While travelers made 10.2% more trips during Golden Week than in 2019, spending only increased by 7.9%, according to data released by Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
While investors debate the fate of Chinese equities for the coming months, some global money managers are turning to selective stock-picking.
Louis Lau, a fund manager at Brandes Investment Partners based in San Diego, California, said it’s time to take profit in overbought sectors such as insurance, home appliances, EV batteries, EVs and autos. He sees value in industries such as internet, sportswear, Macau gaming, food and beverages and tourism.
“We are at a stage where stock selection becomes more and more important,” said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at abrdn Plc, speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview. “We are in a bull zone but there will be volatility. We maintain a long-term view on sectors like consumption, which is key to the economy in the long run.”