威胁把俄罗斯除名的SWIFT，凭啥这么牛？

华尔街见闻2022-02-25

考虑到俄罗斯在石油、天然气等紧缺且必备的能源产品上的重要地位，若美国按下SWIFT这枚“金融核按钮”，或会造成“伤敌一千，自损八百”的结局。现代战争中，最可怕但却最不可能按下的当属核按钮。在金融战中，这“大杀器”可能就是SWIFT。如今，SWIFT再度成博弈工具。当地时间2月24日，乌克兰外长库列巴呼吁针对俄罗斯关闭SWIFT国际结算系统。随后，美总统拜登虽未立即采取行动，但仍警告称俄罗斯移出...

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Comment（11）

Fattkhong
·2022-02-28
[無語]
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2
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haiwei183
·2022-02-28
look
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2
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Youn7276
·2022-02-28
Ok
Reply
5
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Tyliew
·2022-02-27
[暗中觀察]
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2
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Youn7276
·2022-02-27
Ok
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3
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Jamesong
·2022-02-26
可以試一試啊！
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3
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CZUP
·2022-02-26
123
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1
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Eclim
·2022-02-26
[微笑]
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3
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Tyliew
·2022-02-26
[驚訝]
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1
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带头大哥哥1
·2022-02-25
早在2005年的時候都說美國要奔潰了
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- Youn7276:
  Ok
  2022-02-27
  Reply
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里二外三
·2022-02-25
結尾的話不要當真，磚家都是假話連篇。
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～ 11 位英文字母和阿拉伯数字组成。对于普通老百姓，如果有跨境汇款的需要，就能很直观地感受到SWIFT代码的作用。当前，全球跨境支付系统主要以SWIFT（环球同业银行金融电讯协会）和CHIPS（纽约清算所银行同业支付系统）为核心。SWIFT 首席执行官 Javier Perez TassoSWIFT为何能成制裁大棒？尽管SWIFT是一个中立组织，但它也很难完全摆脱政治影响。按理讲，总部设在比利时布鲁萨尔的SWIFT系统应该受欧盟的主导，但在历史上，SWIFT曾多次沦为美国对他国发起金融制裁的工具。早在20世纪80年代，美国财政部就试图掌控SWIFT的数据库，但没有成功。“9·11”事件之后，美国的金融安全和情报组织借助反恐为名，逐步加强了对SWIFT系统的控制能力。2011年起，美国国务院正式开始对该系统的数据实行监控。至此，一旦SWIFT中某个协会的会员上了美国财政部的黑名单，他们就有很大风险被隔断与外界银行的金融往来，这是绝大多数企业、金融机构乃至国家都难以承受的打击。2012年美国联合欧洲升级对伊朗的金融制裁，直接将伊朗4家重要银行从SWIFT系统剔除，随后还威胁与伊朗有经济联系的欧盟成员国，导致伊朗损失了近一半的石油出口收入和近30%的对外贸易。2014年克里米亚事件后，美国从SWIFT系统剔除俄7家大型银行，导致约50万张信用卡和借记卡的支付功能被冻结，恐慌性挤兑现象频出。短期内，俄罗斯各大银行都受到了不同程度的冲击，大量商业活动陷入停滞。2015年3月，波兰外交部长在记者会上称，把俄罗斯逐出SWIFT系统是最严厉的制裁措施之一。他表示：“制裁的选项中有多种选择，切断同SWIFT系统的联系将是一件对各方都有损害的‘核武器'，是一项非常极端的措施。”“俄熊”的反击下，SWIFT还是“金融核按钮”吗？到2014年，包括俄央行在内的大多数金融机构都已接入SWIFT系统，与SWIFT系统建立了密切的联系。在经历了“SWIFT制裁”事件的痛苦后，俄罗斯人不得不仔细思考如何移出这把悬在头顶的“达摩克里斯之剑”。2015年，俄罗斯国际支付系统发行了第一批符合俄罗斯本国支付系统标准的银行卡“米尔卡”。随后，俄罗斯迅速建立了自己的支付系统(МИР) 和金融信息交换系统(СПФС)，从根本上奠定了俄罗斯去美元化的金融基础设施基础。事实上，如今SWIFT可能只是一个消息传递系统，有它，结算会方便很多，但没有它，交易是也是可能的，只不过稍显笨拙。同时，俄罗斯在“去美元化”的道路上也是不遗余力。2016年，俄央行行长纳比乌琳娜就把去美元化作为俄罗斯央行的年度任务之一；2018年，纳比乌琳娜将去美元化和税收激励结合了起来；2021年6月，俄罗斯开始国家福利基金的清零。此外，自1998年俄罗斯债务危机以来，俄罗斯政府还在积极降低外债。根据国际金融协会（Institute of International Finance）的数据，截至去年11月底，俄罗斯政府外债占比为20.5%，而2020年初为34%。目前，俄政府的大多数债务由本币债发行。组合拳下拉，俄罗斯国家金融风险较往昔已大大降低，在此背景下，美国有必要将俄罗斯踢出SWIFT吗？昨夜，美国宣布了对于俄罗斯制裁的细节：对两个主要的俄罗斯金融机构、规模约一万亿美元的资产进行制裁；对于几个俄罗斯寡头进行个人制裁。然而，值得注意的是，美国并没有把俄罗斯踢出SWIFT系统。美国乔治城大学名誉教授 Harley Balzer 认为，使用制裁将产生“寒蝉效应”，即在阻断了俄罗斯的交易的同时，也会阻止一些西方银行与俄罗斯的交易。在这个油价高企、天然气价格飙升、欧美各国通胀爆表的时代背景下，将俄罗斯从 SWIFT 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