Nvidia's Earnings Probably Won't Be Good Enough To Surprise The Market

Seeking Alpha11-18

SummaryNvidia is expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings growth of 84.7% and revenue growth of 83.3%, continuing its trend of outperforming guidance.Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock may not ...

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Merdeka1981
·11-18
This is the classic case of "I already gave u all everything u guys expected, what more do u want?" Sayang la if that's the case, it just goes to show how dependent we all are on news and strange expectations.
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Earnings Probably Won't Be Good Enough To Surprise The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-18 21:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738150-nvidias-earnings-wont-surprise-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia is expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings growth of 84.7% and revenue growth of 83.3%, continuing its trend of outperforming guidance.Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock may not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738150-nvidias-earnings-wont-surprise-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NVDA","symbol_name":"英伟达","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738150-nvidias-earnings-wont-surprise-market","article_id":"1114146297","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114146297","pubTimestamp":1731937800,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1728464409321","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryNvidia is expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings growth of 84.7% and revenue growth of 83.3%, continuing its trend of outperforming guidance.Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock may not rise post-results due to high implied volatility and potential market maker adjustments in options trading.Analysts' current revenue estimates for Q3 seem low, suggesting Nvidia might report higher-than-expected results and provide robust Q4 guidance.The options market anticipates an 8% price swing ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"translate_title":"英伟达的盈利可能不足以让市场感到惊讶","themeId":"ffe6e10e7e94c61aa380e0eee7ea20f1","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1},"content_text":"SummaryNvidia is expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings growth of 84.7% and revenue growth of 83.3%, continuing its trend of outperforming guidance.Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock may not rise post-results due to high implied volatility and potential market maker adjustments in options trading.Analysts' current revenue estimates for Q3 seem low, suggesting Nvidia might report higher-than-expected results and provide robust Q4 guidance.The options market anticipates an 8% price swing post-earnings, but high call delta indicates potential stock selling pressure once implied volatility drops.BING-JHEN HONGIt is the question everyone is asking themselves: will Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) beat its own guidance for the sixth quarter in a row by $2 billion and then guide the next quarter higher by $2 to $2.5 billion, again, for the sixth time?Nvidia will report results on November 20 and is expected to deliver another strong quarter of sales and earnings growth. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that the stock will rise following those results because, at least as of the time of this writing, it appears that the stock is in a similar position as it was last quarter when it dropped more than 15% over the subsequent four trading sessions.TradingViewCan It Surprise Anyone At This Point?The company is expected to report fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings grew 84.7% to $0.74 per share, while revenue increased by 83.3% to $33.2 billion, with adjusted gross margins of 75%. For the fourth quarter, analysts expect the company to provide revenue guidance of $37.0 billion and adjusted gross margins of 73.5%, with earnings of $0.82 per share.However, everyone probably already expects these results and better. The company has a history of beating its own guidance by almost $2 billion every quarter over the past five quarters.BloombergThe company also seems to be able to guide the next quarter higher by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. It has done this 5 quarters in a row, too. Therefore, it may be safe to assume that the company will report revenue for the current quarter in the $34.5 to $35 billion range, followed by revenue guidance of $36.5 to $37 billion. This would indicate that current analysts' revenue for the third quarter is too low, but fourth-quarter revenue estimates are just right. It is not exactly clear why analysts' estimates for the current quarter are so low when the pattern is so obvious.This probably means that, to no surprise, the company's revenue guidance for the fourth quarter would need to come in above $38.5 to break the current trend of beating by $2 billion and raising by $2 to $2.5 billion, which has taken place for five quarters in a row.NvidiaBullish As AlwaysAnyway, the options market, in typical fashion, is bullish on the stock following results and sees the stock's price rising or falling by 8%, which is equivalent to the market cap swinging by $279 billion, up or down. That is because the IV for the stock is relatively high for the options expiring on November 22 at around 90%. That implied volatility will likely continue to rise as we head into the company's results. However, once the company reports results and event risks pass, the IV will fall sharply like it does following results for all events and earnings.BloombergBut again, like last quarter, the call delta easily outweighs the put delta values, and so when the stock IV drops and premiums for both the puts and calls decline sharply, it will likely mean that market makers will need to reduce their hedges and have stock to sell.A market maker is short the call option, assuming a customer buys a call. To delta hedge their position, the market maker needs to go long Nvidia, whether by owning the stock or some kind of equivalent. So when the IV drops as it normally does, the value of the call and put premiums will decline sharply, and that means the market maker will need to adjust their position. So, in this case, since there are more open call positions, the market will need to reduce the amount of Nvidia it owns and bring stock for sale.The option positioning suggests that the stock may have a difficult time breaking above the $145 to $150 range.BloombergTechnicals Are WeakTechnically, the stock doesn't look great and appears to have formed a rising wedge pattern. Volume levels have been steadily declining, too, which is the hallmark of a rising wedge. Additionally, the relative strength index has declined, suggesting bearish momentum. A break of support at $139 probably sets the stage for the shares to return to $125 and potentially back to the origin at some point around $100.TradingViewSo yeah, maybe Nvidia will beat results and raise guidance, but will it be a surprise if they beat by $2 billion and raise by $2 to $2.5 billion for the sixth quarter in a row? Probably not.At 20 times sales 1-year forward sales, were you really expecting more?","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":372452463603792,"gmtCreate":1731939994701,"gmtModify":1731939999513,"author":{"id":"4102568791638160","authorId":"4102568791638160","name":"Merdeka1981","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/370fc16a4d1090b47fe92034808ebbdd","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4102568791638160","authorIdStr":"4102568791638160"},"htmlText":"This is the classic case of \"I already gave u all everything u guys expected, what more do u want?\" Sayang la if that's the case, it just goes to show how dependent we all are on news and strange expectations.","listText":"This is the classic case of \"I already gave u all everything u guys expected, what more do u want?\" Sayang la if that's the case, it just goes to show how dependent we all are on news and strange expectations.","text":"This is the classic case of \"I already gave u all everything u guys expected, what more do u want?\" Sayang la if that's the case, it just goes to show how dependent we all are on news and strange expectations.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372452463603792","repostId":1114146297,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114146297","pubTimestamp":1731937800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114146297?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-18 21:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Earnings Probably Won't Be Good Enough To Surprise The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114146297","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia is expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings growth of 84.7% and revenue growth of 83.3%, continuing its trend of outperforming guidance.Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock may not rise post-results due to high implied volatility and potential market maker adjustments in options trading.Analysts' current revenue estimates for Q3 seem low, suggesting Nvidia might report higher-than-expected results and provide robust Q4 guidance.The options market anticipates an 8% price swing ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1613158022\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia is expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings growth of 84.7% and revenue growth of 83.3%, continuing its trend of outperforming guidance.</p></li><li><p>Despite strong earnings, Nvidia&#39;s stock may not rise post-results due to high implied volatility and potential market maker adjustments in options trading.</p></li><li><p>Analysts&#39; current revenue estimates for Q3 seem low, suggesting Nvidia might report higher-than-expected results and provide robust Q4 guidance.</p></li><li><p>The options market anticipates an 8% price swing post-earnings, but high call delta indicates potential stock selling pressure once implied volatility drops.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"BING-JHEN HONG\" title=\"BING-JHEN HONG\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>BING-JHEN HONG</span></p><p>It is the question everyone is asking themselves: will Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) beat its own guidance for the sixth quarter in a row by $2 billion and then guide the next quarter higher by $2 to $2.5 billion, again, for the sixth time?</p><p>Nvidia will report results on November 20 and is expected to deliver another strong quarter of sales and earnings growth. Unfortunately, that doesn&#39;t mean that the stock will rise following those results because, at least as of the time of this writing, it appears that the stock is in a similar position as it was last quarter when it dropped more than 15% over the subsequent four trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2b0d4113c62a1fcde20ba40fd749fbd6\" alt=\"TradingView\" title=\"TradingView\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3921698096\">Can It Surprise Anyone At This Point?</h2><p>The company is expected to report fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings grew 84.7% to $0.74 per share, while revenue increased by 83.3% to $33.2 billion, with adjusted gross margins of 75%. For the fourth quarter, analysts expect the company to provide revenue guidance of $37.0 billion and adjusted gross margins of 73.5%, with earnings of $0.82 per share.</p><p>However, everyone probably already expects these results and better. The company has a history of beating its own guidance by almost $2 billion every quarter over the past five quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58cfc170b43b170f4c12252b67ca3cb0\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>The company also seems to be able to guide the next quarter higher by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. It has done this 5 quarters in a row, too. Therefore, it may be safe to assume that the company will report revenue for the current quarter in the $34.5 to $35 billion range, followed by revenue guidance of $36.5 to $37 billion. This would indicate that current analysts&#39; revenue for the third quarter is too low, but fourth-quarter revenue estimates are just right. It is not exactly clear why analysts&#39; estimates for the current quarter are so low when the pattern is so obvious.</p><p>This probably means that, to no surprise, the company&#39;s revenue guidance for the fourth quarter would need to come in above $38.5 to break the current trend of beating by $2 billion and raising by $2 to $2.5 billion, which has taken place for five quarters in a row.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/06895558104f93991104ad94d77ae143\" alt=\"Nvidia\" title=\"Nvidia\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"108\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1206350235\">Bullish As Always</h2><p>Anyway, the options market, in typical fashion, is bullish on the stock following results and sees the stock&#39;s price rising or falling by 8%, which is equivalent to the market cap swinging by $279 billion, up or down. That is because the IV for the stock is relatively high for the options expiring on November 22 at around 90%. That implied volatility will likely continue to rise as we head into the company&#39;s results. However, once the company reports results and event risks pass, the IV will fall sharply like it does following results for all events and earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/268e70ae12238df56de4eabb02af84ec\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>But again, like last quarter, the call delta easily outweighs the put delta values, and so when the stock IV drops and premiums for both the puts and calls decline sharply, it will likely mean that market makers will need to reduce their hedges and have stock to sell.</p><p>A market maker is short the call option, assuming a customer buys a call. To delta hedge their position, the market maker needs to go long Nvidia, whether by owning the stock or some kind of equivalent. So when the IV drops as it normally does, the value of the call and put premiums will decline sharply, and that means the market maker will need to adjust their position. So, in this case, since there are more open call positions, the market will need to reduce the amount of Nvidia it owns and bring stock for sale.</p><p>The option positioning suggests that the stock may have a difficult time breaking above the $145 to $150 range.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df3f1ddb8ba16609d144c354a0c853dc\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"197\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3802797208\">Technicals Are Weak</h2><p>Technically, the stock doesn&#39;t look great and appears to have formed a rising wedge pattern. Volume levels have been steadily declining, too, which is the hallmark of a rising wedge. Additionally, the relative strength index has declined, suggesting bearish momentum. A break of support at $139 probably sets the stage for the shares to return to $125 and potentially back to the origin at some point around $100.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ccf80608734e2d993b28f42e34fbad0c\" alt=\"TradingView\" title=\"TradingView\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><p>So yeah, maybe Nvidia will beat results and raise guidance, but will it be a surprise if they beat by $2 billion and raise by $2 to $2.5 billion for the sixth quarter in a row? Probably not.</p><p>At 20 times sales 1-year forward sales, were you really expecting more?</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Earnings Probably Won't Be Good Enough To Surprise The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Earnings Probably Won't Be Good Enough To Surprise The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-18 21:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738150-nvidias-earnings-wont-surprise-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia is expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings growth of 84.7% and revenue growth of 83.3%, continuing its trend of outperforming guidance.Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock may not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738150-nvidias-earnings-wont-surprise-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738150-nvidias-earnings-wont-surprise-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114146297","content_text":"SummaryNvidia is expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings growth of 84.7% and revenue growth of 83.3%, continuing its trend of outperforming guidance.Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock may not rise post-results due to high implied volatility and potential market maker adjustments in options trading.Analysts' current revenue estimates for Q3 seem low, suggesting Nvidia might report higher-than-expected results and provide robust Q4 guidance.The options market anticipates an 8% price swing post-earnings, but high call delta indicates potential stock selling pressure once implied volatility drops.BING-JHEN HONGIt is the question everyone is asking themselves: will Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) beat its own guidance for the sixth quarter in a row by $2 billion and then guide the next quarter higher by $2 to $2.5 billion, again, for the sixth time?Nvidia will report results on November 20 and is expected to deliver another strong quarter of sales and earnings growth. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that the stock will rise following those results because, at least as of the time of this writing, it appears that the stock is in a similar position as it was last quarter when it dropped more than 15% over the subsequent four trading sessions.TradingViewCan It Surprise Anyone At This Point?The company is expected to report fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings grew 84.7% to $0.74 per share, while revenue increased by 83.3% to $33.2 billion, with adjusted gross margins of 75%. For the fourth quarter, analysts expect the company to provide revenue guidance of $37.0 billion and adjusted gross margins of 73.5%, with earnings of $0.82 per share.However, everyone probably already expects these results and better. The company has a history of beating its own guidance by almost $2 billion every quarter over the past five quarters.BloombergThe company also seems to be able to guide the next quarter higher by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. It has done this 5 quarters in a row, too. Therefore, it may be safe to assume that the company will report revenue for the current quarter in the $34.5 to $35 billion range, followed by revenue guidance of $36.5 to $37 billion. This would indicate that current analysts' revenue for the third quarter is too low, but fourth-quarter revenue estimates are just right. It is not exactly clear why analysts' estimates for the current quarter are so low when the pattern is so obvious.This probably means that, to no surprise, the company's revenue guidance for the fourth quarter would need to come in above $38.5 to break the current trend of beating by $2 billion and raising by $2 to $2.5 billion, which has taken place for five quarters in a row.NvidiaBullish As AlwaysAnyway, the options market, in typical fashion, is bullish on the stock following results and sees the stock's price rising or falling by 8%, which is equivalent to the market cap swinging by $279 billion, up or down. That is because the IV for the stock is relatively high for the options expiring on November 22 at around 90%. That implied volatility will likely continue to rise as we head into the company's results. However, once the company reports results and event risks pass, the IV will fall sharply like it does following results for all events and earnings.BloombergBut again, like last quarter, the call delta easily outweighs the put delta values, and so when the stock IV drops and premiums for both the puts and calls decline sharply, it will likely mean that market makers will need to reduce their hedges and have stock to sell.A market maker is short the call option, assuming a customer buys a call. To delta hedge their position, the market maker needs to go long Nvidia, whether by owning the stock or some kind of equivalent. So when the IV drops as it normally does, the value of the call and put premiums will decline sharply, and that means the market maker will need to adjust their position. So, in this case, since there are more open call positions, the market will need to reduce the amount of Nvidia it owns and bring stock for sale.The option positioning suggests that the stock may have a difficult time breaking above the $145 to $150 range.BloombergTechnicals Are WeakTechnically, the stock doesn't look great and appears to have formed a rising wedge pattern. Volume levels have been steadily declining, too, which is the hallmark of a rising wedge. Additionally, the relative strength index has declined, suggesting bearish momentum. A break of support at $139 probably sets the stage for the shares to return to $125 and potentially back to the origin at some point around $100.TradingViewSo yeah, maybe Nvidia will beat results and raise guidance, but will it be a surprise if they beat by $2 billion and raise by $2 to $2.5 billion for the sixth quarter in a row? Probably not.At 20 times sales 1-year forward sales, were you really expecting more?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}