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Alibaba: The Case For Loading Up Is Here - Don't Wait Till It's Gone

seekingalpha2023-08-08

Robert Way China's leading e-commerce and cloud computing company, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), is scheduled to report its first-quarter or FQ1 earnings release for FY2024 on August 10 (...

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Investors are likely expecting a relatively tepid earnings performance from the e-commerce behemoth, given the spate of disappointing macroeconomic releases recently. Bloomberg spooked fears that Chinese producers and consumers could be mired in an unexpected deflation trap based on a recent report. Accordingly, \"July's trade data [indicated] a third consecutive month of declining exports and a notable drop in imports.\" Both releases came in below analysts' estimates, suggesting that the strength of China's economic recovery could be dissipating. Furthermore, China's upcoming CPI release is also expected to mark a decline, suggesting that the expected consumption growth inflection could be missing from Alibaba's upcoming earnings release. Investing sentiments have also turned more pessimistic, as \"overseas funds sold shares worth 7.6 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) through trading links with Hong Kong.\" The battered property market remains a cause of concern, given its critical role in China's economic recovery. As such, the initial boost investors received last week from the PBOC's (China's central bank) meeting with property developers could be under strain. Under PBOC's newly-appointed governor Pan Gongsheng, the PBOC \"engaged with executives from eight private companies\" recently. China's central bank highlighted its commitment to enhance \"funding support\" for its embattled property sector. However, some analysts cautioned that the meeting didn't unveil any \"substantial new funding support measures for the property and private sectors.\" As such, investors might not be encouraged to return aggressively to leading Chinese stocks like Alibaba, implying a lack of confidence in the recovery momentum of consumer spending. Coupled with the high youth unemployment rates, I assessed the execution risks on Alibaba's FQ1 earnings release have heightened. Notwithstanding the negative sentiments, I believe investors must remain focused on Alibaba's performance in the second half of the year, as the market is forward-looking. Alibaba remains a second-half growth inflection story. Therefore, Alibaba's upcoming earnings card should indicate that its revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth metrics bottomed out last quarter (ended March 31). As such, recent dip buyers likely anticipated further recovery in the quarter ended June 30. There are several ways to assess Alibaba's forward guidance. The Chinese government remains committed to achieving its 5% GDP growth for 2023. Economists' estimates have been lowered, moving closer to the government's official target. As such, I assessed that sufficient pessimism is likely reflected in Alibaba's forward projections. Also, while China's economy is still undergoing a highly challenging recovery, the increasingly positive overtures from the government suggest monetary and fiscal stimulus are anticipated. Hence, I believe recent buying sentiments in BABA likely indicate that investors are accumulating based on these expectations. With China's economy still not performing well enough in the first half, the window to attaining its 5% full-year GDP growth target is narrowing, indicating that a major stimulus announcement could happen sooner than later. However, investors shouldn't wait until such a possible announcement first, as the risk/reward profile could be less attractive at that point. With BABA still attractively priced (corroborated by Seeking Alpha Quant's \"B\" valuation grade), I remain confident in the appeal of the current buy levels. BABA price chart (weekly) (TradingView) BABA has outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) since my May update. It remains well below its $120 critical resistance level, suggesting attractive opportunities for buyers to accumulate at the current zone. Also, I assessed that BABA's market structure of higher-lows is constructive. With BABA moving closer to re-testing its $105 zone, it should provide us more confidence in improved buying sentiments moving ahead if a decisive breakout higher is successful. That should open up further upside toward the $120 level before a subsequent consolidation zone. With Alibaba slated to release its scorecard soon, I'm confident that investors should take advantage of its pre-earnings consolidation to buy more shares before a possible further recovery. Rating: Maintain Strong Buy. Please note that a Buy rating is equivalent to a Bullish or Market Outperform rating.  Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Please always apply independent thinking and note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified. We Want To Hear From You Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn’t? Agree or disagree? Comment below with the aim of helping everyone in the community to learn better!  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}