Is the US CPI data pointing to higher rates?

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Is the US CPI data pointing to higher rates?

The Australian Financial Review2023-09-14

August’s headline and core CPI inflation rates increased 0.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent month-over-month. They rose 3.7 per cent and 4.3 per cent year-over-year.First Trust Advisors: “The Federal ...

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They rose 3.7 per cent and 4.3 per cent year-over-year.First Trust Advisors: “The Federal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/is-the-us-cpi-data-pointing-to-higher-rates-20230914-p5e4ih\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"afr_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the US CPI data pointing to higher rates?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the US CPI data pointing to higher rates?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-14 01:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/is-the-us-cpi-data-pointing-to-higher-rates-20230914-p5e4ih><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>August’s headline and core CPI inflation rates increased 0.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent month-over-month. They rose 3.7 per cent and 4.3 per cent year-over-year.First Trust Advisors: “The Federal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/is-the-us-cpi-data-pointing-to-higher-rates-20230914-p5e4ih\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4512","symbol_name":"苹果概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/is-the-us-cpi-data-pointing-to-higher-rates-20230914-p5e4ih","article_id":"2367544617","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2367544617","pubTimestamp":1694627100,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"afr_stock","name":"The Australian Financial Review"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"August’s headline and core CPI inflation rates increased 0.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent month-over-month. 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They rose 3.7 per cent and 4.3 per cent year-over-year.First Trust Advisors: “The Federal Reserve may have gained some traction against inflation, but the inflation problem is far from finished ... We continue to believe a recession is on the way. Equity investors should remain vigilant as we navigate these unprecedented times.”Strategas: “The monthly trend in core inflation has been encouraging, but August was a bit too high for comfort. The US labour market does not appear to have rolled over enough to remove concerns about wage inflation yet (which matters for services inflation), despite some small cracks appearing.“Bottom line: the Fed can likely pause in September given the improving core inflation trajectory in the past several months. Still, since inflation has historically come in multiple waves, it’s too early to consider Fed cuts at this stage.”Capital Economics: ”Overall, we don’t expect the S&P 500 to make more headway between now and the end of 2023, even if, as we forecast, core inflation continues to fall. On the contrary, we think the index will drop back slightly. This is because we foresee a paring back of expectations for EPS as the economy reels a bit in the final months of the year, and don’t expect the Fed to start easing until the first half of 2024.“However, we project that the US stock market will make hay next year, as a recovering economy and enthusiasm for AI drive up expected EPS, while looser Fed policy and growing appetite for risk boost its valuation.”TD Securities: “In our view, today’s CPI report should not make a meaningful difference for Fed officials ahead of the September FOMC meeting. The Fed is unlikely to change structural policy views on a single data point, especially coming off two very soft CPI readings in June-July. However, it does keep alive the odds of an additional rate increase for the November/December meetings, particularly if we see a follow-through of accelerating core inflation in the September CPI report. August PCE data released at the end of the month will be important as well for setting expectations ahead of the November FOMC meeting.”Wells Fargo: “On a three-month annualised basis, CPI excluding food and energy has fallen to 2.4 per cent—the slowest pace since March 2021. Even the more backward-looking 12-month change, at 4.4 per cent, has eased to nearly a two-year low. The downward trend in inflation has also broadened out, with fewer categories seeing prices rise in excess of 2 per cent and more seeing prices decline outright.”“The recent slowdown in inflation should be enough to keep the FOMC from hiking further this cycle, but with the path back to 2 per cent likely to hold some further twists and turns, we expect rate cuts to be still be a ways out.”AdvertisementMorgan Stanley: “While the August CPI report was not as soft as expected, largely due to airfares and less deflation on motor vehicles, we are continuing to see the disinflationary process in core CPI. After 6 months of 0.4 per centM prints, data the past three months show a step down in the pace of inflation. The 3-month annualised pace for core CPI moved from 3.1 per cent to 2.4 per cent. We think the Fed will keep rates on hold at the September FOMC meeting next week and the data following the September meeting will keep the Fed from hiking further.“Incorporating inputs from CPI, we preliminarily forecast core PCE inflation increased 0.15 per centM in August vs. 0.22 per cent in July, while headline is forecasted at 0.39 per centM vs. 0.21 per cent prior. Core services ex housing translation points to 0.16 per centM in August vs. 0.46 per centM prior, lower than CPI given higher airfares in the CPI print. We will finalise our forecast tomorrow with the release of PPI for August.”Oxford Economics: “We expect Fed officials to look past the rise in headline CPI, but the uptick in the core CPI is reminder that the risks remain tilted toward additional rate hikes. However, we expect that a slowing economy, looser labor market conditions and moderating wage growth will support a further deceleration in inflation, allowing the Fed to keep policy steady until it begins to gradually cut rates in the mid-2024.”Comerica Bank’s Bill Adams: “The combination of slower core inflation, slower job growth, and an uptick in the unemployment rate in August will almost certainly be enough for the Fed to hold interest rates unchanged at their decision next [week] rather than making another hike.“But Comerica sees a final quarter percentage point hike of the cycle at the November 1 decision as slightly more likely than not, given the resilience of economic growth as well as the recent uptick in prices of oil and house price indexes.”Santander’s Stephen Stanley: “These numbers are not a game-changer, but they do offer a reminder that inflation is far from dead. The lower core CPI figures over the past three months give the Fed breathing room, and officials have signalled that they intend to take advantage of that and skip the September meeting.”“I have one last rate hike on November 1, but, of course, the decision will be data dependent (that is, the Fed could be done or could have to raise rates multiple times from here, depending on how the economy evolves). Today’s CPI report likely does not change that thought process.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}